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#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls are very likely to further solidify the expectation of a rate hike in December; what could truly change market pricing is not "whether there will be a rate hike," but "whether there will be more hikes and if rates will stay high for longer."
The market has already highly priced in a December rate hike
As of November 5, CME FedWatch shows about an 81.5% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in December, with the probability of no change dropping to 18.5%. This means the market has taken the December rate hike as the baseline scenario rather than a low-probability event. $XAU $BTC #Sony Q2 Operating Profit Grows 45%, Raises Full-Year Performance Guidance
#Sony's Earnings Exceed Expectations! Operating Profit Soars 45%, Has the Real Money-Making Machine Changed?
Sony has delivered a rather impressive report card.
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, revenue increased 10% year-over-year to ¥3.43 trillion; operating profit rose 45% year-over-year to ¥622.3 billion, and net profit grew 44%.
More importantly, Sony directly raised its full-year operating profit forecast to ¥1.87 trillion.
But I believe the most noteworthy aspect of this earnings report is not the 45% figure, but the source of the profit growth.
Operating profit from the gaming business increased 83%, and operating profit from the film business surged 568%. The box office contribution from "Spider-Man: A New Day," combined with growth in PlayStation Network services and game software revenue, is turning Sony's content ecosystem into a profit engine.
This indicates a trend: in the future, Sony may no longer just sell TVs, cameras, and game consoles, but will continuously harvest content value through games, movies, music, and IP.
However, don't overlook the concerns: PS5 shipments this quarter dropped to 2.6 million units, down from 4 million units in the same period last year. With hardware growth slowing, whether content can continue to take over is the key for the next phase.
My view is: Sony's true value lies not just in hardware, but in the content assets it holds that can be monetized repeatedly. #Stripe stablecoin payments cover more than 160 markets
The boss has something to say
I view this news separately from tonight's market: Stripe's Global Payouts now supports US companies sending USDC and OUSD stablecoins directly to crypto wallets in over 160 markets, still in public preview; Visa is promoting USDC cross-border prepaid, Mastercard is expanding fiat and stablecoin settlements. Interestingly, the initiators behind OUSD are Coinbase, Mastercard, Shopify, Stripe, and Visa themselves—this is not just one company trying out a new toy, but the entire traditional payment circle working together to make stablecoins the default track for corporate payments.
My interpretation: this is a signal of infrastructure development, not a switch for market trends. Minute-level settlement, transparent fees, coverage of 160 markets solve the real pain points of cross-border B2B payments; but the bigger the stablecoin, the more it shows that on-chain settlement is becoming as essential as utilities like water, electricity, and gas, rather than indicating BTC will rise tomorrow. If you want to watch something, watch on-chain stablecoin settlement volume and Stripe's actual GMV after public preview, not the news headlines.
$ETH
BTC fell back below $80,000 tonight, I continue to stay out and watch. My approach: the $80,000 round number has shifted from support to resistance, wait for stabilization between 79,000–79,500 to buy more, continue waiting if it falls below 78,960. The stablecoin story is a slow money story, and I manage my position accordingly; $BTC $ZEC The simultaneous evening decline indicates a continued downtrend! $BTC is on hold for now, $ETH short positions are still held, and $ZEC has opened 5 new short positions to keep going! Let's go, short army brothers!
The evening market turned weak, BTC is currently at 79369.95, up 1.24% in 24 hours; ETH at 2379.76, up 2.60%; ZEC at 1301.76, up 1.76%. I still maintain a bearish perspective, but it looks more like an intraday pullback after a previous violent rebound, so we can't take a single bearish candle as proof of a "continued downtrend."
BTC daily MACD is still a death cross, the super trend is at 82920.26 and pointing downward, and near 79300 it has returned between the 7-day moving average at 78208.95 and the 25-day moving average at 80589.43; ETH has pulled back but its MACD just formed a golden cross, and the price remains above the 7-day moving average at 2301.31. ZEC is even stronger: MACD golden cross, bullish moving average alignment, and net capital inflow intraday, which differs from the capital outflows of BTC and ETH.
Therefore, I regard 76500, 2260, and 1170 as observation zones to see if weakness expands, rather than fixed "small targets." If BTC and ETH rebound but volume continues to shrink and short-term moving averages are lost again, the bearish structure will be more convincing; if ZEC continues to outperform the market, the logic of all three coins "falling together" will be weakened. Public news still revolves around reserve proof expansion, Hong Kong's crypto asset reporting framework, and risk appetite fluctuations caused by US political events.Coincheck announced that due to a failure in an external on-chain analysis service, processing of cryptocurrency deposit and withdrawal requests has been delayed since 0:04 on November 5 Japan time. The platform has suspended accepting new withdrawal requests; some pending requests have been canceled, while others will be retained for re-review after the system is restored.
If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if the platform restricts withdrawals due to an external service failure, trigger an "abnormal fund availability" observation rather than immediately labeling it as insolvent. As I am new to quantitative analysis, I must remind myself that triggering a condition is not equivalent to a conclusion. 🤖
I believe this is a negative signal for the platform's service reliability and has a more direct impact on users needing to transfer assets out. The fact that the blockchain itself can operate does not mean the platform's deposit and withdrawal channels can function; external analysis services can also become bottlenecks, which is an item I would add to the risk checklist.
