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I suddenly realized, after the past US midterm elections, when Bitcoin hit bottom and when it rebounded
2014: hit bottom after 71 days, then the market started to rise.
2018: hit bottom after 39 days, then the market started to rise.
2022: hit bottom after 13 days, then the market started to rise.
Yesterday, Bitcoin rose from $77,000 to around $81,000, then today it dropped to about $75,500. Technically, this is normal, possible, and not absurd.
2026: How many days do you think it will take to hit bottom before the market starts to rise?CORE Holders Self-Test: Can Your Position Withstand Another 70% Drop?
Many people buy the dip assuming "it has already dropped so much, the downside is limited," but CORE still has the potential for a significant further decline. It's worth asking yourself first: if the price drops another 70%, can you handle it?
❌ The Root Risks Remain Unresolved
Inflation pressure from token releases has persisted for 81 years, on-chain yields are hard to pass on to the token, the BTCFi sector is split between Babylon and Merlin, and liquidity is gradually shrinking. These core issues have no substantial solutions yet. A huge historical drop does not mean it can't fall further.
🎯 3 Self-Test Questions
1. If it drops another 70%, will this loss directly affect your living expenses? If yes, your position is too heavy and you need to reduce exposure immediately to avoid risk.
2. If the price continues to slowly decline or consolidate at the bottom over the next two to three years, can you hold on and resist the urge to keep buying the dip?
3. If exchanges further delist trading pairs and liquidity dries up, causing large sell orders to suffer massive slippage, can you accept the difficulty of exiting smoothly?
💡 Insight
Don't judge the bottom solely by the size of the drop. For tokens like this, the safest rule is: only invest money you can afford to lose entirely without concern. If you can't handle further deep declines, you shouldn't continue holding or adding to your position now. On November 5, a former FBI agent pleaded guilty to telecom fraud and money laundering. Prosecutors said he used wallet credentials collected during investigations to steal about $2.47 million in cryptocurrency.
What’s even more notable is the scope: these credentials involved 35 separate investigations, through which he completed about 100 fraudulent transfers. The affected wallets were not only those of suspects but also wallets controlled by hostile nation-state actors, as well as wallets the FBI itself created for operations. It wasn’t just money that was compromised, but multiple investigation leads, intelligence sources, and methods.
The mechanism is simple. Ownership of on-chain assets is essentially a set of credentials that can sign transactions. Whoever holds the credentials can transfer funds; there is no counter, no review, no second signature. KYC, risk control, and compliance checks guard against external accounts; once credentials leak internally, all these safeguards are bypassed. And on-chain transfers are irreversible, so by the time the theft is discovered, the assets are already elsewhere.
So this is not a vulnerability of any single platform but a common weak point of all centralized trust: when you entrust assets to a process, the people within that process become your actual custodians. The more valuable $BTC and $ETH become, the greater the temptation at this position.
One point to consider: he will be sentenced on March 4, 2027, with a maximum of 20 years. Accountability takes three years, but transferring $2.47 million only takes a few minutes. This speed gap is the hardest challenge for the industry to fix.Review of the timing patterns for bottoms during midterm election years
1. 2018 (rate hike cycle not yet ended)
Stage pre-election low: late October; the final true bottom was delayed until after the election (end of December)
2. 2022 (rate hike expectations marginally peaked)
Full-year bottom: mid-October (about 3 weeks before the election), bottom formed early, rebound confirmed after the election
1. If following the 2022-style pre-election bottom:
First a quick pullback, hitting a stage low in mid-October, then quickly stabilizing and rebounding
2. If following the 2018-style, October is only a stage low, the second wave of decline comes after the November election, and the lowest point of the year appears in December
Just a personal 💡 share~ Not investment advice
@八佰哥爱理财 Take a look at this… Preserving capital and holding on is the only chance. Why is it said that CORE being "neither dead nor alive" is the worst outcome?
Many people think: as long as it doesn't directly go to zero, there is still hope. But for holders, being stuck in a zombie state of neither dead nor alive for a long time is often more tormenting than a one-time crash to zero❌ A one-time crash to zero: the pain is instantaneous, investors can quickly accept the loss, cut their losses completely and exit, freeing both funds and emotions. But being neither dead nor alive is a prolonged drain: the chain still produces blocks, the token still has minimal trading, giving the illusion that "there is still hope for a reversal," yet the market never really recovers🎯 1 Funds are locked for a long time, opportunity cost is extremely high, with 81 years of continuous inflation releasing chips, combined with competitors continuously diverting funds, making it hard to have a big market move. Funds trapped in CORE miss other opportunities in the sector, draining year after year. 2 Liquidity slowly shrinks, exit barriers get higher and higher, trading volume becomes thinner and thinner, exchanges gradually delist trading pairs, and selling later will incur huge slippage. The longer it goes, the harder it is to get out, slowly evolving from "shallow losses" to completely having value but no market.
3 Constantly breeding illusions, repeatedly tempting retail investors to add positions and bottom-fish, because the project is not completely dead, occasional small rebounds and positive rumors appear, continuously luring holders to keep adding and lowering their cost basis, the more they add, the heavier the position, and losses keep expanding💡 What investors fear most is not a clear death signal, but this half-dead illusion. When the project's fundamentals cannot improve and inflationary selling pressure persists, relying only on the chain still running to support the market, beware of falling into a long-term zombie trap.Global markets just staged a rally that looked, on the surface, like relief at the removal of uncertainty. US equities, gold and $BTC all climbed together, and the easy explanation wrote itself: the bad news had become good news, and the world exhaled. That reading misses the mechanism entirely. The clearer signal came from JD Vance, who framed the defeat bluntly: the war was lost because conflict pushed oil prices higher and drove inflation up, a point he said even Trump acknowledged. Once markCORE's BTC staking is real, but the token being worthless is also true
Many retail investors are attracted by CORE's Bitcoin staking narrative, but there is a very critical disconnect here: the BTC staking business truly exists, yet this system does not transmit ecological value to the CORE token itself. ✅Fact: The Core chain has indeed implemented a non-custodial BTC staking function, allowing users to stake Bitcoin to earn returns. The BTC staking at the technical level is not false advertising, and this was the foundation for it to brand itself as BTCFi initially. 1 The value generated by staking 1 BTC is difficult to capture in the CORE token. Although staking CORE is required to obtain higher-tier staking rewards, the ecosystem's fees and staking income are not designed with a rigid mechanism for continuous repurchase and burning of CORE. 2 The token has a continuous release period of 81 years, with ongoing inflationary selling pressure continuously diluting holders' equity. Even if BTC staking is operating within the ecosystem, the supply pressure of new tokens exists long-term. 3 Competition in the sector intensifies, with Baby and Merl diverting a large amount of BTCFi funds; combined with liquidity shrinkage and some exchanges delisting trading pairs, this further suppresses the token price. A painful phenomenon: the on-chain BTC staking business is still running, but the market value of the CORE token continues to decline, resulting in a split scenario where the business is alive but the token keeps depreciating. When investing in narrative-driven projects, it is essential to distinguish: whether the project function is real ≠ whether the token has value support. The business can be real, but if the token economic model design is lackingSpot $BTC ETF has seen a cumulative net redemption of 1.042 billion in this round, with total net assets shrinking to 98.1 billion, showing a clear outflow on the ETF side.
