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Last night's breakout was disproved. BTC peaked at 84352, then crashed directly in the early morning hours, currently around 81900, down over 2% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 81800. ETH is down 4% at 2430, SOL down 7% at 104, with strong coins experiencing the harshest catch-up declines. As mentioned yesterday, if it doesn't reclaim above 83500, treat it as a false breakout. The market voted with its feet in the early morning, and those chasing at 84000 were left hanging again. This is the significance of not entering before confirmation. Now the market has returned to the familiar script; the 82500 to 83500 range hasn't broken out but rather pulled back after a false breakout upwards. This pattern reflects short-term bearish sentiment because funds chasing highs are trapped above. A rebound to 83000-83500 will first face selling pressure from those trying to break even. But there's no need to panic. Watch two levels: first, 81000, near last week's consolidation lower boundary—holding on low volume indicates just a pullback; second, 80000 to 80400, previous lows and a secondary buying zone. As long as this area doesn't break down effectively, the double bottom structure is even more solid. The real warning is if volume surges to break below 80000 and fails to recover, meaning the 80400 wick isn't the bottom, and the next support is at 78000. In terms of strategy, hold your spot positions without adding or reducing. The buying discipline remains unchanged: buy near 80000 without hesitation, but only after volume contracts and stabilization is confirmed by seeing support. Don't rush to bottom-fish in futures; catching falling knives and chasing highs are equally dangerous during a downtrend. Before the US stock market opens today, first see if 81000 holds, then watch the attitude around 80000 tonight. Staying put is the best move for now. Near 2460 for BTC on 10.13, Qingcang Kong, defense at 2500, targets 2405/2360
For those wanting to go long, wait for stabilization near 2400 before entering, defense at 2350, targets 2460/2500.
BTC short-term has been continuously falling, current price 2423 still weak, 2460-2500 is resistance above, first watch for support near 2405, if broken, look for further downside.
Strong USD, high oil prices, combined with Middle East shipping risks and US CPI on Wednesday, any news changes could accelerate the market at any time.
9 years trading experience, do not chase sharp drops, look for positions on rebounds.
Accurately judge direction, and more importantly, ensure risk control is in place. $ETH $ZEC $W #CPI and PPI releases imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test #Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report? Microsoft plans to build 1 million AI chips on its own. Does this have anything to do with the crypto world?
First question: Whose turf is it taking?
NVIDIA. Microsoft doesn’t want to keep paying tolls to Huang (NVIDIA’s CEO), so developing its own chips means cooking its own meal.
Second question: What does this have to do with the crypto market?
Honestly, not much direct connection. But AI narratives are one of the engines driving this market cycle, and Microsoft doubling down shows the computing power arms race hasn’t stopped—the story continues.
Last question: Should short-term traders panic?
No need. This news doesn’t directly impact crypto prices; it’s more background noise for sentiment.
What really matters is where the money flows, not how many nanometers the chips use.
To be fair, everyone wants to get on the AI train, but whether crypto tokens can rise with it depends on whether the funds agree.
Don’t just rush in when you see the word “AI”—first see if the market gives you the green light.
#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ #阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点 $NVDA 市场这波回落，不是单一事件带下来的。宏观和行业都没什么增量信息，更像是存量资金自己在主动降杠杆。流动性预期一模糊，高Beta资产先被卖，ETH跌幅大于BTC，风险偏好收缩已经写在盘面上了。没有新叙事承接，前期获利盘和高位杠杆仓位就容易连锁减仓，价格只能往下找更扎实的成交支撑。
BTC现在卡在82,000美元下方，这个位置是关键争夺区。下方80,000美元是整数心理关口，有效跌破，可能打开向78,000美元下探的空间。上方85,000美元是短期压力，只有重新站稳，才能说调整结束、重新转强。
ETH 2,435美元，24小时跌2.14%，比BTC弱，ETH/BTC比价还在走低。下方2,400美元是下一道关键支撑，丢了补跌风险会加大；上方2,600美元是反弹压力，收复前别轻易谈反转。
HYPE 80美元，24小时跌4.66%，跌幅明显大于主流资产，这种币流动性偏薄，情绪驱动明显，反弹弹性大，跌起来也容易放大亏损，追高风险高，仓位得严格控。
没有新叙事的下跌，最考验仓位。BTC守住80,000美元，再谈反弹；跌破，就顺势降低风险敞口。
$ETH $BTC $HYPE Who understands, family? Woke up to the sky falling 💔
Long position opened at 2686.31, woke up to it dropping straight to 2431.34.
This is the worst loss since entering the market, lying in bed for half a day unable to recover.
But don’t panic yet, first steady your mindset, endure slowly, there will be a day of recovery. #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report? #Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? $BTC $ETH $ZEC Crude oil prices surged to 107, and the entire crypto market shifted from a structural rally to indiscriminate decline 😂, so let's defend first.
1. The three major macro obstacles are now hard to resolve: the 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.70%, a new high since 2002; oil prices are nearly approaching $110; $BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly $400 million in October.
I originally thought BTC would fluctuate between 82,000 and 81,000 yesterday, but with a risk-free yield at 5.7%, it directly broke below 82,000.
2. Even the speculative coins that occasionally rose last week have mostly undergone significant pullbacks. For example, the three speculative coins from last week $STRK /MAGIC/$NEAR are all being heavily sold today.
Moreover, these speculative coins are dropping much harder than mainstream coins, which is normal. I just said yesterday that they were being heavily speculated on, and the cooling off starts from the most crowded places.
However, I’m quite surprised they’re falling today; I thought the hype would last a few more days since I expected the market to trend upward with fluctuations this week.
