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#Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注 Others focus on small reactors only for powering AI computing, but Oklo follows a dual narrative: on one side, building the Aurora fast reactor to provide stable baseload power for computing centers; on the other, using reactors to produce medical isotopes like Lu-177 for cancer treatment.
Aurora has already entered the main steel structure construction phase, received DOE safety document approval, and aims to be operational by 2027-2028; the Groves test reactor has successfully reached criticality, validating the rapid deployment model. It is not just a power generation project but an advanced nuclear testbed with two parallel cash flows: "computing power energy + medical isotopes."
The biggest challenge in the advanced micro-reactor field has never been the reactor itself, but the lengthy NRC approval process, cost control, and replicability. There are still many hurdles before true commercial grid connection, with extended timelines and approval delays as potential risks.
This is an experiment betting on nuclear energy simultaneously for AI computing power and life-saving medical applications.In Citadel Securities' data from the end of October, two numbers placed together stand out. Over the past six months, the actual market price paid for Tokens dropped by about 50%, and the average price for frontier models fell by 62%. At the same time, the rental price for B200 GPUs increased by 27.5%. The things sold are getting cheaper, while the cost of producing them is getting more expensive. According to Citadel's calculations, all else being equal, model companies need to increase their hourly Token output to 2.55 times the original amount to maintain the same gross margin. I did a quick calculation myself: 1.275 ÷ 0.5 ≈ 2.55. This matches the previous two numbers exactly. This is like the worst-case scenario for manufacturing bosses: the cost of factories and equipment keeps rising, but the factory price keeps falling. And these American companies are still borrowing money to buy GPUs, build data centers, and sign long-term power contracts. Meanwhile, there are still people pushing prices down. On OpenRouter, the proportion of Tokens from Chinese models was 6% to 13% in February this year, rising to 57% to 67% in September. They don't need to win in every capability. For tasks like customer service, translation, and content generation, as long as the performance is adequate and the price drops by 60% to 90%, companies will be motivated to switch. The top-ranked solution can't solve this problem; Token prices have already been driven down first. Previously, the market assumed that the more Tokens used, the more model companies earned, so they dared to give high valuations to GPUs, cloud, and data centers. Now, call volumes are still rising, but the money users pay has notFirst, consider the worst-case scenario: if the oracle price continues to fall, my concern is the pressure on loan positions. The snapshot on November 6 shows that, assuming debt and collateral remain unchanged, a 10% further drop in the oracle price would affect 1,070 positions, totaling 8.84 million USDC; reports indicate that the risk exposure is on cbXRP, not affecting native $XRP.
I prefer to view this as a localized lending risk rather than a comprehensive bearish signal for the native coin. ⚠️ Changes in oracle prices affect the safety margin of positions; the snapshot fixes debt and collateral and cannot represent the results after position adjustments; cbXRP and native assets should not be conflated, or else localized pressure might be misread as a systemic crisis. This 8.84 million USDC is not a realized loss.
My risk control habit is to first write down the maximum loss I can tolerate, then verify whether the risk comes from price, collateral, or lending mechanisms. Next, I will monitor actual position changes and not treat stress scenarios as final outcomes. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？
For Rocket Lab's upcoming earnings report, what I most want to hear is a verifiable, itemized progress schedule for Neutron.
The company will release its Q3 2026 results after market close on November 9 (US time), with a conference call scheduled for 6:00 AM Beijing time on November 10.
First, an important update: the company announced on October 14 that the Neutron maiden flight is now expected to be postponed to 2027. This earnings report needs to be evaluated based on the updated timeline.
My earnings observation checklist has three items:
① After the delay, what key tests remain?
I will look to see if management explains the completion status of engine tests, structural tests, and full rocket integration, as well as the upcoming milestones. Entering the launch pad, completing tests, and achieving successful orbit are different stages and should not be conflated.
② Can the existing business continue to deliver revenue?
The company previously guided Q3 revenue between $250 million and $265 million, with a GAAP gross margin guidance of 29% to 31%. These are the company's expectations, not the actual results for the quarter.
③ What is the financial cost of waiting for the first flight?
I will analyze R&D expenses, capital expenditures, and cash burn to assess the impact of the delay on funding needs; I will also pay attention to financing arrangements and changes in equity.
My judgment is: Neutron's potential needs to be realized step-by-step through engineering milestones. After the delay, if key tests continue to be completed, the basis for assessing project progress will be more solid.Using the selling pressure of $WLD to infer the bottom timing of $ETH's pullback!
Currently, WLD is around 0.34, and the downtrend continues. At the same time, 12.5 million WLD selling pressure bullets are already loaded.
If the market wants to digest the 12.5 million selling pressure, it will definitely take 1-2 weeks, at least one week.
If WLD and ETH reach the pullback bottom simultaneously, then during the week WLD digests ETH's selling pressure, ETH will not rally, but a mid-way rebound is not ruled out.
This implies that WLD's current wave is an early sell-off, leading BTC and ETH by one step to probe down to the pullback bottom ahead of time.
Conversely, if ETH and BTC reach the pullback bottom, then WLD might also take the lead to rally first, sounding the first shot for mainstream coin capital rotation!!!
#ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化 There is an account on Hyperliquid that has cumulatively earned 222 million USD, currently holding a position worth 125.9 million USD, with 115.8 million USD in short positions.
First, look at the structure. The short positions are not randomly placed: $ETH 26.16 million, $BTC 19.79 million, $HYPE 15.23 million, $SOL 12.72 million. These four are the most liquid and deepest markets. This is not a directional bet but more like a market maker hedging their spot and options exposure.
Next, look at the profit and loss distribution. They earned 18.83 million in 30 days, with only 3.46 million unrealized. The vast majority of the money has been cashed out; the remaining floating profit and loss is insignificant to them. An account truly betting on direction would have large unrealized P&L; here, it’s the opposite.
Don’t interpret this data as "institutional bearishness." Market makers’ shorts and retail shorts are fundamentally different. Retail shorts bet on price drops, while market makers short to sell the buy orders they receive, profiting from spreads and funding fees, not from price declines.
Another signal worth noting: it dares to keep such large shorts simultaneously in $ETH, $BTC, $HYPE, and $SOL, indicating it judges these four markets have enough depth for it to close positions anytime. Conversely, if the depth in these assets thins, its cost to close positions will rise, and then its actions will start to influence the market itself.
It is quietly making money now. Quietness often conveys more information than taking a stance.I tried copy trading, following others because their historical profit curves looked good.
At first, I made two profitable trades and thought I had found a shortcut.
Later I realized that the signal providers only show the profitable trades and quietly offset the losses.
Copy trading also has delays; by the time they enter, the price has already moved, so I end up buying at a higher price.
