Orbit Post Sitemap
ETC at $8.15, are you still waiting for it to rebound?
From 10.35 down to 7.78, the halving has landed, the upgrade is still far off, and tomorrow’s CPI hangs overhead—Is this the final shakeout, or the slow death of an old chain?
First, look at the surface: it’s dropped, but halving happened, and Olympia’s expectations remain.
Down 9% in the past week, up 6% in the past month, rebounded from 7.2 in mid-September to 10.35, then gave back to 8.15. Market cap 1.3 billion, mid-tier altcoin, not a mainline.
The candlesticks tell you: price stuck in the 8.00-8.36 decision zone, daily RSI 42, 4-hour RSI 38, MACD below zero line, broke below 7-day and 30-day moving averages, selling pressure volume up—all indicators shout one thing: short-term bearish, don’t rush to bottom-fish.
But take another look at the weekly chart.
At the end of September, the “Fifthening” halving completed, block rewards dropped another 20% to 1.6384 ETC. Max supply 210.7 million, circulating 155-159 million.
Supply is contracting, the story is brewing. This is the most divisive point.
First thing: halving has landed, but the market didn’t even blink.
New halving cycle started end of September, block rewards down 20% again.
Sounds like great news, right?
But look at the market—price fell from 10.35 all the way to 7.78, halving didn’t lift the price.
Why?
Because halving is an expectation, already priced in.
The market buys “halving will happen in the future,” not “halving has happened.”
Good news turning bad news is the classic crypto script, haven’t you memorized it yet?
Second thing: Olympia upgrade is the only decent catalyst this year.
Olympia targets late 2026: EIP-1559-like dynamic fees, about 80% of base fees go to on-chain treasury, DAO controls spending.
In plain language:
ETC aims to transform from “old PoW with no code changes” to “PoW Ethereum with sustainable development funding.”
Sounds exciting, right?
But before landing, it’s just expectation, not a driver of current price.
Third thing: technicals are hitting resistance, not support—CPI tomorrow is a looming threat.
Current 8.15 is right on first resistance.
Resistance at 8.30-8.36, must reclaim to confirm bottom.
Support at 8.00 (psychological level) → 7.78-7.94 (Oct 8 low) → 7.50 → 7.06.
Daily chart looks like a pullback in a down channel, no higher lows yet.
Bollinger Bands near lower band, short-term rebound space exists, but rebound ≠ reversal.
Macro?
BTC once dropped below 82,000, spot BTC ETF saw net outflow of 680 million last week, ETH ETF outflows for consecutive days, Korean stocks plunged on AI/chip concerns.
Tomorrow (Oct 14) US CPI is the watershed.
If hot, altcoins get hit first; if cool, repair window opens.
ETC, a low liquidity asset, falls faster than BTC when macro tightens, and rebounds are more fake.
Bull vs bear, you decide:
Bulls:
Halving landed, supply shrinking
Olympia upgrade expected, catalyst in 2026
Fake Core-Geth event in September passed, miners switched back to safe version
Perpetual funding rate slightly negative, open interest falls with price, bulls reducing positions, not bears aggressively opening
Bollinger Bands near lower band, short-term rebound possible
Bears:
Daily bearish alignment, EMA resistance, MACD below zero
Halving good news landed but no price lift, market not buying
Olympia too far away, landing in 2026
No ETF money story, volume driven by contracts and sentiment rotation
Tomorrow’s CPI, macro risk assets under pressure
Breaking 8.00 likely triggers another round of long liquidation
Trading strategy
Short-term long (only on rebounds):
Aggressive: don’t break 8.00-8.05, 1-hour close above 8.20, light position, target 8.36/8.55, stop loss 7.92.
Conservative: wait for daily close above 8.36, then enter on pullback without break, target 8.66, 9.00, stop loss below 8.10.
Oversold rebound: if price drops to 7.78-7.90 with lower shadow and volume contraction, can try once, stop loss 7.65, target first 8.15-8.30. This is bottom-fishing, not a trend trade.
Short-term short:
8.30-8.55 fails to break higher, falls back below 8.15, or volume break below 8.00, short, target 7.80, extend to 7.50.
Stop loss 0.15-0.20 above entry candle high, don’t hold past 8.66.
Mid-term:
Only two cases worth holding:
Olympia testnet/mainnet schedule clear, and price reclaims 9.20;
Post-CPI risk appetite returns, ETC follows ETH recovery.
Before that, it’s a 7.80-9.20 range ticket.
Don’t hold with “value coin” mindset before breaking 10.35.
Invalidation:
Daily close below 7.70 opens lower range, look at 7.50/7.06, all long logic invalid.
Daily close above 8.66 invalidates bearish logic, look to 9.00.
ETC now is like the 2016 fork—
Everyone shouts “Code is Law,” but ten years later, it’s still telling the same story.
Halving landed, upgrade in 2026, no ETF, developers left.
You think you’re bottom-fishing ETC, but you’re actually renewing faith from 2016.
Old chains don’t die, they just slowly wither. But your margin won’t wait for its rebound day.
The day it breaks 8.36—
It’s either the start of a rebound or another pump-and-dump.
$BTC $ETH $ETC This Yi Lihua, do any of you brothers follow him?
Do you think the BTC resistance and support levels he describes in the article are reliable?
Let me comment one by one:
First question: The 400-day moving average of BTC is at 81,000, so it can get support and rebound here.
Comment: What the heck is a 400-day moving average? Twice the 200-day? It's the first time I've heard of a 400-day moving average. To prove his sharp insight, does he have to make up a BTC 400-day moving average?
Second question: The strong resistance level of BTC is at 86,500, so every time it reaches here, it pulls back.
Comment: Does it pull back because there is resistance at 86,500? Isn't it due to recent macro issues like the crazy rise in oil prices, the repeated ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine on oil and gas, and the unstable situation between Yemen and Saudi Arabia? It's just that there was no special positive catalyst to push a one-time rebound above 90,000, and it just happened that BTC encountered resistance at 86,500.
When all these coincidences come together, it is described as a mechanical executable operation method. This kind of thinking is extremely naive.#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
我看这数据，先别慌着喊“机构跑了”。
$BTC 、$ETH 现货ETF同步流出，说明受监管渠道里的配置盘在降温，尤其是ETH连八天撤资，比BTC更像“真减配”。
但我更倾向叫它：宏观避险+获利了结，不是长线机构集体逃。
美债收益率、美元、地缘风险一上来，ETF里的大钱先砍beta，BTC和ETH一起被削很正常。
区别在于：BTC是脉冲式流出，ETH是趋势性流出。所以“机构需求转弱”这句话，对ETH更成立，对BTC算是短期退潮。
接下来就看三天：流出是不是扩散到IBIT/FBTC/ARKB全阵营，还是只集中在个别产品；BTC能不能站回84k；
CPI和美联储表态后资金是否回流。若继续连撤，那就是需求拐点；若止跌回补，就只是十月去杠杆。
$SNDK
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BAT short positions are too many, every time the whale pumps it slowly slides down, pumping a few points at a time can't trigger the short positions, and instead the shorts keep adding to their positions. How long can this coin last relying entirely on the whale's pumping?Unichain has been "sent away," what remains of the $UNI story?
