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Market sentiment has gradually recovered over the past two days, and BTC's weekly structure is also strengthening, with bulls starting to test above 84000. ETH and popular altcoins are moving along but with different rhythms and risks, so they should be viewed separately.
BTC current price is $83,520, up 0.90% in 24 hours. The weekly structure is strengthening, and the mid-term trend is still intact. As long as this week's close isn't too bad, there is room for further upward movement. The focus above is first on 84000 to 85000; only a true breakout will open the chance to see 86000. On the downside, 82000 is the bottom line—if broken, this strengthening phase is invalidated, and a pullback to around 80000 for support is possible.
ETH current price is $2543, up 1.78% in 24 hours, stronger than BTC. The exchange rate shows signs of catching up; the next resistance is at 2600, and if it holds, then testing 2700. If BTC falls and drags it down, 2450 is the short-term defense level.
HYPE current price is $87, up 2.70% in 24 hours, showing the greatest elasticity. This wave is more about capital overflow driven by the overall market sentiment warming up, not by its own fundamentals. Liquidity and volatility are greater than mainstream coins; if BTC fails to break 84000, this high Beta pullback will be amplified multiple times, so position control is necessary when chasing highs.
The weekly strengthening gives bulls a reason, but before breaking 84000, buying on dips is more comfortable than chasing rallies.
$ETH $HYPE $BTC
#Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation #CPI and PPI releases imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test $DOGE PRINTED 0.08108, THEN STARTED STACKING HIGHER LOWS. Price now sits at 0.08679, inside a tight 24h range of 0.08502–0.08767. Still, 7D reads -9.05% while 90D shows +16.57%.
I never judge a bounce without timeframe context. Does this tight range build a base, or invite another test of 0.08108?$MAGIC短线转向，4小时为何还没认输
$MAGIC 24小时+22.16%，现价0.1235。表面上只是一次涨跌，真正的冲突却藏在周期里：1小时偏弱，4小时偏强。两张图给出相反答案时，最没用的做法就是挑一张自己喜欢的图相信到底。
当前1小时成交量约为前20根均量的1.00倍，活跃度仍在常态附近。这意味着关键位需要靠连续性确认：碰到、越过、站稳是三件不同的事，不能用一个瞬间替代整个过程。
再把镜头拉回24小时区间：低点0.0999，高点0.1468。现价0.1235处在这个区间的什么位置，会直接影响同一个信号的含义。靠近高点时，强势需要证明不是冲高回落；靠近低点时，反弹需要证明不是下跌中继。区间不是预测目标，只是用来检查眼前叙事有没有把风险藏起来。Bitcoin last week surged to 87,000 but faced resistance, quickly falling back from the high of 86,600 to stabilize at a low of 80,300. Over the weekend, market indicators completed their repair, rebounding upward to around 84,100. Today, pay close attention to the golden ratio level at 84,200; if the price effectively holds above this level, bullish momentum will further release.
Friends holding long positions that are underwater should still prioritize risk control. When the market rebounds near the cost line, you can reduce your position by half to reserve space for subsequent averaging down to lower your holding cost. Do not blindly add chips before reducing your position.
If the 84,000 level cannot be maintained intraday and the market pulls back again, support is expected in the 82,800-81,800 range. Those without positions can try to build a base long position in this range, with a second averaging down point waiting near 80,000; rebound resistance levels are 84,200, 86,500, and 88,000, with long-term targets at 90,000 and 96,000.
For ETH, only by holding above 2,586 can the bulls be confirmed to regain strength. Those without positions can build a base long position in the 2,515-2,475 support range, with a reserved averaging down point near 2,400; rebound resistance levels are 2,580, 2,700, and 2,800, with long-term targets at 3,000 and 3,300.
Currently, the market has rebounded above 83,500, with bulls having recovered half of the losses, indicating a gradual warming phase. For those still underwater, hold on!
$ETH $BTC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 This round of CPI and PPI are the core inflation data recently affecting the Fed's rate hike pricing and are also key dividing lines for risk assets. PPI represents upstream industrial product prices and can predict cost-side transmission pressure; CPI reflects terminal consumer prices, with the market focusing on core CPI, which excludes the more volatile energy and food sectors, and is also the inflation stickiness indicator most valued by the Fed.
Data above expectations means inflation rebound, raising the probability of rate hikes, making the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields likely to rise, and liquidity tightening expectations will suppress high-elasticity assets like the Nasdaq and crypto, putting pressure on BTC and ETH. If data is below expectations, inflation decline is confirmed, the market will lower subsequent rate hike expectations, U.S. Treasury yields will fall, benefiting risk asset rebounds. If data meets expectations, the market will likely first consolidate and digest, making it difficult to form a clear short-term trend.
Recently, rising oil prices have brought imported inflation, increasing the possibility of data exceeding expectations. Funds will watch in advance, and market volatility often quickly expands after data release. In the short term, focus on core CPI sub-items; compared to the overall reading, inflation stickiness is the core factor determining the subsequent interest rate narrative. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Watching the market late at night, all I see is emptiness.
Everyone says to follow the trend, but only those who short know how cold it is to go against human nature.
$MAGIC, short at 0.13769, current price 0.13199.
Unrealized profit +28.5U, +41.39%.
Clearly making money, yet I feel a sudden chill.
The previous order at 0.12572 was almost forcibly liquidated; now I grit my teeth and re-enter at a higher position. Margin 370U, liquidation price far at 0.21. This is not revenge, but reclaiming a bit of pitiful dignity from the market.
$ETH, short at 2504.41, current price 2543.32.
Unrealized loss -389.1U, -7.76%.
Like someone who once treated you well but you pushed away, now turning back and slapping me hard. Margin 5000U held down, liquidation price 2991. Not in a hurry, but watching it climb makes my heart feel like it’s being slowly dragged down.
$SOL, short at 109.73, current price 111.48.
Unrealized loss -35U, -15.94%.
It ultimately reversed. The candle in the wind yesterday has completely gone out today. Liquidation price 120.06, it doesn’t need to rise much to pull me out of my luck. I’m still holding on, but I don’t know if I’m waiting to break even or to give up.
#CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what else to watch in the October 15 earnings report? Has the SOL ETF fourteen-week myth been broken? The screen is full of "SOL ETF is finished" and "institutions have fled."
Last Friday, there was outflow every trading day, totaling $24.8 million, the largest single-week outflow since its launch.
Don't rush to cut losses yet. After seeing the following numbers, you might laugh out loud.
First, this "largest" is somewhat misleading.
The previous outflow record was $8.9 million. $24.8 million is nearly three times that, which sounds scary. But compare it with ETH: in the same week, ETH ETF outflow was $542 million, with nine consecutive days of bleeding. The outflow of SOL is just a fraction of ETH's. The small base makes it appear "record-breaking."
Second, who is selling? Those who have made profits.
SOL previously surged 41% in one go. If it were you, wouldn't you take some profits first? What's more, two weeks ago, SOL ETF just attracted a record single-week inflow of $188.2 million. This is profit-taking by those who gained, not a sign of no demand.
Third, the big money hasn't left at all.
The cumulative net inflow is still $1.58 billion, with a net inflow of $816.8 million since the beginning of this year. Morgan Stanley's MSOL and Invesco's QSOL were still buying against the trend last week. If there were a real retreat, these two would be the first to disappear.
Here's the twist: it's not just SOL that's flowing out.
In the same week, XRP ETF had a net inflow of $11.3 million against the trend, marking 12 consecutive weeks of positive inflows. This indicates money hasn't left the market; it's just switching tracks—from "large-cap blue chips" like BTC and ETH to "mid-cap narratives" like XRP and SOL. SOL just lost a small portion this week.
So my judgment is:
The first fourteen weeks were institutions getting to know SOL for the first time, from zero to one, relying on novelty and story. The current outflow is from one to many, relying on pricing and divergence. SOL is transitioning from a "speculative narrative" to an "infrastructure narrative," and this step always requires washing out those who can't hold on.
What really should be watched is large-scale outflows over several consecutive weeks, when "smart money" like MSOL and QSOL also start turning negative. One week of profit-taking is just normal turnover.
Those shouting "it's over" last week, how many times in fourteen weeks did they dare not buy when prices were rising? Now that it has dropped for a few days, they are the fastest to run.
Taking profits after a 41% rise is not a bear market; it's rational.
Those afraid of profit-taking will never make money from trends.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 先记录 $MUBARAK 的位置，再谈观点：现价0.06612，离1小时支撑0.06399约3.22%，离压力0.08361约26.45%。
$MUBARAK 跌到现在，最容易出现的错觉是：跌得多，就一定已经便宜。1小时偏弱、4小时偏弱，RSI分别为39和28。
我只保留一条上行确认——突破0.08361；也只保留一条下行否定条件——跌破0.06399。其余波动先当噪声。
如果必须先选一个验证点，你会盯压力确认还是支撑失守？
以上是行情观察，不构成投资建议。这里是币圈牛牛说。Challenge to break even before the end of October
Recording a current loss of 6900u
Performance recovery methods:
1. Continue holding onto losing positions, like a companion in the desert going out to find water while you wait. At this moment, confidence is more valuable than gold. After the companion returns with water, do not give up easily.
Review compared to yesterday's loss of 2700u, the profitable 200u mafic position was not closed and is deeply trapped.Three Major Market Catalysts This Week: CPI, Middle East Tensions, and the Midterm Elections A new week is underway, and I'm identifying the biggest potential market catalysts before making any moves. 1. Tuesday's CPI Report: The First Major Test The latest Fed minutes showed that many officials still see the possibility of further rate hikes, while the weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report added another layer of uncertainty. Now, the market is waiting for the next inflation reading. If C$ETH This is really a bit frustrating
The US spot Ethereum ETF has seen net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with another $542 million running off last week, marking the worst weekly performance since January this year
This data really looks uncomfortable
But interestingly, ETH actually rebounded about 2% over the weekend, returning to around 2540
So while the ETF side is busy retreating, the futures market is starting to push up again?
My biggest feeling about ETH right now is that the trend is really exhausting:
When it rises, it always feels like it's just short of breath, but when it falls, it does so decisively. After a hard-earned rebound, you have to worry about how many people are still ready to break even above
However, outflows are outflows, but if the market really wants to continue strengthening, you can't stubbornly hold short positions just because of negative news
The market never takes responsibility for taking care of our emotions
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Day 182 of live trading.
Currently, the market is experiencing a mild pullback rather than a strong attack. The cautious sentiment that had been suppressing the market has somewhat eased, but overall optimism is still lacking.
Geopolitically, the Middle East is stirring again, crude oil remains strong, gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, and external constraints have not been lifted; the depth and support of major cryptocurrencies remain intact, with no systemic risks observed for now.
$BTC is trading around 83,600, with 82,300 as a short-term buffer, and 81,000 as a more critical defense line. As long as 81,000 holds, the larger structural pattern remains intact.
You can keep your base positions; during this consolidation and accumulation phase, don’t get shaken out easily.
$ETH is around 2,500, with support near 2,450. It is relatively weaker than Bitcoin. The ongoing outflow from spot ETFs is suppressing it, but there is a dense liquidation zone for longs near 2,450, providing temporary support.
Don’t rush yet; wait to reclaim and stabilize above 2,500 before talking about strengthening.
$ZEC is around 1,230, with 1,200 as the defense line. Currently, it looks more like a leverage clearing; fundamentals are intact, and there is an upgrade vote and ETF expectations on October 20.
Overall, momentum is still building, and the direction may be revealed by the next candlestick.
Don’t lose your base positions; as long as key levels hold, there’s no need to panic. Add on confirmation signals. Patience will be key going forward; watch for when volume expands.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ The daily chart touched the middle band and then dropped back, stuck at 83530
$BTC reached a high of 84177 today, retreated after touching the Bollinger middle band, currently around 83530, exactly at the key intraday line; the daily EMA20 is about 83200, and the middle band is about 83950.
