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🔷 CryptoX-ray #28: $EDGE −91% from peak, volume 6%
Cap ~$20.5M, FDV ~$75M, circulating 27.4% of supply.
Red flag: team (27.21%) and investors (14.64%) have 12-month cliff and 24-month linear vesting.
Aggregators show buyback and income to holders, but this does not grant payout rights.
Verdict: discounts exist, demand not proven. Waiting for confirmed buybacks. Ready for −30%.
Will discounts hold the price or will vesting crush it? 👇After this Binance hacker incident, there's a number I only noticed today.
Its user protection fund SAFU,
has already spent half of its BTC.
In February this year, the fund had about 15,000 BTC.
Now only about 7,500 remain.
At BTC's current price of around $77,000,
the remaining BTC is worth about $580 million.
In other words:
To handle this $6.3 billion hacker incident, Binance has really started tapping into its “safe.”
What's even more interesting is,
Binance had previously set a rule:
If the SAFU fund's value falls below $800 million due to BTC price drops, it must be replenished.
Now the fund is below $800 million.
But this time it's not because BTC dropped in value,
it's because the money was actually spent.
So next, I'm quite curious about one question:
When exactly will Binance replenish this fund back to around $1 billion?
That says more than just shouting “It's back to normal.”
#BTC #Binance #SAFU #Bitcoin #CryptoCommunity 兄弟们，你们有没有被吓跑不知道，反正我是没被吓跑。
这一波大饼的多单，我还是在死死捏着。
昨晚那一波急跌，$BTC 从 68000 直接砸到 65000 附近，那根针插得极其凶狠，估计不少做多的兄弟都被这根大阴线爆了仓，拍断大腿跑路了。
但我当时就发帖说，这绝对是华尔街主力的暴力洗盘！
现在回头看看1小时K线，一根超级深V反转直接拉回 66800，MA20、MA60稳稳托底，日线多头趋势根本没坏！
而且看一眼数据，ETF资金还在持续净流入，宏观降息预期依然在，大趋势依然向上。
消息面上，比特币生态和Layer2的底层技术还在不断建设。
基本面没坏，技术面洗盘结束，咱们有什么好怕的？
我手里 64800 进的多单，从头拿到尾，现在稳稳吃下 +30% 的利润（带杠杆）。
接下来的策略：死拿多单，准备迎接新高！
防守底线推到 65500，利润锁死。
上方第一目标突破 67500，站稳直接看 70000 大关！
多头反攻的号角已经吹响，拿好你们的筹码，咱们继续飞！
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH $SOL What's going on with the market these days?
Let's set the background first. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.25%, with lithium battery and AI concepts both jumping. The US stock market isn't so lucky; AI return anxiety flared up again, with the Nasdaq down 1.07% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 3%. Tech stocks have been lined up to get hit since 10/30.
Back to the crypto world. $BTC fell 2.23% in 24 hours, currently priced at 76,822, with a 7-day range of 76,260-81,944, basically giving back the gains from the long upper shadow on 10/29. $ETH was more obedient, down 2.58% at 2,249, with a range of 2,171.52-2,391.16.
We need to break down the sentiment here. $BTC funding rate daily average is +0.0095%, latest +0.010%, meaning longs are still paying shorts daily — this isn't a sign of prosperity, it's like a crowd stuck at the door unable to get out. On the position side, it's more straightforward: open interest is 3.63 billion USD, with a net outflow of 116.6M in the latest day, but a cumulative net inflow of 297.1M over ten days. The price dropped from 81,944 to 76,260, yet positions increased by nearly 300 million, indicating that the added positions are shorts, not buyers stepping in.
Two extra uncertainties: the US midterm elections vote is tomorrow, and Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm are releasing earnings reports this week. With risk events piling up, don't overleverage.I've always had a question: On-chain accounts keep shouting "whale transfers into exchanges" every day. Does transferring in mean they want to sell?
Today is the same, 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH moved into Coinbase Prime within an hour, worth 700 million USD, looks scary.
But Coinbase Prime is an institutional custody channel. Money from firms like BlackRock naturally goes through this line; subscriptions, redemptions, and portfolio adjustments all happen inside. Retail investors deposit coins to sell, institutions move funds into custody—who knows.
If they really want to dump, you look at the order book and trades, not just a transfer screenshot.One hour, 700 million USD. BlackRock transferred 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH into Coinbase Prime. As soon as the numbers came out, the first reaction in the group was "They're about to sell." Hold on, this situation needs to be analyzed on two levels.
First, look at the structure. 7,244 BTC equals 558 million USD, 63,600 ETH equals 143 million USD, roughly a four-to-one ratio. This position movement is mainly in $BTC, with $ETH just a small portion. If they were really liquidating, concentrating the heaviest chips into one address doesn't make much sense.
Next, consider the channel. Coinbase Prime is not a retail account; it provides custody, settlement, and subscription/redemption services for institutions. BlackRock's products require buying coins when subscriptions come in and sending coins out when redemptions occur. Changes in ETF shares ultimately reflect as inflows and outflows in the custody address. So a single "transfer in" record could mean preparing to sell or just completing a purchase.
What can verify the direction is not the transfer itself, but the subsequent traces: whether spot net inflows continuously increase, whether there are large orders above the market, and whether funding rates turn positive. Right now, there is only one transfer.
This should be read more as "institutional positions are moving," not "a drop is imminent."
