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Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, posted a video: controlling a model car via a mobile phone interface. The accompanying explanation is that Tether's tech stack will support Bluetooth.
Many people's first reaction is, how does a stablecoin issuer suddenly get into remote-controlled cars? My understanding is that the focus of this video is not the car itself, but the fact that "the phone directly connects to a physical device."
The battlefield for stablecoins in recent years has been on-chain: how much to issue, on which chain, how fast the clearing is. But the real last mile of payment has always been stuck on "you have to open the app first, have internet first, scan a code first." If the Bluetooth route works, it means bypassing the network for the segment from device to wallet, solving it with near-field direct connection.
The role change behind this is even more noteworthy. Tether used to be just the issuer; now it is moving toward the position of "infrastructure provider," sinking from on-chain down to the device end. The scale of $USDT is already so large that simply competing by issuing more is not very meaningful; drilling into scenarios is where the growth lies.
Of course, a demo video is still far from a product. What Bluetooth can transmit, how authorization is done, how to prevent double-spending offline—none of these questions are answered in the video.
I want to leave you with one point: if wallets can really communicate with nearby devices via Bluetooth, the first thing to be rewritten might not be crypto trading, but the whole offline payment system.$ZEC is a highly volatile box range compressed by 1,385 for a whole month (1,110–1,390). The NU7 upgrade was realized on 11-05. On 11-06, the seventh attempt to break 1,388 failed and fell back the same day—this is a typical "good news fully priced + false breakout." The current price at 1,276 is right above the box center at 1,250, a position neither up nor down, not an entry point. Trading rating: Wait and see (bearish bias, but do not chase shorts) Strategy positioning: Edge trading of the box, avoid the middle Core reference: Current price 1,275.68 | Upper edge 1,355–1,390 | Lower edge 1,210–1,250 | Invalid line 1,110 1,385 was tested seven times but not broken → This is not a "consolidation breakout," it is chips being repeatedly distributed at the same position. On 11-06, it surged to 1,388 but closed at 1,323 that day (a 4.7% pullback), then dropped to 1,273 on 11-07, confirming the false breakout. $ZEC capital and sentiment: Catalysts have been exhausted 1. NU7 upgrade = realized good news On 11-05, mainnet activated NU7: block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, Sprout pool closed This was the only dated catalyst for ZEC in the past month Price path: pulled up to 1,388 before the upgrade (11-06) → dropped back to 1,273 two days after the upgrade A dated positive event, once the date passes, it turns negative.A proposed tokenized U.S. stock trading venue has updated its public objection list. Apple, Meta, Palantir, S&P Global, Corning, and AMD have appeared on the newly added list. The total number of companies objecting has reached 67. According to CoinDesk's statistics on the same day, of the initially selected 62 listed companies, about 90%, or 56, have already submitted written objections. The companies not yet on the objection list are only Strategy, Circle, Robinhood, Securitize, BitGo, and another large crypto-listed company. All six are crypto-related companies. This is not a vote but a veto right. According to the innovation exemption arrangement given by U.S. securities regulators to such venues, the venue must notify the issuer in writing of the third party's plan to tokenize a particular stock. The issuer then has 30 calendar days to submit a written objection. Once the objection takes effect, the token of that stock cannot be listed on this venue. The venue must include the objecting company in the public list within five business days, so the public list is published later than the actual decision. The original design intention was to trade U.S. stock tokens around the clock, settled in stablecoins, matching through an automated market-making pool rather than a traditional order book. After the list has been reduced to its current state, the stocks that can actually be launched are most likely limited to insiders from the crypto industry. The large-cap technology, banking, retail, and industrial stocks originally intended to be covered have mostly been blocked by the issuers themselves. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange also participated in this joint venture venue. The co-chairman said at a press conference the previous week that companies outside the list actively reached out$SNDK 1400 was the price 8 days ago, with an intraday high of 1,421.1 on 10-28.
Now at 838, it needs to rise 67% to get back to 1400.
10-29 −6.1%, 10-30 −9.7%.
11-04 −9.2%, 11-05 −21.3%, lowest at 794.
In seven trading days, it has dropped about 44%.
At first glance, seeing 794, I thought I was mistaken.
The drop is not due to the earnings report.
The earnings report came out on 10-29, with revenue of 11.03 billion.
Data center revenue increased 61% quarter-over-quarter, gross margin 85.1%.
The numbers look good, yet it dropped the next day.
The reason lies in the voting results.
The Democratic Party took both chambers and won several governorships.
They promised strict regulation on data center construction.
Expectations for AI infrastructure were crushed, storage being high beta, fell the hardest.
The contradiction is here.
PE is 6.72, Forward PE 3.41, average price 2,023.
But the stock price is only 838.
The reason it's cheap is not poor performance, but the market betting that policies will strangle AI infrastructure.
Whether 1400 can be reached again, I won't guess.
Here are two reference points:
52-week range is 183 to 2,354, a 67% move is considered normal fluctuation.
But it depends on whether policies loosen first or earnings can't hold up.
There will be a 1-for-8 stock split on 11-20. Farside's Friday data is out: US spot $BTC ETF had a single-day net outflow of $411.9 million, with IBIT alone withdrawing $403 million, while FBTC actually saw an inflow of $42.8 million; from November 2 to 6, the total outflow was about $1.28 billion, with IBIT experiencing net outflows for six consecutive trading days. The $ETH spot ETF also had an outflow of $93.3 million on the same day.
