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The US October CPI will be released on November 10 (8:30 AM Eastern Time), and it is one of the most important inflation data points before the December FOMC meeting. The overall CPI year-on-year for September has risen to 3.7%, with the core year-on-year around 2.6%. The market generally expects the overall month-on-month for October to be about 0.24%-0.3%, and the core month-on-month about 0.2%, mainly supported by a slowdown in gasoline price increases and a decline in some commodity prices.
The expectation for a rate hike in December is currently high. CME FedWatch, Polymarket, and others show about a 76%-80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with about a 20% probability of no change. The October meeting was held steady, pushing the window for action to December.
If the core month-on-month lands at 0.2% or below, and subcomponents (especially housing and core services) do not show significant acceleration, it may slightly reduce the probability of a rate hike in December; if the core month-on-month rises to 0.3% or above, and the diffusion is broader, it will further consolidate or even increase rate hike expectations.
For the market, single-month data will not solely determine policy but will significantly affect interest rate path pricing. Soft data is favorable for a decline in US Treasury yields and a breather for risk assets; hot data strengthens the upward pressure on the dollar and yields. Focus on core services, housing subcomponents, and signs of energy transmission to the core. Before the December meeting, there are also November employment and more inflation data; this CPI is key but not the only variable. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ When I saw this message, my first reaction was not "regulation again," but rather: crypto assets have moved one step closer to ordinary property. I think this is beneficial for legal certainty, but it cannot be directly translated into a positive impact on coin prices.
On November 9, the Administrative Office of the Supreme Court of South Korea announced that the revised Civil Execution Rules took effect on November 1, clarifying the procedures for seizure, transfer, and liquidation of crypto assets. Platforms holding coins can seize users' asset transfer requests; assets in personal wallets can be prohibited from disposal and must be handed over to enforcement officers for management, then lawfully sold or transferred to creditors.
What really matters is that creditors now have a clearer path to recover assets. The number of civil enforcement cases involving related platforms increased from 423 in 2023 to 3,136 in 2025, and reached 3,186 in the first nine months of 2026. This volume indicates that the execution rules respond to real disputes, not just theoretical fixes.
For ordinary users, I want to remind myself: holding private keys does not mean assets are outside the law. But just because courts can issue orders does not mean on-chain assets will automatically be received. If actual enforcement still depends on debtor cooperation, then there may still be a gap between clear rules and smooth execution — this is my speculation.
I will continue to observe how far actual enforcement can go, rather than rushing to label this news as bullish or bearish.BTC's trend one year after the midterm elections!
Long-term value investing is not about buying into trends, but about finding stable value assets within the trend and holding them at a reasonable price. $BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 You might think the problem with CORE is that no one is supporting its price, but what’s even more painful is that it’s losing even the qualification to be traded. A four-year cycle has passed, and are you still waiting for it to tell a new story? Recently, I reviewed CORE’s price trend, and my biggest feeling wasn’t anger, but calm. Without institutional endorsement or major capital support, the market depth is basically sustained by retail investors betting against each other and system matching. In this structure, rebounds often just follow the overall market sentiment and rarely develop into independent trends. What’s more alarming is that the time cost has already sunk: after completing the four-year cycle, the ecosystem hasn’t taken root, market cap hasn’t grown, and the price has returned near the starting point. This actually indicates that its development logic has already failed once. But I want to correct a common misjudgment: many people attribute CORE’s weakness simply to the “project being no good,” ignoring the cross-market linkage transmission. At the current stage, the risk appetite of BTC and ETH is the master switch for altcoin rhythms. Capital first looks at the certainty of mainstream assets before deciding whether to penetrate downward. Without real incremental capital entering CORE, it means it’s at the end of the linkage chain—when the market rises, it lags; when the market falls, it bleeds first. This is not a narrative issue, but a capital priority issue. Even on the bullish path, one must stay clear-headed: if there is substantial business progress later, or breakthrough capital injection, combined with BTC stabilizing and driving risk appetite recovery, CORE theoretically could have a corrective emotional catch-up rally. But the potential risk is also obvious: without ecosystem and market cap support, the asset is most likely to become a distribution target during divergence phases, reversing.Unitree rises again by 6.63%, shorts lose money every hour
UNITREE perpetual contract currently at $104.26, up about 6.63% in 24 hours. From 9 AM to 3 PM today, there were 7 consecutive negative settlement rounds, with a peak hourly rate of −0.258% at 11 AM. The current reference rate remains at −0.144%, annualized over 1400%.
The painful part is for the shorts holding on. The address starting with 0xfdf1 began shorting on October 20, with a cumulative net funding payment of $112,100 over 20 days, exceeding 113.70% of its 10x leverage-adjusted initial margin (about $98,600). Including unrealized and realized losses, the total loss in this round is about $430,400.
For those holding contracts, just watch one number: the liquidation price for this address is $124.36, about 19.2% above the current price as a buffer. If the funding rate doesn't turn positive, this contrarian short position is essentially exchanging principal for time.Ethereum has dropped, so why is Arbitrum's token still rising?
$ETH is quoted at 2,143.77 USDT, down 4.2% in the last 24 hours, while $ARB is at 0.1718 USDT, up 1.2%. The divergence occurs in the latter half of the rebound: ARB has already surpassed the pre-drop level around 0.167, whereas ETH remains below the previous sideways level of 2,230. Technically, the two are related, but short-term trading differs. When trading on Arbitrum One, fees are generally paid in ETH, and buying ARB is essentially bidding for governance rights and ecosystem expectations.
As another layer-2, $OP hasn't followed ARB's trend. OP is quoted at 0.09985 USDT, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours, bouncing near 0.10 before dropping again. The OP mainnet also uses ETH to pay fees; more chain usage means more transaction fees. However, this time the market prices for OP and ARB have diverged. Looking at these two trends, saying that layer-2 tokens are strengthening together doesn't align with OP's market performance.
