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Moscow Exchange Launches Crypto Trading: A Compliance Increment, Not a Major Bull Run
On December 1, Moscow Exchange will list BTC, ETH, and USDT, with trading hours from 06:50 to 23:50 Moscow time. Clearing will be handled by the National Settlement Depository, with same-day or next-day settlement, and swap tools provided to manage liquidity. Retail investors must pass a test first and can buy up to 300,000 rubles (about 3,700 USD) worth of crypto assets per year through a single broker; there is no limit for qualified investors. The outlook is neutral to slightly bullish, but there is a clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Russia integrating crypto assets into mainstream securities trading infrastructure effectively opens a compliant entry channel for domestic funds, representing an incremental increase for local BTC and ETH buying and practical use cases for USDT. However, the quota cap positions it as a controlled market with limited retail capacity, making it difficult to generate a global-scale capital surge in the short term.
A greater risk to watch: Moscow Exchange and the National Settlement Depository were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in June 2024, and since USDT is issued by Tether and can freeze wallets on sanction lists, holding USDT on this platform carries a real risk of passive freezing.
My view: Treat this as a mid-term tracking item for Russia’s compliance narrative rather than a reason to chase gains; for the USDT part, prioritize monitoring custody and on-chain freezing paths, and do not consider the quota-limited, sanction-affected buying as the main market driver.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Bitcoin spot prices have experienced a double severe shock over the past week—first, a major exchange disclosed a historic security breach involving $6.3 billion, followed by the 2026 U.S. midterm elections ending with an unexpected Democratic sweep of both the House and Senate. Despite a technical correction of about 10% from the September peak, Bitcoin still demonstrates strong buying support within the core support range of $76,000 to $78,000. Speculative chips have been deeply cleansed. On-chain data shows a drastic reset in market position structure. The profit supply ratio of short-term holders once surged to an extremely greedy level above 97.5% in early October, but has now plummeted to about 38%, indicating that the vast majority of recent buyers are currently at a floating loss, and the previously accumulated speculative bubble has been fully digested. Bitcoin is currently precisely retesting the key breakout level from August with increased volume. The real market average of active investors is around $77,700, and the cost line for short-term holders is near $75,700, both providing technical buffers below the spot price. As long as Bitcoin remains steadily above these core averages, the upward structure built since August remains intact. Leverage has been cleared, and short squeeze fuel is accumulating. This round of correction has thoroughly cleaned out the high-leverage long positions accumulated since August, significantly reducing systemic risk from cascading liquidations and panic selling. Meanwhile, short positions above the market are expanding counter-trend, with the largest cluster of forced short liquidations densely concentrated near the $87,000 level, closely overlapping with the September peak. Once the priceA quick overview of the current crypto situation. $ETH: Spot ETF saw a net outflow of 1.61 billion in October, RWA dropped another 2.6 billion; at Devcon, developers openly criticized, community fractures exposed, 72% of supply still under quantum-resistant migration pressure. On the technical side, block time confirmed to shrink to 12 seconds, a rare consolation. $BTC: After the election, it bounced past 80,000, liquidating 300 million shorts; but regulation is stalled by the election, Riot sold nearly 79% of holdings to shift to AI, hashrate price dropped 17.54% pressuring miners, hacker incidents also dampened sentiment. $SOL: Schroders' 1.1 trillion asset management went on-chain, monthly transactions hit a record 3.38 billion, over 1000 days without interruption, Stripe stablecoin payments launched, SKR repurchased and burned 1.2 million; unfortunately, hackers laundered 81% of stolen SOL via THORChain. Mid-term ranking: SOL has stronger fundamentals, BTC continues to grind, ETH first endures capital outflows. Hold your chips steady and wait for the market to turn. (Don’t rush to take sides, watch the data first!) #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 Can you still hold CORE? Three data points tell you whether to run or hold
Many holders are torn inside: should they keep holding or exit directly? No need to rely on feelings, focus on the following three core data sets. 📊 Three key observation data 1. Bithumb is about to delist trading; if more exchanges follow, trading volume will continue to shrink, order book depth will thin, and large sell orders will cause slippage to expand sharply. ✅ Judgment: If liquidity continues to deteriorate, prioritize reducing positions. Once liquidity dies, even if there is unrealized profit on paper, it will be hard to cash out. 2. Token supply pressure: block rewards have been continuously released for 81 years, constantly adding new chips, and long-term inflationary selling pressure will not disappear. Currently, there is no rigid burn mechanism to hedge supply. ✅ Judgment: The supply issue has no solution and will continue to suppress the coin price long-term, making it difficult to enter a major bull market. 3. Ecosystem value capture data: on-chain Gas revenue is minimal, BTC staking business is operating genuinely, but the yield is hard to transmit to the CORE token; meanwhile, Babylon and Merlin keep dividing the BTCFi sector market share, and ecosystem growth is below expectations. ✅ Judgment: The narrative remains, but fundamentals cannot support the valuation; this is a typical case of the business surviving while the token is under pressure. 👉 Suitable for gradual exit: liquidity continues to worsen, no implemented buyback and burn plan, TVL keeps declining; if any two conditions are met, do not keep hoping for a reversal. 👉 Can gamble with a small position: limited to a very small position, must simultaneously have: delisting wave stops, real burn implemented, and BTCFi sector sees a comprehensive major rally #美国中选改变美伊预期，布伦特跌破95美元
Brothers, with the midterm election boot dropping, the oil market has directly turned upside down. Brent crude plunged 8.67% in a single day, closing at $94.62, hitting an intraday low of $93.22, retreating over $20 from the October 30 high of $114.29 in just three trading days.
The logic is simple: the geopolitical premium has been "squeezed out."
The Democrats took both chambers, Senate leader Schumer directly stated "the Iran war must end," and clearly intends to use funding powers to block the White House's war budget. Vice President Pence even blamed the Republican defeat directly on this war. The market sees that Trump's room to escalate the conflict is locked down, and the previous over $20 premium betting on war expansion has been completely wiped out in three days.
But don't think the oil market is peaceful now. The Democrats truly controlling the "purse strings" won't happen until January next year, while the White House might accelerate actions before the new Congress is sworn in. Meanwhile, U.S. distillate inventories have dropped to the lowest since 2003, and the supply side's tight balance remains unchanged.
