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#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向
Essentially, Buffett's team remains cautious about the current market valuation. This earnings report focuses on two key points: whether cash reserves will continue to rise, and whether Abel has made any large acquisitions. The massive ammunition held in reserve is not a bullish signal but rather a wait for market panic and discounted quality assets. It's worth referencing this big player's risk control approach!BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced net outflows on the same day, with money flowing out
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $412 million yesterday, with IBIT having the largest outflow; Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $93.1887 million on the same day, led by ETHA. Both sides moving together suggests it’s not just a one-sided portfolio adjustment.
What holders need to watch is the sustainability, not just the single-day figures. ETF channel funds usually move slowly, but once the direction forms a chain, the market’s support strength will weaken.
Another signal comes from the mining side: Bitdeer maintains zero Bitcoin holdings and sold 258.6 BTC this week. When miners hold no inventory and ETF net outflows are considered together, supply-side actions are more worth monitoring than the price itself.Pause for a moment. Don't rush. This time, I'm more cautious about the rebound after chasing a position. ⚡Hyperliquid's public market data shows that $XMR currently has the highest absolute funding rate among contracts, at 0.0372% per hour, approximately 326% annualized, but the price dropped 0.88% in 24 hours.
My judgment: This seems more like a reminder that short-term rhythms can easily get twisted, not a direct bearish signal. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts, so holding positions for a long time incurs costs; yet the price still falls, indicating that paying the fee didn't bring a simultaneous price increase. Conversely, a high funding rate doesn't mean shorts will definitely win, and the annualized figure shouldn't be taken as guaranteed profit.
My approach to entry and exit is to wait for price confirmation and not chase direction based on funding rates. If the price continues to weaken, I'll give up on trying to catch a rebound; if it suddenly pulls back, I won't stubbornly hold a short just because I receive funding. When encountering this combination of high positive funding rate but weak price, would you skip it directly or wait for a pullback to be supported?In 2025, losses caused by investment scams in the UK reached £221.5 million, highlighting a sharp rise that underscores social media platforms as a primary gateway for financial fraud. Scammers no longer need to hack bank accounts; a single Instagram ad or a seemingly credible WhatsApp message is enough to convince victims to transfer funds voluntarily. This shift marks a fundamental change in fraud tactics from technical attacks to psychological manipulation. New Fraud Scenarios Scammers exploit the trust and reach of social media to target retail investors, often using high-return promises on cryptocurrencies, forex, or fake investment projects as bait. Once contact is established, victims are guided through a series of seemingly legitimate steps—fake trading platforms, forged profit records, even small initial withdrawals—to build confidence before larger sums are transferred. This "authorized push payment" model makes it technically harder for banks and regulators to intervene. Fraud data from the UK reflects broader trends in Europe and North America, where investment scams have surpassed card fraud to become the category with the highest financial losses in consumer financial crime. Cryptocurrency-related scams are a significant component, with scammers leveraging the anonymity and cross-border nature of digital assets to obscure fund flows. Industry and Regulatory Impact The surge in social media-driven scams poses direct challenges to platforms and financial regulators. Social media companies face increasing pressure to verify advertiser identities and proactively remove fraudulent content; regulators are also urged to extend responsibility beyond banks to the platforms publishing the ads A trader once showed off a screenshot of 30x leverage as a badge of honor, but now he doesn't even dare to let anyone see his account—he's stuck in $BTC buy orders around 75,800, buying more as it falls, to the point of forgetting why he entered the market in the first place. This is not a joke, but the most real snapshot of the current market: retail investors' "faith" is turning into liquidity on the opposite side. Interestingly, at the same time, the macro narrative is pushing in the opposite direction. The US October nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the market's bets on a December rate hike have intensified—this means tightening expectations on the dollar side are rising again, putting pressure on risk asset valuations from the denominator side. $BTC falling in this environment is not a coincidence, but a repricing of the possibility of "higher interest rates lasting longer." Retail investors see it as a "discount," while institutions see a "change in discount rates." This is where the crowd is most prone to misjudgment. Bottom-fishers treat price drops as opportunities but ignore that the driver of the decline has shifted from sentiment to macro structure. The reason 75,800 is a "stuck" point is precisely because it is an emotional anchor rather than a value anchor—when the reason to buy is "it has fallen badly" rather than "it is undervalued," the position becomes a psychological burden rather than a trading decision. A deeper second-order effect is that when leveraged retail investors are trapped and the culture of showing off orders fades, the market's marginal buying will shift from "impulsive funds chasing gains" to "patient funds waiting for confirmation." This transition period is often accompanied by shrinking volume and weak rebounds, making $BTC's price discovery more dependent on macro data rather than on-chain narratives. $ETH and $SOL, these kinds of high$AXON
Software is growing rapidly, so why does Axon still focus solely on procurement delays?
Axon's software and services revenue in Q3 increased by 43% year-over-year, but the latest full-year guidance excludes approximately $130 million in federal Dedrone deployment revenue. There is a mismatch between long-term demand and short-term procurement realization.
Recurring software can improve revenue stability, while hardware and government deployments are still affected by budget, acceptance, and procurement processes. One high-growth segment cannot offset the risk of delays in another.
If subsequent deployments are re-implemented and payments stabilize, the short-term gap can be repaired; if order delays persist repeatedly, the backlog scale cannot be directly regarded as near-term profit and revenue visibility needs to be downgraded.Industry Chain and Market Impact
US Cloud Vendors and AI Hardware: Approval delays and soaring grid connection costs may postpone some local data center deliveries; the proportion of non-chip CapEx spent on grid access and compliance increases, effectively diluting the budget flexibility for GPU procurement
Traditional Utilities: Facing stringent pricing scrutiny, it is difficult to cover large customer infrastructure costs by raising prices for residents
Self-Generated Power and Off-Grid Generation: Tech giants will accelerate bypassing the public grid, directly signing power purchase agreements (PPA) with nuclear power (SMR), natural gas, and large-scale integrated solar-storage projects
Compute Power Offshore and Technology Shift: Domestic restrictions will push some training compute power to overflow to the Middle East, Northern Europe, and Southeast Asia; simultaneously, this forces large model vendors to shift from "purely stacking GPUs" to algorithm efficiency optimization, edge inference, and low-power chips
In the short term, the implementation cycle of related legislation is long, mostly reflecting valuation disturbances caused by policy uncertainty
In the medium to long term, "power and compliance access" has replaced "GPU capacity" as the primary hard constraint limiting AI expansion
Going forward, the core issue is no longer the total CapEx of tech giants, but what proportion can truly be converted into powered-on, operational compute
#AI巨头融资观察：OpenAI完成110亿美元融资，科技企业发债潮持续 $OPENAI No shortage of chips, but a shortage of power! The U.S. tightens data center approvals, will the AI industry chain face a new round of reshuffling?
The U.S. plans to tighten data center regulations, essentially a backlash against the disorderly expansion of AI computing power clashing with U.S. energy bottlenecks and grassroots livelihood interests.
Three main regulatory measures:
1. Limit new capacity: Propose suspending construction or raising environmental review thresholds for hyperscale computing centers. Due to resident protests over noise and water/electricity consumption, places like Virginia and Pennsylvania have begun to shelve controversial projects in batches.
2. Reshape power grid cost allocation: Require hyperscale power users to fully bear the costs of dedicated grid connections and grid expansion, ending the previous model where ordinary residents' electricity bills subsidized infrastructure costs.
