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#TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced a long time ago, about 46.7 billion USD, higher than the company's forecast of 44.6 to 45.8 billion USD. The financial report meeting on Thursday was not to review revenue, but the costs behind the revenue.
The first challenge is the gross margin. The Q3 forecast is from 65% to 67%, averaging 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to the 2nm capacity ramp diluting about 3 to 4 percentage points.After the US CPI data was released yesterday, US Treasury bonds initially plunged, with yields rising to near historical highs. However, as the stock market fluctuated and declined, US Treasuries instead oscillated upward, eventually closing near the day's high, forming a V-shaped reversal.
This market movement is quite interesting. The initial drop in US Treasuries was due to the CPI month-on-month exceeding expectations, which reignited market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates again soon. But the subsequent rise was more likely due to a flight-to-safety effect (i.e., the safe-haven attribute of US Treasuries returning). This also reflects the market's overall acceptance of the current yield levels (combined with recent US Treasury auction results, it is evident that primary market demand for US Treasuries is significantly improving).
The midterm election period is approaching, during which the US stock market is unlikely to perform well. Instead, AI hardware stocks are facing adjustment pressure after continuous declines, so funds are flowing into US Treasuries. Whether the Fed continues to raise rates in the short term or not will not change this capital flight to safety.
Finally, there is, of course, another possibility: when the global economy faces a recession, stock prices fall and bond prices rise, which is normal. However, there is currently insufficient evidence for this assumption (the high CPI itself is one indication of an overheating economy). #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Nearly $200 million flowed back in a single day—Is the bull market coming back? Don't rush to celebrate yet—$BTC is reported at $83,314, $ETH at $2,496, and $SOL at $106.61; none of the three major mainstream assets have experienced a full-blown breakout rally. The ETF data for the day looks impressive: $BTC net inflow of $176 million, $ETH net inflow of $24.8 million, while $SOL saw a slight net outflow; but looking at the 7-day picture, all three remain under pressure. This is the most worth pondering contradiction right now: ETF funds are flowing in, but $BTC prices are retreating. This divergence itself is the answer. A single day of capital inflow never equals a trend reversal; it is more like a breather, not a trumpet call. What truly determines the direction is whether the funds can form sustained resonance, not just a good number on one day. Structurally, $BTC's resilience to decline is clearly stronger than $ETH and $SOL, the latter two being less elastic, indicating that funds have not yet launched a full-scale offensive. This differentiation sends a very direct signal: the current situation looks more like a consolidation during a downtrend, not the start of a new trend. Only when $ETH and $SOL follow suit can the recovery be credible; relying solely on $BTC's solo rise can only be defined as a local rebound. Tonight, the US September CPI data will be released, with core inflation exceeding expectations, and the Fed's rate hike path divergence still to be digested. Before the data release, guessing who will lead the rally is meaningless; after the data release, what really needs to be watched is whether the three major coins can increase volume in the same direction. This is the hard indicator to verify fund resonance. Opportunity Gold seems to have stabilized, but Bitcoin has gone down. Why?
Bitcoin has already broken below the lower boundary of its consolidation range first, but we can see that except for Bitcoin, most other major coins have basically broken below their recent consolidation ranges.
So Bitcoin has more followers, continuously moving down in this downtrend torrent. Although Bitcoin is still relatively strong compared to other major coins and remains high around 80,000, when all major coins roll down along with the Nasdaq, it also can't hold up.
Also, have you noticed that since the Nasdaq 100 index runs around the clock, Bitcoin and gold now tend to follow the Nasdaq 100 more closely, and have less relation to the S&P so far. The US index I watch the most is the Nasdaq 100.
Gold still has some support from national reserve funds and institutional capital, but personally, I feel that without a substantial reversal candlestick, this support will also face selling pressure, especially if the Nasdaq index continues to probe lower. $XAU $ETH 我死磕多头，不做空。
2412，红盘，振幅才0.24%，盘面死得像一潭水。但越安静，越像有人在底下悄悄捡筹码。从2725砸下来，2580、2540两次反抽全没站住，MA30压在2467，结构确实难看——这点我不装。可2400这个位置，被踩了无数次，每次都拉回来，一次没真破。今天最低2401.37，又贴着收住。真要崩，不会每次都刚好停在这儿。
急杀快、拉回也快，说明抛压在宣泄，不是有人在持续倒货。接盘的不是散户，散户没那个耐心在同一个价位反复挂单。
我的打法：2400-2408分批进，插针到2385补一笔，仓位砍半，杠杆压低。不追高，不因为一根大阳线脑子发热。止损2372，破位立刻走，不扛、不摊平——以前死扛到爆仓的教训，够我记一辈子。
止盈分三段：2440走三分之一，那是前面急杀的密集区；2467再走三分之一，MA30那道坎看K线脸色；剩下留到2510，上去了算市场赏饭。
反弹是诱多？可能。但我宁愿在支撑位小亏止损，也不愿破位追空被拉回来扇耳光。方向认多，节奏认慢。Yesterday, Yaoyao choosing to bottom-fish at $ETH 2480 was a huge mistake, but fortunately, the stop loss at 2450 was timely, with a loss of nearly 2000u😡😡
September CPI is coming, how will crude oil and US Treasuries perform?
US Treasuries: Inflation is off the charts, US Treasuries are being sold off, and yields are soaring! A stronger dollar means pressure on the stock market, crypto market, and gold. The shadow of high interest rates weighs on the market again. As long as yields remain high, a major market rebound is unlikely.
Crude oil: Much of this inflation is driven by oil prices. On one hand, high inflation strengthens rate hikes (bearish for oil prices), on the other hand, Middle East geopolitical conflicts support oil prices, creating a contradictory market. Short term, expect high-level volatility; geopolitics remains the main variable for crude oil.
Crypto market: With rising rate hike expectations, ETH plunged straight from 2523 to 2411! BTC crashed from 8400 to 8151, and altcoins fell even harder. Do not try to bottom-fish in the near term! #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #US CPI Surpasses Expectations to 3.7%, PPI Faces Another Test Tonight
CPI exceeding expectations triggers a sharp drop, decline logic + defensive support levels
Core reasons for the decline
1. US September CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, raising rate hike expectations and pushing US Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on the valuation of non-yielding crypto assets;
2. BTC and ETH spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutional funds are already withdrawing, lacking buying support;
3. The decline triggered a chain of leveraged liquidations, with forced sell-offs accelerating the drop;
4. ZEC is a privacy small-cap coin; when risk appetite declines, funds prioritize abandoning thematic altcoins, amplifying the drop.
