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This week, the Nasdaq dropped 3.4%, so I will probably be staying up late again next week.
There are just three key points: the October CPI at 9:30 PM on Tuesday, the earnings reports of Cisco and Applied Materials after the market closes on Thursday, and then Nvidia's earnings on 11/17, with options implied volatility around ±10.5%.
Last week's nonfarm payrolls pushed up the December rate hike expectations again. If the CPI comes in hotter, tech stocks might face another wave of pressure. My approach: no adding positions before the data, wait for the CPI to settle before deciding.
Are you holding on next week, or going flat to watch?
$NVDA $QQQ
#USStocks #USStocksLostOver2TrillionOvernightSeveralHedgeFundsFaceLiquidation
Just my personal view, not advice$ONE Observation: Over 70% surge in 24 hours, biggest risk is migration hype
Current price of ONE is about 0.001835, up approximately 71.8% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $4.07 million, intraday high at 0.001969 and low at 0.001064
First, the biggest risk: the old chain has been shut down, but the price is still being driven by the shutdown narrative. The Block reported that Harmony sunsetted its L1 citing security threats and migrated to Ethereum ERC-20, with the mainnet expected to stop producing blocks around September 10
On November 18, the official explorer will also be permanently closed. TokenPost stated that after explorer.harmony.one shuts down, migrate.country will only retain records from 2025 onward, so data before 2025 needs to be exported in advance
Currently, about $4 million in trading volume supports the over 70% price increase. Liquidity is thin and the pullback is quick. The rise is due to speculative aftershocks of the migration, not new revenue or new product launches BTC holding above 75,000 is just the beginning! The truly dangerous signals have been overlooked by many.
The crypto market is undergoing a risk appetite contraction. On November 6, BTC hit a low of 74,780 USD, with ETH simultaneously approaching 2,200 USD. In the past 24 hours, about 1.05 billion USD worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with long positions accounting for about 88%, indicating that this round of decline is not only due to spot selling but also concentrated leverage clearing.
More worrisome is the capital side. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about 412 million USD on the same day (some fund data is still incomplete), marking two consecutive days of net outflows. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure investment returns and data center regulatory expectations triggered a sell-off in tech stocks, causing a clear correlation between the Nasdaq and crypto assets.
ETH faces dual pressure: on November 6, the spot ETH ETF had a net outflow close to 100 million USD, coupled with the delay of the Glamsterdam upgrade test, putting short-term market confidence under pressure.
My judgment: key levels to watch are 75,000 USD for BTC and 2,200 USD for ETH. Holding support only indicates temporary relief of selling pressure; the real reversal signal should be ETF capital inflows, strengthened spot buying, and price reclaiming key resistance. Until the capital returns, rebounds should still be approached with caution. $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 NVIDIA $NVDA's upcoming earnings report will be crucial. Whether AI-related concepts can support such a large hardware market will face the ultimate test. From another perspective, the US stock market needs these tech stocks to hold the front line.
My judgment is that NVIDIA's earnings report this time will most likely exceed expectations, but the subsequent stock price is uncertain. The guidance for the next quarter's performance is very important.
NVIDIA is expected to release its fiscal year 2027 third-quarter earnings report after the US market closes on November 17. Currently, Wall Street consensus expects revenue of about $108.98 billion and adjusted earnings per share of about $2.47, with year-over-year growth rates around 90%.
I am optimistic about exceeding expectations for three main reasons.
First, there is no obvious sign of cooling in AI computing power demand for now. Cloud computing giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to invest in AI infrastructure, and NVIDIA's data center business remains the core growth engine.
Second, last quarter's data already gave a strong signal. Revenue was $96.221 billion, up 106% year-over-year, with data center revenue reaching $89 billion and gross margin maintained at 75%.
Third, Blackwell continues to scale up, and the next-generation Vera Rubin platform is also advancing toward mass production. Product iteration remains an important advantage for NVIDIA.
What do you think? Can NVIDIA continue to break Wall Street expectations this time, or has the AI rally already priced in this earnings report in advance?
#英伟达拟以129.3亿美元收购HuggingFace 70% of $BTC liquidations in the past 24 hours were long positions ≠ the big drop is still ahead
According to CoinGlass at 8 PM Beijing time tonight, the top 20 liquidated assets in the past 24 hours totaled $138 million, with longs accounting for 72.81%.
BTC alone liquidated $51.82 million, 80% of which were longs.
Most of these longs were wiped out by that spike last night.
On the night when the US October non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, OKEx perpetual contracts plunged from 76351 to 74800.
In the following 20 hours, the price fluctuated between 75370 and 76220, now around 75960.
The funding rate is 0.0037%, almost zero.
After the clustered leveraged longs at one price level were liquidated, neither side is particularly crowded on the exchange.
Where it goes next depends on who adds leverage back first, not on the $50 million-plus already liquidated.Is Bitcoin really suitable for dollar-cost averaging?
First, the conclusion: it's not that it's unsuitable, but most people can't endure until the day it becomes suitable.
Long-term dollar-cost averaging returns are indeed impressive: starting from 2015, investing $100 monthly, by May 2026 it would be about $630,000, a return of +4,515%. Even starting from the 2021 peak, dollar-cost averaging still outperforms lump-sum investment.
But behind these attractive numbers lies extreme drawdown: this strategy had a maximum drawdown of -76.72% in 2022, and historically there have been deep drops of 86%, 84%, and 77%. The "smile curve" theory of dollar-cost averaging holds, but in practice, it requires you to keep buying even when your account is halved repeatedly.
Moreover, in short cycles, lump-sum investment often outperforms dollar-cost averaging; the advantage of dollar-cost averaging only appears after fully traversing a complete bull and bear cycle. Bitcoin is a strong cyclical asset, and mechanical dollar-cost averaging does not significantly reduce unrealized losses during bear markets.
Therefore, it only suits two types of people: those with spare money that can span entire bull and bear cycles, and those psychologically able to endure over 70% unrealized losses without breaking discipline.
In short: the contradiction of dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin is not about "whether it can make money," but about "whether you are still there before dawn." $BTC Bitcoin recent breakdown below the $76K 50-week EMA has put the market under pressure.
Around $1.1B in long liquidations and ETF outflows have added to the selling pressure, with $73K and $68K now key downside levels.
However, historical data offers another perspective: 5 of 9 similar EMA breakdowns since 2019 saw $BTC trading higher 12 weeks later.