3. Cancel tax incentives: Explore reducing property and equipment tax exemptions for data centers and taxing high-energy-consuming computing power, directly squeezing the capital expenditure returns of tech giants.
Underlying conflicts erupt:
AI iteration far outpaces the upgrade speed of the aging U.S. power grid; transformer shortages and grid connection queues delay infrastructure, while data centers' power grabs cause residents' electricity bills to rise and increase power rationing risks. This has evolved into a direct political issue affecting votes, forcing regulators to shift from unconditionally encouraging AI to balancing the power grid and public livelihood.
$SNDK #Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 There's something I've never quite understood: when someone is publicly called out once, why does it seem to work even better this round?
ZachXBT said Ansem promotes small-cap tokens and celebrity tokens, and gamblers have given him credibility again this cycle, essentially lining up to exit liquidity themselves. The criticism hasn't devalued him; instead, it has become part of his resume.
The issue lies in the attention itself. There's not much to analyze about small-cap coins; what matters is who's shouting. The more controversial the shouter, the more people think "this time it's different." But the market cap remains the same, and the money coming in has to be taken by someone.
So every time I see someone shouting about a new coin, I only ask one question: who's selling on the other side? Current price: approximately $75,900—76,100 (slight variations across exchanges), roughly RMB 506,000 24H range: 74,877 — 76,374 Distance from all-time high: about -39.9% (ATH 126,080, 2025-10-06) Stage decline: about -8.8% in the past month, about -28.9% in the past 3 months, about -13.5% year-to-date Market sentiment: panic zone (fear index around 25) Volume: significantly shrunk, down about 35%—37% from the previous day, below the median of the past 30 days Key moves in the last three days: - 11/4: +3.94% rebound to 80,504. - 11/5: Nasdaq plunged 5.52%, Bitcoin dropped 5.49% in sync; US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflow of $430 million in one day (previous day was a net inflow of $74.6 million), long liquidations about $880 million. - 11/6: US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October (expected only 65,000), US Treasury yields rose, December rate hike expectations intensified. Bitcoin briefly fell below 75,000 to a low of 74,888, then rebounded to close near 75,844, slightly down 0.32% — US stocks rebounded, but crypto did not follow. II. Technicals: Neither bulls nor bears won - Support: 75,633 (daily IchimZachXBT recently said something worth reading three times for those still chasing celebrity coins: He once publicly named Ansem for promoting small-cap tokens and celebrity tokens, but gamblers in this cycle have given Ansem credibility again and provided exit liquidity.
The most painful part is not "promotion," but "again."
When someone is publicly named once, logically their credibility should be discounted. But in reality, his influence hasn't dropped; instead, the controversy has made him more visible. This is the strangest aspect of celebrity coins in this cycle: negative exposure is not a detriment but a source of traffic.
The mechanism is simple. Small-cap tokens have no fundamentals; their price is driven by attention, which is highly concentrated on a few people who shout out. This creates a closed loop—shouting signals, retail investors enter and push prices up, early holders sell at the high, and the buyers become the "exit liquidity." This term is not emotional expression; it precisely describes the flow of funds: your purchase is someone else's sale.
So the real question is not "Is this KOL reliable?" but "Who holds the chips?" If the answer is him and a small group of early addresses, no matter how sincere his calls are, your position is the exit.
Don't expect safety by switching KOLs; the same structure works with different people. Varieties like $BTC still have holders, not because they have risen much, but because the opposing positions are sufficiently dispersed, and no one can decide your exit price with a single tweet.
Knowing they've been named, why do people still give credibility? Probably because they all think they can leave before the music stops. $BTC climbed back above 76,000 on Saturday, but ETFs have already withdrawn 1.28 billion in November, with BlackRock pulling out 403 million in just one day on Friday. This rebound is driven by short-covering, not institutional returns.
$ETH wavered around 2,248, with the shadow of the Glamsterdam upgrade delay still lingering. However, a giant whale quietly scooped up 8,775 coins on-chain at a cost of 2,245, picking up bloodied chips.
$ZEC's NU7 upgrade has truly landed, cutting block time to 25 seconds. On Friday, it briefly squeezed shorts to 1,387, but today it slid back to 1,267. The positive news has been fully priced in, leaving those chasing highs stranded at the peak.
On the A-share market, a hundred stocks hit their daily limit, but the spotlight was on baijiu (white liquor). Huangtai Liquor hit a two-day limit up, followed by Shuijingfang and Jinzhongzi Liquor sealing their limits. AI animation stocks Jiecheng and Guomai surged 20CM, Wentou Holdings hit the daily limit, and broad-based ETFs saw a massive inflow of 129.5 billion, with money flowing back through major channels.
ST Doushen surged 65% in a week, Zhejiang Film Industry hit a five-day limit up, photovoltaic stocks Ainengju and Yongzhen remain on the list, but banks and coal stocks fell against the trend, with funds both fighting and hiding.
In the US market, the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 4.21%, AMD gained 11%, Intel rose 7.7%, TSMC climbed 6.2%, with chip stocks rushing to recover. However, the Dow was pressed down by the non-farm payrolls, falling 0.46%, showing a clear split.
On one side, ETFs are withdrawing; on the other, chip stocks are rebounding from oversold. Meanwhile, A-shares rotate mysteriously on their own. Ultimately, the market itself is too lazy to answer which side the money trusts.Hold on to two data points tightly. First, the perpetual funding rate is still mildly positive, nowhere near the level of extreme short squeeze or deeply negative rates — the real bottom often comes when shorts are squeezed out and funding rates turn deeply negative, which is far from now. Second, the main liquidations these days are longs, not shorts, indicating the deleveraging meat grinder hasn't stopped yet. A low-volume rebound means anyone rushing in can easily get stuck halfway up the mouTRX, NEAR, and XTZ continue to increase issuance, causing token oversupply and continuous dilution of holding value, resulting in long-term pressure.
Celo, Ronin, and RVN have capped total supply, with incremental issuance gradually decreasing, and scarcity accumulating over time, supporting long-term value.
TRX relies on the TRON ecosystem but token release is nonstop; NEAR continuously produces blocks and issues more tokens; XTZ adds tokens through staking rewards; Celo focuses on mobile stablecoin payments; Ronin specializes in blockchain gaming scenarios; RVN is a PoW asset issuance public chain with no inflation backdoors.
Short-term market trends are driven by capital sentiment, but over a longer cycle, supply rules are the true dividing line of value. #Elon Musk expects SpaceX's annualized revenue to exceed $100 billion by the end of the year Elon Musk stated at an investment conference that Q4 revenue is expected to increase about 70% quarter-on-quarter, with annualized revenue reaching over $100 billion by year-end. Meanwhile, government revenue proportion is rapidly falling below 10%, with the core growth engine officially shifting to Starlink communications and AI computing power business. This expectation also drove a single-day rebound in the stock price.
Structurally, Starlink is currently a stable cash cow, continuously contributing profits through global individual, airline, and enterprise subscriptions; the high growth highlight comes from the AI computing power business, with major clients like Anthropic driving explosive computing power revenue, already surpassing traditional rocket launch business. This change perfectly offsets market concerns: after the Democrats took control of Congress, the market has worried about government contracts for Musk's companies being reviewed or reduced. The continuous decline in government order proportion reduces policy risk exposure.
