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Trump has spoken:
The fastest strike on Iran could be today.
Bitcoin is again hovering around 80,000,
It already broke below once last night.
Let's look at the accounts from the past few days:
On October 22, the strike plan was exposed,
Bitcoin dropped from 84,000 straight down to 80,000,
The big fund was redeemed for $635 million in one day.
As soon as the upgrade news came out,
the coin price dropped 2% to 5% that day.
Today is the final showdown,
Old Trump is really ruthless.
If they strike: no one will catch the fall over the weekend,
Bitcoin will be the first to get hit,
Whether 80,000 holds or not depends on these two days.
If no strike: an agreement is reached, bad news settles,
Instead, it should rise as it should.
Why is 80,000 so critical?
Long-term followers of my posts know:
The big fund's cost of holding coins is between 80,000 and 81,500.
If the daily close breaks below, they all turn to losses on paper,
The next support level is at 77,600.
Historical references go both ways:
On the day the war started at the end of February,
Bitcoin's price dropped then recovered that day;
After being hit in early September,
the next day it actually rose 5%.
The panic-induced dip
may not be a pitfall, it could be the bottom.
My view:
Don't do anything today.
Why?
No one can say for sure if there will be a strike,
Buying now is guessing it will rise;
Selling now is guessing it will fall.
If you guess wrong, it's a real loss of money.
When the result comes out tonight,
Whether it falls or rises will be clear,
Then act, it's not too late at all.
#Bitcoin #BTC 最近看到一位巨鲸的合约持仓，确实有点震撼！ BTC、ETH、SOL三笔空单同时持有，仓位价值合计约5.34亿U，账户永续合约总仓位价值约7.2亿U。 最有意思的是，三笔空单全部浮亏，但累计资金费收入已经超过1100万U！ 📊 先看看具体持仓： 🔴 BTC：5倍全仓做空 持仓2637.95枚，开仓价76327.4美元。 当前浮亏1206.22万U，累计资金费收入305.31万U。 🔴 ETH：5倍全仓做空 持仓约10.64万枚，开仓价2322.74美元。 当前浮亏476.26万U，累计资金费收入418.33万U。 🔴 SOL：7倍全仓做空 持仓约72.01万枚，开仓价94.3199美元。 当前浮亏595.50万U，累计资金费收入379.23万U。 💰 三笔合计浮亏2277.98万U，累计资金费收入1102.87万U！ 💡 说说我的看法。 这位巨鲸的持仓确实有意思。 三笔空单承担着巨大的价格波动风险，同时通过资金费收入缓解部分亏损。 但这里有个问题： 资金费赚得再多，如果价格持续反向上涨，照样可能扛不住。 而且资金费率会变化，并不是每天都能稳定收钱。 我觉得这套策略最大的考验，Yesterday I wrote on $ORDER: OKX only has perpetuals, no spot; the top 20 depth is only $11,000. Today, this statement is half-validated — last night it peaked at 0.10312, now at 0.05276, down 48.8%.
The depth is even thinner: now the top 20 buy orders total $2,451, sell orders $1,977, combined $4,428, less than half of yesterday. The 24-hour nominal turnover of OKX perpetuals is 343 million, while Orderly's market cap is only 22.6 million, a 15x turnover.
Funding rates are harsher: the settlement at 00:00 on 10-25 was -1%, shorts were paying longs 1%, then it narrowed to the current -0.146%. Perpetual discount: index 0.05321, mark price 0.05277.
Open interest dropped from a peak of 3.6 million to 2.4 million, down 33%, but the price fell 49% — longs were squeezed out, not voluntarily exited.
Upbit KRW market is down 27.96% today, with 24-hour volume of 348.4 billion KRW, about $260 million.
My lesson: thin depth doesn't mean you can't trade, but your stop-loss price will be eaten through by yourself. The stop-loss you place in such a market will execute at a worse price than you expect.
Did you chase on $ORDER, or are you waiting for a pullback? Earnings report exceeded expectations, but that doesn't mean you should chase the rally
RingCentral official Q3: Revenue $676 million, up 5.9% year-over-year; non-GAAP EPS $1.33, higher than market expectations of about $1.28 (Investing.com).
Full-year free cash flow guidance raised to $620–630 million, non-GAAP EPS guidance to 5.07–5.12.
$RNG opened high at 90.98 on October 23 (Friday), surged intraday to 98.14, closed at 83.39, up about 5% from the previous close of 79.42.
What I think is more critical is the intraday pullback:
Profits and cash flow look good, but subscription revenue of $653 million still falls short of some consensus around $667 million.
Surging to 98 then dropping back to 83 indicates that those buying the news are already taking profits.
My approach: observe, don't chase.
Wait for a volume-backed close above 98.14 (Friday's high) before considering a breakout.
If it falls below 79.42 (pre-earnings close), it means the gap fill is complete, so stay away.
Do you think Monday will hold 83, or will it fill the gap first?
$RNG $rng
#RingCentralQ3财报超预期
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ HBM4很难成为Q3盈利的主要增量，本季业绩主力仍是HBM3E+服务器DDR5涨价；HBM4的盈利拉动要在Q4和明年才会明显兑现$IRYS The BTC price has dropped to 80,000 so many times, yet I never got liquidated.
But my account went to zero, and it was actually because of a token called IRYS.
I was holding BTC properly, and ONE was also in my plan. Seeing IRYS surge tenfold in three days, I still couldn't resist opening a short. The price crazily rallied overnight, my margin got wiped out, and eventually, the entire account was gone.
