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#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight
The main theme is growth slowdown; advertising is an important long-term "new highlight," but in the short term, it is not enough to reverse the slowdown trend. SNDK at $1275, do you dare to catch it?
SNDK at 1275, the weekend perpetual contract has already hit the previous short target, but the underlying stock hasn't opened yet. On Monday, if it opens lower, will you catch the falling knife or get buried?
The perpetual contract has reached the previous short target zone, and the Nasdaq underlying stock hasn't opened for confirmation. In the short term, it's halfway through oversold territory; in the mid-term, it's still a deep correction within a major bull market. Before the October 29 earnings report, leverage must be reduced.
First point: Changxin Memory produces DRAM, SanDisk makes NAND, so the target is wrong.
From October 9-12, Changxin Memory announced progress on 4F² DRAM, aiming to launch server memory by year-end. The memory sector was collectively hit; SanDisk dropped 6% on 10/12 and continued to fall afterward.
The NAND price increase slope is slowing. Last quarter revenue was 8.97 billion, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, two-thirds of which came from price hikes, pushing gross margin to 84.6%. Next quarter guidance changed to "shipment volume + moderate price increases," meaning price hikes are no longer the sole driver.
AI capital expenditure buyers are starting to run out of money. New cloud bonds like CoreWeave yield 15%-16%, and the market is asking: can they still borrow money to buy flash memory?
The market never hits you because "you're wrong," but because "you're not good enough."
Second point: 1270 is someone else's profit-taking zone, not your bottom-fishing zone.
Previous short targets: first 1400, then 1270. The first target has been hit; the second target is right underfoot now.
From 10/16 to 10/17, long liquidations far exceeded shorts, and leverage has been washed out once. Funding rates have flattened near zero—this is not a position with "a big chunk of short fuel" left.
Opening new shorts now? The risk-reward ratio is terrible. 1270 is where others take profits; chasing shorts here is just carrying the coffin for the bears.
Weekly RSI is 49, not fully washed out yet. The October 29 earnings report is a bomb; if gross margin falls from 85%, 1270 won't hold, next support is 1130, and deeper looks at 1000.
Third point: For the October 29 earnings, the focus isn't "whether there's profit," but "whether gross margin turns."
Company guidance: revenue 10.3-10.8 billion, adjusted gross margin 83%-85%, EPS 44-46 cents. Market expects revenue 10.6 billion, EPS 46.2 cents. Last quarter actual EPS was 39.25, about 12% above expectations.
If gross margin falls below 83%, or management admits NAND prices have flattened or declined quarter-over-quarter—1270 won't hold, next support 1130, then 1000.
If revenue and gross margin hit the high end of guidance and price hikes continue—once 1410 is reclaimed, the previous short target becomes a short squeeze starting point, with upside to 1500.
Long-short showdown, you decide:
On one side:
1275 is near 50% retracement at 1247, previous short target reached
Daily/4-hour RSI below 30, funding rate near zero
Underlying stock up about 790% in the past year, mid-term logic intact: Kioxia partnership, BiCS8, AI high-bandwidth flash
Analyst target price range about 1400–3600, lower bound still above current price
On the other side:
Daily moving averages in bearish alignment, price below MA7 (~1410), MA25 (~1630), MA99 (~1550)
Weekly RSI about 49, not fully washed out, more like the first meaningful correction in the main uptrend
NAND price increase slope slowing, gross margin at historical highs
October 29 earnings is a bomb, high interest rates suppress valuation and AI buyer financing
Market cap about 188 billion, PE about 17–19x, but static PE for cyclical stocks is not a safety cushion
17x PE is not a safety cushion. Cyclical stocks are cheap relative to super profits, but when super profits reverse, 17x can be cut further.
Trading strategy:
1. Do not open new shorts at current price.
1270 is others' profit-taking zone. Shorts should wait for a failed rebound: heavy volume upper shadows at 1360–1410, or a rally to 1470–1500 then pushed down. Stop loss about 2% above that rebound high. Targets first 1270, then 1215; if daily close breaks below 1210, then look to 1130.
2. For rebounds, only trade two patterns, not "feeling oversold."
If price pulls back to 1215–1245 with lower shadows and no new lows, buy lightly. Stop loss if close or 4-hour chart breaks below 1208 consecutively. First partial sell at 1305, second at 1360, remaining only after breaking above 1410 to reach 1470.
Or if 4-hour close breaks above 1310 and pullback doesn't break it, buy again. This confirms longs, not bottom-fishing. Stop loss below 1270.
Buying directly now, position size should be small: space to 1305 is about the same as space to 1208, risk-reward is average.
3. Reduce directional leverage before earnings.
After October 27, reduce to 1–2x or go flat. After market close on October 29, if gross margin is below 83%, or management admits NAND prices have flattened or declined quarter-over-quarter, 1270 won't hold, next support 1130, then 1000. If revenue and gross margin hit the high end of guidance and price hikes continue, once 1410 is reclaimed, previous short target becomes short squeeze start, upside to 1500.
4. Set strict invalidation lines.
If daily close is below 1210, 50% retracement fails, all rebound longs are invalidated, only rebound shorts remain. If daily close is above 1410 and holds, short-term bearish structure breaks, no more shorting on rallies.
Weekly RSI 49 tells you: this is not the bottom, it's halfway up the mountain.
1275 tells you: previous short target reached, but bulls haven't confirmed yet.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $BILL dropped 10 points, mainly due to dual pressure from macro factors and the sector, not individual negative news.
First, it focuses on zero-knowledge identity verification, a sector combining AI and compliance. Currently, leading projects in this sector are valued above $2 billion, while BILL's circulating market cap is only $108 million. Its valuation itself isn't expensive, but the problem is it won't launch until May 2026. Its historical peak was $0.22, and now it has dropped 97%, with heavy trapped positions. Every rebound faces selling pressure from early trapped holders.
Second, today's market volume shrank, and altcoins already have poor liquidity. A 10-point drop for a small cap with only 2.4 billion circulating supply is actually the result of normal large-holder selling.$APR The worst hit today isn't those liquidated, but the foolish brothers who believed in the "MEV infrastructure" story of APR and rushed in. It dropped 81% in 14 days, 84% in 30 days, nearly a 10x plunge from its all-time high. This isn't a correction; it's outright robbery by the project team.
Last year, 80% of the tokens were snatched by 5,800 related wallets during the airdrop, which hasn't been resolved to this day. Now all the selling pressure comes from these witch wallets slowly dumping, placing sell orders nonstop every day. You say it has technology? Monad's testnet has been dragging on for half a year without launching the mainnet, no proper applications at all, just hype to support the price.
