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Tesla 2026 Q3 Bearish Report
Q3 deliveries of 486,500 units exceeded expectations but declined 2.1% year-over-year and only increased 1.3% quarter-over-quarter. The outperformance mainly relied on the Model 3 facelift and end-of-quarter discounts as short-term impulses, not a structural improvement in demand. Model 3/Y accounted for 98.3% of deliveries, with product concentration reaching a dangerous level.
Profit quality is the core crack. Market expectations for Q3 net profit are only $923 million, a sharp 32.8% year-over-year drop; signs appeared in Q2: revenue grew 25.5%, but operating profit fell 56.9%, with AI R&D and equity incentives consuming incremental income. Deliveries rose, profits collapsed, and scale effects are reversing into cost leverage.
FSD option value continues to decay. China's FSD approval promised for "Q3" has essentially fallen through, with no meaningful revenue expected in Q3, possibly not until 2027 at the earliest; European approval is also delayed, unable to buffer pressure on automotive gross margins. Cybertruck further confirms pipeline gaps: other models delivered only 8,295 units in Q3, a 48% year-over-year plunge, annualized about 30,000 units, only 13% of the original target.
The current approximately 335x TTM P/E ratio is built on unproven narratives of Robotaxi and humanoid robots. As automotive profits collapse, energy storage margins normalize, and FSD deferrals lengthen, valuation downward re-rating faces minimal resistance.
Downside risks: regulatory breakthroughs for Robotaxi, unexpected FSD approval in China. But the Q3 window is insufficient to offset the worsening profit slope.
#Tesla deliveries exceed expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus 🌡️ September CPI year-over-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), month-over-month 0.6%. Core CPI year-over-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%), last month was 2.4%, month-over-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%).
⛽ Gasoline month-over-month +9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase, year-over-year +34.2%. Energy index year-over-year +20.4%.
🏠 Housing month-over-month +0.4%, year-over-year 3.2%; airfares month-over-month +1.2%; food month-over-month flat.
🧮 Core services excluding housing month-over-month: July 0.35%, August 0.41%, September 0.34% (Macrobond).
💵 After the data release, the US dollar index briefly rose about 0.6%, BTC declined.
Gasoline pushed up the overall numbers, but core data also exceeded expectations, with housing and airfares rising as well. One month of data does not indicate a trend, and I might be wrong. BTC declined after the CPI release; I’m not sure if this data has already been fully priced in.
📍 BTC is currently around $81,600:
$82,300: intense liquidation level
$80,000: level tested on October 15
Do you think the Federal Reserve will pay more attention to the overall 3.7% figure or the 2.6% core figure?
$BTC $ETH #USCPIAndPPITopForecasts #CanBTCHold80K Returning to the #Bitcoin market, the previous analysis of ETF and crypto market data has already reached a conclusion: Friday's capital flow does not support a strong rebound.
On the chart, effective support was found near 80,000 on the hourly level, followed by a strong rebound, but the rebound did not break through the 4-hour resistance level, namely the 4-hour MA200-MA120.
In other words, if the rebound fails to break the resistance, the price may continue to oscillate between 80,000 and 83,000, and if the price tests the 80,000 support multiple times, it will continuously consume the support buy orders.
The so-called oscillation range is the process where the price continuously absorbs selling pressure at the top of the range and buying support at the bottom. Whether it can break through depends on the battle between buyers and sellers within the range. Since Friday's ETF data is not optimistic, I believe that if the support is tested multiple times and macro pressures still exist, the possibility of a breakdown is actually greater.
Conversely, if the price breaks through the resistance and holds, and short-term selling pressure is exhausted, then a continued rebound to around 84,000 or even higher can be expected! #US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? $SOL today ≈104 USD, 24h slight drop 0.1%–1.7%, the decline has narrowed among major coins, representing a narrow consolidation following the overall market, not an independent trend.
Capital flow is polarized: Spot ETF turned negative cumulatively in October, with a single-day net outflow of 12.668 million and a monthly net outflow of 24.8 million, indicating institutional withdrawal; however, the perpetual funding rate annualized has reached -7%, one of the few major coins turning negative—leveraged longs are basically cleared, reducing the space for further liquidation.
Technical: 4-hour moving averages show a bearish alignment, EMA50 pressing at 114; support at 100 (round number + weekly 50MA resonance), below that 97.4; resistance at 103.7–104.4, then 107.
News: Alpenglow activated on October 21 at 22:50, finality reduced from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, but the positive effect was priced in early, and removing voting from on-chain will cause the on-chain TPS to "shrink" by about 70%, do not misinterpret this as a chain crash. Macro CPI at 3.7% exceeded expectations, 10Y yield at 5.07%, BTC market dominance rose to 59.3%, altcoins are being drained.
Conclusion: First watch if BTC can hold 80,000; if 100 holds, maintain consolidation, if broken open 97–95.
$BTC $ETH #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises Under the surgical light, the most dangerous thing is never the gushing bleeding, but the myocardium silently and quietly losing blood.
On October 15, MSCI implemented new rules targeting non-operating companies, which is equivalent to a preoperative assessment of Strategy and Metaplanet. The conclusion is: these two hearts have structural defects and could be removed from the extracorporeal circulation at any time. Strategy raised objections on October 16, arguing that the accounting basis is unclear, which is like the patient's family questioning the diagnostic criteria, but angiography will not stop showing stenosis just because you don't accept it. JPMorgan estimates that if Strategy is removed, about $2.8 billion in passive funds will be forced to exit. This money is not a liquidity leak but an acute hemorrhage. Strategy argues that index funds only hold about 3.1%, which is a collateral circulation that can still compensate, but compensation does not mean recovery.
The real lesion to watch is not the 3.1% figure, but the three coronary arteries of valuation supply, financing channels, and Bitcoin purchases. Once passive selling is triggered, valuation perfusion pressure drops, financing windows shrink, and eventually even the terminal blood vessel of BTC purchasing power will suffer from insufficient perfusion. The final list on November 11 is the surgical consent form, and after the close on November 30 is the time point of vascular occlusion. Metaplanet has not yet formally responded, which is equivalent to the intraoperative informed consent form still having an empty signature line.
Market linkage is not a complication but the pressure transmission of the same circulatory system. The rules read the accounting caliber, like reading the ejection fraction on an echocardiogram, but what really determines life or death is whether the cash flow can jump back on its own before the incision is closed.
The myocardial ischemic lesion has already formed, waiting for the family to sign. #strategyopposesmsciThis week, crypto financing reached $58.2 million, with the largest single amount of $30 million coming from the Sui Foundation.
