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$BTC ETF inflows don’t guarantee a price increase. Overall market supply and demand, selling pressure, liquidity, macro conditions, and derivatives positions all play a role. Consistent inflows are worth watching, but they’re only one piece of the puzzle.
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek 1. What is the project? Full name BankrCoin (BNKR), an AI trading agent token on the Base chain. Backing product Bankr: chat and place orders in natural language on Farcaster / X ("Help me buy 100 PEPE"), the bot executes on-chain swaps. Token use cases: pay swap fees, Bankr Club membership, governance, early staking. Contract: Base chain 0x22af...76f3b, total supply 100 billion, circulating about 99.3 billion (99%+ already circulated). 2. Current status (October 2026) Price: about $0.00038 (peak $0.0012 in February 2026, about 68% retracement) Market cap: about $38.5 million 24h volume: about $1.8 million, liquidity is thin Holders: 230,000+ addresses (Farcaster ecosystem drives volume, but real activity is questionable) Listings: Gate, Poloniex and other secondary exchanges, not on top-tier core exchanges. 3. Advantages (with narrative) Not a pure meme, has a running product (AI Agent executing trades) Backed by Base chain, part of Coinbase ecosystem, AI + social trading narrative is coherent Fully circulated, no massive unlocking dumps Has fee buyback + staking cooldown mechanism, logically can capture some value. 4. Risks (key point) AI Agent income is minimal: swap fee base is low #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Profits will continue, but the consumer market can no longer afford high prices. New profit numbers may not be accepted by the capital market. Watch for a pullback tonight.The crypto market in October 2026 appears to be consolidating with narrow rotations on the surface, but underneath, there is a structural shift in the nature of capital. The most prominent signal is the "divergence between the index and breadth." The altcoin season index rose to a one-year high of 66, but only 6 out of 26 narrative categories increased, with the breadth of gain dropping sharply from 92% two weeks ago to 23.1%. Leading sectors are concentrated in infrastructure layers such as on-chain voting, cross-chain bridges, and data availability, while retail-focused sectors like social, Meme, and the Solana ecosystem generally declined. This is not a broad-based altcoin season but a concentrated rotation of existing capital within very narrow tracks. At the sector level, only three asset types truly outperformed Bitcoin in 2026: token trading, AI, and privacy. VVV rose 1,431% for the year, NEAR increased 203%, and ZEC gained 137%. However, DWF Labs also pointed out that the integration of AI and crypto "has not yet been priced in by the market," and DePIN, AI payments, and identity verification may be the next narrative implementation directions—there remains a significant lag between narrative hype and fundamental realization. The generational shift of institutional capital carries more directional significance. Since August, ETFs have replaced corporate treasuries as the marginal buyers of Bitcoin, with IBIT accounting for the vast majority of net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs. But Coinbase's institutional co-CEO clearly stated that the core driver for institutional adoption has shifted from ETFs to stablecoin payments, with stablecoin settlement volumes reaching $400 million per hour, and seven of the world's largest banks are building on Coinbase's infrastructure Whales are dumping their prey; prey worth 482,228 $SOL (approximately 49.17 million USD) is being sent to the market for sale.
In the past three days, three wallets (possibly belonging to the same giant whale) have transferred a total of 482,228 SOL with the intent to sell.
• Total SOL transferred out: 482,228 SOL (approximately 49.17 million USD)
• 171,430 SOL (approximately 17.3 million USD) has been deposited into exchanges.
• More than 310,000 SOL tokens remain unlisted, so selling pressure may continue.
• The claim that these three wallets belong to the same owner is based on on-chain data speculation and has not been confirmed.
I have seen some large holders transfer nearly 50 million USD worth of SOL within three days, with nearly one-third already flowing into exchanges, so future selling pressure remains significant. I believe SOL is very likely to face downward pressure, especially with Bitcoin prices hovering around 80,000 USD and the market awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting results. I am currently hesitant to try to bottom-fish SOL; I will wait and see if the remaining SOL will be sold to exchanges.
People think this whale is robbing assets or has a premonition, which is why it is fleeing.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Short-term realization is without doubt
The actual Q3 results have already provided the answer: revenue of 104.6 trillion KRW and operating profit of 83.3 trillion KRW, both exceeding market expectations, with the operating profit margin further climbing to 80%. The company clearly guides that in Q4, HBM4 will surpass HBM3E in both shipment volume and sales revenue, becoming the main product and reaching full production capacity by year-end. This means the ramp-up pace of HBM4 itself has not faltered, and the generational switch from HBM3E to HBM4 is progressing as planned. Looking solely at "whether HBM4 can sustain profitability," the short-term answer is affirmative. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 After the U.S. stock market closed on October 27, the commodity market showed a highly divergent structure: gold barely stabilized around the $4000 level, silver weakly rebounded after hitting a new low for the year, copper maintained a high level caught between AI sentiment and inventory realities, while natural gas moved in the opposite direction due to the split logic between European and American markets. The common thread across these four commodities is the decline in oil prices—progress in Middle East diplomatic mediation has lowered the energy risk premium, but this clue transmits differently across various commodities. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Gold: The $4000 Battle, Breathing Room Borrowed from Oil Prices
Spot gold rebounded on Monday from a more than three-month low last Friday, closing up 0.6% at $4020.60/oz, with COMEX December gold futures up 0.8% to $4038.40. However, gold prices fell below $4000 again during Tuesday’s session, trading around $3995 during European hours, down 0.5% on the day.
The direct driver of the rebound was the drop in crude oil prices. StoneX strategist Bob Haberkorn put it precisely: "Crude oil prices fell slightly, providing some support to gold prices, along with some dip-buying." But this support is fragile—it depends on oil prices continuing to fall rather than a fundamental strengthening of gold itself. The suppressing factors are also clear: the US dollar index stands above 102, the market still prices an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5%, so the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold has not materially decreased. The Guotai Haitong metals team pointed out that tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices high, inflationary pressure remains significant, and expectations of Fed rate hikes persist, all suppressing precious metal prices.
Capital flows also send warnings: the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has reduced holdings for four consecutive trading days, with holdings dropping to 1040.79 tons as of October 26. Technically, $4000 is a key support level; a sustained break below could signal further weakness. The real directional choice awaits the Fed decision on Wednesday and the PCE data release on Thursday.
Silver: Weak Rebound After Yearly Low, Bearish Structure Unchanged
Silver’s situation is more passive than gold’s. During the Asian session on Tuesday, spot silver briefly fell to a yearly low of $52.66/oz, then rebounded supported by Middle East diplomatic progress and falling oil prices, trading around $54.36 intraday, up about 0.74% on the day.
