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Latest Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Data Summary (Released November 6)
New Nonfarm Payrolls: +165,000 (market expectation about 62,000–65,000, previous value revised to +60,000), far exceeding expectations, more than three times the 12-month average (about 48,000). Strong employment → Fed rate hike expectations rise → real interest rates/treasury yields increase → USD strengthens.
Cryptocurrencies, as risk assets/zero-yield assets, face higher opportunity costs and tighter liquidity environment, leading to short-term pressure.
ETH price was pressured before and after the data release: it had already dropped sharply on November 5 due to tech stock sell-off (intraday low around 2200–2210), and after the release, it continued to fluctuate between 2200–2250, roughly around 2230 for the day, down about 7–8% (from the November 4 high). Bitcoin weakened in sync to around $75,000.Good nonfarm data does not mean the market will fall
Nonfarm data will be released tonight at 9:30, and many people are already waiting for a drop.
Data exceeds expectations: rate hike expectations heat up:
This is just a probability being repriced, not actual money being withdrawn.
Last night's drop: selling was based on expectations:
The bill is still just a proposal, and whether it will be implemented is uncertain.
Prices moved first because some people don't want to wait for the decision.
At the moment the data is released, the first moves are pending orders, not judgments.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#$HYPE This is the latest liquidation data at 6:30 this morning, with some important changes compared to yesterday's 1.2 billion figure.
Total volume plummeted: 355 million USD liquidated in 24 hours, burying 99,000 people. Yesterday it was still 1.256 billion and 238,000 people; overnight, the liquidation scale shrank by two-thirds. The largest single liquidation was on Binance ETH, at 2.87 million, much smaller than yesterday's 10.93 million.
Structure changed: overall, longs still account for 73.2% of 24-hour liquidations, but look at the recent 1-hour and 4-hour data — 5.74 million liquidated in 1 hour, with shorts liquidated at 4.7 million; 13.55 million liquidated in 4 hours, with shorts liquidated at 9.15 million. This means shorts have started getting liquidated in the past few hours.
What does this indicate? BTC had a rebound near 74,762, liquidating those who chased shorts. After yesterday's plunge below 75,000, some chased shorts, but when the price rebounded, shorts were the first to be liquidated.
Coin distribution: BTC liquidations totaled 108 million, longs accounting for 81.4%, still green; ETH liquidations were 60.23 million. But ZEC and SOXS are red (shorts liquidated), indicating these two small coins rebounded last night.
The liquidation scale shrinking from 1.2 billion to 350 million indicates the most intense long-on-long liquidation phase is over. But don't celebrate too early — shorts being liquidated in the 1-hour and 4-hour windows may be a slight rebound caused by thin weekend liquidity, not a trend reversal.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK #NebiusAI cloud business rapid growth faces earnings test
$NBIS Q3 revenue beat probability is about 75%, but GAAP profit (EPS) beat probability is only 35%–45%.
Revenue side likely to pass: Q3 consensus is about $905 million. The core driver is that capacity deployed at the end of Q2 only started contributing revenue in Q3; the existing $3 billion ARR as of June 30 is sufficient to support this, representing "catch-up" growth rather than relying solely on new incremental revenue.
Profit side looks bleak: Q3 GAAP loss consensus is between -$0.71 and -$0.83, a significant deterioration from last quarter's -$0.12. The rapid expansion of GPU clusters caused depreciation, amortization, and activation costs to spike, directly hitting the income statement.
But the real decisive factor is not in these numbers, but in financing. Citibank just lowered the target price, clearly stating "investors' focus is entirely on financing." The company faces a huge $18 billion funding gap next year; if beating revenue comes at the cost of large-scale equity issuance (dilution), no matter how good the numbers look, the market will vote with its feet.At 06:06 AM, Circle's minting address minted 250 million USDC on Solana. This is not existing supply moved over by a cross-chain bridge; it is newly minted supply from zero, valued at about 250 million USD.
This distinction is crucial. Bridges transfer existing supply without changing the total; minting adds new supply, increasing the total stablecoin supply. USDC Treasury directly executing the mint means there are equivalent reserve assets added on the books.
So why does the market focus on the chain rather than just the numbers? Because the chain where the newly minted stablecoins land often indicates where they will go next. $USDC on Solana mainly flows to trading and market making. After this 250 million lands, it will either become DEX order book depth, collateral in lending protocols, or quietly sit in some wallet waiting to be used. These three destinations have completely different implications for $SOL.
But don’t overhype the minting. It’s very common for the next step after minting to be redemption or cross-chain transfer to another network, meaning the coins might leave Solana the same day. So looking at a single minting record alone can’t determine bullish or bearish sentiment; you need to also observe changes in on-chain balances.
The real point to consider is: if this 250 million remains in Solana contracts a week later, that counts as a solid liquidity injection; if it’s just passing through, it’s merely a breath on the ledger.ETF outflows and contract liquidations are two types of selling pressure; don't confuse them as one figure
On November 5, BTC ETF net outflows were approximately $430.2 million; at 12:35 UTC, the four exchanges reported $BTC perpetual 24-hour liquidations of about $223.55 million. The former represents net redemption of fund shares, while the latter is the notional value of forced liquidation orders, with completely different statistical methods. Both being negative simultaneously indicates compounded pressure, but they cannot simply be added together as "capital outflow."
