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$MU Previously, our posts also mentioned a profit and loss ratio issue, specifically in the storage sector, where the goal is to pull the highest multiples in the shortest time. Pulling 100x in a year on the US stock market is unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated, so I have been shorting because the profit and loss ratio is stronger. So far, this approach seems to be correct. Last night, when I was free, I also browsed Orbit; basically, everyone was bottom-fishing storage stocks, meaning the price is cheap enough, but very few people truly understand the US stock market and some broader environmental factors. The Democratic Party won, the market rallied inversely, then traded sideways all day, and by the morning close, it recorded a historic -6.89% drop. So will it fall further? Personally, I think, purely my personal opinion, it will continue to fall until mid-month. How will it fall? It will pull up then drop down, so you don’t feel it’s a big drop. It won’t be a big rebound either; it’s just tormenting people.#Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ ⚠️Not investment advice OKLO: • Demonstration reactor (INL) expected to connect to the grid in 2028, small-scale power supply implementation; Meta data center nuclear power project expected to start scaled power supply by 2030 • Positives: Obtained NRC design criteria approval, Meta framework intention, isotope business can be monetized earlier • Challenges: No commercial operation license, HALEU fuel shortage, advanced reactor construction schedules prone to delays, most agreements are frameworks rather than formal power purchase contracts In short: Small demonstration about 2 years away, AI data center scaled power supply at least 4 years away, approvals and fuel are the biggest variables. $SNDK Previously, our posts also mentioned a profit and loss ratio issue, specifically in the storage sector, where the goal is to pull the highest multiples in the shortest time. In one year, the US stock market pulled 100 times, unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated, so I have been shorting because the profit and loss ratio is stronger. So far, this approach seems correct. Last night, when I was free, I also browsed Orbit; basically, everyone was bottom-fishing storage stocks, meaning the price is cheap enough, but very few people truly understand the US stock market and some broader environmental factors. The Democratic Party won, the market reversed and rose, then consolidated sideways all day. By the morning close, it recorded a historic -6.89% drop. So will it fall further? Personally, just my opinion, I think it will continue to fall until mid-month. How will it fall? It will rise a bit then fall a bit, so you won't feel it's a big drop. It won't be a big rebound either; it will just be torturous. $CORE btcs.sa has already exited the core business, you can check espiebi. Also, not sure if it's a coincidence or has deeper meaning, this company holds 68.3 million core, and in the b14g theft incident, the hacker left about 68 million recovered, quite interesting The previous article questioned whether it was a true continuation or a short squeeze finale. The sharp drop in US AI stocks gave a direct answer: the entire market liquidated over $1 billion, $ETH plunged 7.98% to 2,230.05, while only $CAP rose against the trend by 12.66% to 0.10865. During the sell-off, ETH saw a net inflow of 45,385 coins into exchanges in a single day, open interest dropped by 14.8%, the active buy/sell volume ratio was only 0.86, but the long/short ratio surged from 1.35 to 3.21; the speculative capital shifting to CAP was supported by a high funding rate of +0.0613% and 2.9 times volume. We held a long ETH position for 21 hours and stopped out at -34.9%; CAP long positions were successively liquidated at -19.9% and -61.2%, then a reopened CAP long is now +21.6%, with a stop loss at 0.10141, 7.0% away from the current price. ETH must reclaim the 4H EMA50 (2,310.73) to stabilize; breaking below the 7-day low of 2,171.52 would mean further downside; CAP continues to attack after surpassing the 7-day high of 0.11281, but breaking below the 4H EMA20 (0.0904935) would indicate weakness. Despite the surge in ETH long/short ratio, spot inflows are seen—can retail bottom-fishers withstand the selling pressure this time? #ETH #CAP #MarketAnalysis Personal observation, not investment advice, please assess risks independently.Forgive my jinx, but unfortunately, it came true. The rebound is not a reversal, but there’s no need to worry too much! Since the midterm elections in 2006 when both chambers switched to the opposing party, the US stock market mainly experienced fluctuations rather than a major drop. Although the Democratic Party controls Congress and there are frictions with Trump, there is no friction between the two parties themselves. I believe AI stocks are not a bubble burst. First, human nature is similar昨晚美股迎来一轮大调整，纳斯达克大跌5.5%，前一天市场还因为中期选举结果出现反弹，但仅一天，涨幅便被全部抹去。加密市场同样未能幸免，比特币从8.1万美元附近跌破7.6万美元。$BTC 这轮下跌并非没有征兆，最直接的原因还是市场对AI产业投资前景的担忧。 过去两年，AI几乎是美股上涨最重要的推动力之一。无论是英伟达这样的芯片企业，还是亚马逊、微软等云服务巨头，都在持续增加AI相关投入。但随着数据中心建设不断扩张，资金开始关注另一个问题，如此庞大的投资，究竟什么时候才能转化为实际利润？ 数据中心建设需要大量资金，芯片采购、电力供应和基础设施配套也在推高企业的资本开支，部分企业甚至开始更多依赖债务融资。 投资规模越来越大，但AI业务的盈利能力还需要时间验证，这让市场开始重新评估此前过高的增长预期。 因此半导体板块成了抛售重灾区，费城半导体指数大幅下跌，英伟达、AMD等科技股也出现明显回撤。 中期选举的结果还是给市场带来了不确定性，民主党在选举中取得优势后，投资者开始关注未来国会及地方政府对AI基础设施建设的态度。数据中心不仅涉及企业投资，还关系到电力供应、用水和居民生活成本。 如得州新任Woke up in the middle of the night and found that options, institutions, and liquidations don't match up. Options show 58.35% bullish positions, but liquidations show 64.2% short positions. The directions on both sides simply don't align. Let me break it down first. The bullish bets pile up on paper, but the positions don't follow through—that's what I mean by not matching. Only after breaking it down do I realize the hype is fake. 