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Looking at SanDisk (SNDK) now, my feeling is: it has dropped too hard, someone is bottom-fishing, so it bounced a bit, but this is called a "rebound," not a "reversal" yet. It's like a person who fell down, bounced up and sat down, but hasn't stood up and walked steadily yet.
It has dropped nearly 30% around, RSI is below 30, selling pressure has eased; on October 19 it rose more than 5 points, but the trading volume was only a quarter of usual, so the bounce had no follow-through. Only when it stabilizes at 1350–1400 can the rebound be considered upgraded; if it breaks below 1276, it may still go lower. The downtrend channel hasn't been broken, the bears haven't given up.
Fundamentals: The performance is really strong, last quarter revenue was 8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year, gross margin 84.6%, next quarter guidance is still accelerating, AI data centers are the engine, Goldman Sachs has a buy target of 2200. There is real substance supporting it, not just pure hype.
Risks: The market knew about the good performance early, after the August earnings report it actually dropped 11.8% in two days, expectations have been largely priced in; the old problem of the storage cycle remains, whether the 84.6% gross margin can be maintained is uncertain.
Summary: Short-term oversold rebound, no confirmed reversal in the medium term. The October 29 earnings report is key; before that, 1276–1454 is a battleground between bulls and bears, suitable for watching, not for aggressive moves. If you have a position, don't get carried away by a single bullish candle; if you are out of position, don't rush to chase. On October 19, 2026, according to Crypto Briefing, USDC issuer Circle disclosed that in the first half of 2026, the company retained only 7 cents of net profit for every 1 dollar of revenue earned. Meanwhile, OUSD attempts to attract enterprises through mechanisms such as reserve yield sharing, free minting and redemption, and partner participation in governance. Although the two models differ, they both point to the same issue... 1. Circle's Profit Distribution According to data published on Circle's official website, in the first half of 2026, the on-chain transaction settlement volume of USDC exceeded 36 trillion dollars. Circle issued and redeemed over 315 billion USDC, averaging about 1.7 billion dollars per day (including weekends and holidays). In the first half of 2026, Circle's revenue was approximately 1.4 billion dollars, of which about 819 million dollars were paid to USDC distribution partners and transaction fees. For every 1 dollar of revenue, about 59 cents flowed to global partners who enable USDC to be used in wallets, exchanges, banks, fintech companies, enterprises, and payment networks worldwide. Circle reinvested the vast majority of the remaining funds into network development. Circle spent about 473 million dollars (approximately 34 cents of every 1 dollar of revenue) on license applications, bank relationship maintenance, settlement liquidity construction, compliance projects, new product investments, and blockchain integration, all of which enable USDC to becomeNo leverage, the worst outcome for ETH is being "trapped," not "zeroed out." The difference between these two is worlds apart in the crypto community.
With leveraged ETH, the way you die is "instant liquidation."
If you use leverage, ETH's volatility is your death sentence. A 10% market fluctuation is common in crypto, but with 50x leverage, a 10% adverse move equals a 500% loss, directly wiping out your principal and triggering a forced liquidation. Even if you are right about the long-term direction, a single spike can wipe out your position. A trader used 25x leverage to go long on ETH, reaching a peak unrealized profit of $44 million, but a sudden crash triggered a chain of liquidations, nearly wiping out $15 million of principal in 47 days, leaving only $1,718 in the account. The essence of leveraged trading is using limited capital to fight against unlimited market volatility; given enough time, one mistake means you're out.
Without leverage, the way ETH "dies" is by "enduring."
If you avoid leverage and only hold spot, no matter how badly ETH falls, you still hold real ETH. Some players lost money on ETH but, because they didn't use leverage, their attitude was, "Spot has no leverage, so I’m not afraid of liquidation; I’ll just hold and wait six months or even a year if needed." Another person who endured a 50% ETH correction during the 2018 bear market didn’t cut losses because he had no leverage and eventually got a chance to break even. He later reflected with fear: "If I had used leverage this time, I would have been wiped out for sure, with no chance to recover." #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus BTC contributes nearly half of the new spot trading volume, can ETH and SOL keep up?
Currently, market trading heat continues to concentrate on BTC.
In the past 24 hours, the total spot trading volume across the market was $15.984 billion, an increase of 14.92%. BTC spot trading volume was $4.404 billion, up 28.24%.
The total spot trading volume increased by about $2.075 billion compared to the previous period, of which BTC increased by about $970 million, contributing approximately 46.7% of the increment.
BTC accounts for 27.55% of the total spot trading volume but contributes nearly half of the new trading volume. Excluding BTC, the combined trading volume growth of other coins is about 10.6%. The market is heating up, but the heat is not evenly distributed.
1. BTC: Spot trading heats up faster
The active trading is supported by data; next, the focus is on whether the price can strengthen synchronously and if the pullback has support. Increased volume alone does not prove buyer dominance.
2. ETH: The relay depends on its own buying power
Focus on whether spot trading volume can continue to increase and whether ETH/BTC can strengthen. Active BTC trading cannot be directly equated to increased ETH buying power.
3. SOL: Beyond gains, focus on sustainability
Rising with follow-up volume, pullbacks with support, and maintaining strength relative to BTC are necessary to support relay judgment.
BTC spot trading heat is already clear; whether ETH and SOL can take over still requires confirmation of their own volume and price.
Market-wide volume increase does not mean a full launch of altcoin rallies.#Meta's massive AI investment enters the return verification period. Zuckerberg openly admitted that before the model was validated successfully, Meta had to commit $100 billion to $200 billion in infrastructure, and even Alexandr Wang, who was in charge of AI at the time, couldn't guarantee success. The CFO repeatedly warned that failure would be disastrous.
But they went ahead anyway.
This is not "we saw it coming early," but rather "if we don't build computing power in advance, it will be too late once validation is done."
The harsh reality of AI is this— the infrastructure cycle is too long, so you have to bet your fortune when things are still uncertain.
Now the model is finally out, claiming it can compete with ChatGPT and Claude, and they've also launched a personal AI agent called Muse. But Zuckerberg himself said whether consumers will actually buy into it remains to be seen.
BTW, Zuckerberg is also a straightforward guy~
Free cash flow dropped to a multi-year low last quarter. The money has been spent, the story has been told, now it depends on whether users are willing to really use it and pay for it $BTC is not performing well, it was still at 83,000 USD yesterday, but today it has dropped again. It seems the bull market is still for tokenized stocks, not for Bitcoin and its secondary tokens. #OctoberFOMCApproaching, what uncertainties remain with the Fed pausing rate hikes? Tonight's $TSLA earnings report, my inclination is No!
I believe that simply relying on the positive impact from delivery volume may not be enough to support a sustained rise after the earnings report. The market already knows how many cars Tesla has delivered; what can truly create an earnings surprise are profit margins, cash flow, and future business guidance.
If the earnings report just barely meets expectations without providing clearer commercialization progress, I am more inclined to see the stock price spike and then fall back or fluctuate.