On October 29, Uniswap Labs handed over its own child Unichain to Optimism. This self-owned L2, which was only set to launch in 2025, survived just over a year before being hastily transferred. The announcement was understated, but the strategic contraction is unmistakableUniswap is refocusing on its core business.
For UNI holders, this is not good news.
The daily trading volume of the Uniswap main protocol has always been strong,#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? The leader has something to say
BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw outflows last week, totaling $1.221 billion. BTC net outflow was $679 million, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows. ETH net outflow was $542 million, the largest single-week outflow since January, with nine consecutive trading days of outflows.
Is institutional demand weakening? My judgment is that this is a phase of portfolio adjustment, not a trend of withdrawal. Before the CPI release, funds are hedging, which is expected. Plus, with 30-year US Treasury yields at 5.7% and short-term debt yields high enough, some funds temporarily move into fixed income, which is normal.
But ETH is weaker than BTC. BitMine already holds 6.03 million ETH, close to 5% of total supply, and management says they have basically bought enough. The largest ETH treasury buyer has stopped, so ETH lost key support. Therefore, ETH fell harder than BTC and its rebound is weaker than BTC's.
Today the market is recovering, BTC up 2.09%, ETH up 2.94%. ETF fund flows and short-term prices are diverging; some are selling, some are buying. The market is waiting for CPI to set the direction.
I still hold my BTC long at 82,800+, stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000. ETF outflows are a slow variable and do not affect the short-term rebound rhythm. I will reduce positions at the target, no stubborn holding. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I won't touch ETH for now, waiting for ETF funds to flow back. No chasing highs or panic selling, just set stop losses properly. The most noteworthy data today is that BTC's total network contract open interest sharply dropped by 6.05% within 24 hours, falling to $54.091 billion. Meanwhile, the price rebounded above 83,000, making the signal of position reduction and rebound worth a close look.
1. What changed? This morning, BTC briefly fell below 81,000, with over $770 million in leveraged positions liquidated within 24 hours, of which 88.9% were long positions. The price then made a V-shaped recovery, but the open interest did not rise correspondingly.
2. Why is this important? This rebound accompanied by a decline in open interest indicates that the rally was not driven by new long entries but rather by short covering and passive position closures. BTC funding rates have turned negative, meaning shorts are now paying to hold positions.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards a "technical correction after leverage clearing" rather than a trend reversal. Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, showing institutions are still systematically reducing positions.
Next, watch the previous high at 83,800: a volume-backed hold above this level would validate the rebound; if pressure returns, the nature of this rebound as a position reduction will be confirmed. The direction may be revealed earlier than most expect. $BTC #September CPI announcement imminent, Harker says further rate hikes still needed $BTC Dot plot shows 4.1%, the speaker says more hikes.
▪️ September dot plot median 3.8% → 4.1%, unanimous 12-0 vote to raise rates by 25bp
▪️ SEP pushes return to 2% to 2029, core PCE revised up to 3.4%
▪️ CPI announced 10/14 20:30, August reading CPI 3.4%, core month-on-month 0.3%
▪️ CME shows 78.4% probability of no rate hike at 10/27–28 meeting
▪️ Concurrent 10Y at 5.36%, 30Y at 5.73%, highest since 2002
The divergence is not about how tough the speaker sounds, but that the "dot plot median" and the "speaker's tone" are not the same thing.
The dot plot is the combined result of 19 voters, reflecting the committee's view on year-end rates; the speech is an individual statement, which can be interpreted as more hawkish. What is truly priced in is the former—CME's 78.4% no hike indicates the market treats the rate meeting as an uncertain variable. CPI is the only number not yet factored into this pricing.
Direction suggests wait-and-see — if CPI is below expectations, rate hike bets will fade; if above expectations, the long end will move up another notch. Costs dropped by 82%, but I’m actually panicking
Researchers have reduced the estimated computational cost of dedicated quantum-secure Bitcoin transactions by 82%, down to $59.
The potential risk exposure is huge.
According to a study by Glassnode, about 6.04 million Bitcoins (30.2% of the then-issued Bitcoin supply) have public keys visible on-chain.
In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum attacker could derive private keys from the exposed public keys and take control of the associated cryptocurrencies.
My thought is: what used to seem impossible is now being seriously pursued.
What’s more troublesome is something else.
Every time you transfer your coins, it’s like hanging your house keys online.
About one-third of all Bitcoins worldwide are already in this state.
And the new solution only protects those that have never been exposed.
So the dividing line isn’t about cost, but whether you acted early enough.
The good news is, changing to a new address can be done today, almost for free.
The bad news is, the attack has no deadline, but the risk is always present.
Don’t mistake the absence of incidents for safety; quantum security doesn’t mean it’s impenetrable.
It means it hasn’t been broken yet.
Those who act early can sleep well.
$59, one step closer than what I wrote before.BTC staged a classic "short squeeze counterattack" in the past hour. It briefly fell below $81,000 in the morning, causing nearly 170,000 liquidations, but then the price strongly rebounded to around $83,800.
The core driving force behind this rebound was short covering, not new capital inflows. In the past 4 hours of liquidations, short positions accounted for over 90%. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of as much as $681 million in a single week, with institutions reducing positions during the rebound.
In the short term, watch the resistance at the previous high of $83,800. If it fails to break out with volume, it will likely retest support at $83,000. The real decisive factor will be tomorrow night's CPI data—if inflation exceeds expectations, this rebound may be just a flash in the pan. $BTC $BTC More short-term liquidations of short positions occurred in the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, indicating that this rapid rebound primarily swept out the shorts. Looking at the 24-hour timeframe, long position liquidations reached 110 million, significantly higher than the 53.119 million in short position liquidations.
In simple terms: short-term rallies harvested shorts, but over the full-day larger cycle, longs are still being heavily liquidated. The market oscillates back and forth, washing out both longs and shorts in turn. This kind of market easily triggers stop losses on both sides, so positions must be kept light. #September CPI announcement imminent, Hamaak says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Semiconductor sector sees concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6% 【Under negative ETH funding rate, who is placing the 2523 buy order to support the bottom?】
Just after the US stock market opened, an abnormal signal appeared in the ETH order book.
What has changed with ETH? The funding rate is negative (-0.00064%), shorts are paying to hold positions, but buy orders occupy 58% of the order book, with a large 250 ETH order placed at 2523.83.
Why is this worth attention? Over the past 10 days, ETH spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, indicating institutional withdrawal; however, on the futures order book, someone is absorbing at the lower level. These two forces are moving in opposite directions.
Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards "passive defense under crowded shorts" rather than active bullishness. A negative funding rate means short positions are concentrated, and if the price does not fall, there is a possibility of a short squeeze.
Next, watch two signals: whether 2520 (MA20) can hold, and whether ETF outflows converge. If it doesn't hold, the support order may just be a buffer; if it holds, the story is just beginning. $ETH Write an analysis post about the field I am most skilled in.
I have spent 1000 days and nights studying various macro data and geopolitics of different countries.
First, regarding the screenshot, tomorrow is the release day of the 5-star data CPI, which will be published at 8:30 PM.
The most noteworthy points are the annual rate and the Fed's favorite core CPI monthly rate month-over-month.
Currently, the expected data for the annual rate is not optimistic, while the core monthly rate month-over-month is still acceptable; last month was 0.3%, and now the expectation is 0.2%.
If one is good and the other is bad, they can offset each other. If both are bad, then we need to focus on analyzing the current positions and status of BTC and ETH in the market.
First: If both data points are good,
BTC and ETH will strongly break through their respective resistance levels at 83850 and 2566, these two key positions.
Second: If one is good and the other is bad, whether the annual rate or the monthly rate is good, overall, as long as ETH is around 2535 at the time of release with one good and one bad data point, it will most likely move sideways and decline. Subsequently, it will continue to oscillate within a range.
Third: If both data points are bad,
If at the time of release BTC is above 83000, a sharp drop is inevitable. Altcoins will suffer even more.
If BTC and ETH tonight, for unknown reasons, fall below 81000 and 2430 respectively, then with bad data, the rise or fall tomorrow is uncertain.
Only by breaking below their respective lows to seek a bottom, or by the negative news being fully priced in, can there be an open-ended positive outcome.8万抄底还是8.6万追涨？
CPI今晚给答案
CPI数据是今晚币圈方向选择的“扳机”。核心环比0.2%则BTC有望站稳8.3万美元上方并冲击8.6万；若0.3%或更高，则大概率回踩8万美元甚至更低。
当前盘面已提前“用脚投票”。资金面发出明确警示：比特币现货ETF上周净流出高达6.81亿美元，终结连续三周流入；以太坊ETF同样净流出5.42亿美元，机构正在宏观不确定性前主动降风险。
关键矛盾在于市场定价与美联储预期的错位。预测市场显示BTC 10月内跌破8万美元的概率高达67%，这意味着币圈当前价格并未充分定价“核心CPI超预期”的情景。
操作建议：数据公布前降低杠杆、保持观望。若核心环比0.2%，可轻仓跟进BTC短线反弹，目标8.5-8.6万；若核心0.3%+，则等待BTC回踩7.7-7.8万链上密集支撑区再考虑分批接回，而非在8.1万附近盲目抄底。以太坊需额外关注ETF资金流向及基金会关联钱包的转账动向。
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Originally was about to sleep, but glanced at the K-line, BTC 15-minute RSI surged to 96.8, too hot for the short term, ETH and SOL also bounced accordingly, but whether they can hold above the resistance level is the real focus.
$BTC rebounded from 80351 to 83665, 15-minute RSI surged to 96.8, clearly overbought, but contract open interest hasn't expanded much, indicating this rally looks more like short covering and bottom-fishing driving it; spot market hasn't kept up at all. The 84000 level above is a resistance; if it can't hold, it's a fake rebound, chasing highs is very risky.
$ETH rose from 2405 to 2520, but the 4-hour MACD is still below zero line. The lower edge of the 2550 to 2578 range has many trapped positions; it's not easy to break through directly. RSI is also overbought. Chasing longs here has poor cost-effectiveness.
$SOL rebounded from 101.58 to 108.08, 15-minute RSI surged to 74.9, 4-hour resistance is near 110. Like BTC and ETH, no new money is entering; this rebound lacks sustainability.
I believe tonight's V-shaped rebound is not a reversal, more like an escape opportunity for those trapped during the day.
Follow-up plan: Only consider light long positions if BTC holds above 84000, ETH above 2550, SOL above 110; otherwise wait for pullbacks. Watch BTC at 82000, ETH at 2450, SOL at 103-105, and act after volume contracts and stabilizes.
#September CPI announcement imminent, Harker says further rate hikes are still needed Countdown 24 hours: 820 million evaporated overnight
At midnight, $BTC plunged to 80,927, $ETH touched 2,405, with 814 million contracts evaporated in 24 hours, 84.6% of which were long positions—no black swan, just leverage paying debts.
The rebound gap is very honest: BTC is only 0.3% away from the opening price, ETH hasn't bounced back to 2,560, $SOL is still 3% short of 112. This is not a return of risk appetite, but funds hiding in Bitcoin as a safe haven. Market dominance is 59.3%, Bitcoin is absorbing liquidity.
Macro conditions remain tight: Harker said inflation has spread to AI infrastructure and electricity, with nearly a 70% chance of a rate hike in December, and the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.24%.
On October 14 at 20:30, CPI will be released; the decisive factor is the core month-on-month—≤0.2% means a breather, 0.3% reignites debate, ≥0.4% triggers rate hike repricing. Risks are asymmetric; a hotter reading is much more troublesome than a cooler one.
Watch three numbers: BTC 84,360, ETH 2,580, SOL 113. Only when all three move together is it diffusion; if Bitcoin moves alone, it’s risk aversion.
#September CPI release imminent, Harker says further rate hikes needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Semiconductor sector sees concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6% Lost $11.27 million in seven days, this crash really put big brother Maji on the hit list again.
First, two rounds of cutting positions and taking losses, a real loss of $1.01 million + $12,000, left with only a 25x long position of 7,150 ETH, with the price just $26 above the liquidation line;
Then just after a slight rebound at dawn, he turned around and added positions again, now holding 9,825 ETH, with an unrealized loss of $845,000, and cumulative funding fees burned $1.34 million.
On October 5th, the account still had an unrealized profit of $5.46 million, but in just seven days it dropped to $562,000, a net value drawdown of nearly 90%. This is no longer a roller coaster, it's free fall.
Many people use him as a contrarian indicator to mock, but I think this is the harshest truth of high-leverage trading: unrealized profits are always just paper numbers, but liquidation is a real evaporation of principal.
He was right to bet on ETH long-term going up, but 25x leverage simply can't withstand any volatility. Even if the big direction is right, there's a high chance of dying halfway. Sideways movement is like a dull knife cutting flesh, funding fees are drained daily, and if the trend doesn't come, the position is gone first.
Leverage is something where winning a hundred times is not enough to cover losing once. Do you think he can hold on this time, or is it another liquidation to zero?