Let's compare with SOL. At 87.8 USDT, down 1.6% in the last 24 hours, its drop is close to OP's, but the fee payment paths differ: Solana's base fees and optional priority fees are paid in SOL. When the network is congested, how much users are willing to pay for priority reveals how urgent transactions are within applications. It's convenient to place public chain tokens and layer-2 governance tokens on the same price movement list, but what's truly useful is knowing what currency users ultimately use to pay those fees.$BTC Short-term holders underwater at ~$75,700 — that level is resistance now, not support. #BTC #Bitcoin$BTC $ETH crypto market leverage levels are retreating, with funding rates for Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) nearing neutral, indicating speculative positions are not overly crowded. However, this does not mean the downtrend has reversed, as key spot buying has not kept pace. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion last week, with a very sudden shift in funds—from net inflows on Monday quickly turning into net outflows by Saturday, as institutions concentrated their withdrawals, favoring a risk-off exit. Ethereum ($ETH) is experiencing a more prolonged situation, with spot ETFs having outflows for six consecutive weeks, totaling approximately 2.02 billion, continuously draining market sentiment. The leverage bubble being squeezed out means positions are no longer crowded, but this does not equate to a market turnaround. Without sustained spot buying support, the market lacks new backing forces. The focus now shifts to the upcoming CPI data release, which will determine whether this round of ETF outflows is just a short-term cleanup or the start of a long-term institutional portfolio adjustment. Until spot capital flow improves, the market is more likely to trade sideways or continue to probe lower. Inflation data is the most important macro test ahead.Right now, many groups are discussing OKB, and it's mostly all criticism. A consensus has been reached that no veteran players dare to play anymore; it's all newcomers and newbies buying. The newcomers and newbies were fooled by a group of KOLs from Orbit some time ago. Those posting to hype it up are said to be paid promoters helping to unload tokens because OKX plans to abandon OKB, but Mr. Xu and the platform hold over 19 million OKB and want to sell. So every time someone posts to praise OKB, it's actually a slow sell-off. At this stage, it's just continuous selling; once it's all sold, OKB will be delisted, ending up like OKT. Some say it's already decided, others say it will be even worse than OKT. They say the team lacks vision and is solely focused on harvesting users. It can't compare to Binance because where is the price? All BNB holders have made money. Also, starting today, the price will keep falling. Recent Crypto Market Analysis
BTC is reported around $74,200, with a weekend dip to 73,708, marking the lowest since August, down 41% from the all-time high of 126,259 in October last year; ETH fell faster, briefly breaking below 2,100; XRP is approaching the $1 mark.
Over $1 billion in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which are long positions, with 140,000 people liquidated — leveraged longs have been wiped out in two rounds.
Why the drop?
1. Regulatory shift — Democrats swept Congress, with strict regulator Warren possibly taking control of the Senate Banking Committee; crypto legislation pushed by Republicans over the past two years faces reversal.
2. Institutional retreat — Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, the largest since the end of June; selling pressure has surpassed the leverage layer and hit the spot layer.
3. Macro rate hikes — After a strong nonfarm payroll report, the probability of a rate hike in December is near 80%, raising the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets.
4. AI bubble resonance — The Nasdaq is undergoing a technical correction; crypto and tech stocks share the same risk appetite pool.
5. Exchange risks — The aftermath of a $6 billion theft at a certain exchange remains unsettled; the U.S. Treasury has cut off MEXC's USD channel, increasing counterparty risk.
The weekend was further complicated by scandals involving Huang Renxun and deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations — with U.S. stock markets closed, crypto became the only pressure relief valve.
Don't go all-in in panic, nor exit entirely in panic.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $CORE 🚨 Only 150 minutes left until OKX reopens deposits and withdrawals for $CORE! 🕰️
If resumed according to the announced time, this will be an important window to observe liquidity.
It is worth noting that this is already the second time this quarter that CORE has experienced a suspension of deposits and withdrawals.
From the previous abnormal reward incident, to the theft of B14g staked assets, and then the exchange suspending deposits and withdrawals, CORE is facing not only price pressure but also a test of market trust and liquidity.
Resuming deposits and withdrawals does not mean trust is simultaneously restored.
What really needs to be observed next is:
Will there be concentrated withdrawals after resumption?
Will the price gap inside and outside the exchange widen?
Is CORE facing a new round of selling pressure?
The market will provide answers through capital flows.
Personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR. NVIDIA drops nearly 4%, while Hon Hai surges nearly 6%! What exactly is the market trading this time? 🧐
The scandal involving Huang's extramarital affair continues to ferment. NVIDIA perpetual contracts on OKX once fell nearly 4%, but on the other side, the Taiwan stock market showed a completely different trend.
Hon Hai, which assembles AI servers for NVIDIA, surged nearly 6% right at today's open! In just half an hour, it not only recovered all the losses from Friday but also drove the Taiwan stock index up by more than 1,200 points.
Originally, the market was worried that the Asian markets on Monday would be dragged down by the NVIDIA news. Unexpectedly, while NVIDIA is falling, Taiwan's AI supply chain is actually rising.
The key is to clarify the timeline first:
1️⃣ Taiwan stocks closed at 1:30 PM on Friday. 2️⃣ Subsequently, the U.S. semiconductor sector rose 4.2%, and TSMC ADR surged 6.3%. 3️⃣ Today's rise in Taiwan stocks largely makes up for the overnight gains after Friday's close. 4️⃣ Huang's admission of the extramarital affair and the board's investigation started around 4 AM today, when NVIDIA's U.S. stock had not yet opened for trading.
Looking at the crypto market, OKX's NVIDIA perpetual contracts fluctuate around $180, and the funding rate has turned negative, meaning shorts are starting to pay funding fees to longs.
What really deserves attention is the U.S. stock market opening tonight.
If NVIDIA's stock really opens 4% lower, how much of today's 1,200+ point gain in Taiwan stocks can hold tomorrow?
Short-term sentiment is one thing; how capital truly prices it is another.