At the current 0.027 level, don't even think about bottom fishing; taking the baton here is like catching a flying knife. Unless the project team locks all the tokens held by the witch wallets, this token will keep sliding down to zero. Those who bought before, don't play dead; cutting losses now still leaves some money to live on. Don't wait until it drops to 0.01 to cry for help.$BTC has rebounded from below $80,000, but a glaring divergence lies ahead: mainstream assets have recovered from their declines, while most altcoins remain weak. This is not a simple "oversold rebound" scenario, but rather a question of whether capital is willing to spread out from $BTC. The most common market mistake is equating a rebound with a broad rally—the real answer lies in capital flows, not in the extent of price drops. The key word for this narrative is "transmission," not "bottom fishing." Stabilizing $BTC only solves the confidence issue, not the liquidity allocation problem. So I don’t focus on the biggest losers list, but on three hard signals. 🟢 First, whether $BTC’s market dominance can decline for three consecutive days while the price remains stable. This indicates capital starting to flow out from the leader to the risk curve, the most direct evidence of rotation. 🔵 Second, whether the $ETH/BTC daily chart can close higher for two consecutive days accompanied by increased volume. $ETH is the beta anchor of the altcoin sector; its relative strength against $BTC means risk appetite is truly rising, not just isolated performances by individual coins. 🟡 Third, whether the target altcoin’s 24-hour volume exceeds 1.5 times its previous 7-day average volume and its price breaks above the recent 7-day high. Only volume and price rising together count as a valid breakout; price spikes alone do not constitute a signal. The corresponding operational framework is clear: if all three signals appear simultaneously, you can build small positions in batches with 20%–30% of planned capital; if only one or two appear, continue observing and do not chase the rally; if $BTC breaks below the previous low again, then棋盘刚进中局，对手先推一尊重炮：九月生产者物价同比6.3%、环比1.3%，核心分项双双越线；消费者物价3.7%再压预期。表面看是通胀先手，实则是一步逼着全场重算变例的战术组合——热数据把“十月是否加二十五个基点”的悬念顶到台面，联储主席沃什却拒绝预判，未给十月行动信号，戴利与古尔斯比也按兵不动。盘口随即兑子：十月加息押注掉到约15%。这不是将军声，是等招。
真正的棋不看单步吃子，而看兵形和子力协调。通胀数据是王翼悬兵，利率路径是背后那条长斜线；联储不说话，等于把先手藏进残局。十五个百分点像半口气，不足以定胜负，却足以让杠杆仓位连夜调整。若把热数据当弃子，联储换的是时间；市场若把沉默当通路兵，便容易漏算长将。$xTSM 的联动也不是单线：热通胀先压估值，政策不确认再抬波动率，代币化美股吃的是美股贝塔与链上流动性双通道。宏观、流动性、风险偏好三子归边，任何一侧弱格都会放大回撤。
我的判定：这盘棋没有明确的将军声，只有谁先伸手的问题；谁把十五个百分点当胜势，谁就在残局里先露王。#USCPIAndPPITopForecasts #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
• Full-year EPS estimate for 2026: about $1.74
• Actual non-GAAP EPS for the first half: about $0.45
• Implies the second half needs to contribute about $1.29, averaging over $0.60 per quarter
This implies that the Q3 consensus estimate is very likely in the $0.55–0.65 range, significantly above the $0.43 threshold.七百六十三亿新台币的单季净利，本质上是一份隐蔽工程验收单——地面上你看到的是光洁的幕墙，真正撑住这栋楼的，是埋在地下、没有任何人愿意拍照的那几十根灌注桩。
做过超高层的人都懂一个基本原则：立面可以反复改，核心筒一步都不能挪。两纳米制程只占晶圆收入百分之八，这是核心筒里截面最小的那根钢骨——面积占比微乎其微，却决定了整栋楼最终能盖到多少层。先进制程合计七成九，属于主体结构已经封顶的部分，高度基本确定。剩下的成熟制程则是裙楼商业，负责养现金流，不负责决定天际线。谁把裙楼当成主楼来卖，谁的图纸就该退回会审。
我更在意的是荷载传递路径。终端算力订单从云侧一路传到晶圆代工，再传到设备、材料、封装测试——这条链上任何一处节点偷工减料，整栋建筑就是危楼。同比接近五成的营收增幅如果来自加杠杆式的抢工，那叫赶工期，不叫增长；这份数据说的是混凝土按标号一层层浇上去、养护期一天没省。营收涨五成、净利涨近七成，意味着结构效率在提升，说明这栋楼在往上加层时，用钢量反而更省了。
再看那个挂钩美股的代币化标的。把一栋楼切成一千份卖出去，产权凭证印得再精美，也不改变它究竟值多少钱——估值锚从来不在凭证上，在地基里。份额化只是幕墙系统，它提高的是流动性，提高不了建筑本身的抗震等级。把幕墙当承重墙用，是行业里最经典的结构性误判。
加密世界的通病是普遍先画立面、后补结构。白皮书是效果图，社区是景观绿化，做市商是临时围挡。真正决定一栋楼能站多久的，是那些没人愿意翻看的钢筋间距、混凝土试块报告和沉降观测记录——放到这里，就是制程良率、产能爬坡曲线和资本开支节奏。需求端再热，桩基打不到持力层，盖得越快塌得越早。
而这份单季成绩单，是少数几栋真正做过静载试验、埋了沉降监测点的建筑，它已经把地下部分做完了。
至于那些还在靠效果图招商的项目，沉降观测点其实早就埋好了，只是没有人去读数。 #tsmcq3recordprofit气压表针在法兰克福上空突然下压——德意志银行准备在数周内为比特币和以太坊打开机构托管舱门，这不是暖锋过境，而是一股夹着监管高气压、合规切变与机构需求的对流冷空气正压向欧洲海岸。
路透十月十六日的信号很清楚：德国境内机构与公司客户先进入窗口，多币种稳定币也在排队，二〇二七年还要向亚洲伸展，并叠加稳定币兑换、代币化存款与数字债券。渣打面向阿联酋合资格专业投资者提供比特币、以太坊交易与稳定币托管，纽约梅隆也在扩欧洲托管。云图上看，这不是单点雷暴，而是一条横跨法兰克福、伦敦、阿布扎比的锋面云带；问题是，锋面能否按时登陆，登陆后能否形成托管资产的累计降水，而不是只打几声干雷。
托管不是把币锁进保险柜那么简单，它像建一座气象站：牌照是观测资质，私钥管理是气压传感器，反洗钱与审计是雷达校准，结算通道是数据回传链路。任何一环出现逆温层，机构需求这块对流有效位能就只会堆在天上，落不成持续流入的地面降水。数周窗口意味着模式预报已进入短临阶段，集合预报的分歧不在需求端，而在合规雷暴、运营切变和跨链结算的能见度。从气压梯度看，机构客户已在场外等待，但托管资产不是消息发布即自动堆积；它需要合格托管人、冷热钱包隔离、保险覆盖、审计频率与跨司法辖区通行证同时满足，才会形成稳定云系。亚洲二〇二七年的扩张更像延伸期预报，概率圆还很大。
再看美股代币化标的 $xDELL，它处在同一条气压槽里：托管基础设施若放晴，它先感受到的是风切变和成交量回波，不是全天晴朗；若欧洲托管窗口延迟，代币化股票的流动性云系也会被切离主锋面。若把美股代币化标的当作地面观测站，它的成交量与溢价就是风向袋，托管消息只能改变短时阵风，无法单独改变季节风。消息标题能给温度，托管资产才是降水量，持续流入则要看后续每个观测时次是否稳定。我的判定只写到雷达回波最后一帧：发行窗口的雷暴没扫清之前，所谓机构需求只是一团高悬的积雨云。 #deutschebankcustody$XAU Gold dipped slightly by 0.14% today, closing at 4165 USD, with domestic prices at 899 CNY/gram. The highest price this January was 5608 USD, now down nearly 30%, but it has recently started to stabilize.
