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Lummis fired another shot.
This time it was aimed at the Democrats.
She said you yourselves requested a seat in the CFTC to represent retail investors, it was clearly written in the CLARITY Act, yet you turned around and voted against it.
I looked at it for a while and felt it was quite absurd.
It's like you were served a dish you ordered, but you say you won't eat it.
For those of us who hold crypto as a long-term position, this isn't new.
The people in Washington argue back and forth, but the core issue has never been about protecting retail investors; it's about who controls this territory.
Today they argue about the CFTC, tomorrow about the SEC, and the day after they change the name and keep arguing.
The actual implemented rules always lag behind the news by half a beat.
So this news basically has no short-term impact, and emotionally it even feels a bit negative—giving the impression that regulation is indefinitely far off.
But looking at it from another angle, at least it shows this matter is still on the table, not thrown into a drawer.
What do you think, will this repeated tug-of-war eventually produce a result, or will it just drag on until no one mentions it anymore?
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs flow out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
#Strategy accumulation slows, corporate treasury strategies changing? #Tokenized assets accelerate expansion, how far is large-scale implementation? $HYPE $XAU Gold has reached 4200, can this wave continue to be profitable?
Brothers, gold has already approached around 4200, not far from the first target we mentioned earlier! What to do next, Old K gets straight to the point!
First, the funds buying gold haven't stopped!
The Central Bank of Congo plans to increase its gold reserves from 3 tons to 5 tons by the end of the year. Global central banks continue to increase gold holdings, essentially to diversify risk and optimize reserve structures. Additionally, gold ETF holdings have increased by 2.281 tons, institutional funds are still worth watching, and the medium- to long-term logic for gold remains!
Second, the market has already started to offer opportunities!
Gold previously hit a low near 4156, then quickly pulled back, indicating funds are supporting the downside. After a sharp drop, a rebound appeared, and the 15-minute chart is gradually stabilizing, showing signs of short-term bulls gaining strength!
What’s the next move?
Keep watching for pullback opportunities around 4160; consider going long once it stabilizes. 4200 is the key level right now; if it breaks through and holds effectively, the next target is 4230!
It’s already near 4200; if you haven’t entered yet, don’t rush to chase. If you’re already in, keep a close eye on the key levels! Old K is optimistic about the subsequent rebound but won’t mess up his rhythm just to chase the market.
When the market comes, seize it; if the position isn’t right, wait! In trading, it’s not about who rushes faster but who can hold onto the profits they should take! #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed $BTC
BTC goes against the weakening trend of tech stocks.
BTC recovers after a dip, diverging from Korean chip stocks and Nasdaq futures ahead of US CPI data.
This movement may indicate BTC temporarily decoupling from risk assets.
OKX data: BTC 83,437.00 USDT, -0.82% in 24 hours, volume 583.1M USDT.
Do you think BTC can maintain this independent momentum?
Not investment advice. DYOR.
#SepCPIHikeWatch A little butterfly felt that the colors on its body were not as beautiful as those of its companions, so it asked God to help change its colors. God granted its request and gave it the right to freely choose its colors. Pointing to the colorful flowers, God said to the little butterfly, "Whatever color you like, roll on the flowers of that color, and then you will become that color." The little butterfly was overjoyed and first rolled on the red flowers, then did not want to give up the blue flowers. So it rolled on the blue flowers as well, then it thought the yellow flowers were beautiful. In this way, it rolled on all the flowers and eventually turned into a black butterfly. It burst into tears, unable to accept that it had become the ugliest colored butterfly. People's suffering often does not come from having no choices, but from having too many choices and being at a loss. Choice is a trade-off between pros and cons; there is no perfect choice in this world, otherwise it wouldn't be called a choice. When traders face many distinctive trading methods, they often cannot make a suitable trade-off for themselves. It seems that every method has times when it profits, and also times when it causes losses. At this point, traders may choose to make no choice at all, hoping to gain the advantages of all methods. You can choose one color, but if you absorb all the colors, the result can only be black, which is no color at all! In the process of combining trading methods, not only are all the advantages of the methods combined, but also all their disadvantages are combined.Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the September CPI will be released, which is the most important reference before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28.
Institutions expect that rising energy prices may push the overall CPI year-on-year from 3.4% to 3.7%, but the core CPI month-on-month growth rate may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. This combination is very critical: overall inflation is driven up by oil prices, but core inflation is cooling down. If the core CPI really slows, it indicates that price pressures have not spread, and the market will strengthen expectations for a pause in rate hikes.
However, officials are not easing up. Cleveland Fed President Mester clearly stated on October 12 that inflation pressures remain broad and support further rate hikes. CME data shows the market expects about a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. There is a large divergence between hawkish officials and market pause expectations.
This divergence is the source of volatility tomorrow night. If the overall CPI is relatively hot but core cools, the market will lean toward pause expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will fall back, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 83,500 to 84,500. If both overall and core exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, BTC will be under pressure, with support at 81,500 to 82,000, and if broken, look to 80,000.
BTC is now around 82,000, up 0.8%. Many defenders have piled up near 80,000, so this position has short-term support. But the direction is not yet chosen; before the data release tomorrow night, avoid heavy bets.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH. #September CPI release imminent, Mester says further rate hikes are still needed ✅ Closed long $TIA 20x
Entry: 0.5102 → Exit: 0.6000
Result: +350% ROE
I post every trade I make, both profits and losses. Do you currently hold $TIA?
Not investment advice. #OKXTraderVoices On October 12, Strategy announced the purchase of an additional 250 BTC, while also repurchasing approximately $192 million in STRC preferred shares. The company also disclosed that from October 5 to 11, it used $500,000 in cash to buy Bitcoin.
My interpretation: This time, it’s not just "buying more coins" but also adjusting the financing structure. Institutional fund arrangements differ from personal accounts, so don’t take the increase announcement as a direct signal to buy for yourself. #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? $BTC $ETH
🚨 【Major Institutional Withdrawal】BTC/ETH spot ETFs lost $1.2 billion in a single week, how long can this hollow rebound last?
Dual capital drain: From October 5 to 9, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $679 million (ending the previous three consecutive weeks of net inflows); ETH spot ETF outflows reached $542 million during the same period, marking the largest single-week outflow since January and recording nine consecutive trading days of net outflows; combined, the two saw a massive $1.221 billion drained in one week.
Price-volume divergence risk: Against the backdrop of major institutional real money withdrawals, the market price once weakly rebounded against the trend, forming a typical "capital exit vs. price illusion" divergence pattern. ETH’s performance was significantly weaker than BTC’s, reflecting institutions’ accelerating cooling of risk appetite for highly elastic assets.