🤔 BTC: Positions haven't moved in 24 hours, a ballast stone; no movement means everyone is waiting for it to move first. ETH: Positions increased by 4.02%, volume surged by 30.59%, the hottest in the market and the only real position increase among the four coins. SOL: Positions only increased by 0.54%, following along, no own opinion. ZEC: Positions increased by 0.47%, but volume dropped by 21.90%, turnover cooled off significantly. 😅 Let's cross-check the three layers again: Liquidations show 64.2% short positions, those chasing shorts are still getting hit; options show 58.35% bullish positions, bets lean long; institutional CME positions at $7.52 billion, increased by 5.79%, institutions moved first. The three layers each tell a different story: liquidations are squeezing shorts, options are betting long, institutions are adding positions, directions are completely opposed. With conflicting directions, chasing either side risks getting hurt. ZEC upgrade follows block schedule, expected early November. I treat it as a long-term hook, not a current reason. When things don't match, my only approach is to wait. Wait for options and positions to align before deciding whether to follow. CME moved first, but that doesn't mean the whole market moved. If alignment doesn't come, I'd rather miss out than chase wrongly. Before the three layers align, I won't leverage, just wait for positions to show their stance first.GMX has expanded the coverage of its stablecoin vault to seven markets at once: BTC, ETH, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE, XRP, SOL. The USDG deposited will be distributed across all these markets, with earnings coming from the trading volume of these markets, withdrawable at any time, and a launch promotion running until November 30. What’s truly worth noting is not "supporting seven coins," but the structure of "one vault simultaneously capturing the trading volume of seven markets." Previously, stablecoin yield farming was mostly single-pool single-coin; you chose a pool and only bore that pool’s risk. Now, the same USDG is spread across seven markets, and the yield becomes a weighted result of the trading volumes of these seven markets. Mechanically, this type of vault acts as the counterparty and liquidity source for these markets, earning from the fees paid by traders. The more active the trading, the more you earn; if the market cools down, the yield drops. It doesn’t sell fixed interest but packages the activity level of seven markets into a share that can be entered and exited at any time. For retail investors, the threshold is indeed lowered: no need to individually provide liquidity or monitor liquidation lines of single pools; a single deposit automatically diversifies. For $GMX, a larger vault supports the overall asset scale of the protocol. One point to consider: the volatility and liquidity of ZEC and HYPE are not on the same level as $BTC and $ETH, and the announcement does not specify how weights are allocated. Diversification sounds safe, but if weights are equal, the risk is determined by the weakest market. Check the allocation ratio before depositing.On the surface, everything is rising, but very few can truly hold on. Is this wave really a window for chasing the rally, or just another false hype? Let me set the tone first: it currently feels more like an emotional recovery phase after the news has settled, not a full-scale offensive phase. With election uncertainties fading and policy concerns easing, BTC has returned above $81,000, and mainstream coins have taken the lead. But the market gives me the impression of lively indices with layered support; the experience of chasing highs and buying dips feels completely different. What’s truly worth watching is the cross-market linkage. The volatility caused by AI regulatory divergences after the US midterm elections will first transmit to risk appetite, then to sector selection within crypto. In other words, the market is not simply trading on "no more bad news," but is pricing in advance whether "after policy visibility improves, funds will dare to return to assets with real income." BTC holding steady is the emotional base; whether ETH and altcoins can keep up depends on whether funds are willing to shift from defensive to offensive positions. On the bullish side: reduced policy uncertainty will indeed improve risk appetite; BTC standing back above $81,000 gives the market an anchor to tell a recovery story. DEX assets like HYPE, which have protocol revenue and buyback-and-burn loops, are easily taken as "real cash flow" examples; UNI’s reform fees are linked to burns, v4 multi-chain and Hooks continue to attract liquidity, and it has no large unlocking burdens, making it a valuation reconsideration but not suitable for chasing highs; LINK connects RWA and institutional on-chain demand, with elasticity that doesn’t explode,#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 $BTC Last night was the direct trigger: the Nasdaq plummeted, dragging down risk assets and hitting cryptocurrencies $ETH Last night BTC dropped from 80,800 to 75,500, ETH fell over 7%, driven by four combined negative factors: US tech stocks crash: Nasdaq -5.52%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -12%, AI spending concerns intensified, BTC sold off as a high beta asset; Leveraged liquidations chain reaction: over $1.08 billion liquidated in 24h, 88% long positions, a long squeeze triggered after breaking below 78,000; Weakening liquidity: ETF net outflow of $201 million, Coinbase Premium turned negative, insufficient institutional buying; Pre-nonfarm risk aversion: market cut positions ahead, waiting for tonight's data to set direction. Summary: Macro deleveraging, non-crypto sector defaults. Support at 75K, but unable to hold 80K means weakness