However, this rebound is more of a technical correction than the start of a trend reversal. On the daily chart, silver prices remain below the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages, with lower highs and lower lows intact. The RSI is near 34, oversold but not at extreme levels, and the MACD remains negative, indicating weak momentum. Compared to gold, silver is more sensitive to interest rates—speculative positions are heavier and market depth shallower, so the same capital outflow causes a larger price impact. This is the fundamental reason silver broke below $53.01 to an approximately 11-month low: it faces dual pressure from interest rate headwinds and its industrial attributes.
Policy expectations set a ceiling from another angle. Although a pause in October is fully priced in, the probability of at least one rate hike before year-end remains as high as 82.3%. The FXS Fed sentiment index stays at a hawkish high of 127.51, meaning any rebound is likely to face selling pressure at relatively low levels. Resistance at $55 is the primary barrier; if it breaks below $52.67, it may test the psychological $50 level.
Copper $XCU: AI Sentiment Supports, Inventory and Premium Provide Support, But Upside Is Limited
LME three-month copper rose 0.9% to $14,462/ton on Tuesday, Shanghai copper main contract closed at 108,390 CNY/ton, up 0.19%, with spot premiums widening to a high of 920 CNY/ton.
Copper’s support comes from two levels. On the macro sentiment side, the rebound in AI concept stocks directly supports copper prices, with market expectations that AI infrastructure expansion will drive copper demand, while supply remains constrained, especially in China. On the industrial fundamentals side, mine tightness and smelting production cuts remain the main themes, inventories are being drawn down across the board, and high spot premiums reflect limited available resources. Extreme weather in Chile disrupting output and Norilsk Nickel’s announcement of a nine-month major overhaul of the Nadezhda plant next year, reducing 2027-2028 output, constitute substantial supply constraints.
However, upside space is also clearly limited. During LME Week, Citi observed that market participants generally hold a cautious attitude, worried about weak economic growth, AI investment risks, high energy prices, and US copper tariff policies not meeting expectations. Citi currently maintains a neutral view on copper, believing that while long-term demand is supported, short-term direction lacks clarity until policy and energy markets become clearer. Domestically, the US-China copper arbitrage narrative is nearing its end and the market is entering a seasonal lull; Shanghai copper main contract is expected to trade in the 107,000-109,000 CNY/ton range in the short term.
Natural Gas $NG: Divergent Logic Between Europe and the US, US Weak, Europe Strong
Natural gas shows the most internally divided trend among the four commodities. The US NYMEX natural gas main contract fell over 1%, trading around $2.98/MMBtu, with the North American market relatively independent due to its own production recovery and export bottlenecks, putting price pressure.
The European market moved in the opposite direction. The Dutch TTF near-month contract fell to €96.29/MWh, ending a four-day rally, having closed at a four-year high of €97.19 the previous day. The pullback was triggered by new developments in Middle East diplomatic mediation and some profit-taking by longs. However, the correction is expected to be limited, with core support coming from extremely thin supply buffers: EU underground gas storage fill rates stalled at 74.6%, the lowest for this time of year since records began in 2009; Germany’s storage is just above 61%, while the five-year average is 89%; Norway’s Oseberg field unplanned outage volume was raised from 7.7 million cubic meters per day to 12.7 million; Qatar Energy’s partial cargo deliveries to Italy’s Edison company are not expected to resume until the end of December. Given this inventory base, European pricing logic has shifted from "cost-plus" to "shortage pricing," and the depth of the pullback is expected to be limited until storage is effectively replenished at the "hard bottom."The Treasury "secretly opened the floodgates," pushing yields down
First, let's look at the underlying macro catalyst behind this rebound.
The U.S. Treasury announced it would double its purchases of long-term government bonds—from $20 billion to $40 billion. The direct effect of this move is a temporary suppression of long-term Treasury yields.
Do you understand this chain of events?
Bitcoin fell from 87,000 to 79,000, and one of the main culprits was the 10-year Treasury yield staying above 5%. The risk-free rate was too high, making zero-coupon assets unattractive. When the Treasury steps in to buy long bonds and push yields down, the "opportunity cost pressure" on Bitcoin is marginally eased.
At the same time, market concerns about inflation and government debt are heating up. When investors start to suspect that "the Treasury might be effectively printing money," the narrative of Bitcoin as a "scarce asset" is reactivated.
This is not the power of the "crypto narrative." This is the expectation of "fiscal deficit monetization" that is repricing Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 ETF单日流出从1.172亿收窄到3,260万，几乎只有前一天的零头。卖压要结束了吗？ 先说新闻。资金侧：最新单日净流出3,260万（前一日净流出1.172亿）、5日仍净流入2.948亿、10日净流入1.289亿。价格侧：BTC报80,057美元，24小时 -0.46%、近一周 -3.09%；20日区间79,220.1到84,899.6。情绪侧：恐惧贪婪指数从50回落到48。宏观侧：美元指数102.08（+0.11%）、黄金4,024.8（+0.42%，重回4,000上方）、标普500 7,676.77（+0.70%）。 再看资金影响。流出收窄的意义在于速度：如果前一天是恐慌性卖出（1.172亿），第二天只有3,260万，说明最恐慌的一批已经出完了。判断卖压是否结束，关键看接下来两天：如果继续收窄并转正，资金面就修复了；如果重新放大，那只是短暂喘息。 对BTC的含义：价格守住8万、流出收窄、黄金收回4,000——这三个信号同时出现，说明市场在做修复而不是崩溃。但恐惧贪婪指数跌到48，说明情绪还没跟上，修复仍处于早期。 我接下来盯四个指标：一是ETF单日能否转正；二是BTC能否守住79,Two publicly listed companies hoarding Bitcoin: one is accelerating purchases, the other has paused 🧐
According to the 8-K filed by Strive to the U.S. SEC on October 26, it bought 6,182 $BTC from October 17 to 23 at an average price of about $82,732, bringing its holdings to 43,000 coins. Bitcoin Treasuries notes this is its largest single purchase. According to its supplemental prospectus, the total cost for these 43,000 coins is about $3.8 billion, averaging approximately $87,785 per coin.
In the same week, Strategy did not buy any coins but spent about $205 million in cash to repurchase its own preferred shares STRC. It holds 848,517 coins at an average cost of about $75,446.