Outlook:
Hold above 83530 / 83200 → can test 83945, 84100 again
Close below 83530 and break 83200 → first look at 82280, then 81700 if broken
Volume hasn't caught up yet, don't lock in direction before Wednesday's inflation and Thursday's PPI $BTC A halt in attacks on energy sites would matter less as a headline than as a test of verification. Ukraine's stated willingness is conditional on details, while Moscow has not confirmed an agreement and further attacks were reported. With shipping risks also in focus, oil may keep pricing execution over rhetoric.
#RussiaUkraineTruceWatch 🚨 STRK unlocking is approaching! 127 million tokens, do the bears really have a guaranteed win?
Many people see token unlocking and their first reaction is that the price will drop.
But keep in mind: unlocking ≠ immediate selling. What truly affects the price are new supply, market expectations, and whether contract funds have positioned in advance.
📊 Before trading, focus on these 3 key points: ① Before unlocking, is the price continuously weakening? ② Is contract open interest increasing, or are funds withdrawing? ③ As unlocking nears, is there an abnormal surge in trading volume?
⚠️ Don’t just focus on the unlocking quantity. The market may have already priced in the negative news, which could lead to a reverse movement.
What do you think STRK’s price will most likely do before and after unlocking?
A. Drop in advance B. Rebound after negative news hits C. Consolidate and shake out
$BTC $STRK $ETH
#CryptoFinanceDivergence: Buy coins or buybacks? #USStockExploringTokenizationAndAllWeatherTrading $ZEC Bulls Are Stepping Up: Can the Price Rebound Toward $1,400? Brothers, $ZEC bears have been pushing hard for three consecutive days, but they still haven't managed to break the price lower. Now it's time to see whether the bulls can take control and drive the next move toward $1,400. I entered a long position at $1,277.67, while the current price is around $1,276.91. The position is practically flat, so there's no need to panic. Over the past few days, $ZEC has been gradually pulling back$SUI SUI: Is unlocking fear overtraded?
Yes, but not entirely.
"Unlocking = dumping" is an oversimplified narrative. The real key points are:
Who is unlocking (team/investors/foundation)
Is there lock-up/linear release
Did market makers absorb it
Can ecosystem TVL growth absorb selling pressure
Today SUI is at 1.10, the market discounts "new public chain + unlocking" as risk. But if BTC later surges to 90,000 and stablecoin net inflows return, SUI's rebound will be fiercer than AVAX/ADA.
My stance: SUI can be played, but as a "high beta lottery ticket" not as a "value investment."
Total funds ≤5%
Don't hold long-term waiting for 10x
Try small positions if 1.0 doesn't break
Take profits in batches above 1.25
Today is a neutral market, SUI sideways is just accumulating chips for exchange. When the real market comes, it will be stronger than old chains; when the tide recedes, it will also be worse than old chains. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Institutions continue to build positions, why does BTC still face pressure? $SUI $BTC $ETH $SOL
Today's trend: weak rebound, low quality.
BTC is currently around $83,600, up about 0.8% in 24 hours, ETH is near $2550. But this rally is driven by short covering: in the past 24 hours, $162 million was liquidated across the network, with short liquidations accounting for 69.5%, indicating a short squeeze rather than buying pressure.
How to play: hold back over the weekend, wait for signals.
· Don't chase the rally: the Fear & Greed Index rose to 69 (greed), but the prediction market shows a 67% chance of falling below 80,000 in October, indicating a divergence between sentiment and pricing, making chasing risky.
· Watch 83,000 closely: this is the average cost line for ETFs and a short-term watershed. Only if it holds can the rebound continue; if it doesn't hold, look down to 80,000 or even 77,000.
· The capital side is unsupportive: last week BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million, institutions are withdrawing, and altcoin rallies are more about existing supply battles.
Liquidity is poor over the weekend, spikes are normal. The real direction will likely be decided by next week's CPI. Acting now has a low cost-performance ratio.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? Did nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already done the work for me. Last night before sleeping, I saw $BOME's rebound was weak; every surge was just short of breath, no one caught it on the way up, and volume didn't keep up.
I judged it to be a heavy bull trap, so I signaled to open a short position. From 0.0011219 to 0.0010547, a +119.79% return, nailed it. The wait was worth it, the timing was perfect, those on board should have woken up laughing.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening random positions is the mistake. The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest.
First, close 80%, protect the remaining 20% at cost price. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don't give back the profit. Take profits when you should, don't be greedy for the last bit.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next shot, watch for a new structure. There are still opportunities, don't rush, I will notify you immediately.
$DOGE $ZEC DOGE 0.0867, I'm watching OKX, this number is almost the same as the profit from yesterday, still hovering around 0.086. A few days ago it dropped from 0.104 to 0.088, which made me lose so much I felt numb, bounced back to 0.086 just to recover some, now it's stuck here again, neither up nor down, like a lazy dog.
I glanced at the order book, buying and selling between 0.086-0.087 is quite calm, volume has shrunk a lot compared to that surge, the people chasing longs have left, what's left are some pretending to be dead and bottom-fishers. Support below is at 0.084-0.085, if it breaks down I have to seriously consider reducing positions; resistance above is at 0.088-0.09, if it can't break through that's weakness. The current price is stuck in the middle, the most uncomfortable position, cutting losses fears a rebound, holding fears further drop.
$DOGE My plan hasn't changed: the rest will be set with a trailing take profit, fully exit if it breaks below 0.084, consider buying more if it breaks above 0.088 with volume. DOGE has no new story this round, just an oversold rebound plus short covering, not a trend reversal. With floating profits in hand, securing gains is better than anything, don't wait for it to rebound then give it back.$XDP Damn it! This XDP market makes my scalp tingle, it's a pure capital showdown, tightly suppressed above 0.0225, and as soon as the buying stops, it immediately weakens. The candlestick pattern looks like it's been gnawed by a dog, obviously the manipulator is shaking the market, stabbing up and down fiercely.
