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$TSLA Someone organized protests against Musk, but the stock price actually rose
This morning's news, FOX News reported that there are organized protests against Musk in the US. Behind it are three well-known nonprofit organizations: VOCAL-TX, Center for Popular Democracy, People's Action. They previously ran Tesla Takedown, with total revenue of $56.1 million in 2024, so money is not an issue.
Normally, this kind of news should crash the market. But looking at the market: both Tesla and $SPCX are rising.
Why? Because the market clearly distinguishes.
Street protests do not affect earnings reports. How many cars Tesla sells and how many contracts SpaceX signs depend on products and orders, not the number of people holding signs on the street. This is different from the Democrats controlling Congress—that can change rules and hold hearings. The real risk to worry about is regulatory actions after the new Congress takes office in January next year, not today's protest.
So Beichen's judgment: this news is emotional noise, not a trading signal. But one thing to watch: if the protest escalates to boycotting products and affecting sales, then the nature changes. The current information does not show this step yet.
In terms of operation, Tesla at 361, short-term follows the market, do not pay attention to this news. If you really want to act, wait until it falls below 353 to reconsider!
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ CORE experienced a flash dip to 0.0117 in the early morning, a movement more thrilling than a roller coaster!
In the early hours, CORE underwent an extreme flash dip, plunging instantly to around 0.0117, then slightly rebounding. The intense volatility left holders on edge. This rapid plunge was not triggered by sudden negative news; the core reason lies in the market's extremely thin liquidity. The current 24-hour trading volume is just over one million USD, with very shallow order books. Even a relatively small sell order can quickly break through multiple price levels, triggering numerous stop-loss orders and further amplifying the volatility.
Multiple negative factors continue to suppress the market: the trust crisis left by the b14g coin theft incident remains unresolved, the countdown to Bithumb's delisting keeps pressuring the market, and the 81-year token release cycle brings long-term inflationary pressure. Active buying interest in the market is very scarce. Even after the flash dip, the slight rebound is merely a passive technical correction, not a signal of capital entering to establish a bottom.
Many see the deep drop and want to bottom-fish for a rebound, but caution is needed: flash dips in a liquidity-starved environment often indicate a continuation of the downtrend, not the arrival of a bottom. Until compensation plans are implemented, on-chain activity warms up, and trading volume significantly recovers, this roller coaster-like intense volatility is likely to repeat, carrying very high risk. Under the shadowless lamp, before the monitor shows a long straight line, what often drops first is not blood pressure but myocardial perfusion. The ASTS Q3 post-earnings call is not about listening to management recite numbers; it's like an open-chest exploration: the Bluebird satellite is like an artificial valve, the direct terminal connection like collateral circulation, the partner operators like donor vessel anastomoses, commercial revenue is cardiac output, and cash burn is the bleeding rate. The $XCH correlation is not the primary disease but ectopic arrhythmia; the price crash is just premature ventricular contractions on the ECG, the real judgment is whether ASTS's cash flow perfusion pressure and commercialization anastomosis are leaking.
The number of satellites launched is like myocardial thickness—looks good but doesn't equal pumping function; partner signings are like vascular anastomoses, the key is distal perfusion; revenue growth is like stroke volume, which must be viewed alongside bleeding rate. If cash burn outpaces revenue ramp-up, it's like ongoing intraoperative bleeding with insufficient fluid replacement; if cooperation progress remains only at the intention stage, it's like a patent bridge vessel angiogram but no distal blood flow. The call must focus on three things: whether commercial revenue forms stable forward flow, whether partners convert into actual connections, and how many cardiac cycles the cash balance can sustain. The $XCH market correlation is like electrolyte disorder-induced arrhythmia, which cannot be masked by electrical cardioversion; first do a transesophageal echo to check structure, then hemodynamics to assess perfusion, and only then discuss whether the rhythm looks good. My professional judgment: first look at perfusion, then rhythm; if perfusion pressure continues to drop, no matter how beautiful the satellite network is, it's just ventricular tachycardia—there is rhythm, but no cardiac output. #astsq3commercialoutlook The reason $PEPE is currently so strong, besides the ETF expectations, is also due to the Binance hacker incident where a large amount of PEPE was stolen and sold from the mentioned wallet. Binance has not yet fully bought it back from the secondary market, so the short-term buying pressure remains. Once Binance opens PEPE withdrawals, the buying pressure will disappear, and $PEPE is likely to experience a correction 📉Is the US CPI going to stir things up again tomorrow night?
This time it's not just an ordinary data release. On November 6, US nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far exceeding expectations, and the market's bet on a December rate hike once surged close to 80%.
What's more troublesome is oil prices. The Middle East situation is volatile, and energy costs remain high. In September, the US CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, and the market expects it to further increase to 3.9% in October.
In short, what everyone fears is not that inflation hasn't dropped, but that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening.
This kind of scenario is very familiar historically!
In November 2022, CPI dropped to 7.7%, and BTC rose about 6.5% within an hour after the announcement.
In May 2024, inflation cooled down, and BTC rebounded about 2.6% within an hour.
But on October 14 this year, it was a disaster: CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than expected, BTC fell about 1.4% within an hour after the announcement, and US Treasury yields also surged.
So what will happen tomorrow night?
If the data is below expectations, $BTC has a chance to rebound, first watching if 76,000 can be firmly retaken, then considering 78,000.
But if inflation continues to exceed expectations, be cautious at 74,000; if it breaks below and the rebound fails to hold, don't rush to bottom fish.
Also, on Friday there is the US PPI; inflation news is not just a one-time event.
