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It seems that the regular spot buying pressure is struggling to support the continued rise of $BTC and $ETH,
Buyers at lower levels can wait for others to sell urgently and then buy at their preferred price, but those driving the price up need to keep chasing higher prices and take on chips at higher levels.
In the recent trading days from October 5 to 9:
- BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million.
- ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $542 million.
ETH is relatively more risky compared to BTC because ETH's trading pool is thinner.
Additionally, the net difference between active spot buying and selling has turned negative, and the active selling pressure on perpetual contracts has clearly increased.
This indicates that a significant portion of investors tend to sell, while a small portion of speculative funds may choose to trade during contract spikes but will not continue to chase higher prices.
Moreover, the market has already shown signs of selling altcoins and ETH, while increasing or holding $BTC positions.
It can only be said that holding BTC is equivalent to holding everything.
#September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed $ZEC $W $STRK Amid the ongoing market downturn, I have accumulated $ENA and $PENDLE on dips.
For ENA, I am betting on a "catalyst" that has yet to materialize, while for Pendle, I am capitalizing on a "mechanism" that the market sentiment has unfairly punished.
ENA (Ethena): Waiting through a long winter for "fuel"
Core logic: Betting on USDe supply surpassing $7.5 billion, which would trigger a buyback flywheel of 95% net revenue.
· Current status: USDe supply is about $4.8 billion, still about 56% growth short of the $7.5 billion threshold. The buyback switch has not been activated yet.
· Recent negative: On October 5, approximately 1.41 billion ENA tokens (14.3% of circulating supply) were unlocked. Although this was an "early end" rather than new selling pressure, the huge supply has already entered the market.
Pendle (PENDLE): The mechanism is proven, but sentiment has unfairly punished it
Core logic: The hard mechanism of 80% revenue buyback is already in effect; the current downturn is more a result of market sentiment and leverage liquidation.
· Mechanism advantage: Pendle uses 80% of protocol revenue to buy back PENDLE on the open market via smart contracts and distributes it to stakers. This is fully verifiable on-chain and is a hard-coded ratio.
· Revenue and valuation: Annualized holder income is about $16 million, corresponding to a run-rate P/S of about 15-20x, which is relatively favorable among effective cash flow assets.
#September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed Why is $SNDK falling if the storage supply-demand gap isn’t expected to close until 2028?
The fundamentals haven’t necessarily changed, but the market is already pricing in a potential profit peak in 2027. ChangXin’s breakthrough in 4F² technology has raised fears that storage chips could become much cheaper in the future.
However, SanDisk’s NAND outlook remains intact, with the supply-demand gap expected to peak in Q1 2028.
#DailyOrbit Hammock calls for a rate hike, which sounds scary on the surface, but since October is not locked in, it seems like a preemptive shot.
In my view, a rate hike in October is unlikely; it’s more probable in December.
The real fear isn’t CPI, but the dollar and capital outflows. The dollar is very strong now, and money prefers to return to dollar assets.
If core inflation decreases, Bitcoin can still catch a breath; if core inflation exceeds expectations, 80000 is likely not to hold.
Overall, December is the big risk, so let the bullets fly a little longer~
#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hammock says further rate hikes are still needed 这轮B浪尾部冲高阶段，霍尔木兹海峡地缘紧张预期，还叠加了一层避险溢价。
但$BTC 比较特殊：短期会被当成避险资产炒作，推高价格；可一旦地缘冲突持续推高油价，强化通胀粘性，市场又会反应过来——高利率会维持更久，最后又变成利空，溢价会双向反转。
$ETH ：2806这波高点，溢价成分更高。它的上涨，除了BTC的贝塔，还叠加了以太坊生态、ETH ETF远期资金流入的预期溢价，所以下跌的时候，溢价回撤力度也更大。
• $SNDK ：股价上涨也是交易远期AI存储需求，属于远期现金流溢价，一旦折现率抬升，溢价快速压缩。
一句话精简：57000到87000的B浪行情，后半段冲高到87000的绝大部分涨幅，属于透支降息预期的溢价行情；一旦通胀叙事持续偏强，这部分溢价就要被逐步回吐。Tonight's market is a bit interesting; BTC and ETH are starting to diverge.
BTC bounced back from 80961V, touched 84130 twice tonight, couldn't hold above 84000, but there are plenty of orders below 82600 supporting it, so it won't drop further. This V-shape rebound is solid.
ETH looks much worse. After breaking the critical 2626 level, it hasn't recovered. Last night it bottomed at 2407, today it bounced to 2544 and stopped, falling harder than BTC and rebounding weaker. ETF money is still flowing out; institutions now only recognize BTC, not ETH.
So on the US stock side, the Dow rises while the Nasdaq falls; in crypto, BTC is strong and ETH is weak. It's the same story: money is moving from expensive to stable. With interest rates raised this far, the storytellers are quiet, and those holding on to the big players survive.
My current view: no talk of strength until BTC holds above 84000, no talk of bottom until ETH recovers above 2626. Both lines await the CPI report at 8:30 PM tomorrow for answers.
I won't make any moves tonight or before tomorrow night.
Who has more BTC or ETH in hand now?
#VolatilityRadar: Coin movement observation $BTC $ETH $SNDK Everyone is waiting for tomorrow's US CPI data, the market is a bit hesitant, $BTC is relatively resistant to decline, while alts are weaker, it feels like everyone is waiting for a direction.
BTC is currently hovering around 83600, it once dropped to 81000 overnight but was quickly bought back. Personally, I think the key support is around 81000-83000, with resistance roughly at 84500-87000. In the short term, it's likely to remain volatile; if the CPI data doesn't exceed expectations, it might try to test the upside again, but breaking through will require more incremental funds.
$ETH is currently around 2520, consistently holding the key level at 2400; if it falls below, it will be bought. However, ETFs are still seeing outflows, which is somewhat dragging on the funds. Resistance is around 2570-2600. I think as long as 2400 holds, there is still a chance to retest near 2760 later, but that depends on improved sentiment.
