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#AAOIQ3 revenue increased by 128% year-over-year, setting a new high for six consecutive quarters
AAOI has crossed the commercialization threshold from "0 to 1," achieving truly sustainable profitable scale, with the validation window in 2027. Q3 revenue was $269.9 million, up 127.5% year-over-year, GAAP net profit was $6.3 million turning profitable, but there is still a significant gap to stable profitability.
Capacity is the biggest hard constraint: Phase II of the Texas factory was delayed by several months due to power connection and construction delays, and the 80G/1.6T monthly production capacity target by the end of 2026 was lowered from 650,000 units to over 500,000 units. Management clearly stated that "the state of demand exceeding capacity will continue until mid-2027." Profit quality remains fragile: non-GAAP gross margin was 28.7%, below its own guidance of 29%–30.5%, with a high proportion of low-margin 400G products directly dragging down results. Customer concentration risk cannot be ignored: the top ten customers account for 99% of revenue. Although the newly signed 1.6T long-term contract locks in $1 billion to $1.5 billion in revenue over three years, customers have not committed to capital investment, and actual purchase volumes have significant flexibility.
Only when capacity expansion is realized in 2027, the proportion of high-margin 1.6T increases, and the second-supplier major customer agreements are fulfilled simultaneously, will AAOI truly enter the "commercialization harvest period." The core variables are not in demand, but whether supply chain bottlenecks such as power and DSP can be cleared on schedule.In the current cycle, I pay more attention to the depth of the pullback rather than stubbornly sticking to the timeline progress.
The scariest thing about historical cycle models is not that they suddenly fail, but that they "slowly fail." By the time you wait for the model's "major bottom timing," the market may have already taken off.
Why do I focus more on the decline percentage?
Because the market structure has changed. Previously, retail investors dominated, bull markets were crazy, and bear markets crashed 80%. Now institutions have entered, ETFs are approved, and volatility has clearly decreased. In this round, Bitcoin only pulled back a maximum of 54%, and Ethereum about 70%. If you are still stubbornly waiting for an "80% drop to bottom buy," you will most likely miss out perfectly.
So my view is: don't use the old measuring stick to gauge the current market.
Time cycles can be used as a reference to help us see the big picture. But they absolutely cannot be used to precisely predict prices.
How should you operate in practice?
Focus on how much it has dropped. When the decline is deep enough and the price enters the hitting zone, start building positions in batches. Don't always think about precisely bottom-fishing.
Better to slowly buy on the left side than to go all-in at once. Save your bullets and enter in batches to survive longer in this changing market.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？
Oklo's actual window to achieve commercial electricity revenue is about 2–3 years, with the company's official target narrowed down to 2028. However, "2028" is an ambitious goal, not a guaranteed delivery date.
Regulatory side: The first Aurora-INL is following the DOE approval path, having completed only two of five steps; the remaining three steps are still pending; the NRC commercial operation license is also still in progress.
Fuel side: The first core depends on DOE-allocated recycled HALEU; commercial HALEU delivery, according to the letter of intent, will not start until 2029, posing a rigid constraint.
Demand side: The Meta agreement locks in up to 1.2 GW of development capacity in Ohio but clearly states that power generation capacity will form "no earlier than 2030," indicating customers are also preparing on a later timeline.
Before 2028, Oklo will not have commercial electricity revenue; isotope business may generate a small amount of revenue in the first half of 2027; the real power sales model activation will earliest occur after the first core is commissioned in 2028. The core variables lie not in demand but in whether the remaining regulatory steps and first core execution can be fulfilled on schedule.I've always been puzzled: I'm trading crypto, so why is the first thing I do every morning to check Nvidia's stock price?
Tonight is a typical example. Before the US market opened, chip stocks all rose—Nvidia up 5%, AMD 8%, SanDisk 12%. My social circle immediately started spreading "AI is back." But when I checked my holdings, $BTC was still at the same price, and $ETH was still stuck in place.
The chip stock rally is someone else's business; whether money flows into crypto is another matter. They buy computing power orders, we buy a story. There are several layers in between, and every time I get excited following along, in the end, I'm just adding drama for myself.
But I still check; I don't feel at ease if I don't.Before the U.S. stock market opens tonight, chip stocks collectively strengthened. Nvidia rose over 5%, AMD rose over 8%, and SanDisk rose over 12%. Seeing these three names together is quite interesting.
First, let's talk about the data itself. Nvidia is the largest player in this sector, up 5%; AMD is second, up 8%; SanDisk, which focuses on storage, is up 12%. The gains and sizes basically move inversely, with money flowing to areas with greater elasticity rather than blindly buying the leader. This kind of structure usually appears in the early stages of sentiment recovery, not after a trend is established.
Next, the mechanism. Liquidity is thin during pre-market hours, so the same buy orders can push prices to fluctuate more, naturally amplifying pre-market gains. This reflects expectations, not actual transactions. The real signal comes after the market opens, within the first hour, to see if the gains can hold.
Regarding crypto, the logic is straightforward. Chips are the physical foundation of the AI narrative; chip stocks strengthening means the market is willing to keep paying for computing power, raising risk appetite accordingly. At this point, $BTC and $ETH often follow for a while, and high beta assets like $SOL show even more pronounced elasticity. But the correlation is not constant; it only noticeably rises on days when the overall direction is clear.
The judgment is: the direction is somewhat bullish, but today's numbers are not enough to confirm it. It's not surprising if SanDisk's 12% pre-market gain falls back to 5% after the open.
One question remains: is this wave driven by earnings expectations, or is it simply a rebound from overselling? The sustainability of the two is on different scales. The Nasdaq always rebounds after a sharp drop. Can the US stock market make a comeback tonight after the non-farm payrolls release?
Last night, the US stock market fell heavily. The Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, and the Dow Jones dropped 3.44%, all marking the largest single-day declines since April 2025.
More importantly, the Nasdaq has fallen 11.9% from its historic high on October 6, officially entering a technical correction. So, can it rebound tonight? Beichen’s conclusion first: the probability of a rebound is not low, for three reasons:
First, the drop was too sharp. A single-day drop of 5.5% is not uncommon in Nasdaq’s history; most of the time, there is a technical rebound in the following days because short-term funds need to close positions and shorts want to take profits. This kind of rebound is called an oversold technical bounce, not a reversal.
Second, there is a catalyst tonight. The US October non-farm payrolls will be released at 21:30. If the data is weak, rate cut expectations will return, giving tech stocks a reason to rebound; if the data is strong, the rebound will be weak.
Third, the level has been reached. The S&P 500 has fallen to 7353, a level with technical buying support. If it holds, there will be a rebound; if not, a new round of decline will follow.
But Beichen wants to remind you: a rebound and a reversal are two different things. The root cause of this drop is that AI valuations are too high and capital expenditures are being questioned; this is not something a single non-farm payroll report can fix. Even if there is a rebound tonight, it only provides an opportunity to reduce positions.