$BTC $ETH 100倍杠杆赚了175%，到手0.08U
$ETH 从2487拉到2530上方，涨了不到两个点。
有人拿6.91U本金，100倍全仓做多。
这个数字是什么：
100倍意味着价格反向动1%，本金就没了。
6.91U的1%是0.07U。
所以这单能活着，靠的是方向刚好对。
他实际做了什么：
开仓价2487，浮盈175%，倒推出来只赚0.08U。
3倍做空另一个币，浮盈65%，到手0.1U。
两笔加起来，不到两毛钱。
杠杆放大的是百分比，不是钱。
本金小到一定程度，翻倍也只是几分钱的事。
真正被放大的是爆仓的概率。
等一笔能亏掉全部本金的仓位出现，再谈收益。
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $ETH $ETH On the ETH side, 1-hour and 4-hour intervals see more short liquidations, with short-term rebounds first clearing out the shorts. But extending to 12h and 24h, the volume of long liquidations significantly surpasses shorts; in 24 hours, longs liquidated 130 million, while shorts only 39.378 million.
Simply put: short-term rallies harvest shorts, but over the full day in larger timeframes, longs are heavily liquidated. The market pulls back and forth, longs and shorts are alternately shaken out, making it easy for both sides to hit stop losses. Operations must be cautious.
⚠️Risk warning: Liquidation data only reflects already occurred clearings and cannot be used to predict future market trends LayerZero spent $10 million buying its own tokens, yet ZRO still dropped 14%, with the unlocking acting like a blade pressing down on everyone.
Market overview first: OKEx spot price currently at 2.0272, down 2.1% in 24h, after reaching a high of 2.3673 then falling back to 2.03, a 14% pullback from the peak; trading volume 5.9 million USDT, market cap 950 million, volume shrinking with a slow decline.
Interesting event timeline: Yesterday LayerZero Labs bought $10 million worth of ZRO on the open market, price surged to 2.48 that day, making people think the project team was stepping in to push it up, but today it was knocked back to reality— even insiders buying tokens couldn’t stop the correction.
The reason is clear: On October 20, 23.63 million ZRO tokens worth about $53.73 million will unlock, split evenly between core contributors and the ecosystem. As the countdown enters the unlocking window, short-term funds dare not take the lead; technical indicators also align: RSI at 40.5, MACD bearish crossover below zero line, price pressed below supertrend and all short- and mid-term moving averages, no one dares to go long proactively.
But don’t lose sight of the long-term logic: Since April, Stargate’s revenue has been 100% used to buy back ZRO, already purchasing 2.538 million tokens. The project team investing real money to vote is a long-term positive signal, it’s just that the unlocking window causes short-term pressure.
Watch the support at 1.9984, if broken look down to 1.97; resistance at 2.1384. The battle before unlocking lands is about who has patience. DYOR, not investment advice.
#ZRO #LayerZero #CrossChainToday, South Korea's KOSPI plunged sharply, once falling below the 6000 mark, dropping over 6% and triggering a circuit breaker. Weighted stocks were clearly under pressure, with Samsung Electronics down more than 5% and SK Hynix plummeting over 7%.
This round of sell-off was driven by multiple factors resonating together: continuous large-scale foreign capital outflows, with net sales exceeding 1 trillion KRW in the morning session, and the outflow trend has persisted for several days; combined with breakthroughs in ChangXin Memory's DDR5 new technology, the market worries about the impact on Samsung and Hynix's storage pricing advantage. Additionally, the weakness in the US stock AI sector and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials tightened liquidity expectations, further dragging down global tech risk assets.
The index dipped to around 5900, close to previous key support. Many local Korean brokerage views believe that after the sharp drop, Samsung and Hynix valuations are temporarily oversold and require technical repair.
But it should be noted that foreign capital selling pressure has not yet confirmed an end, and whether following the trend to short or directly bottom-fishing, the risks remain high.
Short-term judgment: A rebound repair wave is highly likely, but it is characterized as a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #Semiconductor sector concentrated sell-off, South Korea KOSPI down over 6% $SNDK previously stated that the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. ChangXin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "China's chip rise," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."$BTC $ETH $SOL
Multiple pre-market news in the US stock market collectively signal that institutions are beginning to reduce equity risk and shift towards bond hedging, which will directly impact the crypto market.
In the crypto space, the correlation between BTC and Nasdaq has already rebounded. The risk appetite in the US stock market will directly affect the crypto market. Institutions reducing US stock holdings and increasing US bond holdings means a contraction of risk capital, which will continue to suppress BTC and ETH. Yesterday, spot ETFs continued to see outflows, resonating with the risk-off sentiment in the US stock market.
If the US stock market opens weaker, the crypto market will simultaneously come under pressure; if the US stock market stabilizes and oscillates, the crypto space will maintain range-bound trading. Currently, with overall capital seeking safety, altcoins are facing greater volatility pressure.
BlackRock's actions are the most representative: it downgraded US stocks to neutral while increasing US bond allocations, ending a six-year underweight stance on US bonds. This reflects the current judgment of leading institutions that the cost-performance ratio of the stock market has declined, capital prefers bonds for hedging, and the willingness to allocate to risk assets is shrinking.
Bank earnings reports show divergence: JPMorgan's revenue missed expectations, with FICC business income below estimates; Goldman Sachs' equity trading business exceeded expectations, but fixed income business was weak; Citigroup slightly met targets. Big banks' earnings falling short of expectations will heighten market concerns about the economy.
In the storage chip sector, Morgan Stanley warns that the semiconductor cycle is nearing its peak, with high profitability posing a valuation trap, and expectations for tech stocks are beginning to ease.# Standard Chartered Bank Provides Custody Services for Ripple's RLUSD
$XRP Banks custody stablecoins, collateral doesn't need to move.
▪️ Standard Chartered offers institutional custody for RLUSD through its Dubai International Financial Centre branch, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority
▪️ Supports RLUSD running on its native XRP Ledger
▪️ Plans to extend the "collateral mirroring" model to LMAX, allowing clients to use RLUSD as trading collateral
▪️ In the mirroring model, tokens remain in bank custody, and LMAX can confirm position value without client transfers
▪️ Standard Chartered says this model can reduce transfer risk and counterparty exposure; functionality still requires documentation, testing, and regulatory approval
The disagreement isn't whether banks are willing to custody stablecoins, but which step is saved by the design of "collateral doesn't leave custody."
Previously, to use stablecoins as collateral, the coins had to be transferred to the counterparty, and the transfer process itself was an exposure. The mirroring model allows the bank to issue confirmation, and the counterparty recognizes the value, so the coins don't move, reducing risk exposure. Whether this process can be implemented depends on whether banks are willing to take responsibility for a "confirmation"—Standard Chartered has listed it as a pending approval item, indicating it is also waiting for conditions to be met.
The direction is for observers — the collateral function being approved and implemented marks a new stage; stopping at custody just adds another custodian.#Strategy's buying slowdown, is the corporate treasury strategy changing?