The logic for gold is very clear now: crude oil rises → inflation rises → risk aversion intensifies, making gold a natural "war hedge tool." If the Middle East situation escalates, gold returning above 4500 is not difficult; if a deal is reached before the election, gold will at most pull back to 4000, and below 4000 is an absolute buying zone. Gold bracelets are now sold out in Shuibei, indicating very strong private demand for gold and solid bottom support. Weekend Market Review｜Liquidation Data Tells a Different Story — Don’t Be Misled by “Greed” Let’s begin with a market reality that many traders may be overlooking. The Fear & Greed Index may still be hovering around neutral or greed, but liquidation data tells a different story. Over the past 24 hours, total crypto liquidations reached $317 million, including $251 million in long positions. Around midnight, $BTC briefly dropped below $81,000 before rebounding toward $81,400 within roughly 30 m$ETH Bitcoin rose 0.58%, but it actually fell 0.85%? The 2419 level is really a "hopeless case that can't be helped, an iron bottom that can't be broken." Look at the large holders' long-short ratio of 2.7, indicating the main force has long secretly built a full position, just waiting for the final push.
What are retail investors doing? Cutting losses just because crude oil rose 2 points. Think about it, in the past three years, every time the ETH/BTC rate fell below 0.03, it at least increased 1.5 times within half a year. Now the rate is exactly 0.03, and you cut losses to hand chips to the main force, who will laugh in their sleep at night. 2350 is the final bottom $ONDO
ONDO dropped over 2%. What is the difference between the demand for real asset products and token demand?
Spot price fell about 2.60% in 24 hours, ranging from 0.4283 to 0.459, with the price positioned at about 33% within the range.
The appeal of yield products may be influenced by interest rates, while governance tokens depend on fee allocation and genuine buy-side demand. The scale of assets on-chain cannot be directly equated to token revenue, and macro themes should not overlook value transmission.
If the upper boundary is reclaimed and sustained, it can improve the recovery outlook; if the lower boundary is breached, the narrative premium should be lowered. A large product space is not proof that the price will necessarily rebound in the short term.$SNDK 这周是真惨，从 1394 一路砸到 1299，单周跌近 10%，存储板块集体挨刀。
周末更刺激——凌晨流动性真空，一笔 200 万美元的多单被强平，十分钟内连锁爆仓 5159 万美元，SNDK 相关合约直接被打穿。 这本质是流动性狩猎，不是基本面转向。
周一美股开盘大概率低开消化周末跌幅，关键看 1280 能否守住。守住可能技术性反抽到 1330-1350 压力区，守不住则继续探底。
操作上别急着抄底，等开盘半小时方向确认。反弹无量就逢高减仓，放量站回 1350 再考虑介入。这类代币化标的杠杆高、深度薄，仓位一定控好。$MU $BTC Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
Many people only see the 222 million long liquidations in 24 hours and think the bears have completely dominated, but there is a critical hidden risk in the market! There are as many as 546 million short positions stacked above ETH, with liquidation size three times that of the long positions below, equivalent to a giant short minefield.
This round of decline is due to rising oil prices, warming inflation data, and interest rate hike expectations suppressing the market. BTC lost the 81,000 level, and ETH fell below 2,400. Yesterday, ETF funds slightly flowed out, combined with the market falling into extreme panic sentiment, causing short-term longs to be heavily shaken out.
But the market hides reversal signals: contract leverage has been fully digested, ETH open interest has dropped sharply, and BTC has tested and held support multiple times at the 81,000 level. Currently, shorts are heavily crowded, and the overly crowded short positions will instead become the core driving force for the subsequent rally.