11 projects shared $58.2 million, with DATA Network (formerly Story Protocol) taking $30 million, accounting for 51.5%.
The remaining $28.2 million was divided among 10 projects, averaging $2.82 million each.
The money comes from this chain because DATA is moving from its own chain to Sui, with Walrus as the default storage layer.
The foundation is paying for the migration itself.
I think this is not a market recovery in financing, but a change in financing structure.
Only $28.2 million remains market-driven for the week, split among ten projects. The foundation's $30 million requires no valuation discussion or roadshow.
For projects, this is the cheapest money; for the ecosystem, it is the most expensive money—it buys migration, not retention.
SUI closed at 0.9573, down 26.0% from 1.2939 on September 27. It is only 0.4% above the failure threshold.
The market did not pay for this $30 million.
I am not chasing. I will watch two things: whether DATA’s real storage and calls on Sui increase after migration; and whether the foundation will provide another subsidy.
If a second subsidy is provided, this subsidy-for-migration model is validated; if DATA grows organically, that judgment is void.
Failure condition: SUI falls below 0.9531 (October 17 low) and breaks down; only a rebound to 1.13 would mean market acceptance.
Which side are you betting on: subsidy fostering real demand, or cooling off after migration?
$SUI
#SuiEcosystem The first full-building load test after the main structure topping out is the real moment that decides whether it can stand — on the evening of October 20th, that supertall named SpaceX must deliver its first complete completion verification report since going public.
I never look at renderings when making plans. Starlink is the core tube already poured in place; whether the concrete grade is sufficient and the reinforcement ratio is solid, the cash flow is like the reading on a rebound hammer—the hardness that bounces back when pressed doesn’t lie. The orbital resources of the satellite network are its shear walls; once formed, latecomers won’t even have a place to insert rebar. Starship is that large-span cantilever; it looks magnificent on paper, but cantilever structures fear two things most: construction periods being indefinitely extended and budgets continuously destabilizing in the wind. It hasn’t been stripped of formwork yet, so only on that day will we know if the formwork contains dense self-compacting concrete or honeycombed rough surfaces. No matter how beautiful the cantilever truss is, it relies on the core tube to provide reaction force.
Profitability is the foundation. Among all the ways skyscrapers fail, settlement is the quietest — no loud noises, just curtain wall glass cracking piece by piece. Technology can create any shape, but commercial conversion rates determine how thick the bearing layer beneath the building really is; if the bearing capacity is insufficient, a high floor area ratio is just a number on paper.
Now look at that US stock token. It’s not an independent building; it’s an attached structure hanging on the main building by a steel corridor. The corridor has no independent foundation; its seismic rating and inter-story deformation capacity are entirely determined by the stiffness of the parent structure, with zero autonomy. When the main building sways in the wind, the corridor shakes first; when the main building settles, the expansion joints crack first. The so-called market linkage is essentially the stress transfer path — the acceleration at the top of the main building is amplified step by step and finally crashes onto the corridor’s node plates. Corridor holders always think they bought a house, but actually bought a tie rod, and one without fireproof coating.
What’s more interesting is the timing of acceptance. This quarterly report must answer three structural questions simultaneously: can the formed parts continue to generate rent, how much rebar still needs to be burned in the unformed parts, and whether the inter-story drift angle of the whole building under wind load exceeds limits. If any one of these three data points fails, the main building might still hold up due to redundancy, but the corridor will crack first.
True veterans do only one thing on the day of completion acceptance: knock. Knock on load-bearing walls and listen for hollow sounds. Where the sound is muffled, it’s hollow inside — and hollowness is a construction joint that can never be repaired. #SpaceXQ3Earnings $ETH market has entered an adjustment phase, currently focusing on the asset's resistance to decline 🛡️
In this round of correction, my observation focus has shifted from who has stronger explosive power to who has smaller retracement.
$BTC weekly decline is about 2.9%, basically sideways in the past month. Although the upward performance is not outstanding, the defensive resilience is commendable 👍. I will continue to pay close attention, but it is important to distinguish: resistance to decline does not equal confirmation of a new upward trend; the overall rhythm is still more sideways.
$ETH fell 4.8% in a week, 6.6% in the past month, short-term market is weak 😐. Being optimistic about long-term value does not mean it is suitable to enter now. I will reduce operation frequency and avoid simply betting on catching up; the heavier the position held, the greater the risk.
$SOL weekly decline is 7.3%, current price $103.7. Approaching the hundred-dollar mark does not mean there is an immediate opportunity. If participating in the recovery market, strictly allocate positions according to rebound logic; do not buy after weakening and forcibly convert to long-term holding 🙂.
$RE weekly decline is 11.5%, monthly decline 12.6%, the weak pattern has not changed 📉. It can be continuously tracked and studied, but position control in trading must be strict; lower price does not mean more opportunities.
On the news front, Deutsche Bank plans to custody BTC and ETH, combined with institutional capital outflows, reflecting that the digital asset market is accelerating institutional acceptance on one side while funds remain cautious 🔍. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high $BTC $SOL On the pressure map from October 16, two centers were drawn at the same moment: one was the "warm high pressure" formed after the White House signed the waiver, and the other was the "thermal convection" formed by the flames rising from the Black Sea coastal refinery. The two air masses collided head-on, and neither could immediately swallow the other.
Only a few items were removed from the waiver list, and the high tariffs under the "Graham Act" were slightly loosened, but the rest of the sanctions remained unchanged—this is like a cold front pushing through only half a province, with the frontline rain band still hanging overhead. The US-Russia diesel contract has been signed on paper, but the oil tankers are still waiting for a delivery window, waiting for a window not interrupted by drones.
Diesel is the true low vortex in this weather process. The International Energy Agency's judgment is firm: the diesel shortage is not a three-to-five-day shower, but a long-term drought that could last until 2027, with soil moisture already cracked. Any positive revision to this low vortex will be immediately amplified by capital into a precipitation signal.
But whether the precipitation cloud system can reach the ground depends on three conditions being met simultaneously.
First, refining capacity. Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries are localized strong convection—small in scale, short-lived, but vertical to the top, with the landing point entirely dependent on sounding. Production losses cannot currently be quantified; our observation stations are too few, and there are obvious gaps on the echo map. Before quantitative data is completed, any inference about supply recovery is just extrapolation.
Second, transportation costs. This is the near-surface friction layer; all downward airflow to this layer will be weakened. Shipping schedules, insurance, detours, and port queues will all grind away half the momentum of the "oil price downward" front in advance.