This could be a leverage flush rather than the start of a deeper bear market. The weekly close and spot ETF flows deserve close attention. Two honest truths about regulation: The CLARITY Act's progress being stalled does not mean the direction has changed. Compliance is an issue both US parties are competing over; a one-quarter delay in scheduling is a different matter from this. What really deserves attention is the 401(k) rule entering final review—that is the part that could bring long-term incremental funds to BTC. Once that channel opens, the demand structure for mainstream coins will be completely different from the past two years. So my approach is to separate them: in the short term, act only according to current sentiment and capital flow, and don't use long-term policy narratives to hold current positions; in the mid-term, focus research on the rule texts and the progress of institutional access—these things rely on clause implementation, not slogans. Before policy news is officially implemented, the market usually falls first out of caution; after the drop, look back—often it's just a change in the timeline, not the logic. Do you now treat regulation as a risk or as a catalyst? #美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 $BTC Continuous net outflows from ETFs, why hasn't BTC slowed down?
I'm more concerned about the divergence between capital and price: institutional channels are flowing out, but the market temporarily holds steady, so it can't be directly considered bullish.
According to Farside data, on November 6, US spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of $411.9 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflows; the cumulative outflow this week is about $1.3 billion.
$BTC is around $76,104, up 0.33% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of $75,790; open interest across 5 exchanges is about $17.17 billion, with an 8-hour funding rate of +0.0017%. The price hasn't dropped, but that doesn't mean the ETF selling pressure has been offset by new buying.
$ETH is around $2,247, up 0.37%, with an intraday low of $2,238.7; open interest is about $11.76 billion, funding rate +0.0056%. Relatively stronger, but with higher funding rates, meaning higher long position costs.
Looking horizontally, ETH is more resilient, while BTC bears more direct ETF flow pressure; a positive funding rate does not equal an increase in net longs.
First, let's see if BTC can hold $75,790, then observe whether ETF outflows narrow. If large outflows continue and the intraday low is broken, the divergence may turn into selling pressure.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Reuters’ report of an $11B initial OpenAI funding tranche at roughly a $1.25T valuation, below earlier targets, puts a useful constraint on the AI financing story. Capital is still arriving, but the simultaneous infrastructure borrowing by major tech groups suggests investors will increasingly test whether funding scale can keep outrunning valuation discipline.
#OpenAI11BFunding "Smart Money Influencer Weekly Review" Issue 16 · MANSOOR, an influencer who only trades gold, missed three trades in a row that night, but six days later made one trade that returned six times the profit
Losing money on your own trades? It's not that you're not trying hard enough, you just lack a reliable reference. Every week, we help you evaluate well-known influencers across the internet, with real performance and data to back it up.
On the night of October 26 at 10 PM, MANSOOR placed a short gold trade but hit the stop loss within half an hour. That day, he had three consecutive trades, none of which lasted past the next day. In the end, he wrote a line himself: "Lost three portions today."
But if you stopped following him that night, you'd have missed the two most profitable trades. In half a month, he issued twenty signals, and nineteen of them were entries. Starting with 10,000 yuan and risking only 1% of principal per trade, it grew to 11,400 yuan, a 14% increase. The trade on November 2 went from 3894 to 3960, and the one on November 3 was similar—both trades returned over six times the risk.
He doesn't win often, but one win covers several losses. He only trades gold, one trade every one to two days, with stop losses set at around a dozen dollars, no adding to positions or averaging down. Targets are set far away, with risk multiples from three to fifteen times. He will call to move stop to breakeven or close half first—you have to follow his instructions.
Suitable for those who can check their phone twice a day and accept being wrong six times out of ten; if you want every trade to be right, don't follow him.
Overall, this person's trades are worth following. Entries are well-timed, and profits are substantial when winning. He doesn't need every trade to be right, just not to exit too early when winning.
Signals from many influencers are synchronized to you in real time. What is public is just the tip of the iceberg.Nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected, but crypto prices did not weaken
This nonfarm report far exceeded expectations, yet crypto prices did not reverse accordingly, an interesting contrast.
October added 165,000 nonfarm jobs, well above the expected 65,000, with unemployment dropping to 4.1%; the market has pushed December rate hike bets close to 80%.
$BTC around $76,104, +0.33% in 24 hours, daily low at 75,790; open interest across 5 exchanges about $17.17 billion, 8-hour funding rate +0.0017%. Price is stable, funding rate low, currently no sign of leveraged long chasing.
$ETH around $2,247, +0.37%, daily low at 2,238.7; open interest about $11.76 billion, funding rate +0.0056%. Performance slightly stronger, but position cost higher than BTC, still needs spot support.
$SOL around $90.17, +0.03%, daily low at 89.76; open interest about $1.94 billion, funding rate +0.0051%. Elasticity is weak, risk appetite has not expanded.
ETH is strongest, SOL weakest, all three coins have small gains. If US Treasury yields continue to rise and BTC falls below 75,790, hawkish pressure should be guarded against; only breaking above 76,142 with spot volume increase can be considered a true hold.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Micron at $692, are you scared away?
Falling from 1255 to 692, halving in just 5 months—everyone is shouting "AI bubble burst, memory cycle peaked." Just last Friday, a high-volume bullish candle rebounded 5%, RSI dropped to the 30 oversold zone, and the P/E ratio compressed to 3.7x. So is this wave a "panic sell-off at the peak of the cycle stocks" or "a good company being emotionally oversold"?
Let's look at the surface first: bad news hit the stock, but earnings are exploding.
Down over 30% in the past month, down 22% in the past week, mid-November saw the semiconductor sector collectively dive, and Micron once plunged 17.5% in a single day. Everyone is blaming: AI capital expenditure cooling, Taiwan factory shutdowns, policy changes after elections.
But if you glance back at the earnings report: FY2026 revenue $133.2 billion, up 256% year-over-year; gross margin 86%; Q4 quarterly revenue $54.2 billion, up 379% year-over-year. Earnings grew 2.5 times, stock price dropped 45%—the market isn’t pricing the present, it’s pricing fear.
First thing: everyone is focused on "AI capital expenditure slowdown" but ignoring that memory is selling the shovels.
Micron doesn’t make AI chips; it sells HBM memory—every NVIDIA GPU needs several Micron HBMs plugged in.
Whether data centers get built is up to cloud providers; but as long as AI runs, memory will always be in shortage. Multiple institutions judge: the memory price upcycle will last at least until 2027 or even the first half of 2028.
US election worries, Taiwan factory labor disputes—these are "news," not "fundamentals."
The pits created by news are often where smart money picks up chips.
Second thing: a 3.7x P/E ratio, and you’re telling me it’s a bubble?
Micron’s current forward P/E is only 3.7-4x. What does that mean?
A company with revenue up 256% year-over-year, 86% gross margin, and still buying back shares, the market is only willing to give it less than 4 times forward earnings.