Strategy's approach has shifted a bit; it used to buy coins blindly, but now it's starting to be more cautious.
Let's look at the data. From October 5th to 11th, Strategy only bought 250 BTC, spending less than $20 million. But during the same period, it spent $192 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares. Do the math: the buyback amount is 9 times the amount spent on buying coins. The guy who used to "raise funds just to buy coins" is now using most of the money to fix the capital structure.
Looking at the bigger picture, SoSoValue reports that the net weekly BTC purchases by listed companies dropped by 90.6% week-over-week. This isn't just about Strategy; the entire corporate treasury buying pace is collectively slowing down. On the other hand, BitMine still holds 6.03 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total supply, with 84% staked and gradually locked up.
What impact does this have?
First, short-term buying pressure is definitely reduced.
Second, just because treasury players aren't buying doesn't mean they're selling.
My view is simple.
Don't panic just because buying is slowing down. Strategy is now spending 9 times more on repurchasing preferred shares, which is building a firewall for itself—stabilizing the capital structure first, then planning for future coin purchases. This is not a signal that the market is about to drop; it's treasury players shifting from "charging ahead" to "holding steady."
What do you think? $BTC $SOL is bearish; in the past 24 hours, long positions were liquidated for $25.11 million, while short positions only saw $8.48 million liquidated. The number of long trades is about half that of shorts, but the amount is much larger, indicating that large long positions were liquidated, whereas shorts are mostly small trades. The funding rate has dropped for three consecutive periods to 0.0013%. The sign of the funding rate doesn't indicate direction, but it has been narrowing, showing fewer people are paying to go long. Leveraged longs are being squeezed out, and no new money is coming in to take their place. The chart's highs are still rising, so the uptrend structure hasn't broken. However, these highs were pushed up by leveraged longs, who have just been cleared once; the 109.82 level was tested but not held. Moving averages show a bearish alignment and have broken support, matching the liquidation direction, which I trust more. $920 million in open interest remains on the books; longs haven't fully cleared yet, and the next test will be at 101.56. Conditions to turn bullish: price must reclaim above 109.82 with open interest increasing simultaneously. If both occur, this bearish view is invalidated. Interactive Brokers has also launched ETH staking, using ZeroHash technology. But the announcement doesn't provide a single yield figure, nor does it mention the lock-up period or whether you can withdraw at any time.
On-chain interest is originally something you can get in full just by opening a wallet. When integrated into a brokerage account, there's an extra layer of channel and an extra layer of fees; what they are really selling is convenience and compliance.
$BTC
$ETH $ADA Market Overview ADA has long been in a fluctuating downward channel, with multiple rebounds being weak recoveries. The rebound heights are getting lower and lower, making it difficult to sustain a continuous trend. When the overall market warms up, ADA's gains lag behind public chain competitors like Ethereum and SOL; once the market pulls back, ADA often falls among the top in losses, making it a typical weak asset that follows declines but not rises. Recently, rumors have circulated that some trading platforms plan to delist ADA spot trading pairs, further suppressing market confidence and causing on-exchange funds to exit for risk avoidance. Core Reasons for the Decline 1. Continuous ecosystem contraction, lacking real incremental growth Cardano initially promoted itself as an academic public chain with a peer-reviewed scientific narrative, but its implementation progress has been slow for a long time. On-chain TVL has shrunk significantly, DeFi activity is sluggish; once leading NFT marketplaces and on-chain data tools have successively shut down, daily active addresses and on-chain transactions continue to decline. The ecosystem lacks blockbuster applications, user loss is obvious, and there is no sustained capital or new user inflow to support the token price. The grand narrative is gradually being disproven by the market. 2. Competition in the sector squeezes space, narrative no longer scarce The smart contract public chain sector is highly competitive. SOL, ETH, and Avalanche continuously capture funds, while new public chains and modular chains keep diverting attention. ADA's "academic public chain" story is no longer fresh. Others are rapidly iterating their ecosystems, while ADA's update pace is slow. Market funds prefer chains with real users and high trading activity, leading to continuous outflow of capital from ADA. 3,$BTC The evening analysis from Ayue has been partially realized with a slight gain, successfully moving up over 800 points, and Ethereum has also gained nearly 40 points! Friends who kept up with the pace, please pay attention and check, and remember to reduce positions in batches. $ETH May it continue to follow the trend steadily, advancing step by step, creating new achievements, and living up to every bit of trust and persistence.
$ZEC
#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed
Don't rush to go all-in on the eve of the CPI; crude oil and US Treasuries have already given the answer
The September CPI is coming tomorrow night, and the market expects the numbers to look bad this time. Core CPI month-on-month is expected to be between 0.2% and 0.24%, but the overall CPI year-on-year may jump directly from 3.4% to between 3.6% and 3.7%.
In short, oil prices have pushed the overall number up, but core inflation is actually cooling down. The average gasoline price across the US is $4.33, nearly $1 more expensive than the same period last year. But core components like rent, used cars, and insurance are actually stable, and the one-time factor of Verizon's price increase has also passed.
Crude oil is even more direct. Brent is fluctuating around 104-106, WTI around 91-93. Oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are still being attacked, diesel supply is very tight, and US diesel is 70% more expensive than before the conflict. But Trump has said he won't attack Iran before the midterm elections, and Russian diesel exports have also started to ease, so oil prices have both ceilings and floors.
US Treasuries are even more interesting. The 10-year yield just surged to a more than 20-year high of 5.36%, but on Tuesday it reversed and fell back to around 5.19%. The reason is simple: as Asian stock markets fell, safe-haven funds flowed back into US Treasuries. But this doesn't mean the inflation problem is solved; it's purely a risk-hedging demand caused by the stock market drop.
My view: short-term is biased towards volatility, no rush to expect a one-sided move. If core CPI meets expectations, US Treasury yields may continue to fall in the short term, which is a breather opportunity for growth stocks The underlying stock plummeted, but the contract surged — I feel uneasy about the money I made
Tonight’s most surreal scene: the US stock storage sector collapsed. Changxin Storage’s IPO soared 466% on its first day, scaring global storage stocks — SK Hynix dropped 10%, Micron fell 5%, and SanDisk’s underlying stock opened down nearly 5% again.
But OKX’s SNDK contract jumped from 1,403 straight up to 1,465, wildly rallying against the underlying stock, now even more expensive than the stock itself. I entered at 1,437, with an unrealized profit of +5.5U.
This surge isn’t due to bulls being strong, but because shorts are too crowded: panic selling during the day pushed the contract cheaper than the stock, then when the US market opened with bad news, shorts rushed to cover, pushing the contract price above the stock price.
So my choice: pocket the profits first. The underlying stock is falling, Changxin’s competition is real, and there’s a big earnings test on 10/29 — the money made from this mismatch is just temporarily parked by the market, don’t treat it as skill.