Tomorrow night at 21:30, do you think BTC will counterattack with the CPI, or test the bottom again? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $ONE、$MET、$ZEC 同步小幅回落，但背后持仓逻辑完全不一样，相比表面的价格变动，这种分化更值得留意，距离结算还有一段时间，资金与持仓的分歧，可能催生更大波动。 ONE（$ONE）是空头力量走弱最明显的标的，四小时资金费率深度负值，价格小幅下跌，同时未平仓合约回落，说明不少空头在离场，没有继续加码看空，继续追跌的性价比下降，空头拥挤度有所缓解。 MET（$MET）的情况恰好相反，同样价格小幅下行，未平仓合约却在抬升，空头趁着下跌持续加仓，头寸越来越拥挤。一旦行情反转，集中堆积的空头很容易触发连环清算，是三者里面最脆弱的一个。 ZEC（$ZEC）则呈现另一种失衡，八小时资金费率依旧为正，价格回落、未平仓合约小幅减少，多头在逐步离场，但多头溢价还没有充分消化，短期依旧存在清算压力，只是杠杆水平在悄悄降低。 简单来说，价格下跌不等于就是纯粹的看跌信号。ONE（$ONE）空头撤退削弱下行动能，MET（$MET）新增空头带来挤仓风险，ZEC（$ZEC）残存的多头溢价仍暗藏隐患。后续可以重点观察两个方向：MET（$MET）拥挤空头会不会迎来挤压，或是 ZEC（$ZEC）剩下的多头溢价最终出ETH dropped to 2230, who is selling this time?
ETH fell from 2437 to around 2220, dropping over 7% in 24 hours, with more than 1 billion liquidated across the network, and bulls accounting for nearly 90%. The trigger was AI regulation panic after the midterm elections; the Nasdaq dropped 5.5%, tech stocks plunged and the impact spread, even BTC's 50-week moving average was briefly breached.
But what really pushed ETH down wasn't the news, it was a leveraged long liquidation. The previous rebound was supported by short covering, with open interest barely increasing; once the direction reversed, the chain liquidation directly smashed the price down.
The ETF didn't help either. The ETH spot ETF has seen outflows for six consecutive weeks, with a net outflow of 365 million in a single week, totaling about 2 billion withdrawn since late September.
On-chain tells a different story: 45.2 million tokens staked, accounting for over 30% of circulation; 1.37 million queued to enter with a 24-day wait, while 13,000 tokens exit within a day. ETFs take money and leave, while on-chain locks the coins; two groups telling two different stories.
So, can you buy the dip? 2219 is the 0.618 retracement level, 2200 is a psychological barrier; holding these levels offers some breathing room. The key to a rebound lies between 2315 and 2350, where previous attempts stalled. If 2134 breaks again, over 600 million in long liquidations await.
I'm not guessing the bottom at this point. Either wait for a recovery above 2350 or wait to see if it really drops near 2134; reaching out in between might just catch the next liquidation line.
Just my personal random thoughts, not investment advice. $PONS Overall bearish trend, continue holding. The only regret is buying too little.
OKX Long-Short Ratio:
Retail Long-Short Ratio: 1.71 (bullish). Bullish sentiment remains crowded.
Whale Count Long-Short Ratio: 1.03 (neutral).
Whale Position Long-Short Ratio: 0.84 (bearish)! Main force tendency: neutral.
Conclusion: This is the most classic "false neutral" bull trap structure on the market. The count of 1.03 is a facade; the real capital positions directly dropped to 0.84 (below 1, short funds are nearly 1.2 times the longs).
Buyback budget plummeted from 18.7 million to 2 million (a 90% decrease), fee income collapsed by 87.8%, buyback "fuel" is almost exhausted, a giant whale liquidated $3.67 million, and DeFi researchers publicly warn of bottom-fishing risks.
$BTC $ETH #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ CORE has dropped below 0.012. Are you cutting losses or buying the dip?
One-sentence view: Heavy buying at the bottom is not recommended, nor is mindless instant cutting of losses. Prioritize reducing positions on rebounds and wait and see.
The current core pain points have not eased at all: the trust gap left by the b14g coin theft, the countdown to Bithumb delisting, persistent inflation lasting 81 years, extremely thin market liquidity where tens of thousands of dollars in orders can cause sharp spikes. Daily trading volume is only a little over one million, with seriously insufficient buying power, making it easy to fall into a negative cycle of "the more it falls, the more is sold."
👉 For those with no positions: Don't try to catch a falling knife on the left side.
The price looks low now, but it is a "low price under liquidity exhaustion," not the bottom. To enter safely, at least observe: price stabilizing above the 0.0128 resistance level, a clear rebound in trading volume, and substantial positive fundamentals. Consider entering only when all three signals appear.
👉 For those already holding positions: Two approaches
1. Heavy positions, can't withstand volatility: Don't panic sell at the lowest point during deep drops. You can reduce positions in batches during short-term small rebounds to lower risk exposure;
2. Very small positions for trial and error: Set strict stop-loss. Exit immediately if it falls below the previous low of 0.0117. Avoid long-term speculation.
Many are tempted by "it has fallen a lot," but a big drop ≠ the bottom. As long as the trust crisis and liquidity shrinkage—the two core contradictions—are unresolved, new lows can be made at any time.This is the key reason why ETH's decline is deeper than BTC's.
After hackers steal large amounts of assets, stablecoins (USDT/USDC) can be urgently frozen by the issuers, but ETH cannot be frozen. Therefore, hackers prioritize converting stablecoins into ETH and gradually selling them off on decentralized exchanges (DEX), creating continuous and targeted selling pressure on ETH.
$ETH Additionally, hackers still hold approximately 467,000 to 525,000 ETH (worth over $1 billion), which constitutes a huge potential oversupply, continuously suppressing market sentiment.#Tether旗下XAUT黄金储备增长59%
Data disclosed on November 6 shows that as of the end of September, approximately 25.7 tons of physical gold support XAUT, a 59% increase compared to the end of last year, with the reserve market value hitting a record $3.44 billion. Note, this is different from the 142.8 tons of gold Tether holds as reserves for USDT—which actually decreased by 3.4 tons in Q3. The growth of XAUT is independent and specifically serves the real demand for tokenized gold products.