The most ironic part is, I was originally watching BTC's four-year cycle, but in the end, I got wrecked by a short-term speculative token. Trying to catch a sudden opportunity ended up destroying my original trading plan.
This is actually a risk that's easy to overlook: positions in different tokens seem separate, but if they share margin, an extreme move in one can drag down other positions too. You think you're making several trades, but in reality, you've staked your entire account's survival on them all together.
The crypto world never lacks opportunities; the hardest part is not chasing every single one.
Everyone understands this, but when it comes to yourself, you still get itchy hands. 😂 This tuition fee was expensive enough.
$BTC $ONE
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Position Sizes:
* $BTC : Short 2,637 BTC, valued at $210 million, with 5x leverage and an average entry price of $76,327.
* $ETH : Short 106,400 ETH, valued at $250 million, with 5x leverage and an average entry price of $2,322.
* $SOL : Short 720,000 SOL, valued at $73.87 million, with 7x leverage and an average entry price of $94.30.
Total nominal exposure: Approximately $534 million — a massive bearish bet.
What stands out most are the reported liquidation prices.
#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI $APR ‼️ The bulls pulled so hard today, yet overall they are still at a loss!
The average entry price for the bulls is around 0.063, which is even higher than today's peak price.
In other words, even at the highest price point, the bulls as a whole couldn't break even, and now that the price has dropped, their losses have expanded.
Most of these long positions were opened at higher prices before, so every future rally will be an opportunity for them to reduce their positions.
Looking at the bears, their positions are larger than the bulls', and even though the price was pushed up significantly today, they are still making money overall.
Even such a strong rally couldn't make the bears lose money; if no stronger buying comes in later, the price will struggle to rise back up.
Such a fierce rally couldn't force the bears out, so the price will only find it harder to rise later. If not shorting now, then when!$SOL ：做多！
策略：
·等待价格回踩至99.5-100.5区间（前期插针低点上方及整数支撑区）企稳后进多。
·目标先看101.8-102.5（EMA均线密集压制区），有效突破则看104.6（空头平均成本区）。防守止损设在98.0下方。
核心依据：
1. 极度空头挤压：图二数据显示名义多空比仅16.58%，空头持仓高达3.48亿U，是多头的6倍以上。空头浮盈丰厚且极度拥挤，一旦价格企稳反弹，极易引发空头踩踏平仓，推动轧空上涨。
2. 插针深V反转：1小时级别在98.54暴力插针后迅速收回并收阳，表明底部有较强买盘承接，空头动能短期衰竭，存在修复反弹需求。
3. 阻力与盈亏比：上方EMA5/10/20高度粘合于101.8附近形成短期压制，当前追多易遇阻。回踩99.5-100.5支撑区接多，防守位清晰，博弈反弹至104空头成本区，盈亏比极佳。
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Next week really feels like a "final showdown"🔥
The Federal Reserve is very likely to hold steady; last month's inflation exceeded expectations but officials said "it won't affect the next meeting." Don't just focus on this one—the real fireworks will be in December's wording, where a single sentence from Waller could rewrite the market script👀
On the US-Iran front, Iran has signaled peace for the second time, Trump said "oil prices will fall from highs after the war ends," so the farce might be wrapping up; but with negotiations going back and forth, don't take the ending as set in stone🛢️
$AMZN earnings on October 29, the seasonal pattern of lows from July to October and highs from November to January has a chance, with the Christmas Q4 e-commerce peak as the driver; but the premise is that the earnings report doesn't collapse, as quality determines whether the peak can be realized📦
$DELL's Nvidia partnership plus Trump's children's accounts are quite lively, with short-term sentiment optimistic; but AI servers have high revenue elasticity and low profit elasticity, Nvidia components take the lion's share, so don't just look at the positives💻
$SPCX earnings are strong: revenue 14.6 billion, up 161% year-over-year, net profit 4.4 billion, the "big rocket" is priced attractively and the business has prospects, strongly related to TRUMP; but this is a double-edged sword—midterm election changes could bring regulatory and investigation risks🚀
In a word: the big picture is fine, but don't chase catalysts linearly on individual stocks; the real meat is in the expectation gaps after events land🥩#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Connecting to Nasdaq does not mean stocks can already be bought
TokenPost reported on October 24: NEAR co-founder said Intents is connecting to Nasdaq and NYSE, allowing counterparties to buy stocks and tokenize them to wallets.
The same article clarifies: this is a hypothetical path, not a completed transaction.
$NEAR, however, hit a low of 4.25 that day and closed at 4.408; OKX is currently about 4.419, down approximately 27% from the October 12 high of 6.028.
I think the key lies in the gap between "narrative" and "product":
The connection is to counterparty routing, not that users can now just click to buy US stocks.
On the same day, about $11.65 million long positions were liquidated, and on October 28 there is a Backers Summit to discuss token economics.
My approach: observe, don’t chase.
If it recovers above 4.896 (October 24 high), then watch for a bottom.
If it breaks below 4.25 (October 24 low), it means the sell-off is not over, keep your distance.
Do you think it will recover to 4.90 next, or break 4.25 first?
$NEAR
#纳斯达克指数连续两日创历史新高 $ETH
At the 2300 level, I am bullish, at least in the short term.
Today, ETH dipped as low as 2282, broke 2300 once again, then pulled back near 2345 by the close. It only dropped 1.4% in 24 hours, which looks much better than during the session. The midday news mentioned an address that opened 27,000 ETH long positions below 2300, a position worth over 60 million USD. The news reported a floating profit of about 800,000 and even tagged it with a “100% win rate.”