Third, political noise. Zelensky's opposing statements are a persistent southward jet stream delivering moisture, which could reorganize the already weakened system at any time. Trump said oil prices might fall soon, which is more like artificial cloud seeding—talk can change expectations but cannot change the energy balance of the atmosphere itself.
At the linkage level, the role of targets like $xHOOD is equivalent to a sounding balloon. It does not create storms but is the first to sense wind shear. Partial sanction relaxation means a slight increase in visibility for risk appetite; diesel shortages mean the low-level inversion on the inflation side still suppresses. When the balloon rises, it will hit a significant wind shear at some altitude—sudden direction changes and sharp speed increases, manifesting as intense emotional swings.
What really needs monitoring is not the word "waiver" but three sets of real-time data: the actual processing volume of Russian refineries, the slope of the diesel cracking spread, and the trend of shipping insurance rates. These three data sets determine whether this process is a "front passage" or "just a passing shower."
In ensemble forecasts, member divergence remains large. Some members predict clear skies all the way, while others regenerate cyclones within 48 hours. Until the divergence converges, any conclusion is an extrapolation beyond reality.
Visibility is less than 200 meters, runway lights are fully on, and the tower is not clearing departures. #usrussiasanctionswaiver$SPCX Why did it drop 10% in a week
Five reasons:
1. Overall valuation cut in the AI sector
2. Early October Apollo-led $40 billion financing to purchase Nvidia chips causing dilution concerns
3. FAA environmental assessment on Starship expansion
4. Competition and geopolitical rivalry
EU antitrust, plans to approve the 'Project Bromo' joint project, then Starlink service adjustments in the Eastern European conflict
5. Internal share reduction 【Saylor is drawing orange again, is there really a big $BTC order this time?】
Saylor posted "We've found more orange space again," and longtime followers know this most likely signals another BTC buying alert. But don't rush to follow just yet. Last week, Strategy only bought 250 BTC, spending $21.5 million, which is the smallest increase this year.
Strategy already holds 848,250 BTC with an average cost of about $75,444, but the recent buying pace has clearly slowed. The company is also repurchasing about $192.4 million of STRC preferred shares, spending nearly 9 times more on that than on buying coins.
Now BTC is struggling around $82,000, macro pressures haven't disappeared, and the risk of MSCI possibly removing Strategy from the index is also brewing.
I think Saylor continuing to buy is definitely a sign of long-term confidence, but the orange tweet is just a preview, not new funds arriving. Wait for the official announcement to see exactly how much was bought and where the money came from, then judge whether this whale is accelerating accumulation or just maintaining the pace.Behind $BTC's price fluctuations, popularity and trend are not the same
Let's put the conclusion first: This round of $BTC's price fluctuations is worth tracking, but it can only explain why attention is focused now, not directly answer what the next price move will be. $BTC current price is 81,181.65, 24h -0.50%. Separating events, market responses, and comment section opinions makes things much clearer.
The real order of impact usually doesn't happen all at once for everyone. Divide people into three groups: those who need to trade, deposit/withdraw, or use related functions face actual changes first; holders then face expectation changes; onlookers often see conclusions that have been relayed multiple times last. First find which group you belong to, which is more important than taking a long or short position first.
Put verifiable facts on the table: $BTC current price 81,181.65, 24h -0.50%, 24h range 80,819.66—82,295.47. 1-hour is weak, 4-hour is weak, trading participation is about 1.49 times the average volume of the last 20 bars. These numbers cannot predict results for anyone but can check if the market is truly continuing to respond.#SpaceXQ3Earnings I am still optimistic about SpaceX, but I will not buy any shares above 155.
On October 13, the stock closed down 4.21%, falling from 171.09 on October 5 to about 157.
This decline is not due to fundamentals: on Tuesday this week, the FAA approved the environmental impact assessment request that raised the maximum annual launches from the Starship base from 25 to 456, and annual landings to 912;
Falcon 9 completed its 35th commercial resupply mission to the International Space Station on Tuesday; and Morgan Stanley confirmed a price target of 300, saying it is "cheap Liquidity Hunting: How can a $2 million liquidation trigger $51.59 million in liquidations within ten minutes? In the early hours of October 18, the AI concept stock perpetual contracts experienced a textbook liquidity hunt. Tread.fi CEO DYJ's transaction timeline revealed the crash path: at 05:21:59 Beijing time, the first large active sell order appeared for SNDK on Binance, with a transaction amount of about $407,000 in that second, which expanded to $1.03 million the next second; MU began to show selling pressure almost simultaneously. Why could $2 million trigger a chain of liquidations? The core lies in the liquidity vacuum. At five in the morning, the order book depth was extremely thin; a $2 million liquidation might not even cause a ripple during normal hours, but at that moment, it became a signal flare. After the price broke through a key level, the automatic liquidation mechanism started forcibly closing long positions; the forcibly closed longs then became new sell orders, pushing the price even lower and triggering more liquidations. A perfect death spiral completed within ten minutes. Hyperliquid's synchronized short attack acted as an amplifier. After Binance triggered the fuse, about 10 addresses on Hyperliquid submitted IOC sell orders concentrated on $SNDK, SOXL, DRAM, $SKHX, $SKHY, and $MU within 1.8 seconds. DYJ emphasized that all these orders were for opening new short positions, not just reducing positions. This was not retail panic, but a group of people doing the same thing on the same targets at the same second. The first round ended $PONS is heading straight to 0.1, too much profit was taken early on, the whales won't support the pump.The weekend crash was such a mess, yet the bulls are still crazily adding positions. Are they really treating the DOGE whales like charity cases?
$DOGE is currently priced at 0.0778, with a long-short ratio stubbornly hitting 3.66! Open interest is still rising, indicating that retail investors haven't fled despite the drop and are frantically bottom-fishing. But the daily chart keeps sliding down relentlessly. The bulls are holding on hard, but if it slips just below 0.075, a chain liquidation will be absolutely brutal.
Looking at $PEPE, currently at 0.000003839, the long-short ratio is also absurdly high at 3.16. Funding rates occasionally turn negative, meaning retail investors are not only trapped but also paying to beg the whales not to dump. The buying momentum is weak and entirely propped up by faith.
The wildest is $DNA, priced at 0.2615. I just checked the historical funding rate trend and thought it was negative, but after verifying the real-time order book, the current funding rate is actually positive at 0.0050%, though the basis remains negative. Open interest has surged, indicating bulls are paying shorts to hold on! Plus, the long-short ratio data is currently unavailable (highly controlled), so entering this blind box setup is just being cannon fodder.