The advantage of this rule is that it shifts attention from price back to whether funds are available. The flaw is obvious: suspending withdrawals alone cannot explain the severity of the failure, and canceling some requests may increase the cost for users to confirm their status; we cannot just focus on the word "recovery."
My subsequent observation conditions will be: whether new requests are reopened, how backlog requests are handled, and whether the cause of the failure is explained. If you were to write this condition yourself, would you treat "reopening withdrawals" as clearing the alert, or wait until the backlog requests are also processed?$TAO has dropped 70% from its peak, but Bittensor subnet revenue has doubled in two months:
1. According to SubConnect statistics, the subnet's external revenue annualized increased from about $35 million in early September to about $50 million in October, and now about $70 million;
2. The growth mainly comes from subnets selling computing power and inference, with Lium, Targon, and Engy ranking top three, accounting for about 80% in computing power and infrastructure categories;
3. Compared to the TAO issuance of over $300 million annually, current revenue only covers less than a quarter; SubConnect expects the annualized revenue to possibly exceed $100 million by the end of the year.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？
The market turmoil is still entangling SpaceX.
After the midterm election results came out, the stock price came under pressure, and the uncertainties around regulation and merger have been amplified.
ARK made a counter-trend move to increase its position, which gave some investors a bit of confidence.
But short-term sentiment is hard to reverse all at once; the follow-up still depends on policy direction and the pace of financing progress.The jobs report is about to give the market another reason to rethink its rate expectations.
With December hike odds already above 70%, a strong payroll number could reinforce the hawkish outlook, push Treasury yields higher and put fresh pressure on Bitcoin, gold and growth stocks.
But the headline number won't tell the whole story. Wage growth and unemployment will be just as important in determining how the Fed interprets the labour market.
#USJobsReportInFocus The midterm outcome has delivered a clean natural experiment in political-risk pricing. Democrats won control of both chambers, and the market did not treat it as a broad crypto verdict. $BTC held near eighty thousand dollars, a show of resilience that suggests the bearish scenario was already in the price. Funds had concluded that no immediate anti-industry bill would land, and with US Treasury yields falling, the wider market rebounded. The damage was concentrated where the narrative had been $12 million market cap, ranked beyond 700 — Is CORE turning into a "zombie coin"?
Once hailed as the BTCFi leader, CORE's circulating market cap has now dropped to about $12 million, with its coin ranking falling to around 700. More and more investors are starting to discuss: is it heading towards zombification? ❌ Major signs of zombification
First, value capture ability is almost ineffective. On-chain gas revenue is extremely low, unable to provide positive support for the token; tokens have been continuously released for 81 years, causing long-term inflationary pressure. The original burn mechanism was adjusted, and the project's promised buybacks are not contractually guaranteed. Second, the sector is squeezed by competitors. Babylon and Merlin are capturing BTCFi sector funds and users, while CORE's decentralization controversy with only 21 validator nodes persists, and institutional funds continue to withdraw. Third, liquidity continues to shrink, some exchanges have delisted trading pairs, order book depth has thinned, and large trades suffer huge slippage. Although the public chain can still produce blocks normally, ecosystem activity is sluggish, with weak growth in on-chain users and TVL.
Zombie coins do not mean immediate zero value. As long as there is some trading and DEX channels for circulation, the token will maintain weak transactions; but the biggest risk is the long-term lack of buyers, gradually falling into a state of having value but no market, making exit costs increasingly high. 💡Insight Many confuse "whether the public chain can operate" with "whether the token has investment value." After the narrative fades, no cash flow support, long-term inflation, and liquidity exhaustion are typical characteristics of a project turning into a zombie.A slightly different perspective: At the end of 2023, Trump's successful election did indeed bring a peak to the cryptocurrency market, but this peak ended in 2024. Trump did not bring any real benefits to the crypto industry afterward; instead, his recklessness caused a major market crash.
For example, the 2024 trade war, also known as the tariff war, caused both the stock market and cryptocurrencies to plummet wildly. It was around that time that TACO gradually emerged. 2025 was originally looking good, but then this guy got arrogant again and provoked Iran.
If we talk purely about the cryptocurrency field, many of Trump's previous promises did not materialize. The only real achievement was having SEC, CFTC, and a group of White House officials who were relatively friendly to cryptocurrencies. That is true, but these people did not make any actual contributions. It was precisely because Trump treated cryptocurrencies as a cash cow that not only the Democrats but also many within the Republican Party became dissatisfied.
He also said he would make the US have the lowest electricity prices to support mining, but now many Bitcoin mining farms in the US have switched to AI, and the US's computing power is continuously declining.