If the profitability of the automotive business improves, and Robotaxi and Optimus deliver better-than-expected progress, then even if the quarterly profit performance is average, the stock price could still rally.
What’s really worth watching tonight is not just EPS beating expectations alone, but whether profit margins, free cash flow, and management’s future guidance all improve simultaneously.
One more point: before the earnings report, it’s not advisable to heavily bet on direction based solely on market sentiment. Option market pricing also shows that investors are preparing for significant volatility after the earnings.
#Tesla delivery beats expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus Liquidation equals mining? Big Brother Machi's comfort zone 😇
@machibigbrother on @papetrade_xyz:
• Total trading volume of 1.56 billion USD
• Trading losses of 416,000 USD, ranked 10th on the loss leaderboard
• Received 57.6 million PAPER + 341,000 USDC staking rewards
• Net loss reduced to 74,700 USD
He almost exclusively opened $ETH long positions, 50x–1000x leverage, mostly 100x.
And the $PAPER mechanism is: no airdrops, no pre-mining, no team/VC shares, only minted when losing money or being liquidated. Early rate was 100 PAPER per USD loss, now decayed to about 12.Brothers, this week looks calm, but the hidden lines are in the details 🧐
Macro: Dovish tone sets the base first
The Fed meeting is on 10/28, so next week will be quiet. Waller leans dovish, and the market's bet on an October rate hike has dropped below 15%. The dollar is soft, which implicitly supports $BTC and $ETH; but without CPI next week, don't expect big moves 😴.
Events: Traditional finance making an appearance
Beijing Financial Street Forum (10.19-22) will discuss blockchain and digital RMB; Frankfurt Capital & Code (10.20) will talk about payments and digital assets. Neutral bias on BTC, ETH's RWA/stablecoin narrative might catch some heat 🔥.
$ETH concerns: staking catalyst temporarily missing
SEC funding cut off, new ETF approvals still stuck; VanEck withdrew the Lido staked ETH ETF application. The ETH staking story loses a card in the short term, relatively weaker than BTC 😐.
Positioning game: don't chase, wait for a pullback
After the 10/9 options expiry, BTC's biggest pain point is 84k, ETH at 2650 is a short-term gravity level. No large near-term expiries next week, sellers dominate, chasing highs is low value, waiting for a pullback is safer 🎯. #Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus The quality of $BTC's rebound yesterday was actually average; $BTC pulled back as soon as it touched above 83000, and other coins didn't even reclaim the 20-day moving average.
In this kind of market structure, chasing highs has poor cost-effectiveness. Only if all three conditions are met simultaneously should one consider bottom-fishing:
1. BTC holds above 85000;
2. $ETH recovers the 20-day moving average;
3. ETF funds turn positive.
Why say this? Because holders of BTC ETFs have an average cost basis around 84358 USD. When the rebound approaches this cost zone, there will be sell-offs from those looking to break even; only if it holds above can we say the trend has reversed.
ETH is the weakest major coin in this wave, down 4.3% over 7 days, still over a hundred dollars below the 20-day moving average (2532), with a daily RSI of only 29, indicating severe oversold conditions. If it can hold above the 20-day moving average, it likely means the trend has reversed.
Finally, a note on $ZEC, which today sets the mainnet activation height for NU7. Note that today is the height setting, not the switch. The mainnet upgrade includes: block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and 60% of transaction fees go into a reserve pool that will be gradually distributed to miners.Whales (address 0x0cc…bc7cb) are fully bullish on oil, holding the top 1 $CL position on Hype and the top 4 $BRENTOIL position.
$CL: 149,000 units ($14.73 million), average entry price $98.14, current unrealized profit $109,000
$BRENTOIL: 93,000 units ($9.98 million), average entry price $106, current unrealized profit $48,000
Oil prices remain high, the technical outlook is bullish, and it is clearly driving inflation higher. Gasoline alone rose 9.1% month-over-month in September, contributing more than half of the overall CPI increase for the month. Although the market currently leans toward the Fed not raising rates in October, expectations for a rate hike in December are already very high. This is very unfavorable for $BTC.
If the Hormuz Strait issue is not resolved and oil-driven costs continue to pass through to other goods and services, further rate hikes in 2027 cannot be ruled out. #HormuzReopeningPlanStillValid, can oil prices continue to fall?
Also, with only about two weeks left until the November 3 midterm elections, expensive gasoline, high living costs, and costly borrowing are daily realities for voters. I imagine Trump must be having a major headache. If the Middle East conflict completely spirals out of control, $BTC could be the first to drop for everyone to see!
If Israel explicitly targets overthrowing the Iranian regime as a strategic goal, the Middle East situation could enter a more unpredictable phase. The market's real concern is not just the military actions themselves, but whether the conflict will escalate, whether energy infrastructure will be damaged, and whether other countries will get involved.
I do not agree with the simplistic logic that "the more chaotic the war, the higher Bitcoin rises." $BTC is not bulletproof digital gold. When global risk appetite sharply declines, investors may sell stocks, crypto assets, and other high-volatility instruments, prioritizing holding cash. If oil prices surge and push inflation expectations higher, the market may also reassess the Federal Reserve's rate cut path.
This means BTC could simultaneously face the triple pressures of insufficient safe-haven demand, tightening liquidity, and leveraged liquidations.
But on the other hand, we cannot ignore that if the conflict does not further escalate, the market might price in the worst-case scenario as already behind us, and BTC could quickly rebound. Therefore, what really needs to be observed is whether crude oil continues to rise, whether the US dollar strengthens, and whether BTC's trading volume and key supports deteriorate.
🤔👽 In times of high uncertainty, blindly bottom-fishing is more dangerous than temporarily missing out on gains. Don't assume the bottom has formed just because it dropped a few points. $BTC Morning Report
[Capital Dimension: Continuous Capital Outflow]
Lacking stablecoin incremental expansion combined with continuous net inflows into ETFs, this round of rebound is essentially a short-covering driven impulse rally, not driven by new active capital inflows. With no new external capital, existing funds are internally competing and rotating, making this rally's sustainability weak; after the surge, there remains a risk of pullback.
[Macro Environment + Market Analysis]
Currently, the market prices an 87.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October, but expectations for rate cuts have basically disappeared, making it difficult to see liquidity easing benefits in the short term.
BTC pulled back after touching 83,000 and is now oscillating around 82,000. The key support to watch is last week's low at 80,112; if this level holds, consolidation and bottoming will continue, but a confirmed break below will trigger a deeper level of correction. ETH has seen a cumulative net ETF outflow of 228 million over the past 5 days, with short-term funds continuously exiting, although long-term institutional base holdings have not been significantly reduced.
[Priority for Rebound After Stabilization]
If the market stops falling and stabilizes later, BTC will be the preferred target for capital to return, given its strong institutional allocation attributes and clear deep liquidity advantages. ETH is relatively weak in the short term and requires close monitoring of whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate has stopped falling before it can catch up with the rebound rhythm.