The oil price center shifts down in the short term, but the geopolitical volatility has not been fully resolved. The midterm election changed expectations but did not change reality. $BTC $ETH $SOL Attention CORE dollar-cost averaging investors: Adding positions at this point might mean you're catching falling knives
Many dollar-cost averaging investors see the price has dropped significantly and start continuously adding positions to lower their average cost. However, continuing to dollar-cost average in the current environment essentially means repeatedly catching falling knives❌ 1. Bithumb delisting event impacts liquidity: CORE trading stopped on November 30, and withdrawal channels closed on December 30. If other exchanges follow suit, market depth will shrink further, and the risk of slippage when selling will sharply increase in the future. 2. Continuous block reward release for 81 years, with a constant influx of new tokens suppressing the price long-term; the original burn mechanism has been adjusted, and fees are no longer used for deflationary burns, leaving the token lacking intrinsic value support. 3. Intense competition in the BTCFi sector, with Babylon and Merlin continuously capturing funds; CORE ecosystem growth falls short of expectations, and narrative benefits have long faded. 🎯 Dollar-cost averaging suits fundamentally solid assets that can generate cash flow over the long term, but it is not suitable for narrative tokens facing liquidity crises and tokenomics flaws. Persisting with dollar-cost averaging here only increases your position size, and once stuck in a zombie market, funds will be locked for a long time, incurring huge opportunity costs. 💡 Signals suitable for restarting dollar-cost averaging ✅ The exchange delisting wave stops, and liquidity no longer deteriorates ✅ Project implements verifiable buyback/burn plans to hedge long-term inflation ✅ On-chain TVL and active users recover, attracting sector funds again 💡 Takeaway: Don't rely solely on the mindset of "buy more when the price drops more." The sharp drop in the US stock market 📉, as long as the US stock market crashes, no financial market can remain unaffected. Today, Bitcoin's rebound was directly dragged down, $BTC directly drew a door (sharp drop). Previous posts have been reminding to build positions and buy spot. This round might replicate the 2020 trend, violently dumping to harvest until the last wave before starting the next round of market movement. This round will not replicate the previous round's pattern of pulling back to the neckline and then stretching.I suddenly realized, after the past US midterm elections, when Bitcoin hit bottom and when it rebounded
2014: hit bottom after 71 days, then the market started to rise.
2018: hit bottom after 39 days, then the market started to rise.
2022: hit bottom after 13 days, then the market started to rise.
Yesterday, Bitcoin rose from $77,000 to around $81,000, then today it dropped to about $75,500. Technically, this is normal, possible, and not absurd.
2026: How many days do you think it will take to hit bottom before the market starts to rise?CORE Holders Self-Test: Can Your Position Withstand Another 70% Drop?
Many people buy the dip assuming "it has already dropped so much, the downside is limited," but CORE still has the potential for a significant further decline. It's worth asking yourself first: if the price drops another 70%, can you handle it?
❌ The Root Risks Remain Unresolved
Inflation pressure from token releases has persisted for 81 years, on-chain yields are hard to pass on to the token, the BTCFi sector is split between Babylon and Merlin, and liquidity is gradually shrinking. These core issues have no substantial solutions yet. A huge historical drop does not mean it can't fall further.
🎯 3 Self-Test Questions
1. If it drops another 70%, will this loss directly affect your living expenses? If yes, your position is too heavy and you need to reduce exposure immediately to avoid risk.
2. If the price continues to slowly decline or consolidate at the bottom over the next two to three years, can you hold on and resist the urge to keep buying the dip?
3. If exchanges further delist trading pairs and liquidity dries up, causing large sell orders to suffer massive slippage, can you accept the difficulty of exiting smoothly?
💡 Insight
Don't judge the bottom solely by the size of the drop. For tokens like this, the safest rule is: only invest money you can afford to lose entirely without concern. If you can't handle further deep declines, you shouldn't continue holding or adding to your position now. On November 5, a former FBI agent pleaded guilty to telecom fraud and money laundering. Prosecutors said he used wallet credentials collected during investigations to steal about $2.47 million in cryptocurrency.
What’s even more notable is the scope: these credentials involved 35 separate investigations, through which he completed about 100 fraudulent transfers. The affected wallets were not only those of suspects but also wallets controlled by hostile nation-state actors, as well as wallets the FBI itself created for operations. It wasn’t just money that was compromised, but multiple investigation leads, intelligence sources, and methods.
The mechanism is simple. Ownership of on-chain assets is essentially a set of credentials that can sign transactions. Whoever holds the credentials can transfer funds; there is no counter, no review, no second signature. KYC, risk control, and compliance checks guard against external accounts; once credentials leak internally, all these safeguards are bypassed. And on-chain transfers are irreversible, so by the time the theft is discovered, the assets are already elsewhere.
So this is not a vulnerability of any single platform but a common weak point of all centralized trust: when you entrust assets to a process, the people within that process become your actual custodians. The more valuable $BTC and $ETH become, the greater the temptation at this position.
One point to consider: he will be sentenced on March 4, 2027, with a maximum of 20 years. Accountability takes three years, but transferring $2.47 million only takes a few minutes. This speed gap is the hardest challenge for the industry to fix.Review of the timing patterns for bottoms during midterm election years
1. 2018 (rate hike cycle not yet ended)
Stage pre-election low: late October; the final true bottom was delayed until after the election (end of December)
2. 2022 (rate hike expectations marginally peaked)
Full-year bottom: mid-October (about 3 weeks before the election), bottom formed early, rebound confirmed after the election
1. If following the 2022-style pre-election bottom:
First a quick pullback, hitting a stage low in mid-October, then quickly stabilizing and rebounding
2. If following the 2018-style, October is only a stage low, the second wave of decline comes after the November election, and the lowest point of the year appears in December
Just a personal 💡 share~ Not investment advice
@八佰哥爱理财 Take a look at this… Preserving capital and holding on is the only chance. Why is it said that CORE being "neither dead nor alive" is the worst outcome?
