Orbit Post Sitemap
$ATOM Impact on ATOM: Short-term liquidity constraints, no substantial long-term negative impact
Short-term (during upgrade): Deposit and withdrawal suspensions will cause a brief liquidity disconnection. However, the post also mentions that the price difference between Upbit and OKX is less than 1%, indicating no panic discount selling in the market.
Mid-term (after upgrade completion): Once the network stability is confirmed and deposits and withdrawals resume, this technical impact will quickly dissipate. The upgrade itself does not generate new tokens and has no direct impact on total supply or the token economic model.
"Interference" to note: Upbit has a monthly balance audit on October 31, and ATOM is also on the list of 25 tokens with suspended deposits and withdrawals, with staking applications also paused. This is a routine audit all major coins undergo and is unrelated to the network upgrade. Do not misunderstand this as a separate review targeting ATOM.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Damn it! If I had known, I would have held on all along. Damn it, it might go to zero tomorrow. Shitcoin and scam pumpers, just looking at them makes me angry, no vision at all! 😡
【Thighs broken, how much less profit!】
With the October FOMC decision just around the corner, the macro expectation of "high interest rates for longer" is making BTC grind at the 80k mark, altcoin liquidity is extremely scarce, and crashes have become the norm. If I had held that short from 0.0592 last night until now at 0.025, it would have dropped nearly 60%, and with 3x leverage, that’s a full 180% profit! But me, I took profit and ran at 0.0477, although I made +58%, compared to holding now, it’s really just a sip of soup.
Really pissed me off! I clearly saw it was going south all the way, but I chickened out and didn’t hold on. This wave was purely limited by the "lock in profits" mentality. Didn’t even try a "dead cat bounce" trap, just a pure pig slaughter, this shitty coin is completely blacklisted, better if it goes to zero tomorrow, out of sight, out of mind.
The biggest lesson from this wave: for trades that are aligned with the big trend, you must take profits in batches and keep a base position! Don’t run away with all the small profits, otherwise watching the waterfall later is even more painful than losing money. The macro boot hasn’t landed yet, leverage is crowded both ways, ETH around 2300 is also facing liquidation stampedes, altcoin volatility is even more intense. Trading must avoid emotional decisions, keep light positions, strictly control leverage, and capital preservation is always the priority. $BTC $ETH $ZEC In this 24-hour liquidation statistics set, ETH, BTC, and ZEC all have higher short liquidation amounts than long ones, but the differences among the three are not just about the scale of liquidations. ETH: total liquidation of 33,128,200 U, accounting for 26.66%; among which longs are 6,501,800 U, shorts are 26,626,400 U. It has the largest short liquidation amount among these three coins, and the short pressure during the rebound is worth noting. BTC: total liquidation of 17,662,500 U, accounting for 14.21%; longs 7,463,300 U, shorts 10,199,200 U. Compared to the other two, the long and short liquidation amounts are closer, so it cannot be simply summarized as a one-sided short squeeze. ZEC: total liquidation of 6,352,200 U, accounting for 5.11%; longs 598,600 U, shorts 5,753,600 U. Although the total is smaller than ETH and BTC, the liquidation structure is more skewed towards shorts. 💡 My view. The original text tends to interpret this rebound as driven by short stop-loss releases. I focus more on two dimensions: ETH reflects liquidation volume, ZEC reflects directional concentration, and BTC is relatively balanced. Larger liquidation amounts do not equal greater subsequent upside potential. Forced short liquidations may create a buyback demand, but this does not mean new funds are continuously buying, nor does it prove anyone is deliberately "washing out shorts." If prices rise later and open interest declines, it may still mainly be position exits; if liquidations weaken but trading remains active and pullbacks find support, that is more favorable for judging the continuation of the rebound. You would prioritize observing changes in ETH's liquidation scale, and #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix Q3 Earnings Preview | Expecting this performance to surpass market consensus. Core logic: HBM4 yield rates continue to improve, shipments of high gross margin products steadily increase, major cloud providers have ample long-term contracts, and the tight supply situation for high-end memory remains unchanged. Meanwhile, traditional DRAM contract prices keep rising, ordinary storage demand on the server side is warming up, and product mix optimization continues to boost overall gross margin. The current market consensus is relatively conservative, with many funds still worried about pressure from increased HBM supply. However, based on industry production schedules and customer order feedback, demand resilience for high-end computing memory is stronger than the market imagines. The key is to wait for the next quarter guidance after the earnings release; if guidance is raised, it will further confirm the strength of the storage super cycle #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Earnings preview: I predict SK Hynix's performance this time will exceed expectations ✅
HBM remains the largest source of flexibility, with HBM4 volume ramping up, combined with the DRAM price increase dividend, creating a dual positive effect. Many market institutions still maintain a cautious forecast, underestimating the strong demand for high-end storage driven by AI giants' continuous expansion of computing power. The company is restrained in capacity deployment, prioritizing high value-added HBM, without blindly expanding production to impact supply and demand. Of course, predictions are just predictions; until the earnings report is released, everything is subject to change. Going forward, focus on two key points: HBM shipment data and management's guidance on subsequent HBM prices and orders.In the past 24 hours, short positions on DOGE have liquidated over $11 million, mainly hitting shorts, with the largest single liquidation close to $440,000. Meanwhile, a major Solana staking whale unstaked and transferred 300,000 SOL to Binance within 30 minutes, valued at approximately $26.07 million. The account holds three positions with two losses and one gain; shorts are bleeding in a short squeeze, while longs are holding on under heavy macro pressure.
$DOGE short positions show an unrealized loss of -15.92%. Contract open interest surged 33% in five days while the price barely moved. This divergence indicates leverage accumulation rather than spot buying support. Once the short squeeze starts, shorts will have no window for a smooth exit.
$SOL short positions show an unrealized loss of -15.04%. The whale transferred directly from staking contracts to exchanges, a typical pre-sale move, concentrating sell-side liquidity into the order book. The short logic is correct, but the price has not broken down accordingly, indicating longs are still resisting. The odds of continuing to hold on are not favorable.
$BTC long positions show an unrealized gain of +10.04%, the account's only safety cushion. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $263.2 million in one day, ending nine consecutive days of net inflows. Funds are clearly turning cautious ahead of the FOMC. The $80,000 level is repeatedly contested; $82,000 is the next real test, and the trump card can be held.
DOGE's crowded shorts are being liquidated, SOL's whale chips are pressing the market, and BTC's ETF inflows have stopped. Deleveraging, holding trump cards, and waiting for the FOMC to land. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Yesterday's range was slightly off: given 28,874 to 29,269, the close was 29,273, 4 points above the upper boundary. The Nasdaq 100 is currently reported at 29,390 today, 319 points higher than the previous period, and -5.87% from the recent high of 31,224.
But the probability hasn't changed at all: a 28% chance of touching the high within 20 days, with a baseline of 55%. This rebound has narrowed the price gap but hasn't rewritten the pullback scenario.
Today's expected range is 29,202 to 29,579. Tomorrow is the FOMC plus $MSFT, $GOOGL earnings, and Thursday $AMZN, so volatility may exceed the range. Before these events land, the back-and-forth within the range shouldn't be taken as a signal; to reassess, we need to see if the probabilities themselves change after these schedules.$SOXS 483% back then I didn't take profits, now 448%—this 35 percentage points is the cost of me "waiting for it to break another level."