$SOL has dropped relatively more, currently near 108, holding around 107.5. Resistance is roughly 114-120, and above that is 125. Personally, I think the short term is still weak; only if it can effectively hold above 120 will there be a chance to see 150, otherwise it will continue to consolidate. I spent a long time staring at SanDisk’s candlestick chart today. Pre-market trading showed the price around $1,434, down nearly 4%. For a moment, I considered closing my long position. But only for a moment. I opened a document and wrote down every negative headline hitting the market: competition from CXMT’s DRAM technology, semiconductor capital flows weakening, foreign investors continuing to sell, Samsung plunging 6.7%, SK Hynix falling more than 8%, and hawkish comments suggesting interest价格绕了一圈，还是原来的价格，合约仓位却没了。@梁老表 这场最重要的提醒，不是立刻从空头变成死多头，而是承认自己可能跟市场的看空情绪靠得太近：跌了这么久，关键支撑仍没破，就不能继续把深跌当成唯一剧本。他保留调整的可能，却开始认真推演另一条路——这轮回调也许已经接近结束。 先看 $ETH。老表认为，2400附近已经得到再次测试，随后又收了回来，小级别双底没有被破坏。这意味着支撑并不是纸上的一条线，而是当前必须尊重的边界。只要2400不破，不能因为此前预期下跌，就无脑等2100、2200或者更低位置，更不能拿着空单一路扛，假设市场必然按自己的路线走。 真正让他考虑转向的，是2550—2560附近的日线MA50。他给的条件很明确：看本周能不能重新站上这条均线，并在上方守住。如果收复后下不来，周线也得到修复，那么原来的下破就可能只是一个假动作，把大家的情绪引向空头后，价格重新回到上方。这才是他所说的偏多确认，不是看到一根反弹就立即宣布调整结束。 在2400不破、并且本周收回2560的前提下，他给出ETH的理想上方目标3000—3300。这是条件成立后的推演空间，不能脱离前提单独当成目标价喊单。I’m still buying into this SanDisk pullback.
1419.1 Long $SNDK
Since the Changxin news broke, the market has spent the past two days pricing in the idea that rising domestic memory production will destroy SanDisk’s competitive advantage. I think this reaction is excessive.
Changxin’s main focus is DRAM, while SanDisk’s core business revolves around NAND and SSDs.
#DailyOrbit Ceasefire rumors pressure oil prices, BTC and gold among CPI “cards”
On October 11, Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement on an energy ceasefire. Once the news broke, the market first traded on "supply risk cooling down": oil prices were briefly pushed down, and the energy premium was squeezed out. However, this ceasefire has not yet been fully confirmed by both Russia and Ukraine, and the scope, duration, and supervision mechanisms remain unclear, meaning oil prices could fluctuate again at any time due to reversal news.
Interestingly, the weakening of oil prices did not simply negatively impact all assets. For $BTC and gold, the decline in energy prices can ease inflation concerns and instead provide temporary bottom support. However, whether the two can continue to rebound depends not only on oil prices but also on the real-time pricing of U.S. Treasury yields: if yields fall, the pressure on non-yielding assets is relieved; if yields rebound due to rising inflation expectations, $BTC and gold will remain under pressure.
The real highlight is the CPI on the 14th. This data will determine how the market adjusts the rate cut path and inflation stickiness judgment, and will also transmit to the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and BTC. Before that, the ceasefire news seems more like a short-term disturbance rather than a trend answer. The market is waiting for the next card. #September CPI announcement imminent, Harmak says further rate hikes still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
$BTC Both sides are flowing out together, but not by the same percentage.
▪️ On 10/7 the same day: Bitcoin ETF redemption was 485 million, Ethereum 161 million, the former being the largest since 6/25
▪️ But relative to their respective pools, Bitcoin's outflow is only a portion of Ethereum's
▪️ Last week, ETFs were positive four out of five days, with only 82.9 million left for the week, compared to 2.39 billion the previous week
▪️ Meanwhile, on-chain whales stopped sending coins at the end of August, and the profit realization ratio of long-term holders rose from 34% to 55%
The divergence is not about whether both sides flow out together, but about which pool the redemption amount is divided by to assess severity.
The term "simultaneous outflow" places two quantities of different magnitudes side by side: the total pool of Bitcoin ETFs is much larger than Ethereum's, so the impact of the same amount of money on both sides is completely different. Therefore, to gauge direction, one should not only look at absolute amounts but also relative denominators. There is also reverse evidence regarding whether institutional demand has weakened—the profit realization ratio of on-chain long-term holders is rising, indicating supply-side turnover is happening simultaneously.
The direction suggests a wait-and-see approach—only if the relative ratio continues to narrow can it be considered a simultaneous weakening; if only absolute amounts move in the same direction, it is a measurement illusion.$SNDK previously stated that the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. ChangXin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "China's chip rise," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."
SanDisk's fundamentals are fine—the NAND supply-demand gap won't peak until Q1 2028.
#SepCPIHikeWatch Daily spot investment of 90u, on the 5️⃣✖️🔟➕4️⃣ day
Brothers, hold on. $BTC $ETH $OKB
A weekly outflow of $678.9 million — US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow last week, with a single-day outflow of $484.9 million on October 7. Institutional money is withdrawing, but the price hasn't crashed, indicating spot support is still there.#Semiconductor sector faces concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6% The semiconductor sector is experiencing a concentrated sell-off, with South Korea's KOSPI index plunging significantly. Market concerns about the AI industry chain's high valuations, capital crowding, and the storage chip cycle are intensifying. My view: This round of decline should not be simply interpreted as the end of the AI rally; more caution is needed regarding the chain reaction caused by high valuation corrections and concentrated capital withdrawals. First, semiconductor trading is overly crowded. Previously, the AI computing power, HBM storage, DRAM, and NAND industry chains have been continuously favored by capital. When market expectations are highly aligned, any negative news or earnings falling short of expectations can trigger concentrated profit-taking, potentially causing a rapid sector downturn. Second, focus on the fundamentals of storage chips. South Korea's semiconductor industry has a significant impact on the global storage market. The stock performance of companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix not only reflects market sentiment but also represents capital's repricing of storage prices, AI demand, and future profit growth. As long as AI computing power demand does not experience a substantial reversal, the industry cycle's end cannot be judged solely by a sharp stock price drop. However, if storage price growth slows, inventory increases, or capital expenditure returns fall below expectations, a valuation reassessment is necessary. Third, the real risk lies in the resonance of liquidity and valuation. When a hot sector undergoes a significant pullback, leveraged funds and quantitative trading may further amplify volatility. Even if the long-term industry logic remains unchanged, short-term stock prices may continue to face pressure. Continued#Strategy slowdown in accumulation, changes in corporate treasury strategy? As the most benchmark BTC corporate treasury representative, the pace of coin purchases has clearly cooled down. The funds raised through financing are no longer entirely spent on buying coins; a significant portion is prioritized for repurchasing preferred shares, optimizing debt structure, and supplementing cash buffers, sparking market discussion: Has the long-term coin hoarding approach changed?