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 BTC is currently trading around $76,300, with a 1-hour candlestick dropping from 78,279 to 75,511. The entire network saw liquidations totaling $560 million, of which $530 million were long positions. Technically, the short-term structure has broken, but the long-term anchor points remain. The price has fallen below the 7-day SMA at 77,500, the 20-day SMA at 79,754, and the 50-day SMA at 82,047, turning all three short-term moving averages into resistance, while the 200-day SMA at 73,241 is still below. The RSI is weak, ranging between 37.62 and 51, not yet entering extreme oversold territory; the MACD fast and slow lines are converging at -1,396, with the histogram returning to zero, indicating a pause in downward momentum but no reversal signal. 75,563 is the last intraday defense line; if the daily close breaks below it, 74,880 and 73,677 will be tested sequentially. To recover upward, the price must first reclaim the EMA50 at 78,653. On the news front, ETFs are undergoing systemic withdrawals, and whales are selectively pulling back. The US spot BTC ETF has seen a net outflow of about $1.1 billion in the past 7 days, with IBIT being the main source of withdrawals. The $74.6 million inflow on November 4 was just a pause in weeks of bleeding. A dormant address that previously sold 5,699 BTC near $89,000 withdrew 3,009 BTC from Binance between $75,000 and $76,000 on November 6, worth about $228 million — but this only covered half of the prior sales, representing partial replenishment, not new funds. The non-farm payroll report is about to be released, with the probability of a rate hike in December between 72% and 82%. Brothers, good morning, I am Siqing.
Weekend trash time, ZEC is stuck around 1332 drawing a door, 67% of retail investors are frantically shorting. But if you only focus on the 15-minute candlestick, you'll miss what's truly important this week.
First, look at the macro, two heavy blows.
The first blow, midterm elections. The Democrats swept both the House and Senate, the market's first reaction was panic over tighter regulation, what does this mean? It means that for a period of time, policy uncertainty will repeatedly suppress risk assets.
The second blow, once the non-farm payroll data came out, expectations for a December rate hike were directly pushed up. The Fed is now focused on inflation, not employment, this report will only give them more confidence to keep rates high.
The macro is draining liquidity, that's a fact.
But on ZEC's micro side, something mostly overlooked is happening.
From November 5 to 6, ZEC's NU7 upgrade was officially activated, confirming speed increased threefold, payment experience directly leveled up. At the same time, the original privacy pool Sprout was permanently closed, about 12,224 ZEC are frozen on-chain, these coins still count towards circulating supply but can never be sold.
Gray funds and privacy narrative.
Grayscale's ZEC ETF continues to receive subscriptions, institutional funds are gradually positioning in the privacy sector. Nearly 30% of circulating supply is locked in privacy pools, the spot market on the secondary market itself is not abundant. After completely clearing the old pools, ZEC as a "programmable privacy asset" is cleaner and faster than before $ZEC The so-called “whale bottom fishing” shouted across the entire network during the day is actually a money laundering operation. 27,553 ETH, average price $2,286, $62.97 million smashed in — after ZachXBT and Lookonchain investigated, it was revealed that an EU agency was hacked for $106 million, and the hacker swapped stablecoins for Ethereum to bridge and launder the funds out. Once the truth came out, the market immediately softened.
$ETH dropped from 2,306 to 2,267, BitMine’s additional 8,573 coins couldn’t cover the 580,100 coins BlackRock outflow in a single month, which amounts to $1.32 billion. $BTC is similar: MicroStrategy bought another 810 coins last week, but the price slid from 78,597 to 77,407, down $1,190. $HYPE is being suppressed by Paradigm unlocking 2.55 million coins across 15 wallets, a volume worth $224 million, with the price at 85.57.
The midterm elections and reserve proof are both coming out tomorrow, and I don’t want to risk my position betting on someone else’s narrative. Spread out over this week, it’s actually three things stacked together: the midterm elections changed regulatory expectations, the AI narrative was re-evaluated, and the nonfarm payrolls pinned the December rate hike bets above 70%. These three threads twisted into one rope, pulling in the same direction — money gets more expensive, risk discounts widen.
I reviewed my own trading records; after the election on Wednesday, I chased half a position in contracts during the surge to 78,000, but got stopped out at around 7:05 Thursday morning. The loss wasn’t big, but it stings. Where does it sting? It stings because I clearly knew BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq was 0.68, yet I kept brainwashing myself with the "digital gold" narrative, thinking it could stand alone.
So here are three points for myself and for you:
First, don’t use narratives as stop-loss criteria, use numbers. Correlation, ETF net flows, liquidation levels — these three are more reliable than "I feel."
Second, in a rate hike cycle, the cost of holding leverage isn’t just funding fees, it’s the error tolerance for unexpected events. A five-sigma surprise like the nonfarm payrolls happens once or twice a year.
Third, distinguish between "cheap" and "should rise." Is 75,000 cheap? Maybe. Will it rise tomorrow? I don’t know. These two things are unrelated.
When I read this again next weekend, I hope I’m still in the game, not cleared out. Survive first, then talk about right or wrong. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC Is 75,000 the bottom or just a gas station? I reconciled with three charts
Nothing to do over the weekend, so I put the three cycles together to look, and the more I look, the less confident I am to draw a conclusion.
First chart, moving averages. Daily MA5 at 77,340, MA10 77,934, MA20 79,761, MA30 80,614, price is below all lines, MACD histogram -649. Pure technical analysts seeing this wouldn’t bottom-fish here.
Second chart, liquidation map. Above are three dense liquidation zones at 79,000-80,000, 81,500, and 82,000; below are 77,000-77,500, and further down 75,000-76,000. Meaning: moving up will encounter "trapped holders running to break even," moving down there’s not much leverage left to blow up. The latter is actually good—bears have no fuel.
Third chart, position behavior. ETFs are still net outflows, but outflow volume shrank from 640 million (10/30) to 430 million (11/5) and is less scary now. Volume down on the drop, volume contraction on stabilization, the old pattern, but this time it’s just "less panic," not yet "someone is buying."
My move: 30% spot unchanged, zero contracts. Waiting for one of two signals—ETF single-day net inflow, or daily close back above MA10. Before that, if itchy, just do some grid trading, don’t play hero. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC Last night the nonfarm payroll data was released, and it was even stronger than I expected. October added 165,000 jobs, while the market expected only 65,000, more than doubling the forecast. The unemployment rate didn’t rise but fell, from 4.2% to 4.1%.