However, it should be clear that this is Musk's scenario forecast, not a performance commitment. To achieve the goal, on one hand, AI computing power contracts must continue to be secured without losing major clients; on the other hand, Starlink's expansion is still suppressing revenue per user, requiring user scale to compensate for the decline in average revenue per user. At the same time, Starship R&D and computing infrastructure capital expenditures are huge, so high revenue growth does not necessarily mean profit improvement.
From the market perspective, this optimistic guidance repairs valuation cuts caused by earlier regulatory panic, but Wall Street institutions generally predict figures far below Musk's targets, showing significant divergence. Follow-up focus will be on actual Q4 revenue, AI client renewals, and Starlink new user data. $BTC $SPCX Important signals have appeared in the AI industry chain: memory orders are locked in until 2030, and demand for energy equipment remains strong!
Recently, the market has been discussing a question: how much of the crazy investment in AI infrastructure is genuine demand, and how much is just storytelling by the capital market?
On November 7, the latest earnings call information from two companies provided an answer worth noting.
First, let's look at Micron.
Sumit Sadana, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer of Micron, stated that in the past, traditional long-term supply agreements (LTA) usually lasted only 12 months and lacked real binding force. But now the situation is completely different.
With AI's growing demand for key chips such as high-bandwidth memory, Micron is signing new Strategic Customer Agreements (SCA) with strategic customers. These agreements typically last up to 5 years, with some orders covering until 2030, and adopt a binding "take-or-pay" model.
Simply put, previously customers could flexibly adjust orders based on market conditions; now, with the new agreements signed, they cannot buy or cancel at will. Even if they do not take delivery, they must fulfill payment obligations according to the contract.
Next, let's look at GE Vernova.
Previously, the market was worried that the large power equipment needed for AI data center construction, such as turbine orders, might be canceled or delayed due to customers' financing difficulties.🚨Weekend stock tokens are moving, but are they showing real value or just predicting Monday?
With US markets closed, tokens like $SPCX and $SNDK rely on oracle prices and platform order books rather than actual stock trading. Weekend gains can be misleading, especially when real stock redemption is limited to whitelisted institutions.
Remember: Monday’s opening bell can change everything. Don’t mistake weekend price swings for confirmed momentum.
#DailyOrbit $BTC is barely holding above 76,000, but the November ETF has already withdrawn nearly 1.28 billion, with BlackRock pulling out 403 million in just one day on Friday. Fidelity's inflows are negligible; this sideways movement is a breather after leveraged liquidation, not a return of institutions.
$ETH wobbled to 2,248 but couldn't lift its head. The ETF saw net outflows for two consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA losing 90.76 million in a single day. The market doesn't even bother to resist.
$ZEC's NU7 upgrade story is over; block time cut to 25 seconds. It surged to 1,330 on Wednesday but dropped to a low of 1,229 today, down nearly 5% in 24 hours. The solo rally is officially over, and those chasing highs are left stranded at the peak.
Today in the A-shares market, the "Yang" stocks retreated, while the "Oriental" group surged en masse. A hidden line-up includes Sunrise Oriental and Oriental Ocean. Photovoltaic Minfa Aluminum hit five consecutive limit-ups, Yongzhen four, continuing to hold strong. AI short drama Zhejiang Film and Television hit five consecutive limit-ups. Agriculture quietly took over due to El Niño expectations.
The US stock market saw the Nasdaq rise 1.09%, Philadelphia Semiconductor soared 4.2%, AMD up over 11%, TSMC and Intel up over 6%. Chips and optical communications are scrambling to recover, but the Dow was pressed down by non-farm payrolls, falling 0.46%. The Nasdaq's weekly decline has extended to four consecutive weeks, clearly showing a split.
On one side, ETFs are withdrawing; on the other, chip oversold rebounds and A-share mystical rotations are each doing their own thing. The market itself is too lazy to answer which side the money truly trusts. Can Bitcoin solve the problem of America's spiraling debt?
In 1981, the total US national debt was only 1 trillion dollars.
This year, just the interest payments amount to 1 trillion, more than the military budget.
Total debt exceeds 40 trillion, a 40-fold increase in 45 years.
Raising taxes would collapse the economy. Cutting spending would topple politicians.
No matter how you calculate it, it can't be repaid.
So this Tuesday, a Wall Street fund manager Andrew Horns brought up an idea he's been discussing for nearly two years in an interview:
The Treasury should build a Bitcoin reserve, buying a few dollars of Bitcoin for every 100 dollars borrowed. When the debt matures in 20 years, the gains from Bitcoin would be used directly to repay it.
The principle is simple: the government borrows at an interest rate of 4% to 5% per year; as long as Bitcoin's long-term growth outpaces this interest, Bitcoin effectively repays the national debt.
He also admits: it can't save the US, only offset part of the debt, and the premise is not selling for 20 years—if Bitcoin is dumped mid-way, the whole plan collapses.
Then comes the most ironic timeline: the day this interview aired was exactly the US midterm election voting day.
The next day’s count: Democrats took both houses of Congress, Trump lost Congress. The financial regulatory chair fell into the hands of Warren, the person the crypto community least wants to see.
The bill to regulate crypto was just blocked in the Senate in September, now basically dead; Trump's family's crypto business is likely to be investigated by Congress over the next two years.
So, this kind of Bitcoin-backed national debt basically won't be issued within two years.
But two other paths are still alive:#After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebound, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still falls about 3.4% **My judgment: This looks more like a post-crash recovery, not enough to confirm that tech stocks have bottomed out.**
- **The rebound is real, but the weekly chart remains weak.** On November 6, the Nasdaq rose about **1.1%**, but fell about **3.4%** for the whole week, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline. A one-day recovery is not enough to reverse the previous downtrend.
- **Pressure has not been fully relieved.** The market is still reassessing AI investment returns and regulatory risks; strong non-farm payrolls have increased concerns about rate hikes. Tech stock earnings growth and valuation pressure can occur simultaneously.
- **Next, watch if the rebound can hold.** I will observe whether the following trading days hold the Friday low, whether the rise can spread to more stocks, and whether US Treasury yields stabilize. These are more valuable indicators than a single-day gain.
**Now is not the time to heavily buy the dip just because of "big drops." Tech leaders with existing profits and cash flow support deserve priority observation, while AI concept stocks relying on financing expansion still require caution.**Last night when the non-farm payroll data came out, I stared at the screen in shock for a few seconds!
165,000, while the expectation was only 65,000, that's more than double~
The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%...
Honestly, this data is ridiculously strong. I was originally hoping for a rate cut in December, but now it looks like the probability has jumped from 67% to 80%.
We can't hold any illusions about a rate cut anymore.
Simply put, money is going to get more expensive again.
As the dollar strengthens, risk assets are the first to get hit. $XAUT gold already started to dive last night. $BTC and $ETH didn't crash along with it,
but don't think they can stay unscathed, because the total funds in the market are limited, and with rate hike expectations weighing down, institutions dare not rush in aggressively!
As for altcoins, don't even mention it; once liquidity tightens, there's no escaping.
I casually reduced some of my altcoin positions yesterday. Surviving during this macro shift is more important than anything else~
Of course, on the flip side, there could still be opportunities. If the December rate meeting turns out to be all bad news priced in, or if next week's CPI unexpectedly cools down, this wave of expectations could be overturned at any time. Then those who missed out will be another group. So I didn't clear my positions, just lowered my leverage 🥳
What about your current positions? Share in the comments, I'd like to see what everyone thinks 😃#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 **My judgment: This nonfarm payroll report strengthens the case for a December rate hike, but it is not yet enough to conclude that the hike is a done deal.**
- **The data is indeed strong:** October added **165,000** jobs, exceeding the market expectation of about 60,000–70,000; the unemployment rate was **4.1%**, and average hourly earnings rose **0.4%** month-over-month. Employment resilience gives the Fed more room to focus on inflation.