Defense support by coin (First defense = short-term first lifeline, breaking it tends to accelerate the decline; Second defense = strong support, dense multi-chip area)
✅ BTC Bitcoin
• Short-term first defense: 81500, the first line of defense for short-term bulls; holding here will lead to consolidation and bottoming;
• Key strong defense: 80000 (round number + dense options support)
• After breaking 80000, the next target range: 77000-78000, selling pressure will significantly increase
✅ ETH Ethereum (more elastic, falls faster)
• Short-term first defense: 2400
• Key strong defense: 2300, this is a previous chip concentration area
• Breaking below 2300, look down to around 2180, where DeFi staking and leveraged positions are concentrated and prone to liquidation
$BTC $ETH $ZEC TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a record high, what are the key points to watch in the earnings night?
TSMC will release its full Q3 earnings report and hold a briefing on October 15. According to the disclosed monthly data, Q3 revenue is about NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 50%, directly setting a new historical revenue record. The company previously guided a Q3 gross margin of 65%-67%.
With revenue data already confirmed, market focus shifts to whether profits can be realized simultaneously. The core driver of this high growth is AI computing demand; orders for Nvidia chips, ASICs, and CoWoS advanced packaging remain robust, serving as the main engine driving performance.
Notably, despite the record-high revenue, TSM and xTSM stocks have already seen a pullback, as capital is preemptively trading on earnings expectations. If gross margin falls short of expectations, a sell-off triggered by "good news being priced in turning into bad news" could occur.
Tonight's earnings focus will be on gross margin, capital expenditures, and the outlook for subsequent AI orders. The high AI market sentiment remains, but the stock price has already priced in most of the positives in the short term. Avoid blindly chasing the rally and be especially cautious of volatility risks after the good news is realized.
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profitability performance to be revealed Today $BTC is hovering around 81,500, grinding close to the 50-day moving average (about 81,100-81,200).
The four bear-to-bull turning points you mentioned do look quite similar: after breaking above the 50-day moving average, it almost always comes back to test it around 40-50 days later, with a roughly 30% gain during that period. History loves to repeat this script.
But the key difference comes afterward: • In 2015 and 2019, after the retest, it didn’t break below and then directly surged at least 50%; • In 2023, it first broke below, scared some people, then quickly recovered, and still went on to gain 50%.
At this position now, it depends on whether it wants to do the “elegant retest” like the first two cases or the “scare first then recover” version like 2023.
Recently, it dropped from 84,000-86,000, just enough to test the 50-day moving average, then bounced back. The short-term RSI is around 46, neither hot nor cold, and the short moving averages are still pressing down, a bit grinding. But the mid-term structure remains intact, with the 50-day still above the 200-day, so the overall trend is not broken.
Currently, it looks more like the “standard retest script is playing out” rather than the trend turning bearish. Whether it rallies directly or breaks down first then recovers, history offers two possibilities, and the market hasn’t chosen a side yet.
Don’t rush to open positions betting on the script; first see if it can stabilize around here. If it stabilizes, then look up to 84,000-85,000; if it breaks, then consider if it’s the 2023 pattern. This grinding here is the most patience-testing, but historically, after the grind, there’s often a good move.
(The above is pure speculation and does not constitute any advice; don’t blame me if you lose money.)01 An impressive report card also brings a tougher question. A quarterly revenue of $16.8 billion, adjusted profitability achieved, and a target valuation exceeding $2 trillion. Anthropic, the company behind Claude, is pushing the AI company IPO story to a new scale. According to Reuters on October 14, citing sources attending an investor meeting, Anthropic's third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion. The Financial Times reported the same, stating the company told investors it was profitable on an adjusted basis for the quarter. This information was obtained from the meeting and cannot yet be considered a public audited financial report. Seeing these numbers, it's easy to conclude: AI has finally moved from burning cash to making money. But on the other hand, confidential IPO documents previously reviewed by Reuters show the company has at least $518 billion in commitments for computing power and infrastructure spending over about ten years. What I want to understand more is: can the money customers pay in outpace the money the company promises to pay out? This issue concerns not only one company's IPO but also how we understand the entire AI industry chain's excitement. 02 $16.8 billion is important, but don't rush to multiply it into the future. $16.8 billion is quarterly revenue, not an annualized run rate derived from a single month's income, nor is it profit already in hand. For AI business observation, this is a significant distinction. It means discussions can finally focus more on paid demand: some are willing to pay for model capabilities. But this revenue report card still doesn't answer how long customers used the service or the price空头又成燃料了？(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
这行情最狠的不是跌，是专治不服。刚认定下行，空单就被抬走；越跌越敢空，刚补仓，反弹就敲门。
午盘清算：1H 560万，空头76%；4H 2019万，空头71%；24H BTC 3285万，空头78.7%，ETH 63.5%。这不是普通止损，是连环逼空：价格弹→空头回补→买盘推高→下一批强平，循环加速 (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧。
但别把反弹当反转。ETF单周净流出6.79亿，ETH流出5.42亿；Coinbase溢价一度转负，说明现货买盘没跟上，更多是衍生品被动回补。韩股跌5.5%，CPI又在门口，波动只会更疯 (｡•́︿•̀｡)。
现在只盯回踩：BTC 81300–82000（400日均线）要守住；ETH 2480–2495，尤其2494不能丢。有人接，才算真买盘；没人接，就是虚火。$BTC $ETH $ZEC ##Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus
Sister U 10.15 Thursday $ETH strategy
Entry conditions: Rebound rises back to the 2440-2460 range, 1-hour candlestick shows a long upper shadow after a spike, rebound momentum gradually weakens, confirm stagnation before attempting short.
Stop loss position: Price effectively holds above 2480, bulls strongly counterattack, abandon short strategy and exit.
First take profit target: 2400
Second take profit target: 2350
Market logic: Last night’s CPI data exceeded expectations, Ethereum quickly plunged from the short-term high of 2529, bottoming near 2401, with a sharper decline compared to BTC. After the concentrated release of bearish power, it is currently consolidating sideways at a low level between 2420-2440, the market turning from strong to weak, in a phase of shock digestion after a big drop. The short-term overall strategy is mainly high short positions, supplemented by low buys. Prioritize shorting rebounds at resistance zones to bet on a second decline, do not pre-place short orders early, wait for confirmation of stagnation candlesticks before entering to avoid short-term false bullish rebounds triggering stop losses. US September CPI year-on-year 3.7%, month-on-month 0.6%, overall in line with expectations; the real surprise is the core CPI, month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 2.6%, both higher than expected and rising for three consecutive months — inflation excluding oil prices is still climbing.