What’s worth pondering is: why is the same transfer more often treated as bearish news than bullish? We are sensitive to "inflows to exchanges" but numb to "outflows from exchanges." This bias itself is a cost.Is the $COIN security incident a trust opportunity for Coinbase or an industry-wide contraction risk? Exchange accidents highlight the importance of compliant custody, potentially granting COIN a relative trust premium; however, security concerns may also reduce user trading and holdings. If institutional custody, subscription services, and market share remain stable, business resilience strengthens. The opposing view is that a market downturn suppresses transaction revenue; if assets and trading volume both shrink, the relative advantage is still inevitably affected by the cycle. Tracking custody assets, net inflows, and non-trading income, the security narrative cannot replace verification of the revenue structure. When further confirming, I will separate market expectations, revenue realization, and cash flow quality; at least two of these must align over multiple subsequent reporting periods before adjusting the medium-term judgment. If there is only a one-time message or single-quarter fluctuation, valuation recovery still needs verification. Good evening everyone, let's talk about the market.
It seems quite a few people are very concerned about the midterm elections.
Well, I think there's no need to be overly worried.
This afternoon, I analyzed the market background of $BTC price movements during every midterm election.
For this year's midterm election, sticking rigidly to old methods seems a bit foolish to me.
Be bold in your positioning; what you need to do is focus on the technicals.
We are still watching the 76000 and 75000 levels; as long as they are not broken, fantasizing about the market is useless.
I've already entered half of my long positions in $MSTR and $PURR.
Today, I continue to add to my Purr position.
Why add more? Because the price is still moving within my bullish logic, and when it dips, it gives an opportunity, so I add more.
Pay less attention to the news; with that time, you'd better improve your technical analysis skills.
Alright, the market is still moving as we expected, so there's not much to explain. Whether it starts with 76 or 75, I think it's okay to add positions.
Note, the range is a bit small; we still need to see a price breakout above the trendline to confirm an upward trend.Nearly 100 million "ghost chips" looming: The real culprit behind CORE's continuous decline is not the market, but a collapse of trust
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, with a 24-hour drop of approximately 11.5%, a 7-day drop of about 29%, a circulating market cap of around $12.48 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $3.09 million, having retraced over 99% from its historical peak. What truly crushed the price is not the market, but nearly 100 million ghost chips. At the end of October, the Bitcoin dual staking protocol b14g was attacked, affecting about 97 million CORE. On November 3, the Core network executed a hard fork, recovering about 68.15 million tokens, approximately 70.2% of the affected amount. However, the recovered tokens have not yet been distributed to affected users, exchange-frozen funds have not been returned, and there is currently no official compensation process. Earlier in September, the Core network urgently hard forked due to a validator reward vulnerability, with the top five exchanges including Coinbase simultaneously suspending deposits and withdrawals. The official approach is to upgrade forward without rolling back the ledger; key data such as the scale of over-issuance and whether tokens have entered the secondary market have not been fully disclosed to date. The two incidents combined directly undermine the BTCFi narrative. The premise of Bitcoin on-chain finance is security and trustworthiness, but with CORE repeatedly experiencing reward vulnerabilities, protocol attacks, hard fork recoveries, and unclear distributions, the market naturally questions: can on-chain assets truly be protected? More troubling is the total supply of 2.1 billion tokens, a circulation rate of about 48%, and mining rewards that decay annually and will be released over 81 years, meaning supply pressure will persist long-term. Today I'm putting my words out there: I've always believed in shorting. Even with the mid-move rebound, I never considered taking profits to buy the dip!
Brothers, look at the current $BTC order book, the big coin has softened again, the current price directly dropped to 77331! This rebound from the bottom is all bark and no bite, it can't even touch the ironclad 78000 level, purely a pump-and-dump trap by the dog whales.
Look at the data, long-short ratio is 65% to 35%, on the order book above from 77332.6 to 77331.1, sell orders are still heavily stacked, with 8.05 units directly placed at 77331.1. The bulls are stubbornly holding on to buy the dip, but above is dense selling pressure, the main funds have no intention to come in and save it. Against the absolute bearish trend, these 65% retail bulls are our best fuel.
Our short position laid out at the high of 78054 is now steadily holding a 2.80% floating profit, with 0.65U already taken. The worst thing in trading is being a fence-sitter; since we've identified the big trend is down, all the deep V reversals and quick bull rebounds are just noise to ignore.
Don't blindly buy the dip, catching longs now is like catching flying knives. Hold the shorts tight, let the profits keep flying, we'll just wait for this bull run to completely collapse and see how deep it can fall!
$ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ But here's the real question: Even if the prediction comes true, can you actually make money from the journey? Trading is never just about predicting a future price. It's about having the courage to make a calculated prediction, building a strategy, and executing it with discipline. The market rewards you when you're right. When you're wrong, your job is to control the damage, protect your capital, and stay in the game. Bold predictions are easy. Managing risk while waiting for them to happen is如果把这轮中期选举只当成新闻看，可能会错过一次风险偏好的重新定价。你注意到没有，市场已经在提前交易"政策组合"了？ 这两天翻数据时有点小感慨：加密行业这次不是站在场外看戏。三个超级PAC往国会选举里砸了约1.7亿美元，这个数字本身比"谁赢谁输"更值得盯，因为它说明行业在用真金白银买立法环境的确定性。众议院435席全部改选，参议院约三分之一换届，权力结构一旦变化，财政、税收、数字资产监管的推进节奏都会跟着变，而节奏才是价格最敏感的变量。 我更在意的是传导路径，不是结果本身。选举→国会控制权→立法预期→风险偏好。这条链条里，市场往往先交易"预期差"，而不是等政策落地。如果结果指向分裂政府，短期可能被解读为政策不确定性上升，波动率抬升，BTC和ETH先承压，山寨更明显，因为它们的估值更依赖叙事和边际资金；但如果分裂意味着激进监管难推进，中期反而可能给加密留出更温和的生存空间，资金会从防守型大盘慢慢试探高beta板块。反过来，若一边倒控制两院，政策推进更顺，但监管方向也可能更明确、更快落地，这种"确定性"对风险资产未必全是好事。 容易被忽略的一点：1.7亿美元的投入已经把"利好立法"部分提前计Stablecoin Market Cap Plummets: On-Exchange Ammo is Decreasing
CryptoQuant data: The total market cap of stablecoins has shrunk continuously from the May peak of about 278 billion, recently accelerating its decline, falling below 262 billion, hitting a new phase low.