This morning at 08:42 (Beijing time), OKEx spot $BTC was about 80,774 USDT. Roughly calculated at this price, Strive’s batch of coins is showing an unrealized loss of about $300 million, while Strategy is still in profit.
My understanding: the company with the higher cost basis is more eager to lower its average price; the one with the lower cost basis is prioritizing its financing instruments. The buying activity of companies hoarding coins is not a straight line; the weekly Monday holdings announcements are more worth watching than slogans.
Do you think Strive buying more as the price falls shows confidence or pressure?
Personal opinion, not investment advice Just after 2 a.m., I originally wanted to use the restroom and then go back to sleep, but I casually checked OKX contract data. After reading it, I was instantly wide awake. Don’t think the sideways movement these days means stabilization; actually, all the leverage is squeezed together!
$BTC current price is 80519, stuck around the 80,000 mark playing tricks back and forth. The 4-hour long-short ratio is as high as 2.38, and open interest stubbornly refuses to drop. Everyone treats 80,000 as a solid floor, lining up below to ambush with long positions. With such heavy weight, how could the main force possibly carry the market upward?
Look at ETH at 2345, breaking below previous lows with a weak rebound. Strangely, open interest keeps surging, the long-short ratio hitting 2.44. The more it falls, the more buying happens; retail leverage keeps stacking up. Even slight pressure triggers a chain of bloody liquidations. Then look at SOL at 100.77, stubbornly stuck at the 100 mark, with the 4-hour long-short ratio rising to 3.16! Funding rates are still positive, longs lining up to pay funding fees. Once this thin barrier breaks, it’s unimaginable.
My view: With the October FOMC decision just around the corner, macro expectations of "higher rates for longer" are suppressing the market, and liquidity is extremely scarce. The bullish sentiment is so crowded now that once liquidity arrives, it’s very easy to trigger a one-sided shakeout. Anyway, I’m firmly empty-handed watching the show. This kind of market tends to get hit from both sides, so keep positions light, control leverage strictly, and prioritize capital preservation. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Why does an increase in Bitcoin ETF inflows not necessarily mean the price will rise?
As the connection between traditional financial markets and crypto assets deepens, Bitcoin spot ETFs have become an important window to observe institutional capital demand. When ETFs show net inflows, the market often wonders if this means more funds are allocating to Bitcoin. However, capital flow is only part of market analysis and cannot be directly equated with a price increase signal.
First, ETF net inflows and overall market demand are not the same concept. Net inflows reflect the subscription and redemption of funds for a specific product over a period, but Bitcoin is simultaneously traded across multiple global platforms. Even if ETFs continuously receive inflows, other market participants may be selling at the same time, and ultimately the price depends on the overall supply and demand balance.
Second, there may be a time lag between capital inflows and price changes. Some investors may position themselves in advance, while others may increase allocations only after the market rises. Therefore, single-day inflows cannot independently prove that a price trend has formed, nor can they guarantee that subsequent funds will continue to flow in.
Third, it is necessary to pay attention to the scale, duration, and market environment of the inflows. Continuous inflows over multiple days may be more informative than single-day anomalies, but still require comprehensive judgment combined with trading volume, market liquidity, macro expectations, and derivatives positions.
Additionally, ETF inflows do not mean all holders are bullish on Bitcoin long-term. Different investors may operate for arbitrage, asset allocation, or short-term trading purposes.
Truly valuable analysis treats ETF capital flows as one observation indicator rather than using it alone to predict price.
If Bitcoin ETFs have consecutive days of net inflows but the price does not show a clear rise, which factors do you think should be further considered? $BTC #Strategy pauses accumulation, Strive and BitMine expand reserves
The leader has something to say
Last week, there was a clear divergence in the allocation of listed companies' digital treasuries.
Strategy did not increase its BTC holdings but instead repurchased about $205 million in STRC preferred shares, maintaining a position of 848,500 shares. Strive increased its BTC holdings by 6,182 coins, but the newly issued preferred shares have a high dividend rate of 15%. BitMine increased its ETH holdings by 10,452 coins, with a total holding of about 6.05 million coins, of which 5.23 million are staked, generating an annualized income of about $318 million.
I believe the competition now is about whose model is more stable. High-interest financing to buy coins can crush cash flow during sideways markets. The comments are accurate: Strategy paused accumulation due to financing constraints, not bearish sentiment. Institutions have not exited but are rotating positions, with Strive and BitMine taking over.
In the market, BTC fell slightly by 0.20%, ETH by 0.19%. BTC experienced a waterfall drop last night; now we watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper correction, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the fall; set your stop-loss orders properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $DOOD On October 28, SK Hynix made the latest statement: it believes its current stock price is undervalued.
At the industry level, the structural imbalance between chip supply and demand will continue in the short term.
The company's core optimistic logic lies in: the AI business revenue and cash flow of downstream core customers are improving, and as a result, the customers' ongoing pressure and investment burden on AI funding will be alleviated, which is expected to support the resilience of HBM and AI storage demand.
Market interpretation: This is management's response to the current divergence in the storage sector. Previously, the market was concerned that cloud vendors' AI capital expenditures had peaked and that a turning point in the market cycle was approaching, which was the main reason for the earlier pullback in storage stocks.