There are three driving layers: energy is the strongest, gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the increase, due to US-Iran conflict, Brent crude surpassing $100, and diesel prices hitting record highs;
Food is stable for now, but high diesel costs are transmitting, Pepsi has already raised prices; the most troublesome is the spread of core price increases, with housing, medical care, leisure, transportation, used cars, and IT goods all accelerating month-on-month, only communications declined.
Market: The US dollar index rose to 102.53, a new 18-month high; the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3% intraday and closed at 5.188%; the Nasdaq fell 1.88%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3% for six consecutive days, Apple rose 0.5% against the trend to become the second $5 trillion company;
Gold fell below $4100, silver dropped more than 6%. Asia-Pacific under pressure, Hang Seng Index opened down 0.8%, Hang Seng Tech fell 2.21%.
Policy: The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, but Federal Reserve officials generally say they are not in a hurry to act — long-term rates have exceeded 5%, the dollar broke 102.
Financial conditions have already tightened, and September nonfarm payrolls were only 29,000, with the previous value revised down by 60,000. The mainstream expectation: no change in October, another 25 basis points hike in December.
The key is to watch Wash’s speech in Bangkok on Thursday evening (the last window before the blackout period), September PCE and oil prices. Conclusion: data changes the pace, not the direction, the decisive factor remains oil prices. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
This morning's abnormal market movement of “gold rising, crude oil falling” can be summed up in one sentence: the market was scared by last night's US inflation data and the early morning crash of the Japanese and Korean stock markets. What everyone is now fearing is not "war," but "economic stagflation."
Last night, the US released the latest CPI inflation rate, which surged directly to 3.7%, exceeding everyone's expectations. The market's first reaction was "it's over, the Fed will raise rates again at the end of the month," causing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to soar, crushing gold prices. Gold fell more than 1.5% last night, failing to hold the $4100 level.
But why did gold rebound sharply from around $4080 to above $4140 early this morning?
This morning, the Korean stock market directly hit circuit breakers, and the Japanese stock market plunged over 2000 points. Asian institutional funds fled from chip stocks and tech stocks, and the money that came out had to find a safe place to stay. Naturally, gold, which had just fallen into a pit last night, became the first choice.
The panic from last night's rate hike has already been vented. After gold broke below $4100, long-term allocation funds and central bank buying considered the price appropriate and directly entered the market to support the price.
Prices are still rising, but high interest rates are hammering tech stocks and the real economy mercilessly. In this stagflation environment of "high prices, poor economy," stocks and industrial goods both get hit, and only gold serves as the best bulletproof vest.$SOXL 跌到105了，但我认为半导体这轮下跌还远没有结束！！！
SOXL从158.91一路跌到105附近，跌幅确实很大，但我依然看空到周五。
真正让我坚定看空的，不是价格跌了多少，而是利好根本接不住！
ASML已经释放了强劲的AI设备需求信号，按理说应该给半导体带来买盘，结果整个板块依然遭到抛售。说明市场现在根本不愿意继续为AI的高增长支付之前的估值。CPI超预期之后，这种压力反而更明显。
接下来台积电即使交出漂亮业绩，我也不认为就能扭转局面。因为市场本来就预期它很强，单纯证明AI订单充足已经不够了。
我个人明确继续看空，预计SOXL周五更倾向收在97—103附近，重点看105失守后，100附近到底有没有真正的承接。
周四即使借台积电消息反弹到114—118，只要NVDA、AMD、AVGO以及设备股没有持续买盘，我依然认为那是反弹，不是反转。
只有台积电明显超预期、PPI缓和，半导体主要权重重新获得持续承接，SOXL站稳120.83并进一步收复127.57，我才会改变看空判断。
在这之前，我依然站空头这一边！我的判断：这一轮的底，可能已经过去了。
$BTC 如此，山寨币也是如此。
对我来说，回调不再是该害怕的事，而是该认真考虑布局的时候。
当然，只是个人看法，不是确定的结论。
$BTC 84000 just touched and was pushed back, once the CPI came out, it directly dropped below 82000.
September core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, expected 0.2%; overall year-on-year 3.7%, also higher than expected. Just this 0.1 difference pushed the probability of an interest rate hike at the end of October from about 20% to over 40%. Interest rates will continue to rise, and BTC, which yields no interest, is the first to get hit. Around the US stock market close, it hovered near 81800, ETH looked worse, around 2430, down just over 3%.
Frankly, this wave is not caused by problems within the crypto circle itself, but being pressed down by macro factors. On October 7 and 8, spot ETFs saw outflows of over 700 million USD in two days, and only 170 million returned on the 13th; institutions have not yet recovered from this.
I think 80,000 is the key point this round. The spike on October 8 reached near 80300 but was pulled back; most long stop losses are likely piled below. If it holds, it will probably continue to oscillate between 80,000 and 87,000; if it breaks down with volume, the 75,000 area is not impossible. Resistance is between 83,000 and 87,000, several attempts at the start of the month failed to break through.
Next, watch two things: daily ETF flows and the interest rate meeting on October 27-28. If officials come out hawkish before the meeting, don’t expect a decent rebound.
Be cautious with leverage; the scene of over 1.1 billion USD liquidated in one day last week was just a few days ago. $BTC #USSeptemberCPIYearOnYearRisesTo3.7%,CoreInflationExceedsExpectations September CPI released, with core inflation exceeding expectations: core month-on-month +0.3% (expected 0.2%), year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%). Overall year-on-year 3.7%, also higher than the expected 3.6%. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have finally started to flow back in; on 10/13, Bitcoin inflow was $176 million, Ethereum inflow was $24.8 million, and Ethereum ended a 10-day streak of net outflows. It is still feasible to buy at the bottom, which means that even if the correction continues, the depth will be limited, and the probability of returning to a bear market is relatively low. During this decline, contract positions increased, indicating that short positions are still being opened, so the correction may not be over. If you want to buy, buying between 75-80k is better, which also falls within the normal correction range of a bull market.
Next, watch two time points: tonight at 20:30 retail sales and PPI (Producer Price Index, consensus month-on-month about +0.5%) will be released; tomorrow morning at 11:30, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will have a public dialogue at the IMF annual meeting, which is an important statement before the FOMC. If retail sales and PPI are also on the hot side, BTC pressure will continue.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is about 54%, and the probability of at least one hike before December exceeds 95%. Crude oil rose 9.1% in a single month, and all costs are rising, so as long as oil does not fall, crypto and US stocks will not easily rise directly. $BTC $ETH $SOL There is an interesting pattern between $BTC's bear market bottom and the US midterm elections:
2014: 71 days after the election
2018: 39 days after the election
2022: 13 days after the election
Each cycle is about twenty to thirty days faster than the previous one.