I usually read “100% win rate” with some skepticism, meaning it hasn’t been hit yet, not necessarily great skill. But daring to keep buying on the day of the breakdown shows real conviction.
The perpetual funding rate is now 0.001%, basically near zero, with open interest at 1.44 billion USD. Not many are chasing with leverage, indicating this rally is supported by spot buying, not contract hype.
Breaking down but recovering is better than falling through directly. I’m biased bullish, that’s it.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The hottest person in the meme circle recently is Solana trader Kimchi. He flaunts luxury cars and profits, officially announces cooperation with Pump.fun, and even collaborated with Bottega Veneta, with many big influencers endorsing him.
But on-chain data poured cold water: He claims to have earned 40 million USD through $TRUMP, but Bubblemaps tracked related wallets earning only about 6 million USD.
On October 20, someone launched a copycat coin with the same name. Three related wallets simultaneously bought the new and dumped the old, turning $7,332 into $111,700 in less than a minute. The original coin dropped from $5.35 million to $875,000 within 15 minutes, and those who entered later all ended up holding the bag.
Fengzi's anti-scam reminders:
1. Big influencer endorsements do not equal safety; the bigger the name, the easier it is to be exploited.
2. Same-name coins are everywhere; only trust the contract, not the name.
3. Anyone can fake screenshots of profits; verify with on-chain data before trusting.
4. If it pumps instantly at launch and the tokens are highly concentrated, better to miss out.
You can watch the excitement, but keep your wallet tight. #meme #Solana
Not investment advice, DYOR#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings We are just 9 days away from the US midterm elections.
History shows that after every U.S. midterm election, Bitcoin has experienced a correction.
Will this time be different?$ETH #BTC spot ETF funds fluctuate, can the market buying hold steady? $BTC is currently around 80,600, after a weekend dip to 79,146 it has recovered. The 50-day moving average at 81,700 has turned into resistance, and 82,700 is the line for recovery confirmation. 24h liquidations total 810 million, with long positions accounting for 689 million; ETF weekly net inflow is 301 million, but IBIT alone holds 566 million while others outflow 265 million, indicating a fragile structure. No position taking before the FOMC.From 0.058 to 0.046, the bursting of an L1 narrative bubble.
The recent $STRK market perfectly illustrates "buy the rumor, sell the fact." On October 8, news about L1 triggered a short squeeze, and after the vote ended on the 22nd, the positive sentiment was fully priced in, resulting in a weekly drop of over 43%, with bulls suffering heavy losses.
Trade data: shorted 50x at 0.05831. Three layers of logic: positive news realized, large token unlock approaching, and a bearish moving average crossover technically.
Mark price at 0.04638, profit +1022.98%. The market rewards those who stay calm.
What’s next? If the 0.04 support breaks, the decline will accelerate. This cycle teaches us: for coins driven purely by narrative hype, the realization of positive news marks the top. Respect the market. $BTC $IRYS FIL is not falling alone today. BTC and ETH have pulled back slightly, while storage-related tokens like AR, GRT, and FIL have seen much sharper declines. High-volatility sectors are taking the biggest hit. With FIL’s long positions heavily concentrated, broader market weakness could trigger cascading liquidations and intensify selling pressure.
#WillFedPauseInOctober $ETH's weekend dump was even harsher than Bitcoin's. On Binance at 11 PM Beijing time last night, the price dropped straight from 2,342 to 2,282, with $140 million traded in one hour, which is more than ten times the usual volume.
According to MyToken data, $781 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with $231 million in ETH liquidations alone, nearly catching up to $BTC's $250 million. By market cap, Ethereum's leverage is clearly heavier.
It has now rebounded to around 2,347, but is still down 1.3% over 24 hours. At 1 PM, the price was pushed down again from 2,368 to 2,337, with a weak rebound.
Binance futures hold about 2.29 million ETH contracts, equivalent to roughly $5.3 billion, with a funding rate of 0.009%. The longs were shaken out but haven't really exited.
The Fed meets next Tuesday and Wednesday, and oil prices remain above $117. I think ETH will struggle to have an independent rally before the meeting. If the 2,280 support breaks again, it will look quite bad. Yesterday the market saw a rare synchronization: BTC, US stocks, gold, and silver all fell together. Safe-haven funds did not flow into the crypto space but instead surged into US Treasuries. Even gold was sold off, indicating that this is not just a normal risk appetite cooling, but a tightening of liquidity.
The bond market sounded the alarm first: large corporate financing costs are rising, Meta's default costs hit a record high, and big players are choosing to stash their money in the safest places first. Oil prices surged again, inflation remains hard to suppress, rate cut expectations are further away, and liquidity will only tighten.
BTC currently has only one line of defense left: 80,000–81,500, the big players' cost zone. Holding this can allow for consolidation and digestion; if broken, the next stop is 77,600.