The market hasn't collapsed: OKX spot BTC is currently around 75,890, touched 76,251 at 4 PM but was pushed back, 24h high/low is 76,251 / 74,888; ETH is about 2,241. TRdesk reports that across 12 exchanges in the past 24h, BTC liquidations totaled about $50.9 million, with longs accounting for 83%, which is much calmer compared to Friday's liquidation wave.
My view is that leverage is no longer the main selling pressure; the pressure is on the ETF side. If outflows don't stop after the US stock market opens next Monday, the 75,000 level will be hard to hold, so don't rush to buy yet.
$BTC $ETHIf this round of oil prices stabilizes, will funds flow back to $BTC first, or to the US stock market first?
It depends. If it's a gradual easing like now, half-talked and slowly worked out, the first wave of capital return will definitely be to Nasdaq tech stocks. Oil prices fall, inflation concerns cool down, US Treasury yields decline, and public and index allocation funds prioritize returning to US stocks, which is the main reservoir for orthodox risk assets.
Bitcoin belongs to the secondary market phase; incremental funds will only overflow after the US stock market shows risk appetite. Plus, crypto itself currently faces a lot of bearish pressure, making it hard to absorb large funds first.
But if Qatar's plan is implemented directly and the Strait of Hormuz confirms the resumption of navigation, that would be an unexpectedly major positive. BTC's 24/7 trading and short-term leveraged funds will rush in first, pulling up a wave, while true long-term allocation funds will still prioritize US stocks.
The worst-case scenario is if the oil price drop is not due to peace talks but market pricing a recession. Even if crude oil falls, funds will flow into bonds, and both US stocks and Bitcoin will be under pressure.
For us, we can use the status of Hormuz shipping and US Treasury yields as anchors. If yields decline and the strait's navigation is confirmed, Nasdaq will move first, then BTC can be laid out simultaneously.
Short-term news will tug back and forth; don't let single-day rises or falls mislead your rhythm. To follow along in sync, visit the homepage research community.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $SNDK $CL $SPCX Musk's ability to paint a grand vision is truly top-notch, directly proclaiming revenue will exceed 500 billion by 2027. The core trump card has changed; SpaceX is no longer just a contractor relying purely on government orders. By tightly partnering with Anthropic, it has carved out a new path in space computing power when terrestrial data centers are choked by regulations.
$SOXL But behind the huge profits lies a big risk. A single AI client contributes one-third of the revenue, meaning it is deeply tied to the current most frenzied large model cycle. Now that AI financing is shrinking overall, if the major client runs out of funds, this high-growth myth could be discounted at any time. The story is enticing, but don't get carried away; keep a close eye on that AI giant's cash flow trump card.PUMP has experienced two consecutive hours of volume-increased decline, and it's still unclear if the buyers are strong enough to take over.
On OKEx spot from 20:00 to 21:00, about 556,000 USDT was traded, which is 4.1 times the average of the previous 12 completed hours. The closing price dropped from 0.003823 to 0.003787. The previous hour also saw about 516,000 USDT traded. Volume has been high for two hours, but the price has fallen hour by hour.
I tend to first observe whether the selling pressure can be absorbed. There are about 244,000 USDT buy orders within 1% below the price, higher than about 131,000 USDT sell orders at the same distance above, but orders can be withdrawn and cannot be directly considered support. Contract open interest slightly decreased in the most recent complete hour, which is insufficient to prove that new shorts are aggressively increasing positions.
If the next completed hour sees volume shrink but the price still breaks below 0.00377, the support explanation weakens further; if volume increases and the price recovers to 0.00387, then we can see if the sell orders above are truly being filled.
$PUMP $TRUMP Negative news: After the Democrats took control of both chambers, the valuation of the family coin is still being pulled down
After the Democrats took over both the House and Senate, what reason does TRUMP have to withstand the political discount?
OKEx current price 1.174, 24h -3.37%, volume about 7.45 million, intraday dropped from a high of 1.279 to around a low of 1.17
CoinMarketCap and TokenPost summary: After the Democrats swept the midterm elections on 11/3, Trump-related concept coins such as TRUMP, WLFI, MELANIA led the decline. TRUMP once fell about 17% in a single day to around 1.30, even though BTC was still rebounding at that time
The core issue is not slogans, but expectations of congressional investigations: The Democratic agenda specifically targets the Trump family’s crypto projects and conflicts of interest. Related legislative ethics clauses will also block the family coin narrative, sharply cutting the political brand premium
Coupled with this week’s tech stock collapse and about $1.1 billion in crypto liquidations, low-liquidity political meme coins have fallen deeper than mainstream coins, and are still digesting the tail end of the election impact.How do those who truly make big money in the crypto circle actually do it? After studying several successful cases with public trading records, I found that their ways of making money are actually quite different.
1. Ansem: Making early discoveries of Meme narratives
On December 1, 2023, he bought his first WIF with $472 at about $0.0003 per token, and added another $185 eight days later. This was during the market recovery phase after the 2022 bear market ended, when the Solana Meme trend was just beginning.
In April 2024, WIF peaked near $4.9, about 4 months after his initial purchase.
But he didn’t just hold on blindly. On-chain statistics show he invested about $2.14 million in total, sold about $2.85 million, realizing a profit of about $804,000, with another unrealized profit of about $745,000. Note: The 16,000x figure is the ratio of the initial purchase price to the highest price, not his actual realized gains.