The 2026 midterm election is in 3 weeks. If this pace continues, $BTC's bottom will not occur after the election but before it.
This is just a projection, not a conclusion. But if it comes true, we won't have to wait until after the election to "reduce risk"; the trend could potentially continue upward directly.
$BTC TSMC released its earnings report today, but the stock fell 2% in pre-market trading.
It's now at 425, down 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, just like BTC.
The 50% revenue growth in Q3 was already known last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.
The problem is the unfavorable macro environment. CPI just exploded last night, and tonight there are PPI and retail data coming out. At times like this, even if the earnings numbers look good, if the overall market keeps falling, TSMC won't be able to hold up.
Previously, the options market bet on a ±5% volatility after earnings, but the average of the past four times was only 2.87%. Expectations are maxed out, and at this level, the biggest fear is "good news already priced in" — even if revenue hits a record high, if the guidance is a bit soft, the stock will still be hammered.
Also, look at the recent trend: the stock fell 12% before the earnings, as if someone ran early.
I bet that when the earnings come out tonight, TSMC will fall instead of rise. Good revenue is already priced in; what everyone fears is the gross margin and next year's guidance.
If you disagree, come argue.今天的行情有个特别之处：不是某一个品种在跌，而是不同属性的资产一起跌。
半小时内，白银下挫近5%，铂金跌2.61%，黄金跌1.81%，比特币回落1.45%，钯金下跌1.35%。
通常，黄金和比特币走势并不同步，这次却一起走弱，说明资金的动机可能不是看空某个资产，而是急着把现金抓在手里。这种"什么都卖"的状态，常见于杠杆资金收缩、流动性变紧的阶段。
当然，半小时的数据还不足以下结论。真正要观察的是：成交量有没有放大，波动能否在短时间内企稳。Core official (Core DAO) has proactively withdrawn its own validator nodes, which can be interpreted in two completely different ways depending on whether it is a voluntary offline exit from the validator set or just a temporary shutdown. 1. The most ideal interpretation: Decentralization (positive narrative) The Core network has only 16 active validator nodes in total. - The foundation voluntarily withdraws its official validator nodes it operates, no longer occupying validator seats, and hands block production rights over to community third-party validators. - This represents the project team no longer controlling the network, weakening the foundation's grip on the chain, aligning with the goal of decentralization for public blockchains. - This is a common operation in the later stages of many public chains and does not inherently mean the chain is abandoning its project. But here is a key point: Although the official nodes exit, if a large amount of staked delegation remains concentrated in the hands of a few top validators, the network remains highly centralized, only shifting control from the project team to a few large holders. 2. Negative signals to watch out for (market's main concern) If the core official validator nodes suddenly exit without prior announcement, the market generally interprets it as the following issues. 1. Project team operations contraction, budget cuts Running validator nodes requires ongoing server and operational manpower costs. - With the token price persistently low and ecosystem revenue below expectations, the team reduces expenses and no longer bears the cost of validator nodes. - This indicates the project team is unwilling to continue investing in maintaining the chain, signaling a weakening of fundamentals. 2. Lack of team confidence The projectOn the surface, it's a celebration, but underneath, the structure is quietly changing. Do you really understand who is paying the bill tonight? When the CPI came out, I was stunned. September year-on-year 3.7%, core month-on-month 0.3%, both higher than expected. In the five minutes after the data landed, BTC was directly smashed down to 82731. 7.4 billion USD liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 83,000 people buried. Half of my social circle is crying, the other half is laughing. But I stared at the derivatives market for a while and found that things are not that simple. This wave is not just a pure news-driven sell-off; the leverage structure is too tight. Long positions are piled up too full, and CPI is just the needle. What is really being traded is the postponement of rate cut expectations and the jump of the rate hike probability to 47%. The market is repricing risk appetite, not pricing inflation itself. I personally placed three short orders and luckily all are still alive. - BTC short, entered at 83111.9, marked at 81853.09, return rate 31.5%. After breaking below 82000, I set a breakeven defense. What I want to say here is that the bearish logic is not over yet, but the pace is starting to slow down. - XRP short, entered at 1.4167, marked at 1.3304. Intraday liquidation of 610 million USD set a record, sliding from 1.55 all the way down to 1.33. At this position, I am already thinking about whether to take profit. - DOGE short, entered at 0.08828, marked at 0.08213. From 0.096 down, gained 130 points, feeling like I can close it. The three floating profits add up to 1667U. It's not false to say I'm tempted; my fingers have already relaxed #Lumentum光通信业务扩张, order performance to be announced One-sentence summary: In the BTCFi and native Bitcoin staking sector, this project is "highly recognized by institutions, has a strong technical reputation, but faces significant controversy among retail investors regarding the BABY token." It is a typical infrastructure project, not a speculative meme coin. ✅ Positive reputation (institutional, BTC OG, mainstream technical community views) 1. High recognition of the technical approach Biggest advantage: BTC does not require cross-chain bridges or wrapping into WBTC; it remains staked on Bitcoin L1 Taproot scripts, eliminating cross-chain bridge risks. Moreover, the design shifts penalty risks to the FP (finality provider), so ordinary stakers' BTC is unlikely to be penalized. This design is widely acknowledged by Bitcoin native advocates. The founder of Aave publicly endorsed its TBV (trustless Bitcoin vault) solution, considering it an important breakthrough for BTC DeFi; top-tier capital from Paradigm, a16z, and Polychain continues to invest, while licensed custodians like Anchorage, Hex Trust, and Kraken have integrated it. The institutional community regards it as the leading infrastructure for BTC re-staking. 2. Reliable team, transparent disclosures, stable roadmap The founder has a cryptography background and prioritizes research papers before token issuance; regular AMAs and quarterly reports are held, audit reports are public, and the team rarely makes unrealistic promises or frequently changes rules or arbitrarily increases supply. It holds a solid first-mover position in the sector and has the largest TVL among native BTC staking projects. Projects like Lombard and other liquid staking solutions also rely on it CPI Night Review: Three Coins Each Going Their Own Way
CPI at 3.7% exceeded expectations, and the market initially dropped in respect. $BTC slid from 83600 to 81888, closing down 1.85%. About $300 million was liquidated across the network, with 170,000 positions wiped out. Fortunately, there was support around 81000, preventing further collapse. Next is to observe whether this is a rebound after all the bad news or a continuation of the downtrend.
