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The midterm elections had unexpected results, with traditional red states like Texas turning blue.
October non-farm payrolls also exceeded expectations, with a forecast of 65,000 but an actual of 165,000, and previous months' data were revised upward, strengthening the possibility of a Fed rate hike.
US stocks plunged after the midterm elections: there was a technical rebound yesterday, but overall market risk appetite has not fully recovered; the Nasdaq still fell 3.37% this week.
$BTC remains weak: it briefly dropped below $75,000 on Friday, then partially recovered, but the price is still significantly below this week's high.
Institutional outflows continue, with a net outflow of about $1.28 billion from BTC spot ETFs this week.
Gold is under pressure, and the dollar is strengthening: strong employment data boosted the dollar and Treasury yields; gold retreated on Friday but still rose about 5.2% for the week.
The focus next week is Tuesday at 21:30 with the October CPI.
US stocks rebounded on Friday but BTC did not; an important reason is that BTC is a liquidity-sensitive asset, so the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls had a greater impact on BTC, and next week's CPI may determine whether BTC can hold $75,000 The two trades I made against the trend on the day the semiconductor sector crashed to a circuit breaker level turned out all green when I checked, feeling a bit dazed.
What was the environment like then? The non-farm payroll data blew past expectations, December rate hike expectations were fully priced in, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit its largest single-day drop since the pandemic, and the Korean stock market crashed straight to triggering a circuit breaker, with panic selling everywhere. On impulse, I went against the grain and bought long on SK Hynix with 30x leverage at a cost of 865.1, and also casually took a 100x leveraged long position on ETH around 2224, fully prepared for a short-term drawdown.
Now $SKHYNIX is up nearly 14%, and $ETH is even more impressive, hitting 102% floating profit. Together, these two small positions have earned me almost $13. It’s not false to say I’m a bit secretly happy, but then I ask myself: does this count as successfully bottom-fishing?
Honestly, I’m not confident. It’s the weekend market close with very thin liquidity, so prices aren’t very reliable. The real test will be when the US market opens Monday—whether the semiconductor sector can hold off selling pressure and if the sentiment recovery can continue. After all, the bearish fundamentals from the non-farm data remain, and the threat of a December rate hike hasn’t been lifted. This feels more like an emotional rebound after a crash, not a trend reversal.
Until I close the positions and take profits, floating gains are just numbers. I’ll hold and see how Monday goes. My position size is light, so losses won’t be too bad. If the rebound continues, then it’s a lucky catch.#BTC spot ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year. The strong nonfarm payroll data pushed the market to delay rate cut expectations.
The US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, exceeding market expectations by about 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. After the data release, the US dollar index rose about 0.7%, and the implied market bet on a December rate hike increased from 70% to 78%. Strong employment indicates economic resilience, but for high-valuation assets, it also means interest rates may stay elevated longer.
The pressure on the crypto market is not only from contract liquidations. The US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $430.2 million on November 5, narrowing to about $51.7 million on November 6. The selling pressure has clearly eased but has not yet turned into net inflows. $BTC has returned near $76,000; what really needs to be tested is whether spot buying has returned.
I do not simply interpret a strong nonfarm payroll as bearish, nor do I see the narrowing ETF outflow as a bottom-fishing signal. If yields continue to rise and ETFs still have net outflows, the rebound is likely to lack follow-through; if capital flow stops bleeding first, the market will have a foundation for recovery.
What this data truly changes is the market's imagination about the interest rate path. Will you focus first on the dollar and yields, or on ETF capital flows?A company that hasn't gone public yet has already been shorted on-chain to a floating profit of 6.56 million USD.
In Hyperliquid's Anthropic pre-market contract, the address holding the top short position rolled over its position again early this morning, accumulating a short position of 36.95 million USD, with an average entry price of 1838 USD and a liquidation price of 2498.65 USD. The position is placed on the $HYPE ecosystem's order book.
First, look at the distance. From 1838 to 2498.65, there is more than a 30% gap; the price must rise over one-third for this position to be liquidated. The fact that they dare to add here indicates their judgment that the pre-market pricing is too high, not a short-term trade.
Next, look at the action. Rolling over the position is not opening it all at once; it uses the floating profit as margin to stack upwards. The 6.56 million floating profit has turned the initial risk into a safety cushion, and each subsequent add-on uses money provided by the market.
Mechanically, pre-market contracts fear liquidity the most. Without spot delivery, the mark price relies on a few quotes; a large order can distort the curve. The larger the position, the closer it is to pricing power, which is the biggest difference from mainstream perpetual contracts.
Their other leg is a 10x SK Hynix short position, with an average entry price of 1305 USD. On one side is the hottest private company in the AI narrative, and on the other is a storage leader, both betting in the same direction.
Worth considering is the exit: pre-market contracts have no delivery buy orders to take the position; closing can only find a counterparty, and the thicker the floating profit, the more someone needs to stand on the opposite side.US October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far exceeding expectations, with the probability of a December rate hike soaring to 85% at one point, but there is a clear divergence within the market: BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $412 million, with a cumulative outflow of $1.28 billion in November; ETH ETF simultaneously outflowed $93.19 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone accounting for $90.76 million.
$BTC: around 75,586. Intraday low at 74,762, the lowest since August 21. Resistance at 76,000 above, key support zone between 74,000–75,000 below; if broken, 69,000 will come into view. 4H long-short ratio is 2.01, bulls still relatively crowded, watch for a potential double bottom after weak rebound.
$ETH: around 2,226. ETFs are withdrawing, but a certain whale bought 8,775 ETH one hour ago for 19.7 million USDT at an average price of 2,245, increasing holdings to 23,097 ETH.
$SOL: around 89.65. Has fallen below 90, lowest at 88.24, currently testing the 200-day moving average at 89.03. RSI has entered oversold territory, but 4H long-short ratio of 3.10 is the highest among the three coins, indicating the heaviest bull crowding.