The entire market is sheltering from the storm; don't stand in the rain and tough it out. Hold 80,000 before considering bottom fishing; if it breaks, exit first. The real risk of a major crash is still ahead, a big collapse is inevitable.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 核心逻辑是 减半与解锁利好落地后，市场在消化“买预期、卖事实”压力。 10月15日 迎来上线以来首次区块奖励减半，单区块奖励从32FIL降至16FIL，日新增流通量大幅下降；同时 Protocol Labs和Filecoin 基金会的六年解锁期结束，每日解锁流入量预计减少约 75%。 随后 10月19日 Solstice 升级上线，奖励机制改为更偏向“真实付费存储”，未赚取奖励会被销毁，网络进一步转向收入驱动模型。 但升级落地后价格并未持续走强，反而从 10月中旬的 1.15—1.27 区域回落，说明短线资金在利好兑现后选择获利了结。 FIL 则更多受自身 供应收缩 + 经济模型改革 + AI存储叙事 驱动。 整体看，FIL 当前属于 供应端改善但价格尚未确认 的阶段。长期看减半和解锁结束降低了抛压，但短期仍需等待价格重新站上 0.99—1.10 才能确认反弹有效。 #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The current Q3 Normalized EPS consensus median for SKHY is between $5.96 and $6.25, with the threshold of $6.25 exactly at the top end of the consensus. However, the actual performance has a high probability of surpassing this level. Citi's latest forecast for Q3 operating profit is **81.3 trillion KRW**, about 8% higher than the market consensus of **75.5 trillion KRW**. Even considering the headwind from the KRW exchange rate, the profit-side outperformance is enough to push the ADR-based EPS over $6.25. The core driver is that HBM4 officially started supplying NVIDIA from Q3, combined with DRAM and NAND prices rising approximately 22% and 15%, respectively. The actual EPS for the previous quarter (Q2) was $8.76, far exceeding the consensus of $5.12, an upside surprise of 71%, indicating that sell-side models remain conservative. Several brokerages have recently raised their target prices, and there is room for upward revision in consensus. The $6.25 threshold is closer to the "base case" rather than the "optimistic case," and the actual probability of strictly exceeding this value is relatively high. 一共22.5万个账户惨遭强平，币安ETH还有一笔1185万U的巨额爆单。细分来看，BTC爆了2.36亿、ETH1.83亿。 就连之前吹胜率超高的巨鲸也栽跟头了，逆势抄底做多，一下子亏掉3990万，账户直接转亏3002万，胜率直接掉到77.7%。再牛的大户，遇上这种单边下行，和普通散户一样扛不住。 绝大多数被爆仓的人思路都一模一样：跌这么多，应该要反弹了。但大家要记住，下跌过程里着急抄底，根本不是见底信号，只是给行情准备好下一批要清算的筹码，抄底的坑真的太多了。 #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $IRYS Short-Term Capital Inflows Can’t Reverse the Mid-Term Outflow — Staying Bearish Today. 📉 $BTC recorded a $4.54 million net spot inflow and a $281 million net contract inflow over the past four hours. However, the 24-hour picture remains weak, with spot net outflows of $131 million and contract net outflows of $423 million. Short-term buying activity has returned, but the broader capital flow still points to continued outflows. For now, this rebound alone isn’t enough to confirm a trend reversaSo many followers blindly trust Arthur Hayes, this big dark horse. Ajian thinks that although he says "crypto has to drop first before it can rise," he did indeed transfer out about 8,000 $ETH, 14M $ENA, and $UNI altcoins yesterday. Coupled with the general market decline last night, it really makes him look like a flawless price forecaster. But the on-chain data is clear: from yesterday until now, he sent $28.81M worth of tokens to platforms and withdrew $14.15M USDC. To me, these moves look more like creating a liquidity narrative, exchanging back to USDC through market makers instead of USDT, essentially holding bullets to prepare for the next round of liquidity injection. Moreover, judging from his past liquidation records, he has often sold near the bottom of phases, and this time might be no exception. Ordinary traders can learn from him to wait for catalysts, but it is not recommended to copy his position sizing.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4 can boost profits, but Q3 is not its main stage yet.
SK Hynix's Q3 operating profit is expected to be about 76 trillion to 81 trillion KRW, with an operating margin approaching 78%, marking another record quarter. However, breaking it down, the main drivers supporting Q3 profits are the price increase of general DRAM and long-term contracts for HBM3E. HBM4 shipments fell short of expectations due to Nvidia Rubin chip delays and yield tuning taking time; some capacity was even reverted to general DRAM. HBM4 costs about $560 per chip, over 50% higher than the previous generation, with a very attractive unit price, but the base chip is outsourced to TSMC 12nm, costing 3 to 4 times more than in-house processes, and the yield ramp-up period requires discounts. Therefore, its direct contribution to Q3 profits is limited; the real significant revenue contribution will be seen in Q4.
To put it simply: SK Hynix now is like a race car with an engine swap—the old engine (general DRAM) is still roaring, the new engine (HBM4) has started but hasn't shifted into high gear; meanwhile, in the rearview mirror, Samsung's HBM market share has caught up from 21% to 33%, and yields have climbed to 80%. $SKHYNIX
Do you think HBM4 is SK Hynix's accelerator for Q4, or has Samsung nearly leveled the starting line? Let's discuss in the comments.The pullback across major crypto assets looks less like a broad risk-off wave and more like a targeted flush of crowded long positioning. $BTC is trading near 80,700, down 1.5% over 24 hours, with its eight-hour funding rate still positive and long accounts making up 69% of the book. That combination matters: buyers are still paying to hold leverage, even as liquidations over the period have fallen mainly on the long side, estimated at $70-95 million. $ETH shows the same imbalance with a sharper#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
"Google Cloud Surges 80%, When Will the Trillion-Level Computing Power Break Even?"
In Google's latest quarterly earnings report, its cloud business soared by over 80%, and the whole Silicon Valley is discussing whether generative AI has truly made the cash flow work.