Many people only focus on the K-line and ignore this line.
Stablecoin market cap = inventory of on-exchange purchasing power. Its decline means real money is leaving — not rotating from BTC to altcoins, but converting back to fiat and withdrawing from this market.
Looking at BTC again: it has fallen from 85K in October to around 77K. Price drops and ammo decrease simultaneously, a double confirmation of weakness, not a shakeout.
Can the next rebound be trusted? Don’t look at sentiment, just focus on one number:
Total stablecoin market cap stops falling and starts to rise.
If the ammo doesn’t return, any rebound is just an empty shot. Even if the price is still bottoming, ammo returning means real money is re-entering.
Hold your hands, wait for the ammo reserve to be replenished first.
#BTC #Stablecoin Macro Background: This Week is a "Minefield of Events"
The midterm elections on November 3rd are the first variable. The election results directly affect the prospects for advancing crypto regulatory legislation (especially the CLARITY Act), and changes in the congressional landscape will reprice regulatory uncertainty.
The November 6th non-farm payrolls report is the real "switch" this week. Several Federal Reserve officials (including Logan) have clearly stated that at least two more 25bp hikes are expected this year, and the market pricing for a December rate hike remains above 70%. Employment data here presents an asymmetry of "pain either way": strong employment → high rates suppress valuations, weak employment → recession hits risk assets. Before the non-farm payrolls release, the 76K–78K range of oscillation is very likely to continue.
The Fear and Greed Index has fallen from a high level back into the fear zone, and emotional recovery also requires time.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #加密行业协同守护资产安全 $BTC $ETH
BlackRock ETF large transfer of coins into the exchange, withdrawing coins to the exchange at this time, before the US stock market opens?
Could it be that institutions have foreseen a downward trend?
The BlackRock ETF-related address transferred 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH to Coinbase Prime in a short period, with a total value of up to $702.25 million
Such a large-scale asset transfer into the exchange, the next move is hard to predict
Pay attention to the possibility of subsequent fund cash-outs, especially before the US stock market opens
For those who haven't entered long positions, I suggest waiting a bit longer; those holding profits can cash out some first and keep some to continue participating in market fluctuations. Those trapped should pay attention to risk control and stop-loss points
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 When I look at the prediction market for Bitcoin's price fluctuations, I always wonder: when big money comes in, is it changing the odds or the actual outcome? When there are few orders, a large order can skew the odds, but that doesn't mean the event is actually very likely to happen. Unlike directly buying the coin, here there are cutoff times and settlement conditions. Money can push the odds, but it doesn't necessarily move Bitcoin's price. But what if the prediction happens to be the coin price at a certain point in time, and a whale goes to influence the spot market? Can that result still be considered a pure guess?$BTC 各位韭菜们，今天美国中期选举正式投票，摩根大通已经把四种可能结局都算明白了，我给大伙说白话。 第一种，民主党直接拿下参众两院，概率66%，是最可能出现的情况。但这个结局反而不一定涨，标普最多涨0.5%，甚至可能小跌0.25%。民主党全面掌权后，AI行业监管大概率会收紧，数据中心扩张也可能被卡住，科技股短期容易承压。不过也别自己吓自己，真要出台法案，也未必能推翻总统否决，回调反而可能是进场机会。另外财政开支会收紧，美债长端收益率往下走，债券相对走强。还有一点，跟特朗普有资金往来的企业高管，后面可能会面临不少国会调查。 第二种，两党分家，民主党拿众议院，共和党守参议院，概率26%。这种局面基本就是政策僵局，谁也没法随便出大招，市场反而比较稳，标普能涨0.5%到1%。美债收益率同样会往下走，但企业被调查的风险还在。 第三种，共和党守住两院，概率只有7%，但这是对美股最友好的情况。一旦出现，标普大概率拉涨1%到1.25%，科技股也能松口气，因为新增监管压力不大。但坏处是财政支出可能继续放大，美债收益率走高，中东局势也容易再起波澜。 第四种，反向分家，共和党占众议院、民主党占参议院，概#Pratinjau Laporan Keuangan Palantir: Apakah Pertumbuhan Tinggi Bisa Mendukung Penilaian Tinggi apakah ini akan menjadi sejarahTether's CEO said they hold about 150,000 BTC, worth roughly $11.5 billion at current prices. Interestingly, the company's Q3 reserve report only accounts for about 100,000 BTC; the missing 50,000 BTC were not disclosed where or when they were purchased, so this does not equal "newly bought 50,000 BTC".
My view: don't rush to see this as bullish news. When the market is trending down, statements like "we are very rich" are most easily used as emotional comfort. What’s more worth noting is that the excess reserves in the report rose from $4.1 billion to $7.95 billion; this buffer is more concrete than just saying "honest work."
A note for ordinary people: verbal figures from stablecoin issuers and numbers in audit reports should be viewed separately.