For the crypto market, the US stock rebound will bring some recovery to Bitcoin but the magnitude will be small. $BTC is now at 76000, with 75000 as the bottom line; if it breaks, it will follow the US stock market down.
As for trading, don’t chase the rally; wait to see the direction after the US market opens.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ $SOL No matter how strong the fundamentals are, it is difficult to have an independent rally in the current environment.
Unlike UNI, which benefits from sustained buying driven by Binance's secondary market buybacks, and PEPE, which also has OTC channels to support it; $SOL lacks this kind of passive capital backing, so its strength or weakness is highly tied to overall market sentiment.
On-chain ecosystem data is indeed solid and forms the support for long-term value, but it is not enough to counter the pressure from continuous capital outflows. Without incremental funds specifically entering the market, it is hard to go against the trend and achieve an independent rise, so short-term pressure is expected.
Tonight's non-farm payroll data is an important turning point. After significant deleveraging in the US stock market, this data will reshape market expectations for the December rate hike and directly determine the short-term direction of crypto risk assets. #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ $AKE US market pulled up more than 70 points, then quickly broke below the intraday new low, a move that hit both bulls and bears.The US non-farm payroll data is about to be released. The crypto market currently behaves more like a macro asset sensitive to interest rates rather than an independent asset. Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently at 76403, Ethereum ($ETH) at 2263; both have previously surged and then pulled back, with upward momentum clearly weakening before the data release. The logic chain is very clear: stronger employment data will reinforce market expectations for a December rate hike, pushing up the US dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing risk assets. In this environment, $BTC may retest the previous low near 75500, while $ETH will test support at 2225. If the employment data is weaker, cooling rate hike expectations, the market will move in the opposite direction, with Bitcoin likely approaching 78000 and Ethereum targeting 2320. There is an asymmetrical market characteristic here: prices have already fallen from the highs, indicating the market has priced in a hawkish outcome in advance. The pullback space caused by strong data may be limited, as many weak hands have already exited; conversely, if the data disappoints, cautious funds entering the market could easily trigger a stronger rebound. From a medium-term perspective, macro data drives short-term market moves, rather than the market driving macro expectations. Rather than heavily betting on direction before the data release, it is better to adjust positions after the data is out and the market trend stabilizes. The focus of trading needs to be on the US dollar, front-end yields, and core employment data. The volatility of $BTC and $ETH is more influenced by interest rate shocks than by the employment numbers themselves. The current question is whether this non-farm report can still move a market that has already adjusted in advance Two Lookonchain posts flag that Pump.fun just deposited 76,111 $SOL (about $6.85M) in fee revenue to Kraken. Trackers count these deposits as sales: one puts the cumulative total at 5.627M SOL (~$893M), the other at 5.554M SOL (~$882M), both at an average price near $158.8. Key points: Implied price: $6.85M over 76,111 SOL works out to roughly $90 per SOL, about 43% below the ~$158.7 average sale price. Steady cadence: this is another in a series of transfers, so the market may have largely pricSanDisk's rebound is an opportunity; Haitang has already taken a short position out of respect! 😎🔥
Family, don't think the bottom has been reached just because the price has bounced a little! With the current trend, the biggest fear is rushing in to catch the bottom after just a few rebounds, only to get trapped again.
Haitang's approach has always been clear: the storage sector hasn't shown obvious improvement yet, and this drop in SanDisk is not just a simple technical correction.
Looking at the data first, a single-day plunge of 22.26%, trading volume exceeding 30.76 million shares, far above the recent average. In just a few trading days, the stock price has pulled back significantly, and market sentiment has started to change.
Although SanDisk's Q1 revenue reached $11.03 billion, a year-over-year increase of 378%, which is indeed impressive, the market is now looking beyond just revenue growth. Consumer business revenue declined 29% quarter-over-quarter, and with Kioxia's cautious outlook on next quarter's profit growth, funds are starting to worry whether the pace of storage price increases can be maintained.
Looking again at November 5, trading volume exceeded 30 million shares, about three times the recent average. The volume-driven decline indicates a clear increase in the divergence between bulls and bears, meaning some profit-taking funds are retreating.
More importantly, the Nasdaq dropped 5.5% in one day, the semiconductor index fell nearly 12%, and the entire tech sector is under pressure. The market is beginning to reassess the investment returns of AI data centers; as risk appetite declines, stocks like SanDisk, which had significant prior gains, naturally become vulnerable.
Therefore, Haitang does not believe that a slight rebound now can change the overall weakness Conclusion first: $SOXL (3x Semiconductor ETF) dropped -38.7% in a single day yesterday, while the underlying stock $SOXX only fell 12.1%. The single-day 3x leverage matches, but over three days it doesn't: SOXX dropped -12.8% in three days, while $SOXL went from 68.17 to 40.87, a -40.0% drop, which is even worse than 3x — this is volatility decay, which eats into principal.
Perpetual contracts are even harsher. On OKX, $SOXL perpetual contracts traded 47.96 million contracts in 24 hours on November 5, with a notional value of $2.36 billion; the intraday low was 38.82, 4.4% lower than the underlying's low of 40.59 — perpetuals are worse than the underlying because they never sleep in 24 hours. Before the crash, longs were still paying funding fees, with the highest funding rate at +0.0935% per 8 hours (about 0.28% per day). The perpetual leverage cap is 20x, while the underlying itself is 3x.
This morning before the market opened, the underlying rose 19.3% (40.87 to 48.76), and the perpetual was at 48.7. The 3x ETF resets daily, so your entry price determines whether you are paying down debt or making a profit. South Korean retail investors bought $4.3 billion worth of US stocks, with media specifically naming $SOXL, but it has already dropped from its June high of 302 to 40.87, a -86.5% decline.
My approach: only trade small positions, only when the direction is clear, and don't exceed leverage limits. Do you think today's rebound is to help trapped holders get out, or is it a trap for those chasing longs?On Nov. 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25%, the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.4%, wiping roughly $2.5T from its market value. Three pressures converged: fears of tougher data-center scrutiny after the US midterms, weaker chip-company outlooks, and doubts that massive AI spending will deliver sufficient returns. But tighter rules or delayed permits do not automatically mean AI demand is disappearing. The real test: will hyperscalers keep spending, and can tha$BTC $ETH Is the sharp drop in US tech stocks really because the Democratic Party is tightening AI regulations? Wanwan believes this might just be an excuse for the market decline!
First, Texas not being able to build data centers doesn't mean other US states can't; AI infrastructure expansion hasn't completely stopped because of this.
Second, Democratic lawmakers proposing stronger AI regulations is currently just a policy suggestion and doesn't mean it will be implemented immediately.
What really deserves attention is why institutional funds have also seen massive sell-offs this time?
Tech giants like MU, Micron, and Nvidia have a high proportion of institutional holdings, so the entire drop can't be explained by retail panic alone.