Its classic model in the past was straightforward: issuing shares to raise funds, prioritizing buying BTC, and continuously expanding holdings. Now, entering an active capital management phase, it prioritizes handling dividends, debts, and reserving liquidity, no longer blindly accelerating accumulation. The core reason is the high-interest-rate environment raising financing costs, combined with the narrowing premium of MSTR stock price, reducing the cost-effectiveness of "issuing shares to exchange for coins."
Key distinction: slowdown in accumulation ≠ abandoning the BTC treasury strategy. There is currently no official announcement to stop hoarding coins; it has just shifted from aggressive acceleration to a more conservative mode that pays more attention to financing windows. If the stock price premium recovers and the financing environment improves later, increased buying intensity is not ruled out.
The funding signal of this matter deserves attention: it is one of the important sources of incremental off-exchange demand. The slowdown means a significant reduction in certain buy-side support in the short term, which is somewhat bearish for BTC sentiment. But this is a rhythm adjustment, not a concentrated sell-off, and is completely different from directly selling coins to exit.
Follow-up focus: weekly coin purchase announcements, usage of ATM issuance quotas, and whether there is continuous selling of coins to pay off debt dividends. If low-pace buying is maintained long-term, it means the incremental mainline of corporate treasury is temporarily weakened. $BTC $ETH $BTC 跌到8万关口，这波反弹是多头反攻还是诱多呀😯
大家有没有留意，Token2049大会这段时间，大饼从87000一路下杀到80300附近，一口气跌了7000点，跌得挺出乎意料的。
对比下来盘面分化特别明显，ETH直接跌破之前的中继支撑，摸到2400附近的起涨位置；但BTC守住了80300这道中期位置，没有跟着破位，能看出来这个位置承接买盘很强。10月12日凌晨它两次下探插针80300，都在80900附近拉回来，支撑力度肉眼可见。
不过这里有个疑点让我不敢轻易看多。按以往的套路，如果机构真心想往上拉，一般会先砸破整数关口，把下方多头止损全部扫干净再启动上涨。这次大饼刚好卡在8万上方止跌，总感觉像是吸引多头进场，洗盘并不充分，很有诱多的嫌疑。
我自己的思路会偏谨慎一点，暂时保留高位空单的思路，可以等反弹到84300–85500这个压力区间再考虑加空。
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 周期资金偏好视角，区分周期早期价值叙事与后期Meme狂欢
一轮周期不同阶段，资金偏好完全不同。早期看重基本面，中后期资金更喜欢炒作情绪类标的。
$BTC 判断当前所处周期阶段，$ETH 观察资金偏好切换。分层甄别：周期后期不要用基本面逻辑去判断Meme币种。
跟踪标的清单：
🟠BTC｜周期定位基准
🔵ETH｜资金偏好标尺
🟣ATOM｜跨链龙头
🟢LINK｜预言机龙头
🔷FET｜AI加密标的
重点观察BTC、ETH相对强弱：
周期早期，LINK、FET这类基本面标的领涨；周期中后期，Meme标的轮番拉升，基本面标的滞涨，是周期阶段切换的信号。What really eats up retail investors is often not the sharp drops, but the kind of "wide-range oscillation" that "looks like it's going to rise." $ETH was aggressively pulled from 2407 to nearly 2533, showing surface strength, but still fell 6.19% over 7 days — this is not a trend, it's a meat grinder. My trading logic has always been simple: after buying, as long as the stop loss is not triggered and the floating profit exceeds 15%, move the stop loss up to the cost price. Using a small cost to exchange for a large profit, the logic is sound, but reality is harsh. Once encountering a choppy market, even if you don't lose money, you almost can't make money. As soon as the floating profit appears, a slight price pullback triggers the break-even stop loss. It just kicks you off, then the price rises back — that feeling is very unpleasant. In such wide-range oscillations like $ETH, the "break-even stop loss" is precisely the perfect target for whales to hunt retail investors. Placing a break-even stop loss is like telling big money "I can't withstand the volatility" — if they don't sweep you, who will? This is not a conspiracy theory, but a market structure fact: the places with the densest liquidity are where stop loss orders concentrate, and prices are naturally attracted there. Trading is the art of compromise. Without stop loss, you will eventually be liquidated; with break-even stop loss, you have to endure being repeatedly stopped out. Since you choose defense and counterattack, you must accept the cost of not making money or being stopped out in a choppy market. Break-even stop loss is defense; it will make you miss some big moves, but at least ensures you survive extreme market conditions. There is a second-order effect easily overlooked here: when most people move their stop loss up to the cost price, the market's "effective volatility range" is actually amplified — because every stop loss sweep creates additional buying and selling pressure.About the BNB burn mechanism:
In the Auto-Burn formula, the higher the BNB price in the current quarter, the fewer BNB tokens are burned; the lower the price, the more tokens are burned.
After BNB Smart Chain block production sped up, the parameters of the Auto-Burn formula were adjusted to maintain the original burn concept.
$BNB 745.66 (-0.027%)
How to proceed is up to you; this is just a share.SanDisk fell from 1909 to 1445, how are those who chased the highs doing now?
Last week they were still hyping SanDisk, saying Rosenblatt's target price was 2400, and that NAND price increases were in a super cycle. What about now? SanDisk is at 1445, down 460 dollars from the high of 1909, a 24% loss. RSI dropped straight from 94 to oversold, and the candlesticks are all big bearish lines.
$SNDK 1445, down nearly 10% in two days. When it previously opened with a 100+ point jump, how many people chased in? Now everyone is stuck at the peak. The NAND price increase logic hasn't changed, Q1 rose 60%, Q2 is expected to rise 70%, but the stock price just doesn't buy it. No logic when it rises, no logic when it falls.
The most ironic is Rosenblatt. They just initiated coverage with a buy rating and a 2400 target price in early October, citing AI reshaping NAND value. Now the stock price is 1445, nearly 1000 dollars below the target. Institutions call the shots, retail investors take the losses, a classic script.