#Bitcoin #Stablecoin#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Apple Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, with hardware sales holding steady and the new CEO's first revenue report passing muster. However, the market is focused on risks, as next quarter's gross margin guidance is under pressure, mainly due to rising prices of memory chips, combined with increased Siri AI cloud computing costs, and the near end of low-cost component inventory consumption. Revenue looks good, but profitability is under pressure. Going forward, the key focus will be on product price increases, supply chain cost control capabilities, and the resilience of the services business, which are crucial for valuation.美国中期选举今日正式打响。Kalshi最新数据显示，民主党拿下参议院的概率高达76%，赢得众议院的概率更是达到94%。这个预测若成真，意味着华盛顿的政治格局将发生根本性逆转，而加密行业正站在风暴眼上。 第一，立法通道将被彻底冻结。过去两年共和党主导的国会通过了GENIUS Act，并推动了CLARITY Act在众议院的通过，但后者在参议院因稳定币奖励争议和伦理条款停滞不前。若民主党夺回参议院，Elizabeth Warren将出任银行委员会主席，她手中最锋利的武器就是传票权。Wintermute政策主管预计，她会重点审查OCC对Ripple、Coinbase以及特朗普家族支持的World Financial等新设银行牌照的批准。更关键的是，俄亥俄州选情中，Fairshake PAC已投入3000万美元支持亲加密的共和党人Hustad，若前银行委员会主席Sherrod Brown胜选并转任农业委员会主席，相关加密立法可能被直接搁置。 第二，市场已经提前用脚投票。比特币今日跌穿7.7万美元关口，24小时低见76335美元，以太坊跌至2247美元。这不是恐慌，而是典型的观望性缩量。HTX #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压
Apple's Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, with next quarter's gross margin guidance under pressure
Apple's fourth fiscal quarter revenue reached $114.48 billion, EPS $2.10, both surpassing market expectations. iPhone and Mac revenues outperformed consensus, service revenue was basically in line with expectations; Greater China revenue was $17.54 billion, slightly below market expectations. After-hours stock price initially rose then fell, with core pressure coming from holiday season profit guidance.
The company provided guidance for next quarter revenue growth of 7%-10% year-over-year, but gross margin is expected to be only 45%-46%, down about 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, significantly below market expectations, marking the main negative in this earnings report. Two main drags: first, rising prices of storage chips, with low-cost inventory about to be depleted, leading to increased procurement costs; second, full rollout of Siri AI, with cloud computing power investments continuously eroding profits.
Overall, Apple's hardware consumer base remains solid, with upgrade demand and ecosystem foundation supporting long-term value; however, rising supply chain costs and profit pressure during the AI investment phase will be the core challenges for the upcoming peak season.
$AAPL #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
Voting day begins, BTC drops nearly 2% intraday, market sentiment is cautious, the election is not only a political game but also directly affects the direction of crypto regulation.
The crypto industry has cumulatively invested over $200 million in political donations, playing a key role in pushing regulatory bills like CLARITY. The current market widely expects the Democratic Party to likely take the House of Representatives, while the Senate outcome remains uncertain. If a divided Congress forms, fiscal expansion will be limited, amplifying risk asset expectation gaps.
Historical patterns show that BTC fell 48%, 37%, and 16% respectively before the last three midterm elections, with an average 12-month post-election increase of 53.7%; and the bottoming point gradually approaches the election day (71 days after → 39 days after → 13 days after). However, this time the interest rate hike cycle pressure is superimposed, so historical patterns are only for reference and should not be directly used as trading signals.
Asset impact differentiation: BTC is primarily anchored to fiat credit and macro liquidity, with midterm logic unchanged; ETH is more sensitive to regulatory policies and ETF capital, showing greater volatility elasticity.
Going forward, focus on tracking Federal Reserve policies, ETF capital flows, global liquidity, and post-election regulatory developments. It is recommended to watch more and trade less before implementation, prioritizing position control.
$BTC $ETH Binance had 200,000 Ethereum stolen.
On the same day, the exchange actually had 39,000 more Ethereum.
Because withdrawals were suspended.
Coins could come in, but couldn't go out.
Withdrawals only resumed two days later.
On November 1st and 2nd, 313,000 were withdrawn.
From October 28th to November 2nd,
the exchange's Ethereum decreased by 5.4%, nearly 300,000 coins.
Seeing this number, the first reaction is always: fewer coins, price will rise.
But the price didn't cooperate.
It was still 2800 in October, now 2264.
There are only two possibilities when coins decrease.
Those optimistic are withdrawing coins back to their own wallets.
Those fearful don't want to keep coins on the exchange anymore.
One is bullish, the other is hedging; the data looks exactly the same.
To separate them, just look at one thing:
When coins leave, does the price rise?
This time, the price is falling.
So these 300,000 coins weren't stolen, someone is hiding.
Coins left, but no money came in.
This is not a price surge, it's a relocation.
Is your ETH in the exchange or in your own wallet?
$ETHThe valuation anchor of the “true public chain” has shattered: dissecting CORE’s “structural gradual decline,” why are all rebounds traps?
As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, down approximately 11.5% in 24 hours, down about 29% over 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $12.48 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $3.09 million, having retraced over 99% from its historical peak. It is not simply dragged down by the overall market; rather, its valuation anchors are breaking apart. Valuation anchor one: The BTCFi narrative was pierced by security incidents. After the September validator over-issuance bug, five major exchanges including Coinbase simultaneously suspended deposits and withdrawals; at the end of October, the b14g protocol was attacked, affecting 97 million CORE tokens. On November 3, a network hard fork recovered about 68.15 million tokens, but these have not yet been allocated to affected users, and the exchanges’ frozen funds have not been returned. The core premise of BTCFi is “Bitcoin assets securely on-chain,” and these two vulnerabilities directly undermined this premise. Valuation anchor two: Buyback and burn cannot outpace unlocking. The total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with a circulation rate of about 48%, and mining rewards are released with annual decay over 81 years. Although the 2026 roadmap plans to use BTCFi’s real revenue for buyback and burn, the current protocol revenue scale is too small to offset long-term selling pressure. Valuation anchor three: Liquidity exhaustion.
The trading volume is only about $3.09 million; a large sell order can trigger a liquidation cascade, and rebounds lack supporting buy orders. Valuation anchor four: Governance handover brings uncertainty, as control is transferring from the core team to the community, and the decision-making direction remains unclear ETFs are withdrawing, but whales are accumulating.
