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# TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
TSMC's Q3 estimated revenue is NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a historical record. This is fundamentally driven by AI computing power orders boosting advanced process volume. However, the high revenue growth is only a scale phenomenon; the real test of profit quality is whether the gross margin can hold within the 65%-67% range. Currently, TSMC is caught in a production expansion paradox: the stronger the AI demand, the higher the capital expenditure, depreciation, and overseas factory costs, compounded by yield losses from ramping up the 2nm new process, continuously eroding profit elasticity. The high concentration of AI orders also hides risks of customer bargaining power and demand cycle fluctuations. If the gross margin approaches the upper limit of the range, it proves that advanced process pricing power is sufficient to cover the additional costs; if the gross margin is under pressure, even with impressive revenue, net profit growth will significantly lag behind revenue, and the market will reassess the sustainability of this AI dividend cycle.This morning, the Korean stock storage chain was hit hard, with Samsung down 6% and SK Hynix down 7%. Here's another data point: foreign investors have already sold a total of 176 trillion KRW worth of Samsung and Hynix this year, making the market look like it's collapsing. But looking deeper, JPMorgan just said that the average price of HBM will still rise 54% by 2027, Hynix itself forecasts a 20-fold increase in AI infrastructure performance scale by 2030, and high storage costs in Q3 are suppressing demand, with no easing on the supply side. The pit caused by panic selling and the pit caused by deteriorating fundamentals are two different things. As a low-frequency player, I wait for the moment when sentiment mistakenly kills good assets down to the floor. What I catch is the oversold rebound, not the falling knife; the difference lies in whether you have thought through the stop-loss point in advance.大饼先跪，亚太接力崩：美国通胀引爆全球资产连环
昨晚BTC从8.3万砸穿8.15万，全网爆仓过亿，美股恐慌它先替你扛了。
美国9月CPI 3.7%超预期→加息概率飙到40%+→美债冲5.3%→纳指-2%、费半-4.3%六连跌。台积电ADR、SK海力士集体扑街，今天亚太接力：韩股跌7%触发熔断，台股跟着跪，A港没跑掉。
传导链：通胀爆→美债上天→费半崩→大饼先跪→亚太接力跳水。
盯三个生死线：PPI别再炸、美债5.2%守住、BTC站回8.3万。不过就管住手，别抄底!$BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $ZEC This short position has already gained 317% floating profit, but I’m not planning to hold on stubbornly; securing the profit is the key!
Opened a short near 1235, 50x full position. At that time, the 4-hour rebound was weak, 1300 couldn’t be sustained, moving averages kept suppressing, and selling pressure on the order book once reached 85%, with buying only 15%, clearly the bears were in control.
ZEC has fallen all the way from the high to 1156, not far from the previous low at 1111. Once altcoins lose momentum, prices may be revalued, and coins lacking sustained narrative support are more prone to chip battles.
But the closer to the previous low, the more you shouldn’t blindly chase shorts. There may be support at the low, and bear profit-taking along with bottom-fishing funds could trigger a sharp rebound.
My plan: gradually take profits off the table, keep a small base position to observe if 1111 can be effectively broken.
Shorting profits from trends and sentiment cooling off, not from needing to ride the entire downtrend. Especially with 50x full position, even a slight rebound can quickly amplify risk.
This time I’m not aiming to sell at the lowest point, just to truly lock in the profits!
#ZEC #BTC #ETH #ContractTrading #CryptoMarket#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Regarding #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓, here are my four points:
1. Made a killing: 46.7 billion in 9 months, exceeding all global estimates, even more than last year's full-year earnings.
2. All thanks to AI boost: The whole world is into artificial intelligence, with $NVDA and others; if you want to make AI chips, you have to beg for foundry services, and $TSM's message is clear: get in line.
3. Standing out among peers: $SAMSUNG, Intel—only TSMC's products are truly high-end.
4. Don't get carried away: AI chips are 🔥, but mobile and automotive chips are just so-so, with long-term risks. # TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed **Rating: Buy | Target Price ADR $555 / Taiwan Stock 3,300 TWD** > ⚠️ **Important Timing Reminder**: Today (10/15) is TSMC's Q3 Institutional Investor Conference. The report already includes the announced Q3 revenue, but **actual gross margin, operating margin, and Q4 guidance have not yet been disclosed**, which is currently the biggest information gap. ### Core Arguments TSMC is not one of the companies "benefiting" from the AI race, but rather the **physical bottleneck that all major AI technology paths must pass through**—NVIDIA GPUs, Google TPUs, AMD, AWS Trainium, Microsoft Maia, Meta MTIA without exception. The competitors' differences are not in single-point technology but in the systemic moat formed by manufacturing scale + yield + customer trust. ### Three Reasons to Buy | # | Argument | Key Evidence | |---|---|---| | 1 | **Near monopoly in advanced process, gap is widening** | A16 (1.6nm) development completed, mass production in 2026 Q4; Samsung 1.4nm delayed from 2027 **to 2029**; Intel 14A risk trial production only in 2028 | | 2 | **CoWoS packaging is a tougher bottleneck than the process** | Monthly capacity 3 $SNDK
Many friends are watching SNDK closely, thinking the drop has been significant and wondering if it has bottomed out. Don't be too optimistic yet; the external market environment is not favorable. The South Korean semiconductor sector is collectively weakening, with Samsung and Hynix plunging sharply, dragging down the entire memory segment. Coupled with continuous breakthroughs in domestic memory technology, the market is starting to reassess the previously hot AI storage demand and question the authenticity of its actual implementation. Once expectations loosen, bullish sentiment cools rapidly. Even if SNDK itself has thematic support, it is difficult to defy the overall sector trend.
