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Moderna's GAAP figures are easily dragged down by three "non-operating items":
• Amortization of acquired intangible assets: In 2025, this alone created a gap of about $2.13 per share between Non-GAAP and GAAP
• Restructuring and impairment expenses: The company's full-year 2026 guidance explicitly includes restructuring costs
• Intangible asset impairments: In Q2 2026, there was a $666 million impairment recorded, directly pushing that quarter's GAAP to −4.41
In other words, this question isn't about sales, but whether there is another large impairment provision this quarter. If there is another impairment, the −1.28 threshold will suddenly become dangerous.
Normally, it will exceed expectations~ Some say prediction markets are more accurate than polls, and I think there's some basis for that. In surveys, casually picking an answer costs nothing, but when you actually have to put money down to express a judgment, you tend to think twice. For example, whether Bitcoin can meet a certain condition by an agreed time—what's traded is a clear outcome, which is different from just watching price ups and downs to make trades. Odds can be taken as a probability reference given by on-exchange funds, but they don't represent everyone's opinion. Especially when few people participate, I start to wonder: do these odds really reflect general consensus, or is it just a big whale with lots of money drowning out other voices?📊 The big Friday Nonfarm Payrolls are about to be released! Is this good or bad news for BTC this time?
This Friday, the U.S. October Nonfarm Employment Report will be published, which could be one of the most important data points for the financial markets this week.
Currently, the market expects new jobs to increase by about 59,000 to 65,000, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage monthly increase is expected to be about 0.3%.
Combined with Wednesday's ADP small nonfarm report showing 86,000 new jobs, higher than market expectations, it indicates the job market has not yet shown obvious signs of slowing down.
I have pre-analyzed three possible scenarios:
🟢 If Nonfarm Payrolls are significantly below expectations:
Employment cools down, the market may raise rate cut expectations again, if the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields fall, BTC and ETH may get support.
🔴 If Nonfarm Payrolls are significantly above expectations:
Employment resilience strengthens, rate cut expectations may cool down, if the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise, the crypto market may come under pressure.
🟡 If the data basically meets expectations:
The market may not only look at the number of new jobs; the unemployment rate and wage growth may determine the short-term direction.
My preliminary judgment: currently, it’s not simple to bet on either good or bad news. What really needs to be watched are the employment numbers, unemployment rate, wage growth, and the reaction of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields after the data release.
One more thing to note: too strong employment may suppress rate cut expectations, while too weak employment may trigger recession concerns. So, worse Nonfarm Payrolls do not necessarily mean Bitcoin will definitely rise.
#USNonfarm #BigNonfarm #FederalReserve #BTC #ETH #BitcoinOn Wednesday, the US stock market posted its largest single-day gain of the year. The Dow rose 1,569 points, up 3.03%, closing at 53,356, returning above 53,000 for the first time since September 8; the S&P 500 rose 1.58%, and the Nasdaq $QQQ rose 1.44%.
Tech stocks split into two groups. During the session, Amazon rose 8%, Apple $AAPL nearly 7%, Google $GOOGL over 6%, Microsoft 4%; CoreWeave fell 10%, Nvidia dropped 3%. The reason is in the ballots: on Tuesday, 41 local votes nationwide related to data centers, 40 of which voters opposed; Democratic governors who called for pausing data centers in Texas, Georgia, and Ohio all won. Laura Martin from Needham said that higher regulatory thresholds protect the incumbents, and the mega cloud providers are the incumbents in AI.
After hours, Qualcomm fell 7%. Last quarter, mobile chip revenue dropped 26% to $5.14 billion; rising memory prices forced phone manufacturers to raise prices, suppressing demand. Data center revenue was only $650 million; CEO Amnon said they aim for $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and added, "It's not a demand issue, it's a supply issue."
Policy risks weigh on those still building data centers; companies with cash flow and ready power supply have become safe havens. This divergence is more important than how much the index rises. Nvidia's 3% drop is also a signal: if large companies' expansion is blocked in several states, the shovel sellers will suffer first. Before Qualcomm's $5 billion target is realized, the stock price must first see when mobile chips stop falling. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC What's the next step, where is the road ahead?
Last night $BTC stalled near 81199.9, $ETH once surged to 2451, spot gold rose above 4100; meanwhile, SanDisk $SNDK plummeted nearly 8%. Where is the money flowing? In short: political uncertainty is cooling down, funds first go to crypto and gold to "catch a breath"; but data center regulation expectations are heating up, storage chips took the first hit.
The Democrats swept Congress, risk assets collectively loosened; but the new Texas governor advocates pausing new data center construction, and Texas accounts for 27% of the US planned capacity. SanDisk sells data center flash memory, once expectations tighten, the logic is broken. Simply put, it's not that flash memory suddenly lost appeal, but "whether data centers will still be built" has become a new question.
Don't get carried away later, watch these levels:
BTC: resistance 80450—81500, only a stable break above counts as a true breakout; support 79800, break below leads to consolidation.
ETH: dividing line 2390, only above it is there a chance to see 2450—2485; break below looks at 2360—2330.
Gold: resistance 4080—4100, support 4045—4020, chasing highs after a big rise is risky.
Don't be fooled by a single bullish candle, nor scared to death by a single bearish candle.
#索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ Bitcoin remains steady above 80,000, Ethereum rose 8% in one day, and after the congressional reshuffle, there was actually a sigh of relief. CLARITY is likely to fade, with money flowing into coins that have their own stories; LINK, DASH, and ENA each have their own narratives.
$LINK around 11.57, Asian stock prices on-chain
Up 7.5% in 24 hours. On Tuesday, Chainlink expanded Asia-Pacific stock data streams from Japan and South Korea to include six exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, covering a market cap of over 40 trillion USD. Resistance at 12.62 above, support at 10.25 below.
$DASH around 49.6, riding the privacy sector wave 🔥
Up 11.2% in 24 hours. ZEC's NU7 is expected to activate early tomorrow morning; funds are rotating early into privacy coins. Kraken has large orders sweeping the thin order book; DASH itself has no new news. In September, it surged to 78.68 before falling back to 54.