In the past 6 trading days, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $859 million. Just BlackRock's IBIT has had outflows for 10 consecutive days totaling $2.24 billion, corresponding to nearly 36,000 BTC redeemed. However, during the same period, on-chain large holders excluding exchanges and mining pools have increased their holdings to about 3.03 million BTC, with the 30-day accumulation rate hitting the fastest since February 2026. The panic index dropped from 37 to 26 in one day, and long positions liquidated $340 million — yet whale addresses continue to accumulate amid the panic.
Why is this worth attention? ETF outflows reflect passive allocation funds reducing positions ahead of macro events, while on-chain accumulation represents mid-to-long-term behavior of self-custodied funds. The opposite directions indicate that BTC's marginal pricing power may be shifting from "paper exposure that can be quickly redeemed" to "spot chips that are not easily moved."
Which observation is currently more supported? The data favors chip rotation rather than pure capital flight. But whales are not unified internally; some are accumulating, while others are swapping BTC for ETH, and combined data masks this strategic split.
Next, focus on one thing: can the whales' 3.03 million BTC absorb the ETF redemption slope? If they can, the structure will change; if not, panic will continue to be priced in. What do you think about this wave of rotation? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH 【On-Chain Trading Update｜HYPE】
Monitored address 0x940a opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $84.85
▪ Transaction amount this time: $637,719.02
▪ Leverage: 10x
Do you think opening a long at this position is early or not?
Note: This address has earned over $64,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +68.48% $MU
Chasing single stock tokens based on 'pre-market gains,' I get it wrong seven out of ten times. Today Micron rose over 4% pre-market, but the token still shows -3.6% over 24 hours.
The 1-hour candle at 8 PM really pulled up. Opened at 850.96, closed at 867.57, volume 11,900 contracts; the previous three hours only had five to six thousand contracts each. Daily low was 831, now at 867.
The fee settlement is stuck at 0. Holding over 43,000 contracts, which translates to 38 million USD.
The pre-market sentiment did come through, but not a penny of leveraged money entered. This product moves with the underlying stock but is much thinner; the underlying stock keeps moving after close, but the moves are just directionless spreads.
I’ve been watching a zero-fee-rate contract for half a day; this is a task I chose myself.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $CORE is probably hard to recover, with a large amount of players' funds trapped, whereabouts unknown, no support or pump, slow or even halted development progress, many node operators withdrawing at a loss, and a large amount of coins concentrated in the hands of a few.
Internal management is not open or transparent, and the coin price is trending downward day by day.$BTC
Breaking news says Bitcoin has broken the "midterm election must fall" pattern this year. I checked the moving averages; 77,357 is still 5.6% above the 200-day moving average of 73,223.
This cushion is worth a look. In previous election cycles, the price would drop three to five points a week before the election to break through that line, but this time it didn't.
There are also intraday details. At 20:00, the 1-hour candle rose from 77,074 to 77,395 with a volume of 385,000 contracts, while the previous few hours hovered around 200,000. After 21:00, volume shrank to 40,000 but the price didn't drop. The daily low was 76,360, now at 77,350, a rebound of 1,000 points. Open interest is 2.611 billion, and the fee rate is still at +0.01%.
I don't think this is a real strength shift. A true strength shift would show the fee rate rising and open interest increasing. Now the price has returned, but leverage hasn't.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Ajian writes three scenarios for Friday's nonfarm payrolls:
Scenario 1: The data is clearly stronger than expected, for example, surging above 100,000, with wages also heating up. The market won't interpret this as good employment but rather that the Fed has more reason to keep interest rates high or even raise them further. The dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields push higher, and $BTC along with growth stocks come under pressure. In such cases, the harshest reaction is when good news is fully priced in because the market trades the good news directly.
Scenario 2: The data is clearly weaker than expected, for example, falling below 30,000, with unemployment rising. Then rate hike pricing will quickly retreat, thoughts of rate cuts resurface, and risk assets get a breather. But Ajian reminds friends that this situation has a hidden pitfall: if the weakness is due to collapsing demand rather than a soft landing, then the rebound is a chance to exit, not to chase. The specific way to distinguish this is to watch consumption and initial jobless claims data over the next two weeks, rather than drawing conclusions on nonfarm payroll night.
Scenario 3: The most frustrating kind, where data is close to expectations, neither up nor down. The market gets no new information and can only grind on, with volatility pushed to other events after Friday. The implication for positions is: don't preemptively take heavy directional bets based on a high-probability bland data release.
In summary, the main value of the nonfarm payrolls is whether it can move December rate pricing, which will determine at least three months of position logic. So the order to watch on Friday night should be: first look at changes in interest rate futures pricing, then the dollar, then Bitcoin. Reversing this order makes it very easy to be misled by the first fake move.
That's all, DYOR #US October Nonfarm Preview: Employment Growth May Influence December Rate Hike Expectations $BTC
The U.S. Treasury needs to replenish its cash reserves, and the market worries that funds will be drained away, meaning there will be even less money for Bitcoin by the end of the year. After reading this, I don't really think the long-term logic of the crypto industry is broken; it seems more like a temporary cash crunch. But this "short term" is quite annoying, dragging on until the end of the year, making the market still tough. What I want to focus on now is the subsequent fiscal spending—after the money goes into the account, when will it be spent again?CHZ, STX, CFX have unlimited supply with continuous issuance diluting tokens, facing heavy resistance for long-term price increase.
RVN, DOT, OP have capped total supply, with scarcity value continuously increasing over time.
RVN is a native asset minting, DOT enables multi-chain interoperability, OP is Ethereum Layer 2 low-cost scaling.
