Post
Yuvi.
$XLY
工资增长能否托住可选消费？
美国10月时薪环比增长0.4%，为消费提供了收入基础。但可选支出取决于扣除必需开销、利息和通胀后还剩多少购买力。
就业人数增加，不等于所有家庭的支出意愿同步提高。高收入服务消费与依赖分期的大额商品，也可能明显分化。
我关注销量、折扣和消费者信用数据。若收入增长转化为真实销量且促销受控，需求更有质量；若收入靠提价、销量下降并伴随逾期增加，应降低对消费韧性的整体外推。
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