2. Paulo.sol: Capturing the main Meme uptrend through trend trading. He started buying BONK on November 11, 2023, began buying WIF on December 4, and started trading BODEN on March 6, 2024. He didn’t blindly chase every new coin but increased his buying power after observing upward trends in tokens, repeatedly trading by buying low and selling high. As of April 26, 2024, on-chain tracking reports show he has realized cumulative profits of about $22.83 million across BONK, WIF, and BODEN tokens.Weekend watch: Bitcoin is currently around $75,878, trading narrowly between $74,888 and $76,378 today. The $75,000 level is still holding, but the real line is at $75,600 — that's the low on election night and near the 50-week moving average. If it can't hold this, it will be the fifth consecutive week of decline, closing below the 200-day moving average. Interestingly, Strategy holds 849,000 BTC at an average cost of about $75,451, and the current price is only about 0.6% higher, meaning the whole market is watching the same line. After the non-farm payrolls, the probability of a December rate hike is nearly 80%, with the Fear & Greed Index at 25, indicating extreme fear. This weekend, the focus is on whether $75,600 can hold; only a recovery above $77,700 will signal a breather $BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 一、核心结论 这是一份“利润小幅不及预期、资本配置远超预期”的财报。承保利润 -43% 构成拖累，但 96 亿美元回购（市场预期 16.4 亿，5.9 倍）是真正的信息量——管理层在历史新高位置用真金白银投票。基本面给“回踩买”的理由，但技术面（RSI 73.6 + 11-05 放量冲高回落）明确警告“不要追高开”。 $BRKB 财报评级：中性偏多 交易评级：可介入，但只在回踩位介入，不追突破 核心参考价：现价 570.89｜第一支撑 559.6–561.0｜第二支撑 543.7–545｜第一压力 579.09｜第二压力 586.30 二、Q3 财报拆解（2026Q3 vs 2025Q3，单位：百万美元） 项目-2026Q3-2025Q3-同比点评 经营利润12,705-13,485−5.8%经营EPS(B) 5.94，市场预期 5.91，微超 净利润22,112-30,796−28.2%受投资损益拖累，噪音项 投资损益9,407-17,311−45.7%含 77 亿未实现浮盈，不反映经营 保险承保1,352-2,369−42.9%最大拖累项，预期 1,470，不及 保险投资收益2,7What will BTC do after being selected? Let's first look at the two historical instances.
On November 6, 2018, the weekly close was 6,450.
One month later it was 3,545, a drop of 45%.
One year later it was 9,039, an increase of 40%.
On November 8, 2022, the weekly close was 16,330.
One month later it was 17,085, an increase of 4.6%.
One year later it was 37,064, an increase of 127%.
Putting the two together, it looks like "long-term gains after selection."
I originally thought the short term would be the same, but after reviewing the data, I found the opposite.
One time it dropped 45%, the other time it rose 4.6%.
The difference is not in the selection, but in what was happening around it.
In 2018, it hit the last phase of a bear market, with December being the lowest point of the entire cycle.
In 2022, it coincided with FTX, and three days after selection the exchange ran into trouble.
So selection is not the main variable, just a point on the calendar.
What really determines the movement in the following three months is what else happened at the same time.
Back to the probability issue.
With only two samples, you can't calculate probability.
If someone gives you a "high probability of increase" number, that number is made up, not calculated.
Now it's 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, pressing down 4.7% overhead.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
Do you think this time there might also be a "side event" that hasn't been accounted for?
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 One detail that taught me a lesson this week: the entire process of $BTC dropping from above 80,000 back to 75,000, the OKX perpetual funding rate almost stayed at 0.01%. I checked the records: on November 4th, when it surged to 81,200, the rate was 0.01%. On the 5th, it dropped about 6% in one day (from 80,300 to a low of 75,558), and each settlement period was still around 0.01%. The real cooldown happened after the 6th; the 4 PM settlement today even turned negative at -0.0004%, while the price had been hovering around 76,000 for two days with a 24-hour volatility of only about 1.8%. My understanding is: 0.01% is the baseline, and most of the time it just indicates that longs are paying "normal interest," which doesn't mean there's no overheating, nor is it a safety signal. The rate turning negative often happens after the drop, so using it as a bottom-fishing signal can easily lag behind. Now I prefer to treat the funding rate as a "confirmation" rather than a "warning": first look at the price structure and key levels, like whether the 75,000 area holds, then use the funding rate to see if sentiment has caught up. Do you usually watch the funding rate? Do you use it for decision-making or just as a reference? $QQQ
Nasdaq rebound: how to distinguish between a correction and a trend recovery?
On November 6 during the US stock market session, a chip rebound drove the Nasdaq higher; this information reflects intraday conditions and cannot be directly interpreted as a sustained trend. After concentrated selling, short covering can naturally happen quickly.
Growth stocks face both profit-taking and interest rate constraints simultaneously. If the rebound only restores valuations without new profit evidence, its sustainability depends more on risk appetite.
I observe whether the subsequent rise spreads from hardware to software and other growth sectors. If breadth improves and profit downgrades stop, the correction is more credible; if the rebound is concentrated and then volume increases again with a pullback, it should continue to be assessed as a high-volatility environment.$SEI
Parallel execution is one of the more interesting approaches to improving blockchain performance. Sei uses this architecture to process compatible transactions more efficiently while supporting EVM applications. However, speed alone cannot guarantee ecosystem success. Developer retention, application quality, network security, and genuine user activity will ultimately determine whether its technical advantages create a lasting competitive position.To be honest, there are three questions I haven't understood these past few days.
How did BTC surge to 81,196 in one day and then drop back to 74,888 in two days?
Circle's earnings exceeded expectations, so why did its stock price fall by 10%?