CHZ, STX, CFX have an annual inflation rate roughly between 3%–10%.Really picking up｜Top 5 Altcoins by Gains Today (21:00)
$AXIS +13.33% (24h +12.41%) 1h price -0.72%, volume +1.47%, turnover +17.74%, 4h volume +7.78%, volume 1.47M, turnover 13.6M, volume ratio 9.3. Volume surged in the hour but price didn't follow, small volume
$IRYS +13.20% (24h +15.45%) 1h price +4.89%, volume +6.99%, turnover +11.51% all rising together, 4h volume +12.75%, volume 2.45M, turnover 23.66M, volume ratio 9.7. Long-term volume accumulation pushing price, small volume
$PIEVERSE +12.20% (24h +11.28%) 1h slight movement, 4h sideways, volume 5M, turnover 37.68M, volume ratio 7.5. Large volume stable
$BOME +8.70% (24h +8.53%) 1h price +4.82%, volume +10.18%, turnover +23.30% all rising together, 4h volume +12.87%, volume 1.41M, turnover 4.47M, volume ratio 3.2. Hourly rise together, long-term volume accumulation 12.87%, small volume
$H +7.32% (24h +6.55%) 1h price +2.00%, volume +7.90%, turnover +17.96%, 4h volume +13.24%, volume 1.08M, turnover 2.24M, volume ratio 2.1. Hourly rise together, long-term volume accumulation 13%, micro cap#Strategy repurchase scale is three times the amount of coins bought, is the treasury strategy shifting?
Strategy spent more than three times on repurchasing STRC last week compared to buying coins, yet it didn't stop buying, still purchasing over 800 coins.
I checked its 8-K report from Monday, and the source of funds is quite clear. The money from selling MSTR common stock: 40% goes to buying coins, 60% replenishes cash; the $208 million used to repurchase STRC all comes from cash.
At first, I thought it had shifted the money for buying coins to support preferred stock. That doesn't add up; the amount for buying coins hasn't decreased, but the cash line has dropped. A week ago, there was $242 million, but by last Sunday only $133 million remained, and the replenishment didn't cover it. At this week's repurchase pace, the remaining cash won't last a week.
Also, the over $4 billion reserve is specified in the 8-K as reserved for paying dividends and interest, so don't count it as ammunition for repurchases.
Therefore, in next Monday's 8-K, first look at the cash line; it reveals the tightness of funds earlier than how many coins were bought. I guess next week either repurchases will shrink, or more money from selling stock will be used to replenish cash. If repurchases remain around $200 million and coin purchases increase compared to this week, I'll admit I was wrong.Many brothers start to get nervous as soon as the market rebounds, fearing their short positions will be trapped.
But take a close look at the current market: this rebound can't even touch the 2300 level, the highest point only reached 2303 before immediately softening. What's there to panic about?
Look at the 4-hour chart, the facts are right in front of you:
First, the highs are continuously moving lower. From the previous 2579, to 2538, then recently 2318 and 2303.
Each rebound's high is lower than the last, this is a classic descending channel, the overall trend hasn't changed at all.
Second, volume is extremely thin.
This small bullish candle rising from 2236 has pitifully low trading volume underneath, indicating no major funds are stepping in to catch the fall.
A volume-less rebound is a typical technical bull trap.
It's like a patient who just had the tubes removed and can't even stand steadily—do you expect him to run a marathon right away?
The bulls currently have no strength to break through the dense short squeeze zone above 2300.
The next trading logic is very clear:
Don't chase shorts at the bottom; just wait for it to make a false show of strength upwards.
As long as the rebound reaches the 2300 - 2318 resistance zone and can't push higher, that's an excellent point to add to short positions.
Looking downwards, if it breaks below 2236 again, this decline will accelerate.
Trading is about structure and the big trend, not staring at a few red and green bars on the intraday chart and scaring yourself.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH just surged very sharply this time. The 15-minute chart has consecutive bullish candles, and the price surged above 2280. Seeing it suddenly pull up such a long bullish candle startled me. The short-term surge was very fast, but the subsequent trading volume has started to decrease.
Although the small-scale moving averages were pulled up, and the price crossed the 15-minute EMA20 and EMA50, the 1-hour chart shows several moving averages trending downward, with EMA100 still near 2270. The short-term moving averages below haven't caught up yet, so no upward support has formed.
Looking at the 4-hour chart makes it even clearer. EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 are all pointing downward, with the long-term averages pressing down on the short-term ones. The current price is just touching the 4-hour resistance near 2290. Just above is the 4-hour EMA50, and the larger moving averages are all pressing down overhead.
Overall, I am currently bearish. The price has hit key resistance on the 4-hour chart, and the larger moving averages above are still pressing down. Without volume expansion, it's hard to break through, so the short-term is likely to pull back downward first.
$BTC $SOL #加密行业协同守护资产安全 Midterm election vote counting, what is the crypto community betting on?
On voting day, BTC first dips as a sign of respect, a nearly 2% drop isn't large, but the sentiment is already tense. This is not just a political game; it also affects the regulatory lifeline of the crypto world.
Capital has entered the field. The crypto industry has spent over $200 million in political donations with a clear goal—to push regulatory bills like CLARITY into effect. Regarding control of the two chambers, the Democrats are very likely to take the House, while the Senate remains undecided. If a "split Congress" becomes reality, fiscal expansion will be limited, and the risk asset expectation gap will instantly widen.
The historical script is worth watching. Before the 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, BTC fell by 48%, 37%, and 16% respectively; and in the 12 months after the elections, the average increase was 53.7%. Pre-election sell-offs are mostly emotional venting, and after the results are finalized, a recovery usually follows.
But this time, don't cling to old methods. With interest rate hike expectations overlapping, history can only serve as a reference. BTC is driven by the logic of "fiat distrust + liquidity," and its mid-term logic remains unchanged; ETH depends more on regulatory direction and ETF funds, making it highly sensitive to election outcomes. Before the votes are finalized, watch more and act less.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The crypto industry has an old problem: security has always been a matter of each party minding their own business. Exchanges get hacked, bridges get drained, wallets get phished; when incidents happen, each patches their own holes, and attackers just move on to another target. CZ's idea this time is to turn this from a solo fight into a collective defense.