CPI data is about to be released, so I’ll wait for the data before deciding. If it falls below 80,000 now, I’ll buy some more at the bottom.The 24-hour decline of SOL has become quite noticeable, but more important than how much it has dropped is understanding: where exactly does the current price stand within this fluctuation? As of 08:31 Beijing time on October 13, 2026, the latest spot trading price of SOL/USDT on OKX is 103.82 USDT, with a rolling 24-hour drop of about 6.69%. During the same period, the highest price was 113.4 USDT and the lowest was 103.05 USDT. Looking at these numbers together reveals a very intuitive phenomenon: the latest price is already close to the 24-hour low, and noticeably farther from the high. What does this mean? Don’t rush to judge the direction yet. 1️⃣ The decline tells you the change, the position tells you the situation Many people, when looking at the market, habitually check the price change first. Seeing a drop of about 6.69%, the first reaction might be that it has fallen quite a bit and wonder if a rebound is coming next. But the decline itself cannot answer this question. The 24-hour price change describes the latest price relative to the reference price 24 hours ago, while the highest and lowest prices reflect the two extremes that the actual transaction prices have reached during this period. They answer different questions. The current SOL price of 103.82 USDT is closer to 103.05 USDT rather than 113.4 USDT. This indicates that within the current observation window, the price is still at a relatively low position. However, being close to the low does not mean the low has been defended, nor does it mean the downside space has disappeared. 2️⃣ The current price is below the hourly close STRK 4h, current price 0.08695
Resistance 0.09709, support 0.08249
After a previous surge, it has continued to decline, with the price having fallen below all short-term EMAs, currently in a correction channel, following the overall market weakness. A rebound that holds above the 0.09709 resistance level is needed to have a chance to reverse the short-term downtrend; if it breaks below the 0.08249 support, further decline is expected.
News: The market is re-evaluating the Starknet ecosystem, discussing its L1 transformation expectations and narrative shortcomings, combined with the current market sell-off, leading to capital flight for risk aversion.
$BTC $ZEC $W
#CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are expected in the October 15 earnings report? The cooked duck has flown away, and I even lost some rice on top. Staring at the market, I really want to give myself a shake—why can't I take profits every time I’m in the green?
$BTC current price 82,480, down 1.4%. It touched 84,200 in the early morning, my account briefly turned positive, and I was planning to push a bit more before exiting. Hesitated for a few seconds, then a big bearish candle smashed it down to 82,300. The breakeven line at 83,800 turned from underfoot to a ceiling. Profit turned into loss, all with just one candle from the main force.
$SOL current price 110.8, down 2.3%. Watching it slide down from 116, I thought it could rebound, but it got stuck halfway down the slope. I placed an order at 112.5, now just above 110, the daily drop was straightforward. Thought I was picking up a bargain, but actually caught a flying knife. The big players seem to be watching my small position closely; every time I buy, it crashes.
$ETH current price 2,515, down 0.5%. Ethereum still has the old problem: it never misses a drop but always plays dead on the rise. It touched 2,560 then softened back, I added two lots, just breathing along with the market. Already worn down with no temper, gains and losses are left to fate.
In the end, greed plus slow hands—these two are what the market specializes in punishing. Next time I profit, I’ll pocket half first and push the rest to breakeven. Don’t let the meat in your mouth fly away again.
Just personal venting, not investment advice.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#Voice of Trading: Your experience deserves to be heard Good morning everyone, I originally wanted to post earlier, but around 7 o'clock, the market continued to drop, so I decided to wait until the market stabilizes a bit before posting.
1. BTC/USDT Perpetual / $BTC
BTC continues to fall toward our target price.
Yesterday I predicted there would be a second wave of rise to get closer to the upper trendline, but the price fell back instead.
It's okay, during this time, I didn't hold any long or short BTC positions because the space is limited.
So let's wait and see how the price performs around 80000; this is a place to try going long, with a stop loss at 79500.
If it breaks down, we will continue to see 78000.
For those who need to build spot positions, you can continue to do so now, but as you know, don't fully load your spot positions at once; leave 20%-30% and continue to add gradually later.
2. ETH/USDT Perpetual $ETH
I already reduced half of my ETH position last night.
Because I expected BTC to test upward a bit, driving ETH to rebound slightly, then fall.
This is actually fine; ETH has already reached my target take-profit level this morning, so I took full profit.
Of course, I will continue to watch the price reaction at 2400; I might go long again in the next couple of days, and this time the position can be a bit heavier.
3. SOL/USDT Perpetual $SOL
Trading SOL is cost-inefficient; consider buying spot instead!The $40 billion buyback stopped just like that.
Last night, storage stocks collectively plummeted. Micron fell below 1000, SanDisk dropped 6 points, Hynix fell 3 points, Philadelphia Semiconductor dropped over 2 points, and Bitcoin was smashed down to 81247.
The answer came this morning: Samsung and SK Hynix prematurely terminated the largest buyback plan in history, $40 billion, no more buying.
What is a buyback? It's the foundation of this round of storage market. When a company buys its own shares, it tells the market, "My stock is cheap, I'll back it up." Now that the backing is withdrawn, it's scarier than any bad news.
There's an even more fatal detail. ChangXin Technology announced a breakthrough in 4F² architecture, leading the Korean giants by two years in unit architecture. One side stops buybacks, the other is being chased down—this is a very ugly picture for the Korean duo. Without the foundation, no matter how beautiful the building is, it will shake.
I shorted SNDK and was taught a lesson by the bullish candle at 1791. Since then, when I look at storage, I only watch one thing: how much expectation is priced in. Now not only is the expectation fully priced in, the foundation is also being pulled out. The earnings report is real, the buyback stop is real, both are true, but the price only listens to the latter.
I've been watching the storage sector for over a month, and for the first time, I say, don't touch it in the short term. It's not that I am bearish, but after the foundation is pulled out, it needs to be rebuilt, and you can't rush it.
What do you think, is the buyback termination the exhaustion of good news, or is the cycle peaking?