Opened a short position at 52.92, 25x leverage, now at 43.42.
The most tormenting is the 43 level. It went in, then came back out. Around 3 a.m. at 42.69, I thought it had passed; now at 43.42, it has stood outside the door for more than twenty minutes without moving further in.
What I fear most is precisely the "numbness brought by a thick cushion." A 21.88% cushion tonight is second only to APR. The thicker the cushion, the easier it is to relax—but a thick cushion doesn't mean it won't go to zero, just that it will go to zero more slowly. I've seen too many trades not die at the start but after making a lot of profit.
There is also a mental knot: back when it was 483%, I was watching and considering whether to take profits but didn't act. Now at 448%, is the missing 35 percentage points the cost of my "inaction"? This kind of dilemma has no answer. The only thing certain is: if 43 is lost, the breakout is temporarily invalid.
The three things I fear most: first, thinking "the cushion is thick anyway, let it be." Second, itchy hands adding to the position chasing 600%. Third, dawn comes after staying up all night, utterly exhausted.
So don't fight it anymore. Realize most profits, move the break-even up. If it breaks below 42, look at 40; if it stands back at 45, reduce positions. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 “Zero out” or “Hundredfold”? An in-depth review of the CORE token economic model: investment game under an 81-year release cycle.
One of CORE's biggest selling points is its token model designed to benchmark Bitcoin: a hard cap of 210 million tokens, with 40% of the consensus reward portion planned to be slowly released over 81 years. The annual block reward decays at a rate of 3.61%. The official goal is to use this ultra-long release cycle to continuously incentivize validator nodes and BTC stakers, creating a long-term scarcity narrative.
However, this carefully designed economic model is facing significant real-world challenges.
Theoretically, the 81-year long release cycle can avoid massive short-term sell pressure, but the exposure of 69 million ghost tokens has broken the originally preset release rhythm; combined with the continuous withdrawal of official nodes and validator exodus, the flywheel that maintained network security through block rewards is showing cracks. If nodes continue to decline, the model relying on token subsidies to maintain security will become unsustainable, and the 81-year release cycle will instead become a long-term continuous supply pressure.
To realize a hundredfold market surge, not only does the BTCFi sector need to explode, but nodes must stabilize, SatPay must be implemented, and on-chain fee income must gradually replace block rewards; if the ecosystem continues to shrink, the prolonged token release will only keep diluting value, heading towards a zero-out risk.
The 81-year release is a long-term mechanism under ideal conditions, not a capital protection guarantee. A hundredfold gain is a low-probability windfall, while zeroing out is a potential outcome that cannot be ignored, making it unsuitable for heavy investment.Zijin has turned positive simultaneously; is this wave a correction or a short-term rebound?
Just checked the ETF data and found a phenomenon worth discussing:
A few days ago, there was a collective retreat, but today there was a sudden turnaround. BTC net inflow is 40.8 million, ETH net inflow is 29.4 million, and SOL also slightly turned positive. The three major coins moving in sync indeed brought some warmth to the market.
Specifically:
$BTC previously referenced at 84500, 7-day net inflow of 513 million, the battle in the 85000-86000 range will be very critical;
$ETH reference price 2507, although there was a single-day inflow, there is still a 680 million outflow over 30 days, whether 2500 can hold is very important;
$SOL reference price 108.4, 30-day outflow of 57.9 million, chasing highs near 110 requires caution.
But don’t rush to conclusions, the real test is coming soon. Now everyone is wondering, is this inflow an institutional pre-positioning or just a short-term sentiment repair?
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
For market record only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ CORE Coin Prediction: 0.05 or 6.14? Unveiling the Mask of BTC Layer2 to See Its True Value
Many people habitually refer to CORE as BTC Layer2, but strictly speaking, it is a Bitcoin sidechain/L1 public chain based on the Satoshi Plus consensus, not an Ethereum-style Rollup Layer 2. This is the "mask" in much of the promotion about the first layer.
Current: Price ≈ $0.017, circulating supply about 1.5 billion coins, circulating market cap approximately $25 million, total supply capped at 2.1 billion coins.
Scenario One: $0.05 (neutral to optimistic, ≈3x increase)
If the price reaches $0.05 with unchanged circulating supply, the circulating market cap will be $75 million. To achieve this goal, no epic explosion is needed, just the following conditions:
1. Rotation in the BTCFi sector, with funds flowing back into BTC staking tracks;
2. Phantom chips do not massively dump during the price rise;
3. The number of validators no longer rapidly declines, and the network does not further deteriorate;
This level is reachable with a sector recovery and is the most realistic target range.
✅Scenario Two: Hitting the All-Time High of $6.14 (extreme bull market, ≈360x increase)
Returning to the all-time high of $6.14, the circulating market cap would directly exceed $9 billion, which is the market's wildest imagination.
To realize this price, all checkpoints must be cleared simultaneously: In just two days, BTC spot ETF has shifted from net inflows to net outflows, totaling 773.5 million outflows, with almost all funds that came in last week withdrawn. This is not retail investors emotionally dumping, but institutional buying retreating.
During the same period, long-term holding addresses reduced their BTC holdings by over 50,000 coins, and institutions have also paused buying. Interestingly, BTC and gold are weakening simultaneously; currently, everyone prefers holding cash, The 24H gains for CORE, HYPE, and XRP are +1.92%, +5.18%, and +2.59% respectively, but the holding sentiment in this set of statistics is inconsistent: overall short positions slightly exceed longs for CORE and XRP, while HYPE has a slight advantage in long positions. CORE: Long positions 48.30%, short positions 51.70%, long-short ratio 0.9342. 4H gain +3.98%, 7D +1.3%; but 30 days still -25.98%, year-to-date -83.78%. Short-term rebound coexists with longer-term decline; the rebound cannot yet be considered a trend recovery. HYPE: Long positions 50.75%, short positions 49.25%, long-short ratio 1.0305. 4H +1.33%, 7D +3.19%, year-to-date +214.33%. The original post judges that its large holders’ bullish sentiment is also stronger, consistent with the overall statistical direction. XRP: Long positions 48.33%, short positions 51.67%, long-short ratio 0.9354. 4H +0.48%, 7D +1.99%. The original post mentions that its large holders’ long positions are relatively concentrated; CORE’s large holder accounts and holdings data are also biased toward longs, contrasting with the overall slight short dominance. 💡 My view. What really matters to distinguish is “directional consistency” versus “statistical stratification.” HYPE’s different dimensions are relatively aligned, while CORE and XRP show divergence. However, the number of accounts and position sizes are not the same thing; one cannot conclude a full retail versus large holder showdown based solely on these ratios. The original post worries that the divergence may increase the risk of stop-hunting spikes.Why do I say the "darkest hour" of the CORE coin has passed? The market cap logic and ecosystem reversal signals behind the $0.017 price