Don't rush in, this kind of wild coin either yields big profits or suffers big losses. I choose to short high, directly shorting near 0.0225, with a stop loss above 0.0238; if it breaks, accept it, if not, wait for the waterfall.
If you want to follow, set up an ambush on the lower market card, don't go all in, and set your stop loss properly. This market is really intense, do you think this wave is a shakeout or a trend change? 🔥
👇👇👇BTC is currently trading at about $84,000, up 1.23% intraday. However, looking at a longer timeframe, it has dropped 4.1% over the past week, hitting a low of $80,427 during the session, the lowest since early September. The current rebound looks more like a technical correction after an oversell rather than a trend reversal. The technical outlook is weak. The daily MACD has already formed a death cross, with the DIF falling below the signal line, the histogram turning negative to -553, and the 4-hour RSI once dropping to a deeply oversold level of 21.15. The price broke below the lower Bollinger Band. The daily RSI is at 43.75, neutral to weak, neither oversold nor overbought, indicating the daily chart is still in a recovery phase. The key watershed is at $83,000 — this level overlaps with the average ETF buy-in cost and previous breakout range; failure to hold above it means a weak rebound. Resistance is at $87,354, support at $80,000; if broken, it will head straight to $78,000. The news is in a tug-of-war. The biggest pressure comes from U.S. Treasury bonds: the 10-year yield has risen to 5.3%, a new high since 2007, causing funds to flow from Bitcoin to fixed income products. ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million last week, ending the previous streak of continuous inflows. The Fed's September minutes were hawkish, with the possibility of more rate hikes this year. But two contrary signals are worth noting: funding rates on many major exchanges have turned negative, meaning shorts are paying longs, indicating high crowding; meanwhile, a large whale is selling BTC to buy ETH, exchanging 410 BTC for 14,300 ETH.Capital style switching!!!
$XRP stands out alone, with large holders still dominating the bulls
This week, ETF funds show clear differentiation
XRP spot ETF had a net inflow of $11.31 million last week
Becoming the only mainstream coin to receive institutional incremental funds
In contrast, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL spot ETFs all experienced net outflows
BTC net outflow of $681 million
ETH net outflow of $542 million
SOL net outflow of $24.81 million
Institutional funds are withdrawing from established large-cap coins
Starting small-scale rotation into targets like XRP
Looking at contract large holder position data
BTC large holder accounts long-short ratio is 1.4789
ETH large holder accounts long-short ratio is 2.0102
In both coin large holder groups, the number of long accounts remains higher
Although the proportion of longs has slightly declined compared to 24 hours ago
It is clearly stronger than 7 days ago
At the large holder level, there is no collective bearish exit
On one side, ETF institutional funds continue to flee BTC and ETH
On the other, contract large holders still maintain long positions
Market divergence is fully stretched
Operations of institutions and contract large holders show obvious divergence
Funds are switching back and forth between different sectors
The short-term market volatility pattern is difficult to break quickly
Focus next on whether fund rotation can continue
And whether large holder bulls will further reduce positions Here, going long on $OKB in the mid-term, this month the tokenization of US stocks is also considered an event catalyst.
This position has released the selling pressure from the funds chasing highs in the past few days, so it should be a relatively safe position. NEAR has been really strong recently. Last night, Bitcoin suddenly surged with volume, and as market sentiment picked up, it directly broke through the previous high resistance at 5.62. I really didn’t get on board this time.
If I had reacted a bit faster and jumped in when it broke 5.62, I would have caught this rally. Looking back now, it’s quite a pity. Sometimes the market is just like that—hesitate a bit, and the price won’t wait for you.
Currently, NEAR has risen to around 5.83, up 12% in 24 hours, with a high of 5.976, almost touching 6 dollars.
But after such a continuous rise, I’m not keen to chase it now. The daily and 4-hour charts are still strong, but the 15-minute chart has formed a death cross, indicating short-term momentum is weakening.
Right now, I’m watching two levels: whether it can break through 5.976 with volume, or if there will be buying support around 5.60 on a pullback. Of course, it’s best if it can push through directly. A pullback is normal, but the key is not to rush in just because it’s rising sharply.
I missed this move last night, so I’ll have to wait for the next opportunity.
$NEAR
#FirstNEARSpotETFListedInUS
#CPIandPPIReleaseUpcomingInterestRateHikeTest
#RussiaUkraineMayReachEnergyCeasefireAgreementProgressPendingConfirmation On the surface, everyone is waiting for the CPI, but the contract market has already quietly shifted its stance - at 5K here, is this really a recovery starting point, or just a false calm before the next round of squeeze? BTC is currently stuck around 83.5K, looking like a boring sideways move, but after checking a round of derivatives data, something feels off. The price hasn't moved much, open interest hasn't dropped, and the funding rate has cooled from being overheated back to near neutral. This combination usually doesn't mean "nothing's happening," but rather that both longs and shorts are adding positions, and no one wants to admit defeat first. First, let's talk about where the surface excitement is. Community sentiment is clearly being driven by Wednesday's US CPI, with many treating it like a direction button, as if the data release alone can decide the market side. But what the market really trades on is often not the data itself, but who is forced to liquidate before the data. The first resistance above is at 84.2K, and the truly meaningful recovery zone is between 85.7K and 86K, where many short-term shorts have their stop losses stacked. On the downside, if 82.2K is lost, then 81.5K and 80K become consecutive liquidation zones, with slippage potentially harsher than expected. From the derivatives perspective, the bullish logic is actually not weak. The cooling funding rate means some overheated leverage has been washed out, but open interest remains, indicating chips haven't dispersed. As long as the CPI doesn't explode, 84.2K will be reclaimed, and short covering will push the price quickly toward 85.7K. ETH and major altcoins will likely bounce along, and risk appetite will briefly recover. This is a typical squeeze path: fast, sharp, and giving no time to react. But the fragile point is also clear. High open interest combined with neutral funding essentially means heavy leverage on both sides, so triggering either side will amplify volatility. AsL "Uptober" turned into "Rekttober": ETF funds are quietly sabotaging
Where is the promised "Uptober"? The data contradicts expectations faster than imagined.