Market outlook: The large-scale withdrawal before the release of key CPI data essentially represents smart money’s defensive hedge against macro interest rate hikes and inflation stickiness. The weak accumulation without spot ETF funds to support the bottom has no defense; before the flow turns back to net inflows, blind contrarian bets on a reversal are strictly prohibited.
(Personal review opinion, not investment advice. There are thousands of trading rules, preserving principal is the first!)Tomorrow we will look at ASML's earnings report; don't wait for a company that no longer discloses quarterly order figures.
ASML has stopped revealing quarterly new order amounts this year. The previous approach of directly comparing EUV orders to expectations needs to be adjusted. The signal given by the company in Q2 is a plan to increase low NA EUV capacity by about 30% by 2027 and to study further expansion in 2028. This arrangement is more specific than just saying demand is optimistic, but it still requires subsequent deliveries to be fulfilled.
Which year's equipment delivery corresponds to the customers' committed purchases? Is capacity expansion progressing as planned? These are the questions I want the management to answer. The amount for lithography machines is large, and whether orders fall at the end of the month or early next month can exaggerate a quarter's figures. Now that this disclosure is missing, investors need to cross-check customers' expansion plans with ASML's delivery schedule.
Don't treat "strong long-term demand" as a universal answer. Any lag in factories, components, or installation teams can push expected revenue back. The market buys future profits; a delay of a few months can significantly impact valuation. I remain interested in EUV demand and do not want to lower my expectations for the earnings report just because of its special status. What I really want to see on October 14 is a clearer delivery timetable. No one can track order enthusiasm daily, but at least let external investors know when the expanded capacity is expected to start generating revenue.
#ASMLQ3EarningsReport announced on October 14, with EUV orders as the focus $AGLD Damn it! The AGLD chart makes me shake my head. Outside it's quiet, but inside the market is like dogs biting each other. The 0.1901 level is obviously a manipulative pump-and-dump by the dog market makers. The upper shadow on the candlestick looks like a sickle, almost saying "I'm ready to dump." Even a shakeout doesn't play out like this. Do they really think retail investors are blind? 🔥
Technically, everything signals to run. The capital flow is just hollow. Don't expect any good news. Short positions for the short term, set stop loss at 0.1980. If it breaks, accept it, don't hold on. The target is around 0.1780 first; reduce your position when it gets there.
Don't get emotional in this market; whether you follow or not is up to you. If you want to secretly ambush with me, click the card below and do it yourself. Control your position size and always set a stop loss. 🚀
This content is only my personal review and does not constitute investment advice.
👇👇👇Today $ETH dropped, and the current price is around 2507 USD, down 1.44%.
Moreover, the volatility within 24 hours was especially large, with a high of 2578 and a low of 2407, swinging 170 USD up and down in one day.
Simply put: it had risen continuously for 5 days before, rising too fast, and today it started to pull back, with a fairly large correction.
What changed compared to yesterday?
Let me tell you a few key changes.
First change: the pullback really came.
Yesterday I said the short-term rise was too fast, the 4-hour RSI reached 100, so a pullback was inevitable. As a result, it really dropped today, from 2565 to 2507, down about 2.3%.
And the lowest even touched 2407, just 2 USD above the previous low of 2405, indicating a quick dip that washed out those who chased the highs earlier.
Second change: the overbought condition has been fully digested.
Yesterday the 4-hour RSI was still 100 (extremely overbought), today it has dropped to 40; the 2-hour RSI fell from 82 to 43. This means the bubble accumulated from the rapid rise has mostly been squeezed out, now returning to a neutral zone.
Third change: the big trend signal is still intact.
Although the price dropped, the daily KDJ golden cross remains (K is still above D), and the MACD green bars are still shrinking. This indicates the major rebound trend has not been broken; this is just a normal pullback during the upward process.
Fourth change: short sellers are still exiting.
Open interest has decreased again, from 580,000 to 560,000. This shows short sellers are still closing positions and running; with them gone, there are fewer sellers pressing down.
Should you buy or sell now?
I think this is a position where you can consider light positioning, but not heavy, because tomorrow night there is CPI data.
Why say it’s a position to consider?
First, the overbought condition has been digested, so short-term it won’t fall much.
Second, the price is now at 2507, right near the 5-day moving average (2514), which is a short-term support level.
Third, the big trend signal is still intact, the daily KDJ golden cross remains.
Fourth, below that is the 60-day moving average (2492) and the lower Bollinger Band (2450), strong supports that are hard to break.
But why say don’t go heavy?
Because tomorrow (October 14) at 8:30 PM the CPI data will be released, which is very important. Before the data comes out, no one can predict what will happen. If the data is bad (inflation higher than expected), there might be another drop; if the data is good (inflation lower than expected), the price will continue to rise.
So at this position, you can buy a little lightly first, then add more after the data clarifies the direction.
What will happen next?
I think there are three possibilities.
First possibility (most likely, 50%): oscillate between 2490 and 2550, waiting for tomorrow’s CPI data.
For the rest of today and tomorrow daytime, it will likely fluctuate in this range, everyone waiting for the evening data, no one daring to act rashly.
Second possibility (30%): good CPI data, continue to rebound.
If tomorrow night’s inflation data is lower than expected, indicating less pressure to raise rates, Ethereum will continue to rise, targeting first 2580, then 2625.
Third possibility (20%): bad CPI data, second dip.
If tomorrow night’s inflation data is higher than expected, indicating more rate hikes, Ethereum may break below 2490 to test 2450 or even the previous low of 2405.
It rose too fast before, today’s pullback is normal, the overbought condition has been digested, now 2500 to 2520 is a position for light positioning, but don’t go heavy because tomorrow night’s CPI data will decide the direction. Good data means continue rising, bad data may cause a second dip. Participate lightly, set stop losses, and add positions after the data is out.
The above is just my analysis based on data and does not constitute investment advice. This market is volatile, so be sure to control your position size.$NEAR This ID's view: The 30-minute chart shows a bearish pattern, but the long-term uptrend remains unchanged. Avoid entering the market for the next couple of days.
NEAR peaked at 6.024 in this rally and then pulled back, representing a secondary correction after a strong rise, indicating short-term bearishness. A short position can be tried on a rebound to the 5.32 resistance zone, with a target at the 4.98 support level and a stop loss set above 5.45. If it breaks above 5.45, abandon the bearish outlook.
According to Chan theory, the rise started from the 4.3 low, forming an upward consolidation zone. The 6.024 level formed a 30-minute top fractal, and the current move is a corrective wave. The long-term bullish trend remains, but short-term correction risks are evident.