Wanwan thinks we also need to consider the political struggles after the midterm elections. The stock market relates to the wealth of the American people and also influences public opinion for the next presidential election.
If the market continues to fall, Trump could very well take the opportunity to criticize the Democratic Party and then boost market confidence through subsequent policies.
Of course, there is currently no evidence proving Trump is colluding with institutions to dump stocks; this is just a political struggle angle worth observing.
So brothers, don't be misled by surface-level news! What really matters is when institutional funds will stop flowing out and when tech stocks will stabilize again. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 No crash eight times, one fatal
August 8, 2011 (S&P downgraded US sovereign rating to AA+), QQQ fell 6.02%, rebounded 4.82% the next day, rose 0.53% the third day, and rose 4.96% the fourth day.
March 9, 2020 (OPEC+ negotiation breakdown, Saudi price war, oil price dropped about 25% in one day), QQQ fell 6.95%, rebounded 5.45% the next day, rose 0.85% the third day, and turned down 8.39% the fourth day.
March 12, 2020 (WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic), QQQ fell 9.17%, rebounded 8.47% the next day, fell 4.52% the third day, and rose 2.72% the fourth day.
March 16, 2020 (Federal Reserve emergency cut to zero interest rate and restarted QE), QQQ fell 11.98%, rebounded 7.58% the next day, rose 4.31% the third day, and rose 4.94% the fourth day.
April 4, 2025 (reciprocal tariffs implemented, China announced countermeasures), QQQ fell 6.21%, nearly flat 0.24% the next day, fell 1.56% the third day, and rose 10.25% the fourth day.
Out of 9 times, QQQ rose the next day 8 times, the third day 6 times, and the fourth day 6 times. Brothers, I didn't expect AKE to bring some action today 😂
A 93% increase in 24 hours, a trading volume of 353 million U, bringing some long-lost excitement to the dull crypto circle.
But interestingly, it has dropped 73% in the past 7 days and 81% in the past 30 days. So I tend to see today's surge as a strong rebound after overselling, rather than the start of a new upward trend.
Here's my own judgment: I am optimistic about the market heat it brings, but I won't chase the price at this level.
The short-term increase is too large, profit-taking could happen anytime, and previous trapped chips need to be digested. Especially after surging near 0.005, if it can't effectively break through with volume, a pullback or even a quick retreat would be normal.
My strategy is clear: don't chase this big bullish candle, wait for a pullback to see if it holds. If it can stabilize at key levels, then consider if there's a second chance. If it breaks support with volume, then just wait and see.
I'd rather earn less than buy the dip at the peak of excitement for others. 😂
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ $AKE $XLU
Can the electricity consumption narrative of data centers offset the interest rate sensitivity of utilities?
Tonight's employment data may reprice long-term interest rates. New electricity demand requires construction and financing; capital expenditures, regulatory returns, and cost recovery cannot be skipped. Increased demand may initially translate into financial pressure.
If projects are approved for cost recovery and financing structures are sound, long-term returns become clearer; if capital expenditures expand faster than confirmed returns, the industry narrative may also suppress short-term cash flow.$SNDK Do not chase the highs, wait to fill the gap before taking action｜Direction: rebound, but not a reversal Yesterday's candle was a typical panic sell-off: volume tripled, closed at the lowest point, RSI 24; today's pre-market 10% rebound is a short-covering bounce. But 806 is just a parabolic retracement to the 71% level, the next real support is at 647 (78.6% retracement). If it gaps up tonight then fills the gap and falls back below 860, it's a standard one-day rebound, don't mistake it for a bottom. Why did $SNDK fall so hard (three reasons combined) 1. Cycle peak expectation, not a performance issue Q3 revenue 11.031 billion (YoY +378%), gross margin 85.1%, EPS 49.51 all exceeded expectations, guidance also exceeded expectations. But the market is buying the "second derivative of growth" — NAND average price QoQ: Q2 +70% → Q3 +20% → Q4 guidance ≈ 0%. The price hike engine has stalled. 2. Kioxia's guidance is the key trigger On 10-30 Kioxia announced revenue of 2.48 trillion yen, next quarter guidance about 2.5 trillion — almost no QoQ growth. SanDisk and Kioxia are joint partners producing NAND, the market directly took this guidance as a signal of the NAND cycle peak. 3. Sector-wide sell-off on 11-05 Tre$ETH The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 12.25%, with all 30 component stocks declining. SanDisk dropped over 22%, Micron and Western Digital fell more than 17%, Nvidia declined 9.26%, and Tesla dropped nearly 11%.
This is not an ordinary post-election fluctuation; it is a concentrated liquidation triggered by political signals targeting the AI capital expenditure narrative.
🩸 Why did BTC crash along with it? Because this time its role is as an "AI proxy."
BTC fell sharply from above 81,000 to around 75,600, dropping over 5% in 24 hours, with more than 210,000 liquidations across the network, 90.9% of which were long positions.
But here is a key detail: the stock side’s decline was even more severe than BTC itself. This indicates that the selling pressure mainly came from leveraged liquidations on the stock side, not structural sell-offs by on-chain holders. There were no signs of major whales dumping, surging net inflows to exchanges, or massive stablecoin redemptions—signals that would indicate fundamental deterioration in crypto itself.
What really happened is that hedge funds were forced to liquidate long AI positions and needed the fastest liquid asset to cover margin calls. The 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 is in the 0.6-0.69 range, historically high. When AI stocks crashed, BTC was liquidated as a high-beta AI proxy. It’s not that crypto had bad news; BTC was treated as an ATM amid liquidity shocks.
$BTC $SOL
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $TAO
I don't really consider the term "post-quantum wallet" as a reason to buy tomorrow. The wallet launched this time by Bittensor supports post-quantum signatures and automatic key rotation, which indeed addresses long-term security, but there is still a long way to go from product feature launch to user migration and network adoption.
TAO spot is about $225.3, 24-hour low at $212.02; perpetual positions are about $15.14 million, funding rate about 0.0061%, slightly higher than common benchmarks. It dropped about 4% in one day, but the position leverage is not heavy, at least it doesn't look like derivatives funds are crowded on one side for now.
I prefer to record this as a technical advancement rather than write it as token demand. Whether the wallet can truly be used by the ecosystem depends later on integration and migration data; the announcement itself ends here for now.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ After the recent sharp decline in the US stock market, how is the market betting on the December rate hike tonight? The prior drop in US stocks has already priced in high interest rate pressure and a valuation correction in the AI sector. The focus of capital competition is on tonight's non-farm payrolls, especially the two key indicators of new employment and wage growth. Currently, the interest rate market maintains a relatively high probability of a December rate hike, but there is significant divergence. Traders are on one hand worried that employment resilience supports inflation, while on the other hand wary that continued stock market weakness will force the Federal Reserve to be cautious.