In short: Macro factors have pushed rate hike expectations back up, ETFs are withdrawing while whales are accumulating, BTC is breathing at 75,000, ETH is holding at 2,200, and SOL is undergoing oversold recovery at the 200-day moving average — all three coins are waiting for the same signal: when will the capital flow shift from defense to offense. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 【Bitcoin Enters Historical Bottoming Zone, Is the Opportunity Here?】
$BTC has dropped to around $76,000, and the AHR999 has fallen to 0.431, marking a return to the historical bottoming zone since the end of August. According to the historical experience of this indicator, the market price is significantly undervalued relative to long-term valuation; in the past, it has stayed below 0.45 for a total of 655 days. The 200-day dollar-cost averaging cost is about $72,800, only about 4% away from the current price, indicating that the long-term valuation advantage is emerging.
This decline is also accompanied by real capital outflows. On November 6 (U.S. Eastern trading day), the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $412 million, marking two consecutive days of outflows, with a cumulative net outflow of about $1.3 billion since November. The risk appetite decline caused by the AI trading retreat has begun to transmit to institutional capital allocation.
It should now be seen that BTC is gradually entering a long-term value zone, rather than confirming a short-term bottom. AHR999 is suitable to assist with dollar-cost averaging and is not responsible for predicting the lowest point. The 200-day cost line near $72,000 to $73,000 is a support area worth watching next. For those preparing to hold BTC long-term, the odds of phased accumulation are becoming attractive, and there is no need to wait for all indicators to improve before taking action. 📉 $BTC has dropped from $80,000 to around $75,000. Is now really a good time to buy the dip?
Lately, many people have been asking me the same question: Bitcoin has fallen so much already, is it almost at the bottom? If I enter now, will I catch this rebound?
My view is: what’s most needed now is not rushing to buy the dip, but waiting for the market to give a genuine reversal signal.
To judge the market bottom, you can’t just look at how much the price has dropped. More importantly, observe the leverage structure, funding rates, and whether market sentiment has truly been cleared out.
Currently, there are two key indicators worth focusing on:
First, the perpetual contract funding rate has not yet shown an extreme negative value.
The current funding rate is still mildly positive, indicating that bullish sentiment has not completely disappeared, and the market has not yet shown obvious signs of extreme short overcrowding.
Historically, many important market bottoms have been accompanied by large-scale clearing of leveraged funds, extremely pessimistic sentiment, and funding rates entering deep negative territory.
Of course, a negative funding rate does not necessarily mean the bottom has been reached, but the current market clearly has not released a sufficiently clear extreme clearing signal.
Second, recent liquidations have mainly concentrated on the long side.
This means the previously accumulated bullish leverage is still being continuously cleared by the market.
When a large number of long positions are forced to close, selling pressure may further increase. If leverage is not fully cleared, even if the price experiences a short-term rebound, it does not necessarily mean the downtrend has ended.
There is also an easily overlooked issue:I'll make a counterintuitive judgment: the main force is inducing short selling.
The reason is simple. In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled 218 million, with long positions liquidated at 143 million. The bulls have been almost completely cleaned out. But if you look at the funding rates, 16 out of 18 exchanges are still positive. What does this mean? The shorts haven't truly entered the market; the current sell-off is actually the longs unable to hold and getting cut out. The real big shorts haven't boarded yet. If the main force really wanted to push prices down, they would first drive the funding rates deeply negative to squeeze in the shorts before triggering a sharp spike down. Right now, the funding rates are mild, and the shorts haven't been fully fed.#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH Down 17% on Thursday, then up 11% on Friday: AMD flips in one day
Midterm elections concluded on Thursday, Democrats took both chambers
Market fears AI data centers will be choked by regulations
Nasdaq dropped 5.5% in one day, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%
The worst day in six years
Friday's tone suddenly changed
AMD closed at $449.04, up $44.64
Trading volume 45.2 million shares, double the usual
Intel +7.7%, NVIDIA +2.8%, Philadelphia Semiconductor +4.2%
Earnings report actually not bad
Q3 revenue $13.38 billion, up 45% year-over-year
Data center revenue doubled, EPS $2.09 beat expectations
Morgan Stanley raised target price to $550
I think this rebound is a "correction after overreaction," not a confirmed reversal
Thursday's drop was due to regulatory expectations, Friday's rise is about the earnings themselves
Regulation is just "getting tougher," not completely blocked
Invalidation level: AMD falls back below Thursday's close at $404.40
Or if Texas or federal level really issues data center restrictions
Then this rebound never happened
Do you think Friday's bullish candle is a bottom-fishing signal or a dead cat bounce?
$AMD $NVDA $INTC
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Last night, despite the news, there was no major drop; the lowest point only dipped to 74800, which is a very precise level, exactly the lowest point of the last upward correction in September. Ethereum $ETH only dipped to 2207, not even breaking the previous low of 2170. I judge that the recent drop was too steep, and at this price level, there are many people bottom-fishing spot positions. Indeed, who can resist a Bitcoin that fell from 88000 to 75000, and an Ethereum that dropped from 2880 toNear 75K, the whale who precisely bottomed and topped last cycle re-entered the market to buy 3,009 BTC
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元
In the last cycle, this whale bought 50,000 BTC at an average price of about $20,000 at the end of 2022, gradually selling from 2024 to early 2025, with total profits of about $2 billion. After being silent for more than a year, yesterday it directly bought 3,009 BTC near 75K.
Historical actions have proven this whale's judgment, and I don't think this re-entry is accidental.
Next, I judge that $BTC is very likely to consolidate and form a bottom near 75K in the short term, with a continued bullish outlook in the medium to long term.
Trading advice:
Spot can be accumulated in batches within the 74.5K–75.5K range, adding more if it falls below 74K.
For contracts, take light long positions near 75K, set stop loss at 73.8K, with targets at 77.5K–80K.
There is still some room to dip, but the overall direction is upward. Strictly control position size to avoid heavy exposure.I noticed $ONE was pumping this afternoon, and now looking at it, it has actually risen 32%! Is it still worth chasing?
The 24-hour trading volume is 6 million USD. With this depth, a few million can create this pattern, so don’t treat it as market movement but as an event.
I dug into the reasons behind it: Harmony proposed shutting down the Layer 1 mainnet that has been running for seven years, migrating ONE to Ethereum as an ERC-20 token, airdropping to qualified wallets, and the team is shifting entirely to focus on AI video remix economy. The block explorer will permanently close on November 18.