#Continuous ETF Outflows, Can BTC's Rebound Continue? #SpaceX's First Full Quarterly Report After Listing to be Revealed #Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus $BTC $ETH $SNDK SanDisk's storage business is very likely to continue its high growth in 2027, but the growth rate will naturally retreat from the extreme level of FY2026. The driving force will shift from "unilateral price surge" to a combination of "long-term contract volume lock + moderate price increase + data center bit shipment growth." The real turning point is not in 2027, but in the race between supply release and demand growth in 2028—if by then AI inference demand does not experience a new structural leap (such as large-scale deployment of edge AI or CSP capital expenditure continuing to exceed expectations).The most striking part of the Senate report isn’t who gets frozen slowly: among the 846 named Iran-related wallets, 84% only use USDT. Tether’s response is also tough — since 2023, on average, they act four weeks earlier than the Treasury Department’s official sanctions, and 99% of cases were frozen before being listed by on-chain analysis firms. This year alone, they’ve frozen $550 million on this front. It sounds compliant and exemplary, but looking at it from another angle, it’s chilling: the real gatekeeper for sanctions enforcement is the backend of a single company. Four weeks early today, four weeks late tomorrow, no one stops it. $BTC
$ETH ETF outflow reached $593 million, Coinbase premium turned negative, longs liquidated $173 million.
Three solid indicators simultaneously point to "no buyers left."
But BTC is still hovering around 82,000.
Who is selling? Who is buying?
First, let's look at a set of "conflicting" data.
Last week, the total net outflow from all digital asset ETFs was $593 million, with IBIT alone withdrawing $228.6 million; the previous week was even worse at $681 million. Coinbase premium index dropped to -0.141, the lowest since June 30, clearly showing insufficient US buy-side support. In the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $173 million, accounting for more than half of all derivatives liquidations—leveraged gamblers are being taken out in batches.
The sellers are clear: passive ETFs are withdrawing, short-term leveraged longs are being liquidated.
But BTC hasn't fallen below 80,000, it’s even consolidating near 82,000. Who is buying?
What’s buying is not "faith," but two things: limit orders and hedging.
Between 80,000 and 81,500 USD, there is a "buy wall" of limit orders that traders are watching closely as a price support zone. Meanwhile, on Deribit, open interest for the 80,000 USD strike options contracts is as high as $1.6 billion. Market makers, to hedge their Gamma exposure, must buy when prices fall and sell when prices rise—they are "mechanically" supporting the price near 80,000, not because they are bullish, but because their positions force them to do so.
Therefore, 80,000 is not the "market bottom."
It is the "liquidity bottom."
Limit orders can be withdrawn. Options will expire. Gamma hedging will disappear as open interest shifts away from the 80,000 strike price. When that wall is eaten up and those contracts roll off, who will buy below 80,000 is unknown.
GlassNode puts it bluntly: selling pressure has eased, but "there is not yet enough new buying power to fill the gap." ETF capital flows have not reversed, Coinbase premium has not turned positive, and real structural buying has not returned.
Holding 80,000 does not mean 80,000 is the bottom.
It only means someone has placed orders below 80,000.
Limit orders can be withdrawn; the bottom cannot be defined by limit orders.
$BTC $COIN $ETH #ETF continuous outflow, can BTC's rebound continue? Judgment revealed: Yesterday closed at 81,938, closing below the recovery green line at 82,601 — the breakthrough of 83,000 the day before yesterday was confirmed as a false breakout, recovery failed, early retest scenario continues.
The first battle this morning: the low point dipped to 81,200, pierced the Fibonacci 23.6% (81,476) but then recovered, current price 81,642. Behind this line is a triple support of MA50 and MA60, currently being tested positively.
The roadmap below is very clear: if 81,476 cannot hold, the next stop is 80,000 as a pre-warning, then to the 78,200 to 78,900 quadruple resonance cluster (38.2% plus 50-week moving average plus yearly line plus lower channel boundary), which is the retest end zone.
News: On the first day of ETF resumption, outflows slowed; IBIT turned to a slight net inflow (single source pending verification); the probability of a rate hike in October cooled to around 16%; note MARA transferred 1,000 BTC into exchanges, miner selling pressure is a new shadow.
Response: No increase or decrease. Today we watch whether the daily close at 81,476 can hold — if it holds, it’s consolidation; if broken, acceleration to the 78k cluster.
(Personal opinion, not investment advice) BTC has been stuck at 82,000 for three days. It can't rise, nor can it fall.
You might think this is "building momentum." Wrong.
This is the market slowly grinding away your patience and positions before the FOMC.
Let's lay out this week's timeline.
After the market closed on Wednesday, Meta and Tesla both reported. Meta's full-year capital expenditure guidance is $130 billion to $145 billion, with institutions expecting Q3 free cash flow to turn negative directly to -$9.14 billion. The AI story has been told for two years, but now the market only asks one question: The money has been spent, where are the profits?
On the same day, EIA crude oil inventory was released. Last week's inventory unexpectedly plunged by 8.557 million barrels, while the expectation was only a 288,000 barrel decrease. Oil prices are pinned high between $98 and $110 due to Middle East tensions; if inventory depletion exceeds expectations again, inflation expectations will be kicked up another notch.
October 28, FOMC. The current pricing shows an 82.8% probability of no change, and a 17.2% chance of a rate hike. But the real killer is December: the probability of a 25 basis point hike has already hit 77.8%. No change in October is almost a sure bet.
Known cards don't set prices. It's the unknown cards that kill.
Scenario A: Bullish bias.
Meta's earnings prove AI investment can generate revenue, Tesla's gross margin holds steady, and tech stocks lead the market's positive sentiment. Meanwhile, EIA inventory unexpectedly accumulates, giving oil prices a breather from the highs. Long-term interest rates fall, and BTC volume surges above 83,000.
But there's a premise: ETFs must turn to net inflows. Last week, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $229 million, following $681 million the previous week. Price rebounds but funds are still fleeing; this kind of "bullish" is fragile. Surging above 83,000 without ETF inflows is likely a bull trap.
Scenario B: Bearish bias.
Meta's negative free cash flow shocks the market; AI capital expenditure shifts from "faith" to "burden." EIA inventory continues to deplete, oil prices climb back up, and inflation fears resurface. BTC breaks below 80,000, with the next liquidity dense zone between 75,000 and 78,000.
The harshest thing on this path isn't price drops, but leveraged liquidations. Around 80,000, a large number of options remain open and stop-loss orders are stacked; once broken, the short squeeze will be faster than you think.
Scenario C: Baseline, and the most frustrating.
Earnings are mixed, oil prices are stuck, and BTC keeps oscillating between 80,000 and 83,000. On Monday, a push to 83,000 was smashed; Tuesday touched 81,000 then pulled back; Wednesday tried again and was smashed again.
Every rally looks like a breakout, every pullback looks like a crash.
This kind of market doesn't kill you outright; it grinds you down. Grinding until you can't stand it and chase in, then a single bearish candle buries you.