His statement has two layers. The first is technical: industry participants need to increase investment in AI for security protection. On-chain fund flows, clustering of suspicious addresses, probing behaviors before attacks—these can't be monitored manually, but models can give early warnings. The second layer is standards: establishing unified standards is necessary to collaboratively respond to security threats. Without a common language, two exchanges can't even match a suspicious address.
He also expressed willingness to promote the establishment of an industry alliance to make the security system more complete.
The real difficulty in this logic is not in technology but in organization. An alliance means sharing intelligence, and intelligence is precisely the most sensitive thing—disclosing whose vulnerabilities were exploited or whose risk controls were bypassed is tantamount to exposing weaknesses. There have been many attempts at industry mutual aid historically, but few have become normalized. The key metric is not whether the alliance is formed, but whether members are willing to hand over real attack data.
For $BNB, CZ taking the lead is indeed a plus in terms of narrative: once the security narrative is established, projects and funds in the ecosystem are more willing to stay. But there is a gap between narrative and implementation.
One point worth considering: when security is done well, users don't notice. No incidents mean no praise; one incident means the whole industry takes the blame. This asymmetry is the root cause of why alliances are so hard to sustain.Binance's net capital inflow reached $15.4 billion within 7 days $BNB
After the attack event causing a loss of $630 million, Binance continues to face significant capital outflow pressure.
According to the published cash flow data:
Past 7 days: net outflow of $15.4 billion.
Past 24 hours: net outflow of $3.4 billion.
Assets still held: approximately $124.4 billion.
Following the hacker attack, withdrawal amounts on the Binance platform surged sharply, indicating an impact on user confidence.
Nevertheless, Binance currently still holds about $124.4 billion in assets. Given its current scale, the capital outflow is insufficient to conclude that the exchange is facing liquidity issues.
The developments in the coming days will depend on whether the net capital outflow remains high or gradually stabilizes. The early stage of a Bitcoin bull market may be much longer than most people imagine! This on-chain cost chart is worth a serious look for all long-term investors!
I basically agree with wander's observation! In 2019, after the 6–12 month cost line of $BTC crossed below the 12–18 month cost line (a death cross), it took about 10 months and 24 days to cross back above (a golden cross); in 2023, this process lasted about 12 months.
But this round has only been 3 months and 18 days since the death cross! Currently, the 6–12 month cost line is about 83.9K, and the 12–18 month cost line is about 111.8K, with a clear gap between them. BTC's current price is about 77.7K, not even back above the former yet.
This indicates that the current early bull structure repair may still require more time and chip turnover. I have consistently maintained that BTC has exited the bear market and entered the early bull phase, but early bull does not mean the main upward wave starts immediately! What’s more noteworthy is that this round has been hovering near the 6–12 month cost line for over 40 days without forming an effective breakout.
Next, the key is to watch whether 83.9K can be firmly reclaimed and whether the two cost lines can gradually converge. A true bull market is not announced by a single golden cross but matures gradually through prolonged consolidation, turnover, and cost restructuring!
History is worth referencing, but patience is often more important than prediction! 【On-Chain Close Position Update｜kPEPE】
Monitored address 0x5559 closed a short position (partial close about 55%):
▪ Opening average price: $0.005024
▪ Closing price: $0.004783
▪ Closing amount: $424,936.16
▪ Realized profit: +$21,411 (return +48.0%)
▪ Leverage: 10x
Is anyone else watching this coin? Let's discuss?
Note: This address has earned over $943,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return of +39.72% Glassnode data shows that after Binance opened $BTC withdrawals, OKX's BTC balance increased by about 4,600 coins, making it the main recipient among the 7 exchanges.
Although Coinbase also increased by about 2,700 coins, its hourly fluctuations are naturally large, so the credibility is average (the increased BTC may not necessarily have flowed out from Binance).
Additionally, Bybit received a small portion, about 900 coins. Bitget and Gate saw outflows; this is a bit strange—could it be that because of the Binance situation, users are worried that their BTC held on these two exchanges might also be unsafe?
In any case, the data clearly shows: investors vote with their feet, and besides Binance, the most trustworthy exchange is still OKX.
This data is actually more convincing than the usual metrics we see like trading volume, reserves, growth scale, etc.
When a crisis occurs, where the money flows is the safe haven in users' minds.
Big brother, second brother, and third brother, all clear at a glance.$MSTR purchased 811 bitcoins (worth $65.5 million) for the first time in two weeks, but the purchase price is higher than the current price! $BTC
Strategy company announced the purchase of 811 bitcoins at about $65.5 million, with an average price of $80,846 per bitcoin. This news was released shortly after Saylor's Sunday "recommendation." Currently, the trading price of bitcoin is about $76,700 each.
Bottom fishing does not necessarily mean failure, as Strategy's average cost for buying 848,000 bitcoins is only about $75,000, which is below the current market price. More importantly, the smaller purchase scale indicates they still need to balance between buying tokens and fulfilling incentive obligations.
Is the small purchase strategy enough to keep bitcoin prices stable? Two days after the hacker attack, Binance still dominates cryptocurrency trading volume.
Please see the data from November 1, 2026. Despite the security breach and various speculations surrounding Binance, the exchange still holds a significant share of trading volume.
Spot trading volume:
- Binance: $43.5 billion
- Total tracked trading volume: $105.2 billion
- Binance's share: 41.3%
Perpetual futures contract trading volume:
- Binance: $337.3 billion
- Total tracked trading volume: $617.1 billion
- Binance's share: 54.7%
Even after a multi-billion dollar incident, Binance still accounts for over 41% of the spot trading volume and over 55% of the perpetual futures trading volume shown by the data.