$ENA was the worst hit. The yield protocol suffered liquidity withdrawal, with the price dropping from 0.21 to 0.19786, a decline of 5.58%. PIMCO stated that the 10-year US Treasury yield could hit 6%, raising risk-free returns and reducing the appeal of yield-bearing assets. Under the shadow of rate hikes, this type of coin is being suppressed.
$HYPE barely moved. While the market fell 3%–5%, it only dropped 0.3%, closing at 80.631. Previously, it fell from 85 to 81, with floating supply already cleaned out; plus, 97% of revenue is used for buybacks, and there is defense around the 80 level, making its trend appear resilient.
One night, different fates. Macro data changed capital preferences: risk assets are under pressure, yield narratives are challenged, while those that cleared early and have buyback support remain stable for now. Going forward, watch if BTC can hold 81000 and whether ENA will continue to be suppressed by US Treasury yields.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 CPI lands, core inflation doesn't drop, rate hikes are back!!
As soon as the US September CPI was released, the market got half chilled: overall year-on-year at 3.7% can still be blamed on gasoline, but the core month-on-month at 0.3% and year-on-year rising from 2.4% to 2.6% indicate that the "expensiveness" has seeped from the gas tank into rent and services — this kind of stickiness won't just blow away with the wind.
Rate hike expectations flipped directly: the probability of a hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, and even a 50bp hike in December has a 40% chance. US 5-year Treasury yields broke 5.12%, 10-year yields stood above 5.30%, reminiscent of post-2007 levels. The crypto market is the most honest: BTC dipped slightly by 1.92%, while altcoins like AAVE and ONDO, which rely on liquidity, dropped 4%-5% — money is fleeing, but not chaotically; it’s cutting high beta first and keeping the core.
Don't be fooled into a false sense of security by the "data landing." Next, only watch two things: PPI and the FOMC at the end of October. Don't get overconfident and heavily invested in between; if BTC daily closes above 81,000, first reduce ETH, DeFi, and AI narratives, don't get emotionally attached to stories. If rate hikes are eased by PPI, the expectation pullback is the bull window; a truly strong signal is a daily close above 84,146 — then it’s not too late to talk about greed.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #EarningsWatch: Recap and Outlook TSMC ($TSM / 2330) Xiao Luo's commentary
Fundamentals: AI demand (Nvidia/ASIC/CoWoS advanced packaging) remains strong. Q3 revenue has been announced at about NT$1.494 trillion (approximately $46.7 billion), exceeding the upper end of guidance and setting a record, with a year-over-year increase of about 50%. The market expects Q3 net profit to grow about 65% year-over-year to around NT$746 billion, with gross margin likely in the 65-67% range or slightly higher. Full-year USD revenue growth is expected to be revised up to the mid-40% range or even higher. The ramp-up of 2nm and expansion of advanced packaging remain core highlights, but high capital expenditures (about $60-64 billion in 2026) and overseas plant costs diluting gross margin need attention.
Technical aspects and levels (mainly based on US ADR TSM):
Recently, it has pulled back from the early October high near 487, closing around 430 on October 14 (down over 3%), affected by adjustments in US tech stocks, CPI exceeding expectations, and profit-taking ahead of the earnings call. The short-term trend is weak, with prices having fallen below some short-term moving averages.
- Key support: 428-420 (recent lows/psychological levels), further support at 415, 410-400 range (mid-term support).
- Key resistance: 440-445 (short-term pressure), 450-460, near previous high of 487.
- Operational watch: The earnings call guidance (Q4 sequential revenue growth, full-year growth, gross margin, and capital expenditure) is key to determining direction.
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits new high, profit performance to be revealed The man holding 848,000 Bitcoins has spoken: The bear market is over, target 100,000
The founder of Strategy, the publicly listed company holding the most Bitcoin globally, Sellar, gave an interview to Bloomberg yesterday and made two judgments:
First, this bear market has ended. The bottom was below $60,000 and has already rebounded from there. Second, Bitcoin will soon return to six figures, "it should definitely exceed $100,000." In the coming years, it will rise 20%-30% annually.
Anyone can shout bullish, but look at his real cash position:
Strategy currently holds 848,250 BTC, worth about $64 billion, with an average cost of $75,444. Just last week, they added 250 BTC at an average price of $86,194.
Note this detail: his cost line is $75,444, meaning that at the deepest point of this decline, [the world's largest Bitcoin institutional holding was also at an unrealized loss]. He didn’t cut losses and kept buying.
But don’t just focus on the "bullish shouting." In the same interview, Strategy spent $190 million buying back its own shares, which is 9 times the amount spent on buying Bitcoin. To translate: [The big players are extremely bullish verbally, but are balancing cash flow in hand.] This is the real-world institutional operation—faith is faith, risk control is risk control.
