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I've been consistently shorting Bitcoin $BTC throughout this week, and today the strategy finally delivered a significant result! I personally achieved a 700% return, while several fellow traders who followed my analysis also made thousands of dollars. So, what makes me so confident about maintaining a bearish position on Bitcoin? Let me explain my reasoning. 📊 Comparing the Market Structure Ethereum $ETH started its move around 1,900 on August 19, climbed to a high of 2,860, and has recentlyThe easiest thing to get carried away with when watching the market is staring at large orders.
When you see millions of dollars traded on the screen, your fingers immediately itch, thinking the money is coming in and the price must go up, right? But often the order is filled and the price doesn't move at all.
Gold has played out like this twice in the past two days. A $1.149 million long order came in at 3905, and the price really stopped falling and even broke 3940. But when a $7.89 million long order came in at 3943.63, the price still dropped; having more money doesn't help.
So I only trust large orders halfway, and the other half depends on whether the price respects the order after it's filled. Right now, there's buying support between 3940 and 3945; let's see if $PAXG can hold that level first.Gold has been moving very textbook-like these past two days, worth breaking down.
The 3905–3900 support zone mentioned yesterday afternoon took effect, XAU pulled back and then rebounded, breaking resistance and reaching a high of 3979. What’s worth watching is not the price increase, but the price reaction after three large orders were executed.
First, look at 3905: a $1.149 million long order was executed, the price stopped falling, then broke through 3940. After the money entered, the price moved accordingly, the support is real.
Next, look at 3950: a $2.3526 million sell-to-close long order was executed, which normally would push the price down, but instead it didn’t fall and rose all the way to 3979. The sell order didn’t create pressure, indicating there was more aggressive buying support below.
But there are counterexamples at the same level. The $2.4 million sell-to-close short order at 3950 and the $7.89 million long order at 3943.63 didn’t stop the pullback. The buy orders were executed but didn’t hold the price.
Putting these four orders together, the conclusion is simple: large orders themselves are not signals; the feedback after execution is what matters. If the price doesn’t fall after a sell order executes, it’s bullish; if it doesn’t rise, selling pressure is effective. If the price doesn’t rise after a buy order executes, it’s bearish; if it stops falling, the support is effective.
Currently, large buy orders are being executed around 3940–3945, playing a supporting role. $PAXG and $XAUT are most closely linked to gold prices and can be watched simultaneously; $BTC follows the same interpretation. One question remains: if the buying at this level is eaten up but the price doesn’t fall, do you see it as support or as someone slowly unloading their position?The Crypto Chessboard After the Midterm Elections: BTC Holds Steady, ETH Experiences Underlying Currents
Before the dust settles on the midterm elections, Trump has temporarily paused strikes against Iran, but geopolitical risks remain. What truly moves the crypto market is the new map of Capitol Hill.
The mainstream expectation points to a "minority majority" rather than a decisive majority—whether losing one or both chambers, a regulatory deadlock is highly likely to continue. The already effective GENIUS Act will not be repealed by the new Congress, while the CLARITY Act fell short in a Senate procedural vote at 49:50 before the election, making its passage in 2026 nearly impossible. If the Democrats take the House, they gain hearing, subpoena, and investigative powers, but not the votes to rewrite laws; the presidential veto remains a firewall, with a very low probability of being overridden by two-thirds. Legislation remains frozen, and regulatory friction shifts from "Congressional legislation" to "committee investigations plus administrative enforcement."
For BTC, the pricing anchors are macro liquidity, dollar credit, and institutional allocation; the distribution of congressional seats does not directly alter these variables. Even if the Democrats sweep, BTC remains the most resilient crypto asset. But ETH is different—it is deeply tied to DeFi, market structure legislation, securities classification, and compliance pathways. The death of the CLARITY Act combined with increased Democratic scrutiny will suppress ETH's valuation elasticity. Under regulatory deadlock, BTC is resilient, ETH is sensitive, and divergence is the main theme.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ 🚨 BITCOIN IS NOT NECESSARILY ENTERING A BEAR MARKET!
Selling pressure on $BTC is showing signs of weakening as the current decline is significantly less than previous corrections.
Comparison of 4-week declines:
- November 2025: -30%
- January 2026: -35%
- May 2026: -28%
- Current: -12%
This indicates that selling intensity has decreased, opening the possibility for accumulation and recovery. However, BTC still needs to hold support and confirm a reversal before concluding the downtrend has ended.Midterm election vote counting shows Democrats leading in both the House and Senate, with Nasdaq futures dropping nearly 1% overnight. In the major banks' pre-game scenarios, a Democratic sweep was already considered the worst case, with the S&P fluctuating between -0.25% and +0.5%. Those predicting a drop of over 10% are calculating long-term impacts of higher taxes and increased regulation, not just one night's vote count. Since 1950, the S&P has never fallen in the 12 months following midterm elections, averaging a 15% rise. Tonight's sell-off is more about positioning than fundamentals. $110,900 is the number I most wanted to break down when I saw this opening position: it is the nominal position, not the principal, nor the maximum possible loss. In the material, Core Trader 19 opened a long $SNDK position with 10x leverage, amounting to 104.284 units. The result of this trade is still unknown, but what I want to understand more is: how much risk information can this amount actually tell me?
If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if there is no stop-loss condition and account equity available, just record this long position without upgrading it to an executable signal. It sounds a bit timid, but I think "someone dares to buy" and "the risk suits me" are two different things. 🤖
Assuming the price moves 1% against the position and the position size remains unchanged, the price loss on this position would be about $1,109, excluding fees; but how much of the account equity this represents is not provided in the material. My judgment is that the nominal amount can only estimate the profit and loss caused by volatility, and cannot alone determine how aggressive the trader is.