persists. Short term focus on tonight's nonfarm: hot data → retest 75K; cold data → recovery towards 79K-80K. Trading strategy: no chasing shorts, no catching falling knives, 75K-76.5K is the critical zone, break below targets 73K. Historical data shows that in past cycles studied, Bitcoin's premium relative to this cost basis has reached at least 85%. Based on the current real market average, this corresponds to approximately $142,260. We regard this as a reference level to observe the trend of this bull market, not as a minimum target or final peak: historically, prices have continued to rise after surpassing this level, but whether a similar trend can recur remains uncertain. Historical experience indicates that bull markets only peak after Bitcoin's premium relative to this cost basis (the percentage by which market price exceeds average cost) reaches at least 85%. Based on the current real market average, this corresponds to $142,260. We view this as the minimum trigger threshold for the bull market to start pushing toward the peak, not a ceiling, and certainly not the final peak: historically, prices usually continue to rise significantly after surpassing this level. As Bitcoin rises and turnover (chips changing hands between old and new holders) increases, the average holding cost will rise accordingly: some holders take profits, new buyers enter at higher prices, and this process itself pushes the target level higher, meaning the peak of this bull market should be above $142,260. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC After the midterm elections, the AI regulatory narrative has started, first let's see if Clarity-type legislation is progressing. At first, I also thought that if the Democrats took both chambers, crypto legislation would quickly be implemented. Looking at NBC exit polls, 76% oppose building data centers in their own communities, and 57% believe AI does more harm than good to society. Public sentiment is quite firm on this. On the legislative side, The Block cited Digital Chamber saying: Democratic control of Congress does not mean comprehensive crypto legislation is completely dead, but the old way of bypassing moderate Democrats no longer works. They specifically named Warren as a leading candidate for Senate Banking Chair and identified this committee as one of the biggest obstacles to Clarity. The September Senate procedural vote on Clarity failed, and no new bipartisan timetable has been posted since. Don't interpret the Nasdaq or crypto pullback as regulatory bills having already been passed. If next time the congressional calendar shows bipartisan hearing dates for Clarity or similar market structure bills, I'll admit I underestimated this situation. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 After 9 years of struggling independently, Zilliqa finally admits defeat: it will transform itself into Ethereum's Layer 2, specifically serving regulated institutions. The ZIL token will not disappear; holders don't need to take any action for now and should wait for the official announcement of technical details. From another perspective, the original chain lacked sufficient usage, capital, and liquidity, and security incidents further drove up maintenance costs. So they decided to hand over settlement to Ethereum, embedding identity verification and compliance mechanisms to create a permissioned market for compliant players. Simply put, they are moving themselves from an "isolated island" into Ethereum's "big family," hoping to leverage the large ecosystem to solve liquidity and security issues. After all, the total market cap of stablecoins has reached nearly $300 billion, with a 1.65% drop over 7 days, and on-chain liquidity is tightening. Do you think this move can help Zilliqa regain its footing? #OrbitTech The Nasdaq dropped 5.5%, it fell 8.3% during the day, then reversed to rise 18% after hours 📈 Cloudflare Q3 revenue was 782.5 million, up 39% year-over-year, the fastest in nearly four years, adjusted earnings per share were $0.38, and guidance was also raised. But it has dropped 23% in 5 days, surged to 288 after hours, OKX perpetual has fallen back to 278, the 280 barrier has not yet been firmly held. I think the earnings report is strong, but before holding above 280, consider it an oversold rebound. $NET #美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压 $FLOKI The FLOKI bot service suddenly went offline, and the team said they are investigating an exploit and reminded users not to deposit money into the bot wallet temporarily. The official statement also said that affected users will later be migrated to a new secure wallet, but no specific impact scope has been given yet. Let me clarify the boundaries first: this is a security incident with the bot service, which does not mean the FLOKI token contract has been compromised. However, the market won't make this distinction for you. FLOKI spot is currently at 0.00002139, having dropped from 0.00002281 to 0.00002071 in 24 hours, still down about 6.2%. OKX spot daily volume is about $347,000, perpetual volume about $1.98 million, open interest only about $687,000, with a funding rate of -0.00576%, meaning shorts are paying. In a small pool, news can easily be amplified. I won't interpret the price drop as the project going to zero, nor will I take the official migration promise as risk fully resolved. Until the bot issue is clarified, treat this as a security incident first. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 The election market rally lasted only one day. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones rose 1,569 points, but on Thursday it gave back 1,833 points in one go, closing at 51,523, which is even lower than before the election; the Nasdaq first rose 364 points, then fell 1,422 points, nearly four times the gain. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25% in a single day, the worst day since March 2020. On Wednesday, the market rushed to buy on the assumption of a favorable result, but on Thursday it realized that with the Democrats taking Congress, AI data center approvals will slow down.#非农在即, can the employment data strengthen the December rate hike expectations? $ZEC US spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $578 million on November 4, marking five consecutive trading days of losses, with a five-day cumulative outflow of approximately $1.91 billion. Fidelity's FBTC led with an outflow of about $357 million, followed by ARKB with about $128 million; none of the twelve products had a net inflow that day. However, BTC's market price moved oppositely: it rose from a low of around 75,734 in 24 hours to near 81,200, currently priced at about 80,760, with a funding rate of approximately 0.007%. Institutional players are still withdrawing, yet the price has recovered over five thousand points. I tend to view this rally as a short-term pulse driven by short covering combined with a post-election risk appetite recovery, rather than a trend reversal. Before ETFs turn positive, chasing longs above 80,000 still lacks conviction. In the short term, 80,000 serves as support, with multiple retests during the Asian morning session; reduce positions if this level breaks. The first resistance is at 81,200, where the price was capped this morning; do not chase without a breakout. Set stop loss below 79,200, with an initial target of 82,000, maintaining a small position size.#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 The core contradiction in Moderna's Q3 earnings report lies in the tug-of-war between short-term vaccine revenue pressure and long-term pipeline valuation. The market expects revenue of about $890 million, a year-on-year decline of approximately 12%. The COVID-19 vaccine, as the foundation, continues to decline; the RSV vaccine struggles against the first-mover advantages of GSK and Pfizer; the flu vaccine missed the 2026 US procurement cycle, contributing minimally this quarter. But what truly deserves attention is whether the company can maintain its full-year revenue guidance and the year-end cash target of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. If vaccination season data does not significantly worsen, the market may continue to focus on the oncology pipeline narrative; otherwise, accelerated cash burn will reignite doubts about the commercialization ceiling of mRNA.🔥 The US October non-farm payrolls are coming! Will the rate cut script be rewritten? This time, the key to the non-farm payrolls may not be "how many new jobs" but "the structure." Unemployment rate, wage growth, and labor force participation rate explain the cooling or stalling of the labor market better than the total monthly number. If new job growth slows, unemployment remains stable, and wages grow moderately, it indicates a soft landing for the economy, which is actually more comfortable for risk assets. If the unemployment rate suddenly spikes and rate cut expectations heat up again, it might first be suppressed by recession trades. If wage stickiness is strong, the Fed also has no reason to rush to ease. For $BTC, don’t just focus on the probability of rate cuts. Whether the US dollar index falls back, real interest rates decline, and liquidity truly improves are harder signals. Rate cut expectations can cause pulse-like rallies, but sustained moves require liquidity support. My judgment: The rate cut window is still open, but non-farm payrolls are just one piece of the puzzle. What the market will trade next is whether there will be a soft landing or recession risk, which is more important than guessing the timing. Are you more worried about rate cuts being further delayed or the economy turning down first? #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ NRC审批拉长、燃料供应滞后，首堆推迟到2029–2030，大规模供电延后至2032之后Seeing this kind of 10x long position, my first reaction is not to guess how much it can rise, but to first calculate how long it can hold if it goes the other way. When I train newcomers, I always emphasize: direction judgment and position tolerance are two separate challenges. Core Trader 19 opened a long NBIS position this time, using 10x leverage, with a nominal position of about $57,600. This is an opening signal; the result is not yet revealed, so a large bet cannot be taken as evidence of bullishness. 📌 A simplified calculation: dividing the position by leverage, the initial margin is about $5,760; if the price drops 1%, the position loss is about $576, which is 10% of this margin, not including fees. Leverage amplifies not only profits but also compresses the error correction space. Newcomers often misunderstand that "10x leverage means you can withstand a 10% drop." In reality, forced liquidation is also affected by maintenance margin, margin mode, and other factors, so you can't apply this rigidly. When I look at such positions, I first check the risk boundary before discussing directional confidence.A short position on $ETH at 2200, I didn't choose to set a stop loss; instead, I added to the short at 2404, with an average price of 2324. Because my trade is based on the logic of hacker coin theft and coin washing, Trump's election loss hasn't changed this logic. Even if it rises to 2448, it still holds. I don't believe hackers would dump 550,000 ETH without creating a price gap. This is just part of my trading position, short-term, for reference only #dUS midterms just put AI data centers under a political spotlight, and the market is split on what comes next. The facts: most Americans oppose a data center in their own community (Reuters/Ipsos: 57%, Gallup: 71%). WilmerHale expects tailored rules after the vote rather than a full stop, while Oxford Economics says the threat of moratoriums may already be pulling