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Seeing income decline, many people's first reaction is negative. In the midday news, Vitalik's "ETH value storage theory" was questioned, with opponents emphasizing that L1 fee revenue cannot be sacrificed. This sounds solid, but I feel that using fees as the sole metric can also lead to a biased view.
Thinking from the opposite perspective, I believe the real question should be whether value can flow back, not whether fees are high enough. One reason: if high fees keep users out, then maintaining a single transaction fee might still lose long-term demand. This is my speculation; cheap does not necessarily mean prosperity.
Another reason: if usage grows but does not convert into sustained demand for $ETH, then "value storage" cannot be established by slogans alone. My judgment is that both sides need to clearly explain where the demand comes from; drawing conclusions based solely on income is premature.
I welcome those with opposing views to debate: do you value L1 fee revenue more, or the actual necessity of holding ETH? Why?NVDA perpetual futures first dropped to about 176, approximately 5.5% lower than Friday's close at 186.64, observing without chasing.
Noticed: The board initiated an independent investigation into Jensen Huang on Sunday, and he himself admitted to being unfaithful to his wife.
On Friday, Nasdaq closed at 186.64, OKX's NVDA-USDT-SWAP is currently around 176.35, with a 24-hour high of 188.19 and low of 175.93.
At 4 AM this morning, the 1H candle dropped directly from 187.86 to 180.62.
I think: This is a trust discount, not an immediate change of leadership.
The board says there is currently no reason to believe confidential information was leaked, Huang continues as CEO, the cash market will likely open lower tonight, but don't treat the pre-market perpetual futures as the final outcome.
What I will do: First see if it can hold above 180; if it breaks below the intraday low of 175.93, next target is 170; do not catch the falling knife, nor chase the rebound.
Do you think the open will directly break below 175, or will it first rebound to 180 to test sentiment?
$NVDA $AMD $TSM
#Tech stocks rebound after US stock market plunge, Nasdaq weekly still down about 3.4% #US October CPI preview: Will December rate hike expectations change?A full-scale crash, follow the trend to trade $ZEC
NU7 upgrade was officially activated on November 6, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, which is a substantial positive. However, ZEC reacted by falling from above 1300 to around 1260, dropping about 4% in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated for about 1 million USD — positive news turned negative upon realization.
The technical structure is also deteriorating. The daily chart's center of gravity continues to shift downward, price operates below the Bollinger Bands middle line, and 1290 has turned from support into strong resistance; the 4-hour chart shows a "sideways consolidation after a decline," a typical continuation pattern rather than a bottom formation. The rebound volume shrinks and highs progressively lower, indicating a lack of buying support.
More critically, the crowding of long positions. Price has steadily declined from 1695, open interest has not decreased but increased, and funding rates remain positive, meaning retail investors are continuously bottom-fishing with leverage. Under this structure, every time the price breaks a support, it triggers new long stop losses, creating negative feedback.
Adding the macro background: BTC has broken below the key 200-day EMA near 76,000 USD, the crypto market overall is in a bearish pattern of "news suppression + ETF capital outflow + fear zone," and altcoins lack the foundation for independent strength.
Strategy: Enter when the rebound faces pressure in the 1235–1249 resistance zone, target first 1200–1160, stop loss at 1300 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% BTC is really heading straight for 2000, and the bulls are still catching flying knives halfway up the mountain?
Just switched back to OKX for a glance, BTC directly dropped to 2105, a single-day plunge of 5.70%! ETH couldn't hold either, pressed down to 74,111, down 2.27%. Look at the row of altcoins below, SOL fell below 87, XRP dropped over 5.5%, it's basically a total rout.
This trend really confirms what I said before. Now it's just the last twitch away from 2000.
The funniest thing is, there are still brothers in the group asking "Is it time to bottom-fish now?" Everyone, tomorrow night (November 10) the US October CPI blind box is about to open! The non-farm payroll data just pushed the December rate hike probability to nearly 80%, institutional funds (ETFs) already bailed out last week. This market clearly shows funds are frantically hedging before the CPI release.
This -5.7% guillotine cut by BTC smashed many people's "support faith" directly. I won't teach you how to trade, I only know that now all the bulls are squeezed below, and if tomorrow night's CPI surprises again, triggering a chain stampede, don't even talk about 2000, it’s uncertain if it can even stop at 1800.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $OKB fell below 100, this is not due to technical weakness, the core reason is that giants like Apple and Tesla voted against it.
The tokenized US stock platform cooperated by OKX and ICE now has 67 issuers opposing it, including all seven major tech giants. Originally, nearly 90% of the 62 candidate stocks refused to be listed, and the remaining ones without objections are basically crypto-related companies.
I used to be optimistic about this sector, thinking that getting regulatory approval would be a positive, but the collective resistance from the giants directly killed the story of opening up US stock traffic, and the valuation logic was directly revised downward.
You can also see from the market that OKB is now at a 30-day low, down more than 10% in 7 days, with several short-term moving averages all pressing from above. Interestingly, the contract funding rate is still positive, indicating that there are still bulls holding on hard; the stop-loss orders of these people can easily become the driving force for further declines.
My thinking: 100 is just a psychological barrier; once broken, don’t look for support around this area. The first observation point is the 200-day moving average at 96.24. You can reduce your position if it rebounds to around 105, with a stop loss at 94.5. This drop is event-driven, so don’t rush to bottom-fish hoping for an oversold rebound. #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注
AI data center energy demand brings new opportunities
The development of the AI industry requires not only chips and computing power but also a large and stable power supply.
This is why I have recently been paying attention to Oklo.
Oklo is developing advanced fission nuclear power technology, aiming to provide stable energy to data centers, industrial facilities, and more through small, modular nuclear power plants.
In the Q3 business update released on November 6, the company disclosed the latest construction progress of the Aurora-ID project: site excavation has been completed, safety-related rebar construction is underway, and the main structural steel installation has also begun.
Additionally, the company’s Ohio power park project related to Meta is progressing, with a planned capacity of up to 1.2GW.
However, nuclear power projects require complex approvals, fuel supply, equipment manufacturing, and safety verification from construction to actual commercial operation.
I believe that to judge Oklo’s commercialization progress, one should not only look at the power demand driven by AI but also observe:
1. Whether the first nuclear power project can be completed as planned.
2. Whether regulatory approvals and fuel supply proceed smoothly.
3. Whether potential customer collaborations can convert into actual power supply contracts and revenue.
AI energy demand is a long-term opportunity, but nuclear power commercialization still needs time to be validated.
What do you think will be the most needed energy solution for future AI data centers: nuclear power, natural gas, or a combination of renewable energy and storage? The early morning spike hit 73,500, with over 800 million liquidated in four hours, and longs bore 740 million. But $BTC funding rates stubbornly didn’t turn negative; the long-short ratio even rose to 2.86. Those bottom-fishing haven’t capitulated; it’s the leveraged positions getting flushed, not the actual holdings.
$ETH was even weaker, with 358 million liquidated—more than Bitcoin. Its funding rate directly turned negative. Spot ETFs have seen outflows for six consecutive weeks, with another 365 million leaving last week [reference:2][reference:3]. $SOL also fell below 88, with the daily RSI down to just 26.6, showing very little strength.