Currently, long position holders are in a tough spot: afraid to exit and sell at the lowest point, yet worried about further declines if they add positions—caught in a dilemma.
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
⚠️This is only a personal market view and does not constitute trading advice $MSTR 6% off to buy BTC?#TSMCOct15Earnings #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance yet to be revealed
Key focus on gross margin; overseas factory construction and capital expenditures will increase cost pressure, with gross margin expected to slightly decline.
The risk lies in the possibility that if AI customer capital expenditures slow down temporarily, or overseas factory construction continues to erode profit margins, valuation will come under pressure. Overall performance is highly likely to meet or slightly exceed expectations, but the stock price battle focus will shift from revenue to medium- and long-term capital returns.#TSMCOct15Earnings
TSMC reports Q3 today and the revenue part is basically already out: monthly sales add up to NT$1.494T (~US$46.7B), +51% YoY and above the top of the US$44.6–45.8B guidance. So the real test today isn't the top line. It's three things: (1) gross margin vs the 65–67% guide while 2nm ramps, (2) Q4 guidance, (3) any change to the US$60–64B capex. A clean beat on margin plus a strong Q4 guide = AI demand still running hot.In the 12-hour liquidation heatmap, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL each have three stacked short "pain zones" above them, like three magnets, but magnets never guide the way. Let's look at the data first: Around 84375.7 above $BTC, approximately $32.18 million in short liquidations are concentrated, just +0.74% from the current price; $ETH has about $13.98 million near 2545.16, +1.3% away; $SOL has about $2 million near 108.85, +1.03% away. The pain zones for these three coins all fall within just over 1%, creating a density that easily gives the illusion of "one poke and it explodes." But density does not equal inevitable touch. The truly noteworthy signal is that the three pain zones are simultaneously close to the current price, indicating that both leveraged longs and shorts are adding positions near the same price range, putting the market in a stalemate where "whoever moves first loses." Historical experience repeatedly shows that before major data releases, pain zones are often not springboards for breakouts but bait to hunt stop losses — a quick dip, a sweep, then a pullback is a more common scenario. In other words, the liquidation chart tells you where it hurts, but not when it will hurt. Treating pain zones as breakout signals is like mistaking a map for a road sign. What’s even more worrisome is the second-order effect: once the shorts above are forcibly liquidated, the resulting surge often comes fast and fierce, but the subsequent counterattack is equally brutal. Because liquidation-driven rallies don’t rely on real buying pressure, once the fuel burns out, those chasing the highs become the next victims of pain.#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's Q3 earnings report is about to be released. After record-high revenue, where is the market's real "winning move"?
TSMC's Q3 revenue is approximately 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a historical record. However, on the market, TSM and xTSM saw about a 2% pullback, indicating that the market has already priced in the positive revenue news. The focus now is on the following three points:
* Gross margin and profit realization: The company previously forecasted a Q3 gross margin of 65% to 67%. Whether net profit can also achieve significant growth will be the direct driver determining if the short-term stock price can continue to hit new highs.
* Q4 guidance and capital expenditure: Compared to the already announced Q3 data, investors pay more attention to Q4 revenue guidance and whether capital expenditure will be increased. This directly reflects the sustainability of strong downstream AI chip demand.
* Sentiment and trading strategy: If the guidance only meets expectations, beware of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of volatile pullback; if capital expenditure and guidance are raised beyond expectations, AI concepts and related tokenized U.S. stocks are likely to see a new round of rally.
After tonight's earnings call, will everyone prefer to position early or wait for the guidance to be released before trading with the trend? #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
Latest data shows TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately $46.7 billion USD, a 51% year-over-year increase $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it remains to be seen if management will raise full-year revenue growth forecasts and increase capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas fab drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona fab is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution for potential profit-taking
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Tech giants' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend.
Do you think it will take Elon Musk's deal in Texas, or steadily focus on Arizona?
DYOR MSFT/USDT Perpetual $MSFT
I mentioned yesterday afternoon that I shorted MSFT.
Friends who followed can give a like, showing that my sharing can still help some people.
The logic is simple: this is a new high major top, and it has tested twice before without breaking through, indicating resistance still exists.
So just boldly short it!
For the position here, braver friends can even go bigger because the stop loss is very clear—it's a new high.
The upper and lower limits of the box range are the simplest and most certain structure.
I'm not saying it will definitely rise at the lower limit or fall at the upper limit.
Rather: the entry point is known, the stop loss is also known, and it's clearly known.
This is the most satisfying position for beginners to trade.
If you say MSFT's market cap is too big and the profit isn't much.
Well, it has risen from 350 on 6/26 to 550 now, a 50% increase in four months. BTC in a bull market is roughly at this level too, right?
Wouldn't you want to earn money with certainty?$BTC expected 3.6, actually released 3.7 (US September CPI exceeded expectations), logic is clear and easy to understand.