However, it should be noted: structural imbalance ≠ overall supply shortage; consumer-grade storage remains weak; this statement is an optimistic guidance from management and cannot directly reverse the already weakening sector trend, so it is still suitable to be regarded as a rebound logic.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 【Market Real-Time Quotes】$BTC $80,929 (24h +0.01%), $ETH $2,351 (24h +0.02%), $SOL $101 (24h +0.04%), $BNB $746 (24h -0.04%). The market remains sideways ahead of the FOMC, Bitcoin dominance at 59.79%, funds have not left crypto, just consolidating into $BTC. 👇 Let's clarify the core facts of today's news first: 🏭 SK Hynix's capacity sold out: On October 28, SK Hynix stated in its earnings call that based on locked long-term supply agreements (LTA) and specific customer negotiations, DRAM and HBM capacity through 2029 is fully sold out. It's not "strong demand," but the volume for the next three years is already accounted for. 📈 The "backlog order" logic for AI storage: Micron previously informed investors that customers committed to about $22 billion in multi-year agreements to lock in memory supply. This level of visibility turns deals from "hope" into "backlog orders." SK Hynix holds a 56.4% revenue share of the global HBM market in Q1 2026, positioned at the tightest link in the AI supply chain. 📉 The crypto side mirror: Digital asset investment products have seen continuous outflows in recent weeks, with altcoin participation dropping sharply from 11 assets three weeks ago to only 5 now. Trading desk feedback is highly consistent: holding $BTC or USDETH's short-term trend remains bearish, with a high probability of continuing to test lower support; whether it can stabilize in the mid-term depends on whether ETF capital outflows slow down and if key levels can hold. Currently, multiple analyses point to further downside rather than an immediate reversal. Where is the short-term resistance? • Continuous capital outflow: In October, the net outflow of spot Ethereum ETFs has exceeded $1 billion, the highest monthly outflow this year, indicating a clear weakening of institutional demand. • Technical and leverage vulnerability: The price is below all short-term moving averages, and open interest still exceeds $30 billion. If key levels are broken, highly leveraged longs may trigger more forced liquidations. • Upgrade catalyst delay: The Glamsterdam testnet was postponed due to security vulnerabilities, removing a potential short-term positive catalyst. What levels to watch below? • Primary support (around $2,220): Multiple analyses regard this as the next key psychological and technical level. If this level is continuously broken, the price may further slide to the $1,850–$1,920 range. • Conditions for rebound: Only by reclaiming and holding above $2,440–$2,520, accompanied by easing selling pressure, can the bearish structure truly improve. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Let's review 4 crypto projects together: $WLD (World), $PENDLE, $IO (io.net), and $ENA (Ethena), and paint the most comprehensive and up-to-date picture of their on-chain activity, key events, growth levels, revenue, ecosystem health, and upcoming development plans for each project. From there, evaluate the factors that could affect the token value in the short and long term. A brief summary
Data as of the end of October 2026 shows a clear differentiation. Pendle is transitioning from a subsidiary Just saw this, and my first reaction was: so digital assets can also be used as a tool to consolidate the US dollar's position 🤔 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated at the Ripple Swell conference that digital assets help reinforce the global dominance of the US dollar, and that over 90% of stablecoins are backed by the US dollar.
I've been in the space for only a year, and I used to easily equate "crypto development" with "breaking away from the dollar." After thinking about it, my understanding is that while technology can be decentralized, the unit of account people use may not necessarily change. My judgment is that these remarks have greater significance for payment and settlement scenarios involving dollar-backed stablecoins, and should not be directly interpreted as benefiting all digital assets.
Logically, if stablecoins can truly open up new global markets, then the US dollar might reach more users through these channels. On the other hand, according to him, issuers often use US Treasury bonds as reserves; if the scale grows, then demand for US Treasuries might also increase. These are the two transmission paths as I understand them. I'm not sure if this is correct, but neither directly implies a rise in coin prices.
What I haven't figured out yet is how much of the new usage comes from real payments versus how much is just on-chain fund circulation. This message makes me want to observe the actual use cases of stablecoins more closely, rather than hastily treating official endorsements of digital assets as a blanket positive for the entire market.Don't just look at "selling" when whales unload, that 100 million stablecoins are the key
Ancient whales have started selling ETH in batches, but don't just focus on the selling pressure. Their cost was $0.31, and now selling at will yields over 700,000 times return, definitely mining gold at the bottom.
The key is that last night they transferred over $100 million in stablecoins simultaneously to exchanges, market makers, and OTC institutions, with unclear purpose. On one hand, they sent ETH to CEX to prepare for selling, on the other hand, they sent 100 million USDT to prepare for buying — this looks less like dumping and running, more like portfolio adjustment.
My judgment: 3,000 ETH entering CEX is real selling pressure, the market may first drop; but 100 million stablecoins represent potential buying power, indicating the old whale wants to sell ETH at high prices and buy back at low prices, fundamentally still optimistic about ETH's future.
So the strategy is to follow the main force's rhythm: if there is a drop next, short-term short first, then buy at the low, high sell low buy has the best cost performance. Don't misread "unloading" as "bearish".
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $SOL
SOL's 24-hour low was 99.17, dropping below 100 then climbing back to 101, and at this critical moment Solflare ran into trouble.
They announced that a staking service provider had a security incident, the validator keys were affected, and this validator is no longer producing rewards. No funds were lost; the delegated SOL remains in users' own staking accounts. A new version will be released later to guide migration to a new validator, and compensation is planned.
I actually think this is more worth noting than losing coins: staking rewards aren't free; if the custodian in the chain fails, you won't get rewards either. This disclosure was relatively quick, but missing a day of rewards is a day of rewards lost.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Robinhood HOOD contract settlement No
On the surface: Q3 revenue hit a record high of $1.42 billion, adjusted EPS $0.60, beating analyst expectations of $0.56
In reality: GAAP diluted EPS was only $0.51, contract threshold requires GAAP strictly above $0.56
Where did the $0.09 difference go?
→ Robinhood's own venture capital fund (RVI) unrealized losses must be included in GAAP earnings, $0.07/share
→ Non-GAAP simply adds this back, so the "adjusted EPS" looks very good
For earnings contract forecasts, the first step is not to look at analyst expectations, but to clearly understand the contract settlement criteria.
1️⃣ The contract states GAAP, so look at GAAP; don’t judge by the "EPS beat" in the news
2️⃣ The few differences between GAAP and Non-GAAP (stock-based compensation, unrealized investment losses, one-time losses) often determine the Yes/No outcome
3️⃣ Record revenue ≠ EPS target met; the income statement and cash flow statement are often two different things 💻Review input: The founder of Stacks stated that quantum security concerns have limited Bitcoin's growth, and related uncertainties may scare off institutions.
I think this risk should be taken seriously, but there is still a lack of evidence to conclude that growth is restricted. A potential bug is that institutions might not enter the market for various reasons, so it cannot be directly attributed to quantum concerns.
If it were me, I would first supplement with institutional feedback to verify whether this is truly a decision bottleneck before discussing the technical approach. Everyone, please help me review: What evidence is needed to distinguish between real entry barriers and verbal concerns?$BTC in the past 5 days has only fluctuated between 79,220-82,060, a range of 3.5%. In the last 13 months, there have only been 11 instances of a narrower 5-day range than this. Many say this is the "calm before the storm," that at 2 AM tomorrow when the Federal Reserve announces, there will be a big breakout. I reviewed the previous 14 policy meetings: 5 times the 5-day range before the meeting was <5%, the average 3-day range after the decision was 5.4%; 9 times before the meeting it was very noisy, with the range after the decision even larger: 6.7% Calm Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +1%, with the first-level pairing scale about $266; based on a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 3%. The first-level volume is very small, so no matter how good the curve looks, it is difficult to execute trades by volume.