On the surface, it looks like major companies are scrambling to rent computing power and buy model API contracts, but in reality, Google's capital expenditure in a single quarter has long exceeded $10 billion, all invested in data centers and chip depreciation.
During the computing power dividend period, everyone buys without counting costs, but once these servers enter the five-year depreciation cycle, the real accounting books are just opening their first page. $BTC An ETH whale was almost liquidated over the weekend but survived by adding margin. However, the real focus should be on those who bought ETFs but have to wait until Monday to hit the redemption button.
Over the thin weekend market, BTC briefly dropped below 80,000, hitting a low of 79,277, but the price then recovered to around 80,800. What's really interesting is: Peter Schiff said the next support is 75,000, but he missed one point — ETF holders can't sell over the weekend, so the most panicked group is essentially tied up.
$BTC around 80,800. This week, ETFs still saw a net inflow of 301 million, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows, but Thursday alone saw an outflow of 636 million, and Friday another 138 million, giving back more than 70% of the inflows from the first three days.
$ETH around 2,340–2,365. October ETF cumulative outflows reached about 1 billion, marking four consecutive weeks of negative flows, one of the worst months this year. But BitMine has hoarded nearly 5% of total supply, with staking volume hitting a record high.
$SOL around 102–104. After the Alpenglow upgrade went live, it actually dropped 5.2%, with ETFs seeing a net outflow of 30.3 million in five days, and on the 22nd, none of the seven products recorded net inflows.
Summary: The macro super week is here, oil prices at 117 dollars, FOMC holding steady with a 90.6% probability, but none of these weekend events are as important as one thing — how money moves between these three coins is far more honest than the index itself.
#SpaceX400亿美元AI融资计划受阻 Right now, many people in the market are shouting: $BTC bottom has been confirmed.
But history tells us that bottoms are often not so easy to judge.
In past cycles, when Bitcoin found its bottom, these signals were usually observed:
Price approaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level
Weekly oversold conditions with bullish divergence
Price touching or breaking below the 200-week moving average
Massive long liquidations, market sentiment completely cooling off
Currently, these conditions have not all been met.
I worry about another possibility: BTC first rebounds to $92,000–$100,000, then forms a lower high, and starts to decline again.
If this structure holds, the $48,000–$39,000 range might become an area worth watching.
However, this is just a risk scenario, not a certainty.
The current weekly and monthly trends still lean bullish, and actual price confirmation is needed going forward.
Don’t ignore another possibility just because everyone is bullish.
Trading plans should accommodate different scenarios. $HYPE has been feeling a bit suppressed these past couple of days 👇
Looking clearly at the daily chart: after touching 82.5 on 10-21, the highs have been pushed down continuously, from 82.3 → 78.9 → 78.8, and yesterday even dipped to 74.42. On the broader market side, BTC is still hovering around 80,000, and altcoins generally lack support.
Today it rebounded to around 76.8, but the three consecutive hourly candles this morning (76.83, 76.87, 76.86) were all pushed back here, and just now it has fallen back to 75.9. The funding rate is still slightly positive (about 0.004%), so the bulls haven't been fully shaken out, which makes me lean more towards shorting on the rebound.
My plan:
Direction: Short
Entry: Place staggered orders on the pullback between 76.7–76.9
Stop loss: 77.55 (if it breaks above yesterday noon's 77.4–77.5 area, admit the mistake)
Target 1: 75.2 (platform bottom from yesterday evening)
Target 2: 74.45 (near yesterday's lowest point)
If volume surges and it firmly holds above 77.5, it means this is a real reversal, and I won't short anymore; I'll wait for a pullback to consider going long. When it reaches Target 1, I'll reduce half my position and move the stop loss to break even.
What do you think? Is HYPE forming a bottom here or is there another drop coming? Let's discuss in the comments 🤔
#HYPE #ContractStrategy #Altcoins
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR Actually, not every pump by a whale coin can attract OI desperately.
This coin fluctuated up and down by 20% within a few minutes but surprisingly didn't trigger much liquidation.
First pumped up then dumped down, with such big volatility, the liquidation volume is just this little.
Not sure if no one is playing, or if the players all have huge, huge margin so they don't get liquidated. #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Summary: The main profit driver in Q3 was not HBM4, but rather the long-term contract for HBM3E plus the price increase of server DRAM; HBM4 is more about valuation and growth logic after Q4, with limited contribution this quarter, making it the biggest variable to watch in the earnings reportLooking at BTC over the weekend, the easiest mistake is to take the spot market's immediate fluctuations as a basis for conclusions about ETF funds.
BTC trades 24/7, while US stock ETFs have their own trading and reporting hours. If the price rises on Sunday, you can't directly say institutions have repurchased through ETFs; if the price falls, you can't assume a new round of ETF redemptions is happening.
These two sets of timings must be distinguished first.
In recent days, funds have flowed in and out repeatedly, pulling sentiment back and forth several times. Watching the same data refresh over the weekend easily creates the illusion that "institutions are making new moves," but what you might actually be seeing is information from previous trading days.
I prefer to use this time to observe how the price behaves without the support of normal US stock trading hours. Spot market support and derivatives position changes are still worth monitoring, but each requires its own data support.
Wait until the US market reopens to see if ETF funds continue the previous trend; only then can the judgment be more complete.
I have expectations for the buying side to stabilize, but I don't want to impose my preferred explanations on the price every few hours. Especially with the interest rate decision next week, a little weekend volatility can easily be prematurely labeled as a policy-driven market.