#VolatilityRadar: Coin Movement Watch $SNDK $BTC $ETH Got up at 6:30 AM, checked $ZEC, price was 1208, which hit yesterday's psychological buy target, so I went all in with 6x leverage on the sub-account; while brushing my teeth after getting up, I saw a notification that $BTC dropped below 82000, and $ZEC was already at a floating loss of 150 dollars; no indicators to back this, just a subjective judgment, other coins would be dragged down by BTC, so I decisively stopped loss and cleared the position, then immediately opened a half-position short, floating profit of 298 dollars. Because I had to go to work and couldn't keep watching the market, I took profit and closed the position, now in a flat position.Good morning brothers! Yesterday's signal already rebounded to resistance, so be aware that it will retest the support again. If it can't break above 84500, it will only be a regular rebound without a direct breakout. Currently, it looks like it will perfectly complete this second retest. The key support for the second retest remains at 80000. If 80K holds steady, it will continue to oscillate; if it breaks below here, a regular correction will follow. The target for the regular correction is 75000-78000. Reaching this range is still a buying opportunity. For the short term, focus on the strength of the second retest. It hasn't ended yet. This is just my personal opinion for reference!周一美股开市（哥伦布日，债市休市），整体是价值轮动盖过了指数表面的平静。道指能涨，纳指被科技拖着走，标普几乎不动，说明资金在避高估值、找确定性，而不是全面退场。 道琼斯收51850.55，涨195点，+0.38%。标普500收7807.24，跌4点，-0.06%，离10月6日高点只差一点。纳斯达克收27245.90，跌120点，-0.44%。罗素2000跌0.45%。费城半导体指数跌约2.7%，科技板块是主要拖累。八个板块收高，能源领涨约1.4%-1.5%，必选消费和通信服务也强，金融提前银行季报也有人买。成交量明显偏轻，节假日效应明显。 盘面在交易两件事。一是中东风险溢价。胡塞武装周末攻击利雅得机场并波及油轮，布伦特油涨到106.65美元附近，涨约1.8%，能源股跟着走。二是AI硬件的高位回吐。光学和存储相关名字继续消化此前过于乐观的预期，Lumentum单日跌近10%，之前因“产能卖到2029”暴涨，现在市场开始问交付和回报的节奏。软件那边相对好一点，Salesforce获美银升级后涨约2%。OpenAI收入口径差异（约500亿与此前更高数字）的余波还在，资金对纯AI基建故事更挑剔10.13 BTC near 82000 with Qingcang support, defense at 82700, targets 80800/80300. Brothers who missed the support yesterday still have a chance to get in today.
Those wanting to go long can wait near 80000 for stabilization, defense at 79400, targets 81200/82000.
BTC 1H has fallen from 86976 continuously, lowest wick at 80344, currently 81422 is just a weak rebound, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, 82000-82500 is resistance above, 80300 is the immediate key support.
USD is strengthening, oil price breaks through 107 dollars, combined with Middle East situation and this week's CPI, any slight change in news could accelerate the market again.
9 years of trading experience: don't chase sharp drops, only look for positions on rebounds.
Don't get thrown off by others making profits; real opportunities require a plan to seize. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #CPI and PPI releases imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation #TSMC Q3 revenue hits new high, what to watch in the October 15 earnings report? Before the rate hike, Ethereum surging? I don't believe it.
Conclusion straight up: it won't break through.
Looking at volume, it rebounded about 150 points from 2406 to 2564, but the 4-hour volume actually shrank, and buying power can't keep up. The 2560-2600 area above is a dense zone of trapped positions, combined with the 30-day moving average resistance, every time it approaches it becomes a point for shorts to add positions.
The funding situation is worse: BitMine stopped increasing ETH holdings, validators exiting the queue surged from 166,000 to 851,000, and a large amount of staked ETH will unlock in the next two weeks. Supply increases, demand decreases.
The Fed minutes show most officials support continuing rate hikes, liquidity will only tighten further.
So this rebound looks more like handing chips to the shorts. My short position at 2671 is still open, with a floating profit of 400%. If it breaks 2600, I will add to my position. The short-term support below is 2497; if it breaks, look for 2400.
Surging before the rate hike? I don't believe it.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? Crypto Circle Morning Express｜10.13
Morning.
$BTC total market cap has climbed back above 4 trillion, up about 5.6% overall in the past 24 hours. Around 216 million USD worth of liquidations occurred network-wide in the last hour, mostly short positions.
A few key points:
1. Binance has compensated 283 million USD to users affected by USDe de-pegging; the previously seen “zero price” in spot was just a display bug, not an actual asset wipeout.
2. Fed voting member Harker stated: policy will shift toward tightening, favoring smaller, more frequent rate adjustments.
3. The UK High Court ruled on the Qian Zhimin (Blue Sky Gree) case: the recovery of 61,000 BTC is subject to Chinese law, involving about 4.1 billion GBP, and victims are unlikely to receive subsequent appreciation.
4. The FSB (Financial Stability Board) warned: global stablecoins have yet to face a major stress test; cross-border regulatory monitoring needs strengthening.
5. HKEX today launched Pando’s second spot SOL ETF, ticker 2831.HK, with a 0.6% management fee, no staking, no leverage.
On trading, QCP’s view: the options market currently shows a mix of defensive and bullish sentiment. If it can firmly break above 87k, the next target is 94k. There is about 180 million USD of sell orders stacked near 84,500, with buy support at 82,000.
This week’s main events remain Powell’s speech and the CPI data.ETH一夜闪崩4.2%！2411血洗近10亿，谁在凌晨屠杀多头？
屠杀规模有多大？
据CoinGlass数据，最近1小时全市场 1.45亿美元 被清算，其中多单占比高达 97.5%，空头几乎毫发无伤。过去24小时ETH单币种爆仓 5814万美元，多单占64%。2411这个低点，正好击穿了此前提到的 2401美元 关键清算带——若继续下破，主流CEX累计多单清算强度将达 5.53亿美元。
三重压力同时引爆：
① 中东火药桶再燃。胡塞武装袭击沙特石油设施，布伦特原油升至 107.25美元，WTI突破 94美元，通胀担忧重燃，风险资产集体挨刀。
② 美债收益率创24年新高。10年期美债收益率触及 5.36%，30年期升至2002年以来最高水平，持有无息资产的机会成本骤增。
③ ETF连续9日失血。上周ETH现货ETF净流出 5.42亿美元，其中贝莱德ETHA单周流出 4.77亿美元，创今年最差纪录。 Woke up to find $BTC back at the 81k level again, so it looks like my $BTC long position was closed very well, otherwise I would have started losing 450u.