$MU 938, fell 5% along with SanDisk. Micron at least has a 35 billion buyback supporting it, SanDisk has nothing, purely relying on NAND price increase expectations. Once expectations loosen, it will fall much harder than Micron.
Now the question is: Is SanDisk at 1445 a bottom-fishing opportunity or a continuation of the downtrend?
Bulls say NAND prices will keep rising next year, earnings will double, and the PE is only 19 times, so it's cheap.
Bears say Changxin's capacity is coming online, NAND prices will collapse next year, and bottom-fishing now is catching a falling knife.
#SanDiskMicronDown, ChangxinTechProgressInFocus It's cheaper now, so what?
$HYPE I think the easiest mistake to make right now is to confuse trading activity with a price bottom. Around 82.7, it dropped about 5.3% in 24 hours, but the trading volume was about $940 million. There are buyers and sellers; a large trading volume only means active trading, it doesn't directly indicate that buyers have the upper hand. At this point, convincing yourself with hype doesn't help much. We're discussing long-term development, but enduring short-term volatility—these two things must be distinguished. If your reason to buy is just "everyone is still talking about it," when the price keeps falling, it's easy to suddenly switch to "planning to hold long-term."
$PENDLE is already near 2.05, down about 10% in the past month. I want to ask: if you didn't buy before, why do you want to buy now? If it's just because it's cheaper than before, that's not enough reason. After a price discount, you need to reconsider whether the reasons that justified a higher valuation before still hold. You can't keep thinking it's a bargain as the price keeps dropping, ending up with only lower costs and heavier positions.
$SEI is around 0.062, down about 9% in 24 hours, but still up nearly 40% over the past month. This is interesting: at the same price, early buyers might feel they can still endure it, but newcomers are already struggling. So when you see bullish or bearish comments, I don't follow them blindly. Others who entered early with light positions can wait, but that doesn't mean you can. First, calculate how much volatility you can endure, then consider whether this trade is worth it.现在更像博弈段，不是追涨段，也不是干净的趋势延续。 你猜，两个方向完全相反的大户，谁在替市场交学费？ 我盯着这场"十一老板"和"马吉大哥"的对台戏看了一会儿，最大的感受不是谁赚谁亏，而是节奏已经变了。十一老板的ETH永续30倍全仓多，均价2630.03，结果2620.29就平了，拿了不到两分钟，亏21025U，回报率负12.73%。这不是看错方向那么简单，这是开了高杠杆之后，发现自己站在了流动性的反面。 同一时间，他的BTC永续30倍全仓空，均价80798.6，平在80739.7，只赚5159U，回报率正1.91%。ZEC永续5倍单独空，均价1466.89，持2000张，落袋7451U。你看，同样是高倍，ETH上他秒认错，BTC和ZEC上他拿得住。说明什么？不是他忽然变保守，而是他知道哪里的拥挤度更高、哪里更容易被反向扫。 马吉大哥那边更像另一种剧本。BTC 40倍空持续有利润，ETH 25倍多却在扛、在退，空头仓位大、账户压力也大。两个人一个偏多一个偏空，但都在用高倍表达，这本身就是市场进入分歧期的信号。趋势没坏，但赚钱方式从"拿住"变成了"抢节奏"。 这里市场的关键变化是：高倍仓位💰 Blur + Blast: Fundraising, Token Allocation, and Billions in Paper Wealth—What Does It Really Mean?
The teams behind Blur and Blast have previously created impressive numbers.
📊 First stop: Blur ($BLUR)
- 💵 Raised about $11 million
- 🪙 Core contributors and advisors received 30.2% of $BLUR token allocation
- 🚀 At the token's all-time high price of $5.02, this portion of tokens has a paper value of approximately $4.54 billion
📊 Second stop: Blast ($BLAST)
- 💵 Raised about $20 million again
- 🪙 Core contributors received about 25.48 billion $BLAST tokens
- 🚀 At the all-time high price of $0.029, this portion of tokens has a paper value of approximately $744 million
- 💰 The network's cumulative revenue is reportedly about $20.8 million
If you add the fundraising amounts and Blast's network revenue, the total is about $51.8 million; meanwhile, the teams' token allocations for both projects, calculated at their respective all-time highs, have a combined paper peak value exceeding $5.2 billion.
⚠️ But here is a key distinction: paper value does not equal actual cash-out proceeds.
Multiplying the all-time high price by the number of tokens can only estimate the theoretical peak market value.THE LEVERAGE CROWD HAS A SMALL EXIT DOOR. 🚪
An Oct. 13 Hyperliquid snapshot shows $1.66B in $HYPE perpetual open interest against $611M in 24h turnover—a 2.72 ratio.
For $BTC on the same venue? Just 1.03.
HYPE was down 5.9% in that snapshot.
The ratio doesn’t measure order-book liquidity or predict liquidations. It reveals how large outstanding exposure is relative to trading activity.
US CPI arrives Oct. 14.
#HYPE #OpenInterest #DailyOrbit 这波最狠的不是涨，是暴涨之后突然调头——10月8日Starknet喊出"抗量子、想转L1"，$STRK 一天冲40%，可"正在考虑"四个字，离真正落地还差着2027年的时间表。
我选择在0.09847挂空，逻辑很简单：情绪已经把预期打满，但生态TVL较峰值还腰斩、日均收入几千美元，故事撑不起价格。
果然10月13日大盘一冷，BTC跌3%带崩山寨，STRK单日回吐28%，标记价跌到0.08616，我这单50倍吃到625%浮盈。
后市看0.086能不能守住，10月15日还有解锁抛压，短线空单别贪，分批落袋更稳。$BTC $ETH 【ETH ETF Outflows for 10 Consecutive Days, $577 Million Hits Record】
The most noteworthy today is that the Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, with nearly $576.9 million accumulated over the past 5 days, marking the largest 5-day outflow since January this year. During the same period, the BTC ETF also experienced a weekly outflow of $681.1 million.
1. What has changed with ETH? BlackRock's ETHA saw a weekly net outflow of $477 million, becoming the main source of withdrawals, indicating institutions are systematically reducing their ETH allocations.
2. Why is this significant? In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $814 million, with long positions accounting for $686 million, meaning long leverage was just heavily liquidated. ETFs are withdrawing, leverage is bursting, yet ETH's price has not collapsed—this "double kill without a drop" divergence suggests the market is repricing.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? It leans towards an "institution-led deleveraging phase." After funds leave the ETH ETF, some flow into XRP and other assets with higher regulatory certainty, rather than a complete exit from the crypto market.