It reminds me of something CZ said a few days ago: "My predictions are only right slightly more than 50% of the time because I’m always bullish." Even CZ admits predictions are unreliable. So for big players’ views, listening halfway is enough: [You can refer to the direction, but you must manage your own position.] #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 操Dogecoin (DOGE) Whale (Mega Whale) Classification Standards (Market Common Criteria) - 🐬 Dolphin: 1 million to 10 million DOGE - 🦈 Shark: 10 million to 100 million DOGE - 🐳 Whale: ≥100 million DOGE (can significantly influence the market) - 🦑 Super Mega Whale: ≥1 billion DOGE (institutional/exchange level) Quantity and Chip Situation According to Santiment statistics: there are about 140 wallets holding ≥100 million DOGE, these addresses collectively hold over 108 billion DOGE, with chip concentration far higher than BTC and ETH. Key Big Pitfall: The top on-chain rich list is not a single whale, but Robinhood's custody cold wallet (about 27.2 billion DOGE, nearly 17.5% of circulating supply), which contains coins from hundreds of thousands of retail investors, not one person; second is Upbit, third is Binance, both are exchange custody wallets, representing user asset custody, not private mega whales. The legendary super address that once held nearly 30% of DOGE was split by the end of 2021 and is no longer a single large holder. Characteristics (Compared to BTC/ETH Whales) 1. DOGE is a meme coin with thinner liquidity; a large private whale's big transfer or dump causes much more violent market fluctuations than BTC or ETH, easily triggering panic and chain liquidations. 2. High chip concentration: the top 10 addresses together account for the circulating supplyMainstream on-chain analysis (Santiment) defines addresses with ≥1000 BTC as BTC whales (whales) - Latest statistics: 2044 addresses with ≥1000 BTC, holding about 7.17 million BTC in total, accounting for nearly 36% of the circulating supply But! Address ≠ real independent person/institution, this is the easiest pitfall: It includes: exchange cold wallets, ETF custody addresses, platform reserve wallets, not all individual large holders. For example, an exchange may have several such whale addresses, but they actually belong to the same institution. More detailed stratification (another classification standard) - Sharks: 1000–5000 BTC - Whales: 5000–10000 BTC (narrow sense of whale) ≈100 addresses - Humpback whales (super whales): >10000 BTC, fewer than 100 addresses, including MicroStrategy, the US government, early tycoons, large custodians in this category Two key misconceptions 1. It is impossible to accurately know the real "number of whales": one person can control dozens of wallets; one wallet may also hold funds from many users (exchanges), on-chain can only count addresses, cannot distinguish the underlying entities. 2. Different platforms have different thresholds: some media are more lenient and call ≥100 BTC large holders, which increases the number to nearly 20,000 addresses, these should not be confused. Simple one-sentence summary According to the most commonly used standard in the circle 1 $BTC 昨晚CPI表现出抗跌，挺强势的
1、美股昨晚可以说是血流成河，纳指跌2%，大饼也才跌2%，可能是因为美债利率下跌了，利空和利好对冲了
2、BTC日线和3日线的空头动能并没有减弱，但价格整体跌幅不大，还是继续保持宽幅震荡，但我判断这更像是蓄力，符合主升浪开启前的调整，通过幅度/时间来完成
3、BTC的买盘挂单依然非常强劲，托住了这次价格的下跌，巨鲸都在78-81k进货，我知道很多人在等大跌，但这不现实了，除非有黑天鹅，才能击穿主力的成本区75-65-60
4、交易所BTC历史余额创出新低，80k左右积累的筹码也是新高（记忆中），请跟随主力积累筹码
5、跌到812，散户开始追多，我猜测主力会洗掉这波多头，再往上
6、现货计划，本月还剩下2周2天，10月打折月，继续扩大加密仓位 $BTC $IBIT现货， $MSTR 和 $CRCL 以及强势山寨 $UNI和 $HYPE
7、合约仓位，昨天止盈了 $BTC对冲单，我思考再三，决定不再对冲，反手在802左右挂多单尝试，牛市做多的胜率会更高， $UNI的对冲单，我也会择机止盈 $BTC Big Brother Maji's positions just released! BTC short positions are making more and more profit, but HYPE shorts are still under pressure
Just dug up Big Brother Maji's perpetual positions, still the same old combo: BTC short, ETH long, HYPE short, with the account fluctuating clearly with the market.
Breaking it down simply for everyone:
✅ BTC short 40x full position
Shorted 243.96 BTC, position nearly 19.94 million U
Opened at 84070, currently floating profit 568,700 U, funding fee earned 64,100 U
Margin 498,500 U, liquidation price at 104380
✅ ETH long 25x full position
Holding 7222.28 ETH, position 17.43 million U
Opened at 2541.45, currently floating loss 922,700 U, funding fee still negative
Margin 697,300 U, liquidation price 1623.5
✅ HYPE short 5x full position
Shorted 268,300 HYPE, position a full 21.68 million U
Opened near 66.24, currently floating loss nearly 3.91 million U, luckily funding fee income of 1.042 million U offsets some
Margin 4.3363 million U, liquidation price 99.76
Can only say hedging positions are like fire and ice, making gains on one side while taking hits on the other. $BTC 🌅 Morning Five Group: BTC 81000, ETH 2437, SOL 104, OKB turns green, RE stays flat
$BTC 81888, down 1.85% 📉
CPI 3.7% beats expectations, dropped from 83600 to 81888. Total network liquidations 300 million, 170,000 people wiped out. But 81000 has support, after all the bad news, let's see if it can bounce back.
$ETH 2437, down 3.09% ⚡
ETH fell harder than BTC, with higher leverage. That whale with 15 consecutive wins opened a 60 million ETH long at 2437, betting the bad news is priced in.
$SOL 104.58, down 2.63% 🔷
SOL dropped from 107 to 104, high beta took the brunt on CPI night. Big players have been moving funds from SOL to BTC, accelerating today.
$OKB 124.87, up 3.04% 🟢
Green everywhere except OKB, funds are seeking refuge in platform tokens.
$RE 0.42230, down 1.17% 😴
Small RWA continues sideways.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#US September CPI rises to 3.7% YoY, core inflation beats expectations #Korean stocks rebound narrows after sharp drop, can semiconductor buying continue? Three Coins, Three Questions: What Really Drives Demand for $DOGE , $WLD , and $RENDER ? For $DOGE, the key question is how much genuine buying demand remains after the hype fades. Around 5 billion new DOGE are issued annually, meaning the total supply continues to grow, even as the annual issuance becomes a smaller percentage of the expanding supply over time. This does not automatically mean the price will fall, but it does create a continuing supply challenge. When evaluating payment adoption$ETH VanEck withdraws the S-1 filing for the Lido staked Ethereum ETF❗
Key distinction: the withdrawal is for the stETH ETF with staking rewards, not the regular ETH spot ETF.
There is significant controversy at the SEC regarding the classification of staking rewards as securities, and institutions judge that approval is unlikely in the short term, choosing to proactively withdraw. Regulatory thresholds for staking-based ETH products are much higher than for spot products.$ETH Tonight's CPI completely stunned the market, a definite one-shot knockout!
BTC is fighting a life-or-death battle at the 80,000 level, and ETH was the first to give in and just lie flat.
Remember one crucial data point: Core CPI at 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%.
This single number directly rewrites the entire market trend tonight.
As soon as the data came out, the whole market collectively plunged!
US Treasury yields surged instantly, with the 10-year jumping from 5.19 to 5.27.
BTC fell 1.2% accordingly, gold dropped 1%, and Nasdaq futures also plunged 0.8%.
Previously, only crypto and gold were falling,
but tonight even the US stock market couldn't hold up!
The market finally realizes: inflation can't be contained, and the Fed might continue raising rates.
Before the CPI release, BTC was hovering around 83,700, and ETH was weakly consolidating near 2,500, already very weak.
Once the negative news hit, prices dropped accordingly, and the bearish signals are fully exposed.
Honestly, the situation is very clear now:
If interest rates don't turn downward, BTC has no strength to rally.