The advantage of this rule is that it stops me from imagining the confidence of a big player, but the flaw is obvious: the full risk control may not be visible on-chain, and incomplete data means skipping it, possibly missing opportunities. But at the self-learning stage, I prefer to accept missing signals. If you were to write this condition, would you require "a clear stop-loss must exist," or allow filtering by "assuming a 3% adverse move, loss not exceeding 1% of account equity"?The latest September JOLTS report adds some new nuances to the employment outlook: about 7.52 million job openings, an increase in voluntary quits, and overall little change in hiring and layoffs.
I pay particular attention to voluntary quits. Willingness to leave current positions often means someone has found a new job or believes reemployment opportunities are still decent. This alone cannot prove wages will accelerate soon, but it does indicate the labor market is not just about a slowdown in hiring.
This also explains why September's job gains were weak and why the Federal Reserve has not easily shifted its stance. Net new jobs are just the outcome; the underlying flows of company hiring, employee job changes, and layoffs also need to be considered.
However, JOLTS covers September, while this week's nonfarm payrolls cover October, so you can't use data from the previous month to prematurely declare the next month's outcome. The two reports also have different survey scopes.
What makes it difficult now is that each data set only provides part of the picture. A small increase in jobs does not necessarily mean large-scale layoffs; an increase in quits does not guarantee everyone quickly finds a new job.
At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, I will wait for the new jobs, wages, and revisions to come out together. December rate hike expectations may adjust accordingly, but before the report is released, it's still too soon to piece together several clues into a definite conclusion.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 The only highlight for LTC is the halving in August next year. I made a prediction chart. When will this coin start? What do you think? $LTC $ZRO
This morning I saw a sentence: 'LayerZero weekly rebound leads, up 29% from the low point.' That's not wrong, from 1.42 to 1.86, it is indeed still near the top of the rebound list.
But when I checked my own portfolio, today is bearish. The daily open was 1.8979, now 1.8576, down two points intraday. That +8.3% was accumulated during yesterday daytime.
What’s stranger is the open interest. The whole network has over 90 million open contracts, but OKX perpetual contracts only have 9.05 million USD, with 24-hour volume just over 20 million. For a rebound of this scale, leverage basically hasn’t entered; the money is on other exchanges and spot markets.
The fee rate is 0.0045%, annualized less than 5%, and the bulls aren’t even willing to pay a premium. The candle at 11 o’clock pulled back from 1.793 to 1.857, volume increased to 550,000 contracts, the largest among these twelve candles, someone is buying at this position.
I don’t see this as the start of a trend, it looks more like a correction after a drop. If it really wants to go up, we first need to see when OKX’s open interest catches up.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $SNDK
From 1150.3 to 1049.1, in four hours.
At 7 AM, it still touched 1150.3, forming a double top with yesterday's 10 PM at 1155.8, but the next four hourly candles were all bearish, and at 11 AM it directly dropped to 1049.1, down more than eight points from the high, now at 1081.7.
When I wrote this at midnight, the surge was a reduction of positions, and the funding rate was only 0.0023%. Now it's 0.051%, a twentyfold increase. The price fell, and the bulls started paying to hold their positions. The open interest hasn't dropped either, 123 million, slightly more than the 119 million at midnight.
This isn't about how fierce the bears are, but that the bulls refuse to give up. The KOSPI in South Korea fell 4% intraday today; the two storage companies have the largest weight in the index, and SanDisk's line follows the storage sentiment, no escape.
I don't take this kind of trade. A decline with open interest not dropping and funding rates still rising is usually halfway down the mountain.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ It feels like all earnings expectations need to be adjusted; the market is really terrible. From the US stock market to cryptocurrencies, everything is overshadowed by the big outcome of the midterm elections. If the time until $CRCL announces its earnings were a bit longer, I might not think it will exceed expectations.
Currently, I still believe $CRCL's revenue will likely continue to grow this earnings season, but the profit side may not bring surprises to the market. In other words, the stock price might decline in the following trading days.
Whether USDC's scale growth can truly convert into profits will be the key to the subsequent trend!
Circle will announce its Q3 2026 earnings before the US market opens on November 4. The market expects revenue of about $789 million and adjusted earnings per share of about $0.42.
From a fundamental perspective, USDC remains Circle's largest growth engine. In Q2, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, and on-chain transaction volume reached $14.8 trillion, a 151% year-over-year increase.
Federal Reserve interest rate changes will affect reserve asset yields, and rising Coinbase distribution costs may also erode Circle's profit margins.
Additionally, the new business revenue brought by the launch of the Arc mainnet is actually very poor. It's the dumbest chain, and whether it can generate sustainable income still needs time to verify.
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Whether this distribution cost can be controlled, and whether more revenue sharing will be required when negotiating cooperation with more partners in the future, needs special attention.
Distribution cost refers to the fees Circle pays to partners to promote USDC and increase its usage.
Simply put:
Circle issues USDC itself and invests USDC's reserve assets (mainly cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds) to earn interest. But for USDC to truly circulate, exchanges, wallets, payment platforms, and other channels need to help promote and use it. These channels won't help for free, so Circle has to share part of the interest income it earns with them; this part is the distribution cost.
It directly determines how much profit Circle can ultimately keep:
Profit ≈ Reserve interest income − Distribution cost − Other expenses. Where did the 18,270 BTC stolen from Binance go?
Not a single BTC from the batch stolen from Binance has moved to this day.
Last week, Binance's hot wallet was hacked, losing 18,270 BTC. On-chain, the attacker dispersed these funds across 19 addresses, and so far there has been no activity—no coin mixing, nor transfers to exchanges.