From the Wyckoff volume-price perspective, the high volume at the peak indicates profit-taking, and the rebound volume continues to shrink, showing weak buying support.
Key observation: Stagnation at 5.32 is a shorting opportunity; a strong volume breakout and hold above 5.45 signals the end of the correction and the bearish position should be abandoned.Has the AI computing power battle spread to BTC mining farms?
On October 11, according to The Information, Anthropic signed a multi-year, previously undisclosed cloud contract with cloud service provider IREN. After Barron's follow-up report on October 12, IREN's stock price surged about 4% in pre-market trading, reaching $36.57.
Neither company has responded to requests for comment.
Interestingly, during IREN's earnings call in August this year, they mentioned signing with a "leading cutting-edge AI lab" without naming it. Now it seems very likely to be Anthropic. If the rumor is true, won't IREN's stock price skyrocket?
IREN was formerly a Bitcoin mining company and rebranded in 2024 to transform into an AI cloud provider, effectively converting mining electricity and data centers directly into AI computing power. Last year, it signed a $9.7 billion AI cloud deal with Microsoft, and in May this year, it partnered with NVIDIA to deploy 5GW of computing infrastructure—now teaming up with Anthropic, the transformation story is gaining momentum.
This contract is just the tip of the iceberg.
But the strangest thing is:
Last night, IREN not only erased all the gains from the day before yesterday but also dropped several points, hitting a recent low!
The truth of the news is uncertain; let's watch and see. Bold investors might open a small long position to bet on IREN.
#IREN's first Microsoft AI cloud project delivered, mining company transformation draws attention The convenience store owner downstairs kept talking about this the year before last.
I took it as a joke.
Later, I got itchy hands and threw a few hundred bucks in.
The first purchase was $BTC.
After buying, it dropped.
It dropped so much that I got up in the middle of the night to check my phone.
Then I tried $ETH.
There are many things on the chain.
The fees are also expensive.
One operation wasted half a day.
Later, I heard people say $SOL is fast.
Transferred a small amount to try.
It’s really fast.
But the traps are real too.
Some projects disappear just like that.
After losing a few times, I learned my lesson.
Don’t chase hot topics.
Don’t follow tips.
Don’t touch what you don’t understand.
Write down your private keys yourself.
Don’t give them to anyone who asks.
Don’t click on unfamiliar links.
No matter how tempting the airdrop is, don’t connect your wallet recklessly.
Now I only hold money I don’t mind losing.
Just leave it there.
Don’t get carried away when it rises.
Don’t panic when it falls.
There are many opportunities in this industry.
But there are even more traps.
Living long is more important than making a quick profit.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t get obsessed.
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
Leave the rest to time.#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs flow out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening?
#Microsoft releases new generation AI chip, stock price hits annual high SOL hit a low of 101.56 yesterday, then quickly bounced back to 108, a strong $7 emergency injection. But it still dropped over 4 points in 24 hours, so don’t mistake the rebound for a turnaround.
Today, Hong Kong listed Pando’s SOL ETF, while on the other side, the US spot SOL fund saw a net outflow of $24.8 million last week, breaking a 14-week streak of inflows. New products open, old money flows out, showing two faces of the market.
The futures contracts don’t give a clear answer either: fees are slightly negative, but open interest actually increased by about 1%. Some are still entering the market, but just looking at open interest doesn’t reveal bullish or bearish sentiment. 101.56 was the recent low, and around 113 is resistance above. Let’s first see if this bounce is supported by spot volume.
For those trading SOL contracts, do you trust the new Hong Kong ETF more, or the US capital retreat? $SOL $DOGE DUMPED TO 0.08005, THEN SNAPPED BACK HARD.
I watched the 1h candles bleed from 0.08813, then a long wick tagged the low. Four green candles later, price sits at 0.08473, up 3.04% today.
Sharp reversals test patience more than entries do. Did you wait for confirmation or chase the bounce?
$DOGE$ETH Ethereum has dropped nearly 15% from 2779, the mid-term trend has shifted, and now 2514 is a delicate balance period. The upside faces huge selling pressure; until a clear strong bullish candle breaks the key resistance, all upward moves are just rebounds.
From a technical perspective, it is in a 2-hour descending channel, suppressed by EMA7; MACD shows a nascent bullish divergence, indicating the bears' strength may be exhausted.
The Bollinger Bands middle line at 2525 is strong resistance; below the middle line is the bears' control zone; 2500 is psychological support, and breaking below it will head straight to 2450.
Trading strategy:
Wait for a rebound to 2530-2540 and a bearish pattern to appear before shorting, stop loss at 2565, target 2460.
Or buy on a pullback to 2460-2470 if it holds and MACD forms a golden cross, stop loss at 2435.
A safer approach is to wait for a breakout and stable hold above 2550, then buy on a pullback confirmation, which has a higher success rate! #September CPI announcement is imminent, Harker says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? ETFs are selling, whales are buying, who is this BTC drama for?
BTC performed a "V-shaped reversal" today. It briefly dropped below $81,500 this morning (down about 3.4% in 24 hours), now back near $83,500. ETH also recovered from below $2,425 to around $2,517. The entire network saw $770 million liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions.
But the data hides a divergence: US spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of $681 million last week, the largest weekly outflow since June; on the other hand, on-chain whales increased their BTC holdings by about 15,000 BTC in 72 hours. Institutions are redeeming, whales are accumulating — bulls and bears are directly clashing.
Tomorrow the US CPI will be released, the next catalyst. ETF money is running out, whale money is coming in. Do you think this rebound is a real stabilization or just a breather after a drop?
Risk warning: Macro data can fluctuate greatly before and after release, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice.
#Bitcoin$BREV Last night I was still calculating if this month's instant noodle money would be enough, and this morning I was already thinking about whether to add sausage. Thanks to the market for the meal with this short position.
When the market was just smashed in the early session, BREV rebounded near 0.09052, but the volume didn't keep up, and the resistance above was obvious, with a strong bait to the long side. I judged it was just a breather, not a reversal, and at that time I advised to be bearish and enter short positions in batches.
Then it continued to go down, the price hit 0.08387, the short position yield was +146.7%, the wait was worth it. When the rhythm is right, profits speak for themselves; the earlier hesitation turned out to be really rewarding.
Take profit on 80% of the main position first, move the protection to the cost price for the remaining 20%, let the profits run if it continues to drop, and don't give back gains on the rebound.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
Have a strategy before the market, discipline during the market, and reflection after the market.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing shorts easily gets caught by rebounds. Wait for the next signal before moving, I will notify immediately.