Regarding strategic reserves, it is true that the US has not sold $BTC in the past two years, but this is not the reason many companies use Bitcoin for strategic holdings. The main reason is that $MSTR is too simple, and the entire DAT became popular. As a result, only a few have survived until now, and those that have are doing reasonably well but are not many. $XAUT US market analysis: Gold, this morning's early session relied on 4146 for consecutive gains, moving upward. The European session showed high-level fluctuations. After the US market opened, the unemployment claims report was bearish. The planned short at 4126 successfully dropped to 4114 for profit-taking. Then it dipped to 4111 before rebounding to close positive. The market showed good resilience against declines. The original plan was to go long at 4100, but it seems there won't be an opportunity. Being a bit more aggressive in the US session, I went long directly at 4122, with a stop loss at 4107 and a target of 4146-50!For short-term ETH trading, pay attention to the rhythm of "breakout—pullback—then increased volume" rather than chasing on the first bullish candle.📉 $ZEC : Leaning Short Into NU7 (small size)
NU7 goes live in hours. ZEC already pumped ~9%, so "sell the news" is possible. 1H rejected at 1,351, 15m resistance at 1,308–1,313. ETF assets fell $1B ➜ $710M.
🔴 Entry: 1,306–1,315
🛑 SL: 1,340 (1H close)
🎯 TP: 1,287 / 1,276 / 1,250
🟢 1H close above 1,340 = I'm wrong, I exit.
⚠️ 4H trend is still bullish. Low leverage, risk 1%.
Breakout or pullback? 👇
Not financial advice. #ZEC #USJobsReportInFocus $ZEC $APT — Aptos
Blockchain scalability is not simply about processing more transactions; reliability and developer experience matter equally. Aptos uses the Move programming language and focuses on high-performance execution. Its ecosystem development deserves monitoring through developer participation, application diversity, network activity, and sustainable adoption.MRNA 盘子的线是GAAP每股-1.28。Alpha Vantage汇总的15家平均是-1.2829，跟线几乎一样，FactSet是-1.10，Zacks是-1.37，线正好夹在中间。 一季度那份财报里，有一笔跟Arbutus、Genevant的诉讼和解，摊到每股2.22，那季GAAP亏到了3.40。7月公司付了9.5亿现金，CFO Jamey Mock在二季度电话会上说，这笔会体现在三季度的现金余额里。费用一季度已经记过，三季度利润表里只剩每季几百万的摊销。 费用才是这季的变数。不算诉讼那笔，全年GAAP费用指引是47亿，上半年花了18.6亿左右，下半年还剩28.4亿，比上半年多五成多。三季度要是花12.8亿左右，每股在-0.91上下。花到14.2亿，就是-1.26左右，已经贴着线。营收再只有8.3亿，就掉到线下面。 几处小账都是帮忙的。公司说今年的税negligible，9月交割的30亿可转债是零利率，几乎不加利息成本，员工行权让股数多了一点，亏损摊得更薄。 尾部风险在和解本身。和解里还挂着一笔或有款，最多再付13亿，要看一项上诉怎么判，还没判。这季要是计提，这条线就守不住。 两$BTC is approaching a key supply zone, with $81,500–$82,000 becoming the focal point of the bulls and bears battle!
Bitcoin is currently testing an important supply area above, where strong selling pressure exists, potentially becoming a significant resistance for short-term gains.
For the bulls, this is a critical test.
If BTC can break through $82,000 with volume and successfully hold above after the breakout, the market is likely to enter a new upward phase.
But if it encounters selling pressure again, caution is needed for a possible price pullback.
Key points to watch next:
* $81,500: initial resistance.
* $82,000: key breakout level.
* Volume breakout and hold: bulls gain further control.
* Breakout failure: beware of false breakouts and corrections.
Don't chase the breakout moment; waiting for a close confirmation is crucial.
Do you think BTC can successfully break through 82K this time?
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #OKXOrbitTopics ETH short-term volatility has increased, but ETF funding is not yet fully stable, so the sustainability of the rebound should be viewed cautiously.80,000 gained and lost, sideways for a day, the direction chosen is down
BTC 79,508, stayed above 80,000 sideways during the day, broke down at night; ETH 2,385, SOL 95.2, all three coins moving down together.
The push is before the market opens. Semiconductor stocks are all down: Qualcomm down nearly 10%, ASE down over 8%, SK Hynix and ARM down over 6%, Nasdaq futures down 0.77%. Two underlying reasons: after Democrats took Congress, AI regulation may tighten; Goldman Sachs says 45% of data center expansions face policy risks; monetary policy is tight, no hope for rate cuts.
Morningstar puts it bluntly: post-election optimism is fading.
But don’t rush to one-sided conclusions. Dow futures are still up 0.5%, funds are rotating from tech stocks to blue chips, so it’s not a full panic; BTC support at 78,713 with 15.2 million not broken, tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls may be weak and could pull it back.
$BTC C 79,508, support at 78,713 with 15.2 million, further down at 76,526 with 35.3 million.
$ETH 2,385, support at 2,367 with 11.7 million, further down at 2,302.
$SOL 95.2, next support at 93.77.