Many people think: as long as it doesn't directly go to zero, there is still hope. But for holders, being stuck in a zombie state of neither dead nor alive for a long time is often more tormenting than a one-time crash to zero❌ A one-time crash to zero: the pain is instantaneous, investors can quickly accept the loss, cut their losses completely and exit, freeing both funds and emotions. But being neither dead nor alive is a prolonged drain: the chain still produces blocks, the token still has minimal trading, giving the illusion that "there is still hope for a reversal," yet the market never really recovers🎯 1 Funds are locked for a long time, opportunity cost is extremely high, with 81 years of continuous inflation releasing chips, combined with competitors continuously diverting funds, making it hard to have a big market move. Funds trapped in CORE miss other opportunities in the sector, draining year after year. 2 Liquidity slowly shrinks, exit barriers get higher and higher, trading volume becomes thinner and thinner, exchanges gradually delist trading pairs, and selling later will incur huge slippage. The longer it goes, the harder it is to get out, slowly evolving from "shallow losses" to completely having value but no market.
3 Constantly breeding illusions, repeatedly tempting retail investors to add positions and bottom-fish, because the project is not completely dead, occasional small rebounds and positive rumors appear, continuously luring holders to keep adding and lowering their cost basis, the more they add, the heavier the position, and losses keep expanding💡 What investors fear most is not a clear death signal, but this half-dead illusion. When the project's fundamentals cannot improve and inflationary selling pressure persists, relying only on the chain still running to support the market, beware of falling into a long-term zombie trap.Global markets just staged a rally that looked, on the surface, like relief at the removal of uncertainty. US equities, gold and $BTC all climbed together, and the easy explanation wrote itself: the bad news had become good news, and the world exhaled. That reading misses the mechanism entirely. The clearer signal came from JD Vance, who framed the defeat bluntly: the war was lost because conflict pushed oil prices higher and drove inflation up, a point he said even Trump acknowledged. Once markCORE's BTC staking is real, but the token being worthless is also true
Many retail investors are attracted by CORE's Bitcoin staking narrative, but there is a very critical disconnect here: the BTC staking business truly exists, yet this system does not transmit ecological value to the CORE token itself. ✅Fact: The Core chain has indeed implemented a non-custodial BTC staking function, allowing users to stake Bitcoin to earn returns. The BTC staking at the technical level is not false advertising, and this was the foundation for it to brand itself as BTCFi initially. 1 The value generated by staking 1 BTC is difficult to capture in the CORE token. Although staking CORE is required to obtain higher-tier staking rewards, the ecosystem's fees and staking income are not designed with a rigid mechanism for continuous repurchase and burning of CORE. 2 The token has a continuous release period of 81 years, with ongoing inflationary selling pressure continuously diluting holders' equity. Even if BTC staking is operating within the ecosystem, the supply pressure of new tokens exists long-term. 3 Competition in the sector intensifies, with Baby and Merl diverting a large amount of BTCFi funds; combined with liquidity shrinkage and some exchanges delisting trading pairs, this further suppresses the token price. A painful phenomenon: the on-chain BTC staking business is still running, but the market value of the CORE token continues to decline, resulting in a split scenario where the business is alive but the token keeps depreciating. When investing in narrative-driven projects, it is essential to distinguish: whether the project function is real ≠ whether the token has value support. The business can be real, but if the token economic model design is lackingSpot $BTC ETF has seen a cumulative net redemption of 1.042 billion in this round, with total net assets shrinking to 98.1 billion, showing a clear outflow on the ETF side.
Looking at the capital flow: Strategy bought 811 $BTC, spending 65.5 million; meanwhile, it repurchased preferred shares worth 208 million.
Calculating the net: 208 million minus 65.5 million, a net withdrawal of about 140 million. The scale of coin purchases is actually lower than the buyback.
This indicates that the treasury's increased holdings are more like position adjustments, not new external funds; sporadic buy orders cannot support the ETF outflow.
$BTC has been fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000, with weak support. To break through the 80,000 mark, sustained capital inflow is needed.
$BTC Risk capital is still willing to rush into small-cap tokens to chase gains in a dollar-strong environment, but the cash-out pressure concentrates at 0.354, causing the price to fall back to 0.2655, with an intraday low reaching 0.252. The slight intraday gain masks the unrealized losses on these high-chasing positions. There is a long-observed correlation between a strong dollar and the cashing out of highly elastic altcoins; this chain cannot be defined as a causal driver but merely raises the threshold for risk asset liquidation. During periods of dollar strength, capital compresses the risk budget allocated to thematic tokens, whose price increases heavily depend on continuous inflows of incremental hot money. After external liquidity preference tightens, high-position chips are more likely to choose to exit and realize profits. Positions trapped at high levels need to first see an environment improvement brought by a shift toward dollar easing to have a chance for recovery; a single token's own buying pressure rarely can independently counteract cross-market risk contraction. The expected real interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds forms a second cross-market transmission path. During phases of rising rate expectations, the valuation framework for forward premium assets continues to compress. CARDS pricing carries a large amount of forward premium driven by thematic narratives and is more sensitive to changes in rate expectations than mainstream crypto assets. Rate expectations only change the premium level the market is willing to pay; they are not the direct trigger for this round's peak pullback. When rate expectations adjust downward, the market is willing to assign higher valuation space to thematic assets, giving high-position trapped holdings a chance to reduce losses through risk appetite recovery; if rate expectations continue to rise, each rebound will encounter more proactive cash-out pressure, and the rebound space will be continuously suppressed.This morning I saw "Nasdaq 100 expected to lose $1.8 trillion," and my first reaction was: How can a single vote burn so much money out of thin air?
Then I realized, this money isn't actually in anyone's account; it's always been tied to the idea that "AI data centers will keep being built." Now someone is telling the market that this might not get approved, and once that thought loosens, the money disappears.
Every time $BTC drops, everyone looks for bad news, but in most cases, it turns out the expectation collapsed, not that someone actually dumped the market. Don't rush to bottom-fish yet; see if the $1.8 trillion is panic or a repricing.Many people skimmed past this breaking news: The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to lose $1.8 trillion today. What triggered this is not earnings reports or the Federal Reserve, but an expectation — a Democratic landslide victory that could hinder AI data center construction.
This statement deserves a closer look. The past two years of U.S. stock market gains have largely been bet on AI capital expenditures. Chips, servers, electricity, cooling, land — the entire chain is supported by the same phrase: computing power is never enough, data centers must always be built. The companies with the largest weights in the Nasdaq 100 have valuations that include this incremental growth.