The A-share market surpassed one trillion in half a day, commercial aerospace stocks hit limit-up waves, with Yushu Technology up over 13%, but volume shrank by more than 100 billion. Rotation is as fast as a fan; chasing highs is easy to get burned.
The US market’s semiconductor index rebounded 4.2%, AMD rose 11%, which is satisfying to see, but last week the semiconductor index dropped 12%, more like a hard fall catching a breath. US senators are again pressing Binance and Tether to submit documents; the regulatory pressure has never eased. There’s a trapped position pressure above 75,700; if it can’t reclaim that level, it’s just a rebound.BTC at $74,300, do you still dare to buy the dip?
ETF outflows reached $1.28 billion in one week, over $1 billion in long positions liquidated, five consecutive weekly red candles — everyone is shouting "the bear is here." But the 73,000 level, is it the institutional cost floor or the next meat grinder?
First, look at the surface: the drop looks ugly, but it hasn’t crashed yet.
Down 1.5%-2% in 24 hours, bottoming at 73,500. Daily candles are consecutively bearish, the fifth red weekly candle, and the 50-week moving average has been broken. RSI is between 35-40, close to oversold but not extreme. The group chat is full of "it's over" and "back to 60k" voices.
73,000-73,500 is where the 200-day moving average, recent lows, and corporate holding cost lines converge. The price didn’t get here by chance.
First thing: ETFs are running, and it’s institutions running.
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, one of the worst recent levels. BlackRock’s IBIT led the decline.
Think about this sentence: it’s not retail selling, it’s institutions withdrawing.
In the past 48 hours, crypto market liquidations exceeded $1 billion, 90% of which were longs. Single large orders near $50 million. Leveraged longs have been completely washed out.
What’s negative feedback? ETF outflows crush the price, the price crushes longs, liquidations crush the price again.
Second thing: macro is the biggest blade, CPI is just ahead.
Federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00%, no change expected in October, but some are betting on a rate hike. The market prices in a significant chance of a December hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.8%-5%, and the dollar is relatively strong.
In plain language: risk-free returns are nearly 5%, so why hold a zero-yield BTC that drops 2% a day?
The November 10 CPI is the biggest risk this week. Core CPI is stuck around 3.7%. If higher than expected, it reinforces "higher for longer," and risk assets continue to get hit; if lower, there might be some relief.
Third thing: technically bearish, but 73k has defense.
Daily: consecutive bearish candles, descending channel, series of lower highs and lows.
4H/1H: short-term oversold, possible rebound, but daily structure hasn’t turned bullish.
Key levels are clear:
Strong support: 73,000-73,500 (200-day MA + previous low + institutional cost)
Secondary support: 74,000-74,500, 75,000 psychological level
Near-term resistance: 75,500-76,000 (previous support turned resistance)
Stronger resistance: 77,000-78,000, 80,000-82,000
Breaking below 73k with volume leads next to 70k-68k; reclaiming 76k is needed for short-term rebound qualification.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On the bullish side:
73k triple support shows signs of defense
RSI near oversold, 4H shows rebound demand
Long-term holders and corporate cost lines here
Post-halving cycle, long-term fundamentals intact
On the bearish side:
ETF outflows of $1.28 billion in a week, institutional demand cooling
$1 billion liquidations, 90% longs, leverage just cleaned out
Fed hawkish bias, high US Treasury yields suppressing
CPI risk not yet realized, tech stocks weakening spillover
Fear & Greed index around 29, panic not bottomed yet
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
If rebound meets resistance at 75,500-76,000 with weak volume, try light short positions, stop loss above 76,500, targets 74,000/73,500. If breaks 73,500 with volume, follow short to 72k-70k, stop loss above 74k. Small long positions at 73,500-74,000 for quick in-and-out trades, stop loss 72,800, target 75,500. Avoid heavy overnight positions, avoid high leverage betting on CPI.
Swing traders:
Wait for one of two signals: hold 73k and reclaim 76k, turning neutral to bullish, target 80k-82k; or break 73k decisively with weekly confirmation, target 68k-70k, wait for stabilization before entering.
Long-term holders:
Spot holdings are fine, dollar-cost averaging can continue, but avoid leverage on contracts. 74k is not a signal to go all in, but a signal to check your position size. Don’t rush to "buy the big bottom" if it breaks 73k; wait for weekly stabilization.
BTC now is like the August 2024 wave —
Everyone thought "it’s going back to 50k," but after the shakeout, it still rose as it should.
But you have to survive until that day.
In bull markets, you make money by holding; in bear markets, you make money by not catching falling knives.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露
#ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进程能否突破？
AST SpaceMobile is attempting to enable ordinary smartphones to connect directly to low-earth orbit satellites, allowing communication even in areas without ground base station coverage.
If the technology achieves large-scale implementation, it will open new market opportunities for the global mobile communications industry.
According to previously released company information, AST has established partnerships with more than 60 mobile network operators worldwide, covering over 3 billion users, with contract and government project revenue reserves of about $1.3 billion.
Recently, the company also announced the Blacklift reusable launch vehicle program, aiming for its first flight in 2028, further reducing the cost pressure of future satellite deployments.
In this Q3 financial report, I am more focused on three aspects:
1. Satellite deployment: the production, launch, and testing progress of BlueBird satellites.
2. Commercial cooperation: whether partnerships can gradually convert into actual service revenue.
3. Capital investment: satellite manufacturing and launches require substantial funds, so financing capability is equally important.
Technological breakthroughs are only the first step; what truly determines AST's commercial value is whether it can establish stable services and continuous revenue.
If ordinary phones can directly connect to satellites in the future, do you think this will become an important supplement to traditional communication networks or change the entire communications industry? $BTC The US stock market hasn't opened yet today, so the only candlestick we can review is Friday's.
The most eye-catching this time isn't the $AMD surge of 11%, but Broadcom AVGO. The chip sector collectively rebounded, with Micron up 5.1%, TSMC up 6.3%, Intel up 7.7%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 4.21%. Only Broadcom showed weakness, hitting an intraday low of $289.77 and closing up just 0.74%. The 10.4% gap down from Thursday remains unfilled.
This indicates that sector confidence hasn't truly returned yet; it currently looks more like an oversold rebound, with funds still picking targets for short-term trades.
Next, the focus is on Nvidia's earnings report on November 17. Before that, there's no rush to chase highs; treat the rebound as a repair.
Looking at BTC now, it has fallen back to $74,198, down 2.19%, clearly not keeping pace with the chip sector's rebound in the US stock market.
Currently, continuing to stay on the sidelines, keeping positions unchanged, and waiting for the earnings reports to land before deciding the next step!#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ A rocket-building company has recently taken an interesting direction with its wallet.
SpaceX plans to invest $24 billion in Texas to build an AI supercomputer, with a gas power plant included in the project. In the same message, there's an even more thought-provoking statement: this amount is about 17 times the value of SpaceX's Bitcoin holdings.
Working backward, $24 billion divided by 17 means the Bitcoin holdings are just over $1.4 billion. It's not a small amount, but compared to $24 billion, it becomes a mere fraction.