The position sizes are different too; they test with small amounts, but I follow with the same proportion, and when volatility hits, I panic.
$BTC they dare to hold, but I might not be able to withstand it; the capital difference is too big.
$ETH they set wide stop losses, but I get stopped out within a few days.
$DOGE, with such high volatility, copy trading feels more like gambling on luck.
The platform also takes a cut; when you profit, they take a share, but when you lose, it's all on you.
Signal providers change strategies faster than flipping a page; yesterday they traded trends, today short-term.
I followed for half a month, paid a lot in fees, but my account barely moved.
Eventually, I stopped copying and set my own rules, so losses are clear and understood.
When you see others posting profits, first think about why they post; if they were really making money, why share signals?
Copy trading suits people without time, but the premise is that the signal providers are reliable, which is hard to judge.
Now I only try with very small positions; losses are tuition fees.
Don't treat copy trading as a lifesaver; it's safer to manage your own money. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元
#美军再度打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡重开仍存分歧 $HOOD
Revenue hits a new high, so why hasn't Robinhood's earnings per share kept pace?
Robinhood's Q3 revenue grew 12% year-over-year, but diluted earnings per share fell 16% year-over-year. The divergence between revenue expansion and shareholder returns suggests that cost and profit structures deserve closer scrutiny.
New business can broaden revenue sources but may initially increase R&D, marketing, and operating expenses. Growth in net client inflows is a good foundation, but whether profitability per client can improve remains to be seen.
If expenses decline and cash earnings per share improve after new products mature, the investments can be justified; however, if revenue continues to grow but profits lag long-term, the valuation discount for scale expansion should not be overlooked. #ModernaQ3 turns profitable, raises full-year revenue growth forecast
The leader has something to say
I came across this about Moderna, first looking at where the profit came from: Q3 revenue was $1.313 billion, up 29% year-over-year, GAAP net profit was $162 million, compared to a loss of $200 million in the same period last year, turning profitable; the full-year revenue growth guidance was raised from a maximum of 10% to 15%–25%. But the community summed it up in one sentence: the better-than-expected results rely on cutting R&D and operating expenses to save profits, not because vaccine demand has truly returned.
My interpretation is: this contrasts with a bunch of AI chain earnings reports. AAOI and IREN had revenue growth but poor cash flow and were hit, Moderna cut costs to generate profit, but the stock price didn’t move. In an environment of a surprise weak nonfarm payroll and a 79% chance of a rate hike, the market isn’t buying the "saving money" story that much—without demand-side growth, profits are just a one-time release. For the crypto space, this kind of pharmaceutical stock is almost unrelated to BTC, more a side indicator of risk appetite: even defensive sectors are being re-evaluated.
BTC current price is about 74,800, sideways on Saturday. My take: 75,000 remains resistance, downside to 73,000; weekend news is scattered, I won’t adjust positions based on a single earnings report. Waiting for Monday’s US stock market open and ETF net flow data to decide next week’s direction.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC is tugging back and forth around 76,000, with ETFs having already run nearly 1.3 billion this month, and BlackRock withdrawing 400 million in one day on Friday. This sideways movement is a breather after leverage liquidation, not a return of institutions.
$ETH is wobbling near 2,250, with Ethereum ETFs seeing net outflows for two consecutive days, and the market showing no decent resistance.
$ZEC is holding strong; the NU7 upgrade cut block time to 25 seconds, price is supported above 1,300, but the gain shrank from six percent in the morning to less than one percent. The solo rally story is also starting to be preempted by others.
In the A-shares market today, a hundred stocks hit the daily limit up, AI comic series Jiecheng and Guomai surged 20CM in batches, photovoltaic Yongzhen continued to lead with four consecutive limit-ups, Minfa Aluminum with five boards, agricultural new sectors and Wanxiang Denong quietly took over, and broad-based ETFs released a massive 129.5 billion, with bottom-fishing funds moving through major channels.
US markets: Nasdaq rose 1.09%, Philadelphia Semiconductor surged 4.2%, AMD soared over 11%, chip stocks raced to recover, while the Dow was pressed down by non-farm payrolls, falling 0.46%.
On the Meme side, RELAY surged 95 times in one day, GM also multiplied seven to eight times, completely a different world from mainstream coins.
Money is skimming back and forth between ETF outflows and meme coin frenzy, with no side daring to bet heavily. In October, the US stock account lost 960,000; in September, it was only 500,000 short of breaking even; in November, losses narrowed to 50,000 — these numbers themselves are not surprising. What is surprising is that they reveal a truth collectively underestimated by the market: traditional anchors like earnings reports, valuations, and capital expenditures have collectively failed. 📉 The most glaring scene is: selling out before the semiconductor sector collapsed, otherwise the account would have been halved. This is not a story of luck, but a microcosm of the current market structure — earnings beating expectations leads to big drops, and extremely beating expectations leads to even bigger drops; forward P/E ratios that are too high fall, and those too low fall even harder; capital expenditures increasing cause crashes, and decreasing also cause crashes; not doing AI causes crashes, doing AI also causes crashes. A set of logic is punished on both sides, indicating that pricing power has shifted from fundamentals to sentiment and discourse power. High liquidity assets like $BTC and $ETH have recently been repeatedly pulled by a single macro statement, essentially the same mechanism replicating across markets. The real signal is hidden in "30 trillion USD market value evaporated by one person’s one sentence." A sentence from Trump, Musk, or Jensen Huang can instantly change direction. This is not a black box, but the market’s sensitivity to information sources has surpassed its sensitivity to cash flow. When noise pricing power exceeds earnings report pricing power, the “no pattern” felt by retail investors is actually a changed pattern: from researching companies to researching who is speaking and who is forced to trade. High beta targets like $SOL and $HYPE have amplified volatility in this environment, which is an extension of the same logic. The public’s misjudgment is to treat this disorder as short-term sentiment, waiting for “ #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Goldman Sachs lowers gold price forecast? That familiar feeling is back 😂
Whenever this kind of news comes out, it's actually worth paying more attention to; gold might be about to have an opportunity.
Goldman Sachs is basically recognized in the industry as a contrarian indicator. A few months ago, it kept raising the $XAU target, but the market kept going down. Now it directly cuts the gold price forecast. Usually, it only adjusts expectations to align with the current price near the end of a trend.
By the time they massively lower targets, a lot of bearish sentiment has already been fully released. Of course, this signal is worth watching. The Fed's hawkish narrative has been repeatedly priced in by the market. If expectations ease a bit later, the space for gold to rebound could open up quickly.
Gold's volatility also transmits to $BTC; the two have always been linked as safe havens. If you want to watch the rhythm of the linkage between precious metals and crypto, you can come to the homepage research club.ETH at $2247, what are you still waiting for?