$ENA around 0.1835, climbing out of the hacker pit
Up 8.5% in 24 hours. On October 30, hackers who stole 217.5 million ENA from Binance crashed the price to 0.1658 at one point. This time it is rebounding with Ethereum; resistance lies between 0.20 and 0.22.
LINK is the strongest, with real expansion; only a break above 12.62 counts as a true breakout. DASH is the most precarious, relying entirely on ZEC to set the pace; if NU7 activation is fully priced in, the follow-up selling could outpace ZEC. ENA is stuck at 0.20; if the hacker wallets move again, the rebound will have to be given back. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Emerging market sovereign and corporate bonds are the risk-return foundation I first consider when looking at this news. Schroders' first tokenized investment strategy has launched on Solana, with the token symbol SISF. I tend to view this as a positive for on-chain asset supply rather than a direct positive for public chain valuation.
My judgment is that this makes the scenario of traditional asset management continuing to try on-chain issuance more credible, but changing the carrier of bonds does not eliminate credit risk. Whether the odds are worthwhile still depends on whether the returns can cover the underlying risks and usage costs; you can't replace judgment with the institution's name.
According to my speculation, if going on-chain can reduce operational friction and improve information transparency, this kind of attempt is worthwhile; if it is just an additional layer of token packaging, costs may increase and expectations may not improve. I want to see the product terms and actual usage next, and will not give extra credit just for the words "on-chain".After the U.S. midterm elections, has AI really entered a bubble? I don't think so.
Many people attribute the sharp drop in $SNDK and the semiconductor sector to the "AI bubble bursting" after the midterms.
Long position on $SNDK opened at 1499.5, current price 997.7, floating loss -334%. On the surface, this looks like a brutal sell-off, but the real logic behind it is that market sentiment is exaggerating the issue, not that AI fundamentals have collapsed.
After the elections, with the Democrats taking key states, the market fears restrictions on data center approvals and obstacles to computing power expansion. Coupled with large funds using this opportunity to shake out positions, $SNDK was smashed from a high level down to triple digits. But this does not mean AI is doomed. The giants are still spending tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditures, the rigid demand for storage chips remains, and the industry’s prosperity is just shifting from "blind frenzy" to a "calculation cycle."
Looking back at my position, the forced liquidation price is at 735.4, which is already very close to the current price of 997.7. This is the real cost of high leverage during intense shakeouts: even if you are confident in the long-term logic that "it may not be a bubble," you can easily be completely liquidated by short-term political games and emotional panic.
The bubble may not have burst; valuations are just returning to rationality. But the most fatal issue now is not the market itself, but this precarious margin. No matter how solid the logic, it can't withstand the scythe of forced liquidation. If you need to reduce leverage, you must do so.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Breaking down Circle's Q3 financial report, there's not much to say about the revenue growth. The main focus for Ajian is on the following two points:
First, USDC's on-chain transaction volume increased by 49% year-over-year to $13.9 trillion, marking a shift where stablecoins are moving beyond their traditional role as dollar substitutes and beginning to possess broader financial infrastructure attributes. Competition among stablecoins is increasingly leaning towards payment networks, circulation scenarios, and cooperation with financial institutions. This is evidenced multiple times in the report, such as the reiterated plan to acquire Singapore's cross-border B2B payment platform Tazapay, aimed at solving real commercial cash flow issues.
Second, while USDC usage and on-chain transaction volume are growing, Circle's profits do not come entirely from on-chain transactions; it still heavily relies on the yield from reserve assets. Therefore, if interest rates decline in the future, the stablecoin circulation must continue to expand, and payment and service revenues must increase; otherwise, relying solely on reserve yields will make it difficult to maintain high profits.
In summary, everyone's judgment of Circle should be more specific than before. If you can understand the efforts Circle is making in developing payments, custody, enterprise settlement, network infrastructure, and other services, you should be as firmly optimistic about $CRCL as Ajian is. #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Calculating roughly based on the minimum holding and reported valuation, each token is worth about $84. I usually separate accounts first: no matter how large the asset valuation is, it cannot be directly recorded as the achievement of new business.
① Reports say Hyperliquid's core contributors hold at least 238 million $HYPE tokens. The holding scale reflects vested interests but does not represent actual demand for the stock product. ② These holdings are valued at about $20 billion. This is not platform revenue, nor funds that can be directly used to support the new market. ③ Co-founder Jeff Yan went to London to meet policymakers and hinted at possibly offering stock tokens in the future, but no launch time or transaction data has been provided. The liquidity he mentioned may exceed that of traditional stock markets, but it remains a vision for now.
My judgment is that this is a directional signal, not yet business validation. Third-party product supply is very important, meaning platform willingness does not equal implementation capability; I will next watch who provides the product and how exactly the trading will be conducted. 💻 I treat this information as a code review: degentrading mentioned that H100 rental prices rose 26% year-over-year, GB200 rose 50%, which is contrary to the "hashrate depreciation" expectation.
My judgment is that this is still insufficient to prove chip demand expansion. Logical bug: supply constraints can also push up rental prices; price increases do not equal shipment growth. If it were me, I would additionally check new data center deliveries to verify whether expansion can be realized.
Help me review: Using data center deliveries as a verification metric, what variables might be missed?#CircleQ3USDCVolumeUp49% USDC's on-chain transaction volume grew 49% to $13.9T in Q3. That's a strong signal of growing stablecoin activity.
But there's another side: Circle's reserve income fell 8% to $658M as reserve yields declined.
The real story isn't just growth in usage; it's how sustainably that activity translates into revenue.Currently, the market's expectation for a December rate hike is close to 80%, which is already quite high.
Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 65,000, while the previous figure was only 29,000.
I think there's an interesting point this time: the market's tolerance for employment data might already be very limited.
If the data is strong, it will further reinforce rate hike expectations, and risk assets will continue to be under pressure.
If the data is weak, it might actually cool down this round of rate hike expectations.
But one thing: don't just focus on the number of new jobs added; the unemployment rate and wage growth are equally important.