Tonight, keep a close eye on NVIDIAMy first reaction: It’s like seeing someone pushing a shopping cart into a supermarket, and someone next to them immediately shouts, "New spending has arrived!" But I want to ask: Bro, did you just get paid, or did you return goods to the neighboring store? 😂
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi’s monitoring, 0xFD1…6FEe3 bought 10,000 ETH through CowSwap at an average price of $2,149.25, worth about $21.49 million. ETH has become the largest on-chain asset for this address. I think this transaction is big enough, but it can’t be directly taken as evidence of new industry capital inflow.
The reason is simple: the data doesn’t explain the source of funds, and the purchase scale doesn’t equal the scale of new funds; a single address doesn’t represent all positions held by the owner. If related addresses are simultaneously reducing holdings, then the overall exposure may not increase synchronously — this is my speculation and needs further verification.
Would you rather first check the source of funds or whether related addresses have done reverse operations? I choose the former; even when watching the drama, you have to see which cart the melon was unloaded from first.Sandisk (SNDK) Stock Split First Day: $835 "Visually Cheap," But Valuation Disagreement Remains
On November 9, Sandisk's 1-for-8 stock split officially took effect, with each share split into 8 shares. Trading with the adjusted split price will begin on November 20. Last Friday's closing price was $835.06, with intraday fluctuations ranging from $816 to $912, ultimately closing near the lower end of that range.
The stock split does not change any fundamentals but presents a clearer choice: a company with a forward PE of only 3.67 times and a long-term contract locked in for about 50% bit shipment in fiscal year 2027, yet the market is only willing to assign this multiple. Before the split, Wells Fargo and RBC had just cut their target prices from $1550 and $1600 to $1300 and $1400 respectively, citing "shrinking earnings multiples"; meanwhile, Bernstein's pre-split target price of $3000, after the split, equates to about $375, still several times above the current price.
The stock split lowered the per-share price to a "visually cheap" range, but $835 is just arithmetic, not a valuation answer. The real issue remains unresolved: how many times the market is willing to multiply a cyclical profit that will eventually decline. After trading begins with the split adjustment on November 20, whether incremental buying can offset this gravitational pull is what should be watched next.Bitcoin prices continue to decline, and market panic is spreading, but on-chain data shows an intriguing divergence: long-term holders' positions are starting to loosen, while short-term holders remain relatively stable in sentiment.
According to on-chain data from November 5, the realized loss scale of chips transferred by long-term holders (LTH) to exchanges reached 139 million, indicating that some older chips held for a long period can no longer withstand the ongoing pressure in the market and have chosen to exit. In contrast, short-term holders (STH) have not simultaneously triggered panic selling of the same scale. After sufficient turnover in the previous period, the average holding cost of the short-term holding group has dropped to the 75K–76K range, and the current coin price is just near their breakeven line, so no concentrated stop-loss has been triggered.
Another key signal worth noting: although the absolute scale of realized losses across the market remains high, the losses have not continued to accelerate. This sends a clear message—market panic does exist now, but the momentum for further panic spread is weakening. I personally tend to judge that BTC is currently in the early stage of a bull market, undergoing a challenging chip restructuring period. $BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ An address under continuous surveillance did something counterintuitive on-chain.
In August this year, the address 0xde8d...9524 related to the UXLINK security incident pushed a large amount of funds into Hyperliquid, establishing long positions on $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP perpetuals: about 30,282 ETH, 550,000 SOL, and approximately 35.03 million XRP, with a nominal value close to $148 million, quietly maintaining the positions for nearly three months.
Common sense suggests that assets of unknown origin should be quickly layered, transferred, or disappear. Instead, it put the money into a public, leveraged contract account and then took directional bets.
On November 9, it used TWAP to gradually close the long positions in batches, completing execution in about 16 hours, exiting around 6 a.m. the next day. Estimated losses were about $3.3 million. Losing $3.3 million on a $148 million position is just a few percentage points, far from liquidation. This was not a forced liquidation but a paced surrender.
Why at this timing? One can only speculate: the heavy position exposure was too obvious, continuing to hold meant bearing volatility under the spotlight; the tracked identity combined with large contracts inherently created uncertainty. The pressure may not have come from price.
Previously, tracking stolen assets ended with where the money stopped; now funds may complete the cycle from opening to closing positions within decentralized derivatives. Attackers can also be wrong about direction—should "hacker profits" be deducted by losses?上周（11月2日至8日）风险资产整体偏弱，周中加密市场一度反弹，周五美股科技与存储板块急跌后，风险情绪再度转弱。BTC、ETH反弹未能延续，原油高位日线高点信号兑现，黄金则从年内低位反弹并重新站上4K。盘面主线仍是美股波动向加密市场传导，商品走势则出现分化。 BTC周初从7.65附近的1H低点反弹至7.85附近，但始终未能重新站稳8W。周中大饼跟随市场反弹，ETH突破下降线后，BTC也一度走强，不过仍未能突破前高8.2。周五美股大跌后，BTC又回到7.6附近。进入本周一早盘，价格进一步下探并短暂跌破7.5三角支撑；虽然出现12H低点，但目前还不足以改变弱势结构。 ETH上周初在2250附近承压，周四一度突破下降趋势线并来到2400附近，短期目标曾看2520；但周五美股急跌后又回到2200附近，本周一早盘进一步跌破2200，表现比BTC更弱。SOL刷新下跌新低，BNB、NEAR、ZEC也出现不同程度的回落。加密市场缺乏持续热点和广泛赚钱效应，短线反弹仍需要BTC、ETH及其他主流币共同确认。 美股方面，QQQ在此前跌破日线趋势后，两次回踩730都没能重新站上。上周五科技、存储等AI相关板The hypothetical figure of “$62.6 billion” is indeed eye-catching. I used to be easily swayed by such big headlines, directly translating “possible” in my mind to “imminent.” The flawed thinking lies here: mistaking the impact of the story for the weight of evidence.