Many market opinions believe that CORE's most severe phase is over. We review the reversal logic cited by bulls while objectively considering unresolved risks. Bullish perspective: Reasons why the darkest hour has passed 1. Negative factors concentrated and fully erupted at once: The August reward loophole and September hard fork issues have been resolved; most excess tokens have been destroyed on-chain. The market has fully priced in the panic caused by the loophole crisis. The worst inflation disaster has been stopped by the hard fork, preventing a continuous flood of abnormal new tokens. 2. Market cap has been compressed to a minimum: The coin price has dropped from a historical high of $6.14 to around $0.017, a decline of over 99%. Market sensitivity to negative news has greatly decreased, and the momentum for unlimited further decline has been largely exhausted. 3. The long-term narrative of the BTCFi sector remains: A massive amount of idle Bitcoin assets await yield release. Core's unique Satoshi Plus self-custody BTC staking sector positioning remains intact; the Middle East ecosystem project Nawa Finance's Sharia-compliant BTC yield product has launched, opening potential capital inflows from the Gulf region, representing realized ecosystem growth. However, the ecosystem reversal is not yet confirmed, and the crisis is not completely over: 1. 69 million ghost chips still hang overhead, and a market rebound could release selling pressure at any time; 2. The official validator node withdrawal trend has not reversed, and network decentralization remains a concern.Evaluation of Core Overseas community evaluation of Core (Core DAO) ✅ Bullish side (supporters) 1. BTC native consensus narrative Core proposes DPoW (Delegated Proof of Work), introducing Bitcoin's hash power into its own public chain. Supporters believe it is one of the few public chains bound to BTC hash power, allowing it to leverage Bitcoin's security endorsement, belonging to the BTCFi track project. 2. Ecological imagination space The community is optimistic about its BTCFi, SatPay, and other product plans, believing it can bring BTC assets into the Core ecosystem for lending and payments, building a BTC application layer. 3. Miner group attention Many BTC miners pay attention to this project because they can gain additional CORE token rewards without significantly increasing extra mining costs. ⚠️ Bearish/cautious side (skeptics) 1. DPoW mechanism is the most controversial Many in the native Bitcoin community criticize that DPoW is not true Bitcoin security; it only borrows miner signatures and has security model vulnerabilities; they consider it a "parasitic BTC hash power narrative" and not an officially recognized Bitcoin extension. 2. Contract and asset risks DeFi researchers warn that various staking and lending contracts on Core (such as Colend) have smart contract vulnerability risks, and once problems occur, assets are difficult to recover; historically, ecosystem projects have experienced product delays and underperformance. 3. Token economics controversy Some analysts believe the token release volume is large, longCORE has dropped 99%, is buying now "picking up cigarette butts" or "catching flying knives"? 3 key data points tell you the answer
The coin price has plummeted over 99% from its historical high. Many people directly apply Graham's cigarette butt investment logic, believing CORE is extremely undervalued and a great bottom-fishing opportunity. But the core premise of cigarette butt stocks is: the main business capability still exists, and there is no ongoing destructive risk. We use 3 core data points to judge whether it is picking up cigarette butts or catching flying knives. Data ①: The number of independent validators continues to decline
Currently, there are only about 20 active validators left, official nodes are continuously withdrawing, and the network's decentralization is weakening. The core selling point of the BTCFi track is relying on Bitcoin's computing power for security endorsement. If validators continue to be lost, large Bitcoin holders will not dare to stake BTC on a large scale into the ecosystem, and the narrative foundation of the track will continue to be damaged. Data ②: 69 million ghost chips still exist
The hard fork only destroyed tokens stuck in vulnerable addresses; the 69 million abnormal chips transferred out before the fork cannot be recovered. As long as the market recovers, this part of the chips may be sold at any time, always lurking as sudden selling pressure on the way up. This is a rare time bomb for cigarette butt stocks. Data ③: Core product and revenue realization progress is below expectations
SatPay keeps being delayed, on-chain native revenue and buyback flywheel have yet to be realized, and although the Middle East Nawa Finance ecosystem product has launched, it has not brought massive new BTC staking funds. The ecosystem growth is below market expectations. Everyone is waiting for early Thursday morning, but the market moved first today
Everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve early Thursday morning, as if the direction must be revealed at that moment. But the market did not follow the script.
This afternoon, BTC quietly slipped below 80,000, currently at 79,674; ETH is close to 2,305; SOL directly lost 100, now at 99.7. After three days of sideways balance, it did not break upward, but instead leaked downward.
Looking back, it’s simple: by the third day of sideways movement, those wanting to bottom-fish are already fully invested, those wanting to short have lost their nerve, and the rest think, "It’s been sideways like this, how much lower can it go?" So they heavily bet on one side waiting for the data. They are waiting for this kind of moment.
Just after breaking 80,000, BTC has long positions still held at 79,200 and 78,800 below; further down, 77,200 and 76,600 are even thicker accumulations; ETH focuses on 2,282 and 2,242; SOL has 9.69 million near 98. Early Thursday morning is indeed the main event, but no one said the market must wait until then to move. Those who put all their bullets on "data landing" might not even get the first shot.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ The whale's high-leverage full-position short combination layout in the cryptocurrency derivatives market consists of three position cards corresponding to the three mainstream coins BTC, ETH, and SOL. Overall, it presents a risk-reward pattern of "partial coin floating profit, core coin slight floating loss," reflecting the highly representative game logic of cryptocurrency contract trading.
The configuration idea for each short position group is very clear, a typical "heavy on the main, supplemented by the rising" short layout.
Using $ETH as the core profit position, the 26,800 holdings correspond to a nominal value of $63,235,700, with an unrealized floating profit of $2,567,500 currently realized, serving as the income pillar of the entire portfolio;
$BTC acts as a hedging short position, with a larger holding scale of 224.88, but currently a slight floating loss of $123,100, playing the role of anchoring the benchmark risk of the overall market;
$SOL serves as a high-elasticity supplementary position, leveraging its large market volatility to supplement income elasticity, currently also maintaining a slight floating profit.
At the same time, all three orders use full-position mode, with leverage decreasing stepwise from 20X to 30X, balancing aggressiveness and basic risk control awareness.
The most noteworthy detail of this position is that all three coins have obtained positive funding fee income: ETH's funding fee income reaches as high as $2,407,000, even exceeding its own price fluctuation floating profit; BTC also received $252,700 in funding fees, and SOL has more than $6,000 in funding fee income. This indicates that the market was in an extremely crowded long position state at the time, with long positions needing to pay high interest to shorts. This trader not only bet correctly on the price direction but also earned "passive win" income brought by market sentiment, effectively receiving holding interest from the market while shorting.
The risk points of this strategy are also very prominent: BTC's liquidation price reaches $189,722, far exceeding the current mainstream market BTC price range. Once the market experiences an extreme surge, this high-leverage full-position order faces the risk of instant liquidation; meanwhile, the full-position mode means the margin of the three coins is fully connected, and an extreme fluctuation in a single coin may affect the entire portfolio's margin. Although the three short positions seem diversified, they essentially all bet on the same premise that "the cryptocurrency market will not experience a violent surge," without truly achieving risk hedging.
In the cryptocurrency contract market, such a position is a typical example of "high returns and high risks coexisting." It demonstrates the professional trader's skill in leveraging rules to amplify returns but also exposes the ever-present liquidation shadow in high-leverage trading.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Today, we first look at capital inflows, but it's still too early to hastily judge a reversal. BTC spot and futures are synchronously flowing in short-term, ETH leverage funds are replenishing more noticeably, while SOL is supported by spot but futures are still retreating.