Tomorrow’s big nonfarm payrolls, the test is just beginning.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ BTC/ETH Evening Observation on November 5
At 22:00 Beijing Time, $BTC at 79645, $ETH at 2388. Both coins' hourly charts show increased volume and have fallen below the 7 and 20 moving averages; the four-hour chart is still closing on a pullback.
ETH's full daily candle remains above the 20-day moving average, while BTC is still suppressed by this line.
In the next 24–48 hours, the trend is likely to continue digesting gains:
BTC first targets 79500; if the four-hour candle closes below, then look at 78700;
ETH first targets 2380; if it closes below, then look at 2358.
If each consecutively closes two hourly candles back above BTC 80400 and ETH 2420, it indicates selling pressure has eased, then look towards 80960 and 2451.
The above represents only personal observation and prediction, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $TON — Toncoin
Blockchain adoption increasingly depends on applications that people can access without complicated technical processes. TON benefits from its connection to Telegram's application ecosystem. The key indicators to follow are developer activity, application engagement, network reliability, and meaningful onchain transactions rather than attention alone.IREN's GAAP EPS is -0.46, and printing -0.45 or better counts as a beat. This number looks like Wall Street's expectation, but it's actually the adjusted figure. Zacks' adjusted estimate 30 days ago was exactly -0.46, now it's -0.49. Others are worse: FactSet's GAAP estimate is -0.72, Seeking Alpha is -0.76 without specifying the basis, Koyfin's adjusted is -0.67, and the most optimistic one in Alpha Vantage is only -0.51; none reach -0.46. There's a big gap between adjusted and GAAP. According to Alpha Vantage's recorded adjusted actuals, IREN's GAAP EPS in the past three quarters was even lower by 0.49, 0.58, and nearly 1.4 in June. That quarter alone recorded a 450 million impairment, and the fair value of mining machines dropped by another 100 million. Roughly calculated with 395 million shares, to print -0.45, the net loss this quarter must be less than 180 million. FactSet's -0.72 corresponds to a loss of about 285 million, so it needs to beat by over 100 million. Factors pushing upward include Bitcoin rising from 58,559 at the end of June to 83,554 at the end of September, an increase of over 40%, possibly replenishing some fair value of mining machines for sale. Cash on hand was 7.6 billion at the end of June, with interest income roughly tens of millions per quarter. The number of shares increased due to issuance and acquisitions, so the same loss spread over more shares results in a smaller per-share loss. Pulling downward are expenses. The company said this quarter's cash outflow... Evening session on November 5 | The 80,000 level lost, retreating before the non-farm payrolls
BTC 79,447 (-1.02%): After surging to 81,199, it fell back losing the 80,000 mark; MA20 (80,293) has turned into resistance, with 79,000 as short-term strong support. 21shares states BTC volatility is now lower than Tesla's, indicating cautious capital competition.
ETH 2,380 (-1.85%): Broke below the 2,400 level, with clear resistance at 2,416 above. The key defense line below is 2,313. Polygon plans to integrate a security council to unify multisig, and ecosystem development is still ongoing.
ZEC 1,304 (-0.13%): NU7 upgrade activated at block 3,543,405, reducing block time to 25 seconds. However, after the positive news, the market stagnated; resistance above at 1,352, short-term defense below at 1,308, beware of a "sell the fact" pullback.
On the macro side, after the midterm elections, the market enters a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" phase, focusing on Friday's non-farm payrolls; if the data is hot, it will strengthen rate hike expectations. BTC briefly reclaimed and lost 80,000, ZEC's upgrade day saw stagnation, will you dare to hold positions overnight before the non-farm?
Defense bottom lines: 79,000 (BTC), 2,313 (ETH), 1,308 (ZEC).
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Many Meme coins plummet like free fall because during the drop, they can only rely on the project team's verbal promise to buy back, and the scale of funds and whether it is executed cannot be verified. $HBTC deducts a 2% maintenance bounty from the buyer and seller fees, and the remaining 98% is fully invested into Burn Net, placing seven layers of passive buy orders below the market price, roughly corresponding to 5%/10%/15%/20%/30%/40%/50% below the pegged price; the pegged price is taken as the lower of the "last closing price" and the block TWAP, and will only adjust downward, never upward. It only places orders and does not chase prices, so it will not actively create volatility. How much ETH remains in the wall, where the pegged price is, and the coverage rate are all publicly verifiable numbers!BTC fell back to $79,000 tonight, and the daytime strength is being reassessed!
On the evening of November 5, the latest BTC quote was $79,404, up 1.32% in 24 hours, with a high of $81,196 and a low of $78,320.
One detail worth noting:
During the day, BTC was still repeatedly contesting above $80,000, but now it has fallen back to around $79,400.
From the 24-hour high, the retracement is close to $1,800.
This means that although the 24-hour gain is still positive, the advantage of short-term buying has clearly weakened.
What is most worth watching now is whether effective support can form around $79,000.
If the price continues to probe lower and breaks below the low near $78,300, short-term adjustment pressure may increase further.
But if it can quickly recover above $80,000, it indicates that there is still capital willing to buy on the dip.
Personally, I am not in a hurry to judge bull or bear now, but more focused on the nature of this pullback.