During the same period, the exchange's net transfers fluctuated wildly: during the decline, daily net inflows once reached about 11,500 and 8,000 BTC, followed by a net outflow of about 40,000 BTC; after the hacker incident, BTC spot ETFs recorded a single-day net outflow as high as $643 million.
Once this batch of BTC starts moving, Orbit will be livelier than during the New Year celebrations. Can't wait.Today, the index and accounts are two different matters.
In the A-share morning session, Suochen Technology, a physical AI company, hit the 20% daily limit. AI comic companies Dasheng Culture, Zhejiang Film Industry, and Longban Media all achieved three consecutive daily limits. Small metal company Yunnan Germanium also hit the limit, making the market look quite lively. However, within the first hour, the two markets shrank by 67.1 billion yuan, with over 3,000 stocks declining. Computing hardware surged then fell back, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communications turning negative. Those chasing the morning session likely ended up holding positions at close.
US chip stocks took a hit; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.64%, SanDisk rose over 4%, and Nvidia rose 2.26%, regaining the title of the world's largest market cap. However, the Dow Jones fell 0.38%, Apple dropped nearly 2%, Tesla fell 1.32%, and the seven giants are no longer moving in unison.
$BTC broke a new low again after 2 PM, with Binance spot hitting 76388, and $ETH holding around 2247. In the past 12 hours, the entire network liquidated 298 million, with long positions accounting for 271 million. BTC liquidations were 67.8 million, ETH liquidations were 40.35 million. The key point is that contract positions are increasing even as prices fall, rising from 7.46 billion to 7.65 billion. With this structure, it’s indeed difficult to see a decent rebound.
The index is holding, money is shrinking, and the cost of chasing highs
Is always greater than staying put. Still relying on treasury increases to brainwash yourself? Take a look at the ETF fund flows.
Spot BTC ETF has a cumulative net outflow of 1.042 billion, with total net assets dropping to 98.1 billion.
Strategy bought 65.5 million to acquire 811 BTC, while on the other side, it directly took out 208 million to repurchase preferred shares. Strive increased holdings by 124 BTC, relying on 15% annualized financing.
This is not a large-scale entry, just accounting maneuvers.
BTC is stuck in the 77,000–80,000 range, fluctuating, down 0.61% intraday, with buying momentum fading.
No need to say more about ETH.
Funds continue to flee; whenever BTC turns, it falls faster than anyone else. Occasionally it rallies along, but that's just riding the wind, without its own main force.
Don't expect corporate treasuries to save the day. They are doing business, not carrying retail investors. Sporadic increases can't fill the hole left by ETF outflows.
Without sustained inflows, 80,000 is a very difficult barrier to cross.
Jumping in now to catch the falling knife means taking chips that institutions are offloading in batches.
$BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 $UNI is very strong
1. Because Binance still hasn't opened withdrawals, it means the missing coins haven't been replenished enough. Once withdrawals are opened, the strong opportunity will disappear and it will follow the overall market.
2. UNI and ETH share the same wallet code. ETH withdrawals have already opened, but UNI hasn't, which can help support my judgment. $ETH Fellow retail investors, take a look at this ETH liquidation chart!
Around 2167, there are 717 million long positions buried, and above at 2482, there are 607 million short positions pressing down. 😭
Right now it's grinding back and forth in the middle, a typical meat grinder scenario. No matter which side breaks first, it will aggressively sweep the positions on that side, specifically targeting those rushing in to chase the pump or dump. 😭
Both sides have piled up large orders so thicklyOn November 3rd, BTC fluctuated narrowly between $76,400 and $77,000. The liquidation heatmap shows an asymmetric structure: breaking above $80,854 triggers $1.637 billion in short liquidations; breaking below $73,494 triggers $1.013 billion to $1.587 billion in long liquidations. The volume above is larger, while the depth below is closer (only about 4.5%). This is called "asymmetric convergence." Above, the $80,000 level is a long-term psychological resistance. Whales and retail investors use high leverage (13x) to pile on shorts here, and hedge funds also add short positions through CME Micro Bitcoin futures. Referencing the breakout above $80,000 in May 2026, there was $104 million in short liquidations within one hour and a 1.56% price increase — the current scale is larger, theoretically making the short squeeze stronger. However, there is a lack of momentum: spot Bitcoin ETFs lost over $1.04 billion cumulatively on October 30 and November 2, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing over $400 million outflow in a single day; tech stocks are weak, and midterm elections are approaching. Below, three points: First, the position structure is better, with Strategy's average cost at $75,451, close to the current price and still increasing holdings; longs below are more based on long-term value judgment rather than speculation. Second, spot support is stronger, with liquidity in Bitcoin's 1% price range order book exceeding that on the crash day in October 2025 by about 75%; market makers are investing real capital, which makes liquidation pressure more likely to "soft land." Third, the buffer is closer, giving longs time to organize defense. Hard does not mean unbreakable. Breaking below $73,494 will still#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货
The leader has something to say
On November 3rd, the CFTC allowed the first U.S. single-stock perpetual futures, permitting related products to be traded on exchanges registered with both the CFTC and SEC. The first batch was filed by Nadex, covering Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, using cash settlement with no expiration date.
I believe this is a landmark event where the crypto derivatives model successfully "forces" traditional finance. Previously, these perpetual contracts with no expiration and high leverage were exclusive to the crypto world; now they have directly entered the U.S. stock derivatives market.
However, there is significant resistance. On the same day, organizations supported by Cboe, Citadel Securities, and others filed lawsuits questioning its regulatory classification. The comments section is insightful; the opening of U.S. stock perpetuals means Hyperliquid is about to enter a new phase. This is a battle for pricing power and jurisdiction over the derivatives market, and Wall Street's traditional giants will not yield easily.