Next, watch for when ETH ETF outflows turn positive in a single day—that will be the first signal of a shift in institutional sentiment. $ETH Stablecoins decreased by $856 million, does this mean funds are leaving the crypto space?
Seeing the decline in stablecoin market cap, the market easily jumps to the conclusion of capital flight.
But this inference requires more evidence.
Lookonchain statistics from October 5 to 11 show three notable changes in on-chain activity:
① Total stablecoin market cap decreased by $855.94 million.
② DEX spot trading volume dropped by 19.34% week-over-week.
③ DEX perpetual contract trading volume actually increased by 8.20%.
I also cross-referenced DefiLlama data, where weekly changes in spot and perpetual contracts also move in opposite directions, but due to different statistical scopes, the declines cannot be directly compared.
Here are two often overlooked issues.
First, a decline in stablecoin market cap does not equal the same amount of funds leaving the crypto market. Redemptions, cross-chain supply changes, and other factors need to be separately confirmed.
Second, an increase in perpetual contract volume does not necessarily mean bulls or bears dominate.
My interpretation is: what can be confirmed now is that market trading activity is diverging, not that funds have fully withdrawn.
If stablecoins continue to shrink, spot trading remains sluggish, and perpetual contract open interest increases, then further examination of leverage risk accumulation is needed.
Conversely, if spot activity rebounds and stablecoin supply recovers, this divergence may just be a short-term adjustment.
Market direction requires evidence, not conclusions based on a single number.
$BTC $ETH #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
$TSM revenue hit a new high, with the headline itself stating "To Be Revealed."
▪️ September revenue was NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% year-over-year, down 0.6% month-over-month
▪️ Q3 gross margin guidance is 65%–67%, lower than the actual 67.7% in Q2
▪️ The upper and lower bounds of the revenue guidance range have been revised upward for two consecutive quarters
▪️ Gross margin level in the same period last year was about 8 percentage points lower than now
▪️ The only missing part of this report card is the gap between the earnings announcement date and the revenue data
The disagreement is not about whether it sold well, but that "selling more" and "earning more per unit sold" are separated this time.
September revenue rose more than 50% year-over-year but was negative month-over-month — indicating the growth pace is slowing rather than accelerating. More importantly, the gross margin guidance falls between 65%–67%, which is 0.7 to 2.7 percentage points lower than Q2 actual: capacity ramp-up and depreciation front-loading of advanced processes will first show up on the profit side. Revenue reflects the past, gross margin is its own judgment, and the real numbers have to wait for the earnings report.
The direction is to wait and see — the earnings gross margin needs to hit the upper end of the guidance to be solid; if it falls below 65%, this volume-price divergence will continue.$BTC has held its ground, but the money hasn't come back yet
$BTC was around $83,100 last night, basically flat over 24h, $ETH at $2,493 is still grinding down, down 1.9% in 24h. The daytime rebound held, but we need to see what’s supporting it: in the first week of October, ETFs saw a total outflow of over $1.2 billion, $ETH funds have had outflows for 8 consecutive days, money is flowing out. The support comes from spot buying and short covering absorbing selling pressure, not new money entering.
Wintermute’s comment today was spot on: the crypto market relies on incremental funds, and with the flow of funds reversed, a six-week counter-trend rebound is hard to sustain. Tomorrow is CPI, inflation expectations are around 3.6%, higher than last month’s 3.4%. If it beats expectations, the 10-year US Treasury yield will push higher, and tonight’s "hold" will just be a pause.
Watch two signals: if $BTC falls below $82,000, it means support is exhausted; if $ETH can’t get back above $2,500, the market can’t stand on its own.The party stopped last week. After three straight weeks of inflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681 million in net outflows from October 5 to 9, the largest weekly exit since June. On October 13, Bitcoin briefly slipped under $81,000 before clawing back above $83,000, and the pressure came directly from the same buyers who pushed it up. On-chain data shows Bitcoin is now trading right at the average cost basis of ETF holders around $83,700. When price returns to entry, many investors sell. ThOne thing about ZEC that really annoys me is that when it rises, everyone says privacy is the future, but when it falls, it suddenly becomes an "obsolete relic that no one uses."
The speed of this flip-flop is honestly impressive.
But recently, I've been thinking about a more realistic question: if one day Zcash's privacy features become exceptionally good, will the price definitely go up?
Not necessarily.
ZEC has a fixed supply cap, and miner rewards will gradually decrease, which does provide it with a long-term supply framework. But an increase in privacy transaction usage doesn't mean all users will hold onto the coins long-term.
Some might just buy $ZEC temporarily, complete the transfer, and then sell immediately. The more convenient the wallet experience, the faster the capital turnover might even be.
So now, I don't really like seeing statements like "privacy demand explodes, ZEC will inevitably skyrocket." Whether demand can translate into sustained buying pressure involves many factors that need verification.
Of course, I hope more and more people use Zcash, and I hope the coins I follow will rise. But to really judge the market, I still look at capital flow, circulating supply, and actual usage.
Relying solely on faith, the market might not necessarily buy it.
For now, I'll watch the short term. When demand and buying pressure can show some real substance, then I'll consider increasing my position. The US September CPI is coming out tomorrow night, and Federal Reserve officials and the market are in a heated debate.
Cleveland Fed President Mester said yesterday that inflationary pressures have "widely spread," not just in energy—tariffs are pushing up corporate costs, and AI data center construction is competing for electricity and components. She leans toward "smaller, more frequent" rate hikes.
But the market is not buying it at all. CME data shows a 79.5% probability of holding rates steady in October, with only 20.5% betting on a hike. More importantly, the probability of a rate hike in December is as high as 70.3%—the market’s message is: pause in October, decide in December.
The core disagreement centers on tomorrow night’s CPI. Institutions expect the overall year-on-year rate to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%, with diesel and transportation costs still passing through after oil prices surged above $100. But the core CPI month-on-month may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%.
If the core really drops to 0.2%, the market will reinforce the expectation of "pause in October, decide in December"; if it remains at 0.3% or higher, the probability of an October hike will climb back above 20%.