SanDisk dropped 27% in three days, what is it falling over?
First, it rises fast and falls even faster.
On November 4, after the election results came out, BTC jumped from 75,736 to 81,196.
On November 5, it opened at 80,504, hit a low of 75,208, and closed at 76,088.
A 5.5% gain in one day was completely given back.
Second, Circle beat this quarter, but the market is looking at next year.
Revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, but CRCL fell from 75.22 to 67.58.
The USDC supply is still shrinking; a good quarter doesn't mean the supply is coming back.
Third, SanDisk's drop isn't about the earnings report.
SNDK fell from 1,145 to 838, a drop of nearly 27%.
Storage stocks are being hit by expectations of AI capital expenditures.
Putting these three things together sums up as: rises rely on news, falls rely on capital.
The position isn't easy either.
Current price is 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, 4.7% above.
MA200 is at 73,240, 3.5% below.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
$BTC $LIT missed its takeoff, now it can only be watched quietly land
The daily chart has completely broken below the long-term uptrend line, and the 1-hour chart shows a waterfall-like plunge, with the overall trend fully turning bearish. This slight rebound now is purely an oversold correction after a sharp drop, a typical downward consolidation.
The most critical issue is the underlying data: the long position ratio is as high as 65%! With such crowded retail holdings, the main force will never lift the price to help them break even. The most likely scenario is a weak rebound followed by continued selling pressure downward to test lower support levels, completely washing out these long holders. The overall trend is lost; control your impulses and patiently watch the show.Last night's market reaction was interesting. Despite negative headlines, Bitcoin only dipped toward $74,800, almost exactly matching the September correction low. Ethereum also held around $2,207 without breaking its previous low near $2,170. But I'm not convinced the bottom is in. Here's why I'm still cautious: 1. The rebound hasn't proven itself BTC has fallen from $88,000 to $75,000, while ETH dropped from $2,880 to $2,200. These prices naturally attract spot buyers looking for bargains. 2. Seeing this made me a bit confused: The US sanctioned 8 Canadian currency exchange companies, saying they helped Iran convert rials into crypto assets. When a country's money wants to flow out, it has to rely on a few small shops in another country to handle it; this chain is much more rustic than imagined.
What's even more interesting is that at the same time, the community is arguing about KOLs pushing products and cutting leeks. Outside, the exit is being blocked; inside, everyone is scrambling to be the exit. $BTC didn't drop, what fell was that little bit of trust.
Honestly, I don't know whether to say the regulators are too diligent or human nature is just too exploitable.Bitcoin market is declining, but Open Interest is growing against the trend!
According to Glassnode data, during the recent BTC price pullback, the open interest in Bitcoin derivatives increased by nearly $1.5 billion.
This indicates that even as market prices continue to fall, traders are still opening new leveraged positions, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
Notably, the continuous rise in OI during the decline may mean the market is accumulating more leverage risk. Once prices experience sharp fluctuations, forced liquidations of leveraged positions could further amplify market volatility.
Key points to watch next: BTC price trends, OI changes, and liquidation data.
Price decline and rising OI do not necessarily mean the market will continue to fall, but they do indicate accumulating risk.
Do you think this is bulls bottom-fishing, or bears adding to their positions?
#RocketLabQ3Neutron $BTC #USJobsBeatExpectations Next Tuesday (November 10) there are two major events on the same day: the US October CPI and SoftBank Group's Q2 earnings report.
SoftBank's report is worth a separate look. It is now roughly equivalent to OpenAI's "meal replacement stock": it has committed to investing $40 billion (net investment of $30 billion), and as of the end of March this year, the fair value of its OpenAI holdings was $79.6 billion, with an accumulated unrealized gain of $45 billion. The problem is that Altman confirmed in September that OpenAI will not go public in 2026, so this unrealized gain currently has no exit channel in the short term.
Where the money comes from is a hard constraint: last October, SoftBank liquidated Nvidia holdings to cash out $5.83 billion; in the previous fiscal year, it reduced T-Mobile holdings to raise $16.25 billion; it is also carrying a $40 billion bridge loan due in March 2027; in June, it tried to use OpenAI equity as collateral for a loan but was shelved by banks citing "difficulty in pricing private equity." S&P downgraded its rating outlook to negative in March.
The market has already pre-judged: it fell 7.9% on Wednesday, and intraday on Thursday it once dropped over 14%, with SoftBank's dollar bonds leading the decline among Asian investment-grade bonds.
The earnings report will focus on three things: how OpenAI's valuation is accounted for, how much the LTV rises, and where the next funds will come from.
This is a factual summary and does not constitute investment advice.A sanctions announcement shifted the focus from Tehran to Ottawa. The U.S. Treasury Department named 8 currency service companies registered in Canada, accusing them of providing financial services for sanctioned Iranian entities: converting Iranian rials into crypto assets, then directing them to blacklisted Iranian exchanges and addresses related to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The real highlight is the target. The U.S. did not escalate sanctions within Iran itself but instead targeted a geographically safer location to cut off this link’s transit points. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put it bluntly—Canada cannot become a safe harbor for sanctions evasion.
On the surface, this message is aimed at Iranian funds, but in reality, it’s a warning to all cross-border service providers: if your node handles such money, even if registered in North America and with seemingly compliant client materials, you could one day be labeled as assisting evasion.
In the same time window, another accountability event unfolded within the community. On-chain detective ZachXBT reiterated his repeated criticism of KOL Ansem for promoting small-cap tokens and celebrity coins, yet this round the gamblers still trusted him, allowing him a respectable exit liquidity.