Looking at the capital flow: Strategy bought 811 $BTC, spending 65.5 million; meanwhile, it repurchased preferred shares worth 208 million.
Calculating the net: 208 million minus 65.5 million, a net withdrawal of about 140 million. The scale of coin purchases is actually lower than the buyback.
This indicates that the treasury's increased holdings are more like position adjustments, not new external funds; sporadic buy orders cannot support the ETF outflow.
$BTC has been fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000, with weak support. To break through the 80,000 mark, sustained capital inflow is needed.
$BTC 风险资金在美元偏强的环境里依旧愿意冲进小币种博弈冲高，兑现盘却在 0.354 集中涌出，价格回落至 0.2655，日内最低探到 0.252，微弱的日内涨幅掩盖住这一波追高头寸的浮亏。美元走强和高弹性山寨币兑现之间存在长期被观测到的相关性，这条链条不能定义为因果驱动，它只是抬高风险资产的兑现阈值。资金在美元走强阶段会压缩投向题材币种的风险预算，这类标的上涨高度高度依赖持续涌入的增量热钱，外部流动性偏好收紧之后，高位筹码就更容易选择离场了结。套在高位的头寸想要迎来修复窗口，首先要看到美元走势转向宽松带来的环境改善，单一币种自身买盘很难独立对抗跨市场的风险收缩。 美债实际利率预期构成第二条跨市场传导路径，利率预期上行阶段，远期溢价资产的估值框架会持续压缩。CARDS 的定价承载大量题材叙事带来的远期溢价，对利率预期变动的敏感度会高于主流加密标的，利率预期只改变市场愿意支付的溢价水平，不是触发这一轮高点回落的直接诱因。利率预期往下修正的时候，市场愿意给到题材资产更高的估值空间，高位被套头寸才有机会借助风险偏好修复缩减亏损；利率预期继续抬升，每一轮反弹都会遇到更主动的兑现盘，反弹空间被持续压制。This morning I saw "Nasdaq 100 expected to lose $1.8 trillion," and my first reaction was: How can a single vote burn so much money out of thin air?
Then I realized, this money isn't actually in anyone's account; it's always been tied to the idea that "AI data centers will keep being built." Now someone is telling the market that this might not get approved, and once that thought loosens, the money disappears.
Every time $BTC drops, everyone looks for bad news, but in most cases, it turns out the expectation collapsed, not that someone actually dumped the market. Don't rush to bottom-fish yet; see if the $1.8 trillion is panic or a repricing.Many people skimmed past this breaking news: The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to lose $1.8 trillion today. What triggered this is not earnings reports or the Federal Reserve, but an expectation — a Democratic landslide victory that could hinder AI data center construction.
This statement deserves a closer look. The past two years of U.S. stock market gains have largely been bet on AI capital expenditures. Chips, servers, electricity, cooling, land — the entire chain is supported by the same phrase: computing power is never enough, data centers must always be built. The companies with the largest weights in the Nasdaq 100 have valuations that include this incremental growth.
So the $1.8 trillion lost is not profit, but imagination. What the market fears is the phrase "unable to build" — data centers are capital-intensive, long-cycle, and heavily regulated businesses. Where the power comes from, whether land permits are approved, whether environmental assessments pass — if any link is blocked, the capex curve must be revised downward. When capex is cut, valuations collapse first, not current earnings.
What does this mean for the crypto market? $BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq index fluctuates, but its relationship with risk appetite has never broken. When the AI narrative weakens, the first to suffer are altcoins and computing power tokens propped up by the AI concept; mainstream assets like $ETH and $SOL are more dragged down by liquidity, their own fundamentals remain intact.
One point worth considering: if AI data centers are truly blocked by political cycles, the premise of "computing power scarcity" will actually be reinforced. Short-term valuation cuts and long-term pricing are two different things; these are not contradictory, just different time scales.最脆弱的其实不是BTC，是那些看起来"跌不动了"的小票。 你确定那真的是底，而不是下一段下坡的起点？ 今天看盘时这种感觉特别明显：BTC和ETH至少还有大资金愿意在关键位接一下，而几个小市值品种的反弹，量能薄得像一层雾，风一吹就散。先说AKE，价格天天阴跌，每天跌一点，钝刀子割肉，但总有人觉得"跌这么多了该到底了"。问题在于，山寨真正的底部从来不是跌出来的，是买盘堆出来的。现在筹码被套得那么散，上方全是等着解套的人，谁来拉？拉上去给谁接？更别说还有被下架这种尾部风险悬着，盲目抄底在这种结构里性价比极低。 BEAT更有意思，高位横着，像在等人上车。这种形态确实容易让人想起之前拉高后横盘再动的剧本，但横盘本身不代表一定向上。如果下方挂着一堆抢反弹的单子，反而可能成为被砸穿的燃料。横盘是中性信号，不是看涨信号，这点很多人会混淆。 FOGO则是标准的下降趋势里冒出一根小反弹。跌了那么久，一根阳线就让人想冲，但更可能只是把追空的短线仓位洗掉，趋势反转的信号还没看到。 把这三个放一起看，其实能摸到资金偏好的变化：大票还有承接，小票只剩博弈。风险偏好收缩的时候，资金不会均匀地撒，而是往确定性更高的地I happened to see Brother Ba Bai's position, losing $3.81 million and still adding to the long positions. I think I understand this strategy now.
The account is indeed eye-catching: a cumulative loss of over $3.81 million, a return of -86.78%, and a win rate of only 10.9% in the last 30 days. At its peak, four accounts lost more than 30 million, and now they are slowly recovering.