The only strategy is one sentence: don't chase spot, don't overleverage contracts.
The 81,000 to 82,000 range is seen by many traders as strong support; Doctor Profit even opened a 4x long position at this level. But the effectiveness of support doesn't depend on how pretty the candlesticks look, it depends on whether ETFs have stopped bleeding.
Prices can deceive. A big bullish candle can make everyone forget the outflows. But capital flows don't lie.
Before the FOMC, the market won't give you a clean direction.
$BTC $BZ $META #ETF continuous outflows, can BTC's rebound continue? Meta will release its Q3 2026 earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday, October 21. Here's my judgment first: I tend to expect the revenue side of this report to slightly beat expectations. The growth foundation of the advertising business is still there, and revenue falling near the upper end of the company's guidance should be considered a reasonable expectation. However, relying on this slight beat to continue driving up the valuation is now more difficult than before. Recently, discussions about Meta increasingly focus on Muse and enterprise-level business. These products give the market reasons to raise long-term expectations again but also bring new questions: how much more will Mark Zuckerberg need to spend, and when will these investments be reflected in profits? Looking at this earnings report, we need to consider the hype around new products alongside the company's profitability. The advertising business is very likely to deliver good results, but expectations have already risen. Meta's previous Q3 revenue guidance was $61 billion to $64 billion, and recent publicly reported market consensus is about $63.3 billion, which is quite close to the upper end of the guidance. The latest investment bank forecasts released in early to mid-October range from $63.6 billion to $64 billion. Judgments from various firms are quite close, so a final report of $63.8 billion or $63.9 billion would certainly be a good result, but within these expectations, it wouldn't be a big surprise. If revenue exceeds $64 billion and the Q4 outlook is strong, there would be more justification to revise profit forecasts upward. Advertising remains the most significant business in Meta's earnings report. In Q2, advertising revenue accounted for nearly 98% of total revenue, with ad impressions growing by 1The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting next week, but the market is split in two over "whether to raise rates or hold steady"—this rare divergence itself is a signal: there is no consensus on pricing, and any premature bet could be wrong. 🔥 According to Jinse Finance, before the policy path is finalized, the crypto market often closely follows the rhythm of the US dollar and US Treasury yields. The direction of $BTC and high-beta altcoins is dominated by macro variables, and internal community narratives struggle to counter liquidity expectations. In other words, now is not the time for storytelling, but to watch the dollar's mood. This resembles a typical "event-driven" market: beware of false breakouts before the meeting; the real direction is determined by the post-meeting statement and policy path wording, not the single decision result itself. The current market divergence precisely indicates that capital is waiting for a clearer anchor. Two scenarios are worth watching closely: first, a stronger dollar combined with rising Treasury yields increases the probability of pressure on risk assets, with high-volatility assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL taking the lead; second, dovish wording could bring incremental funds back. Note, this is not a price prediction but an observation framework triggered by conditions. My judgment is: the market is overly focused on the binary outcome of "rate hike or not," underestimating the repricing power of wording and the dot plot on the path. The truly reusable golden phrase is—decisions are noise, the path is the signal. Confirming the signal is not in the vote result but in the immediate reaction of the dollar index and Treasury yields after the statement release, and whether $BTC's trading volume cooperates. Are you more focused on the post-meeting statement or $BOn Monday, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%, the S&P 500 increased 0.4%, and the semiconductor index ended an eight-day losing streak. Amazon rose 5%, SanDisk rose 5.5%, and SK Hynix rose nearly 5%.
It looks like "risk appetite is back."
Looking further down.
The credit spreads related to hyperscale cloud computing have risen to historic highs. CoreWeave's five-year CDS spread broke through 1000 basis points, with some bond yields surging above 15%, entering the pricing range of "distressed debt." Goldman Sachs directly stated: AI credit spreads have widened to the widest level this year; the last time they reached this level, related stocks were about 15% lower than now.
Stock investors are betting on the continuation of the AI narrative. Bond investors are pricing in the leverage risk of AI infrastructure. The two markets are speaking completely opposite languages.
What’s more painful is that no one is really placing bets.
Goldman Sachs trading desk rated the market activity that day as 3/10. Long-term funds bought consumer and financial stocks, while hedge funds net sold technology, media, and telecom. The speed at which hedge funds are reducing tech stocks is the fastest since at least 2016.
Stock prices rose, but the smart money is exiting.
The signal is even clearer when transmitted to crypto.
BTC is struggling around 81,000, with 83,000 repeatedly resisted. The Coinbase premium index has been negative for 20 consecutive days, currently at -0.1398%, with US buying continuously absent. Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $228.6 million, and IBIT had a weekly outflow of $165.5 million. ETF funds are withdrawing, US buying is shrinking, and the crypto market lacks an independent narrative.
It is waiting for the traditional market to finish the "credit pricing" internal battle first.
Crude oil at $103, 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.14%, these two numbers weigh heavily above, leaving no room for easing in risk assets.
The Nasdaq rise is sentiment; the widening credit spreads are fact. When the two clash, trust the bond market—because borrowers fear death more than stock buyers.
$BTC $QQQ $BZ $ZEC has been consolidating for 20 days. After the last violent pump, it took more than a month to reach a new high again?
The biggest $ZEC whale on HYPE is still active and has accumulated an additional 6,126.64 coins through TWAP, with a transaction volume of 7.2049 million USD, an average cost of 1,176 USD per coin, increasing the position by about 57.5%;
After adding to the position, his ZEC long position rose to 16,779.74 coins, valued at 19.4863 million USD, with an average price of 1,179.65 USD. Currently, there is an unrealized loss of about 307,900 USD, and the liquidation price is 838.19 USD;
This whale started trading ZEC as early as July 19, and this round of positions began on September 6. So far, no signs of reducing the position have been seen.
Additionally, he holds 1,121,300 $NEAR long coins, valued at 5.691 million USD with an unrealized profit of 89,500 USD; and 1 billion $PUMP long coins, valued at 4.455 million USD with an unrealized profit of 85,900 USD. The three long positions total about 29.6323 million USD, with $ZEC accounting for 65.8%!! The crypto market has been continuously adjusting recently, and the movement of institutional funds is more worth paying attention to than short-term price rebounds.
If the market starts to stabilize, I am more inclined to believe that $BTC will be the first to see a return of funds. Bitcoin has a more mature institutional allocation base and better liquidity, making it usually the preferred choice when funds re-enter the crypto market.
For $ETH, we need to observe the flow of spot ETF funds and whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate can stop falling and rebound.
If Bitcoin stabilizes first while ETH/BTC continues to weaken, it indicates that funds may still be concentrated in Bitcoin and have not truly spread to other crypto assets.
At this stage, rather than guessing who will rise first, I care more about who can first show sustained net inflows of funds.
$ZEC
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see a return first, BTC or ETH? According to data from the Financial Times, the deposits in crypto lending vaults have rapidly surged from about $4 billion at the beginning of last year to over $10 billion.