The first-level positive basis for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.7%, with the first-level pairing scale about $993; based on a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 10%. Capacity limits are set.
$SOL mark basis is positive, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quotes are inverted. Near-month annualized +29.84%, far-month annualized +0.48%, the near end is more expensive; mark near-far spread +0.01%, near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quote spread -1.1%. Positive mark, negative first-level.Last night BTC was pulled from 80,000 to 81,200, more like a “corrective rebound” rather than a reversal. To put it simply: shorts were squeezed out, sentiment warmed up, but the selling pressure above hasn’t been digested yet.
Why the pull?
· Shorts were squeezed: about $4 billion in bearish positions were forcibly liquidated, closing positions turned into buying, the more it rose, the tighter the squeeze.
· The Treasury’s bond purchases suppressed yields, risk appetite warmed up.
· ETFs had a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, but the single-day inflow was almost entirely supported by BlackRock’s IBIT alone.
Why isn’t it a reversal?
· The chip concentration between 81,000 and 82,500 is too thick; the ETF average cost is about 81,500, and the pull to 81,200 just hit the lower edge of selling pressure.
· The quality of funds is insufficient: ETFs had a combined outflow of $770 million in the previous two days, a single player supporting doesn’t mean institutions have fully returned.
· Derivative structure is poor: adding positions when falling, no chasing when rising; big money reducing longs, retail taking longs.
· Technically, EMA pressure is between 81,000 and 81,700; without volume to firmly hold above 82,000, the space can’t open up.
When will it look like a reversal?
· Daily volume expands and holds firmly above 82,000;
· ETF inflows spread from IBIT to other products;
· Open interest increases when prices rise, and the proportion of large account longs rises.
Until these conditions are met, it’s just a corrective rebound, not a reversal. $BTC has only fluctuated between 79,220 and 82,060 over the past 5 days, with an amplitude of 3.5%. In the past 13 months, there have only been 11 instances of a 5-day period narrower than this.
Many say this is the "calm before the storm," expecting a big explosion right after the Fed announces at 2 AM tomorrow. I reviewed the last 14 rate decisions:
🔇 5 times with amplitude <5% in the 5 days before the meeting, the average amplitude in the 3 days after the decision was 5.4%
🔊 9 times when it was already noisy before the meeting, the amplitude after the decision was even larger: 6.7%
Quiet does not equal buildup. The idea that "the longer the hold, the bigger the explosion" is not supported by data, so don’t leverage up early to bet on a breakout because of this phrase.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT 1-hour chart, 2025/1–2026/10
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $TRUMP is quoted at 1.675, $BOME at 0.000625, $WLD at 0.475 — these three small-cap tokens are collectively trading sideways on the eve of the FOMC decision, which in itself is the most cautionary signal. On days without independent catalysts, their prices are entirely driven by external narratives: $TRUMP has no company, no product, fixed supply, and its price moves solely based on political figures' dynamics and macro sentiment; $BOME turns citation relationships into on-chain points, with a holding structure more complex than pure memes, but daily trading volume just over $3 million, so tens of thousands of dollars can sway the market; $WLD builds the world's only identity network based on iris scanning, with biometric privacy controversies and regulatory ambiguity still unresolved. Their commonality is: no interest rate narrative, only passively following the broader market, yet their volatility far exceeds mainstream coins. The real focus is not today, but the amplification effect after the decision is released. The market generally watches $BTC and $ETH for directional cues but tends to overlook a structural fact: the smaller the coin lacking fundamental anchors, the more its sentiment is leveraged and amplified by macro events. Whether dovish or hawkish does not determine $TRUMP's direction; what decides it is how much attention premium meme traders are willing to pour into a zero cash flow asset in the hours after the decision. $BOME's light chip structure means any direction will be mechanically amplified, while $WLD must simultaneously digest discounts from privacy controversies and regulatory signals. My judgment is: chasing these three before the decision... Compressing the judgment to 5 minutes means results come faster, but it doesn't mean the odds are more favorable. When I look at these types of products, the first question isn't how many times you can guess correctly, but how much you win when you guess right, how much you lose when you guess wrong, and whether there's enough advantage to cover judgment errors.
Polymarket announced that the US version of its app has launched a 5-minute cryptocurrency price rise and fall prediction market, supporting BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. According to a previous Reuters report, the US CFTC is investigating whether it violated the 2022 agreement prohibiting US users.
My judgment is: this seems more like a battle for short-term attention, and cannot be directly counted as positive news for the related cryptocurrencies. Predicting price movements and buying spot assets are not the same thing; if users are just shifting to betting on direction, then what increases is likely the activity of the prediction market, not spot demand. This is my speculation.
For participants, whether it's worth it depends on the conditions. If you can identify mismatches between probability and odds, and limit participation frequency, then there's room to discuss positive expected value. Conversely, fluctuations within five minutes are hard to explain, and frequent participation can easily mistake a single correct guess for skill. I would list regulatory investigations separately as a risk: launching is a product fact, not proof that compliance concerns have been resolved.
This news makes me more willing to observe whether prediction markets will move toward high-frequency trading, rather than judging coin prices based on it. Facing such a five-minute market, do people value win rate more, or the odds that can withstand a few wrong guesses?Damn, the insider whale account rumored online to be Trump Jr.'s son is heavily shorting $BTC. Could it be about to drop?
This wallet had already established large short positions in BTC and $ETH before Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods last October, ultimately profiting $200 million.
Is this wave betting on a war with Iran? Or betting on Trump Jr. losing influence in the midterm elections?
Looking at the technicals, the daily chart is optimistic, short-term bearish, and mid-to-long-term bullish: BTC surged above the EMA50 at 80,600 this morning with strong volume, showing optimism; the 20/50-day SMA (81,800–82,000) is still above, indicating short-term bearishness.
ETH, after clearing selling pressure, has found support in the technical cluster of "realized price + 200-day EMA + large holder cost baseline" between 2310–2328.
ETH price remains below the 20/50-day EMA (2,430/2,453), forming a key cost zone defense with a grinding bottom structure, but the trend has not reversed.