The market has already priced in "AI capital expenditure halving + memory price collapse + intensified competition." As long as any one of these doesn’t happen, this valuation is a joke.
Moreover, starting December, Micron can resume large-scale buybacks, customer strategic agreements cover a significant revenue share, and it has received a large amount of prepayments—order visibility is solid, not just wishful thinking.
Third thing: technicals tell you it’s struggling in the oversold zone.
Weekly chart: from the June high of 1255, a descending channel formed, currently a mid-term correction.
Daily chart: after consecutive big bearish candles, Friday saw a high-volume bullish candle, but moving averages are still bearish (EMA20/50/200 all pressing from above).
Daily RSI dropped near or below 30—clear demand for an oversold rebound.
Support: 670-680 (intraday low) → 650-660 (channel lower edge) → 600 (extreme)
Resistance: 710-725 (rebound high) → 750 → 850+
Short-term oversold rebound is expected, but don’t mistake the rebound for a bull market before the trend reverses.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
FY2026 revenue up 256%, gross margin 86%, explosive earnings
Forward P/E only 3.7-4x, valuation extremely compressed
Memory cycle extends to 2027-2028, HBM supply-demand tight
Buybacks resume in December + customer prepayments, strong visibility
RSI oversold, 5% volume rebound on Friday
On the other side:
45% drop from ATH, trend still bearish
Post-election uncertainty in data center approvals/energy/trade policies
Taiwan Fab 11E labor disputes, production execution risks
Samsung/SK Hynix HBM competition intensifies
Break below 650, channel target revised down to 600 or lower
Trading strategy
Short-term traders (1-5 days):
Don’t chase highs. Wait for a pullback to 680-670 to stabilize with volume before lightly going long, stop loss below 660, target 710-725 to take half profits. If volume breaks below 670, flip to light short targeting 650, stop loss 690. Leverage should not exceed 5-10x; this thing is more volatile than you think.
Swing traders (1-4 weeks):
Bull plan: hold above 650 + add on break above 720, target 850-900, stop loss 620. Bear plan: confirm break below 650, target 600-550, stop loss 680.
Long-term view:
Build positions gradually below 650, spot or low leverage. If fundamentals don’t worsen (next quarter guidance + memory prices), hold with a target above 1000. An AI core asset at 3.7x P/E, time is on your side.
Micron now is like NVIDIA in 2022—
99% of people thought "semiconductor cycle peaked, AI is a scam," but it went from 150 to over 1000.
$BTC $ETH $MU #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
Yesterday, the US stock market experienced a thrilling session.
After the previous round of collective sell-off, tech stocks finally saw a rebound, and market sentiment seemed to ease.
But one data point is worth noting: the Nasdaq weekly chart still fell about 3.4%.
What does this mean?
I believe the biggest risk now is not that the market will continue to fall, but the rebound illusion created for investors after the crash.
Especially in the semiconductor sector.
NVIDIA, SanDisk, and other AI industry chain stocks have already seen considerable gains. Once the market starts to reprice tech stock valuations, the capital outflow could be faster than expected.
Of course, a technical rebound after a crash is normal, but a rebound and a reversal are two different things.
Next, I am paying more attention to three signals:
Can the Nasdaq regain and hold key levels?
Can the semiconductor sector attract capital inflows again?
Can trading volume continue to expand during the rebound?
If this is just short-covering after the decline, then this rebound might only be the start of the next wave of volatility.
Personal view: No rush to chase the rally or bottom-fish now. Let's first see if the market can prove itself.$CT just finished scraping the last bit of cold rice, seeing CT continuously pulling big bullish candles, I instinctively wanted to short it, but after glancing at the data below, I forced myself to hold back!
【Hardcore Review】
From the deep pit at 0.114 with a V-shaped reversal, the 1-hour MACD shows a high-level golden cross, and the red bars keep expanding, indicating extremely aggressive bulls. But now the price has reached the resistance zone of the previous dense trading area, with heavy trapped positions above.
The most critical is the chip data: the bulls' proportion has directly soared to 64.98%, with a long-short ratio of 1.86! A bunch of retail investors see the rise and are blindly chasing the highs. The manipulative whales would never kindly let these 70% profit; most likely, they will push it up sharply again to blow out the shorts, lure the bulls in, and then reverse to smash the market.
【My Trading Rule】
At this position, the risk-reward ratio is extremely poor. I absolutely will not chase the highs nor blindly try to top-fish on the left side. I patiently wait for confirmation of stagnation at the upper resistance, and when a clear top pattern appears on the right side, I will then follow the trend to short and take the most certain pullback profits.
Don't catch the retail investors' flying knives; wait for the main force to put the noose around their necks themselves.The door to retirement accounts has moved forward half a step—but it’s not open yet.
The U.S. Department of Labor has sent the final rule allowing alternative assets (including crypto) into 401(k) plans to the White House OIRA for review (registration around 11/5–11/6). The core is to provide fiduciaries with a procedural safe harbor: performance, fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmarks, complexity—following the process can reduce litigation risk.
The key point: approval ≠ BTC appearing immediately on every 401(k) menu, nor ≠ mandatory listing, nor ≠ randomly adding altcoins. More likely, ETFs or managed products will appear first. The stance: media + OIRA process disclosure; policy progress ≠ market directive. What type of product do you think will appear first once the door truly opens? Discuss in the comments.
$BTC $ETH #AI Giant Financing Watch: OpenAI Completes $11 Billion Financing, Tech Companies Continue Bond Issuance Wave
The boss has something to say
I came across the news about OpenAI's financing, and the first thing I looked at was the numbers comparison: Reuters reported that OpenAI's first tranche delivered $11 billion, with a valuation of about 1.25 trillion, lower than the previously discussed target; the community reminded that the original plan was $30 billion. SoftBank and UAE's MGX participated, and the UAE consortium is expected to become the largest investor. On the other hand, Microsoft and Meta together issued $40 billion in bonds, Oracle raised another $20 billion, all burning money for AI infrastructure.
My interpretation is: this is the financial reality of the AI bubble—primary market demand is weakening, OpenAI's financing amount was cut to one-third of the original plan, and the valuation was revised down from 2 trillion; meanwhile, the secondary bond issuance wave is accelerating, SoftBank is betting on OpenAI with junk bonds yielding 10%, and CDS rose to 432 basis points. Money is still flowing into AI, but the structure has changed: from equity financing to debt financing, shifting risk from investors to creditors. For the crypto circle, this is another gauge of AI risk appetite, moving in the same direction as BTC in the short term but not directly driving it.