These vaults operate through DeFi smart contracts, with "curators" selecting lending strategies, setting risk limits, and collecting fees. Yields typically range from 3% to 10%, with aggressive strategies even exceeding 20%. The main funds come from fintech companies, digital asset treasury institutions, and hedge funds—institutions are no longer satisfied with simply holding stablecoins or BTC; they are starting to outsource idle funds to on-chain strategies.
On the surface, this signals active capital: idle money is seeking returns. But the underlying risks have not disappeared; they have just been packaged more "productively." Collateral may be illiquid tokens, crypto-backed stablecoins, or tokenized private credit; once the market declines, automatic liquidation can amplify volatility; risks from smart contracts, pricing errors, and hacker attacks ultimately remain borne by depositors.
The $10 billion scale indicates that institutions are using DeFi as a yield infrastructure, but the rising concentration of "managers" also means risk points are more centralized. Money coming in does not equal safety. What truly deserves attention is not how much more deposits the vaults have, but what assets this money is actually collateralized with, who is making the decisions, and who gets liquidated first if something goes wrong.
High yields are never free; they just shift risk from price volatility to collateral quality and contract security. $ETH $DOGE Dogecoin Still Has Hope
Many people ask if Dogecoin still has hope. The real question should be: can it once again become an asset that the market is willing to continuously buy? As of October 2026, Dogecoin is fluctuating around $0.08, nearly 90% down from its all-time high.
It is not without hope, but that hope has become very narrow, very expensive, and highly dependent on sentiment.
The biggest misconception is treating X Money as a "certain positive" for Dogecoin. X Money launched in the US in 2026, supporting transfers, Visa debit cards, savings accounts, and other features. However, as of mid-2026, its public version still primarily uses fiat currency, and crypto payments have not yet been officially implemented. Every time the market sees Elon Musk mention payments, Dogecoin experiences a pulse-like surge, but this is more narrative expectation than realized fundamentals.
The second misconception is considering a "strong community" as a moat. Dogecoin adds about 5 billion new coins annually, so maintaining its price requires continuous new buying. It lacks a smart contract ecosystem, institutional funds are weak, and spot ETF size is very small. This means it remains an asset driven by retail and whales, with funds coming in fast and leaving fast.
Does it still have hope? Yes, but it depends on three things: Bitcoin strengthening again, X Money truly integrating crypto payments in the future with clear inclusion of DOGE, and a resurgence of community narrative. Without these, it is more likely to continue wide-range fluctuations; with them, a highly elastic market movement may occur. [AI has turned memory into a gold mine, but phone manufacturers are struggling to afford it]
Wood Sister thinks storage chips have dropped below a buying point, but BofA's Hartnett warns: the sell signal disappearing doesn't mean a bottom-buying signal has appeared. Both sides are actually looking at different things—one focuses on industry profits, the other on overall market risk.
TrendForce expects DRAM contract prices to rise 90% to 95% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, and still increase 58% to 63% in Q2. AI servers are grabbing capacity, boosting storage manufacturers' bargaining power, but phone manufacturers can only bear the costs. IDC data shows global phone shipments fell 22% year-over-year in Q3, with high prices already squeezing end-user demand.
Price increases for storage chips $SKHY, $SNDK, $MU don't mean all companies in the supply chain are profitable. Upstream profits come from supply-demand imbalances, while downstream may be squeezed by high costs and declining sales. BofA's concern is different: market sentiment has cooled, but investors' positions and cash levels haven't provided enough safety margin yet.
I tend to view storage as a structurally supported opportunity with earnings backing, but not one to blindly chase. As long as AI demand persists and price hikes convert into profits, leaders have logic; if contract price growth narrows and phone demand worsens, the so-called buy zone might just be a mid-downturn. Wood Sister bets on industry prosperity, BofA guards against market valuation—right now, neither side holds a guaranteed winning hand. $PONS I feel that a daily trading volume of around $30M is roughly the bottom for $PONS.
Currently, protocol fees are about $30K to $60K per day.
If it stays at this level, the expected daily burn is around 100K to 150K tokens.
Robinhood Chain's trading volume is very likely to maintain around $900M under the current market conditions.
I think the market trading volume will no longer decline.
Check out the latest data for PONS:
Yesterday → Today
Trading volume: $32M → $37M (+15.6%)
Platform fees: $269K → $450K (+67.3%)
Protocol revenue: $36K → $68K (+88.9%)
Newly minted tokens: 1.1K → 1.7K (+54.5%)Crypto ETF Weekly Fund Flow Observation: $574 Million Net Outflow, Sustainability of the Rebound in Question
From October 12 to 16, the combined net outflow of BTC, ETH, and SOL spot ETFs was approximately $574 million, with no positive weekly close. Funds did not exit synchronously, but the three product lines did not form a coordinated handoff, leaving doubts about whether the rebound can continue.
BTC: Brief return pulse, weak absorption strength. Net outflow was $228.4 million for the week. On Tuesday, there was a net inflow of $175.7 million, but on Wednesday, a net outflow of $261.4 million followed immediately, and another $82.4 million outflow on Friday. Buying did appear but failed to form continuous relay, with the brief switch exposing insufficient absorption.
ETH: Leading weekly outflow, insufficient replenishment signals. Net outflow was $320.1 million, larger than BTC. From Wednesday to Friday, there were three consecutive days of net outflows totaling $259.5 million. Observing only through the ETF channel, ETH has yet to show stable replenishment strength.
SOL: Outflow scale is small, but continuous position reduction is more notable. Weekly net outflow was $25.5 million, an absolute limited amount, but there have been 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows totaling $50.5 million. On Friday alone, $12.7 million flowed out, nearly half of the weekly outflow. Compared to large single-day amounts, the continuous reduction of exposure is more worth noting.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#ETF continuous outflow, can BTC rebound continue? #Chip stocks rebound after eight consecutive declines, can AI trading fix it?
My US stock pre-market diary (October 19, 2026)
Brothers, this pre-market rally is bright red, I stared at the screen for a long time, honestly feeling a bit itchy inside, but my hand didn’t shake.
Nasdaq futures surged 1.25%, Micron pre-market +2.48%, SanDisk +3.22%, SOXL directly +7.77%, semiconductor ETF also +2.59%.
On the surface, it looks like AI is working again, but we need to break down where the money is coming from. Last week, Nasdaq dropped 4.5%, the CoreWeave credit issue pushed AI debt panic to the extreme, and VIX soared close to 20 on Friday.
Today’s high open is essentially short covering plus bargain hunting from oversold funds. JPMorgan reiterated an overweight on CoreWeave, saying concerns are "overdone," Nebius fell 25% last week and bounced 4% today, all reflecting space created by the drop.
Capital flow is very honest: storage and optical communication lead the gains because the South Korean finance minister said semiconductor prosperity will last until 2027, and Jensen Huang said orders are still pouring in. But note, this is a short-term reason given by news, not a fundamental reversal. On-chain pricing has long been playing the game of supporting tonight’s high open; my stance is clear: watch for a rebound recovery, don’t chase the highs.