This is not a bearish signal. It indicates the prioritization of capital expenditure: in the management's view, machines that can generate their own power and compute independently are more worthy of investment than $BTC sitting idle in cold wallets. Including a gas power plant in the project itself shows the attitude—the bottleneck isn't chips, it's electricity.
This also explains why the AI narrative can draw away funds. Corporate cash flow is limited; investing in supercomputers means less investment elsewhere. One of the biggest bullish stories for $BTC in recent years has been public companies treating it as a reserve asset, but the growth of that story is now being taken over by computing power.
The $1.4 billion holding hasn't moved; the 17x multiple is just a calculated figure and doesn't represent any portfolio adjustment. What's worth considering is: if more companies prioritize investing cash into computing power, who will be the incremental buyer of corporate coin holdings in the next cycle? $ETH and $SOL are also competing for the same budget.When it was at 1200 USD, the market was still competing to call the bottom, but now SanDisk has dropped to around 822. The once hottest AI storage sector has now become the direction where funds are concentrated in retreat, and this change is worth being cautious about! This time, with the pressure on the US stock market, I believe we cannot only look at the technical side; the political factors behind are equally critical. The core issue lies in the midterm elections! The market is currently worried that Trump will lose control of both houses of Congress. Once the Democrats gain an advantage in the midterm elections, subsequent regulatory and restrictive measures targeting the AI industry may gradually increase. The Democrats are also expected to release more policy signals restricting AI development in the near future. What does this mean? The market's growth expectations for the AI industry were already very high. If the policy environment changes in the future, corporate investment, capital expenditure, and the valuation of the entire AI industry chain may all be re-evaluated. Looking back at SanDisk, the AI concept previously drove the stock price to rise sharply, and funds and performance expectations have long been reflected in the price. Now institutions are starting to reduce holdings, market sentiment is weakening, and valuation reversion will naturally not be gentle. Personally, I currently maintain a bearish view on US stocks, especially the high-level AI and semiconductor sectors. Don't just focus on how much it has fallen; pay more attention to whether policy expectations and institutional funds will continue to deteriorate. If policy risks continue to ferment and funds are reluctant to return, this round of adjustment in the US stock market may have further follow-up. The most important thing now is not to rush to bottom-fish but to first protect the principal and wait for a real stabilization signal to appear! This time, I would rather earn a little less than be caught in an unclear trend BTC is now the top trending search on CoinGecko, with the heat coming from the continuous decline. As of 15:03 Beijing time on November 9, OKX spot price is 74155 USDT, down about 2.2% from the 24h opening price, with a 24h range of 73500–76200; CoinGecko shows a 24h trading volume of about 22.8 billion USD, down about 5.1% over 7 days.
News: It dropped to the lowest level since August late Sunday night. CoinGlass shows over 1 billion USD liquidations across the network in 24h, about 90% of which are long positions; last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion USD, the largest since the end of June; the weekly candle has closed five consecutive bearish candles, breaking below the 50-week moving average.
My view: This round is a combination of post-election regulatory expectations, ETF position reductions, and rising interest rate expectations. Liquidations have cleared some leverage, but OKX perpetual funding rates remain slightly positive, so the bulls have not given up yet. I am more focused on whether the ETF can stop outflows this week and whether the 50-week moving average can be reclaimed. Until it is reclaimed, any rebound should be seen as a rebound, and there is no rush to bottom-fish.
$BTC #NebiusAI云业务高速增长迎来财报检验 This week, the AI sector welcomes Neocloud's earnings report. Over the past 20 trading days, CRWV and NBIS have both dropped more than 40%, but the earnings reports of these two companies are not expected to look bad.
Although CRWV and NBIS both rely on renting computing power as their main business, their models differ. CRWV finances about 60% of its capital expenditure through borrowing; the more it borrows, the higher the interest rate. NBIS mainly relies on prepayments and equity financing, so its interest costs are low, with the only downside being equity dilution. Therefore, despite NBIS's revenue scale being smaller than CRWV's, its market value is nearly $10 billion higher, as the market is more willing to assign NBIS a higher valuation.
As of Q2, NBIS holds about $8 billion in cash, and Meta has provided a $15 billion computing power backstop agreement. Customer prepayments cover 60% of expenses. Compared to CRWV, NBIS has the advantage of lower future data center construction costs. NBIS's data centers are mainly in Europe and New Jersey, with no new plans in Texas, whereas CRWV's new data centers include Texas, which will increase costs.
Overall, NBIS's financing costs are lower than CRWV's, and future data center construction costs are lower. The market expects NBIS's total ARR guidance for 2026 to be in the $7-9 billion median or upper range. If it reaches $8 billion, this earnings report could very likely remove NBIS from concerns about new cloud financing. A $150 price can be used as a reference scenario for valuation recovery this quarter.The early morning spike was sharp, with $BTC dropping straight from 75,750 to 73,500, causing over 800 million in liquidations across the network in four hours, with longs accounting for 740 million. The price has recovered, but the funding rate is as low as 0.0028%, and the long-to-short ratio is 2.86; both sides are watching cautiously, and no one dares to bet seriously.
$ETH was even weaker, with 358 million liquidated, more than Bitcoin, and the funding rate turned negative, clearly showing weakness. The spot ETF saw outflows of 1.282 billion last week, with 411 million withdrawn on Friday alone; buying interest is truly absent.
The A-share market saw 1.02 trillion in half a day, with coal, telecommunications, and commercial aerospace sectors taking turns to lead. Zhongji Xuchuang topped with 16.7 billion in turnover, but volume has shrunk, making chasing highs risky.
The US market's semiconductor index rebounded 4.2%, AMD rose 11%, but the semiconductor index fell 12% for the whole week, and only 37% of S&P components rose; the rebound did not spread broadly.
Between 75,700 and 76,100 there is a lot of trapped positions pressing down; if it can't break back above, it will just be a rebound.Jacker's viewpoint is worth discussing. Let me share my personal opinion:
n=2 means the sample size is small, which is a hard limitation in $BTC data research, there's no way around it. The ETF becoming a new variable in this round is also correct.
But there are two factors here that cannot be ignored:
1. The trend of BTC holders shifting towards long-term allocation has remained unchanged through multiple cycles; regardless of whether there is an ETF or not.
2. The correlation between BTC and the US stock market is sometimes high, sometimes low; it cannot always be high, nor can it be forever low.
After all, there are quite a few investors who hold both US stocks and BTC.
When the weight of this portion of capital increases, the linkage between the two becomes tighter. Conversely, when this portion of capital has been fully rotated, the correlation will decrease.
From the data, the current correlation between BTC and the US stock market has reached 0.8, which is almost the highest point since 2020. According to the natural law of mean reversion, after reaching a certain critical value, the correlation will decline.
I once proposed an idea: if the US stock market rises and BTC falls (capital being drained), and the US stock market falls and BTC also falls (capital panicking together)...