In the first week of October, Bitcoin spot ETFs reversed from a net inflow of $241.1 million to a net outflow of $678.9 million, a weekly reversal exceeding $900 million. Ethereum ETFs fared worse, with net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling $542.1 million for the week, the worst since January. Solana ETFs also ended a 14-week streak of inflows, with a weekly net outflow of $24.8 million.
Why is this worth attention? Price drops are not surprising, but the money leaving is. BTC is still holding at 83,000. Glassnode data shows that in the past 30 days, BTC's realized market cap increased by $12.8 billion, but actual new money was only about $4.9 billion. The remaining $7.9 billion is basically old money circulating at high levels, not new money entering. ETF outflows are just an external symptom of this structure.
Currently, the "stock game" hypothesis is more supported. Selling pressure comes from leverage and short-term chips, not spot holders collectively surrendering.
What to watch next? The FOMC on October 27-28, and whether ETF outflows continue to expand this week. If BTC holds 82,000 and ETF outflows slow down, it looks more like leverage clearing; if even ETFs accelerate fleeing, the story changes.
The "Uptober" script has been torn up; who writes the next page is still unknown.US Treasury 5.3%: The "culprit" draining crypto ETFs, or still the last golden opportunity?
Last week, a Solana ETF that had only seen inflows for 14 consecutive weeks experienced its first outflow.
Not just it. The Ethereum ETF saw nine consecutive days of withdrawals, with $540 million outflow in one week—the worst week since January this year. The Bitcoin ETF also ended three weeks of net inflows, shedding $680 million. Together, the three siblings saw about $1.25 billion withdrawn in one week.
Many people's first reaction: Are institutions bearish on crypto?
My view is that institutions are not bearish on crypto; there's a bigger factor pulling their money away.
That factor is the 10-year US Treasury yield, hovering around 5.3%, a multi-year high.
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2013 on September 23, with Powell saying "inflation is too high and has lasted too long." Yields surged, reaching 5.34% in early October. This means institutions can do nothing and lend money to the US government, earning a steady 5%+ annually.
If you were a fund manager, would you risk halving your investment to bet on a coin that generates no cash flow?
I call this "interest rate gravity." 5.3% is the gravitational pull; all non-interest-bearing assets, including crypto, gold, and growth stocks, are being dragged down. BTC fell from a high of 126,000 to a low of 63,000 in July, now rebounding near 84,000. ETF outflows aren't about bearish sentiment; it's gravity at work.
But I have to pour cold water: don't blame US Treasuries entirely. Data shows BTC has still risen 84% since early 2024 and has gained during high interest rate periods. Interest rates are gravity, but not the only gravity; beyond macro factors, there are oil prices, wars, and your own leverage.
So is this a golden opportunity?
First, bad news is already priced in. From the high, BTC has dropped one-third. During the 2022 rate hike cycle, it fell over 70%. Compared to the last cycle, this is moderate.
Second, the market is already betting on the "end of rate hikes." According to my data, the chance of another hike in October is just over 10%, and over 60% in December. Smart money bets the toughest hike is almost over.
Third, the turning point depends on one signal: yields reversing. In early October, yields dropped from 5.34% to 5.25%, and BTC immediately bounced back to 84,000. See, crypto prices watch not your candlesticks but the bond curve.
So what to do?
If you hold spot, don't panic sell; most of the bad news is already out.
If you haven't entered yet, don't rush to bottom-fish with full exposure. The most expensive thing about catching a falling knife isn't the knife itself, but thinking it has landed. Wait for a clear drop in US Treasury yields before buying; missing a peak is better than losing peace of mind.
US Treasury 5.3% is currently the biggest "gravitational pull" in the crypto market. The day this gravity disappears will be the start of capital inflows.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #sui Foundation invests $30 million in datanetwork
[Old Leek Observation] $SUI drops $30 million! DATA Network doesn't even want its own chain anymore?
The Sui Foundation announced today an investment of $30 million in the AI training data protocol DATA Network. The collaboration is not just a financial stake but a deeper ecological integration: DATA Network will migrate to Sui, and the original independent blockchain plan will be retired.
🔥 First, Sui aims to capture not only users but also AI infrastructure.
Trace, under DATA Network, is responsible for recording the source, contribution records, and usage authorization of AI training data, enabling AI companies to track where data comes from, whether it is authorized for use, and how contributors are compensated. According to data released by the project team, Trace has registered over 250 million contribution records and processes over 3 million receipts daily.
🔗 Second, DATA abandons its independent chain and shifts to the Sui ecosystem.
After migration, DATA Network will run natively as a protocol on Sui, and Walrus will become the default data storage layer for related applications. For Sui, this means introducing a set of infrastructure aimed at AI training data; for DATA, it means reducing the burden of independently maintaining a blockchain.Trump announced that the Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" takes effect immediately, and both sides have agreed — the news immediately attracted attention, but the reactions from both sides are not symmetrical, and the progress remains highly uncertain.
Zelensky's side expressed a relatively positive and conditional stance: he said the news was new to him, but as long as Russia truly stops attacking Ukraine's energy systems such as electricity, heating, and water supply, Ukraine is willing to stop strikes on Russian oil refining and diesel facilities, emphasizing that this is a "fair deal." Ukraine is also waiting for Washington to provide the start time and specific arrangements for the ceasefire. The Russian side remains silent, and the Kremlin has not yet confirmed.
In mid-September, Trump also announced a similar arrangement, but both sides continued to strike each other afterward, and the agreement did not materialize. Before this announcement, the US and Russia had just reached a phased arrangement regarding Russia's supply of diesel to the US and global markets, with diesel prices and sanctions adjustments as important background. Analysts point out that if the energy ceasefire can be truly implemented, it will help alleviate Ukraine's winter energy pressure and reduce the impact on the global fuel market; however, the trust foundation between the two sides is weak, and the lack of a monitoring mechanism means previous multiple local ceasefire attempts have not lasted.