Is it a normal profit-taking during an uptrend, or a trend weakening after a failed rally?
The upcoming price performance will provide more clues.
The most worth discussing question today: BTC breaking below $80,000 again, is it a buying opportunity or a risk signal?
$BTC $BTC climbed out of the deep pit at 75,690 with just a V-shaped rebound, pushing the price back above 81,000, reaching a high of 81,199 — but what’s truly worth pondering is not the rebound itself, but the market’s sequence of first dumping then buying after the result of a “Democratic sweep of both chambers” was confirmed. At the moment the election results were announced, $BTC briefly fell below 76,000, then was quickly bought back. This “sell the news, then buy it back” pattern indicates one thing: traders are pricing not the election outcome itself, but whether crypto regulatory legislation will be dragged into a longer dispute cycle as a result. The risk has returned, but policy uncertainty remains. In this round, two pre-set buy orders at 77,300 and 76,188 were filled one after another, with the second only triggered after the price dipped near 75,690. This detail is more honest than any indicator: at the most pessimistic moment, no one knew how deep the bottom was, and the plan to build positions in batches effectively turned “guessing the bottom” into “catching the fall.” Now both positions are in profit, and the real test has shifted from “daring to buy” to “holding on.” The 1-hour Bollinger Bands middle line is at 78,993, the upper band at 81,420; the price has returned to a strong zone but is also right at the pressure edge of the upper band — this position most easily tempts people to chase the “big bullish candle,” which is the classic path from floating profit to floating loss. My judgment is: the core contradiction of this market move is not whether the bulls can push higher, but whether there is enough turnover above 81,000 to absorb the profit-taking.For BTC, the $81,300–$82,000 region is now an important test.
Reclaiming that zone with sustained spot demand would strengthen the recovery argument. Getting rejected there could leave this as another relief rally within a broader corrective structure.
The election uncertainty has faded, but the market still needs fresh demand to turn this rebound into something more sustainable.
Price recovery is one thing. Trend confirmation is another.
#DemocratsWinHouseSenate Put option demand remains high; the market is trading the rebound on one hand while maintaining defense on the other.My first reaction when seeing this was: 60% of adults' money can be frozen just like that.
What we usually fear is the coin dropping; if it drops, at least it's still in the account and you can wait. A bank closing is a different matter — the numbers remain, but the door is gone.
So when something like this happens, $USDT always gets snatched up first. It's not that everyone suddenly favors stablecoins, but at least they can be transferred out. The same goes for $BTC; whether it rises or not, the fact that it isn't controlled by anyone is valuable in itself.
The word "custody" is convenient on normal days, but on the day something goes wrong, it becomes a critical vulnerability.All liquidations were longs, but the price didn't crash?
$BTC: Grinding all day, easing up in the evening
$79,778, 24h +1.76%, long-short ratio 1.63 (1.55 4h ago), open interest $2.7B. In the last 4h, long liquidations of 3.817M U, short liquidations 42K U. Broke below $80,000 at 20:00, bottomed at $79,538, longs liquidated but price didn't collapse; if $80,000 isn't reclaimed, momentum won't pick up.
$ETH: The leader, softened in the evening
$2,389, 24h +2.92%, long-short ratio 1.58 (1.56 4h ago), open interest $1.55B. In the last 4h, long liquidations 2.204M U, short liquidations 20K U. Evening retraced between $2,385–$2,421, failed to reach $2,450.79; if $2,380 doesn't hold, expect a drop to $2,350.
$SOL: Grinding all day, followed downward in the evening
$95.43, 24h +2.56%, long-short ratio 3.14 (3.05 4h ago), open interest $330M. In the last 4h, long liquidations 453K U, short liquidations nearly zero. Evening low $94.92, $95 still holding; losing it would look bad.
Summary: 6.518M liquidations in last 4h, longs 6.474M, shorts 44K.
Liquidations heavily skewed to longs, price steady; let's see if anyone steps in tonight.
For market record only, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH $SOL #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ The SNDK/USDT game essentially pits the “AI storage long-term logic” against the “NAND cycle peak concerns.” The bulls’ cards are clear: data center SSD volume growth, long-term contract lock-up, buybacks plus 1-for-8 stock split, forward PE compressed to single digits, combined with expectations of NAND supply-demand tightness continuing through 2027–2028, with funds stepping in on sharp dips.
The bears are well-armed: the stock price’s several-fold increase over the past year has already priced in the boom, consumer demand is weak, Kioxia/Changjiang Storage are expanding capacity, supply loosens after 2027, and long-term contract floor coverage is limited. Any signal of “price increase slowing” will trigger valuation cuts. On the contract side, there is also the added pressure of high funding fees on USDT perpetuals and crowded longs—liquidations during rebounds are more severe than in spot.