My logic is simple: these are all bull traps. Retail investors are extremely crowded, and the whales are washing out positions accordingly. Catching a falling knife now is pure charity. My current stance is to hold fire, keep my bullets ready, and wait for this wave of high-leverage chips to be completely washed out and for market data to return to a healthy structure before considering entry.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? 【$HYPE is being burned every day, but the price still hasn't gone up recently】
Hyperliquid bought and burned 11,340 HYPE in the past 24 hours at an average price of $78.55, spending about $890,000. A total of 49.63 million tokens have been burned, nearly 5% of the initial supply. This buyback mechanism is not just empty talk; it is a continuous implementation with real money.
The protocol allocates about 99% of the fees to the aid fund, which is used to continuously buy HYPE and permanently remove it. The more active the platform trading is, the more sustained buying support the token has.
However, HYPE is currently around $79, still nearly 20% down from the $98 high reached in September. Although burning continues, the price has not held the high level, indicating that buybacks are not a cure-all; the market is still recalculating future growth and valuation.
I am optimistic about this token economy supported by real fees, but I won’t chase just by looking at the burn amount. A single-day buyback of $890,000 has limited impact compared to HYPE’s valuation in the tens of billions of dollars. What to watch next is whether platform fees can continue to grow, whether buyback scale can expand, and whether the price can stabilize above $80 again.
Burning reduces supply, but whether the price can rise depends on whether buying pressure can overcome selling pressure. It now feels more like a phase of oscillation and game theory, not a stage of mindless chasing of gains. The weekly closing price of 83,000—can it really decide which direction to go next? I've been watching BTC's market over the past two days, and what concerns me most isn't whether it surges, but the two liquidity concentration zones above: 84,500 and 87,500. The original logic is very clear: if the weekly candle closes above 83,000 this week, the price has a chance to test these two levels. It sounds like an ordinary price point tip, but in the current rhythm, it actually implies something more subtle: the market isn't trading "already broken through" but is trading in advance on "whether the breakout can be confirmed." This is also a point I think is easily overlooked. The 84,500 and 87,500 lines aren't just randomly drawn; they are more like two magnets—when the price approaches, it tends to accelerate, but it also tends to reverse and realize profits after touching them. In other words, those chasing longs see space, while cautious traders see a profit-taking window. These two forces will collide in the same area. The weekly close and the volume after the breakout are the keys to verifying whether this magnet "pulls up" or "throws down." From the perspective of sector strength and weakness, I can better feel the temperature difference of risk appetite. If BTC holds above 83,000 and tests the upper area, ETH and some high-beta altcoins are usually more willing to follow, indicating that funds are willing to take a further step outward; but if it just spikes to 84,500 and then pulls back, sector strength will quickly return to a defensive stance, altcoinsSanDisk and Hynix both plunge: Not just isolated negative news, but a resonance of chip supply and the broader environment
Today, the storage sector was hit hard again, with SanDisk and Hynix both sharply declining simultaneously. Note: This is not just a stock-specific issue, but a result of weakening Nasdaq sentiment, drag from the Korean stock market, and loosening chip supply all combined.
From the market perspective, the two have diverged again:
- SanDisk (US stock) has a persistently high turnover rate, representing a highly speculative chip structure. It has high elasticity when rising, and when falling, selling pressure releases quickly. Previous "oversold recoveries" were mostly short-term speculative moves without forming a solid medium- to long-term buying base. Once external disturbances occur, it is easily the first to be hit.
- Hynix (Korean stock) is more affected by the overall weakness of the Korean market, with obvious passive selling. Previous brief rallies were more emotional recoveries rather than trend restarts.
On the macro level, US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy expectations still hang overhead, and the market is beginning to reassess whether AI-driven storage high growth can continue. Capital is cautiously withdrawing from the previously hot storage sector.
In summary:
Today's decline is not due to the disappearance of new major positives, but rather a "discounting of optimistic expectations." Currently, it can only be characterized as risk release after a high-level consolidation and should not be hastily seen as a bottom-fishing opportunity.
Going forward, focus on two things: first, whether the turnover rate shows a clear contraction (whether selling pressure is exhausted); second, whether key support levels hold. Until these two signals are clear, prioritize defense and avoid heavy positions betting on a reversal.$NFLX Netflix is set to release its Q3 earnings after the U.S. market closes on October 20. The company expects revenue of $12.86 billion, up approximately 12% year over year, with an operating margin of 33.2%. My outlook is cautiously optimistic: results could come close to expectations, with room for a modest earnings beat. Three things to watch: Advertising revenue: Is monetization accelerating? Profit margins: How much of the improvement reflects underlying business strength? Q4 guidance: W$OP
OP fell more than 6%. Why isn't a low-priced layer-2 token necessarily more resilient?
Spot price dropped about 6.50% in 24 hours, ranging from 0.12593 to 0.14086, with the price positioned at about 17% within this range.
A low price per unit does not mean a cheap market cap, and increased network usage does not necessarily fully translate into token demand. If supply and value attribution are not aligned, the sense of cheapness may mask the real selling pressure.
Only if the middle range is first reclaimed and then the upper boundary is broken can the recovery judgment have more basis; if the lower boundary continues to be breached, expectations for a catch-up rally should be reduced. One cannot infer that OP will definitely follow just because another asset in the same sector once surged.SpaceX's earnings report has not yet been released, but the market's real concern may not be profits, but the burn rate!
On October 20, SpaceX will announce its third-quarter results. What makes this earnings report worth watching is not just whether revenue can exceed expectations, but when the massive investments the company has made in AI computing power, Starlink, and Starship will turn into stable returns.
In the second quarter, SpaceX's revenue reached $7.8 billion, exceeding market expectations, but capital expenditures were as high as $18.4 billion. The growth is indeed impressive, but the scale of investment is also quite staggering. The company is simultaneously advancing satellite internet, rocket reuse, and AI infrastructure, with each business line requiring continuous investment.
This creates a contradiction: if investment continues to increase, future growth potential may be greater, but cash flow and return cycles will also be tested; if expansion slows down, the market may worry that the company is missing the window for AI computing power and space internet.
So for this earnings report, I am more focused on three questions: whether AI business revenue growth can continue, whether capital expenditures will continue to expand, and whether there are substantial breakthroughs in Starship commercialization progress.
Revenue exceeding expectations does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise. What really determines market sentiment may be management's explanation of future investments and returns.
Do you think SpaceX's current large-scale investments are about building competitive barriers in advance, or has capital expenditure grown so large that the growth story is under pressure? #SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report since going public will be revealed $SPCX # Deutsche Bank plans to custody BTC and ETH, accelerating digital asset business
[Deutsche Bank is entering BTC custody, why not push it hard?]
