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$BCH price retracement line is sloping downward and below the signal line.
$BCH 241.75$ slightly decreased within 24 hours.
On the closing price K-line, the retracement line slopes downward and is below the signal line. This indicator alone is insufficient to conclude a price trend reversal.
The 4-hour timeframe shows a downward trend, consistent with the daily movement.
Support 235.6: A close below this value on H4 will confirm the loss of support.Low-priced dumping and goods from unknown wallet addresses are still being continuously purchased.
$ETH About the wallet
One hour ago, this wallet address withdrew 3500.ETH ($7.53 million), priced at $2143
Total holdings increased to 16,577 ETH ($35.54 million) at an average price of $2260Hackers are not only skilled in hacking techniques, they are also very good at investing! =))
A wallet associated with this hacker sold over 1600 $ETH (about 3.8 million USD) in the past two days to buy Zcash ZEC.
This is very likely not a North Korean hacker, because most North Korean hackers tend to sell off their assets after carrying out hacks, rather than buying anything on the market.
$ZEC has risen 40 times from its low point in the past year, leading the privacy wave, but why do hackers still choose it?Bitcoin has taken another sharp hit, bringing fresh fear and uncertainty into the crypto market. But is this simply a temporary shakeout, or are deeper market risks starting to emerge? Several factors may be contributing to this decline: 🔹 1. ETF Outflows: Continued withdrawals from US Bitcoin ETFs are weakening institutional buying pressure and adding selling pressure. 🔹 2. Macro Uncertainty: US economic and interest-rate expectations, combined with geopolitical tensions, are pushing investor$ONE is a highly controlled altcoin, brothers, don't enter the market to trade, blacklist this coin. 如果你在比较链上的各种收益率，这一章给你一个拆解工具：任何收益都可以拆成六项来源，每一项都有一个具体的付款人。找到付款人，你就知道这份收益能持续多久。 6.56% 里有 60% 是别人送的 2026 年 10 月底，DefiLlama 在 Robinhood Chain 上追踪着 60 个收益率大于零的池子，合计锁仓约 9.7 亿美元。按锁仓加权，平均年化收益率是 6.56%。 这个数字比美国国债高，比大多数银行储蓄高。但它有一个前提：其中 60.1% 是奖励，也就是由某个项目方、某个平台或某个发行人额外发放的补贴。60 个池子里，有 35 个的收益一半以上来自奖励。规模在 100 万美元以下的 52 个小池子，收益率中位数高达 64%，几乎全部是奖励。 Merkl 是这条链上最主要的激励分发平台。11 月 2 日，它在链上有 30 项正在进行的活动，每天发出约 10 万美元的奖励。 补贴本身不是坏事。新链需要补贴来启动流动性，就像新商场需要招商补贴。问题在于，投资者往往把补贴当作收益本身，忘了问一句：它是谁付的，付到什么时候？ 收益方程 任何一份链上收益，都可以拆成六项： 收益 = $TIA
Modular blockchain architecture offers a different approach to building decentralized networks. Celestia separates data availability from execution, allowing developers to build customized blockchain environments. However, the modular ecosystem faces an important question: how much demand will independent rollups generate for data availability services? Real usage will matter more than theoretical scalability.Don't mistake negotiations for peace; this wave of oil price flash crash is purely a news-driven trap. Oil price $CL dropping over 3% is not a real ceasefire, it's the market trading on unconfirmed rumors of concessions, plus Trump's statement not to escalate, prompting funds to dump. But the US military is still attacking Qeshm Island, Rubio is pouring cold water, and there is zero substantive progress. This kind of sentiment-driven sell-off is most prone to a rebound, so don't chase the short.
Looking at $BTC, it no longer moves with oil prices; now it's just stagnant liquidity. ETF net outflows exceed 400 million, Coinbase premium remains negative, and large holders on Hyperliquid have turned net short for the first time in seven months. The 75,000 level has been flat for three days, with heavy resistance above; without fresh liquidity, it simply can't break through. Don't think risk appetite has returned just because oil prices fell; there's internal fighting, so keep your hands off and don't catch a falling knife.
Looking at $XAUT gold, this is the real hard currency. The oil price crash should have suppressed inflation expectations, but gold instead rose over 1% to 4112. The logic is simple: geopolitical risks have not been resolved, central bank buying is firmly supporting the bottom, and funds prefer holding gold over volatile assets. The resilience of BTC and gold are on completely different levels; don't use short-term sentiment to trap long-term logic.
In summary, all negotiation news is smoke and mirrors; the actual conflict hasn't stopped, and oil price rebounds can come at any time. BTC lacks fresh liquidity, so don't bet on direction; gold has solid logic supporting it. Keep your hands steady, preserve your principal through this wave of sentiment-driven selling, and only by surviving will you have the chance to pick up chips. #美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解 #SoftBank Group increases its investments in OpenAI, the financial report focuses on return on investment $BTC You say this thing has now completely become a follower of the US stock market, that's one thing, but the Nasdaq and S&P are both rising, and you're following so slowly, yet you're quick to follow the drops. Now, Bitcoin's relationship to the US stock market is about the same as altcoins' relationship to Bitcoin.$SNDK perfectly passed the Fibonacci retracement; 750 to 850 is the best buying point. Wall Street skillfully used fear to harvest a large group of peopleBEAT 4-hour chart
Current price 0.08699,
Resistance at 0.11167, support at 0.08647, after a rally it continues to decline, moving averages show bearish pressure, currently near the support level at a low point, representing a short pause in the main downtrend.
News: After previous gains were realized, selling pressure continues to release, chips are unstable, breaking below support will further open downside space.
$ZEC $ETH $BEAT
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $ZEN is showing robust trend continuation.[span_12](start_span)[span_12](end_span)
Support levels are holding remarkably strong under pressure.[span_13](start_span)[span_13](end_span)
EP
4.950 - 5.020
TP
5.220
5.450
5.700
SL
4.820
Market structure favors a sustained trend expansion as long as local demand zones are effectively defended by market makers.