The positions are heavily long, with three trades totaling $4.54 million. Two $BTC trades: the old position at 67701 has an unrealized profit of 375%, the new position at 77997 has an unrealized profit of 59%; one ETH trade at 2289 with an unrealized profit of 94%. Leverage ranges from 17 to 20 times, the margin rate is at least 943%, the liquidation price is empty, and the account is far from liquidation.
The idea is to buy on dips, buy more as the price falls, and split the positions. Not aiming for a high win rate, tolerating multiple losses, and relying on big trades to recover losses; the 67701 trade was picked up during a big drop and has been held until now.
Positioning sense and margin discipline are real skills. But the -86% also shows the old problem remains: from earning $1.59 million to losing $3.83 million, winning but not withdrawing, and giving back even more. There is also a BTC full position at 19x leverage, most afraid that a single spike could drag down the entire account.
The market also suits his style: BTC holding around 80000, $ETH recovering, SOL weaker, ZEC the most volatile. He only trades BTC and ETH, which is somewhat restrained. Tonight the Bank of England rate decision and initial jobless claims, tomorrow night the nonfarm payrolls; if it really crashes, he will most likely keep adding.
#索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ 一位交易者在$ETH上把均价从2300一路加到2343，却在2225的回落中选择死扛不砍，如今反弹回来仍被压着打，浮亏16万美元。更刺眼的是他的自白：不是不想跑，是不愿再补保证金继续加仓、被强平拖走。这句话把当下最真实的情绪摊开了——多头不是不怕，是怕到不敢动。😰 这里藏着一个被大多数人忽略的结构信号：真正的风险不是浮亏本身，而是仓位管理已经失效。2300建仓、2343加仓，成本被自己推高，2225该止损时没走，说明决策链条早已从“判断方向”滑向“对抗市场”。当交易者开始用“浮亏还好”安慰自己，往往意味着他已经在为下一次被迫离场做心理铺垫。$BTC 昨天没开空单被他称为“幸运”，恰恰暴露了同一个问题：两个仓位同时承压的剧本只差一步就上演。 更值得玩味的是他对$ZEC的处理。明明已经感觉市场不对、平掉了空单，却因为“量能没跟上”又重新做空，结果被卡住。这不是孤例，而是当前市场最典型的陷阱：用成交量当确认信号，却在流动性收缩的环境里被反复打脸。量能滞后于价格，等它“跟上”时，最好的位置已经没了。$ETH 的反弹之所以让人难受，正是因为空头和多头在同一段行情里互相消耗。 我的判断是，这类交Overnight, the US stock market closed up 1.6%, but semiconductors were under pressure against the trend: Micron, SanDisk, and Marvell all fell more than 7%, and Nvidia also followed down. On the surface, it looks like sector rotation, but behind it seems more like the market is repricing the "expansion speed" of AI infrastructure.
The trigger came from the US midterm elections. The Democrats won the Texas governor's race, and the new governor previously advocated pausing new data center approvals until a stricter regulatory framework is implemented. This means that a previously favorable assumption embedded in AI chip valuations—that tech giants would continue high capital expenditures and data centers would expand smoothly—is now facing political variables.
Pressure on power, water usage, and community capacity is shifting from engineering issues to election topics. The market's concern is not that existing computing demand will suddenly disappear, but that the approval pace for future incremental projects may slow and costs may rise. Projects already signed and under construction still have momentum, but the certainty of new investments is declining.
Therefore, this round of decline looks more like a discounting of the slope of AI infrastructure expansion rather than a collapse in computing demand. Going forward, focus should be on tech giants' capital expenditure guidance and the actual implementation of data center approvals in various states. The AI narrative is not over; the pricing focus is shifting from "how fast it can run" to "how stable it can run." #美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Brothers, today let's focus on the market changes of these three altcoins
$AKE: A rebound does not mean a reversal
Previously, the funding rate was negative, mainly due to excessive short positions, which suppressed the contract price. Some short positions were closed early this morning, causing the price to rebound. This is not an active buy by bulls, nor does it mean the whales are preparing to pump the price. The market is still bearish, so don't rush to bottom-fish
$MERL: Oscillating upward, temporarily on hold
The daily chart shows an overall oscillating upward trend. Currently, there is a pullback, with long positions floating a loss of $368,000, but there is no obvious increase in volume yet. For now, wait for the next direction
$BEAT: Balanced between bulls and bears, direction unclear
Currently, the long-short ratio is relatively even. Recklessly guessing the price movement is not cost-effective. It's safer to wait for the trend to develop before taking action rather than entering blindlyOvernight liquidation of 1.1 billion dollars, and I didn't run away
Last night before I went to bed, I checked BTC at over 78,000; this morning it was over 75,500.
Overnight, 200,000 people were liquidated.
In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 1.033 billion dollars, with 198,931 people forcibly closed out. In just 4 hours, 880 million was liquidated, with long positions accounting for more than 90%.
BTC dropped to a low of 75,558, ETH dipped to 2,237; it’s not just one coin falling, it’s the whole market.
US stocks crashed first. The Nasdaq plunged, led by chip stocks. After the Democrats' big win in the midterm elections, the market fears Congress will tighten AI regulations, so tech stocks sold off first, and BTC was sold off along with them.
There are two other things many people haven’t noticed yet.
One is Trump Media, which transferred 4,259 BTC to Crypto.com on November 5, worth 342 million dollars. The other is Keel Infrastructure, which sold all 2,520 BTC it held in Q3, cashing out 192 million dollars.
Whales are moving, retail investors are holding on, and leverage is blowing up. That was last night.
I didn’t open any positions last night. It’s not that I’m that good; after writing that article the day before yesterday, I said that in this market, chasing longs with leverage is just giving money to the market.
Tonight is the key.
At 21:30, the US October nonfarm payrolls will be released, expected to add 62,000 jobs, while September’s previous value was only 29,000. Today, there are also 2.65 billion dollars worth of BTC options expiring, with the biggest pain point at 79,000. Just watch two numbers: whether BTC can hold above 76,000 and 78,000.#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 ⚡ Tech sell-off + computing power regulation shock: BTC breaks 76,000, $1.1 billion in chained liquidations
All post-election gains wiped out overnight.
Why such a sharp drop?
AI computing power regulation black swan: After the election, Democrats control both chambers; NBC poll shows 76% of voters oppose community data centers, 33 out of 45 local referendums impose construction limits; Meta warns of stricter environmental rules for new projects, Goldman Sachs says big tech capital expenditures may be delayed until 2027. Tech stocks crashed first, crypto followed.
Election benefits fully priced in: Pre-election “Trump crypto bonus” discounted, regulatory uncertainty back on the table, institutions reducing positions.