Then why do long-term holders want to hold 14 million BTC for the long term instead of converting all of it into US stocks? Obviously, this logic does not hold in the long run.$SNXX 【All In! SanDisk Breaks Through Lower Bollinger Band, I'm Catching This Flying Knife】
The market is brutal, smashing through the 15-minute Bollinger lower band (815) from 859 all the way down, current price 814.5, about to test the previous low at 806 again.
Looking at the indicators, all moving averages are bearish pressure, but the short-term deviation rate is indeed a bit large. I'm ready to go all in to catch this falling knife, hoping for an oversold rebound.
My ironclad defense:
Since this is a left-side catch, the defense must be ruthless! Keep a close eye on the previous low 806; if it breaks down with volume, I will immediately cut losses at market price and admit my mistake, not holding on for a second longer! On the upside, first watch if it can reach the middle band (833).
Brothers, I'm betting on this move, wish me luck! Do you think it can bounce back? 👇 #SNDK #LiveTradeReviewNithin0dha sees Dogecoin ($DOGE) as an entry point to attract new investors: the desire to make money and the fear of missing out will get people started in buying and selling. He even believes that Dogecoin plays a bigger role in popularizing financial knowledge than reading finance books.
However, he also opposes making it too easy for people to buy and sell or to bet on price fluctuations for quick profits, believing this is harmful to individuals and society.#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
SoftBank's heavy investment in OpenAI: Can the Q2 financial report deliver impressive results?
SoftBank's significant investment in OpenAI led to impressive profits in Q2, mainly from the unrealized gains on OpenAI equity due to fair value increases, which is the core pillar of the Vision Fund's earnings for the period. However, these gains have not been realized in cash as OpenAI is not yet publicly listed; SoftBank's large investment relies on financing, which involves interest costs and risks of valuation write-downs. Whether future performance can continue to improve depends on OpenAI's commercialization progress and valuation stability.BTC is really heading straight for 2000, and the bulls are still catching flying knives halfway up the mountain?
Just switched back to OKEx for a glance, BTC directly dropped to 2113, a single-day plunge of 5.70%! ETH couldn't hold either, pressed down to 74,311, down 2.27%. Look at the row of altcoins below, SOL fell below 87, XRP dropped over 5.5%, it's basically a total rout.
This trend really confirms what I said before. Now it's just the last twitch away from 2000.
The funniest thing is, there are still brothers in the group asking "Can we bottom-fish now?" Everyone, tomorrow night (November 10) the US October CPI blind box is about to open! The non-farm payroll data just pushed the December rate hike probability to nearly 80%, institutional funds (ETF) already bailed out last week. This market clearly shows funds are frantically hedging before the CPI release.
This -5.7% guillotine cut on BTC shattered many people's "support faith" directly. I won't teach you how to trade, I only know that now all the bulls are squeezed below, and if tomorrow night's CPI surprises again, triggering a chain stampede, don't even talk about 2000, whether it can stop at 1800 is uncertain.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC Bearish view: October CPI is unlikely to be a turning signal and may instead reinforce the December rate hike.
Since October CPI only has month-on-month data without year-on-year, the signal value of the data is discounted, making the market more prone to being "led" by single-month readings. The bearish point is: core CPI month-on-month may not easily drop to 0.2%, rent and service stickiness remain strong, and the decline in commodity prices has limited drag on overall inflation, with a non-negligible risk of readings around 0.3%.
If the core month-on-month is relatively hot, the market's pricing for a 25bp rate hike in December will further move toward "fully priced in," pushing expectations for continued tightening next year, with rising US Treasury yields and pressure on US stock valuations. Even if CPI slows as expected, it only reduces the urgency of rate hikes and is unlikely to change the baseline direction of a December hike—the main logic remains the resilience of employment and core PCE still above target.
Conclusion: Bearish on risk assets, the probability of a December rate hike remains high, and the CPI decline is a "breather" rather than a "turning point."At 3 a.m., I'm the only one left in the kitchen, the stove flame turned to the bluest, a pot of broth simmered down to the bottom—AST SpaceMobile's cash flow is like the remaining broth in that pot.
After the U.S. stock market closed on November 9, the third quarter tasting plate was served. BlueBirds were added to the pot one after another, the plating looked good; but good plating doesn't mean the dish tastes good. What I want to see is the serving flow: has the commercial revenue really moved from the kitchen to the front hall? Those agreements with carrier partners—are they just letters of intent, or has the food pass-through been fully opened?
The service that goes directly to the phone, I call it the "direct-to-table" service. The difficulty in this industry has never been whether the kitchen can make it, but whether the front hall can keep up and whether customers are willing to pay for the dish. Satellites flying in the sky is one thing; whether the ground packages, tariffs, and roaming settlements can run smoothly is another. The former is knife skills, the latter is heat control; no matter how beautiful the knife skills, if the heat is insufficient, the dish is raw.
Now about burning money. The amount of financing is like the size of the stove burner—the fiercer the fire, the faster the broth dries up; if the pot is empty but you still turn up the heat to reduce the sauce, all you get is a burnt smell. Among the third quarter financial statements, the two things I most want to taste are: a spoonful of gross profit's initial flavor and a spoonful of how many fingers wide the cash balance remains.
Regarding the linked U.S. stock token, I treat it like dried scallops used to flavor the broth—it’s not responsible for brilliance but for setting the overall flavor. When the market is favorable, the token price tracks the underlying stock like freshly made sauce; when liquidity thins, it immediately separates into layers—the top is sentiment, the bottom is assets—you have to stir well before tasting, or else you get a mouthful of oil.
I've been doing this balancing act for twenty years. Mainstream coins are the main dish, filling and setting the tone; altcoins are the seasoning, a small pinch adds aroma, but too much makes the whole pot bitter; leveraged contracts are the extra spicy chili, powerful but the gut-burning pain never happens just once. Satellite communication is like the beef bone broth in a slow cooker—it needs to simmer, the fire can’t stop or rush; those eager to serve quickly mostly have broth that’s thin and gelatin not dissolved.
The real test comes after hours: does management talk about the recipe or the serving list? Do conference calls ask about capacity or orders? The most honest thing in the kitchen is never the menu, but the weight when the pot is lifted.
If this dish’s revenue still relies on stories to enhance flavor and cash still depends on financing to keep the fire going, then it will always stay at the sous-chef position, never reaching the main table; and a pot of broth propped up by adding water will eventually reveal its bottom when reduced. #astsq3commercialoutlookETH/USDT Perpetual (1-hour K-line) Market Analysis
1. Trend Structure
There was a sharp drop early this morning, hitting a low of 2051.90, followed by a slight rebound. The current price is 2112.61, with a daily decline of 5.72%, indicating a weak consolidation phase after a major drop. The rebound strength is weak and has not recovered most of the losses, with bears holding short-term dominance.
2. Indicator Status
KDJ: K=30.99, D=38.70, J=15.58, the J line is downward and at a relatively low level, but there is no clear golden cross stabilization signal yet, so there is still a possibility of further decline in the short term.
Volume: Increased on the drop, decreased on the rebound, indicating heavy selling pressure during the decline and insufficient buying support during the rebound.
3. Key Price Levels Reference
- Support: First support near 2052 (today's low). If this level breaks, it will open up new downside space;
- Resistance: First resistance in the 2140–2180 range. The rebound is likely to encounter resistance and fall back here, with stronger resistance above 2220.