Have you ever traded contracts linked to stock-crypto movements? Let’s discuss in the comments.
Risk reminder: personal live trading record, not investment advice, leverage risk is extremely high, please do not copy trades.博彩公司打广告被查，这事跟币圈有啥关系？
刚看到FTC盯上FanDuel和DraftKings，说是广告可能误导人。
但你注意一个细节：Kalshi和Polymarket不在名单里。
这就值得琢磨了。
同样是押注，传统博彩被翻旧账，预测市场却被放过了。
说白了，监管现在把这两样东西当不同物种看。
博彩是博彩，预测市场更像金融工具。
这对Polymarket这类平台是情绪加分，至少短期没被盯上。
但也别高兴太早，FTC这次是早期审查，后面会不会扩围谁也说不准。
我现在更想看的是，这波审查会不会变成预测市场的一次免费广告。
#代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？
#$ZEC 近十几年大陆对比特币（BTC）的态度，主线是：从“定性为虚拟商品、提醒风险、隔离金融体系”，逐步走到“全面禁止境内虚拟货币相关业务+清退挖矿+持续打击炒作/洗钱/非法金融活动”。不是突然一刀切，而是逐层收紧。 一、2013：承认是“虚拟商品”，但否认货币属性 - 央行等五部委《关于防范比特币风险的通知》：比特币不是货币，是“特定虚拟商品”，不能当货币流通。 - 金融机构、支付机构不得做比特币兑换、清算、托管、定价、保险等业务。 - 普通人在自担风险前提下可以买卖——属于“商品交易”，不是合法投资品，也不是货币。 - 核心逻辑：防洗钱、保人民币法定地位、把风险关在金融系统外面。 二、2017：从“比特币”扩到“虚拟货币/ICO”，清交易平台 - 央行等七部门《关于防范代币发行融资风险的公告》：ICO 被定性为非法公开融资。 - 境内代币发行融资、虚拟货币交易平台被集中清理，火币/OK 等把境内业务往海外迁。 - 态度变化：不再只是“比特币炒作有风险”，而是把代币融资、平台撮合、募资行为当成金融乱象打。 - 这时候个人炒币还没被说成犯罪，但平台、发币、募资已经不准做。 三、2021：彻底收Glassnode: BTC has twice found support at the ETF cost basis, with key support below at $77,500
According to on-chain institutional data from Glassnode, BTC has twice stabilized and rebounded at the ETF cost basis level, which has turned from previous resistance into support. If this defense line is breached, the next strong support is expected at the true market average of $77,500.
Opinion: The ETF cost line is the breakeven point for institutional holdings. The fact that support has held twice indicates strong buying pressure in this area. However, support is not an iron bottom; macro interest rate hike expectations and ETF capital outflows could break through this range. Holding near $81,500 is necessary for a rebound to have room; if broken, the price will directly target $77,500.
Contract trading strategy: Use the support level to play long positions with stop loss set below $77,500. If volume-driven break below $77,500 occurs, do not bottom-fish; follow the bearish trend. Also, continuously monitor daily ETF capital flows, as sustained outflows will weaken on-chain support effectiveness.
Do you think the ETF cost support will hold this time, or will it test $77,500?The biggest buyer of HYPE is not institutions: $1.26 billion, it’s buying itself
Who is the biggest buyer of HYPE? Not institutions, not ETFs, it’s itself. Data from October 10: Hyperliquid’s cumulative protocol revenue has exceeded $1.4 billion, of which over $1.26 billion has been used to repurchase HYPE. This number alone might not mean much, so here’s a reference point — the total net asset value of all $HYPE spot ETFs combined is about $452 million.
In other words, the money the platform has spent on buybacks is nearly three times the total holdings of all ETFs combined. To put it plainly: whether those institutions outside buy or not isn’t that important; the real main buyer is the platform’s own daily revenue. Other projects rely on calling people in to support the market, but this one uses real money to buy in itself.
I used to focus on who was flowing in and out, but now I don’t watch that anymore — that’s just small money coming and going. Just keep an eye on the buyer who consistently scoops up shares every week without fail.Can a trading newbie who knows nothing achieve stable profits from the market? I will show you with 100 live trades.
No need to chew on obscure theories, no need to study complicated indicators every day.
You just need to build a simple, suitable set of trading rules for yourself: when to enter, how much to take profit, how much loss requires exit, and order position size. The rules don’t need to be complicated, just understandable and executable. (Trading strategy at the end of the article)
Today is the fifth trade of the SPCX opening strategy.
The market gave the short position a 2:1 risk-reward opportunity, and the short trade also successfully took profit. As for whether the market will continue to fall afterward or if there will be a big missed opportunity later, I don’t care; I only take the profits within my own trading strategy!
I will use several common market trading strategies to execute 100 live trades, no mysticism, no hype about huge profits, no hindsight bias. No need to chew on complex theories, no market direction prediction, just stick to fixed rules: entry conditions, take profit, stop loss, and position size all predetermined. Every trade is fully recorded, every profit and loss is shown truthfully. No reliance on one-time big wins, only looking at whether the strategy can produce positive results over the long term. As long as it can generate stable profits, anyone can replicate it.
Detailed strategy:
Only trade within the first four hours of the US stock market open, determine high and low points based on 15-minute candlesticks before and after the open, enter when price breaks out, go long on a breakout above the high, short on a breakout below the low. Stop loss is placed at the breakout candlestick’s high or low; if the stop loss is too tight, place it at the previous candlestick’s high or low. Risk-reward ratio 1:1 to 2:1.
SPCX is highly popular, with sufficient liquidity during opening hours and large volatility, making it a good candidate for breakout trades.
The market always has uncertainty; no strategy can guarantee profits forever. Even the best trading systems will encounter losing trades. What makes the difference is whether ordinary people can control their impulses and consistently follow their own rules.
$BTC $SPCX $ETH #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hammock says further rate hikes are still needed 一句话结论：禁止加密货币的国家，大多没“亡国”，但普遍没把加密货币禁掉；结果是“地上市场消失、地下/P2P/稳定币市场长出来”，监管盲区变大，后来不少国家又从禁令转向持牌监管。 一、典型结局分四类 1. 中国：金融系统切干净，但需求转到地下/境外 - 2021 年清退交易所、禁交易、清退挖矿。 - 达成目标：银行体系、居民储蓄、电网资源不再直接绑定高波动加密投机。 - 代价：交易转到境外平台、USDT/稳定币 P2P、香港/离岸渠道；散户维权难，诈骗和跨境洗钱更难追。 - 产业端：币安、OKX 等中国背景团队出海，本土错过 CEX/稳定币原生赛道，但换来了数字人民币和香港合规试验田。 - 结论：国家金融安全收益明显，个人投资者保护变弱，产业外溢。 2. 尼日利亚：禁令失败，5 年后回头搞牌照 - 2021 年央行禁止银行为加密交易所服务。 - 结果：奈拉贬值 + 通胀，民众更想要 USDT；市场从交易所转向 P2P、场外、Telegram 交易。 - IMF 后来明确说：单靠禁令不行，会变成“数字美元化”+监管黑洞。 - 2026 年前后转向虚拟资产监管框架、监管沙盒。 - 结论：禁令Thanks to the market for giving me a V-shaped recovery, otherwise I would have been eating dirt today. Let's talk about my positions in BTC, ETH, SOL, and OKB:
Today, the four brothers I hold all took a hit, but who is the main decliner, who is affected by sentiment, can still be seen from the on-chain capital flows:
1. $BTC is the most resilient, with the cleanest on-chain funds. Although ETFs were redeemed for $450 million, whales took advantage of the plunge to buy 15,000 coins, so BTC's mid-term trend will be very strong.