Trading still needs to focus on higher timeframes (starting from 4-hour candles). I opened a Bitcoin long because the 1-hour candle broke above the 120-day moving average, but at that time the 4-hour candle actually showed a sharp top and pullback signal after touching the 120 MA.
In other words, signals from medium and large timeframes are not aligned, so at this time it's best to pay attention to the larger timeframe, as the medium and small timeframes have too much noise interference.
Meanwhile, my two short positions $MAGIC and bome are starting to show floating profits. Bome shorted from 0.001 down to 0.00077, and it feels like the downside is limited, considering finding a suitable time to close it!
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test I monitored 20 on-chain addresses and found a net sell-off of as much as 35 million pons. (Top 20 holdings on-chain, statistics as of September 30, excluding exchanges and pools, etc., up to today). This data looks quite overwhelming!
From the data on October 11, daily transaction fees and protocol revenue decreased by 25.14% and 21.4% respectively compared to the previous day. The data is still too poor; there's no choice, the drop was inevitable.Liquidation countdown: (life extension version).
At 08:26 this morning, waking up, these two positions are still bleeding, and the health bars are even shorter.
SNDK, 50x leverage, estimated liquidation price 1084.4. Margin left only 9.28U, maintenance margin rate dropped from 692% to 569.82%. There is about 25% space left before liquidation, but with 50x leverage, if the price drops another 2%, the system will start the death stare. Yesterday it was said the neck was under the guillotine, today the blade is already pressed against the back of the neck.
ZHIPU, 10x leverage, return rate -172.90%, for ZHIPU, the liquidation price 50.55 is just a thin sheet of glass away. 10x leverage on small coins is not investing, it's like buying a lottery ticket, and one that you already know you won't win before the draw.
The most outrageous is the account structure. The two long positions in SNDK and ZHIPU are on life support in ICU, and the ETH and BTC longs are also bleeding.
So the liquidation countdown is not a scare tactic. SNDK liquidation price 1084.4, ZHIPU liquidation price 50.55, it still looks distant, but under the triple squeeze of small coins + high leverage + funding rate, a 20% drop in one day is like child's play.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? #Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? $BTC $ETH $ZEC Unity of knowledge and action, why is it so difficult?
Clearly, the MACD daily chart shows a bearish divergence, indicating a high probability of a market pullback, yet I still can't control my own hands.
When profitable, I am unwilling to take profits; after the price falls below the cost, I am reluctant to accept losses, choosing to hold the position and even cancel stop-loss orders. In the end, I even add to losing positions against the trend, trying to average down the cost, turning a light position into a heavy one, and the more I lose, the less willing I am to admit mistakes.
In fact, the market has given opportunities.
During the previous big drop, the market offered chances to rebound and reduce positions, but I did not cherish them. When Bitcoin rebounded to around the Fibonacci 0.618 level, it encountered resistance and formed a large bearish candle on the hourly chart, closing at the lowest point. These signals were clearly seen, but because of unwillingness, I chose to ignore them. The same mistakes keep repeating.
When prices rise, I fear missing out and blindly open positions; when prices fall, I fear admitting mistakes and refuse to stop losses; when losses expand, I try to recover by adding positions.
Ultimately, it’s not that I don’t understand the principles, but greed and fear have taken over.
Always hoping to double in a day or multiply tenfold in a week, yet unable to calmly accept a normal stop loss. Always wanting to catch every market move, but unwilling to admit that I can be wrong too.
What’s truly frightening is not the loss itself, but the continuous bigger mistakes made to avoid losses.
This time, I don’t want to comfort myself by blaming the market conditions.
Going forward, I won’t rush to recover losses or blindly pursue doubling. I will rebuild trading rules, learn to take profits, stop losses, and stay out of the market; no longer covering mistakes by adding positions, no longer avoiding losses by holding on.$ETH: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 2,450-2,460 range (EMA5 and previous small platform resistance zone) and then enter short after resistance.
· Target the previous low at 2,405 first; if broken effectively, look at 2,380. Set stop loss above 2,500.
Core basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour level, EMA5/10/20 diverge downward, price is suppressed below all moving averages, rebound highs are continuously decreasing, confirming a short-term weak trend.
2. Systematic market decline: Figure 2 shows mainstream coins sharply falling across the board ($SOL down 6%, FIL down 10%, $STRK down 29%), panic sentiment spreading in the market, lacking independent strength.
3. Whale chips causing long liquidation: Figure 3 shows the average long cost at 2,551, currently deeply underwater (unrealized loss of 40.88 million U). Heavy trapped positions near 2,550 above, rebounds to this level will face forced selling pressure, making shorting with favorable risk-reward ratio.
#Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation Set take profit near 80500, wait for tonight's upward spike to short again, see how high it can spike, expected to approach the top of wave B, might even break the top of wave B. If tomorrow's PPI exceeds expectations, it will accelerate the decline of wave C.The most honest signal in the current market is trading volume. BTC is declining with shrinking volume in the $81,000-$82,000 range, ETH is weakly consolidating between $2,450-$2,500, and the volume does not support a reversal. Without volume confirmation, any "stop in decline" is just a continuation of the shrinking volume downtrend, not a bottom.
A bottom requires three signals to appear simultaneously:
First, ETF outflows stop. The daily net outflow of BTC and ETH spot ETFs returns to zero or turns into net inflows. This is the first solid signal of improved capital flow, more honest than any technical indicator.