4. Short-term Scenario Forecast
✅ Bearish scenario: The rebound fails to break through the 2140 resistance and continues to retest the 2052 support;
✅ Stabilization scenario: Holding above the 2052 low and KDJ forming a golden cross, which would lead to a decent rebound.
Overall, this is a weak recovery phase after a major drop. Do not rush to bottom-fish. Strict position control and stop-loss measures are essential for contracts.SanDisk
Upper resistance levels:
Short term: $850–$900
Secondary: $912–$950
Stronger resistance: Around $1,000
Lower support levels:
Short term: $816–$835
Secondary: $780–$800
If broken: Watch around $750
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $SNDK #美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解
The boss has something to say
I came across this news about the US and Iran, first noticing that oil prices are falling: Brent -0.88%, WTI -0.65%. The Prime Minister of Qatar met with Trump today to promote US-Iran ceasefire and negotiations on Hormuz navigation; Trump said if talks succeed, military action is unlikely, but Rubio said Iran's conditions are unacceptable. Talks are ongoing amid pressure; the US military just established the "Iron Gate" task force to block Iranian material transport, and Iran said on November 8 three oil tankers exploded and caught fire in Hormuz, pending verification.
My interpretation: This is a typical "talks while fighting" scenario. Oil prices falling instead of rising indicates the market is pricing in peace talks—if Hormuz were truly blocked, oil prices wouldn't behave this way. For the crypto space, this news won't directly drive BTC in the short term, but if oil prices spike due to a blockade, inflation expectations would return, increasing the probability of a rate hike in December, which would be real pressure on BTC. Now that oil prices are falling, it's actually a good sign.
BTC current price is about 75000, consolidating around midday Monday. My approach: oil price decline eases rate hike pressure, 75000 holding is worth watching but not chasing; if it breaks below 74500, look down to 73000. Tonight RKLB and ASTS earnings reports, will decide direction after US market opens.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SOL Sometimes, this world is just so absurd and ironic.
We curse Sun Ge every day, tease Sun Ge.
But Sun Ge's $TRX is the most resilient in the entire crypto circle.
It's hard to say what the future holds, but in the past few years, judging by the K-line, it is the only one that has followed a value curve, something even BTC feels ashamed of.
On the other hand, look at those so-called value coins.
ADA, DOT, ICP, AVAX, SUI, WLD — in terms of reputation, which one doesn't get crushed by TRX?
Each claims to be from a reputable and righteous background, but in the end, they are all refined scoundrels.$BTC has just gone through a full bear market cycle, but the price never fell below the holders' purchase price.
This price level is the realized price, the average price of each token on the network, and today's price is $54,000.
In every previous bear market, the price dropped below this level and stayed there for several months.
The 2015 bear market lasted 304 days.
In 2018, it lasted 134 days.
In 2022, it lasted 179 days.
This time it was zero.
In June, the price dropped to a low of $585,000, still 10% higher than the average holding cost.
At each cycle, the bottom keeps rising on this chart, and this time it is the first time it never broke through this line at all.
Sellers didn't have time to push things through before the coins ran out.$BTC Purely looking at the candlestick chart for speculation:
For Bitcoin to maintain the bull market structure currently, it will most likely spike to 70,000.
If there is a third rate hike, it could drop below 60,000.
Key defense level: I think it's at 70,000.
What does everyone think? Currently, most $BTC chips are in the 86k-76k range and are all in a floating loss state. It looks like it will need to consolidate here a bit more, waiting for the chips in this area to start decreasing. At least after some short-term holders cut their losses, the market will improve.OKX has newly launched "Simple Options," supporting tokenized stocks, with a minimum investment of 1 share, available for trading 24/7, and a trading fee of 0
US stocks have been very volatile recently, and being able to bet on views with small options in the Crypto market is quite attractive. Friends who often trade options might want to check it out
The so-called "Simple" lowers the threshold for understanding and participation, not the risk itself. Buyers may lose the entire premium; sellers receive the premium but must bear the fulfillment obligations — selling calls requires holding the underlying stock, selling puts requires having the funds readyA nominal position of $948,800, many people would immediately read it as "big money is bullish, very confident." This is Core Trader 14 going long 444 $ETH with 15x leverage. However, I am reluctant to take the position amount directly as a measure of confidence.
On the contrary, consider that the monitored display might be an amplified exposure, not the determination to bet. First, roughly calculated at 15x leverage, excluding fees, the initial margin corresponds to about $63,300, so you can't count the nominal amount as pure invested capital. Second, lacking the total wallet equity, the same position representing 10% or 90% of the account means completely different risk attitudes; these two are just my assumptions, the material doesn't provide an answer.
Therefore, I treat it as an expression of direction, not as strong evidence of bullishness. To judge how aggressive this trade is, would you prioritize checking the total account equity or the hedging status of other positions? I choose the former, and welcome those who choose the latter to debate.Under the surgical light, don’t just focus on the green line on the monitor—that’s only the symptom; reach out to feel the aorta and see exactly where the perfusion is cut off. Nebius will release its Q3 earnings report before the U.S. market opens on November 12. In Q2, the group’s revenue surged 454% year-over-year to $582 million, with AI cloud services contributing the majority. This is like a heart that has just resumed beating, with a very impressive cardiac output. But a good cardiac output doesn’t mean the tissues are truly receiving oxygen. Whether Q3 can keep pace depends not on the revenue curve, but on whether the “preload–afterload” balance between GPU computing power and data center expansion matches.
Revenue surge is cardiac output, capital expenditure is volume load, data centers are vascular bed reconstruction, and computing chips are transplanted myocardium. If microcirculation factors like customer demand, utilization, and contract quality don’t open up synchronously, high growth will turn into high-output heart failure: blood pressure looks high, but the extremities feel cold. Gross margin, depreciation, capex-to-revenue ratio, and order visibility are the intraoperative blood gas analysis; focusing only on revenue growth is like watching heart rate without checking perfusion. A 454% increase is not a normal sinus rhythm, but more like accelerated escape after defibrillation; if capex continues to expand in Q3 while revenue growth slows, that’s reperfusion injury. Myocardial edema won’t immediately show in revenue but will first crush cash flow.
Preoperative assessment requires looking at three statements: the income statement is hemodynamics, the balance sheet is heart structure, and the cash flow statement is extracorporeal circulation. Nebius’s expansion makes the heart bigger, but a larger ventricle needs more stable coronary perfusion; data centers and computing capacity are the coronaries, depreciation and financing costs are afterload, and imbalance on either end will cause growth to slide from “high output” to “low perfusion.”
The U.S. stock token XDELL’s linkage is more like a peripheral pulse, which can indicate central circulation but cannot replace direct cardiac visualization. Token price is the monitor waveform; when liquidity is thin, it can show atrial fibrillation-like artifacts, amplifying emotional transmission in the short term and distorting Nebius’s fundamentals into an irregular rhythm. It’s important to distinguish primary disease from conduction abnormalities: Nebius’s lesion lies in whether post-expansion cash flow perfusion can cover oxygen consumption, while XDELL is just a surface projection.