ETF outflows of $365 million in five days, down 13% in 30 days, down 35% in a year—everyone is cursing "ETH is done." But today, on-chain transaction volume surged 54%, fees dropped from 35 cents to 3.5 cents, and 36% of ETH is locked in staking. Is this the calm before the storm, or are the whales sharpening their knives at the 200-day moving average?
Let's look at the surface: bearish pressure is heavy, but the price is no longer falling.
In the past 30 days, ETH dropped from 2500 to 2247, down 13%. ETF net outflows totaled $365 million over five consecutive days, Citi verbally targets 3028 but is watching cautiously. The fear and greed index is oscillating between fear and greed.
First point: ETFs are selling, but on-chain usage is growing.
On one side: ETF outflows of $365 million in five days, institutions redeeming.
On the other side: Mainnet daily transaction volume surged 54% year-over-year, reaching 2.17 million transactions. Median fees dropped from 35 cents to 3.5 cents—a 90% decrease. Stablecoin transfer volume increased significantly. L2 activity continues to grow.
ETF outflows reflect short-term sentiment; on-chain usage reflects long-term value.
Second point: 36% of ETH is locked up, and you're still panicking?
Do you know how much ETH is staked now? 36% of the supply is locked in the beacon chain.
Circulating supply is decreasing.
Staking yields are 2.8%-3.3%, institutions are continuously allocating through Staking ETFs.
BitMine's corporate treasury is approaching a 5% supply target and is still buying.
The amount of ETH available for sale in the market is shrinking, while the number of users is increasing.
Fees dropped 90%, users surged 54%—this sacrifices the short-term deflation narrative for long-term adoption. Ethereum is making a choice: face (deflation) or substance (adoption). It chose substance.
Third point: The 200-day moving average, ETH's lifeline.
50-day moving average: 2490-2500—pressuring the price, short-term weakness.
200-day moving average: 2155-2160—supporting the price, not broken mid-to-long term.
RSI 39-40, neutral to slightly weak, but no deep oversold. MACD flattens in negative territory. Bollinger Bands narrowing.
Volatility is compressing, direction choice is imminent.
Support: 2200-2210 → 2170-2180 → 2155-2160 (200-day moving average, iron bottom)
Resistance: 2250-2260 → 2300-2320 → 2350-2400
Breaking below 2160 accelerates decline to 2100. Holding above 2300 confirms rebound.
Bull vs. bear showdown, judge for yourself:
On one side:
On-chain transaction volume +54%, real adoption is exploding.
36% of supply staked and locked, circulating supply tightening.
Strong support at 200-day moving average 2155-2160, mid-to-long term trend intact.
Citi raises 12-month target to 3028.
Corporate treasuries continue accumulating.
On the other side:
ETF net outflows of $365 million over five consecutive days.
Federal Reserve rates at 3.75%-4.00%, high probability of a rate hike in December.
30-day drop of 13%, one-year drop of 35%, trend is weak.
Net supply increase of 0.7%, deflation narrative weakened.
Glamsterdam upgrade test delayed, no short-term catalyst.
Key level 2247, only $87 above the lifeline at 2160.
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Hold 2220-2230 for volume rebound, light long positions targeting 2250-2280, stop loss at 2200. If breaking below 2210, light short positions targeting 2170-2150, stop loss at 2240. Range-bound, avoid heavy positions, wait for a breakout above 2250 or breakdown below 2200 to follow.
Swing traders:
2155-2160 is the 200-day moving average, hold with bullish divergence and volume, accumulate in batches, target 2350-2450, stop loss at 2100. If volume breaks below 2160 effectively, wait or light short positions targeting 2000. Watch for ETF flow reversal—continuous net inflows plus dovish rate shifts are true buy signals.
Long-term believers:
Dollar-cost average below 2200, add another layer if breaking below 2160. ETH dropped from 4800 to 2247, down 53%, but on-chain usage is 54% stronger than the last bull market. Target 3000-4000 by 2027, betting on L2 ecosystem explosion + positive staking lock-up cycle + ETF inflows. But remember—if it breaks below 2100, step aside and observe, don’t fight the trend.
ETH now is like ETH at the end of 2022—
99% thought "post-merge is over," but it went from 880 to 4000.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 🚨Is FIL's 40TB really a commercialization turning point?
A recent piece of data made me refocus on Filecoin: community news states that Warm Storage surpassed 40TB on November 2. Previously, it took 56 days to grow from 20TB to 30TB, but the next 10TB increase took only 9 days, about 6.2 times faster than before. However, I have yet to find independently verifiable official historical snapshots, so I cannot treat these numbers as audited facts.
What’s noteworthy is the product mechanism. Official information shows that Warm Storage verifies data possession through PDP, uses Filecoin Pay for on-chain billing, and supports optional fast reads. The base price is 2.5 USDFC per TiB per month, with a minimum of two copies stored. This means Filecoin is trying to turn storage capacity into a continuous charging service.
But capacity growth does not equal revenue growth. Bitquery’s recent research estimates that as of the end of August, Warm Storage’s cumulative actual payments were about $1,676, indicating the scale is still very early. The flow of funds in payment contracts does not equal real consumption either.
Going forward, I will focus on four indicators: independent paying customers, actual monthly revenue, renewal retention, and the proportion of paid storage. If these improve simultaneously, FIL will have a more solid long-term logic. If it’s just a small base sprint, the hype may fade quickly.
What are you more looking forward to next: 100TB, or seeing real revenue double first?
#FIL #Filecoin Not investment advice US crude oil (WTI) $CL recent fundamental analysis shows a clear characteristic: geopolitical risks support oil prices, but global supply and demand are shifting back to a loose balance, with upward pressure on prices gradually emerging.
1. Supply side: The Middle East situation remains the biggest uncertainty. The Iran war previously disrupted crude oil exports, but recently Middle East crude oil transportation has gradually recovered, easing the global supply tightness.
2. Demand side: High oil prices are suppressing some consumption demand, and uncertainties in US and global economic growth are also weighing on crude oil demand expectations.
3. Inventory: US crude oil inventories have recently declined, but gasoline inventories have significantly increased, indicating weak end-product fuel demand.
4. OPEC+: In early November, major oil-producing countries decided to maintain the December production target unchanged, with considerable uncertainty remaining over production policies in 2027.