What is most needed now might be less jumping to conclusions. Events happening in different markets at different times, forcibly connected into one story, may seem coherent but are not necessarily correct.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $APR token unlock schedule.
The official unlock schedule shows that there is no APR unlock event today, October 25; the most recent unlock occurred on October 23, and the next one will be on January 23, 2027. Most recent unlock (October 23, already occurred) • End of time lock period, releasing the one-year lockup for early investors and the core team. • According to official documents, about 92.8 million APR were released, approximately 33.4% of the circulating supply at that time; according to DefiLlama, about 149.7 million APR ↗ were released, about 54%. The two figures differ significantly due to different statistical scopes (unlock target range / whether linear parts are included); the actual data should be based on the project's official data. Next unlock (January 23, 2027) • Subsequent quarterly unlocks: April, July, October 23 of 2027, and January, April, July, October 23 of 2028, each about 54.34 million APR (approximately 5.4% of the maximum supply).THE INCOME STATEMENT HAS A PLOT TWIST.
Papertrade generated approximately $8.5M in protocol revenue over seven days, according to DefiLlama.
Now examine its TVL:
Oct 11: $102.09M
Oct 24: $33.22M
A 67.5% decline.
Here’s the accounting catch: reported revenue includes liquidity-pool profits distributed to stakers, not merely trading fees.
Impressive revenue and shrinking collateral can coexist. Neither number tells the full story.
#DeFi #DerivativesFirst, consider the worst-case scenario: if this short position faces a continuous price increase, losses will keep expanding, and if the margin is insufficient, it might be forcibly liquidated. I just saw Core Trader 57 open a short on $ETH with 6x leverage, holding 14.1796 coins, with a notional value of about $33,300; before the outcome is clear, I want to assess how much risk he is taking.
My judgment is that 6x leverage does not mean moderate risk; the key is how large the position is relative to the account size. A habit from my risk control experience is to first ask: if this trade goes wrong, can the account withstand it?
⚠️ Roughly calculating by notional value, if ETH rises 5%, this short position would have an unrealized loss of about $1,664, excluding fees. If we simply calculate by 6x leverage, the initial margin is about $5,547, so this adverse move would consume roughly 30% of it. However, without information on account equity, margin mode, and margin calls, we cannot determine the exact liquidation price or judge if this is a heavy position.
My risk control advice for ordinary people is: first convert the maximum tolerable loss per trade into a proportion of account equity, then check if the position size and leverage match, and don't mistake the liquidation price for a stop-loss. For a 6x short like this, how do you usually set your stop-loss per trade? Is it based on coin price fluctuations or on a proportion of account loss?$SUI
The rebound struggles to regain lost ground; what is the growth premium waiting for?
In this morning's spot snapshot, SUI's 24-hour price change was -1.88%, ranging between 0.9117 and 0.9688 USDT.
The price is above the low point but still down over 24 hours, indicating that support is insufficient to complete a full-day recovery. High-growth ecosystems require retention and effective payment; transaction volume driven by incentives does not necessarily translate into economic value.
If usage remains stable after incentives decline, the pullback can be reassessed; if funds retreat with the fading activities, the growth premium should be lowered rather than just waiting for mainstream coins to lead.Spot prices are falling, but contract longs are paying to hold on; SOL rates have turned negative, yet 76% of accounts are still long
Three major coins are exposing the same problem in three different ways: the gap between bottom signals and actual position structures is widening
$BTC fell 3.7%, but the perpetual funding rate remains positive, with open interest rising to $7.72 billion. New positions are entering even as prices drop. Spot is distributing, while contract longs are "paying to hold"—this is not bottom fishing, it's financing hope
$SOL's 8-hour average funding rate has plunged to -0.021%, with $17.3 million long liquidations in 24 hours versus only $1 million short liquidations. Paradoxically, 76.4% of market accounts remain long, but only 48.1% of active trades are long. Position holders are betting on a rebound, but actual executed funds are selling
$XRP's 365-day MVRV has dropped to 0.92, holders are on average about 8% underwater, valuation is near bottom territory. However, exchange reserves are as high as 11.81 billion tokens, worth about $15.7 billion. Cheap valuation and a supply dam coexist, so any rebound must first absorb this supply.
Summary: For BTC, watch when longs stop paying; for SOL, watch when account longs give up; for XRP, watch if exchange reserves decline. Prices can deceive, but funding rates and position structures do not.
Will SOL's 76% long accounts surrender above $100?
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, pull out the data of BTC whales on the exchange from the past few days, and you'll have plenty to analyze.
First, let's talk about the long-short ratio of account numbers. From October 20 to 25, it formed a three-stage pattern of "surge — pullback — rebound." Initially, long accounts crowded in, pushing the ratio close to 0.8, showing a strong bullish stance. But it didn't hold for two days before collapsing, with short accounts flooding in, pushing the ratio back down to around 0.45 — that was when longs and shorts were most conflicted. In the past two days, it quietly climbed back, indicating fresh capital entering to buy the dip, with longs and shorts tugging back and forth around 0.5. Simply put, the whales themselves haven't decided which side to take.
Next, look at the long-short ratio of open interest, which is even more interesting. It surged from 3 to 15 with volatile upward movement — whales were increasing long leverage positions, showing a very determined direction. But after reaching a high, it turned downward, indicating some started reducing positions, taking profits, or even reversing. A drop in open interest ratio often means the momentum behind the surge is fading.