$ETH $LAB South Korea Takes Action: 27 Exchange Websites Directly Blocked, Including KuCoin and MEXC
This time, South Korea is serious. The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) announced today that after two rounds of review by the Korea Communications Standards Commission on October 6 and 7, it decided to block domestic access to the websites of 27 unregistered virtual asset operators. KuCoin, MEXC, Phemex, Bitrue, CoinW, and BingX are all on the list.
There are two key details: first, previously only apps were blocked (banned from installation and updates in app stores), but this time entire websites are blocked—servers located in Korea are shut down, and overseas servers are cut off from access; second, there is no need to wait for victims—once confirmed as unregistered operators, the block is immediate. The FIU also found that these platforms charge average fees ranging from 1.5% to 10%, up to 62 times higher than the top five domestic Korean exchanges (0.16%).
The FIU also admits that blocking the websites may affect existing users’ withdrawals, and will coordinate withdrawal channels through DAXA. Friends using these platforms in Korea should withdraw their coins first.
Risk Warning: Regulatory policies change rapidly; please refer to official announcements. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BitcoinI've been paying close attention to ZEC recently and want to share my thoughts.
$ZEC's current market movement is actually quite interesting.
Most altcoins are now focusing on ecosystems, AI, and RWA, but ZEC is taking a different path—privacy.
Privacy itself isn't a new narrative; Zcash started working on zero-knowledge proofs quite early. The issue was that the market wasn't willing to pay a high premium for privacy in the past, but this expectation is now changing.
However, narratives aside, price still needs to reflect on the charts.
ZEC rose too quickly earlier, so the recent pullback from the highs is not surprising. The profits accumulated from the continuous rise need to be digested, and it's not easy to directly start a second major upward wave in the short term.
Next, I’m mainly watching a few key levels.
On the downside, watch 1110–1130 first; if this area holds, there’s still a chance to retest 1200 upwards.
On the upside, 1220 is the first resistance level; to truly regain strength, it needs to break through 1300.
If 1110 fails to hold, be prepared for a further pullback to 1050 or even 1000.
Now, about the fundamentals.
What attracts me most about ZEC is its relatively simple value logic. As more financial activities move on-chain, is transaction transparency really what everyone wants?
#ZEC #Zcash#strategy increased holdings by 250 BTC
[Old Chive Observation] Strategy only bought 250 $BTC in a week, has the coin hoarding rhythm changed?
Strategy's latest disclosure shows that from October 5 to 11, it purchased 250 BTC, spending about $21.5 million, with an average cost of approximately $86,194. Including this purchase, the company now holds 848,250 BTC.
Looking solely at holdings, Strategy remains a major player in the Bitcoin market. But if you look at the week's capital movements together, the picture looks a bit different: it also repurchased about $192.4 million worth of STRC preferred shares during the same period, nearly 9 times the amount spent on buying coins.
Previously, everyone focused on how much BTC Strategy bought and whether it would continue to increase its position. Now, besides the amount of coins bought, attention must also be paid to how it allocates funds and arranges financing tools.
Of course, buying less in a week doesn't mean it is bearish on Bitcoin, nor can it be used to judge a shift in long-term strategy. It's just that this increase in holdings is indeed small, and the market doesn't need to equate "continuing to buy coins" directly with "strongly bullish."
For BTC, Strategy's continued large holdings provide a long-term support narrative; but short-term market trends ultimately depend on real buying demand and market liquidity, and cannot be judged solely by a holding announcement. $BTC A while ago, an old classmate pulled me into a group chat
He posts his trades every day
I watched so much that my hands got itchy
Threw in a few hundred bucks
The first buy was $BTC
After buying, it just slowly dropped
It dropped so much I started picking cheaper takeout
Later I tried $ETH
There are many things on the chain
But the fees are brutal
One transaction takes forever and feels wasted
Then I heard $SOL is fast
Transferred a little money to try
It’s really fast
But also really risky
Some projects disappear just like that
Lost a few times before I got serious
Don’t chase hot trends
Don’t follow trade calls
Don’t touch what I don’t understand
Write down your private keys yourself
Don’t give them to anyone who asks
Don’t click on unknown links
No matter how tempting airdrops are, don’t connect your wallet recklessly
Now I only hold money I won’t mind losing
Just let it be
Don’t get cocky when it rises
Don’t panic when it falls
There are many opportunities in this field
But even more traps
Surviving longer is more important than making a quick profit
Don’t borrow money
Don’t get greedy
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits
Leave the rest to time#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening?
#Microsoft releases next-gen AI chip, stock hits yearly high Money is moving, price hasn't crashed: Who is holding firm above 80000?
Since October, ETF outflows have exceeded $1 billion: BTC $679 million, ETH $542 million, with ETH also recording the largest single-week outflow since January and nine consecutive trading days of continuous outflows.
Interestingly, the coin price only slid from 84000 to 81500. Despite significant selling pressure, it hasn't crashed—indicating someone is absorbing it. BTC market dominance rose to 59.35%, money is concentrating into Bitcoin, and on-exchange funds are still holding firm.
Don't be fooled by the "no crash." Spot participation is very thin, put options are being aggressively bought, and below 80000 there is a cluster of liquidation points. To translate: the bulls are holding firm above 80000 with thin buy orders, and below that is basically empty air.
There is another key level: 83000. This is the average cost line for ETFs and the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it can't hold, holders start to see unrealized losses, and redemptions will only increase—outflows, price drops, more outflows. The worst scenario in this cycle is breaking below the cost line.
ETH is even worse: nine consecutive outflows, intraday low at 2409, just shy of the previous low. Institutions are much more determined to withdraw ETH than BTC.
In terms of strategy: treat any rebound as just a rebound for now; wait for ETFs to turn positive and for 83000 to hold with volume before making moves. Before tomorrow night's CPI release, those rushing in are just catching knives. Do you think ETFs can turn positive this week?
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? Dogecoin got a new engine installed, let an experienced user explain
The most exciting news for me these days: a company called Metallicus has launched a test version of DogecoinVM on the mainnet, making Dogecoin transactions about 300 times faster.
Don't understand?
I'll explain it in a simple way. The original Dogecoin transfers were like an old-fashioned cash register, processing transactions one by one in line—safe but slow. The new solution is like adding a row of self-checkout machines next to it, while the original cash register remains untouched. It doesn't change Dogecoin's underlying layer but wraps an additional parallel network outside: the fast one handles speed, the old one handles security.