Deutsche Bank is preparing to launch institutional custody services for $BTC and $ETH in Germany, with plans to expand into Asia. Standard Chartered and BNY Mellon are also increasing their efforts; traditional banks are not just spectators this time—they are genuinely preparing to integrate crypto assets into their financial services.
Expanding custody services means the infrastructure for institutional coin holding is becoming more mature, but it does not mean banks are buying BTC with their own money. Clients handing over coins to banks for safekeeping and clients making new purchases are two completely different transactions.
Meanwhile, BTC is still struggling around $82,000. On October 16, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $82.4 million in a single day; institutional funds are not uniformly rushing in.
This is a long-term positive development, but it will not immediately reflect in the coin price. Deutsche Bank aims to profit from custody, settlement, and future tokenized finance businesses; BTC and ETH are just the entry points. Once the services officially launch and custody scale continues to grow, we can see if ETFs and spot funds follow. If in the end only banking business expands but the coin price lacks incremental buying, this positive news might just stay lively in the headlines for now.Platform coins fall less, but that doesn't mean they are more valuable
On the day the US stock market fell, crypto averaged a 3.42% drop.
The three platform coins only averaged a 1.3% drop.
How this number is calculated:
This is the result of averaging the declines of the three coins, not just one.
$OKB fell 1%, $BNB fell 1.2%, $HYPE dropped from 82.44 to 78.95.
Who is placing orders here:
There are buyback orders under the platform coins.
When the price drops, someone takes the orders, so the drop isn't deep.
But those taking the orders are selling off, not new buyers.
$BNB has already dropped 37% this year.
$HYPE has tried several times to break 83 but failed, indicating a batch of holders waiting to break even.
Buybacks can hold for a day, but not for a year.
Falling less and being able to hold on are two different things.
#Institutional funds continue to flow out, can BTC stabilize?
#$OKB $BNB Do you know who the top ten stablecoins by market cap are?
At first glance: BlackRock, PayPal, Ripple, and the Trump family are all in there.
At second glance: Together, they amount to less than one-fifth of the first place.
Let's start with the number one, Tether.
Founded in 2014, it hardly needs an introduction—you'll use it on any exchange.
Market cap of 183.4 billion, daily interest over $17 million.
Number two is Circle.
A US-listed company $CRCL, following a compliance route, mostly used by institutions.
72.7 billion, daily interest over $7 million.
Together, these two account for 90% of the top ten. The remaining eight share 10%.
Who are these eight?
Sky (formerly MakerDAO): one of the oldest in DeFi.
Ethena: hedges to earn funding fees.
World Liberty: the Trump family's.
Global Dollar: led by Paxos, with Robinhood and Kraken involved.
PayPal: needs no introduction.
Ripple: the company behind XRP.
BlackRock: a tokenized money market fund, strictly speaking not a stablecoin.
This is not a flourishing stablecoin market; it's a duopoly. And the newcomers have bigger names but smaller shares.
If even BlackRock and PayPal can't break into the top two—
What do you think the real barrier to entry in this field is? A very dangerous retail investor illusion has been popular in the market recently: "The AI bubble is about to burst, and once the US stock AI crashes, funds will flood into Bitcoin as a safe haven, causing BTC to take off directly." If you are holding this idea and preparing to go all-in with leverage to bottom-fish at the first sign of an AI crash, you will most likely perish in the most brutal liquidity liquidation before dawn. Ray Dalio recently issued a stern warning at the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore: this AI bubble is not reflected in stock market P/E ratios but in corporate balance sheets. Tech giants and computing power companies are using 10-year long-term debt to buy GPU chips that only last 2 to 3 years — this severe "debt maturity mismatch" is destined to trigger a credit contraction crisis. At the onset of a real credit crisis, Bitcoin has never been a "safe haven" but rather the market's best liquidity and easiest-to-cash-out "ATM (liquidity reserve)." When Wall Street institutions and AI-transitioning mining companies urgently need cash to cover holes, the first thing they do is dump BTC to exchange for dollars. The idea that "AI crashes, BTC surges" is directionally correct but fatally wrong in timing — Bitcoin must first endure a "violent liquidation bottom" caused by debt transmission, and only after the Federal Reserve is forced to launch an epic money printing due to "too big to fail" will the true "liquidity flood top" arrive. As pragmatic traders, we do not bet on vague narratives but focus on definitive signposts. To avoid the first wave of bloodletting liquidations, precisely build positions on the left side, and ride the next major liquidity-driven bull run, please consider the following:434 million funds withdrawn, tonight's decline was predicted early
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $317 million, with long positions liquidated at $251 million, accounting for nearly 80%
ETH once approached the 24-hour low of 2357, and the 25x ETH long position of the on-chain whale "Maji Big Brother" was forcibly liquidated at 2368, directly intensifying the market's bearish sentiment.
Tonight, both BTC and ETH fell, and many people asked why. The answer is actually in the data from the past week.
First, the aftereffects of CPI are still fermenting. September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations. The market's concern about the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates has not dissipated, and risk assets continue to be under pressure.
Second, ETF funds are running out. CoinShares data shows a net outflow of $434 million from digital asset investment products this week, and investor sentiment has clearly worsened after the CPI release.
Third, technical breakdown. After ETH fell below the psychological threshold of 2500, the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages turned bearish, triggering programmed sell orders.
My positions: ETH short position floating loss narrowed to -121%, but ETH long position floating loss is -754%, margin is urgent. If ETH falls below 2357 tonight, continue holding the short; if it stabilizes, consider closing the short to take profits.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Institutional funds continue to flow out, can BTC stabilize? $KO Observation: Rally ran ahead before positive news landed, KO's trend confirms capital game
Starting from a low of 87.33 around October 12, KO surged strongly to 94.97
Now the news that KFC has abandoned Pepsi and fully sided with Coca-Cola has completely spread, the timeline matches perfectly.
This is a typical case of running ahead of news.
The absolute victory in offline dining channels is a major positive for Coca-Cola's future revenue expectations.
But before the news was officially disclosed, the main upward wave on the chart had already completed, which is a typical capital information gap in traditional finance.
Currently, with macro liquidity tightening, capital naturally favors cash cow assets with strong channel barriers and defensive attributes.
The price is now consolidating at a high of 94.23, with the positive news already clear.
In this situation, early-positioned chips are very likely to be distributed at high levels riding the news heat.