The driving force comes from macro hedging: central banks continue to buy gold, interest rate expectations fluctuate, and geopolitical risks rise, making capital willing to hold gold at low cost through on-chain tokens. XAUT supports 7×24 trading, on-chain transfers, and staking, with a lower threshold than gold ETFs, attracting crypto-native funds and some small overseas institutions.
But boundaries must be clear. The scale of XAUT is still very small compared to the gold ETF market and is insufficient to dominate gold prices in the short term, mostly following actual interest rate fluctuations; redemption, custody, and local regulation remain uncertain. This is a hallmark incremental growth in the RWA sector, not a short-term pump signal. $BTC $ETH $SOL Just saw "Gas pricing separation," and instinctively thought it was news about saving fees, but after reading, I realized I had the wrong focus 😂 After being in the circle for a year, I still tend to translate technical updates as "whether it's cheap to use."
The Ethereum community submitted an early draft of EIP-8488, proposing parallel V2 opcodes charged according to the new standards of EIP-8037 and EIP-8038. The draft stipulates that after network activation, newly deployed contracts can only include V2 opcodes, existing contracts will continue using the old Gas plan, and V2 cross-contract calls must target V2.
My understanding is that this is more like a collaboration problem developers need to reconsider, not a user fee reduction notice. The old contracts retaining the old pricing means no need to change rules together; but who the new contracts call will be version-restricted. If developers want new V2 contracts to call existing old contracts, they will need to consider adaptation solutions, which is my speculation. So I think its impact on how applications compose is more important than "changing the charging standard."
What I haven't figured out yet is: when an application depends on many old contracts, how to arrange migration without making collaboration too complicated. The material also doesn't provide fee changes, so it can't be directly concluded that Gas is cheaper. What I want to look at next are specific call cases, to first understand the restrictions, then judge how the experience will change. ETH is down 4.71% in 24 hours versus BTC's 1.28% decline. That gap suggests risk is being shed more aggressively outside BTC, a pattern worth watching if macro headlines prolong it. With IranBlockadeExpands trending, the concern is a broader liquidity premium, though one session cannot confirm a regime shift.
Not financial advice.Don't directly apply Anthropic's financing valuation to TAO or FET
The IPO valuation is the company's equity pricing, while the token price is influenced by liquidity, supply and demand, and tokenomics; they cannot be simply equated.
$TAO is about $222.44, down 1.17% in 24 hours; 24-hour trading volume is about $40.7 million. Trading activity is decent, but the price is still falling, indicating that attention does not equal buying dominance.
$FET is currently around $0.144, down 2.06% in 24 hours; more noteworthy is the 24-hour trading volume of about $2.03 million. The trading scale is significantly smaller than mainstream AI tokens, so liquidity and slippage risks deserve more attention; don't just look at thematic labels.
TAO is about $222, down about 1.17% in 24 hours; FET is about $0.144, down about 2.06%, both need their own demand evidence.
What really matters to compare is the position in the industry chain, not dividing the company valuation by the number of tokens. Do you think this is the most common mistake the market makes?
#Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #MarketOverview $ETH $412 million liquidated in 24 hours!! #BrotherMaji Huang Licheng suffers another crushing defeat.
Last Friday's nonfarm payroll data far exceeded expectations, triggering a sharp plunge. Normally, the market would likely rebound over the weekend to repair the drop, but unexpectedly, after two days of sideways movement, there was another sharp drop of nearly 8% around 5 a.m. Monday. Clearly, the long-term bulls, including Brother Huang, were liquidated again.
The market reason is that the 2180-2150 price range concentrated multiple large holders' liquidation trigger points. Besides Huang Licheng, there was a whale holding 93,174 ETH, worth about $214 million at market price.
On the news front, after the US elections concluded, the Democrats swept both chambers, leading to tighter crypto regulations, continuous withdrawal of institutional funds, and ongoing outflows from spot ETFs.
Geopolitically, negotiations between the US and Iran have not gone smoothly and remain divided. There was an attack reported on a cruise ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Although a temporary easing signal was sent, the situation remains tense.
Before a bull market, multiple shakeouts are common knowledge among old crypto traders. This is not a sign of a market problem but rather overcrowded leverage, concentrated chips, and absence of institutional buying.
In the next article, I will analyze how to view the follow-up.
$BTC
#ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Recently, there's a rather contradictory phenomenon: the better the employment data, the worse it feels for the crypto world.
In the US, October added 165,000 non-farm jobs, while the expectation was only 65,000; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and wages also increased. It all sounds like good news, but the probability of a rate hike in December surged to 80%.
Shouldn't the economy getting better mean prices go up? In the crypto world, this logic often reverses. When the economy is too strong, the Fed refuses to ease, $BTC first stalls, $ETH follows with a shake, and $SOL is an even bigger version.
Don't be happy just because of "strong employment." The real verdict will be the CPI on November 10.Negative news keeps coming one after another, so where is the bottom? The Democrats just took control of Congress, and their first move is aimed at the crypto world!
On November 9, the Democrats sent letters to four entities: Binance, Tether, the WLFI project team, and the issuer of the TRUMP coin, demanding voluntary submission of investigation records by January 4, 2027!
First, the November 6 non-farm payroll report shocked the market: 165,000 new jobs added, more than double the expected 65,000! The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, all exceeding expectations. With data this strong, traders immediately reversed their bets, switching from expecting rate cuts to betting on a rate hike in December.
Today, Blumenauer’s deadly letter directly named Binance, Tether, World Liberty Financial, and the TRUMP coin issuer. The deadline for materials is January 4, 2027; the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, so the deadline is exactly the next day. Once he becomes chair of the investigative committee and gains subpoena power, that day marks the start of the countdown.
$BTC support is at 73,000; if it breaks, look for 70,000. Resistance is in the 78,000–80,000 range; if it can’t hold above that, it will continue to fall.