BTC current price is about 74,800, sideways on Saturday. My approach: 75,000 remains resistance, looking down to 73,000; I listen to this kind of financing news but keep my position unchanged. Waiting for Monday's US stock market open and continuous positive ETF net inflows before considering adding positions.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, everyone please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $ZEC There was a piece of data I had to read twice to fully grasp: Bitcoin mining difficulty hasn't returned to its historical peak for 374 days, the longest stretch ever, even longer than the period after the 2011 crash.
To put it simply, a drop in difficulty means miners have shut down their machines. In other words, throughout this year, some have been quietly pulling the plug.
But looking at it from another angle, those still mining have effectively diluted their costs. Miners who shut down when difficulty dropped to 124.93T in June are probably kicking themselves now.
It's said that on November 13, difficulty will drop another 3.7%, marking yet another round of elimination. The harsh reality in $BTC mining is not about who earns more, but who has cheaper electricity.A little-noticed fact: Bitcoin mining difficulty has remained below the peak of 155.97T on October 29, 2025, for 374 consecutive days, setting a new historical record. This surpasses the 364 days after the 2011 crash and also exceeds the 253 days following China's mining ban in 2021.
Let's look at the data. In mid-June 2026, difficulty dropped to 124.93T, about 20% below the peak; it rebounded to 148.36T in October; Mempool.space expects another drop of about 3.7% around November 13.
The mechanism is not complicated. Difficulty follows hash rate: when prices are poor, miners shut down, hash rate exits, difficulty adjusts downward, and the remaining miners' unit costs are diluted. So the reason difficulty hasn't returned to the peak for a long time is essentially that this cycle lacks enough new hash power willing to enter at the old prices.
Economist Saifedean Ammous says this duration surpasses 95% of the price retracements after 2011 and the period of China's mining ban, representing a new world for Bitcoin mining. Translated into trading terms: the miner side has already cleared a round, and the marginal selling pressure of $BTC is smaller than in 2021.
But a drop in difficulty does not equal bullishness. It only indicates that the supply side is no longer worsening; the direction still depends on the demand side. Worth watching is: after the 3.7% drop on November 13, if the hash rate still doesn't return, then miners have truly accepted it.The stronger the non-farm payrolls, the more dangerous BTC becomes? What the market truly fears is a reversal in interest rate expectations
US October non-farm payrolls delivered better-than-expected results: 165,000 new jobs added, far above the expected 65,000; unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. More notably, August and September employment data were revised upward by a total of 84,000.
This means the US labor market remains resilient, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to continue tightening policy. After the non-farm payroll release, market bets on a December rate hike rose to about 80%, the dollar strengthened, and US Treasury yields climbed.
For BTC and ETH, the pressure is not just from the data itself but from the market repricing: rate cut expectations pushed back, dollar liquidity tightening, and risk asset valuations under pressure. BTC briefly dipped to $74,800, and ETH weakened in tandem.
However, it is important to note that strong non-farm payrolls do not mean a rate hike is set in stone. Subsequent inflation data and Federal Reserve statements will still change expectations. In the short term, focus on the dollar, US Treasury yields, and BTC support around $74,000; do not rashly bottom-fish based solely on overselling before the trend stabilizes. $BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 BTC is at 76000, ETH stuck at 2242, my view hasn't changed: no rush to enter the market.
Candlestick charts can depict a bottoming pattern, but funding rates reveal the true sentiment. A genuine reversal requires crowded shorts, deeply negative funding rates, panic sellers handing over chips, and a short squeeze with enough momentum. Currently, funding rates are mildly positive, neither bulls nor bears are cornered, no capitulation, no extreme panic, the market is just lukewarm.
This is not the bottom, just a breather in a prolonged downtrend.
Bottoms are always the result of chip battles, when bulls' stop losses are repeatedly harvested and bears' confidence swells and crowds together, funding rates turn deep red, and the fuel for a rebound is ready. Without enough sell-off to clear the market, even a pull-up is just a muted pulse.
The biggest taboo in bottom fishing is rushing in. Those who run fast mostly catch falling knives; those who stay patient have a chance to get chips with good cost-performance. I'd rather quietly observe from the sidelines than exhaust all my bullets in a downtrend.
The market won't reward those eager to bottom fish but will severely punish those heavily positioned halfway down the slope.
Wait for a clear signal from the funding rates before making a move; it's never too late.
No rush, keep waiting.
⚠️ Information shared is not investment advice
$BTC $ETH SNDK has been hammered for several days in a row, and it surprisingly didn't stop over the weekend, which is a bit heartbreaking to watch. With such a drop, is it just an emotional flood, or is someone quietly accumulating chips? What I'm focusing on is not the bearish candlestick itself, but the fact that the trading volume has shrunk to be as "small" as the price, showing a volume-price divergence at the low level. This pattern usually indicates that selling pressure is easing, fewer people are willing to sell, but the buying side hasn't rushed to show strength either, which is a typical late-stage emotional phase. The problem is, the continued hammering over the weekend is likely not spot market sentiment, but a liquidity test during the thinnest period, where sparse order books allow a few trades to push the price down ugly. What the market is actually trading now is not whether SNDK as a company is good or not, but "whether the most fragile positions can still hold." Once this expectation is priced in early, Monday's opening reaction will be more honest than the weekend's candlesticks. The bullish path is: volume continues to shrink, the low-level divergence holds, and after the passive selling pressure over the weekend is digested, the price has a chance to first recover above psychological levels, with sentiment warming up to help small-cap stocks in the same sector catch a breather. The bearish risk is also clear: if the weekend's sell-off is accompanied by volume expansion, it means it's not just a shakeout but real selling, then the low-level divergence is a false signal, and Monday may see a further drop, with risk appetite shrinking from individual tokens back to mainstream coins, delaying the overall rebound rhythm of altcoins. If BTC and ETH remain stable over the weekend, the sharp drop in single tokens like SNDK is more likely a localized event rather than a shift in overall risk appetite; conversely, if mainstream coins also weaken together, thenIf you want to bottom-fish $xKORU, Ajian's advice is to hold off for now. KOSPI closed down 6.02% on Friday despite a 20-minute trading halt, Samsung $SAMSUNG dropped 6.35%, Hynix $xSKHY fell 10.44%, and foreign investors sold off 2.8 trillion KRW in a single day. So the current situation is that no one can prove the bottom is in, and the premise of bottom-fishing is that the bottom has been reached. Even if you can't buy at the lowest point, at least don't catch a falling knife halfway up the slope 🤧$NET
Cloudflare's growth accelerates, but why is the gross margin more worth questioning?
Cloudflare's Q3 revenue grew 39% year-over-year, but GAAP gross margin dropped from 74.0% in the same period last year to 71.2%. There is simultaneous pressure from demand expansion and the cost of providing services.