Second, leverage cleansing is complete. The proportion of long liquidations drops from the current 73% to below 50%, indicating the market is no longer a one-sided slaughter. The current disparity in long and short liquidations shows the cleansing is not yet finished.
Third, a sustained decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year yield falls from 5.24% to below 5%, not just a 1-2 basis point fluctuation but a continuous downward trend. Before this, any rebound is a pulse, not a trend.
In terms of operations, BTC stabilizes with shrinking volume at $81,000-$82,000 plus continuous net inflows in ETFs for 2-3 days; lightly go long with a stop loss at $79,500 and targets at $83,400-$83,900. If the daily close breaks below $79,000, do not catch the falling knife. ETH currently has less favorable odds than BTC; $2,401 is the stop loss line, $2,636 is the first target, but under the background of systematic ETF withdrawal, this is only short-term speculation, not a portfolio strategy.Observation: Both crypto and stocks are hit hard, no one can escape the macro liquidity drain
It's not just the crypto market taking a hit; US tech stocks are equally brutal.
Micron (MU) fell 2.42%, SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 2.87%, SK Hynix (SKHYNIX) declined 2.61%, and the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL) plunged 4.01%. Even SpaceX (SPCX) fell 1%.
On the crypto side, BTC retreated to 81323, down 1.65%; ETH broke below 2421, crashing 4.26%.
What exactly happened?
First, the US dollar index surged to a high level, combined with Brent crude oil holding firm at $106, severely draining macro liquidity.
Second, Broadcom and Intel CEOs warned that AI infrastructure funding costs are too high, causing the market to question returns, directly hammering the semiconductor and tech sectors.
Third, CPI data will be released tomorrow night, prompting large funds to collectively retreat to avoid risk.
Crypto and stocks move in tandem, sharing the same heat and cold. Big money is waiting for the macro shoe to drop; at this critical moment, watching more and acting less is better than anything else.
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test BTC has successfully (for the bears) lost the steady uptrend on the 3- and 4-hour timeframes. The basic targets and potential breakdown levels are shown in the screenshots. As can be seen, the furthest basic target is $80,984. As previously mentioned, we interpret this as confirmation of the version that the high of the rebound from October 8 was on October 12, at the level of $84,352. And further decline will continue to new local lows. On this signal, as planned, we once again added to our August short position, which raised the breakeven level from 78,582,BTC 82,048｜84K failed to hold, the market has returned to a key support level.
BTC has fallen back near 82K again, indicating that selling pressure above remains heavy. Previously, support appeared around 80K, pushing the price to rebound, but to reopen upward momentum, it must first reclaim 83K and then break through 84K–84.5K. Conversely, 82K is the current short-term defense line; if it fails and remains below, watch out for a retest of 81K or even a pullback to 80K.
There is a key background to this volatility: the US September CPI will be released on October 14, and last week the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $681 million, so capital demand has not yet clearly recovered. Inflation data may change the market’s judgment on the Fed’s rate path, and changes in the dollar and yields will also affect BTC’s rebound strength. $BTC #CPIandPPIupcoming, rate hike expectations face a test
Contract strategy: first see if 82K can hold, then check if the rebound has sustainability. Only by standing back above 83K is there a chance to retest 84K; if 82K fails, beware of expanded downside. The easiest mistake now is to mistake a rebound for a reversal or a drop for an inevitable continued decline.
This week’s direction may not be decided by technicals alone; CPI is the next hurdle the market must overcome.
For market analysis only, not investment advice.Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes
$RSR decline accompanied by increased positions. Price -1.53%, position volume +4.19%; trading volume 1.95 million USDT, which is 2.0 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour.2026.10.13 Morning Report
BTC $81,789｜ETH $2,446｜SOL $105
As of October 13, 2026, the crypto market accelerated its decline, with the three major coins simultaneously hitting recent lows. ETF funds have fully withdrawn, awaiting CPI guidance.
📊 Major Asset Market
BTC: Around $81,789**. Total network open interest is **$55.05 billion, a slight 1.28% increase in 24H. Price is falling while open interest rises, indicating shorts are adding positions. Binance funding rate +0.0019%, OKX +0.0066%.
ETH: Around $2,446**, breaking below the lower boundary of the whale liquidation zone. **$2,401 is the critical support line for bulls; breaking it will trigger $553 million long liquidation. Binance funding rate -0.0033%, OKX -0.0017%, shorts dominate.
SOL: Around $105**, 24H liquidations total **$10.89 million, with longs accounting for 94%, longs suffering the harshest unilateral liquidation. Open interest is $7.01 billion, down 3.91% in 24H, deleveraging continues.
💡 Trading Suggestions
BTC: No rush to bottom-fish; wait for volume expansion and stabilization signals near $80,000.
ETH: $2,401 is the critical line; strictly exit if broken.
SOL: Do not chase shorts; wait for open interest to stabilize and funding rates to turn positive before reassessing.
Maintain low leverage and control positions before CPI release; avoid premature speculation. Observation: Panic sell-off stampede, spot buying window is opening
BTC dropped to 81300, ETH lost 2430, major altcoins all fell over 4%
Market sentiment has hit rock bottom, the screen is full of voices cutting losses and exiting.
But from another perspective, this is precisely the opportunity to accumulate chips in spot.
Contracts face liquidation risk, while spot has no Damocles sword of forced liquidation.
The pits created by emotional sell-offs are often entry tickets left for the patient.
But tomorrow night’s CPI data has not yet been released, macro uncertainty remains huge.
Gradually buying in batches is the only way to control risk; betting all in at once is prone to repeated friction.
Wait until the panic selling is completely cleared out, then the real bottom will emerge.W is very hot, but it can't yet be called a full recovery
$W has indeed shown obvious strength this time.
It has risen about 35% in the last 24 hours, about 66% in the past week, and the price has already brought up the stage performance.
I will increase my attention, but I won't raise the entire market's expectations just because one coin has surged.