The real bottom depends on three things: cleaning out long leverage, institutional inflows from ETF approval, and a dovish turn at the December FOMC meeting. The bottom quietly forms when the criticism is at its loudest. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The US added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, while the market had originally expected only 65,000. This single figure completely overturns the narrative of a "cooling labor market" over the past two months.
More crucial than the new additions is the revision: August and September combined were revised up by 84,000. This means the previous weakness was recognized as a misinterpretation. The unemployment rate fell back to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, with employment and wages strengthening simultaneously—this is the least desired combination from an inflation perspective.
The market reaction was very direct: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December was pushed to about 80%. A week ago, rate cuts were being discussed; now rate hikes are on the table. This sharp reversal in expectations can impact the market even more than the data itself.
The mechanism is clear. As rate hike expectations rise, real interest rates follow, putting downward pressure on valuations of cash-flow-negative assets like $BTC; $ETH, due to on-chain leverage and staking structures, is more dependent on liquidity, amplifying volatility; $SOL, a high-beta asset, often acts as a double-edged sword during expectation adjustments.
Wages growing 3.1% year-over-year and an increase of 339,000 in people forced to work part-time indicate surface tightness but underlying looseness, which may prevent the Federal Reserve from maintaining a fully hawkish stance.
The real focus should be on the CPI on November 10. Non-farm payrolls are "possibly still important," but CPI is "ultimately decisive."开永续只看方向和杠杆是不够的。资金费率这笔隐性成本，很多人要到账户少了一截才想起来。 它不是手续费，是持仓的租金。欧易大多数合约每 8 小时结算一次：正费率多头付空头，负费率反过来。只要还持仓就一直在付或收。手续费开平各一次，资金费一天三次，拿三天就是九次。 粗算一下：单次 0.01%，一天 0.03%，一年约 10.9%。方向做对 2%、仓位拿了五天，光资金费就能吃掉 0.15%，再加两次手续费，到手少一截。杠杆越高越明显——它按名义价值算，不按你的保证金算。 三个坑：只看持仓页的未实现盈亏（里面不含已扣的资金费）；在结算前后追着费率开仓；把负费率当免费午餐（那种时候波动往往更大）。 开仓前花十秒看一眼当期费率和下次结算时间。打算拿超过一天，就把它和手续费放同一栏算。 看不见的成本最贵。 以上是个人理解，不构成投资建议。合约有杠杆，亏损可能超过本金。Core Trader 37 opened a long position on $HYPE with 10x leverage, with a nominal position of about $36,100. Many people might directly interpret this as: this wallet is very confident in a bullish outlook.
On the other hand, I don't consider leverage as confidence. First, nominal position does not equal invested principal; second, roughly calculated at 10x, a reverse movement of about 10% could wipe out the initial margin, and the actual risk is also affected by the margin model. I look at the risk first and do not take this trade as a directional signal.🚨 A warning signal: USDT market cap is continuously shrinking, showing a trend somewhat similar to 2018.
A decline in stablecoin market cap means redemptions exceed new issuances, which does not imply funds are moving into buying $BTC.
What’s more notable is that USDC is experiencing a similar situation, indicating this is not an issue with a single issuer.
This suggests the crypto market may be facing liquidity contraction pressure.
Looking back to 2018, when USDT market cap started to decline, Nvidia’s stock price also began to weaken, followed by BTC dropping.
Now, this similarity is appearing again.
Of course, the current stablecoin redemption scale is still much smaller than in 2018, so we cannot simply conclude that history will repeat itself.
But I believe this is a bearish liquidity signal that cannot be ignored. #英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注
$BTC $ETH
NVIDIA's Jensen Huang scandalized by extramarital affair, directly dragging down the crypto market????
Brothers, this is quite interesting! At 5 a.m. today, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang was exposed for an extramarital affair and admitted in an email to being unfaithful to his wife. As soon as this news broke, the U.S. stock pre-market dropped over 2%. You might think this is just a tech industry issue? Wrong! The crypto world immediately took a nosedive.
The reason is simple: AI and cryptocurrencies are now seen as grasshoppers on the same rope, both high-risk assets. When the leader gets into trouble, confidence falters, and funds naturally pull out.
What's even more critical is that Bitcoin has been like a soft target. Since November 8, many big players have been aggressively shorting Bitcoin, with short positions hitting new highs. The market was already primed for a drop. At this moment, Jensen Huang's scandal acted like a divine assist, giving these shorts a perfect excuse to crash the market, triggering a stampede-style sell-off.
So, it's not just a private matter that can tank the market; the key is that the market was already fragile to begin with. BTC holding above 75,000 is just the beginning! The real danger signals have been overlooked by many
The crypto market is experiencing a contraction in risk appetite. On November 6, BTC hit a low of $74,780, with ETH simultaneously approaching $2,200. In the past 24 hours, about $1.05 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with long positions accounting for about 88%, indicating that this round of decline is not only due to spot selling but also concentrated leverage clearing.
More worrisome is the capital side. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $412 million on the same day (some fund data is still incomplete), marking two consecutive days of net outflows. Meanwhile, returns on AI infrastructure investments and expectations of data center regulation triggered a sell-off in tech stocks, causing a clear correlation between the Nasdaq and crypto assets.
ETH faces dual pressure: on November 6, the spot ETH ETF had a net outflow close to $100 million, coupled with the delay in the Glamsterdam upgrade test, putting short-term market confidence under pressure.
My judgment: key levels to watch are $75,000 for BTC and $2,200 for ETH. Holding support only indicates temporary relief in selling pressure; the real reversal signal should be ETF capital inflows, strengthened spot buying, and price reclaiming key resistance. Until the capital returns, rebounds should still be approached with caution. #DailyOrbit $GRAM gram is basically as I said before, sooner or later it will become a $1 stablecoin. I don't have high hopes for a short-term rebound, but the US stock market will most likely rebound tonight, and the crypto market might also see a bounce. gram could probably rebound to around 1.1? But overall, I tend to think it will move in a weak, oscillating pattern afterward.