Whether the Russian side truly accepts reciprocal arrangements and whether the agreement can be transformed from a statement into verifiable action remain to be seen. With winter approaching, targeting energy has always been an important means of pressure for both sides. Any "ceasefire" requires observable implementation and third-party supervision to be more credible. Progress is to be confirmed, and it is premature to characterize this as a substantive breakthrough. Continued observation of the subsequent actual actions and official statements from both sides is necessary. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 The biggest problem with Bitcoin is the global liquidity shortage.
He held above 80,000 for three months.
He never got the direction wrong once, with a 70% win rate.
But the account just didn’t move.
Three months ago he told me:
When liquidity returns, a breakout is inevitable.
The logic is sound. He kept saying that, so he didn’t sell.
His strategy translated into plain language:
If it drops, I hold; if it rises, I don’t leave; waiting for the moment when everyone comes back.
But in these three months, what’s really coming back isn’t the price, it’s the money.
New buyers can’t take over, old money is withdrawing.
The price can still hold,
because some refuse to admit losses, not because anyone is rushing to buy.
Later I told him one thing:
You’re not waiting for a breakout, you’re waiting for others to buy for you.
He has now closed his position. Getting the direction right doesn’t mean you know how to trade.
Knowing the direction and still being able to exit alive when no one is taking over—that’s what trading is.On October 11, Trump suddenly announced on Truth Social that the Russia-Ukraine war immediately entered an "energy ceasefire" status, with both sides agreeing and warning "not to sabotage". This is another high-profile statement following a similar declaration in mid-September.
The so-called "energy ceasefire" mainly refers to both sides stopping attacks on each other's energy-related facilities, including refineries, power plants, electricity and heating systems, etc.
Ukrainian President Zelensky responded that this news was also new to him but clearly stated: if Russia agrees to stop striking Ukraine's energy and critical infrastructure, Ukraine is willing to simultaneously stop attacks on Russian diesel facilities and refineries. He emphasized, "We are ready and will accept," while communicating with NATO Secretary General, the Canadian Prime Minister, and others, awaiting specific details from the U.S.
The Kremlin has not yet officially confirmed this. Previously in September, Trump also announced that both sides agreed not to target each other's energy facilities, but subsequent related strikes occurred, and the agreement did not truly take effect. Around this announcement, the U.S. also promoted arrangements for Russia to supply diesel to the global market in phases, linking with the energy ceasefire topic.
The specific scope, supervision mechanisms, and effective timeline of the agreement have not been disclosed. Whether both sides have truly reached consensus and can sustain implementation remains to be seen. With winter approaching, the security of energy facilities is crucial for the livelihood of Ukrainians and Russian exports. Any substantive progress could directly impact the war situation and the international energy market. Continued attention to official follow-up statements is warranted.#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 $NG NG has dropped, but the decline is very small. This doesn't need much concern; natural gas currently follows a seasonal trend (heating demand in winter), which is different from the logic of crude oil! Let's give it a chance to pull back a bit.Many many many many people ask what this tool is
Let me answer again:
This is a tool I created myself by writing down the indicators and trading logic I usually use to watch projects and had the tech team build it for me. It is my own tool, not open to the public, but a few trader friends asked so I opened it up a bit. Here's a summary of its functions:
Secondary level
1. Observation and judgment of selected coins: Because if the system automatically pushes, there would be too many every day to keep up with, so I made a selection feature. For coins I follow, I can see recent changes in open interest (oi), volume, fees, on-chain positions, borrowing rates, social media heat, news, etc., then combine some fixed indicators to judge whether the bias is bullish or bearish.
2. Trading opportunities: It filters and pushes some coins worth attention based on the relationship between oi and fdv, fees, borrowing rates, oi positions, and so on.
3. Project memo: It records some coins' trading methods and stages for later analysis and reference.
Currently, there is no automated trading yet; I am still adjusting precision. Also, this tool relies heavily on my subjective logical judgments, so its assessments differ a lot from other platforms. At present, my accuracy rate is still quite high.
Primary level
The primary level mainly involves quickly developing corresponding monitoring tools when new things come out. Usually, it collects some whale addresses and performs position correlation analysis on some addresses, monitoring their actions to give signals.🚨 Behind BTC, ETH, and SOL, there are three completely different selling pressure logics! What truly affects the market may not be just the candlestick chart.
Many people focus on price fluctuations but overlook a key question: who exactly is selling the coins in the market? And why must they sell?
When BTC is consolidating sideways, miners, ETH stakers, and SOL validators face distinctly different income structures and risks.
⛏️ $BTC｜After the halving, how much survival pressure do miners face?
Halving reduces block rewards. If transaction fees cannot cover the income gap, some miners must recalculate their costs. Electricity bills, equipment maintenance, and debt payments may force miners with tight cash flow to sell BTC.
But note, miners selling coins does not necessarily mean bearish sentiment. Sometimes, they are just covering operating costs. What’s truly worth observing is miners’ profitability, capital reserves, and changes in on-chain transfers to exchanges.
🔒 $ETH｜Does stable staking yield mean no selling pressure?
Staking earns protocol rewards, but yield does not equal actual profit, nor does it guarantee breaking even when the coin price falls.
ETH staking does affect circulating supply, but unstaking does not mean all tokens will be sold immediately. What really needs attention are the staking exit queue, net staking changes, and fund flows to exchanges.
Lock-up can change the timing of selling but cannot eliminate the possibility of selling.
⚡ $SOL｜Why do validator incomes depend more on ecosystem activity?
SOL validators$BWET crude oil is being transported via a detour.
Because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, all crude oil has to go around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-15 days to the voyage, naturally causing freight costs to skyrocket. The higher the freight, the more severe the geopolitical blockade, which indirectly confirms that Iran will definitely not yield in the short term.
Let's wait and see.📌 Bitcoin's Control: Responding to Institutional Capital Flows and Macro Headwinds
- BTC is trading around $83,600, experiencing a weak rebound, pressured by heavy weekly consolidation and liquidation shocks below $81,000.