Whether it can continue to rise and whether other coins can keep up need to be judged separately.
Right now, I want to see the support after the sharp rise.
If it stops and can stay at a higher position, there will be a basis for further advancement; if the heat drops and it quickly falls back, the sustainability of this rise will be discounted.
$OP still has achievements within the week, but the short term is retreating.
It has fallen about 4.8% in the last 24 hours, still up about 2.7% in the past week, so you can't judge strength by picking just one number.
My evaluation is that the stage rise has not been completely lost, and for now, we look at the adjustment.
Later, it needs to stop the decline and resume active advancement, rather than relying on the strong judgment maintained by the results of the past few days.
$BICO has not kept up with this heat for the time being.
It has fallen about 4.3% in the last 24 hours, about 15.2% in the past week, and also dropped about 6.3% within the month.
So I won't use "others have risen, so it should rise too" as a reason to participate.
Catch-up gains need to have their own performance first. For now, watch more and act less; wait for the price to start improving before considering raising the ranking, and don't imagine turning differentiation into a universal rise.$ETH shorts finally got liquidated this time!
ETH experienced a massive liquidation this time, with a total of 160 million liquidated in 24 hours, 130 million from longs, and only 24.266 million from shorts.
Whether it's 1 hour, 4 hours, or 12 hours, the volume of long liquidations overwhelmingly surpasses shorts, clearly indicating a sharp drop market where many longs chasing highs were wiped out. Few shorts were liquidated, showing this was mainly a dump to harvest longs, making short-term long chasing extremely risky.
⚠️Risk warning: Liquidation data only reflects completed liquidation records and cannot predict future market trends The total market cap dropped 4.91% in 24 hours, remaining at 2.76 trillion USD. $BTC only fell 2.67% to 81430, $ETH dropped 4.23%, and $SOL fell 5.93%. BTC dominance is 59.29%, the overall market decline is nearly twice that of Bitcoin, with the excess pressure all on altcoins.
$STRK crashed 30.38% in one day, turnover rate 61.11%, with 60% of circulating market cap changing hands. $W dropped 14.92%, turnover rate 232.61%. The deeper the drop, the larger the volume, chips are moving out.
The only one going against the trend is $RSR, up 27.23%, turnover 181.53%. Its funding rate is -1.16%, the most negative in the entire market; $BLUR also has -0.77%. Spot is pulling up, perpetual shorts are paying to press it down; such readings usually lead to a retracement later.
In the next 48 hours, altcoins will continue to underperform Bitcoin. To flip bullish, two things must happen simultaneously: $BTC holds 81430, and BTC dominance moves down from 59.29%. Watch $RSR’s funding rate; if -1.16% does not move back toward zero, this rally cannot hold.Market Breakdown: The Joys and Worries of Earnings Season, Multiple Tests for Risk Assets
Semiconductor Earnings Season: A Tale of Two Extremes
TSMC's Q3 revenue approaches NT$1.5 trillion, up 51% year-over-year, setting a record high for six consecutive quarters; Samsung's operating profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time, soaring nearly 8 times year-over-year. AI computing power demand continues to materialize, and memory chips have entered a "money-printing moment." However, ASML's Q3 earnings report is about to be released, and whether EUV orders can support its AI premium has become a market focus.
Macro Geopolitics: US Treasury Alarm Raised
Trump announced a "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, but both sides have yet to officially confirm, and actual implementation is doubtful. More worrisome is PIMCO's warning that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% under extreme scenarios, with high oil prices, stubborn inflation, and debt expansion forming a triple threat.
Crypto Market: Trust Crisis and Security Reflection
Institutions continue to increase holdings, with Strategy's position reaching 848,000 BTC, yet prices remain under pressure. The Ledger theft investigation points to a single Southeast Asian distributor channel, involving nearly $93 million, exposing security weaknesses in the hardware wallet supply chain. Coupled with the US's plan to seize Iran-related crypto assets and security threats brought by AI and quantum computing, the industry is facing a critical window for trust rebuilding.
In summary, TSMC and ASML's earnings will test the substance of the AI narrative, the trajectory of US Treasury yields will determine the valuation center of risk assets, and the crypto market needs to find a new balance between security and compliance. $BTC $ETH experienced a volume surge with a sharp drop in the early morning: a large bearish candlestick on the 4-hour chart directly broke through all EMA5/10/20 moving averages. BTC quickly dropped from around 83600 to 81300, while ETH fell from above 2550 to 2413, with a volatility close to 5%.
In terms of market structure, ETH is significantly weaker than BTC, with a 24-hour decline nearly three times that of BTC. There is a clear capital outflow from altcoins and public chain sectors, flowing back into BTC as a safe haven.
Short-term indicators have entered oversold territory; the 1-hour KDJ J value has fallen back near 0, indicating potential for a technical rebound. However, MACD green bars continue to expand across all timeframes, and moving averages are in a bearish alignment. This rebound is likely a downward consolidation, so it is not advisable to rush to bottom-fish.