Currently, gram has fallen more than the overall market. When Bitcoin was at 58,000, gram was at 1.2; now Bitcoin is at 76,000 and gram is only at 1 dollar.
At the same time, there is clearly a crowded long position, and going long with a long-to-short ratio of thousands to one is still quite risky.
On the other hand, this market cap is small, with daily contract leverage liquidity only in the hundreds of thousands to a few million USDT. Despite several days of continuous decline, capital inflow has actually been positive for several days, which also shows firm buying.
Technically, you can say good or bad depending on how you interpret it. If there is no small player manipulating the market, the probability of a rebound is not low. But if there is a market maker entering and seeing such a small market cap with such a high long-to-short ratio, it's hard to say.🔍40x long position, my doubt is: why is the margin for error squeezed so tightly? This $BTC long position from Core Trader 14 has a size of 2.5 coins, with a notional value of about $186,900. Don't rush to conclusions; the position amount is less concerning than the leverage choice.
An interesting detail here: roughly calculated at 40x, a reverse fluctuation of about 2.5% is enough to consume an amount equivalent to the initial margin; this is not the exact liquidation line, as the actual one is affected by the margin mode and maintenance margin requirements. My speculation is: this position is more like a directional bet aiming for quick realization, rather than patiently waiting for the trend, because high leverage makes adverse fluctuations during the wait costly.
I will continue to watch whether it actively reduces the position or adds margin next. Both are bullish views; the former cuts risk, the latter extends the time under pressure. The subsequent actions will be the clues to verify this speculation.Last night, positions of 140,000 people were forcibly liquidated.
In one day, $856 million.
Ninety percent of them were betting on a rise.
Bitcoin dropped to 73,708, Ethereum to 2,100, both the lowest since August.
Many people didn’t lose because of wrong judgment, but because they didn’t have money to cover.
First, let’s clarify what liquidation means.
You borrow money from the platform to bet on a rise; if the price falls past a certain line, the platform doesn’t care if you’re optimistic or not, it sells for you directly.
What it sells is your position, and you lose your principal.
When one person is sold out, the price drops a bit.
As the price drops, the next person gets sold out.
The real pressure isn’t here.
75,700 is the average cost of this recent batch of buyers.
The price has already fallen below that.
People who entered in the past few months are all at a loss now.
Those losing don’t necessarily sell immediately.
But if it falls further, many will sell.
In the same week, U.S. Bitcoin funds withdrew $1.28 billion.
On Friday alone, $410 million.
BlackRock alone withdrew $400 million.
Retail investors are being liquidated, institutions are reducing positions, both happening simultaneously.
There are three more things outside.
On Thursday, the Nasdaq dropped 5.5%.
The midterm election results came out, adding more uncertainty to crypto legislation.
And that $6 billion theft still hasn’t been fully digested.
Four things collided on the same weekend.
Support broke. Institutions left. Buyers didn’t step in. There are still leaks outside.
Not a single piece of good news.
A 10% drop won’t bankrupt people.
Leverage will. $ONDO
Tokenized real-world assets are bringing traditional financial instruments into blockchain environments, and Ondo operates in this developing sector. The opportunity is significant, but so are the challenges surrounding regulation, asset custody, transparency, and accessibility. RWA growth should not automatically be confused with ONDO token demand. Understanding that distinction is essential when evaluating the project's fundamentals.Fear index at 28, could geopolitical news be the last straw?
The crypto fear index is only 28 today, the market is already not optimistic, and external risks tend to amplify volatility.
$BTC is currently around $75,810, down 0.25% in 24 hours; more notably, OI is up 2.0% in 24h, funding rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Contract participation is rising, but the funding rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
$XRP is around $1.16, down 0.13% in 24 hours. OI down 3.6% in 24h, funding rate +0.0054%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). This data seems to remind us: price is near flat but positions are decreasing, the market is still adjusting direction, and a positive funding rate should not be interpreted as confirmed buying pressure.
BTC price is slightly stable with increasing OI; XRP price is relatively strong but OI is declining, so there is currently no consistent sign of risk-hedging buying.
If sentiment continues to worsen, first watch if volume and liquidations expand simultaneously. How much risk do you think the market has already priced in?
#美军扩大对伊朗封锁，霍尔木兹重开仍存分歧 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 78000 and 2300: Prices are holding, but funds are retreating
78000 and 2300 are like two gates being repeatedly tested. Prices stubbornly hold at these two levels, yet funds are withdrawing, which is the most conflicted aspect of the current crypto market.
Looking at the macro picture: the midterm election voting day coincides with the non-farm payroll release, sharply increasing uncertainty; BTC options implied volatility has surged to 43.5%, with large funds busy buying protection.
On the BTC side, there are plenty of bearish factors: Binance hack, ETF net outflows exceeding $600 million in a single day, and cooling rate cut expectations. In the past, these would have triggered a sharp drop, but this time not even a 3% decline was given, the gap remains unfilled, and the resistance level exceeded expectations. However, the rebound momentum is questionable—it looks more like short covering rather than new funds entering. Above, between 78556 and 78836 lies the densest cluster of 100x long positions in the entire market; once the price touches this range, it could trigger a chain sell-off.
ETH barely returned to 2300, but the spot ETF has seen net outflows for more than twenty consecutive trading days, with BlackRock withdrawing $138 million in a single day. Regaining the round number does not equal a trend reversal; 2350–2370 remains a dense resistance zone where previous rebounds failed multiple times.
Ultimately, 78000 and 2300 are psychological stop-loss levels for bulls and bears respectively; whoever loses them first will surrender their chips. Until the direction is clear, whether to chase or not is a test of patience. #DailyOrbit 16.5 million tokens have been sold, but what concerns me more is the cost of this financing: operating funds were secured, yet the selling pace was handed over to the partners. The team claims they did not sell tokens directly, but OTC had no restrictions, and no consensus was reached in communication.