Compared to the last tenfold pump from 0.0006 to 0.0066, there are two differences: last time it was purely storytelling, this time there is a clear date and migration path, which looks like progress; but last time it jumped from the floor, this time there is a whole range of trapped positions from 0.0025 to 0.0066 overhead, and every rise is met with people selling to break even.
So, can you buy? I only analyze, not invest. But if someone doesn’t want to miss out, you can take a small amount as a lottery ticket. In August, a cross-shard vulnerability minted 3 trillion ONE out of thin air, the chain even rolled back, and now TVL is only 9,000 USD. This is no longer a valuation issue but whether this asset still exists. Once the explorer closes on November 18, the story ends and it’s a vacuum.
If you really want to play: spot trading, position small enough to lose everything without pain, unconditionally exit if it falls below 0.0015. But on contracts, a single spike can wipe you out.Regulatory side: FinCEN cuts off MEXC Global's access to the U.S. financial system — accusing about $16 billion in transactions related to sanctions evasion and other issues.
They are using Section 9714: prohibiting U.S. financial institutions from transmitting funds with it, covering both fiat and crypto. This is not an OFAC-style full asset freeze list; the boundaries are different.
It takes effect about 30 days after the Federal Register publication — before publication ≠ completely cut off. The key is whether the dollar clearing/U.S. capital channels can be touched, which determines liquidity placement more than slogans.
Confidence: High | Disclosure (U.S. Treasury/FinCEN). The order ≠ OFAC naming and freezing; effectiveness depends on the publication date. Are you focusing more on the channels or on following the blacklist? $BTC $BTC Last night, the non-farm payroll data was released, directly rewriting market expectations. New jobs added were 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised up by 84,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
After the data release, the market's bets on a December rate hike quickly rose, with the probability of a rate hike surging to around 80%. Interest rate futures weakened in tandem, and traders began to increase their bets on a rate hike.
But there is a contrast: the initial one-year inflation expectation for November was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.7%. Inflation expectations are declining, yet employment is exceptionally strong, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to continue focusing on inflation.
Another key point is that the U.S. now only needs to add about 40,000 jobs per month to match the growth of the working-age population. This balance point has significantly dropped from 150,000 in 2024. The core reasons for the falling unemployment rate are labor supply contraction, tightened immigration, and increased retirements. Federal Reserve officials themselves do not currently view employment as an inflation risk.
Strong employment drives up rate hike expectations, and low unemployment means the Federal Reserve does not need to worry excessively about a recession. This non-farm payroll report directly tilts the December rate balance toward a rate hike side [Bitcoin mining difficulty has been below its peak for 374 days, miners are losing business to AI]
$BTC mining difficulty has remained below its historical peak for 374 consecutive days, setting a new record. This reflects the ongoing pressure on mining profit margins: in June 2026, difficulty dropped to 124.93T, then rebounded to 148.36T by the end of October, still short of the all-time high of 155.97T.
Currently, the total network hash rate has returned to about 1,060 EH/s, but on November 6, miners earned only about $32.4 per PH per day. Competition is recovering, yet the revenue per mining machine has not improved accordingly. Electricity costs, equipment depreciation, and financing expenses are pushing out less efficient miners.
Mining company Keel Infrastructure disclosed in its latest financial report that it has shut down some Bitcoin mining farms in the U.S., shifting focus to building AI and HPC data centers. It also cleared its BTC treasury in Q3 and generally opts to sell newly mined Bitcoin immediately. Mining companies are reallocating power, land, and hash rate resources toward AI businesses with higher profit expectations.
This has a twofold impact on BTC: continuous selling by miners increases spot supply pressure, and some mining farms exiting will alter the network's hash rate competition landscape. However, hash rate is still recovering, and the industry has not collectively collapsed. More mining companies are recalculating the return on investment for mining. AI is becoming a new competitor for electricity and capital in Bitcoin mining, and this resource competition may be more worthy of long-term attention than mere price declines.$BTC net outflow of 416 million USD this year, broken down it's an inflow of 25.63 billion almost completely offset by an outflow of 26.05 billion
The money is basically just circulating in place
The "support" role of the ETF hasn't disappeared, but it's moving back and forth between funds rather than steadily flowing in one direction
The direct impact is that $BTC is struggling to hold near 76,000
24-hour liquidation is 218 million, with long positions accounting for 143 million. The price is supported, but the strength of the support is not concentrated
At this position, bets are continuously placed both up and down, and whichever side triggers, neither side will pass smoothly
If IBIT continues large redemptions and FBTC only sporadically replenishes, the rebound pressure at 76,500 will be hard to truly overcome
ETF money is still on the market, but it is no longer a unified buying force; rather, it's a group of funds each calculating their own moves and exchanging hands
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 The most fragile link is actually emotions, not price. Are you really sure this is the bottom now? BTC is back to 75,000, ETH around 2226, SOL holding at 90. More people backstage are asking "Can we bottom-fish?" but I've been watching the funding rates for a long time, and I feel even calmer. Prices can deceive, but funding rates rarely do. True oversold conditions and reversals usually come with funding rates pushed to clearly negative values, shorts crowded to the extreme, and a short squeeze providing the fuel. Right now, the funding rate is just slightly positive, no panic, no capitulation, emotions as bland as plain water 🌙 What does this tell me? It looks more like a breather during a low-volume decline, not a real bottom. Bottoms never come quietly; they come with a bit of bloodshed, stop losses getting wiped out, short positions squeezed to explosion, funding rates burning red—that's when the fuel is sufficient. Currently, the fuel is insufficient, so ignition is just a fake firework. Looking at sector rotation makes it clearer. BTC is still holding decently in the high range, ETH is relatively weak, SOL is holding 90 but with mediocre elasticity, and altcoin sentiment is even more lackluster. This structure indicates risk appetite hasn't truly returned; everyone is just waiting for a reason, not scrambling for chips. There is, of course, a bullish path: once funding rates turn negative and shorts pile up, the rebound will be quick and sharp. But the risk is obvious—if sentiment stays this sluggish, sideways grinding will test patience more than a decline, and altcoins will be the first to crack. Bottom-fishing has never been a speed contest; it's an endurance contest. The quick hands catch the falling knives, the patient ones pick up chips. I'd rather watch from the sidelines a bit longer than get caught in a slow bleed.I feel that this wave is not just a fake-out shakeout, but a real capital flight 😮💨
Compared to candlesticks, capital flow is a signal that deserves more caution.