The current price range ($1000–1100) is not black or white: both sides are waiting for the next catalyst—NAND spot prices, next quarter guidance, and liquidity after the stock split. In the short term, it’s a tug-of-war between “oversold recovery vs. downtrend continuation”; in the mid-term, the fate hinges on whether the unit price can hold in 2027. The conclusion of the game: the long-term logic remains intact, but marginal pricing power lies with the bears. Until the rebound breaks key resistance, don’t treat contracts as if they were equity to hold to death. The market has moved quite a bit since this was posted, and BTC's reaction is becoming clearer.
After briefly dropping to around $75,600 following the election results, Bitcoin has recovered above $80,000, with ETH pushing above $2,400 and SOL reclaiming the $95 area.
A few things are driving this recovery:
#DemocratsWinHouseSenate Sixty percent of a country's adult population's deposits turned overnight into a string of inaccessible numbers.
Paraguay's Ueno Bank closed due to a solvency crisis, freezing user deposits and sparking public protests. It's not a small institution—about 60% of Paraguayan adults have had accounts there. So the problem isn't just one bank failing, but that the payment channels for most people were cut off simultaneously.
Let's look at the mechanism. The direct consequence of frozen deposits isn't a book loss, but zero liquidity: salaries can't be received, bills can't be paid, merchants don't get money. The system is stuck here, and people need to survive, so they must find a clearing path that doesn't rely on this bank. Historically, every such event pushes some people toward two things—USD stablecoins and self-custody wallets.
Now the transmission. $USDT was grabbed first because it serves a payment function, not an investment function. $BTC lagged behind; it serves an exit function. Their rhythms differ, so the first day's trends often don't follow the same curve. $ETH comes later, benefiting from ecosystem spillover rather than acting as a safe haven itself.
My judgment: this kind of market movement is a pulse, not a trend. The real variable isn't price, but where Paraguayans will open accounts and exchange currency next. If within a week there is a public quote showing an over-the-counter premium for stablecoins, that would be a structural signal.
One question remains: when a bank's solvency can drop to zero overnight, is the portion of your money that you think you can "withdraw anytime" really available anytime? $HBTC Many Meme coins crash like free fall because during the decline, they can only rely on the project team's verbal promise to buy back, and the scale of funds and whether execution occurs cannot be verified. $HBTC deducts 2% from the buyer and seller fees as maintenance bounty, and the remaining 98% is fully invested into Burn Net, placing seven layers of passive buy orders below the market price, roughly corresponding to 5%/10%/15%/20%/30%/40%/50% below the pegged price; the pegged price is taken as the lower of the "last closing price" and the block TWAP, only adjusting downward, never upward. It only places orders and does not chase prices, so it does not actively create volatility. How much ETH remains in the wall, where the pegged price is, and the coverage rate are all publicly verifiable numbers.$VVV — Venice
Privacy is becoming an important consideration in decentralized AI. Venice focuses on private AI access, while VVV provides a staking mechanism connected to API inference capacity. Its longer-term relevance depends on actual developer usage, demand for private inference, and sustainable ecosystem participation. $BTC Nonfarm payrolls are imminent. Can the employment data strengthen the expectation of a December rate hike?
The market currently treats this nonfarm report as a key litmus test for a December rate hike, but in my view, a single employment report is unlikely to directly determine a rate hike; it more so shifts the short-term balance of expectations. If both new jobs and wage growth exceed expectations while the unemployment rate remains low, it will directly confirm the strong resilience of the U.S. economy, indicating that wage inflation pressure has not eased. The CME rate hike probability will quickly rise, U.S. Treasury yields will climb, risk assets will come under pressure, and BTC and growth stocks will likely face a round of profit-taking. However, if employment falls significantly short of expectations and wage growth cools, the market will immediately lower its rate hike bets and may even reprice for a longer period of unchanged rates, giving risk assets some breathing room.
There is an easily overlooked point here: the Federal Reserve currently prioritizes inflation, with employment serving only as supporting evidence. Even if the nonfarm report is strong, as long as the core PCE does not rebound simultaneously afterward, officials still have reason to choose to wait and see; conversely, if employment weakens slightly but inflation remains stubborn, hawkish statements will not disappear. Additionally, attention should be paid to revisions of previous values; often, the surface data looks mediocre, but the upward revisions to labor market heat are what truly influence the Fed's judgment. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC is bouncing, but is the recovery real?
$BTC is back above $80K, while $ETH jumped 7% in a day. Everyone is calling the bottom, but the volume tells a different story.
Prices are rising, yet trading volume remains weak. This suggests the move is driven more by short liquidations than fresh buying pressure.
Simply put, this looks more like a short squeeze than a confirmed trend reversal. Without strong volume, the rally could lose momentum just as quickly as it started.