Comprehensive judgment: The current crude oil market is gradually transitioning from supply shortage to supply-demand rebalancing. In the short term, geopolitical situations may still trigger sharp price fluctuations, but with Middle East supply recovery and slowing demand growth, oil prices face certain fundamental pressures. Going forward, focus on the Iran situation, US inventory data, and OPEC+ policy changes. $CL
Core view: Short-term focus on geopolitical risks; medium-term focus on downward pressure from supply recovery and weak demand. #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 #沙特管道修复预期压低油价 【BTC Approaching $77,000, Short Liquidation Zone Awaits a Bullish Candle】
Currently, $BTC is fluctuating around $76,000, with the short liquidation zone above $77,000 worth watching. According to the latest liquidation heatmap, around $76,338 is a significant cluster of short liquidations, with a single zone model estimating about $95.8 million. If the price continues upward, shorts will be forced to buy back to close positions, potentially creating continuous buying pressure and amplifying the rebound.
At present, the total open interest for BTC contracts across the market is about $30.1 billion. In the past 24 hours, BTC contract liquidations amounted to approximately $52.7 million, with longs accounting for 77%. The previous decline has already cleared out a batch of long leverage, and the funding rate remains close to neutral, indicating no obvious long crowding in the market for now.
In the short term, it is worth paying attention to whether $77,000 can be effectively broken. Once it holds above this level, short covering could become an additional driver for the rise; if it continues to oscillate between $75,000 and $77,000, the liquidation zone will remain just a potential liquidity target. A break below $75,000 could lead to a new round of long liquidations below. I just saw the recovery in the evening, but by the close of the hour at night, it fell back below 76000. I'm still watching and not treating the rebound as a reversal.
On the previous trading day, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $411.9 million, so the capital side didn't provide support; the volume of the pullback at 17:00 was also clearly greater than the previous rebound volume.
But 75700 hasn't been broken yet, so no rush to short. Only if the volume expands to reclaim 76400 and hold it will I reassess as bullish; if it breaks below 75700 and the rebound fails, then it will be considered a shift from recovery to weakness.
$BTC #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Bit Emperor Migo.
First, a signal: The US AI and tech sectors started a full rebound on Friday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising about 4%, recovering part of Thursday's 12% plunge. Leading the way are the three storage giants: Micron up about 5.1% to $690, SanDisk up about 3.6% to $835, and Hynix up about 2.8%—on Thursday, Micron fell 17.5%, SanDisk fell 22.3%, so Friday's move is an oversold rebound.
The bullish logic is simple: AI servers' demand for memory remains unchanged; by 2027, storage capacity will only increase about 22%, while demand will grow about 26%, maintaining a supply shortage. Analysts still see more than double upside potential in the target prices for these three companies.
The approach is one sentence: don't chase highs, don't go all in at once, buy in batches at the bottom. Buy in batches when opportunities arise from declines, don't envy the rise, save bullets for the next wave.
What do you think, is this storage rebound a real turnaround or just a bounce after overselling?
$SNDK $MU $BTC $ARB
Arbitrum's competition is no longer limited to other Ethereum Layer-2 networks. Its developer infrastructure, including Stylus, allows applications to explore languages beyond Solidity. That flexibility could broaden its development base, but the bigger test remains economic: can ecosystem growth translate into durable demand for blockspace and meaningful value for the ARB token? #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元
The market is once again flooded with panic headlines like "institutions are fleeing."
But looking deeper, this round of outflows is neither a retail stampede nor a collapse of long-term faith:
Most of it is basis arbitrage liquidation from products like IBIT—the spot-futures price spread has narrowed, quantitative funds are mechanically exiting positions, not "bearish on Bitcoin itself."
Contrary to consensus:
ETF net outflow ≠ end of the bull market; rather, it’s "slow money washing out fast money."
What really matters isn’t single-day redemptions, but three signals:
1. Whether on-chain active addresses and stablecoin net inflows continue to shrink
2. Whether futures funding rates have completely cooled off
3. When the Fed will ease its rate hike expectations
My judgment:
Short-term liquidity is suppressed by macro interest rates; BTC is still grinding in the bottom range;
But the long-term bullish logic remains intact; ETFs are just temporarily cooling off, not permanently exiting.
Operationally, don’t try to catch the bottom:
• Spot: place orders in batches, don’t go all in at once
• Futures: reduce frequency, use stop-losses, don’t follow emotional trades
• Grid: keep running the core position, profit from volatility without betting on direction
• Position: keep enough USDT, add more when ETFs turn positive inflow
While others see outflow panic, I see "chip exchange."MEXC responded: Operations are normal, assets are safe
Yesterday, FinCEN ordered to kick MEXC out of the U.S. financial system. This morning at 08:02, MEXC replied on X: aware of the order, currently reviewing it with the legal and compliance team; operations are normal, user assets are safe; will engage in constructive communication with FinCEN and regulators, and has initiated an independent review of anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance.
Co-founder Vugar Usi also issued the same statement, adding: this order only restricts certain fund transfers between MEXC and U.S. financial institutions, not a complete ban.
However, the response did not address FinCEN's allegations of $16 billion in illicit funds and transactions with Garantex, not a word mentioned. The 30-day countdown for the ban has not started, the Federal Register has not published it, and it will not take effect until at least December.
There are already chain reactions: Plasma One's app has already prompted a suspension of deposits from MEXC, but currently this is the only source and has not been confirmed.
A statement has been made, but the accounts have not yet been settled. Shrinkage is not entirely due to withdrawals
$529,500 is the net outflow of the XRP ETF in a single week reported; spot price 1.1711, the fund asset shrinkage also mixes with coin price changes, so it cannot be fully counted as withdrawals.
Let me break down the accounts first.
Net asset loss and redemptions are recorded separately.
$XRP
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 【US AI Infrastructure Faces Political Turning Point, Low-Cost Expansion Era of Computing Power Industry Is Transforming】
The recent decline in US AI computing power stocks is driven by political pushback against the low-cost expansion model of data centers. In the past, data centers reduced construction costs through local tax incentives, power grid expansion, and water resource subsidies. However, as residents grow increasingly dissatisfied with rising electricity prices, resource consumption, and public subsidies for enterprises, approvals and cost constraints are tightening. Texas is a typical example, where even Republican Governor Abbott previously demanded projects bear the costs of power infrastructure.
For the computing power industry, the real pressure is not just temporary construction halts but longer construction cycles, rising electricity and water costs, and reduced tax incentives. Projects that previously relied on low-cost financing and continuous expansion will need to recalculate their future investment returns. Once projects are delayed and revenue realization lags behind financing expenditures, financial pressure will quickly escalate.
Recently, heavy-asset computing power companies like Hut 8 (HUT), Cipher Digital (CIFR), and CoreWeave ($CRWV) have been impacted, and power and cooling suppliers such as GE Vernova and Vertiv have also experienced significant fluctuations.
The US will not abandon AI competition, but data centers can no longer indefinitely shift infrastructure costs onto society. AI demand remains strong; the real question is whether computing power investments can cover the increasingly high construction, operation, and financing costs.
#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 I never quite understood: a platform lowers its fees, income drops by a quarter, yet the money used to buy back tokens actually increases.