construction forward. Two readings: Tighter rules slow capacity, which raises costs and delays builds. Policy uncertainty pushes Big TSaw something quite interesting: the boss of a listed company came out saying, "Our stock is too cheap, I'm starting to buy from today." Do you believe that? My first reaction was, "Then why didn't you do it earlier?" But this time he gave the full reason. Texas Helios Phase One delivery, 800 megawatts, all capacity leased out under long-term contracts, not just empty talk, he actually has long-term contracts in hand. He also admitted that the Democrats winning brings pressure, but said that financial blockchain and AI demand are cross-cycle matters. To translate: I accept whoever is in power short-term, but long-term I bet on the trend. The boss says it's cheap, but I don't dare to follow. Whether $BTC goes up or not, I don't know, but he is buying his own company's stock himself.The head of a publicly listed crypto company openly stated that there is a huge disconnect between their stock price and company value, and then started buying shares that very day. This is exactly what Galaxy Digital's Novogratz did. First, let's look at what he holds. The first phase of Helios in Texas has been delivered as planned, with 800 megawatts of capacity fully leased out through long-term contracts. This information is more significant than the stock price: the computing power is not sold off piecemeal but locked in by long-term contracts, ensuring cash flow for the coming years. While the market is still debating the narrative, its revenue structure has already shifted to contracts. Next, why dare to increase holdings under pressure? He admits that the Democratic Party's victory in the U.S. brings pressure but places his judgment on a longer timeline: the migration of finance onto the blockchain combined with the AI demand explosion is a generational shift that transcends government changes and market cycles. The key is that it does not depend on any particular administration being friendly but on whether the migration itself continues. The mechanism is not complicated. A company that simultaneously operates asset management, investment banking, mining farms, and computing power is often valued based on the worst-performing business segment, which is a complexity discount. The management's way to counter this is by increasing their holdings, using real money to say the discount is excessive. But it must be made clear: when a CEO says their stock is cheap, the reliability is limited; far more people call undervaluation than actually get it right. What really matters is those 800 megawatts of long-term contracts and whether AI demand can translate into rental income. One question remains: when a mining company's valuation is determined by AI computing power rental income, is it still considered a crypto company? The pricing power of $BTC's computing power fundamentals may be undergoing a rewrite.If this is round one of AI valuation cuts, $BTC rarely escapes round two — Nasdaq -10% from its Oct peak and semis -11% in a day is the risk-off that dragged $BTC $80,960 → $75,558. $BTC fell less than Nasdaq, but if data-center funding dries up, semis lead lower. $75,000 support, $77,770 then $80,000 resistance. AI bubble bursting or just a correction? Comment 👇 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trending #OKXOrbit🔍 Stablecoins have risen, but I actually want to check who is quoting the prices. Don't rush to interpret the premium as strong demand. Blockaid has detected that the bridged token DAI.e on the Avalanche chain has risen to about $1.10 in active decentralized trading pools. The pool's peg deviation is a clue, but it doesn't mean the entire chain is short on coins. This is my speculation: if the pool depth is insufficient, even small trades can push up the price. I treat this more as a liquidity alert and will continue to monitor the pool depth and the duration of the peg deviation.Democratic control of both chambers shifts the policy balance from unified Republican rule toward oversight and negotiation. The crypto angle remains a discussion of possible House legislation, not a bill or timetable; that uncertainty matters for markets assessing a broader SEC role and conflict rules. #DemocratsWinHouseSenate #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Market expectations are approximately $990,000 to $1.09 million (year-on-year significant growth mainly from isotope sales, not electricity sales). · Earnings per share (EPS): Generally expected to be about -$0.24 to -$0.27, with losses widening about 40%-46% year-on-year. · Net loss: Expected to be about $43.53 million. · Cash position: As of the end of Q2, holding about $3 billion in cash and marketable securities, but the 2026 operating cash burn guidance has been raised to $120 million to $150 million, and capital expenditures have been increased to $400 million to $500 million. $NET dropped about 8% during the day to around 245, then after-hours earnings caused a jump of about +14% to around 280. I’m not chasing the gap. Here’s what I saw: Cloudflare Q3 revenue about $782.5 million, up about 39% year-over-year, the fastest in nearly four years, consensus was about $736.8 million. Adjusted EPS about 0.38, beating consensus of about 0.34. Q4 revenue guidance about 845–846 million (consensus about 798 million), full year raised to about 2.963–2.964 billion. The stock fell during the day along with AI, then after-hours it quickly pulled back from about 245 to around 280. My take: The numbers are solid, but a daily gap of over ten points means too many people are already chasing the "AI security essential demand" narrative. The market is still digesting selling pressure; this kind of after-hours surge feels more like emotional repair, not a green light to chase the rally. Watching but not chasing. First, see