- **There are also reasons to be cautious:** Year-over-year hourly earnings grew only **3.1%**, and the number of people forced to work part-time for economic reasons increased by 339,000. The entire report should not be interpreted as a sign of broad overheating.
- **Regarding the market, I tend to be short-term bearish on overvalued assets.** If inflation remains elevated, rate hike expectations may further push up yields, putting pressure on tech stocks and gold; if inflation cools, this stronger-than-expected employment can be understood as economic resilience.
**What matters more than continuing to hype the nonfarm report next are CPI, core PCE, and November employment data. "加息押注升温" is market pricing, not a Fed commitment.**#BTC spot ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year
I am Mid-term Intelligence Bro, breaking down this set of ETF data:
A cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year indicates that the "safety cushion" for compliant institutional channels in 2026 has basically been exhausted.
But don't just look at the clear numbers: the single-day outflows are highly concentrated in a few products like IBIT, accompanied by a Nasdaq plunge, AI regulatory concerns, and midterm election risk aversion. This is an "event-driven position reduction," not a market-wide panic sell-off.
$BTC price fell below 76,000 but did not crash, indicating spot support is still holding.
Currently: short-term liquidity is tight, sentiment is fearful; if IBIT outflows narrow and the coin price stabilizes, it is a shakeout.
$ETH
$ZEC $CORE November 7: The hard fork recovered 68.15 million tokens, but not a single affected user has received any of them.
b14g was stolen 97.05 million CORE tokens. The hard fork performed a one-time state adjustment, recovering 68,146,177 tokens from addresses controlled by the attacker, accounting for 70.2% of the stolen total. This is verifiable on-chain, data is clean, and the official statement emphasized "no rollback of historical transactions, no token minting, no change to total supply."
Technically, this was a textbook recovery.
But today is already November 7. The recovered 68.15 million tokens are still held in the recovery address. The allocation details have not been released, the official claim channel has not opened, and affected users have not received a single token.
Recovery does not equal return. The hard fork solved "where the tokens are," but not "who the tokens belong to."
The status of the remaining approximately 29 million tokens is even more telling: some were cross-chain swapped and left the Core network before the hard fork execution, thus outside the scope of the hard fork's intervention; the project team has offered a bounty to encourage white-hat returns, but whether funds can be recovered after the deadline is uncertain. A community summary bluntly states: "Don't assume that recovering most tokens means losses are controllable."
And the underlying on-chain economy has not changed at all today because of "recovering 70%."
An analysis on OKX on November 6 separated a set of previously mixed data:
Core chain native DeFi TVL is $3.82 million, on-chain DEX daily volume is $900. The BTC staking assets supporting the BTCFi narrative are locked on the Bitcoin mainnet via CLTV timelocks and have not entered Core chain DeFi contracts.
Two systems. One supports the narrative, the other is the real economy. The real economy is already in shock.
On-chain fee income hovers in the single to double-digit dollar range. To date, no on-chain CORE transfer can be marked as "executed using ecosystem revenue" for buyback narratives. The 68.15 million recovered tokens lie dormant in the recovery address, and on-chain income remains in single digits—both represent the same stagnation.
Validator numbers still lack a unified standard today.
Design calls for 31 seats, elected daily weighted by BTC hashrate, custodied BTC staking, and CORE staking. But the community's latest tracking sees 13, while the Satoshi Plus consensus halt threshold is 15. Regardless of the exact number, the direction is consistent: the buffer zone is in single digits.
The designed 31 seats and the actual number of independent validators running are two different things. Seats can remain vacant.
Bithumb's November 30 date remains a fixed point unaffected by the hard fork.
The delisting reason states "unresolved trading warning issues," not liquidity problems. Withdrawal channels close on December 30. Of 34 exchanges, 21 have delisted. This is a calendar constraint, independent of price charts or how many tokens were recovered.
So what truly matters today is not the price.
The hard fork recovery of tokens is technically a success. But it created a harder-to-fix issue narratively: a public chain with "immutability" as its foundational promise chose a one-time on-chain state modification to recover stolen assets. The official emphasized "no rollback of historical transactions," but the gap between "modifying address balances" and "rollback" is much shorter in terms of trust than technology.
The recovered 68.15 million tokens have not returned to anyone's hands, and the fact that "the ledger can be rewritten" has returned to every holder's valuation.
The price near $0.01 does not answer "where the bottom is." It only records one state: the on-chain real economy is in shock, recovered assets are dormant, validators are shrinking, and exchange lights are turning off one by one. And the recovered 68.15 million lie quietly in an address without allocation rules, waiting for a plan that has yet to be written.
$CORE #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 **My view: Berkshire's focus is on how cash generates returns; a huge cash reserve itself cannot be directly interpreted as "anticipating a drop in the US stock market."**
The Q3 earnings report is expected to be released **tonight (November 7) at 21:00 Beijing time** and should still be viewed as a forward-looking earnings preview.
- **Look at the reasons for cash changes.** As of the end of June, the insurance and other businesses held about **$359.2 billion** in cash, cash equivalents, and US short-term Treasury bonds, net of unsettled purchase payments. A decline in cash may come from investments, acquisitions, or buybacks and should not be directly taken as operational deterioration.
- **See if buybacks continue.** About **$4.8 billion** was repurchased in the first half of the year, mainly in Q2. I am more focused on whether buybacks continue in Q3 and whether the purchase prices are reasonable; a larger buyback amount is not necessarily better.
- **Look at operating profit, and be less swayed by net profit on the books.** The performance of insurance underwriting, railroads, and energy businesses better reflects operational quality, while stock price fluctuations can significantly affect net profit. Another variable is interest rates: if short-term debt yields decline, interest income from the large cash pool will also be under pressure.
**I lean towards its defensive capability, but to form a more positive judgment, we need to see operational growth and reasonable capital allocation; "just having a lot of cash" is not enough to support chasing higher prices.**$IREN
AI cloud revenue nearly triples, so why is IREN still looking at delays?
IREN's latest quarterly AI cloud revenue increased 182% quarter-over-quarter to $200 million, but the company has adjusted the timeline for reaching the $4 billion annualized revenue target to January 2027, possibly delayed until February.
The annualized target is not the revenue for the current quarter, and signing contracts does not equal equipment acceptance. Construction progress determines when revenue recognition begins, while capital expenditures may occur first.
I am focusing on delivery milestones, customer prepayments, and financing implementation. If the new schedule is met on time, there is a foundation for revenue growth; if delays expand or funding gaps increase, expectations for rapid conversion of contract scale into free cash flow should be lowered.The $416 million net outflow of BTC ETFs is not a retreat, but a "net illusion"
Conclusion first: The $416 million net outflow this year is the residual after nearly complete offset between $25.63 billion inflow and $26.05 billion outflow, not a signal of one-way collapse. Reading it as "institutions fled" would misinterpret the structure.