As soon as this data came out, the market exploded—the probability of a rate hike in December instantly surged. BTC was holding at 75,500, but after the data release it directly broke below 75,000, hitting a seven-week low at 74,762.
I have been trading for fifteen years, and this data completely shattered the previous expectation that "the economy would weaken and the Fed would cut rates." Such strong employment indicates the economy is nowhere near the point of needing rate cuts; high interest rates may be maintained even longer.
The drop last night was simply the negative news being priced in.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
【SanDisk SNDK these days: explosive earnings report, stock price first crashes then rebounds】
On 11/5, it plummeted 22.26% in a single day to $806, then rebounded 3.55% on Friday to close at $835. The trigger is not the earnings report: midterm elections sparked concerns over AI data center regulations, Kioxia's guidance was only flat, implying a slowdown in flash price increases, and rumors of Yangtze Memory's capacity expansion further pressured supply expectations.
But "cycle peak" does not equal "fundamental collapse": Q2 EPS guidance is $55–57, with an annualized valuation under 4 times, and analysts mostly still rate it as "buy." Technically, RSI is about 24, breaking below the 50/200-day moving averages, indicating a short-term oversold rebound; mid-term reversal requires reclaiming $1150–1270. The real test will be the earnings report at the end of January next year.Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, putting the Fed's December rate cut expectations to the test again!
For the crypto community, strong non-farm data is not necessarily positive.
If rate cut expectations cool further, expectations for loose liquidity may weaken, and risk assets like BTC and ETH could face short-term pressure; but how the market ultimately moves will depend on subsequent inflation data, the dollar's trend, and actual capital reactions.
Key points to watch next:
Federal Reserve policy expectations: whether the probability of a December rate cut continues to decline;
U.S. Treasury yields: whether the upward trend continues;
BTC and ETH: whether key support levels hold and if rebounds have volume support.
Market trading is never just about the data itself, but the changes in expectations behind the data. After news breaks, it’s often more important to wait for market confirmation than to blindly bet on direction.
$BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The Democrats took Congress, the crypto market first rose then fell, I think I understand now
The result of this midterm election is the most beautiful fake move of the week.
On November 4th, as the election results became clear, Bitcoin made a V-shaped rebound past 78,000, with a compelling reason: the Democrats want to amend the "Clear Act," possibly strengthening SEC powers and restricting officials from holding coins. It sounds like bad news, but the phrase "finally some rules" itself is fuel for the crypto price, as uncertainty discounts were reclaimed.
Then on November 5th, the same group gave back all the gains in one day. Why? The market repriced another factor: the faction of Democrats from more states already dislikes the unchecked expansion of AI, including reviews of data center energy consumption, land use approvals, and longer construction cycles—all factored into valuations. The Nasdaq lost about 2.5 trillion dollars in one day, the seven giants combined nearly 1 trillion, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index dropped over 12% in one day.
The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100, according to Bitfinex, reached 0.68.
So stop saying "Bitcoin is digital gold," at least not this week. It is a high-beta tech stock wearing a decentralized outfit. I didn’t buy the post-election rebound this round because I couldn’t figure out which is heavier—"regulatory clarity" or "AI budget cuts"—now the answer is clear: it’s the latter. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC Strategy's 849,327 coins are both a shield and an anchor
A holder's perspective on the toughest position.
As of November 1, Strategy holds 849,327 coins with a total cost of $64.08 billion and an average price of $75,451. Note this price—the current coin price is $75,838, their 2026 batch has just resurfaced, and the overall average price is still around $90,600. Sellers are not necessarily at a loss; they can withstand it on paper.
This model is now stuck at a critical point: MSCI's new rule finalized on October 15 removes "non-operating companies" from the global investable market index. Strategy and Metaplanet are both on the potential list; among the 22 affected companies, 14 are related to crypto. The final list will be announced on November 11 and will take effect after market close on November 30.
The selling pressure from passive funds is estimated by Morgan Stanley to be about $2.8 billion. Even harsher is the flywheel effect: weak stock price → narrowing premium on issuing shares to buy coins → less coin buying → narrative discounting. I personally treat MSTR as "2x leverage on BTC," so this week I’m watching November 11 first, not the coin. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC Where did the money go after six consecutive ETF losses?
Let's talk about real capital flows, this part matters most to me.
On November 3rd (Eastern US time), the spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of 116 million, BITB counterintuitively bought in 21.91 million, FBTC bought 6.75 million. On November 5th, there was a net outflow of 430 million, with Fidelity at 200 million and IBIT at 105 million. Looking further back, on October 30th there was a single-day net outflow of 643.3 million, the largest since June 25th; none of the 12 products that day had net inflows, and IBIT alone withdrew 233.7 million. For the entire October, these products had a combined net outflow of 515 million, while the outflow in the first two trading days of November already matched the whole month.
But there is an unusual point: during the days when Coinbase premium was negative, it indicated that the spot price inside the market was cheaper than the coins listed on US stock exchanges, meaning traditional funds were withdrawing while the crypto community was supporting. This is unlike 2024’s "institutions taking over, retail following" scenario; it seems both sides are waiting.
My personal rule is simple: only add positions after two consecutive days of net inflows; a single day’s rebound doesn’t count. We haven’t reached that point yet. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC #ASTS advances mobile direct satellite connection service, commercialization progress pending disclosure $ASTS
Core judgment: Q3 revenue is highly likely to be near consensus (about $45 million), but the probability of GAAP EPS being above -$0.41 is only about 30%–35%, "below expectations"
Commercialization: BlueBird 11-13 have entered orbit, with a total of 13 satellites in orbit. Integration tests with Europe and Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica are underway, and Brazil has also obtained Anatel regulatory approval and signed with four regional operators. But these are all "pipeline laying," not revenue. Q3 revenue consensus is $44.4 million–$45.7 million, a year-on-year increase of about 3 times, but the absolute scale remains very small.