This material links marriage rumors, company investigations, and market fluctuations together, but until the original letters and announcements are verified, I won’t take it at face value. My judgment is that the most easily overestimated inference is the one that “divorce will inevitably trigger massive sell-offs”: whether there is a divorce, how assets are divided, and whether sales occur cannot be equated. If this narrative spreads to AI-related sectors, I guess the most common mistake ordinary people make is using unverified gossip as leverage justification.
Now I set two rules for myself: first, major news must be traced to original sources; second, assumptions about family wealth should not be directly treated as trading signals. Honestly, missing out on the hype once is more important than rushing to prove you’re quick to react."The earliest will be May 2027," I think this is the most significant information in Solana's proposal to deprecate persistent Nonce: the technical mechanism can be phased out, but the migration pressure cannot be dumped on users overnight.
The proposal is still pending finalization, including content such as custodians switching to a new offline signing process and the alternative program adopting different rules for failed transactions. I prefer to see it as an infrastructure migration issue rather than a market catalyst; those more directly affected are custodians relying on the existing process.
Why focus on this timing? Because adjustments to the offline signing process could impact the entire business chain. My guess is that if custodians need to simultaneously modify signing, approval, and exception handling steps, then allowing enough verification window is more important than rushing to complete the upgrade. The calendar buffer ultimately needs to translate into operational reliability.
But I also don’t want to misinterpret "there’s still time" as "the problem is solved." The proposal sets boundaries but does not complete the migration for institutions, nor can it be used to judge what experience improvements ordinary users will get. Next, I will look at whether the alternative process can be clearly explained and thoroughly tested, rather than prematurely labeling this news as positive.The overnight drop was brutal, $BTC plunged to 73,708, a new low since August, with 855 million in liquidations, long positions bore 90.2% of the losses. But the funding rate stubbornly didn’t turn negative, and Binance’s long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16; what was taken away was leverage, not positions.
$ETH was even worse, with 456 million liquidated, more than Bitcoin, so weak it didn’t even bother to struggle.
A-shares turnover was 1.48 trillion, shrinking by 175.2 billion. The surge in coal and robotics stocks looked lively, but over 3,100 stocks were falling, volume was retreating, and the faster rotation felt more like exhaustion.
The US market saw the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jump 4.21%, AMD up 11%, but the Dow was in the red. The nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, which ironically pushed up the probability of rate hikes. The chip stocks’ own rebound couldn’t lift the whole market.
Solana’s Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved parties are under investigation. The regulatory cracks have never loosened.$BTC standard accumulation manipulation method, starting from the afternoon retail investors' chips were thrown out and absorbed, if no one absorbs, it would be quickly smashed through directly instead of slowly grinding hour by hour #NebiusQ3AICloudGrowth
Nebius is highly likely to meet its Q3 revenue target
because its existing June momentum already guaranteed a strong baseline. The real metric to watch is their updated Annualized Revenue Run-Rate (ARR); any infrastructure or chip delays that threaten their aggressive $7.0B+ year-end goal pose the biggest risk to the stock.There are only two reasons to follow me: first, I post the real BTC position ratio and stop-loss price every day after the market closes; second, I don’t delete posts on days I have unrealized losses. In the past 142 days, there were 37 losing days, and the screenshots are still there.
After last night’s non-farm payroll release, the probability of a rate hike was raised again, and the December CPI became the next pricing anchor. My judgment is that BTC’s sensitivity to interest rates this round is clearly weaker than in 2022: the position structure has shifted from leveraged contract longs to spot plus ETF subscriptions and redemptions. Macro negative factors now bring more volatility rather than trend reversals. The real risk is not in the data itself but in the market’s repricing of "no rate cut," where leveraged funds can’t withstand those two spikes.
My action is simple: I reduced my position from 50% to 30%, didn’t clear it out, and set the stop-loss 6% below cost; if it breaks, I’ll reduce by half again. I don’t guess the direction, I just execute the conditions.
With this round of macro negatives, do you reduce your position first and wait for the CPI release, or hold and bet that December won’t cut rates but BTC will still rise?
Follow me for daily public real position and stop-loss logic, and I write honestly even when losing.
#BTC #ETH #JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds
#OKXProphet $DOGE I saw it on the volatility list this morning, then it was -2.5% in 24 hours, and when I checked again in the afternoon, it became -3.5%.
It evaporates about one point a day, the decline is still expanding, but the trading volume can reach over 40 million dollars — the volume is not small, but the price keeps grinding down.
Some say it’s because the CEO muttered “the altcoin season won’t come back,” which dragged Doge down. Take that with a grain of salt; Doge has been falling for three months — down 20% from 30 days ago, and those who bought six months ago are still down 39%. Can one CEO’s words control Doge’s price for three months?
My take: there’s no serious capital washing the market in this volume, it’s just no one is buying, and retail investors are grinding it down bit by bit. The volatility list has now become a list of coins no one wants; Doge was last on it because of a drop, and now it’s back again. $DOGE $SNDK has broken a new low, and you're still thinking about bottom-fishing???
Old Liu already said earlier that this is definitely not the bottom. If you try to bottom-fish, he will only bottom-fish your home!
After two days of consolidation without the support of US stocks over the weekend, Monday still shows no rebound, proving that it has started to lose capital attention!
Now that the previous low has been broken, panic in the market has intensified again. The panic caused by the Democratic Party's blanket crackdown on the AI sector has not yet subsided. Institutions are not bottom-fishing, so why are you? The right move is to short on the rebound #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $BTC is now at 75,799, appearing to have only dropped 0.19%, but it has actually fallen nearly 6% over the past three days, with the price grinding near the weekly low. Interestingly, liquidation volume has shrunk and almost disappeared, with only about 60 million in 24 hours, down 70% from the previous day. Leverage was already cleaned out by the recent declines, so it's not new money holding the position, but old positions being lifted.