Putting these two together makes it clear: account numbers are rising while open interest is falling — people are entering the market, but positions are being withdrawn. This is a classic "bullish in words, reducing positions in action" scenario, with extreme long-short divergence.
So, BTC has been quite a rollercoaster these days. When the long-short ratio fluctuates wildly, the worst thing is to rush to pick a side; once you enter, you often end up taking the sell-off baton for someone else. $11.69 billion BTC options expiring, I am bearish until Monday
On October 30, about 140,800 BTC options will expire, with a notional value of approximately $11.69 billion.
Currently, about two-thirds are call options. The largest open interest is concentrated at $95,000, while the maximum pain point is at $78,000. These two levels differ by $17,000, and the BTC price is currently near $80,000, closer to the maximum pain point.
A large number of $95,000 call contracts are already far from the current price. As expiration approaches, time value continues to decay. The more concentrated the bets above, the longer the price struggles to rise, increasing pressure on bullish positions.
ETH is also facing a large-scale expiry, with about 323,400 options expiring, having a notional value of approximately $765 million. Currently, call options account for 56.3%, with the maximum pain point at $2,500 and the largest open interest concentrated in $2,600 call options.
Liquidity is low over the weekend, and the market shows a rebound that looks more like a short squeeze cleanup, not signaling the end of the downtrend. Liquidations in the past 24 hours are still dominated by longs, and the overall market structure has not strengthened. I remain bearish.
When liquidity returns on Monday, CME, ETFs, and institutional funds will re-enter the market, and the true direction will be amplified. If BTC fails to reclaim $82,000, selling pressure will increase again, and $80,000 will continue to be under pressure. The key support to watch below is near $78,000. 💻 I usually start by looking at the input: According to Hyperliquid perpetual contract public market data, the current highest absolute funding rate is for $XMR, with a positive rate of 0.0087%/hour, annualized at about 76%, and a 24-hour increase of 4.98%. This means that currently, longs are paying shorts.
My review conclusion: This looks more like a warning about the cost of holding long positions, not a "yield strategy" that can be launched just because of a high annualized rate. When the price rises, holding long positions still requires continuous payment; directional judgment and holding costs need to be calculated separately.
There are two logical pitfalls. The funding rate is a current snapshot, and the annualized figure is just an extrapolation based on the current level; it does not mean it can be continuously collected in the future. For shorts, receiving funding does not necessarily mean overall profit; if the price continues to rise, losses from price differences may outweigh funding income. This is my risk analysis, not a market prediction.
If it were me, I would change the judgment logic to: first see if the funding rate can be sustained, then see if price fluctuations make this cost or income meaningless. Focusing only on 76% is like code passing normal test cases but not yet tested for edge cases.
Please help me review: to judge whether longs are crowded this time, would you prioritize checking changes in open interest or the duration of the funding rate? Are there any loopholes in my logic?$APR can't even last half a day anymore? The previous ones lasted two or three days, you know The crypto market recently experienced a severe shakeout, with BTC briefly dipping below the $80,000 mark, triggering over $800 million in long liquidations across the network; however, after panic subsided, the market quickly rebounded, with the three major mainstream coins collectively entering overbought territory, creating a tug-of-war between technicals and their respective news.
$BTC is quoted at 80,819, with a KDJ J value of 84.3, and clear liquidation resistance at 81,606 above. Peter Schiff publicly turned bearish down to 75,000, but ahead of the Fed's October 28 meeting, market sentiment is cautious, making the 80,000 level a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.
$ETH is quoted at 2,361, with a J value of 88.19, the most overbought. Last night it hit a low of 2,282, just $30 above the liquidation price of a whale holding nearly $400 million in longs; this whale urgently added 9.21 million USDC to push the liquidation price down to 2,181. Another whale holding $214 million in longs also added 5.67 million in margin to avoid liquidation. The whales are firmly defending 2,181, clearly aiming to support in the short term, but resistance is dense between 2,385 and 2,415 above.