Cash burn: Q2 single quarter free cash flow burned $719 million, twice that of the same period last year, and 23 times the revenue of the quarter. Q3 capital expenditure guidance is $350 million–$425 million, plus $105 million–$115 million in adjusted operating expenses, the burn rate will only accelerate. Cash at the end of June was $2.29 billion, plus $1.15 billion convertible bonds in July, which at Q2's burn rate is only enough to last about 9–12 months.
Satellite deployment: 13 in orbit, target about 45 by early 2027, with a total installation pace to be increased to 6 per month. Below 45 satellites, continuous coverage and commercial service for mobile direct connection cannot be scaled. If the Q3 conference call cannot provide a clearer timeline for the start of carrier revenue sharing, the loss baseline of EPS will not change. This time, the Federal Reserve has slowed down the watch.
There's a detail that unsettles me more than the nonfarm payrolls. At the FOMC on October 28, the vote was 10:2 to maintain 3.75%-4.00%, with Cook and Harker wanting to raise by 25bp. The key isn't the vote count, but what Wash announced: starting in 2027, there will be 8 meetings a year, but one of them will only discuss monetary policy strategy, with no rate votes or statements; in 2028, it changes to 2 strategy meetings and 6 rate meetings.
He also outright rejected "forward guidance," saying in normal times he doesn't trust it.
What does this mean to me? I'm used to positioning based on wording—whether it's "closely monitoring" or "data-dependent," breaking down those three words lets me anticipate moves early. Now that path is closed; the only signals left are from the vice chairs' speeches. Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker put it bluntly: in the future, vice chair speeches will be more useful than the chair's. So I have to rearrange my information sources and can't just focus on decision nights anymore.
By the way, Dallas Fed's Logan is still saying "at least two more 25bp hikes." He has a vote this year, so don't ignore him. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC Nonfarm payrolls +165,000: Good news, but the worst kind of good for Bitcoin
Last night at 21:30, US October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, expected +65,000, previous value revised up from 29,000 to 60,000, and August revised up from 133,000 to 186,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, all exceeding expectations.
Translation: The Fed’s biggest fear, the "wage-price" spiral, is handing it a noose.
CME FedWatch December rate hike pricing was about 67% before the report, surged to 85% intraday, and settled at 68.7% for a hike and 31.3% for no change by early morning today. Don’t be scared by the difference between 68 and 85—that’s the same data breathing at different moments; the direction hasn’t changed—the main storyline is rates rising to 4.00%-4.25% by year-end.
So last night’s scene was especially twisted: Nasdaq futures up 1%, Bitcoin down 5% to 75,765. Risk assets are fighting among themselves; tech stocks are betting on "no economic collapse," while crypto is paying the price for "more expensive money." I cut my leveraged positions in half last night—not bearish, just don’t want to be a human shock absorber for the news. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC I stand with Brother Ba Bai. To be honest, seeing this market, I myself am quite numb. I never expected that all the semiconductors and storage sectors, which everyone says have strong fundamentals, could drop more than ten points in one night.
And this happened without much fundamental change, just because of a potential policy, the entire market was stirred up to this extent. Not to mention $SOXL and $KORU, these 3x leveraged ETFs, which actually dropped 40% in one night.
But after calming down and analyzing, I am thinking about what is real and what has a solid foundation?
Some people say $BTC is relatively resilient, even after Binance and all the hacking incidents, it still holds steady around 75,000. Indeed, this was somewhat unexpected for me. But I feel the main theme for this phase might not be focused on discussing BTC. It fell less, but whether it can have strong elasticity when it rises, I have a small question mark.
From another perspective, actually all these AI companies we worry about today do exist.The 76,000 price is the most "fake" support I've seen this year
Just refreshed, BTC 75838, opened at 76088, daily high 76416, low 74888, amplitude 2.01%, down 0.33%. The numbers are quiet, but this quietness is what's left after Thursday's liquidation.
Zooming back 36 hours: On November 5th at the US stock market open, Bitcoin dropped from 78767 to 75986 within an hour, hitting a low of 75200. The entire network saw $1.254 billion liquidated in 24 hours, with 238,600 people forcibly liquidated, including $1.11 billion in long positions. The 75000-76000 range is originally a dense area on CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap. The price staying here doesn't mean someone is holding it up; it means the leverage has been cut off, and there's nothing left to liquidate.
My own view: support is not "it will bounce when it falls here," but "there are still people willing to buy here." Currently, I see no evidence of anyone willing to buy here. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC dropped to 76,000 overnight. The day before was a rebound after short squeezes, but today the liquidation list switched to longs.
More worth noting than the drop is the rhythm: crypto almost crashed alongside the Nasdaq. Many still treat BTC as a safe haven decoupled from the US stock market, but when the entire market is deleveraging simultaneously, BTC and tech stocks share the same liquidity pipeline, making it hard for funds to move independently.
True decoupling isn’t about low correlation during normal times, but about risk assets being sold off collectively while it can still independently strengthen—that’s what safety means. Clearly, that’s not the case now.
So, don’t bet on it suddenly decoupling when correlation is at its highest.The Taiwan stock market just posted its worst single-week performance since 2001. The official response was not to wait for buying interest to return, but to pull out a 500 billion TWD rescue fund and impose a short-selling ban starting November 9. Arthur Hayes' comment on this was simply: The AI rescue operation has begun.
First, let's talk about the nature of these actions. The rescue fund addresses "whether there is money to buy," while the short-selling ban addresses "whether it can be smashed." The former adds liquidity to the market, the latter blocks half of the outflow. Doing both simultaneously almost guarantees a short-term effect: the index stops falling, shorts cover, and volatility is suppressed. But what is suppressed is volatility, not valuation.
Next, consider the mechanism. The most direct effect of banning short selling is to remove the opposing side. Short sellers are forced to close positions, and their buybacks become a spontaneously appearing buying force, pushing prices up. This looks like "confidence recovery," but in reality, it is "the supply side being artificially cut off." The quality of this rise depends on when the short-selling ban is lifted—on the day it is lifted, the postponed selling pressure will return all at once.