If non-farm payrolls and hourly wages significantly exceed expectations, it indicates the labor market remains hot, inflation decline is hindered, and the probability of a December rate hike will quickly rise. US Treasury yields will increase, and growth stocks, crypto, and gold and silver will continue to face pressure. If the data significantly weakens, combined with a rise in unemployment, rate hike expectations will cool rapidly, and the market will trade on a "pause in tightening," giving tech stocks and gold a recovery window.
If the data falls within the expected range, the market is likely to fluctuate repeatedly, and the Federal Reserve will continue to remain on the sidelines without giving clear signals. Attention should also be paid to revisions of previous data; a downward revision indicates actual employment is weaker, while an upward revision will amplify hawkish interpretations.
The recent sharp drop in US stocks has already released some pessimism, but if non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, selling pressure will continue; only sustained cooling in employment can alleviate valuation pressure caused by high interest rates. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
Tonight, the non-farm payrolls are likely to slightly exceed market expectations, with the highest probability that the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. Overall, this indicates a moderate recovery in employment but not yet overheating.
ADP has grown for two consecutive months, and initial jobless claims are near historic lows, indicating that U.S. companies have not significantly expanded layoffs. However, new hiring remains slow, so I believe a moderate non-farm payrolls figure slightly above expectations is more reasonable than a strong increase of over 200,000. ADP should not be directly used as a forecast for the official non-farm payrolls.
For investors preparing to watch stocks like $SOXL, $AAOI, and $IREN tonight, I think the ideal outcome is an increase of 50,000–80,000 in non-farm payrolls, unemployment holding at 4.2%, and wage growth not exceeding expectations. This neither implies a significant downturn in the job market nor further strengthens expectations for Fed rate hikes.
But don't overlook next Tuesday (November 10) when the U.S. October CPI is released: if employment is moderate tonight and inflation is also below expectations next week, it is more likely to create macro conditions for a sustained rebound in tech growth stocks.In a recovering market, the ones that rise first are not necessarily the ones that can hold the money
$BTC has returned above $81,000, with mainstream coins moving first.
Outsiders might think the one that rises along is the most worth buying.
What does this number mean: protocol revenue buyback and burn, which means the project uses the money it earns to buy back its own tokens from the market.
The bought-back tokens are directly invalidated, reducing the circulating supply.
The money doesn't go into anyone's pocket; it disappears into thin air.
Who places orders here: only tokens with real income have the money to do this.
Tokens pushed up solely by sentiment rise quickly but have nothing to support them when cooled down.
Looking backward, whether buybacks can be sustained depends on income, not on price increase.
Rising early does not equal holding on.
Buyback money comes from income, and income does not increase because of a single bullish candle.
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $BTC When a hardware wallet has issues, it's often not because the private key was stolen, but because the App fails first.
Keystone's Nexus App recently experienced a network attack on some of its services, causing some users to be unable to use it normally. The team stated that server security has been strengthened and no user assets or personal information have been found to be affected so far. The attack targeted the server side, not the private key itself.
What’s more notable is the dual-platform timing. Version 1.3.7 is already available on Google Play, while the iOS version is still waiting for App Store review. Android can be patched immediately, but Apple users have to wait in line, creating a window of risk.
The official fallback is: before the iOS version goes live, users can switch to third-party wallets supported by Keystone for signing. The device remains usable; only the cloud-based supporting service is interrupted.
The original purpose of buying a hardware wallet is to take trust back from exchanges into your own hands. The private keys for $BTC and $ETH are indeed stored offline on the device, but broadcasting, querying, firmware, and supporting Apps are all still connected to the internet. The keys are locked in a safe, but the access control system is on someone else’s server.
The official also specifically reminds users to confirm the developer as Yanssie HK Limited before installation. Such a prompt is rare and indicates that counterfeit packages do exist.
The real question is not whether coins were lost this time, but: when the supporting App is completely unusable, can you still sign a transaction?Regarding the upcoming 38u operation
Currently, BTC support is between 76,000-74,000. There's no need to segment levels like 75,500 or 75,000 during this sideways phase as most people do.
The possibility of a spike down to break 72,000 cannot be ruled out. For the time being, the 74,000 level is a strong 2-day moving average support and also the short-term holder cost line support. If this range is broken, it will face a chain reaction of stop-losses from short-term holders leading to a further decline.
Regarding non-farm payrolls
With the realization of the rate hike expectations, BTC usually rebounds about 30%, which is around 78,000. If there is a downward spike and a V-shaped recovery, consider taking profits in batches between 77,000 and 78,000.
Currently, based on funding rates, the annualized funding rate has dropped from about 10% this morning to around 3%, indicating a significant withdrawal of long positions.
For small capital positions, consider building positions in batches to avoid missing out and to prevent liquidation from high leverage all at once.
This 38u will open a 10u position at 76,000 with 20x leverage,
Add the first 10u at an accelerated spike near 74,000, and in an extreme spike to 72,000, add the remaining 18u.Key variables tonight: Three scenarios for Nonfarm Payrolls
ADP has already signaled a slightly stronger trend: October ADP new jobs at 86,000, higher than the expected 69,000; ISM Services Employment Index rose to 51.4, expanding for the second consecutive month; ISM Services Price Index remains high at 73.0, inflationary pressure has not truly eased. Market expectations for a December rate hike have reached about 79%.
Scenario Conditions Potential impact on BTC
🟢 Mildly weak/close to expectations (most favorable) New jobs near 65,000, cooling wages Soft landing narrative strengthened, Fed no need for excessive tightening, most favorable for risk assets, bullish
🟡 Significantly above expectations (bearish but limited impact) Strong employment + strong wages Reinforces rate hike pricing, short-term pressure, but this logic is familiar to the market, impact may be relatively limited, watch for rebound after initial sell-off
🔴 Significantly below expectations + rising unemployment Large employment shortfall Beware market shifting from "rate worries" to "growth worries," US stocks may continue to fall, BTC also under pressure
Key reminder: Do not chase the first candle before and after data release, wait for 15-minute/1-hour candle close confirmation, use light positions, low leverage, and preset stop losses. Nonfarm Payrolls is the only catalyst tonight capable of breaking the stalemate of "weak recovery after a sharp drop." $BTC $ETH $SNDK #比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 Liquidations tell you who was crowded 📊 Over $1B wiped out in this crash, mostly longs — and $BTC dominance climbed to 57.45% as money hid in BTC, not alts. When dominance rises into a selloff, alts bleed first. Support: $75,000. Resistance: $77,770. Are you rotating into BTC or hunting alts at the lows? 👇 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto#AAOIQ3 revenue increased by 128% year-over-year, hitting a new high for six consecutive quarters. The impact of this earnings report on the crypto market is bearish rather than bullish, due to the macro window in which the report was released:
The earnings report itself: revenue exceeded expectations, but forward guidance was entirely below expectations. AAOI's Q3 revenue was $269.9 million, slightly above the consensus of $268.1 million, but the Q4 revenue guidance midpoint of $402.5 million was significantly below analysts' expectations of $427.3 million; the company also warned that U.S. capacity expansion would be delayed due to power supply and other issues. The stock price fell about 10% in after-hours trading. This means that even though current demand for AI optical modules remains strong, the market is more focused on the signal of a marginal slowdown in future growth.