Focus closely on the ETH 2,500-2,510 range; once it stabilizes above this level, it will trigger mass short liquidations and quickly lead to a short squeeze. The current high leverage risk is extremely high, so avoid blindly chasing shorts and be sure to control the pace with light positions.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after listing will be revealed $BTC $ETH $ZEC The weekend market was very quiet, but there was a lot of divergence: some opened their first long position on Sandisk at 1220, betting on a rebound on Monday; others simply stayed out of the market, waiting for the trend to reveal itself. Which side are you on? First, let's lay out the facts: Sandisk has been steadily declining to around 1215, Ethereum has been falling along, and Bitcoin hasn't held up either. Such a sharp drop indicates three things are happening: ① Deleveraging is not over yet. Rapid declines usually come with a chain of liquidations—long positions forcibly closed → more sell orders dumped → triggering the next batch of forced liquidations. This negative feedback loop must run its course; any "bottom fishing" before it ends is like catching a flying knife. The signal to watch for is simple: funding rates turn positive and liquidation volumes shrink, then it calms down. ② Looking by asset, the driving factors are completely different, don't mix them up: Sandisk-type storage stocks: driven by NAND spot prices, original manufacturer capacity strategies, AI server capital expenditure expectations, plus profit-taking around earnings windows. Semiconductors have high beta; when the Nasdaq trembles, they fall three times as much. Ethereum: influenced by ETF capital flows, on-chain staking and unlocking sell pressure, ecosystem activity; essentially still a beta asset—if Bitcoin doesn't stabilize, it's hard for Ethereum to bottom independently. Bitcoin: a macro-priced asset. The US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and the Fed's interest rate path matter more than any on-chain metric; plus ETF net inflows and outflows, which are the most tangible marginal buy/sell pressure currently. ③ "Falling a lot" doesn't mean "bottomed out." Bottoms are signaled by a combination of factors: volume contraction, extreme panic indicators, smart money returning, and a shift in macro expectations—missing any one of these could mean it's just a pause. Are these signals confirmed now? At least I don't see them. So the smart move isn't to guess the bottom but to wait for the right side: a new trend emerges, a pullback holds, then open positions. Paying a few more points in cost is exchanged for certainty. Three scenarios for Monday: a gap up to catch up (weekend news is positive, shorts cover); a gap down to continue falling (worsening macro data or ETF outflows); or a gap up then down to oscillate (the most frustrating, neither bulls nor bears win). Personally, I don't bet on direction; position size is more important than opinion. What do you think will happen Monday? Leave your views and reasons in the comments, let's wait for the open to verify together. For market observation only, not investment advice. Contracts carry risk; position management takes priority over all judgments. Arthur Hayes said on X that he does not bet on which way the AI sell-off will go; he only trades the inevitable multi-trillion dollar bailout, going long on $BTC and $ETH. The chain of events is AI bubble burst, US stock market pullback, central bank easing, benefiting BTC. Data-wise, on the day CoreWeave dropped 15% intraday, $BTC did not follow the drop; the last nearly 10 daily closes have been between 81500 and 83800, with the current price around 81950. What is overlooked is the time lag: before the bailout, there must be a sufficiently deep decline, during which BTC usually moves in the same direction as the Nasdaq. Hayes called for 126000 by the end of the year at the beginning of the month, which equals a 54% rise in two and a half months. My judgment is that it won't reach that by year-end; once 81000 is broken, deleveraging will come first, with easing to follow. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC Bitcoin is currently in a "defensive" stance, with 82,000 acting as resistance rather than a floor.
As of October 18, BTC is trading around $82,012, fluctuating between $81,000 and $82,000. The 82,000 level is not a solid support but a strong short-term resistance—analysts clearly point out that only a volume-driven breakout above this level could accelerate the rally toward $90,000.
There appears to be support between $80,000 and $81,500, but Glassnode's analysis shows that after buy orders near 80,000 were absorbed, new defensive orders have shifted to $78,000, and the "thickness" below 80,000 is thinning. The capital flow is also unfavorable: from October 12 to 16, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $228 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading outflows. Marginal buying support at the 80,000 level in Q3 is weakening. On the macro side, a 6.3% surge in PPI has reignited fears of rate hikes, and BTC's rebound near 82,000 is characterized as a "limited" technical correction.
Conclusion: Bitcoin is currently "defending" rather than "attacking." The prolonged failure to break 82,000, combined with ETF outflows and macro pressure, lowers the probability of a firm hold, increasing the risk of testing 78,000 downward. Only a volume-driven recovery above the dense chip area of 84,000–85,000 could shift the short-term structure from defense to offense.
$FIL: Decentralized storage begins to directly challenge traditional cloud services! 🔥
Can you believe it?
Fil One offers a price of: 10TB storage for only $59.90 per month
In comparison, AWS S3's published list price, based on the same 10TB, totals about $1121/month for storage and data transfer fees
The price gap between the two deserves the entire storage industry's attention
🔹 S3 compatibility: lowers the barriers for enterprise migration and development
🔹 $5.99/TB/month: offers more competitive storage pricing
🔹 Zero egress fees: reduces cost concerns for data reading and transfer
What truly deserves attention here is not just the low price but that Filecoin is trying to move beyond simply providing storage capacity to offering practical storage services aimed at enterprises
In the AI era, datasets, model weights, and training records all need storage. If Filecoin can continuously attract enterprise customers and form stable paid demand, then its value narrative has the opportunity to shift from infrastructure building to real commercial applications.
Of course, low price does not guarantee victory. Enterprises will ultimately consider performance, reliability, service guarantees, and migration costs. Subsequent real customer growth and revenue performance are the key.
I pay attention to $FIL not just because of the price but because decentralized storage can truly achieve commercial scale.
The prices in the order are for the provided data. AWS actual costs depend on region, request volume, storage type, and data transfer volume. The comparison criteria must remain consistent #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
台积电净利率51.1%，2nm首季就贡献8%晶圆收入；ASML新机卖了113台，订单排到2030年。数字挑不出毛病。
但费半连跌七天，两家财报后股价照跌。光刻机交期拖到两三年后，云厂商自由现金流却在转负，融资成本一抬，设备排队越长，市场越怕这轮扩产是最后一棒。AI题材也得拆开算，TAO先问产出
$TAO 所在网络里，不同子网提供计算、推理、存储或预测等服务，参与者按机制获得激励。它并不是一个只靠“AI很热”就能解释清楚的项目。
我更在意这些产出有没有人持续愿意付费。全行业增加AI投入，不能直接算成这个网络的收入，业务联系得一段段核对。
近一个月价格基本持平，也提醒我别把题材热度当成已经兑现的收益。我的态度是挑业务细节研究，少给行业标签估价。
$WLD 的项目组成包括World ID和World App，身份验证方向不能直接照搬GPU需求增长的逻辑。评价它，我会先问真实使用和代币之间怎么联系。
$AVAX 当前30天涨幅约4.3%，一周回落约7.7%。这份成绩适合重新计算阶段强弱，我暂时不会沿用之前大幅上涨留下的印象。#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight After the U.S. stock market closed on October 20, this company is set to release its Q3 earnings report. Personally, I hold a cautiously optimistic view.
The company's guidance indicates revenue of 12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%, with an operating margin of 33.2%.
My judgment: revenue will most likely be close to the guidance, and there is a slight chance profits will exceed expectations. The key focus of this earnings report is advertising monetization.
One point to note is that there was a large tax expense in the same period last year, which suppressed the profit margin at that time.
Therefore, the year-over-year increase in profit margin this year needs to be analyzed carefully to distinguish whether the business itself improved or if the one-time factor from last year is no longer present.
Whether the stock price can rise after the earnings release depends on more than just meeting this quarter's performance.
The real determinants of the market reaction are two things: the actual growth rate of advertising revenue and whether the management's Q4 guidance can exceed market expectations.