I actually hope this non-farm payrolls report can give the market a clear direction. With the recent Bitcoin trend jumping up and down every day, there's really no good trading experience.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ There is a change that many people have not yet realized: the attack rhythm in the crypto industry has shifted from "periodic events" to "daily events."
CZ said that attacks used to happen about once a week or month, but now there can be several in a single day. The reason is simple—AI has fully automated reconnaissance, phishing, and vulnerability discovery. It used to take weeks of human effort to find a single vulnerability; now machines can scan thousands of targets simultaneously. Attack costs are decreasing, but defense costs are not.
On October 29, Binance suffered an attack amounting to $6.3 billion. The significance of this number is not whether Binance can afford the loss, but that it has exceeded the capacity of a single exchange to bear. The FBI attributed this attack to North Korean hackers, and CZ said the impact involves global finance and national security.
Therefore, he proposed a set of alliance mechanisms: sharing audit findings, exchanging attack experiences, and coordinating asset freezes. These three may sound plain, but each hits a pain point. Audit findings are the most reluctant information to be shared by each party, attack experience is intelligence, and freezing assets requires instant cooperation across platforms and jurisdictions.
The judgment is: the industry itself admits insufficient security investment. Holders of $BTC and $ETH are all on this chain—your asset security does not depend on how strong the exchange you choose is, but on how weak the weakest one is.
Something worth thinking about: if the alliance is truly established, exchanges will have to reveal their bottom cards to each other. The day this happens will indicate the maturity of the industry more than the next market cycle.Bitcoin $BTC is currently priced at about $80,675, up 5.23% in the past 24 hours, while Ethereum $ETH is even stronger, priced at about $2,430, up 7.73%.
Looking at the price range over the past 7 days, Bitcoin is positioned at about 79.2% from low to high, while Ethereum has climbed to a high of 92.8%. The strength of Ethereum's rebound clearly surpasses that of Bitcoin.
The volatility is also greater than in previous days. Bitcoin's 24-hour volatility is 7.09%, more than twice the 7-day average level. This amplification often corresponds to leveraged trading and a heating up of short-term sentiment.
In the market structure, it can also be seen that the open interest in the entire contract market increased by 4.01% within 24 hours, with liquidation amounts surging to $976 million, more than three times that of the previous day. Although the funding rate is positive, it is not yet extreme. The long-short ratio is almost evenly split, indicating that longs and shorts are still competing. The price was pushed up by a rapid short squeeze and covering.
$ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Midterm elections, the Democratic Party took control of both chambers of Congress. The president is still Trump, so it’s not "Democratic Party in power," but a divided government: the White House and Congress belong to two different parties. The White House makes the final decisions, while Congress controls the budget and legislation. Since the two sides are not unified, major issues will inevitably be contentious.
Regarding the US stock market:
Historically, during divided governments, the US stock market usually performs well. The reason is that with both sides blocking each other, major new policies are hard to pass, which the market actually views as a better expectation.
This time, the AI data center sector is hit most directly. The results in Texas have already caused a round of stock declines because Texas accounts for about 27% of the planned data center power capacity in the US (according to Wells Fargo data).
Uncertainty has increased regarding energy approvals and electricity price subsidies. Matters requiring congressional cooperation, such as tax cuts continuation and tariffs, will progress more slowly. Antitrust scrutiny on tech giants may become stricter.
Regarding the crypto space:
The stablecoin bill GENIUS has already become law, and issuer regulatory rules will take effect as scheduled from January 18, 2027; this election cannot change that.
What’s stuck is the market structure bill CLARITY: it has passed the House, but the Senate failed to advance the vote on September 15. This Congress ends on January 3. If it misses the deadline, it will have to start over, and the new Congress is likely to make it stricter.
Congress may focus on crypto projects related to the Trump family, such as WLFI, but real action can only happen after the new Congress takes office in January next year.
💰 What about the price?
On election night, BTC once dropped to about 75.7K (CoinDesk), then rebounded in a V-shape to about 78 On November 2 and 3, the US BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $398.6 million and $115.6 million respectively, totaling about $514.2 million over the two days. The selling pressure has somewhat eased, but the direction of funds has not yet turned positive.
At the same time, corporate treasuries are not always ready to provide buying support. Their increased BTC holdings depend on their own cash flow, financing conditions, and shareholder acceptance. When the market environment changes, the pace of buying can adjust accordingly.
This makes me increasingly focus on one question: can the different buyers who supported the market in the past continue to provide funds?
ETF demand and corporate treasury demand can complement each other, but neither is obligated to take over if the other weakens. With both sides cautious, prices need to attract other investors or wait for existing buyers to increase their allocations again.
I don’t want to describe the outflows as a full institutional retreat, nor will I prematurely declare funds have returned just because daily outflows have decreased. The new round of data on November 4 still needs to be fully disclosed, and blank entries should not be taken as confirmed zero inflows.
If prices rebound first, I will be happy, but I want to see follow-up funds come in. What has tested patience most recently is that despite many positives, buying momentum has not been stable enough. Whether the rebound can go far ultimately depends on someone willing to keep paying.
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 $ETH 从 2300 跌到 2225 只用了半个夜晚，反弹的力度却让做空的人开始怀疑人生。这位交易者把 15 倍杠杆的空单压在 $BTC 上，仓位极重，嘴上说“扛得住”，心里已经在盘算爆仓的痛感——当一个人开始用“真牛市不可能让我爆仓”来说服自己时，市场往往正准备给出相反的答案。 真正值得琢磨的不是他亏了多少，而是他描述的那条因果链：先是一波高杠杆多头的连环止损，消息落地后情绪迅速切换到牛市叙事。这个顺序本身就是信号。清算驱动的下跌通常来得快、修复也快，但如果是叙事切换后的资金重新定价，反弹就不会给空头留体面。$ETH 的 V 型修复更像后者——它不是被动补涨，而是在消息窗口里被主动买入。 多数人把这类反弹当成“死猫跳”，理由是宏观没转向、增量资金没进场。但市场结构给出的信息更直接：当空头在反弹中选择“扛”而不是“认”，意味着上方还有一批未被清算的止损盘。$BTC 的 15 倍空单看似杠杆不高，可仓位重意味着保证金缓冲薄，价格每上一个百分点，心理压力是翻倍的。这类持仓不会主动平仓，只会被动平仓，而被动平仓的买盘恰恰是反弹的燃料。 关键分歧在于：这轮修复是清算后的技术性回补，还是叙事轮🛢️ Oil prices plunge, Microsoft and Amazon rise over 6%, but AI infrastructure stocks collectively dive — what is the market trading?