The CEO also said this fulfills Elon Musk's original vision of using Dogecoin for payments. I like hearing that. In 2019, the first time I used $DOGE to transfer, it was to tip a few cents to a user on a foreign forum, and it took almost ten minutes to arrive. Back then, I thought if this thing could be a bit faster, it could really be used as money.
Now, someone has taken action on that "a bit faster." Whether it succeeds or not is another story, but this is the direction I've been waiting for seven years.
The joy of old fans is simple: the market can wait, but the words "can be spent" are what really matter.$BTC BTC quickly recovered after the drop, with the 4-hour chart completing two bottom tests, which is a somewhat positive signal: it did not break the previous low; even if it later tries to break below the previous low, it will form a 4-hour bullish divergence structure.
However, on the long-term rhythm, the 3-day MACD has already formed a death cross, so at this stage, avoid chasing highs. The current strategy is that shorting on rallies offers better risk-reward.
Once the trend turns, it won't reverse easily. The current market long-short ratio has reached 1.6, with bottom-fishing funds crowding in; even if the market temporarily stabilizes, it will most likely continue to test the bottom repeatedly with oscillations.
Today's trading plan:
Short positions can be set up in the 83,500 to 84,000 range
Stop loss: 84,500
Target: 80,800
Position size 5.5, leverage 10x
On the macro level: September CPI data is about to be released, and Powell has indicated there is still room for further rate hikes; BTC and ETH spot ETFs continue to see capital outflows, with institutional buying demand clearly weakening.
The market has repeatedly tested support, showing weakness; do not be fooled by quick spike rebounds.It's still the same old talk about near. Over the weekend, taking advantage of low liquidity, it exploded upward to a new high of 6, closing at 15k with an upper shadow. Afterwards, due to the overall weakness of the market, it dropped from 6 all the way down below 4.9 this morning. Bulls and bears diverged at the integer level of 6. Also, the funding rate for the bulls in this coin is at most 0.01, but the bears don't have this cap, right? Isn't that cheap? I've never seen the bulls' funding rate exceed 0.01. The long-short ratio went from less than one to greater than one. Are you telling me there are more shorts? Could it be that the long-short ratio is distorted? I saw this issue in a post last time. Additionally, continue raising interest rates, explode this coin $NEAR, and Chuanzi quickly deploy ground forces to cripple Iran so badly that it won't come out to talk for decades. This is the best.$ETH Today's Market Analysis!!!
Good morning, friends! Did you catch that short position last night?
Reviewing yesterday, ETH rebounded from a low point all the way up to around 2578, then started a continuous pullback. Sister Qin had already advised everyone to watch for shorting opportunities at the high levels, targeting the 2530–2500 range. After the US market opened, the rebound remained weak, and the price smoothly reached the target zone!
Unexpectedly, there was another dip around midnight, hitting a low near 2405, catching many long position followers off guard.
However, strong buying support appeared near 2405. After the Asian session opened this morning, the market quickly rebounded, rising over 100 points in a short time. On-chain funds also continued to flow in, indicating that there is still capital paying attention at the low levels.
What’s next?
Sister Qin believes that although the short-term rebound is obvious, it’s still too early to chase longs! Focus on the resistance near 2530 above and observe whether the price can effectively hold above it.
If there is a volume breakout and the price holds steady, the rebound has a chance to continue. But if the price fails to rally and faces pressure again, be cautious of a potential pullback risk.
$ZEC #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed Brothers, did your heart just drop by half again when you checked the market this morning? 💔$BTC $ETH
$BTC directly broke below the $83,000 mark, dipping as low as around $82,900! U.S. Treasury yields are soaring, the macro situation is tense, and retail investors in the market are once again holding their heads and crying out loud, shouting that “the bull’s quick return” is a scam! The big group chat is full of wails, and some have even started preparing to cut losses and place sell orders... 😭📉
But have you seen the truth behind it?! 💥
On-chain data is so hardcore it’s shocking: the on-chain holdings of the U.S. spot BTC ETF have officially surpassed 2 million coins (over 10% of the global total supply)! Wall Street institutions and giants are still crazily accumulating, and even if the market pulls back in a single week, buying pressure remains strong!
Wall Street is using macro sentiment to hammer the price down and accumulate, while retail investors are cutting losses and shooting themselves in the foot! Is this a bear trap to shake out weak hands, or the final warning to exit?$ZEC ZEC/USDT perpetual 30-minute chart, bearish pattern, bearish sentiment but no shorting due to unclear overall market conditions.
My view: The market initially surged then pulled back, probing down to a low of 1112.06. Currently, it is a minor recovery rebound after a sharp drop, with the overall major trend still weak. Wait for the price to rebound to the 1230 resistance level before attempting to short. The first target is the 1180 support, with a stop loss set above 1245. If this level is broken, the bearish outlook should be paused.
Chan theory structure: The downtrend started from the high of 1383.76, forming a purple downward continuation zone midway. After hitting the low of 1112.06, a rebound occurred forming the second purple zone shown in the chart; then the price broke down again to a new low. The current rise is just a pullback after the breakdown and does not reverse the main 30-minute downtrend structure.
Wyckoff volume-price observation: The main down phase showed volume expansion on the way down, but this rebound’s volume has clearly shrunk. The buying support is insufficient, and funds have not continuously entered to bottom fish. This is a weak rebound after a decline, with weak bullish attack strength.
Key observation: Focus closely on the 1230 resistance level. If the rebound stalls here with volume contraction, it is a shorting opportunity; if volume expands and price holds above 1245, it indicates short-term bullish strength and bearish views should be reconsidered. $ASTER is quite conflicted: the perpetual exchange behind it consistently ranks among the industry's top in daily volume, yet the platform token itself has dropped 70% from its peak, with a market cap now only 1.8 billion.
The usual logic for platform tokens is that good business means a valuable token. Aster indeed captured volume—offering 1000x leverage and nearly free fees, overshadowing many established DEXs. But the market clearly doesn't trust the quality of this volume: the trading driven by subsidies and high leverage depends on whether fees get cut or not. The token price dropping 70% in a year is traders' way of grading this.
Even more awkward is the token distribution. Only about 30% is circulating; the remaining 60%+ is locked in the ecosystem, treasury, and team, untouched. The current 1.8 billion market cap corresponds to a fully diluted valuation of 5.7 billion, meaning today's platform valuation has already been prepaid more than twice over by tokens not yet released. The supply looming above the price on the ground is even more unsettling.
Compared to HYPE in the same sector, there's a 20x market cap gap. For the same business, the market's discount on Aster is understandable.
Around 0.7 is the level where this rebound has been repeatedly tested; breaking above it would recover this week's losses. Below, 0.65 was the recently established bottom. As long as the divergence between business and token price remains uncorrected, every green candle is just an oversold reflex. #Institutional Continuous Positioning, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure?