These two areas are the sources of potential upside surprises. We will wait for the post-market earnings results to see the outcome.9 家上市公司反对股票代币化：资产上链，不代表发行人认可
据报道，Broadcom、UnitedHealth、Verizon 等 9 家公司反对自己的股票以代币形式在 OKXICE 上交易。这一平台与 OKX、洲际交易所（ICE）有关，此前计划推出 63 只美国股票的代币化交易产品。相关报道还称，这 9 家公司的合计市值超过 2 万亿美元。
这件事值得关注的地方，不只是有多少家公司反对，而是它揭示了代币化股票面临的核心矛盾：
技术上可以创建与股票挂钩的代币，不代表发行人认可这种产品，更不代表代币持有者自动拥有真实股票的全部权利。
目前，股票代币化可能采用不同结构。
一种模式是由第三方持有底层股票，再发行对应的链上凭证；另一种可能是发行追踪股票价格的衍生产品。两者看起来都能让用户在链上获得股票价格敞口，但法律性质、底层资产保障和持有人权利可能完全不同。每周日摊账。这一周的预测台账，14 笔已判：9 对 5 错。 上半周是真顺。10-02 到 10-11 午盘，7 笔全中。那会儿觉得这套“数据→概率→证伪”还挺灵。 然后 CPI 来了。10-14 公布的 9 月 CPI，整体 3.7%、核心 2.6%，全超预期。加息概率直接定价到 50%，纳指单日 -1.9%，一周干下来 -5.5%，18 个月最惨的一周。我的台账从 10-11 晚上起连着被证伪 4 笔，#10 到 #13，一个没跑掉；#17 早盘偏弱也被作废触发。5 笔错的，一笔不遮。 认。账本摊开比遮着强。#14 倒是又中了一笔，10-12 夜盘说放量破 82,567 看 81,600，结果砸得更深。昨晚夜盘 #23 也对了：反转确认线 82,600 全天没碰到，“反转没戏”盖章，81,000 上方守住继续磨。今天午盘新立了 #24：盒子 80,813–82,072 磨，破 80,813 看 8 万整数关开战，正在走，下周夜盘对账。 本周盘面几件事值得记一笔。BTC 那根 84,362 的假突破（10-12），回头看是真扎心。ETH 跌破 2400，10-17 直接冲上广场热榜第Eden is still hot, but TIA has already pulled back from the weekend peak.
Spot on Sunday was about $0.63, down around 15% in 24h (multiple sources around $0.63). Derivatives: 24h liquidations about $2.8 million, longs account for about 82%; liquidation intensity relative to open interest is about 2%—not light for a small coin.
By comparison: After Eden (AI agent chain, fees paid in TIA) launched on Friday, OKX perpetuals traded about 7 times the usual daily volume; in the past year, among similar "volume surge + single-day rally" events, 7 out of 8 times the price was lower a week later, median about -15%. This time, from the Saturday early session peak of about $0.77, it has retraced about 17%.
OKX fees are currently slightly negative (shorts pay), not like the market is still feverishly chasing the rally.
I think this is a contrast of "narrative just landing, leverage first retreating," not a bottom-fishing signal.
Next observation point: whether it can hold back above around $0.69 near Friday's close this week; if it breaks below the weekend low again and long liquidations continue to dominate, this "weekly candle still green" buffer will fail.
Do you trust Eden's gas fee narrative more, or the historical retracements after volume-driven rallies?
$TIA $BTC
#CryptoMarket #TIA#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 🚨 Silver may be brewing a major market move!
On one hand, silver prices are approaching a key resistance level; on the other, global silver inventories are reportedly facing a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year.
The question is: Can silver supply really keep up with demand?
Here are some key points to watch:
🥈 Limited growth in mine supply: Rising silver prices do not necessarily mean production can increase rapidly.
⛏️ Byproduct nature: A significant portion of silver comes from copper, lead, zinc, and other metal mines. Even if silver prices rise, as long as the mining of these other metals does not expand significantly, silver supply may not grow in tandem.
📈 Supply-demand gap may support prices: If industrial demand remains strong while mine supply and recycling cannot fill the gap in time, silver prices could receive long-term support.
⚠️ But volatility risks cannot be ignored: Macroeconomic factors, the US dollar trend, real interest rates, and investment capital flows could cause sharp pullbacks during silver’s price rally.
My view is: The long-term supply-demand dynamics of silver are worth studying, but price increases cannot be assumed solely based on supply shortages.
If silver breaks out, will risk assets like $BTC also be affected by macro capital rotation?
Next, focus on resistance breakouts, inventory changes, and actual demand.👀Big Brother Maji's position sheet tonight, the most eye-catching is not that the $BTC short made profits again, but that the $HYPE short is still holding on with an unrealized loss of 3.3052 million U 😮💨. Total position is 58.4799 million U, three lines, three scenarios.
$BTC short: 40X full position, -243.96 BTC, opened at 84070, unrealized profit 628,200 U, funding fee collected 78,200 U. BTC is grinding near 77000, 200-day moving average pressing down, CPI and PPI both exploded, raising rate hike expectations, bears have the wind; but perpetual shorts are crowded, if the moving average truly breaks, beware of a short squeeze ⚠️.
$ETH long: 25X full position, 7223.81 ETH, opened at 2500.18, current price just above 2100, unrealized loss 540,000 U, funding fee paid 25,600 U. Oil price stuck at 110 dollars, liquidation at 1511.85, not safe, it's a dull knife cutting flesh 📉.
$HYPE short: 5X full position, -268,300 HYPE, opened at 66.24, current price 47, unrealized loss 3.3052 million U, but funding fee collected 1.0556 million U to sustain. ETF entry, shorts liquidated 30.6 million U in 24 hours, open interest 2.5 billion, short squeeze is fierce; 5X full position has very thin tolerance, liquidation at 100.47 seems far, but after a 46% rise in a week, "far" is fragile 💥.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed $FIL perpetual contract 50x short, opening average price 1.147, mark price 1.0636, floating profit 363.55%. The market shows a one-sided bearish crushing trend.
Fundamentals reach a historic turning point: On October 15, Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation's six-year linear unlock officially ended, reducing the annual new issuance by about 75%, eliminating the largest structural selling pressure source. Tomorrow (October 19), the Solstice upgrade (FIP-0118) will activate, shifting block rewards toward real paying storage customers, with the unallocated portion to be burned. Additionally, FIL was selected for Grayscale's decentralized AI fund, bringing institutional allocation expectations.
However, after the positive news is realized, the market chooses to move downward. Technically, it broke below the 1.11 Fibonacci support and the daily moving average pivot point at 1.06, RSI dropped to 36, with bearish momentum dominating. On the macro side, continuous ETF outflows and geopolitical tensions suppress altcoin risk appetite. On the futures side, smart money short positions far exceed long positions, and leveraged longs are being liquidated.