Expected 3.6, actual 3.7: Latest interpretation of US inflation data
On the evening of October 14, the US released September CPI inflation data, with the market unanimously expecting 3.6%, but the actual figure came in at 3.7%, slightly exceeding expectations, completely changing the short-term market rhythm.
Although it's only a 0.1% difference, this is a very critical recent inflation reversal signal and the core reason for global market volatility that day.
1. Core data comparison (easy to understand at a glance)
Market expected CPI year-on-year: 3.6%
Actual released CPI year-on-year: 3.7%
Previous value (last month): 3.4%
Core CPI: 2.6%, also higher than expected
In simple terms: inflation did not continue to cool down, but instead rose again, hotter than everyone expected.
This time, CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase in nearly half a year, indicating that the current price increase speed is accelerating, not a temporary fluctuation.
2. Why did it exceed expectations?
The main driver of this inflation rebound is the sharp rise in energy prices.
Recently, oil prices have continued to rise, directly driving up transportation, fuel, and commodity costs, combined with still strong consumer resilience, making overall price decline difficult.
The market originally expected inflation to continue to decline steadily and the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose policy pace, but the data directly "slapped" the loose expectations.
3. What does the 0.1 difference actually affect?
Many people think a 0.1% difference is negligible, but the financial market looks at trend turning points.#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed The market already knew about TSMC's revenue record before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might be a bit late in the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are also insufficient to conclude the overall AI demand.
After the monthly revenue was disclosed in advance, the focus of the earnings report should shift forward. How the next quarter's orders are arranged, which demands can be sustained, and whether customers are pulling orders ahead are more informative than repeating the already public total figures.
In the conference call, I especially want to hear about the timing distribution of orders. If customers place orders early to lock in supply, and the subsequent demand expands in sync with actual usage, the implications for the next few quarters are different. It is still unclear which situation applies. This question is worth keeping.
Being optimistic about TSMC doesn't mean expecting only good news at every step. Strong companies also face changes in order rhythms. What really makes me cautious is that people increasingly need bigger growth numbers to be satisfied, yet no one asks what can still exceed expectations next quarter. For this earnings report, I want to hear more about follow-up arrangements and less about celebrating the existing records.
#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, What Other Highlights Are There in the October 15 Earnings Report? After the CPI release on the evening of October 14, both the stock market and crypto fell together. $SOL dropped from 113 to just over 100 dollars this week, a decline of about 10% from the high to the low.
When prices fall, first distinguish who is selling. Whether the money is flowing out from futures or spot markets, the subsequent market situation differs.
The futures columns don’t seem to be running. The funding rate has remained positive, rising to 0.0097% at midnight on October 15, meaning longs continue to pay shorts. Open interest increased from 8.44 million to 8.96 million contracts; prices are falling but positions are increasing. The long-short ratio of large accounts rose from 2.58 to 2.89.
On the spot side, it’s the opposite: the proportion of aggressive sell orders reached 58% on October 15, compared to around 48% in previous days. Aggressive sells directly consume buy orders; a high proportion means sellers are eager to exit.
The spot chips are being sold off, while the large holders on futures are taking them in. This combination has appeared 7 times in the past 500 trading days; in the following 7 days, 4 times the price rose and 3 times it fell, with a median increase of 3.3%, the best gain 24.3%, and the worst loss 6.4%. The median for all trading days in the same period was a 0.5% decline.
The sample size is only 7, so it can’t be considered a rule, but at least spot selling doesn’t necessarily mean continued decline. What needs monitoring is whether the batch of longs taking delivery is still present; if the funding rate drops to negative and open interest falls accordingly, it means this wave of holders has changed.
ETF outflows are only a bit over one million dollars per day, negligible compared to daily volume of 3 billion; it’s not the main force behind this wave.#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
$TSM Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, up 50% year-over-year, exceeding the company's USD guidance upper limit by 2%. This figure was announced with the monthly revenue on October 8, and the market has had seven days to digest it.
Last night after the US market closed, ASML raised its full-year 2026 guidance for the third consecutive quarter, with net profit doubling year-over-year. ADR fell 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.3%. On the same day, US September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 37%, but the market has not yet priced in the above-expectation data.
ASML's earnings report showed a gross margin of 57.5%, surpassing the guidance upper limit, driven by service and upgrades based on installed equipment. The doubling of net profit included a pre-tax valuation gain of about $510 million from Mistral AI. Management said customers are already inquiring about equipment for 2029 and 2030.
TSMC will hold its earnings call today at 2 PM. Revenue is clear; the only suspense remains the gross margin. Last quarter was 67.7%, guidance is 65% to 67%, consensus at 66.5%.
2nm actually accounted for 3% in Q2; Bank of America estimates 11% in Q3 and 18% in Q4, supporting above 67%. Next year’s 70% has backing. If below 66%, the sell-side curve will have to be adjusted downward. $xTSM
$ASML said supply will be insufficient from 2027 to 2028. TSMC will update its 2027 capital expenditure plan today.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight In the model, the cautious/benchmark/optimistic scenarios adopt tax rates of approximately 18%/17%/16%, and diluted shares of 4.22/4.20/4.18 billion respectively; net non-operating expenses are about $130 million/$110 million/$90 million respectively. Therefore, the optimistic scenario includes joint improvements in profit margin, tax rate, and share count.TSMC's record revenue is old news. Today's real test: margins.