Key support levels to watch: For BTC, the primary focus is whether 81300 can hold; if broken, the next target is 80400. For ETH, it is crucial to defend the 2400 whole number level. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing rate hike expectations #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? ETH has slipped back to 2515 again. The most fragile link is actually not the price. Have you noticed that what really keeps people awake at night is never a 1% drop, but that the leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out yet? When watching the market at night, ETH hovers around 2515; during the day it surged above 2550 but failed to hold, then retraced along with BTC. The rebound from last week's low is now being slowly digested by the market. On the surface, it looks like a normal pullback, but the derivatives market hides a more real story. Key levels are as follows: - Support is between 2480 and 2500, with 2460 below that. - Resistance is from 2550 to 2580, then 2600. Holding 2500 means the short-term structure can still hold; losing it might lead to a test down to 2450. Why do I focus on these numbers but care more about open interest and funding rates? Because if after the rebound the funding rate remains positive and long positions are still piled high, this pullback is not a simple correction but a trigger for a squeeze. The price hasn't broken key levels, but the leverage structure is already weakening. Once around 2480 is quickly breached, stop-losses and forced liquidations will pile up, causing the decline to be sharper than the candlesticks suggest. The bullish path is also possible: as long as 2500 can be reclaimed, funding rates cool down, and open interest lightens, ETH can reorganize an attack relying on spot buying, driving altcoin sentiment recovery. If BTC stabilizes, risk appetite will gradually return, but this takes time and cannot be solved by a single bullish candle. What is easily overlooked is that the market is now trading not direction, but position health. Last week's low rebound made many people$BTC ：反弹做空
策略：
·等待价格反弹至81,900-82,300区间（EMA5/EMA10及多头成本密集压制区）受阻后进空。
·目标先看81,247（24小时低点），有效跌破则看80,351前低。防守止损设在82,700（EMA20）上方。
核心依据：
1. 均线空头压制：1小时级别EMA5(82,037)、EMA10(82,345)、EMA20(82,700)向下发散，价格运行于三线之下，自86,656见顶后高点不断下移，弱势格局明确。
2. 筹码面主力猎杀：聪明钱数据显示多头极其拥挤（1.96B），平均成本82,302。当前价格已跌破多头成本线，多头处于亏损状态。主力极大概率向下砸盘，引爆这近20亿的多头止损，形成踩踏。
3. 量价配合极差：下跌阶段伴随放量，当前低位反弹量能极度萎缩，表明多头承接无力，上方套牢盘沉重，顺势做空盈亏比极佳。
$ETH $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 The core catalyst this week is the U.S. CPI data on October 14. If inflation is high, and the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, BTC may retest the $80,000–$81,000 range; if the data is moderate, there is a chance to challenge the $84,000–$85,000 range again.
Last week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a significant net outflow, indicating short-term caution among institutional funds; however, whale addresses are still accumulating at low levels, showing an on-chain divergence of "institutional outflows and large holders accumulating." The crypto world is truly the biggest mental asylum in the history of human finance.
Bitcoin rises 2%, bulls start researching buying property in Dubai.
Bitcoin falls 2%, bears start studying global financial crises.
Up 5%, someone declares the dollar system is about to collapse.
Down 5%, someone declares Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme.
The most abstract thing is:
Bulls losing money say they are long-termists.
Bears getting liquidated say they are hedging systemic risk.
Spot holders stuck say they are positioning for the future.
Contract holders going to zero say they paid their tuition in cognitive fees.
A group of people study the Federal Reserve every day, yet in the end, they don’t even understand their own positions.
Bitcoin might not know where it’s going.
But everyone in crypto knows they will be financially free tomorrow.
I seriously suspect now that the biggest consensus in crypto isn’t Bitcoin, but that everyone thinks the others are fools.
If you disagree, come debate—first disclose your position size, not your beliefs.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test The rebound is just a breather; verification is still underway
After the panic sell-off on October 9, market sentiment warmed up: total market capitalization returned to $2.89 trillion, and the greed index rose to 56. But recovery does not equal reversal—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of $485 million and $244 million for two consecutive days, institutional retreat, retail investors are on the sidelines.
$BTC hovers around 84,000, with 83,000 being both the average ETF cost and the dividing line between bulls and bears. There is dense trapped volume above; only a volume-backed hold above this level counts as a breakout; 77,000 below is support, and the market bets a 67% probability of falling below 80,000 in October. $ETH is around 2,566, with a decline far exceeding BTC, ETF bleeding for six days, 2,550–2,600 is a resistance zone; failure to break through may lead to a retest of 2,470 or even 2,400. $SOL is about 113, short-term slightly strong, key is whether buying can continue. $ZEC is about 1,265, Grayscale ETF and privacy narrative bring high elasticity, but profit-taking pressure is not light.
Next, it depends on two things: whether inflation data will again exceed expectations, and whether the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire is real. In terms of operations, don’t rush to chase; for BTC, watch if 83,000 can hold with volume; for ETH, see if 2,600 can be recovered; for SOL, see if funds can continue; ZEC is highly elastic but don’t catch the last leg. Treat the rebound as just a rebound, wait for pullback confirmation before acting.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure?
#Trading Voice: Your experience deserves to be heard $W has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things.
$W is down 15.96% in 24 hours, currently priced at 0.01864. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 8 and 52 respectively. Oversold conditions can trigger rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop, while a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Volume does not support the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.15 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next market phase. A single touch or one long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
Looking back at the 24-hour range: the low is 0.01864, the high is 0.03175. The current price at 0.01864’s position within this range directly affects the meaning of the same signal. When near the high, strength needs to prove it’s not a spike followed by a fall; when near the low, a rebound needs to prove it’s not a continuation of the downtrend. The range is not a forecast target, but a tool to check if the current narrative is hiding risks.$BTC Wave B major top (87000) — if confirmed as the peak of this rebound, counting from the top, the 12–18 month window is the timeframe for the major bottom to appear.
The high point is in the second half of 2026; pushing forward 12–18 months, the bottom falls in the first half of 2027, which exactly matches our previous projections.
What you are saying now: the next 6 months (October 2026 — April 2027) is the window for the bottom to manifest, and this projection aligns with this cycle framework.
First half (November, December): Wave C main decline releases selling pressure, with multiple fake rebounds (dead cat bounces) along the way, continuously clearing out funds chasing highs.
• Second half (early 2027): Main decline ends with the ultimate low, followed by sideways consolidation at low levels, repeatedly faking breakouts to wear down bottom-fishers' patience.
After 6 months (second half of 2027): Bottoming out completes, awaiting liquidity to warm up.
The bottom consolidation fully digests the trapped positions from Wave B at 87000. From a macro perspective, the Fed's rate cut cycle lands, long-term US Treasury yields decline, risk asset valuations recover, then a new major upward rally will start.