So the $1.8 trillion lost is not profit, but imagination. What the market fears is the phrase "unable to build" — data centers are capital-intensive, long-cycle, and heavily regulated businesses. Where the power comes from, whether land permits are approved, whether environmental assessments pass — if any link is blocked, the capex curve must be revised downward. When capex is cut, valuations collapse first, not current earnings.
What does this mean for the crypto market? $BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq index fluctuates, but its relationship with risk appetite has never broken. When the AI narrative weakens, the first to suffer are altcoins and computing power tokens propped up by the AI concept; mainstream assets like $ETH and $SOL are more dragged down by liquidity, their own fundamentals remain intact.
One point worth considering: if AI data centers are truly blocked by political cycles, the premise of "computing power scarcity" will actually be reinforced. Short-term valuation cuts and long-term pricing are two different things; these are not contradictory, just different time scales.The most vulnerable aren't actually BTC, but those small-cap coins that seem to "stop falling." Are you sure that's really the bottom, and not the starting point of the next downhill? This feeling was especially obvious when watching the market today: BTC and ETH still have big money willing to buy at key levels, while the rebounds of several small-cap coins have volume as thin as a layer of fog, dispersing at the slightest breeze. Let's start with AKE, whose price is slipping down every day, dropping a little each day like a dull knife cutting flesh, yet some still think "it must be the bottom after falling so much." The problem is, the real bottom of altcoins is never formed by falling, but by accumulation of buy orders. Now the chips are so scattered and trapped, with all the people above waiting to break even—who will pull it up? Who will buy when it rises? Not to mention the tail risk of delisting hanging over it, blindly bottom-fishing in this structure has extremely low cost-effectiveness. BEAT is even more interesting, moving sideways at a high level, as if waiting for people to get on board. This pattern indeed easily reminds people of the previous script of rising high then consolidating before moving again, but sideways movement itself does not necessarily mean upward. If there are many orders below trying to catch a rebound, it might instead become fuel for a breakdown. Sideways is a neutral signal, not a bullish one, which many people confuse. FOGO is a standard small rebound in a downtrend. After falling for so long, a single bullish candle makes people want to rush in, but it is more likely just washing out short-term short positions chasing the fall; the signal of trend reversal has not yet appeared. Looking at these three together, you can actually sense the change in capital preference: big coins still have support, small coins are left only with speculation. When risk appetite contracts, capital is not spread evenly but goes to places with higher certainty I happened to see Brother Ba Bai's position, losing $3.81 million and still adding to the long positions. I think I understand this strategy now.
The account is indeed eye-catching: a cumulative loss of over $3.81 million, a return of -86.78%, and a win rate of only 10.9% in the last 30 days. At its peak, four accounts lost more than 30 million, and now they are slowly recovering.
The positions are heavily long, with three trades totaling $4.54 million. Two $BTC trades: the old position at 67701 has an unrealized profit of 375%, the new position at 77997 has an unrealized profit of 59%; one ETH trade at 2289 with an unrealized profit of 94%. Leverage ranges from 17 to 20 times, the margin rate is at least 943%, the liquidation price is empty, and the account is far from liquidation.
The idea is to buy on dips, buy more as the price falls, and split the positions. Not aiming for a high win rate, tolerating multiple losses, and relying on big trades to recover losses; the 67701 trade was picked up during a big drop and has been held until now.
Positioning sense and margin discipline are real skills. But the -86% also shows the old problem remains: from earning $1.59 million to losing $3.83 million, winning but not withdrawing, and giving back even more. There is also a BTC full position at 19x leverage, most afraid that a single spike could drag down the entire account.
The market also suits his style: BTC holding around 80000, $ETH recovering, SOL weaker, ZEC the most volatile. He only trades BTC and ETH, which is somewhat restrained. Tonight the Bank of England rate decision and initial jobless claims, tomorrow night the nonfarm payrolls; if it really crashes, he will most likely keep adding.
#索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ A trader kept raising the average price on $ETH from 2300 to 2343, but chose to hold firm without cutting losses during the drop to 2225. Now, even with the rebound, he is still being suppressed, with an unrealized loss of $160,000. More striking is his confession: it's not that he doesn't want to exit, but that he is unwilling to add more margin and increase his position, fearing forced liquidation. This statement reveals the most genuine current sentiment — the bulls are not unafraid, but too scared to act. 😰 Here lies a structural signal overlooked by most: the real risk is not the unrealized loss itself, but that position management has failed. Opening at 2300 and adding at 2343 pushed the cost higher by his own hand; failing to stop loss at 2225 shows the decision-making chain has shifted from "judging direction" to "resisting the market." When a trader starts consoling himself with "the unrealized loss is okay," it often means he is mentally preparing for the next forced exit. $BTC not opening a short position yesterday was called "lucky" by him, which ironically exposes the same problem: the scenario of two positions under pressure is just one step away from playing out. Even more intriguing is his handling of $ZEC. Although he sensed the market was off and closed the short, he shorted again because "volume didn't keep up," only to get stuck. This is not an isolated case but the most typical trap in the current market: using volume as a confirmation signal, yet repeatedly getting slapped in an environment of shrinking liquidity. Volume lags price, and by the time it "catches up," the best positions are gone. The painful rebound of $ETH is precisely because bears and bulls are exhausting each other in the same market move. My judgment is, this kind of trading...Overnight, the US stock market closed up 1.6%, but semiconductors were under pressure against the trend: Micron, SanDisk, and Marvell all fell more than 7%, and Nvidia also followed down. On the surface, it looks like sector rotation, but behind it seems more like the market is repricing the "expansion speed" of AI infrastructure.
The trigger came from the US midterm elections. The Democrats won the Texas governor's race, and the new governor previously advocated pausing new data center approvals until a stricter regulatory framework is implemented. This means that a previously favorable assumption embedded in AI chip valuations—that tech giants would continue high capital expenditures and data centers would expand smoothly—is now facing political variables.
Pressure on power, water usage, and community capacity is shifting from engineering issues to election topics. The market's concern is not that existing computing demand will suddenly disappear, but that the approval pace for future incremental projects may slow and costs may rise. Projects already signed and under construction still have momentum, but the certainty of new investments is declining.