Q3 revenue: ~NT$1.49T, up ~50% YoY, record high (already confirmed) Q3 gross margin guide: 65-67%
Last quarter it printed 67.7%, above the top of its own guide
Earnings call: Oct 15, 14:00 Taiwan time.
Revenue is the headline. Profit growth is the question.
Where does Q3 gross margin land?
- Above 67%
- 65-67%
- Below 65%
#TSMCOct15Earnings #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance yet to be revealed Four questions determine the direction
Can the full-year guidance be raised again? Morgan Stanley expects it to be raised from "above 40%" to "mid to low 40%", Goldman Sachs forecasts 42% full-year growth in 2026, and Q4 revenue is expected to decline by 0.05 quarter-on-quarter. The record revenue of TSMC was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might already be a step behind the pace. #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
Tesla will showcase the long-delayed Roadster at an event in Texas on October 15, planning to demonstrate levitation using SpaceX rocket technology, employing compressed gas thrusters to lift the car body, with no one inside. Elon Musk is reportedly warning employees that this performance "is difficult to accomplish and may go wrong." According to BeInCrypto, the market is focused on whether this unveiling will boost the stock price or repeat the sell-off seen after previous product launches.
Tesla's stock closed at $375.23 on Tuesday, about 25% below its 52-week high. Historically, after the 2019 Cybertruck launch, the stock dropped 6%; after the October 2024 Cybercab launch, it fell 8.3%; and after another Cybercab event on September 4, it declined 5.92%. Analysts say that if clear pricing, mass production, and delivery schedules are provided, TSLA could be supported; otherwise, the first trading day on October 16 may face disappointment. $TSLA #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix reports Q3 after the close on Oct 20. Guidance calls for ~$12.86B in revenue, up ~12% YoY, so the bar is already set. The real swing factors are ad-tier adoption, inventory fill rate, and CPM trends. If ads scale while margins hold, the growth narrative stays intact. Watching operating margin and Q4 guidance closely$FIL 永续50倍空单，1.1481开，现1.0667，浮盈+354.49%。
思路很朴素：顶部横盘缩量到极致，波动率压到地板，说明筹码准备派发。一根放量阴线直接把价格从 1.1481 砸下来，典型的破位信号，追空不追多。50倍杠杆，止损 1.20。走势一路向下，不给任何舒服的下车位，盈利直接起飞。
这位置我打算先减一半仓位落袋，剩下的一半止损提到 1.08 让利润跑。1.00 能放量跌破就继续拿，跌不破就全平走人。$BTC $ETH #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? Still bearish 10.15周四，准备多空双杀的盘面走势吗？搁着昨晚的818附近盘阵是为了今早再割一刀？
这盘面换你怎么选？ 这一针是不是看着很唬人？可8w关口依然守住了，那是你空头最严厉的父亲。简单讲，通胀没压下去，流动性收紧预期回来，就是短期最大的利空。反观链上，ETF资金并没有出现大额出逃，给行情托了一点底，没有出现崩盘暴跌，大饼想突破843级别阻力，只有回调下去激活下方的买盘进来，后续行情上行测压，才能带量突破。
技术面，4小时下跌浪里，短期反弹过不了828，后续还有可能回调测试8w关口。MACD死叉，空头i住缩短不等于多头控盘，但是激活下方买盘的入场。小时线插针回收，现在在810-818重建筹码，没放量站稳820，不算转强。
综上，日内依然多头为主，回调803-808区间接多，带量站稳820右侧追多，目标828，843，852$BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 两点思考：
1、如果6w就是底的话，为什么不看好btc未来的上涨幅度。可以参考下上一个周期eth的走势，eth在2022年6月就见底了，只跌了半年，作为一个体量比btc小的大市值币种，跌幅居然没比特币大，没有大跌，洗盘不干净，车重，就没有大涨，上个周期eth的拉胯有目共睹，这一轮严格意义上讲，比特币也是只跌了半年。
2、为什么没有大跌，就没有大涨？仔细回想下近十年币圈最好的行情是那两段？一个是2017年的9.4之后，一个是2020年的3.12之后，全部都是生物大灭绝行情，世间万物的规律就是不破不立，旧的不去，新的不来，旧的财团一直把持着资源，新的财团就无法进入，筹码无法聚集，行情就无法重启。
只有再来一波大逃亡，才有可能重复上演绝地反击。如果机构手里的筹码一直洗不出来，那就只能接受这么一个半死不活的币圈。HYPE现价约80美元，较9月底高点近98美元回撤约18%，测试80美元支撑。 团队10月完成375万枚（约3.3亿美元）OTC分发，避免公开抛售压力，部分已重新质押。 协议累计收入超14亿美元，Assistance Fund已回购超4800万枚、花费13.6亿美元，持仓市值约39.5亿美元，价值回流机制持续强劲。 短期受大盘回调、ETF资金流出及多头清算拖累，但永续交易主导地位与回购烧币仍支撑基本面，80美元附近或成关键博弈区。Google Cloud's 82% growth rate is not simply a celebration of good news; it is a major test of returns under high investment. The rapid growth is already confirmed, but the core market concern now is whether the massive cash burn can be converted into stable cash flow.