Let's go $ZEN
#OKXOrbitTopics .Brothers, BTC dipped again today, directly dropping to 74,000, completely losing the 75,000 level.
The data looks pretty bad: ETF outflows hit 410 million in a single day, institutions are continuously exiting.
On-chain exchange net flow turned positive (inflow of 1,300 coins), reserves slightly increased by 2.82 million, selling pressure is starting to show.
The whole network liquidations reached 1.15 billion (a sharp increase compared to the day before yesterday), the long-short ratio dropped to 2.9, bulls are still holding hard but positions have decreased.
Futures at 123 billion overwhelmingly surpass spot at 17.9 billion, Glassnode market cap dropped 10%, Sharpe leans Risk Off. Technically, 73,400 is the low support, 74,800 is consolidation, rebound resistance is 76,000-77,500. Be cautious if this level breaks, don’t rush to catch the falling knife. #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 $PIEVERSE is not... what's going on with this coin being so fierce?
Lately, I've been focused on $AKE and completely forgot about this coin.
I was previously trapped and took a direct loss to exit, bleeding 12U, which was a heavy blow to my already modest position.
Fortunately, I managed to recover everything later thanks to AKE...
Looking back now, this coin's trend is so strong?
It’s quietly climbing the ranks every day, and now it’s jumped straight to the top spot...
Checked the data:
4-hour net capital outflow of 26,900
24-hour net capital outflow of 77,000
24-hour main short liquidations around 219,000
Wait, how is the price rising with capital outflow?
Checked liquidity:
480,500 liquidations (short) between 1.79-1.99
5,446,400 liquidations (long) between 1.28-1.79
Checked unlocks:
On November 14, 86,383,300 tokens will unlock, valued at about $158 million, accounting for 8.64% of supply.
Looks like it’s gearing up to break 2... $PYTH is demonstrating explosive upside potential.[span_4](start_span)[span_4](end_span)
Volume confirmation is backing the upward push.[span_5](start_span)[span_5](end_span)
EP
0.0628 - 0.0636
TP
0.0655
0.0678
0.0705
SL
0.0612
Momentum remains firmly bullish as price sweeps through key resistance zones, pointing toward further upside expansion.
Let's go $PYTH
#OKXOrbitTopics .On November 9, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea were both trading the aftermath of the same macro storyline: after last week's panic sell-off triggered by the "Democratic Party sweeping Congress" and AI regulation fears, capital began a violent structural rebalancing. However, the two countries ended up at completely different points—Japan experienced a "mean reversion rebound after overselling," while South Korea saw a "complete divergence following the failure of heavyweight stocks to hold the bottom."
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🇯🇵 Japan: Index violently rebounds, but capital is truly chasing "undervalued and domestic demand"
The Nikkei 225 closed up 2.33% at 58,775.50 points, having risen nearly 3.5% intraday, a technical recovery from last Friday's record plunge (the third-largest single-day point drop in history). But the internal structure of the rebound is crucial: the morning session was driven by "oversold bottom-fishing" in semiconductors/AI, while in the afternoon, funds clearly flowed into finance, automobiles, and domestic demand, with AI stocks even experiencing a "sell-off at the close."
Core speculative directions:
· Semiconductors/AI (leading gains in the morning, divergence at the close): AI hardware stocks, which were bloodied last week, attracted heavy bargain buying in the morning. TOWA surged 22.41% to the daily limit after revising up its earnings forecast and breaking order records; Disco rose 7.8%, Tokyo Electron Device 6.5%, Advantest over 5%. But gains narrowed sharply in the afternoon: SoftBank Group ultimately fell 4.2%, Advantest closed up only 1.29%, Ibiden fell 3.5%, Kioxia dropped 2.46%. The AI narrative in Japan can no longer secure all-day trust votes.
· Finance and domestic demand (the strongest theme all day): Bank stocks were the most stable direction. Market expectations for the Bank of Japan to continue raising rates before year-end intensified, with Mitsubishi UFJ rising 4.6%-5.2%, Sumitomo Mitsui 4.2%-4.4%, Mizuho Financial 4.8%-nearly 6%. Toyota Motor rose 2.1%-4.58%, Fast Retailing (Uniqlo) 2.7%, Nintendo 3.4%, with consumer and auto leaders strengthening in tandem. Baycurrent (IT consulting) surged 8.8%, hitting a historic closing high, becoming the best-performing Nikkei constituent stock.
In summary for Japan: The index is rebounding, but capital's choices have changed. The morning session gave AI hardware a "oversold repair" face, but the afternoon quickly shifted to finance, automobiles, consumption, and other undervalued and domestic demand sectors. Market concerns about AI regulation remain, and any rebound is seen as an opportunity to reduce AI holdings and increase value allocations.
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🇰🇷 South Korea: Heavyweight stocks "support but don't lift," capital "votes with its feet" in batteries and biotech
The KOSPI index closed down 0.81% at 5,018.85 points, hitting a new low since February 2, having once risen 2.2% intraday but ultimately turning negative. The semiconductor giants rebounded in the morning but faced concentrated selling at the close, with gains nearly wiped out: Samsung Electronics closed up only 0.64%, SK Hynix 0.35%, both having risen over 3% earlier.
Core speculative and bleeding directions:
· Semiconductors (failed to hold the bottom): The morning rebound was driven by bargain buying after last week's plunge and reassuring statements that "NVIDIA GPU supply issues do not affect contracts already signed by Korea." However, the independent investigation into Jensen Huang's involvement in a Chinese espionage case became a new afternoon negative, with NVIDIA's after-hours stock price dropping 3%, directly suppressing the popularity of Korean semiconductors. The heavyweight stocks' rebound failed to attract follow-up buying and instead became a window for selling.