As for $BTC, the price is stuck between 82,000 and 83,000, with ETF funds seeing a net outflow of $680 million in the past week, so there’s no big capital support in the short term. The core CPI figure tomorrow night will directly determine whether $BTC continues to consolidate or dips further. #SeptemberCPIcomingsoon, Mester says further rate hikes are still needed It sounds smooth, but the market doesn't pay out according to the numbers. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Currently, Bitcoin's market dominance has returned to about 60%. Among 169 active coins during the same period, 158 have fallen deeper than it in this correction. Many people see the dominance rising and assume all the funds are buying Bitcoin. In fact, both sides are falling together; altcoins are dropping harder, so the dominance can still be pushed up. The most frustrating thing about altcoins is this: they fall very actively, but when they rebound, they suddenly start talking about long-termism. If a coin falls harder than Bitcoin and rebounds weaker than Bitcoin, whether "it has already fallen a lot" is an opportunity or just reluctance to admit loss depends first on its exchange rate against Bitcoin. Over the same period, if holding it exchanges for less and less Bitcoin, it means the volatility was endured, but the asset strength did not keep up. To really wait for rotation, at least you have to see it consistently outperform Bitcoin, rebound with volume, and have buyers on the dip. A single daily spike doesn't prove anything. Altcoins certainly still have opportunities, but not every coin does. "It hasn't risen yet" and "it deserves to rise" are quite far apart. #September CPI announcement is imminent, Harmak says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Semiconductor sector sees concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6% ZEC (Zcash) Downtrend Analysis
1. Market Rotation and Sector Shifts (Fundamental Factors)
ZEC is a privacy narrative coin, with its earlier surge largely driven by hype around privacy coins. When market focus shifts to AI, Layer2, and new public chains, incremental funds withdraw from older narrative sectors. When BTC and ETH experience volatility and pullbacks, highly elastic coins like ZEC fall significantly more than mainstream coins; macro-wise, repeated interest rate cut expectations reduce risk appetite, and funds prioritize taking profits from heavily appreciated narrative coins.
2. Concentrated Profit-Taking (Core Spot Selling Pressure)
ZEC had a huge short-term gain previously, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions. After price spikes, early whales, institutions, and treasury positions gradually take profits, moving large amounts of tokens from cold wallets to exchanges, creating spot selling pressure. This rally was largely narrative-driven rather than sustained by continuous new inflows, so buying quickly dries up after the positive news is realized.
3. Contract Leverage Liquidations Accelerate Decline
Many long positions accumulated during the uptrend; after breaking key technical support levels, a chain reaction of long liquidations is triggered, with forced selling pushing prices lower, creating negative feedback. ZEC’s depth and liquidity are weaker than BTC/ETH, so even moderate sell orders can cause large drawdowns. During the decline, funding rates turn negative, with short positions dominating the contract market, intensifying downward pressure.
#ZEC institutional funds entering, high-level leverage starting to clear #ZEC whale liquidates 38,000 short contracts, losing over $35 million BTC and ETH just staged a sudden rebound, triggering the stop-losses on my heavily sized short positions. I ended up losing dozens of dollars, which is definitely frustrating. But one thing remains unchanged: I’m still cautious about the market and leaning bearish for now. If you’re also trading, there’s no need to rush into a position. Waiting for the upcoming CPI report before making a decision may be the smarter move. Why am I still bearish? First, the Fed’s hawkish stance continues to put pr#Russia and the US Advance Diesel Supply Cooperation, Disagreements Remain on Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire
The Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire increasingly looks like a one-sided monologue.
On October 11, Trump announced that both sides had reached an energy ceasefire, but Ukraine said Russia was still attacking its energy facilities. On October 12, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak confirmed that Russian and US energy departments and companies are negotiating diesel supply, and Russia has partially lifted diesel export restrictions. According to media reports, the US also warned Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries, or it might affect weapons and intelligence support to Ukraine.
The logic of the whole matter is clear. The US wants diesel supply, Russia wants export channels, and both sides get what they need. As for Ukraine, in this energy ceasefire, it seems more like a bargaining chip on the table. So after a few days of ceasefire calls, no agreement has been implemented, and attacks continue.
For the market, the focus is very practical. Diesel supply arrangements are still progressing, but the energy ceasefire has not materialized. Oil prices are slightly weak in the short term; Brent fell 1.03% today. But a bigger variable is that the US needs Russian diesel to fill the gap, indicating that global refined oil supply is already so tight that there is no room to choose suppliers.
For BTC, this is a marginal short-term positive. Falling oil prices can ease inflation expectations, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. But don’t celebrate too soon; as long as the energy ceasefire is not formalized in writing and Middle East shipping risks remain unresolved, oil prices could bounce back at any time. $CL $BZ $USO Brian Foster，Coinbase干了七年，管过贝莱德合作，现在跑去Morpho做市场推广了。
我上周刚追了一笔RWA概念，看消息面挺猛就冲了，结果两天回吐一半。
教训就是：高管履历再漂亮，跟币价短期没半毛钱关系。
Morpho这步棋，说白了是想把链上信贷卖给传统机构，方向没错。
但短线客别激动，人事任命不是催化剂，资金跟不跟才是。
我的预测：这消息最多撑一天情绪，后面还得看链上存款数据有没有真变化。
没变化，就当没发生过。
#代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？
#$BTC ETC at $8.15, are you still waiting for it to rebound?
From 10.35 down to 7.78, the halving has landed, the upgrade is still far off, and tomorrow’s CPI hangs overhead—Is this the final shakeout, or the slow death of an old chain?
First, look at the surface: it’s dropped, but halving happened, and Olympia’s expectations remain.
Down 9% in the past week, up 6% in the past month, rebounded from 7.2 in mid-September to 10.35, then gave back to 8.15. Market cap 1.3 billion, mid-tier altcoin, not a mainline.
The candlesticks tell you: price stuck in the 8.00-8.36 decision zone, daily RSI 42, 4-hour RSI 38, MACD below zero line, broke below 7-day and 30-day moving averages, selling pressure volume up—all indicators shout one thing: short-term bearish, don’t rush to bottom-fish.
But take another look at the weekly chart.
At the end of September, the “Fifthening” halving completed, block rewards dropped another 20% to 1.6384 ETC. Max supply 210.7 million, circulating 155-159 million.
Supply is contracting, the story is brewing. This is the most divisive point.
First thing: halving has landed, but the market didn’t even blink.
New halving cycle started end of September, block rewards down 20% again.
Sounds like great news, right?
But look at the market—price fell from 10.35 all the way to 7.78, halving didn’t lift the price.
Why?
Because halving is an expectation, already priced in.