Currently, 1.05 is the key long-short dividing line. The trend has not shown a stop-fall signal, but the 50x leverage floating profit is too high, requiring high vigilance for short squeeze and oversold rebound catalyzed by tomorrow's upgrade. Operationally, it is recommended to take profits in batches to lock in gains, leaving a small position to speculate on a break below 1.05. $BTC $ETH #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Weekend Review｜Liquidation Data Correction, Don't Be Fooled by "Greed"
Let's start with a counterintuitive fact.
You might see the Fear and Greed Index still hovering around "Greed" or "Neutral," but in the past 24 hours, the real forced liquidations were on the long side. The entire network saw 317 million in liquidations, with longs accounting for 251 million. $BTC spiked below 81,000 at midnight, then pulled back to 81,400 within half an hour, with a bunch of buy orders nibbling at the low end of the order book—this is not a reversal, it's a liquidation fakeout, a big fund using panic to rotate positions.
$ETH was even more brutal. A certain whale had 187 million in long positions; 4,890 $ETH were directly liquidated at 2,356, with a position value of 11.74 million. After liquidation, the open interest (OI) barely dropped; $BTC futures OI remains around 52.6 billion, shrinking only 0.14%. Leverage hasn't died out; it's just a new batch of traders holding positions.
So don't rush to call the bottom. 80,000 is a psychological barrier, but 77,855 is the real liquidation danger zone—breaking below there triggers mainstream CEX cumulative long liquidation intensity up to 731 million. Weekend liquidity is thin, so the cost of spikes is extremely low; heavy position holders might have a sleepless night tonight.
On the news front, three things are more important than candlesticks.
First, ETFs are bleeding, but whales are buying. $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 82.4 million in a single day, $ETH ETFs net outflow of 69.7 million, and $SOL ETFs have been bleeding for over nine consecutive days, with a record weekly outflow of 24.8 million. But on-chain sell pressure exhaustion indicators have hit historical extremes, and institutional large-scale buying hasn't stopped. Weak hands are retreating, diamond hands are stepping in; these two forces are locked in a tug-of-war at the 80,000 level—this is the fundamental reason prices are moving sideways.
Second, whales are rotating positions, but it's not the romantic narrative of "abandoning $BTC for $ETH." Some institutions sold 160 million $BTC over five days to buy 53,000 $ETH, but at the same time, top whales accepted losses of 13.45 million to liquidate 15,000 $ETH, creating heavy selling pressure above. Smart money isn't blindly rushing into $ETH; they're structuring. $ETH current price is around 2,438, with the 50-day EMA pressing at 2,493 and RSI only at 39, showing very weak rebound strength. If it can't break 2,493, everything is just consolidation; the 2,426 sell wall is not just for show.
Third, $SOL's lifeline is not in its own hands. Current price is around 104, down 13.7% since October 1. 100 dollars is a psychological and weekly 50 EMA confluence support; the 99–101 range is more critical than a simple round number. But on October 21, the Alpenglow upgrade will launch the mainnet, with final confirmation time reduced from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds—this is the only short-term trump card. However, if $BTC breaks below 80,000 first, $SOL likely won't hold the hundred-dollar mark, and the upgrade narrative will be worthless against liquidity.
Before Monday's open, just watch these three levels closely.
$BTC: 77,855 is the liquidation lifeline; 84,000–85,000 is a dense capital iron ceiling. The longer it grinds at 81,000, the more it looks like waiting for direction rather than choosing one. About 53% of invested capital is concentrated between 84,000–85,000; without volume, it won't break through.
$ETH: 2,426 is the sell wall; 2,493 is the 50-day EMA hard resistance. Don't rush to buy below 2,400; until 2,493 is firmly broken, whales' "rotation" has nothing to do with retail traders.
$SOL: 100–101 is the bottom line; 104 is just a buffer zone. If ETF outflows continue before the upgrade, the buffer above 100 won't last long.
Finally, a word on sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is near neutral at 53, but the capital side is cold, and the market is defensive—$BTC market dominance is approaching 60%, altcoins are exposed, and derivatives trading volume dropped 32% in a single day. When sentiment and capital diverge, it's easiest to see "looks like a rise, but chasing leads to being trapped." Treat the weekend rebound as short covering first; the real direction will be clearer after Monday's US stock market open and ETF data release.
Keep positions light and stop losses tight. Staying alive is more important than any narrative.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies #US CPI and PPI exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report post-IPO to be unveiled $STRK current price 0.0621, 50x short position floating profit +1420.33% (opened at 0.08674).
Core drivers:
① Token unlock: 127 million STRK tokens enter circulation, about 1.7% of total supply, continuous mechanical selling pressure
② Governance expectation gap: L1 vote only authorizes research, not actual migration, positive news fully priced in
③ On-chain retreat: active addresses down 63% from peak, ecosystem heat cooling down
④ Derivatives crash: futures capital outflow of 249 million, long liquidations of 2 million USD
Assessment: Fourfold bearish factors resonate, clear bearish trend. But floating profit of 1420% is already extremely generous, risk-reward ratio no longer favorable.
Capital management advice: take profits in batches, keep a small position to speculate around 0.055; if rebound holds above 0.065, consider exiting all positions. Do not chase shorts, do not bottom fish. $ETH $ZEC #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises SOL is simply more straightforward than HYPE.
At 05:00 AM, it also made a move at 101.15, with the volume bar being the largest of the day. But it didn’t linger below 103; in the afternoon, it steadily pushed the lows higher. At 19:00, the 1H candle closed with volume and a bullish candle, just reclaiming the MA20 (103.64), current price 104.17.
The difference is this: HYPE grinds sideways, SOL moves upward rhythmically. The lows rose step by step from 103.0 → 103.3 → 103.5, with volume climbing from 20,000 to 52,000. This is a recovery, not a rebound.
But the daily high at 104.76 is just 0.6 points above, and beyond that lies the trapped positions from the 10-17 range. The situation is that it just reclaimed MA20 but hasn’t proven it can hold yet.
Conditions fixed:
If it pulls back to 103.90~104.00 without breaking and closes above 104.30 with volume → go long, stop loss at 103.60, target 105.40. Risk 0.6 to gain 1.2, odds 2.0.
If it closes below 103.60 with volume → go short, stop loss at 104.20, target 102.20. Risk 0.6 to gain 1.4, odds 2.3.
Price spent most of today below 103.60; it’s not strong, just the only reference point available now. Don’t hold if it really breaks.
$SOL
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)#AI might push GDP to 44 trillion, can investments break even?