· Battery stocks (hardest hit): LG Energy Solution plunged 5.78%, Samsung SDI crashed 11.32%, SK Innovation fell 2.47%, LG Chem dropped over 5%. Last week's Democratic Party victory briefly ignited green policy expectations for battery stocks, but today the market began concentrated profit-taking on prior gains. The battery sector's plunge was the core force dragging the KOSPI into the red.
· Communication equipment and some domestic demand (contrarian highlights): The communication equipment industry index soared 7.77%, with 43 of 51 constituent stocks rising. With semiconductors and batteries losing appeal as heavyweight sectors, capital retreated to defensive sectors like communications and consumption. Hyundai Motor fell 2.86%, Kia 3.29%, and auto stocks failed to continue last week's strength.
In summary for South Korea: Semiconductors "support but don't lift," batteries "profit-taking," and capital can only seek safe havens in communications and some domestic demand sectors. Foreign investors net sold Korean stocks by 693 billion KRW all day, while the onshore KRW sharply appreciated 1.18% to 1,347.1, with the divergence between exchange rate and stock market further confirming that local funds are withdrawing from equity assets rather than external capital systematically shorting.
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💎 Summary
Japan is trading "mean reversion after a plunge but refusing to pay again for the AI narrative"—the index rose, but the leaders were banks, autos, and consumption; AI hardware stocks collectively fell in the afternoon, with the market expressing caution about AI regulatory uncertainty through actual actions. South Korea is trading "passive defense after heavyweight stocks failed to hold the bottom"—the semiconductor giants' rebound was swallowed by selling at the close, battery stocks faced concentrated profit-taking after policy expectations were realized, and capital could only retreat to communication equipment and some domestic demand sectors. The common feature in both places is that the panic sell-off driven by political events last week has temporarily ended, but capital has not returned to the original AI/growth narrative; instead, it is making new choices between undervaluation, domestic demand, and policy certainty. $DGAI AI concept hype is fading, new coins lack real buying support, and market liquidity is extremely poor. The manipulative whales are likely to repeatedly pull and lure buyers in the 0.77 - 0.81 range. Once the critical neckline support at 0.70 is effectively broken, a chain liquidation stampede of long positions will occur below, directly crashing into the vacuum zone at 0.656. $FLOKI is maintaining steady upward trajectory.[span_6](start_span)[span_6](end_span)
Consolidation near local highs indicates accumulation.[span_7](start_span)[span_7](end_span)
EP
0.00002050 - 0.00002090
TP
0.00002160
0.00002240
0.00002350
SL
0.00001990
Buyers are steadily holding structural higher lows, preparing the market for potential breakout continuation into higher target zones.
Let's go $FLOKI
#OKXOrbitTopics .BTC fell below $75,000, but has the real bottom signal appeared yet?
This round of decline is no longer just a technical correction; it is a simultaneous pressure on the crypto market from macro tightening and regulatory uncertainty.
On November 6, the US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month-over-month. Strong employment data reignited rate hike expectations, with the market's bet on a December rate hike rising to about 80%, strengthening the dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets.
The regulatory front is also unsettled. Blumenauer has requested Binance, Tether, and two Trump-associated crypto companies to submit investigation materials, with a voluntary submission deadline of January 4. As the Democrats take control of the Senate investigative panel, regulatory pressure on the industry may further escalate.
The funding situation is also deteriorating: in the first week of November, the US spot BTC ETF saw net outflows of about $1.28 billion, and the market liquidations exceeded $1 billion. Short-term BTC support is at $73,000; if broken, it may test $70,000; the $78,000 to $80,000 range remains an important resistance zone.
I believe the real bottom cannot be judged solely by price decline but must consider leverage clearing, ETF fund inflows, and shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations. Panic may create lows, but the re-entry of funds is a more reliable signal of a trend reversal. $BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Plunged 60% then sharply stabilized! The "blood-stained chips" of $SNDK, dare to bottom-fish?
Extremely hardcore with a gross margin of 85% in the financial report, and an expected 8-for-1 stock split. The company is aggressively buying back shares worth 5 billion to support the price. Macro: Non-farm payrolls blew past expectations, US December rate hike expectations remain high, tech stocks collectively face headwinds, capital/sector Goldman Sachs warns AI capital expenditure has peaked, but TSMC's surge leads Asian semiconductors to counterattack, sentiment warms up. Technical: Daily chart plunged straight from 1900 to 791, extremely oversold, currently consolidating with low volume around 830!
Long suggestion: Patiently wait for a pullback to stabilize around 810-820, try a light long position, stop loss at 780—if broken, exit immediately. Rebound targets are 850-900 with phased profit-taking! This is now a battle between "macro bloodletting" and "fundamental overselling," take the oversold rebound gains and run, don’t get attached to the fight! $PEPE #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC CPI night sets stop loss at 1%: In the past 21 times, it was hit every single time.
· Calculated at the price at the moment of announcement, within 24 hours all 21 times hit at least one side of ±1%, with 16 times hitting within 2 hours
· 8 times both sides of ±1% were swept: one long and one short position, possibly both stopped out together
· Among the 15 times closing higher after 24 hours, 5 times first dropped below −1% then pulled back, showing that even if the direction was right, you could still be shaken out
· If stop loss is set to 1.5%, the times both sides were swept drop from 8 to 2; set to 2%, only 1 time remains
· Tomorrow night at 21:30 (Taipei) October CPI will be announced, BTC current price about 74,900
Tight stop loss with heavy position during CPI night is not risk control, it’s paying tuition for volatility; if you want to widen the stop loss, first reduce your position size.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT 5-minute K-line, 21 CPI events from 2025/1 to 2026/10, 24 hours from announcement time #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $MERL token inflation unlock continues until 2028, and the on-chain TVL has sharply shrunk with extremely poor liquidity. The dog whale is very likely to repeatedly oscillate around 0.0315 to induce longs. Once it breaks below the key support at 0.028, the area below is a vacuum zone, which will directly liquidate the longs below, triggering a waterfall sell-off.The Three Swords Ring Strategy Matrix enters the third phase of live testing today, welcome to follow.After reading, I noted three things. My first reaction was not "Here comes another big shot," but rather to separate the resume halo from the business progress in a clear list, so I wouldn't automatically assume industry benefits just because a traditional finance executive is entering.