Simultaneous macro shock: AI regulatory panic triggered a synchronized crash in tech stocks and the crypto market. From November 5 to 6, after the U.S. midterm elections resulted in the Democrats controlling both houses of Congress, the market quickly priced in the risk of tighter AI data center regulation. The Nasdaq plunged more than 5% intraday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12% in a single day, Nvidia dropped 9%, and Micron fell over 17%. Panic sentiment rapidly transmitted across asset classes to the crypto market, with Bitcoin falling below $76,000, Ethereum dropping to around $2,200, and over $1 billion in leveraged positions across the network being liquidated. The crypto market's decline that day was directly characterized by market participants as "because Bitcoin is too much like AI stocks"—the trigger was not internal to crypto but rather the collapse of regulatory expectations for AI tech stocks.ETH weakened today following the broader market, mainly due to last night's sharp decline in U.S. tech stocks triggering risk-off sentiment, combined with a concentrated liquidation of long leverage positions, leading to a collective sell-off in the crypto market. ETH showed greater volatility, with a deeper drop than BTC.
Macro origin: Panic selling in U.S. tech stocks
Last night, the Nasdaq plunged 5.52%. The market is worried about tighter AI regulations and reduced capital expenditure on computing power, causing funds to withdraw from high-risk assets. The correlation between crypto and tech assets increased, directly triggering the crash.
Derivative chain liquidations amplify the downtrend
A large amount of long leverage had accumulated previously. Once the price broke key levels, it triggered a chain of forced liquidations. The network's long positions were liquidated en masse, intensifying selling pressure and accelerating the decline.
ETH's inherent attribute: higher volatility
ETH is a riskier asset and typically underperforms BTC during systemic risk-off events, experiencing larger pullbacks. This time, there was no negative news specific to Ethereum; the correction is systemic.
Capital aspect: ETF outflows, institutional risk aversion
Spot ETF funds flowed out, and institutional investors reduced their crypto exposure in the short term, resulting in a lack of buying support to sustain prices. SNDK unrealized profit is about $6.36 million, INTC about $4.03 million, SOXL about $2.33 million, MU about $2.25 million, with total unrealized profit exceeding $30 million — this is the account of a certain whale shorting US tech stocks in AI/semiconductor sectors.
Lookonchain monitoring: This address heavily shorts US stocks, especially those related to AI, semiconductors, and memory chips. Most positions are currently in profit, with total unrealized gains exceeding $30 million. At the time of writing, BTC≈75777, ETH≈2233.
I actually think: all the positions are profitable, more like a comprehensive short bet on the "cooling down of the AI narrative" rather than betting on a single chip stock.
Do you think this short position will continue to increase the total unrealized profit, or will it peak and retrace around $30 million? If you want to see the follow-up, please follow.
$MU $INTC $SOXL Micron at $710, are you bottom-fishing or catching the falling knife?
It dropped from 1255 to 656, down more than 40%. Taiwan factory shutdown, DRAM market share lost, semiconductor sector collectively collapsed—but just now, the perpetual contract bounced hard from 650 back to 710. Is this wave a deeply oversold rebound escape opportunity, or the last pump by manipulative traders before the AI memory narrative collapses?
First, look at the surface: bad news hit hard, but the price stopped falling.
On November 4-5, Micron plunged 17%, getting bloodied along with the Nasdaq. The $3-4.5 billion HBM factory in Taoyuan, Taiwan, halted construction due to labor disputes, DRAM share dropped from 26% to 21%, with Samsung and SK Hynix chasing behind.
But look at the market—after closing at 656 with a big bearish candle, it jumped pre-market straight to 710.
First point: a 40% drop is not a risk, it’s finally your chance.
From the all-time high of 1255 on June 25, it fell to 656 with almost no decent rebound in between. Halved in half a year, retail investors cut losses, institutions complained.
But have you calculated the valuation?
FY2026 revenue 133 billion, net profit 85 billion, gross margin 87%. After the drop, PE (TTM) is only 8-11x, even lower forward.
A company earning 85 billion annually, valued at 8x PE. Tell me this is a bubble?
Analysts’ target prices are generally above $1500, strong buy ratings unchanged. What fell was the stock price, not the business.
Second point: HBM sold out until 2027, yet you worry about one Taiwan factory?
That Taiwan factory won’t start production until 2028; the labor dispute stopped future capacity, current operations are normal. The market took a variable three years out and smashed a current quarter earning hundreds of billions.
This is emotional selling, not fundamental selling.
What’s the real fundamental? HBM capacity is basically sold out, strategic customer agreements locked until 2030, supply chain tightness expected to continue through 2027-2028. AI data center memory demand is not slowing, it’s fundamentally insufficient.
Worried about AI spending slowdown? Micron’s Q1 FY2027 guidance is revenue 61.5 billion ±1.5 billion, EPS 38.15 ±1. The company’s own guidance is much firmer than the market’s scary stories.
Third point: technically between 650-710, bulls and bears are arm wrestling.
Daily chart dropped over 40% from ATH, entered a clear downtrend channel, now it’s an oversold rebound after the second leg of the bear run.
Support: 650-670 recent lows + psychological level, 600 stronger
Resistance: 750-780 rebound highs + dense volume area, then 800-850 higher
RSI rebounded from oversold but no confirmed bottom reversal. Volume increase shows real selling pressure but also shows buyers stepping in.
The key is one thing: can it hold above 750? Hold above, rebound turns into reversal; fail, 650 will be tested again.
Bull vs bear, you decide:
Bulls:
Earning 85 billion annually, PE only 8-11x, valuation at historical lows
HBM capacity sold out, customer agreements locked to 2030
Analysts strong buy, target price far above current
650-670 support zone tested multiple times, oversold rebound started
AI memory long-term shortage logic intact
Bears:
Taiwan factory shutdown, capacity expansion uncertain
DRAM share dropped from 26% to 21%, real competitive pressure
Fed not cutting rates, possibly hiking, high-valuation tech stocks pressured
Mid-term downtrend channel intact, technicals still bearish
Beta as high as 2.4-3, it shakes three times when the market shakes once
Key levels
Resistance above: 750-780 → 800-850 → 1000
Support below: 680-700 → 650 → 600
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for pullback to 680-700 to stabilize, then enter lightly, stop loss below 650, target 750-780 to take half profits. If volume breaks below 650, don’t bottom-fish, watch or lightly short to test 600. Perpetual leverage no more than 5-10x, monitor funding rate and liquidation risk yourself.
Swing traders:
Build long positions gradually in 650-700 range, stop loss at 600 or channel lower edge. First target 800-900, second target 1000+. Add positions after holding 800 and breaking above downtrend channel upper edge.