I’d rather miss out than get caught in an overly aggressive opening surge. Meta’s earnings report this week is the real test; the AI narrative needs to be backed by real money.📊 $BTC Historical Bull and Bear Cycle Comparison Bitcoin’s previous market cycles show a recurring pattern: 🔹 2015–2017: Bull market — 35 months 🔹 2017–2018: Bear market — 12 months 🔹 2018–2021: Bull market — 35 months 🔹 2021–2022: Bear market — 12 months 🔹 2022–2025: Bull market — 35 months 🔹 2026–2027: The current cycle is unfolding. If the bear phase that began last October has continued for around 12 months, the historical timeline suggests we could be approaching a potential turningToday the market gave retail investors the easiest signal to fall for: SK Hynix rose 4.6%, Micron nearly 3%, Amazon up 5%, AI chips collectively rebounded, and the screen is full of calls saying "the bottom is here" again. I haven't moved a single one of my shorts on crypto and storage.
Interestingly, while the underlying stocks surged, the storage perpetual contracts actually slid down from the highs during the session. My short positions not only didn't lose but are recovering. This kind of divergence is exactly why I can hold: the stocks are doing an emotional rebound, while the perpetuals are pricing leverage with real money. No need to say which side is more honest.
The dumbest move in trend trading is to panic and close on a single rebound. The daily charts of $BTC and $ETH still show a clean bearish alignment; one rebound doesn't change the structure. Hold when you need to hold—that's basic skill, not bravery.#Meta's Massive AI Investment Enters the Return Verification Period
My core judgment is: This quarter's performance is very likely to easily beat expectations, but cash flow and capital expenditures will trigger intense battles between bulls and bears. I choose Yes
1. Advertising cash machine steadily ensures revenue Beat: Unlike giants that rely on selling cloud computing power to break even, Meta is the only US stock company that directly converts AI into a "quarterly advertising cash machine." Slight improvements in algorithm-driven Reels watch time and ad conversion rates can directly push up ad prices, making top-line revenue an "open-book exam."
2. The biggest risk is free cash flow being drained: Last quarter's CapEx reached as high as $31 billion, squeezing free cash flow down to only $780 million. More critically, Amazon can collect rent by buying cards, but Meta's card purchases are 100% internal consumption. Given Zuckerberg's personality of gambling recklessly regardless of cost, the earnings call will very likely throw out a 2027 CapEx new high guidance that will shock Wall Street.
3. Muse expectations overdrawn and inference costs backlash: In September, due to the blockbuster app Muse topping charts, the stock price surged 27%, prematurely drawing on positive momentum. But the inference electricity and depreciation costs in the early AI consumer explosion phase are pure losses, so Q3 profit margins are very likely to be pressured.
4. Buyback support ability weakened: In a high interest rate environment, market preference has shifted to "preserving cash flow." Tight cash flow means stock buyback ammunition shrinks, and earnings night volatility will significantly increase
$META Korean stocks opened lower again today: SK Hynix -5%+, Samsung -3%, erasing all gains from yesterday. US stock storage sector also weakened in after-hours trading.
How bad are Korean stocks? Three numbers:
1️⃣ From the beginning of the year to 10/14, foreign investors have net sold 203.7 trillion KRW (about 141.5 billion USD) on the KOSPI, with Samsung and SK Hynix accounting for 176 trillion KRW, or 86%. Foreign ownership of Samsung has dropped to its lowest level since 2008.
2️⃣ KOSPI fell from the June high of 9114 to 5554 on 10/15, a decline of about 39%, triggering a circuit breaker intraday. Since October, Samsung is down 21.8%, SK Hynix down 28.9%.
3️⃣ The market value of the National Pension Service (NPS) holdings in Korea has evaporated by 182 trillion KRW (137 billion USD), with SK Hynix and Samsung contributing 72%. This marks the first quarterly decline since Q4 2024.
Lee Jae-myung said he would "normalize" the stock market, but the market is not buying it.
The real question: How long can storage price increases last? How long can high profits be maintained?
The biggest misjudgment in storage stocks— the better the performance looks, the cheaper they seem. If the valuation denominator uses peak cyclical profits, once earnings adjust down, even a low PE can’t hold.
Key signal: If the weakness in US storage stocks continues into regular trading with increased volume and closes weak, the cross-market rebound looks more like a brief correction.#Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue?
Robinhood Q2: Revenue up 32%, net inflow 22 billion, sounds like a long queue outside a nightclub.
On-chain activity, however, has cooled off first—the trading volume and active addresses dropped quarter-on-quarter, like the DJ is still playing but half the dance floor has cleared.
What’s more contradictory: on-chain trading cooled down, but DeFi locked value and stablecoin supply are still rising. The money hasn’t left, but hands have gotten lazy.
The October 27 earnings report will focus on one thing: can stock and crypto trading still support revenue, does the new business really contribute, or is it just "good inflows, slow trading" left. Liquidation means mining? Welcome to brother Maji's comfort zone 😇
▶︎ Since 10.10, cumulative trading volume reached $1.56 billion
▶︎ Realized losses of $833,000, ranking 10th on the loss leaderboard
▶︎ Received 437,000 $PAPER airdrop (405,000 claimed), but the account still shows a loss of $424,000 after deduction
Brother mostly opens $ETH long positions on papetrade, with leverage ranging from 50x to 1000x, mostly 100x. He himself has posted multiple tweets praising papertrade's model
Portal 👉 0xad1215e79ed05c3e196a4e85066de41ec9004b41There is a dangerous misconception in DeFi: just because returns are credited daily, people think the risk decreases every day.
Recently, crypto Vaults have been gaining more attention, where funds are entrusted to strategy managers to earn yields through on-chain lending. Some strategies even offer annualized returns exceeding 20%.
But high yields do not come out of thin air. Collateral can plummet, liquidity can dry up, and smart contracts can have bugs.
When I look at yield products now, my first reaction is not to calculate how much can be earned in a year, but to ask: Where do the returns come from? Who bears the bad debt? Can I exit under extreme market conditions?