1. According to SEC filings, Bullish appointed former NYSE President Stacey Cunningham as company president; she also served as an advisor to Uniswap Labs. I think this is more significant for institutional business than retail sentiment: her resume spans traditional trading markets and crypto, which helps bridge the needs of both sides, but it doesn't mean the business is already running smoothly.
2. I'm more concerned about the business puzzle behind the personnel: Bullish announced in May 2026 the $4.2 billion acquisition of transfer agent Equiniti, expected to complete in January 2027. If the acquisition proceeds as planned, my speculation is that securities registration and transfer could connect with trading processes, offering more imagination than just looking at executive titles.
3. The company has been approved in Gibraltar to conduct tokenized securities trading, which is a landing condition, not proof of demand. For ordinary users, I will continue to watch whether the product can open up, the trading costs, and liquidity, rather than taking the license as a direct upgrade in experience.
My list conclusion is: the direction is promising, the effect awaits verification; what will everyone add as a fourth point—progress with institutional clients, or actual trading demand for tokenized securities?According to public reports, this round of decline is accompanied by several structural signals:
BTC once dropped to $73,708, hitting a new low since August; ETH simultaneously fell to around $2,100.
The price has fallen below the short-term holding cost line of about $75,700, meaning that buyers who entered in recent months are generally at a floating loss. These holders have shifted from "holding" to "selling to break even," creating additional selling pressure.
There is also outflow on the spot side: last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $1.28 billion, with a single-day outflow of $412 million on Friday, including about $403 million outflow from BlackRock's IBIT in one day. This is crucial: the selling pressure is no longer just from derivatives leverage; spot buying itself is retreating. The rebound previously supported by futures leverage quickly collapsed during liquidations.
Macro and event factors resonate: the Nasdaq plunged in one day due to AI valuation concerns, the outlook for crypto legislation became unclear due to midterm election results, and there was also a confidence shock from a large Binance theft incident. $BTC Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin started to recover today, but the way it is recovering is worth keeping an eye on: starting from 16:00, users are allowed in batches, and by 18:00 all customers can log in. However, in the first phase, you can only view your balance and asset details; the trading buttons remain greyed out.
This is the real pace of "phased recovery." It's not a full reopening at once, but first showing you the ledger, then waiting for the market to restart. For an exchange after an incident, this order is deliberate: first prove the balance exists, then discuss whether it can be moved.
The official stance is that customer balance records are intact, with no impact on user assets, investments, or Real balances; subsequently, the platform will restore customer balances using its own funds. This statement carries more weight than it appears—users do not bear the shortfall on their accounts, meaning the pressure remains on the platform's own financial statements.
But seeing the balance does not mean you can withdraw. The balance updates in sync with access progress and market reopening; the numbers on the screen are an intermediate state during recovery, not the final value.
The most important thing to do during this window is not to bottom-fish, but to verify: after logging in, compare the quantity of coins and transaction history with screenshots taken before the incident. One more thing, don’t find it tedious—the platform specifically reminds users to manually enter the official website URL in the browser and not to click links in messages—the recovery period is precisely when phishing is most rampant.
Mainstream assets like $BTC and $ETH usually do not drop in such events; what falls is the platform itself. What is truly being priced is trust, not the coin price.This selloff is not selling. It is positions closing.
Everyone says risk-off. OI should build. It fell: SOL -5.4% vs -3.1% price, WLD -4.3% vs -1.3%.
Unwind, not distribution. PEPE is the only one adding, +3.0% OI on +2.2% price: borrowed, not bought. I hold what leverage leaves.
If OI drops under $40.5M, I flip.
Before the open, closed positions or new leverage?
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.
$PEPE $WLD $SOL #Pepe #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Altcoins ETH fell below $2100, BTC has five consecutive red candles: Is the bull market really over?
The most worrisome aspect of this downturn is not how much ETH has dropped, but the clear divergence in strength between BTC and ETH.
On November 9, ETH briefly dipped near $2100, and BTC hit a low around $73,400, both marking new lows since August. Even more notable is that ETH's recent decline has significantly outpaced BTC's, indicating that capital is prioritizing withdrawal from higher-risk assets.
From the market structure perspective, three major signals cannot be ignored: BTC's weekly chart shows five consecutive red candles; the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $1.28 billion in a single week; over the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated more than $1.1 billion, with ETH longs suffering especially heavy losses.
I believe it is still premature to declare the bull market logic completely broken, but the market has clearly lost the previously strong upward structure. Macro tightening expectations, institutional capital outflows, and concentrated leverage liquidations are jointly suppressing risk appetite.
What really needs caution is that a rebound does not equal a reversal. If BTC cannot reclaim key resistance levels and ETH cannot lead a relative strength recovery, the short-term market is more likely to enter a weak consolidation or continue searching for a bottom.
At this stage, I tend to lower bullish expectations, focusing on range trading and risk control, avoiding blind bottom-fishing, and no longer substituting bull market faith for trading discipline.
The bull market can wait, but principal cannot wait alongside the market. $BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ November 10 CPI: Not a “Direction Decider,” but a “Volatility Trigger”
The market consensus on October CPI is: overall monthly increase of 0.3% (slowing from 0.6%), core monthly increase of 0.2%. But this "cooling" expectation is built on a fragile base: in September's overall CPI, energy contributed a very large weight, with gasoline year-on-year increase as high as 34.2%. The so-called "slowdown" is largely a one-time reading correction due to energy prices falling from a high level, rather than a substantial easing of the core inflation trend.