On the market front, BTC is currently oscillating between 77,000 and 80,000. Let's see if it can hold above 80,000; if not, expect a deeper pullback. Resistance is between 84,000 and 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Positive news for Circle
Ark Invest increases holdings of $CRCL
I believe the most important logic here is stablecoins.
USDC issued by Circle is no longer just a simple dollar stablecoin; it has become a crucial infrastructure for payments, trading settlement, and on-chain finance in the crypto market.
If the crypto market continues to move towards compliance in the future, the application scenarios for stablecoins may further expand:
Payment sector: Stablecoins have the potential to become important tools for cross-border payments and international settlements.
Financial sector: The development of RWA, tokenized stocks, and other businesses requires stablecoins to provide settlement infrastructure.
Institutional sector: More and more traditional financial institutions are exploring on-chain business, and stablecoins may become the bridge connecting traditional finance and the crypto market.
Therefore, ARK increasing its holdings in Circle may be betting that the next phase of growth in the crypto industry will not only come from BTC price increases and trading volume growth but also from the maturation of underlying financial infrastructure.
First, the long-term value of the stablecoin sector is being re-recognized.
In the past, when people thought about the crypto market, they first thought of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and exchanges. But in the future, stablecoins may become one of the most important infrastructures in the entire industry.
Second, traditional capital may be shifting its narrative from trading to financial infrastructure.
Exchange performance is easily affected by market conditions, while stablecoins, payment, and settlement businesses have the opportunity to form broader application scenarios.
Third, institutions are not indiscriminately bullish on crypto stocks $BTC
This morning I wrote "Midterm elections are just noise for BTC," but 4 hours later I was proven wrong: the Democrats also secured key seats in the Senate, raising expectations of a "blue wave." BTC dropped to 75,734 at 11 o'clock, breaking below the October low of 76,265.
US stock market close (05:00) to 12:00, OKX perpetual contracts:
· Nasdaq 100 -1.8%, Nvidia -1.9%, S&P 500 -1.1%
· BTC -1.2% (intraday low -2.7%)
· Gold +0.6%; AMD earnings beat expectations +3.6%, but couldn't lift the market
The dollar fell to a 30-day low, US Treasury yields declined; according to textbook logic, BTC should rise, but it fell along with the Nasdaq. The market is trading on: congressional turnover, with crypto legislation possibly being delayed.
Revised judgment: House turnover was priced in early, the Senate was the surprise. Current price around 76,900, has reclaimed 76,265; if it closes holding above that, the break is false; if not, look for 75,734.
BTC is not afraid of elections, but fears unpriced outcomes.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX, Reuters, Bloomberg
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ The core theme of the current crypto market remains deleveraging. $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL are all in this round of deleveraging cycle, and the divergence in capital flows is worth noting. Bitcoin ($BTC) faces the heaviest selling pressure, with a 24-hour net spot outflow of $1.064 billion and a futures net outflow of $3.098 billion; the deleveraging pressure is not over yet. Ethereum ($ETH) shows conflicting capital signals: a four-hour net spot inflow of $37.06 million, but a simultaneous futures outflow of $171 million. The brief spot buying is insufficient to offset the withdrawal of funds on the derivatives side, so medium-term pressure remains. Solana ($SOL) spot performance is relatively stable, but futures funds have been continuously withdrawing over 24 hours, indicating the deleveraging process is also unfinished. Liquidation data also shows significant changes: the market first liquidated longs, and now shorts are also being liquidated. On the 3rd, total liquidation volume was $379 million, with longs accounting for nearly 90%; on the 4th, total liquidation slightly fell to about $367 million, with long liquidations still dominant, but short liquidations have risen to $78.72 million. By coin, over 60% of Bitcoin ($BTC) liquidations are longs, with buyers still being squeezed out; for Ethereum ($ETH) and Solana ($SOL), shorts account for a higher proportion of liquidations, with sellers starting to suffer losses from the rebound. This is only the latter half of the leverage cleanup, not a market recovery. When both longs and shorts face forced liquidations, the market is merely probing the bottom and has no foundation for stabilization yet. Next,The $1.042B of combined ETF outflows across Oct. 30 and Nov. 2 matters because it outweighed the reported corporate additions, even as Strategy and Strive kept buying. Strive's 15% preferred-share dividend also shows that institutional demand can persist while becoming more expensive to fund. Whether ETF flows stabilize is the missing evidence.
#BTCInstitutionalDemand #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ 宏观经济影响？
The vote counting phase of the U.S. midterm elections has begun. How will control of Congress change? What are the macroeconomic impacts?
The counting phase shows that the Democrats have secured the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains contested. However, the market baseline expectation is a "split Congress" (Democrats controlling the House, Republicans controlling the Senate). The core macroeconomic impact of this scenario is a policy deadlock replacing policy expansion.
On the fiscal side, Democratic control of the House means that the legislative space for large-scale tax cuts or fiscal stimulus is closed off, and expectations for deficit expansion are marginally reduced, putting downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar.
On the regulatory side, the technology and AI sectors face higher uncertainty: Democrats tend to strengthen scrutiny on data center energy consumption, antitrust issues, and AI safety, which may disrupt related capital expenditure rhythms. However, substantive federal legislation is still constrained by the presidential veto power, so the impact is more on short-term sentiment.
If the Senate also ends up under Democratic control, expectations for fiscal constraints and tighter regulation will strengthen simultaneously, putting more pressure on U.S. tech stocks, while gold would benefit from lower real interest rates and safe-haven demand.