Derive does exactly that. The commission rate was reduced from 1.71 basis points to 1.57, making October the cheapest month this year, with annualized revenue dropping from 8.56 million to 6.43 million. But at the same time, it raised the buyback ratio from 35% to 50%, which means the buyback amount went from 3 million to 3.22 million, an increase of 7%.
Less income from one hand, more distribution from the other, betting that lower fees will attract users. But at this fee level, only about 1% of the market cap is bought back annually, so the $DRV benefit isn’t as big as imagined.Complaints about SanDisk on the square have clearly increased, so let's lay out the facts first:
SNDK dropped 22.3% on Thursday, closing at $806, then rebounded on Friday to close at $835 (pre-market up 10%, intraday surged past 912 but fell back). It has fallen about 27% over the week, down about 65% from the June high — but still up about 2.5 times year-to-date.
The split lies in this: the fundamentals haven't deteriorated. The Q3 earnings report at the end of October showed revenue of $11 billion, beating expectations, and the CEO said capacity is sold out through the end of this decade. What’s being punished is expectations: after the midterm elections, with Democrats controlling both chambers, the market fears stricter regulations on AI data centers, possibly delaying storage orders. There are cracks too: consumer revenue is down 29% quarter-over-quarter, and price hikes are already driving buyers away.
Also, the 1-for-8 stock split takes effect on November 20: price divided by 8, market cap unchanged, the "cheaper" perception is an illusion.
A sharp drop and a full bottom are two different things.
#SNDKDerive's V3 launched on October 8, and a set of numbers three weeks later is quite counterintuitive: protocol fees dropped by a quarter, yet the buyback amount kept increasing.
First, let's look at the phenomenon. The average daily fees 30 days before launch were $23,500, dropping to $17,500 in the 24 days after launch. Based on the recent 30-day annualized data, revenue fell from $8.56 million to $6.43 million.
Now, the mechanism. V3 does one thing: makes trading cheaper. The fee rate dropped from 1.71 basis points to 1.57, making October the month with the lowest costs this year. Meanwhile, the buyback proportion of disposable income rose from 25% in January to 35% in April, reaching 50% in October.
These two factors almost completely offset each other. Previously, buybacks took 35% of $8.56 million, about $3 million per year; now they take 50% of $6.43 million, about $3.22 million. Revenue dropped by a quarter, but buybacks increased by 7%.
Architecturally, V3 discarded the self-built chain in favor of a zero-knowledge exchange; matching still happens off-chain, margin and settlement are placed into zkVM, with proofs verified on Ethereum L1. $ETH and $BTC can cross margin, and borrowing assets expanded to ETH, WBTC, and $HYPE.
Worth pondering: at current fees, allocating half to buybacks only repurchases about 1% of market cap annually; doubling trading volume would only reach 2%. What determines $DRV is the fee base.Samsung phones are all set to integrate with Sui, can SUI finally make a mark this time?
There was news on November 6 that many might have overlooked.
Samsung Wallet plans to support sending and receiving USDC via the Sui network later this month, initially targeting eligible Galaxy users in the United States.
Here’s a detail:
Users can complete payments through a gas-free stablecoin transfer mechanism, without needing to prepare SUI in advance to pay network fees.
For ordinary people, this is a much more acceptable experience.
After all, who wants to have to check if their wallet has enough gas just to transfer some stablecoins?
But from the perspective of SUI holders, I feel a bit conflicted.
Gas-free transactions do help lower the barrier to use, but if users don’t need to buy SUI to pay fees, how much benefit can the token actually gain from payment growth?
This question can’t be ignored.
An increase in network users, growth in stablecoin circulation, and higher app activity all bring value to the ecosystem.
But between ecosystem prosperity and token price increase, there still lies actual capital demand, token supply, and market valuation.
This collaboration with Samsung Wallet at least gives Sui a channel to reach ordinary users.
Whether it can lead to large-scale usage remains to be seen after the feature officially launches and data is available.
I won’t just shout $SUI takeoff because of one partnership. $PI is displaying clean structural strength as buyers accumulate firmly near support.
Momentum is coiling for a solid upward breakout.
Buy Zone
0.07420 - 0.07530
EP
0.07532
TP
0.07850
0.08200
0.08600
SL
0.07280
Bulls continue to defend lower range boundaries while buy volume builds steadily. Reclaiming local resistance opens the gateway for rapid price expansion.
Let's go $PI
#OKXOrbitTopics . Looking at Tether's gold news, it's better to separate the two reserve entries first to avoid many misunderstandings.
As of the end of September, about 25.7 tons of gold support XAUT, an increase of 59% compared to the end of last year. On the other hand, about 142.8 tons of gold support the reserves backing USDT, which decreased by about 3.4 tons in the third quarter. Since the corresponding products are different and the comparison periods differ, these two sets of data can both be valid simultaneously.
I think this precisely shows that when analyzing tokenized assets, just focusing on the issuer's name is far from enough. Within the same company system, there can be a USD stablecoin as well as a gold product; the rights promised to holders and the price risks assumed need to be understood separately.
Buyers of XAUT should pay attention to the gold backing it corresponds to; holders of USDT need to look at the complete reserve structure. Adding the gold tonnage from both sides together to talk about "gold strength" offers limited help in understanding the assets you hold.
The matter of gold on-chain still seems attractive to me. Transfers and trading are more convenient, which indeed can bring new usage demands. But the more convenient it is, the easier it is for people to skip the checks they would normally do.
This reserve growth is worth noting, and I hope holders also ask one more question: What kind of product do I hold, what specific assets does it correspond to, and what does the issuance documentation promise? These questions may seem trivial, but during market fluctuations, they are much more useful than just saying "there is physical backing".
#Tether旗下XAUT黄金储备增长59% $COIN
With increased trading share, can Coinbase break free from the crypto price cycle?
Coinbase's market share of crypto trading volume reached 10.7% in Q3, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. The increase in share can offset some industry transaction declines but cannot make the entire business automatically escape the cycle.
Market volatility stimulates trading but can also harm user assets and subsequent engagement. Whether subscription and service revenues continue determines how stable the revenue structure is.
I focus on the combination of share, effective fee rate, and recurring revenue. If share expansion can still maintain fees and cash flow, the competitive advantage is stronger; if growth relies on low-fee subsidies or user asset shrinkage suppresses service income, short-term volume growth should be viewed cautiously.The funding rate is still positive, indicating that the bulls haven't given up.
$BTC is oscillating between $75,000 and $78,000.
$ETH is consolidating narrowly between $2,200 and $2,300.
How this number is calculated: in perpetual contracts, longs pay shorts; a positive rate means the bulls are still paying to hold their positions.