if it can hold around 280 on Friday; if it falls back to about 245 or the guidance is proven wrong, then reassess. Do you trust "strong earnings can hold the gap," or "the gap is too big, better not catch it yet"? $NET $NVDA $QQQ #USStocks #EarningsMorgan Stanley joining DTCC's tokenization service matters because it places onchain interests in stocks, ETFs and Treasuries inside familiar custody infrastructure. That may make settlement and collateral workflows more practical for institutions. Still, the $30T figure is eligibility, not tokenized demand; only 34 securities are initially covered. Adoption, not addressable value, is the test. #MorganStanleyJoinsDTCC At 9:30 PM tonight, the October non-farm payrolls will be released, coinciding with the US stock market just having taken a heavy hit. On Thursday, the Nasdaq $QQQ dropped 5.5%, the S&P fell 4.4%, and the Dow dropped 1,833 points. Money fled to bonds, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling to 4.84%, the lowest in two months. Market expectations are very low. The consensus forecast for the Dow Jones is an increase of only 59,000 jobs, FactSet estimates 65,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%. In September, only 29,000 jobs were added. From January last year to September this year, the average monthly increase was only 35,000, and the unemployment rate rose by just 0.2 percentage points because the labor force is nearly 1 million fewer than in September last year. Fewer hires mean fewer layoffs as well; last week’s initial jobless claims were 189,000, close to the lowest level since 1969. The Fed officials are not weak. Richmond Fed President Barkin said on Thursday that with the unemployment rate near historic lows and inflation too high, the path is clear; the only question is the pace, and he leans toward gradual hikes. FedWatch gives the probability of a rate hike in December at over 80%. The Bank of England raised rates to 4% on the same day by an 8-1 vote, the first time in over three years. The sole dissenting vote wanted a 50 basis point hike and expects inflation to head toward 5% by mid-next year. This time, the unemployment rate is more important than the job additions. The labor force has been shrinking, so an increase of 60,000 jobs is enough to keep the unemployment rate at 4.2%. If it jumps above 4.3%, it means the problem is not a lack of hiring but a lack of people to hire, and Barkin would have to change his tune, loosening the 80% probability of a rate hike. If the unemployment rate stays steady, the Fed will watch inflation regardless of job additions, so don’t expect the stock market to find any relief from this report. $AAPL $TSLA During yesterday's sharp drop, this perpetual chain collected about $521,000 in "priority fees" in a single day, setting a new record high. This amount accounted for approximately 12.7% of the platform's total revenue that day, also a record high. This does not mean the platform has already made a fortune, nor does it mean every ordinary order has to pay this much—the main players are liquidation bots and frontrunners competing for priority. Let's watch if this level remains high after things calm down in the next few days. $HYPE 📉 On November 4, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $578 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of outflows, with a total of about $1.91 billion over five days. Fidelity's FBTC led with a single-day withdrawal of about $357 million, ARKB about $128 million, and none of the twelve products had net inflows. 📈 But the market moved in the opposite direction: BTC rose from a low of about 75,734 in 24 hours to around 81,200, currently priced at about 80,760, with a funding rate of about 0.007%. Institutions are withdrawing, yet the price has recovered over five thousand points. 🤔 This looks more like short covering combined with a short-term pulse of risk appetite warming after the election; I do not see it as a trend reversal. As long as the ETF does not turn positive in a day, chasing longs above 80,000 is psychologically uneasy. 🎯 In terms of operation, treat 80,000 as short-term support first; it has been tested multiple times in the Asian morning session. If it breaks, reduce positions. The first resistance above is 81,200; this morning's high is right at this level, so don't chase if it can't break through. Set stop loss below 79,200, with a target initially at 82,000, maintaining a small position.Recovery does not equal realization $CORE recovery address received 68.15 million tokens, and the price dropped more than 6% that day. This is not just sentiment; it is an unresolved case on the ledger. How the tokens came about: a hard fork redirected the attacker’s balance to the recovery address; the original transactions were not erased, and attack traces can still be found on-chain. The recovery action is valid, but the distribution action is absent. The key lies in who holds the chips. The 68.15 million tokens are stuck at the recovery address; the affected users have not received them, which means there is a large sell order outside the market that can be activated at any time. If it doesn’t move, the selling pressure is just locked up; if it moves, the expectation is realized. So the price drop first is pricing in the “possible future distribution.” The opposing side is not watching the announcement but the first transfer out of the recovery address. Until it is sent out, recovery is just an address change, not a risk clearance. Only when distribution begins can it be considered a true recovery.Oklo's Q3 report may clarify a meaningful gap: Aurora and AI data-center power partnerships show strategic direction, but they do not establish commercial readiness. Regulatory approvals, construction and funding remain active constraints. Project updates alongside cash burn should be the useful evidence. Strength