$ETH is weaker, down nearly 8% in three days, without any decent rebound. The aftermath of the Binance hack and regulatory concerns following the Democrats taking Congress are hanging over, all bearish factors present, yet the price barely moves.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.32%, but over 3,100 stocks declined, with turnover shrinking by 177.1 billion. Robots, coal, and 6G sectors are taking turns leading, volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rose 4.21%, the AMD stock surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days. The non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, pushing the probability of a rate hike to 76%. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can't drive the whole market.#Circle Q3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49%# Stablecoin settlement expansion provides sentiment support for cross-chain asset DOT, but the market has yet to confirm. I judge that DOT's short-term trend is still dominated by technical factors, with weakness unchanged.
Price dropped 4.9% in the past day, quoted at 0.8521, almost touching the intraday low of 0.8406; the four-hour chart shows a 21.65% retracement from the high, with a clear downward structure. The top ten sell orders in the order book total 35,000, outweighing buy orders of 22,000, with a buy-sell ratio of 0.62, indicating selling pressure dominance. Funding rate is -0.0157%, open interest at 10.536 million, bearish sentiment is relatively strong.
Strategy: Light short positions can be tried on a rebound to 0.8613, with stop loss at 0.8746 and target at 0.8268; if volume breaks below 0.8406, enter short at 0.8385, stop loss at 0.8521, target 0.8172. Single position should not exceed 5% of total capital, exit immediately on breakout.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$DOT#Elon Musk expects SpaceX to exceed $100 billion in annualized revenue by year-end
#Circle Q3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49%
$DOT How much fluff is really hidden in CORE's buyback rescue roadmap?
The two core narratives of the 2026 roadmap: large-scale lock-up bringing a huge BTC staking volume, and ecosystem revenue converted into continuous buybacks to support the token price, were once the most important logic supporting market confidence. But now, after the b14g coin theft and the price continuing to decline, investors are beginning to re-examine the fulfillment quality of this blueprint. First is the fluff in the "30 billion lock-up" narrative: the Bitcoin lock-up scale in the promotional statements mostly involves time-locked staking, not permanent lock-up; after expiration, users can freely unlock and withdraw. Once market expectations turn cold, staked funds will quickly flee, and the locked volume can shrink at any time. Coupled with competition from other projects in the sector, projects like Babylon continuously poach BTC staking users, so CORE's actual new staking increments fall far short of early promotional expectations. Second is the market's high hopes for the buyback rescue promise: the roadmap clearly states that ecosystem-generated revenue will be used to buy back CORE, offsetting token inflation lasting 81 years and improving the token economic model. But so far, there is no on-chain verifiable record of large-scale buybacks; the narrative remains at the planning stage without real capital inflows. Without real buybacks in cash, inflationary selling pressure cannot be effectively hedged. Adding to this is the fatal impact of the b14g vulnerability, and the controversy over hard fork ledger modifications severely damaging decentralized consensus, greatly undermining project governance credibility. Now with liquidity continuously drying up and prices hitting new lows, it is difficult for investors to continue buying purely based on PPT expectations Last Thursday, the four major spot ETFs all saw outflows. BTC had a net outflow of $1.28 billion, ETH $365.28 million, SOL $26.25 million, and XRP $529,510, with none showing positive inflows.
First, let's look at how the numbers are distributed. BTC accounts for the vast majority, ETH about 30%, SOL dropped to the tens of millions, and XRP only around fifty-some thousand. In the same week and same direction, the scale differs by three orders of magnitude.
So this is not "four coins being abandoned together," but rather four different situations masked by the same numbers. The $BTC and $ETH ETF pools are large and have frequent subscriptions and redemptions, so any redemption amount naturally looks huge; $SOL and $XRP outflows are small, possibly because subscriptions were never high to begin with, so it doesn't indicate panic.
Mechanically, a net outflow from spot ETFs means authorized participants redeem shares and sell the corresponding spot assets. This chain doesn't consider sentiment, only prices and spreads; it answers "who can convert the asset to USD at the current price," not "who is optimistic about the future."
My judgment: this round looks more like institutional portfolio adjustment and profit-taking, not systemic withdrawal. The real focus should be next week—if $BTC sees net outflows for a second consecutive week without a reduction in scale, then that would indicate a trend; a single week can only be considered noise.
A question to leave you with: when all four ETFs turn negative simultaneously, can you tell which is being sold and which simply has no buyers? These two scenarios look exactly the same on the market.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for $AXIS, slippage on both entry and exit sides has significantly increased. Simulated slippage for buy/sell at a scale of 10,000 is 0.27%/0.27%, and for 100,000 it is 1.82%/1.60%. Large orders are estimated based on the 100,000 level cost first, not the 10,000 level.【On-Chain Trading Update｜ETH】
Detected short position opened by address 0xc532:
▪ Execution price: $2,153.6
▪ Transaction amount this time: $134,944.58
▪ Leverage: 25x
What do you think about opening a short at this position?
Note: This address has earned over $33,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +120.47% Circle Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but ETH continues to fall. USDC on-chain transaction volume increased by 49%, indicating expanding demand for stablecoin settlements, while ETH/USDT dropped -6.63% in the past 24 hours, currently priced at 2,093 (OKX 1H market data, past 48 hours).
These two events occur on different chains: USDC transaction volume reflects on-chain payment and settlement activity, related to the stablecoin issuance side; ETH's price elasticity depends on its own demand growth and risk appetite, with no direct gains from this $ETH financial report.
From the 90-day high of 2,756, it has retraced -24.07%. In the past 90 days, there have been 7 days with single-day declines ≤ -4%, showing repeated downward momentum.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% 🚨 US STOCKS AT RISK OF CONTINUING TO PLUNGE AFTER THE ELECTION!
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on November 5. History shows that US midterm election years often experience strong corrections, although not entirely due to the election.
SCENARIO:
- Selling pressure increases → S&P 500 continues to decline
- Tests EMA 200 → important support zone
- Holds EMA 200 → recovery opportunity
- Breaks EMA 200 → risk of deeper decline
The market may need another correction phase before resuming the uptrend.SpaceX's $100 billion annualized revenue target is eye-catching, but looking into the financial report, the sources of growth and profit are actually quite different.