Core Phenomena
1. Macro liquidity is the biggest ceiling; the interest rate environment suppresses risk asset valuations
Bitcoin itself does not generate cash flow; its valuation is highly influenced by real interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields.
Even if institutions keep allocating, if long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, a large amount of capital will prioritize high-yield fixed income assets and be unwilling to assign higher valuations to highly volatile crypto assets.
At the same time, the market is constantly playing a game with the Fed's rate cut pace: inflation data fluctuates, employment remains resilient, and the market keeps postponing rate cut expectations, making it difficult for risk assets to sustain a major rally. As long as rate cut expectations are not truly realized, every rebound is treated as a window to reduce positions.
2. ETFs are a "two-way channel," allowing both buying and continuous selling
Many mistakenly believe ETFs only have net inflows, which is the biggest misconception.
Spot ETFs effectively provide Wall Street asset managers, pension funds, and family offices with a high-liquidity outlet for one-click buying and one-click redemption selling.
After a wave of large weekly net inflows, it is easy to see profit-taking and large net outflows follow. One wave of big money comes in, while another wave of earlier investors redeems directly to cash out during the rebound. The net inflow buying is directly offset by the redeemed selling.
Institutional positioning ≠ all institutions uniformly bullish; some institutions are building positions gradually on dips, while others are taking profits and exiting on rallies.
3. Heavy selling pressure from whales and high-level trapped positions creates a thick resistance zone aboveWant to know what TSMC will say in advance? Check ASML on Wednesday morning first
TSMC reports earnings on Thursday, but the real preview airs Wednesday morning—ASML delivers first. The logic is simple: ASML sells lithography machines to TSMC, and EUV orders are a leading indicator of TSMC's capacity expansion.
ASML's current forecast: revenue of €11.66 billion, up 53% year-over-year, gross margin 55%-57%. But the numbers aren't the main point; the focus is on two things: how many new EUV orders there are, and whether the 2027 outlook will be raised. Its EUV capacity is already booked through 2027, with plans to expand capacity by another 30% in 2027.
To translate: if ASML's EUV orders explode, it means an early official announcement that TSMC's capital expenditure will increase, making Goldman Sachs' $85 billion call solid; if orders are weak, TSMC's guidance on Thursday is expected to be cut by 30%.
Interestingly, ASML has already risen 66% this year, and its valuation isn't cheap. "Meeting expectations" might not be enough—same problem as TSMC: expectations are maxed out, and the biggest fear is good news being fully priced in.
For the crypto community: the sentiment front for AI-themed coins is Wednesday morning, but don't bet heavily. The real main event Wednesday is the 8:30 PM CPI release; BTC's main storyline is still there. Two big shows, which one will you watch?
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance to be revealed $ZEC finally drops from $1,348 to $1,230, but my short is still far underwater. 😩
My entry was $816, and this pullback barely helps. Resistance sits near $1,320, with support around $1,200.
All eyes are on tomorrow’s CPI data. Hot inflation could push ZEC below $1,200 toward $1,050, while softer data may trigger a bounce toward $1,320.
For now, this looks more like profit-taking before CPI than a confirmed trend reversal.
Being stuck in a short is exhausting.#BTC and ETH Spot ETFs Simultaneously Outflowing, Has Institutional Demand Weakened?
Here's the core conclusion in one sentence: In the short term, this reflects a decline in risk appetite and concentrated profit-taking by traders, which does not mean that institutions have completely abandoned allocations in the medium to long term, nor should it be directly equated with "institutional demand has already weakened."
1. What is the background of this simultaneous outflow?
In the past week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million, and ETH spot ETFs had an outflow of $542 million, a fairly obvious synchronized redemption, coinciding with several reinforcing factors:
1. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose again, inflation data fluctuated, and the market continuously pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, causing high-valuation risk assets to be collectively devalued;
2. After a rebound in September, prices reached a heavy resistance zone above, prompting short-term trading institutions and family offices that entered earlier to take profits;
3. Geopolitical risks increased, leading to a contraction in overall market risk appetite—not only in crypto but also Nasdaq and growth stocks faced pressure simultaneously, representing cross-asset risk-off rebalancing rather than a standalone bearish view on BTC/ETH.
2. The most critical misconception: ETF outflows ≠ all institutions are selling
Many people treat ETF fund flows as a unified institutional vote, but here we must separate two completely different types of funds:
✅ One type is short-term trading funds (the main force behind this outflow)
Hedge funds and asset managers doing swing trades use ETFs for trend trading. They buy on a rise, hit resistance, and face macro uncertainties.Is AI hardware about to change the game?
The storage and optical communication sectors have collectively plunged this round, with SanDisk $SNDK down 5.97%, Micron Technology $MU down 3.88%, and Lumentum $LITE sharply falling 9.78%.
The previous AI infrastructure frenzy pushed related stocks too high, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking. Coupled with market concerns about intensified competition in advanced memory in China and capacity release, investors quickly chose to cash out when sensing the wrong direction, causing sentiment to collapse rapidly.
This is actually the painful transition period for AI hardware speculation shifting from purely story-driven to performance realization. The market had overly optimistic high growth expectations earlier, so once any sign of marginal growth slowdown appears, a stampede is inevitable.
In the short term, the sector will inevitably experience volatility and bottoming, but the moat of giants in the AI foundation remains. As the earnings window approaches, companies with real technological barriers and solid orders will differentiate themselves. Next, it depends on whether the financial reports can withstand the high valuations.
DYOR #SanDisk MSCI Rebalancing Takes Effect, NAND Valuation in Focus
SanDisk closed at 1487.33 on 10.12 Eastern Time, plunging 5.97% in a single day, with an intraday low of 1464.43. The storage sector collectively plunged, Micron fell in sync, SK Hynix and Kioxia retreated in tandem. Recent trend characteristics: 6 down days out of 7 trading days, entering a weak consolidation phase of continuous correction.
The core logic behind the decline mainly includes the following points:
1. Capital begins to speculate that profit growth has peaked, NAND price increase slope slows; mid-to-long-term fundamentals, 93.9 billion long-term contract orders, and 14 billion buyback plans remain unchanged, but the market no longer blindly trades high growth.
2. ChangXin Memory's 4F² architecture breakthrough, the market prices in intensified future NAND competition in advance.
3. Buyback plans of leading Japanese and Korean memory companies ended early, lacking buying support, capital concentrates on cashing out high-level AI storage targets.