Chasing highs requires extreme caution to avoid buying at the top.$NFLX Netflix's $12.5 billion cash flow target, can it be replicated every year?
The 2026 Q3 earnings report has not yet been released. Netflix's full-year free cash flow target is about $12.5 billion, including the impact of a one-time termination fee. Production payments are often made upfront and amortized later, so profits and cash flow may not be synchronized. Next, it depends on whether content investment can bring retention and revenue; if cash flow still grows after excluding one-time factors, the growth will be more solid. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Both CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, the Fed's pivot may be delayed #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
With this data released, many people's first reaction is that inflation is more stubborn than expected.
CPI and PPI rising together indicates that not only consumer prices but also upstream production prices are increasing; inflation has not steadily declined as the market previously anticipated.
Previously, the market was betting on rate cuts, with many funds preemptively betting on lower interest rates, leading to a rebound in growth assets. But this data directly shattered those optimistic expectations.
Strong inflation resilience means the Fed is unlikely to ease easily; the timing of rate cuts will likely be postponed, and there remains a possibility of further rate hikes within the year.
With a shift in rate expectations, market logic completely reverses. In a high interest rate environment, high valuation assets will face renewed pressure, and funds will reassess risks.
At such times, short-term sharp volatility is likely, and with positive expectations dashed, many positions may choose to exit.
However, it’s not necessary to be outright bearish. We need to see if subsequent continuous data keeps rising; a single month’s data is just a signal and does not represent an immediate trend reversal.
At this stage, the biggest mistake is chasing highs and selling lows—don’t let a single candlestick drive your emotions. In a market with fluctuating expectations, holding your position baseline and waiting for a clear direction before acting is much more stable than betting on a one-sided move.A trader publicly shared a live trading account for over a month, with a return rate of 81.1%. The account grew from 30,000 to 56,000, netting a profit of 25,880 USD. However, he was mocked for "shorting $BTC at 83,000, not exiting when it dropped to 79,700, and holding through a rebound near 82,000" as if his profits were only on paper. This detail is more worth pondering than the profit itself—it reveals not whose account is real or fake, but the mismatch when the market judges a weekly framework by hourly fluctuations. First, let's clarify the facts: the account started live trading on September 8 with 30,000 USD, and so far has an 81.1% return, a profit of 25,880 USD, and a risk-reward ratio of 7.18:1. This ratio means that even if only 1 out of 8 trades wins, there is no loss, and the actual win rate is not low; since going public, there have been profits almost every week. He did not disclose before because the account size was too large to show, until a certain platform's followers reached 23,000 and he was repeatedly urged to use a smaller 30,000 account for live trading. In other words, this was a public verification forced by public opinion, not a marketing-style show-off. The real point of disagreement lies in the position logic. He held a $BTC short position that had not reached the target; when the price fell from 83,000 to 79,700, he did not exit, and when it rebounded near 82,000, he remained calm. Spectators judge by floating profits and losses within a few hours, while his standard is cycle structure and risk-reward ratio— as long as the structure is intact, the position must be held. These are two completely different time dimensions in dialogue: the former looks at candlestick movements, the latter at the trading rhythm on the weekly chart. Measuring a long-term position with a short-term ruler inevitably leads to the conclusionBig Brother Maji: Full liquidation again, why is he so obsessed with going long?
Maji's long position was forcibly liquidated again, giving back all the unrealized profits from a year ago and losing about $36.85 million.
This cycle of "profit—liquidation—re-deposit" has happened more than once.
Why is he so obsessed with going long? I think there are several reasons:
1. After tasting success, he developed path dependence; he once made significant profits by going long on $ETH and $HYPE;
2. Strong belief in ETH, a typical "E-guard" mindset;
3. Gambling nature and resilience. Habitually using 25x leverage and rolling positions to amplify exposure, with a high-risk preference of "losing repeatedly but fighting on," quickly reopening positions after multiple large-scale liquidations;
4. Psychological illusion: under high leverage, even small rebounds can quickly amplify the account, combined with sunk costs and overconfidence, making it hard for him to truly exit.
The direction might not be wrong, but the combination of high leverage and no stop-loss turns normal volatility into fatal liquidation.
Position management and trading rhythm are far more important than simply being bullish.
My judgment on ETH:
Currently, $ETH is weak, still below the short-term moving averages.
Key support is at $2370–2400, with stronger support at $2320–2360;
Resistance is at $2450–2500, then $2550–2600.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, making volatility prone to amplification.
For 25x leverage, even a 1–2% adverse move can bring you close to the liquidation line again.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? $PEPE Observation: Brother Sun buying a huge amount of PEPE at the bottom—is it to support the price or to dump?
On-chain data shows that Sun Yuchen's address withdrew 7.2 trillion PEPE from Poloniex, worth about $28.44 million.
Notably, the last operation on this address was in June 2024, when PEPE's price was as high as $0.00001256.
Now PEPE has dropped to $0.000003843, a decline of nearly 70%.
Brother Sun entering the market at this time is most likely taking advantage of the deep current pullback to accumulate at a low price.
But receiving the coins does not mean an immediate price rally.
Considering the current market's extremely low volume and the cooling sentiment in the Meme sector, with a 24-hour trading volume of just over $5 million,
in this period of stock game lacking incremental liquidity, it is difficult for a single large holder's address movement alone to create sustained upward momentum.
Funds moved from the exchange to a private on-chain wallet may indicate preparation for long-term holding.
However, if this large amount of tokens is later re-deposited back to centralized exchanges, the risk of sudden dumping should be watched closely.
This action currently only serves as a brief emotional stimulus.12 years, turning 100,000 into 33.82 million: What that giant whale truly taught leverage traders
In the early hours today, two Bitcoin addresses dormant for 12 to 13 years moved. 416.69 BTC, originally bought for about $105,400, now worth 33.82 million.
Most people's first reaction to this news is: the whale is selling, bearish. But this reaction itself reveals a problem—you are interpreting an action measured in "decades" with an "hourly" mindset.
The last time these two addresses moved Bitcoin, the price was still in the single-digit dollar range. They went through at least three rounds of deep bear markets over 80%, exchange collapses, regulatory crackdowns, and countless "Bitcoin is dead" headlines. They didn’t move.
Not moving for 12 years is itself a strategy. And it’s a strategy that most leverage traders can’t follow—not because it’s smarter, but because it doesn’t require daily decisions. On-chain analysts clearly say: movement between addresses doesn’t necessarily mean selling; it could just be custody migration or wallet reorganization. But the market immediately reads it as "the whale is about to dump," which precisely shows panic is the default setting.