In October, both fell by 7.3% and 16% respectively, with open interest dropping to a 12-month low.
A common misunderstanding: liquidation of leverage does not mean the bulls have exited.
The chips are lighter, but conviction remains, so the rebound can only be considered a recovery.
In October, $ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.6 billion, with funds moving towards Layer 2.
The sign of a reversal is not a long bullish candle, but the funding rate turning negative.
The bottom is only solidified on the day the bulls accept losses.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 $BTC $ETH The market dipped the day before yesterday. However, it stabilized yesterday, which is a good thing. —————————————————— It's the weekend now, the US stock market is closed, but crypto is still trading. Personally, I think $ETH might have a big surge over the weekend. Why? Because during the decline, a lot of funds bought $ETH at the bottom, and they will probably push the price up over the weekend. I believe crypto won't wait for the US stock market to open to start rising, because right now everyone is uncertain about the Democratic Party's stance on AI, so it's unclear if the US stock market can really rebound. That's my thinking, so I've bought some long positions now. If $ETH rises to $2300 tonight, I should make a small profit. —————————————————— Let's now look at the contract data. The contract data shows that during the last decline, the long-short ratio and open interest rose simultaneously, indicating that quite a bit of capital did buy at the bottom. When someone buys, there are people willing to push the price up, because pushing the price up makes money; if they don't push, they can't make money. I've observed previous weekend trends and found that after a sharp drop, crypto has a fairly high chance of rising over the weekend. —————————————————— Buying long positions now is still very cheap, so even if there are losses, they are within a controllable range. At times like this, staying out and watching is very prudent, that's how I see it. However, I still want to make some money, so I took a bit of risk and am willing to bear it. #美 After living day to day for a long time, I increasingly pay attention to those inconspicuous ongoing expenses. Whether the rent is expensive or not, you can't just look at how lively the neighborhood is. After retirement, when learning about digital assets, I noticed that perpetual contracts also carry this habit.
Hyperliquid's public market data shows that the current highest absolute funding rate is for $XMR, at a positive 0.0372% per hour, which annualizes to about 326%, yet the price dropped 0.88% in 24 hours. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts. I think this information carries more weight for position holders and is not a major event for the entire industry.
My understanding is that if the funding rate stays high, the waiting cost for longs accumulates; the price still falling also shows that a high funding rate does not guarantee a price increase. That annualized figure is just a conversion of the current rate and should not be taken as guaranteed returns. A reminder to young friends: don't just focus on price changes, also account for the cost of time. When you see such a funding rate, do you first calculate the full-day cost or check how long it has lasted?$BTC caught a breather above 76,000, with ETFs running $1.12 billion over seven days, but the latest single day quietly turned back to a slight net inflow. This rebound is fully supported by short covering, not institutional returns.
$ETH hovered around 2240, with 2280 acting as a ceiling above. Ethereum ETFs continue to bleed, and the market doesn't even bother to resist.
$ZEC, on the contrary, is holding steady near 1320 against the trend. With the NU7 upgrade and Ledger integration, the tougher the regulation, the more story it has. However, the annualized funding rate is nearly 20%, so chasing highs is basically paying wages to the shorts.
The A-share AI-themed stocks exploded today, with Jicheng Shares, Guomai Culture, Mango Excellent Media all up 20CM, and Wentou Holdings hitting intraday limit-up. Sentiment peaked sharply.
The photovoltaic sector hasn't dispersed yet; Minfa Aluminum hit five consecutive limit-ups, Yongzhen four, continuing to lead. ST Doushen surged 65% in a week, wildly strong.
US nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, beating expectations. The Dow was pressed down, but the Nasdaq stubbornly rose 1%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 4.2%, AMD up 11%, COHERENT up 13.6%. The rebound from oversold is faster than the rate hike knife.
On the Meme side, RELAY surged 9544% in one day, ANSEM also rose 21%. Speculators never care about macro conditions.
Money is skimming back and forth between the casino and safe havens, with no one daring to bet heavily on either side. On the large holder side, the SOL position has clearly shifted to a bearish bias.
On Hyperliquid, the WhaleRadar Whale Tide Index is about 15: weighted by performance, approximately 85% of directional large holder funds are short, with a sample of about 33 accounts totaling around $250 million; retail investors at the same scale are about 79, a difference of about 64 points between the two sides. The tracked whales account for more than half of SOL's open interest.
The key point: this is a snapshot of the position structure, not a call to go long or short. Large holders being bearish ≠ price must fall, retail investors being bullish also does not mean they will necessarily be harvested — both sides could be right, or both could be shaken out together.
Source: WhaleRadar / Hyperliquid position monitoring, derivative position disclosure nature; positions ≠ predictions. What do you think about this tug-of-war between large holders and retail investors? Let's discuss in the comments.
$SOLNot an outright ban, but legislative regulation, scrutinizing high-leverage perpetuals, US stock perpetuals, US user access, and HYPE token buybacks. The Bloomberg interview signals this clearly. Jeff changed into a suit to connect with Wall Street and cooperate with ICE, essentially to hedge in advance. Using ICE's compliance channel to separate the business reduces the risk of heavy US regulatory crackdown, but the cost is soaring compliance expenses. Now is not the moment of outbreak; it's thIn the latest trading day, spot funds saw a net outflow exceeding $410 million, with nearly $870 million accumulated over the four trading days since the beginning of the month. The most striking figure was a top fund's single-day outflow of $405 million, the largest since the end of June; at the same time, another major institution took the opposite position, buying $237 million. On the same channel, two institutions made opposite moves—not just sentiment, but someone is rotating positions at this level. Let's clarify the direction of the money first. The institutional part of the buying is essentially exchanging funding costs for risk exposure; with interest rates not falling and the dollar not loosening, its marginal demand is retreating—fund shares are being redeemed, market makers receive sell orders, and prices naturally slide down. Even more painful is the leverage side: when spot redemptions and contract liquidations happen simultaneously, selling pressure accelerates itself. Over 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations just over $1 billion, 80% of which were long positions—this is the chain reaction running here. Understanding this chain reveals that what is suppressing the coin price now is not retail sentiment but funding costs. Politically, this line must also be considered. After the midterm elections, the bank committees in both chambers will change leadership, and regulatory tone will only tighten—but don't expect regulatory benefits to first fall on spot funds. Historically, every time Washington intervenes, it targets specific individuals, while others run faster on the sidelines. At this point, the tightening stance targets specific cases, not the entire sector. History is here: when spot funds launched in January 2024, money flowed in following the narrative, and no one accounted for funding costs; the redemption in November 2022...The most vulnerable link has never been the price, but the narrative foundation being targeted by legislation. With this HYPE pullback, do you see an opportunity or a warning? Recently reviewing HYPE's market, the more I look, the more it feels like it's trading something not yet fully priced in: regulatory identity. With the US midterm elections approaching, if the Democrats take Congress, several issues—high-leverage perpetuals, US stock perpetuals, US user access, and HYPE buybacks—could be brought to the hearing table. Note, it's not an outright ban, but rule-setting, which is even more grueling because compliance costs will gradually eat into profit margins. Jeff's suit and the ICE partnership, I interpret as buying insurance in advance. Using compliance channels to segment the business reduces the chance of a heavy hammer, at the cost of raising operating expenses. This path is a long-term positive for the project, but the short-term valuation model needs recalculating. What the market is trading now is not a ban, but a compliance discount. Judging by sector strength, the perpetual DEX track where HYPE is located has clearly underperformed the broader market recently, with capital starting to pull back from policy-sensitive targets like this. The bullish logic is: once the compliance framework is established, leading players will actually benefit from license dividends, and HYPE has the first-mover advantage. The risk is: before the election results come out, any hearing rumors can amplify volatility, and the overall risk appetite for altcoins will be dragged down. My judgment is that we are currently in a phase where risk is being priced in advance, not a trend starting point. The bullish path requires waiting for legislative outlines to become clear, while bearish risks hide in sentiment—one piece of news can create a deep pit. Timing-wise Rocket Lab Earnings Preview: The Answer for Neutron Is "Still Waiting"
The probability that Q3 revenue will fall within the guidance range and slightly exceed consensus is not low: guidance is $250–265 million, consensus about $256 million, with Space Systems contract conversions and Electron launch cadence as the baseline. But the real pricing variable in this earnings report is not revenue.