Also, 81,000 is a strong support level at BTC's 400-day moving average, and every pullback quickly rebounds. From a long-term perspective, BTC is also in a consolidating upward trend.
2. $ETH is the weakest, with ETFs seeing net outflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling $640 million. The capital side is too weak to hold.
Moreover, the selling pressure suspicion of 4,393 ETH transferred from the EF wallet to Kraken hasn't dissipated; 2,200 is a critical hard support level below.
3. SOL fell the hardest, rooted in a $120 million short position on Hyperliquid. ETFs only saw outflows of over $3 million, so the impact is minor. This token is being suppressed by derivatives sentiment, not by spot money running away.
4. $OKB followed the decline, but its fundamentals are very good: X Layer acquired xStocks, plans to seek SEC exemption to list 63 US stock tokens, plus deflationary burns, so the mid-term market cap can hold.
This kind of follow-the-fall decline has the potential to break out into an independent rally anytime, so holders with chips should hold tight!$CORE The circulating supply you observed decreased by 81 million tokens. Based on public information, this is very likely due to the excess tokens burned during the hard fork in early September, which have now been updated and included in the data platform's statistics, rather than a new burn operation by the project team in October. 🔍 Why did the circulating supply decrease by 81 million? Your screenshot shows the circulating supply dropping from about 1.5 billion to 1.479 billion, a decrease of approximately 81 million tokens. This is directly related to the previous v1.0.26 hard fork event: · September 3 hard fork: Core DAO permanently burned over 150 million excess CORE tokens at the protocol level. · Data update lag: The hard fork occurred in early September, but data platforms (such as OKX) had delayed updates to circulating supply statistics. The 1.5 billion you saw earlier was likely pre-burn outdated data; the current 1.479 billion reflects the latest statistics after deducting the burned tokens. · Not a new burn: The "circulation rate of 70.45%" and the 81 million change you mentioned reflect the burn that occurred in September being re-accounted for, not a new action by the project team in October. 🧐 Did the project team perform new burns in October? No. Since the October 1 announcement about "gradually handing over block production roles to independent validators," there have been no new updates on the official Twitter. The circulating supply changes you see are statistical updates of historical events, not new burn announcements. 🤔 Why has the project team been "silent"? The October 1 statement essentially is a#BlackRock shifts to overweight short-term bonds, downgrades US stock rating
$BLK underweighted US bonds for six years, now it has reversed.
▪️ Short-term US bonds rating upgraded to overweight, long-term US bonds raised from underweight to neutral
▪️ When first underweighted in October 2020, the 10-year yield was about 0.9%; now it is above 5.2%
▪️ US stock rating downgraded from overweight to neutral, agency MBS also lowered to neutral
▪️ The report believes the market's bet on Fed rate hikes is already too high
▪️ Interest rate swaps show traders expect at least three 25bp hikes in the next 12 months
The divergence is not about whether BlackRock is bullish on US stocks, but that it is doing two things simultaneously: locking in yields and avoiding volatility.
In the same report, the short end is favored because yields have reached a "lock-in" level, while the reason for downgrading US stocks is the "potential volatility brought by AI development." It clearly states it does not mean bearish on AI, just managing near-term risk — but this sentence itself reveals the divergence: AI capital expenditure is increasing, financing costs are high, and whether companies can generate returns above capital costs is becoming a screening criterion.
The direction is to wait and see — if rate hike expectations cool down, short bonds benefit; if expectations strengthen again, this allocation will need to be reassessed. Something happened in the Strait of Hormuz, so why is $BTC also suffering?
Originally, I thought that when a geopolitical conflict breaks out, Bitcoin could at least benefit a bit from its "digital gold" status. But this time, the intense attacks in the Strait of Hormuz actually slapped it down.
To be honest: this round of crisis is bearish for the crypto market, not bullish.
The logic is actually simple——
When the strait is hit, oil prices rise. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations return. When inflation returns, the Federal Reserve won't dare to cut interest rates easily. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, assets like Bitcoin that generate no interest naturally get sold off first.
A few data points illustrate the issue:
During the days of escalating attacks, Bitcoin once fell below $81,000, dropping nearly 4% in a week. Ethereum and other major coins fell even harder.
More dramatically, nearly $970 million was liquidated within 24 hours, of which $644 million were long positions. Leveraged funds fled faster than anyone else.
The most ironic thing is that during the most tense moments, gold and Bitcoin both fell together. The term "digital gold" temporarily doesn't hold up in the face of real inflation-driven geopolitical shocks.
So what should we watch next?
Don't just focus on the news headlines; focus on these two more practical things:
First, whether Brent crude oil prices can fall back below $100;
Second, the Federal Reserve's stance, whether it will be forced to continue tightening because of oil prices.
Once oil prices ease, the macro pressure on Bitcoin will lighten considerably.
#September CPI is about to be released, and Harmak says further rate hikes are still needed $ETH funding rate just turned negative. The total open interest across the network has dropped from daytime levels, down over 4% in the last 24 hours. On the 15-minute chart, a bullish engulfing candle formed with significantly increased volume. Price rebounded upward but open interest continues to shrink; the total volume did not expand alongside the bulls' push.
The rebound accompanied by declining open interest indicates that shorts closing positions mainly pushed the price up. Sell orders driving price down are decreasing, and there is a lack of new short positions opening to apply downward pressure. Negative funding rate with shrinking open interest shows that although short sentiment is strong, actual selling pressure on the market has eased and the price is not continuing to be hammered down.
Looking at the larger timeframe, the current price is right at the 4-hour support near 2520. The daily EMA lines are smoothly expanding upward from bottom to top, maintaining an overall bullish trend. During today's dip, the price slowed its decline after hitting the 4-hour support. This candle closed without breaking the support level, and buy orders at the bottom absorbed this pullback.
For the outlook, I lean bullish. The large-scale 4-hour support below is holding well, and the short selling pressure has mostly been exhausted. I expect a recovery wave to the upside.
$BTC $SOL #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamarak says further rate hikes are still needed Looking at the wallet data left me speechless for a long time.