One-hour capital data: BTC contracts net outflow of 132 million, spot market simultaneously outflow of 43.39 million; ETH contracts outflow of 39.31 million, but spot market quietly received 12.42 million; SOL is the weakest, with both contracts and spot outflowing a total of 24.39 million.
The interpretation is very clear: BTC sees leveraged longs and spot funds exiting simultaneously, no one is willing to actively take over; ETH, although it has a larger drop, already has funds quietly absorbing in the spot market; SOL’s selling pressure has not yet been fully released, short-term is weak.
Combined with the Nasdaq’s big drop and semiconductor sector collapse, this decline is not just a weakness in crypto but a synchronized de-risking of global risk assets.
Key supports: BTC 75,500–76,000, ETH 2200, SOL 88.
Chasing shorts now is easy to get slapped by a quick rebound, and bottom fishing lacks capital confirmation.
Don’t rush to guess the bottom yet; with such volatile market swings, controlling position size and being able to sleep peacefully is already a win. Today there was a rather awkward scene: on one side, the Qatari Prime Minister publicly said that the indirect talks between the US and Iran "have made great progress," while on the other side, Iranian media reported that two missiles hit Qeshm Island, with no official statement on the losses yet. On the same timeline, negotiations and fighting are happening simultaneously.
Actually, the negotiation track is not a single line but three: Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed set the tone that "a solution can be reached"; US Vice President Pence has been involved in indirect talks with Iran over the past two weeks; Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Munir has also been pulled into the communication chain. The simultaneous movement of these three lines indicates that the driving force is not coming from just one side.
Now looking at the fighting track. Iran proposed a seven-day plan in September with very specific conditions: lifting the port blockade, unfreezing assets, and reopening waterways. This plan has been rejected by Trump so far. With its biggest concession on the table but getting nothing in return, the motivation to create pressure outside the negotiation table has always existed.
On November 6, Qatar's Emir Tamim had a phone call with Trump, discussing easing tensions and promoting a comprehensive agreement. This call happened the day before the missile news—high-level officials are laying the groundwork while ground-level friction proceeds at its own pace.
The only real variable worth watching is whether working-level technical talks will start in the coming days. This is the threshold from statements to text. If this step cannot be reached, all the previous "great progress" is just atmosphere. For assets like $BTC, easing tensions is priced up step by step as the negotiation level rises. $BZ is the authentic commodity! Recently, oil prices have plummeted from $114 all the way down to $97, a 13% drop in a single week, breaking below the $100 mark! Why the crash? Progress in US-Iran negotiations in the Middle East, and the de-escalation of conflicts between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have drained all geopolitical premiums. On top of that, with the Democrats sweeping Congress, market expectations for global energy demand have cooled off, and hedge funds have cut their long crude positions by the largest margin since June. Now at $97, technically it's severely oversold; today's small rebound of 0.62% is a sign of stabilization. But brothers, don't rush to bottom-fish—oil prices depend on the Middle East's mood—when fighting breaks out, prices surge; when negotiations happen, prices plunge. The sideways movement at $97 indicates the market is waiting for the next catalyst. In the short term, $95 is a strong support; breaking below $90 could lead to $85; but if the Middle East stirs up trouble again, a bullish candle pulling back to $105 is not a dream. Using crude oil as a hedge is fine, but don't use high leverage to bet on direction!US October non-farm payrolls landed with an increase of 165,000 jobs, stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%😮💨
The stronger the economic resilience, the more the Fed delays rate cut expectations, with the dollar and US Treasury yields rising in tandem. This positive data for the real economy is actually bearish for the crypto space.
The real pressure is on liquidity: On November 6, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 411.9 million, marking two consecutive days of large-scale exits, with nearly 1.9 billion USD withdrawn over the past 7 trading days. While US tech stocks have at least seen an oversold rebound, incremental buying for BTC remains absent.
The current market is particularly conflicted: shorts just went through a wave of liquidations and dare not chase further, while bottom-fishing funds are unwilling to actively push prices up. The price looks stabilized, but volume is not keeping up.
This feels more like a brief breather after a big drop, not a reversal. A true stabilization signal requires ETF outflows to stop and volume to continuously expand. Before that, rebounds are easily cashed out by funds, causing choppy swings that shake out traders.
The most frustrating thing at this stage is not being wrong on direction, but repeatedly getting harvested by volatility. Caution is essential in trading. ETH rebound retraced, I still don't consider it stabilized.
Market status as of 11/7 23:04 Taipei time: ETH around 2,245, down about 8.4% from the 11/4 high of 2,450, only about 1.8% above the 11/5 low of 2,206.28; ETH/BTC around 0.0296, relative strength is also retreating.
ETF data as of 11/6: US spot ETH ETFs had net outflows for two consecutive days, with a total net outflow of $365.2 million in the first five trading days of November, with only one day of net inflow. One rebound does not prove sustained capital return.
I look at three conditions: daily chart holding above 2,206 and rising back above 2,300; ETF showing net inflows again, preferably ETHA turning positive; ETH/BTC rising back near 0.030. Until these are met, I still view it as low-level oscillation.
OWL AI is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform. Writing adjustment conditions as public, on-chain verifiable strategies, allowing the operator's actions to be compared against preset rules, is the transparency I focus on.
#ETH $ETH Two missiles hit Qeshm Island, Trump characterized it as a "small strike," and Iran immediately shot down an MQ-9 drone, yet gold prices fell 0.6% on Friday, closing near $4063. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The issue is not that safe havens are useless, but that the market has already priced in "peace" in advance. Look at three accounts: Brent April contracts at $88.42, July and later contracts below $84, oil prices fell about 13% to 16% this week, indicating funds are betting unilaterally on a quick end to the conflict. Negotiations have not landed. Iran demands the implementation of seven conditions first and no longer trusts US paper promises. The military pace is still advancing. Three aircraft carriers are expected to be in place by late November, and New York bank Levin also warned that the black swan of a prolonged Iran conflict has not been fully priced in. So safe havens are not absent, but they won't come in the "rush to gold on the day of the incident" manner. More likely, the market will reconcile the previously prepaid peace expectations. In terms of positions, it can be divided into three steps: First, separate tactical and strategic. Event pulses are suitable for watching the dollar and crude oil, with weekly volatility already reaching $19; strategic allocation is for gold, don't use short-term tools for long-term work. Second, buy gold on dips in batches, don't chase highs. Gold is now near $4063, with $4000 to $4020 below being a safer observation zone. Global central banks bought 321 tons of gold in Q3, a 42% year-on-year increase; interest rate suppression is a short-term pulse, central bank gold buying is a mid-term structure. Avoid chasing near $4100. Third, asPrice $BTC: 75,994.3$ 24-hour change rate is relatively stable.