My judgment: this is not a simple earnings readout but a perioperative risk window—the true prognosis depends on whether the expanded myocardium can maintain effective perfusion under the dual afterload of depreciation and capital expenditure. #nebiusq3aicloudgrowth#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
Nonfarm payrolls have increased market bets on a December rate hike, making this CPI report a key test. The Federal Reserve focuses more on core CPI, paying special attention to the stickiness of service and housing inflation.
Three scenarios
- Above expectations: Inflation stickiness strengthens, rate hike expectations heat up, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthen, while gold and risk assets come under pressure.
- In line with expectations: The market will likely reflect expectations, mainly fluctuating, with little significant change to existing pricing.
- Significantly below expectations: Rate hike expectations cool down, the dollar weakens, benefiting gold and risk assets.
Key levels
Spot gold: resistance at 4080, 4106; support at 4026, strong defense at 3970
BTC: resistance at 76300; support at 74500, strong support at 73700
Nasdaq 100: support at 18200, resistance at 18850
Trading approach
Data releases often cause spikes; avoid heavy positions and premature speculation. Wait for the data to settle and the market to confirm before taking action. The core of the market movement lies in the expectation gap, not merely meeting expectations.
Brothers, what are your thoughts next? Let's discuss in the comments…After the 401(k)-related rules entered the final review, the market rushed to calculate how much buying power pensions could bring to crypto. Instead, I first thought about the costs.
The previously announced proposal requires managers to consider factors such as fees, liquidity, and valuation. The final rules are still under review, and the specific content is yet to come, but one thing is clear: long-term retirement savings are very sensitive to costs.
For example, purely hypothetically, with the same principal, if the annualized net return drops from 6% to 5%, the final value after 30 years would be about 25% less. Just a one percentage point difference per year, extended over time, makes a significant difference.
This is also why I am more selective about "products entering retirement accounts." How much management fee the user ultimately bears, whether there are other layers of fees, and whether exit is convenient all affect the long-term outcome.
The CLARITY Act is stalled, and market structure rules remain uncertain; the path for retirement products to move forward also requires specific products to withstand scrutiny. Regulatory progress is worth celebrating, but fees and services cannot be ignored just because the topic is popular.
I look forward to crypto gaining more recognition from long-term funds and hope these funds seriously compare products under conditions. Allocations that remain based on low costs, clear valuation, and stable service are usually more reliable than short-term buying driven by news hype. I can accept this process being a bit slower.
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 CORE Roadmap Breakdown: Is BTCFi the Ultimate Closed Loop or Just Another PPT? Three Signals Reveal the Truth
CORE presents a grand blueprint externally: to build a "Bitcoin Power Grid," relying on three major engines—AMP asset management protocol, LST liquidity staking, and SatPay payments—to construct a complete flywheel. The goal is for the ecosystem to generate real revenue, which feeds back into CORE token buybacks, breaking away from the old model solely dependent on inflation subsidies, thus completing the BTCFi business closed loop. The ideal is ambitious, but amid the current b14g coin theft crisis, governance disputes, and liquidity exhaustion, the market's biggest question is: can the roadmap truly be implemented, or is it just PPT storytelling? You can judge authenticity by focusing on three key verification signals. First, verifiable continuous buyback records. The core promise of the roadmap is that ecosystem revenue will be used to buy back CORE tokens, which is the foundation of the entire economic model. If long-term on-chain public and traceable buyback actions are not seen, no matter how perfect the flywheel design is, it remains just a paper story. Second, real ecosystem TVL and user growth. The closed loop is not written on paper; it is built by capital accumulation. Currently, CORE's on-chain activity is sluggish, and compared to projects like Babylon in the same track, capital is continuously flowing out. Only steady increases in staking volume and active addresses represent genuine user capture by the product. Third, governance security issues must be fully resolved. The coin theft incident left the biggest trust scar: the precedent of a hard fork to modify the ledger makes the market constantly worry about intervention risks. Only with a clear compensation plan and transparent transfer of governance rights will investors dare to re-enter.Elon Musk has pushed the "annualized $100 billion" heavy piece to the center of the board, while simultaneously reducing the government's revenue share from 16.6% to below 10%—this is not a tailwind attack, but a proactive sacrifice to open lines.
The nearly 70% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q4 is a typical midgame tactical combination: taking the initiative and forcing the opponent to respond; the annualized $100 billion is a promotion line, not a single-step check. The government's share decline is like removing a lone pawn in front of the king, reducing single-client constraints, but short-term cash flow must be supplemented by commercial launches and satellite networks; if the supplement is slow, the pawn structure will reveal gaps.
Tesla plans to gradually phase out Cybertruck by mid-2027, freeing up Texas factory capacity for Cybercab, which is withdrawing the low-turnover heavy piece from the closed wing and deploying it to the robotaxi open line. The key is not the announcement, but the rhythm of capacity conversion: factory renovation, supply chain ramp-up, regulatory approval, demand validation—each step is like a precise king move in the endgame; one misstep turns a draw into a loss.
$xHOOD, as a light piece representing tokenized US stocks, is linked first to the liquidity pawn chain: it moves first when risk appetite rises and is constrained first when liquidity tightens. Narratives can check, but the "target" must not be mistaken for "promotion achieved"; trade depth, premium/discount, and tracking error are all squares that must be controlled.
The truly profitable players don’t move step by step but calculate twenty moves ahead before placing a piece. If SpaceX delivers on both lines, the valuation narrative checks; if both quarter-over-quarter growth and government share are lost simultaneously, it’s a blitz. If Tesla’s capacity switch is delayed, the Cybercab line becomes a hanging pawn. My judgment: this is not the endgame, but a midgame combination under time pressure; the most dangerous piece on the board is not the opponent’s king, but you mistaking the "target" for the "captured piece." #spacex100brevenuetargetThe overnight liquidation was brutal, totaling $855 million across the market, with bulls bearing 90% of it. $BTC dipped to 73,708 but was pulled back above 75,000. The price looks stable, but funding rates are so low they're negligible. The long-short ratio is 58 to 42, with both sides watching cautiously; no one dares to bet heavily. Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion last week, with 410 million running off on Friday alone—buying interest is truly absent.
The A-share market traded 1.02 trillion in half a day, shrinking by 112.6 billion compared to last Friday. Coal, telecom, and robotics sectors took turns leading the rally. Yushu Technology rose 8.7%, but volume lagged, making chasing highs risky.
The US tech-heavy index rebounded 4.2%, AMD surged 11%, but the whole week saw a 12% drop in the tech-heavy index. Only 37% of S&P components rose; the rebound failed to spread broadly.
$ETH is even weaker than $BTC, with funding rates hitting rock bottom. Solana's advertising in Shanghai was directly halted by the central bank, leaving no regulatory loopholes. If the short-term holding cost line at 75,700 can't be reclaimed, it remains a rebound, not a reversal.11 billion USD is just pouring the first floor slab to elevation, not the topping out; a valuation of 1.25 trillion USD below the earlier target is the most glaring red line of a downgrade on the blueprint. The capital consortium entering is like a pile foundation subcontractor; SoftBank and Middle Eastern funds are not just facade decorative lines but are shear walls bearing lateral forces; if the largest investor changes to a UAE consortium, it means the core tube is changing its load path, and every subsequent node must be recalculated.