Both incidents point to the same structure: money always finds a way out, and there are always sellers facilitating the exit. While states block cross-border gates and the market curses the promoters, demand remains unchanged, just taking a different route.
Where the next batch of transit points will move to is the latter half of this news. $BTC and $ETH feel no impact.$BTC
At 75,000, Wall Street also started pulling money out! $840 million outflow in two days, are institutions really not stepping in this time?
Farside data shows that on November 5 and 6, US spot BTC ETFs had net outflows of $430 million and $412 million respectively.
Including other trading days this week, the total outflow over five days is about $1.282 billion.
But looking at the details, things are quite interesting.
On November 6, BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day outflow of $403 million, while Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $42.8 million.
The same BTC ETFs, some are pulling money out, while others are still seeing funds coming in.
So it can't be simply explained as "institutions collectively running away."
However, overall buying is indeed weakening. BTC is currently still around $76,000, with a low touching $74,811, and the rebound lacks strength.
Short term will continue to be bearish, no rush to bottom-fish.
If 75,000 is broken, there is further pressure below; only if it climbs back above 78,000 and ETF fund outflows significantly narrow will we consider adjusting the outlook.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 $TRX Short Setup
* Current Price: $TRX 0.31984
* Bias: Bearish / Short
* Key Resistance: $TRX 0.3250 – $0.3350
* Target 1: $0.3100
* Target 2: $0.3000
* Stop Loss: $0.3420
Analysis: After failing to hold gains following the spike to $0.37589, the daily chart for TRX/USDT shows lower highs with moving averages capping upside momentum. As long as the price stays below the resistance zone, expect a drift back down toward the recent low support near $0.3000. Institutions have pulled out 800 million, but I'm still holding firm at 76,000
To be honest, I’m a bit confused tonight — institutions are pulling out, yet the price stubbornly refuses to drop. Who exactly is holding it up?
On Friday, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 412 million, with BlackRock alone accounting for 403 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflows; November has already seen 1.28 billion outflows. But $BTC is currently at 75,982, down only 0.17% in 24 hours. Last night’s 74,888 low wasn’t broken, and 76,000 has been tested all day.
My inclination is: outflows are real, but someone is buying at 76,000. The outflows are real cash, but the price not dropping indicates strong support. On Thursday, the whole network exploded with 1.26 billion in longs, 1.12 billion of which were leveraged, and most of the leverage has been washed out, leaving those unwilling to leave.
On the flip side, we have to acknowledge: continuous institutional outflows are not trivial. If next week follows the same pace, 76,000 breaks down, 74,888 breaks again, the next stop is 73,000. Then holding on at this level will be a joke.
So here’s a straightforward question: do you think ETF outflows mean institutions are the first to run, 76,000 will eventually break, and now is the time to catch the falling knife? Or do you think outflows are just outflows, 76,000 holding means a bottom, and betting near 75,000 to rebound to 80,000?
Just a market record, not investment advice #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 There is a key clause in the $AKE OKX Terms of Service: OKX may appoint "Affiliated Market Makers," who can make markets on the platform for their own accounts, hold positions opposite to those of users, and are under no obligation to act solely in your interest. The terms even explicitly state that user trades may be matched directly with these affiliated parties, and users agree not to claim against OKX for such transactions.$JUP
Aggregators sit between traders and liquidity, which gives Jupiter a view of much of Solana's trading flow. That position is valuable but not locked in, since users can switch routes in seconds. Its long-term story depends on whether it can add products beyond swaps while keeping that routing edge.$DOT
Polkadot pitched shared security for connected chains years ago, and the market has since offered many alternative designs. The architecture is still thoughtful. What remains uncertain is whether developers want its parachain model or prefer lighter options, and that gap shows up in ecosystem activity rather than in roadmaps.#Berkshire's massive cash reserves, the earnings report will reveal the latest developments The market is highly anticipating Berkshire's earnings report, with the core focus on changes in this "ammunition stockpile." Previously, cash plus short-term government bonds once approached a historic high of $400 billion, then slightly declined in the second quarter. The funds were mainly used to increase holdings in Google and boost share buybacks, without initiating a full-scale buying spree, maintaining an overall cautious stance.
There are two reasons behind the high cash balance: first, current US stock valuations are relatively high. After a surge in AI tech stocks, there are few large targets that meet Berkshire's return threshold; combined with the Federal Reserve's high interest rate environment, short-term debt yields attractive interest, making holding cash while earning coupon income a cost-effective defensive choice. Second, the insurance business needs to reserve sufficient liquidity to cope with catastrophic claims and other unexpected expenses, so this fund is not entirely "bottom-fishing capital" waiting to be deployed.
This earnings report focuses on three key points: month-over-month changes in cash, whether stocks are net sold or continue targeted accumulation, and the scale of buybacks. If cash surges again, it indicates Abel's judgment that market risks remain, which is a somewhat bearish "Buffett signal"; if cash significantly decreases and there is widespread buying of quality equity, it means institutional long-term funds recognize the prices after this round of adjustment. If only slight buybacks and sporadic accumulation occur, it indicates waiting for a larger-scale pullback. $BTC $ETH $SOL On November 5th, the market really panicked......
The exchange spot active trading volume difference (SVD) heavily shifted to the sell side, reaching the highest peak since the market rally started in August, and even surpassing the active selling pressure triggered by the Binance incident on October 30th.
Deeper sell-side dominance brought lower prices, and based on this, we cannot determine whether the buy orders have become thicker. Unless the next similar active selling pressure does not result in lower prices.