I believe this clarification is still insufficient to improve the risk-reward ratio. My speculation is that this exchange is only worthwhile if the new demand brought by the funds can cover the selling pressure; otherwise, even discussing odds might overestimate expectations. When evaluating Delta, do people value the probability of demand realization more, or the potential return odds?$ETH Morning Analysis
ETH was influenced early this morning by the controversy surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, which became the trigger for the market, causing a wave of liquidity liquidation and the price briefly breaking below 2080. Going forward, pay close attention to this level; if it breaks again, the risk needs to be highly cautioned.
In the short term, observe two key defense levels: whether BTC can hold above 75000 and whether ETH can maintain the 2150 line. In trading, be sure to control position sizes and avoid being aggressive.
This round of decline has already cleared liquidity below, which is a positive signal, but market divergence is still insufficient. True rallies often occur when market sentiment is uniformly pessimistic and everyone wants to short at the slightest pullback; the market is gradually approaching this state now.
Combining this with on-chain data review: historically, four times when short-term holders' costs exceeded long-term holders' costs, a bull market recovery peak emerged about a month later. The current indicator has just completed this crossover, and based on this pattern, I remain optimistic for the next month!Today's centralized exchange fund flow $BTC Alex Thorn, Head of Galaxy Research, stated that after Bitcoin closed above the 50-week moving average for seven consecutive weeks, it closed below that moving average this week. He mentioned that historically, after two similar patterns, there were no new bear market weekly closing lows.
As a quantitative newbie, when I see "two times," I tend to temper my expectations. If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if Bitcoin closes above the 50-week moving average for seven consecutive weeks and then closes below it again, it goes on the watchlist rather than directly concluding the bear market bottom has been reached. 🤖
My judgment is that this information is worth observing but is weak as bullish evidence. Two samples are too few to determine how stable the outcome is; the moving average is an indicator formed after price action, so breaking below it only describes a trend change and cannot alone explain why no new lows follow.
There is also an easily overlooked point in this rule: "no new weekly closing lows" does not mean there were no significant fluctuations during the period. For ordinary users, interpreting a weekly conclusion as short-term safety could be more problematic than misreading the direction. If Bitcoin later closes back above the moving average, I would treat that as a condition for recovery observation, but this is my inference, not a conclusion given by the data.
I will continue to watch whether the weekly close can reclaim the moving average and remind myself: historical similarities can be noted but should not be directly written as definitive answers.$LTC
Litecoin represents a different approach to crypto utility. Rather than competing through complex smart-contract ecosystems, it focuses on relatively simple peer-to-peer payments. Its established network history is an advantage, but competition from stablecoins and newer payment infrastructure creates pressure. Long-term relevance will depend on whether people continue finding practical reasons to use it.【Capital Watch · Stable Funding Rates Do Not Mean Buying Has Returned ( •̀ ω •́ )】
Today, $BTC and $ETH funding rates are overall neutral, with leverage sentiment not running to extremes, which on the surface seems healthy. But Ajian reminds friends: stable funding rates only mean no one is going crazy for now, it does not equal a trend reversal; if spot buying doesn't pick up, prices will still range sideways or look downward for liquidity.
Is the buying really back or not? Looking at ETFs is more direct. $BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, the worst week since the end of June, turning this year's account negative: at the start of the week, net inflow since the beginning of the year was $368 million, but by the weekend it flipped to a net outflow of $914.1 million, showing a clear acceleration of institutional withdrawal. $ETH is even more frustrating, with a net outflow of $365.3 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of outflows, totaling about $2.02 billion over six weeks; BTC's outflow suddenly accelerated, while ETH's bleeding is continuous, the latter being more exhausting.
In summary, it looks more like leverage is cooling down, not a bull market restart. Don't rush, wait for next week's CPI to give direction.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $BTC's price movement has changed in recent years
In the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the price rose faster and faster.
From 2022 until now, $BTC has risen more steadily.
What does this price level mean:
Steady means buying is no longer concentrated in just a few months.
The price going up relies on continuous buyers.
Who is placing orders here:
Most likely those who buy at a fixed rhythm.
They don't watch short-term ups and downs, just place orders according to plan.
Rapid rises rely on sentiment; steady rises rely on process.
The process won't make anyone rich overnight, nor will it make anyone lose everything overnight.
The chart has flattened, and the participants have changed.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
#$BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations, what’s the outlook for BTC and ETH!!!
This time, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000, a typical hawkish data set with falling unemployment and rising wages. After the data release, the probability of a December rate hike rose, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, and liquidity tightening expectations suppressed BTC and ETH.
BTC: Highly correlated with the Nasdaq, it quickly dipped after the data release, with long leverage positions concentratedly liquidated. Spot ETF funds are prone to outflows, support levels breached accelerating selling pressure; BTC has a larger market cap and deeper institutional holdings, so its downside elasticity is less than ETH. Key support to watch is 74,000.
ETH: Has stronger high Beta characteristics, combined with DeFi and derivatives leverage positions, its volatility is significantly greater than BTC. Rising interest rates increase funding costs, DeFi funds contract, bearish for the ETH ecosystem, usually resulting in larger pullbacks. Key support to watch is 2,200.
Market rhythm: The data release is a bearish realization. The first wave is an instant sharp drop killing longs; the second phase is to observe whether U.S. Treasury yields can continue to rise, a rise and fall will bring a short-term weak rebound.
The above is for market review reference only and does not constitute trading advice. There is a BTCUSDT perpetual 100x long position.
Open the position list and check the stop-loss levels of heavy positions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC There’s a change I think is worth mentioning separately: the fees are almost zero now.