$SOL is barely holding above the 200/100-day EMA support zone at 98–100, with the daily RSI at 34 showing weakness (the weakest since mid-June) and having broken below the 20/50-day EMA (around 106). Volume has shrunk to 50% of the 20-day average, and the 20-day EMA is about to cross below the 50-day EMA forming a death cross, indicating a critical state where the long-term uptrend has just been broken.Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi has a warning that lands awkwardly against the tape: another rate hike would be a mistake, because the bond market has already done the Fed's tightening for it. The market's response was less a debate than a shrug. $BTC held above $80,000, $ETH led the majors higher, and $SOL edged up without drama. When a prominent voice argues that policy is already tight enough, and risk assets rise instead of recoiling, the useful question is not whether the warning is righ如果把这几天当成FOMC前的"假平静"，那么真正被重定价的，可能不是利率本身，而是短线仓位的容错空间。 你有没有发现，横盘时最磨人的不是没行情，是账户曲线像心电图？ 我盯着盘面看了一阵，BTC在79500到80500之间来回，ETH在2300到2340反复抖，表面像无事发生，实际是事件前的定价在收紧。账户809美元、离1000还差约200美元，这种阶段最容易手痒，也最容易被上下扫。 这轮我更愿意从板块强弱去看。BTC横着，是在等FOMC结果落地；ETH弹性更大，说明风险偏好没退干净，但也不敢提前押注；山寨像ZEC这类，更容易被情绪和短线资金拿来做脉冲，可持续性通常要等大饼给方向。也就是说，市场现在交易的不是"降不降"，而是"公布后谁先被重新定价"。 偏多路径是：结果不鹰，BTC稳住区间上沿，ETH补涨，山寨跟着修复，风险偏好回暖。风险是：结果前波动继续压缩，结果后先插针再走，重仓位容易被甩出趋势。我自己会更在意预设止盈止损和仓位轻重，而不是猜方向。 我的判断是，FOMC前这段震荡更像在憋一个短线节奏切换，强弱顺序可能先看BTC定调，再看ETH和山寨跟不跟。别让横盘替你做决定。 你现在更Data as of 08:45: Bitcoin 80,728, up 0.62% in 24 hours; Ethereum 2,347, up 0.93%. The report from the storage side has landed first—revenue of 104.6 trillion KRW (about 78.9 billion USD), operating profit margin 80%, operating profit 83.3 trillion KRW, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 76.7 trillion; HBM4 began to take the lead from Q4, with more than half of the capacity for 2027 to 2028 already locked in by long-term contracts. Whether HBM4 can boost profitability is no longer a question—it can, and the reports for the next two quarters will only look better. What really stands out is the other side: despite the most profitable quarter, semiconductor sector stock prices fell 17.9% in three weeks. The market is not focused on the order book but on where the capital expenditure money is coming from. In the same 24 hours, a social media giant announced $95 billion in financing, a model-focused unicorn submitted an IPO prospectus rumored to raise $100 billion—nearly $200 billion combined, all invested in AI data centers. The market is only so big; money flowing there means less liquidity here. Bitcoin has been hovering around the 80,000 mark for the third day, with volume and sentiment declining. What crypto lacks now is not stories but buyers willing to pay. Here, I want to pour cold water on two types of people simultaneously: those who only focus on financial report numbers shouting that AI will never be enough, and those who call a major crash after the semiconductor sector fell 17.9% in three weeks—both are substituting price for thinking. What you are now doing is toBTC spot ETF funds have been like "two steps forward, one step back" 🎢 over the past two days: from October 19 to 21, there was a continuous net inflow of 1.075 billion, followed by an outflow of 774 million over the next two days. However, the total net inflow for the week is still about 301 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing 566 million. During the same period, BTC briefly fell below 80,000 and the 50-day moving average, currently down 0.37%, with the market still under pressure 😮💨.
I tend to interpret this as a chip rotation rather than a capital withdrawal 🧐. The weekly net inflow is still about 300 million, and net positions have not shown a significant decline, indicating that the underlying buying interest remains; however, short-term fund volatility has clearly increased, making chasing gains or panic selling risky. The core focus going forward is on two points: whether new buying can continue to take over, and whether the 80,000 level can hold. Only sustained net inflows can confirm stabilization ✅; otherwise, spot support will thin out, increasing defensive pressure.
The waterfall drop was taken out last night, and today we continue to watch the 80,000 defense battle: if broken, expect a deeper correction, with resistance above at 84,000–85,000. Strategically, do not chase gains or panic sell, and set stop losses properly ⛔. The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be well managed.Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe proposed cutting the community fund's 8% share per block, arguing that ZCG already has about $125 million that can't be spent. $ZEC rose from about 1234 to about 1302 in one day; I don't see this price increase as directly related to the proposal.
ZCG currently holds about 91,000 ZEC plus about $8.8 million, with pending grants of only about $2.4 million. According to the draft, this 8% would neither go to miners nor enter circulation but be recorded as network reserve NSM, meaning about 144 ZEC per day would no longer flow into the committee's pocket.
Its Q1 expenses this year were only about $1.53 million; the funds are indeed somewhat excessive.
But this is still just a draft on GitHub, with no number, no activation height, no vote, and it wasn't included in the early November NU7 upgrade.
OKX current price is about 1302 (24h high about 1327 / low about 1213).
4H chart shows a rise from about 1213, touching 1327 at dawn before being pushed back near 1300.
Removing a channel where recipients can immediately sell coins is indeed a good thing, but it's still early for it to take effect. I prefer to see this rally as a privacy coin sentiment recovery.
If it holds above 1290 and 4H closes back at 1327, then we can talk; if 4H falls below about 1285, it may return to around 1245.
Do you think cutting the community fund will relieve pressure on ZEC, or will it discourage developers?
$ZEC $BTC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 When I see this message, the first thing that comes to mind is not the coin price, but the distribution channels of the US dollar. In the context of currency competition, US Treasury Secretary Bessent referred to cryptocurrency at the Ripple conference as the next tool to maintain the dominance of the US dollar; he also stated that actions by the SEC and CFTC can fill the gap left by the failure of the Clarity Act and curb banks from stopping services to the crypto industry.
There is a distinction here: supporting crypto as a tool for the US dollar does not equate to supporting all crypto assets. My understanding of the policy focus is to keep the funding channels within the US dollar system, rather than issuing a universal pass for market appreciation.
In my speculation, if regulatory actions can reduce rule uncertainty and bank services become more stable, then frictions for large capital participation may decrease; if new usage mainly revolves around US dollar settlements, then the direct beneficiaries are likely payment and settlement infrastructures. However, if macro liquidity is tight, smoother channels may not necessarily bring incremental funds to risk assets; policy stance and capital inflow remain two different matters.
So my inclination is: this looks more like a signal of the expansion of the US dollar financial network, with greater significance for infrastructure than for stimulating overall market sentiment. I will watch funding costs and not rush to treat statements as market moves. Following this logic, which macro factor is everyone most concerned about now: the US interest rate path or the global US dollar liquidity tightness?Robinhood's Q3 report last night—I first looked at the crypto line, $120 million, down 55% year-over-year.