In the third quarter, SI business revenue was about $7.56 billion, accounting for more than half of total revenue; connectivity business revenue was about $5.248 billion, contributing operating profit of about $2.367 billion, significantly higher than the SI business's operating profit of about $431 million. The fastest-growing part of revenue and the part contributing the most profit in the quarter need to be viewed separately.
The financial report also clearly mentions that SI growth is driven by cloud service agreements, the Cursor acquisition, and other factors. When analyzing subsequent growth, changes brought by existing business expansion and acquisitions must be clearly accounted for.
I find this more interesting than simply predicting revenue to multiply several times. Different businesses require different capital investments, and profit performance and sustainability may vary greatly. Putting all revenue into one total and applying a single valuation multiple easily overlooks internal differences.
If the $100 billion target is realized, it is certainly worth attention. But shareholders need to know how much profit the new revenue ultimately leaves, which businesses are contributing funds, and which still require ongoing investment.
I am willing to look at growth, but I also want to see that the growth calculations make sense. The larger the company, the more important segment data becomes; otherwise, a nice total revenue figure may cover up questions that need to be asked.
#马斯克预计SpaceX年底年化营收突破1000亿美元 $ETH 2091: Long-short ratio 3.44 and the "liquidity trap" of negative fees
Don't be fooled by "too much drop," the current market is a textbook market maker meat grinder.
• Data deception: 77% of accounts are long, but the fee rate is -0.011%. This is not a bottom, but a double kill scenario of the main force "spot suppressing + contract shorting," with contract discount proving bears hold pricing power.
• Liquidity backlash: Look at that peak in active sell volume, it's not panic selling, but the main force's market orders directly swallowing retail investors' lower limit buy orders. You place limit buy orders to catch the bottom, they use your orders to close shorts.
• Hidden landmine: Negative fees attract spot-futures arbitrage (buy spot, short contracts), which only brings short-term false bottoms. Once the basis is repaired, arbitrage closing will trigger a secondary bottom.
Trade deduction:
The 2180-2200 range above is a heavy trapped zone; any rebound is bears gathering strength. Abandon left-side limit orders to catch falling knives.
Right-side iron rule: Wait for the long-short ratio to fall below 2.5 and fees to return positive (deleveraging complete), or after a volume drop below 2050 followed by volume divergence before reconsidering.
Not investment advice. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The overnight drop was brutal, $BTC plunged to 73,708, a new low for August, with 855 million liquidated and longs holding 90.2%. But the high fees didn’t turn negative, and the long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16. What was taken out was leverage, not positions.
$ETH was even weaker, with ETFs seeing outflows for six consecutive weeks, another 365 million left last week, and 80% of liquidations were longs, so they didn’t even struggle.
A-shares turnover was 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion. The coal and robotics sectors hit their daily limits, looking lively, but over 3,100 stocks fell. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index bounced 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow was down. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls actually pushed up the odds of a rate hike. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can’t lead the whole market.
Solana’s Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved parties are under investigation. The regulatory cracks have never loosened.深夜盯盘的人最怕什么？不是暴跌，而是你刚砍掉的仓位突然朝你预判的反方向狂奔。$SNDK 就在深夜上演了这一幕：价格不跌反涨，一位交易者眼睁睁看着超过2万美元的浮盈蒸发，均价888.93的持仓成了烫手山芋。他判断这是流动性扫单，认定“肯定上不去”，甚至放话开盘还要砸、涨了就加仓。这种笃定，恰恰是当下最值得警惕的情绪样本。 先别急着站队。真正值得拆解的不是他的盈亏，而是他归因的方式——把逆向波动一律解释为“清算操纵”，等于提前给自己发了免错金牌。市场结构里，流动性猎杀确实存在，但把每一次不利走势都塞进这个框架，就会错过真正的信号：如果深夜拉升只是扫单，量能应快速衰竭、价格回归；若价格在高位持续承接，那就不是扫单，而是有人在提前布局。这个分歧点，才是$SNDK 短线多空的分水岭。 再看$AKE 这条线，情绪更赤裸。他嘲讽“没实力的庄别装”，抱怨连像样的负资费都拉不出来，喊话“赶紧砸”。这里藏着一个被多数人忽略的机制：负资费拉不出来，往往说明空头拥挤度不够，或多头仍在付费持仓，轧空燃料不足。换句话说，他想要的双向爆仓剧本，市场根本没给条件。把“资费没到位”当成庄家无能，其实是误读了资金费率这个This is seriously screwed, $BTC broke through 75000 just like that, directly dropping to 73385, and $1.17 billion worth of longs instantly vaporized. Huang Renxun, I’m stuck with your monkey, and now this crap comes out of your pants at this moment!
The 200-week moving average below is at 67700, and the middle support at 73700 if it doesn’t hold, it’s a vacuum zone.
The funding situation is even worse. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, the worst since June, and the cumulative amount this year has turned negative. BlackRock IBIT is the main force running away, and the speed of Strategy buying coins has visibly slowed down. Institutions are withdrawing, Ethereum has been bleeding for six consecutive weeks, and the whole market is just holding on by tough talk.
The macro situation is even more desperate. The Democrats took both houses, and old lady Warren is eyeing the Senate Banking Committee; the crypto regulatory knife is already at the neck. Huang Renxun’s private moral issues broke out at this critical moment, the board has launched an investigation, Nvidia futures plunged directly, a $4.5 trillion AI market cap star is shaking like this, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was just bloodied 12% on Thursday, and SanDisk dropped 22%. The crypto market’s drop this time isn’t because its fundamentals are bad, but because the AI faith collapsed and liquidity was drained, forcibly pulling it down.
Old Pig, I’ll say one last thing: don’t be reckless trying to guess the bottom now. If 73500 breaks, it’s 68000. Isn’t the bloody lesson from Brother Baibai holding the position enough? Control your hands, wait for this wave of liquidation and regulatory thunder to pass, survive first, then talk about other things.