Neutron's maiden flight has officially been postponed to 2027 in October, and not early in the year. The manufacturing defect in the carbon composite tank dome has been fixed, but the cryogenic and hydrostatic pressure tests will drag on until the end of Q1 2027, after which the launch date will be reset. This means there will be no Neutron revenue in 2026, and the window for the first half of 2027 is also "precarious." The best the management can say is that "testing is progressing according to the new schedule," but the essential answer to "how is progress" is "still waiting."
With a backlog of $2.36 billion and over 100 launch missions, the story is not bad. But there is almost no room for earnings per share to exceed expectations; the Neutron delay has changed the pricing logic of this earnings report: the market is no longer paying for single-quarter revenue numbers but is repricing the time cost for "Neutron in 2027." Revenue beats cannot save the valuation narrative; time accumulates in a compounding manner.
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ This move follows the short-term weakness trend; I see it reinforcing cautious sentiment, not a bottom-fishing signal. $LIT dropped 7.16% in the past hour, from $3.51 to $3.26, with a 24-hour decline of 4.48%.
I have three principles for trend trading: watch the direction, don't guess the bottom — both hourly and intraday performance are weak, and low price alone is not a reason to stop the decline; distinguish levels, don't generalize — the sharp drop in one hour indicates short-term pressure but is insufficient to judge longer cycles; consider position cost, not just price — the position volume is about $123 million, funding rate remains positive, so longs still pay funding costs during the drop, meaning selling pressure is not necessarily exhausted.
The trend is the best friend. I won't rush to look for a reversal just because of a fast drop; next, I will only observe whether the price can stop the weakness and whether positions and funding rates cool down simultaneously.Bitcoin's false boom may not last for many more years. It can't exactly be called a scam, since many early investors have made a fortune, but the inherent nature of speculative assets requires a continuous stream of new buyers. Please note, here’s the key point: over the past 5 years, those who invested regularly have basically made no profit. The average transaction price over 5 years was $60,000, and now Bitcoin is at $70,000. After accounting for the opportunity cost equivalent to bank interest, Bitcoin has had no investment value in the last 5 years. Is it possible that the next 5 years will be the same? If a financial asset cannot bring you any returns in 10 years, what will its fate be? Besides gambling and money laundering, perhaps because Bitcoin has not become an official or widely accepted payment method in the digital currency space, it can only continue to exist in the underground gray market. What is your view on this fundamental issue of returns?Democrats take both chambers, is crypto doomed? Don't panic yet!
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查
The chat group has been full of voices saying "It's over, the Democrats are going to kill the crypto world."
Really? Let's look at the hard data first:
In 2025, the CLARITY Act passed the House with 294 votes, including 78 Democrats in favor; the GENIUS stablecoin bill passed the Senate with 68 votes, supported by 18 Democratic senators.
In this midterm election, the crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto counted 245 pro-crypto candidates elected (226 in the House, 19 in the Senate), from both parties.
There are indeed strong regulators like Warren and Waters within the party, but they are mostly targeting Trump's use of crypto as a family ATM, not 100% opposing the entire industry.
Regulation and "crackdown" are not the same thing.
Behaviors like Trump's use of cryptocurrency as a personal or even family ATM should indeed be regulated.
Personal judgment:
In the short term, it will definitely be tighter, with more hearings and investigations, and the legislative pace will slow down.
But a complete ban? The probability is low.
Crypto is no longer a niche game; both parties have supporters.
What we should really worry about is whether the industry can continue to prove its value, not blaming all problems on political parties. SoftBank's Q2 "beats expectations," but the support isn't from OpenAI
Net profit for April to June 2026 was ¥347.3 billion, down 18% year-on-year, yet more than double market expectations. However, digging deeper: the market support came from a one-time revaluation—Intel's shareholding unrealized gains of about ¥1.3 trillion, which is non-repeatable. The real mainline Vision Fund pre-tax profit was only ¥5.43 billion, a plummet of 98.8%; OpenAI contributed zero profit or loss this quarter due to an unchanged valuation since the end of March.
The issue isn't "whether OpenAI is worth it," but "whether SoftBank can afford to wait." The cumulative commitment has reached $64.6 billion, holding about 13%, but the assets are unlisted and illiquid. SoftBank continues to sustain itself by issuing debt and pledging Arm shares, with five-year CDS nearing a four-year high. An even more glaring signal: in OpenAI's new financing in November, SoftBank only discussed investing a few hundred million dollars, a stark contrast to the hundreds of billions invested in the past.
This financial report cannot answer whether the results are "impressive"; it only exposes a crack: the headline heat of the AI narrative is decoupling from the true temperature of financial quality.
#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ A single bet was placed before the New York Times poll was released.
The bet amount was nearly $200,000, ultimately earning over $77,000 in profit. The numbers themselves aren't shocking; what's shocking is the timing: the money was placed before the information was public, and when the poll came out, the result just confirmed it.
This matter is worth pondering not because it's another "insider trading" scandal, but because it exposes a structural issue. The pricing speeds of prediction markets and spot markets differ. If you want to profit from information asymmetry on $BTC, you first have to interpret the data, then judge how the market will interpret it, and then judge how others interpret others' interpretations—there are several layers of noise in between. Prediction markets skip all the intermediate steps and directly bet on the result itself. The information advantage here doesn't need translation; it can be monetized immediately.