Breaking it down, the main sellers are multi-strategy funds doing basis arbitrage, not directional shorts. Galaxy data shows that 9 institutions including Millennium, Goldman Sachs, and D.E. Shaw collectively reduced about 68,000 BTC, due to futures basis narrowing to only 0.6% above short-term debt, causing mechanical liquidation after arbitrage space disappeared. Meanwhile, total 13F institutional exposure dropped from 355,000 BTC to 307,000 BTC, a 14% decrease, while BTC price fell 53% in the same period — the position reduction is much smaller than the price drop. Bitwise also clearly states: most institutions retained their original positions.
Therefore, the correct interpretation of the $416 million is: ETFs are "beta tools with anytime reducible positions," and the outflow reflects macro risk budget contraction transmission, not an independent bearish vote. What really matters is not the net direction but whether the flow rate is drying up.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 $BTC climbed to 76,000 and took a breather, but ETFs have already lost 1.28 billion in November, with BlackRock pulling out 403 million in just one day on Friday. This rebound is driven by short covering, not institutional returns.
$ETH wavered at 2,248 and couldn't gain momentum, with ETFs bleeding 270 million over the week. Below 2200, there's still a pile of liquidations buried, and the market doesn't even bother to resist.
The $ZEC NU7 upgrade story is over; block time cut to 25 seconds. It surged to 1,375 on Friday but slid back to 1,229 today along with the broader market. The solo rally has paused.
Meme coins don't care about macro trends at all. RELAY surged 9544% in one day, RM rose 1840%, and GM multiplied seven to eight times. All the speculative money is crowded into small caps.
In the A-share market, the "Yang" faction has retreated, and the "Oriental" group is stepping up in batches. A dark line stretches from Sunrise Oriental to Oriental Ocean. Photovoltaic Minfa Aluminum hit five consecutive limit-ups, Yongzhen four, continuing to hold strong. AI short drama Zhejiang Film and Television hit five limit-ups. Agriculture is quietly taking over due to El Niño expectations.
The US stock market saw the Nasdaq rise 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 4.21%, AMD up 11%, Coherent up 13.58%. Chip and optical communication stocks are scrambling to recover, but the Dow was pressed down by the non-farm payrolls, falling 0.46%, showing a clear split.
Money is hiding from ETF outflows on one side while diving into speculative coins and oversold chips on the other, but no heavy bets are being placed anywhere. Two things this week are more worth watching than the coin price.
1. Exchanges hit hard twice. On November 6, the U.S. Treasury cut MEXC off from the U.S. financial system, accusing it of involvement in about $16 billion in illegal transactions related to Iran, Russia, and North Korea (WSJ). On the same day, the Thai SEC filed criminal charges against Bitget and cut off local access starting December 5 (CoinDesk); after Binance's $6.3 billion hack, insurers have begun stricter scrutiny (Reuters).
2. The coin price barely dropped, but leverage changed hands. $BTC current price 75,925, 24h -0.2%, yesterday's low 74,800, a seven-week low; perpetual 24h volume $4.81 billion, 11.9 times the spot volume of $405 million. Open interest on the crash day November 5 dropped from $3.835 billion to $3.608 billion, then rose back to $3.87 billion yesterday, 0.9% higher than before the crash; funding rate dropped from +0.0064% to basically zero. On the same day, U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $530 million.
Conclusion: What decides the wallet is no longer price moves, but where the leverage is and who holds the money.
My three points: ① Large positions split, exchanges only keep 1-2 weeks' worth of volume needed; ② Withdraw small amounts first, wait for 24h confirmation before withdrawing the rest; ③ Keep large amounts in self-custody, don't wait for trouble to think about withdrawing.
Is your crypto on an exchange or in a wallet? If all in one place, what proportion? $BTCNon-farm payrolls showed strong data, but the market first pushed back rate cut expectations
The U.S. added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, exceeding market expectations by about 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. After the data release, the dollar index rose about 0.7% at one point, and the implied market bet on a December rate hike increased from 70% to 78%. Strong employment indicates economic resilience, but for high-valuation assets, it also means interest rates may stay elevated longer.
The pressure on the crypto market is not only from contract liquidations. The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $430.2 million on November 5, narrowing to about $51.7 million outflow on November 6. The selling pressure has clearly eased but has not yet turned into net inflows. $BTC has returned near $76,000; what really needs to be verified is whether spot buying has returned.
I do not simply interpret a strong non-farm report as bearish, nor do I take the narrowing ETF outflow as a bottom-fishing signal. If yields continue to rise and ETFs still see net outflows, the rebound is likely to lack follow-through; if capital flow stops bleeding first, then the market has a foundation for recovery.
What this data truly changes is the market’s imagination about the interest rate path. Will you focus first on the dollar and yields, or on ETF capital flows?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 This is not a reversal, but a technical correction after an oversell. The root cause of the Nasdaq's four consecutive weekly declines is not the election, but the timing mismatch of AI capital expenditure "input—return" that has not yet been fully priced in.
On November 6, the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.2%, and AMD rose over 11%. But looking at the week as a whole, the Nasdaq still fell 3.37%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss, and the S&P 500 recorded its worst single week in over a year. The previous day, the Nasdaq had just plunged 5.52%, its largest single-day drop since April 2025.
The trigger for the plunge was the Democrats taking control of both chambers after the midterm elections, raising market concerns about tighter approvals for AI data centers. But the underlying contradiction runs deeper: even after the pullback, Nvidia's market value still exceeds $4 trillion. "Strong future demand" and "how much equipment to buy now" are two different matters, and some semiconductor segments have already expanded in anticipation of long-term demand. The structure of the rebound also illustrates the issue: chips and computing hardware led the gains, while Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon are still falling — what is being corrected is the oversell, not the narrative. On the interest rate front, October's nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 far exceeded expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December rose to 80%, so the pressure on valuation denominators has not eased. One day of gains cannot change a week's ledger.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% I've been closely watching Big Brother Maji's recent moves, and this time it's the familiar script again: selling $BAYC at a loss to free up capital and going long on $ETH with 25x leverage, currently showing an unrealized loss of $32,000.
In my view, it's no longer just a simple bullish stance on $ETH. He has liquidated multiple times before and keeps cycling through this pattern: robbing Peter to pay Paul to recover losses, topping up margin, and continuing to bet heavily on the long side with high leverage. Essentially, he's trying to rely on a quick rebound to recoup losses from previous contracts and NFTs, gambling on a short-term pump rather than a long-term $ETH position. The 25x leverage leaves almost no room for error; a price drop of just under 4.4% triggers liquidation, concentrating the risk heavily.
The remaining BAYC he holds acts as a backup ammunition reserve for his contract account. If he can't hold on any longer, he will likely sell at a discount, continuously putting downward pressure on BAYC's floor price.
Such large, highly leveraged long positions represent a potential forced liquidation risk for the market. If $ETH continues to decline, his forced liquidation will further crash the market.
Of course, this is just the personal trading behavior of a whale and should not be taken as a bearish signal for $ETH. But for ordinary investors like us, this is a vivid lesson on the risks of high leverage.Reading two news items from the same day together reveals the underlying meaning: The U.S. Treasury sanctions 8 Canadian money service businesses, while the Rewards for Justice program offers up to $20 million for information on Iran's nuclear program. One blocks money, the other buys intelligence.
First, let's see who got sanctioned. Not exchanges, but money service companies that do currency exchange. They conduct business for sanctioned Iranian entities, facilitate the exchange of Iranian rials for digital assets, and help sanctioned Iranian digital asset exchanges and blockchain addresses linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps move funds.