Understanding the source of returns is more important than being attracted by the yield numbers. $ETH 空单，为啥昨晚美股反弹，ETH却拉胯？简单说就三点：老美利息太高，钱存银行更香；ETF机构一直在抽血跑路；加上杠杆多头被一波清算，直接砸盘。看图上ETH现在软趴趴的，死死卡在弱势区。
2300这道坎守不住，就要去到1900了！#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ZEC The current BTC spot price is around 81625. The first image is an aggregated liquidation map across all exchanges, covering the three major platforms: SomeAn, OKX, and Bybit; the second image is the OKX single-platform perpetual contract liquidation map, displayed by leverage tiers. The 100x high leverage bars dominate, indicating a large accumulation of high-leverage positions in this price range. The red cumulative long liquidation intensity curve continues to decline in the low range to the left of the current price, meaning that the long positions forced liquidations at lower levels have basically been exhausted, and the momentum of long liquidation at low levels is weakening. The green cumulative short liquidation intensity curve rises continuously from the current price to the upper right. The 83300-83800 range has the highest short liquidation bar height, which is the core dense stop-loss zone for shorts above. Once the price attacks this area, it will trigger a chain of short forced liquidations, creating a short squeeze boost. The OKX market also confirms this structure, with high 100x leverage positions concentrated in the 80800~83800 range. High leverage positions are extremely sensitive to price fluctuations and can easily cause wick spikes and stop-loss sweeps. The current price is exactly stuck at the boundary of the dense long and short liquidation zones, representing a critical point of long-short position contention. Market conclusion: The strong forced liquidation of long positions below has been digested, weakening the short-term downward forced liquidation momentum; the first target above is the 83300-83800 short liquidation pool. If there is a volume breakout, it will trigger a short squeeze stampede. However, this range itself is also a previous trapped position relief pressure zone, with concentrated high leverage accumulation. A spike up is prone to a secondary wick spike, so it is not suitable for heavy long positions. Priority should be given to observing the effectiveness of a volume breakout. #ETF continuous outflow, BTC #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after listing will be revealed
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Honestly, after reviewing last week's ETF fund flows, my first reaction was "this is way too cold": BTC and ETH combined saw $549 million withdrawn in one week, which is quite notable even for this year. BTC has had net outflows for two consecutive weeks, ETH is worse with three consecutive weeks; since October, ETH-related ETFs have seen nearly $1 billion in net outflows.
What does this indicate? Risk appetite is still outside the door, and inside the market it's just back-and-forth churning; a decent trending market is hard to come by. ETH redemptions are more intense than BTC's; once weakness forms, it's harder to stop; retail investors trying to bottom-fish can't match the scale of institutional redemptions.
Looking closer: last Friday, BTC had a single-day net outflow exceeding $80 million, ETH outflow was close to 30,000 tokens, with BlackRock as the main seller; October's monthly ETH ETF outflow has set a new annual single-month record. More obviously, institutions have less patience for ETH than BTC; for ETH to recover, large funds need to turn back first.
A few suggestions:
① Before ETF funds stop bleeding, treat any rebound as a retracement; do not chase or add positions;
② BTC is relatively more resilient; after a pullback, it is more likely to stabilize first, and capital inflows will probably return to BTC first;
③ SOL has an upgrade narrative, but without support from the broader market, don't expect an independent rally.
My conclusion remains unchanged: without incremental funds returning from outside, rebounds are paper tigers; controlling position size and managing your trades is more important than anything else. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight, revealed tonight. Netflix will release its Q3 earnings after the U.S. stock market closes tonight. The company guides revenue of $12.86 billion (up 12% year-over-year), adjusted EPS of $0.82, net profit of $3.45 billion, and operating margin of 33.2%, with Wall Street consensus basically aligned. The forecast for this quarter is "profit likely to exceed expectations, revenue just meets expectations": full implementation of price increases in the U.S. and Mexico plus buybacks support EPS, but growth has slowed to about 12%, and viewing time only increased by 2%. What truly determines the stock price is not tonight's numbers, but the Q4 and 2027 guidance, the pace of achieving the $3 billion advertising target, and cost discipline after layoffs and leadership changes; full-year guidance is revenue of $51.0–51.4 billion and a profit margin of 31.5%. The overall scenario is profit beats and revenue meets expectations, with the bias toward positive or negative depending on the wording of the guidance. This is not investment advice. $CHA
Here's a short recommendation for everyone: Bawang Chaji CHA. It went public in 2023, with most of the founder's shares held by an offshore trust. Since its IPO, the stock price has been declining continuously. It's quite interesting to consider at what price the shares placed into the trust are valued. If valued at the IPO price, the founder would owe 370 million in taxes, which is half of the market value of his holdings.
Currently, there is no public information indicating that the founder plans to sell shares to raise money for tax payments. In contrast, Haidilao and Qudian have already arranged funds for their tax payments, so Bawang Chaji is very likely to suddenly trigger a major negative event.SKDD was hammered down 9% last night, but this morning it fully recovered with a bullish candle. However, it is now trading 7% above the net asset value of the US stock, so I am not chasing it. To be clear, SKDD is not a meme coin; it is GraniteShares' 2x short daily ETF on SK Hynix, with perpetual contracts of the same name available on OKX and Binance, trading 24 hours. Buying it is equivalent to shorting SK Hynix, with a 2x inverse leverage. Last night, US storage stocks rebounded strongly, with Hynix ADR rising 4.7%, but SKDD spot was directly hammered down 9.2%, closing at 11.08. This morning, the Korean KOSPI dropped 3%, Hynix Korean shares reversed down 5%, and the perpetual contract surged ahead, pulling up to 11.8 in one move. I think this is the 24-hour perpetual contract trading ahead of tonight's US market, but it is already trading at a 7% premium to spot NAV. When the market opens tonight, it will likely converge back to 11.08, so buying more now means first eating the premium loss. Also, it is a daily reset inverse leveraged product, so it is only suitable for intraday trading; holding it longer will cause losses due to decay. Hynix's earnings report is on October 28, so longs and shorts are currently betting with their lives. I am not chasing this premium. There are two approaches: if it pulls back and stabilizes at 11.08 and Korean stocks continue to fall, then lightly go long to try to catch a rebound, targeting 12.06 and 13.33; if it breaks below 10.50, the long position is invalidated. If it rebounds to 12.06–13.33 and stalls while US storage strengthens, then lightly short it, which is equivalent to going long on Hynix with the trend; if it holds above 13.33, the short position is invalidated. $SKDD $SKHY #StockPerpetual #SKHynix Netflix will release its Q3 earnings report on October 20. The market is currently focused on two things: revenue growth and advertising business.
The company's own forecast is Q3 revenue of $12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%. Operating margin is expected to be 33.2%, compared to 28.2% in the same period last year, an improvement of 5 percentage points. Both revenue and margin are rising, but the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to previous years. The market's concern is exactly this: Netflix's subscription growth has peaked, so what will support it going forward?
The advertising business has become a new focus. Netflix is launching a low-cost ad tier, aiming to use ad revenue to make up for the shortfall in subscription growth. This earnings report will be watched to see if the advertising business has truly scaled, whether subscription users are still growing, and if the margin can be maintained above 33%. If ad revenue exceeds expectations, the market may allow room for valuation recovery. If ad revenue falls short of expectations, combined with slowing subscription growth, the stock price will face significant pressure.
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #Chip stocks rebound after eight consecutive declines, can AI trading fix it?
After eight consecutive days of decline, chip stocks finally caught a breather. Last night, US stock futures rebounded, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising nearly 1% at one point, and some semiconductor and optical communication stocks also climbed back during the night session.