The enterprise demand for AI computing power is genuinely exploding, directly driving Google Cloud's revenue surge. The large backlog of orders has already secured the basic foundation for the near future, and this main growth trajectory remains unshaken.
However, to secure the AI track, Google has raised its full-year capital expenditure for 2026 to $195-205 billion. The cost of aggressively investing in computing infrastructure is short-term cash flow pressure. The market no longer simply chases revenue growth but begins to price in the payback cycle of massive capital investments. The biggest question on investors' minds is: with so much money invested, will profits keep pace with expansion?
Currently, bulls bet on sustained hot AI demand, expecting scale effects to dilute costs and future profit margins to improve; bears worry about an endless arms race in computing power that continuously erodes profits and extends the investment payback period. The Q3 earnings report on October 28 will focus on three macro indicators: cloud business profit margin levels, capital expenditure pacing guidance, and management's long-term judgment on AI commercialization.
The track is definitely upward in the long term, but the short term is full of uncertainty. Do not prematurely bet on the market just because of impressive growth. Revenue is only surface-level heat; the efficiency of investment returns is the key to pricing. $GOOGL $xGOOGL #GoogleCloudBusinessGrowth82%,HowIsAIInvestmentReturn 结论先行：$WAL 24小时逆势 +46%——大盘262家下跌，它独自飘红，4H量价说得很清楚这不是板块轮动，是有人在控盘。
数据（OKX公开行情）：
- 10-14 04:00 → 10-15 04:00，4H连续放量：24万 → 520万 → 2314万 → 4041万 → 4268万 → 4618万；
- 价格从0.038最高拉到0.067，当前0.0602；
- 同期BTC -2.89%、ETH -5.73%、SOL -4.88%。
结构：连出5根放量大阳线，典型的小市值逆势拉升——量级对标大盘跌成这样还能直线拉，背后大概率有单一力量。关键支撑在0.055，守住横盘还有右侧机会，守不住这波就是短线猎杀。
不构成投资建议。你见过大盘全绿它独红的币吗？$WAL#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $xTSEM TSMC will release its full Q3 financial report and hold an earnings call on October 15. According to the preliminary monthly data disclosed, Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a historical high. The company estimates the gross margin for this quarter to be in the range of 65%-67%.
The impressive revenue is mainly driven by strong orders for AI chips. With the revenue data now confirmed, market focus has shifted from revenue figures to whether net profit can also grow significantly, validating the realization of high gross margins; at the same time, there is high attention on Q4 revenue guidance and capital expenditure plans.
The market generally anticipates that the high optimism for AI has already been partially priced into the stock. Ahead of the earnings report, TSM stock price has pulled back, with funds playing the risk of positive news being realized. If the Q4 performance guidance only meets market expectations, it will be difficult to drive the stock price higher; only an increase in capital expenditure and an outlook for Q4 business exceeding expectations will create new positive catalysts. Management's judgment on future AI chip demand during the earnings call will also influence short-term sentiment in the semiconductor sector.Core data: Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 46.7 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 51%, setting a new single-quarter record and significantly exceeding the upper limit of previous guidance; 2nm process began contributing revenue, 3nm/5nm capacity remains fully utilized, HPC (AI computing power chips) is the main growth driver, combined with Apple's 2nm orders for iPhones, the proportion of advanced process technology continues to rise.
1. AI computing power demand is the strongest fundamental driver
Orders for Nvidia's new generation GPUs and cloud providers' self-developed ASICs continue to pour in. HPC business unit prices are much higher than consumer chips, and with CoWoS advanced packaging, product structure optimization brings high gross margins. This is not simply about selling more wafers at higher prices; the proportion of high-end, high value-added orders is increasing, giving strong pricing power.
2. Smooth ramp-up of 2nm, widening the technology gap
In Q3, the revenue contribution from 2nm significantly increased, with Apple and AMD both adopting it simultaneously. TSMC is the only manufacturer globally capable of stable mass production of 2nm, and the technical barriers are difficult for Samsung and Intel to catch up with in the short term. The monopoly advantage of advanced process technology will remain solid for the next 2-3 years.
3. Dual engines: AI + HPC + Apple iPhones
HPC drives long-term high growth, while Apple's new iPhone contract manufacturing provides stable quarterly increments, smoothing out cycle fluctuations. The recovery of consumer electronics combined with AI's high momentum, with two high-value customers pushing simultaneously, is the key to this quarter's better-than-expected performance. At 8:30 last night, the moment I was watching the CPI data release, the market almost instantly plunged. The US September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, expected 3.6%; core year-on-year 2.6%, expected 2.5%; core monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%. All three exceeded expectations, none met expectations. The CPI annual rate hit a new high since May, and core CPI exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. Energy prices rose 5.2%, gasoline up 9.1%—the fuel costs from the Iran war have truly been transmitted into inflation. I previously predicted core CPI at 0.2% would meet expectations, but that judgment was wrong. The market was wrong just like me, so the reaction was especially severe. BTC dropped from 84,348 straight down to 80,168, falling 4,180 points in four hours, a decline of 4.96%. The most critical point is that the 81,500 level was broken—this is the estimated comprehensive cost baseline for the US spot BTC ETF and also BTC's 400-day moving average. For the past three weeks, the daily closing price has steadily stayed above this line; the market regarded it as the "institutional cost line," believing institutions would not let the price fall below their cost. But last night it broke, and broke decisively, with no decent rebound. There was $1.716 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 85% from longs. In the last hour alone, $525 million was liquidated, accounting for 31% of the whole day—this indicates the crash was a concentrated outbreak, with leveraged longs wiped out in one sweep. Nasdaq futures fell over 2%, S&P down 1.26%, gold down 2%, silver and gold...CoreWeave dropped from 78 to 63 in just one week, bond yields soared to 15%, is the "refinancing" of AI computing power about to collapse?