Therefore, for assets like $BTC and $ETH, which trade 24/7 without price limits or short-selling bans, this round of sentiment transmission is one-way: positive news can drive prices up, but the real selling pressure in the Taiwan market has not disappeared; it has just been postponed until after November 9.
What really matters is not the size of the rescue fund, but when the short-selling ban will be lifted. The week it is lifted will be the final exam for this "AI rescue" round.The Democratic Party has taken both chambers and verbally calls for anti-war, but don’t celebrate too early. The new Congress won’t be sworn in until January 3 next year, and in these two months, Trump could very well try to make some moves—once this window closes, it’s gone. But looking at the bigger picture, the Democrats hold the "purse strings," so it will be very difficult for them to push for large-scale wars or war budgets in the future. So my judgment is: the probability of a full-scale US-Iran war is decreasing, but this two-month "window period" is actually a high-risk phase for unexpected events.
What does this mean for the crypto community? To put it bluntly: if oil prices don’t explode, $BTC can breathe. Previously, when US-Iran tensions escalated, oil prices soared, inflation expectations rose, and the Federal Reserve dared not ease monetary policy, so $BTC was suppressed. Now that Congress wants to lock down war, the "panic premium" in oil prices will gradually fade. As long as Trump doesn’t make any big moves in these two months, the macro environment is implicitly positive for crypto—one less straw to break the camel’s back.
But don’t get carried away in your operations. Geopolitics is slow to ease but can worsen in the blink of an eye. If Trump throws out some bombshell during this two-month "gap," oil prices will still fly, and $BTC will still drop. The strategy is simple: don’t chase highs; if you have positions, reduce them when the rebound hits resistance; if you don’t have positions, wait for a pullback and stabilization before acting. Don’t take "Congress anti-war" as a reason to go all-in; the market is always teaching us lessons on the way.
#TrumpTokenProbe Hot Coin Data Rankings｜Last 15 Minutes
$ETH surged with increased volume but reduced positions. Trading volume was 137 million USDT, 9.9 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour; price +0.63%, open interest -0.81%. The rise accompanied by position reduction suggests more of a price push from covering or profit-taking.
$BTC rose accompanied by position reduction. Trading volume was 81.794 million USDT, 5.5 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour; price +0.32%, open interest -0.79%. Price up with positions down, the quality of this rally is discounted.$SNDK has been falling continuously? Why isn't it going up?
Don't simply attribute it to earnings missing expectations; the real pain point is that the market is no longer willing to assign high valuations at the peak of the cycle.
Even if the current data looks good, what capital fears most is that the high profits earned now are very likely the ceiling of this storage cycle. Once the price increase benefits fade later, the gross margin will directly decline, and the stock price.#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？
The core negative news landed in October. The company announced that Neutron's maiden flight has been postponed from the end of 2026 to 2027 due to pore defects found in the carbon composite material dome of the first stage propellant tank, which could weaken structural strength. CEO Baker stated, "Possible success is not our standard," but the stock price dropped more than 10% that day. This is the third major delay for Neutron, pushed back from the original plan of 2024.
Analysts quickly adjusted their expectations. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an overweight rating but pushed the maiden flight forecast to Q2 2027; Citizens cut the target price from $130 to $90, viewing it as a "time setback rather than a change in logic." Baker said the new dome testing will not be completed until Q1 2027, at which point a new launch date will be announced.
The financial figures themselves are expected to be decent: revenue around $257 million, a 65% year-over-year increase, with Space Systems continuing to carry the load. But the real question is, in the absence of Neutron, how much longer can Rocket Lab's growth story, supported by Electron and satellite business, sustain market patience? Although the order backlog reaches $2.36 billion, without Neutron, those medium-sized launch contracts are just paper numbers.Strong employment boosts expectations of interest rate hikes, not the hikes themselves; the crypto market can still be bullish in this period.
In October, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, with an expectation of 65,000. The difference of 100,000 is the part that far exceeded expectations. Are these 100,000 new jobs actually added, or was the expectation set too low? September's data was also revised up to 60,000, and the same set of numbers will be adjusted again after release. The monthly comparison is 165,000 versus 65,000; the two-month average is 112,500—two ways to interpret the same month. Before the release, CME FedWatch gave a 72.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. After the release, interest rate futures first fell, then the dollar, gold, and stock markets re-priced according to their respective discount rates.
When the algorithm changes, the magnitude changes.
This judgment relies on the average, not a single month's spike; if November's new employment again exceeds 160,000, the two-month average won't hold down the bullish view, which would then be invalidated.There is a number worth watching today: Fidelity transferred 10,000 ETH to Galaxy Digital, valued at about $22.32 million, with the purpose clearly stated — intended for sale. This is not a single transfer; today a total of 27,000 ETH was transferred, totaling about $60.27 million.
The direction is crucial: coins flow from the custodian to the market maker, changing their nature from "holdings" to "inventory pending execution." 27,000 ETH for $60.27 million, consistent with the price rhythm of this batch of 10,000 ETH for $22.32 million, indicates continuous transfers rather than occasional portfolio adjustments.
The mechanism is also clear. If the ETF issuer and large asset managers really want to sell, they won’t directly dump on the market but will first transfer to market makers, who then distribute the selling pressure between spot and derivatives markets. Therefore, these transfers are a pre-signal of selling pressure, not the selling pressure itself; the impact occurs on the days of execution, not at the announcement.
Three judgments: First, 27,000 ETH is not huge relative to ETH’s daily trading volume, so a short-term crash is unlikely, but sentiment will be affected first. Second, continuous, phased transfers explicitly marked for sale indicate a planned reduction. Third, $ETH is under pressure at a key level, and $BTC and $SOL will follow; correlation rises when liquidity tightens.