⚠️Market observation only, not trading adviceCrypto leverage is cooling, but the spot bid is not there to catch it. That is the real message from this week's derivative and fund-flow data, and it matters more than the neutral funding rates themselves. Funding on $BTC and $ETH sits near neutral, a healthy sign in isolation. It says speculative positioning has not stretched to an extreme. It does not say the downtrend has reversed. If spot buying fails to keep pace, price can keep drifting sideways or slide further in search of liquidity. Le美国参议院设调查小组委员会民主党首席议员理查德·布卢门撒尔已致函Binance、Tether、World Liberty Financial（WLF）及TRUMP币发行实体Fight Fight Fight LLC，要求四家实体在2027年1月4日前提交调查材料，并警告不配合将面临“进一步措施”。 关键不在信函本身，而在时间点, 新一届国会将于2027年1月3日召开。若民主党掌握参众两院，布卢门撒尔有望出任调查小组委员会主席，届时将拥有强制索取文件、传唤证人的权力。目前只是“自愿配合”请求，截止日却设在权力交接翌日，信号很明确：要么主动交材料，要么等传票。Binance：17亿美元、赦免与USD1调查把三条时间线并置约17亿美元伊朗关联转账、CZ获特朗普赦免，以及Binance与特朗普家族稳定币USD1的深度合作。报道称，过去一年约1500个Binance账户被伊朗籍人士访问，合计约17亿美元流向与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队、胡塞武装等关联实体；Binance否认并称风险敞口已大幅下降。2025年10月，特朗普签署对CZ的赦免令。与此同时，USD1绝大多数持仓集中在Binance，BinancThe early morning plunge was brutal, $BTC dropped to 73,510, the lowest since August, with over 1 billion liquidations, longs held on through 90% of it. But the funding rate stubbornly didn’t turn negative, and Binance’s long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16; what’s being taken away is leverage, not positions.
$ETH fared even worse, liquidation volume exceeded that of Bitcoin, with a single whale losing 61.41 million in one trade; the long liquidation price was stuck at 2004, so weak that it didn’t even bother to struggle.
The A-share market closed at 1.48 trillion, shrinking by 175.2 billion. The coal and robotics sectors hit their daily limits, looking lively, but over 3,100 stocks declined. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
In the US market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell, the S&P 500 dropped 2.68% last week, and the Nasdaq fell 3.37%. The chip stocks’ own rebound couldn’t lift the whole market.
Over at $SOL, the Lujiazui advertisement was taken down by the central bank before it even got hot, and the involved entities are under investigation. The regulatory noose has never loosened.Two ETH short positions: one secured profit, one already breakeven
Let's start with the results.
First position (previous tweet): entered at 2225.16, exited at 2193.43.
The take profit didn't reach my original plan of 2151 because ATR shrank from 9.15 to 3.97, so the 8x target shifted to around 2193. I exited when it hit that.
Second position: entered short today at 13:00 at 2136.86, now at 2097, floating profit +17.6%.
Stop loss has been moved from 2170 to 2134 (breakeven). Worst case is break even; the rest will wait for 2046 or a 1h bullish reversal.
Both entries follow the same logic: 1h bearish alignment, strong ADX, 15m pullback failure. $ETH $BTC's two waves of sell-offs are essentially the same set of pressures being repeatedly triggered, not a sudden "unexplained crash."
The early morning wave (Sunday night to Monday early morning): Only crypto markets were open over the weekend. The market first digested two risk messages — Nvidia CEO scandal/investigation and stalled US-Iran negotiations — risk appetite was directly shut down. Meanwhile, after the midterm elections, the Democrats control Congress, and funds worry about tighter crypto regulations (with hardliners like Warren gaining influence). Bitcoin was hammered down to about 73,700 (around the low since August), and Ethereum fell below 2100–2200. Leveraged longs were liquidated, with over about $1 billion cleared in 24 hours, including about $900 million longs; Ethereum liquidations were even harsher than Bitcoin’s, so it dropped more sharply.
Just now, another sell-off: This is a continuation of the same logic, not a new story. Spot ETFs saw large outflows last week (Bitcoin ETFs had weekly outflows on the order of billions of dollars), Binance’s hack aftermath is still ongoing, and institutional buying can’t catch up; once the price broke key levels, another round of chained long liquidations amplified the decline. On Gate, BTC is now about 73,800 (around -2.8%), ETH about 2086 (around -6.9%), with Ethereum still clearly weaker.
In short: Regulatory concerns + ETF withdrawals + weekend risk events → support broken → accelerated leveraged liquidations. There is also the US CPI tomorrow, so short-term volatility will remain high; don’t assume the one-sided move is over. The two waves of sell-offs are essentially the same set of pressures being repeatedly triggered, not a sudden "unexplained crash."
The wave in the early morning (Sunday night to Monday early morning): Only crypto markets were open over the weekend. The market first digested two risk messages — Nvidia CEO scandal/investigation and stalled US-Iran negotiations — risk appetite was directly shut down. At the same time, after the midterm elections, the Democrats took control of Congress, and funds worried about tighter crypto regulations (with hardliners like Warren gaining influence). Bitcoin was hammered down to about 73,700 (around the low since August), and Ethereum fell below 2100–2200. Leveraged longs were liquidated, with over about $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, including about $900 million longs; Ethereum liquidations were even harsher than Bitcoin’s, so it dropped more sharply.
Just now, another wave of sell-off: It’s a continuation of the same logic, not a new story. Spot ETFs saw large outflows last week (Bitcoin ETFs had weekly outflows on the order of billions of dollars), Binance’s hack aftermath is still ongoing, and institutional buying can’t catch up; once the price broke key levels, another round of chained long liquidations amplified the decline. On Gate.io now, BTC is about 73,800 (around -2.8%), ETH about 2086 (around -6.9%), with Ethereum still clearly weaker.