4. Federal Reserve officials' hawkish statements delay rate cut expectations, suppressing high-valuation growth stocks. This correction's most critical threshold. If volume breaks below 1420 = continuation of the bearish trend, opening further downside space. As long as this level holds, there is a chance for a short-term recovery rebound to brew. #SanDisk Micron Decline, ChangXin Technical Progress in Focus #OKX Million Planner 【On-Chain Trading Update｜STRK】
Monitored address 0x0c1f opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 0.08802 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 118,665.58 USD
▪ Leverage: 5x
Does anyone share the same view on this long position?
Note: This address has earned over 358,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +76.31% A while ago, an old classmate pulled me into a group
He posted profit charts every day
I kept watching and got tempted
I took a few hundred yuan to try
The first purchase was $BTC
Right after buying, it dropped
It dropped so much I was still checking my phone late at night
Later I tried $ETH
There are many things on the chain
The fees are also high
One operation wasted half a day
Then I heard people hype $SOL as fast
Transferred a small amount to play
It’s really fast
But also really risky
Some projects disappear just like that
After losing a few times, I learned my lesson
Don’t chase hot topics
Don’t follow trading calls
Don’t touch what you don’t understand
Write down your private keys yourself
Don’t give them to anyone who asks
Don’t click on unknown links
No matter how tempting airdrops are, don’t connect your wallet recklessly
Now I only use money I won’t mind losing
Just leave it there
Don’t get cocky when it rises
Don’t panic when it falls
There are many opportunities in this field
But even more traps
Surviving longer is more important than making a quick profit
Don’t borrow money
Don’t get emotional
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits
Leave the rest to time#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening?
#Microsoft releases next-generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high On the eve of CPI: 1.16 billion liquidations, the market falls first out of respect
Last night the crypto market fell first out of respect: BTC broke 82,000, 1.16 billion liquidations with over 90% longs, ETH dropped over 5%.
But this wave isn’t just about crypto: Nasdaq down 0.71%, Philadelphia Semiconductor -2.67%, KOSPI intraday -4%. Falling together—tied by the same rope called US Treasury yields.
30-year US Treasury at 5.70%, highest since 2002. Who still holds BTC when you can earn 5%+ risk-free? Tech stocks and crypto are similar assets: they rely on "future" stories, and when rates rise, everything gets discounted.
Options are counterintuitive: put options pile up at 76k/78k/80k strikes, but 7-day implied volatility dropped from 34.5% to 32%—volatility falls as price falls, no one really expects a big event tomorrow night. Defense is maxed out, but no bullets loaded.
Biggest divergence: Harker hawkish, CME bets 79.5% no rate hike in October. Who’s lying? See you tomorrow night at 20:30.
Three numbers: Core CPI month-on-month expected 0.16%-0.21%, a 0.1% deviation means the difference between 80,000 and 75,000; BTC resistance at 83,500-84,500, support at 81,000; ETH broke 2,401, 553 million long positions liquidated.
Trading advice: don’t heavily bet on direction before data, reduce leverage on rebounds if your position is heavy. Tomorrow night at 20:30, will you be watching the market or waking up to see the results?
#September CPI announcement imminent, Harker says further rate hikes still needed First, record the position of $ENA, then discuss the viewpoint: current price is 0.2136, about 6.93% away from the 1-hour support at 0.1988, and about 15.12% away from the resistance at 0.2459.
There are reasons for both bulls and bears on $ENA, but looking at the upper and lower boundaries, the comfortable range is actually quite limited. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both weak, with RSI values of 37 and 46 respectively.
I only keep one confirmation for an upward move — breaking through 0.2459; and only one condition to negate the upward move — falling below 0.1988. Other fluctuations are considered noise for now.
If you had to pick one validation point first, would you focus on confirming the resistance or the breakdown of support?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Brothers, ZEC has dropped to 1212, down another 4.7% in 24 hours.
$ZEC $1,212
Since the peak at 1698, the pullback has exceeded 28%. But what’s really worth watching today isn’t the price, it’s the on-chain activity and the ETF moving in opposite directions.
Whales are buying, ETFs are selling.
Last week, a whale withdrew 26,070 ZEC from Binance and Kraken in one go, worth $31.93 million. Another big holder was even more aggressive, doubling their position to $66.75 million during the dip, sweeping 54,400 coins off the exchanges.
But the institutions are acting completely differently. The US ZEC spot ETF saw $124 million withdrawn, and Grayscale’s ZCSH shifted from buying pressure to selling pressure. Whales are taking coins off exchanges, ETFs are offloading coins — two groups bidding each other farewell at this level.
The NU7 upgrade is the next card. The testnet is already live, block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, with the mainnet target set for November 5. ZEC in the old Sprout pool will become invalid after the upgrade, so holders of old addresses need to act in advance.
Technically, 1,200 is the short-term lifeline; if it breaks, look for 1,100. Only if it holds can we talk about a rebound.
Discuss in the comments: Whales bottom-fishing or ETFs retreating, which do you trust?👇
#September CPI announcement imminent, Hamarak says further rate hikes are still needed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? Bitcoin 4-hour bearish signal reignites, ADX rises above 20
$BTC current price around 83410. 4-hour EMA20≈83088 pressing down on EMA50≈83423, ADX≈20.5, bearish momentum just returned; range still between 80961–84348. If it can't hold above 83400, look for 83100→82280/81700; only if it stabilizes and recovers above moving averages and ADX cools down can we consider bullish again. Don't lock in direction before Wednesday's inflation data.You really made me laugh. I shorted at the peak, but it hit my stop loss exactly and then dropped all the way down, not missing a single dollar... Then I went long again, and it was just a few dollars off from liquidating me, hilarious 😂 roller coaster 🎢RSR Long Position Strategy | ≤5x Leverage
Core Logic: Accelerated deflation narrative + RFC-1269 expected to burn 30% of supply, Burn Gauge already effective with zero unlocking, daily volume breakout past previous high
📍 Ambush Zones (divided into 3 levels)
① $0.0021- → 40% (current price/breakout retest zone)
② $0.00205- → 35% (intraday support + EMA7 overlap)
③ $0.00190- → 25% (deep pullback/previous platform defense line)
→ Average cost ≈ $0.00218
🛡️ Hard Stop Loss: $0.00178 (daily close below invalidates structure)
Stop loss range about 18%, leverage recommended ≤5x
🎯 Ladder Targets
• TP1 $0.00265 (+22%, previous high concentration zone) reduce 40%
• TP2 $0.00295 (+35%, psychological level) reduce another 35%
• TP3 $0.00340+ (+56%, RFC-1269 approval speculation) let remaining run
⚠️ Key Events/Observations
• RFC-1269 approval to burn 30 billion tokens = main uptrend trigger
• Burn Gauge reinvested quarterly, may front-run next voting
• Daily ATR about 15%, high volatility, control position size well $BTC
• RSI is hot, high risk chasing short-term highs, wait for pullback to buy $RSR $Entire market: 235 down / 35 up, $BTC $-0.7%, $ETH $-1.9%, $SOL $-4.4%——
$RSR rose 29% in 24 hours, currently at 0.0021.