Overall, a divided government limits large swings in macro policy, making it more likely that the economy will continue on its current path. Market focus will quickly return to the Federal Reserve's trajectory and inflation data.After reviewing the Binance $6.34 billion theft incident, I increasingly feel: the world is just a huge makeshift troupe.
An engineer downloaded poisoned AI software, another employee was tricked by a fake recruitment interview, hackers gradually infiltrated the internal system, and finally gained wallet access.
The most surreal part is that Binance urgently suspended withdrawals, yet money was still being transferred out.
You might think the world's top exchanges are impenetrable fortresses, but no matter how advanced the system is, it can't withstand human error.
Fortunately, Binance promised to cover the losses, but being able to compensate and not having incidents are two different things.
I've been dollar-cost averaging $BTC for 401 days, holding 1.7307 coins.
The exchange is responsible for buying coins, and once I accumulate a whole number, I transfer them to Ledger.
In this 30-year marathon, I don't want to put all my chips on someone else's makeshift troupe.
Would you dare to keep all your BTC on an exchange for 30 years? $UNI
If funds leave centralized platforms, will they automatically become long-term users of Uniswap?
On-chain swaps may accommodate migration demand, but one-time transfers, arbitrage, and continuous trading are different matters. A sudden increase in volume could also just be event-driven turnover.
I pay attention to trading depth, user retention, and fees after the event passes. If volume falls back but liquidity in core trading pairs remains stable, the migration still holds value; if depth declines in sync with fading interest, short-term volume spikes cannot be extrapolated as long-term growth.Ethereum has climbed back above $2,250, with the price once approaching $2,270.
However, the current funding situation for ETH remains less than ideal.
The US Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for five consecutive trading days, with about $155.7 million withdrawn on October 30 alone.
From October 26 to 30, the cumulative net outflow reached $431.4 million.
Notably, approximately 43.8 million ETH are currently staked, accounting for about 35.9% of the circulating supply. From 77337.8 to 75900, the price difference is about 1.86%. What I'm focusing on is this range, not the profit screenshot. The Core Trader 02 $BTC short position with 40x leverage closed about 16%, realizing a profit of $14,226.24.
If I were to write it as a strategy, I would first draft a version to be verified: if the price moves 1.8% favorably relative to the opening average price, reduce the position by 15%. This is a hypothesis I use for research and does not mean this wallet actually operates by this rule. I think using the price change of the underlying asset as the exit condition is more convenient for comparing trades with different leverage than using account return rate. 🤖
The advantage is that the condition is clear and executes once reached, no need to guess if it's the lowest point on the spot; partial realization also avoids having to hit the exact end of the entire move at once. But the flaw is obvious: 1.8% and 15% are too tailored to this single case. As a quantitative beginner, I am most prone to mistaking "explaining this trade" for "effective in the future."
If the market only fluctuates slightly, this threshold may not trigger for a long time; if the trend continues, fixed position reduction may prematurely shrink profit exposure. These are my deductions; a single profit cannot verify the rule. If you were to write the condition, would you choose a fixed percentage or adjust the threshold according to volatility? What data would you use to decide?I was looking at the meme comment section, and when I saw "the dealer hasn't left yet," I got a bit suspicious. The wallet hasn't moved, so does that mean it's just accompanying the retail investors? I can't tell if other wallets are selling or how many layers the chips have circulated through. This kind of information gap makes it hard to estimate the odds just by looking at price fluctuations. Yet some people even have plans for how the dealer will pump and when they'll dump. I haven't even figured out when to sell myself, so how do you already know their plans... At noon, I made a quick judgment: leverage is withdrawing, but spot coins are flowing into the exchange, which doesn't match. So I held back and waited until they aligned.
The BTC on the exchange increased by 12,900 coins, reaching a total of 2,593,000 coins, meaning the chips available for sale have thickened; but the futures side is a completely different picture. BTC positions rose 0.50% in 1 hour but dropped 3.58% over 24 hours; ETH positions increased 0.44% in 1 hour but fell 0.51% in 24 hours; SOL positions barely moved, up 0.05% in 1 hour but down 3.52% in 24 hours; ZEC is the only exception, up 1.67% in 1 hour and rising 5.05% over 24 hours.
From my reading, this is divergence itself: the spot side is stocking up, the futures side is reducing pressure. The slight uptick in 1 hour is just a pause during a 24-hour downtrend, not a reversal. ZEC moving up alone indicates ongoing differentiation, not a market-wide warming 👀. Chips arrive first, leverage leaves first, directions don't align, and price grinding isn't a signal.
The whole network saw liquidations of 398 million in one day, a significant scale, confirming that the pressure reduction is real, not just talk.
Tonight, ADP and ISM services data will be released. My conditions remain unchanged: I won't chase until the three major mainstream positions rise again; I won't add ZEC alone either. I'll wait until positions and spot directions realign before acting. If they don't align, I'll keep holding back ✋.Conclusion first: $XRP current price 1.259. Last night the Democrats took both chambers—Senate 51 seats, House 244 blue to 191 red, so the CLARITY Act will be delayed at least two more years.
The money bag has two layers:
1. Votes. The Democrats unanimously rejected the bill in September; TD Cowen said if Democrats sweep, it will be shelved for two years; a K Street survey shows only 27% expect it to pass before 2028. $BTC hit a low of 75,690 today.
2. Implementation method. Bill failure ≠ regulatory halt—the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on October 5, alongside BTC and ETH. Institutional guidance doesn't require Congress approval and comes earlier than legislation. This explains why $XRP closed against the trend today at 1.259 (+0.4%).
Three numbers:
① On 11-03 20:00, that 4H spike reached 1.291, with $109 million traded = 4.8 times the median.