- Declining macro risk appetite and outflows from spot ETFs (approximately $1 billion monthly combined outflow for BTC/ETH) are the main institutional drag factors.
- Market divergence is evident: large-cap coins (ETH, SOL) reflect BTC weakness, while some mid-cap coins (FIL, ICP, NEAR) rise on isolated momentum.
🎯 Actionable Insights:
- Closely monitor the $81,000 support level; if BTC breaks below $81,000 amid continued ETF outflows, immediately reduce high-beta spot exposure and lower leverage.
- Avoid broad market long leverage; selectively trade relatively strong momentum coins (such as NEAR, FIL) and use tight trailing stop losses.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Information is based on article data analysis for reference only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any decisions. After trading for a long time, I realized the hardest thing to change isn’t misreading the market, but controlling my own hands.
I want to take profits as soon as I earn a little, but when I lose, I always think about waiting a bit longer, and end up giving back the profits little by little.
Although $NEAR has been overall profitable this past month, I really need to change this trading habit. Moving forward, rather than chasing bigger gains, I want to first learn to hold onto the profits I should keep and decisively cut losses when necessary.
The market is there every day, but mindset and discipline are the keys to long-term trading.
Do you experience this too when trading? Can’t hold onto profits, but end up holding losses longer and longer? 👀
$NEAR #CryptoTradingETH touched 2500, I'll be honest—this is the critical line between bulls and bears.
On one side, ETFs have had a net outflow of $542 million over 9 consecutive days, with BlackRock alone pulling out $477 million, marking the worst record this year; on the other side, whales secretly bought 166,000 ETH in 72 hours, worth over $400 million. Institutions are withdrawing, whales are accumulating.
Bulls hold strong cards: Glamsterdam upgrade activated on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, ePBS implemented, Gas limit pushed toward 200 million, staking rate reached 35%, and supply continues to be locked. Bears are not weak either: price dropped from 2779 down to 2406, 2500 was tested four times in the past two weeks, each time being rejected; BitMine holds 6.016 million ETH, just 100,000 short of the 5% holding cap, the largest buyer is about to exit.
Only a firm hold above 2587 confirms a bottom; losing 2500 will directly test the 2445 liquidation zone. The CPI on October 14 is the next catalyst. I'm holding my spot without moving, absolutely no chasing highs. $ETHHow long can this rebound in the US stock market last?
After digesting the negative news, capital flows back into heavyweights like $NVDA and $MSFT; the real test is just beginning.
On the macro side, the US September CPI is about to be released. The market is betting on no rate hike in October, but Middle East geopolitical conflicts are disturbing oil prices, and the risk of secondary inflation may force the Fed to turn hawkish.
On the micro side, the Q3 earnings season kicks off.
▶️ Financial giants
JPMorgan $JPM and Goldman Sachs $GS report earnings, testing economic and credit resilience.
▶️ Chip bellwethers
ASML $ASML and TSMC $TSM take the stage. The focus is on ASML's EUV order volume and TSMC's outlook on CoWoS capacity and real AI demand.
Everyone looks at the earnings numbers, but I see AI shifting from capital expenditure frenzy to ROI validation. In the first two quarters, as long as money was poured into AI, stock prices rose; now the market wants to see real returns. If chip giants' guidance falls short of expectations, tech stocks will face valuation corrections.
This week will likely see high-level volatility. If TSMC's guidance exceeds expectations and CPI cools down, tech stocks will start a new rally. Conversely, if oil prices soar combined with weak guidance, a pullback is inevitable. Do you have confidence in this semiconductor guidance?
$NVDA $MSFT $TSM
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? How much more can $NEAR rise?
NEAR has increased by one and a half times in a month, and the comment section is full of calculations on how much more it can go up. But if you break down this bullish candlestick, the rise is actually blood forced out of the shorts, not new money actively building a base position.
In the past 24 hours, it pulled from 5.2 to 5.9, with trading volume hitting 1 billion. It looks fierce, but breaking down the volume shows the latter part was shorts being squeezed out—1.15 billion liquidations across the network that day, with shorts accounting for 66%, and NEAR itself had over 6 million short positions trapped. This kind of rise is called a short squeeze, not accumulation. Once the short squeeze stops, the price lacks that spark.
The structure has also peaked. The hourly RSI hit 78, the daily chart is overbought, perpetual contracts hold over 1.3 billion, funding rates have turned positive, and bulls are fully leveraged at the top. The resistance from 5.92 to 6.0 is the intraday previous high; beyond that, from 6.2 to 6.5, is all the profit-taking accumulated from this round of rising from the 2-dollar range. To push higher, real money needs to hold this stack, not rely on short covering.
Supporting the narrative are Intents buybacks and Bitwise's ETF, but the ETF has only accumulated over 70 million, accounting for 1% of market cap, and on-chain buybacks monthly amount to just over 10 million—which is a drop in the bucket compared to the daily 1 billion volume. What’s driving the rise is the story, not the money taking the risk.
So the question "how much more can it rise" doesn’t have the answer on the bulls’ side. If it can’t break through 5.92, this bullish candlestick, pulled up by short covering, will turn into bulls stepping on each other. Shorts are waiting for that moment when RSI turns down from overbought and positions start to decrease.APT Unlock Landing: First surged to 0.9655, then the unlock dumped sharply to 0.8376, but was bought back to 0.9, money is voting with its feet to verify support.
Yesterday's message said "Watch for volume to hold above 0.9, or it's a bullish confirmation with a pullback to 0.89"; today's answer basically came out: the four-year unlock ended today, the market first surged to 0.9655, then chips were truly dumped, dropping to 0.8376 at one point, but did not break the level, then buying pressure brought it back to 0.9010—meaning the 0.89-0.90 support zone was truly tested with real money.
Market view: current price 0.9010, basically flat in 24h, daily range 0.83 to 0.97, turnover 5.46 million USDT; technical RSI corrected from yesterday's overbought 75 to 50.7, price returned to the Bollinger middle band, MACD just turned up below zero line, sentiment and position cleaner than yesterday.