#DailyOrbit AAOI 二季度GAAP亏了2,280万美元，non-GAAP却赚了550万。中间加回去的，股权激励486万，停产产品相关的两项合计470万，非经常性费用474万，最大的一项是“以上项目的税务影响”，加回了1,426万，摊到每股是0.18。 新闻稿对这一项只写了算法，按估的全年有效税率去算。8月电话会上CFO说，那季比指引好，主要靠海外的税收优惠和少量政府补贴，而且后面几季还会有。粗算一下，不算这笔税，non-GAAP的税前其实是亏的，亏750万左右。 所以这次的调整后利润，第一个要看的是税。盘子看的是non-GAAP，线是0.08，要印出0.09。公司8月给三季度的指引是non-GAAP每股0.11到0.26，按9,280万股算，净利1,010万到2,400万。 股数比指引用的多。10月5日公司公告，这一轮在市场上一共卖了5,694,845股，按时间推，大半在季内卖出，三季度摊薄股数粗算在9,400万到9,600万。按9,500万股算，non-GAAP净利要到810万左右才印得出0.09，比指引下沿低两成。 要印不出0.09，得几样一起差，营收落到2.55亿的下沿，毛利率掉到29%以[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Today Pharaoh sipped coffee while watching a spectacle: AI giant Anthropic is planning the "largest IPO in history," but Wall Street institutions slapped the valuation down from nearly 2 trillion to 1.5–1.6 trillion USD. A price cut of 400 to 500 billion, Pharaoh exclaimed like a pro: this isn’t an IPO, it’s like Pinduoduo’s hundred-billion subsidies being slashed onto AI.
Why the cut? Just look at the financials. Q3 revenue was $17 billion, with quarter-over-quarter growth dropping from 144% to 47%, a halving of growth; compute spending soared to 9.9 billion in a single quarter, with every $1 invested in compute generating only $1.72 in revenue, worse than last quarter. Even scarier, there are already $895.4 billion in compute purchase commitments signed, with $69.8 billion due in the next 12 months alone.
The causal chain is clear: AI valuations get pressured ➡️ market cracks the faith in "infinite money burn for growth" ➡️ tech stock risk appetite cools further ➡️ incremental funds hesitate to rush into the most crowded AI track. But here’s a subtle reversal — over the past year AI has been a black hole, sucking all liquidity into compute infrastructure. If AI valuations start to recede, marginally it might squeeze some funds out of the "AI faith," forcing them to seek the next narrative. Not necessarily bad for BTC, but it will take time, not something to realize tonight. $BTC $SOL #Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 Is this really a market recovery, or just a short squeeze?
$BTC has climbed back above $80,000, and $ETH has surged 7% in a single day. Many in the market are already claiming the bottom has formed, but the trading volume tells a different story.
Prices are rising, yet trading volume remains weak. This could mean that this rebound is driven more by shorts being forced to cover than by a large influx of new capital.
A short squeeze can indeed push prices up quickly in a short time, but without strong volume to back it, such a rally may be hard to sustain.
Don’t be fooled by the screen full of green candles.
A true market reversal requires confirmation from price, volume, and capital flow together.
Do you think this is the start of a bull market reversal, or just a brief short squeeze?
#BTC #ETH #ShortSqueeze #CryptoMarket #DailyOrbit Is this really a market recovery, or just a short squeeze?
$BTC is back above $80K, while $ETH has gained 7% in a day. Everyone is calling it a bottom, but the volume tells a different story.
Prices are rising, yet trading volume remains weak. This suggests short sellers are being forced to close positions rather than fresh money entering the market.
A short squeeze can push prices up quickly, but without strong volume, the rally may not last.
Don't get fooled by green candles.
#DailyOrbit [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Last night, Pharaoh watched helplessly as crude oil bulls were "liquidated with one click." The Democrats swept both chambers in the midterm elections, and Vice President Pence directly blamed the defeat on the Iran war. The market instantly bet that "the war is ending soon"—Brent crude gave back over $20 in three days, breaking below $95, and WTI also dropped to around $87.
The causal chain is clear: midterm election shift ➡️ war funding cut off ➡️ geopolitical premium trampled and given back ➡️ oil price plummets ➡️ inflation expectations cool down ➡️ easing pressure on rate hikes ➡️ risk assets catch a breather and rebound. Bitcoin briefly followed the US stock market back above 81,300 on Wednesday, with the logic being "oil price drop = inflation easing = Pharaoh softens." But note, oil prices erased most of the war premium in two days; the market priced in a "ceasefire" all at once, so if negotiations drag on, rebounds will come quickly.
Back to the 79,600 level: short-term looks like a recovery rebound, but don’t mistake "good news" for a "reversal."
Tomorrow night’s nonfarm payrolls are the main event: tonight’s oil price boost is "emotional level," real liquidity pricing is at 21:30 tomorrow. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won’t get lost! #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元 $BTC Looking at this weekly chart, I, the old pig, really feel a chill in my heart. It has fallen below 79,500; the repeated warnings we made before that “if 82,000 can’t hold, it will have to drop” have now all come true. This trend is no joke; the daily-level correction has completely escalated.
Look at these consecutive bearish candles on the weekly chart. The previous surge to 87,374 completely drained the bulls’ enthusiasm, and now it’s all trapped positions crushed from above. The price is barely holding on the precarious defense line between EMA50 (78,583) and EMA100 (78,950), but anyone with eyes can see that the bulls can’t organize an effective counterattack, and volume has shrunk terribly. This is not a healthy shakeout; it’s a real withdrawal of funds.