A while ago, I talked with everyone about how the bulls were paying rent while falling, stubbornly refusing to give up. Now, the fee for BTC has dropped to 0.001%, and for ETH it’s just 0.0016%, basically nothing. Those holding positions have finally let go.
This is a good thing; the leverage clearing is nearing its end, and most of the forced liquidations have happened. But to be clear, clearing doesn’t mean prices will rise—it just means the pressure is off. For prices to go up, there still need to be real buyers.
Technically, the 4-hour chart is consolidating with low volume between 75,800 and 76,200. The weekend volume is low, so the direction is unclear. I calculated the daily MA200: BTC is at 73,231, ETH at 2,156, both a few points away from current prices. If an extreme scenario happens, that will be the real test. Don’t treat this as inevitable, but keep that line in mind.
There’s also a lot happening next week: the US military expanding its blockade on Iran, which will keep oil prices and inflation uncertain; SoftBank’s earnings report, with heavy investment in OpenAI; plus scrutiny over the CLARITY Act and 401(k) plans. The news won’t be quiet.
My stance is that the end of the clearing phase is a time to start watching closely, but don’t rush to call the bottom. Wait for the first real wave of buying after the clearing—that’s when it really counts.
What do you all think? Is this clearing phase over?
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #DailyOrbit I've always been puzzled by this: Isn't ETH supposed to decrease as more is burned? Why does it keep burning but not rising in price?
Over the weekend, Vitalik himself came out to explain. He said stop viewing ETH as a "fee-burning token" and start seeing it as a "store of value." In 2022, 1.48 million ETH were burned, but so far this year only 19,200 have been burned, a difference of two orders of magnitude.
To put it simply, fees were driven up by insiders during the bull market, and once they left, the fire went out. That NFT rush once burned 180 million in a single day, but now those NFTs sell for $150 each. So don’t use burn volume to calculate valuation; that line has always been illusory.At 8 PM on the weekend, Vitalik put the brakes on the three-year-old popular narrative on X: rather than treating ETH as a "fee-burning token," it should be seen as a "store of value." EIP-1559 should remain, but burning should not be the foundation of valuation.
The data supports his view. About 1.48 million ETH were burned in 2022, worth 3.6 billion USD; so far this year, only about 19,200 ETH have been burned, worth 43 million USD. This is not a halving, but a difference of two orders of magnitude.
The "ultrasound money" algorithm values market cap as annual burn divided by discount rate: burning 1 billion USD annually at a 4% discount rate implies a theoretical floor of 25 billion USD. But he directly challenges this: the bulk of burns from 2021 to 2023 came from internal ecosystem demand and will shrink with the coin price. On the day Otherside burned 180 million USD, those NFTs now trade at about 150 USD each.
He also did a harsh calculation. With ETH's market cap at 273.3 billion USD, if it truly operated on the burn logic, it would need to reinvest about 0.58% of market cap annually into R&D like L'Oréal. The foundation simply couldn't sustain this and would have to allocate 700,000 ETH per year, cutting validator rewards by two-thirds. This is not deflation, but another form of tax.
So what does it rely on? Decentralization, censorship resistance, privacy, security, and the rarest of all: stability. Tokenization of RWA is indeed growing, but it belongs to steady business and cannot replicate the fee surge.An interesting picture right now - regarding the dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC. In short - there are several conflicting signals, BUT they can all play out if the market continues to fall in the coming days and reverses no later than November 18. This would be a new attempt at a reversal after the failed attempt on November 3 (a short rebound instead of a reversal). Signals for further growth in stablecoin dominance: - Since November 5, dominance has held above the 9.65% level, which in our assessment separates the bear and bull markets Looking back at the post from last night, this was actually a sign before the big drop liquidation. Also, with rising fees and crowded longs, how could it rise so heavily without liquidating a batch of positions!Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +1.29%, with the first-level pairing scale about $45; based on a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.45%. The first-level volume is very small, so no matter how good the curve looks, it is difficult to execute trades by volume.
The first-level positive spread for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.41%, with the first-level pairing scale about $2; based on a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.02%. Small orders can probe, but for volume expansion, deeper levels must be considered.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is inverted. Near-month annualized +3.87%, far-month annualized +0.64%, the near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.05%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.32%. Positive mark, negative first-level.When people see massive liquidations, they often think "leverage has been cleaned out, and the market is healthier." This news says that in the past 4 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached $803 million, and among the top ten traded coins on CEX, BTC dropped 1.45%, ETH dropped 4.87%.
On the other hand, I think the emotional impact of this number is big, but its value for judgment is overestimated. One reason is that the data doesn't show the proportion of long vs. short liquidations; just looking at the total amount, we can't even tell which side was squeezed harder, so how can it be directly inferred as bullish?
Another reason is that the liquidation amount is a loss that has already occurred, not a health check report of the remaining leverage. My guess is: if there are still many high-leverage positions, then this liquidation doesn't prove that the risk has been fully released. I would rather see how the open interest changes.
What other data do you think is needed to support the judgment that "leverage has been cleaned out"? I welcome people with opposing views to debate.早上05:55,你刷一下盘面,大饼就从74870扎到73385。二饼更狠,同一分钟从2159扎到2052。你要是看到74000破了才追空,后面大饼又弹到75698。前面那段跌幅你没吃到,后面这2000多点反弹,你准备怎么扛？ 大家好,我是驰川。昨天大饼先探75531,晚上冲到76160,收在76035。二饼从2221弹到2245,收在2241。到了今天凌晨,大饼跌回76000下方,几次反弹都没拿回来。二饼也被压回昨天低点附近。05:55这一脚,两个币把昨天的低点一起踩穿了。 这波急跌,OKX和币安的永续、Coinbase的现货,都在同一分钟下探。OKX那几分钟成交放大,按金额算的合约未平仓规模也在回落。我倾向于把这段看成破位后卖单集中涌出来了。至于第一笔卖盘是谁触发的,目前还没查到能和时间对上的消息。 北京时间10:52,大饼在75258附近,二饼在2148附近。15分钟图上,急跌后的回踩低点在往上抬。但大饼第一波反弹高点75698,二饼的2167,后面都没拿回来。再看1小时和4小时,两边收盘还压在各自的20周期均线下面。现在直接空,下边有人接。直接追多,上边还有反弹高点压着。我今天先Looking at this message, let's first break down the odds: stronger payment demand does not equal the related asset being worth chasing. CoinDesk reports that stablecoin supply has barely grown this year, while payment usage has surged significantly. Circle's latest financial report also reflects a divergence between circulation scale and on-chain activity.