Currently, watch for support at 81,500 below; if that doesn't hold, further consolidation is expected.
ETH's structure is weak by itself, and altcoins are collectively bleeding, with no profit potential.
Tonight, I'm strictly controlling myself from reckless trading.
Data never lies; losing money is always due to one's own wishful thinking.
When the market is weak, staying out and observing is the safest trade! $ETH Last night, the US September CPI was released: year-on-year 3.7%, core 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. The market pricing for the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of October jumped the probability of a rate hike from about 20% directly to 33%. The key is not the numbers themselves, but the narrative has changed — the discussion is no longer about "when to cut rates," but rather "whether to raise rates once more."
Bitcoin was pushed back near 81,700, and Ethereum fell even harder. In the short term, focus on two levels: if 79,140 holds, it can be considered a low-volume bottoming; if 84,040 is broken with volume, the rebound is confirmed. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million; institutions did not catch the falling knife this round, and large funds are also waiting for direction.
Which scenario do you lean towards: holding at 79,000 to bottom out, or first testing the lower 75,900? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Data is as of today and does not constitute investment advice. 📉$ETH ETF has had continuous outflows for 9 days, totaling 540 million in one week, but what I care about most is not this number
First, the numbers: The US spot ETH ETF has had net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling about 697 million USD. The outflow for the week ending October 9 was 542 million, the largest weekly outflow since late January.
The headline sounds alarming. I reviewed the details and found three things more worth mentioning than the total amount.
First, this week's outflow was dominated by BlackRock's ETHA, accounting for 477 million, nearly 90%.
It looks more like a large investor adjusting their portfolio, not the entire market running together. ETHA's cumulative net inflow is still around 12.9 billion, and this redemption is just a small part of it.
Second, the downside ⚠️
On October 7, all funds had net outflows, with no inflows at all. The amount was smaller than the previous day, but more funds had outflows. Looking only at the amount might suggest pressure is easing, but I actually dislike this detail.
Third, the funds are not leaving crypto; they are concentrating into BTC.
On October 6, ETH ETF outflowed 200 million, while on the same day BTC ETF inflowed 119 million. Big money is choosing sides, picking the "harder" one. This is unfavorable for ETH and altcoins. #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 CPI bearish news has landed, selling pressure remains: BTC, ETH, SOL, I continue to be bearish in the short term.
Last night, the US September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, core CPI year-on-year was 2.6%, both higher than expected. Inflation is rising, rate hike concerns are heating up, adding another layer of pressure to the crypto rebound.
My current personal view:
BTC｜Institutions buying, but selling hasn't stopped
Spot net outflow of $331 million
Futures net outflow of $659 million
Strive disclosed yesterday that it spent $235 million to buy a total of 2,822 BTC. The increase is positive, but active selling in spot and futures still dominates, so I remain cautious about the rebound.
ETH｜Futures warming up, spot not keeping up
Spot net outflow of $421 million
Futures net outflow of $1.018 billion
On the 13th, ETF net inflow was $24.8 million; on the 14th, partial disclosures show a tentative net outflow of $19.7 million. In the last 4 hours, futures net inflow was $123 million, spot still net outflow of $40.73 million, the rebound lacks spot support.
SOL｜Some support, no chasing the rally for now
Spot net inflow of $9.84 million
Futures net outflow of $7.73 million
Alpenglow plans to launch its mainnet on the 21st, spot buying is relatively stronger, we need to see if it can sustain.
I continue to lean bearish in the short term, mainly due to macro pressure and persistent spot selling pressure on BTC and ETH. If buying strength continues to improve later, I will adjust my view and not stubbornly open shorts.Last night's CPI surprise hammered the market down. Core CPI was pushed up to 2.6% by oil prices, causing US Treasury yields to jump, which scared off the funds.
Fortunately, $BTC had big holders stepping in, so it fell the least; but $ETH had no buying support and dropped badly; $SOL was even worse due to leveraged liquidations.
1. BTC on-chain whales hold 3.03 million coins. After the CPI release, some on-chain buyers scooped up several thousand BTC. The strong support at 82,000 was broken, but the dominance climbed to 59.8%, indicating that market money is clearly fleeing to BTC.
2. ETH fell the hardest this week, with its ETF seeing net outflows for nine consecutive days. The CPI was the last straw, scaring away two whales and pushing the coin price down 4%, effectively exposing the lack of buying support.
3. SOL was the worst hit last night because it lacks a spot base. The gains driven by leverage were shattered by the CPI shock, with 89% of liquidations being longs. Moreover, Nasdaq's treasury company had previously cut 1 million coins from its holdings, adding to the selling pressure.
Under these circumstances, it is recommended that everyone prioritize holding BTC! #US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations Today's core judgment The main theme today is very clear: U.S. inflation is accelerating again, pushing back the market's previously expected rapid easing. September CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month; the Fed's Beige Book also shows the economy is still growing, with persistent price pressures on businesses. However, crypto ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) have not continued to deteriorate in sync. On October 13, BTC saw a significant net inflow, ETH ended a streak of 10 consecutive trading days of outflows, with only SOL remaining weak. My judgment is: Macro pressure is clearly rising, but institutional funds have begun to diverge, so BTC, ETH, and SOL can no longer be uniformly understood as institutions withdrawing simultaneously. For OKB, Exchange OS (Exchange Operating System) entering spot and perpetual validation is an important product-level advancement, but value capture has yet to materialize. 1. ETF funds: BTC returning, ETH stabilizing, SOL still weak The latest complete data is still from October 13: BTC net inflow about $176 million, the most obvious capital return; ETH net inflow $24.8 million, ending 10 consecutive trading days of outflows; SOL net outflow about $1 million, still weak. The current structure has shifted from "three asset classes flowing out simultaneously" to BTC significantly improving, ETH initially stabilizing, and SOL continuing to lag. A single day turning positive does not yet prove institutions are continuously increasing positions again, but at least it shows ETF funds have not continued to deteriorate overall. 2. U.S. CPI: Inflation re-【$SOL is ready to make a big move, so why isn't the market responding?】
Solana has finally set the Alpenglow mainnet launch date: October 21. The goal is to reduce the transaction finality time from about 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, an improvement of nearly 99%. This directly replaces the TowerBFT consensus mechanism that has been used for years.
The awkward part is that despite the upgrade news, SOL has not been able to break into a strong rally. Around October 14, SOL hovered near $107, dropping about 9% over nearly 7 days, and the US spot SOL ETF also saw capital outflows. The technical upgrade is significant, but buying interest has not kept pace.