The market buys “halving will happen in the future,” not “halving has happened.”
Good news turning bad news is the classic crypto script, haven’t you memorized it yet?
Second thing: Olympia upgrade is the only decent catalyst this year.
Olympia targets late 2026: EIP-1559-like dynamic fees, about 80% of base fees go to on-chain treasury, DAO controls spending.
In plain language:
ETC aims to transform from “old PoW with no code changes” to “PoW Ethereum with sustainable development funding.”
Sounds exciting, right?
But before landing, it’s just expectation, not a driver of current price.
Third thing: technicals are hitting resistance, not support—CPI tomorrow is a looming threat.
Current 8.15 is right on first resistance.
Resistance at 8.30-8.36, must reclaim to confirm bottom.
Support at 8.00 (psychological level) → 7.78-7.94 (Oct 8 low) → 7.50 → 7.06.
Daily chart looks like a pullback in a down channel, no higher lows yet.
Bollinger Bands near lower band, short-term rebound space exists, but rebound ≠ reversal.
Macro?
BTC once dropped below 82,000, spot BTC ETF saw net outflow of 680 million last week, ETH ETF outflows for consecutive days, Korean stocks plunged on AI/chip concerns.
Tomorrow (Oct 14) US CPI is the watershed.
If hot, altcoins get hit first; if cool, repair window opens.
ETC, a low liquidity asset, falls faster than BTC when macro tightens, and rebounds are more fake.
Bull vs bear, you decide:
Bulls:
Halving landed, supply shrinking
Olympia upgrade expected, catalyst in 2026
Fake Core-Geth event in September passed, miners switched back to safe version
Perpetual funding rate slightly negative, open interest falls with price, bulls reducing positions, not bears aggressively opening
Bollinger Bands near lower band, short-term rebound possible
Bears:
Daily bearish alignment, EMA resistance, MACD below zero
Halving good news landed but no price lift, market not buying
Olympia too far away, landing in 2026
No ETF money story, volume driven by contracts and sentiment rotation
Tomorrow’s CPI, macro risk assets under pressure
Breaking 8.00 likely triggers another round of long liquidation
Trading strategy
Short-term long (only on rebounds):
Aggressive: don’t break 8.00-8.05, 1-hour close above 8.20, light position, target 8.36/8.55, stop loss 7.92.
Conservative: wait for daily close above 8.36, then enter on pullback without break, target 8.66, 9.00, stop loss below 8.10.
Oversold rebound: if price drops to 7.78-7.90 with lower shadow and volume contraction, can try once, stop loss 7.65, target first 8.15-8.30. This is bottom-fishing, not a trend trade.
Short-term short:
8.30-8.55 fails to break higher, falls back below 8.15, or volume break below 8.00, short, target 7.80, extend to 7.50.
Stop loss 0.15-0.20 above entry candle high, don’t hold past 8.66.
Mid-term:
Only two cases worth holding:
Olympia testnet/mainnet schedule clear, and price reclaims 9.20;
Post-CPI risk appetite returns, ETC follows ETH recovery.
Before that, it’s a 7.80-9.20 range ticket.
Don’t hold with “value coin” mindset before breaking 10.35.
Invalidation:
Daily close below 7.70 opens lower range, look at 7.50/7.06, all long logic invalid.
Daily close above 8.66 invalidates bearish logic, look to 9.00.
ETC now is like the 2016 fork—
Everyone shouts “Code is Law,” but ten years later, it’s still telling the same story.
Halving landed, upgrade in 2026, no ETF, developers left.
You think you’re bottom-fishing ETC, but you’re actually renewing faith from 2016.
Old chains don’t die, they just slowly wither. But your margin won’t wait for its rebound day.
The day it breaks 8.36—
It’s either the start of a rebound or another pump-and-dump.
$BTC $ETH $ETC This Yi Lihua, do any of you brothers follow him?
Do you think the BTC resistance and support levels he describes in the article are reliable?
Let me comment one by one:
First question: The 400-day moving average of BTC is at 81,000, so it can get support and rebound here.
Comment: What the heck is a 400-day moving average? Twice the 200-day? It's the first time I've heard of a 400-day moving average. To prove his sharp insight, does he have to make up a BTC 400-day moving average?
Second question: The strong resistance level of BTC is at 86,500, so every time it reaches here, it pulls back.
Comment: Does it pull back because there is resistance at 86,500? Isn't it due to recent macro issues like the crazy rise in oil prices, the repeated ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine on oil and gas, and the unstable situation between Yemen and Saudi Arabia? It's just that there was no special positive catalyst to push a one-time rebound above 90,000, and it just happened that BTC encountered resistance at 86,500.
When all these coincidences come together, it is described as a mechanical executable operation method. This kind of thinking is extremely naive.#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
我看这数据，先别慌着喊“机构跑了”。
$BTC 、$ETH 现货ETF同步流出，说明受监管渠道里的配置盘在降温，尤其是ETH连八天撤资，比BTC更像“真减配”。
但我更倾向叫它：宏观避险+获利了结，不是长线机构集体逃。
美债收益率、美元、地缘风险一上来，ETF里的大钱先砍beta，BTC和ETH一起被削很正常。
区别在于：BTC是脉冲式流出，ETH是趋势性流出。所以“机构需求转弱”这句话，对ETH更成立，对BTC算是短期退潮。
接下来就看三天：流出是不是扩散到IBIT/FBTC/ARKB全阵营，还是只集中在个别产品；BTC能不能站回84k；
CPI和美联储表态后资金是否回流。若继续连撤，那就是需求拐点；若止跌回补，就只是十月去杠杆。
$SNDK
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $BAT short positions are too many, every time the whale pumps it slowly slides down, pumping a few points at a time can't trigger the short positions, and instead the shorts keep adding to their positions. How long can this coin last relying entirely on the whale's pumping?Unichain has been "sent away," what remains of the $UNI story?
On October 29, Uniswap Labs handed over its own child Unichain to Optimism. This self-owned L2, which was only set to launch in 2025, survived just over a year before being hastily transferred. The announcement was understated, but the strategic contraction is unmistakableUniswap is refocusing on its core business.
For UNI holders, this is not good news.
The daily trading volume of the Uniswap main protocol has always been strong,#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? The leader has something to say
BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw outflows last week, totaling $1.221 billion. BTC net outflow was $679 million, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows. ETH net outflow was $542 million, the largest single-week outflow since January, with nine consecutive trading days of outflows.