② On 11-04 08:00, the result landed with a drop to 1.2412.
③ Positions dropped from 127 million to 123.3 million (-2.9%), funding rates were +0.01%/8h for two consecutive periods—longs paid during the decline.
Are you chasing the bill, or the policy already priced in?
Two years, is it worth holding $XRP to wait? $XRP #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
$BTC is not breaking sentiment, but position: On voting days in 2014/2018/2022, BTC was below the 200-day moving average by 35%, 9%, and 22% respectively; yesterday at 76,700, it was still 5% above the 200-day moving average (73,200).
The bear market was pre-positioned: bottomed at 57,850 on July 1, 125 days before voting day, the usual "election-induced bear bottom" played out early.
However: October closed down 7.3% (worst since 2014), ETFs saw $1.04 billion outflows in two days, and the probability of a rate hike in December remains 73%. Short term is volatility, not a trend.
Me: Not chasing, waiting for a pullback to 73,200 to observe the structure; if it breaks this line, the "break" turns into a "catch-up drop."
Are you waiting for a pullback, or have you already chased in? Today at the close of the A-shares market, the Shanghai Composite Index only fell 0.82%, while the ChiNext Index plunged 2.73%. The total market turnover was 1.7 trillion yuan, shrinking by 80.2 billion yuan compared to yesterday, with over 3,300 stocks declining. In the morning session, AI comic stocks like Wentou Holdings hit 5 limit-ups in 6 days, solid-state battery stock Zizhu Hi-Tech had two consecutive limit-ups, Longpan Technology hit the daily limit, and in food and beverage, Huangtai Liquor had three consecutive limit-ups. It looked quite lively, but in the afternoon, semiconductors and computing hardware weakened across the board, with Xinyisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communications all falling together. Hot sectors rotate faster than flipping a page; those who chased in the morning session most likely ended up empty-handed at the close.
Over in the US stock market, chip stocks rebounded somewhat: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.64%, SanDisk surged over 4%, Broadcom and AMD gained over 3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.83%. However, the Dow Jones fell 197 points, with Apple dropping nearly 2% due to warnings about rising storage chip costs, and Tesla also in the red. AMD jumped 9% after hours. Whether the indexes are up or down increasingly depends on the stocks you hold.
$BTC touched 76,500 but was pulled back again; the fear and greed index dropped 11 points in one day, down to 26. ETFs saw outflows of over 800 million USD in six days, with BlackRock alone redeeming 400 million. But on-chain whales reversed and increased holdings to 3.03 million coins, the strongest accumulation since February. $ETH also saw an address dump 37 million USD worth in five hours, sweeping up over 16,000 coins. Those in suits are selling, those with cold wallets are buying; the money hasn’t left, it’s just musical chairs.Trump has recently repeatedly declared: "I'm back, I want to make America great again, and I want Bitcoin to be mined/held in the US." The market immediately reacted: $BTC pulled back from the lower bound of the consolidation range in the short term, with volatility rising.
But note two points:
1. News is an emotional catalyst, not the trend itself.
Trump/election narratives tend to create "expectation trading": dumping before bad news lands → positive speeches/polls → short-term surge → real liquidity doesn't follow, so it falls back.
2. Currently, BTC looks more like high-level event-driven oscillation, unlike the major cycle bottoms in 2014/2018/2022.
The previous three times were bottoms after deep bear market drops; now if $BTC is still oscillating between tens of thousands to a hundred thousand, structurally it is closer to:
Macro narratives + ETF capital flows + options Gamma/Delta hedging jointly pricing, rather than simply "bottoming 13 days after the election."
Continuing the key signals I mentioned before:
· If the weekly chart still holds the previous low/key moving average support, and RSI does not make a new low, it indicates the bottom is not broken yet;
· If volume breaks below the previous low and stablecoin inflows stagnate, then the "election narrative" might just be a bull trap;
· If after Trump's speech only futures rally and spot does not follow, beware of a false breakout.
This time may not repeat the historical "bottoming at 71/39/13 days," because the market phase is completely different.
What matters now is: who is buying, how long they buy, and whether they can absorb selling pressure.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ What I noticed is that BTC's quote this time has slightly dropped below $76,000: according to PANews citing OKX market data, it is currently quoted at $75,995.10, down 2.19% intraday. This is somewhat interesting, but losing the round number support does not mean opportunities for small-cap coins have arrived. 👀
I tend to see this as a pressure signal on small-cap sentiment rather than a bottom-fishing signal. If BTC weakens and suppresses risk appetite, then high-volatility assets may face greater selling pressure; however, this news lacks data on small-cap trading and capital flows, so it cannot directly imply a broad market downturn. Volatility can amplify rebound potential but also magnify the cost of misjudgment.
Next, I will observe the relative strength of various sectors against BTC and whether rebounds are accompanied by trading volume. Rather than fixating on guessing the bottom at round numbers, I want to distinguish which movements are merely following sentiment swings and which truly have support.Looking at several news items together tonight is more honest than any valuation model. Meta is restarting bond issuance, planning to raise at least $20 billion more in the US and European markets; Deutsche Bank says SpaceX's AI computing power will reach 2.7GW by the end of the year. On one side, giants are borrowing money to pile up computing power, an unstoppable arms race.
But on the other side: even the most aggressive companies like ByteDance are starting to widely restrict employees from using Claude and Codex at their own expense, cutting even this AI spending.
The hand burning money is reaching further and further, while the hand doing the math is quietly pulling back. What’s really going to collapse this round is never the demand for AI, but the financing chain and valuation tension. The few short positions I hold are betting on this tension snapping. Once the string breaks, $BTC is on the same risk sheet—no one can escape.I've never quite understood: when the election results come out, everyone's social feed is flooded, but the K-line chart doesn't move at all.