The Democratic Party promises to push for an end to the Iran conflict, with funds betting on "cooling war and easing inflation." Brent crude closed down 8.67%, WTI down 8.29%, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem.
But this rally shows key divergence: the market welcomes giants spending less, yet worries about companies relying on that spending for survival.
1️⃣ Giants: Slower capital expenditure = reduced cash flow pressure, and the scarcity of existing computing power actually appreciates in value.
2️⃣ Suppliers: The giants' costs are their revenue. When construction slows, orders are delayed, and payments slow down. Last night, Micron and SanDisk fell about 7%, CoreWeave dropped over 9%, and Marvell and Lumentum fell over 7%.
AI trading is shifting from "the faster the expansion, the better" to "who can hold onto cash and who can realize profits."
Next, two things need verification: whether the ceasefire promise can turn into actual progress, and whether data center regulations will truly affect the giants' investment plans. Statements can drive a day's market, but trends depend on orders and cash flow.The Layer 2 sector has been pushed to the extreme, with each project competing on TVL and ecosystem. But behind the impressive on-paper data, holders of L2 tokens often find it difficult to share in the ecosystem's prosperity dividends.
Comparing these three targets:
$ARB: The absolute leader in TVL. However, almost all the on-chain fee revenue flows into the DAO treasury. The token currently serves purely as governance voting power and faces massive linear unlocks for early investors and the team. Buying it is a bet on future governance passing empowerment proposals.
$OP: The core of the superchain. Early on, it designed revenue sharing and buyback plans. But with the independence and diversion of core chains like Base, the actual buyback execution has been greatly reduced, and the foundation refuses to commit to long-term buybacks. Buying it is more about buying into the "superchain" vision.
$METIS: Focuses on decentralized sequencers. Mechanistically innovative, attempting to let ecosystem revenue flow back, but limited by the relatively small overall TVL scale, the real protocol income and token buy pressure are relatively weak.
Conclusion:
ARB is "pure governance, no capture"; OP is "buybacks drastically reduced"; METIS is "mechanism innovation but too small in scale." When evaluating L2, don't just look at TVL; check whether real fees are forcibly converted into token buy pressure. $UMA
UMA runs an optimistic oracle, where data is assumed correct unless someone disputes it. That makes it efficient and flexible for things like prediction markets and insurance. Its weak point is human behavior: disputes and voting can be gamed if incentives aren't well designed, so governance history deserves scrutiny.$AAOI: Fundamentals unchanged, so why did the stock price halve?
AOI (Applied Optoelectronics) this year’s trend shows that the problem lies in valuation and shareholding structure, not in the CPO logic.
Price increase: In the past twelve months, the stock price rose over 700%, reaching a high of $233.67 on May 13. Such a rise has already priced in orders for the next few years.
Fundamentals: Q1 EPS was -$0.12, below expectations. Market cap is already in the tens of billions of dollars, but the company is still losing money. Whether gross margin can improve with shipment volume growth is the core logic of this stock. The market is willing to pay for the story, provided profits materialize, but the numbers have not kept pace.
Financing: The company announced a $600 million secondary offering plan, and the stock price dropped over 16% at the opening that day. This dilutes existing shareholders and indicates that the company itself chose this high point as a cash-out window.
Sentiment: On July 2, AOI fell about 16% in one day, closing at $116.86, less than half the peak. At that time, the market was selling off High Beta, unprofitable tech stocks, and when funds exit, they do not distinguish whose story is more genuine.
· Therefore, the CPO industry trend can remain unchanged, yet the stock price still halves.
· Industry logic determines the company’s ultimate value; valuation, dilution, and liquidity determine the price at which you buy it.
· AOI’s problem is that the price ran ahead of performance, coinciding with financing and style rotation.
#AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ A net inflow of $53 million, and the ETF homeroom teacher in my mind immediately prepared to give out the "Class Progress Award." I quickly stopped them: Teacher, you’re looking at the total score without seeing who submitted the papers 😂 After seven consecutive trading days of net outflows, the US Ethereum spot ETF finally turned positive.
I think this is a positive signal for $ETH at the channel level, but it’s not enough evidence to prove a collective institutional shift. Net inflow is the result after offsetting subscriptions and redemptions, so it doesn’t show the full picture of capital movement. My guess is, if the inflow is concentrated in a few funds while other products are still being redeemed, then this warmth can’t be evenly distributed to everyone. I’d rather see the capital distribution than rush to leverage the sentiment.
For this net inflow, would you rather check the breakdown of subscriptions and redemptions, or the inflow distribution across funds? Pick one, let’s not just look at the total score and hand out awards to the whole class."May affect the overall Democratic Party crypto policy," I am focusing on this "may." 💻 According to code review habits, this is just an input condition, not a runtime result. The Digital Chamber calls Brown's victory the worst outcome for the industry and believes that consumer protection and regulatory accountability may receive more attention.
My judgment is that this message is more like a policy risk warning and is not enough to declare a bearish outlook for the entire industry. The potential bug in the logic is directly linking individual election wins, intra-party policy changes, and specific rule implementation into an inevitable execution process, without expanding on the conditional judgments in between.
If it were me, I would change "worst" to a pending verification item: if subsequent rules do not add business restrictions indiscriminately, then the industry pressure will have a clearer focus. This is my speculation, not a conclusion already given by the material. I will wait for specific policies to enter review before updating my judgment, and I am not in a hurry to let the headline draw conclusions for me.One or two oversold rebounds are nothing special, and it doesn't mean a bull market has arrived. A bull market involves a large influx of new off-exchange funds entering, with risk assets rising simultaneously. The current violent rebound in gold and Bitcoin is merely due to funds related to AI in the US stock market fleeing and buying for hedging. Once the buying dries up, the prices will just fluctuate back and forth. The current macro environment does not yet meet the conditions for a bull market.$SNX
Synthetic assets introduce an ambitious concept: providing blockchain-based exposure to different financial markets without relying entirely on traditional infrastructure. Synthetix has developed around this idea, but the model faces challenges involving liquidity, collateral requirements, risk management, and competition. Its long-term relevance depends on whether users find practical reasons to use these products.DePIN rose 5.79% in one day. Staring at this number, what comes to mind is the old problem of running a company: the books look lively, but can you actually pay the bills? According to SoSoValue data, this round saw a general rebound in the crypto sector, with Bitcoin and Ethereum also strengthening, and DePIN leading the gains. I prefer to see this as the market re-pricing this sector rather than as proof that the business model has already been validated.
Doing business means calculating input versus output. Equipment investment is just the beginning; there are ongoing expenses like maintenance and operations. Applied to DePIN, what concerns me most is: how much of the user payments come from genuine demand, and how much is propped up by incentives? A rising token price can improve participants' paper returns, but it doesn't automatically mean customers are willing to keep paying. These two accounts should not be mixed.
My judgment is that this rally is positive for sector sentiment but offers limited proof of operational quality. Here's my speculation: if revenue depends on token incentives but expenses must be paid continuously in cash, then when the market cools, cash flow gaps may be exposed. Risk reserves must be kept according to expenses and cannot be counted on rising market expectations.
When I look at this kind of news, I first separate the price increase from the operational accounts. Next, I want to observe whether projects disclose paid demand, ongoing costs, and reserve arrangements; attractive valuations can boost morale, but only cash flow that can survive the off-season convinces me.11月3日，世界黄金协会发布2026年第三季度黄金需求报告。央行和其他官方机构净增持321吨，实物支持型黄金ETF持仓净增约211吨，全球金条金币需求却同比下降19%。同一个季度，为什么有的渠道在增持，有的渠道需求在减少？ 先把比较基准对齐。321吨和211吨分别是官方部门和ETF在三季度的净增持量，19%则是金条金币需求相对去年同期的降幅。如果统一看同比，官方部门净买入增加42%，ETF当季净增持量减少6%，金条金币需求减少19%。 官方部门买了321吨，其中约120吨已有公开报告 321吨是全球央行和其他官方机构买入扣除卖出后的净额。按截至10月30日的披露数据，国家层面已报告的净买入约120吨，其余约63%由世界黄金协会对未报告活动进行估算后纳入。随着后续披露补充，季度数据可能修订，现有公开信息只支持对已披露部分做国别归因。 世界黄金协会把储备多元化和风险管理视为官方购买的主要驱动。对官方部门来说，增持黄金是调整整个储备组合的一种方式。这个决策发生在储备管理层面，与零售买家在不同资产之间的选择有各自的考量，因此两类需求在同一季度可以朝不同方向变化。 ETF从净流出转正，增持规模低BTC briefly dipped to 75,691 today, ETH spiked to 2,226, but don’t just focus on the candlesticks. What’s more noteworthy is the shrinking positions: BTC perpetual 24-hour open interest dropped by 2.1%, ETH 7-day open interest decreased by 6.2%, indicating that old leverage is being withdrawn. This signal doesn’t mean the sell-off is fully cleared; it’s more like deleveraging on one side while re-betting on the other. The question is whether the new positions are bottom-fishing long or trend-following short — it’s still unclear.
Funding rates haven’t fully cooled off either: BTC remains at +0.01%, ETH has cooled but is still above the 7-day average. Price breakdown and total positions declining leave long costs relatively high, making the structure unstable.
Whether this is a fakeout or a real drop depends on where the new positions stand after the old leverage is cleared. Strategically, don’t rush to catch the falling knife; wait until funding rates truly cool down and BTC holds above 75,000 again before discussing further.
$BTC $ETH
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC انتخابات التجديد النصفي الأمريكية تُجرى اليوم، وهذا أمر إيجابي لبيتكوين على المدى الطويل. يُظهر التاريخ أن BTC ارتفع دائمًا خلال الاثني عشر شهرًا التي أعقبت الانتخابات الثلاث الأخيرة. 2014: +24.5% 2018: +44.9% 2022: +92.3% ولهذه الانتخابات أهمية كبيرة بالنسبة إلى العملات المشفرة. لقد تعثّر قانون CLARITY بالفعل في مجلس الشيوخ، وإذا فاز الديمقراطيون، فستتراجع فرص إقراره أكثر. وليس هذا فحسب، بل قد يدفع فوز الديمقراطيين ترامب إلى شنّ هجمات جديدة على إيران، ما سيؤدي إلى ارتفاع أسعار النفط والتضخ🔥 ETH bulls shouldn't just focus on a rebound; what really needs caution right now is position risk!
📊 According to an order book data I follow, the short positions have reached 1.5 billion USDT, while the long positions are relatively weak. More importantly, some long entries are concentrated above 2890. If the current price continues to face pressure, these high-level positions could face greater unrealized losses and margin pressure.
⚠️ The most dangerous scenario is that a price drop triggers a batch of long stop losses, which then leads to forced liquidations of high-leverage accounts. The concentrated selling could turn a normal pullback into a rapid plunge. This process doesn't require all bulls to give up simultaneously; just a concentrated exit near key price levels can amplify volatility.
🔎 But I won't conclude that ETH must fall just because short positions are large. Large holders' positions may include hedges, and data from a single platform doesn't represent the entire market. What really matters is whether shorts continue to add positions and whether spot buying can catch the price during a decline.
🛡️ For today's operations, controlling leverage and setting good stop losses are far more important than guessing the bottom.
If you currently hold ETH longs, would you choose to reduce positions for defense or continue waiting for a rebound? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ I first put on the brakes for myself after reading: more equity VS less US dollars, you can't directly equate the two.
Hayes estimates that SpaceX may add about 8.6 billion new shares outstanding by June 2027, increasing share supply by about 50%, and warns this could drag down crypto liquidity.
I treat this as a risk contingency plan, not a realized negative. The transmission only holds if AI credit contraction leads to bank balance sheet shrinkage. Which side do you choose: to be alert early to dilution risk, or to wait for evidence of credit contraction? BTC pulled back to 80,000, I revise my view: short-term focus on recovery first.
On November 4, the daily candle closed at 80,508, up 3.94%. During the session, it dipped below the low before October 30, but ultimately recovered to 80,000, closing higher than the highest price of the previous two days.
Yesterday I was bearish, but after this bullish candle appeared, I can no longer pretend the market hasn't changed.
The short-term selling pressure was absorbed, marking a win for the bulls. Moving forward, I am more optimistic about the continuation of the recovery, initially targeting the 50-day moving average around 82,000.
However, the resistance zone between 84,000 and 85,000 remains, and a higher low has yet to be confirmed. Today, I am adjusting the short-term direction, but more evidence is needed to confirm a bull market restart.$BTC Every midterm election period marks the end of a bear market. This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins. The difference is that each bottoming time has been occurring earlier. $xCRCL's earnings report exceeded expectations, but what I think is truly worth focusing on is not how much money it made, but the relationship between USDC growth and shareholder returns.
Circle's latest quarterly revenue reached $865 million, a 17% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share of $0.84, significantly surpassing market expectations. However, the USDC circulation at the end of the quarter was about $73.9 billion, basically flat year-over-year.
This is interesting.
Making money from stablecoin business does not necessarily mean the stablecoin scale is growing rapidly. Interest income from reserve assets, interest rate changes, and operating costs can all affect Circle's profits.
For on-chain US stock and RWA investors, what I care more about is: how much sustainable income can future stablecoin payments and tokenized securities settlement scale expansion bring?
CRCL stock reflects the company's equity value, while USDC is just a dollar stablecoin; the two are not the same. Even if you gain CRCL price exposure through on-chain products, you must first confirm whether you have real shareholder rights, as well as liquidity and trading session restrictions.
I will not chase the price just because of one earnings beat for now. The next focus is whether USDC circulation can accelerate again and whether non-interest business income can continue to grow.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49%
@OKX星球 Microsoft: I used to not care when you called me "Giant Soft," what do you call me now?
Microsoft has rebounded from 504.96 to 555.8, soaring 6.68% in a single day, the king returns.
The market is straightforward: the daily chart closed above the BOLL upper band at 550.7, RSI6 surged to 71.7, a bit overexcited in the short term. MA5/20/60 are supporting at 527/531/510 respectively, the EMA structure remains intact, but the price is too far from the middle band at 530.9, technically a pullback is needed. The strong resistance above is at the previous high of 559.15, and the downside retracement target is 543.
The real story is in the news. FY27 Q1 revenue is 92.3 billion (+19%), Azure's constant currency growth rate is 48%, Morgan Stanley raised the target price to 650, the story remains attractive. But on the other hand, capital expenditure soared 70% year-over-year to 41 billion, free cash flow is being eaten up by AI infrastructure, 4,800 layoffs, and another 60,000 "voluntary departures" pushed, clearly "cutting headcount costs to pay for GPU expenses." The market is willing to believe "AI investments will eventually pay off," but no one guarantees the payback period.
Sentiment-wise, institutions are banding together, retail investors are following.
My view: Microsoft is not like Nvidia, a pure growth stock; it is "the most stable cloud leader + the most expensive AI bet." The long-term logic hasn't collapsed, Azure + Copilot moat remains; short-term, don't chase above 555, wait for a pullback to 531-543 to stabilize before considering, break below 505 to talk about weakness.
#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ The way the Korean stock market is falling today is indeed a bit scary😥
The KOSPI once dropped more than 5% intraday, even triggering a temporary limit on program trading. SK Hynix $SKHYNIX fell more than 7% at one point, and Samsung Electronics didn't fare much better.
What’s even more noteworthy is the capital flow:
By 11 a.m., foreign investors had net sold stocks worth over 1.2 trillion KRW, while retail investors were aggressively buying.
Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, but semiconductors fell sharply against the trend, and today the Korean stock market is taking another hit.
I talked about this yesterday: after the U.S. midterm elections, the market began to worry that AI data center construction would face stricter regulations; but the Korean market has another problem—KOSPI is overly dependent on semiconductor giants like Samsung and Hynix.
As global capital starts to reassess the growth rate of AI capital expenditures, the Korean stock market naturally takes the brunt.
However, I believe that the current stock price plunge should not be directly interpreted as a problem with HBM demand:
Hynix’s fundamentals have not changed so drastically overnight, but market expectations for future growth have already begun to loosen.
Moving forward, I’m more focused on whether foreign capital selling can ease, because if foreign investors keep withdrawing, retail investors alone can’t support the entire market.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BNB
$634 million. The amount stolen from Binance's hot wallet on October 29, the largest in history, with over $280 million still frozen.
Binance itself said it compensated 95%, the remaining 5% are illiquid niche coins, slowly being bought back both on and off the market. The third batch of withdrawals was unlocked today at noon, covering 36 coins, using the Ethereum network.
The strange thing is BNB. During the worst days of the incident, it didn't collapse; today it even rose by 2%, opening at 699.36 in 24h, touching 723.34 at 6 a.m., now at 713.5.
Looking closer, it’s not that good. At 10 a.m., a 1H candle released 543,000 contracts, touched 720.47 but failed to hold, then at 11 a.m. 208,000, 12 p.m. 161,000, 1 p.m. 217,000, volume dropped to one-third, price slipped from 715.9 to 713.7.
Fee rate 0.00456%, benchmark 0.01%, about 45%. Perpetual contract discount 6 basis points. Total market open interest only $49 million, thin among major coins, meaning no one is betting on BNB regarding this event.
Net outflow is real. On November 1, the first day, $4.6 billion withdrawn, $1 billion deposited, net outflow $3.64 billion, accounting for 2.1% of its asset management scale.
The books can hold up, but sentiment is slowly moving out. The real answer is not in BNB’s K-line, but whether the withdrawal queue for those 36 coins is still lining up.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Circle Q3 earnings breakdown: strong revenue, average quality.
Revenue of $865 million, up 17% year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA surged 85%, USDC on-chain transaction volume increased 49% — looks like a solid report card.
But breaking down the structure, there are three points to temper enthusiasm.
First, the profitable core business is shrinking. Reserve income was $658 million, down 8% year-over-year — this is the stablecoin company's most critical money printer; when interest rates fall, it stops working. This quarter's profit was supported by $207 million in "other income," of which $182 million came from selling its own ARC tokens, a one-time income. So net profit only increased 5%, a huge gap compared to the 85% EBITDA growth.
Second, volume rises but price does not. On-chain transaction volume increased 49%, but USDC circulation only grew 8% — the more frequent the transactions, the thinner the fee earned per dollar, indicating growth relies on "running volume" rather than "expanding the balance sheet."
Third, transformation is accelerating. Annualized payment network volume of $41.3 billion, acquisition of Tazapay, 5% layoffs to control costs — Circle is clearly pushing the narrative of becoming the "stablecoin version of Visa," reducing reliance on interest income.
The stablecoin sector has no long-term issues, but Circle's Achilles' heel remains interest rates — if rates really rise in December, it would actually be bad news for them.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Market: BTC rebounds in a V-shape from 75,600 to above 80,000
Overnight, BTC briefly dipped to about $75,618, then pulled back to the 80,000–81,200 range, rising about 3%–5% in 24h;
ETH surpassed $2,400, up 5%–7%
Sector-wide gains: DePIN +5.79%, RWA +5.47%, Layer2 +5.28%, individual tokens STX +11.31%, INJ +12.41%, RAY +17.73%
But the truth lies in derivatives: $936.1 million liquidated across the network in 24h, with shorts liquidated at $533.28 million; BTC single short liquidations about $370 million, with $215 million shorts liquidated within one hour.
Meanwhile, open interest actually dropped 4.36% to $347.73 billion — volume expanded but positions shrank, a typical short squeeze rather than new buying.
Sentiment hasn’t truly turned optimistic: put option demand is more than twice that of calls; BTC spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $1.157 billion over the last three confirmed trading days, with over 130,000 liquidations across the market according to Sina’s data $BTC $ETH $SOL
Around 1 PM, I saw a breaking news that Schroders brought its first tokenized strategy onto Solana, and the comment section below was full of institutions entering.
I went to check the original announcement. This was actually released yesterday afternoon, but the news only got picked up a day later. It’s Schroders’ Emerging Markets Bond Fund, issued via Centrifuge, a brand with $1 trillion AUM, indeed the first active management strategy of this scale on Solana.
But the announcement didn’t mention the scale, the minimum investment threshold, nor did it provide the contract address.
The market didn’t give it any respect either. SOL touched 97.06 today then pulled back, currently at 96.05. The 1H volume bars at 9 AM were 418K, 10 AM 347K, 11 AM 364K pushing higher, 12 PM 291K, and from 1 PM till now 185K, volume shrinking with each bar.
The fee rate is 0.00225%, benchmark is 0.01%, just over 20%. The perpetual contract is even trading at a 4 bp discount, with a $334 million position unchanged for a day.
If big money really came in on this news, it wouldn’t be at this fee rate. I acknowledge the RWA line, that’s a three-to-five-year play, but short term it’s about who’s getting paid. The ±1% order book shows 9.17 million buy vs. 8.62 million sell, just standing off against each other.
My judgment is this news is worth a research report, not a single bullish candle.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ After the chaotic US midterm elections, the market is trading on an expectation: a change in the US Congress composition may reduce the likelihood of the US escalating the conflict with Iran further, thereby easing energy supply risks. However, Ajian does not believe that yesterday's drop in oil prices means inflationary pressures have disappeared, and the recent rebound of $BTC cannot yet be called a trend reversal.
It should be noted that in the past month, the crypto market capitalization has shrunk by nearly $300 billion, influenced not only by macro interest rates but also by factors such as AI asset valuations and security incidents on trading platforms. The reality is that the market has not yet re-established a sustained spot buying demand, and one must not compress a transmission chain into a simple conclusion of price rise or fall.
Therefore, from a macro perspective on Crypto, I suggest continuously focusing on this logic: changes in energy prices → changes in inflation expectations → changes in bond yields → changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations → changes in risk asset valuations.
That is all, DYOR #USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both houses of Congress The whale's "short rent collection technique": not worried about floating losses, funding fees provide the safety net (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
This whale has cast a big net in perpetual contracts: BTC, ETH, and SOL all covered on the short side, with a nominal position of about $660 million. On the surface, the BTC short position shows a floating loss of $3.62 million, which looks a bit glaring, but the funding fee income of $3.59 million almost fills the gap; the ETH short position has a floating profit of $2.35 million, plus funding fees collected of $4.56 million; the SOL short position has a floating profit of $346,000, with funding fee income of $3.96 million. The total funding fees from the three positions amount to about $12.12 million, not only covering the overall floating loss but also contributing positive returns (￣▽￣)ノ
Its strategy is not to bet on a short-term crash but to "collect rent" on long-term shorts, exchanging time for space. Positions use full margin mode, with 5x leverage on BTC and ETH, and 7x leverage on SOL. The opening average prices are BTC at $76,383, ETH at $2,322.71, and SOL at $94.33; corresponding liquidation prices are approximately $137,256, $3,793.19, and $292.81 respectively.
The sweet spot of this portfolio is the continuous inflow of funding fees, but the risk is obvious: full margin collateral linkage means that if extreme market conditions approach the liquidation prices, the three positions could drag each other down ⚠️. So, while the whale seems to be sitting steadily on the fishing platform, it is actually still racing against extreme volatility.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 结果落地这件事，市场等的从来不是谁赢，是「完了没有」。不确定性一清，风险资产就敢把仓位抬起来：BTC 第一次站上 8 万，ETH 单日拉 6%。这波涨的不是基本面，是定价权从空头手里回到多头手里。 政策那条线我先把话说死：民主党拿下两院，行业想要的那部市场结构法案在参议院的程序性投票已经受挫。选举年里没人会为加密的选票买单，他们要的是不出事的姿态。还在指望华盛顿给行业发礼物的人，这一轮该醒了。 真正推价格的是钱和杠杆，不是立法。结果落地那两天，两个小时里 2.36 亿美元的仓位被强平，八成是空头——空头被迫在盘口买回来，8 万这条线就是这么来的。谁在被迫平仓，谁就在付账，这条规律比任何政策都硬。 机构那头在反向走。现货产品连着三个交易日净流出、三天加起来十亿出头，撤得最狠的一天走了 6.4 亿；选举当天才第一次转正，一天就补回 2.3 亿。杠杆多头把价格顶上去、机构先把仓位减了再回来，这两股力量能不能收敛，是接下来该盯的地方——不是华盛顿，是资金流。 历史得摆上桌：2018 年 11 月中期选举之后，比特币从 6,000 美元下方一路磨到 2019 年二季度的 1.3 万；2022 年🔥BTC surged over 7% but failed to hold above $81,199! What does this indicate? A strong rebound does not mean the uptrend is confirmed. The real focus of today's market move should be the capital structure behind the rise, not just the big bullish candle.📈
First, looking at the news: The US midterm election results are becoming clearer, with the Democrats taking both chambers. The market briefly worried about changes in crypto regulation, and the progress of the CLARITY Act might be hindered, causing BTC to dip near $75,700. Then, as uncertainty eased and market sentiment recovered, the price quickly rebounded.
📊 Next, looking at the derivatives market. According to CoinDesk, on election day, BTC options block trades had a notional value of about $660 million, with roughly $420 million in call option buys and about $105 million in call option sells. Increased bullish bets and short covering may have created additional buying pressure, driving the price up rapidly.
⚠️ The issue is that after BTC hit $81,199, it pulled back, possibly releasing pressure from profit-taking and trapped positions above. My short-term strategy remains to look for shorting opportunities on rebounds, not chasing shorts at lows or longs during sharp rallies. If volume supports a stable hold above $81,200, a reassessment will be necessary.
Going forward, I’m more focused on whether spot buying can continue the momentum. Do you think this is a brief short squeeze or the start of a new trend? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ 🔥BTC pulled up from $75,700 to $81,199, then reversed and fell from the high! The most dangerous part of this rally is not the rapid rise, but that many people tend to chase longs when they see a rebound and immediately chase shorts when they see a pullback. 😂
🧭 I break down this rise into three factors: first, the US midterm election results were finalized, easing political uncertainty; second, bullish bets in the options market clearly increased, with CoinDesk revealing about $660 million in BTC bulk options trades on election day, including about $420 million in call option purchases; third, short covering and leverage liquidations may further amplify the gains.
📈 But the failure to hold above $81,199 after the rise indicates that selling pressure above is still worth watching. Buying options does not equal continuous spot market inflows, and short covering does not mean a new bull market has started.
My trading plan is clear: no chasing longs in the short term, wait for the rebound to meet resistance before considering shorts; if the price breaks out with volume and holds above $81,200, then abandon the original short bias and re-examine the bullish structure. ⚠️
Trading is not about catching every move, but only doing what you are confident in. Do you think $81,200 is the watershed for the rebound, or the starting point for the next bullish breakout? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $ETH $BTC
ETH current price is $2,424, up 6% in 24 hours.
With the election results finalized, the market was once under pressure: BTC dipped to 75,700, ETH touched 2,226. US market sentiment reversed, oil prices fell 8.3%, lowering inflation expectations, ETH ETF ended five days of net outflows, and short covering pushed the price back to 2,450.
This is still a recovery after the bearish exhaustion, not a reversal. The probability of a December rate hike is 81%, the 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.97%, liquidity is not loose. On the policy front, with the Democrats controlling both chambers, the CLARITY Act is stalled, and approval of ETH staking ETFs may be slower.
Resistance above is at 2,450 and 2,509 (MA50), support below is at 2,174, the lower edge of the range. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the next variable.
The above does not constitute investment advice and is for reference only. My first reaction is: this risk chain can run, but don't treat conditional branches as certainties.
Arthur Hayes estimates that SpaceX's circulating stock supply could increase by about 50% by June 2027, and warns that AI credit contraction may compress dollar liquidity, dragging down the crypto market.
I think credit is more critical than unlocking. The potential bug is treating unlocking directly as a sell-off; if financing costs continue to rise, the pressure may then spread outward. If it were me, I would first watch the financing conditions and not preemptively assume a market rescue scenario. After the Democratic Party's landslide victory yesterday, BTC first dropped to around 75,600, then rebounded in a V-shape.
It was still stable around 79,000 before sleep, so how did it directly surge to 80,000 in the morning?
Liquidation map shows:
Breaking through 82,000 liquidated about 337 million short positions, while falling below 79,000 has about 919 million long positions waiting to be liquidated.
My judgment:
Above 81,000 is a resistance test zone, suitable for betting on a pullback after a rebound exhaustion; short positions can be opened above 81,000.
Basis:
1. 81,000–82,000 is near the 365-day moving average + previous supply wall + a key dense resistance zone repeatedly tested without effective breakthrough; high probability of breakout failure.
2. This round of rise mainly relies on short squeeze liquidations + elimination of election uncertainty, lacking sustained spot buying and ETF inflows; it is a corrective rebound, not a trend reversal.
3. With the Democratic Party controlling Congress, regulation may become stricter, a medium-term bearish factor.
4. Daily RSI is low, MACD still weak, prone to "false breakouts" followed by pullbacks.
5. The 77,000–80,000 range has concentrated position costs; surges easily trigger profit-taking and trapped position selling pressure.
6. The current rise is linked to stock market rebound and oil price decline; once macro sentiment cools, crypto is likely to correct first.
Operation advice:
It is recommended to open short positions at the 81,000–82,000 resistance level, targeting around 78,000–79,000; stop loss if breaking through 82,000 effectively, and if falling below 78,000, the target can be lowered to 76,000 Top 10 airdrops worldwide have crashed
$STRK says it will move from L2 to L1 in 2027
Can this move salvage the situation?