Mid to long-term:
AI/HBM logic intact, 40% drop brings value. Dollar-cost average or accumulate in batches, target to revisit previous highs. Watch December earnings, Taiwan labor progress, memory spot prices, Fed decisions. Fundamentals have your back, but don’t expect 1255 tomorrow.
Micron now is like semiconductors at the end of 2022—
99% think “AI spending will collapse, memory cycle peaked,” but once HBM shortage hits, the stock price flipped several times from the bottom.
$BTC $ETH $MU After the Democratic Party secured key seats, the political landscape shifted, and the market immediately began to worry about tighter regulation. The most sensitive areas are AI data center construction, computing power expansion, and large tech companies, all of which may face stricter scrutiny. In the past US stock bull market, AI was the strongest growth theme. Once this expectation is questioned, selling starts. The transmission chain is clear: the Nasdaq dropped nearly 6% overnight, setting a record for the largest single-day point drop; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 12%; the fear index VIX broke above 25, with a single-day increase exceeding 45%. The movement of funds was also very direct—not switching from one stock to another, but withdrawing from risk assets and shifting to short-term US Treasuries for safety. The size of US money market funds hit a historic high of $8.016 trillion. The money hasn't disappeared; it just doesn't want to take risks anymore. This sentiment quickly crossed the Pacific after the market opened this morning. The South Korean stock market fell over 8%, directly triggering a circuit breaker; the KOSPI fell below 5000 points; Samsung Electronics dropped 9.98%, SK Hynix fell 11.7%; the Nikkei also approached a technical bear market. The crypto market followed down to 75,200, which is not surprising. But honestly, the election is just the fuse. Many companies rely on continuous borrowing to expand production. In a high-interest-rate environment, growth fueled by borrowed money is the first to be sold off, which is the fundamental reason for this collective retreat in AI trading. What followed was a stampede. Selling spread from chip stocks to the entire tech sector, and funds massively shifted to short-term US Treasuries, indicating this is not a normal portfolio adjustment but a withdrawal of risk appetite. This is essentially a man-made burst of the AI bubble.#Anthropic November IPO plan may face uncertainties
The leader has something to say
I looked at this news together with yesterday's 5.5% drop in the Nasdaq, and the picture became clear: Reuters reported that some potential IPO investors in Anthropic feel the $1.5 trillion valuation is still too high and want a more attractive pricing; previously, the market expected a roadshow and listing in November, but now it may be delayed, with fundraising possibly shrinking from the original scale to about 80 billion, and valuation cut from 2 trillion to 1.5 trillion. The company is still losing money and carries huge commitments for computing power purchases.
My interpretation is: this is not just about Anthropic, the AI IPO window is closing. Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%, and IREN and AAOI just released earnings reports; the market's tolerance for "burning cash to chase growth" is rapidly declining. Even the brightest star in AI has to renegotiate valuation, indicating that risk appetite in both primary and secondary markets is tightening simultaneously. For the crypto space, this is an emotional warning: if the AI narrative is disproven, high-beta assets will be repriced together.
BTC current price is about 75200, I continue to stay out of positions and wait for the 21:30 Nonfarm Payrolls. My approach: IPO delay won't directly crash BTC in the short term but will amplify panic; watch if 75000 holds, if broken look down to 73000. Before tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls release, all positions should be reduced to a level that allows you to sleep.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $XLY
How do employment data translate to discretionary consumption?
Tonight's report will update on jobs, wages, and unemployment. Household purchasing power comes from employment stability and real income, but high interest rates also suppress financing or large purchases like cars and travel. Nominal wage growth alone cannot represent consumption health.
If employment is stable, wages outpace living costs, and consumer credit pressure eases, demand assessment improves; if delinquency rates and reliance on promotions increase, I would lower expectations for profit margins.$DOGE Folks, listen to my advice, DOGE is eerily quiet. 📉 The order book is a dog-eat-dog battle, volume suddenly shrinks to a thin line, the dog whales have been holding their sickles high for a long time, just waiting for retail investors to cut losses. Damn it! I've been watching the 0.0724 level for three days, the previous low support is repeatedly tested, a typical end of a shakeout. Don't chase the highs, buy in batches on the pullback between 0.0720-0.0724, keep your position under 20%, stop loss at 0.0708. This market is really something, no news outside, purely forced by capital, let's quietly ambush following the dog whales' footprints. 🧘♂️
👇👇👇#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
Don't bombard my account tonight anymore!
The US October nonfarm payroll report, to be released at 21:30 Beijing time, is at an extremely perilous market juncture: the Nasdaq index just suffered a 6.4% crash on Thursday in the "AI trading meltdown," and quantitative CTA funds have started net selling. At this moment, the US stock market is trapped in the classic "good news is bad news" paradox—a strong nonfarm report not only fails to act as a market savior but instead triggers a "December rate hike" interest rate bomb on the wound of the "AI valuation faith collapse."
Nearly 100% expectation of a December rate hike, a comprehensive sell-off in US tech stocks, plus a major political shift after the midterm elections.
The worst data tonight
Hawkish hit (additions > 85,000, or unemployment rate drops to 4.1% / hourly wage MoM ≥ 0.4%): The most dangerous scenario. US Treasury yields and the USD/JPY index violently surge (USD/JPY may break above 159), the probability of a December rate hike approaches 90%+, "AI logic collapse + rising rates" form a Davis double whammy, and the Nasdaq and high Beta risk assets (including crypto) face a new round of liquidity tightening sell-off 🐻3 trillion dollars lost in one day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit its largest single-day drop since March 2020, the Korean stock market directly triggered a circuit breaker, and last night the worst hit was not the crypto circle, but the world's toughest AI trade
There's a detail I don't know if everyone noticed: the Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, BTC dropped 5.28%, almost the same. In the past, when crypto fell, it was several times worse than the US stock market, but this time they are equal. What does this mean? It means the crypto bubble has already been squeezed out in advance; the biggest bubble is not here, but on the AI side
Some are still asking if the money will go to healthcare or arms, don't overthink it. This time it's a full withdrawal, running out of the crowded AI trades to hide in cash. It's not switching tracks; there is no track to switch to
On the crypto side, BTC is at 76047, last night’s 75200 was not broken again, considered stable, but ETFs have had a net outflow of about 1.1 billion in the past 7 days. This hidden worry remains. We can only say it’s not falling, not that it’s getting stronger
So how to look at the future? Don’t watch anything else, just watch when semiconductors stop falling. If they don’t stop falling, no one can be stable. When they stabilize, BTC at this level can be considered truly supported
Do you think this is the peak of AI, or a golden pit?
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC $ETH $SNDK # Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls, I actually think it's not so easy to make money on either side.
21:30, US Nonfarm Payroll data release.
My view is: the real danger tonight is not whether the data is good or bad, but that the market has already priced in too many expectations.