Market overview: OKX xCRWV overnight quote at 63.55, a 19% pullback from the 24h high of 78.37; trading volume 2.957 billion USDT, turnover rate 13%, sell orders account for 99%, panic is not over yet.
The event chain is solid: On October 14, the US stock market plunged 16% directly, triggering AI infrastructure financing risks; bonds maturing in 2032 with a 9.625% coupon saw yields rise to 14.8%; FT revealed CoreWeave is bringing insurance companies in as new bondholders, which made the market even more nervous; chip financing has exceeded $35 billion, and analysts warned "if the AI cycle stalls, equity could go to zero."
This is not just a company issue, but a crack in the AI capital expenditure narrative: the business model of GPU computing power leasing is to borrow at high interest to buy chips and then rent them out, the chain is most vulnerable when interest rates and demand both turn sour; concerns about a private credit bubble will transmit along this chain to the entire new cloud sector, even Nvidia's backing can't hold it down.
Watch bond yields as a panic thermometer; US stocks tonight will watch AI sector linkage, no chasing rebounds; OKX support at 63.45, if broken look to 61.85, resistance at 65.75. DYOR, not investment advice.
#CoreWeave #AI computing power #US stock tokens#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
Delivering record revenue in the off-season, AI computing power orders support TSMC's growth, with 2nm and 3nm advanced process capacities continuously running at full throttle.
But impressive revenue does not guarantee worry-free profits.
Massive overseas factory investments and rising capital expenditures will continue to dilute gross margins. The market's biggest concern now: can high revenue translate into high net profit, and what is the true quality of AI dividend profits?
Revenue is the face, profit is the substance. Tonight's earnings report will show whether profits can keep pace with the explosive revenue growth. $SNDK competitor squeeze, release of CPI data, can it still catch a breath in the short term? When is the approximate bottom-fishing opportunity?
Squeeze in the same industry, along with Samsung and SK Hynix Korean stocks continuing to weaken, massive foreign capital withdrawal, panic sentiment transmission combined with CPI data exceeding market expectations, rising interest rate hike expectations, technology sector collectively under pressure.
Its storage segment's valuation discounting logic based on interest rates has been heavily impacted. Currently, the market is digesting negative news and the short-term negative impact brought by CPI data. If it stabilizes and is driven by delayed cyclical news, then the price will rise.
#SanDisk MSCI rebalancing takes effect, NAND valuation under focus Once the CPI was released, all the excitement dissipated; underneath, things are actually very fragile. You might think it's just a slight data beat? The real issue is that the market has started to reprice rate hikes. On the surface, tonight is just the core CPI at 2.6%, 0.1% higher than expected. But I watched the market for those ten minutes, and the reaction was completely unlike what you'd expect from a "small beat." After the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 5.19% to 5.27%, BTC dropped 1.2%, gold fell 1.0%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.8%. Note here, even US stocks couldn't hold up; it’s no longer just gold and crypto taking the hit. This indicates the market is trading not on "rates staying high," but on "possibly another hike." Once this expectation is priced in early, the contraction in risk appetite won't be limited to just one sector. Here's a quick data snapshot: - Core CPI 2.6%, expected 2.5% - 10-year US Treasury yield 5.19% → 5.27% - BTC was around 83,700 before data, dropped 1.2% after - ETH was near 2,500 before data, structurally weak - Nasdaq futures -0.8%, gold -1.0% Momentum signals and risk signals need to be viewed separately. On momentum, BTC is just over 3% away from 80,000, with immediate support at 81,500; if rates don’t ease, it’s hard for BTC to strengthen alone. ETH has always been weaker than BTC, altcoins continue to bleed; this is not rotation, it’s retreat. On risk, the real thunder is not tonight’s drop, but "another[486 million USD evaporated in one hour, bulls got carried away again, ETH is worse off than BTC]
In one hour, long positions liquidated 465 million USD, accounting for over 95%, showing how crowded the short-term bulls were. More strikingly, $ETH liquidations reached 201 million USD, far exceeding $BTC's 117 million USD. Although ETH's market cap is much smaller, leveraged players showed no restraint.
Liquidation does not mean all funds have fled. On October 13, the combined net inflow of BTC and ETH ETFs in the US stock spot market was about 200 million USD, indicating that selling pressure and spot buying may coexist.
Now we need to distinguish whether the price drop is due to a leveraged sell-off or if spot holdings are also continuously retreating.
Short-term traders should not rush to bottom-fish, nor assume the market is over just because longs were wiped out. Liquidations can clear out a batch of high-leverage positions but do not automatically create new buying demand. If open interest decreases and prices stabilize, it suggests deleveraging may be nearing its end; if rebounds lack volume and spot outflows continue, then this 486 million USD might not be the last round.Oh my god, the short position exploded in profit today, but I don't want to take profits yet.