A Binance black swan event, a US stock market crash, two consecutive shocks in a short time have stretched the market nerves to the limit and dealt a significant blow to bullish confidence. Many people have started to doubt: has the bear market really ended? If the US stock market continues to crash, where will it take BTC?
People are often most afraid of the unknown darkness. This is when we need data to help us see more clearly. In my personal experience, it takes at least several weeks or even a couple of months for the market to digest panic sentiment; the probability of a direct V-shaped rebound is low.
For us, whether setting stop-loss points or finding entry points, this period requires close attention to changes in investor behavior, sentiment, and chip structure. If you are interested, you are welcome to join the subscription area for joint discussion, where more data will be synchronized in a timely manner.
Reposted from MurphyThe grid looked quite lively yesterday, but the underlying structure isn't as pretty as it seems on the surface. Can the profits and losses really prove the strategy's effectiveness? I watched that set of grid data for a long time yesterday: the spread grid pocketed 40u, the rebate was 20u, and the take-profit grid had a floating profit of over 100u. Just looking at these columns, it really seems like a little machine steadily spitting out candy🍬. But at the same time, the heavy position bet on SanDisk lost more than 10,000u, wiping out months of hard work in one go. This contrast is more worth seeing than any profit screenshot—it reminds me that the "liveliness" of the grid and the "structure" of the account are often two different things. First, let's break down the event itself. The grid profits from volatility and spreads, essentially making small profits frequently; the rebate is a subsidy from the exchange, an external infusion; the 100+ u in the take-profit grid is more like a paper profit, and it depends on whether it can actually be realized later. Meanwhile, the SanDisk position was a concentrated, large, directional bet, and losing over 10,000u directly swallowed up the previous fragmented gains. The problem isn't that the grid doesn't work, but that the position structure mixed in something completely opposite to the grid logic: one relies on discipline to capture small fluctuations, the other relies on conviction to bet on big directions. The cross-market linkage line is even more worth noting. SanDisk is a name in the storage chip chain, and its price sentiment will transmit through semiconductors, AI hardware, and risk appetite. If this sector continues to be favored, storage, computing power, and AI narratives in altcoins are easily dragged along; conversely, if the hardware side corrects, BTC and ETH usually hold up first, and the real bleeding starts with high-beta altcoins and these kinds of concentrated bets.Saw some impressive data today: Canton Network accounts for $320.7 billion out of the $366 billion "tokenized assets" on RWA.xyz, a clear leader by a wide margin.
Breaking it down, this $320 billion almost entirely comes from Broadridge alone — the financial giant handling U.S. Treasury repo clearing, which processed $7.5 trillion in transactions just in September.
More importantly, these assets are called represented, meaning they are only recorded on their own ledger and cannot be freely transferred on-chain.
So this is not "RWA on-chain"; it's basically traditional finance moving internal ledgers to a different place. Analysts also say Canton now acts more like a bookkeeping layer, not a distribution layer.
With a $320 billion volume, the network's daily fees are only $1.3 million. Next time you see a headline like "RWA breaks X trillion," first ask: how much of that can truly circulate on-chain?
#RWA #Web3 #CantonThe number of bulls does not equal money
I don't bet based on headcount.
Binance SOL perpetual has 78.31% of accounts long, OKX spot is $89.80, this ratio is not the proportion of bullish funds. Accounts vary in size; more people does not mean more money.
$SOL
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC is very small. The buy near sell far quote spread is +1.24%, with the first-level pair size about $15; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.15%. Small orders can probe, but volume expansion must look at deeper levels.
For $SOL, the first-level negative spread of buy near sell far is deeper than the mark price spread. Near-month annualized +5.55%, far-month annualized +0.62%, the near end is more expensive; mark price near-far spread is -0.07%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread is -1.34%. Without the first level, cost cannot be estimated.Three factors combined determine the current strategy: On 11-05, after a volume surge decline, the price downwardly engulfed the previous day's gains (bearish engulfing), confirming the distribution zone above 80,000 → overall bias is bearish. 74,500–74,900 is the quintuple resonance Gann lifeline (main cycle 1/4 + square 45° + April 2025 low + current low + BOLL lower band) → do not chase shorts at support. 76,270–76,530 and 77,320–77,530 are two Gann resistance bands → good short positions are only at the rebound to these resistance bands. Therefore, the strategy is: short at resistance, mostly trade after lifeline confirmation, no action in between. Today's (11-07 Saturday) execution checklist: Do not open new positions. The current price is in the middle of the range, liquidity is thinnest on weekends (1H volume only 141 BTC), orders will only lose profit to slippage. Set three price alerts: 74,500 / 76,550 / 77,320. Tomorrow (11-08) watch 75,432 (1x1 angle line next day value); if broken down, it turns weak, but do not chase shorts, wait for 74,500 to clear positions, then wait for Monday's US market $BTC. Monday to Wednesday (11-09 to 11-11) decision window: 11-10 = 300-day time window after 1/14 high; 11-11 = intersection of ascending 1x1 and 76,270 resistance band → price and time simultaneously reach a critical point. Actions may appear Monday/Tuesday with volume closing above 7This is a historic-level signal for BTC.
BTC mining difficulty has not returned to its peak for 374 consecutive days. The peak was 155.97T on October 29, 2025. The previous longest stretch in history was 364 days after the 2011 crash, followed by 253 days after China's mining ban in 2021. This time, 374 days, breaks the historical record.