$ZEC currently has about 79% of the chips held by the top four addresses, which means this—everyone else in the market still watching this coin, guessing and trading, is all bundled together fighting over just these leftover crumbs. If this data were about any new coin, I wouldn’t even glance twice. People shout every day about whales controlling the market, but when it comes to an old-timer like ZEC that’s been around for years, the feeling is different, like someone quietly cleared the table.
Look at how it’s dropped 11.6% over the past 7 days, and the short-term price has been smashed down to around 1199. Doesn’t it look like a bunch of scared folks are rushing to get out before it’s completely dead? Then look at the daily chart—it kind of looks like a shallow pit has been dug all the way down. I’m not telling you to believe in this "double bottom"—analyzing this is fuzzier than fishing, with more wrong guesses than right ones. $ZEC SNDK previously said the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. Changxin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "the rise of Chinese chips," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."
SanDisk's fundamentals are fine—the NAND supply-demand gap won't peak until Q1 2028. But the stock price is reflecting the "worst-case scenario" in advance. 1450 is short-term support; if it breaks, look at 1200.
For those holding positions, if 1450 doesn't break, just hold on.To start with the conclusion: The price of $SKDD and the contract positions are telling two different stories.
In the past 24 hours, it rose from 8.5 to 9.9, an increase of about 15%, while during the same period, 239 perpetual contracts across the market were falling. But if you look at the funding rate: -0.28%, meaning the shorts are paying the longs.
What does this number mean? The funding rate is the "seat fee" between longs and shorts on perpetual contracts, settled every 8 hours, with a baseline of 0.01%. -0.28% is 28 times the baseline; if shorts hold continuously at this level for a month, they would cumulatively pay about 8% — shorts are literally burning money.
Two possibilities: one, the contract side believes this rally can't hold and keeps shorting to hedge; two, shorts are trapped inside, with growing unrealized losses, and the risk of a short squeeze from forced liquidations is building. Which is correct, the candlestick chart will tell you. But one thing is certain now: the price is rising, yet the contract side remains net short.
A word to those using leverage: if you don't understand the funding rate, don't lightly open shorts on "up days." Opening shorts on up days means you are the one paying rent.
$SKDD
Do you think the shorts will hold until 10, or will they be squeezed out first? Tonight marks the start of the Q3 earnings season, with the Big Four banks reporting first, and their results are diverging. Goldman Sachs posted net revenue of 18.68 billion, up more than 20% year-over-year, with stock trading surging 72%, exceeding expectations; JPMorgan Chase's revenue of 50.91 billion fell short of expectations, dropping 2% in pre-market; Citigroup's profits increased by 40%, while Wells Fargo's 21.87 billion was below expectations. One sweet, one salty—bank stocks are likely to split at tonight's open.
The real focus is the US September CPI report at 8:30 PM tomorrow. The market expects the overall year-over-year rate to rise from 3.4% to around 3.6%, mainly driven by oil prices; core inflation expectations remain mostly unchanged. If the core softens a bit, long-term interest rates can ease; if it hardens, bets on rate hikes will resume.
In crypto, outflows are tightening: last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $679 million, the largest week since late June, and Ethereum about $542 million. Meanwhile, the S&P hit new highs, but crypto didn't keep up—there, corporate earnings are supporting prices; here, it's reliant on new money inflows, so any tightening reveals the difference.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering between 5.19 and 5.24 at high levels. Watch two key points: if the 30-year breaks 5.64, tension rises; Bitcoin can't break above 82,500, and buying pressure hasn't returned.
Before a long trip, I usually fill up the tank and review the route once, then don't touch it. Road conditions are unpredictable; the only thing you can prepare is fuel. Just jotting this down as a personal note, not investment advice. 可以证明，麻吉应该是用了程序化交易，本该2490爆仓的麻吉，随着市场下跌，爆仓价来到了2396，又一次躲过了爆仓，可以判定，他直接爆仓可能性极小，只有一共情况，就是市场缓升，急跌，才有可能把他送走。让麻吉在追升中加仓，下跌中割肉，不断磨损本金。$ARB
Arbitrum’s challenge is turning its Layer-2 infrastructure into lasting economic activity. More applications can attract users, but raw transaction counts do not tell the whole story. Fees, liquidity, active users, and competition from other scaling networks all matter. Another important distinction: growth across Arbitrum does not automatically mean equal demand for the ARB token.#Russia and the US Advance Diesel Supply Cooperation, Disagreements Remain on Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire
Host's Commentary
Russia and the US are advancing cooperation on diesel supply. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak confirmed that energy departments and companies from both sides are in talks, and Russia has partially lifted diesel export restrictions. The US also warned Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refining facilities, or it may affect weapons and intelligence support.
However, the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire has not been implemented yet. Trump announced it, but both sides have not jointly confirmed it. Ukraine says Russia is still attacking its energy facilities. The agreement is just a declaration; details have not been finalized.
For the market, increased diesel supply is positive and can suppress refined oil prices. But the energy ceasefire is uncertain, and the Middle East remains unstable, so oil prices won't drop in the short term. Today, CL rose 0.38%, BZ fell 0.12%, showing a muted reaction.
I still hold over 82,800 long contracts on Bitcoin, with a stop loss at 81,500 and a target of 86,000. I won't bet on a single direction before the CPI release. ETFs saw a total outflow of 1.2 billion last week, 30-year US Treasury yields are at 5.7%, and macro conditions remain tight. Long positions are short-term plays for a rebound and will be reduced once targets are reached.
The Russia-US diesel cooperation is a variable, not a direction. Focus on the details, not the headlines. Don't chase rallies or panic sell; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC CPI/PPI are coming, the crypto circle awaits the whistle (｀・ω・´)
This week's crypto market script is almost entirely bet on the CPI and PPI on the 14th. Previously, the Fed minutes were hawkish, hinting at possible rate hikes by the end of the year; but nonfarm payrolls and PCE were soft, pushing the October rate hike probability down to about 18%. Don't rush to relax, the earlier inflation decline hides statistical adjustments, the hawks have not left the stage (￣﹏￣)
This round of data is a short-term watershed. If oil prices raise overall inflation but the core cools moderately, the expectation to pause rate hikes in October will dominate, $BTC is expected to surge to 87200, $ETH to recover to 2560-2650 (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Conversely, if core inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, rate hike trades will quickly return, US Treasury yields will surge, and crypto prices will be under pressure: BTC may fall back to 80000-81300, ETH may drop below 2470 and test 2370 (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Retail and initial jobless claims can serve as auxiliary indicators to observe economic strength and policy clues. Don't bet all in before the data, keep an eye on the two key levels BTC 84100 and ETH 2560, and wait for the direction to become clear before acting accordingly~ (￣▽￣)~* #September CPI announcement imminent, Hammock says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Semiconductor sector concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6%