AI-related traffic is increasing, and only when charging capability matches usage costs will economic value be enhanced. Revenue exceeding expectations does not necessarily bring an equivalent improvement in free cash flow.
I focus on unit computing cost, customer expansion, and cash flow rate. If growth is maintained and gross margin stabilizes, quality evaluation can be improved; if usage increases but gross margin declines, the market may continue to compress valuations for high-speed growth.Just caught a glimpse of the order book, and the BTC line suddenly went quiet, like someone turned down the volume knob 🌙 This kind of quietness—is it a breather or the end of the show? In the past 24 hours, net capital inflow was about 1308 BTC, a nearly 195% surge compared to the previous day, and 256% higher than a week ago. The buying pressure is indeed returning, but what's more interesting is another set of numbers: liquidation amount around $41.64 million, 3152 liquidations, a sharp drop of 79% from the previous day, and 56% less than seven days ago. Leverage is being rapidly squeezed out, and volatility is contracting accordingly. These two things happening simultaneously indicate the market is trading not "direction," but a "recalibration of risk budget." My own feeling is that this is more like a deep breath during a volatility phase. After the high leverage was cleared out earlier, short-term funds dare to test the waters again, but in a gentler way. If this net inflow can hold for several consecutive days, BTC will first stabilize its range, and then ETH and some high-beta altcoins might catch the spillover of risk appetite; conversely, if the inflow is just a one-day pulse, the volatility contraction could easily turn into a false calm, and an external event could wash out fragile positions again. Notably, sentiment indicators have temporarily returned near neutral zero, meaning optimism is not fully priced in yet. This is both room for bullishness and a hidden risk—everyone is not yet excited, indicating limited willingness to chase highs, and a breakout will require new catalysts. - Bullish path: leverage clearing + continued capital inflow, volatility contracts then expands, leading mainstream coins rally. - Risk point: net inflow unsustainable, any negative news under neutral sentiment will be amplified into a secondary sell-off.Yesterday, a fan asked me in the chat: "Fei Ge, with such strong non-farm payroll data, gold has plunged, but why hasn't Bitcoin dropped? Is the main force holding back some big move?"
Let me give you the truth. You think the main force has a conspiracy? Actually, the truth is harsh: the main force has long "packed up and left"!
Think back, starting Tuesday, US tech stocks crashed, ETFs saw outflows of over a billion dollars for seven consecutive days, and Bitcoin dropped from 80,000 to 75,000. At that time, the bulls had already been bloodied once. When the data finally came out, the bearish news was already an open secret. Now, what's left in the market are those trapped at the top pretending to be dead, and those below who dare not enter.
No new funds, no high leverage, who is the main force going to crush? Air?
So, don't always think the market is stagnant because the big players are scheming. The current market is like a stagnant pool; everyone is afraid to make the first move and get caught. No volatility is the biggest risk. Let's just grab a small stool and wait for it to choose a direction on its own. Don't scare yourself!
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
Economic data is so good, why isn't crypto rising?
165,000 vs expected 65,000, when the nonfarm payrolls came out, many were stunned: employment is so strong, yet BTC only moved +0.17% that day.
In plain terms: nonfarm payrolls show how many jobs the US added in a month. Easy to find jobs → economy heats up → inflation doesn't easily go down → Fed has no reason to rush rate cuts → money isn't cheap → risk assets lose that "water".
So this kind of data can't be summarized as simply "bullish/bearish," it changes the market's expectation of "will money get cheaper or not." Almost no movement is actually quite honest—big money is waiting for clearer signals, not betting on a single news piece.
Do you think there's still room for rate cuts in December? Let's discuss in the comments.
#非农 #宏观 #BTC #行情分析 Next Tuesday at 9:30 PM, the US October CPI will be released. This might be the last inflation report before the Fed's December meeting. Mi Ge thinks this is the real test for next week.
Let's look at the numbers first: the market expects October CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with the core up 0.2%. September's figures were 0.6% month-over-month and 0.3% core, both 0.1 points higher than expected. Bitcoin dropped 1.5% in one minute at that time. There's something special this time: last October, the government shutdown meant the statistics bureau couldn't collect prices, so the official report won't publish year-over-year data, only month-over-month.
Why focus on this? On Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000. The market has already priced in about a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike on December 9. If CPI exceeds expectations again, the rate hike is even more certain; if the core can be held to 0.2% or even lower, December will still be uncertain.
Mi Ge's view is simple: don't rush to place heavy bets before the CPI release. Once the data is out, first look at the core line. Although 0.2% and 0.3% differ by only 0.1 points, the market reaction could be completely opposite. The volatility in the minutes after the release will be large, so remember to set stop losses on contracts.
What do you think? Will the core CPI be 0.2% or 0.3% this time? $BTC Employment increased by 165,000, but the crypto market dropped first
The US added 165,000 jobs in October, while the market had only expected 65,000.
What is this price level: $BTC fell from 75,500 to 74,762, the lowest in seven weeks.
Many people's first reaction is that the data is too strong, so it dropped.
How is this number calculated: expected 65,000, actual 165,000, 100,000 more jobs than expected.
Good employment means one less reason for rate cuts.
Looking at it from another angle, if high interest rates persist for a while, borrowing costs won't come down.
The market has already priced out the rate cut portion in advance.
Looking further ahead, the real pressure is not on the day of the data, but on every week the rate cut is delayed.
$BTC is very likely to continue consolidating in this range for a while.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#$BTC Samsung Wallet has launched USDC: About 82 million eligible Galaxy phones in the U.S. can buy, store, and transfer stablecoins without downloading any crypto apps or managing private keys.
I checked the details: The underlying USDC is on Solana, custody is by Bastion, with Coinbase as sub-custodian; transfers within the wallet are free of charge by Samsung, but credit card top-ups incur a 4% fee, and users in New York State cannot use this feature. (Sources: Decrypt, Stripe announcement)
My view: The 82 million figure refers to "eligible devices," not users, so don’t mistake it for 82 million new holders. Its significance lies not in the number but in the entry point: many people’s first encounter with stablecoins might be through the phone’s built-in wallet, without even realizing they are using "cryptocurrency."
The 4% card fee also indicates that this business currently profits from entry points and fees. Ordinary users should note: check fees before topping up, and use bank transfers instead of credit cards when possible #美元稳定币或加速出海 $USDC European Central Bank issues inflation warning! Energy prices refuse to cool down, global interest rate cut expectations face new tests?
On November 7, ECB Executive Board member Hernández de Cos issued a reminder about the current global inflation situation: monetary policymakers cannot underestimate the inflation risks brought by rising energy prices, especially as the Iran war lasts longer than expected and energy prices have yet to show the market-anticipated decline.