For BTC, the damage potential of two scenarios is asymmetric:
Scenario Condition Potential Impact on BTC
🟢 Core CPI meets or is below expectations (0.2%) Substantial easing of inflation trend December rate hike probability may slightly decline, but BTC's rebound space is still constrained by the resistance zone above 78,661. Marginal improvement in liquidity expectations is unlikely to drive a trending market
🔴 Core CPI sticks at 0.3% or above Inflation pressure does not ease as expected December rate hike probability will jump further from the current 80.5%. BTC faces not a "pullback," but forced deleveraging under leverage structure — its decline is likely to be significantly greater than the US stock market because the crypto market's transmission chain for liquidity tightening is shorter and steeper
Core judgment: CPI is more likely to act as a "volatility trigger" rather than a "direction decider." The scenario that truly needs caution is not inflation broadly exceeding expectations, but overall and core inflation sticking together — that will simultaneously tighten liquidity expectations and stagflation narratives, causing BTC to lose its most relied-upon macro support in the short term $BTC $ETH $SOL #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #伯克希尔Q3回购96亿美元，现金储备创新高 Berkshire repurchased $9.6 billion in Q3, the highest this year, with cash and short-term U.S. Treasury holdings rising to $377.4 billion, setting a new record. While aggressively buying back its own shares, cash reserves have not decreased but increased, signaling that in the current U.S. stock market environment, low-priced, high-quality acquisition targets meeting Berkshire's standards are scarce. The new management under Abel believes that the cost-performance ratio of its own stock is better than most external assets, which is why they chose to increase buybacks.
Notably, this quarter Berkshire slightly net sold external stocks, a shift from the continuous net buying stance in the first half of the year, indicating a rise in defensive positioning. The high cash position allows it to continue earning high-yield U.S. Treasury returns on one hand, and on the other hand, retain ammunition to wait for significant market corrections and opportunities where quality assets are undervalued.
At the same time, earnings in the financial report have declined, with insurance and investment income under pressure, indicating that both real economy and securities investments are challenging currently. For the market, Berkshire's high cash is a "crisis reserve," but the reluctance to make large moves also indirectly reflects institutional caution toward current U.S. stock valuations. Key follow-ups include the pace of future buybacks, whether large acquisitions materialize, and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The most dangerous time in the market is often not when bad news has already appeared, but when everyone is waiting for the same answer. At 21:30 Beijing time on November 10, the US October CPI is about to be released. This is the last complete inflation report before the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. For the current global financial market, the importance of this data may far exceed that of an ordinary economic indicator release. Because the market has already made its judgment in advance: the US economy still has resilience, inflation may not be as easy to come down as imagined, and the Fed's monetary policy may need to be more hawkish than expected. The real question now is whether this expectation has already been fully priced in by the market. 1. The market is repricing the Fed's tightening cycle. Last Friday's US October nonfarm payroll report was significantly stronger than market expectations, with 165,000 new jobs added, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The signal conveyed by this data is very clear: the US labor market still has strong resilience, and the economy has not shown sufficiently obvious signs of cooling. After the employment data exceeded expectations, the market's bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in December has risen to about 80%. Compared with the previous level of about 67% during the significant adjustment of the US stock market, the interest rate expectations have changed significantly. This means the market is shifting from previously expecting a monetary policy pivot to gradually accepting the reality that high interest rates may be maintained for a longer time. But here is a key issue: strong employment does not necessarily mean inflation will rebound. The nonfarm data determines whether the Fed has$SNDK 🫀 Regarding SanDisk's stock split, I don't think there's a need to be too anxious.
A stock split basically just lowers the unit price, adjusts the holding quantity proportionally, and the total value doesn't disappear out of thin air. With a lower price, the entry barrier is reduced, and liquidity might improve.
But what really matters isn't the stock split, it's the position size.
SanDisk has dropped from around 1900 to about 800, a nearly 58% decline, with heavy trapped positions above. Currently, long accounts consistently hold about 86%-90%, and the long-short ratio can even reach 6.5-9 times.
So I've been wondering, is 800 really the bottom?
If I were the main force, with so many trapped positions above and a bunch of leveraged longs below, why would I rush to push it up?
The stock split isn't scary; what we really need to guard against is that 800 might not be the bottom.
With heavy trapped positions above and an imbalanced long-short ratio, without major positive news, a quick V-shaped recovery is unlikely. It looks more like a downward choppy grind, slowly finding the bottom.
For longs that are trapped, I prefer to do T trading to reduce cost; stubbornly holding to break even costs too much time.
For now, I see the bottom area around 550-720.
If it can't hold near 750, then this area will likely be tested.
Long term, I still remain optimistic about SanDisk, but being optimistic long term and bearish short term are not contradictory.
The worst is using long-term logic to justify short-term trapped positions.
$BTC
Just my personal opinion, feel free to discuss $SNDK Some say the US and Iran are close to a peace deal, and a bull market in crypto is coming❓
First, you need to figure out: Does the US definitely want to fight Iran?
1. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large amount of global oil passes. If Iran gets out of control, oil prices can easily skyrocket, directly impacting US inflation and disrupting the Federal Reserve's rate cut schedule.
#美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解
2. Iran has strong influence in the Middle East, supporting regional militias, directly challenging the US and Israel's layout in the region.
3. The US wants Iran to completely abandon its nuclear development, neuter its countermeasures, and lose its bargaining chips against the US.
Why are the US-Iran negotiations repeatedly dragging on, with Iran unwilling to concede?
Nuclear-related capabilities are Iran's "life-saving trump card."
With nuclear deterrence, opponents hesitate to act rashly; if Iran completely abandons its nuclear program, it loses its hard bargaining chips and will be at the mercy of US sanctions and control, with no security guarantees.
So Iran's negotiation bottom line is very firm. They may negotiate temporary ceasefires or compromises on the strait, but will not easily concede on nuclear issues.
This is why this round of negotiations is destined to be a tug-of-war!