This explains why sanctions target the currency exchange step. When the door to the dollar system closes, fiat can't go out, leaving blockchain as the only outlet. To get rials in and $USDT out on-chain, someone must provide redemption — these Canadian companies are that channel.
But once the channel is named, the chain is exposed. Addresses once flagged can be frozen at the issuer level for stablecoins like $USDT and $USDC; transfers are not beyond control. The sanction targets not a single transaction but the entire redemption channel's credibility.
Assessment: Such news usually has a short-term impact on $BTC prices. What really changes is the friction cost of gray-market exchange — fewer channels, higher premiums, smaller single transaction limits. No immediate reaction needed, but it reminds us of one thing: the stability of stablecoins comes half from reserves and half from their willingness to comply with regulations.
The reward mentioning "possible settlement arrangements" is also worth pondering: they want more than just intelligence.On the monitor, USDC on-chain transaction volume suddenly rose by 49%, but the perfusion pressure of reserve income dropped by 8%—this is not an improvement in cardiac output, but myocardial compensation. Third-quarter revenue and reserve income increased by 17% year-over-year to $865 million, while net operating profit only grew 5% to $226 million, resembling a surgery that superficially stops bleeding but still seeps underneath: circulation volume increased, but oxygen supply to profits did not keep pace.
The real primary issue is not transaction volume but the decline in reserve asset yield. Reserve income decreased by 8% to $658 million, equivalent to a drop in coronary perfusion pressure; no matter how lively on-chain transfers are, they are just stronger peripheral pulses and cannot replace the myocardium's own blood supply. If stablecoin circulation is considered heart rate and reserve yield as stroke volume, the current state is a fast heart rate with weak stroke volume, which in the long term will lead to a heart failure curve characterized by high output and low resistance. More dangerously, the expansion of transaction volume masks the thinning income per unit of blood flow, like stable blood pressure after anesthesia but insufficient tissue perfusion.
Arc blockchain-related token presales contributed $182 million in revenue, supporting the bulk of other business growth, like an emergency bypass: first establishing collateral circulation to restore blood flow to the report. But whether this income is a one-time diversion or sustainable perfusion depends on post-operative drainage volume, inflammation markers, and whether the anastomosis leaks. Mistaking presale income for baseline cardiac output is like treating adrenaline as a long-term inotropic drug—blood pressure looks good short-term, but myocardial oxygen consumption increases; once the presale window closes, the report may suffer reperfusion injury.
The linkage between tokenized US stock targets and Apple tokenized targets is another neural reflex arc. Expansion of stablecoin transaction volume will improve the microcirculation around tokenized stocks, but declining reserve yields will weaken the perfusion pressure of the entire chain; when US stock risk appetite experiences arrhythmia, tokenized targets will first show conduction block, then manifest as hypotension in price. What to watch is not daily price swings but liquidity heart rate variability, the electrocardiographic spectrum of buy-sell order books, and embolism risk from cross-market linkage. The pulse of Apple tokenized targets can be strong, but if the underlying stablecoin's perfusion pressure continues to decline, distal capillaries will also become ischemic.
My judgment: the 49% increase in transaction volume is compensatory tachycardia, while the 8% decline in reserve income is the myocardial ischemia that needs addressing; the $182 million from presales is more like temporary intraoperative pacing, enough to get through this stage, but the long-term survival rate depends on whether the reserve yield curve and real on-chain blood flow can resynchronize. #circleq3usdcvolumeup49%That nonfarm payroll night BTC spike, I happened to be staring blankly at the order book. At the moment the data was released, guess who got taught a lesson by a reversal? US October nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, and December rate hike bets heated up. BTC on the screen first surged then crashed—a typical "give hope first, then take it away" script. I noticed a detail: during this sell-off, the bottom-fishing orders were not very active, buy orders were thin, indicating the market is repricing the interest rate path rather than simply panicking. With rate hike expectations rising and the dollar strengthening, risk assets overall came under pressure. The BTC and Nasdaq futures correlation was especially obvious that night; cross-market funds were reducing exposure based on the same logic. There are also signs on the bullish side: if subsequent inflation data cools down, rate hike bets will quickly retreat, and the oversold rebound elasticity will be large. ETH and some high-beta altcoins often run faster during such expectation reversals. But the risk is that the market is currently pricing in "higher for longer"; if data continues to be hot, rebounds can easily become traps, altcoin liquidity will be drained, and the rhythm will shift from chasing rebounds to defense. My own judgment is: the core of trading that night was not the nonfarm payroll itself, but the interest rate expectations being recalibrated. Cross-market linkage temporarily caused BTC to lose its independent narrative. Don’t rush to catch the falling knife; wait until sentiment and order book structure stabilize before watching again. Market observation notes, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH #Nonfarm #RateHikeExpectations ETF outflows are not about institutions running away; it's Wall Street arbitrage hot money retreating under high-interest pressure, with corporate whales locking positions to drain liquidity. But look, Strive is still aggressively buying, which means the underlying spot chips are all locked up, and the circulating float in the market is getting smaller and smaller. The market has become extremely light, and even a small amount of capital can cause the price to swing wildly.
Look at $BTC, the big coin; right now, it's just existing funds cutting each other down. ETF fees are draining, there's no fresh capital off-exchange, and the overhead trapped positions are as heavy as a mountain. Corporate holdings won't dump the market unless in extreme situations, but this also means there's no new short-term momentum to push the price up. The big coin can only hover and wash around 75,000.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum, always the hopeless follower. Once ETF funds withdraw, Ethereum takes the hardest hit; the ecosystem has no new narrative, and no big corporations are backing it like they do with the big coin. When the market softens even a bit, it falls so hard that even its own mother wouldn't recognize it. Don't try to catch the falling knife after it drops a lot; the bottom is deep and unseen.
Look at $XAUT, gold, this is the real safe haven for funds. With high interest pressure and risk aversion demand, capital either buys U.S. Treasuries for interest or flows into gold. Central bank buying underneath firmly supports it; its certainty and resilience are ten thousand times stronger than the crypto circle. Hold steady for the long term and don't get shaken off.
In summary, don't be fooled by the headlines. ETF outflows are just hot money shifting venues; corporate locked positions are the real blood drain. #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 The December rate hike is not about "whether it will happen," but "whether they dare to raise it fully." The nonfarm payrolls have put the options back on the table, but the real purchasing power of wages is stepping on the Fed's brakes.
October nonfarm payrolls were 165,000, expected 65,000, with the previous two months revised up by a total of 84,000; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, hourly wages rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, all exceeding expectations. The probability of a December rate hike jumped from about 67% to 77%–80%. The dollar surged 0.74% in a single day, and the 2-year US Treasury yield rose about 5–7 basis points.
But what really caps the rate hike ceiling is real wages. With a 3.1% year-over-year increase in hourly wages, and inflation still above that level, the real average hourly wage is still declining. If the Fed raises rates fully in December, it faces a combination of "nominally strong employment but weak real purchasing power"—the rate hike suppresses inflation expectations but may accelerate the transmission of the affordability crisis to the consumer side. The data has tightened the rope by one more notch, but the person at the end of the rope has already shifted to a more fragile position.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Let's talk about this week's BTC
At the beginning of the week, it was still fluctuating around 78,000, and on Wednesday, riding the market rebound after the election, it once surged to 81,000. However, on Thursday, it plunged along with the US stock market, directly dropping back to around 75,000.
On Friday, the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations again, with an increase of 165,000 jobs, and the market's expectation for a rate hike in December clearly intensified.