Putting nearly $200,000 principal on a single point shows that the bettor was quite confident in their information. Ordinary traders wouldn't do this—they would diversify, hedge, and keep options open. This kind of all-in bet is itself a signal.
So the real question isn't "Who made $77,000 this time?" but rather: when the result itself can be traded, how much is knowing the result in advance worth? Once this question has an answer, there will be no shortage of people willing to pay for it.
The takeaway for position holders is straightforward: in event-driven markets, prices often move significantly before the news is officially announced. If you wait for the announcement to trade on $ETH, you might be stepping into positions that others have already profited from.Berkshire's $400 billion cash signals not a "top escape," but a "handover pricing"
In Q1 2026, cash and short-term debt totaled $397.4 billion, accounting for 58% of total assets, surpassing stocks at 42%. This is the fifth time in history that "cash exceeds stocks," with the previous four times corresponding to 1969/1987/2000/2008. But don't just read this as a crash warning: short-term debt yields range from 3.6% to 4.3%, equity risk premium is close to zero, Berkshire is not bearish, it refuses to pay for unjustified risks.
More importantly, in Q2: after Abel took over, the 14-quarter net selling ended, with net buying close to $20 billion and buybacks of $4.5 billion, reducing cash to about $365 billion. The $400 billion is no longer Buffett's defensive fortress; it is becoming Abel's pricing ammunition: first buy back its own shares, then wait for others to be cheap. When to play the card depends not on whether the US stock market falls, but on whether asset prices deserve patience. The phone is still ringing, but the person answering has changed.
#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Yesterday I just said Anthropic's IPO is the thermometer of the AI sector, and today it has given a reading.
The roadshow continues, the November listing is still on, but investors are already lowering valuation expectations — originally planning to raise over $80 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, aiming to list before Thanksgiving.
Why is this important?
Because IPOs are different from secondary market stock trading: stockholders can buy today and sell tomorrow, but IPO subscription funds are locked for at least half a year.
Those willing to lock real money into long positions are the most honest votes for the long-term AI narrative.
There are three possible outcomes next:
1. Price reduction but successful issuance — the most likely and healthiest scenario. A layer of the bubble is squeezed out, the anchor shifts down a bit, which is actually good for the long term.
2. Significant shrinkage or delay — the primary market enters a winter first, AI unicorn valuations will be revised downward in a chain reaction, and high-valued stocks in the secondary market lose their reference points.
3. Withstand pressure and issue at the original price — indicating there is more long-term money than expected, and the AI narrative still has some breath left.
The performance on the first day of listing is more critical than pricing. A break below the issue price means even "new share arbitrage" money is unwilling to buy, and the entire sector sentiment turns bearish immediately.
A strong opening and stabilization means this round of tech stock correction has truly bottomed out.
Anthropic's IPO is no longer just a company matter; it is a valuation referendum for the entire AI era.
#Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 😆😆The draw is in two days, one number will decide life or death!!
Rocket Lab will release its Q3 earnings report after the market closes on Monday, November 9, with a conference call at 17:00 ET. The first full trading day is Tuesday, November 10.
Recent market sentiment has been highly volatile, plunging to 45.99 on Thursday with a big drop, then rebounding sharply to 53.07 on Friday, a 15.39% surge, reflecting an oversold condition combined with a pre-earnings run-up. The run-up is a double-edged sword; at the current price level, the earnings report leaves less room for error.
Market expectations are for revenue of 256.5 million, Q4 guidance expected at 267.5 million, and GAAP EPS expected at -0.067. The company’s original guidance was revenue between 250 million and 265 million, with a gross margin of 29%-31%. Based on the midpoint, the GAAP loss may be slightly worse than expected, so there is considerable pressure on the GAAP line.
Historical earnings day performance:
Q3 2025: -1.27%
Q4 2025: -4.89% (double beat but still declined)
Q1 2026: +34.22% (beat across the board + order surge)
Q2 2026: -0.04% (big drop after hours, recovered the next day)
Only one of the four quarters saw a big gain, showing that simply meeting earnings targets doesn’t guarantee a rise; the market values the long-term story more. The current stock price has pulled back significantly from its high, compressing valuation, but Friday’s rebound has raised the bar for speculation. $PLTR
U.S. commercial revenue surpasses government revenue—has Palantir's valuation logic changed?
Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue in Q3 grew 148% year-over-year, surpassing U.S. government business revenue for the first time. The growth is broader-based, which is an important change, but the high growth rate will also raise the subsequent comparison base.
The value of software expansion lies in reuse: whether new customers can generate revenue through the same set of products without a proportional increase in delivery personnel. There is still an execution process between contract signing and high gross margin revenue.
If commercial customer expansion brings sustained cash collection and per-share cash flow growth, the premium is more justified; if delivery costs, equity incentives, or customer concentration risks increase, it is necessary to reduce simple extrapolation based on revenue growth.I feel like the crypto space is full of a lot of messy nonsense news, which is why everyone keeps getting liquidated every day. People keep trying to decide their positions based on things like nonfarm payrolls and inflation data! That's inherently damn lagging. The problem is that the current logic of the crypto $BTC market has long been tied only to the Trump administration, and it has nothing to do with economic fundamentals anymore.
Back when Trump had absolute control, the entire crypto market was in a state of certainty with only slight fluctuations influenced by news in the broader environment and long-term trends. As the biggest bull for crypto $BTC, Trump would always try his best to push policies favorable to crypto. But now the logic has completely changed; it's no longer a one-man show. With the Democrats controlling Congress, they will definitely try every means to block the advancement of crypto legislation. It's going to be hard to see a stable bullish trend for $BTC in the future!
Honestly, the Bitcoin bubble is also quite serious. I've always thought that after Trump's term ended, the crypto space would likely suffer a heavy blow. Now it seems that day might come sooner than expected!
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Waiting for Berkshire's Q3 report to come out
To be honest, right now I only focus on two numbers: operating profit and cash
The total net profit fluctuates too much, investment gains and losses can quickly swing by hundreds of millions or billions, which is not very meaningful. If operating profit can remain stable or slightly increase, it means the underlying insurance, railroad, and energy businesses are still making normal profits
If it drops significantly, that would be a real problem
Cash is even more critical. At the end of last quarter, it was about 360 billion, and this quarter they've already spent on buying Taylor Morrison and buybacks. If cash continues to decline, it means Greg Abel is getting serious; if it piles back up, then it's the same old story—lots of money but can't find cheap enough places to invest
When the numbers come out, I will just look at these two; no rush to draw conclusions on the others yet.