At first, I thought it was dragged down by the crypto market. But looking further, it doesn't add up: event contracts brought in $173 million the same quarter, already surpassing crypto, and options and stocks are also up, with total revenue hitting a new high.
Breaking down crypto transactions, retail users on the Robinhood App only accounted for $21 billion, down 48% year-over-year; on the institutional side, Bitstamp only dropped 28%. The biggest shrinkage is in retail.
But on its own Robinhood Chain, the mainnet had over 80 billion in DEX transactions in the first quarter, with on-chain fees exceeding $50 million.
From what I see, fewer people are buying coins through the App, while more are betting on events and messing around on-chain—Robinhood is collecting fees from all these. Focusing only on the crypto line and saying it's failing is a bit unfair.
If next quarter's report shows crypto revenue surpassing event contracts again, then I'll admit I was wrong. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Old resistance turning into support cannot be confirmed just by the price touching it briefly. My personal market observation is: the more recent the rebound, the more cautious you should be not to mistake a normal pullback as the start of the next upward move.
Eli emphasized in the discussion about support conversion that you should first see a break below followed by a recovery, or a daily close above the key zone with a successful retest, rather than entering just because the price reaches a certain level. This is his conditional judgment; the catalysts and market conditions for related small-cap coins have not yet been publicly verified, so I only keep this as a methodological reminder and do not package it as a confirmed opportunity.
Back to $BTC, Kraken's public quote is about $80,685, with a 24-hour high around $81,200. I will wait for a breakout above the upper boundary, a close holding above it, and then watch for a retest and support before overturning my current view of not chasing the rally; if it crosses the line but falls back and fails to reclaim, I will continue to treat it as a range-bound market. If the $80,000 support breaks and the rebound fails, then I will withdraw the expectation of recovery.
My overall judgment is that a retest is just a test; only if the support holds can there be reason to upgrade the outlook. The biggest risk is mistaking expected support for actual buying demand, which leads to continuously loosening exit conditions. When judging successful support conversion, do you require a close to hold firmly, or a gradual lifting of the retest lows? This is just my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The US is about to announce the interest rate decision tonight. What impact will it have on Bitcoin?
I think the focus of tonight's decision is not whether to raise rates, but whether the wording will strengthen the expectation of a rate hike in December. The probability of no change this time is over 90%, and a December hike is priced in at over 70%. Volatility will come from expectation differences.
$BTC is now hovering around 79,000, which is a bit precarious:
Short-term support is between 78,500 and 79,500, with a key defense line at 75,500;
On the upside, first watch 81,400, with strong resistance between 82,500 and 85,000.
There is a divergence in capital flows: about $770 million ETF outflows over two days, but weekly net inflows remain, more like a hedge than a full retreat. In terms of liquidations, breaking below 76,566 would liquidate about $1.57 billion in long positions; breaking above 84,036 would liquidate about $1.07 billion in short positions, with downward moves more likely to accelerate.
Simply put: a dovish stance will defend support and may trigger a rebound testing 81,400–82,500; a hawkish stance will first suppress 78,500–79,500, and if that doesn't hold, look to 75,500. Don't guess the direction, watch which side shows volume. There are also PCE data and options expirations coming up; stability tonight doesn't mean the latter half of the week will be quiet. Good morning, brothers! Just woke up, and the moment I opened my eyes and saw this capital flow data, it immediately energized me. Don't be fooled by the few hours' price increase; there are hidden currents in this market. The main players are clearly playing a game of overt distraction while secretly maneuvering behind the scenes!
$BTC is currently around 80.8K. Looking at the contract side, there's a net outflow of 262 million in 1 hour and 164 million in 24 hours. Leverage funds are retreating frantically. Meanwhile, on the spot market, there's a quiet net inflow of 144 million in 24 hours! What does this mean? Contracts are dumping to kill long positions, while spot buyers quietly pick up the bloodied chips below. The main players are playing this hand very slyly.
Next, look at $ETH at 2345. Contracts have a net inflow of 164 million in 24 hours, and the spot market also has a large net inflow of 92.06 million in 24 hours. This data is very interesting, indicating that big money is truly buying the dip, buying more as prices fall. The spot market has strong support, retail investors are cutting losses, and institutions are picking up bargains.
Finally, $SOL at 101.2, spot market net inflow of 23.5 million in 24 hours, and contracts also show net inflows from 4 to 12 hours. It’s stuck stubbornly at the 100 mark, with funds fiercely battling here. The long-short game is extremely intense.
To summarize, short-term funds are panicking and fleeing in the morning session, but big money is quietly building positions on the spot side. Chasing shorts now will likely get trapped, and chasing longs is easily shaken out by contracts. I suggest watching more and acting less. Wait until the contract leverage is cleaned out before boarding the trend. Absolutely do not enter positions at this level.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Robinhood's earnings report is worth a look for the crypto community:
Q3 total revenue rose 12% year-over-year, but crypto trading revenue fell 55%. Options and prediction markets are growing, while crypto trading business remains under pressure.
My view: Record total revenue does not mean a full recovery for the crypto sector. Going forward, we need to watch if trading volume and fee income can improve together.
One platform does not represent the entire market, and no matter how hot partnership news is, we still need to see if the real business is picking up.
#BTC#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ For the crypto market, the impact of this earnings report is not a "positive," but a "drain." South Korean AI chip capital expenditures compete with crypto for the same pool of risk capital, and Bitcoin miners are also shifting computing power to AI hosting because contract revenue is more stable than mining.Is the rebound an illusion? BTC, ETH, and SOL are stuck on the brink of life and death
When "rebound" and "selling pressure" appear simultaneously, you need to see who is bluffing
08:30 Market extremely divided: BTC at 80,763, ETH 2,345, SOL 101, slight decline with news of "rising over 1%" showing a time lag, the rebound may be near its end. Pre-IPO ANTHROPICUSDT (189.55) diverts risk appetite.
$BTC: 81,000 is not a breakthrough but a stress test. 874,000 coins cost accumulated in the 81,000-82,500 range, rebound immediately meets selling pressure, 81,300 support turns into resistance. ETF net inflow is solely supported by BlackRock, with 770 million outflow in the past two days, spot demand not recovered, only shorts temporarily paused.