on both would make the route to operations more concrete; either one alone leaves material uncertainty. #OkloQ3NuclearOutlook I see this as just a bet in the same direction, not yet confirmation of a trend. Two people being bullish does not equal a shift in market sentiment to bullish. Two wallets opened long positions on ZEC with 10x leverage, totaling about $302,800. I stick to three rules: look at the trend—there's no trend confirmation here; look at breadth—two people don't represent market consensus; look at the fallback—10x leverage means if the price moves about 10% against them, their margin could be wiped out. The trend is the best friend; without confirmation, I wait. How is everyone judging ZEC's trend now, by moving averages or by high-low point structure?There is a noteworthy position adjustment on-chain. An address with a cumulative profit of about 40.97 million USD closed its long position of 1010.24 ETH and opened a short position of 1406.37 ETH, with the current position valued at approximately 3.16 million USD. Looking at the 3.16 million alone, it’s not a whale in the ETH market. What’s worth noting is the rhythm: within the window, it closed about 4.22 million USD in long positions while opening about 5.17 million USD in short positions. The short position is even larger than the closed long, which is not hedging to reduce risk but a directional bet. There is a mechanism here that is easy to overlook. Large holders’ position adjustments are often not predictions but reactions to liquidity: when longs are crowded, pushing prices up becomes costly, and pushing down yields more profit, so positions naturally tilt toward the short side. Reading this kind of reversal is not about their price view but about judging which side is more likely to move. Look again at the 40.97 million USD cumulative profit. The characteristic of such addresses is longevity, not chasing rebounds, and switching sides when wrong. They won’t stubbornly hold longs just because they are bullish on $ETH long-term, nor will they become permanent shorts just because they opened a short; they follow odds, not faith. What should be remembered most is not "If the big player is bearish, I’m bearish too," but the difference in rhythm: closing 4.22 million in longs first, then opening 5.17 million in shorts, with position confirmation in between, not emotion. A question worth pondering: when such an address opens a reverse position larger than the closed one, how many longs remain uncleared in the market? Why did the market suddenly crash yesterday? It wasn't because a certain on-chain project blew up; it was the US stock AI tech stocks that crashed first, dragging the crypto market down with them. Simply put, there are four points: 1. The midterm elections resulted in the Democrats controlling both chambers, causing market concerns about slower AI data center expansion and stricter regulations. 2. AI is burning too much money, returns are being questioned, chip stocks plummeted, and the Nasdaq followed suit. 3. The day before, the price had just rebounded above $80,000, mostly due to short covering, but the foundation was weak. 4. There were many leveraged long positions, so when prices dropped, it triggered a cascade of liquidations, amplifying the decline. So yesterday felt more like a post-election rebound sell-off + AI trading crash spillover + long liquidation.An intriguing detail: The Japanese Prime Minister specifically spoke about the market today, saying he is closely watching the sharp declines in AI and chip stocks but "finds it difficult to determine whether this is a temporary phenomenon or will persist." When a national leader steps in to soothe the market and frankly admits he doesn't understand it either, such a scene usually doesn't occur during calm market conditions. Politicians instinctively wait for the dust to settle before making statements; their early intervention to speak out precisely indicates that the volatility has become so significant that even the political level cannot remain idle. Players in card games are very sensitive to this signal: when an opponent starts proactively explaining the cards they hold, it is often not because they have a good hand, but because they are panicking. The market is the same; a true bottom does not require anyone to come out and offer reassurance. Where we are: BTC closed October down 7.3% and dipped to about $76,300 last week, testing support near its 100-day moving average. The macro link: Goldman estimates Big Tech capex is running near 100% of operating cash flow, so more borrowing may be needed. If post-midterm rules slow or delay data center builds, that spending gets riskier, and risk appetite can tighten across tech and crypto. Long-end yields under pressure add to it. The history: BTC ended Q4 lower in each of the last three midtModerna is releasing its Q3 earnings before the market opens today. Recently, after the phase 3 data for intismeran (personalized cancer vaccine) came out, the stock price surged significantly, and the market has very optimistic expectations for the pipeline. But let me clarify the reality: 1. The scientific breakthrough is real, but it hasn't yet translated into revenue. Intismeran + Keytruda in high-risk melanoma phase 3 trials reduced the risk of recurrence or death by about 42%, and the data is solid. However, the issues are: commercialization path, production scale, and payer pricing power have not been validated yet; recent contributions from other products (flu, RSV, etc.) remain limited; current revenue is still declining, and cash burn has not stopped. 2. Valuation has already outpaced fundamentals. The current stock price of 235 implies a value that all analysts believe far exceeds reality. Even optimistic DCF scenarios only support about $101, and more conservative valuations are around $60. In other words, the market has already priced in pipeline success for many years ahead. 