What does this mean? From last October until now, for over a year, miners' computing power has been shrinking continuously. In June, the difficulty dropped to a low of 124.93T, 20% less than the peak. Although it bounced back to 148T in October, it is expected to drop another 3.7% on November 13.
Why is this happening? Three reasons: First, BTC prices are sluggish, miners are not profitable and have shut down; second, publicly listed mining companies are selling BTC and even shifting mining machines and electricity to AI computing power; third, after the Democratic midterm elections, data center restrictions are expected, worsening miners' outlook.
I have been trading for fifteen years, and this data is a contrarian indicator—miners surrendering and difficulty continuously dropping have appeared at every major cycle bottom in history. When miners can no longer hold on and shut down, it is often the darkest moment.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $AKE extremes will reverse; the shorts at the top have stretched the battle line so long, and the long leverage positions have all been liquidated. The remaining longs without leverage no longer care whether it falls or not. Further drops will only attract hungry wolves outside the market. Based on this, it can be inferred that currently, the stop-profit and stop-loss orders of shorts inside the market are more likely to be triggered. If you were the market maker, which side would you play next? Last night when the data came out, I had an open position.
October added 165,000 jobs, expected 65,000, more than double; unemployment rate didn’t rise but fell, from 4.2% to 4.1%. The narrative of "economic weakness, rate cut in December" that had been hanging around for half a year disappeared overnight.
$BTC was hovering around 75,500, but as soon as the data came out, it broke 75,000 directly, hitting a seven-week low at 74,762. This isn’t panic selling, it’s positions recalculating; if interest rates don’t come down, valuations can’t hold.
I’ve been trading for fifteen years; I’m not afraid of bad data, I’m afraid when data contradicts my own judgment. I didn’t buy the dip tonight. The batch of longs at 75,500 was cut at 74,600, the loss wasn’t big, but when the direction is wrong, you can’t hold on stubbornly.
I can’t guess whether rates will be raised in December, nor is it necessary. Just watch if 74,200 can hold; if it breaks, the next support is 73,000. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $SPY
Is the strong non-farm payroll data a profit boost or valuation pressure for the broader market?
The US added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, significantly higher than the average monthly increase of 48,000 over the past 12 months. Employment shows resilience, and corporate demand may not slow down rapidly, but funding costs may not decrease quickly either.
The broader market depends on whether earnings growth can offset discount rate pressure. During sector divergence, index stabilization may also mask operational weakness in most companies.
I focus on earnings forecast revisions and market breadth. If more sectors raise earnings and the number of advancing stocks spreads, the recovery is healthier; if a few heavyweights drive gains while yields continue to rise, the index performance alone is insufficient to prove that risks have been resolved.$BTC 50x long positions holding on waiting for a rebound, even if the price remains unchanged, nearly 30% of the margin will be eaten up by funding fees in one month.
OKX BTC perpetual contracts have settled funding fees 279 times in nearly 93 days, with 257 times positive, meaning longs pay shorts, accounting for 92%.
In the past 30 days, 90 times totaled about 0.56% (calculated by position notional), converted to margin:
· 3x: about 1.7%
· 10x: 5.6%
· 20x: 11.2%
· 50x: 28%
Each time is only about 0.01%, deducted every 8 hours, so few people take it seriously. This round just turned negative today (−0.0004%), but negative rates have only appeared 22 times in nearly three months.
Leverage longs are not waiting for a rebound, they are paying rent every 8 hours.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX public API
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Memecoins aren't leading this leg down. They're cheapest to push.
$PEPE -4.55% on $19.6M; $BTC -0.5% on twenty times the turnover, a ninth of the move. Which means one percent costs PEPE $4.3M, $NEAR $7.3M, $XRP $18.6M.
I stay out before the open. I flip if PEPE prints $30M without a new low.
Cheap to push is cheap to bounce.
Fade it, or wait for the book?
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.
$PEPE $NEAR $XRP
#Pepe #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Altcoins #BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $416 million this year. This is a critical turning signal: spot ETFs have long been a source of incremental funds since their launch, but now the funds have turned from positive to negative this year, indicating a general weakening in institutional allocation willingness.
The core pressure comes from the macro side: non-farm payroll data remains strong, the market has delayed rate cut expectations, U.S. Treasury yields stay high, and the appeal of the interest-free asset Bitcoin declines. Institutions prioritize returning to U.S. Treasuries and cash for defense. Coupled with the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress, expectations for tighter crypto regulation have intensified, leading funds to reduce exposure in advance and increase risk-averse redemptions.
Structurally, differentiation is obvious: top products continue to see large outflows, but not all ETFs are being redeemed; some products still have small inflows, representing growing institutional divergence rather than a one-sided flight. Meanwhile, the pace of corporate treasury accumulation has slowed, weakening the buying force that originally absorbed selling pressure, thus weakening the supply-demand pattern and amplifying price volatility.
It is important to distinguish: the cumulative outflow scale this year is not extreme and has not reached panic-level stampede; it is more of a portfolio rebalancing. However, continuous outflows will suppress rebound heights, and each rise is likely to encounter redemption selling pressure. Going forward, key focus should be on U.S. Treasury yields, SEC regulatory developments, and weekly fund flows. If large outflows persist, it will further weaken the bulls' confidence.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $UP This is very likely a bull trap!
After a sharp rebound from a steep drop at a high level, although it looks fierce and has risen above the short-term moving average, the resistance from the previous high's trapped positions above is very heavy. As the price climbs, the bullish momentum indicator's red bars are visibly shortening, showing that the upward momentum is seriously exhausted.