If employment data is stronger than expected, the market may worry again about the Fed slowing rate cuts, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening, and tech stocks and semiconductors possibly continuing to be under pressure.
If employment data is significantly weak, while rate cut expectations may heat up, we also need to be cautious of another scenario: the market starting to price in a US economic recession.
This is the most interesting part tonight.
**Good news may not lead to a rise, and bad news may not lead to a fall.**
Especially after yesterday's tech stocks collectively plunged, I think the most important thing to watch tonight is not the first 5-minute candlestick, but whether the Nasdaq, dollar index, and US Treasury yields can form a consistent direction after the data release.
Personally, I tend to wait and see first, not rush to bet on a direction.
After all, the market's favorite thing to do is to make everyone who thinks they are smart stand on the wrong side at the same time.
What do you think tonight?
Will Nonfarm Payrolls exceed expectations or fall short?
Do you think US stocks will rebound tonight or continue to plunge? #IREN accelerates transformation to AI cloud, business revenue grows 182% quarter-on-quarter
"IREN completely cuts off mining bets on AI cloud"
Former mining giant IREN dropped a bombshell in its Q3 financial report. AI cloud business revenue surged 182% quarter-on-quarter to $200 million, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue, with a gross margin peaking at 86%.
Mining business revenue plummeted 58% to only $28 million, with computing power falling below 9 EH/s. Management clearly stated a full exit from large-scale mining by the end of 2026, reallocating plant power entirely to NVIDIA GPUs.
IREN sells all daily token output for cash, holding zero tokens on the books. Next steps include complete clearance of mining machines and computing power delivery by the end of December. $BTC $SNDK Recovery weak? Don't worry!
SanDisk was really fierce yesterday, the Democratic Party strictly prohibits regulating AI, storage plummeted in response, but finally caught up before the market opened today. Bottom-fishing funds have entered the market and it has begun to stabilize. Bears have already set their defense around 970-1000.
Sister Wen believes that recovering above 1000 should not be a big problem, but that level is not visible today. On Friday, funds mainly focused on defense, with little aggression.
After these violent declines in recent days, funds have clearly shrunk in volume, many bulls were liquidated, the downward space is no longer large, short positions have accumulated above, and there is significant room for upward movement.
The pre-market has already caught up, as long as it holds steady at the close tonight, Monday should see a wave of upward momentum, with a high probability of surpassing 1000 above. #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ What’s worth remembering about this FinTech Week in Hong Kong is not who spoke the most, but that three established institutions talked about the same thing.
HSBC’s timeline is practical: by 2027, it will establish a global AI and emerging technology research institute in Hong Kong to cultivate talent in artificial intelligence, blockchain, and quantum cryptography. The focus is on the research institute, not launching a token product. The bank is hiring, and the cycle is measured in years.
Standard Chartered talks about pipelines. Wintoss says the potential of stablecoins and tokenized deposits should be leveraged, while strengthening “interoperable market infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.” The key is interoperability: the ceiling for stablecoins is not issuance volume but whether banks can recognize each other’s accounts. $USDT’s circulation depends on its integration into the clearing process.
Franklin Templeton supplements the asset side: Gloria Zhuang believes blockchain and tokenized money market funds can improve payment and settlement efficiency. Trying tokenization with the most conservative products shows asset management seeks scenarios that can pass compliance reviews. Once the asset side is operational, the entry points for $BTC and $ETH won’t have to rely solely on ETFs.
Pakistan talks about incorporating digital assets into a secure regulatory environment, and the Thai SEC discusses a gradual path to integrating them into capital markets. The discussion is not about banning or allowing, but about how to integrate.
Connecting the dots: banks are hiring talent, the clearing layer is improving interoperability, asset management is enhancing assets, and regulators are defining pathways. These four things are happening simultaneously, pushing not emotions but processes.
What really needs attention is that the entire narrative is built on “stablecoins as infrastructure.” If the premise changes, the first to move won’t be prices but these pipelines under construction.In prediction markets, when people say things like "the coin is going to be listed, I have insider information," it sounds a bit off to me. Would someone who truly has insider info be so eager to share it with strangers?
When trading contracts, the main focus is on the price, and here you also have to consider under what conditions the event is considered to have occurred. If the odds go up, it means someone is willing to pay a higher price, but you can't tell if they really have insider knowledge or if they just heard the same rumors.
While I'm still scrutinizing the wording in the settlement terms, the comment section is already discussing it as if they've been in the project team's meeting room.The Democratic Party swept both the House and Senate, and the market immediately began pricing in expectations of tighter AI regulation, causing high-valuation compute power chains to be directly repriced. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Trump came out to deflect blame saying "It wasn't us," which is half true and half false. After the Democrats took control of both chambers, Trump's tax cuts and fiscal stimulus plans are likely to be blocked, and the expectation of tighter AI regulation directly smashed the valuation of compute power chains. But calling this a "warning to the Democrats" is a bit conspiratorial. The market won't play along with anyone's act; the severe drop this time is essentially due to three overlapping factors: First, the AI sector's valuation was already very high, with giants like Nvidia having negative free cash flow, and the market had long been worried about investment returns. Second, after the Democrats' victory, governors in key data center states like Texas also switched to Democrats, making the expectation of tighter local approvals a reality. Third, concentrated liquidations of highly leveraged long positions amplified panic, causing a stampede. So this is not a "warning," but a concentrated clearing caused by a sudden shift in political expectations combined with a valuation bubble. However, JPMorgan also said that the Democrats do not have the votes to override a presidential veto, so radical restrictive laws at the federal level are unlikely to pass; the real risk is concentrated in local approvals. This level of panic selling might actually be an opportunity for chip exchange. The key is whether the Nasdaq can hold steady at critical levels in the coming days. #USStocksSufferHeavySelloff: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index records largest single-day drop since March 2020 Tonight at 21:30 (Beijing Time), the US October Nonfarm Payrolls will be released. The consensus expects an increase of 59,000 jobs, compared to only 29,000 in September; from January 2025 to this September, the monthly average increase was only 35,000, with seven months of negative growth. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2% — the labor force has shrunk by nearly one million since last September, so the numerator is weak, and the denominator is retreating first as a courtesy.
The backdrop was already set last night: the Nasdaq dropped 5.52% into a correction range, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%, marking the largest single-day drop since March 2020, with concerns over AI capital expenditure compounded by regulatory expectations following the Democrats taking control of both chambers.
Currently, CME pricing shows about a 68.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. Most economists believe this report won’t change the December decision. The awkward situation is: if the data is too strong, rate hikes become more justified; if the data is too weak, recession narratives take over. Volatility is inevitable either way, so be cautious around the release.Nonfarm payrolls night coincides with SanDisk breaking down, oversold rebound possible, but it's too early to talk about a reversal
Dear shareholders, tonight at 21:30 is the nonfarm payrolls report. $SNDK hit a low directly breaking below 800 last night (touched 793.7), now the price has pulled back near 880, with extremely volatile intraday swings.