Got hit this morning: BTC dropped from 81,600 to 80,750, then rebounded to 82,000 — down 1,000 dollars, then up 1,200 dollars. ETH fell from 2,420 to 2,360, then back to 2,410.
At the same time, AI perpetual futures also crashed: SOXL -5.45%, MU -3.42%. US stock spot market is closed, but they run 24/7 — weekend pricing power has shifted to perpetual futures.
Why on the weekend? Trading volume dropped nearly 39%, shallow market means a single spike is enough.
Difference from yesterday's "liquidation waterfall": a waterfall has direction, it's a chain of leveraged forced liquidations pushing prices down; a flash crash has no direction, just a spike that recovers in minutes, not a signal. Don't treat it as a breakdown.
My view: 80,000 held and bounced back to 82,000, there are buyers below. But funding rates are still positive (annualized about 11%), longs haven't fully exited, and exchanges still have a net inflow of nearly 500 BTC. The real answer will come at Monday's open — "Black Monday" is being loudly called, but some say extreme retail pessimism is often a contrarian indicator, so I’m not betting on direction.
(Personal observation, not investment advice. Manage your positions well.)Today is the weekend, and the trends of the three meme coins are also weak, all falling, but their drivers are quite different:
$DOGE has a total network volume of 500 million and 1 billion open contracts today, making it the blue chip among memes.
But it does have quite a few problems: DOGE has unlimited issuance, releasing 5 billion coins per year, still 89% below its ATH. Actually, no one is hyping it anymore, and consensus has weakened considerably.
$PEPE is purely driven by retail sentiment. Today, sellers account for 65.6% versus buyers at 34.4%, volume is shrinking, and RSI is 41, below the 50-day moving average.
It is currently distributing at a high level, making it difficult to rise in the short term.
$TRUMP can basically be treated as a run-away asset, 97.6% below its ATH. Even worse is the unlocking sword hanging over it: 80% of the tokens are held by entities related to Trump, unlocking slowly over 3 years, which is definitely going to crush the market.
Today RVOL is only 0.49, meaning hardly anyone is trading; it’s just a slow bleed downward.
DOGE is a flexible position; entering now is still relatively low; PEPE still has a chance to rise if sentiment returns, but TRUMP can basically be abandoned.The most abnormal thing about $CRV isn't the drop, it's that no one is buying. The total trading volume barely exceeds two million dollars for the whole day, shrinking to half the usual volume. Its name is officially on Grayscale's new fund list, yet the market doesn't even give a decent reaction. Think about it, the news hits hard, and the price still moves downwards — this isn't bad news, it's that no one cares. It's now hanging just above 0.33; if the 0.28 to 0.30 range doesn't hold, this kind of asset will just linger there to teach you a lesson. I don't touch these kinds of tokens that are just playing with themselves; watching it makes me feel lonely for it. $CRV $BTC Bitcoin has started a large negative premium. Is this a signal of institutional selling or buying? See the chart ⬇️ Bitcoin currently shows consecutive negative premium bars, indicating that retail investors are strongly selling or cutting losses. So the question is, in this situation, should you clear your position and wait or buy the dip? Without a doubt, this is a buy signal! Because if you compare carefully, whenever such a deep negative premium occurs, it is mostly near the bottom and is a relatively good buying opportunity. Then wait for the coin price to rebound to the green positive premium zone, where retail investors are overbought and chasing the rise; that is when you should gradually sell. This data is not 100% accurate, but it holds true 80-90% of the time. So the current strategy is very clear: buy on dips, it is not yet time to sell, wait for the positive premium or RSI to be overbought.
$ETH $BTC At 5 a.m., someone liquidated a $2 million long position, and ten minutes later, five markets crashed simultaneously, with $51.59 million liquidated.
On October 18 at 05:21, the SanDisk order book was thinnest when a $400,000 sell order was dumped, expanding to $1.03 million one second later. About 10 addresses concentrated short positions against SanDisk and Micron within 1.8 seconds, with a second wave following in sync.
It’s not about who is shorting, but the order book being too thin: forced liquidations turn into sell orders, pushing prices lower and triggering more forced liquidations. Long positions liquidated totaled $38.06 million, nearly 70%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin was still slightly up above $80,000, unrelated to macro factors, only related to liquidity vacuum. Don’t treat late-night order books as normal market conditions. $BTC#TSMCQ3RecordProfit El Salvador is hoarding 7,800 BTC, with a floating profit of 350%! Is this smart money or just pride?
Macro data is hitting record highs every day, the Federal Reserve is hawkish daily, and retail investors are panicking. But at the national level, someone is quietly making a fortune.
El Salvador's national Bitcoin reserves have surpassed 7,800 BTC, with a market value of about $618 million.
The most impressive part is its cost: the average holding cost is only about $17,839 per BTC. Even though BTC is fluctuating around $80,000 now, their paper profit still exceeds 350%. Do you expect them to panic sell because of soaring CPI and FOMC rate hikes? Absolutely not.
Looking into their accumulation history is very interesting:
In September 2021, they announced BTC as legal tender and bought the first batch of 400 BTC. Since then, they have been dollar-cost averaging, buying 1 BTC daily, occasionally making large purchases. In September 2026, they even made a single purchase of $100 million to buy 1,090 BTC.
Even when the IMF came to audit, they had no complaints—because after June 2025, all new BTC came from private donations, perfectly avoiding the loan agreement clause that prohibits using government resources to buy BTC. The IMF could only watch helplessly.
But there is a very practical logic behind this:
El Salvador's legal tender payment requirement was canceled long ago, the official wallet is being phased out, and crypto remittances account for only a meager 0.71%. Simply put, BTC here is not a payment tool but a glaring reserve asset on the national balance sheet. By a single vote, 38 to 37, France has tightened the tax exemption channel for "coin-to-stablecoin" exchanges.
The core is: even if exchanging coins for U does not involve cashing out, as long as there is a profit on the books, it may be subject to about 31.4% capital gains tax. Previously, it was common to use U as a transit point for back-and-forth switching, but in Europe this calculation will have to be redone. There will be a full vote on October 20, and there may be changes in between, but the direction is already very clear—the compliance cost is rising, and exchanging for U is no longer a zero-cost safe haven.
The market is not strong either. Bitcoin is grinding near 81855, repeatedly testing 82050 to 82400 but unable to break through. The short-term defense line below is 80477, and further down 79732 is the previous low. RSI(6) has reached 67.3, reducing the cost-effectiveness of chasing highs. In this rhythm, don't put all your positions on a single expected outcome.