Leveraged long positions liquidated in chain: $1.12 billion liquidated network-wide in 24h (longs $990 million), over 210,000 forced liquidations, price dropped from 78,767 to 75,986 in 1 hour, classic long squeeze.
Macro resonance: Nasdaq lost 200-day moving average, oil prices rebounded, real interest rates remain tight, risk assets deleveraging together.
Support: 75,700 → 73,000
Resistance: 79,100–79,600 → 81,200
Summary
Not the end of the bull market, but a triple kill pullback of “AI regulation expectations + election pricing shift + high leverage cleanup.” Computing power narrative under short-term pressure, AI concept altcoins first to fall; BTC has institutional support, but 80,000 becomes the new top, only reclaiming 79K counts as recovery.
Tech stocks fell due to “computing power delays,” crypto fell due to “leverage casualties.”State root miscalculation, cross-chain temporarily halted — this issue is not about token prices, but about ledger alignment.
The Reth execution client and its derivative client op-reth have been disclosed by the security agency Blockaid to have a state root calculation error, affecting several EVM blockchains including multiple OP Stack chains. Unpatched nodes may experience synchronization stalls or consensus inconsistencies, and LayerZero has suspended related cross-chain services.
This is judged as bearish for the infrastructure layer: the state root is the anchor point for ledger alignment between nodes; a miscalculation can cause nodes to go offline at best, or at worst, different nodes may reach different conclusions on the same batch of transactions, with cross-chain verification and message passing being the first to be impacted. For traders, this is not a bearish signal for any particular chain's token price, but a trust disruption for the OP Stack ecosystem and node operators relying on Reth; there is no clear short-term tradable token, so do not short ETH or OP series tokens based on this.
Two scenarios to observe: one is that nodes and platforms running Reth/op-reth upgrade to the fixed version and re-verify the state root; the other is that LayerZero and affected chains resume cross-chain operations, which may involve withdrawal delays or on-chain anomalies. Risk reminder: the impact of a client-level bug depends on upgrade coverage; unpatched nodes may still drag down network-wide consensus, so the speed of fixing is more important than the narrative.
Are you more concerned about upgrade coverage or the time to resume cross-chain operations?
Source: Wu Shuo#美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压 One-sided decline, heavy accumulation of bottom-fishing positions
During the decline, new buy orders continuously enter to support, many positions choose to hold and add, spreading the cost higher and higher.
When high-volatility small coins move one-sidedly, funds that keep taking over positions are easily consumed by the market; do not enter lightly without a stabilization signal.
Open the position list and verify
,
MU each order's stop-loss position.
$SNDK $MU $BTC Good map of the trap 👏 Most downside liquidity is cleared, but one pocket is still sitting below $75K — that's the level to watch. If it gets swept and $BTC reclaims $78,500, the path up gets much cleaner. $BTC support $75,000, resistance $77,770 then $80,000. Sweep first or bounce first? Comment $BTC Opened a 50x long position at 1450, added once at 1366, and added again at 1131 — $SNDK In my view, the last two add-ons are increasing risk. The real reference point is the wick on 7/30 that dipped to 972. I only bought 2.43u at 972 myself; with 4x leverage, that’s 9.72. Holding such a light position doesn’t mean I’m bearish; it’s just that 960.1 can’t really be considered a solid bottom. Going down to 860, 760, 660 is still within the realm of possibility. Before storage heated up, it was originally something worth just a few hundred.
Later at 900, 813, 734, 668, I will gradually buy in to lower the average price. Total principal is over 2200, currently invested less than 4u, with leverage it’s only 16u, which accounts for 0.73% of the total position.
Trying at round number levels is fine, at most one-tenth of the funds, and after leverage, don’t exceed 10%. I won’t change this rule.#RocketLabQ3Neutron These are very delicate times for $RKLB, but it just refuses to break down from $50 as the holder base is strong after a 70% decline from all-time highs.
Earnings are incoming too.
Hopeful but realistic that we can get lower.
In my mental model the market cap currently without Neutron producing any revenue till 2028 is around 20-30B and it has nothing to do with their finances but with the cost of replacement of their technology.$BTC fell back to 76,000 overnight. Yesterday, it was full of short squeeze rebounds and shorts got liquidated; today, it's completely reversed, and the main force being liquidated has switched to the longs.
More important than the price is this: crypto tonight is almost synchronously dropping with the Nasdaq. Many still treat BTC as a safe haven decoupled from the US stock market, but in days when the whole market is deleveraging, it and tech stocks are basically part of the same liquidity pool, both getting drained together.
True decoupling is when, even as everyone is selling risk assets, it can still chart an independent trend—that's what safe haven means. Clearly, that is not the case now.
Remember this: don’t bet on it suddenly decoupling when correlation is at its highest.Tonight, the US stock market is bleeding heavily, but there's a detail more honest than the indexes: Cloudflare, also labeled as a tech stock, rose nearly 20% after hours because its earnings report shows solid subscription cash flow; meanwhile, semiconductor stocks relying on burning cash to build AI capacity saw the Philadelphia index drop 12% in a single day, marking the worst day since March 2020.
This doesn't mean tech stocks as a whole are doomed; the market is finally starting to distinguish between who is running a real business and who is just telling AI stories.
In a bull market, all boats rise together, making it hard to tell the depth; when the tide recedes, you see which ones stand on cash flow and which ones hang by narratives. Now is the time of the tide going out. Which type does the stock in your hand belong to? Someone asked me again if I have closed my short position. I haven't; tonight, there's actually one more reason to add to it.
Iren just revealed: due to Microsoft's unilateral request for changes, the delivery date of the data center has been postponed, and no delay compensation will be paid. In plain language, the buyer is starting to hit the brakes.
My short position is never a bet on whether a chip manufacturer makes money or not—AMD's revenue is still doubling. What I'm betting on is the financing chain and demand side that fuel this AI arms race. As long as the buyer starts to delay and contract, the first to bleed in the entire chain will definitely be those upstream companies desperately ramping up capacity.
Financial reports reflect the past quarter, but the buyer's actions indicate the next few quarters. If you focus on the wrong place, even if the direction is right, you'll still get repeatedly slapped in the face.🔥🔥🔥 Election suspense settles, crypto first breaks down then V-shaped rebound
Last night the market was really focused on Washington, not the candlesticks. The Democratic Party took control of both houses of Congress, Trump is constrained, BTC first fell below 76,000, then V-shaped pulled back to 80,500; ETH rose more than 6% simultaneously, recovering to 2,430 USD.