He stated that although there is no obvious second-round inflation transmission effect yet, the previous market hope that the war would end quickly and energy prices would fall accordingly is no longer so optimistic. Therefore, the central bank still needs to remain highly vigilant about inflation.
What is even more noteworthy is that he also mentioned another hidden risk: public debt in some European countries is already at historic highs, yet fiscal deficits remain elevated.
What does this mean?
If energy prices remain high and inflation cannot be brought down, it will be difficult for central banks to cut interest rates easily. If borrowing costs continue to stay high or even rise further, those heavily indebted countries will face greater pressure just to service their interest payments.
There is a very important market transmission logic here:
Energy prices rise → Inflation pressure increases → Interest rate cut space limited → Financing costs remain high → Global risk assets under pressure.$ETH: Spot ETF (11.5) net outflow nearly 100 million, totaling 427.6 million over five days; Glamsterdam hard fork delayed.
Fidelity transferred 27,000 ETH (60.27 million) to Galaxy Digital. USDT holdings at annual low, leverage ratio increased but open positions decreased. Whales shifted from long to short 30,000 ETH (average price 2283-2430), shorting after earning 17.78 million.
$SOL: Central bank suspends SOL promotion in Shanghai and launches investigation. Pump.fun continues depositing coins to Kraken (total sales 893 million). Internal split: co-founder Toly criticizes foundation and memecoin, Labs promotes Leap causing ecological criticism.$AKE is really outrageous this round. The 24-hour volatility today is close to 189%, the difference between the highest and lowest is nearly threefold, and the turnover rate is 132%, completely showing funds repeatedly tugging inside.
This coin has previously experienced extreme short squeezes, rising nearly 6 times in 8 hours, doubling in 7 minutes, with short liquidations accounting for nearly 89% at one point, and arbitrage accounts losing over 5 million USDT in a single day. So it's not "low position means suitable for shorting," but rather "structurally dangerous, can be blown up at any time."
I’m shorting 3 times with a light position to test, holding for a day or two to see how it goes. If it drops, I’ll hold a bit; if it rebounds and breaks the position, I’ll exit immediately—no holding, no adding, no fighting. In a demon coin market, surviving is more important than guessing right.
Small position, with stop loss, not investment advice. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 A piece of news that doesn't quite sound like crypto news: Tether, the issuer of USDT, has gone to make eyes for robots.
On November 7, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the company's VisionPsy model provides visual capabilities for G Bionics' robots, and it runs completely locally. QVAC posted a demo video, saying this robot ran at the Plan ₿ Forum in Lugano.
The key point to unpack is the word "locally." Currently, most machine vision sends images to the cloud for inference, facing three hurdles: latency, bandwidth, and privacy. Running locally means the model must be compressed small enough and the computing power packed into the machine itself—this is engineering hard work, not something you can gloss over by just releasing an API.
The second layer is the occasion. Plan ₿ Forum is a Bitcoin community event, yet Tether is showcasing a robot there. USDT has long been more than just an "on-chain dollar"; its issuer is moving itself toward AI infrastructure.
My judgment: this has no direct impact on the price of $USDT, the stablecoin remains pegged. But it changes the market's valuation imagination of Tether—from a company living off interest on U.S. Treasuries to one holding models and hardware partners.
A question to leave: when a stablecoin issuer starts selling AI capabilities, does its relationship with the $BTC ecosystem become closer or more distant?#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向
Essentially, Buffett's team remains cautious about the current market valuation. This earnings report focuses on two key points: whether cash reserves will continue to rise, and whether Abel has made any large acquisitions. The massive ammunition held in reserve is not a bullish signal but rather a wait for market panic and discounted quality assets. It's worth referencing this big player's risk control approach!BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced net outflows on the same day, with money flowing out
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $412 million yesterday, with IBIT having the largest outflow; Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $93.1887 million on the same day, led by ETHA. Both sides moving together suggests it’s not just a one-sided portfolio adjustment.
What holders need to watch is the sustainability, not just the single-day figures. ETF channel funds usually move slowly, but once the direction forms a chain, the market’s support strength will weaken.
Another signal comes from the mining side: Bitdeer maintains zero Bitcoin holdings and sold 258.6 BTC this week. When miners hold no inventory and ETF net outflows are considered together, supply-side actions are more worth monitoring than the price itself.Pause for a moment. Don't rush. This time, I'm more cautious about the rebound after chasing a position. ⚡Hyperliquid's public market data shows that $XMR currently has the highest absolute funding rate among contracts, at 0.0372% per hour, approximately 326% annualized, but the price dropped 0.88% in 24 hours.
My judgment: This seems more like a reminder that short-term rhythms can easily get twisted, not a direct bearish signal. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts, so holding positions for a long time incurs costs; yet the price still falls, indicating that paying the fee didn't bring a simultaneous price increase. Conversely, a high funding rate doesn't mean shorts will definitely win, and the annualized figure shouldn't be taken as guaranteed profit.
My approach to entry and exit is to wait for price confirmation and not chase direction based on funding rates. If the price continues to weaken, I'll give up on trying to catch a rebound; if it suddenly pulls back, I won't stubbornly hold a short just because I receive funding. When encountering this combination of high positive funding rate but weak price, would you skip it directly or wait for a pullback to be supported?In 2025, losses caused by investment scams in the UK reached £221.5 million, highlighting a sharp rise that underscores social media platforms as a primary gateway for financial fraud. Scammers no longer need to hack bank accounts; a single Instagram ad or a seemingly credible WhatsApp message is enough to convince victims to transfer funds voluntarily. This shift marks a fundamental change in fraud tactics from technical attacks to psychological manipulation. New Fraud Scenarios Scammers exploit the trust and reach of social media to target retail investors, often using high-return promises on cryptocurrencies, forex, or fake investment projects as bait. Once contact is established, victims are guided through a series of seemingly legitimate steps—fake trading platforms, forged profit records, even small initial withdrawals—to build confidence before larger sums are transferred. This "authorized push payment" model makes it technically harder for banks and regulators to intervene. Fraud data from the UK reflects broader trends in Europe and North America, where investment scams have surpassed card fraud to become the category with the highest financial losses in consumer financial crime. Cryptocurrency-related scams are a significant component, with scammers leveraging the anonymity and cross-border nature of digital assets to obscure fund flows. Industry and Regulatory Impact The surge in social media-driven scams poses direct challenges to platforms and financial regulators. Social media companies face increasing pressure to verify advertiser identities and proactively remove fraudulent content; regulators are also urged to extend responsibility beyond banks to the platforms publishing the ads 一位交易者把30倍杠杆的截图当作勋章晒过，如今却连账户都不敢让人看——他困在75800附近的$BTC买单里，越跌越买，买到忘了当初为什么进场。这不是段子，而是当下最真实的市场切片：散户的“信仰”正在变成流动性的对手盘。 有意思的是，同一时间宏观叙事却在往反方向推。美国10月非农数据超预期，市场对12月加息的押注升温——这意味着美元端的紧缩预期重新抬头，风险资产估值面临分母端的挤压。$BTC在这种环境下跌，不是偶然，而是资金在重新定价“高利率更久”的可能性。散户看到的是“打折”，机构看到的是“折现率变了”。 这就是人群最容易误判的地方。抄底者把价格下跌当成机会，却忽略了下跌的驱动已经从情绪转向宏观结构。75800这个位置之所以让人“卡住”，恰恰因为它是情绪锚点而非价值锚点——当买入理由是“它跌得惨”而不是“它被低估”，仓位就变成了心理负担，而非交易决策。 更深一层的二阶效应在于：当杠杆散户被套、晒单文化退潮，市场的边际买盘会从“追涨的冲动资金”切换为“等待确认的耐心资金”。这种切换期往往伴随成交量萎缩和反弹乏力，$BTC的价格发现会变得更依赖宏观数据而非链上叙事。$ETH和$SOL这类高$AXON
Software is growing rapidly, so why does Axon still focus solely on procurement delays?