This is not a catch-up rally, it's a breakthrough.
Yesterday, RSR surged 47% riding sector rotation, with a volume of 175 million tokens—200 times the normal average volume. Usually, when such volume appears, the next day is for selling off and crashing the price.
But today, not only did it not crash, it rose another 29%. The latest 4H candle (starting 12:00 CST) already released 10.5 million tokens, 40 times the average volume. This means: those who rushed in yesterday not only didn’t run away today, some even added more.
During the same period, the entire altcoin sector was falling—this shows RSR is following its own independent logic.
Looking at the 4H structure: 0.0020 has become a new support platform. The upper shadow at 0.0023 last night was initially judged as selling pressure, but now looks like accumulation and rotation. $RSR hit a new high against the trend on the weakest day in the whole market; this signal is worth watching.
Do you think RSR can break 0.003 in this wave? You are trading your own perspective.
Early in the morning, BTC dropped a bit over 1 point, ETH plunged 5 points, and the market was all red.
I instinctively wanted to trade along with the market. After some selection, I finally chose $STRK.
Unfortunately, I wasn't very satisfied with its position.
But I thought, trust the feeling, a slightly bad position doesn't matter.
Then I entered with 10x leverage at a relatively poor position.
It turned out my dissatisfaction with the position was justified.
Within minutes, a 4% reverse big green candle almost blew me up.
Watching the losses accumulate, unable to bear the inner pressure, I finally exited at a 30% loss.
I washed my face, calmed down, checked market news, wanting to know why ETH dropped so much.
Later I found out it was affected by a UK court ruling.
Personally, I feel that for this level of impact, such a big drop was really unwarranted.
It was purely the market's pessimism these past two days, emotions were amplified.
Logically, it should be corrected.
So I turned to the market's highest token $CT, entering at 6 points.
It did not disappoint my expectations, rising to 8 points.
At this point, looking at the chart, I felt it was about time for a pullback, so I chose to close the position, thinking to re-enter after the pullback.
But it stubbornly did not fall back.
I thought: doesn't my closing position action basically mean bearish?
I asked myself, would I dare to open a short now?
I didn't dare.
Would I dare to continue going long?
I didn't dare either.
I could only watch helplessly as $CT surged to 20 points $SNDK hit stop loss twice yesterday, and today I covered some long positions. I really didn't expect SanDisk to drop so much overnight. I originally thought it would stop falling at 1520, but it kept dropping below 1500. Recently, AI development has been below expectations, dragging down storage, but I think these are just small fluctuations in a high-growth industry and it will return to normal later. So even though SanDisk fell from 1900 to 1400 this time, I still dare to add positions against the trend. From a short-term perspective, a rebound should come soon. This morning, Changxin Technology dropped 5 points but is now about to turn positive. Ideally, SanDisk should also follow with a rebound tonight. Swing traders should seize the rebound opportunity tonight. Officials call for rate hikes, but the market just doesn't buy it! Tomorrow's CPI release will show who's right
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM sharp, the September CPI will be announced. The most interesting thing now isn't the data itself, but rather—on one side, Fed officials hawkishly say "we still need to raise," while on the other, the market votes with real money, "You dare to raise?"
Cleveland Fed President Mester just dropped a line yesterday: inflation is still hot, no discussion, rate hikes continue. But CME data slapped that in the face: the probability of holding steady in October has shot up to 79.5%.
In other words: officials say "I think we should raise," the market says "I bet you won't." Both sides are arguing fiercely, just waiting for tomorrow's CPI to be the judge.
Institutions are also being sneaky with their forecasts: overall CPI might jump from 3.4% to 3.7% due to rising oil prices, which sounds scary. But core CPI month-on-month might actually drop from 0.3% to 0.2%—basically "scary on the surface, cooling underneath." This kind of data is neither clearly up nor down; how to interpret it depends entirely on investor sentiment.
As for me, I’ve already unloaded my leverage. Betting heavily on direction at this critical moment is like crossing the street blindfolded. If you think the data is mild, it might come out better than expected; if you think a bombshell is coming, it might just meet expectations. Either way, you’re likely to be wrong half the time, so better to sit on the sidelines and watch.
Honestly, every CPI release in recent months has felt like New Year's Eve, with everyone glued to their screens waiting for the announcement. And the result? Prices neither rise much nor fall much; after all the fuss, it’s just volatility. The real money is never made by betting on the data, but by waiting for the dust to settle before making a move.
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM, the big show starts on time with everyone watching. I’ve got my little stool ready, just waiting to see which side this CPI will support—whether it props up Mester or smacks him down hard.
Three takeaways I’ve figured out:
1. Officials can talk tough all they want, but don’t take it at face value. The market’s real-money odds are more reliable than any speech.
2. Don’t bet your net worth before the data is out. An 80% probability sounds safe, but the 20% surprise is what really kills.
3. Being a bit slow to react won’t lose you big money; betting on the wrong direction will. Instead of shaking with nerves, wait for the results before making your move. Short sellers were "reverse liquidated," with BTC and ETH as the main battlegrounds
In the past 24 hours, the liquidation scale has clearly tilted toward the short side. BTC total liquidations reached $52.5 million, with shorts accounting for $42.71 million, over 80%; ETH total liquidations were $53.78 million, with shorts at $42.42 million, nearly 80%. On a shorter timeframe, ETH's 12-hour short liquidations hit $18.63 million, surpassing BTC's $9.67 million, making it the fiercest battleground in this round of "short sweeps." Combined, shorts were wiped out by over $85 million.
XRP's volume is small, with 24-hour liquidations at $2.07 million, shorts at $1.49 million, still biased toward the short side. Although the absolute value is limited, the structure indicates this is not a single-coin anomaly but a concentrated effort to squeeze out short positions in the market.
The problem arises: intensive short liquidations often bring passive buying, driving price pulses upward. But is this kind of rise a true reversal or a liquidity hunt-induced bull trap? If the bulls cannot continue to absorb volume after the liquidation peak, the risk of a short-term pullback remains. In the next few hours, whether BTC and ETH can hold the dense liquidation zones will determine if this round marks the start of a trend or just another trap.