What do you think will be the final outcome between the US and Iran?
A. Reach a temporary agreement, only easing tensions in the strait, shelving nuclear issues, and temporarily reducing risks.
B. Nuclear red lines fail to be agreed upon, leading to a breakdown, renewed conflict expectations, and a resurgence of safe-haven markets.
C. Long-term stalemate and tug-of-war, with fluctuating news and ongoing volatile shakeouts. The earnings report hasn't been released yet, but the stock price has already risen 15%.
Rocket Lab will release its Q3 earnings after the US market closes tonight, with market expectations of revenue around $257 million and a loss of $0.067 per share.
RKLB is currently about $53.1, up from the last close of $46.02, with today's high reaching $53.10 and trading volume higher than usual.
Before the earnings report, funds are rushing in, betting on revenue growth and news of Neutron's maiden flight.
Interestingly, the entire crypto market is down today: BTC at 74,208 down 2.2%, ETH at 2,103 down 5.9%, XRP down 6.1%, clearly money is flowing out.
RKLB has dropped about 37% from the high of 85.44 in August, and today's rise hasn't even reached halfway back.
I'm still watching and not chasing: only if the earnings beat expectations and revenue growth holds can it be considered stable; if Neutron's launch is delayed again in the call, today's 15% gain is just borrowed.
When the earnings come out, do you think it will continue to rise or pull back first?
$RKLB
#RocketLab财报24-hour spot fund data released! Significant divergence among multiple assets, SOL and USDC continue to attract funds, BTC shows violent short-term inflow, ETH still outflowing on the daily chart
📊 Fund statistics for each coin:
✅ $BTC
6h: Net inflow of 54.6661 million U
8h: Net inflow of 59.2223 million U
12h: Net inflow of 8.8961 million U
24h: Net outflow of 18.1542 million U
✅ $ETH
6h: Net inflow of 27.0334 million U
8h: Net inflow of 27.6289 million U
12h: Net outflow of 43.5007 million U
24h: Net outflow of 41.7146 million U
✅ $SOL
6h: Net inflow of 11.2044 million U
8h: Net inflow of 12.4726 million U
12h: Net inflow of 7.0149 million U
24h: Net inflow of 13.0172 million U
Core analysis (based on market updates):
The daily level has not completely reversed yet; ETH and XRP are still generally in outflow, with medium-term selling pressure slowly releasing. However, short-term inflow signals are already strong, with BTC and ETH seeing significant bottom-fishing entries at 6 to 8-hour levels, and SOL attracting funds across all timeframes, with on-exchange liquidity continuously replenishing.
In short, it's a process of selling while absorbing; the aftershocks on the daily chart are not over, but bottom-fishing funds are already accumulating in batches. Tomorrow night at 9:30 PM (Beijing time, November 10, 21:30), the US October CPI will be released.
As a newbie, this is the first time I've seriously marked it on my calendar because this might be the last key data before the December rate hike.
Let's look at the expectations first: overall CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, previous value 0.6%; core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%, previous value 0.3%. Last week’s October nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The market’s bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in December has already risen to about 80%.
There’s a detail I almost didn’t understand: last year the US government shutdown caused missing year-over-year data this time, so everyone can only focus on month-over-month data. That means even a 0.1% deviation could be amplified by the market.
How exactly does the CPI affect my account? I understand the chain like this: CPI beats expectations, rate hike expectations strengthen, US Treasury yields rise, high-valuation tech stocks and risk assets like BTC come under pressure; conversely, if CPI is below expectations, at most it’s a short-term breather and doesn’t mean a market reversal.
So now I’m not guessing the data nor planning to bet on the direction in advance. Leveraging in before the data comes out is not much different from flipping a coin. What I can do is treat tomorrow night as an observation point to see how the market digests it, rather than betting on an answer beforehand.
Will you adjust your positions ahead of the CPI, or wait for the data to land before making a move? OKB is currently trading at $OKB 98.03, navigating a persistent downtrend from its recent high of 143.32. The 1D chart reveals the price attempting to consolidate near a crucial psychological support zone around 95.55. The MA5 is flattening out near 102.18, but the MA10 and MA20 remain overhead as strong resistance.
Will the bulls step in here to defend the psychological $OKB 100 mark, or will the bears force a harsh retest of the lower support?$KORU The Korean index is still falling! After so long of market rescue efforts, are retail investors still the ones paying the price?
Those still stubbornly holding onto the Korean index probably have a bit of a broken mindset by now. Every time it drops, someone says the government will rescue the market; every time it rebounds, someone thinks the bottom has been reached. But as soon as money goes in, the market turns around and hits you with a bearish candle.
The problem with the Korean stock market now is not just short-term negative sentiment, but also doubts about subsequent policies and market confidence. Today they call for market rescue, tomorrow there are all kinds of policy battles. What retail investors really want to see is sustained capital support, not repeated verbal bottom-line assurances.
Today the Korean index hit a low near 6.09 again; the morning rebound couldn’t hold and it continued to weaken. How many people are still thinking about bottom-fishing at this level? I guess quite a few have shifted from initially being firmly bullish to now just hoping to break even.
I’m not saying the Korean index has no chance to rise in the future, but at this stage, if I had to choose between the Korean index and storage leaders, I would lean more towards core names like Hynix and Samsung.
The reason is simple: the Korean index reflects the entire market’s expectations, influenced by policies, exchange rates, capital flows, and many industry weightings; whereas Hynix at least has relatively clear industrial logic support from AI computing power, HBM, and storage demand.
Instead of putting funds into an index that requires waiting for overall market confidence to recover, it’s better to focus on core companies that truly benefit from AI industry demand.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ Here are my several viewpoints
1. If only looking at net profit figures: there is a probability of delivering an impressive report, provided that OpenAI's current valuation holds and is not significantly downgraded, and the fair value of equity continues to contribute substantial unrealized gains; this is also the underlying logic behind many short video discussions on this topic.
