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taishiro
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The jobs report is about to give the market another reason to rethink its rate expectations.
With December hike odds already above 70%, a strong payroll number could reinforce the hawkish outlook, push Treasury yields higher and put fresh pressure on Bitcoin, gold and growth stocks.
But the headline number won't tell the whole story. Wage growth and unemployment will be just as important in determining how the Fed interprets the labour market.
#USJobsReportInFocus
中线情报哥
#Nonfarm payrolls are imminent, can employment data strengthen the December rate hike expectations?
Brothers, let me first go over the mid-term intel.
The market has already priced in over 70% chance of a rate hike in December, just waiting for the nonfarm payrolls to deliver the final blow.
Key numbers to watch: new jobs added, unemployment rate, and hourly wages.
If new jobs exceed 100,000 and hourly wages rise more than 0.3% month-over-month, that's "hot data" — the probability of a rate hike will max out, US Treasury yields will surge again, $XAU, tech stocks like $SNDK will take the hit first, and $BTC will also decline!
But a reminder: don’t get carried away by a single month’s nonfarm data. The Fed is currently focused on "employment not collapsing + sticky inflation." As long as the data isn’t too cold, a 25 basis point hike in December is the baseline scenario; if the data is too strong, they might worry about tightening financial conditions too much and hurting risk assets.
Most likely scenarios: stronger nonfarm → higher rates for longer, causing volatility and shakeout in crypto and growth stocks; weaker nonfarm → expectations pull back, followed by a rebound.
Hold your positions for now and adjust after the data is released.
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