Is institutional demand weakening? My judgment is that this is a phase of portfolio adjustment, not a trend of withdrawal. Before the CPI release, funds are hedging, which is expected. Plus, with 30-year US Treasury yields at 5.7% and short-term debt yields high enough, some funds temporarily move into fixed income, which is normal.
But ETH is weaker than BTC. BitMine already holds 6.03 million ETH, close to 5% of total supply, and management says they have basically bought enough. The largest ETH treasury buyer has stopped, so ETH lost key support. Therefore, ETH fell harder than BTC and its rebound is weaker than BTC's.
Today the market is recovering, BTC up 2.09%, ETH up 2.94%. ETF fund flows and short-term prices are diverging; some are selling, some are buying. The market is waiting for CPI to set the direction.
I still hold my BTC long at 82,800+, stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000. ETF outflows are a slow variable and do not affect the short-term rebound rhythm. I will reduce positions at the target, no stubborn holding. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I won't touch ETH for now, waiting for ETF funds to flow back. No chasing highs or panic selling, just set stop losses properly. The most noteworthy data today is that BTC's total network contract open interest sharply dropped by 6.05% within 24 hours, falling to $54.091 billion. Meanwhile, the price rebounded above 83,000, making the signal of position reduction and rebound worth a close look.
1. What changed? This morning, BTC briefly fell below 81,000, with over $770 million in leveraged positions liquidated within 24 hours, of which 88.9% were long positions. The price then made a V-shaped recovery, but the open interest did not rise correspondingly.
2. Why is this important? This rebound accompanied by a decline in open interest indicates that the rally was not driven by new long entries but rather by short covering and passive position closures. BTC funding rates have turned negative, meaning shorts are now paying to hold positions.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards a "technical correction after leverage clearing" rather than a trend reversal. Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, showing institutions are still systematically reducing positions.
Next, watch the previous high at 83,800: a volume-backed hold above this level would validate the rebound; if pressure returns, the nature of this rebound as a position reduction will be confirmed. The direction may be revealed earlier than most expect. $BTC #September CPI announcement imminent, Harker says further rate hikes still needed $BTC Dot plot shows 4.1%, the speaker says more hikes.
▪️ September dot plot median 3.8% → 4.1%, unanimous 12-0 vote to raise rates by 25bp
▪️ SEP pushes return to 2% to 2029, core PCE revised up to 3.4%
▪️ CPI announced 10/14 20:30, August reading CPI 3.4%, core month-on-month 0.3%
▪️ CME shows 78.4% probability of no rate hike at 10/27–28 meeting
▪️ Concurrent 10Y at 5.36%, 30Y at 5.73%, highest since 2002
The divergence is not about how tough the speaker sounds, but that the "dot plot median" and the "speaker's tone" are not the same thing.
The dot plot is the combined result of 19 voters, reflecting the committee's view on year-end rates; the speech is an individual statement, which can be interpreted as more hawkish. What is truly priced in is the former—CME's 78.4% no hike indicates the market treats the rate meeting as an uncertain variable. CPI is the only number not yet factored into this pricing.
Direction suggests wait-and-see — if CPI is below expectations, rate hike bets will fade; if above expectations, the long end will move up another notch. Costs dropped by 82%, but I’m actually panicking
Researchers have reduced the estimated computational cost of dedicated quantum-secure Bitcoin transactions by 82%, down to $59.
The potential risk exposure is huge.
According to a study by Glassnode, about 6.04 million Bitcoins (30.2% of the then-issued Bitcoin supply) have public keys visible on-chain.
In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum attacker could derive private keys from the exposed public keys and take control of the associated cryptocurrencies.
My thought is: what used to seem impossible is now being seriously pursued.
What’s more troublesome is something else.
Every time you transfer your coins, it’s like hanging your house keys online.
About one-third of all Bitcoins worldwide are already in this state.
And the new solution only protects those that have never been exposed.
So the dividing line isn’t about cost, but whether you acted early enough.
The good news is, changing to a new address can be done today, almost for free.
The bad news is, the attack has no deadline, but the risk is always present.
Don’t mistake the absence of incidents for safety; quantum security doesn’t mean it’s impenetrable.
It means it hasn’t been broken yet.
Those who act early can sleep well.
$59, one step closer than what I wrote before.BTC staged a classic "short squeeze counterattack" in the past hour. It briefly fell below $81,000 in the morning, causing nearly 170,000 liquidations, but then the price strongly rebounded to around $83,800.
The core driving force behind this rebound was short covering, not new capital inflows. In the past 4 hours of liquidations, short positions accounted for over 90%. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of as much as $681 million in a single week, with institutions reducing positions during the rebound.
In the short term, watch the resistance at the previous high of $83,800. If it fails to break out with volume, it will likely retest support at $83,000. The real decisive factor will be tomorrow night's CPI data—if inflation exceeds expectations, this rebound may be just a flash in the pan. $BTC $BTC More short-term liquidations of short positions occurred in the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, indicating that this rapid rebound primarily swept out the shorts. Looking at the 24-hour timeframe, long position liquidations reached 110 million, significantly higher than the 53.119 million in short position liquidations.
In simple terms: short-term rallies harvested shorts, but over the full-day larger cycle, longs are still being heavily liquidated. The market oscillates back and forth, washing out both longs and shorts in turn. This kind of market easily triggers stop losses on both sides, so positions must be kept light. #September CPI announcement imminent, Hamaak says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Semiconductor sector sees concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6% 【Under negative ETH funding rate, who is placing the 2523 buy order to support the bottom?】
Just after the US stock market opened, an abnormal signal appeared in the ETH order book.
What has changed with ETH? The funding rate is negative (-0.00064%), shorts are paying to hold positions, but buy orders occupy 58% of the order book, with a large 250 ETH order placed at 2523.83.
Why is this worth attention? Over the past 10 days, ETH spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, indicating institutional withdrawal; however, on the futures order book, someone is absorbing at the lower level. These two forces are moving in opposite directions.
Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards "passive defense under crowded shorts" rather than active bullishness. A negative funding rate means short positions are concentrated, and if the price does not fall, there is a possibility of a short squeeze.
Next, watch two signals: whether 2520 (MA20) can hold, and whether ETF outflows converge. If it doesn't hold, the support order may just be a buffer; if it holds, the story is just beginning. $ETH