In the end, $BTC closed near 76,000, down about 2.6% for the week.
I think the most noteworthy aspect this week is the correlation between BTC and the US tech sector, especially when AI trading faced concentrated sell-offs, BTC hardly showed any independence.
The continuous outflow from spot ETFs also made the rebound lack support...
Next week, I remain cautious; 80,000 has shifted from previous support to a position that needs to be contested again.
Before it stabilizes above that level again, I prefer to view any rise as a pullback.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 The Trump family did not liquidate all their Bitcoin.
A media company sold 4,259 $BTC.
They received $343.67 million.
Where did this money come from:
Working backward, $343.67 million divided by 4,259.
About $80,700 per coin.
Not the current price of 75,700.
How is this number calculated:
It shows they sold at a high point, not running away after a drop.
99.99% means basically nothing was left.
One company liquidating does not equal one person liquidating.
The media company and the family finances are two separate accounts.
This is where it’s easy to misunderstand.
Falling to 75,700 was said to be his prediction of regulation.
Liquidation came first, investigation later; the order is reversed.
If you follow this logic, the real concern is who else is still selling.
Remember this first, wait for the next data reconciliation.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 $BTC Electron is a capped mature building, and its launch cadence is its operational track record—each successful orbit insertion is a signed structural acceptance form, proving that this load-bearing system can withstand repeated loads. But what truly determines this company's future skyline is Neutron, a new building still laying its foundation. The revenue guidance of $250 million to $265 million is just the elevation on the construction blueprint; whether it can be realized depends on the concrete mix ratio, rebar tying, and the continuity of pouring, all of which must pass structural calculations. The delivery of space system orders is the phased payment of the curtain wall contract; once acceptance milestones are delayed, the foundation of cash flow will settle.
As an architect, I know one thing very well: no matter how beautiful the drawings are, if site management can't keep up, progress payments will still be held up by the supervisor. Neutron's development progress is not the percentage in press releases but hard metrics like excavation depth of the foundation pit, weld yield rate of the arrow body structure, and the number of engine test runs—each parameter is the cross-sectional size of a load-bearing column; cutting corners will inevitably lead to rework. In the commercial space race, the surface competition is launch frequency, but the foundation is the replicability of manufacturing tooling, supply chain rhythm, and quality systems. Electron has proven this company can build buildings; Neutron must prove it can build taller buildings with less concrete.
Shifting focus to the tokenized asset side. The price linkage of XCH essentially hangs a real-time quoted price tag on this building, but no matter how lively the price tag is, it cannot change the construction milestones of the main structure that have already been completed. Market sentiment is scaffolding that can be dismantled anytime; what truly remains on the blueprint are the structural topping-out date and delivery acceptance forms. If Neutron's first flight milestone is postponed or if there are batch delays in the delivery acceptance of space system orders, it means the foundation's load-bearing capacity is insufficient, and no matter how beautiful the facade, reinforcement must be done. Conversely, a stable Electron launch cadence, Neutron's key tests passing sequentially, and delivery orders being signed off one by one—these three things are the vertical load-bearing system being loaded layer by layer.
When I review drawings, I never look at how flashy the renderings are; I only check whether those hidden structural columns in the structural engineering section have been secretly removed. This company's hidden columns are the turnover efficiency of launch pads, the density of Neutron's reflight verification, and the yield curve of space system capacity ramp-up. If any one of these three hidden columns is under-reinforced, the entire building's seismic rating must be downgraded.
The numbers on the price tag can be refreshed overnight, but the concrete curing period cannot be shortened by a single day. #rocketlabq3neutronBrothers, daily mainstream altcoin quick report
$XRP $1.171 | $SOL $89.8 | $DOGE $0.0718
XRP is the weakest in this wave. It dropped more than 3% in 24 hours, once hitting around 1.1799 intraday, with about $30 million long positions taken off in five days. The price has fallen below all key moving averages, with 1.1588 as the next key support; breaking it may accelerate the decline. Interestingly, Ripple's own revenue is expected to reach $900 million, with acquisitions and banking licenses progressing, but XRP holders do not receive these benefits. The company's growth and token price are decoupling.
SOL is moving close to the 200-day moving average at 89.06. The current price is 89.8, barely above this long-term line. Binance accounts are 78.2% long, top traders are 80.6% bullish, but open interest contracts dropped 3.36% in 24 hours, indicating longs are retreating, not increasing.
DOGE is holding up only due to meme sector rotation. It rose slightly by 0.6% in 24 hours, but volume plummeted 48% to $456 million, with no new funds coming in. 0.0702 is the recent low; if it holds, DOGE will grind in a narrow range between 0.0702-0.0752; if broken, look for 0.0677.
Discuss in the comments, is the decoupling of XRP's company growth and token price an undervalued risk?👇
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 🔥 BTC suddenly plummets! Four major negative factors resonate, the market is not truly safe yet!
This round of decline is not just an issue within the crypto circle itself; there are four noteworthy factors behind it.
🔴 US stocks under pressure: Concerns about an AI bubble intensify, with the Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors collectively weakening. Tech stocks like Nvidia and AMD face pressure, and risk capital begins to withdraw.
🟠 Institutional moves: Trump Media transferred about $343 million BTC to Crypto.com-related addresses, sparking market worries about potential sell-offs, but it cannot be confirmed that sales have occurred yet.
🟡 Macro pressure: Rising oil prices reignite inflation concerns, suppressing rate cut expectations, and high-risk assets come under pressure.
🔵 Leverage liquidation: BTC loses key support levels, triggering massive long liquidations, and the chain sell-off further amplifies the decline.
🎯 My view: This time it’s a combined effect of external risks and internal leverage. No rush to bottom-fish in the short term, nor blindly short. Focus on whether US stocks can stabilize and if BTC can reclaim key support.
⚠️ Risk reminder: News may fluctuate repeatedly; beware of a secondary drop and reverse spikes. Control your position size and wait for the market to give a clear direction!
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Today let's talk about the Democratic Party's attitude toward crypto when in power and its impact.
Looking back, the $BTC spot ETF was approved and launched during the Democratic administration cycle. Their approach is not to outright ban crypto but rather to bring the entire industry under a regulatory framework, requiring licensed operations and following a standardized path. If this standardization continues to advance, institutional funds will find it easier to enter, which is beneficial for compliant crypto integration in the long run.
But don't interpret the Democratic Party as purely crypto-friendly; their regulatory approach is more of a multilateral crackdown. They prefer to work with allies to set rules and are very strict on privacy coins, mixing services, offshore exchanges, and U.S. user access. Many of these restrictions, once legislated, are hard to repeal in the long term. Recently, $HYPE and many crypto projects being targeted are typical examples of this regulatory approach.
Now, about the Republican side and Trump: early on, Trump’s stance on crypto was wavering, indeed causing liquidity drains and sudden policy changes. But later, to win votes, he actively embraced crypto, promising a friendly environment for the industry. A large amount of crypto funds bet on him, and his meme coins and related industry chain are an important narrative in this market wave. His biggest characteristic is extreme policy volatility—sometimes suppressing, sometimes courting crypto, not one-sided.
Ultimately, regulatory crackdowns on crypto won’t vanish just because the party in power changes. In trading, the market will still ultimately depend on interest rates, dollar liquidity, and real capital inflows.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $ETH #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向
Berkshire's cash and short-term Treasury holdings hit a historic peak of $397.38 billion in Q1 2026, up from $373 billion at the end of 2025. But more noteworthy is that a turning point has appeared: by the end of Q2, cash dropped to $365.5 billion, ending the previous trend of consecutive quarterly increases.