The 4-hour chart shows weakness; the daily chart still maintains an upward trend. The EMA indicator on the daily chart has not yet reflected this trend.
On the closing price K-line, the retracement line slopes downward and is below the signal line. This indicator alone is insufficient to conclude a price trend reversal.
Support level 75,534.45: A daily close below this value will confirm the loss of support.Both H4 and D1 $SHIB are sloping downward. This is the context for interpreting the Bollinger Bands index.
Price SHIB: $0.000004514 with a slight decrease in the 24-hour change rate.
Support at 0.00000444: Closing below this value on H4 will confirm the loss of support.
According to the Bollinger Bands indicator, the daily closing price is within the range. A breakout supported by the closing price is needed to give a clearer signal. Both the 4-hour and daily charts show a bearish trend.$XLU
In a high interest rate environment, how do utilities maintain their appeal?
The resilience of U.S. employment means expectations for rapid easing lack direct confirmation. Utilities have relatively stable demand and require ongoing capital investment, so it's not just about dividend yield.
Expanding the grid and adding new power supply can increase the future asset base, provided regulators allow reasonable returns and projects can be commissioned on time. If financing costs rise first, cash returns may be delayed.
I observe capital expenditures, financing arrangements, and approved returns. Growth is steadier if project execution aligns with regulatory recovery; if investments increase but cannot be converted into revenue promptly, the defensive nature may not fully offset cash flow pressure.I've been watching the US stock market all week.
The Nasdaq dropped 3.4% this week, falling for the 4th consecutive week. On Thursday, due to the midterm election results, the market feared tighter AI regulations, and chip stocks were hit hard. On Friday, AMD rebounded 11%, while Nvidia only recovered 2.8%.
My view: This is a rebound after an oversell, not a bottom. With the strong non-farm payrolls, if Tuesday's CPI exceeds expectations again (month-over-month 0.3%), the rate hike expectations will only harden, and high-valuation chip stocks will take another hit.
What I'll do: I won't add positions over the weekend; I'll keep cash and wait for the data at 9:30 PM Tuesday, then decide whether to buy.
When the CPI comes out, do you think it will be above or below 0.3%?
This is not investment advice
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #USStocks #CPI #AI$ZEC Five little-known facts, each of which can explain why you lose money.
1. 100x leverage doesn't mean liquidation happens only if the price drops 1%, but rather liquidation occurs if it drops 0.5%.
100x means a 1% margin, but there are also maintenance margin and fees. BTC's maintenance margin rate is about 0.4%-0.5%, so the actual liquidation price is around -0.5%.
The same applies for 20x: it's not actually -5%, but about -4.5%.
The leverage's margin for error is even narrower than you think.
2. Fees can eat up half of your principal in a year.
Assuming you use 10% of your funds each time with 10x leverage, the nominal position equals your entire principal. The one-way fee is 0.05%, so opening and closing a position costs 0.1%.
Two trades a day equals 0.2%. Over 250 trading days, 50% of your principal goes to the exchange.
You lose to fees before you even lose to the market.
3. Funding rate is an invisible holding cost.
0.01% every 8 hours, three times a day, about 11% annually.
Long-term longs effectively pay an 11% "position tax" per year. Even if the market doesn't move, you're still losing.
4. Adding to a profitable position raises your average cost.
Buying 10,000 U at 10U, then adding another 10,000 U at 20U, your average price becomes 15U.
If the price pulls back 25%, you go from unrealized profit to unrealized loss.
Adding to a position amplifies both gains and costs simultaneously; it’s not a free way to boost profits After the major crash, the market entered a breathing period, but smart money did not rush to go long; instead, it quietly increased short bets.
$BTC 76,036: In the past 24 hours, it has repeatedly tugged between 75,000 and 76,000, with ETF single-day net outflows close to $400 million; smart money long positions are down to only 19%, nearly 80% betting on shorts, and the 80,000 mark has become a strong resistance.
$ETH 2,245: After hitting a high of 2,450 and being resisted, it fell back to daily support near 2,240. Although a whale just spent 19.7 million USDT to buy 8,775 ETH at an average price of 2,245, ETF continuous outflows and liquidation risks still suppress the rebound.
Summary: Leverage has been significantly cleaned up, but incremental ETF funds have not yet returned. The market is in a phase of "stock repair, incremental observation," with sideways consolidation and bottoming still the main theme. #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $1.28 billion withdrawn in one week, BTC still stands above $76,000.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $1.282 billion this week, with 4 out of 5 trading days showing net outflows.
On Friday alone, $412 million was withdrawn, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $403 million.
IBIT has cumulatively withdrawn $1.21 billion this week, with net outflows for 6 consecutive trading days.
However, Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $43 million on Friday, so not everyone is running.
On Thursday, BTC briefly fell below $75,000, hitting a low of about $74,800, the lowest since August.
Over $1 billion in liquidations occurred across the entire network within 24 hours.
I think money is moving out but the price hasn't collapsed, indicating that spot buyers are stepping in; the invalidation point is BTC closing below $75,000 on the daily chart, or IBIT having a single-day outflow exceeding $400 million again.
Choose one: With ETFs withdrawing $1.28 billion in a week, do you think institutions are taking profits or is bull market capital retreating?
$BTC $IBIT $FBTC
#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
After a sharp plunge in US stocks, tech stocks rebounded, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still fell about 3.4%.
Although the Nasdaq market saw a technical rebound on Friday following a severe midweek sell-off, the weekly chart recorded a rare "four consecutive declines." From the perspective of technical patterns and macro-level dynamics, the Nasdaq is engaged in a critical defense battle at the lower boundary of its mid-term upward channel. The market's main logic has shifted from unilateral bullishness to a "high volatility, high differentiation defensive game."