2. If considering real operational quality and cash flow: it is hard to call it "impressive." Profits heavily depend on the valuation fluctuations of an unlisted AI company, resulting in highly volatile performance, typical of a high-risk, high-volatility investment-type financial report, not stable profitability from the main business.
3. To summarize the core of this headline in one sentence: whether SoftBank's Q2 financial report looks good essentially bets on whether OpenAI's valuation can remain stable and rise; the numbers may look good, but this brilliance is very fragile and not solid operational results.$DOT
Continuously tracking and holding DOT spot for over 5 years, summarizing the advantages of Ethereum and the JAM protocol
Ethereum advantages: extremely strong network effects (developers, liquidity, tools, users), battle-tested ecosystem, active L2 innovation. Suitable for scenarios requiring deep integration with existing DeFi/applications.
JAM advantages: architecturally pursues higher native parallelism and unified security, attempting to solve the problem of "reduced composability after scaling." It is more like integrating "native shard execution + shared state environment" into the L1 layer, rather than relying on external L2.
Relationship: not simply an "Ethereum killer," but an attempt with a different philosophy. Ethereum follows the "lightweight L1 + specialized L2" route; JAM bets on "a general-purpose L1 built with high parallelism and mostly consistent state." The two may be complementary (for example, JAM can serve as high-performance computing/rollup infrastructure) rather than complete replacements.#SoftBank bets heavily on OpenAI, can the Q2 earnings report deliver impressive results? Here are my several viewpoints
1. If only looking at net profit figures: there is a chance to deliver an impressive report, provided OpenAI's current valuation holds and is not significantly downgraded, and the fair value of equity continues to contribute a large amount of unrealized gains; this is also the underlying logic behind many short videos discussing this topic.
2. If looking at real operational quality and cash flow: it is hard to call it "impressive." Profits heavily depend on the valuation fluctuations of an unlisted AI company, with highly volatile performance, representing a typical high-risk, high-volatility investment-type earnings report, not stable profitability from the main business.
3. To summarize the core of this headline in one sentence: whether SoftBank's Q2 earnings report looks good essentially bets on whether OpenAI's valuation can hold steady and rise; the numbers may look good, but this brilliance is very fragile and not solid operational results. The data from $BTC Hyperliquid is quite interesting; these whales are now almost all shorting BTC.
The short positions have piled up to over $900 million, twice the size of the long positions, hitting a recent high. The largest single position is $178 million, with an average entry price at 76400.
However, seeing this data, it actually feels like the shorts are a bit too crowded. So many people are betting on a drop, but if BTC doesn't fall at this level and instead rebounds slightly, these people will definitely rush to close their positions to stop losses.
When the buy orders from closing positions come out, it could very well push the price up directly, triggering a short squeeze. It all depends on whether the shorts can successfully push the price down or end up being harvested by the bulls.When the market just flashed a breaking news, I was staring blankly at the SOL position curve. A sharp plunge happened—guess which moved first, the news or the leverage that couldn't hold? The offline event in Lujiazui, Shanghai, was abruptly halted, spreading faster than the candlestick chart. The advertising space on Citibank's exterior wall and the venue for Accelerate China 2026, both halfway prepared, were paused by the central bank together with local financial regulators, public security, and market supervision. The classification is clear: SOL is essentially a virtual currency, and its domestic promotion crossed the red line set by the February joint notice from eight departments. Further investigation into related entities will follow. OKX quotes $87.38, down 1.93% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about 67.12 million USDT, and the intraday low touched 84.98. My first reaction was not "bad news landing," but to check the derivatives side's reaction. The subtlety of this compliance-related news is that it doesn't hit protocols or on-chain activity, only brand exposure and offline entry points. In other words, the fundamental narrative is not disproven, but the marginal growth is cut off. The first to react are often the leveraged positions: before and after the news, short-term positions tend to pile up in the same direction, and once funding rates get overheated, this kind of needle-shaped volatility becomes a breeding ground for squeezes. The rebound from the low of 84.98 to around the current price of 87 looks more like a breath after a leverage cleanup rather than a trend confirmation. The bullish logic is that on-chain protocols haven't stopped, ecosystem development hasn't stopped, and what's restricted is the domestic marketing channel, which is an expected compliance friction; panic selling will be released and then the market will be lighter. The bearish risk is hidden in the detailsBasically falling, but Arb is rising!
In the Binance hack incident, the Arb Security Council froze 74.55 million ARB and 840,000 ETH in one wallet. Binance has officially requested to send this money back to the designated wallet. The vote hasn't started yet, but the market is already blocking it—either returning to the exchange or being handled by the DAO, both sides are positive! $ARB #Looking at the xQQQ to USDT daily chart trading at 661.37, the market shows signs of trying to stabilize after a massive selloff. Just like the sharp drop from the 747.07 high down to the 640.32 bottom, this asset has a history of brutal swings. Remember when it plunged heavily in late October and early November, only to find strong buyer defense near the lows? Right now, we are seeing a small bounce up by nearly one percent, but moving averages like the MA20 sitting higher at 691.56 prove that NVDA at $176, do you dare to buy?
A single-day plunge of 9%, market cap evaporated by 400 billion, CEO rumors flying everywhere, regulatory threats looming — everyone is shouting "The AI bubble has burst." Just now, the price dropped to around 175, RSI hit 25 in the oversold zone, and the Q3 earnings report on November 17 is just days away. Is this the end of the bull market or a golden buying opportunity?
First, look at the surface: bad news lined up to crush the market, bulls are beaten down and can't lift their heads.
From the October high of 243 down to 176, a drop of over 20% in one month. It broke below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the weekly rising wedge pattern broke down, and MACD shows a bearish alignment. The news is even harsher: post-midterm election regulatory concerns intensify, export controls may tighten again, CEO personal matters and board investigation rumors pressured pre-market. On November 5, a single-day drop of 9%, market cap evaporated over 400 billion USD.