$ZEC is quoted at 1,211, with the NU7 upgrade locked for November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. However, on Hyperliquid, among 84 accounts, shorts total 216.3 million while longs only 136.8 million, with shorts accounting for 61%. The Winklevoss brothers' submission of the spot ETF S-1 filing is the core catalyst for the rebound, but the 1,240–1,250 range remains a dense liquidation resistance zone above. 市场消息称，SpaceX计划为购买英伟达芯片筹集约400亿美元融资，但随着AI信用市场波动，融资成本和投资人要求重新谈判，计划推进受到阻力。 这件事的核心不是SpaceX有没有AI故事，而是算力资产能不能覆盖融资成本。AI基础设施投入需要先付出巨额资本开支，收入和现金流却要更晚才能兑现；利率上升或信用利差扩大，项目回报率会被迅速压缩。 SpaceX刚公布的Q3营收146亿美元、同比增长161%，净利润44亿美元，说明业务基本面很强。但强劲业绩不等于任何规模的债务都合理，尤其当融资用途是继续购买快速迭代的芯片时，折旧、利用率和客户合同都会影响回报。 我的判断：融资受阻反而是一次压力测试。若SpaceX能拿出长期客户合同、算力利用率和现金流覆盖证据，融资只是价格问题；若只能依靠高估值和故事，AI资本开支周期就会先逼它降速。 你觉得这400亿美元是算力先发优势，还是AI债务风险的信号？#SpaceX400亿美元AI融资计划受阻 Robinhood预计在10月27日美股盘后披露Q3财报。市场预期营收约14.4亿美元、每股收益约0.558美元，但真正决定股价的，不只是能否达标，而是交易收入和用户活跃能否继续增长。 Robinhood的收入对市场活跃度、加密交易和期权交易都很敏感。行情火热时，交易量和净入金会同时抬升；一旦波动率下降，交易业务增长就可能放缓。 因此要看三个指标：交易量和交易收入、净存款与资产规模、加密收入占比是否继续过度集中。若营收增长来自更广泛的产品使用，质量会更高；若主要依赖单一行情周期，增长的持续性就要打折。 我的判断：Robinhood的故事已经从“用户增长”进入“把用户变成稳定收入”的阶段。财报超预期不够，管理层还要证明增长不完全依赖市场情绪。 你认为HOOD下一阶段靠产品扩张，还是继续靠行情波动？#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ SK海力士将于10月28日披露2026年第三季度业绩。市场把HBM4当成最大看点，但财报要验证的其实是三层变量：DRAM/NAND价格、HBM出货节奏，以及明年产能和订单指引。 HBM4如果仍处于小批量出货，它对本季度利润的贡献可能有限，更多价值体现在客户认证、订单能见度和未来产能。把技术领先直接等同于当季利润爆发，是最容易被市场反杀的地方。 同时，存储股已经交易了很高的AI预期。即使利润超预期，只要指引保守、库存回升或资本开支提前释放，股价仍可能冲高回落。 我的判断：HBM4是增量变量，但还不是唯一答案。10月28日重点看普通存储价格、HBM4放量时间、库存和资本开支指引。 你更关注利润数字，还是HBM4真正变成收入的时间？#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ "Liquidation Night Bill: Bulls Lining Up to Surrender Chips (｡•́︿•̀｡)"
This round of liquidations is like a tilted bill: BTC liquidations hit 240 million U, accounting for 32.42%, with longs at 220 million and shorts at 17.9144 million, roughly 12:1; ETH liquidations at 190 million, 25.95%, with longs at 170 million and shorts at 21.4519 million; SOL liquidations at 31.9266 million, 4.40%, with longs at 29.5054 million and shorts at 2.4212 million. Different volumes, similar posture—chasing highs with leverage, then being stopped out in batches 😵💥.
Shorts barely took any damage; about 390 million in long BTC and ETH chips were cleared. Liquidation is not a full stop, but more like the bell of chip turnover 🔔. But the absorbing side didn’t keep up, selling pressure can’t be digested, the washing machine must keep spinning 🌀🧺. Before the next candlestick, ask yourself: is leverage a ticket, or a bill? (╯︵╰)📉
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 中东供应风险再次进入定价，10月23日布伦特一度接近115.10美元/桶，WTI约101.40美元。市场交易的不是需求突然爆发，而是航运、保险、制裁和库存缓冲的不确定性。 油价上涨的关键传导链是：能源成本上升→通胀预期抬头→降息预期被推迟→美债收益率和美元走强→高估值与风险资产承压。 黄金和BTC的反应不会完全一样。黄金可能受避险买盘支持，但若实际利率同步上升，涨幅会受限；BTC虽然常被当作通胀对冲，却可能先被当作风险资产卖出。 我的判断：短线先看利率，不要只看油价。若供应风险继续扩大，BTC更容易承压；若运输恢复、油价回落，风险资产才有修复空间。 接下来观察布伦特、霍尔木兹运输和美债10年期收益率。你认为黄金会先受益，还是BTC会先承压？#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 周六晚上，$BTC 在 8 万美元下方来回了不到三个小时，然后收了回去。整数关口热闹的是 K 线，真正值得翻的是这一周的几本账。 一、周末那几个小时 Coinbase BTC-USD 小时线（北京时间）：10 月 24 日 22:00 那根最低 79,707 美元；23:00 那根最低 79,107 美元，收在 79,691.25 美元，是当晚 18:00 以来唯一一根收在 8 万下方的小时线；10 月 25 日 00:00 那根最低 79,475 美元，01:00 那根最低刚好 80,000 美元，之后没有再下去。截至今天 10:14，Coinbase 买一价 80,751.84 美元。 币安现货 BTCUSDT 按 UTC 日计，10 月 24 日最低 79,220.74，收 80,888.16，这是 9 月 18 日（当日最低 76,296）以来最低的一个日内低点。 周末美股和美股 ETF 都不开盘，这几个小时的波动发生在没有 ETF 申赎的时段。 二、ETF：前三天流入，后两天流出，一周仍是净流入 Farside 统计的美国现货比特币 ETF 单日净流向（百万美元）：10/19美国现货比特币ETF的资金流正在从“单日大额流出”变成“反复拉锯”。Farside数据显示，10月22日净流出6.356亿美元，10月23日流出收窄至约1.379亿美元（Farside当日仍有一只基金数据待报）。 这说明市场并非没有买盘，而是买盘不再稳定。大额赎回后，资金很快缩小流出规模，通常意味着部分投资者在等待宏观方向，而不是一致性看空。 真正要观察的是三件事：流出是否连续、IBIT和FBTC是否同步流出、BTC价格能否在资金收窄后企稳。单日数据只能说明情绪，连续多日才更接近趋势。 我的判断：现在更像买盘降速，不是买盘消失。若ETF继续净流出且BTC跌破关键支撑，风险会升级；若流出继续收窄，市场可能进入等待利率和美元方向的震荡期。 你认为这是集中兑现，还是更大规模撤资的开始？#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？