Is the short-term market chaotic? Yes. And the data is even harsher than intuition.
Bitcoin’s cumulative return over the past three years is about 225%. But if you exclude the best 15 trading days, the return turns into -11%. Fifteen days, less than 1.4% of total trading days in nearly three years, contributed all the alpha; excluding them, you underperform cash. 2026 is the same: the year fell about 9%, but if you miss the strongest 5 days, the drop expands to 36%.
What does this mean? If you use leverage to "catch" those 15 days, you will most likely be liquidated while waiting for them. And those two addresses that didn’t move for 12 years never tried to catch any single day. They just stayed in the game.
For leverage traders, the real advice from this news is simple: be clear about what you are betting on.
If you bet "whale movement = immediate dump," you are betting on a conclusion that even on-chain analysts dare not make. If you use 10x or 20x leverage to speculate on a short-term direction, you are essentially betting against "chaos"—and the distribution of those 15 days won’t become predictable just because you watch the market longer.
The logic of dollar-cost averaging is precisely based on accepting "chaos." It doesn’t predict which day will rise; it only ensures you have a position when that 1.4% of days arrives. Research data supports this: during drawdowns of 20% to 70%, dollar-cost averaging consistently outperforms lump-sum investing. More notably, the number of whale wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC hit a record high this week at 20,338, and this group has been buying during the past three months’ decline. Whales make decisions on quarters and years, while leverage traders make decisions on hours—two timeframes colliding at the same price level, and one side is very likely to be seriously wrong.
That whale that didn’t move for 12 years just changed addresses today. It didn’t prove anything about tomorrow’s price. But it quietly demonstrated the only thing repeatedly verified in this market: turning 100,000 into 33.82 million isn’t about getting one day right; it’s about not doing anything unnecessary over those 12 years.
Leverage gives you the chance to win many times in one day. But a chaotic market only needs you to be wrong once.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins BTC and ETH are now both standing on the pressure test platform at critical price levels!
BTC has tested the 81,000 USD area three times in October, while ETH repeatedly tests the 2,350 support level, with the market oscillating back and forth between bulls and bears.
The driving force behind this is still macro pressure. The US September CPI data exceeded expectations, and the market's probability expectation for a Fed rate hike in October surged directly from 22% to 53.7%. US Treasury yields are approaching a 24-year high, putting all risk assets under pressure.
BTC's three probes downward show that the scale of on-chain losses is getting smaller each time, more like hesitant floating chips being gradually washed out, not yet a full-blown panic sell-off. But the hidden risk is also obvious: Glassnode data shows that new buying liquidity below 80,000 USD is continuously shrinking. Once the key support is effectively broken, the price will accelerate downward to the real market cost line of 78,000 USD.
On the ETH side, 2,350 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding this level will continue the range-bound oscillation; if volume breaks down below it, the 2,323 low will immediately be exposed.
Now both coins share the same characteristic: repeatedly testing critical positions, which itself consumes the bulls' defensive strength. The choice of market direction often happens at the moment when liquidity is the thinnest.Meta forecasts a $10 billion provision, will cash also flow out all at once?
The Q3 2026 financial report has not yet been released. Meta expects to add about $10 billion in legal expense provisions for that quarter. A one-time provision does not mean a one-time payment; installments will still occupy cash. Next, we need to verify actual payments, operating cash flow, and ongoing expenses; if operating profit still weakens after excluding this item, then the blame cannot be placed solely on this provision. $META #Meta's massive AI investment enters the return verification period Funds have already started to diverge, with $BTC being bought while $ETH is still bleeding.
Looking at the net spot flow, short-term selling pressure has not ended yet.
$BTC has a net outflow of about $56.36 million in the last 4 hours, but a net inflow of $61.22 million over 24 hours, indicating short-term selling pressure, while mid-to-short term still has funds supporting it, temporarily stronger than other major coins.
$ETH looks worse, with a net outflow of $52.79 million over 24 hours and a cumulative outflow of $3.24 billion in the last 30 days. Funds continue to withdraw, and the rebound lacks spot buying support, so no rush to bottom-fish for now.
$SOL shows relatively strong mid-to-long term fund performance, with a net inflow of $91.58 million in the past week and $145 million over 30 days, but short-term selling pressure also exists.
$ZEC has a net inflow of $110 million in the past 15 days, but a net outflow of $16.88 million in 24 hours; chasing highs requires caution against profit-taking sell-offs.
My judgment: Do not chase the rally in the short term; prioritize watching $BTC’s fund support. If $BTC can hold steady and continue to attract spot inflows, then consider going long with the trend; for $ETH, before the fund outflow reverses, watch the resistance during rebounds and do not rush to catch falling knives. $SOL is relatively strong but also needs to wait for short-term selling pressure to ease.
Remember, fund inflows do not mean immediate price increases, and fund outflows do not necessarily mean inevitable declines. The current game is not about who dares to rush in, but who can wait for positions with higher certainty. $SAND has dropped 99% from its all-time high, but it has risen 60% in the last thirty days. All of its tokens have long been in circulation, and none will be unlocked anymore.
There is no more story on the supply side. The total supply is 3 billion, with 2.94 billion circulating, accounting for 97.9%. The unlocking schedule will be completed by 2025. More importantly, staking stops in 2025—the mechanism that originally locked tokens through annualized yields is gone, and now there is nothing restraining sell pressure.
The demand side hasn’t picked up either. Land transaction volume and active users have yet to return to 2021 levels.
So where does this 60% increase come from? Look at derivatives: open interest has jumped from 23 million to over 45 million, funding rates have dropped to negative 0.89, and shorts dominate. This is a rebound after overselling, where shorts piled up too heavily and were squeezed out.
The counter-evidence is in the same data: the net active buy-sell difference in spot is negative 55 million, and in futures it’s negative 3.4 billion. The price is rising, but active buying has consistently been net selling.
So this round’s increase is in price, not in buying volume. Once shorts cover, there will be no second wave.
0.06 is the pivot of this round; above it, 0.067 to 0.069 repeatedly suppresses it, and higher still is 0.077 to 0.08. ⚡ This looks more like a power supply constraint rather than a slowdown in computing power demand!
The problem is: according to Microsoft's ($MSFT) timeline, the grid capacity may not be able to meet the demand for its computing infrastructure expansion in time.
For $NBIS (Nebius), this might actually present some short-term opportunities since it owns its own site and power access infrastructure. 🏗️⚡
But the risks facing the AI industry go far beyond just power shortages.