Looking at the underlying chip structure, the long-short ratio is 1.05, almost evenly matched, and the funding rate is still positive. This means the bulls are holding positions at a loss, and the market has not formed an extreme situation where shorts are forced to cover. Without short squeeze as fuel, why would the main force kindly push the price up strongly?
The most likely scenario is a weak rally followed by a rapid pullback, continuing to test the real support below. The margin of safety for entering now is almost zero, and the risk-reward ratio is very poor. I absolutely will not chase the high to take the bag; I will patiently wait for it to pull back and stabilize on the right side, or break key support before going short accordingly.
Never catch a falling knife, even if its rebound looks very tempting.特斯拉正在考虑一次重大的产品战略调整，Cybertruck 这款曾经备受期待的电动皮卡，可能要提前结束它的生产周期了。 根据目前披露的计划，马斯克打算从2027年年中开始逐步停止得州工厂的 Cybertruck 生产，并将更多产能转移到 Cybercab 项目。 要知道，Cybertruck 最初曾将年销量25万辆作为目标，但2025年美国市场的实际销量只有约2万辆，距离最初的预期仍有很大差距。 股价方面，特斯拉近期也经历了明显波动。周四大跌10.77%，周五随后反弹约4.2%，收盘价回到358美元附近。 我认为，这次产能调整可能是特斯拉重新分配资源的重要一步。既然产品销量不及预期，继续投入大量产能未必划算，将资源转向更有增长潜力的业务或许是更合理的选择。 但真正的问题在于：Cybercab 能否成为特斯拉下一阶段的增长引擎？ 特斯拉第三季度营收约280亿美元，但营业利润同比减少56%，汽车业务的利润压力已经相当明显。与此同时，自动驾驶技术的发展、测试和商业化落地仍需要持续投入。 Cybertruck 至少已经具备实际销售基础，而 Cybercab 未来能否进入更多市场、实现大规模运营Here's a harsh truth: Most people only hear about the Ahr999 indicator for the first time after they've already lost money.
Today, Bitcoin fell below 76,000, currently at 75,985 USD. The indicator dropped to 0.4310, re-entering the bottom-fishing zone below 0.45. In plain terms — by its own historical standards, it's considered cheap now.
But cheap can be deceiving. From the end of May to mid-August this year, it also stayed below 0.45 for 82 days. So entering the range and hitting the bottom aren't the same thing; there's a two-month-long ECG in between.
I'm not guessing the bottom; I'm planning to split the money for buying $BTC into several parts, buying a portion each time it dips. After all, historically it has stayed below 0.45 for 655 days, so no need to rush. With the midterm elections approaching, Hyperliquid risks are heating up. If the Democrats take Congress, it is highly likely to become a key investigation target. Not an outright ban, but legislative regulation, scrutinizing high-leverage perpetuals, US stock perpetuals, US user access, and HYPE token buybacks. The Bloomberg interview signals this clearly. Jeff changed into a suit to connect with Wall Street and cooperate with ICE, essentially to hedge in advance. Using ICE's compliance channelThe figure of 76,000 USD was rewritten today. Bitcoin is currently priced at 75,985.46 USD, Ahr999 has dropped to 0.4310, falling back below 0.45; the last time it was at this level was before August 20.
The indicator logic is not complicated: it compares the current price with a period's dollar-cost averaging cost and a long-term valuation anchor. The lower the ratio, the cheaper the current price is relative to the historically reasonable buying price. 0.45 is the line drawn by the market. Falling below it does not mean an immediate rise; it means that buying in batches changes from an optional choice to one with statistical advantage.
The time length is worth noting. From May 29 to August 19, the indicator stayed below 0.45 for about 82 days. The last time it entered the bottom-fishing zone was not a single spike but a window of more than two months. Historically, it has accumulated 655 days, which is a rare state and definitely not a short-term signal that ends in a few days.
The driving force is not internal to the crypto circle. The background of this round of decline is the retreat of AI trading in the US stock market, with liquidity being withdrawn from risk assets, putting pressure on Bitcoin. The pressure comes from external capital contraction, not from issues on-chain or in the ecosystem.
The judgment is as follows: long-term dollar-cost averaging investors can act here, but dividing the funds into several parts and spreading them weekly fits its historical pattern better than going all-in at once; for short-term traders, 0.4310 is not a buy signal, it only indicates that the downside space is relatively limited.
A point worth pondering: the indicator tells you whether it is expensive or cheap, but not how cheap is enough. The drop during those 82 days was even deeper. $SNDK
【Thinking about making ultra-short-term trades on SNDK this weekend? I advise you to stop!】
Brothers, if you want to make a little profit over the weekend, I think it's a bit risky. The screenshot shows a "market closed" status, no guidance from the spot market, it's all about contract funds battling it out. Weekend liquidity is extremely poor, and manipulative whales can easily spike the price up or down; you might not earn a single point, and your principal could be gone first.$BTC $ETH Brothers, this time I am bullish on Ethereum. Short-term sharp rises and falls can easily confuse people, so we must look at the weekly chart: in the past year, ETH rarely experienced a continuous 5-week decline with such a small drop; the recent decline has clearly narrowed, structurally resembling a bearish exhaustion. This is the heaviest position I've taken, holding to see a third wave rise. Similarly for BTC, its rhythm is usually half a beat slower than ETH—last night BTC hit a new low, but ETH did not break below 2200, and the relative strength already tells the story. My personal view: don't be scared off by daily noise; after weekly consolidation, ETH is more likely to take off first, followed by BTC. The key is whether ETH can break the previous high with volume.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元