Two key premises for this timing cycle to hold:
1. 87000 must be confirmed as a valid Wave B top.
That is, BTC must subsequently break below 57000 on the weekly chart to confirm Wave C structure.
If the market holds 57000 and it's only a mid-term correction, then 87000 is not the major top, and this 12–18 month bottom-seeking cycle is invalid. The market will consolidate for a few months and then challenge new highs again.
2. No unexpected massive macro black swan events.
If extreme inflation or a global liquidity crisis occurs, the down cycle will lengthen and the bottom timing will be delayed; if inflation falls rapidly and liquidity loosens early, the bottom may appear earlier, not necessarily waiting until the first half of 2027. #CPI and PPI Announcements Imminent, Interest Rate Hike Expectations Face Test
$BTC The core focus this week is the US September CPI and PPI inflation data. As the Federal Reserve meeting approaches at the end of the month, the data will rewrite expectations for rate hikes or cuts, driving sharp volatility in cryptocurrencies and gold.
CPI reflects consumer-end prices, while PPI reflects upstream production costs. Only by combining both can we judge whether inflation is truly easing or just a short-term illusion.
Currently, the market is only undergoing an oversold correction, not a trend reversal. Early in the week, there is no major data, so the market mainly plays on expectations. The market will most likely fluctuate and consolidate, with frequent long and short traps. Do not mistake test fluctuations for a directional move.
$ETH $ZEC I have closed my positions in Ethereum and small Bitcoin; the pattern is no longer favorable. I’m taking profits first and will go long again after further declines. Currently, Bitcoin is still looking at 86000.SK Hynix suddenly plummeted: It's not that the fundamentals collapsed, but the chips loosened first
Among the three major memory manufacturers, SK Hynix has fallen the most sharply this round.
Many people's first reaction: Is the AI storage logic gone? Actually, not entirely.
The real trigger is the change in capital structure: foreign capital continues to sell, the large buyback dividends that previously supported the stock price have basically faded, and a large amount of passive buying support is missing. Coupled with the active retail trading in the Korean market itself, once expectations waver slightly, turnover rises rapidly, floating chips increase suddenly, and a "longs killing longs" rapid sell-off can easily occur.
One key point to note: SK Hynix has the highest proportion of HBM, many orders are long-term contracts, so the spot price increase dividend is actually less direct than Micron and SanDisk, and the market is starting to reassess its profit elasticity.
Now it's not simply about "good or bad," but the market has shifted from blindly bullish to testing chip stability through turnover rate.
High turnover = increased divergence: if turnover quickly falls after a drop, it means selling pressure is gradually exhausted; if it remains high, the time for a choppy bottoming process may be extended.
The long memory cycle remains, but the era of high volatility has arrived, and the risk of heavily betting on a one-sided move is clearly rising. Originally, I planned to liquidate all my Trump tokens before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd, whether at a profit or a loss. This morning, Bitcoin and Ethereum started to decline steadily, and the market gave me a very grim and oppressive feeling.
Today is already October 13th, just 20 days away from November 3rd, so stopping losses today is reasonable. The Trump project team is really disappointing—they only know how to dump and sell. With such a good midterm election bullish factor, they still don’t support the price; I’m really speechless.
But I also made mistakes. Trump token peaked at 3.6 this round. According to my trading rules, I should have halved my position, entering at 1.8. If I had strictly followed my trading discipline, with the current price around 1.8, I wouldn’t have lost much money.
At that time, I was also influenced by the market’s FOMO sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum surged wildly, and tokens on various chains were pumping, especially those on the RH chain. I only had two layers of positions on board, so I got a bit nervous and ended up chasing Trump at a high price. When I stopped losses today, I lost over 800 dollars, nearly 6,000 RMB, which is quite a lot. Now, I have a clear concept of money and am no longer as extravagant or clueless as before. $ZEC currently lacks directional views but needs verifiable conditions.
Scenario 1: Break through 1,349.3 and hold, indicating the continuation of a weak structure. Scenario 2: Fall below 1,150.45, invalidating the short-term logic.
Current price is 1,158.5, about 0.69% away from the 1-hour support at 1,150.45, and about 16.47% from the resistance at 1,349.3. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are weak, with RSI at 8 and 37 respectively. Volume is 0.62 times; for now, it only provides clues and does not conclude price direction.
With these two scenarios laid out, do you think the upper confirmation or the lower invalidation will trigger first?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull Talk.8-Hour Strategy Review｜2026-10-13｜Minimalist Review
Statistics Period: 2026-10-13 00:00 to 2026-10-13 08:00 (Asia/Singapore, excluding end time)
Contract: BTC-USDT-SWAP
Exchange Trade Receipts: 0 entries
Open or Add Position Trades: 0 entries
Close Position Trades: 0 entries
Receipts have been paginated, verified, and deduplicated by trade identifier; partial trades are counted by receipt entries and do not equal order count.
Less speculation, retaining verifiable facts.
No trades found in this period does not mean no trades occurred throughout the day, nor does it mean no positions were held.
Signal count, account balance, and net profit/loss for this round have not been individually verified and are not conclusive.
For strategy testing and real trade record purposes only, not investment advice. Starting with just one chart,
all the content is made up.
With Bitcoin's current trend,
all the profits from the past few days have been lost again.
If I had exited last night,
this position wouldn't have lost.
And the unrealized loss rebounded,
closing the position is exactly the value of ultra-short-term trading.
Caught the morning's dip,
couldn't withstand the pressure.
Stop loss on unrealized loss,
ultra-short-term trading that can't go back.高杠杆合约玩的就是心跳，$SOL 这单算是踩准了节奏。
10月面临宏观压力和筹码出清，盘面波动极大，一不小心就会爆仓。
考虑到指标超买且资金流出，我严格控仓在108.93开了100倍空。
价格回落到104.5，收益达到406.68%。
后市事件落地前后估计还会剧烈洗盘，建议降低开仓频率，保护好利润最重要。$ZEC $BTC