Let's talk about nonfarm first. The market expects an increase of only 60,000, but the ADP and ISM data from the past two days were actually not weak. Don't treat tonight's nonfarm as a signal for rate cuts—the data being too weak will first trigger hard landing panic; if the data is too strong, it will directly raise rate hike expectations, causing US Treasury yields to spike and the Nasdaq and crypto markets to get hammered. Tonight will most likely be a meat grinder with sharp up and down spikes.
Now about SanDisk. Why did it break below 800? Because of the Nasdaq's plunge, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's heavy drop, plus concerns about tighter AI regulation after the Democrats took both houses, dragging the entire sector down. SanDisk's Q1 earnings were actually very strong (revenue 11 billion, EPS 49.51 beating expectations), completely dragged down by macro sentiment overreaction.
My judgment: oversold pullbacks can be watched, but definitely don't treat it as a reversal.
The moving averages above are still diverging downward, and trend pressure remains heavy. The real medium-term turning point is the 1-for-8 stock split on November 19; before that, any sentiment recovery can only be considered a rebound, not a reversal.
With nonfarm landing tonight, I will stay on the sidelines in my live trading and not catch a falling knife. No matter how much rebound there is, I won't go heavy without seeing a right-side stable candlestick. This is not investment advice. Shareholders, do you think 800 can hold tonight? $XLRE
Non-farm cooling, when will the real estate sector truly benefit?
Tonight's employment report may affect expectations for financing costs. Real estate requires both lower capital costs and tenants' ability to pay. The interest rate cut expectations triggered by weak growth may come with pressure on occupancy rates and rents.
I am focusing on financing spreads, rent collection, and occupancy rates. If costs decrease while operational demand remains, recovery has a stronger foundation; if tenant pressure expands first, valuation rebounds will still need to be discounted.$ETH Last night's market action was not a pullback, it was a liquidation.
All three major indexes recorded their largest single-day drop since April 2025. The Nasdaq retreated 11.9% from its October 6 high, officially entering a technical correction.
🎯 The trigger was not economic data, but a single statement
After the Democrats swept both chambers, Arizona federal representative Ansari publicly stated: the top priority for the next Democratic Congress is to pause the development of advanced artificial intelligence, implement regulations, and impose a ban on super artificial intelligence. Senator Sanders simultaneously posted that the vast majority of voters in his district support pausing AI data center construction.
This statement hit an extremely vulnerable spot. The valuation anchor for AI trades over the past two years has been the linear extrapolation that "capital expenditure can expand indefinitely." The more data centers built, the more chips purchased, the higher the valuation given. The Democrats' signal directly tells the market: the approval channel for expansion may narrow, and the sustainability of capital expenditure needs to be repriced. The regulatory uncertainty brought by the midterm elections precisely hits the most fragile link in AI trades—the sustainability of capital expenditure.
Semiconductors are the hardware layer of AI infrastructure and are most sensitive to changes in policy direction and capital expenditure expectations, so the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than twice as much as the broader market. This does not mean AI demand has disappeared; the market is repricing the political friction around AI expansion.
$BTC $SNDK
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 Moderna was still stuck at a few dozen dollars at the beginning of the year, but after the phase 3 data for the melanoma vaccine came out in August, it forced a short squeeze, rising more than sevenfold within the year. Yesterday, it even surged to a historic intraday high of 261 — but the day before the earnings report, it dropped 6.5%, with profit-taking faster than anyone else.
For tonight's pre-market Q3 earnings report, I think the real focus isn't whether EPS can beat expectations. It has beaten 7 out of the past 8 quarters, and 94% of the community has bet Yes; this kind of "beat expectations" has long been priced in. What I want to see are two numbers: first, as Q3 is the peak vaccination season, whether the COVID vaccine is still selling well — this revenue has been shrinking every year, and whether the full-year guidance can hold; second, how long the cash on hand can last. As for the stock price, it has already surged 75% above the average analyst target price, so any slight disappointment in the earnings report will cause significant volatility.
I personally took a small position on Outcomes with a Yes bet, just for the sense of participation. Chasing with real money at this level is out of the question; the earnings report feels more like opening a blind box.Last night at 23:40, the BTC long position at 79,200 was liquidated, and my account retraced 6.8% in this round, while friends who were fully leveraged retraced over 18%. I reduced my leverage to 1x at 82,000, the cost being missing out on much of the upside, but the benefit is that I still have available funds.
Follow me and you can see two specific things: daily public real-position ratios and set stop-loss prices, as well as post-mistake reviews without deleting posts.
At the 76,000 level, I don’t look at charts but at the source of funds. US stocks have been weakening continuously, and risk assets are deleveraging overall. In such times, the crypto space is never a safe haven, just the one with the highest leverage. ETH dropped 7.6%, 2.3 points more than BTC, indicating funds are contracting into the hardest assets; QNT’s -6.8% is just passive following, so don’t rush to buy without an independent narrative.
Binance has resumed partial asset withdrawals, which some see as positive news. My view is that this is just the end of a liquidity event and does not generate new buying pressure. What really needs watching is whether the perpetual funding rate turns negative and when stablecoin net inflows return to positive. Until these two signals appear, my position cap is 30%.
So the choice is straightforward: do you wait for the funding rate to turn negative before entering your first position, or start averaging in at the 75,000 price level?
Follow me for daily public real-position ratios and stop-loss logic, and I write honestly even when losing.
#OKXProphet #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势
Seeing this news, four words immediately popped into my mind: taking advantage of a crisis. This is not just a simple international news story; it directly touches the lifelines of crude oil, US stocks, and the crypto market with a macro hidden thread.
1. The "Power Vacuum" Struggle
The Democrats have won but haven't handed over power yet, leaving a dangerous time window. The Trump administration still retains the option to take military action against Iran during this period, which is a form of strategic maneuvering. If a conflict breaks out in the Middle East, crude oil $BZ, which has risen 1.38%, will surely surge instantly. Once geopolitical risk sentiment ignites, gold will rise, and risk assets (Bitcoin, tech stocks) will definitely face a sharp sell-off.
2. The Hidden Thread of "Computing Power Being Choked"
Look at the community opinions below; they are extremely critical! After the Democrats take control of Congress, they will most likely target environmental protection and regulation, tightening data center approvals. What does this mean? It means the computing power expansion of cloud giants like Nvidia and Amazon will be directly restrained! Coupled with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index just plummeting yesterday, the valuations of tech stocks and the AI sector will be severely hammered by policy in the short term.
3. My Trading Iron Rule
The current macro environment is: rising geopolitical risks + heavy regulatory pressure on tech stocks + shrinking risk appetite. Under such macro conditions, absolutely avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves, and never blindly bottom-fish tech stocks.
I will closely watch the crude oil trend; once geopolitical tensions worsen, the rebound of Bitcoin and US stock tokens will be an excellent opportunity to short at highs.