The real highlight is not this transfer but Galaxy Digital’s upcoming net inflow to exchanges. Downstream, the selling pressure materializes; if held, it may just be inventory reshuffling.6 AM, just finished washing up and getting ready for breakfast, casually checked the market! BTC is still struggling around 75,000, ETH continues to be under pressure, and SOL hasn't held above $90. Is this drop the final shakeout or the start of a new correction?
First, let's look at $BTC: reference price about $75,500
US October nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, strengthening the dollar and US Treasury yields, and raising expectations for a Fed rate hike in December. Coupled with continuous outflows from spot ETFs earlier, market buying remains cautious. Short-term support to watch is 75,000; if broken, it may test 73,000, with a rebound target at 77,000.
Next, $ETH: reference price about $2,220
ETH is still underperforming BTC; after previous leveraged liquidations, market confidence has yet to recover. Strong employment data further suppresses easing expectations, and risk appetite remains weak. Short-term support to watch is 2,200; only a firm hold above 2,300 offers a chance for recovery.
Finally, $SOL: reference price about $89
SOL fell below $90, indicating the altcoin market still lacks sustained buying. Short-term support to watch is 85, with clear resistance between 90 and 95; avoid chasing gains blindly without volume.
A few final words:
Strong employment data and rising rate expectations mean the market is still digesting pressure. A true bottom requires confirmation of capital inflow, not just a single rebound candle!
Do you think BTC will hold 75,000 or continue to test 73,000?
#AAOIQ3营收同比增长128%，连续六季创新高 曾被视为“天王级”以太坊ZK Rollup的Scroll，在治理论坛发布进展更新，宣布计划在约9个月内将公链逐步转型为围绕AI产品Compass打造的私有应用专用网络。SCR代币将同步迁移至以太坊主网，代币经济学不变，但网络性质将从开放公共基础设施变为私有许可网络。 链上数据早已揭示困境。Scroll日交易量约9700笔，日活地址584个，日链上收入仅41.78美元，较前一周下跌75.6%，在追踪的27条链中排名第21。TVL约360万美元，SCR代币较2024年12月历史高点1.43美元跌超98%，现报0.02美元附近。 L2赛道集中出清 Scroll并非孤例。同属ZK Stack技术路线的Sophon已确认11月30日主网永久关停，提款截止11月25日；Pudgy Penguins母公司Igloo旗下的Abstract将于12月15日关停，CEO承认运营亏损达“8位数”。两者均融资后遭遇活跃度断崖，最终选择关链并将代币留在以太坊主网。 结构性困境在于：L2收入来自交易手续费，扣除L1数据成本和ZK证明生成成本后净收入极薄。Sophon估算年运营成本超300万美元，Abstract则"Ark Fund Plunges 10% to Scoop Up COIN"
Ark Fund's Cathie Wood once again bought the dip on Thursday against the market trend. The entire U.S. stock market fell, with the Nasdaq dropping over 5%, and Coinbase plummeting nearly 10% in a single day, closing at $136.
On the day of the sharp decline, Ark Fund directly invested $2.44 million, purchasing more than 17,000 shares of Coinbase through its flagship Innovation ETF.
At the same time, Ark Fund sold $4.5 million of peripheral holdings to adjust its positions. The capital flow indicates that large institutions have not lost appetite for the crypto trading sector; the subsequent rebound depends on the overall market stabilizing. $BTC Semiconductor violent rebound: a bottom-fishing opportunity or a window to escape?
After continuous panic selling, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has launched a strong counterattack. SanDisk, Micron, SK Hynix, and Western Digital all rallied together, while AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom also strengthened simultaneously. The sentiment across the entire AI hardware industry chain has clearly warmed up.
✅ Factors supporting the rebound
There are three main points behind this round of gains: First, AMD's earnings exceeded expectations, with Q3 revenue at $13.38 billion, up 45% year-over-year; data center revenue surged 97% to $8.5 billion, and Helios rack orders materialized, providing concrete evidence of computing power demand; second, the previous large declines caused panic selling pressure in the memory sector to concentrate and release, with short covering driving technical recovery; third, the uncertainty of the midterm elections has settled, leading to a phase of risk appetite recovery.
⚠️ Reasons why the rebound is difficult to sustain smoothly
1. Fundamental disagreements remain unresolved: the market still worries about the slowing price increase slope of NAND, the peak of the memory cycle having passed, and doubts whether AI manufacturers' capital expenditures can maintain rapid expansion.
2. Macroeconomic pressure persists: U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the Fed's hawkish expectations have not dissipated, and high-valuation growth stocks continue to face valuation pressure.
3. Regulatory risks loom: expectations of AI computing power export restrictions fluctuate; once tightening signals materialize, the entire industry chain will reprice risk discounts.
📌 Conclusion
This looks more like an oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal. Only if capital volume expands during the rebound to reclaim key resistance levels and U.S. Treasury yields fall simultaneously is a shift possible; if the rally is on low volume and quickly falls back, beware of a secondary bottom test. $SNDK Three separate accounts, don't mix them up (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$XRP: Don't directly treat on-chain transfer amounts as buying volume. The XRPL minimum burn is about 0.00001 XRP, payment costs are too low, so transfer amounts do not equal real buying volume. Whether it can hold steady around 1.30 depends on usage frequency, retention, and adoption continuity; burning is just circumstantial evidence, not the main account (￣▽￣)
$XAU: After rising from 3925.45 to 4059.49, it increased 2.7% in 24h, but only 0.1% in the last 6h, indicating a slowdown in high-level advance. Don't force news explanations for every fluctuation; first see if the pullback expands; as long as the main gains are not given back and there is still volume at high levels, respect the market outcome (•̀ᴗ•́)و
$RENDER: The core is the closed loop of computing power payment. Users burn tokens to exchange for work quotas, nodes provide GPU services to earn rewards, and both task payments and reward distributions must be operational. A 4.3% rise in 24h shows attention, but the real question is the volume of paid tasks; AI narratives must translate into orders for the accounts to be clear (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Summary: XRP looks at usage, gold looks at pullbacks, RENDER looks at orders. Three separate accounts, keep them separate~#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 Buy CRCL in batches, don't bet on funds flowing back from a US stock market crash
Binance stock limit orders have a rule: the buy price must be within 10% of the current price. Last night, taking advantage of CRCL's drop, I placed a limit order to buy CRCL at 60 USDC per unit. The first batch was bought at 80 USDC, planning to buy the second batch at 60, and the last batch at 40. As for further drops after buying at 40, that’s just up to fate.