Goldman Sachs expects cloud giants' AI CapEx to reach $800 billion by 2026, but at least $300 billion in annual AI revenue is needed to justify its financial rationality. The market's tolerance for giants blindly burning money has been exhausted. To make matters worse, after the midterm elections, states like Texas, Ohio, and Georgia have tightened approvals for power, water resources, and environmental reviews for large AI data centers, causing some projects to be suspended or delayed, directly hitting the hardware expansion expectations on the weekly level.
Following the midterm elections, market expectations for accelerated diplomatic resolutions in the Middle East have risen, leading to an over 8% plunge in crude oil prices. If oil prices continue to decline, it could ease inflation concerns and lower long-term US Treasury yields, providing breathing room for the Nasdaq.
Waiting for signals next week $UNI
Uniswap helped establish decentralized token swapping as a major component of crypto's financial infrastructure. Its long-term position depends on maintaining competitive liquidity, efficient execution, and relevance across blockchain ecosystems. One important question remains: how effectively can protocol-level economic activity translate into sustainable value for UNI holders? Governance influence and protocol adoption are related, but they are not identical.$ZEC dropped from 2300 to 1200, more than halved.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
Before the hard fork, it rose to 2300, and I even said this wave of privacy coin market was about to take off. So what happened? After the hard fork, the good news was all priced in, and it crashed straight down from the high point, dropping nearly half.
This is the nature of altcoins — they soar when expectations are hyped, but crash hard when reality hits. Before the hard fork, everyone was betting and it went up; after the hard fork, those who needed to sell sold, those who needed to run ran, and it just collapsed.
Now it has fallen again from the high point. Personally, I’m just watching, not bottom fishing. Do you think 1200 is cheap? It has dropped a lot from 2300, but how do you know how much further it can fall? Privacy coins are like this: they go to the moon when hyped, but go underground when not.
If you really want to bottom fish privacy coins, wait until it stops hitting new lows for several consecutive days before considering. Now? I’m not catching a falling knife.
What about you? $ZEC dropped from 2300 to 1200, do you think it has lost its value or will it keep falling?October non-farm payrolls at 165,000, expected 65,000, more than double the forecast. The rate cut line has basically been kicked away, and bets on a December rate hike are rising. The market's reaction is very straightforward: risk assets are collectively freezing, the Nasdaq weekly dropped about 3.4%, crypto took a hit as well, with over $1 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions. Those getting liquidated aren't the ones who guessed the direction wrong, but those whose positions couldn't hold — I have to repeat this every year. The current market debate is "rate hike or no rate hike," but this debate itself is off track. The real bleeding isn't from the federal funds rate, but from the long-end yields and the strengthening dollar: when the discount rate changes, the most leveraged and most expensive story assets get hit first. The AI sector is the most expensive, so it gets killed first; Bitcoin is dragged in because the market already treats it as the same risk exposure as tech stocks. Historical comparison is here: in September 1998, after Russia defaulted, the New York Fed called several major Wall Street banks into a meeting and pooled $3.6 billion to bail out a hedge fund leveraged over twenty times; that fall, the Fed cut rates consecutively, the Nasdaq bottomed in October, and then rallied until March 2000. What's different this time is that the pressure isn't exploding from one fund's model, but from leverage layered on the same narrative, plus the political cycle after the midterm elections — what comes from outside must be taken back outside. To be clear on direction: I am not chasing shorts at this level; until the 75,000 step is lost, chasing shorts is just going back$AKE typically involves large sell-offs followed by small buybacks; that's just how small operators behavePreviously, the SEC basically only issued fines; this time, it changed the homework.
On November 3rd, the SEC submitted rules for crypto broker-dealers to the White House for review, four at once: net capital, customer assets, bookkeeping, and record retention. It sounds dry, but these few lines are the foundation for whether custody can scale.
The problem is that the supporting details are all missing: the draft hasn’t been made public, the timeline is undecided, and the December 2025 statement was just staff pointing in a direction. The Democrats just won both chambers in the midterm elections and still need to intervene.
So $BTC’s short-term price fluctuations are basically unrelated to this matter; if you really want to watch, wait for the draft to appear. On November 3rd, the SEC submitted a proposal for crypto broker-dealer rules to the White House for regulatory review. To clarify the nature: this is not a fine, but a rule change. The SEC has unusually followed a formal legislative process.
The changes involve four old rules of the Securities Exchange Act. Rule 15c3-1 manages net capital, specifying how much capital institutions must retain; 15c3-3 governs customer asset protection, ensuring whether customers' money and coins can truly be segregated; 17a-3 covers record keeping, and 17a-4 dictates how long records must be kept. Simply put: for institutions wanting to operate as crypto broker-dealers, the requirements for capital, where customer funds are held, how accounts are recorded, and for how long, were previously undefined.
The timeline needs to be understood clearly. There is currently no public draft nor a confirmed release date. In December 2025, the SEC only issued a staff statement without any rule changes. It is too early to discuss whether it will pass.
Political variables have also come into play. The November 3rd midterm elections resulted in the Democratic Party winning majorities in both chambers. The new Congress will take office on January 3, 2027, officially assuming power, with hearings and budget negotiations serving as ready levers.
Assessment: It is unlikely to see a final draft before 2027, but the direction is clear — to fit crypto custody into the existing broker-dealer framework without creating new laws. The compliance gateway for $BTC and $ETH is widening, while for highly volatile assets like $SOL, it depends on how strict the custody channels are.
The sticking point is net capital: whether crypto assets count as qualified assets and at what discount they are included. This will determine who can engage in this business. 20,264 BTC, Riot has sold only 2,418 this year.
In the first three quarters, they cashed out about $1.5 billion by selling coins, all invested into AI data centers.
On November 4, they just signed a 15-year, $28 billion deal: leasing a 910 MW Texas campus to Anthropic, with an annual rent of about $1.8 billion.
Not the only one: MARA sold 23,093 coins, about $1.6 billion, in the first half of the year, and transferred out another 1,650 on November 5.
Bitcoin is still hovering around $76,000, but mining companies are collectively switching to being AI landlords.
I think this isn’t bearish on Bitcoin, but a clear calculation: mining profits are less stable than rental income; the risk is lease delivery delays or AI tenants pulling out.