Such a big event should cause some reaction, right? But on Polymarket, "Democrats sweep" has been stuck at 99.6% for a while, with $18.23 million in trading volume, meaning everyone had the answer figured out half a month ago.
When the moment of revelation finally arrives, there's actually nothing to watch. I've been watching $BTC for a while, and the most exciting thing is the headlines, not the market.
Trump said he accepts the results and is willing to cooperate, which is important, but no one is really waiting for that. The market stopped caring about who wins long ago; it only cares about who runs first after the win.$BTC $BTC has broken the midterm election cycle pattern, but the real test is whether buyers can hold the rebound
Before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, Bitcoin's position is completely different from the previous three election cycles. BTC has not traded below the long-term trendline but has changed hands around $76,990, about 5.2% above its 200-day simple moving average of $73,169.
This difference is worth noting.
On the day of the 2014 midterm elections, Bitcoin traded about 35% below its 200-day moving average. In 2018, the gap was about 9%; and in 2022, about 22%.
This time, the market has a stronger technical foundation entering the election.
#U.S.midtermelectionsenteringthecountingstage,howwillCongresscontrolchange? $BTC
The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, which is quite a coincidence.
Every midterm election period marks the end of a bear market. This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins.
The difference is that each bottoming time has been occurring earlier. $BTC $BTC November has just started, and institutional sell-off actions are still ongoing. According to Farside data, BTC had a net outflow of $399 million on November 2nd alone, marking two consecutive days of outflows, with a total of $711 million outflow in the past five days; ETH is weaker, with a single-day outflow of $140 million, six consecutive days of outflows, and a total outflow of $482 million in the past five days, accumulating $1.692 billion outflow in the past 22 days.
Comparing horizontally with last month, BTC had a total outflow of $516 million throughout October, and already $399 million outflow at the start of November; ETH had a total outflow of $1.607 billion last month, and continues to be under pressure this month. Interestingly, although redemptions continue, the market has not yet broken down, and there is still support.
From a long-term perspective, since the launch of the BTC spot ETF, the cumulative net inflow remains at $56.65 billion, with AUM maintained at $80.9 billion; ETH cumulative net inflow is $12.177 billion, so the foundation remains. But in my view, this is just a process of orderly institutional deleveraging, not a signal to enter the market. The key now is not to rush to bottom-fish, but to patiently wait for the turning point of this continuous redemption wave; only when the capital outflow stops is it a safer observation point. #The US midterm elections have entered the vote-counting phase, how will control of Congress change? Woke up to the results: the Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate, wresting dominance from the Republicans. Trump's statement is even more crucial—he said he would accept the results and is willing to cooperate with the Democrats.
What's interesting about this is that it was almost the least suspenseful election in history. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Democrats controlling both chambers" stalled at 99.6%, with about $18.23 million in trading volume on that option. Before the votes were even counted, the money had already decided the answer.
So why keep watching? Because markets never trade the outcome, they trade uncertainty. When an event shifts from "possible" to "certain," pricing ends, and what follows is a race to figure out what will happen next now that the outcome is known.
Institutions have given a direction: funds are moving from stocks to bonds, showing a clear risk-off sentiment. Australia's three-year government bond yield has dropped 15 basis points since early this week. Meanwhile, Democratic control of Congress will constrain Trump's growth agenda in AI and resource sectors.
For assets like $BTC, the logic is subtle. On one hand, political uncertainty fades, so risk appetite should recover; on the other, policy advancement faces greater resistance, forcing a recalculation of positions that had bet on regulatory easing.
So don't rush to ask whether prices will rise or fall. What's more worth pondering is: when the result was priced in at 99.6% before the vote, is the market now betting on the outcome itself, or on how others will interpret the outcome?The U.S. midterm elections vote is tomorrow, what should the crypto community watch?🤔
On November 3rd Eastern Time, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, with vote counting starting at 8 AM Beijing Time on November 4th. This election is not for the president, but for Congress: all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election, and 35 seats in the Senate are contested.Will $SNDK continue to decline? Divergence intensifies in the storage sector
Although Sandisk's earnings report shows impressive revenue and profit figures, and it holds large long-term customer agreements, with the long-term logic of NAND demand driven by AI inference established, the stock price still experienced a "good news priced in" pullback after the earnings release, and there is still a possibility of further short-term decline.
The market's core concern is not current profitability but expectations of the cycle peak. The market worries that the phase of NAND price increases and rapid gross margin expansion is nearing its end, with subsequent profit growth slowing down and valuations continuing to be compressed; coupled with high U.S. Treasury yields, high-valuation growth sectors are generally under pressure, and the semiconductor sector's overall sentiment is weak, which can easily lead to further stock adjustments.
The positive factors supporting the stock price are also clear: AI inference and KV caching continue to drive demand for data center flash memory, long-term agreements lock in orders for years, the tight supply pattern is expected to continue, and HBF high-bandwidth flash opens new possibilities, which can limit the depth of any decline.
Whether the decline will stop depends on three key points: NAND spot prices, overall sentiment in the storage sector, and U.S. Treasury yields. If sector sentiment recovers and storage prices remain strong, a stabilization and rebound may occur; otherwise, under liquidity pressure, the weakness and volatility may continue.The more turbulent the market undercurrents, the easier it is to lose direction
ETH right now is like a spring being pressed down tightly at the bottom
On the surface, it looks calm, but underneath the undercurrents have already started to stir
Look at this 4-hour chart, after the deep dip to 2174 a few days ago, the price has slowly climbed back to 2258.