My judgment is that this leans toward a positive for payment applications, not a signal of new funds entering the entire market. Since supply hasn't expanded noticeably, we can't directly infer that more funds are waiting to buy coins; increased payments make me focus more on the scenario where existing stablecoins are repeatedly used, rather than just watching issuance volume.
According to my speculation, if payment growth can convert into sustained revenue and valuations haven't been prematurely priced in, then researching payment infrastructure has potential; if it's only about transaction volume being lively but revenue doesn't stick, no matter how good the story is, the odds may not be favorable. What I'll be watching next is revenue capture, not rushing to treat usage volume as profit. The recently released domestic October PPI data jumped directly to 5.7% year-on-year, even higher than last month's 5%.
Many people's first impression might be that the industry is warming up and companies are about to make big profits, but it's actually not that simple.
This time, the factory prices were forcibly pushed up, mainly not because demand for goods increased, but because upstream raw material and energy costs were sharply raised.
So what exactly should we focus on next?
First, watch whether raw material costs can be passed on to the general public.
Upstream raw materials have risen sharply, but the purchasing power of ordinary people hasn't kept up. Manufacturing companies caught in the middle are suffering the most, with profits being severely squeezed. Whether the price increases can be smoothly passed on to the payers is the key going forward.
Second, see if small and medium-sized enterprises can hold on.
Many small factories may be forced to reduce production or even close if they can't withstand this wave of raw material price hikes. This will lead to many small businesses being eliminated, with all the business taken over by large leading factories.
Third, watch whether the government will step in to regulate.
Prices have been rising continuously, putting pressure on everyone. Next, we need to see if the authorities will intervene to suppress raw material prices and whether companies are blindly hoarding stock.
This high-level growth is hard to sustain for long. If people still don't spend much, the PPI will most likely spike and then turn downward.
In short, it's like watching a thermometer. As long as we focus on whether the manufacturing companies in the middle can make money, we can tell whether the real economy is heating up or cooling down.
DYOR #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
11.9
• Timing: The market is currently focused on the US October CPI and the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting.
• Latest background event: After the October nonfarm payroll report released on November 6 significantly exceeded expectations, market bets on a December rate hike have clearly intensified.
• Manufacturing background: Data from November 2 shows that US manufacturing rebounded in October, but input prices remain high, indicating inflationary pressures have not fully eased.
• Market pricing: Following the strong employment data, the bond market and the dollar are reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue tightening, indicating that this October CPI will have a significant impact and may determine whether this round of expectations is "confirmed" or "cooled down."
Core conclusion
The October CPI is very likely not the sole factor determining "whether to hike rates in December," but it will directly affect market confidence in a December rate hike.
Combined with the currently released strong employment and still high manufacturing prices background, market expectations for a December rate hike have already tilted toward intensification.
Therefore:
• If October CPI remains hot, the December rate hike expectation will most likely be further strengthened, even closer to "a done deal";
• If October CPI drops significantly, the market may reassess and consider that the Federal Reserve might not continue to hike rates in December.This recent drop directly smashed down to 73.33K.
Not only did it complete the K-line pattern, but it also thoroughly broke through the previous low from September 16.
This step is actually very critical.
Below the previous low, there is a large concentration of long stop-loss orders, as well as many defensive positions from bottom-fishing funds. Once broken, stop-losses trigger and leverage liquidations occur, releasing a large amount of sell orders in a short time.
But from another perspective, this also means a round of long deleveraging and liquidity cleansing.
The market is not short of direction; what it lacks most are the conditions for that direction to materialize.
When the unsteady longs are cleared out, leverage is squeezed out, and selling pressure is released, the market may actually become lighter.
What truly deserves attention is not how much it just dropped, but whether the price can quickly reclaim the key level after this decline.
If it can recover, then this break below the previous low could become a classic liquidity hunt.
With a lighter load, conditions will be set to run faster next. $BTC $ETH #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 388张票就能翻盘，真正脆弱的从来不是选票 你有没有发现，市场怕的往往不是坏消息本身，而是"原来规则也能被临时改写"？ 佐治亚州一个众议院选区重新计票，最初民主党候选人领先58票，工作人员核对数据时发现388张票没被正确计入，重算后共和党候选人反超262票。州务卿已介入调查。先别误会，这只是单一选区的计票修正，撼动不了中期选举的整体国会格局。但恰恰是这种"小到不至于改天换地、又大到足够上头条"的细节，最容易在情绪面被放大。 我看这条新闻的第一反应不是站队，而是想到仓位。中期选举刚落地，风险资产还在消化结果，此时冒出选举流程的瑕疵，等于给本就神经紧绷的盘面递了一个新故事。美股上周五纳指有修复动作，但那是资金真心回流，还是超跌后的技术性反抽，今晚开盘才见分晓。我倾向于认为，消息本身对指数的实际冲击有限，真正被交易的是一种不安感：当政治噪音变多，风险偏好会先收缩，再谈方向。 传导到crypto这边，逻辑会更绕一层。BTC最近对宏观政治类消息的敏感度其实不高，它更像在盯自己的节奏和美元端；真正容易先晃的是ETH和山寨，风险预算一收紧，高beta资产先被减仓。若今晚美股高开后走震荡、纳指相对抗跌