The core is not "who wins," but "uncertainty disappears." After the result settles, safe-haven positions are replenished; checks and balances limit fiscal expansion, US Treasury yields fall, risk assets overall ease pressure, the S&P rises, gold breaks 4,000, crypto rebound is just part of liquidity repricing.
But don’t mistake the rebound for a bull return. The underlying tone this time is still derivatives and sentiment: spot ETFs continued outflows before the election, Binance turmoil aftershocks remain; 82,000 BTC and 2,450 ETH are clear selling pressure zones; regulatory "Clear Act" resistance increases, Warren heads the banking committee, compliance narrative tightens short term.
So right now it looks more like a "bearish exhaustion style repair." If spot volume above 80,000 cannot hold, the rebound easily becomes leverage’s wedding dress. Going forward, focus on the sustainability of US stocks and whether ETFs flow back, more useful than election gossip.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH 昨天晚上，市场迎来了史无前例的大暴跌，和前天晚上形成了鲜明的对比，不知道明天晚上会怎样？ 在过去24小时，$BTC 下跌了5.13％，$ETH 下跌了7.41％，$SNDK 下跌了22.5％，简直是血流成河。 这其中，闪迪这种跌幅，我只能说太夸张了，一个千亿美金市值的公司，居然能像山寨一样跌。 不过，这对于我来说是好事，因为我最近这段时间一直看空，下跌对我来说是可以赚钱的。 但是我现在有点遗憾，因为我做空的期权平仓平早了，如果现在平仓的话。我能够多赚四五百美金。 现在分析数据感觉没什么用，数据显示是有很多资金在做多，但是我觉得现在不能做多，现在宁愿观望也不能做多。 我个人觉得，现在有点像特朗普关税那一波，因为性质还是挺像的，都是因为突然的利空。 关税是因为特朗普加的太多，这一次是因为民主党赢的太彻底，这都是超出市场预期的，所以才会跌成这个样子。 特朗普会因为市场下跌退缩，民主党会因为市场下跌退缩吗？ 我觉得是有可能的，因为民主党背后也是有金主的。 我个人觉得，现在市场就是一哭二闹三上吊，你民主党如果一直阻碍数据中心建设，那大家就一起完蛋吧。 如果单单看闪迪的走势，昨天应该算是一哭，今天Core CPI in September remained at 0.3% for two consecutive months with structural diffusion; housing and super-core services provide bottom support. Tariff pass-through may not be fully over, and the Fed's hawkish response also confirms inflation stickiness. Your position is not without hope, but it requires a set of data combinations where multiple subcomponents cool down simultaneously against the current trend, and the October data will not be released until November 10."Don't just look at the K-line, check the chip table first (ง •̀_•́)ง"
Top old money talked about Hyperliquid last week when the market was all green, but HYPE bucked the trend, surging over 11%, with sentiment maxed out ✨. However, on November 6, 9.92 million core contributor tokens will unlock linearly, worth about $760 million at current prices; the 46.1 million AF tokens, though considered burned, should not be confused with this. You can't just pretend not to see the selling pressure (｡•́︿•̀｡).
ASTER feels more like a hidden threat: total supply 8 billion, circulating 2.508 billion, only 37.21% unlocked. The team’s share will increase from 0.5% to 11.6%, plus 36.3% staking emissions yet to be released, with Stage 6 claims open until November 28. The 0.09% circulating supply unlocking on November 29 seems minor, but the real risk is the team’s chips. The mechanism is aggressive, chip structure uncertain, so don’t rush to bottom-fish during the claim window (￣▽￣;).
UNI is cleaner: no large unlocks, fee reform enables a burn flywheel, fees directly burn UNI, and v4 aggregation Hook continues to expand revenue. $7 is in the undervalued range (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
For DeFi blue chips alike, income, buybacks, and burns are only half the story; the other half is watching the pace of subsequent chip releases. The risk-reward ratio often hides in the unlock schedule 🔍.
$HYPE $ASTER $UNI History rhymes 👏 After every midterm election, $BTC dropped hard — 2014 -58%, 2018 -52%, 2022 -26% — then found a bottom and bounced strong. This time is different: the driver is AI regulation fear + a possible Dec hike. Support $75,000 must hold, resistance $78,500 then $80,000. Does history repeat? Comment 👇 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trending #OKXOrbit$BTC $SOXL 。
#TradingPath
Why SNDK (SanDisk) keeps not rising
SNDK is purely a storage stock, betting on the continuous price increase of NAND flash and the explosion of AI storage demand.
Now the market expectation has shifted from "continuous price increase" to "price increase slowing down," which means its core bullish logic is loosening.
Even if the semiconductor market (NVIDIA, AMD, etc.) stabilizes or even rebounds, storage might still be weak alone and underperform SOXL.
This means: the overall trend will move in the same direction, but the sub-sectors will diverge.
SOXL: is a basket of semiconductors (NVIDIA, equipment, CPU, storage all bundled), with elasticity following the sentiment of the entire sector;
SNDK: bets on the storage cycle, its fate tied to flash prices and major manufacturers' guidance, and when there is independent negative news, it will fall behind alone.
After the US market opens tonight, watch for these two points:
✅ If NVIDIA and AMD are rising, but only Micron, SNDK, and Western Digital are falling → this means storage alone is negative, indicating sector internal differentiation, and SOXL's drag is limited;
✅ If NVIDIA also falls sharply → it is a sentiment sell-off across the entire tech and semiconductor sector, then SOXL and SNDK will fall together.I really misread the situation last night 😅 I originally thought each party would hold one chamber, but unexpectedly the Democrats took both houses, and the blue wave came decisively. I admit this misjudgment.
$BTC reacted very directly: the news first pushed it down to 75700, forcing shorts to cover, and with uncertainty clearing out, the price pulled back to 80000. In the short term, it doesn't care who wins; it gets scared first, then moves at its own pace; after the short squeeze, the rebound follows 📈
But in the long run, you can't just watch the spectacle. Originally, we expected the Republicans to push friendly bills like CLARITY, but now with the Democrats fully in control, regulatory clarity is likely to be shelved. Real legislation and regulation will have to wait until the new Congress takes office in January, and the direction is still leaning toward stricter ⚠️
Price is noise; policy is the signal. Short term is a tug of war between bulls and bears; long term is set by regulation. But no matter who is in power, loose or tight, BTC has endured Mentougou, FTX, and rounds of enforcement, and has come back in the end. The resilience remains 💪#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 A cold splash of water for everyone early this morning: volume surged, but did the positions keep up?
The total network volume increased by 10.62%, but the total positions only moved by 0.76%. Volume rises without position follow-through—I’m here to pour a bucket of cold water first. Volume surges are the easiest to deceive; volume is just the echo of yesterday’s excitement, while positions represent the real money stance right now. Don’t be fooled by volume. 😤
This volume data is like a rearview mirror: ETH volume surged 30.59%, the hottest in the market, but ZEC volume dropped 21.90%. The heat and cold are not on the same line at all. ETH is heating up intensely, ZEC is cooling down fastest. On the same chart, the heat difference is over fifty points. One is charging up, the other cooling down. This isn’t divergence; it’s each going their own way.
The core variable is positions: 24-hour positions for four coins show BTC unchanged, ETH up 4.02%, SOL up 0.54%, ZEC up 0.47%. Except for ETH, no one really added positions. Without position follow-through, even a big volume surge is just turnover. BTC market share is 60.12%, money is still revolving in BTC hands, not expanding outward. 😅
The network long-short ratio is 49.28 to 50.72, almost even; fear and greed at 51 stuck at neutral, no one is panicking or greedy. This market is just grinding, waiting, grinding until Friday night’s nonfarm payroll release.
Friday night’s nonfarm payroll expectation is an increase of 59,000 to 65,000. I only note the expectation, not guessing the actual value. Volume is virtual, positions are real. Until positions catch up, I won’t move. Not moving isn’t bearish; it’s waiting for a true signal. Before positions nod, no matter how big the volume surge, I just see it as noise. 🔒- 0127, this number is more honest than any slogan. Why did CORE's shorts dare to press down all the way from 0.0175 to 0.0127 before stopping? Last night when reviewing CORE's daily chart, what struck me most was not the continuous bearish candles, but that the MACD bullish divergence actually failed. Divergence is supposed to give confidence to bottom buyers, yet the price didn't even respect the so-called iron bottom at 0.0116. After the election results and the clear attribution of the two chambers, these small-cap coins did not receive the expected support; instead, the lack of narrative support was exposed even more thoroughly. When the rebound reached above 0.015, some continued to short, indicating that the market is not trading on "oversold will recover" but rather on "who will take this unclaimed position." Looking at the bigger picture, the sector's strength has already given the answer: mainstream assets like BTC and ETH act more like anchors of risk appetite during event windows, with funds preferring certainty; the problem with coins like CORE is not the decline itself, but that they cannot present a continuing story. Event catalysts did not translate into buying pressure; instead, they became opportunities for shorts to add positions. This means the pricing path has changed—from "expected rebound" to "rebound equals supply." The bullish logic is not entirely absent: after extreme overselling, short covering is likely; if volume increases and stops the fall near 0.0116, a short-term rebound to the 0.014 range is not surprising. But this is an opportunity at the rhythm level, not evidence of a trend reversal. The real unseen risk is,#IREN mining company transforms into AI cloud services, GPU delivery progress to be revealed #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
Brothers, the boot has dropped. The Democrats have taken control of both chambers, but for the crypto world, this is definitely a midterm bearish signal.
This means the Senate Banking Committee will most likely be headed by Warren, who is famously known as an "anti-crypto hardliner." The CLARITY Act that everyone was hoping for is basically dead, and future regulatory crackdowns will only get harsher.
Looking back at the market moves, it was all a setup. Previously, Bitcoin played the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" game based on the election results, forcing a short squeeze up to 81,199. And the result? Regulatory clouds overshadowed everything, funds refused to acknowledge it, and there was a brutal washout back down to 75,511. The current price is hovering around 76,341 catching its breath.
From a technical perspective: the 15-minute MACD shows a golden cross at the bottom, indicating a short-term oversold rebound and repair demand. But the SuperTrend is firmly suppressing at 77,300, so the trend remains bearish.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动
$ZEC
I studied ZEC carefully today. Compared to ETH and BTC, the drop range of ZEC is actually not that large. The main reason should be that the previous batch of short sellers got stuck inside and didn't leave, causing ZEC to remain high.Long and short showdown: one person's liquidation is another person's ATM
On the same candlestick chart, two traders with opposite directions have completely different fates.
Big Brother Maji increased his ETH long position to 7,200 coins, worth $17.47 million, 25x full margin, entry price 2366, liquidation price 2391. The liquidation price is actually higher than the entry price—this means the market left almost no room for error. The market showed no mercy, and the long position was precisely liquidated. This is not his first fall, nor will it be the last: he was liquidated eight times consecutively within the previous six hours, and his account once had only $1.5 left.
The opponent is another big player. The largest position is also ETH, but the direction is short: 6,430 coins, worth about $15.6 million, 25x full margin, average entry price 2294, liquidation price 6532. This short position contributed more than 60% of his total unrealized profit. One was repeatedly harvested at the liquidation price, while the other made the short position his main source of profit.
What is truly intriguing is $CORE. This token fell from a high of $6.14 to around $0.02, a nearly 99.8% retracement. There is a saying in the community: if you had shorted $CORE from its listing until now, you would have gotten rich long ago. The same "dogged spirit" applied to ETH longs results in repeated zeroing out, but applied to $CORE shorts tells a different story.
Sometimes direction is deadlier than leverage, and even more brutal than direction is persisting with the right obsession on the wrong asset. Big Brother Maji has won big again this round!
He is going long while rolling his positions, increasing from over 2,000 contracts to nearly 6,700 contracts with 25x leverage. The latest average price is 2366, with unrealized profits exceeding $460,000, and the liquidation price has been pushed up to 2391.
Big Brother is confident and continues to add positions, but I remain cautious about the short-term trend and tend to set short positions around 2450.
The logic is simple: the rally after the election results is more like short covering after the boot drops rather than a trend reversal. ETH faces obvious resistance around 2450, with limited upside space. With the Democrats controlling Congress, regulatory expectations are tightening, making it difficult for institutional funds to flow back in large scale in the short term. The high-leverage long positions clustered at this level may instead become fuel for subsequent market moves.
I do not recommend chasing longs. The current rebound space is smaller than the downside risk. Those holding long positions can consider taking profits in batches or moving stop losses up near the cost line.
Trading idea: try shorting ETH on a rebound to 2450-2480, or follow the trend to short if it breaks below 2350. Set stop loss above 2500. For short-term take profit, first target 2391 (Maji’s liquidation price), then further down to the 2300-2250 range.
Market sentiment has warmed somewhat, but it is important to recognize the nature of this rebound and the potential regulatory pressure. The concentration of high-leverage long positions means that once sentiment weakens, a pullback could come quickly.BTC and ETH Options Snapshot: Positions Lean Bullish, Short-Term Trading Favors Bears
The latest options data is out, showing a clear divergence between BTC and ETH open interest and intraday trading. Long-term positions lean bullish, but recent trading activity is more bearish.
For BTC options open interest, call options total 257,900 BTC, accounting for 57.9%; put options total 187,500 BTC, accounting for 42.1%, indicating a bullish dominance in existing holdings. However, switching to 24-hour trading volume, the situation reverses: put options traded 55,800 BTC, making up 51.03%, showing short-term funds prefer protective bearish positions.
ETH shows even more pronounced divergence. Existing call options amount to 1,636,500 ETH, nearly 60%, reflecting strong long-term bullish holdings. Yet in 24-hour trading, put options traded 517,900 ETH, accounting for 56.22%, indicating short-term funds are buying puts to hedge against downside risk.
In simple terms, large holders still bet on upside in their base positions, but short-term funds are starting to hedge, anticipating a pullback. This structure often suggests the market is likely to enter a consolidation phase, with intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears, making a swift one-sided trend difficult to emerge. Why is $BTC still falling despite such good employment data? Let's talk about the method first, not the conclusion.
Good data should be viewed through transmission, not as good or bad. Strong employment → The Fed has no reason to ease. The probability of a rate hike in December rises, so risk assets fall first.
Initial jobless claims are about 189,000, lower than the expected 195,000 to 197,000. The lowest since 1969. $BTC is around $76,300, down about 4.6% in one day. $ETH is around $2,258, down about 6.3% in one day. $SOL is around $90.08, down about 4.7% in one day.
60-minute liquidations are about $370M. $BTC fell below $77,000. $ETH fell below $2,300. The non-farm payrolls tonight are the next step. The expectation is an increase of about 62,000, with an unemployment rate of about 4.2%. First, look at non-farm payrolls and rate hike probability, not the data's goodness or badness itself.Institutions are finally seriously studying BTC, but they still haven't dared to confidently hold large positions!
JPMorgan Asset Management has included BTC in its long-term return forecast for the first time, with a baseline scenario projecting an annualized return of about 10% over the next decade, even higher than some of its expectations for gold and U.S. stocks.
But don't just focus on this number; institutions also point out that BTC's volatility is too high and its correlation with other assets is unstable, which remains a barrier to allocation.
Looking at the market, the big players, the slow aristocrats, and SOL are all rebounding today, with ETH performing even stronger, indicating some recovery in risk appetite.
My understanding is: institutions have recognized BTC's long-term value, but in the short term, they are still observing risks and liquidity. Being optimistic long-term does not mean blindly buying now.
Don't treat long-term forecasts as short-term signals; watch volume for breakouts and support for pullbacks.
Personal market record sharing, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 A rather dull-named stablecoin is quietly growing on Arbitrum.
Data disclosed on November 6 shows that USDG on GMX rose from about $1.5 million in early October to nearly $17 million, nearly 10 times in less than a month.
USDG is not a new face; what has changed is its usage. The increase comes from two sources: USDG accessing the GM pool and also the GMX Dollar Vault. The former is the counterparty for perpetual trading, and the latter is the protocol's revenue treasury. It has transformed from "idle dollars" to "working dollars."
The significance lies not in the numbers but in the position. The GM pool covers trading in the $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL markets, and the assets in the pool are the counterparties to traders. The willingness of stablecoins to stay here indicates that someone is willing to lock dollars on-chain to earn fees rather than moving them back and forth.
My judgment is somewhat neutral: this is infrastructure-type money, not speculative funds; it comes slowly but is not easily withdrawn overnight. $17 million is still very small in the entire stablecoin market; what it proves is that a path has been established, not that the scale has already grown.
What is truly worth considering is the next phase: if this number continues to rise in December, it indicates that the demand for perpetuals on Arbitrum is returning; if it stays at $17 million, then this wave is just a few treasuries adjusting their positions. The most dangerous move on the chessboard is when you should clearly sacrifice the queen to launch an attack, but instead you choose to exchange rooks for a draw — this is exactly the miscalculation in the Anthropic IPO pricing debate. The gap between $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion and $2 trillion is not just numbers; it’s like a player suddenly realizing in the endgame evaluation that the opponent’s king has quietly approached your passed pawn. While the market focuses on valuation, I see a classic midgame-to-endgame problem: Q3 revenue surged 1127% year-over-year to $16.956 billion, which is the spatial advantage gained by sacrificing a pawn in the opening; but the quarter-over-quarter growth rate dropped sharply from 144% to 47%, indicating the opponent has completed piece coordination and your attack has hit an iron wall.
An operating loss of $567 million — is this a voluntary sacrifice or a forced loss? Look at the subsequent moves: long-term compute and lease commitments of $895.4 billion, of which about $69.8 billion matures within 12 months — this is not a pawn sacrifice, it’s putting all the rooks on the queen’s wing at stake, while the pawn structure in front of the king is already cracked. The ticking clock of time panic is right at the 12-month mark. A grandmaster doesn’t just look one move ahead; can revenue growth convert into sustained profitability? This is equivalent to asking whether the passed pawn can promote; the key is not the pawn itself, but whether you can clear obstacles before the opponent’s king approaches. Anthropic holds the heavy cannon of compute commitments, but heavy artillery needs ammunition and a carriage; operating losses indicate ammunition is still being consumed. If the passed pawn cannot be pushed to the seventh rank within 12 months, the $895.4 billion commitment will become stacked and isolated pawns, locking all maneuvering space. The linked asset’s price movement resembles the silence before a tactical combination; the market is waiting for the bidder to make a move. The $1.5 trillion valuation institutions are using endgame thinking for the exchange: preferring less profit but not giving up initiative. The $2 trillion asking price is a blind move driven by time panic.
A true chess player calculates only one thing in the endgame: who forces a draw first, who delivers the first kill. Anthropic’s sequence of moves is clear — trading high growth for time, trading commitments for compute, but the debt maturing in 12 months is a looming checkmate threat. If Q4 quarter-over-quarter declines again, this game will be a classic case of advantage turning to defeat: superficially leading in pieces, but the king’s fortress is wide open. The winning or losing move in this game is not in the valuation numbers, but in the 12-month countdown — who completes the king’s safe transfer first — and Anthropic’s pawn structure already tells me it hasn’t found that king-rook castling move yet. #anthropicipopricedebateThree candlesticks slammed down, and $1.158 billion in ETF funds seeped out like mud from the foundation cracks, while Wall Street’s veteran strategists for the first time included Bitcoin in the 2027 long-term structural blueprint — this is not reinforcement, it’s the chief engineer finally signing off on the underground load-bearing layer, but the construction crew is pulling down the scaffolding overnight. An annualized 10%, 55% volatility, and about 33% correlation with stocks that is highly unstable — these three numbers in the structural calculation report are typical of “foundation has potential, but geological survey data is too scattered.” The real bottleneck is not the expected return, but the correlation, this “geological fault parameter” that fluctuates unpredictably, causing Bitcoin to still be excluded from the covariance matrix of mainstream asset allocation — simply put, no matter how tall your building is, if the pile coordinates change three times a day, no serious structural model dares to weld it into the main load-bearing system.