$ETH: ETF outflow approaching record. Current price stands on EMA120 (around 2333) as the last line of defense. Funding rate plummeted 56%, bulls exiting. If it breaks below 2300, no structural support below, correction will accelerate.
$SOL: Struggling at 101. On-chain stock addresses increased fivefold, but 82% of airdrop recipients selling has not converted into demand. 482,000 SOL transferred to exchanges in the past three days, may fall toward 80 dollars.
Summary: BTC testing resistance, ETH supported by moving average, SOL falling despite positive factors. Rebound is questionable. Watch closely 81,000 (BTC), 2,330 (ETH), 100 (SOL); losing these means the start of a correction.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood released its Q3 earnings after the market close tonight. Revenue growth is basically expected to continue, but the quality of that growth is questionable.
Q2 revenue increased 32% year-over-year, with a large portion of the growth coming from a rebound in crypto trading. This quarter, the platform aggressively launched new coins to capture the retail market, but the overall crypto market was flat in Q3, retail trading enthusiasm cooled, and the actual performance of crypto commission income is the key focus of the earnings report.
Additionally, Q2 saw a record high in net client deposits, essentially driven by the combined momentum of US stocks and crypto markets. Robinhood's user base is mainly retail investors; when the market is hot, trading is active, but when the market cools, revenue immediately comes under pressure. The growth model is highly dependent on market conditions.US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $110 million on Monday, after about $770 million left in the previous two trading days. This time, all the incoming money was bought by BlackRock IBIT alone, while the other 11 ETFs didn't move a cent.
Since October, there has still been a net outflow of about $200 million. The total ETF assets are approximately $102.8 billion, accounting for 6.41% of Bitcoin's market cap.
Since only one is buying, I don't consider it a capital return. The ETFs with the largest outflows this month, FBTC and ARKB, have not turned around yet.
$BTC surged to 81298 overnight, just hitting the ETF holding average price line at 81300 calculated by someone, then it pulled back, now around 80790.
The FOMC decision will be released early tomorrow Beijing time. Today during the day, it will likely remain range-bound. Don't add leverage too early.
Short-term support zone is between 80450 and 80600; reduce positions if it breaks below 80450.
The first resistance above is 81300; if it holds above that, then look at 81800.
Stop loss is set below 80200, keep position size small as usual, and don't chase before the decision comes out. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Has SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report arrived, and can HBM4 boost profits?
Brothers, SK Hynix's Q3 results are out. Revenue hit 104.6 trillion KRW, operating profit 83.3 trillion KRW, both crushing expectations. DRAM average prices rose over 20% quarter-on-quarter, NAND mid-20% increase, purely price-driven.
But net profit was a big shock: 39.5 trillion KRW vs. expected 60.7 trillion KRW, a shortfall of a full 21 trillion KRW. To translate: operating profit was huge, but net profit was eaten up by taxes, exchange rates, one-time items, and accounting treatment of shareholder returns.
Shareholder returns were brutal. A full-year 100 trillion KRW, with 30 trillion in cash dividends + 60 trillion in buybacks and cancellations. Q3 dividend per share was 20,000 KRW, including a special dividend of 10,000 KRW from Kioxia investment gains. This scale is 7 times last year’s, competing with Samsung for the title of "Korea's largest return."
Call highlights: the company directly said storage shortages will continue until 2030, quarterly profits have not peaked, and the upward trend will not reverse before 2027. DRAM demand is expected to grow mid-20% next year, NAND in the high double digits. Translated: don’t panic, price hikes are not over yet.
Has AI trading returned? Pre-market ADR only rose about 3%. Explosive earnings but mild stock price movement indicates the market is waiting for tonight’s Fed and Microsoft and Google earnings reports. Money hasn’t fled, but it’s not going crazy either. First, about the position: I've been watching empty-handed these past two days, not daring to get back in.
Bitcoin is now just above 80,000, and the big drop from yesterday has mostly recovered today. The 80,000 line has been contested back and forth several times.
The funding side is interesting: the main liquidations these days are from short-sellers; among longs and shorts, shorts actually make up the majority—everyone is waiting for it to drop, but every time it dips, it gets pushed back up. It's not that I don't dare to chase, the whole market is waiting for a drop.
Here's the variable: when the market is overwhelmingly bearish, there's often one last kick downward, so don't turn your short positions into a belief.
Keep your position light, don't go all-in around 80,000. This rebound—would you dare to add to your position? #Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? BTC is currently at 80,800, shorts have just been squeezed out by 528 million, but Binance perpetual sell orders are thick at 4.5 million — shorts are retreating, money is selling. At 76,566, there are 1.57 billion long orders waiting to be taken down, and at 84,036, there are 1.07 billion short orders. On the eve of the FOMC, neither bulls nor bears want to make the first move. $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 【Google is investing $200 billion a year in AI, how profitable does the earnings report need to be to satisfy shareholders?】
The market is waiting for $GOOGL. This earnings report is not just about revenue beating expectations; it's about whether AI can actually make money. Wall Street expects Q3 revenue to be about $127.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 25%; Google Cloud revenue is expected to be close to $29.2 billion, compared to about $15.1 billion in the same period last year. Last quarter, cloud business surged 82%, a truly impressive growth.
Google's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has already been raised to $195 billion to $205 billion. With more AI chips and data centers being built, cloud business must keep winning contracts, and search ads must maintain cash flow. AI search bringing more queries is good, but if user habits change and ad display and monetization efficiency don't keep up, the core business will also face pressure.
Two key points to watch: whether search ads can continue to grow, and whether the high growth rate of cloud business can translate into profits and cash flow. Everyone can tell the AI story, now it's Google's turn to prove that this nearly $200 billion investment isn't just for a bunch of impressive user data.
The earnings report will be released after the US market closes on October 28. The market expects about a 6% volatility range; better-than-expected results do not necessarily mean the stock price will rise.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ One scenario is high-level consolidation. Below 80,000, there is still a deep cost band from 49,000 to 54,000 USD acting as a safety cushion. Nearly 70% of the entire network's chips are still profitable, and exchange reserves are at historically low levels, compressing the amount of chips available for sale. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz publicly expressed optimism about the 80,000 USD support, believing there is potential to challenge 100,000 USD by the end of the year.
The other scenario is a buying gap. The largest corporate buyers have paused accumulation, ETF monthly net outflows continue, and the risk-free interest rate is approaching 3%, with these three forces simultaneously slowing down. If macro tightening expectations further escalate, the 75,000 to 78,000 USD range will be the next real test. The next big money will come from somewhere, and 80,000 USD will move accordingly. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC