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$ETH Ethereum faced a delisting crisis back then; can CORE become the second Ethereum?
First, clarify the facts: In the 2016 The DAO hacker incident, the delisting threat was faced by the application-layer DAO tokens, while the underlying ETH never encountered a delisting crisis on mainstream exchanges. The root of the crisis was solely the The DAO contract vulnerability; Ethereum's underlying consensus remained intact. The hard fork decision involved multi-party negotiations among miners, nodes, and token holders, with the vast majority of hash power and developers choosing the main chain. The ecosystem base was sufficiently diverse, successfully weathering the split storm. In contrast, the nature of Core's current turmoil is completely different: it exposed a consensus-layer vulnerability in the validator reward mechanism, resulting in about 69 million CORE tokens being prematurely released and unrecoverable. South Korea's Bithumb officially announced the delisting of the CORE native token citing underlying mechanism risks. The project subsequently launched a zero-downtime handover with the founding contributors stepping down and block production rights transferred to 31 validators, but the handover mainly covered block production operations. The underlying code iteration and treasury governance still bear core team influence, and the stake weight distribution behind the 31 validator seats lacks transparency. The two are at clearly different stages and ecosystem maturity: when Ethereum faced the fork crisis, it had already gathered global developers continuously deploying applications; although Core emphasizes the BTCFi narrative, its on-chain ecosystem self-circulation capability has not yet fully matured. Ethereum survived primarily because the crisis was resolved through collective decision-making by diverse participants across the entire network; Core's current governance transformation is more of an organizational restructuring after the crisis and has not yet experienced separation from the core team BTC and ETH are about to face policy tests! The U.S. midterm elections correspond to three different market scenarios
With the U.S. midterm elections approaching on November 3, control of Congress may change. The Nasdaq, BTC, and ETH will all face a repricing of policy expectations, but this time the party victory or loss cannot be simply equated with price rises or falls.
I focus on three scenarios:
First, the Democrats take both chambers. Congressional checks on government policy strengthen, regulatory and fiscal policy uncertainty may rise, and short-term risk assets face volatility pressure.
Second, a divided Congress emerges. If Democrats take the House and Republicans hold the Senate, major legislative progress may be blocked, and the market may first digest uncertainty before repricing based on policy impact.
Third, Republicans continue to control both chambers. Expectations for policy continuity increase, risk appetite may be supported, but whether the positive factors can drive the market depends on capital flows and the macro environment.
Morgan Stanley recently expects Democrats to have a better chance of taking the House, while the Senate race is highly competitive. My judgment is: election results may trigger short-term volatility, but what truly determines the midterm trend of BTC and ETH remains Federal Reserve policy, dollar liquidity, and institutional capital flows.
Don't bet on election results; focus on trading the expectation gap. $BTC #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 My BTC long position cost is 77,480, with a 30% position size and a stop loss at 76,200. I will post these three numbers exactly as they are after today's close. Follow me for daily public real-position holdings, opening reasons, and stop loss levels. Whether holding or cutting losses, I write it truthfully; deleting posts means I lose.
There's not much to say about today's market: BTC at 78,013, 24-hour volatility 0.5%, ETH at 2,268 up 0.8%. Making directional trades with this volatility is luck if you profit, and fees if you lose. I'm more focused on another line — SAFU transferred in 7,499 BTC, 90% of stolen assets recovered, and reserve proof addresses updated. These three events basically have zero impact on tonight's price but significantly affect the exchange's credit pricing. The market's discount logic for centralized exchanges over the past two years was "can you let me withdraw smoothly?" Now it’s shifting to "can your reserves be verified by a third party?" This is a slow variable but more valuable than a single bullish candle.
So I don't plan to add to this 30% position. Above 78,000 is a dense trading zone with insufficient volume; a breakout upwards is likely false. Below, from 76,000 to 76,500, there is still an unfilled gap. Let it choose a side on its own; I'll follow after a breakout. Meanwhile, I'll hold spot to earn interest during this grinding period.
At this position, are you holding your 30% waiting for a pullback, or going all in betting on a breakout?
Follow me for daily public real-position holdings and stop loss logic, and I write truthfully even when losing.
#OKXProphet Sunday Night Market Watch: Bulls Are Too Crowded, Be Cautious Overnight
Late Sunday night, the market again shows a "ready to take off" posture, but the review data is not favorable.
🔸$BTC is at 77930, seemingly stable on the 1-hour chart, but the 4-hour long-short ratio is as high as 2.43. Weekend trading is light, but leverage hasn't retreated; bulls are clustered waiting for the Monday overseas market to lift the price; with such a heavy load, the main players may not be willing to lead with real money.
🔸$ETH is at 2266, long-short ratio 2.33, funding rates intermittently turning negative, indicating that bull confidence is unstable and they are even willing to pay costs to exit at any time. Once the market weakens, it’s hard for ETH to lead the rally and it’s more likely to weaken first.
🔸$SOL is at 94.97, long-short ratio 3.45, bulls stubbornly defending around 95. When liquidity is thin, if BTC breaks down, SOL risks dropping to 93 and triggering a chain liquidation.
In short: positions held stubbornly over the weekend often only close at Monday’s open; when direction is unclear, staying out of the market is also a proactive choice. Did you keep your positions tonight? Are you bullish or bearish? Is tomorrow more likely to first lure bulls then crash, or directly plunge?
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #Meta信用展望转负，AI投资信用风险受关注
From the recent market trends, it seems the narrative around $META has shifted from "AI darling" to "heavy asset investment phase."
From the end of Q3, cash and short-term investments dropped to $44 billion, a nearly 40% year-over-year shrinkage. The $70 billion capital expenditure has already consumed over $30 billion of existing cash. If capex increases by another $50 billion next year, there will be a significant gap in the current cash pool.
Additionally, Meta is currently trading at about 15 times the expected EPS for 2027, which is more than one standard deviation below the 10-year average, placing it in the fourth extreme undervaluation range in the past decade.
This means the "relatively cheap" valuation bottom is real, but the premise is that the 2027 EPS (Morgan Stanley benchmark about $36) can be realized.
Is there room for a rebound? First, we can note the midterm elections.
Looking back at the past 23 midterm election years, the S&P 500 rose within three months after early October in 21 of them. Since 1950, the average gain from election day to the end of June the following year is 15.5%.
However, it is important to note that the Federal Reserve acts as a counterbalance. Currently, it is a "hawkish pause," with interest rates maintained at 3.75%-4%.
Yet, futures markets price in over an 80% chance of a rate hike in December; a rate cut is not the baseline scenario. As a high-valuation growth stock, Meta's rebound potential will be compressed under rate hike expectations.
Meta's short-term rebound range may correspond to 17-18 times the 2027 EPS, approximately $615-$650, which is about a 15-20% recovery from 15 times. Note the risks!A reminder to those still blindly shorting: don't rush to hit the button 🧊
$ETH perpetual funding rates have turned negative, shorts are starting to pay, and the shorting crowd is clearly crowded; the whole network's 24-hour forced liquidations have dropped from over 17 billion to around 5 billion, and there has been no stampede of cascading liquidations.
My bias remains bearish, but "bearish" does not mean "chase shorts now." Negative rates combined with liquidation exhaustion often mark the moments with the strongest rebound elasticity — the most comfortable position for shorts is often the easiest to get hit ⚠️.
Experienced players at the table don’t go all-in just because they have good cards; the same goes for bearish views, no need to rush to full position now. Wait for a rebound, wait for the longs to pay for their emotions again, then move more steadily. Waiting empty-handed is not a lack of opinion, but saving bullets for a more comfortable position 😌.
This does not constitute investment advice.BTC and ETH may face directional choices next week! With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, who will become the biggest market variable?
As the November 3 U.S. midterm elections near, market focus is shifting from macro data to control of Congress. The Nasdaq, BTC, and ETH could all be affected by changes in policy expectations, but what truly determines the market trend may not just be which party wins, but the gap between the results and market expectations.
I believe three scenarios deserve close attention:
First, the Democrats win both chambers. Policy differences between Congress and the White House may widen, increasing uncertainty in regulation and fiscal policy, which could pressure risk assets in the short term.
Second, a divided Congress. Policy progress is blocked; the market may initially digest the uncertainty, but if the results meet expectations, a recovery rally could follow after panic subsides.
Third, the Republicans hold both chambers. Expectations for policy continuity strengthen, potentially supporting risk appetite, but whether this translates into a price rally depends on whether funds truly enter the market.
Notably, Reuters reported on October 29 that betting markets have priced in over a 60% chance of the Democrats controlling both chambers, indicating some political expectations may already be priced in.
My view is: do not bet prematurely on the election outcome; instead, watch the Nasdaq trend, the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC spot fund flows. The real trading opportunities may arise after the results are finalized, during the market’s re-pricing of expectations. $BTC #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 This gold rally has also turned from a decade-long bull market into free fall! $XAU
From the weekly chart, gold has dropped from around $5,600 to $3,876, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 30%, even breaking below the weekly bull market support zone!
Looking back at the previous bear market from 2012 to 2016, gold's maximum drawdown was about 45%, lasting over 4 years! And this bull market also lasted nearly 10 years. Will history repeat itself again?黑天鹅冲击后，BTC失守7.8万美元，市场看空情绪升温，但部分巨鲸仍在坚持牛市判断。交易员Jason Leo认为，5.8万美元可能是本轮周期底部，并计划在7.6万—7.8万美元区间重新布局多头，年内目标看向12万美元。 我也倾向于保留中长期看涨观点，但理由并不是盲目跟随巨鲸，而是当前市场结构仍存在几个值得关注的信号。 首先，7.6万—7.8万美元是重要的需求观察区。Glassnode数据显示，活跃市场平均成本约为7.79万美元，短期持有者成本约为7.58万美元，这意味着当前价格已经接近部分持有者的关键成本区域。若能持续守住，可能形成新的承接基础。 其次，市场调整并不等于牛市结构彻底破坏。10月30日美国现货BTC ETF单日净流出约6.43亿美元，资金压力确实存在，但这也意味着后续需要重点观察机构资金是否重新回流。 我的策略是：不急于在支撑区域直接满仓，而是等待价格企稳、成交量改善，再考虑分批布局。若重新站稳7.8万美元，下一步关注8.5万美元附近；若有效突破并站稳更高压力区，12万美元才有进一步讨论的基础。 从7.75万美元到12万美元，涨幅约55%，并不是一个轻松的目标。5.8万美The NYSE parent company ICE is bringing Hyperliquid perpetual contracts into the US. After deleting and reposting the announcement, they deliberately bolded "pending approval."
The key to this drama isn't the cooperation itself; it was officially announced on October 29: ICE exclusively operates, TradeXYZ handles the product, and Hyperliquid provides HIP-3 technology.
The real new information is the November 1 repost: the old post was deleted and reposted with more cautious wording, essentially pouring cold water on the market.
The data also plays along: on the day of the news, HYPE surged up to 15%, today’s current price is about $87.6, with only a 0.15% increase in 24 hours; BTC is around $77,929, ETH about $2,265.
I think this is not a positive breakout but the starting gun for a compliance marathon—until the CFTC gives the green light, the so-called "US perpetual" remains just a prospect.
Wall Street is willing to enter, but regulatory approval is another matter.
Which side are you on: ICE’s entry is the arrival of the regular army, or just another round of the old routine "pump first, approve slowly later"?
$HYPE $BTC
#Hyperliquid #PerpetualContracts#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Apple’s new CEO, Tim Cook's successor, has received the first performance report for the iPhone 18. This time, the strategy is very straightforward, focusing on the high-end Pro models and foldable screens, raising the average product price and prioritizing profit protection.
The initial launch phase looks fairly good in terms of hype, but there are reports from the supply chain about adjustments in orders for some models, causing the market to start doubting whether consumers can continue to accept this high price.
In the short term, the focus is on two things: whether on-device AI can truly stimulate everyone to upgrade their phones, and whether the foldable screen is a genuine hit for early adopters or just a short-term hype wave. These two points are the key tests to see if Tim Cook's successor’s strategy can succeed in the long run.20261101
1. JPMorgan doubts the price stability and is hesitant to buy BTC
1. There is a figure called volatility, which measures how much the price can fluctuate up and down within a day. It is used to calculate risk. Bitcoin's annual volatility is 55%, but currently it is measured at 25.2%, less than half. The quieter it is, the more big money dares to enter.
2. Inside Wall Street, there is a chart that still shows 55%. The higher the risk estimated on the chart, the less is allowed to be bought. In every bear market 📉, BTC falls from its peak. Previously it adjusted by 84%, 77%, and this time 54%, each drop shallower than the last.
3. The bottom is at 60,000, not 40,000, with a group of people holding above. Those who bought between 85,000 and 108,000 have costs around 100,000. They want to sell as a set, so the 100,000 barrier is the hardest to break. Only after this group exits can the price gain strength to rise.
4. In the long term, whether it can surpass 100,000 depends on how volatile it is in a day.
2. American enthusiasm for buying BTC is at a four-year low
1. The last time it was this low was in November 2022, the week of the FTX collapse. BTC bottomed at 15,500, and more than a year later it rose directly to 73,000, so many people are now calling for a bottom.
2. Coinbase premium refers to the price difference between the US and the rest of the world. Americans rush to buy, making it more expensive there. Before Binance opened withdrawals, arbitrageurs couldn't move, and half of this price difference is due to machines not transferring, not because people are afraid to buy, but because machines haven't completed transfers.ETH当前最值得关注的，不只是价格，而是巨鲸之间严重失衡的持仓结构。根据这组ETHUSDT永续合约统计，1036个巨鲸地址中，空头706个，多头330个，名义多空比仅为29.80%。 资金规模差距更加明显：多头持仓约4.27亿美元，平均开仓价2759.90美元；空头持仓约14.3亿美元，平均开仓价2238.41美元。空头资金体量约为多头的3.35倍，但按照当前约2259美元的价格，两边的平均持仓成本都处于不利位置。 这意味着市场并不是简单的空头碾压。空头虽然占据资金优势，但价格若持续反弹，也可能面临回补压力；多头虽然规模较小，一旦关键支撑守住，同样可能引发空头止损。 技术面上，2170美元附近是近期重要支撑，10月30日ETH最低触及约2174美元；上方先关注2290美元压力。若放量突破2290美元，短线结构有望改善；若跌破2170美元，则需警惕进一步下探。 我的判断是：短期更适合观察区间突破，而不是盲目跟随巨鲸做单。巨鲸也会判断失误，仓位管理永远比方向判断更重要。行情没有确认之前，控制杠杆、保留资金，远比押注单边更有价值。$ETH #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 On the third day after Binance's incident, funds began shifting from "safe haven" to "value." $UNI continued to rise 4.4% to $7.31, up 18% for the week. The logic remains the same: DEXs are capturing market share from CEXs, and protocol fees are being introduced into TokenJar for burning.
$AAVE has been repriced in the past two days, with enterprise-grade fixed-rate Stable Vaults launched, adding a B2B narrative. The lending sector rose 7.25% in 24 hours, outperforming the broader market. Ultimately, this rebound is not a blanket rally; money is choosing assets with revenue, products, and buybacks. Although meme coins are also rising, funds clearly prefer assets "with calculable valuations."
$LIT surged 19.5% to $3.26, firmly holding the top spot in gains, with an FDV reaching $3.4 billion. The story of this coin is typical: in November, it plans to formally submit a DCM/DCO license application to the CFTC. Once approved, it will be a compliant on-chain perpetual in the U.S., allowing institutional capital to enter. But on the other hand, it's strict: 50% of the team and investors' tokens are locked until December, then released linearly over three years, with selling pressure written into the contract.从资金流向看，$BTC 现货与合约同步净流入，这种资金共振让走势极为抗跌，说明市场做多资金首选依然是BTC。
$ETH 虽然账面在涨，但现货资金却在流出，主要是合约在单边推高。看截图的15分钟线，高位已经出现滞涨迹象，如果现货流出持续扩大，短线很容易迎来一波急跌洗盘。
$SOL 的资金面偏弱，合约净流出明显，现货承接寥寥。盘面上也是压制在均线下方做弱势整理，短期难有大起色。
相比之下，部分山寨（如ZEC）合约资金在撤，现货有承接，结构上反而比SOL稍微稳固，但抛压未结，不建议盲目追高。
总结一下：BTC底盘稳，ETH需防假突破；SOL继续熬底。接下来关注的重点不是谁涨幅大，而是谁的现货买盘能持续跟上，那才是真金白银的反弹。
以上仅供个人观点，不构成投资建议，数据随行情实时变动，以最新数据为准。
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Double 11 promotion, various coins are on discount, do you accept the promotion?
Prices are rising, but the order book is selling: BTC sell wall pressing down, ETH hacker stolen funds on the way, LIT leads with an 18% increase
$BTC price has pulled back, the sell wall hasn't been cleared
It has gradually recovered from the low point after the Binance hack. But the order book direction is wrong: dense sell orders are stacked above, the rebound relies on short covering rather than active buying. 78,000 to 78,500 is the current battleground between bulls and bears; if the sell wall isn't eaten away, the recovery is just a correction
$ETH hacker's ETH hasn't been sold yet, ETF ran first
Binance perpetual sell orders are 49.15 million, 1.7 million more than buy orders, and spot sell orders are also relatively heavy. More troubling, the FBI confirmed about $6 billion of stolen funds mainly converted to ETH for money laundering, with hundreds of Ethereum addresses flagged; this batch of chips will be sold sooner or later. Coupled with ETF net outflows for 23 consecutive days and $1.61 billion withdrawn in October, 2,283 is the first resistance, 2,214 is the support below
$LIT leads altcoins, but liquidity is a double-edged sword
Up about 18% to $3.19, it is the strongest altcoin on Sunday. Small-cap coins are easily pushed up by small buy orders when liquidity is thin, and the tolerance for chasing highs is much lower than mainstream coins
Summary: For BTC, watch if the sell wall at 78,000 to 78,500 is eaten away; for ETH, focus on the 2,214 support and hacker stolen funds movement; for LIT, see if volume can shrink after expansion without breaking the pullback. What rises is the price, what doesn't rise is the buying volume
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Three days ago, everyone was betting on whether Binance would collapse.
The answer is out: it didn't collapse.
Withdrawals have fully resumed, BTC did not retest the bottom; instead, it climbed back from 76,000 to 78,000. The top ten coins are 100% fully supported, so where is the claim that net losses account for 2% of reserves?
No bank run occurred. The market voted with real money.
But the real story is not about Binance.
The attackers still hold 420,000 ETH and 18,270 BTC, worth about $2.4 billion. 325 million USDT has already been sold at a 10% discount to market makers, exchanged for 122,300 ETH.
They are laundering money, not hoarding coins.
Look at another number: Gate perpetual contract volume was 5.6 billion three days ago, 3.4 billion yesterday, and 1.2 billion today, shrinking by 78%.
No one dares to go long, and no one dares to go short. Everyone is waiting for when that $2.4 billion will be dumped.
The thunder has stopped, but the rain hasn't fallen yet. #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Apple’s new CEO, Tim Cook's successor, has received the first performance report for the iPhone 18. This time, the strategy is very straightforward, focusing on the high-end Pro models and foldable screens, raising the average product price and prioritizing profit protection.
The initial launch phase looks fairly good in terms of hype, but there are reports from the supply chain about adjustments in orders for some models, causing the market to start doubting whether consumers can continue to accept this high price.
In the short term, the focus is on two things: whether on-device AI can truly stimulate everyone to upgrade their phones, and whether the foldable screen is a genuine hit for early adopters or just a short-term hype wave. These two points are the key tests to see if Tim Cook's successor’s strategy can succeed in the long run.#Qatar mediates US-Iran talks, oil prices still supported by conflict risks Seeing this news, I can only say: the Middle East chess game is really full of twists and turns.
Qatar is acting as a peacemaker again, trying to get the US and Iran to sit down and talk. It looks like good news, right? Logically, once negotiations start and the fighting stops, oil prices should drop a bit.
But look at the current market, oil prices are stubbornly high and just won’t fall.
Why? Because everyone knows very well. In the Middle East, while hands are shaken at the negotiation table, there might be bad intentions brewing under the table. The deadlock between the US and Iran has lasted for years; it’s not something a few words from Qatar can resolve. The market simply doesn’t believe they can reach an agreement.
As long as this issue isn’t completely resolved, Iran’s oil fields and the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes will always hang by a thread. Capital fears this "what if" the most. What if talks collapse one day, or some careless missile flies, and crude oil supply suddenly gets cut off? Won’t oil prices skyrocket?
So right now, besides normal supply and demand, the crude oil market is also paying a very expensive "war insurance premium." Who dares to short oil at this critical moment? That’s just asking for trouble.
We ordinary people need to understand one thing: what’s being speculated on in oil now isn’t fundamentals, but emotions and geopolitics.
Once oil prices are firmly supported by this conflict risk and can’t fall, US inflation won’t come down, and the Federal Reserve won’t dare to cut interest rates easily. One thing leads to another, and in the end, we stock and crypto investors have to pay the price.
At times like this, don’t chase the oil price surge.
$BTC Bitcoin is not stuck because the market has run out of things to say. It is stuck because the things that matter are pulling in opposite directions, and none of them has yet won. $BTC continues to chop in a range, and the longer that lasts, the more the eventual move will be decided by positioning rather than narrative. Start with macro. The Federal Reserve's December rate debate remains unresolved, and that ambiguity carries directly into crypto. Real yields and a firm dollar are headwinds for Since Buffett's holdings are public, why does no one follow and buy?
Because whether retail investors or big players,
no one values such returns.
Investment master Harry Browne designed a permanent portfolio.
The rules are ridiculously simple:
Broad J index, gold,
long-term government bonds, currency base J, each buying 1/4.
If any rises to 35%, sell a bit.
If it falls to 15%, buy a bit more.
Always pull back to 4 equal parts.
When the economy is good, stocks charge for you.
When inflation comes, gold bears it for you.
When recession hits, government bonds cover you.
When everything crashes, currency
funds can still buffer you.
Even during the 2008 financial tsunami-level blow,
this portfolio only dropped 2% HYPE surged from around 75 to over 90, and the group chat got lively again. But despite the excitement, I checked the data and found that things aren't that simple.
The 24-hour trading volume skyrocketed by 680%, but breaking it down, the contract trading volume was $13.47 billion, while spot trading was only about $1 billion. What does this mean? This rally is mainly driven by the contract market fighting it out, not real money buying spot. Open interest in contracts surged to $4.02 billion, meaning directional bets are heavily stacked. When prices rise, shorts get squeezed out, helping push the longs; but if the direction reverses, liquidations will cascade.
The direct trigger for this rally is that ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, signed an agreement with Trade[XYZ] to launch a compliant perpetual contract market in the US, using Hyperliquid's infrastructure as the base. Meanwhile, Druckenmiller said he invested in Trade[XYZ], and Musk replied on X with "Interesting."
The key detail is: ICE bought equity in Trade[XYZ], not HYPE tokens. Druckenmiller also invested in the company Trade[XYZ], not HYPE. The price surged sharply those two days because the market was betting that "once the compliance channel opens, Hyperliquid will capture more trading volume." They are betting on expectations, not on facts that have already happened. Continuing to oscillate back and forth in the 77000–78000 range, $BTC $ETH 😄 the fear and greed index has somewhat rebounded
The biggest feature now is that neither bulls nor bears have retreated, but no one can make a decisive call
The bulls refuse to surrender, funding rates remain positive, about +0.0074% to +0.01%, and the proportion of long positions in all market accounts is still close to 73.5%
This means that many leveraged longs were liquidated during the decline, but the weight of the position hasn't lightened much
Overall liquidation volume has significantly contracted from the peak a few days ago, and the market is transitioning from a phase of intense deleveraging to low-volatility competition
The technical structure is very clear: above, the dense trapped positions and moving averages between 78000 and 82000 form layered resistance, making a smooth rebound difficult in the short term; below, 76000–77000 is the near-term long defense line
On the macro level, with the election window approaching and repeated interest rate hike expectations, the liquidity environment is tight
Against the backdrop of positive funding rates, uncleared longs, and unresolved macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait for a volume breakout on either side of 76000 or 78000 before making a directional choice #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 苹果11月2号美股盘后公布财报，我的基准判断是，本季度大概率能够交出一份接近预期，但下一季度的指引未必能让市场满意。这两个判断可以同时成立：苹果仍然有很强的产品竞争力，成本上涨也在实实在在侵蚀利润。 这次对应自然年2026年第三季度，在苹果财报里叫FY2026 Q4。目前市场对营收的预期约为1,130亿至1,136亿美元，EPS约1.98至1.99美元。苹果之前给出的收入增长指引是9%至11%，对应约1,117亿至1,137亿美元。也就是说市场基本已经按照指引上沿做了准备。 单纯完成指引，惊喜不会太大。更值得留意的是，市场预计收入增长约11%，EPS只增长约7%至8%，成本压力已经进入分析师模型。不少人担心，内存涨价会不会让苹果重演英特尔财报后的走势。 先把英特尔的情况说清楚。英特尔刚公布的当季收入和调整后EPS都超预期，主要问题出在下一季度指引。PC需求疲弱、供应限制和现金支出，共同压低了市场对未来盈利的判断。苹果同样可能出现本季业绩合格、下季展望偏弱的组合。但两家公司的成本结构差别很大，苹果有高端产品、服务收入和库存缓冲，英特尔还要承担自有制造体系的压力，不能直接套用。 苹果的毛利#توقعات Palantir Earnings Report: Can High Growth Support the High Valuation?
Palantir Faces a Forecast Test
Markets are awaiting Palantir's results tomorrow, November 2, with revenue growth expected around 84% and earnings around 95%.
But the key question is not whether it will beat expectations, but whether the growth will be enough to justify the high valuation?
The main idea: strong results may not be enough; raising future guidance and continued growth in AI contracts are the keys to the stock's rise. Any disappointment in guidance could open the door to a sharp correction.BTC fell below $78,000, is the bull market logic failing? I am more focused on these three signals
Recently, BTC quickly dropped from around $84,000, hitting a low of $76,300, losing the important psychological support at $78,000. But I believe that a single break below a key support is not enough to directly conclude that this bull market has ended.
From a cycle perspective, I still tend to believe BTC is in a correction phase of a new long-term upward cycle.
$58,000 can be considered a hypothetical reference for the bottom of this cycle, rather than an absolute bottom that has been confirmed. If BTC can stabilize above $78,000 again and gradually break through previous highs, $118,000 will be a medium- to long-term target worth watching. After further space opens, $150,000 can also be included in bull market scenario projections.
But short-term capital conditions still require caution: on October 30, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about $643 million, indicating institutional capital support has not yet recovered.
Next, focus on three signals: whether $76,000–$78,000 can form effective support, whether ETF funds can shift from net outflow to sustained net inflow, and whether price rebounds are accompanied by healthy trading volume.
My view has not changed: do not deny the long-term trend because of one breakdown, nor confirm the bull market restart because of one rebound. What truly matters is the opportunity validated by both capital and price confirming the trend. #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $BTC #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧
The Federal Reserve signals a rate hike, theoretically bearish for BTC. But the market is not simply about whether there is a rate hike; the key is whether this statement will be more hawkish than the market expects.
US Treasury and dollar cash yields rise, BTC itself has no interest, the opportunity cost of holding BTC increases, and funds flow from high-risk assets to risk-free US Treasuries.
If the rate hike expectation has already been priced in, the actual implementation may even lead to a rebound. The macro economy is only one factor; more depends on observing the facts.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 近期美联储鹰派声音明显升温，加密市场的流动性预期也随之承压。值得注意的是，市场正在从此前的降息交易，逐渐转向对进一步紧缩的防范。 10月30日，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆公开表示，进一步收紧货币政策可能很快就有必要。达拉斯联储主席洛根则认为，当前政策利率仍不足以有效抑制通胀，并提出至少再加息两次的观点。虽然官员意见不代表美联储已经形成统一决策，但政策分歧本身就增加了市场的不确定性。 数据更值得警惕：9月美国核心PCE同比上涨3.1%，高于8月的3.0%，距离美联储2%的通胀目标仍有明显差距。与此同时，12月加息25个基点的市场定价在10月31日已升至约69.8%。 风险偏好降温也反映在加密市场。10月24日至30日，BTC周跌幅约5.8%，ETH跌幅约8.5%，说明当前市场对宏观紧缩预期的敏感度正在提高。 我的判断是：短期不宜仅凭超跌就认定反弹行情已经启动。高利率预期会抬升无风险资产的相对吸引力，并压缩高波动资产的估值空间。 接下来重点关注三个信号：美联储官员是否继续强化紧缩立场、核心通胀是否出现实质性回落，以及BTC能否重新站稳关键价格区域。 如果鹰派预期继续升温，而资金流入又无法改善Every time I see "a whale withdrawing hundreds of millions from an exchange," my first reaction is—so what? 2 million $SOL transferred from Binance to a wallet no one knows, worth 190 million USD. The comment section immediately splits into two camps: one says the price will go up because coins leaving the exchange means they’re not planning to sell; the other says the price will drop because the whale is preparing to run. But both sides are actually talking about the same thing—we have no idea who owns that wallet. Moving coins out of the exchange just means transferring them from the counter to a safe; whether they sell or not, only the owner knows. I even researched similar addresses last time, digging through for a long time, and finally found out they just switched custodians.$ETH 405.87% is unrealized profit, but breaking it down into four numbers reveals the bottom of this position.
First: 4.06%. The actual drop. From 2363.78 to 2267.84, a move of 95.94 points, magnified 100 times to 405.87%.
Second: 4.23%. The fallback. The 95.94 points converted back from the current price is 4.23%. It doesn't match the 4.06% because the denominator is different—losses are calculated from the entry price, breakeven from the current price. The deeper the drop, the harder it is to break even.
Third: 1.42 vs 0.79. At 2300 it's 1.42%, at 2250 it's 0.79%. The upper level is a bit farther than the lower target, which is favorable for a short position—but be cautious, 2300 is a recently lost level, and a pullback confirmation could happen anytime.
Fourth: 4.41. This is sensitivity—under 100x leverage, for every 1 point ETH moves, my unrealized profit jumps about 4.41%. Around 2267.84, if it fluctuates 10 points, unrealized profit swings between 361% and 450%. Every twitch you see on the chart is noise, none is a signal.
With these four numbers laid out, the action is set: realize most profits, secure breakeven and push up. Reduce position if it stands back at 2300, only consider 2200 if it breaks 2250 effectively, do nothing in between. $BTC $ZEC OKB rose about 3% in the past 24 hours, outperforming the broader market. The logic behind this is straightforward: Binance suffered a theft of approximately $6.3 billion on October 29, leading to a temporary suspension of withdrawals, causing some funds and users to shift to platforms like OKX for risk avoidance.
On-chain data shows a net outflow from Binance, while deposit activity on exchanges such as OKX has increased.
As OKB is OKX's fee discount and ecosystem token, it often gains a premium when platform funds and trading volume increase.
This is a typical case of "top player encounters issues → competitors benefit in the short term" capital rotation. However, Binance has promised full coverage and is gradually restoring withdrawals, so the rotation effect may be short-lived. Subsequent observation of actual inflow data and overall market sentiment is needed.
(Market observation, not investment advice)
#加密行业协同守护资产安全
$OKB $BTC $BNB Is the $OKB Binance theft the work of North Korean hackers? Currently, it cannot be said that it is "confirmed to be North Korean hackers," only that security agencies and on-chain analysis highly suspect involvement of hacker groups linked to North Korea, and the final responsibility is still under investigation.
1. Regarding the major Binance case in October 2026
On the evening of October 29, Binance's hot wallet was breached, involving about $6.3 billion in assets, with about $3 billion frozen.
Blockchain analysis firm TRM Labs judged the attack to be related to TraderTraitor (a North Korea-linked hacker group, often classified under the Lazarus/APT38 umbrella), and Chainalysis gave a similar assessment.
Attack method: suspected intrusion into an operations engineer's laptop → bypassing approval controls → unauthorized withdrawals, with a self-destruct mechanism used to erase traces.
Binance official stance: the full attack path is still under investigation, no evidence of private key leakage has been found, and no formal naming of "North Korean state background" has been made.
💡 In other words: the direction points to North Korea-linked groups, but this is a "high-confidence attribution," not a final judicial conclusion.
2. Don't mix several incidents together
2019 Binance $41 million theft: phishing + malware, no public attribution to North Korea.
2022 BNB Chain cross-chain bridge vulnerability: about $850 million, a contract vulnerability exploit, not a typical state hacker method.
February 2025 Bybit $1.5 billion case: FBI confirmed Lazarus Group involvement, but that was Bybit, not Binance.
So it is inaccurate to directly apply "Bybit was stolen by North Korea" to "this Binance case" online.
3. Conclusion in one sentence
This Binance incident: strong suspicion of North Korea-linked groups, TRM/Chainalysis have attributed it, but officials are still collecting evidence.
The final determination depends on subsequent FBI and law enforcement announcements and on-chain fund flows (North Korea-linked cases typically use mixers and Southeast Asian intermediaries). #AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook
Market says YES 70¢ / NO 31¢ (69% implied). Real prob is lower.
Consensus $113.4B revenue is already at TOP of Apple's own guidance ($111.7-113.8B). Need to beat their own ceiling.
Add 15% iPhone 18 Pro production cut (Nikkei), memory cost spike, FX -2.5pp.
History: 8 beats in a row, but last beat was saved by tariff refund.
Fair value: YES ~60%, not 70%. NO at 31¢ has edge into Nov 2 print.
I'm long YES 291 but trimming - risk/reward skewed.Nonfarm payroll data is about to ignite the market—will BTC rebound or continue to face pressure?
This Friday (November 6), the U.S. October nonfarm employment report will be the market focus. But one detail deserves caution: weak employment does not necessarily mean the crypto market will rise.
In September, the U.S. added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, clearly signaling a cooling labor market. The market currently expects about 65,000 new jobs in October, but the Federal Reserve still faces the core dilemma of slowing employment alongside inflationary pressure.
My judgment is that this nonfarm report requires close attention to three variables: new jobs, unemployment rate, and wage growth. If employment and wages cool simultaneously, expectations for rate cuts may rise; however, if economic data is weak enough to trigger recession fears, risk assets could face selling pressure.
As of November 1, BTC is around $77,800, ETH about $2,270, both having pulled back roughly 3%–4% over the past week. The short-term rebound is not yet enough to confirm a trend reversal.
What truly matters is not the first candlestick after the data release, but whether U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and coin prices can resonate together. If the data is positive but coin prices do not rise, it may instead signal that funds are taking profits on the news.
After the nonfarm report, first observe how the market prices it before deciding the direction. Do not bet prematurely, and do not simply equate macroeconomic positives with a buy signal. $BTC #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 ETH巨鲸持仓核心数据分析，巨鲸也会犯错，仓位控制放在第一位！！！
ETHUSDT永续巨鲸总览，一共1036个鲸鱼地址，名义多空比率29.80%。
多头330个鲸鱼，持仓426.93M USDT，平均开仓价2759.90，处于浮亏，盈利比例43.03%。
空头706个鲸鱼，持仓1.43B USDT，平均开仓价2238.41，同样浮亏，盈利比例55.38%。
空头巨鲸仓位体量明显更大，现价位置困住两边主力资金，多空博弈僵持，短期联动BTC维持区间震荡洗盘。
ETH支撑位2170，压力位2290，震荡行情为主，做单注意控制仓位！
仅行情复盘参考，不构成任何交易建议#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC Wave 4 downtrend completed! After the rebound, there will be a sharp crash in Wave A2 of Wave 4! Only then will Wave 5's massive surge begin!
Why set it at 79488? Technically, this is a typical break followed by a pullback confirmation. Once the 80,000 mark is broken, 79488 is stuck just below the 80,000 threshold, becoming the first strong resistance line. Bitcoin has been hammered down from a high level, with all moving averages above forming a death cross pressing downward, and volume visibly shrinking. If the bulls really had confidence, they would have reclaimed 80,000 during the pullback already. This kind of volume-less rebound is a classic bull trap. The 76,500 to 76,000 range below is a liquidation danger zone for bulls, and 75,000 is an even deeper chip vacuum zone; once trampled, the plunge will be very fast.
Looking at the macro and news environment, there is simply no room to breathe. The Federal Reserve is stubbornly fighting inflation, with December rate hike expectations still above 70%, and long-term US Treasury yields pressing down. Tech stocks are even worse off; Intel plunged nearly 30%, dragging the Nasdaq down. Institutions are indiscriminately selling high-liquidity assets to cover margin calls. The ETF cost line is high at 81,500, and the current price at 78,000 is surrounded by trapped positions, with no fresh capital to act as a liberating force.
The trading method is simple. Place a short order directly at 79488, with a tight stop loss just above 80,500. If volume surges and price stabilizes above 80,000, it means the short logic fails, so unconditionally admit defeat and exit. The first target is 76,500; if broken, look to 75,000. At 76,500, close most of the position to lock in profits, and use a trailing stop on the remainder to push down $ETH
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 个人认为永续合约进入美国市场落地不改变美股基本面，但会重塑衍生品生态。 短期来看，协议仅为意向，暂不对美股现货造成直接影响，行情炒作集中在HYPE等生态标的，传统衍生品交易所则面临长期分流预期。 若CFTC审批落地，会带来几个关键变化： ✅ 7×24小时交易，周末消息可以提前定价，周一极端跳空大概率减少 ✅ 永续合约对比期权、传统期货、券商融资，没有到期移仓损耗，会抢夺一部分短线杠杆资金 ✅ 跨市场套利增多，现货、CME期货、永续三者价格联动性变强 ⚠️ 风险同样突出：全天候高杠杆交易，极端行情下休市时段就可能爆发连锁强平，放大开盘波动；监管也一定会压低杠杆上限。 本质上这是一次交易工具革新，不是驱动牛熊的基本面利好。利率、企业盈利依旧是美股主线。往后，永续价格与资金费率，会成为休市阶段重要的情绪先行指标。 永续不会替代现货，它更适合短线交易与对冲，价值投资依旧以现货为主。BTC may face a directional choice next week! Employment, inflation, and rate hike expectations, a triple game is about to unfold
The short-term trend of Bitcoin is shifting from a technical battle to a macro liquidity battle. On October 28, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 3.75%–4.00% with a 10-2 vote, with two members supporting an immediate rate hike, indicating growing policy divergence. The December rate decision may become the core of the next market pricing round.
The most important focus next week is the U.S. labor market. On November 3, JOLTS job openings are expected around 7.1 million; on November 4, ADP employment is expected to increase by 65,000; on November 6, nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 65,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-over-month. Pay special attention to wages exceeding expectations; if employment and wages strengthen simultaneously, it will reinforce inflation stickiness and push up rate hike expectations.
My judgment is: strong employment and rising wages may cause the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to rise simultaneously, putting pressure on BTC; cooling employment and falling wages may boost easing expectations and drive a rebound. However, if employment deteriorates sharply, recession trades may also suppress risk assets.
In trading, focus on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the dollar index, BTC spot ETF net flows, and contract positions. Do not blindly bet on direction before data release; waiting for macro signals and capital flow resonance is the key for next week. $BTC #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Today's capital structure is very clear: some people are genuinely buying BTC, while ETH is more driven by contracts.
The latest 24-hour data shows a net inflow of $233 million in BTC contracts and a net inflow of $135 million in spot, with both sides flowing back simultaneously. Compared to purely leveraging to push prices up, this structure is more stable, indicating that current funds still prioritize BTC.
ETH contracts have a net inflow of $45.2979 million, but spot has a net outflow of $38.2692 million. On the surface, it seems funds are entering, but in reality, it mainly comes from the contract side, with spot not synchronously supporting. If prices continue to rise but spot outflows expand, a short-term pullback after a surge is likely.
SOL contracts have a net outflow of $18.5055 million, while spot only has a net inflow of $3.037 million. The small amount of buying is insufficient to reverse the overall weakness, currently resembling a consolidation after deleveraging.
ZEC contracts have a net outflow of $24.1381 million, and spot has a net inflow of $18.8559 million. Funds are actively withdrawing from leverage and shifting to spot, making the structure more supported than SOL, but contract selling pressure has not completely ended.
Overall, BTC remains the foundation, ETH's rebound quality is average; SOL is weak. ZEC has spot support. Going forward, don't just focus on gains; whether spot can sustain inflows will determine how far the rebound can go. #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% Wow, SanDisk's earnings report really splits people.
On the surface, the report is explosive: revenue of $11.03 billion beats expectations, gross margin at 85.1%, an additional $5 billion buyback, plus an announced 1-for-8 stock split—all great news. Yet the stock price plunged with a big bearish candle, dropping 13.47%. Who can you argue with? The real trigger is its Japanese partner Kioxia. Kioxia's next quarter profit guidance is far below expectations and directly warns that the AI-driven flash memory price surge is cooling off. The storage industry now lives by one hard truth—the speed of price increases matters more than how much prices rise. NAND flash average prices rose 70% last quarter but dropped to 25% this quarter, only a third of the previous speed. For stocks priced on an "increasingly steep curve," this alone is enough to cause trouble.
Moreover, SanDisk's stock price has surged about 460% this year, mostly from profit-taking institutions. At this moment, they use the stock split news as a "good news" signal to sell first and run.
Another painful detail: although SanDisk's guidance exceeded the market consensus, it was clearly below the "whisper expectations" of big buyers represented by Goldman Sachs. Big money thinks it's not strong enough and is already heading out.
So don't think a 13% drop is a "golden pit." The price hike story continues, but the steepest part may be over. Jumping in now to bottom-fish might actually lead to more pitfalls below. Hold your hands, watch the show, and don't get yourself caught.
I'm Dage, follow me $BTC #Meta credit outlook turns negative, AI investment credit risk draws attention Altcoins broadly rise, can we directly determine sector resonance?
PARTI leads with a 42.99% increase, many see the top five altcoins all closing in the green and assume collective capital inflow. This consensus overlooks position differentiation; the leading asset's 4-hour position dropped 11.02%, with the rise accompanied by exit actions. 还是延续老话题——黄金能不能买？ 从10月24日开了这个系列话题之后，后续的走势基本跟我的预期一致，周五黄金收盘在3800美元附近，且小时级别并未出现明显的反弹以及止跌信号，意味着抛压还未完全消除 #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 而延续此前我的观点，宏观上高利率压制与5%无风险利率的压制下，黄金很容易被压制与吸血，在11月下旬到12月议息会议宏观压力未解除之前，黄金关键是要守住3950低点，而周五显然快速跌破 盘面来看，宏观压力未解除下跌破新低下方回调概率与风险必然大大增加，目前来看2025年黄金的主升浪快速突破拉升，简单拉了一个斐波那契回撤指标，有效技术面支撑可能会在3500美元附近。 所以，接下来对于黄金需要观察三方面： a，技术面，有效支撑在哪？何时止跌，从小时级别到日线级别，慢慢看 b，宏观面，看11月下旬到12月议息会议前能否有所缓和，加息预期以及加息周期的预期是否减弱，关键要看Brent能否跌回95美元下方，这是宏观核心。 c，短期，周五的黄金抛售是因为美股剧烈波动导致杠杆仓位风险大大增加，不少此前的黄金持有者此时选择套现补充保证金，这也是近1年多次出现的情况[Trump Prepares "Veto Mode" in Advance, Policy Tug-of-War After US Midterm Elections Likely to Be Even Harder to Resolve]
Trump $TRUMP said he might become "Mr. Veto," and the White House has already started studying ways to bypass Congress to push policies: from tariffs on critical minerals and wind power equipment to visa restrictions and federal funding, all involving areas that affect corporate costs and investment expectations. Even if the Democrats control Congress, the White House still retains considerable executive power, and both sides are likely to shift the battleground to executive orders, budget execution, and court litigation.
The election results have actually been partially reflected in market pricing: as of November 1, Polymarket gives the Democrats about a 94.5% chance of taking the House and about 72.5% for the Senate. This is just a prediction market price, not the election result, but it shows that investors are already pricing in changes in congressional power.
For the market, the real trouble is policy reversals: tariffs may change import costs, visa restrictions affect labor supply, and funding rules influence corporate and industry investments. The uncertainty of US policy is indeed increasing; the end of the election does not necessarily mean the risk has landed, but may just be the start of another round of tug-of-war. This semiconductor sell-off really crushed the sentiment to rock bottom😵. SOXL has retraced more than half from its highs, AMD has also dropped over 20%, and the market looks quite scary. Now there's talk about whether there will be a sudden rebound in November; I think it's possible, but don't rush to mistake a "rebound" for a "reversal"🚀.
First, look at interest rates: the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped from 5.29% to 4.94%, which gives growth stocks a breather🌬️. As long as it doesn't climb back above 5%, valuation pressure will ease a bit. The real key is AMD and Nvidia's earnings reports, especially AMD; if data center performance and guidance hold steady, funds will have reason to flow back in📈.
SOXL being halved indicates leveraged positions are being cleared, but the question is, has the selling pressure been fully cleared?⚠️ My judgment is that the probability of a repair rebound in November is not low, but a more comfortable buying point might have to wait until the last batch of panic bottom-fishers are washed out.
Strategically, I'd rather miss the first leg than catch an early dip and get trapped🛡️. As long as US Treasury yields don't break 5% and AMD and NVDA earnings expectations don't collapse, there are still recovery opportunities for semiconductors, but timing is more important than direction.
$SOXL $AMD $NVDA
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 What is the most comfortable state for trading?
It's when you enter the market and immediately know this short position is solid.
Look at ZEC now, current price 1237. Above it is the tightly pressing moving average, the recent resistance at 1245, and strong pressure at 1260.
Shorting at this position has extremely low defense cost.
But looking downwards, once it breaks below the intraday low of 1225, below is a vacuum zone at 1200 or even 1150.
Using minimal risk to chase several times the profit, with this risk-reward ratio, what are you hesitating for?
The fundamentals are even more supportive; the regulatory risk caused by the hacker incident has worsened the funding situation.
With both technical and fundamental factors hitting hard, the area around 1237 now is an excellent entry point.
There is an old Wall Street saying: "Don't try to catch a falling knife; wait until it hits the ground before picking it up."
The bulls' defense line is still collapsing, so don't be lucky trying to bottom-fish.
See the trend clearly, follow the short side with the trend—that's the only way to survive.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 BTC faces a major employment data test next week! December rate hike expectations could become a market turning point
The real risk for Bitcoin next week is not any single Fed speech, but whether U.S. employment data can once again prove economic resilience. Ten members support a pause, two members advocate a rate hike, and policy differences have become public, so the risk of a December rate hike has not been eliminated.
Focus on three key timelines: November 3 JOLTS job openings to observe labor demand; November 4 ADP employment report to preliminarily verify employment strength; November 6 nonfarm payrolls, with the market expecting an increase of 65,000, higher than the previous 29,000, unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings monthly growth expected at 0.3%.
Among these, wage growth is especially critical as it directly relates to inflation stickiness.
My judgment: If both employment and wages exceed expectations, combined with strengthening ISM business conditions, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may rise further, putting BTC under liquidity tightening pressure; if employment cools and wages fall back, the market may reprice easing expectations, driving a rebound in risk assets.
But note, a simple weakening of nonfarm payrolls does not equal a positive outcome; if the unemployment rate rises rapidly, recession concerns will also hurt risk appetite.
In trading, focus on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the dollar index, BTC spot ETF net flows, and changes in contract positions. Be cautious about chasing orders before data release and wait for price and capital to give direction. $BTC #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 My forecast for the new financial report (Q3 2026) performance:
1. Revenue guidance: The company officially provided Q3 revenue guidance of $2.16 billion to $2.164 billion, a year-over-year increase of 83%. Morgan Stanley predicts actual revenue could reach $2.27 billion to $2.29 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate rising to 92%-94%, marking the thirteenth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth.
2. Earnings per share expectation: Wall Street consensus expects EPS of $0.41, a year-over-year increase of 95.2%.
3. Growth drivers: Rapid deployment of the AIP platform on the enterprise side, continuous delivery of government contracts, and expansion of new customer numbers are the main drivers. However, it should be noted that the high upfront implementation costs and the engineer-dependent deployment business model remain market concerns, and breakthroughs in the financial sector are still insufficient.【ZEC Surges Above $1300 Then Pulls Back, Privacy Coin Rally Is Not Over Yet】
$ZEC has climbed back near $1300 over the past week, retreating to $1240–1250 on November 1, and still rising about 4%–5% on the 7th. During the same period, $BTC dropped about 8% in a week, $ETH fell about 15%, with ZEC clearly outperforming the market. On October 29, ZEC briefly surged to $1392 before quickly pulling back, indicating clear profit-taking in the $1300–1400 range.
On October 29, the highest price was $1392 and the lowest dropped to $1213, a single-day decline of about 6.8%, then rebounded to around $1270 on the 30th. The price has now returned to around $1240, and the short-term has not yet reclaimed $1300. Binance ZEC perpetual open interest is about $529 million, basically flat over 24 hours, funding rates near zero or briefly negative, and the long-short account ratio is close to even. Currently, it looks more like a high-level turnover consolidation with no obvious leveraged long positions re-entering.
Around November 5, there is another major positive event: Zcash's NU7 mainnet upgrade, which will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds and adjust the transaction fee mechanism. This will significantly improve the privacy payment experience and add real technical support to this round of privacy coin narrative.ETH led the mainstream coins today at $2,241, up 2.2%, but this "leading" in the monthly chart is an oversold rebound after dropping from $2,700 to $2,200 in October, not a reversal.
The real pressure on the price hasn't eased. ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive days, with $161 million in a single day. BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrew $116 million, with a total outflow exceeding $1 billion in October, marking the harshest single-month withdrawal since 2026. Old wallets that bought in at $50 nine years ago are unlocking staking and depositing coins into Kraken, with exchange ETH reserves accumulating, meaning "more people are able to sell."
But there is also some good news: the staked amount has surged to 43.8 million ETH, accounting for 35.9% of the circulating supply, systematically locking up the available supply; after the hacker incident, Binance replenished 95% of the stolen assets, and the compensation buyback of ETH is a short-term support buy, while the batch of ETH in the hacker's hands that cannot be frozen is very dangerous.
$2,240 is the short-term lifeline, and $2,280 is the first test for recovery. If the ETF does not turn positive for three consecutive days, any rebound can only be classified as an oversold rebound.