Therefore, this round of decline looks more like a discounting of the slope of AI infrastructure expansion rather than a collapse in computing demand. Going forward, focus should be on tech giants' capital expenditure guidance and the actual implementation of data center approvals in various states. The AI narrative is not over; the pricing focus is shifting from "how fast it can run" to "how stable it can run." #美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Brothers, today let's focus on the market changes of these three altcoins
$AKE: A rebound does not mean a reversal
Previously, the funding rate was negative, mainly due to excessive short positions, which suppressed the contract price. Some short positions were closed early this morning, causing the price to rebound. This is not an active buy by bulls, nor does it mean the whales are preparing to pump the price. The market is still bearish, so don't rush to bottom-fish
$MERL: Oscillating upward, temporarily on hold
The daily chart shows an overall oscillating upward trend. Currently, there is a pullback, with long positions floating a loss of $368,000, but there is no obvious increase in volume yet. For now, wait for the next direction
$BEAT: Balanced between bulls and bears, direction unclear
Currently, the long-short ratio is relatively even. Recklessly guessing the price movement is not cost-effective. It's safer to wait for the trend to develop before taking action rather than entering blindlyOvernight liquidation of 1.1 billion dollars, and I didn't run away
Last night before I went to bed, I checked BTC at over 78,000; this morning it was over 75,500.
Overnight, 200,000 people were liquidated.
In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 1.033 billion dollars, with 198,931 people forcibly closed out. In just 4 hours, 880 million was liquidated, with long positions accounting for more than 90%.
BTC dropped to a low of 75,558, ETH dipped to 2,237; it’s not just one coin falling, it’s the whole market.
US stocks crashed first. The Nasdaq plunged, led by chip stocks. After the Democrats' big win in the midterm elections, the market fears Congress will tighten AI regulations, so tech stocks sold off first, and BTC was sold off along with them.
There are two other things many people haven’t noticed yet.
One is Trump Media, which transferred 4,259 BTC to Crypto.com on November 5, worth 342 million dollars. The other is Keel Infrastructure, which sold all 2,520 BTC it held in Q3, cashing out 192 million dollars.
Whales are moving, retail investors are holding on, and leverage is blowing up. That was last night.
I didn’t open any positions last night. It’s not that I’m that good; after writing that article the day before yesterday, I said that in this market, chasing longs with leverage is just giving money to the market.
Tonight is the key.
At 21:30, the US October nonfarm payrolls will be released, expected to add 62,000 jobs, while September’s previous value was only 29,000. Today, there are also 2.65 billion dollars worth of BTC options expiring, with the biggest pain point at 79,000. Just watch two numbers: whether BTC can hold above 76,000 and 78,000.#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 ⚡ Tech sell-off + computing power regulation shock: BTC breaks 76,000, $1.1 billion in chained liquidations
All post-election gains wiped out overnight.
Why such a sharp drop?
AI computing power regulation black swan: After the election, Democrats control both chambers; NBC poll shows 76% of voters oppose community data centers, 33 out of 45 local referendums impose construction limits; Meta warns of stricter environmental rules for new projects, Goldman Sachs says big tech capital expenditures may be delayed until 2027. Tech stocks crashed first, crypto followed.
Election benefits fully priced in: Pre-election “Trump crypto bonus” discounted, regulatory uncertainty back on the table, institutions reducing positions.
Leveraged long positions liquidated in chain: $1.12 billion liquidated network-wide in 24h (longs $990 million), over 210,000 forced liquidations, price dropped from 78,767 to 75,986 in 1 hour, classic long squeeze.
Macro resonance: Nasdaq lost 200-day moving average, oil prices rebounded, real interest rates remain tight, risk assets deleveraging together.
Support: 75,700 → 73,000
Resistance: 79,100–79,600 → 81,200
Summary
Not the end of the bull market, but a triple kill pullback of “AI regulation expectations + election pricing shift + high leverage cleanup.” Computing power narrative under short-term pressure, AI concept altcoins first to fall; BTC has institutional support, but 80,000 becomes the new top, only reclaiming 79K counts as recovery.
Tech stocks fell due to “computing power delays,” crypto fell due to “leverage casualties.”State root miscalculation, cross-chain temporarily halted — this issue is not about token prices, but about ledger alignment.
The Reth execution client and its derivative client op-reth have been disclosed by the security agency Blockaid to have a state root calculation error, affecting several EVM blockchains including multiple OP Stack chains. Unpatched nodes may experience synchronization stalls or consensus inconsistencies, and LayerZero has suspended related cross-chain services.
This is judged as bearish for the infrastructure layer: the state root is the anchor point for ledger alignment between nodes; a miscalculation can cause nodes to go offline at best, or at worst, different nodes may reach different conclusions on the same batch of transactions, with cross-chain verification and message passing being the first to be impacted. For traders, this is not a bearish signal for any particular chain's token price, but a trust disruption for the OP Stack ecosystem and node operators relying on Reth; there is no clear short-term tradable token, so do not short ETH or OP series tokens based on this.
Two scenarios to observe: one is that nodes and platforms running Reth/op-reth upgrade to the fixed version and re-verify the state root; the other is that LayerZero and affected chains resume cross-chain operations, which may involve withdrawal delays or on-chain anomalies. Risk reminder: the impact of a client-level bug depends on upgrade coverage; unpatched nodes may still drag down network-wide consensus, so the speed of fixing is more important than the narrative.
Are you more concerned about upgrade coverage or the time to resume cross-chain operations?
Source: Wu Shuo#美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压 One-sided decline, heavy accumulation of bottom-fishing positions
During the decline, new buy orders continuously enter to support, many positions choose to hold and add, spreading the cost higher and higher.
When high-volatility small coins move one-sidedly, funds that keep taking over positions are easily consumed by the market; do not enter lightly without a stabilization signal.
Open the position list and verify
,
MU each order's stop-loss position.
$SNDK $MU $BTC Good map of the trap 👏 Most downside liquidity is cleared, but one pocket is still sitting below $75K — that's the level to watch. If it gets swept and $BTC reclaims $78,500, the path up gets much cleaner. $BTC support $75,000, resistance $77,770 then $80,000. Sweep first or bounce first? Comment $BTC Opened a 50x long position at 1450, added once at 1366, and added again at 1131 — $SNDK In my view, the last two add-ons are increasing risk. The real reference point is the wick on 7/30 that dipped to 972. I only bought 2.43u at 972 myself; with 4x leverage, that’s 9.72. Holding such a light position doesn’t mean I’m bearish; it’s just that 960.1 can’t really be considered a solid bottom. Going down to 860, 760, 660 is still within the realm of possibility. Before storage heated up, it was originally something worth just a few hundred.