I think it will still drop today, but I also want to open a long position to catch a rebound, just a small long position as a prediction.
This time the CPI is indeed strong because it makes the market worry again: high interest rates will continue, and there might even be more rate hikes. The leverage in the crypto space amplifies this impact.
The transmission process is: inflation exceeds expectations → rate hike concerns intensify → USD and US Treasury yields rise → funds reduce risk positions. Last night the dollar rose, and US stocks were under pressure, so this round of decline has obvious macro resonance. The rise in rate hike expectations does not mean hikes are certain, but funds will withdraw in advance.
The crypto market was already adjusting, and the CPI added another blow.
BTC:
Focus on whether the rebound can recover the position broken in this round of decline. If it rallies but then gets pushed back, the low point may be tested again. Only if it recovers and holds on the pullback will I reduce my bearish stance.
ETH:
Watch 2400 above first, then the previously broken 2500 area. If the rebound can't hold above 2400, be prepared for another dip; don't assume a bottom just because the price is cheap.
SOL: I pay more attention to its strength relative to BTC. If BTC is sideways but SOL continues to hit new lows, it shows weak support. Only if it recovers losses first is it worth reevaluating. Currently, I won't turn bullish based on just one rebound.
My direction remains bearish, but I allow for rebounds in operation. Still continuing to short BTC? ⚠️ The price has already reached the strong support at 80500, the bears' strength is exhausted, and the target for this rebound is 84800!
$BTC hit an intraday low of 80228.2, close to the key support area at 80500. The selling pressure has clearly weakened, and the bears lack the momentum to continue their attack. The 4-hour KDJ indicator's J value is only 1.9, entering a deep oversold zone, indicating a strong need for a corrective rebound.
This sharp drop is mostly a leverage cleanup; after continuous declines, the buying support below is accumulating strength. Once the support holds, the market will start to rebound, aiming for the 84800 target.
In terms of operation, do not blindly continue shorting; it is not recommended to add to short positions. Focus closely on the 80500 support—if it holds, expect a rebound; if it breaks down effectively, adjust your strategy accordingly. #USCPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight's PPI faces another test $BTC 1-hour long liquidation reached $118 million Total 1-hour long liquidation reached $464 million Beware of bull traps
All three metrics declined within 5 minutes, indicating that bulls are actively conceding during the downtrend rather than bottom-fishing and adding positions.
Long-short ratio:
Binance/OKX account long-short ratio is 1.79~1.79, large account holder ratio is 1.87 — long positions are nearly 1.8 times the short positions, with retail and large holders strongly aligned on the bullish side.
Large account holder ratio 1.8653 > position ratio 1.504, meaning shorts among large holders have heavier average positions — smart money is using the rebound to set up shorts or hedge.
$ETH $ZEC #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, tonight's PPI faces another test #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC released its earnings today, and the stock dropped 2% pre-market.
It's now at 425, down 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, just like BTC.
The 50% revenue growth in Q3 was already known last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.Level 8 Gale｜Asia-Pacific Market Storm Hits! Japanese and Korean Stock Markets Plunge Collectively, Korean Stocks Plummet Nearly 8% Intraday, Nikkei 225 Drops Over 4%, Crypto Market Begins to Follow with Volatility 📉
The aftershocks of the hawkish CPI overnight continue to spread, with risk assets in the Asia-Pacific opening session collectively stampeding: Korean stocks plunged nearly 8% intraday triggering a circuit breaker, Nikkei 225 index fell over 4%, and global panic sentiment quickly transmitted.
Today's market changes:
When the CPI was released the previous night, crypto managed to hold at low levels, with the bears venting and the decline narrowing; but after this wave of panic spread in the Asia-Pacific stock markets, the crypto market was also dragged down by sentiment, and the market began to show back-and-forth oscillations, no longer simply resisting declines.
However, it is worth noting: although volatility has increased, SOL and ETH have not yet effectively broken below previous key lows, and the lower support is still being contested.
The main focus remains on US Treasury yields; as long as US Treasury yields continue to rise, the pressure on global risk assets will not disappear. With significant turmoil in external markets, do not blindly heavily bet on the bottom. It's better to earn less but keep discipline. In a market with intensified volatility, prioritize waiting for stabilization confirmation signals, and enter with small positions to avoid heartache.
#US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure
$SKHY fell 6% intraday and then dropped another 3.86% after hours. It has lost 30% over 7 trading days. My view on memory stocks has always been as a mid-term target. As long as AI demand continues to rise, memory stocks won’t have major problems. But memory stocks also have their own cyclicality.
This cycle is like the "pig cycle": when pork prices are high, more people raise pigs; after supply increases, pork prices fall; the price drop leads to fewer pig farmers, supply decreases, and pork prices rise again, continuing the cycle. Memory is the same. Recently, memory manufacturers have been expanding production, and Chinese manufacturers like Changxin have also joined the competition. It’s foreseeable that global memory capacity will increase. Whether prices can hold depends on whether AI demand growth outpaces capacity growth. If after expansion memory is still in shortage, memory stocks can keep performing well. Otherwise, they will inevitably enter a down cycle.
If you still hold positions now, you can wait for the November earnings report. If there’s a rebound, you can reduce your holdings appropriately to give yourself some room.