At this position, the orange box below (roughly between 64,000 and 74,000) is the harsh reality we have to face next. It’s both the middle band support of the weekly BOLL (around 73,829) and the bottom of the previous consolidation box where chips were densely exchanged. If this week can’t reclaim the 78,500 moving average defense line, testing the orange box is a high-probability event.
The old pig says: this wave of short covering impulses is completely over; now it’s a long, slow decline back to value. Don’t think it’s cheap just because it’s dropped to the seventy-thousands; until the trend is over, every rebound is just a chance to escape. Be patient, wait until it hits the orange box area, and see if it can stabilize with volume.
⚠️Market observation only, not trading adviceBitcoin is now just over 80,000, but miner Riot is massively selling off Bitcoin to shift to AI business. Is industrial capital retreating while retail investors are taking over? Bitcoin's V-shaped reversal in this wave shows a clear increase in call option buying in the options market. Traders are betting on a post-election rebound and have bet correctly.$BTC $SOXL
Let's review this order: you must stick to your own view and not be influenced by external factors, following your inner thoughts. Also, let's study in more detail:
✅ Current winter time:
US stock main board regular trading: Beijing time 22:30 - next day 05:00
Pre-market: 17:00-22:30, after-hours: 05:00-09:00
SOXL is divided into two parts, which is very important:
US native SOXL ETF: only 22:30–05:00 is real trading, liquidity is poor in pre-market and after-hours.
SOXLUSDT perpetual contract on OKX: can be traded 24 hours anytime, no suspension.
👉Correlation rules:
During the day (when US stocks are closed): SOXL contracts mainly follow BTC and Nasdaq futures, with weak correlation and small volatility, often driven by crypto;
Once 22:30 hits and US market officially opens: that's when the strong correlation happens! At this time, US chip stocks and Nasdaq spot move, SOXL's real price emerges, which in turn drives BTC and ETH, this time period has the strongest resonance.
In short:
During the day, BTC leads SOXL contracts; after 22:30 when US market opens, SOXL returns to its own chip stock trend, with strongest correlation and largest volatility.
⚠️Reminder: When US market is closed, SOXL contracts tend to disconnect from US stock spot and slippage increases.xSOXL (Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF token) is trading at $xSOXL 59.22 (-9.94% today) in a heavy downtrend.
* Past Ups & Downs: Price hit a high of $xSOXL 108.72 before falling down to its current 24h low of $59.22.
The asset is down -33.18% over 7 days and -64.02% over 30 days.
* Short-Term View: Selling pressure is high as price breaks lower supports.
A short-term relief bounce could target $xSOXL 70–$75, but momentum remains bearish. Bitcoin's volatility is increasing, but the supply of stablecoins is shrinking, and the Federal Reserve is still in a tightening cycle. The overall environment hasn't truly improved yet.The two sides of Circle's financial report: revenue exceeds expectations, but the quality is yet to be tested
Circle's Q3 revenue was $865 million, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with CRCL rising 2.77% pre-market, showing a seemingly good performance. However, a closer look reveals the report is not entirely positive.
Side A is the core business: USDC on-chain transaction volume surged 49% year-on-year, indicating that the payment and usage scenarios of stablecoins are still genuinely expanding, which is a commendable highlight.
Side B concerns profits: net profit only increased by 5%, clearly lagging behind revenue growth. More critically, reserve income was dragged down by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, falling 8% year-on-year to $658 million, putting pressure on the interest-earning model.
Why did revenue still exceed expectations? Mainly due to a one-time contribution of $182 million from the pre-sale of Arc blockchain network tokens. In other words, new business "filled the gap" to support growth, but sustainability is questionable.
The market in the short term only trades on "revenue exceeding expectations," but tends to overlook profit quality and one-time increments. After CRCL's surge, caution is needed as institutions reassess the financial report structure, bringing a risk of "good news fully priced in," so short-term blind chasing is not advisable.
$CRCL $xCRCL
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $BTC has fallen below eighty thousand dollars. Moving forward, I am more focused on whether it can recover rather than how much it has dropped before a rebound. Kraken's public quote is about 79,484 USD, with the UTC daily low around 79,458, indicating the lower boundary is still being tested. A halt in the decline cannot be judged solely by a single rebound.
Rego views the 78,950–79,400 range as a potential support zone but requires a strong reaction first before considering a short-term rebound. He also reminds that a recovery needs sustained genuine buying. This is his conditional judgment; the related capital flow claims have not been independently verified, so I do not take them directly as evidence of a rebound.
My market view is: I will first observe whether the support zone stops the low points from moving lower, then wait for the hourly close to recover above 80,000 and for the pullback to hold, before raising my assessment of a recovery. If it breaks below the lower edge of the support zone and the rebound fails to recover, the support assumption fails. I will not rely on averaging down to drag a short-term plan into a long-term one.
The core contradiction now is whether the rebound can turn into a recovery; the price is still on the lower end. I am temporarily not chasing the first surge, nor am I writing the order placement area as a certain opportunity. Would you first watch for the low point to stop moving down, or must you wait for the hourly close to recover the threshold? For discussion only, not investment advice.