$BTC $ETH $AVA全球数字资产投资产品单周净流出4.34亿美元，而美国现货ETF的失血结构更值得玩味：$BTC 流出约2.25亿美元，$ETH 却高达3.2亿美元——市值更小的资产承受了更大的赎回压力。这不是一次均匀的风险收缩，而是一场带有明显选择性的资金撤退。💰 先看最刺眼的分化。$ETH 已连续三个交易日录得净流出，单周3.2亿美元的缺口远超 $BTC，说明机构对第二大资产的边际信心松动得更快。$BTC 单日净流出8240万美元，但同一周内曾出现1.76亿美元净流入、随后又转为2.61亿美元净流出的剧烈摆动——这种来回拉扯恰恰暴露了买盘的不稳定：不是没人接，而是没人愿意持续接。$SOL 单周净流出约2552万美元，$XRP 约212万美元，资金回流的拐点都还没出现。📉 市场最容易犯的错误，是把价格反弹当成资金回归。真正的验证信号只有一个：$BTC 和 $ETH 的现货ETF能否从净流出连续切换为净流入。只有新钱愿意主动承接抛压，短期反弹才有机会沉淀为趋势；否则场内资金来回搬家，涨上去也只是浮沙上的楼。🔍 一句话的论点：这轮调整的本质不是价格问题，而是承接问题——谁在买，比买多少更重要。下周盯住Netflix's growth is slowing, and its advertising business has become a new focus. The valuation logic of streaming media is shifting from user numbers to monetization efficiency, with risk appetite switching in sync with the crypto market; I judge that BTC remains weak and oscillating in the short term, with rebounds lacking confirmation from incremental funds. The four-hour structure has fallen 5.17% from the high point, while the one-hour is only 2.30% above the low, indicating a divergence where short-term weakness is less than long-term weakness, showing that bullish resistance is fading. The buy-sell ratio of 0.19 exposes dominant selling pressure, and the funding rate of 0.0048% shows leveraged longs are still paying to hold positions, meaning sentiment has not cleared. Strategically, lightly short at a rebound to 81930, stop loss at 82510, target 79865; if it sharply falls near 79760, reverse to long, stop loss 79180, target 81240, with single position not exceeding 5%, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. —
$BTC#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus
$BTC Market Analysis | Don’t just focus on the sideways K-line, first check the liquidation heatmap
Think there’s no movement during sideways trading? Don’t rush to open positions. The main players have long used the liquidation heatmap as a sniper scope. This weekend’s market, K-lines can be deceptive, liquidity distribution is more straightforward.
$ETH is currently oscillating around 2,401. Above, between 2,465—2,470, there is a very thick yellow highlight band, indicating dense short stop-losses; support is at 2,350 below. The short-term upward “magnetic effect” is stronger; if the main players want to take profits with less effort, it’s more cost-effective to spike upwards and trigger short liquidations.
$SOL is currently at 103.3. Near 105 above, there is a clear liquidation wall; as long as the price breaks 104.5, shorts above are very likely to be instantly liquidated; below 100 there is some long liquidity, but the density is less than above.
$BTC is currently at 81,450, with a relatively balanced structure. The heavy resistance zone is near 82,000 above, and there is also considerable liquidity between 80,500—80,000 below. In the short term, the main players are more likely to test upwards first, sweep out the blood-stained chips, then choose a direction.
My view: It feels like the calm before the storm. Retail traders opening positions here are easily targeted for directional liquidation, both long and short. Don’t guess the direction; wait for the main players to act first—either sweep the short liquidity above or break through the stop-losses below, then follow the momentum.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? The Fear and Greed Index dropped from 63 to 55, but BTC still rose 0.21% that day. Price stabilization and sentiment decline—what does this divergence indicate? First, the news. Three sets of data: On the sentiment side, the Fear and Greed Index fell from 63 to 55 (previous value 63); on the price side, BTC was at $81,528.4, +0.21% in 24 hours, -1.84% over the past week, with a 20-day range of 79,775.1 to 87,238.3; on the capital side, the latest daily net inflow for the US spot ETF was $16.2 million (turned positive), with a 5-day net outflow of $323.7 million and a 10-day net outflow of $848.1 million. External environment: US Dollar Index 101.78 (-0.22%), Gold 4,186.7 (+0.40%), S&P 500 7,659.44 (-1.09%). Next, looking at capital impact. When the sentiment index falls but the price does not, it usually means two things: first, selling pressure is indeed weakening (otherwise the price would fall with sentiment); second, new buying has not yet formed (otherwise sentiment would be pulled up). This "price stable, sentiment weak" combination often shows in capital data as: daily outflow narrowing or turning positive, but 5-day and 10-day still net outflows—today's data fits this exactly. Implications for BTC: This is a typical feature of the early repair phase, not a confirmed reversal. The repair sequence usually is: price stops falling first, then sentiment bottoms, and finally capital turns positive and drives the rise. We are now between the first and second stages: price stop falling has appeared, sentiment is still declining,#SpaceX's first full quarterly financial report after going public will be revealed. Some people use Tesla's drop after its space flight to judge this technology, but honestly, that's inaccurate since the overall market also fell sharply. The key point is still the upcoming financial report. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Compared to tech stocks, Bitcoin is quite resilient; it's clearly a trend misalignment. After all, AI was bullish a few months ago, while Bitcoin has been in a bear market. Unless it steadily breaks below 80,000, the expectation of a bear-to-bull reversal won't be considered.#SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report after going public will be revealed
For this quarter's SpaceX earnings, Wall Street expects revenue around $12.9 billion, compared to only $7.8 billion last quarter. The extra revenue mainly comes from AI, basically renting out computing power to other companies. Contracts signed last quarter are counted fully into this quarter's revenue for the first time, so the surge in AI revenue is well-founded. But the market is already betting on it doubling to about $6.47 billion, and outsiders can't see contract details, so a discrepancy of around a billion up or down is normal.
Fortunately, Starlink is the most stable, with 12 million users and still gaining about 500,000 more each month. With it as a foundation, this Q3 earnings report shouldn't look too bad. 🤩
What worries me is that they are spending money too fast; last quarter alone, capital expenditures were $18.4 billion. Even if revenue looks good, if management says they need to spend a lot more next year, the stock price could very likely drop.
So, my final judgment is that revenue will most likely meet expectations, with a chance to slightly exceed. Surpassing $13.5 billion would be a real beat; below $12.9 billion is mostly due to slower AI revenue collection. After last quarter's earnings report, the stock rose more than 20 points within a week, so this time it could also see big swings.
Personal research, not investment advice. 🦧
#OKX US stock earnings season