Microsoft and a social media giant jointly issued 40 billion USD in bonds, Oracle raised 20 billion USD through equity and debt financing, which is like casting reinforced concrete for future computing power demand in advance. Debt is the embedded steel structure, cash flow is the concrete curing period; insufficient curing causes the slab to crack first, and then talking about the tower's pinnacle design is empty talk. Financing needs and valuation pressure have never been about who builds higher but whether the foundation bearing capacity, upper structure stiffness, and construction rhythm match. Money coming too fast is like rushing the schedule: adding floors before formwork is removed, once settlement monitoring alarms, no matter how bright the curtain wall is, it cannot hide the stress concentration in the core tube.
XPL and similar US stock tokenized mapped targets are more like a glass curtain wall system, with fast heat transfer and strong reflection, able to quickly reflect the smart infrastructure financing chain's temperature changes onto the market; but the curtain wall is not a load-bearing wall, don't mistake the skin stiffness for structural safety. Once the underlying asset cash flow node loosens, the curtain wall reacts first, then the core tube cracks. What really needs monitoring is the pile end bearing layer, shear wall continuity, and the anchorage length of debt nodes, not the lighting effects of the valuation tower crown. When the steel content of financing exceeds the cash flow bearing capacity, even the highest valuation tower pinnacle is just a sway under wind load. #openai11bfundingLet's start with a reality check: opening a large long position doesn't necessarily mean the direction is certain. When I see such orders, I usually first calculate how much they can withstand, rather than guessing what the big players know. For now, I don't consider this a bullish signal; the position size is quite noticeable, but the margin for error may not be enough.
Core Trader 14 (0x24fb65…bed0f) opened a long $ETH position with 15x leverage, amounting to 444 tokens, with a notional value of about $948,800, reference price $2136.9009. I am cautious for two reasons: roughly calculating initial margin by dividing notional position by leverage, it’s about $63,300; if the price moves 3% against the position, the unrealized loss would consume about 45% of this margin, excluding fees and margin calls, and this is not an exact liquidation estimate. Also, monitoring only shows this long position, without the wallet’s full hedging arrangements, so we can’t treat this partial position as a unilateral bet. If someone adds leverage in this direction without similar buffers, they might suffer more when the market moves against them than the original wallet.
Of course, the other side might be right. If the price continues to hold above the reference price and pullbacks hold as well, I will reduce my doubts about the direction; if I also observe active deleveraging, I will lower the risk assessment. Don’t get excited too quickly—I want to see if the position can withstand adverse volatility first. Regarding this 15x long, are you bullish or bearish? Is your reasoning based on price confirmation or leverage risk? Be specific.On the radar echo, USDC's on-chain moisture flux suddenly rose to 49%, while the dry cold advection behind the upper trough simultaneously pressed down — this is not a uniformly distributed rain-through, but a frontal passage characterized by "bright precipitation, weak energy." Q3 revenue and reserve income increased by 17% year-on-year to $865 million, while continuing operating net profit only rose 5% to $226 million, indicating that the cloud volume is expanding but latent heat of condensation is not being released synchronously. Reserve income dropped 8% to $658 million, equivalent to weakened sea surface temperature support and the removal of underlying thermal conditions; the more active the on-chain transaction volume, the more it resembles strong convection converging at low altitude, with intense instantaneous rainfall but duration depending on moisture supply.
Arc blockchain's token presale contributed $182 million, lifting other income into localized artificial rain: a sudden high echo appeared on the radar, concentrated in the landing area, with very nice rain gauge readings, but this does not mean the large-scale circulation has changed. Forecasters most fear mistaking single-station heavy rain for a climate trend, and also fear mistaking one-time topographic uplift for monsoon establishment. USDC's 49% is moisture flux, reserve income's -8% is energy supply, revenue's 17% is echo area, and net profit's 5% is actual rainfall — putting these four elements together, the readings are lukewarm, but the structure is fragmented.
Looking at the US stock token XIREN, it resembles a downstream observation station: as the upstream cloud mass passes, first observe moisture transport, then low-level shear, and finally whether the urban heat island will re-trigger the echo. Focusing only on transaction volume as a wind vane risks overlooking the decline in reserve yield, the dry tongue; once the dry tongue extends in, showers quickly turn to cloudy skies. Arc's presale income is a localized rain enhancement rocket, capable of producing a burst but cannot be taken as the subtropical high shifting north. The current pressure field has not formed a sustained deep trough; XIREN's linkage is more likely a shortwave trough passage: there is wind, rain, and thunder, but the geopotential height does not support continuous heavy rain. The divergence in ensemble forecasts lies not in revenue but in reserve income as the energy line; once sea surface temperature continues to drop, even if on-chain moisture is strong, it is difficult to raise precipitation efficiency to the previous level.
My judgment: this is a passage of high cloud cover and low-level conditional instability, with impressive apparent precipitation but declining thermal conditions; XIREN's radar echo has already shown peripheral clutter, which does not equal the storm center landing. #circleq3usdcvolumeup49%Net outflows for six consecutive weeks, and what I'm focusing on is this "consecutive" aspect. First, consider the worst-case scenario: if the outflows continue and other buying forces fail to catch up, then the risk of price pressure remains unresolved. This is my scenario analysis. During the same period, some large addresses also bought or withdrew $ETH.
⚠️ What concerns me more is the persistence of capital outflows, not the comfort of "whales increasing holdings." There are two risk points: continuous outflows mean the ETF demand channel has not yet reversed; withdrawals do not equal new buying, so address activity cannot be directly equated with absorption capacity. These two types of data have different calibers and putting them together does not mean they can offset each other.
A habit from my previous risk control work is to first calculate what I can tolerate. A piece of advice for ordinary people: convert the maximum single loss you can bear into a proportion of your account, rather than just focusing on the stop-loss price. For me, whale activity can be observed but should not be used to reduce the risk budget.To be honest, I used to think that once the direction was clear, using higher leverage just meant occupying less principal. But after suffering losses, I realized the biggest pitfall I fall into is treating "can still hold on" as a plan, which results in heavier positions and more reluctance to admit mistakes.
This time, monitoring shows that Core Trader 12 just opened a $XYZ100 long position with 30x leverage, a nominal value of about $249,700. It's just an opening position now, and the outcome is unknown, so we can't endorse his judgment based on position size alone.
My view is that the key to this trade isn't whether he dares to go long, but whether the risk budget is clear enough. Roughly calculating with 30x leverage, if the price moves against him by about 1%, the loss would be around 30% of the initial margin, not including fees; such a seemingly small fluctuation is already enough to affect discipline in execution.
Another issue is that we don't know the total funds behind this wallet, nor whether there is any hedging. The same nominal position size represents very different pressure if it accounts for 10% of the account versus more than half. So I wouldn't judge whether he's making a prudent layout or taking a risk based solely on this opening position news.