Axon's software and services revenue in Q3 increased by 43% year-over-year, but the latest full-year guidance excludes approximately $130 million in federal Dedrone deployment revenue. There is a mismatch between long-term demand and short-term procurement realization.
Recurring software can improve revenue stability, while hardware and government deployments are still affected by budget, acceptance, and procurement processes. One high-growth segment cannot offset the risk of delays in another.
If subsequent deployments are re-implemented and payments stabilize, the short-term gap can be repaired; if order delays persist repeatedly, the backlog scale cannot be directly regarded as near-term profit and revenue visibility needs to be downgraded.Industry Chain and Market Impact
US Cloud Vendors and AI Hardware: Approval delays and soaring grid connection costs may postpone some local data center deliveries; the proportion of non-chip CapEx spent on grid access and compliance increases, effectively diluting the budget flexibility for GPU procurement
Traditional Utilities: Facing stringent pricing scrutiny, it is difficult to cover large customer infrastructure costs by raising prices for residents
Self-Generated Power and Off-Grid Generation: Tech giants will accelerate bypassing the public grid, directly signing power purchase agreements (PPA) with nuclear power (SMR), natural gas, and large-scale integrated solar-storage projects
Compute Power Offshore and Technology Shift: Domestic restrictions will push some training compute power to overflow to the Middle East, Northern Europe, and Southeast Asia; simultaneously, this forces large model vendors to shift from "purely stacking GPUs" to algorithm efficiency optimization, edge inference, and low-power chips
In the short term, the implementation cycle of related legislation is long, mostly reflecting valuation disturbances caused by policy uncertainty
In the medium to long term, "power and compliance access" has replaced "GPU capacity" as the primary hard constraint limiting AI expansion
Going forward, the core issue is no longer the total CapEx of tech giants, but what proportion can truly be converted into powered-on, operational compute
#AI巨头融资观察：OpenAI完成110亿美元融资，科技企业发债潮持续 $OPENAI No shortage of chips, but a shortage of power! The U.S. tightens data center approvals, will the AI industry chain face a new round of reshuffling?
The U.S. plans to tighten data center regulations, essentially a backlash against the disorderly expansion of AI computing power clashing with U.S. energy bottlenecks and grassroots livelihood interests.
Three main regulatory measures:
1. Limit new capacity: Propose suspending construction or raising environmental review thresholds for hyperscale computing centers. Due to resident protests over noise and water/electricity consumption, places like Virginia and Pennsylvania have begun to shelve controversial projects in batches.
2. Reshape power grid cost allocation: Require hyperscale power users to fully bear the costs of dedicated grid connections and grid expansion, ending the previous model where ordinary residents' electricity bills subsidized infrastructure costs.
3. Cancel tax incentives: Explore reducing property and equipment tax exemptions for data centers and taxing high-energy-consuming computing power, directly squeezing the capital expenditure returns of tech giants.
Underlying conflicts erupt:
AI iteration far outpaces the upgrade speed of the aging U.S. power grid; transformer shortages and grid connection queues delay infrastructure, while data centers' power grabs cause residents' electricity bills to rise and increase power rationing risks. This has evolved into a direct political issue affecting votes, forcing regulators to shift from unconditionally encouraging AI to balancing the power grid and public livelihood.
$SNDK #Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 There's something I've never quite understood: when someone is publicly called out once, why does it seem to work even better this round?
ZachXBT said Ansem promotes small-cap tokens and celebrity tokens, and gamblers have given him credibility again this cycle, essentially lining up to exit liquidity themselves. The criticism hasn't devalued him; instead, it has become part of his resume.
The issue lies in the attention itself. There's not much to analyze about small-cap coins; what matters is who's shouting. The more controversial the shouter, the more people think "this time it's different." But the market cap remains the same, and the money coming in has to be taken by someone.
So every time I see someone shouting about a new coin, I only ask one question: who's selling on the other side? 现价 约 75,900—76,100 美元（各交易所略有差异），约合人民币 50.6 万 24H 区间 74,877 — 76,374 距历史高点 约 -39.9%（ATH 126,080，2025-10-06） 阶段跌幅 近 1 月约 -8.8%，近 3 月约 -28.9%，年内约 -13.5% 市场情绪 恐慌区间（恐惧指数约 25） 成交量 明显萎缩，较前一日减约 35%—37%，低于近 30 日中位数 最近三天的关键动作： - 11/4：+3.94% 反弹至 80,504。 - 11/5：纳指暴跌 5.52%，比特币同步下挫 5.49%；美国现货比特币 ETF 单日净流出 4.3 亿美元（前一日还是净流入 7,460 万），多头爆仓约 8.8 亿美元。 - 11/6：美国 10 月非农新增 16.5 万人（预期仅 6.5 万），美债收益率上行、12 月加息预期升温。比特币一度跌破 75,000 至最低 74,888，随后反弹收在 75,844 附近，微跌 0.32%——美股反弹了，币没跟上。 二、技术面：多空都没赢 - 支撑：75,633（日线 IchimZachXBT recently said something worth reading three times for those still chasing celebrity coins: He once publicly named Ansem for promoting small-cap tokens and celebrity tokens, but gamblers in this cycle have given Ansem credibility again and provided exit liquidity.