One of two choices: mining companies selling coins to switch to AI — do you think this is a smart transformation or selling off their assets cheaply?
$RIOT $MARA $BTC
#比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 Answering in two parts: 1. Has the short-term low point (1–3 weeks) arrived? Most likely yes (around 804), but one more confirmation is needed ----- On 11-05, the most extreme panic signal combination in the stock's history appeared 2. Has the mid-term bottom (safe to hold) arrived? No ----- The decline has only lasted 2 trading days; historically, similar collapses take an average of 15–28 days to confirm This is a "panic low," not a "trend bottom." You can speculate on a rebound, but it should not be considered a base position. Historical statistics: What happened after this pattern? I have compiled all periods since this stock's listing where the "20-day drawdown > 20%" occurred, and observed the performance after the low points: 2025-11-21 183.0−20.0% 48.71.49x+20.4% 2026-03-09 517.0−11.8% 49.81.07x+20.7% 2026-07-29 998.2−24.2% 24.31.68x+47.6% 2026-11-05 804.0−26.7% 27.63.38x Under observation Key conclusion: In the past three occurrences of "RSI < 30 + deviation from EMA8 over 20%" extreme lows, rebounds within 20 trading days were +47.6%, +20.4%, and +20.7%, respectively. The current extreme level (−26.7%, 3.38 times volume) exceeds all previous onesInstitutional funds are still continuously flowing out, and the ETF outflow data looks a bit distressing 😮💨
$BTC spot ETFs have seen large-scale escapes for two consecutive days, with outflows this week already exceeding 1.28 billion. BlackRock-led funds sold 411 million BTC and 93.19 million ETH yesterday.
$ETH is even more painful, with 365 million outflows this week, marking six consecutive weeks of net outflows, and no signs of a bottom yet.
From a technical perspective:
ETH keeps hitting lower highs at 2580, 2530, and 2450, with mid-term support on shaky ground, and MACD falling below the zero line into the bearish zone.
BTC's MACD hasn't dipped yet but is very close to the zero line; the price is holding below the 200-day moving average, with short- and mid-term moving averages forming a death cross, continuously suppressing the long-term moving average. If the pressure confirms, the adjustment period will likely extend by more than half a month.
However, in this downturn, $UNI has shown independence and looks very promising.
All market indicators maintain a bullish structure with no bearish signals; on the day of the major US stock market drop, its burn volume doubled directly, showing clearly different capital recognition.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #BTC Spot ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year
I believe that one of the biggest pressures on BTC right now is not just the short-term price decline, but the continuous withdrawal of institutional funds.
From recent capital flows, the US spot BTC ETF has already shown significant net outflow pressure. From November 2 to 6, there was a single-week net outflow of about $1.28 billion, including a single-day net outflow of about $430 million on November 5.
This sends a warning signal worth noting:
1. Weakening institutional buying: Continuous ETF outflows mean that funds allocating BTC through traditional financial channels are cooling down.
2. Declining market absorption capacity: When incremental funds are insufficient, the market is more vulnerable to macroeconomic bearish factors, tech stock pullbacks, and leveraged liquidations.
3. Divergence in fund sentiment: ETF outflows do not mean all institutions are bearish, but at least indicate a short-term decline in allocation willingness.
However, I don't think ETF outflows alone justify concluding that BTC has entered a long-term bear market.
ETF capital flows more reflect the institutions' phase-specific risk appetite rather than being the sole determinant of BTC's long-term value.
What truly deserves attention next is whether ETFs can resume sustained net inflows and whether BTC can regain spot buying support after the selling pressure is released.
News drives sentiment, and capital drives trends. Without incremental funds fueling a rebound, sustainability remains to be observed. $BTC $XLY
Can wage growth support discretionary spending?
In October, U.S. hourly wages rose by 0.4% month-over-month, providing an income base for consumption. However, discretionary spending depends on how much purchasing power remains after deducting essential expenses, interest, and inflation.
An increase in employment does not mean all households simultaneously increase their spending willingness. High-income service consumption and large-ticket items reliant on installment payments may also diverge significantly.
I focus on sales volume, discounts, and consumer credit data. If income growth translates into real sales and promotions are controlled, demand is of higher quality; if income growth is driven by price increases, sales decline, and delinquencies rise, the overall extrapolation of consumption resilience should be reduced.How to view the weekend market, let's talk about the market after the non-farm payrolls release 🤔
Many people previously predicted non-farm payroll additions of only 65,000, but the actual figure came in at 165,000, nearly doubling the estimate, with the unemployment rate simultaneously falling to 4.1%.
Funds immediately repriced, with the probability of a 25bp rate hike in December surging to around 77%.
$BTC dipped to 74,900 last night before quickly pulling back, now grinding narrowly between 75,800–76,000. Focus on the 75,000 level; if it doesn't hold, there is room down to 74,000.
$ETH is noticeably more volatile than BTC, hitting a low near 2,200 last night, breaking the 2,250 support, now rebounding back to the 2,240-2,250 range. Support below is 2,200-2,220; if broken, it could easily head straight to 2,150.
No major data over the weekend; the market is mainly digesting the non-farm negative news slowly, likely maintaining a range-bound pattern without a strong trend.
The real direction will depend on next week's CPI release.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 There has been a phenomenon worth pondering these days: both are deleveraging along with the overall market, but $ETH has fallen significantly more sharply than Bitcoin, once dropping below 2300 and losing seven percent in a single day.
Immediately, some in the backend got excited: the one that fell the most has the greatest rebound potential, should we buy ETH now?
I poured cold water on that. In a round of systemic deleveraging, the leader in the decline is often the one that rose the most fiercely and had the heaviest positions earlier—not because it’s cheap, but because it’s the most heavily leveraged and experiences the most severe stampede. A sharp drop precisely indicates that many people are crowded on this ship, and the clearing is not over yet.
Don’t mistake the top of the decline list for the top of the rebound list. Before the market truly stabilizes and recovers with volume, falling more just means falling more, not that it has bottomed out. What you’re eager to buy is, after all, value or your own anxiety about missing out?Nonfarm payroll data came out directly exceeding expectations, a bit beyond imagination😮
October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, while the expectation was only 65,000, more than double, and the unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%.