In the past few days, it has been oscillating around 2260, many find it boring, but I tell you, this is called "trading time for space"
Although it is capped by EMA30 and EMA60 above, notice the short moving averages at the bottom have quietly started to turn upward
This is a typical accumulation signal; the longer it consolidates, the stronger the rebound will be.
Look at my long position, entered at 2215.71, now holding steady with +37.12% profit
Why am I so calm?
Open your eyes and look at my liquidation price at 1840!
There’s a moat of over 400 dollars in between, this thickness means even if the main force goes crazy and tries to spike the price, they simply can’t touch my bottom line.
With this confidence, I can comfortably sit in the audience and watch how the main force shakes out those impatient chips.
In terms of operation, we must not get carried away.
At the current 2258 level, chasing in directly risks getting caught in spikes up and down.
The smart move is to be patient; as long as it dares to pull back on low volume to around 2250 or even 2230, that’s a god-given opportunity to add to positions.
The first target above is to see if it can break and hold 2300 with volume.
Trading is not about who acts fastest, but who has the farthest vision and the steadiest seat.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Whales liquidate positions in protest, a whale loses $5.84 million in four days, yet ZEC bounces back to $1,200?
ZEC has surged about 2,400% this year, with a market cap around $20 billion, firmly in the top ten. But the community is in a civil war: the funding committee ZCG, which manages the money, automatically takes 8% of block rewards for five people, holding about 91,500 ZEC worth approximately $124 million in the pool, spending without token holder votes.
On October 31, major holder big z announced liquidation and exit, saying the money should be spent on cryptography; co-founder Sean Bowe called for financial restructuring, Naval supported capping funding at $50 million, and Tyler Winklevoss called it "taxation without representation." ZCG proposed to surrender and forgo a total of about $124 million in funding, but no formal proposal has been made yet.
According to Ember monitoring, a leveraged whale spent 31.78 million USDT over four days to buy 25,002 ZEC, then opened a long at a high on Hyperliquid, but was stopped out and fully closed on November 3, losing about $5.84 million in total over four days; on that day, ZEC briefly dropped 11% to $1,135.
But today it has rebounded to around $1,200, up about 7% in 24 hours — institutions are still buying, DCG previously bought $100 million of Grayscale ZEC Trust. Neither the internal conflict nor the liquidation suppressed the price; the NU7 upgrade on November 6 and the ZCG proposal are the next chapters.
$ZEC $BTC has broken the midterm election cycle pattern, but the real test is whether buyers can hold the rebound
Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, Bitcoin's position is markedly different from the previous three election cycles. BTC has not traded below the long-term trendline but has changed hands around $76,990, approximately 5.2% above its 200-day simple moving average of $73,169.
This difference is worth noting.
On the day of the 2014 midterm elections, Bitcoin traded about 35% below its 200-day moving average. In 2018, the gap was about 9%; and in 2022, about 22%.
This time, the market enters the election with a stronger technical foundation.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Ethereum rebounds leaving a step, WLD falls back below 0.375
$ETH 2283.01, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours, the fallback point has moved up, the rebound has layers ♦️
Earlier it fell back near 2250, the subsequent pullback mostly held around 2264, the quote still at 2283.01, the rebound not only surged but the pullback area also rose.
2309 was not held, but the lower area was not fully given up. I am a bit more optimistic about the phase recovery because the trading position after the drop has been raised, and the layering is worth recognizing.
$RE 0.304, down 7.3% in the past 24 hours, after lifting from the low point, the fallback point is still relatively low 🧩
From the low of 0.2967, the quote is about 2.5% higher, this pullback has some distance; looking at the recent 24-hour high-low range, it is still only around the lower 20% position.
The original area near 0.31 has not been reclaimed, short-term lift and overall low coexist. Partial credit given, the overall recovery remains restrained, not allowing a rebound percentage to overshadow the actual staying area's deficiency.
$WLD 0.3714, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours, the pullback deepens again, 0.375 could not be held 🌍
After reaching 0.3792, the quote retreated to 0.3714, the raised area near 0.375 was given up again, the pullback did not stabilize a higher position.
In the past full hour, it fell 1.1%, trading volume was 35.9% higher than the previous hour. I am cautious nearby, trading is still expanding while giving back height, counting this downward move first, the recovery is not smooth.Everything is a kind of game; everyone just needs to manage their stop-loss well. Today's decline is due to the immediate news impact of the Democratic Party winning the US midterm elections. Technically, it is supposed to go down; the news just accelerated the drop. Now, on the 30-minute chart, it can't even break the moving average, and the RSI has also reached the middle without divergence. Additionally, the funding rate is very high, so it is still expected to decline later. Therefore, I just made a light short position at 77000. If it continues to rise, I have backup plans.First, to pour some cold water, when I see large long positions opened, my first reaction is not that someone is leading the way, but rather who is actually buying to support that judgment. I lean bearish, but I wouldn't take a single long position as a reason to do a contrarian short.
Core Trader 43 opened a long BTC position this time with 3x leverage, nominal position about $276,700, reference price $76,256. I'm not in a hurry to be bullish: opening a position only proves willingness to take risk, it doesn't prove there is follow-up buying; estimating by position size, if the price drops 5%, the unrealized loss is about $13,800, and low leverage doesn't mean the loss is light. If the buying doesn't keep up, the most uncomfortable are those chasing longs who take wallet movements as confirmation signals.
Of course, he might be right. If the subsequent price can hold above the reference price, and after a pullback there is still support, I will retract my bearish view; if it continues to rise, those who stubbornly short against the trend will also suffer. I will next watch whether the price can hold steady, and won't use wallet reputation to make my judgment.