The most painful part is not "promotion," but "again."
When someone is publicly named once, logically their credibility should be discounted. But in reality, his influence hasn't dropped; instead, the controversy has made him more visible. This is the strangest aspect of celebrity coins in this cycle: negative exposure is not a detriment but a source of traffic.
The mechanism is simple. Small-cap tokens have no fundamentals; their price is driven by attention, which is highly concentrated on a few people who shout out. This creates a closed loop—shouting signals, retail investors enter and push prices up, early holders sell at the high, and the buyers become the "exit liquidity." This term is not emotional expression; it precisely describes the flow of funds: your purchase is someone else's sale.
So the real question is not "Is this KOL reliable?" but "Who holds the chips?" If the answer is him and a small group of early addresses, no matter how sincere his calls are, your position is the exit.
Don't expect safety by switching KOLs; the same structure works with different people. Varieties like $BTC still have holders, not because they have risen much, but because the opposing positions are sufficiently dispersed, and no one can decide your exit price with a single tweet.
Knowing they've been named, why do people still give credibility? Probably because they all think they can leave before the music stops. $BTC climbed back above 76,000 on Saturday, but ETFs have already withdrawn 1.28 billion in November, with BlackRock pulling out 403 million in just one day on Friday. This rebound is driven by short-covering, not institutional returns.
$ETH wavered around 2,248, with the shadow of the Glamsterdam upgrade delay still lingering. However, a giant whale quietly scooped up 8,775 coins on-chain at a cost of 2,245, picking up bloodied chips.
$ZEC's NU7 upgrade has truly landed, cutting block time to 25 seconds. On Friday, it briefly squeezed shorts to 1,387, but today it slid back to 1,267. The positive news has been fully priced in, leaving those chasing highs stranded at the peak.
On the A-share market, a hundred stocks hit their daily limit, but the spotlight was on baijiu (white liquor). Huangtai Liquor hit a two-day limit up, followed by Shuijingfang and Jinzhongzi Liquor sealing their limits. AI animation stocks Jiecheng and Guomai surged 20CM, Wentou Holdings hit the daily limit, and broad-based ETFs saw a massive inflow of 129.5 billion, with money flowing back through major channels.
ST Doushen surged 65% in a week, Zhejiang Film Industry hit a five-day limit up, photovoltaic stocks Ainengju and Yongzhen remain on the list, but banks and coal stocks fell against the trend, with funds both fighting and hiding.
In the US market, the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 4.21%, AMD gained 11%, Intel rose 7.7%, TSMC climbed 6.2%, with chip stocks rushing to recover. However, the Dow was pressed down by the non-farm payrolls, falling 0.46%, showing a clear split.
On one side, ETFs are withdrawing; on the other, chip stocks are rebounding from oversold. Meanwhile, A-shares rotate mysteriously on their own. Ultimately, the market itself is too lazy to answer which side the money trusts.Hold on to two data points tightly. First, the perpetual funding rate is still mildly positive, nowhere near the level of extreme short squeeze or deeply negative rates — the real bottom often comes when shorts are squeezed out and funding rates turn deeply negative, which is far from now. Second, the main liquidations these days are longs, not shorts, indicating the deleveraging meat grinder hasn't stopped yet. A low-volume rebound means anyone rushing in can easily get stuck halfway up the mouTRX, NEAR, and XTZ continue to increase issuance, causing token oversupply and continuous dilution of holding value, resulting in long-term pressure.
Celo, Ronin, and RVN have capped total supply, with incremental issuance gradually decreasing, and scarcity accumulating over time, supporting long-term value.
TRX relies on the TRON ecosystem but token release is nonstop; NEAR continuously produces blocks and issues more tokens; XTZ adds tokens through staking rewards; Celo focuses on mobile stablecoin payments; Ronin specializes in blockchain gaming scenarios; RVN is a PoW asset issuance public chain with no inflation backdoors.
Short-term market trends are driven by capital sentiment, but over a longer cycle, supply rules are the true dividing line of value. #Elon Musk expects SpaceX's annualized revenue to exceed $100 billion by the end of the year Elon Musk stated at an investment conference that Q4 revenue is expected to increase about 70% quarter-on-quarter, with annualized revenue reaching over $100 billion by year-end. Meanwhile, government revenue proportion is rapidly falling below 10%, with the core growth engine officially shifting to Starlink communications and AI computing power business. This expectation also drove a single-day rebound in the stock price.
Structurally, Starlink is currently a stable cash cow, continuously contributing profits through global individual, airline, and enterprise subscriptions; the high growth highlight comes from the AI computing power business, with major clients like Anthropic driving explosive computing power revenue, already surpassing traditional rocket launch business. This change perfectly offsets market concerns: after the Democrats took control of Congress, the market has worried about government contracts for Musk's companies being reviewed or reduced. The continuous decline in government order proportion reduces policy risk exposure.
However, it should be clear that this is Musk's scenario forecast, not a performance commitment. To achieve the goal, on one hand, AI computing power contracts must continue to be secured without losing major clients; on the other hand, Starlink's expansion is still suppressing revenue per user, requiring user scale to compensate for the decline in average revenue per user. At the same time, Starship R&D and computing infrastructure capital expenditures are huge, so high revenue growth does not necessarily mean profit improvement.
From the market perspective, this optimistic guidance repairs valuation cuts caused by earlier regulatory panic, but Wall Street institutions generally predict figures far below Musk's targets, showing significant divergence. Follow-up focus will be on actual Q4 revenue, AI client renewals, and Starlink new user data. $BTC $SPCX Important signals have appeared in the AI industry chain: memory orders are locked in until 2030, and demand for energy equipment remains strong!
Recently, the market has been discussing a question: how much of the crazy investment in AI infrastructure is genuine demand, and how much is just storytelling by the capital market?
On November 7, the latest earnings call information from two companies provided an answer worth noting.
First, let's look at Micron.
Sumit Sadana, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer of Micron, stated that in the past, traditional long-term supply agreements (LTA) usually lasted only 12 months and lacked real binding force. But now the situation is completely different.
With AI's growing demand for key chips such as high-bandwidth memory, Micron is signing new Strategic Customer Agreements (SCA) with strategic customers. These agreements typically last up to 5 years, with some orders covering until 2030, and adopt a binding "take-or-pay" model.
Simply put, previously customers could flexibly adjust orders based on market conditions; now, with the new agreements signed, they cannot buy or cancel at will. Even if they do not take delivery, they must fulfill payment obligations according to the contract.
Next, let's look at GE Vernova.
Previously, the market was worried that the large power equipment needed for AI data center construction, such as turbine orders, might be canceled or delayed due to customers' financing difficulties.