🔍 Three major potential risks for semiconductors, Neocloud, and the AI industry:
1️⃣ Policy regulations could extend data center construction timelines
If the Democratic Party wins a sweeping victory in the U.S. congressional elections, the industry may face stricter regulations, and the power-on schedules for data centers could be further delayed.
In the future, discussions around moratoriums on data center construction may increase across states.
After all, if you buy GPUs worth billions of dollars but don’t have enough power to run them, when will those investments truly pay off?
2️⃣ Delays in computing power deployment could drive up inference costs
If new computing power cannot be put into use as planned, AI inference costs may remain high for a longer period.
For companies unable to pass these costs onto customers, this means profit margins could be squeezed.
Large cloud service providers (Hyperscalers) have stronger cost absorption capabilities but are not completely immune to the impact.Everyone's cost lines were tested in the same week. BTC, ETH, SOL — which direction are they heading right now?
The market hasn't looked good this week, but what’s truly worth watching isn’t the decline itself, but the fact that three cost lines of different natures are being repeatedly tested within the same time window.
The macro background isn’t complicated: CPI is relatively hot, the 10-year US Treasury yield is stuck above 5.2%, risk assets are generally under pressure, and CoinShares data shows a net outflow of $434 million from global digital asset investment products this week. Money is withdrawing, but the way it’s withdrawing reveals the true bottom lines of each asset.
The real issue for BTC right now is whether the ETF cost line at 81,500 can be defended through "passive defense," or if it will ultimately require a liquidity test down to 78,000 to complete the chip exchange. $ETH Brothers, how's your weekend rest going? This morning saw a rare weekend volume surge, with Ethereum spiking to 2315 in the early hours. The Korean stock market exploded with a crisis, releasing massive volume over the weekend.
After the spike at 2315 quickly pulled back, consolidation above 2400 shows there is still capital supporting the market. After breaking down, the downward momentum is insufficient, making it difficult for another big drop in the short term.
On the other hand, the US stock market continues to plunge with almost no decent rebound, the situation is more severe than expected. This morning tech stocks were hit hard again, dropping over 5%. If KORU, this Korean stock, fails to recover from the danger zone at Monday's open, it could trigger a new round of long position liquidations. KORU has over $50 million in long positions around the $10 level.
The Korean stock market crash signal is being compared by some to the 2008 avalanche market. Back then, Korean stocks plunged over 80% in a week; this time it has already dropped 60%! $ETH Retail investors are selling at a loss, ETFs are fleeing, and whales are secretly hoarding 3.03 million coins
$BTC is now hovering around 81,500, the 80,000 level has been tested several times over the weekend but hasn't broken, showing strong support. However, 81,818 is the lower boundary of the triangle; if it can't break above, all efforts are in vain. Only after surpassing it can we look at 82,600.
The most fragmented part of the market is here: three groups doing their own thing. Retail and short-term traders can't withstand the CPI bearish news and panic sell around 80,000. ETF institutions are also withdrawing, with cumulative outflows exceeding 600 million since October; BlackRock and Fidelity are the main players. But what about the whales? Whale holdings have reached 3.03 million coins, the highest since November 2025, with the fastest accumulation speed since February this year. The order book shows buy orders far exceeding sell orders. Retail is selling, ETFs are withdrawing, whales are buying, and chips are shifting from weak hands to strong hands.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidations reached 317 million, with long positions accounting for 251 million. One person contributed 62.98 million in Ethereum longs, and those chasing longs got taught a lesson again.
On the macro side, after CPI exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October surged from 22% to 51.5%, but has now been pushed back to around 10%. The FOMC has entered a quiet period, and next we watch the Hormuz negotiations and oil prices. Bloodletting or not, it doesn't mean an immediate rise; the bottom may still need to be tested.
In short: if 81,818 can't be broken, it means consolidation; breaking below 80,000 is the real trouble. Whales are buying, you are selling; who is right or wrong will be revealed at the FOMC on the 28th. Keep your hands in your pockets, don't be the one replaced during the bloodletting.$NEAR short trend perfectly realized, 50x short positions grabbed a terrifying 491.81% floating profit.
Opening logic: Helius CEO joining the foundation and ETF expectations have been fully priced in, RSI overbought and stagnant. A $2.64 million whale long was forcefully liquidated, futures open interest sharply dropped, institutions are aggressively distributing above 5.256.
Current mark price is 4.739, having broken the key support at 4.89, now testing the structural bottom line at 4.68.
Operation plan: Take profits in batches at the support zone, move the stop loss down on remaining positions to protect profits.
$BTC $SNDK #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus A total net outflow of $610.7 million from five types of crypto ETFs, with ETH outflow exceeding BTC for the first time in a single week A total net outflow of $610.7 million from five types of crypto ETFs, with ETH outflow exceeding BTC for the first time in a single week 🚨 Tesla ($TSLA) earnings per share at $0.43 may hide risks! 📊
Delivery volume exceeding expectations does not necessarily mean profits will grow in sync.
📦 Strong delivery performance
Actual deliveries: 486,000 vehicles
Market expectation: 462,000 vehicles
However, note that discount promotions and 0% loan offers may compress per-vehicle profits. Whether sales growth can truly translate into profit growth remains to be seen.
⚠️ Lessons from Q2 are worth cautioning
Previously, Tesla had revenue exceeding expectations but earnings per share below expectations, with EPS about 34% below forecast.
At the same time, increased R&D spending and approximately $5.8 billion in capital expenditures may also pressure profit margins.
🎯 This EPS forecast: $0.43
The market consensus is exactly $0.43. According to my judgment rule, only exceeding expectations counts as a win; if the result matches expectations, it does not count as a win.
My judgment: For now, choose No.
Sales growth is certainly important, but what truly determines the quality of the financial report are profit margins, cash flow, and the actual costs behind growth.
💬 What do you think? Can Tesla break through the $0.43 EPS expectation this time?
#TSLA #TeslaEarnings #TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins #Q3Earnings #USStockAnalysis A coin-hoarding company even more aggressive than MicroStrategy also issued an orange dot today
According to previous patterns, Strive will announce the latest Bitcoin purchase data in the next couple of days
Its founder said: Now stacking sats with double horsepower.
As I understand it, this means they are going to double down on buying $BTC.$ETHFI
Liquid restaking introduces an additional layer of capital efficiency by allowing users to maintain tokenized exposure while participating in restaking-related strategies. Ether.fi operates in a competitive environment where yields must justify smart-contract, slashing, and protocol risks. Expansion alone does not establish lasting value for ETHFI. The crucial distinction is between growth funded by incentives and recurring demand supported by useful products and sustainable economics.