3. The real focus of this earnings report is not the quarterly numbers themselves. Quarterly revenue is expected to be around 890 million (down about 12% year-over-year), with EPS expected to be a loss. The key points are: whether the full-year guidance of "up to 10% growth" can be maintained; whether expense control and cash runway continue to improve (year-end cash guidance was previously raised to 4.7-5.2 billion); and what management says about the pace of intismeran's follow-up (kidney cancer, etc.) and other pipelines. 4. Historical patterns for mRNA are overThree sessions of roughly $1.158B in US spot BTC ETF outflows show how quickly institutional demand can reverse under stress. JPMorgan's 2027 framework gives BTC a place in long-term assumptions, but 55% volatility and unstable correlations still limit its usefulness in a core allocation. The opportunity is real; the portfolio case remains conditional. #JPMBTCLongTermForecast #ModernaQ3VaccineSales My take on Moderna (MRNA) Q3: I am leaning YES on beating earnings. The bar is very low — consensus is -$1.10 EPS on ~$890M revenue, vs -$0.51 on $1.02B last year. In Q2 they already beat with -$1.97 on $145M revenue vs $103M expected. The real story is not COVID anymore, it's the cancer vaccine data. That is why the stock is up almost 8x from its low this year.There is a possibility that Moderna's Q3 earnings report will exceed expectations, mainly based on its recent record of surpassing expectations, a relatively low consensus threshold, and potential flexibility in international orders and cost control. However, the nature of this outperformance differs from Q1 and Q2: previously it was "outperformance under strong growth," whereas Q3 is more likely to be "losses smaller than expected or revenue decline less than expected against a backdrop of year-over-year revenue decline." Ultimately, the market's reaction to this earnings report will heavily depend on the gap between the actual revenue figure and the $890 million consensus, as well as whether management maintains guidance for full-year revenue growth (up to 10%) and year-end cash reserves ($4.7–5.2 billion). Maintaining guidance may stabilize market confidence more than a single quarter's earnings per share beat. #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 A couple of days ago I said BTC would return to 80,000, but don’t rush to move back in yet. It actually didn’t last a full day. Last night, the US stock market experienced an epic sell-off. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped as much as 11.6% intraday. Crypto took a hit along with it. BTC fell 5.58% in 24 hours, ETH dropped 7.69%. Over $1 billion in liquidations across the network, 88% of which were long positions. This morning BTC is around $76,000. Data from Odaily BlockWeeks and the market on the morning of November 6, real-time as of now. At the same time, the Democrats swept the midterm elections. Many institutions expect the CLARITY Act might be postponed until 2028. Many feel like the sky is falling, but I think this is like being in a relationship. You thought the other party would propose next year, but they say let’s cool off for two years first. It’s tough, but the relationship isn’t broken. Why do I say this? Last night the whole leaderboard was red except for the gold token XAUT, which rose 0.82% against the trend. Hong Kong just announced the gold token pegging standard: one token corresponds to one 400-ounce gold bar. Samsung Wallet launched Solana chain USDC accounts, covering about 82 million devices. Legislation is slowing down, but applications haven’t stopped. Stablecoins, RWA, tokenized assets are still moving forward under existing rules. This is the real confidence of this industry. So my current mindset is summed up in three sentences: First, macro risk appetite is declining, and Fed officials have started mentioning gradual rate hikes. Leverage should be reduced when necessary. Second, watch less the candlestick charts and more the implementation. RWA and stablecoins are the lines that can cross policy cycles. ThirdThe stock market is screaming, and the bond market is voting with its feet, the latter often being more honest. Today is a global risk-off day, and it's very clear where the money is flowing: China's 30-year government bond yield has fallen to 2.037%, hitting a new low since August 2025, and the 10-year yield has even hit a historic low; on the U.S. bond side, the 10-year yield has also dropped sharply to just above 4.8%. What does a falling yield mean? It means a large amount of capital is willing to accept lower interest just to shelter in the safest assets first. This is not what a "rate cut bull market" should look like; this is a real flight to safety. When signals from stocks and bonds conflict, don't just listen to the loud shouting from the stock side. Ask one more question: What exactly are the people rushing to buy bonds afraid of?$SOXL plunged 18.59% in 24 hours, but the bottom-fishing bulls are getting increasingly crowded. According to Binance futures data: The contract open interest value rose to 373 million U, with a large number of new positions entering during the plunge, both longs and shorts. The ratio of long to short in large accounts is close to 10:1, but the long to short position volume ratio is only 2:1, suggesting shorts may have larger average positions. The overall market long to short account ratio is close to 8:1, indicating strong bottom-fishing sentiment. The funding rate is as high as +0.13629% per 8 hours, meaning the cost of holding long positions is not low. The price keeps hitting new lows, bulls keep entering, but have yet to trigger a reversal. If the price continues to break down, it may trigger a new round of long stop-losses and forced liquidations.