With data this strong, the market immediately raised the probability of a December rate hike to about 70-80%.
$BTC briefly pulled up near 76,100 then quickly fell back, now stuck oscillating between 75,500-76,000. 75,000 is an important support; if it doesn't hold, it will continue downward.
$ETH is weaker, after breaking below 2,300 it is grinding near 2,230, with a larger drop than Bitcoin. The fear and greed index is at 28, market sentiment is already bearish.
With employment data this strong and Fed December rate hike expectations heating up, crypto is unlikely to be comfortable in the short term.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Square was flooded with $AKE today, with some doubling their holdings and others recovering losses. Let's take a look under the hood.
Facts:
1. The starting point is not a product benefit, but the OKX wallet's AKE Boost trading competition: 150,000 USDT distributed by trading volume to the top 3000 participants, launched on November 4, and ended today at 19:00 (Beijing time).
2. The market structure is volume washing: PancakeSwap's AKE/WBNB pool had a 24-hour turnover of 43.4 million USD, while the pool liquidity is only 1.23 million USD, meaning turnover is 35 times the pool size; there were 86,565 sell orders, slightly more than 83,486 buy orders.
3. Fuel comes from shorts: this round saw short liquidations of 3.13 million USD and long liquidations of 1.68 million USD; contract positions total about 68.15 million USD, roughly 60% of circulating market cap, with a funding rate of only +0.005% per 8 hours—no bullish frenzy premium, more like mechanical short squeeze.
4. The "points redemption return" cited as a new catalyst by news flashes is actually an old announcement from February 24.
Outlook: About 2.1 billion tokens will unlock monthly on November 21, while the circulating supply accounts for only 22.8% of the total.
With incentives expiring and shorts covering, what will take over next is more worth watching than guessing price moves.
Sources: Surf (citing OKX event rules, GeckoTerminal), CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko
#AKEA signal that's particularly honest but overshadowed by major market headlines: the prices of graphics cards in Huaqiangbei have collapsed.
Before the RTX 50 series, fueled by rumors of overseas production halts, prices surged for 11 consecutive trading days, with the 5080 reaching nearly 20,000. However, since the end of October, prices have reversed and dropped by 20% in recent days. Merchants themselves say that prices in the morning and afternoon are not the same.
The interesting part is this: while the stock market narrative around AI data centers is still tugging back and forth, the frontline channel dealers who stockpile with real money have already started voting with their feet. The retreat of speculation often begins closest to the money; when speculative funds withdraw, prices are the first to know.
Of course, the average price of mainstream cards is still about 1.7 times the suggested retail price, so the bubble is far from fully deflated. But the direction is clear: those that surged first often cool down first. This script is the same in any market.The sentiment for the veteran Meme trio is cooling off, and they are the first to drop.
The Meme sector is down 5.6% overall in 24 hours, $DOGE at 0.072 down 6.7%, $SHIB at 0.0000046 down 3.5%, and $PEPE is the strongest among the three, holding steady around 0.0000050, even briefly turning positive.
Recently, meme tokens were hyped with institutional entries and treasury purchases, but as the tide recedes, many problems have surfaced. Meme tokens have no cash flow, no revenue, and rely entirely on risk appetite.
With the non-farm payrolls disappointing and the probability of rate hikes rising, these assets are the first to be abandoned. But I want to say, when sentiment hits rock bottom, meme tokens actually become the best thermometer to observe the market. When one day DOGE moves first without Bitcoin rising, it means speculative funds outside the market have returned, signaling the prelude to altcoin season. Right now, even the long positions in PEPE are only defending.Core Risk Warnings
1. $75,563 is currently the only "structural survival line": a daily close below it will sequentially test 74,880 → 73,677 → 69,000 (if the weekly close is also below 75,500). Above 75,563, the structure is "bottoming"; breaking below it signals a "new round of decline."
2. The nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations (165,000 vs. expected 65,000) is the biggest macro variable this week: the probability of a rate hike in December at 76.8% has been repriced. The asymmetry of "no follow-through on the upside, doubled on the downside" means any rebound in risk assets is unlikely to smoothly transmit to BTC.
3. ETFs have lost $1.28 billion this month, which is the "hard ceiling" for the rebound: November recorded net inflows on only one trading day, with IBIT as the main source of withdrawals. Until ETFs return to sustained net inflows, any rebound can only be qualified as a "correction."
4. The $11 billion options expiry Gamma pressure is concentrated between 70,000–82,000: today's biggest pain point is 79,000, and market makers' hedging may accelerate volatility around the expiry. "Wait to see if it holds after expiry" is safer than betting on direction before expiry.
5. The "partial replenishment" by whales is not new capital: the withdrawal of 3,009 coins only covers half of the previous sell volume, representing spread trading rather than trend accumulation. The market's default narrative of "whales bottom-fishing" is not confirmed by current on-chain data. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% On one side, the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs has become a trending topic, while on the other side, the listed company Strive announced that it increased its Bitcoin holdings by 15,124 coins from October 1 to 30. How long can corporate buying last, and can it support the market during ETF fund outflows? Let's first look at ETFs: asset shrinkage and fund withdrawals should be interpreted separately. BlackRock's IBIT disclosed in its quarterly report submitted to the U.S. SEC that in the first nine months of 2026, the fund's circulating shares increased by 56.08 million, but net assets decreased by 0.55%. During the same period, Bitcoin's price dropped by 4.31%, and the quarterly report cited the price decline as the main reason for the net asset decrease. Shares increased, but the value of assets held by the fund fell. Looking only at scale changes, it's easy to mistake the price drop and fund withdrawals as two separate negative factors. Now looking at corporate buying, beyond how much was bought, we also need to see where the money came from. Strive disclosed in the same announcement that in October it completed a preferred stock issuance, raising about $609 million net, with a dividend rate of 15% on the preferred shares. A single increase shows how much the company has already bought, but whether it can maintain this pace depends on financing conditions and the ongoing cost of paying dividends. My view is that corporate accumulation indicates there are still buyers in the market. To judge demand recovery, it's more important to see if buying can be sustained and spread. Moving forward, I will watch two things. First, whether ETF redemptions are concentrated in a few funds or spread across multiple funds and persist for several trading days. Second,