This is not a passive accounting fluctuation but a systematic shift in capital allocation rhythm since Abel took over. Buybacks in Q1 were only $234 million, then surged to $4.5 billion in Q2, marking the largest single-quarter buyback in five years; at the same time, it ended a 14-quarter streak of net stock sales, with nearly $20 billion net purchases in Q2, and completed two acquisitions: OxyChem ($9.4 billion) and Taylor Morrison ($6.8 billion). Cash is being simultaneously deployed along three paths: secondary market equity, share buybacks, and entity acquisitions.
The core market divide has also emerged: one side views this as rational deployment within a valuation window, while the other worries Abel lacks Buffett-style extreme patience. The real signal from the earnings report is not how much cash remains, but how steep the slope is from "hoarding" to "utilization."$BTC Brothers, BTC is repeatedly tugging between 75,000 and 76,000, showing resilience, but I remain bearish. Among the whale positions, short accounts clearly dominate, about 966 short whales versus 310 long whales, with a short position volume of 3.2B, average entry price at 75,579, right near the current price, so there is significant selling pressure above. On the 4-hour chart, the price is still suppressed by the descending trendline, MA20 is above at 77,591, and the Bollinger middle band is also pressing down; the sideways movement looks more like a bearish consolidation rather than a bottom formation. 74,800 is temporarily holding, which easily creates the illusion of "not falling further," attracting dip buyers to catch the knife; short-term resistance is at 76,300, and a rebound is unlikely to happen all at once. If 74,800 breaks down with volume, the downside space could open directly. My personal view: this wave of volatility looks more like grinding down short-sellers' patience and a setup to trap longs before a dump, so don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% After reading, I noted three things. My first reaction was not "XMR is going to rise," but that the fee rate exposes the market's level of congestion: the more exaggerated the number, the more the time cost borne by leveraged players cannot be ignored.
1. Currently, in Hyperliquid perpetual contracts, the XMR funding rate is 0.0372% per hour, annualized about 326%, and shows -0.88% over 24 hours; a positive rate means longs pay shorts. In the same data, kPEPE is -0.0053% per hour, annualized about -46%, and -3.16% over 24 hours, with a clearly opposite direction.
2. My judgment is that the high XMR fee rate is more like a "long crowding warning" and cannot be directly taken as a bullish confirmation for now. The reason is simple: if the fee rate stays high, the longer the position is held, the heavier the funding cost; once sentiment cools, the crowded side is more likely to feel pressure first.
3. For ordinary users, the value of this information is not to guess the next candlestick but to remind themselves not to look only at the price. Funding rates, holding periods, and leverage costs should be considered together; the negative fee rate of kPEPE also indicates that sentiment differs across contracts.
My conclusion is: extreme fee rates are better suited as a risk thermometer rather than a standalone directional signal. What would you add as a fourth point to this information?The external market is stirring, let's take a quick look
On the US stock side, after the midterm elections, tech stocks were collectively sold off, with the Nasdaq dropping 5.52% in one day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 12%, and the VIX soaring nearly 70%. The sentiment around AI contagion is spreading. On the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite closed at 3,689, hovering just below 3,700, while on 11/06 the Hong Kong stocks mostly fell with few gains, and the Hang Seng Tech Index is still waiting for a catalyst. The Asia-Pacific region is also cautious; in Hang Seng futures, unpopular sectors like oil & gas and textiles surprisingly bucked the trend and pulled up, as the market gets tense and everyone first tries to preserve their principal. The external markets are all in risk-off mode, which ironically makes $ETH's support look a bit more valuable — despite the poor sentiment, 2,205 held firm.
Where the smart money stands is clearest in the chart
This capital flow chart makes it clear: $ETH positions saw a cumulative net inflow of +25.3M; after a panic-driven withdrawal of 540.6M on 11/06, 146.2M was replenished in the early hours of 11/07, indicating someone was buying at the support level; $BTC meanwhile had a cumulative net outflow of -208.2M, with a heavy single-day net outflow of 575.6M on 11/06, showing a clear contrast between the two. The fee rate best reveals the holders' temperament: $ETH is now at +0.007%, meaning longs are willing to pay to hold overnight while shorts are nervous — this signal often appears at the start of a rebound. The conclusion is straightforward — go long on $ETH, avoid $BTC, and follow where the smart money goes.$XRP had 418.5 million tokens withdrawn from Binance in one day, the highest in nine months ≠ whales hoarding coins waiting for a pump
The withdrawal happened on November 4th Eastern US time, closing around $1.31 that day.
Three days later, OKEx spot price is reported at $1.17, down more than 10%.
The withdrawal only means the coins changed locations.
It could be a large holder moving to their own wallet, or just an internal transfer within the exchange; on-chain data can't reveal who received them or why.
In the same week, the US XRP spot fund had minor outflows only on Monday, with no inflows the other four days.
If coins were truly being hoarded, the price wouldn't drop while withdrawals happen. Without buying support, moving chips can't sustain the price.#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
165,000, slapped the market's face hard
Wow, as soon as the October nonfarm payrolls came out, I stared at the screen dumbfounded for two seconds. 165,000. What was the expectation? 65,000. A full 100,000 difference. Wasn't employment supposed to cool down? Wasn't AI supposed to eat up white-collar jobs? Bam, the data slapped us in the face, scorching hot.
The unemployment rate also dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Even more frustrating, the data for the previous two months was revised upward as well: August from 133,000 to 186,000, September from 29,000 to 60,000, a total of 84,000 extra jobs added in two months. So all those previous notions of a "loosening labor market" were just illusions.
The market reaction was straightforward. The US dollar index shot up on the spot, rising 0.74% in a single day to close at 102.3, the strongest day in five months. US Treasuries were hammered, with the two-year yield jumping 7 basis points at once, and the ten-year touching 4.89%. Gold was the worst hit, plunging intraday without even a splash. In plain language: money is voting with its feet, the December rate hike is unavoidable.
On the CME side, the numbers jumped faster than a heartbeat. Before the data, the probability of a rate hike in December was fluctuating between 67% and 75%. Once the report dropped, it surged directly above 80%, even touching 85% intraday. Traders even moved the timing of the next rate hike forward, from June to April. They might still say "let's wait and see the inflation data," but their positions have already been adjusted.
$BTC 🚨 DOGE's thirteen-year history tells us: after a crash, is there still a miracle?
If you think Dogecoin has no hope now, take a look at its past performance.
It crashed about 56% in 2014, but surged over 3900% in 2017!
It crashed again about 74% in 2018, then saw an annual increase of over 3500% in 2021!
It dropped about 59% in 2022, rebounded over 250% in 2024, and then fell about 63% in 2025.
This is the truest side of DOGE: wild surges, brutal pullbacks, and repeating cycles.
But don’t be fooled by the historical average returns. Huge gains in a few years significantly raise the average, and most investors may not catch the market moves.
I still believe DOGE is worth long-term observation, but the next big rally requires new capital, market sentiment, and real-world applications working together—not just relying on past stories.
The real question isn’t how many times DOGE has risen before, but why the next round of capital would choose it again.
Do you think Dogecoin’s biggest rebound is already behind us, or yet to come?
#DOGE #Dogecoin Not investment advice