However, despite the US stock market plummeting yesterday, native tokens and concept stocks actually held up fairly well, with declines within expectations and not as scary as anticipated. I don’t believe that after an AI stock crash or US stock market crash, funds will flow into crypto—that’s pure fantasy. Essentially, only when the big river is full can the small river have water. If the US stock market continues to fall sharply, Bitcoin definitely won’t hold up; it will only fall more, faster, and more violently.
Key points
Limit orders are constrained by the 10% rule; buy CRCL in batches at 80/60/40, and don’t try to guess the bottom after the last batch. Don’t treat a US stock market crash as a positive for crypto; when the big river dries up, the small river can’t fill either. #Anthropic11月IPO计划或面临变数 最新消息，原本嚷嚷着要在11月启动IPO上市的Anthropic，现在计划可能要黄了。为啥？因为投资人觉得它之前喊出的1.5万亿美元估值简直是狮子大开口，纯属想屁吃。大家都希望它能打个大折扣，甚至有传闻说募资规模可能会缩水到800亿。盘面上，相关的代币化股票直接大跌了6.16%。 小马哥的个人看法是：华尔街这帮老狐狸，终于开始跟AI巨头“算账”了。 以前只要沾上AI，讲个大模型的故事，投资人就闭着眼睛给钱。现在呢？大家发现这玩意儿是个彻头彻尾的“吞金兽”。就像之前《大空头》原型Michael Burry质疑的那样，Anthropic持续亏损，还背着巨额的AI算力采购承诺。简单说，就是你花了几百亿美金买显卡、租机房，结果赚回来的钱连付电费都不够。再加上最近美股AI板块被血洗，大环境差得要命，谁还敢去高位接盘？这也是我一直跟兄弟们强调的，传统资本不是做慈善的，一旦你迟迟证明不了商业化变现能力，翻脸比翻书还快。 有啥影响？ 短期来看，绝对是个情绪重锤。美股AI板块暴跌，带崩了Anthropic的IPO，这股恐慌情绪会直接传染给In the current cycle, I definitely choose time progress. Before, I only cared about the depth of the pullback, always thinking that a 30% or 40% drop was the absolute bottom and rushing in was like picking up money. What happened? SanDisk's price dropped steadily from 1900 to 800, brutally teaching me a lesson. Only then did I understand how painful the guest's phrase "The cycle determines direction, not price" really is.
The cycle model fears "slow failure" the most. In today's market, the depth of pullbacks is often a bottomless pit; the real killer move is the "boiling frog" effect over time. You see the price has dropped deep enough to bottom-fish, but the big players slowly wear you down over time, exhausting your bullets and breaking your mindset. I can still hold on when deeply trapped, but now I can't add to my position anymore—that's true despair. I'd rather spend time waiting for the right side to stabilize than guess the bottom on the left side.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX Leverage is back before conviction is. After a 5.1% slide in 24 hours from 80,315, $BTC bottomed at 75,511 and has since moved sideways, yet perpetual futures positioning has already risen 6% and funding has reset to 0.01% with no basis premium at all. That combination is the tell: traders are rebuilding exposure, not rebuilding appetite. Volume has collapsed to roughly one-seventh of prior levels, and 76,155 now stands as the immediate short-term support that will decide whether this is accumul$BTC has returned to just above 75,000, ETH dropped to 2226, and SOL is holding the 90 mark. The voices of bottom-fishing in the background are intensifying again, but I still say: no rush.
Look at a more honest indicator than price, the funding rate. A true oversold rebound rally is often accompanied by the funding rate being pushed to deep negative values, with shorts extremely crowded and a short squeeze providing the fuel. But the current funding rate is still mildly positive, showing neither panic nor capitulation.
In other words, this looks more like a pause in a volume-shrinking downtrend, not the kind of pattern a bottom should have. Bottom-fishing is not about who acts fastest, but who can wait the longest. Without the fuel in place, I'd rather stay on the sidelines and watch.Three famous meme coins, only a prolonged decline remains after the 100x myth 🤔
$LAB: Peaked at 24, then declined for nearly half a year, occasionally rebounding by a few dozen points before continuing to drop. Currently, about $310,000 worth of long positions are trapped, with no obvious signs of a pump.
$RIVER: After two pump waves, it consolidated around 6, then sharply dropped, steadily declining to start with 0, basically no hope of another pump.
$RAVE: Occasionally spikes to stop out short positions, then continues to decline. I've lost quite a bit on this coin anyway, and currently see no clear signs of a pump.
Summary: Most 100x meme coins are one-wave plays; after a surge, they often experience a long decline. Occasional rebounds do not mean a reversal, and blindly bottom-fishing can easily lead to deeper losses Gold has been quite interesting these past two days. Many people instinctively think: with the Middle East still at war and Kyiv in Ukraine experiencing consecutive explosions last night, the risk-off sentiment should have pushed gold prices to the sky. But as soon as the non-farm payrolls came out, gold was slammed down.
The reason is not complicated: the non-farm data exceeded expectations, Federal Reserve officials collectively turned hawkish, and the US dollar index surged 0.74% in one day. Regarding the war, the market no longer prices it as "risk-off" but as "inflation → rate hikes." Once rate hike expectations rise, non-yielding gold is the first to get hit.