First thing: what's falling is the stock price, not computing power.
Latest earnings: Q2 revenue 96.2 billion USD, +106% year-over-year; data center revenue 89 billion USD, +117% year-over-year; gross margin 75%. Q3 guidance 108 billion USD. FY2028 preliminary revenue growth expected around 70% — note, this is under "supply constrained" assumptions, actual demand is higher.
The Vera Rubin platform has already started shipping, accounting for about 20% of data center revenue next quarter. Big customers like AWS are still increasing orders.
In plain language: AI demand hasn't collapsed, orders haven't collapsed, gross margin hasn't collapsed. What collapsed is your leverage and sentiment.
Regulation is a real risk, but it won't kill computing power demand. It will only concentrate the survivors. NVDA is the concentrated beneficiary.
Second thing: the $176 price already factors in a lot of pessimistic expectations.
Forward P/E has significantly declined, some analysts point to a range in the teens. Most Wall Street price targets remain at 250-300+.
Do you know what this means? The market is not pricing in "NVDA is failing," but rather "NVDA can't skyrocket like before anymore." These are two different things.
Customer self-developed chips, memory cost squeezing gross margin to 71-73%, China revenue basically zero — these negatives are already priced in. What you're afraid of now is what you should have feared three months ago.
Third thing: technically oversold, earnings are the turning point.
RSI daily has hit 25-30, the oversold zone. 175-170 is strong support, 164-165 near the 52-week low. Volume has increased confirming selling pressure, but after oversold, a technical rebound can come anytime.
Key event: Q3 earnings on November 17.
If guidance beats expectations and FY2028 growth is confirmed, a V-shaped rebound is not a dream.
If it misses expectations or regulations tighten further, it may dip to 165 or even lower.
Those who cut losses before earnings will likely regret it after, but those fully invested before earnings may also get buried. This is the current situation.
Bull vs. bear showdown, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Revenue +106% YoY, data center +117%, gross margin 75%
Vera Rubin shipments started, AWS continues to add orders
Forward valuation significantly digested, Wall Street targets 250-300+
RSI oversold, 175-170 strong support
Earnings could be a catalyst for reversal
On the other side:
Regulatory concerns intensify, export controls may tighten
CEO-related rumors suppress sentiment
Moving averages bearish alignment, weekly structure weakening
Interest rates 3.75-4.00%, high rates suppress growth stocks
Breaking below 175 may accelerate drop to 165
Key levels
Resistance above: 181-185 → 190-195 → 200-205 (200-day MA)
Support below: 175-170 (strong support) → 164-165 (52-week low)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Don't heavily short; oversold rebound can come anytime. Hold 175 with volume rebound, light long positions, target 181-185, stop loss 172. If 175 breaks with volume, wait or light short, target 170-165, stop loss above 178. Shorting here risks getting stuck at the bottom.
Mid-term players:
Wait for November 17 earnings clarity. Aggressive traders can build long positions in batches at 170-175 with low leverage, stop loss below 165, target back to 200+. Conservative traders wait to hold above 185-190 before adding.
Long-term believers:
If you are bullish on AI long-term, the value at 176 is already attractive. Dollar-cost average on dips or hold spot with low leverage, target 250+. But be prepared to endure a 10-15% further pullback. Long-term means not watching the chart obsessively, or watching but not panicking.
NVDA now is like NVDA at the end of 2022 —
99% of people thought "The AI story is over," but it went from just over 100 to 240. $BTC $ETH $NVDA This is currently one of the worst positions in terms of odds. BTC is shorted at 73,550, with only 4.7% room down to 70,000, but if it rebounds, it will face resistance at 75,700; ETH is bought at the bottom at 2,110, with layered resistance at 2,157/2,200 above. Neither side is comfortable, the best solution is to stay put. Today I came across a breaking news headline that read "Over $10 billion positions liquidated in 24 hours," but the article body said "over $1 billion." The headline had an extra zero. This is exactly the kind of task I assigned to AI earlier this week: not to summarize the news, but to "verify" each number — how much it is, the unit, the original source, the time of the statistic, and whether it matches other sources. Running through it, there were indeed quite a few issues:
1. Liquidation amount: According to CoinGlass, about $1.04 billion, with long positions about $930 million; $ETH liquidations were about $455 million, more than BTC's $279 million.
2. Tomorrow night’s US CPI (Tuesday 21:30 Beijing time): some say the expectation is 0.2%, others say 3.9%, but one is month-over-month and the other year-over-year; last month they were 0.6% and 3.7% respectively.
3. $BTC is currently around 74,900 on OKX, with a 24-hour low of 73,500. I only trust exchange data for real-time prices, not secondhand reports. But I don’t let AI draw conclusions for me. It’s responsible for flagging suspicious points, and I still open the original text to verify each number myself. AI can also misread units; its value lies in spotting where something might be off before I do. This week has been tense already; misreading a zero could throw off the entire judgment. What kind of checks do you have AI help with early in the week? To be honest, when BTC hit 73,751 this afternoon, I thought it was going to touch 73,500 tonight.
But it didn’t hit that level, and climbed back to 74,872 in the evening, also reclaiming the daily EMA200 (74,540).
But I didn’t dare to make a move. The long-short ratio surged to 3.06 at 16:00, now it’s 2.98, and as soon as the price bounced a bit, longs rushed in. I generally don’t trust this kind of rebound.
Also, Nvidia dropped about 6% pre-market, and crypto stocks weakened along with it. The US stock market opens at 22:30, and tomorrow night at 21:30 is the CPI release again.
My plan: watch and wait tonight. If 74,540 holds, wait for the CPI release before making a move; if it falls back, see if there’s buying interest around 73,500.
After the US market opens, what do you think: will BTC hit 75,000 first or fall back to 74,500 first?
Data as of 20:30, personal opinion, not investment advice.
#BTC #CPI