ETH at $2240, are you cutting losses or adding positions?
ETF outflows nearly $100 million in a single day, leveraged longs liquidated $200 million, dragged down by the tech stock crash in the US market, fear and greed index dropped to 28 — but just now, ETH bounced hard back to 2240 after dropping from 2420 to 2206, with the 200-day moving average still firmly supporting it. Is this the final dip of emotional clearing, or the official start of the bear market?
First, look at the surface: all bad news hit, but the price didn’t collapse.
Down 7-8% in 24 hours, smashed from the intraday high of 2420 directly to 2206, altcoins fell even harder. Fear and greed index at 28-38, in the fear zone. BTC also dropped 7.6k, BTC dominance at 59%, money all fled into Bitcoin.
But did you notice? At the 2200 level, ETH touched several times and was pulled back each time. The candlesticks tell you: the 200-day moving average is at 2150-2160, RSI 39-40 near oversold, MACD bearish but flattening. It fell sharply but didn’t break the bottom line.
First thing: ETFs are running, leverage is liquidating, but someone is buying.
On November 5, the US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of nearly $100 million in one day, with BlackRock’s ETHA as the main contributor. Leveraged longs liquidated about $200 million.
Sounds like the apocalypse? But look at the price — it didn’t break 2200.
Who’s buying? Europe’s largest asset manager Amundi has a tokenized equity index fund on ETH, enterprise BitMine holds close to a certain supply ratio, and the Lean Ethereum roadmap was discussed at Devcon for 2029.
Retail investors are panic selling, institutions are quietly accumulating. The same script played out countless times at the 2022 bear market bottom — ETF outflows reflect sentiment, corporate hoarding reflects belief.
Second thing: You panic watching the candlesticks, but ETH’s fundamentals haven’t collapsed at all.
Staking rate at 36%, supply locked. DeFi TVL at $43 billion, stablecoin market cap $136 billion dominates, RWA and tokenized assets continue to grow. Daily volume and active addresses remain high.
ETH is not a meme; it’s the foundation for smart contracts and tokenized infrastructure. Price dropped, but usage didn’t decline, coins locked didn’t decrease, institutions kept entering.
When price and fundamentals decouple, which should you trust? In March 2020, ETH dropped to $80, fundamentals also “didn’t collapse,” then it rose to 4800.
Third thing: Today’s nonfarm payrolls report is the real judge.
Fed rate at 3.75%-4.00%, December rate hike probability is not low. CPI is hot, real rates high, dollar strong. Macro environment unfriendly to risk assets.
But today (November 6), the nonfarm employment report release is the key for short-term direction.
Strong data → hawkish expectations strengthen → ETH may retest 2200 or even break down
Weak data → easing expectations rise → rebound to 2280-2350
Are you shorting now? If data weakens, you get liquidated immediately. Are you going long now? If data is strong, you get stuck mid-way.
Long-short showdown, judge for yourself
On one side:
200-day moving average at 2150-2160 firmly supports the bottom
RSI near oversold, MACD flattening, downward momentum fading
Amundi tokenized fund + corporate hoarding, institutions buying
Staking rate 36%, supply locked, fundamentals healthy
2200 tested multiple times without breaking, strong psychological support
On the other side:
ETF outflow nearly $100 million in one day, selling pressure continues
Leverage liquidations $200 million, longs bloodied
Fed may hike rates, macro pressure
US tech stock sell-off spillover, low risk appetite
Fear and greed index 28, sentiment at freezing point
Key levels
Resistance above: 2250-2280 → 2350 → 2400-2420
Support below: 2200 (psychological + intraday low) → 2150-2160 (200-day MA) → 2100
Trading strategy
Wait-and-see (priority):
Wait for nonfarm report before acting. Strong data → wait for 2200 test or breakdown stabilization signal; weak data → wait for rebound to 2280-2350 to see if resistance holds.
Bullish players:
Buy lightly on dip to 2200-2210 stabilization (long lower shadow or volume bottoming), stop loss below 2150, target 2280/2350 for partial profit-taking. Position no more than 10-15% of total funds, leverage within 3-5x.
Bearish players:
Short on rebound to 2280-2320 resistance (RSI divergence or volume stagnation), stop loss above 2350, target 2200 then reassess. Strict stop loss, don’t hold losing positions.
Long-term believers:
Dollar-cost average in 2150-2200 range. Fell from highs, 200-day MA still supports, fundamentals intact. Target 5000-6000 by 2027, betting on tokenization + RWA + institutional adoption.
ETH now is like March 2020 —
99% thought “pandemic came, Ethereum is done,” but $80 was the historic bottom.
$BTC$SNDK$ETH
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