So stop using the old intuition of "buy gold when there is war" to place orders. First, watch where US Treasury yields and the dollar are headed; that is the real anchor for gold prices. A piece of news more worth watching than the rise and fall of chip stocks: OpenAI's new round of financing has just received the first 11 billion USD, but the tone of this round is "shrinking," with the valuation cut from the originally planned 1.4 trillion and over 30 billion raised, down to 1.25 trillion and a scaled-down amount.
Lately, I've been focusing on AI, not on which chip is making money or not, but on whether the financing chain fueling this arms race is still smooth. Even the leader itself has started to lower its expectations, and those players relying on leverage to take over data centers will only face tighter times ahead.
Money is the fuel for this machine. When the fuel needs to be conserved, no matter how sexy the story is, the pace has to slow down. To start with the conclusion: The rise of $BTC to $75,747 is not because money is buying everywhere, but because it's lining up in just one place.
I've been watching the order book for quite a while. Coinbase spot buy orders have piled up to $24,939,400, while the sell orders on the other side are only $9,236,500, a difference of $15,702,900 — this gap doesn't look like it's made up by retail investors piece by piece. The monitoring from ChainCatcher forwarded by Liquid247.xyz uses the same standard and looks quite reliable.
Binance spot market naturally has thicker buy orders and thinner sell orders, but the thickness difference is a whole level below Coin, so the dominance isn't there.
So for some market moves, I'd rather not understand them than get involved: on exchanges with thin order books, a single large order can slam the price down and create a pit. The recent inexplicable spikes in $ETH and $ZEC retraced faster than they rose. You can follow the shakeouts, but if you mistake the volatility for buying pressure, you're just digging a hole for yourself.On Friday, semiconductors collectively rebounded after an oversell; AMD surged 11 points in one day, and Micron and SK Hynix also recovered slightly. The long positions I hold in semiconductors saw some relief on the books.
But let me be clear: this is a tactical rebound from overselling, not a reversal of conviction. To use a poker analogy, this move is more like passively calling a small bet on the river to grab a bargain, not a heavy value bet. On Thursday, there was a systemic deleveraging, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping ten points in a single day; on Friday, it bounced three points due to technical overselling. Elasticity never equals a trend.
When it reaches the exhaustion zone of the rebound I recognize, it will turn bearish as expected. For the long positions I have, I’ll reduce them once they recover, no attachment to the fight. What do you think about this semiconductor wave? Is it a true bottom or just a breather?A 10x leveraged long position losing 10% means it's completely wiped out.
The long position in $SOXL was stopped out this week, losing 810,000 U in seven days.
Total assets were cut down to 480,000 U.
How leverage is calculated:
10x means if the price moves 10% against you, your principal is zero.
It's not that it becomes dangerous at a certain price level; there is no margin for error from the start.
Others think that when the support breaks, it's time to buy the dip:ZKC, MMT, and AERO have unlimited total supply with perpetual inflation. No matter how impressive the market cap is, it will gradually lose support and the coin price will face pressure under continuous issuance.
RVN, Celo, and Ronin currently have small market caps but have a hard cap on total supply locked, creating scarcity that accumulates over time, offering long-term appreciation potential.
RVN uses a pure PoW mechanism and cannot be manually rolled back or intervened after theft; Celo builds lightweight mobile finance; Ronin forms a self-contained gaming ecosystem.
ZKC has an annual inflation of about 5.5%, MMT about 7.8%, and AERO about 4.8%. Each year, newly issued tokens continuously flow into the market, diluting the value of existing tokens. 选举结果出来才两天，副作用已经浮出水面：76%的选民反对在自己社区建数据中心，Meta也公开承认未来新建数据中心会更难。AI以前是被骂烧钱，现在是直接不让你建——公众意见成了新变量。于是美股出现分层：云服务商在涨，数据中心股在跌，同一个AI叙事，开始有人挨打有人吃肉。 这个分化值得盯住。它说明AI交易的瓶颈正从“算力够不够”转向“能不能落地”，而落地成本正在被民意重新定价。对加密市场来说，这不是隔岸观火——风险偏好的传导从来不分市场。 看回自己这边，$BTC 报76237，隔夜最低触及75200；$ETH 报2244，走势偏软。压力没走：利率预期还压着，AI监管又在加码，买盘力量偏弱，三座山一起压着。这不是单一利空，而是多重约束叠加下的弱势结构。 短线怎么走？今晚9点半的非农报告就是裁判。数据强，加息预期升温，75200可能还要再试一次，甚至有人会喊73000；数据弱，可能弹一下，但别当成反转——现在的坏消息不是一根线，是一捆绳。 所以我的看法是：今晚之前别急着站队。赌数据是最不划算的交易，等它落地，看清楚再动。真正的问题不是非农会不会救场，而是它会不会成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。 $BTC funding rates are positive on more than 16 exchanges, the market has not completely turned bearish
In a weighted snapshot of 18 exchanges, $BTC has positive funding rates on 16 of them, with an OI-weighted rate of about +0.0050%/8h. The price still fell about 5% in 24 hours. This divergence indicates that long positions have not fully exited. If the funding rate later returns to neutral and OI decline slows, it would more likely indicate risk release completion rather than just a rebound masking crowding.
#VanEck与富兰克林推出含BTC配置的新型ETF #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 CHZ, KAIA, and XPL have no supply cap, with continuous issuance that never stops. No matter how high the market cap is, it cannot withstand the constant influx of new tokens, causing the coin price to be diluted in the long term.
RVN, Celo, and Ronin currently have small market caps but have a fixed total supply cap, creating scarcity that gradually accumulates over time, offering long-term appreciation potential.
RVN relies on proof-of-work consensus, with rules that cannot be altered arbitrarily; Celo focuses on inclusive cross-border payments; Ronin is tailored for GameFi's high-frequency, small-value transaction scenarios.
CHZ has an annual inflation of about 5%, KAIA about 6%, and XPL about 6.2%, with fixed yearly issuance, continuously diluting the value of existing tokens.