Later at 900, 813, 734, 668, I will gradually buy in to lower the average price. Total principal is over 2200, currently invested less than 4u, with leverage it’s only 16u, which accounts for 0.73% of the total position.
Trying at round number levels is fine, at most one-tenth of the funds, and after leverage, don’t exceed 10%. I won’t change this rule.#RocketLabQ3Neutron These are very delicate times for $RKLB, but it just refuses to break down from $50 as the holder base is strong after a 70% decline from all-time highs.
Earnings are incoming too.
Hopeful but realistic that we can get lower.
In my mental model the market cap currently without Neutron producing any revenue till 2028 is around 20-30B and it has nothing to do with their finances but with the cost of replacement of their technology.$BTC fell back to 76,000 overnight. Yesterday, it was full of short squeeze rebounds and shorts got liquidated; today, it's completely reversed, and the main force being liquidated has switched to the longs.
More important than the price is this: crypto tonight is almost synchronously dropping with the Nasdaq. Many still treat BTC as a safe haven decoupled from the US stock market, but in days when the whole market is deleveraging, it and tech stocks are basically part of the same liquidity pool, both getting drained together.
True decoupling is when, even as everyone is selling risk assets, it can still chart an independent trend—that's what safe haven means. Clearly, that is not the case now.
Remember this: don’t bet on it suddenly decoupling when correlation is at its highest.Tonight, the US stock market is bleeding heavily, but there's a detail more honest than the indexes: Cloudflare, also labeled as a tech stock, rose nearly 20% after hours because its earnings report shows solid subscription cash flow; meanwhile, semiconductor stocks relying on burning cash to build AI capacity saw the Philadelphia index drop 12% in a single day, marking the worst day since March 2020.
This doesn't mean tech stocks as a whole are doomed; the market is finally starting to distinguish between who is running a real business and who is just telling AI stories.
In a bull market, all boats rise together, making it hard to tell the depth; when the tide recedes, you see which ones stand on cash flow and which ones hang by narratives. Now is the time of the tide going out. Which type does the stock in your hand belong to? Someone asked me again if I have closed my short position. I haven't; tonight, there's actually one more reason to add to it.
Iren just revealed: due to Microsoft's unilateral request for changes, the delivery date of the data center has been postponed, and no delay compensation will be paid. In plain language, the buyer is starting to hit the brakes.
My short position is never a bet on whether a chip manufacturer makes money or not—AMD's revenue is still doubling. What I'm betting on is the financing chain and demand side that fuel this AI arms race. As long as the buyer starts to delay and contract, the first to bleed in the entire chain will definitely be those upstream companies desperately ramping up capacity.
Financial reports reflect the past quarter, but the buyer's actions indicate the next few quarters. If you focus on the wrong place, even if the direction is right, you'll still get repeatedly slapped in the face.🔥🔥🔥 Election suspense settles, crypto first breaks down then V-shaped rebound
Last night the market was really focused on Washington, not the candlesticks. The Democratic Party took control of both houses of Congress, Trump is constrained, BTC first fell below 76,000, then V-shaped pulled back to 80,500; ETH rose more than 6% simultaneously, recovering to 2,430 USD.
The core is not "who wins," but "uncertainty disappears." After the result settles, safe-haven positions are replenished; checks and balances limit fiscal expansion, US Treasury yields fall, risk assets overall ease pressure, the S&P rises, gold breaks 4,000, crypto rebound is just part of liquidity repricing.
But don’t mistake the rebound for a bull return. The underlying tone this time is still derivatives and sentiment: spot ETFs continued outflows before the election, Binance turmoil aftershocks remain; 82,000 BTC and 2,450 ETH are clear selling pressure zones; regulatory "Clear Act" resistance increases, Warren heads the banking committee, compliance narrative tightens short term.
So right now it looks more like a "bearish exhaustion style repair." If spot volume above 80,000 cannot hold, the rebound easily becomes leverage’s wedding dress. Going forward, focus on the sustainability of US stocks and whether ETFs flow back, more useful than election gossip.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH Last night, the market experienced an unprecedented crash, sharply contrasting with the night before yesterday. I wonder what tomorrow night will be like? In the past 24 hours, $BTC dropped 5.13%, $ETH fell 7.41%, and $SNDK plunged 22.5%, it was a bloodbath. Among them, the drop in SanDisk was just outrageous; a company with a market cap of hundreds of billions of dollars falling like a scam coin. However, this is good for me because I've been bearish recently, and a decline means I can make money. But now I feel a bit regretful because I closed my short options position too early. If I closed it now, I could have made an extra four to five hundred dollars. Analyzing data now feels useless; the data shows a lot of money going long, but I think now is not the time to go long. I'd rather wait and watch than go long now. Personally, I think this is a bit like the Trump tariff wave because the nature is quite similar—both caused by sudden negative news. The tariffs were because Trump imposed too many, and this time it's because the Democrats won too thoroughly. Both exceeded market expectations, which is why the market crashed like this. Will Trump back down because of the market drop? Will the Democrats back down because of the market drop? I think it's possible because the Democrats also have financial backers. Personally, I think the market is now like crying, making a fuss, and threatening to hang oneself. If the Democrats keep obstructing data center construction, then everyone is doomed together. Judging by SanDisk's trend alone, yesterday should be considered the crying stage, todayCore CPI in September remained at 0.3% for two consecutive months with structural diffusion; housing and super-core services provide bottom support. Tariff pass-through may not be fully over, and the Fed's hawkish response also confirms inflation stickiness. Your position is not without hope, but it requires a set of data combinations where multiple subcomponents cool down simultaneously against the current trend, and the October data will not be released until November 10."Don't just look at the K-line, check the chip table first (ง •̀_•́)ง"
Top old money talked about Hyperliquid last week when the market was all green, but HYPE bucked the trend, surging over 11%, with sentiment maxed out ✨. However, on November 6, 9.92 million core contributor tokens will unlock linearly, worth about $760 million at current prices; the 46.1 million AF tokens, though considered burned, should not be confused with this. You can't just pretend not to see the selling pressure (｡•́︿•̀｡).