BTC spot net inflow in 4 hours is $111 million, futures net inflow is $36.18 million. Extending to 24 hours, spot net inflow is $179 million, but futures net outflow is $92.74 million. The 30-day futures net outflow has 200,000 principal turns into 12 million? CORE coin's all-time high was $6.14, now it's $0.017. Is this a bottom rebound or a zero trap?
Simple calculation: from the current price of $0.017 back to the all-time high of $6.14 is about a 360x increase. If fully invested with 200,000 principal, theoretically it could become 72 million, while 12 million only requires a 60x increase, a huge potential that attracts countless retail investors to buy the dip. But low price does not equal bottom; this asset carries both super high odds and zero risk. The underlying story of the BTCFi sector hasn't disappeared; the trillion-scale idle Bitcoin assets represent the biggest imagination space for the sector. CORE focuses on Bitcoin staking yield; once BTCFi enters a bull market, small-cap public chains have huge valuation elasticity. After continuous sharp declines, the coin price is at a historic low. Many investors believe the negative factors have been fully released, but to realize a big surge, several critical hurdles must be overcome: 1. The number of validator nodes remains low, with few independent validators, so network decentralization and security risks remain unresolved, and large BTC holders dare not stake Bitcoin at scale; 2. 69 million ghost tokens hang overhead—abnormal tokens left from hard forks, which could dump anytime when the market warms, severely suppressing price rises; 3. Core plans like SatPay and buybacks have yet to be implemented, the on-chain native revenue flywheel has not started, making it hard to convert narrative into real value; 4. Competitors like Babylon and Stacks in BTCFi continue to seize market share, intensifying sector competition.本次披露的三笔全仓空单中，ETH未实现盈利256.75万U，SOL小幅浮盈，BTC则浮亏12.31万U。同样做空，收益结构却不一样。 BTC｜30X全仓 持仓-224.88 BTC，价值1826.76万U；开仓价80686.7U，未实现盈亏-12.31万U，资金费收入+25.27万U；保证金60.89万U，所列爆仓价189722.02。 ETH｜25X全仓 持仓-2.68万 ETH，价值6323.57万U；开仓价2456.02U，未实现盈亏+256.75万U，资金费收入+240.7万U；保证金252.94万U，所列爆仓价3264.07。 SOL｜20X全仓 持仓-3.43万 SOL，价值349.07万U；开仓价104.252U，未实现盈亏+8.62万U，资金费收入+6258.24U；保证金17.45万U，所列爆仓价804.12。 💡 我的看法。 这组仓位的重点不只是ETH浮盈最多，而是它的名义仓位也最大：盈利贡献更集中，反向波动时的盈亏变化也更值得关注，不能只按盈利金额判断交易优劣。 BTC的资金费收入高于其浮亏，但两者不能混称平仓利润，更不等于账户净收益。三笔资金费均为正，也不代表From $0.017 to $1? In-depth analysis: Is the next 60x myth of CORE coin brewing!
Rising from the current price of about $0.017 to $1, a nearly 60-fold increase, this huge potential return is the core motivation for many retail investors to persistently hold CORE. We objectively break down what conditions need to be met for this 60x rally to materialize, as well as the major obstacles along the way. If the coin price rises from $0.017 to $1, assuming the circulating supply remains unchanged, the market capitalization would need to expand by about 60 times. Once the BTCFi sector enters a super bull market, a massive amount of idle Bitcoin assets will seek on-chain yield. As a BTCFi L1 public chain featuring the Satoshi Plus consensus, CORE naturally has huge valuation elasticity and theoretically has this potential. However, for the 60x myth to come true, there are several very difficult hurdles to overcome: 1. Node crisis must be stopped: The continuous withdrawal trend of independent validators must reverse, and the network’s decentralization and security must be restored, otherwise large BTC holders will not dare to stake Bitcoin at scale; 2. Ghost chip selling pressure: The 69 million abnormal ghost chips left over after the hard fork could dump at any time during the price rally, severely suppressing upside; 3. Product implementation and delivery: SatPay needs to be launched and operational, with on-chain fees and buyback flywheel truly running, not just staying at the narrative stage; 4. Intense sector competition: Competitors in the BTC staking sector like Babylon and Stacks are constantly vying for market share.📌Pre-market quick notes: A sober reflection before Samsung's earnings report
Samsung will release its full Q3 earnings report on October 29, with preliminary operating profit soaring nearly 8 times year-over-year. AI storage demand is heating up, with HBM4 shipments and memory chip prices being the core factors. The stock rose 2.02% pre-market today, clearly betting on earnings beating expectations 😮.
But no matter how high the profits, beware of the "good news fully priced in" ⚠️. Two key points in the comments: First, Samsung's stock price fell despite record profits, foreign investors are reducing holdings and buybacks are ending, retail investors are moving to US stocks, leaving no net buyers in the Korean market, worsening the buying structure; second, SK Hynix's HBM4 backend equipment orders have been postponed to next year, expansion is slower than expected, the short-term shortage logic remains intact, but once long-term capacity comes online, prices will need to be re-evaluated.
Your previous long position in SK Hynix at 1250 was also a bet on this expectation. When earnings are realized, it is often the time for short-term funds to take profits. Scale down profits in batches above, keep your defense levels tight, and set stop-loss orders properly ⛑️. The above is time-sensitive, intraday variables change fast, don't go naked 😉.Wow, this week is really a bomb week.
Tomorrow night is the FOMC, Thursday's PCE inflation data is forecasted at 3.7%, and on Friday there is also $11 billion worth of BTC options expiring.
The key point is this option—$10.97 billion worth of BTC options on Deribit expire this Friday, accounting for 35% of all open interest. This is the largest expiration event of the year.
What does this mean? Before the options expire, the whales will try to push the price to the strike price most favorable to themselves. It's currently 81,000, and the max pain point is around 80,000. In other words, before expiration, the whales will most likely grind the price back and forth around 80,000.
I think if the FOMC turns hawkish tomorrow night, BTC might first drop then rally. Let's see what old Wash has to say. This kind of market really tests your mindset.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC
The Federal Reserve decision is just a few hours away, BTC is hovering around 80,800 now, with a 24-hour high of 81,298 and a low of 79,505, having reclaimed the 80,000 level again.
Wintermute also said during the day that after three consecutive weeks of decline, the 80,000 line is the lifeline. The previous surge to 87,000 was immediately pushed back, with heavy selling pressure above. Funding rates have returned to a normal level of 0.01%, open interest is around 31,000 contracts, and those betting on the decision haven't been forced to liquidate.
Willy Woo said the top in 2028 could be between 240,000 and 410,000. I believe half of that; whether it tops or not is another matter, but the fact that this veteran bull is still willing to speak out at least shows that big money hasn't fled.
My stance is simple: no adding positions before the decision is finalized; wait to see which side gets buried first, then pick a side. Those who try to jump the gun at times like this are basically providing liquidity for others.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 35 billion USD is not just a financing round; it’s a steel beam forcibly inserted into a load-bearing wall—the building isn’t topped out yet, but cracks are already climbing up from the cash flow foundation.
From the general contractor’s perspective on Meta’s securities financing this time, the 22.5 billion USD common stock financing is like increasing the column spacing, and the 12.5 billion USD mandatory convertible preferred stock acts as temporary support; the convertible terms mean that the temporary support will eventually become a permanent load, compressing the floor space of existing shareholders. With a potential additional 60 billion USD, pushing the total to 95 billion USD, this is not simply adding floors but raising the building height before the foundation settlement is fully understood. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom together may subscribe up to 5 billion USD, more like bringing material suppliers into the project company: rebar and electromechanical are tied to the same balance sheet, which will speed up construction but also makes structural coupling more dangerous.
The funds are directed toward AI infrastructure, which sounds like building new data centers, power, cooling, and compute centers, but in essence, it’s a large-scale load redistribution. Free cash flow turned negative in Q3, and the annual capital expenditure guidance is 135 to 145 billion USD, indicating negative pressure on the cash flow foundation; at this point, relying on common stock and mandatory convertible preferred stock to continue is like using a post-pour belt to patch the main building’s settlement. The real acceptance criteria are not the press release renderings but whether these compute centers can generate sustained profits to cover capital and dilution costs. The tokenized asset $xSNDK is the glass curtain wall of this building, first reflecting the deformation of capital expenditures; when the main structure settles, the curtain wall reacts first, and market linkage also transmits from here.
I don’t look at renderings, only at reinforcement diagrams and cash flow profiles. The financing scale is not the biggest crack; the biggest crack is capital expenditure poured into data centers with excessively long return cycles, while free cash flow can no longer support its own structural weight. When capital expenditure growth outpaces free cash flow, the whole building shifts from a core frame to a cantilever system; a delayed return by one quarter means stress will transfer to the outermost $xSNDK curtain wall. #meta35baifinancingThe isobars over the Strait of Hormuz are being redrawn by an invisible hand, and what I focus on is no longer the channel about to open, but the cold vortex above it that has yet to dissipate.
On October 26, observers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan simultaneously entered the Tehran station, and Qatar submitted a forecast valid for five days: Iran reopens the strait, and the US lifts the port blockade. It looks like a textbook frontal passage: warm moist air retreats, visibility improves, and shipping resumes. But in my years of forecasting, what I fear most is this kind of "looks like clearing up" map: the dispute over the sequence of navigation and unblocking remains unresolved, meaning the order of frontal movement is still uncertain; whether rain or wind comes first, differing by one time step, results in two sets of weather. Tehran excludes the nuclear issue from negotiations, effectively letting the deep cold vortex press over the boundary layer; no matter how much the surface warms, once lifting conditions are triggered, convection will still erupt.
Brent crude fell back to 114.81, WTI to 101.02. This is a drop from a red high-temperature warning to orange, not a cooling. The supply risk premium—the warm moist air—is only temporarily suppressed by a shortwave trough and the moisture transport is not cut off. The Houthi militia claims to have attacked Saudi pipelines, which is a local strong convective cell that large-scale models cannot capture; radar echoes appear clearly once they form, with random impact areas, but each time they disrupt the newly restored visibility again.
The US stock tokenized asset $xTSM shows typical air-sea coupling characteristics: sea surface temperature (oil price) slightly drops, the upper atmosphere (risk appetite) immediately responds, but the response magnitude is always greater than the sea temperature change itself, which is a common problem of turbulence exchange flux amplification. Every time the Strait navigation expectation improves, the $xTSM isobaric surface rises a level; but as long as ship passage through Hormuz cannot be stably observed for three consecutive time steps, this rise is just a false warming in the model: surging during the day, nighttime radiative cooling will still pull the temperature back to the dew point.
Currently, I only give one judgment—
The five-day window is a member divergence of an ensemble forecast, cannot be treated as a forecast, and the divergence is still expanding. #USIranHormuzTalks The $ETH 4-hour chart is telling a rather pessimistic story: each rebound is weaker than the last, and the highs continue to decline. In this structure, 2281 becomes the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears—once it is lost and cannot be quickly reclaimed, the downside space will open up, with the next observation zone around 2200, focusing on whether there is buying support there. Frankly, it is currently difficult to be optimistic about $ETH. But what is truly underestimated is not this downtrend line, but the macro density of this week. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are all releasing policy signals in the same week; US GDP and core PCE data are appearing consecutively; Microsoft, Google, and Amazon earnings reports are clustered. This is not an ordinary week, but a window where the stock market, the dollar, and US Treasury yields simultaneously price the crypto market. The transmission chain of capital flows is more worth watching than the charts: if earnings are strong, risk appetite may first revive the stock market and then spill over to $BTC and $ETH; if data is hawkish, the dollar and yields rising will first drain liquidity, and the crypto space often suffers passively. Most people only focus on the number 2281, but they overlook that it will most likely be redefined by macro news this week. Technical levels are effective during calm periods but are easily gap-breached during event-heavy periods, so the real signal is not the price touching 2281, but the quality of the price reaction above 2281 after data releases—if it recovers quickly, it means buying is still there; repeated attempts without reclaiming it confirm the trend continuation. My judgment is: the current bearish structure of $ETH has not yet been falsified, but the decision on direction this week is not in the hands of the chart, but in theThe proportion of tokens in profit across the entire network remains close to 70%. Meanwhile, exchanges' Bitcoin reserves continue their long-term decline, staying at multi-year lows. October saw neither concentrated panic holding of coins nor large-scale whale withdrawals for hoarding; the available spot chips for immediate trading are continuously shrinking. This means that once new buying emerges, the resistance to price increases is actually thinner than the support for downward breaks. The short-term battleground is tugging between 75,000 and 82,000, but the foundation of the bull market remains intact. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Robinhood's Q3 report is out, adjusted EPS is 0.60, GAAP EPS is only 0.51
Robinhood's Q3 GAAP diluted EPS is $0.51, Wall Street estimated 0.555, so it missed. The company introduced a new adjusted EPS this quarter, which is 0.60. Revenue was $1.42 billion, up 12% year-over-year, slightly below the expected $1.44 billion.
The shortfall was explained in the press release. There was an unrealized loss of $67 million in net profit, or $0.07 per share, mainly due to RVI being accounted for at stock price. This loss basically did not offset taxes, pushing this quarter's tax rate to about 23.8%. Excluding it, the rough tax rate is 20.6%, whereas the previous two quarters were below 20%.
October started off well. As of October 27, net deposits have exceeded $13 billion, of which $6 billion came from the Dell family to Trump Accounts. The full-year guidance upper limit for adjusted expenses plus stock-based compensation was lowered by another $25 million.
After hours, the stock price dropped from the close of 94.56 to about 87 around 6 PM Eastern Time, a drop of about 8%. OKEx perpetual contracts fell from 94.79 at 4 PM Eastern Time to 87.32 at 6:14 AM Beijing Time, down 7.9%.
No was right again.
Alright, the above is my personal opinion and not investment advice Oil prices fell due to expectations of talks on the Strait of Hormuz, Brent closed at $113.88, and WTI dropped below the 100 mark‼️‼️
Although oil prices fell, the market situation is not very good: $BTC account long-short ratio reached 2.39 and continues to rise, retail long positions are extremely crowded, while large accounts are reducing positions simultaneously, spot CVD is negative, and contract-side selling pressure is active
The risk appetite recovery brought by the "oil price decline" has not been confirmed by spot buying on the market, and it has mostly been taken over by retail leveraged longs
The number of attacked vessels around Hormuz hit a new high this year, geopolitical risk premium has only partially retreated and has not disappeared
The oil price news gave a breather, but with crowded retail longs and spot not following, the rebound is ultimately quite limited
There are many trapped positions above, combined with high leverage selling pressure below, the market moves slowly and is complicated
If oil prices continue to fall, long leverage is not crowded, and combined with inflows into $BTC spot ETFs, a good rebound to fill the upper gap could happen
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 🚨 The US and Canada tighten stablecoin yield rules: payments remain payments, savings remain savings! Will this change Bitcoin's value positioning? 💵 The stablecoin market is facing a significant regulatory shift. The core of this battle is no longer just about how to use stablecoins, but a more sensitive question: should users who merely hold digital dollars receive interest or yields? 🇺🇸 In the US, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)'s final rule is set to take effect on January 18, 2027. According to the regulations, stablecoin issuers are not allowed to pay interest or yields directly to users simply because they hold stablecoins. ⚖️ However, the real details worth noting lie in the rule adjustments. The final version removed the previous draft's presumption that third-party rewards might be violations, replacing it with case-by-case reviews based on specific circumstances. This means exchanges or other third parties may still offer certain rewards if they comply with relevant regulations, but not all reward programs will be approved. 🇨🇦 Canada is also moving in a similar regulatory direction. Currently, Canada has launched a 60-day public consultation aiming to restrict non-financial issuers from paying yields to stablecoin holders, with related regulations expected to take effect in fall 2027. 🔥 Why are both the US and Canada emphasizing that stablecoins should not simply become interest-bearing deposits? 🏦 The core reason lies in the stability of the traditional banking system. If users can easily hold digital assets pegged to the dollar while earning attractive yields, then part of theFirst, a quick reversal: last night I thought it would go down further, but today's rebound must be acknowledged. The short positions I held from yesterday were cut off above 80,000, and now I'm basically out of positions, not in a hurry to get back in. Bitcoin is currently around 80,900, up a bit over 1% in a day, and the 80,000 level has been reclaimed; Ethereum is at 2,350, up 1.7%, even stronger than Bitcoin. My current view is that the short-term downtrend is over, but I really don't recommend chasing longs. The variable here is this: yesterday's drop was too fast, and today feels more like a recovery from panic. To confirm a trend reversal, we still need to see if 80,000 can hold for two days. Leave some room in your positions; don't go all in right at the open. What do you think—can the 80,000 level hold for a few days, or will it be smashed down again in a couple of days?Copy trading leads to loneliness! The top KOL on the leaderboard earned about $1.14 million in a month, but someone who copied his trades bought 925 coins and ended up with only $2,524 😂
I just saw a pretty painful experiment. Someone copied all the coins bought by the top 50 on an on-chain KOL leaderboard from September 26 to October 26, a 30-day period. They copied every buy and sell, investing only $10 per coin, with 2% fees on both buy and sell plus 3% slippage.
In 30 days, they followed 55,578 trades in total, making about $16,139, which looks pretty good at first glance. But breaking it down is a bit painful: out of 50 people, 23 caused losses, only 31% of the coins followed were profitable, and about 43% of the profits came from just 10 coins.
The most ridiculous part is the top few. The number one earned about $1.14 million themselves, but the copier only had $2,524 left. Number 4 earned about $285,000 in 30 days, but the copier bought 4,766 coins and actually lost $1,160. The bottom-ranked person earned over $40,000, but the copier lost $3,127. The wallet had to hold about $15,700 at the same time to manage so many trades.
The KOL shows their own account, but when you press buy, the entry price, speed, and slippage are all different. On the same candlestick, some make profits, but most who follow only get a taste, and sometimes even that taste is cold.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less. When buying coins, only buy $BTC Watching the market until now, I suddenly feel this market is very ironic. What crushed the sentiment today was not macro data, nor the Federal Reserve, but "our own people" pulling out first.
Arthur Hayes only said on X, "I sold everything," then dumped 6,400 ETH, about $15.2 million. His meaning is very straightforward: first the drop, then the rise. More strikingly, the Ethereum Foundation's related wallet sold 2,785 ETH on CoW Swap at an average price of $2,304, cashing out $6.42 million and converting it into stablecoins. The project side is taking profits at this point, while retail investors are still waiting for the bull to return.
The ETF didn't give any face either. On October 27, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a single-day net outflow of $88.58 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone seeing an outflow of $104.71 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow. Throughout October, ETH ETFs had a cumulative outflow of over $1 billion, more than three times the outflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs. This is not an ordinary correction; it's money voting.
My short position average price is 2,583, current price 2,307, floating profit 1069%, liquidation price 2,779, with over four hundred dollars buffer in between. The position is not large, following the capital flow, not the illusion of "it will rebound after falling too much." Below, there is $978 million worth of long liquidation orders hanging at $2,209, like a hanging knife.
I don't guess the bottom, I only watch where the money goes. The Foundation and Hayes are both selling; how many more days can 2,300 hold?
$BTC $ETH #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $SOFI held onto its pre-market gains and continued to surge during the session, up 13%.
The management rarely provided a full-year guidance for fiscal 2027, with EPS at $0.90, representing over 50% year-over-year growth compared to fiscal 2026, which itself is expected to see a 50% EPS increase.
This is a company with at least 50% EPS growth for two consecutive years, and given Anthony Noto's style, this $0.90 guidance is very likely quite conservative, meaning Sofi's growth in 2027 could be even faster.
However, the market still values Sofi at less than 20 times forward PE, so the stock remains undervalued. A short-term target of $20 is set, and I am optimistic that Sofi can return to its historical high of $30 by 2027.
Of course, risks remain; no matter how strong the management's execution is, they cannot control macroeconomic headwinds. Tomorrow's Federal Reserve speech will be the most important short-term event affecting Sofi's stock price. A rate hike is unlikely, but the tone on December will be very critical.
I will update Sofi's latest target price later this week.$BTC has risen 109%, climbing from 44% over more than seven hours — but when I glance at the safety cushion, it's only 1.08%, and that little bit of excitement immediately fades.
Opened a long position at 80,046.4 with 100x leverage, now at 80,921.8.
From 44% to 109%, that's an increase of 65 points. That wouldn't mean much on other trades, but with 100x leverage, those 65 points came at the cost of a displacement of 875.4 points. In other words, if it retraces 875.4 points, this doubling will be wiped out completely, not a cent left.
What I fear most are the three words "within reach." 81,000 is just 78.2 points away, 0.10% — tonight I've paid too many tuition fees on these three words. $ZEC changed hands three times at the 1300 threshold, $SNDK hovered around 1300 for two hours but couldn't break through. "Almost there" and "definitely will get there" are never the same.
The three things I fear most: first, the itch to add positions and push to 200%. Second, the 1.08% cushion is too thin, just a pinprick away. Third, dawn is near, exhaustion is extreme, yet this is when I need to be most alert.
So don't fight it. Realize most profits, move the stop-loss up to break even. Reduce positions if it falls back to 80,000, then watch 82,000 after it stands above 81,000. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $HYPE
123,000 HYPE, just over 10 million USD, a whale that had been silent for 27 days directly bought from Wintermute last night.
At the same time, Bitwise's BHYP ETF wallet received 47,000 tokens after unbonding, worth over 3.7 million USD. A whale and an ETF, same coin, same night, both moving in.
HYPE current price just over 81, 24-hour low at 77.2, up about 4% intraday. I don't dare chase at this level; HYPE above 80 is no longer the cheap token it was at the start of the year. But a whale daring to hold 10 million from Wintermute, I take note of this signal.
Last time when the top traders on the four major platforms were only 9% long, I was bearish and got proven wrong. This time I won't rush to take sides; I'll first see if the whale's cost zone holds.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SOL
Polymarket's US version quietly launched a new feature last night: 5-minute crypto price rise/fall predictions, featuring only four coins—BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP.
This selection of four coins is quite telling. Prediction markets used to settle daily or weekly, but now they've compressed it into 5-minute rounds, effectively institutionalizing short-term speculation. SOL making it into this top four is not without reason; in terms of volatility and retail participation, the platform treats it as a standard.
I casually checked the current price; SOL is hovering around 101, with a 24-hour low of 99.2, having recovered quite neatly. Today is also a Federal Reserve decision day, and having this kind of 5-minute market on a decision day is like the casino of casinos.
My view: this is a double-edged sword for SOL. The attention is genuinely coming, but these new participants don’t hold positions—they only bet on direction, so volatility will be amplified by sentiment. The platform knows better than us which coin’s volatility is most valuable, and that statement alone carries weight.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 There are new rules for new orders, and I've fixed them into four points, leaving no room for my 6 AM self.
For $AKE here, 20x short, entry at 0.0232, current price 0.02151, floating profit 145.68%.
Three numbers decide life or death: fallback 7.85%, floor 0.021, ceiling 0.023.
Fallback 7.85% — it needs to rise 7.85% to reach the cost line. The cushion is moderately thin, so you can calmly take profits, but it's not at the "just wait" level. The real "just wait" is for old orders buffered by seventy or eighty.
0.0215 is right on the face (0.05%), the closest level tonight. 0.021 is 2.37% below the feet; breaking it is the first target; 0.02 is another 7.05% down, which is the real space. Above, 0.023 will speak again after being stepped on (7.42% overhead).
Four rules:
1. Stand back above 0.023, reduce position. Don't wait for the cost line; admit failure if the breakout fails.
2. Only talk about 0.02 if it breaks below 0.021. If broken, expect a pullback confirmation.
3. Give it a deadline. At 20x leverage, funding fees are deducted based on nominal position; fees apply even if the direction is correct. Staying flat for a day eats up nearly half the profit.
4. Do not add a single share. Adding to the position turns one gamble into two. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Rebounded to 80.6K, but I first took a look at the perpetual contract open interest, and my heart skipped a beat. Is this wave a real reversal, or just a brief respite after selling pressure? Last night while watching the market, BTC slid from 84.9K down to 79.2K, and the slope of that drop looked pretty scary. Now the price is back near 80.6K, the 4-hour structure still looks weak, but what really concerns me isn’t this small bullish candle, but the activity on the derivatives side. During this decline, the perpetual open interest didn’t collapse significantly, indicating that many leveraged positions are being passively held rather than actively closed out. In other words, the panic selling isn’t completely over. The key level is clear: if 81K can be reclaimed, the rebound structure will look better; if it gets pushed back down, then 80K and 79.2K are the next levels to watch. But what I want to say is the second layer—if 81K repeatedly fails to break through and open interest doesn’t decrease, then what’s likely coming isn’t a slow decline but another sharp forced deleveraging drop to flush out long positions. Under this rhythm, BTC’s rebound will seem very "fake"; the smoother the rebound, the more you need to watch if it’s just setting up shorts for a strike. From the perspective of sector rotation, this derivatives structure has a more subtle transmission effect on ETH and altcoins. When BTC leverage hasn’t been fully cleared, funds are reluctant to rush into high-beta altcoins; ETH at best follows the rebound but struggles to show independent strength. It’s even more obvious on the altcoin side—during rebounds, volume doesn’t keep up, indicating risk appetite hasn’t truly returned. On the bullish side, as long as 81K holds and open interest remains moderate "SK Hynix Earnings Night: AI Soaks Up Cash, Crypto Market Is Being 'Undermined'"
SK Hynix's Q3 operating profit is expected to surge, but its stock price has halved from the June peak. Despite explosive earnings, the stock can't rally because expectations have already been priced in; the real focus is on the HBM4 production schedule and shareholder returns during the earnings call.
For the crypto market, this earnings report is far from positive; it's a fatal "drain."
The massive capital expenditure on AI chips is competing with the crypto market for the same pool of risk capital. The most direct impact is that miners are shifting computing power toward the more stable-profit AI hosting; meanwhile, rising DRAM prices continuously push up mining machine costs, systematically raising BTC's marginal production cost. Although the correlation between BTC and South Korea's KOSPI index has turned negative to -0.41, on a macro level, the AI capital cycle is like a black hole, sucking dry incremental off-exchange funds, causing a severe "fuel shortage" in the crypto market.
Looking back at the market, $BTC is repeatedly tugging at the psychological 80,000 level, with the FOMC holding steady as expected. The biggest risk now is a chain reaction of leveraged liquidations if 80,000 breaks down. $ETH has even broken below the 2350 trendline, funding rates have plummeted 56%, and whales have quietly turned bearish. Currently, EMA120 (around 2333) is the mid-term watershed that ETH bulls must defend.
The earnings report confirms a harsh reality: AI's capital pull remains strong, and crypto's current "relative weakness" is not simply a sentiment retreat but a structural problem caused by the withdrawal of underlying funds. The short-selling script was disrupted by the rebound: $BTC and $ETH surged early—Is this a preemptive move or a bull party before the event?
I originally expected a risk-off pullback before the Federal Reserve announcement, but BTC and ETH disrupted the short-sellers' rhythm first. Currently, BTC is at $80,888, up about +1.1% in 24 hours; ETH is at $2,350, up about +1.8%. The short position profit-taking targets have not been approached; instead, this rebound has pushed them further away.
From the daily chart, BTC RSI(6) has risen to 43.06, ETH to 35.80, both moving out of previously weak zones; large net inflows of funds for both, with BTC about +3,128 BTC and ETH about +29,639 ETH. This indicates that short-term buying and covering forces are lifting prices, not just a volume-less pump.
However, I still do not consider this a trend reversal for now. BTC and ETH's MACD remain in a death cross structure, BTC has yet to break above MA7 and MA25, and ETH's supertrend is still bearish; both currently have trading volumes below the 7-day average. In other words, there is a rebound, but the trend confirmation is insufficient.
The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on 2026-10-28. The market's real trading focus may not only be on the interest rate itself but also on the post-announcement statements regarding inflation and subsequent policy paths. For me as a short-seller, what to watch next is whether the rebound can expand volume and reclaim the short- to mid-term moving averages; if not, this rally looks more like an emotional rehearsal before the news lands rather than a complete trend reversal. I am the mid-term intelligence guy
24h total liquidations across the network reached 139.31 million, with long positions accounting for 57.5%.
I am closely watching the short cycle: nearly 8.89 million liquidated in the past hour, with longs as high as 8.27 million! The shorter the cycle, the more longs lose, indicating no major crash but weakening support, and momentum chasing the rally is being continuously cleaned out.
$BTC liquidations at 32.19 million (longs 63.7%),
$ETH at 23.75 million,
$SOL at 5.72 million.