What should be most closely watched is whether the new mechanism can truly benefit payments, DeFi, and on-chain transactions. A 150-millisecond confirmation time is indeed attractive for high-frequency trading and payment settlements, but performance improvements do not equal a surge in fee revenue, nor do they mean SOL will immediately rise.
There is also a pitfall: after the upgrade, validator vote transactions will be moved out of blocks, which may cause a noticeable drop in on-chain transaction counts. We should be careful not to misinterpret this data decline as the ecosystem cooling down.
This upgrade is a long-term fundamental positive, but in the short term, it still lacks capital confirmation. If spot buying of SOL warms up before and after the upgrade and capital continues to flow in, the market will have a chance to follow through; otherwise, no matter how impressive the technical upgrade, it might just be a story the market has already priced in.Conclusion first: The first wave can be held, but today it is already very close to $80K, which is a position that must be closely watched. BTC fell from $83,445 yesterday to a low of $81,453, closing at $81,678, a single-day drop of -2.13%, with a trading volume of $516 million. This drop is due to CPI—US September CPI exceeded expectations, interest rate expectations tightened again, and risk assets collectively came under pressure. But BTC only fell 2.1%, making it the most resilient among mainstream coins. Look at the structure. Spot price is $81,678, perpetual contracts are aligned with no de-peg. Open interest is about $2.572 billion; funding rate is +0.00386%, slightly positive. Price down with slightly positive funding rate indicates leveraged longs have not massively exited, but it’s not crowded either. Structure is neutral. Look at the position. Currently at $81,678, it has broken below the 7-day moving average ($82,758), but remains above the 60-day moving average ($80,041). The 14-day high is $87,238, and the 14-day low is $80,400. That means $80K-$80.4K is its recent defensive line—this is both the 60-day moving average and the 14-day low, a double support. Market cap is $1.64 trillion, ranked number 1. On-chain MVRV Z-Score remains in the neutral to low range, not overvalued at the top, providing mid-term support. But short-term moving averages have broken, direction depends on macro factors. What about the short-term trend? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (35%) break below $80K, watch #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
Yesterday, the US CPI returned to 3.7%.
The market is once again worried that the days of tight money and high interest rates may last longer than expected.
📊 US September data released on October 14: More noteworthy is the core month-on-month: 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, unchanged from last month. It excludes food and energy, meaning the pressure cannot be explained by oil prices alone.
🧮 For US tech stocks, the first impact is on valuations.
The more a company relies on future profits, the more it fears sustained high interest rates: the same future earnings are worth less when discounted to today.
🏭 There is also financing pressure. AI business revenue can grow, but expanding data centers and purchasing computing power require capital. Rising financing costs will raise the investment return threshold.
⚖️ Therefore, I pay more attention to whether profits and cash flow can be realized.
💰 For cryptocurrencies, funding conditions are equally important.
Higher interest rate expectations increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets; when risk appetite declines, crypto assets may also be sold off.
⚠️ If price drops trigger leveraged long liquidations, forced selling could amplify volatility. But this is just a transmission mechanism.
🔮 Will interest rates continue to rise afterward? I consider three scenarios:
▪️ Inflation remains high and employment stays strong: the case for further rate hikes strengthens.
▪️ Inflation cools and demand slows: more likely to observe the effects of existing tightening, but a pause does not mean a rate cut.
▪️ High inflation with significantly weakening employment: policy becomes more difficult, and weak data is not necessarily good news for stocks or crypto. Negative factors concentrate in the Korean stock market, with foreign investors continuously selling off semiconductor leaders. Changxin's 4F² DRAM technology breakthrough impacts the valuation of Korean memory stocks, with Samsung dropping over 7% in a single day and SK Hynix falling over 8%.
KOSPI is highly dependent on semiconductors and has a high proportion of foreign investment; if the Nasdaq weakens, the risk of adjustment in the Korean stock market increases.
Note: Market analysis only, not investment advice.
#US September CPI year-on-year rises to 3.7%, core inflation exceeds expectations #Semiconductor sector concentrated sell-off, South Korea KOSPI falls over 6% #CPI Approaching, Funds Cautious, Market Recovery but Volume Insufficient, Awaiting Inflation Guidance
On-exchange funds remain cautious, short-term bottom-fishing has driven prices up from 80900 to around 83450, but rebound volume is shrinking as the market awaits inflation data. The CPI for September will be released tonight; the market expects inflation to rise, possibly hitting a five-month high month-over-month. This data will affect the rate cut expectations for the end of October, and risk assets may experience correlated volatility. In the short term, 84800 is the resistance level; if pressure holds, the market will be weak.
Tesla's website payment label change caused some emotional disturbance, but this is only a short-term news impact, not a fundamental shift, so the corresponding coin volatility is limited. Mainstream coins show differentiated elasticity; another mainstream coin is oscillating around the 2500 range with weak upward momentum, key support at 2450; Dogecoin is affected by news disturbance, with 0.08 as an important support level. The news impact is less significant than macro inflation and overall market trends.
If 82200 holds, the market still has room for oscillation and game play; if this support breaks, the 80900 and 80000 levels may be tested sequentially.
$BTC $DOGE $ETH Netflix's ad growth involves a rather lively and easily misread figure.
The company recently disclosed that the number of ad campaigns conducted in the Japanese market from January to September this year increased about 12 times year-over-year. This indeed indicates that more brands are starting to try advertising on Netflix. But the number of campaigns doesn't tell us the size of each budget, whether clients renewed, nor can it be directly written as a 12-fold global ad revenue increase.
Regarding advertising, I am willing to keep watching. A brand might try advertising once due to a new platform, new show, or an event; will they pay again next season? This question concerns me even more than the multiple increase in campaign numbers. Starting from a small base, early numbers can look impressive, but later it depends on actual results to retain budgets.
Netflix's explanation in Japan also mentioned that the same ad creative is shown no more than once per hour and is arranged as much as possible at natural breaks in the storyline. This detail interests me even more. Users come for the content; if ads are too packed, the short-term gain from selling more slots might have to be paid back with lost viewing time.
Looking ahead to the earnings report, I want to know if ad revenue growth can keep pace with viewing experience and client renewals. After subscription growth slows, having an additional revenue source is certainly promising, but the platform cannot treat members merely as repeatedly sold attention. Only if brands are willing to renew and viewers are willing to stay can advertising have a chance to become a long-term supplement.
#NetflixGrowthOrSlowdown, advertising business becomes a new focus