My professional habit is to analyze projects in three layers — the white paper is the rendering, fund inflows are the concrete pouring speed, and correlation stability is the geological bearing capacity. The first two can be boosted by marketing and sentiment, but if the third fails, the whole building is a sky garden suspended over a sand layer. JPM raised the 10-15 year yield assumption from 7.5% to 10%, which is like upgrading the seismic resistance level in the revised code for this land, but 55% volatility means structural deflection far exceeds what conventional frame-shear systems allow, and 33% stock correlation is like an unconsolidated settlement joint — 38 degrees today, 18 degrees tomorrow, where do you anchor the shear wall? Not to mention that XPL, a tokenized US stock-like asset linked with BTC, is essentially two different geological units forcibly connected by a corridor, with inconsistent settlement rates at both ends; it looks good now but is a stress concentration point in the long term.
The real institutional-level allocation logic is the same as when I review super high-rise blueprints: first check if the foundation survey report has stable data for over ten years, then see if the load-bearing components can remain elastic under rare earthquakes, and only then discuss the facade aesthetics. Bitcoin is stuck at the first step — it’s not that it lacks ambition to become a main structure, but the geological parameters are still in flux. Any attempt to forcibly fit it into the asset allocation covariance matrix is equivalent to building a tower directly on quicksand. The three consecutive ETF outflows are the builders voting with their feet: no matter how beautiful the blueprint, once the mud pump stops, water flows back into the foundation. XPL is an even more typical linked asset; it hangs on the curtain wall system outside the main structure, and when the main building shifts laterally, it reacts first. Institutional investors’ tolerance for curtain walls has always been zero.
I have seen too many projects with glamorous renderings die because of insufficient concrete grade and incomplete geological data. Bitcoin’s long-term design blueprint has just been stamped by JPM, but the mud pump on the site is pumping water out. Whether a project can stand up has never depended on the expected height on the blueprint, but on whether the bottom pile has been driven into the bearing layer — and the core rock samples of that bearing layer are still shaking in the lab. #jpmbtclongtermforecastThe risk pressure over the Strait of Hormuz dropped nearly nine hectopascals overnight due to a political cold front. Brent crude plummeted 8.67% in a single day to $94.62, and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8.3% to $88.12. This was not an ordinary correction but a typical forced liquidation of war premium — the most crowded "blockade continues" scenario in the consensus forecast was simultaneously weakened by Washington and Tehran.
From the weather map perspective, the US midterm election results resemble a high-latitude cold air mass moving south. Vance attributes the Republican losses to the Iran war, while the Democrats call for peace; Trump says there are no new strike plans, and Qatar continues to mediate. The market immediately lowered the extreme precipitation probability of a "Hormuz closure," and oil prices and pressure lines retreated eastward overall. But note, the peace expectation is just a jet stream; the surface pressure field has not been fully rebuilt: Iran still demands lifting the blockade and sanctions, no agreement has been reached, and there is still wind shear in the boundary layer of the strait's navigation. Political pressure can change short-term circulation but may not immediately open the waterway locked by mines, insurance, and military patrols.
For the US stock tokenized asset $XPL, this round of crude oil risk repricing is like a transoceanic teleconnection. The oil price decline lowers inflation expectations, risk appetite briefly brightens, and buying interest in tokenized stock markets increases; but if another "forecast deviation" occurs in Hormuz, the risk cyclone will quickly drain liquidity. Currently, it resembles the brief eye of a typhoon before landfall: light wind and rain stopping does not mean the eyewall has disintegrated. The focus is not on political slogans but on actual strait navigation volume, insurance costs, and sanction exemption sounding data. If these three do not improve simultaneously, the clear skies in oil prices are just a false sunny day under a high-altitude cold vortex. #oilwarriskrepricingThe Nasdaq connection is important here because it puts the sell-off into a broader macro context. Crypto wasn't selling off in isolation. When tech stocks come under pressure, BTC often feels it too, especially when leverage is already elevated.
The $370M in long liquidations within an hour explains how quickly that pressure escalated. ETF inflows can provide some demand, but they cannot immediately offset aggressive forced selling in the derivatives market.$SNDK Do you all not understand why SanDisk is falling? Let me tell you, it's because the profits of the leading AI companies are too low, and these top AI companies are cutting back on their AI capital expenditures. Who are SanDisk and Micron's biggest customers? Undoubtedly, it's these AI companies now. Since these leading companies are cutting their AI capital expenditures, I ask you, who are SanDisk and Micron selling their products to? If fewer products are sold, won't sales decline? If sales decline, won't they have to rush ahead?Same rise, different chips: $BTC, $XRP — who is really "rising"?
Both rose about 4%–5% in 24 hours, but their chip structures are completely different.
BTC: Strong price, loose chips. $80,669.90, up 4.93%, RSI 71.47 overbought, MACD golden cross above zero, price close to 24-hour high. But large holders ratio 0.56, bears occupy 64%, and after a 6.88% increase in positions over 24 hours, there was a 2.80% withdrawal in 8 hours and another 0.70% reduction in nearly 3 hours. Early additions and recent withdrawals show clear short-term tug-of-war. Volume ratio 4.22, volume in the last hour 1.3 times higher, liquidations evenly split between longs and shorts. The rise is real, but the risk of chasing highs is also accumulating.
XRP: Moderate rise, structure is weak. $1.3071, up 4.65%, RSI 59.78, MACD death cross but DIF still above zero line, price near the middle band. Positions increased 1.59% in 24 hours, 2.33% in 8 hours, and decreased 1.58% in nearly 3 hours. One-hour three crows, 15-minute three crows plus bearish engulfing, 5-minute three soldiers plus long lower shadow. Retail ratio 2.94 biased long, this wave looks more like retail absorption. Still 2.61% below the 24-hour high, today's pullback is worth noting.
#美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权