How to view this rebound? Don’t rush to call it a reversal. Just look at TSMC. Q3 revenue and net profit both hit record highs, with explosive performance. So what happened? The US ADR stock still fell after the earnings report was released. This reveals the market’s bottom line: big money right now doesn’t care how much you earned this quarter; they fear the AI investment payback period is too long and that valuations have already been stretched to the limit. As soon as the earnings report hints at "burning more cash than expected" or "growth peaking," the reaction is to sell off.
Therefore, this rebound is most likely a technical oversold correction rather than a fundamental turnaround. There’s a saying in the community that’s quite realistic: the sharp drop has already priced in short-term negative factors, improving the risk-reward ratio. But to truly confirm the bottom, we need to see if it can hold steady this time. If it keeps hitting new lows without any news, it really means this downtrend isn’t over yet.
For our crypto circle, the impact is direct. AI hardware and semiconductors are the leaders of this global risk appetite wave; if the leader is sick, BTC and Ethereum, the smaller players, will struggle to stay unaffected. If tech stocks can stabilize sentiment with this rebound, BTC will have the confidence to test resistance above. If the AI sector continues to cut valuations, liquidity in the crypto market will be further drained $BTC Last night, U.S. tech stocks finally saw a rebound. The Nasdaq index rose 1.11%, the semiconductor index increased by 1.6%, ending a streak of eight consecutive trading days of decline. However, Bitcoin's performance was not as strong. This morning, BTC was still hovering around $82,000, and there was no significant inflow of funds into the U.S. spot ETF. Meanwhile, Strategy (MSTR) announced the latest execution status of its coin-buying plan. There are a few things worth noting today. 1️⃣ U.S. tech stocks rebounded significantly, so why didn't BTC surge along? Last night, the three major U.S. stock indices performed as follows: Nasdaq up 1.11%, S&P 500 up 0.41%, Dow Jones down 0.07%. Among them, semiconductor stocks stood out. The market had been worried that the large scale of AI investments and rising corporate financing costs would cause tech stocks to decline continuously. Last night, some funds re-entered tech stocks, driving the Nasdaq rebound. But Bitcoin did not show a clear breakthrough in sync. According to Reuters data as of the morning of October 20, BTC was about $81,907. I think there is a phenomenon worth noting here: a rebound in U.S. stocks does not necessarily mean the crypto market will strengthen simultaneously. Bitcoin is influenced not only by tech stocks and macro sentiment but also depends on its own capital inflows. Therefore, one cannot assume BTC will continue to rise just because the Nasdaq is up. 2️⃣ Did Bitcoin ETFs see fund inflows last night? According to Farside Inve $ETH is bearish, currently priced at 2,394.7, down 0.97% intraday, next target to test the previous low at 2,370.74. The decline is not large, but the liquidation distribution is very telling. Long positions liquidated $13.28 million, shorts $9.87 million, with a similar number of trades on both sides, but individual long trades are significantly heavier. The heavy long holders are being squeezed out, while shorts haven't added much. This deleveraging is not yet complete, and few are stepping in to buy the rebound. Options are more direct. The put/call open interest ratio is 0.96, still balanced, but the put/call volume on the day surged to 1.31, indicating new money is buying downside protection. DVOL at 52.4 is not panic-level; hedging is orderly, and this market looks like a slow grind downward. The chart shows moving averages in a bearish alignment and volume shrinking on rebounds, consistent with this directional view. The condition to turn bullish: reclaiming above the intraday high of 2,445.97, which would invalidate this bearish logic. #SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report after going public is about to be revealed. The real protagonist this week isn't crypto, but valuation. Chip stocks have been cut by about 20% in two weeks, and tech stocks just finished their worst week since last April — all for the same reason: the market is starting to doubt whether the money spent on AI was worth it. The first full quarterly report from a listed giant is coming out, and it's not measuring aerospace business, but whether the market is still willing to pay for the pricing logic of "adding capital expenditure to the story." When risk appetite tightens, crypto is always the first to react. The financial line isn't complicated either: the 10-year yield is still above 5%, risk-free returns are higher than dividends, so money should naturally flow to bonds. Under this cost of capital, any quarterly report that falls short of expectations will be labeled as "evidence of overvaluation," and the cut valuation will transmit liquidity pressure to crypto. I know the transmission mechanism well: in November 2022, crypto was the source; this time crypto is downstream, the direction is reversed but the mechanism remains — whoever is most leveraged gets liquidated first. My own stance: BTC is pressed at the ETF cost line of 81,500; as long as it holds 81,000, I consider it sideways rather than a downtrend; if it loses 80,000 and closes below, that means risk assets are being repriced together, don't expect crypto to have an independent rally. I've seen many chasing rebounds at this position. Many may not agree with me, but I definitely have more data analyzed and a strategy of my own.This 83000 wall has worn down both bulls and bears without mercy.
In 24 hours, $BTC bounced from 81648 to 83035, barely catching a breath before dropping back to 81782. $ETH was even softer, touching 2443 then sliding down to 2401. $SOL was a bit tougher, rising from 103.4 to above 106, currently at 104.73, but that’s just "relatively resistant to decline," not "strong on its own." The weekly chart shows: $BTC -1.26%, $ETH -4.65%, $SOL -3.47%. No crash, but no one is really pushing it up either.
The most frustrating thing about this market is that it’s not a one-sided attack; it hits from both sides. The longs are ground down by selling pressure above 83000, while the shorts see buyers near 81648 and don’t dare to chase. What’s being worn down isn’t just positions, it’s patience.
Breaking it down, why is 83000 so tough? It’s not just a psychological barrier. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still hovering around 4.2%–4.3%, with oil prices and geopolitical inflation expectations keeping rates high. Whenever risk assets try to rally, yields push them back down. More specifically, around 83000 corresponds to the average cost line of spot Bitcoin ETP products; trapped funds want to exit once they break even, so selling pressure is real and stacked there. The same goes for ETH at 2400, where whales have 20x leveraged longs, and ETFs are continuously flowing in, but the 2400–2500 range just won’t break, indicating buying interest but not enough to overcome resistance in one go.
There’s news, but nothing game-changing. Strive bought 1223 $BTC at an average price of 81734 from Wednesday to Friday last week, holding 36818 coins total, with their cost line near current prices—they’re not here for short-term plays. The CFTC has also approved perpetual contracts in the US, with Kalshi’s BTCPERP cleared, providing a compliant leverage entry for US funds long-term, but this is a slow-moving factor, not fuel to break 83000 tonight. There are positives, but not enough strength to lift the market.
So don’t rush to bottom-fish or chase shorts now. Watch 81648; if it breaks, then consider defense. If the upside can’t hold above 83000 with volume, treat all rebounds as mere corrections.
Endure. In this market, whoever gets anxious first pays the tuition.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Do you think 83000 will break first or be worn down first? Drop a direction in the comments, and check back in a few days to see who got schooled by this wall.
#ETF continuous outflows, can BTC rebound continue? #SpaceX’s first full quarterly report post-IPO to be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, ad business becomes new focus