Also, watch less Douyin. Storage has shifted from "storage is king" last month to "storage is doomed" these days. If you have weak self-control, watch less of the emotional expressions.$BTC Market | The First Blow After CPI Release
US September CPI exceeded expectations across the board: overall year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), core month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%), year-on-year 2.6%. The 9.1% monthly surge in gasoline is just the surface; housing rose 0.4%, and used cars, airfares, and medical costs all increased, indicating that price hikes have spread beyond energy — the claim that it's "just an energy disturbance" no longer holds.
Market: Upon data release, BTC dropped 1% in five minutes, falling from 83,350 steadily down past 83,000 and 82,000, hitting a low of 81,926, closing at 81,830 (-1.61%). This morning it maintained a weak oscillation between 81,600–82,000, down about 2% in 24 hours. Gold fell 1.5%, silver plummeted 6%, Nasdaq dropped 2%, the US dollar index surged to an 18-month high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3% intraday — this is a synchronized valuation cut across all risk assets, not a crypto-specific negative.
Key point: The October rate hike bet surged from 22% to 45%, Daly said "very likely to hike again."
Advice: 81,900–81,600 is the lifeline; a daily close below this points to 80,365; a rebound requires retaking 84,245 to be considered a recovery. Tomorrow night’s PPI is the second shoe to drop, so don’t rush to bottom-fish.
$ETH $ZEC
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Q3 revenue is clear, the real battle is this afternoon
Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record highs, and even exceeding the company's own guidance (actual about $46.7 billion vs. guidance upper limit of $45.8 billion).
But revenue is just the first half. The real suspense lies in the gross margin: Q3 guidance is 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%—the 2nm ramp-up is expected to dilute by 3-4 points. Whether net profit can outpace revenue growth depends on this.
There is a conference call at 2 PM today, focusing on three points: gross margin level, Q4 guidance, and capex (whether the $60-64 billion will be raised again).
A bit of a cold shower: the stock price just hit a record high, and the revenue beat is likely already priced in. The decisive factor this afternoon is not revenue, but whether the profit margin can withstand the 2nm ramp-up.
Withstand = truly beat expectations; fail to withstand = all good news priced in.
This is not investment advice, results will be revealed this afternoon. The CPI negative news has already been clearly signaled, so why am I starting to pay attention to BTC's rebound??
Yesterday, inflation data exceeded expectations, and BTC followed with a sell-off. The market is again worried about whether the decline will continue.
But I think there is a problem now that is more important than the CPI numbers.
When everyone knows it's negative news, the crypto market often shows a situation where the news is clearly bad, but the price doesn't continue to break down and even starts to rebound.
This doesn't mean the negative news has disappeared; rather, the market may have already priced in part of it in advance.
So next, I will pay special attention to a few signals!
Short covering driving price up, and spot trading volume increasing will raise the credibility of the rebound.
Can the decline be stopped?
If BTC stabilizes but ETH continues to weaken, it means the market may still be unwilling to take on too much risk.
If open interest (OI) drops, can the price hold?
If a large amount of leverage has been cleaned out but the price doesn't break down further, that is a signal worth observing.
Conversely, if the price continues to fall and OI quickly increases, be cautious that new leveraged positions are accumulating.
What I care about now is not guessing whether BTC will rise or fall tomorrow, but whether this negative news has made the market more fragile or has already cleared some overheated leverage.
Sometimes the real opportunity is not when positive news is announced, but after negative news comes out and the market refuses to fall!
Do you think BTC is preparing to stop the decline this time, or is there another wave after the rebound?#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations $BTC $ETH $OKB #TSMCOct15Earnings The revenue of 1.49 trillion is just an announced figure, look at these three things in the earnings report on Thursday
TSMC's revenue in Q3 reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of +50%, a historic record — but this was already announced last week. The real highlight in the earnings report on October 15 is these three things below.
First, the gross profit margin. The guidance is between 65%-67%, while it was 67.7% in Q2. Morgan Stanley directly estimates 67.5%, and the entire market is betting on the upper limit Conclusion first: Whether it can hold depends on $2,400, but today it fell harder than BTC, making it one of the weakest major coins. ETH dropped from $2,508 yesterday to a low of $2,401, closing at $2,423, a single-day decline of -3.41%, with a trading volume of $297 million. CPI was higher than expected, and high Beta assets fell more sharply; ETH is a typical example—it fell 3.4%, while BTC only fell 2.1%. Look at the structure. Spot price is $2,423, perpetual contracts are aligned, no de-peg. Open interest is about $1.53 billion; funding rate is +0.0087%, slightly positive. Note this detail—price fell but the funding rate is still positive, indicating bulls have not given up yet. If it continues to fall, this part of the leverage has room to be cleared, so watch out for subsequent deleveraging. Look at the position. Currently at $2,423, it has broken below the 7-day moving average ($2,491), 14-day moving average ($2,566), 30-day moving average ($2,608), and 60-day moving average ($2,512)—all four moving averages broken. The 14-day low is $2,401 (yesterday's low), and the 30-day low is $2,358. In other words, it is standing on the previous low of $2,401, which is the short-term lifeline. Market cap is $295.7 billion, ranked 2nd. ETH's DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA fundamentals remain, providing mid-term support. But the short-term structure has clearly weakened. What about the short-term trend? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (35%) break below