However, this does not mean security incidents can be ignored or that users should not be concerned. Security breaches must be investigated, and trust must be built through transparency and accountability.
But trust is not built overnight, nor should it be judged solely based on rumors.
Binance has been working for years to establish its position in the industry. One incident can damage that trust, but the actual market performance is also worth noting.
These numbers do not tell the whole story, but they do tell us something: Binance remains a major force in the cryptocurrency trading space. $BNB AMD will release its earnings report after the market closes tonight. This time, the market is not really looking at Q3, but rather the guidance for Q4.....
The market estimates revenue for this quarter to be about $13.1 billion, with an EPS of 1.94, slightly higher than AMD's own guidance of $13 billion. Moreover, AMD has beaten expectations every quarter for the past four quarters, so just "exceeding expectations" might no longer be enough!?
I personally am only focusing on the data center segment, which the market estimates at about $8.3 billion, plus how well the MI450 shipment progress is communicated. These two factors are the key to tomorrow's stock movement. AMD will release the results early Wednesday morning Taiwan time.
#AMD財報前瞻：Helios AI系統商業化進展 📊 Bitcoin and the U.S. Midterm Elections: Is the Market Bottom Arriving Early?
Historical data shows that in past cycles, the timing of $BTC's phase bottoms seems to be getting closer to the U.S. midterm elections:
* 2014: Bottom reached 71 days after the election, price around $170.
* 2018: Bottom reached 39 days after the election, price around $3,200.
* 2022: Bottom reached 13 days after the election, price around $15,500.
After each cycle, there was a significant rally, with prices reaching approximately $20,000, $64,000, and eventually $126,000 in subsequent cycles.
However, three historical cycles alone are not enough to prove this is a reliable market pattern.
Macroeconomic conditions, crypto market liquidity, and market structure also play crucial roles in Bitcoin's bottom formation and subsequent trends.
📉 Key question to watch:
Will Bitcoin also form an important bottom around the U.S. midterm elections this time?
History can provide reference but does not guarantee future repetition.
Avoid blindly predicting bottoms; waiting for market confirmation is key.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
US tech AI stocks crashed, Coca-Cola hit a new high, is AI trading really over?
Last night watching the market, the Nasdaq once surged 1.4%, but closed down 1.07% at 25164
The most eye-catching was Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares, which touched a record high of $557.59 intraday. Coca-Cola has risen over 36% this year, outperforming a bunch of tech giants. The money hasn't left the market; it has moved out of AI hardware and into the word "certainty."
So is AI trading over? My answer: the narrative isn't dead, but the old pricing logic has been liquidated. Morgan Stanley data shows hedge fund AI exposure has dropped to "underweight" for the first time since early 2023.
The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, and the market is asking the same question: when will we see profits from nearly a trillion dollars in annual capital expenditure? This doesn't mean the AI story is over; it means the phase of "only looking at vision without looking at the books" has ended.
When will it come back? Watch two things.
First, Nvidia's earnings report on November 17, Wolfe directly said this is the key point for AI trading to "regain favor."
Second, after the nonfarm payrolls and midterm elections settle, will capital dare to take on risk again? Ackman is already saying "Wall Street has overestimated costs and underestimated the profit curve," and Deutsche Bank has upgraded tech stocks from "neutral" to "overweight," but these are all contrarian voices.
Old economy stocks hitting new highs is not a permanent style shift; it's capital finding a place to sleep before the AI books are settled.这次选举的“谁赢”已经被市场定价得差不多了——Kalshi 交易员给民主党众议院 94%、参议院 74%； 不管怎么说，拿好手中的现货，准备充足的现金。 $BTC 和$ETH 这两个重要的加密资产一定要配置。 FiveThirtyEight 类模型给 90% / 83%。所以“民主党赢”本身不会有大行情，真正的交易机会在“意外”和“差多少”上。 对“普通人”的四条实际影响线 1. 汇率（最直接） 美元强弱看的是“财政赤字 + 美联储独立性”，不是谁赢 如果明早出现“共和党守住参议院”的意外 → 美元可能跳涨 1–2%，换汇/留学缴费可以等这波冲高后分批 如果民主党横扫 → 美元走弱，出境游/海淘成本下降 2. 海外资产（QDII/美股/港股） 不要用选举结果做单笔重仓；用分批定投 科技股对“民主党加税”最敏感，新能源/医疗对民主党最友好 3. A股/出口链 真正影响的不是谁赢，而是关税是否升级、对华技术管制是否加码 关注：家电、机械、纺服、消费电子等出口占比高的板块，在 11-4 美股开盘后的反应 4. 加密资产 参议院归属直接决定市场结构法案（CLARITY 类）和稳定币收益条款的命$LIT Negative news: Price rose to $3.24, but starting December 27, three-quarters of the tokens that were previously locked will begin to unlock
The biggest risk lies in the supply; currently about three-quarters of LIT tokens are still not circulating, and unlocking starts on December 27, with insiders' first batch of about 13.5 million tokens at the end of January
This amount is roughly 16 times the average monthly buyback and burn rate in Q3. Lighter has repurchased about $33.2 million this year, so it will be difficult to absorb this volume
Some are already offloading; on November 2, an address starting with 0x14A unstaked and transferred 3.9 million LIT, worth about $12.21 million, to exchanges like OKEx
Today, LIT rose 4.93% to 3.239, with a trading volume of $12.66 million. No new news was seen on the day; the driving force remains the two CFTC license applications to be submitted in November
The applications have not yet been submitted, and even after submission, the review will take about 180 days. It is unclear whether US users will be able to use LIT. The rebound is supported by expectations, with resistance near 3.5 above.