BTC heatmap shows a large accumulation of liquidations between 81,700 and 82,900; a short-term rebound may test this area, but if it can't hold above 81,500, it remains bearish.
Considering the ETF funds from the day before only recognize BTC + this week's hawkish FOMC expectations,
Mid-term I insist: do not chase highs, beware of "selling the fact." Wait for the FOMC to cause a volume-shrinking dump, then buy BTC core support at lower levels, continue to watch ETH/SOL, prioritize stability!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The FOMC decision is very likely to keep interest rates unchanged. At 6 a.m., the market is no longer trading on the decision itself, but on Powell's wording about the December path in the latter half of his press conference. BlackRock's opposite moves on BTC and ETH are more straightforward than any directional judgment: IBIT alone absorbed a net inflow of $110.3 million for all Bitcoin ETFs, while ETHA saw a record single-day net outflow of $104.7 million on the same day.
$BTC is around 79,700. The area above 81,300 is a dense short liquidation zone, while 79,100–79,200 below is the thickest long liquidation layer. In the early morning, it is more likely to first trigger long stop losses downward, then depending on the wording decide whether it can reclaim 80,000; if 78,800 is broken, 77,600 comes into view.
$ETH is around 2,310. 2,300 is a psychological barrier; pressure from the ETF side remains unresolved. Holding it is necessary for recovery; if broken, 2,250–2,280 is the next layer.
$SOL is around 100. The area above 101.44–102.22 is a short liquidation zone, while 99.79–99.38 below is a dense long zone, with smart money short profits and retail holding positions. 98.6 is a stop-loss reference point; breaking below it will accelerate the squeeze.
In short: at 6 a.m., watch whether Powell's wording or liquidation levels speak first. For BTC, watch 78,800 and 81,300; for ETH, watch 2,300; for SOL, watch 98.6.
This is only a market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ ZEC is currently trading at about $1,297, up 3.16% in 24 hours, showing strength against the trend as Bitcoin falls below $80,000, making it one of the few assets recently outperforming the market. A key technical turning point has appeared: the daily MACD has just crossed above the signal line again, the histogram has turned positive after being negative for a whole month, and the RSI has risen to 51.93 and crossed above its own moving average, ending its previous state of staying below the moving average. The price oscillated around $1,235 throughout October, with buying pressure entering on dips and selling pressure encountered on breakouts. To confirm a recovery, it needs to reclaim $1,390 on the upside; the trendline support is near $1,170, and a daily close below $952 would invalidate the entire structure. There are three news points worth watching. October 28 marks ZEC's 10th anniversary; Grayscale's research head pointed out that its model of allocating 20% of block rewards to a development fund helped the network survive the long bear market. Co-founder Sean Bowe proposed a draft on October 26 suggesting to end the automatic 8% block subsidy flow to community grants and redirect it to a network sustainability mechanism, reasoning that the ZCG treasury has accumulated about $125 million with annual expenses of only about $6 million, resulting in a serious surplus of funds. Signals from the derivatives side are complex: 74% of whales on Hyperliquid are long, there is a $4 million sell wall at $1,232, and longs and shorts are locked in a very narrow range; any forced liquidation of one side could trigger a chain reaction. The defense quality between $1,170 and $1,235 is more worth watching than any single indicator.Nightclub girl's diary of going ashore to trade crypto
BTC is about to hit a resistance level, so I'm openly setting up short positions!
The previous drop already broke below 79,000, and now with this rebound, I plan to catch the pullback after the bounce.
The logic is actually very simple: it's a gamble on a secondary pullback after a weak rebound.
From a technical perspective, the 81,488 level is just below the previously broken dense chip area, which is a strong resistance for this rebound.
BTC is pulling up from 80,000, but the trading volume can't keep up—this is a typical low-volume bull trap, looking lively but lacking buying momentum.
This kind of low-volume rebound is the easiest to trap people; it looks like a stable counterattack, but mostly it's just shorts covering pushing the price up.
Once it faces pressure and turns down near 81,488, that's a comfortable shorting opportunity.
But you have to keep a backup plan: if volume surges and it holds above this resistance, then this bearish idea fails and you shouldn't stubbornly hold on.
Before the market settles, no one can guarantee anything. Low-volume rebounds have very low tolerance for error, so leverage must be light. Nightclub girls cashing out to trade crypto diary
The US and Canada have started tightening interest payments on stablecoins. To put it simply: payments are for payments, hoarding coins is for hoarding coins.
This round of regulation is not just drawing a simple line; the core is to cut off the path of "earning interest just by holding stablecoins."
The final rule from the US OCC will take effect on January 18, 2027: stablecoin issuers cannot pay interest directly just because users hold the tokens. Interestingly, the clause in the draft that "third-party rewards are directly considered violations" was removed and replaced with case-by-case review, effectively leaving a loophole for exchanges and similar third parties.
Canada has also started a 60-day consultation, planning to ban non-financial issuers from distributing yields to coin holders, to be implemented in fall 2027.
Many people's first reaction is that this is good news for Bitcoin, but in the short term, it’s not really a giveaway. The regulators want to firmly keep stablecoins positioned as payment tools, not to let them become substitutes for bank deposits.
The future landscape is gradually becoming clear: stablecoins are for transfers and payments; BTC is mainly for value storage and hoarding.
However, the US banking industry is already in an uproar. The banking association directly criticized the OCC’s rules, saying they will accelerate deposit outflows and squeeze community banks’ lending capacity.
The tug-of-war is far from over, and the detailed rules on stablecoin yields may still see repeated changes, with considerable uncertainty.
For the market, short-term sentiment disturbance is limited; long-term it is reshaping the capital logic. The space for earning passive income on stablecoins is gradually restricted, and funds will reconsider allocations among bank deposits, stablecoins, and BTC. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, a result already fully priced in by the market. What truly matters is the wording of the statement and the guidance from the chair's press conference — this will determine whether a rate hike in December is "highly likely" or "certain." The key contradiction lies in: inflation remains elevated (September core CPI up 0.3% month-over-month, 3.7% year-over-year) vs. marginal weakening in employment and growth (September nonfarm payrolls only 29,000). The Federal Reserve tends to "wait and see before acting," postponing the rate hike window to December, using more data from October-November to verify the persistence of inflation. Tonight is the decision night, there are a few numbers that are more useful than guessing the rise or fall
First, about last night's early moves: Micron rose 2.34%, the Nasdaq rose a bit over 1%, and Bitcoin also touched 80835. It looked lively, but the double high at 80850 wasn’t surpassed before sleep. If you’re really determined to go long, you wouldn’t miss these 15 points
Next, the rate is still positive, those going long are still paying rent. After a week of decline, there are still many bottom-fishers, but this doesn’t look like a bottom. The bottom comes when no one dares to bottom fish
Also MSTR, which just dropped 4.24% on Monday, Coinbase also fell nearly 3%. Both coin buyers and exchange operators are being sold off, this is more honest than candlestick charts
So now, outside is rushing in, inside is retreating. The phrase at 2 AM tonight is here to pierce through this paper-thin layer
My plan is simple: if 80850 holds, I’ll admit defeat and chase a bit; if it doesn’t hold, I’ll keep watching. If 79200 breaks, don’t reach out to catch it. Don’t be reckless before the knife falls
Anyone staying up late tonight, or are you all preparing to wake up and see the result?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $MSTR