In short: Regulatory concerns + ETF withdrawals + weekend risk events → breaking support → accelerated leveraged liquidations. There’s also the US CPI tomorrow, so short-term volatility will remain high; don’t assume the one-sided move is over. $$ETH #$BTC "Unable to accept a feasible compromise"—this phrase reminds me of my mindset when I used to follow regulatory news: always hoping for a one-step solution and treating any progress as if it were a near certainty. Honestly, the lesson is that expectations run ahead of reality, and I still thought I had good judgment.
McHenry said the industry missed opportunities and also admitted his own responsibility; although the bill passed the House, it got stuck in the Senate procedural vote. I think the biggest caution is to avoid treating regulatory progress as a certainty for contract trading. If even compromises can't be reached, the rules remain uncertain, yet ordinary people are easily swept up by the atmosphere of "getting clear soon."
I now follow two rules: first, distinguish whether policy news is just a statement, passing, or taking effect; second, don't loosen your position limits just because you think the policy direction is favorable. After all, watching the market outside of work means limited energy—survival comes first. Has anyone else been misled by the "regulation is about to land" hype? Would you be willing to share one rule you use to judge policy news?An established protocol was hacked for $665,000, and the announcement is as candid as a breakup text!
This morning, ACryptoS, a DeFi yield aggregator protocol launched in 2020, disclosed it was attacked: 5 chains, 77 vaults lost about $665,000. The vulnerability was in the vault contract's input validation; the attacker could mint most of the vault shares by depositing a tiny amount of tokens, then withdraw others' funds. Their documentation originally stated "No code vulnerabilities have been exploited since launch" — six years undefeated, brought down by an unfinished validation.
The team's response was rarer than the vulnerability: deposit function was disabled, withdrawals remained open; they offered the attacker a "10% bounty if funds are returned"; then directly announced — no resources left to maintain, project ceased operations, users urged to withdraw assets promptly.
No blame-shifting, no empty promises, no "please give us more time," as candid as a breakup text: I'm done, you leave, take your stuff, don't look back.
The surreal part is the order: many projects lock withdrawals and seek new funds to cover losses after hacks; this one opened the gates for users to leave first, then sat down to negotiate a "commission" with the hacker. A six-year-old protocol, survived bear markets, died over a line of validation and a sentence of truth. If you still have funds in small protocol vaults, check your positions tonight.
$ETH $BNB $BTC is now at 75,799, down only 0.19% in 24 hours, looking stable, but it has dropped nearly 6% cumulatively over the past three days, with the price grinding near the weekly low. Interestingly, the liquidation volume has actually shrunk, only about 60 million in 24 hours, down 70% from the previous day, indicating that leverage was already cleaned out by the recent declines; now it's not new funds holding on, but old positions being lifted.
Funding rates are so low they can be ignored, the long-short ratio is 58 to 42, and the fear and greed index is 26, showing a bearish sentiment but no one really dares to push prices down further. $ETH is weaker, down nearly 8% in three days, without even a decent rebound.
The A-share market closed with 1.4 trillion in turnover, coal, commercial aerospace, and CPO sectors taking turns leading, but over 3,100 stocks declined, volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days. The nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, which actually pushed up the probability of rate hikes. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can't drive the whole market.
Solana's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved units are under investigation. The regulatory gaps have never loosened.Quest is going to be gradually shut down, so let me pour some cold water first: this looks more like a business reset rather than a sudden surge in L1 demand. The Galxe team and brand will be merged into Gravity, focusing on L1 development and applications; ID and Passport will also be gradually closed, but the network will continue to operate as usual, and the G token remains unchanged.
I am bearish on the sentiment interpretation of this news for two reasons: the enthusiasm for completing tasks cannot be directly taken as evidence that users are willing to continuously use the chain; concentrating resources can adjust supply but cannot create demand for users. My speculation is that if the market counts organizational contraction directly as growth, then expectations might be running ahead of the business.
Of course, the bulls might also be right. If subsequent applications can keep users engaged even without task incentives, I will change my stance—that would indicate the transformation is effective. Are you bullish or bearish? Do you think shutting down Quest is offloading baggage, or does it make it harder for Gravity to prove demand? Share your reasons.A personnel announcement often explains a company's intentions better than a white paper. On November 9, Animoca Brands announced that co-founder and executive chairman Yat Siu will become CEO on December 1, 2026, while former group president Evan Auyang will step down and become a senior advisor to the board.
The key is in the wording: Yat Siu will take over daily operations, project development, and strategic execution. The fact that someone already sitting as executive chairman is taking these three responsibilities back means power is shifting from setting direction back to managing implementation.
Implementation falls into three lines: the personal AI agent platform Minds, institutional business including digital currency and investment products, and Moca Network and AIR, which handle identity authentication and authorization. These three are actually one chain—the agent needs a wallet and identity to operate, institutions need credentials to enter, and identity and authorization are exactly the layer where $MOCA resides.
The judgment is here: Animoca used to be more like a super LP in the crypto primary market, profiting from paper valuations; now the founder returning as CEO signals a shift from investing in projects to building products. Holding companies discount net assets, product companies give imagination premiums.
But don’t rush to see this as purely positive. Building products entails operational costs and risks of implementation failure, and Minds faces a fiercely competitive AI agent market. The first roadmap after taking office on December 1 is what’s truly worth watching.#NVIDIA launches independent investigation, management stability under scrutiny BTC and ETH spot ETFs see weekly net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion
Data to watch this week: BTC+ETH spot ETFs have a weekly net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion, with BTC outflow at $1.28 billion and ETH outflow at $365 million. BlackRock IBIT has had five consecutive days of withdrawals, while Fidelity is still making small purchases, indicating this is not retail panic but institutions readjusting risk exposure.
Mid-term essence: Macro interest rate expectations are tightening, tech stocks are retreating, and ETFs are prioritized for position cuts. This is not a crash signal but a risk appetite cleansing.
Corresponding strategy: Do not chase rebounds, keep base positions, and wait for two signals — ETF outflows stop and turn into net inflows, and BTC volume surges above key ranges.
+2.58K USDT
Open the position list and verify the take-profit and stop-loss levels of heavy holdings.
$BTC $ETH $SOL