I now stick to two rules: one is to first set the maximum loss for this trade, then reverse-calculate the position size based on stop-loss distance; the other is to write down exit conditions before entering, and not move the stop-loss further away just because of reluctance. Work is already mentally draining enough; in trading, I'd rather earn less than rely on stubbornly holding on to get by.While $BTC reclaimed $75,000, ETH fell over 5% to $2,060 overnight. Alts are bleeding harder than Bitcoin — that is classic risk-off, not a BTC-only story. My call: as long as alts keep leading down, $BTC upside stays capped into CPI. Strength returns when ETH stops making new lows. Not financial advice — DYOR.RKLB opportunity is here!
Latest interview statement from NASA Administrator Isaacman is very clear: As Falcon 9 gradually reduces production and exits the market, the short-term launch market will experience fluctuations, which is exactly the window Rocket Lab has been waiting for. The Neutron rocket is about to debut, and the demand in the launch market is indisputable.
With SpaceX's Falcon 9 gradually retiring, there will be a gap in medium and large launch capacity. Neutron is positioned to precisely fill this market gap, which is the long-awaited opportunity for RKLB. Market demand is confirmed, now it depends on the progress of Neutron's deployment. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ $BTC is on track for a fifth straight losing week — that has only happened twice since 2017. A weekly close above $78,232 ends the streak. My prediction: the streak probably extends one more week, but stretched trends snap back harder than people expect. The turn starts slow, then fast. Not financial advice — DYOR.The easiest cost to overlook in a technical upgrade is the developers' man-hours. When I saw this news, my first reaction was not "transaction fees will drop," but rather: will assembling on-chain applications in the future require an additional version check?
PANews, November 9 — Ethereum developer Leo Glicic submitted an EIP draft proposing to implement gas repricing with versioned opcodes while maintaining backward compatibility. Newly deployed contracts must use V2 opcodes and the gas schedule of EIP-8037/8038, while existing contracts will continue using the old schedule. This is still a draft.
My judgment is that this is more like a challenge for the development toolchain rather than an immediate signal of cost savings for ordinary users. Repricing does not mean a uniform price reduction; leaving room for future adjustment costs does not mean the transaction fees in your wallet will immediately decrease.
Specifically regarding collaboration, the new DELEGATECALL_V2 requires the target contract version to be at least 2, or it will fail immediately. If an application needs to combine across versions, the development team may need to add tests and call checks, which is my speculation. Protecting old contracts is valuable, but the interface between new and old systems also requires tools to manage.
So I am more concerned about whether the supporting tools can keep up, rather than prematurely labeling this as a positive. If the applications you frequently use need to adapt to this set of rules, would you most want the team to publicly share the compatibility list, test results, or estimated migration costs? Rocket Lab is releasing its earnings tonight. Here's a counterintuitive conclusion upfront: revenue and loss figures are unlikely to bring surprises—the market consensus is revenue of $257 million, up 66% year-over-year, right in the middle of the company's guidance range, which is a "known answer."
What really sets the price is another matter: whether the Neutron rocket will continue to be delayed.
The earnings report focuses on three things:
① Gross margin—guidance lowered to 29–31%, dragged down by the low-margin satellite business; watch the actual outcome;
② Losses—past three quarters have consistently beaten their own guidance, but this quarter's guidance unusually points to an increase (loss of $17–23 million); Q4 guidance is a new point of interest;
③ Neutron wording—just repeating "2027, no date" is neutral; explicitly stating "Q1 testing on schedule" would be positive.
The stock price already jumped 15% on Friday ahead of the report, with options implying ±15% volatility post-earnings.
The average sell-side target price is $97, implying doubling potential—provided Neutron doesn't disappoint again this time.
This is not just an earnings report; it's a vote of confidence.
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Look at the two lines first: The red line represents the intensity of long position liquidations below, which steadily declines from the left and completely drops to zero around 74150. Brothers, note that the red line in the morning's chart hit zero at 75083, and now it has moved down to 74150—this indicates that all the long positions between 75000 and 74000 have been fully liquidated in this recent drop. The green line shows the intensity of short position liquidations above, climbing from 74150 up to 82142, and has now accumulated to 300 million. It was only 100 million in the morning, tripling in half a day.
Looking at the bars above: The 100x high-leverage orange bars are most concentrated around 76310 with 13.3 million, and near 76650 with 12 million. The 50x yellow bars are around 72746 with 9.6 million (below the current price), and near 77282 with 6.8 million.
Conclusion: The current price at 74055 is exactly stuck at the red line's zero point. The long positions near 74000 below have mostly been liquidated, so the downside space is actually limited—because there are no long position chips left to trigger chained liquidations. Above, around 76300, there is a wall of 13.3 million 100x short positions that the rebound will have to face.
This suggests a possible technical rebound near 74000 in the short term, since the long positions below have been cleaned out. But the rebound height is expected to reach 76300, where a large amount of short position liquidations will occur. If 74000 does not hold, the next long position liquidation zone is the 9.6 million 50x bar at 72700.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC $ETH Brothers, I’ve noticed that 八佰哥 now has a pretty serious problem: he’s losing too much and seems to be gradually losing the ability to independently judge the market.
Look at his operations these past few days:
On November 4, he went 8x long on SOXL, with an unrealized profit of 65,000 U and a return rate close to 94%. He boldly said it would either liquidate or take off.
On November 5, SOXL kept dropping, and his 10x long positions suffered large unrealized losses one after another, finally cutting losses on the last three trades consecutively. According to public posts, the weekly loss had already expanded to over 800,000 U.
By November 7, he was still planning for BTC to rise to 150,000 and ETH to 5,000, relying on a bull market to recover, still holding 20x long BTC positions.
On November 8, the 10x long SOXL position was closed at a -34.42% return.
To be blunt, 八佰哥 now gives me the feeling that he’s not really studying the market anymore; his mind is full of how to make back the lost money.
When it drops, he bottoms out; if it keeps falling, he waits for a rebound; after cutting losses, he switches coins and goes long again.
With such a large capital base, maintaining this trading rhythm after continuous losses really makes me sweat for him.
八佰哥@八佰哥爱理财, what you probably need most right now isn’t the next bull market or another long position.
It’s to stop first and seriously think: if the market still doesn’t follow your script this time, how many more chances do you really have to reopen positions?
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ My first reaction is: it's the usual tug-of-war between "capital withdrawal VS big players buying." I usually look at which side has more solid evidence first, and I don't rush to applaud the term "bottom fishing."
The US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $365.3 million last week, marking six consecutive weeks of net outflows; meanwhile, some large addresses either bought or withdrew ETH during the same period. The same piece of news can indeed be read with two different sentiments.
But I think the weight of these two sides is not equal: continuous net outflows reflect sustained pressure on this type of product, and the explanation of weekly fluctuations is not enough; large address purchases reflect the willingness of some funds, but withdrawals do not equal new buying, nor can they directly prove they offset ETF outflows.
So regarding the short-term capital flow of $ETH, I am cautious; the actions of big players are not yet enough to be considered a reversal signal. Do you lean more towards "ETF outflows carry more weight" or "big player actions are worth tracking"? What evidence would make you switch sides?"