ASTER feels more like a hidden threat: total supply 8 billion, circulating 2.508 billion, only 37.21% unlocked. The team’s share will increase from 0.5% to 11.6%, plus 36.3% staking emissions yet to be released, with Stage 6 claims open until November 28. The 0.09% circulating supply unlocking on November 29 seems minor, but the real risk is the team’s chips. The mechanism is aggressive, chip structure uncertain, so don’t rush to bottom-fish during the claim window (￣▽￣;).
UNI is cleaner: no large unlocks, fee reform enables a burn flywheel, fees directly burn UNI, and v4 aggregation Hook continues to expand revenue. $7 is in the undervalued range (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
For DeFi blue chips alike, income, buybacks, and burns are only half the story; the other half is watching the pace of subsequent chip releases. The risk-reward ratio often hides in the unlock schedule 🔍.
$HYPE $ASTER $UNI History rhymes 👏 After every midterm election, $BTC dropped hard — 2014 -58%, 2018 -52%, 2022 -26% — then found a bottom and bounced strong. This time is different: the driver is AI regulation fear + a possible Dec hike. Support $75,000 must hold, resistance $78,500 then $80,000. Does history repeat? Comment 👇 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trending #OKXOrbit$BTC $SOXL 。
#TradingPath
Why SNDK (SanDisk) keeps not rising
SNDK is purely a storage stock, betting on the continuous price increase of NAND flash and the explosion of AI storage demand.
Now the market expectation has shifted from "continuous price increase" to "price increase slowing down," which means its core bullish logic is loosening.
Even if the semiconductor market (NVIDIA, AMD, etc.) stabilizes or even rebounds, storage might still be weak alone and underperform SOXL.
This means: the overall trend will move in the same direction, but the sub-sectors will diverge.
SOXL: is a basket of semiconductors (NVIDIA, equipment, CPU, storage all bundled), with elasticity following the sentiment of the entire sector;
SNDK: bets on the storage cycle, its fate tied to flash prices and major manufacturers' guidance, and when there is independent negative news, it will fall behind alone.
After the US market opens tonight, watch for these two points:
✅ If NVIDIA and AMD are rising, but only Micron, SNDK, and Western Digital are falling → this means storage alone is negative, indicating sector internal differentiation, and SOXL's drag is limited;
✅ If NVIDIA also falls sharply → it is a sentiment sell-off across the entire tech and semiconductor sector, then SOXL and SNDK will fall together.I really misread the situation last night 😅 I originally thought each party would hold one chamber, but unexpectedly the Democrats took both houses, and the blue wave came decisively. I admit this misjudgment.
$BTC reacted very directly: the news first pushed it down to 75700, forcing shorts to cover, and with uncertainty clearing out, the price pulled back to 80000. In the short term, it doesn't care who wins; it gets scared first, then moves at its own pace; after the short squeeze, the rebound follows 📈
But in the long run, you can't just watch the spectacle. Originally, we expected the Republicans to push friendly bills like CLARITY, but now with the Democrats fully in control, regulatory clarity is likely to be shelved. Real legislation and regulation will have to wait until the new Congress takes office in January, and the direction is still leaning toward stricter ⚠️
Price is noise; policy is the signal. Short term is a tug of war between bulls and bears; long term is set by regulation. But no matter who is in power, loose or tight, BTC has endured Mentougou, FTX, and rounds of enforcement, and has come back in the end. The resilience remains 💪#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 A cold splash of water for everyone early this morning: volume surged, but did the positions keep up?
The total network volume increased by 10.62%, but the total positions only moved by 0.76%. Volume rises without position follow-through—I’m here to pour a bucket of cold water first. Volume surges are the easiest to deceive; volume is just the echo of yesterday’s excitement, while positions represent the real money stance right now. Don’t be fooled by volume. 😤
This volume data is like a rearview mirror: ETH volume surged 30.59%, the hottest in the market, but ZEC volume dropped 21.90%. The heat and cold are not on the same line at all. ETH is heating up intensely, ZEC is cooling down fastest. On the same chart, the heat difference is over fifty points. One is charging up, the other cooling down. This isn’t divergence; it’s each going their own way.
The core variable is positions: 24-hour positions for four coins show BTC unchanged, ETH up 4.02%, SOL up 0.54%, ZEC up 0.47%. Except for ETH, no one really added positions. Without position follow-through, even a big volume surge is just turnover. BTC market share is 60.12%, money is still revolving in BTC hands, not expanding outward. 😅
The network long-short ratio is 49.28 to 50.72, almost even; fear and greed at 51 stuck at neutral, no one is panicking or greedy. This market is just grinding, waiting, grinding until Friday night’s nonfarm payroll release.
Friday night’s nonfarm payroll expectation is an increase of 59,000 to 65,000. I only note the expectation, not guessing the actual value. Volume is virtual, positions are real. Until positions catch up, I won’t move. Not moving isn’t bearish; it’s waiting for a true signal. Before positions nod, no matter how big the volume surge, I just see it as noise. 🔒- 0127, this number is more honest than any slogan. Why did CORE's shorts dare to press down all the way from 0.0175 to 0.0127 before stopping? Last night when reviewing CORE's daily chart, what struck me most was not the continuous bearish candles, but that the MACD bullish divergence actually failed. Divergence is supposed to give confidence to bottom buyers, yet the price didn't even respect the so-called iron bottom at 0.0116. After the election results and the clear attribution of the two chambers, these small-cap coins did not receive the expected support; instead, the lack of narrative support was exposed even more thoroughly. When the rebound reached above 0.015, some continued to short, indicating that the market is not trading on "oversold will recover" but rather on "who will take this unclaimed position." Looking at the bigger picture, the sector's strength has already given the answer: mainstream assets like BTC and ETH act more like anchors of risk appetite during event windows, with funds preferring certainty; the problem with coins like CORE is not the decline itself, but that they cannot present a continuing story. Event catalysts did not translate into buying pressure; instead, they became opportunities for shorts to add positions. This means the pricing path has changed—from "expected rebound" to "rebound equals supply." The bullish logic is not entirely absent: after extreme overselling, short covering is likely; if volume increases and stops the fall near 0.0116, a short-term rebound to the 0.014 range is not surprising. But this is an opportunity at the rhythm level, not evidence of a trend reversal. The real unseen risk is,#IREN mining company transforms into AI cloud services, GPU delivery progress to be revealed #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
Brothers, the boot has dropped. The Democrats have taken control of both chambers, but for the crypto world, this is definitely a midterm bearish signal.
This means the Senate Banking Committee will most likely be headed by Warren, who is famously known as an "anti-crypto hardliner." The CLARITY Act that everyone was hoping for is basically dead, and future regulatory crackdowns will only get harsher.
Looking back at the market moves, it was all a setup. Previously, Bitcoin played the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" game based on the election results, forcing a short squeeze up to 81,199. And the result? Regulatory clouds overshadowed everything, funds refused to acknowledge it, and there was a brutal washout back down to 75,511. The current price is hovering around 76,341 catching its breath.
From a technical perspective: the 15-minute MACD shows a golden cross at the bottom, indicating a short-term oversold rebound and repair demand. But the SuperTrend is firmly suppressing at 77,300, so the trend remains bearish.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动
$ZEC
I studied ZEC carefully today. Compared to ETH and BTC, the drop range of ZEC is actually not that large. The main reason should be that the previous batch of short sellers got stuck inside and didn't leave, causing ZEC to remain high.Long and short showdown: one person's liquidation is another person's ATM
On the same candlestick chart, two traders with opposite directions have completely different fates.
Big Brother Maji increased his ETH long position to 7,200 coins, worth $17.47 million, 25x full margin, entry price 2366, liquidation price 2391. The liquidation price is actually higher than the entry price—this means the market left almost no room for error. The market showed no mercy, and the long position was precisely liquidated. This is not his first fall, nor will it be the last: he was liquidated eight times consecutively within the previous six hours, and his account once had only $1.5 left.
The opponent is another big player. The largest position is also ETH, but the direction is short: 6,430 coins, worth about $15.6 million, 25x full margin, average entry price 2294, liquidation price 6532. This short position contributed more than 60% of his total unrealized profit. One was repeatedly harvested at the liquidation price, while the other made the short position his main source of profit.
What is truly intriguing is $CORE. This token fell from a high of $6.14 to around $0.02, a nearly 99.8% retracement. There is a saying in the community: if you had shorted $CORE from its listing until now, you would have gotten rich long ago. The same "dogged spirit" applied to ETH longs results in repeated zeroing out, but applied to $CORE shorts tells a different story.
Sometimes direction is deadlier than leverage, and even more brutal than direction is persisting with the right obsession on the wrong asset. Big Brother Maji has won big again this round!
He is going long while rolling his positions, increasing from over 2,000 contracts to nearly 6,700 contracts with 25x leverage. The latest average price is 2366, with unrealized profits exceeding $460,000, and the liquidation price has been pushed up to 2391.
Big Brother is confident and continues to add positions, but I remain cautious about the short-term trend and tend to set short positions around 2450.
The logic is simple: the rally after the election results is more like short covering after the boot drops rather than a trend reversal. ETH faces obvious resistance around 2450, with limited upside space. With the Democrats controlling Congress, regulatory expectations are tightening, making it difficult for institutional funds to flow back in large scale in the short term. The high-leverage long positions clustered at this level may instead become fuel for subsequent market moves.
I do not recommend chasing longs. The current rebound space is smaller than the downside risk. Those holding long positions can consider taking profits in batches or moving stop losses up near the cost line.
Trading idea: try shorting ETH on a rebound to 2450-2480, or follow the trend to short if it breaks below 2350. Set stop loss above 2500. For short-term take profit, first target 2391 (Maji’s liquidation price), then further down to the 2300-2250 range.
Market sentiment has warmed somewhat, but it is important to recognize the nature of this rebound and the potential regulatory pressure. The concentration of high-leverage long positions means that once sentiment weakens, a pullback could come quickly.BTC and ETH Options Snapshot: Positions Lean Bullish, Short-Term Trading Favors Bears
The latest options data is out, showing a clear divergence between BTC and ETH open interest and intraday trading. Long-term positions lean bullish, but recent trading activity is more bearish.
For BTC options open interest, call options total 257,900 BTC, accounting for 57.9%; put options total 187,500 BTC, accounting for 42.1%, indicating a bullish dominance in existing holdings. However, switching to 24-hour trading volume, the situation reverses: put options traded 55,800 BTC, making up 51.03%, showing short-term funds prefer protective bearish positions.
ETH shows even more pronounced divergence. Existing call options amount to 1,636,500 ETH, nearly 60%, reflecting strong long-term bullish holdings. Yet in 24-hour trading, put options traded 517,900 ETH, accounting for 56.22%, indicating short-term funds are buying puts to hedge against downside risk.
In simple terms, large holders still bet on upside in their base positions, but short-term funds are starting to hedge, anticipating a pullback. This structure often suggests the market is likely to enter a consolidation phase, with intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears, making a swift one-sided trend difficult to emerge. Why is $BTC still falling despite such good employment data? Let's talk about the method first, not the conclusion.
Good data should be viewed through transmission, not as good or bad. Strong employment → The Fed has no reason to ease. The probability of a rate hike in December rises, so risk assets fall first.
Initial jobless claims are about 189,000, lower than the expected 195,000 to 197,000. The lowest since 1969. $BTC is around $76,300, down about 4.6% in one day. $ETH is around $2,258, down about 6.3% in one day. $SOL is around $90.08, down about 4.7% in one day.
60-minute liquidations are about $370M. $BTC fell below $77,000. $ETH fell below $2,300. The non-farm payrolls tonight are the next step. The expectation is an increase of about 62,000, with an unemployment rate of about 4.2%. First, look at non-farm payrolls and rate hike probability, not the data's goodness or badness itself.Institutions are finally seriously studying BTC, but they still haven't dared to confidently hold large positions!
JPMorgan Asset Management has included BTC in its long-term return forecast for the first time, with a baseline scenario projecting an annualized return of about 10% over the next decade, even higher than some of its expectations for gold and U.S. stocks.
But don't just focus on this number; institutions also point out that BTC's volatility is too high and its correlation with other assets is unstable, which remains a barrier to allocation.
Looking at the market, the big players, the slow aristocrats, and SOL are all rebounding today, with ETH performing even stronger, indicating some recovery in risk appetite.
My understanding is: institutions have recognized BTC's long-term value, but in the short term, they are still observing risks and liquidity. Being optimistic long-term does not mean blindly buying now.
Don't treat long-term forecasts as short-term signals; watch volume for breakouts and support for pullbacks.
Personal market record sharing, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