Logic remains intact: after the four-year unlock ends, monthly releases cut by 60% to 4.54 million tokens, staking annualized yield lowered, 2.1 billion hard cap, 210 million locked, inflation expectation is downward; today's surge, pullback, and rebound indicate the reduced supply expectation remains, only short-term profit-taking and unlock chips are rotating.
Next to watch: 0.8906 to 0.8953 is the support zone, 0.9416 is resistance; buy orders occupy 76% of the order book, but 5.46 million USDT turnover is not thick, avoid heavy positions. DYOR, not investment advice.
#APT #Aptos #Layer1Just pulled the latest contract positions of Brother Maji from the chain, and after reading it, I can only sigh that this position is really bold.
On BTC, he opened a 40x short with 243 BTC contracts, currently floating profit nearly $260,000, and the funding fee can still collect over $50,000. As long as BTC doesn't suddenly surge, this position is like a stable cash machine.
ETH is a 25x long with over 8,700 ETH trapped inside, floating loss already over $400,000, and still has to keep paying funding fees. The entry price is 2546; although there's still some distance from the liquidation price, the loss keeps slowly expanding.
The most thrilling is HYPE, a 5x short with 230,000 contracts, floating loss directly $4.86 million. Fortunately, shorts are clustered, and the funding fee is reversed, bringing in $1.02 million, meaning the shorts in the market pay him rent daily. Entry price 63.9, liquidation price 106.6.
In short, his strategy is to earn and lose at the same time. The money earned from the BTC short is used to cover losses from the ETH long and HYPE short, using profitable positions to subsidize trapped positions.
However, high-leverage hedging is not as stable as imagined. Once the market moves into an extreme one-sided trend, one side makes huge profits while the other side faces cascading liquidations, and the risk instantly magnifies.
Many people are discussing whether Brother Maji's heavy positions can hold until the end. Just watch the positions of the giant whale; ordinary people must not copy this. This kind of strategy has a very low tolerance for errors.The account is experiencing a rollercoaster, with $ETH desperately printing money upfront, $DOGE bleeding heavily in the background, and $LAB joining the chaos, dragging the whole portfolio down into the gutter.
$ETH ETH
Entry price 2714.59, current price 2491.23.
Full position 20X, unrealized profit +118U, ROI +179%.
This time, Ethereum finally showed some resilience, plummeting all the way down but holding the account up alone. Still holding, watching 2400, just don’t drop the ball.
$DOGE DOGE (a pure bloodsucker)
Entry price 0.08272, current price 0.084647.
Full position 20X, unrealized loss -393U, ROI -45%.
This one shows no mercy, pushing up against the trend, eating up all the ETH profits and then some. The position is heavy, margin is tight; if it keeps jumping around, I’ll decisively cut losses and accept defeat, no stubborn holding.
$LAB LAB (the unlucky newbie)
Entry price 0.05375, current price 0.0538682.
Isolated margin 10X, unrealized loss -14U, ROI -3.34%.
A small new short position, got pushed right after entry, currently taking hits. Fortunately, it’s isolated margin, so losses are limited. Holding for now to observe; if no improvement, will exit.
#CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what to watch for in the October 15 earnings report? Fifteen-minute weak divergence, one-hour MACD underwater, is this how you convince yourself to be bearish? Those trapped short sellers probably think the same. But why don't you look at the four-hour chart? You can enter long positions around 83200 and 2520. Asymmetric odds, extremely high risk-reward ratio In this round, can it go up from one to many?
$STRK has already shown strong performance. It rose about 34% in the past 24 hours and about 132% in a week. The strength of this rise is indeed outstanding.
But now I want to distinguish whether it is running its own market or will drive more similar coins. If only it keeps surging fast while other coins react limitedly, we cannot directly infer that the entire direction deserves higher expectations.
Single coin strength can continue, but market diffusion requires more evidence. I will acknowledge its rise while paying attention to whether the strength gap narrows. If the gap keeps widening, it means selecting coins is still more important than broadly favoring one direction.
$ARB has already reacted but has not completely shaken off the intra-week decline. It rose about 6.5% in the past 24 hours but still fell about 1.4% in a week.
This rebound is worth watching; the next goal is to turn the recovery into new gains. We cannot assume that just because it moved along, it can replicate the gains of stronger coins later; each coin’s buying power still needs to prove itself.
$OP’s phase performance is more consistent. In the evening update, it rose about 3.7% in 24 hours, about 5.4% in a week, and about 45% in a month.
It’s not that exaggerated, but it is rising daily, weekly, and monthly. I’m more focused on whether it can maintain this pace going forward. If several coins gradually strengthen, the coverage of this market rally can be considered expanded, rather than just the excitement of one coin.7u challenge to reach 100 million!
Day 52
Principal 7u, target 100 million
Currently: 3750u
Living cost: 2950u
Available funds: 800u+
Ran 5 kilometers yesterday, feeling refreshed all over.
In the past two days, I watched a conversation with Brother Sun. He was deeply hurt by his ex-girlfriend’s ex-boyfriend, whose legs were thicker than a hippo’s, which inspired him to vow to become a lean-muscle version of Brother Sun.
In the conversation, Brother Sun was very honest and open. Most importantly, he put forward a viewpoint: the body is a person’s own server and must be actively upgraded.
I think he’s absolutely right, so now I not only run but also do squats, glute bridges, and push-ups to build lean muscle. This is a bull market; only strong physical capital can last until the end.
Regarding financial capital, on day 35, my available funds were still 1900u, but now only 800u.
I calculated my living cost, about 60u per day. If I don’t keep earning, 800u will last roughly 13 days.
Contracts and memes are amplifiers, and amplifiers need principal. In the past half month, the only thing that has been injecting funds into me is writing content. So I still have to sit here and write this.
I’m still holding long positions in Bitcoin $BTC, which has pulled back quite a bit;
Long positions in $PUMP lost a bit, but it’s okay;
$PONS’s fundamental data is still very poor, so I’m hesitant to go long;
Continuously watching ena and ondo.
If it were you, with 800u, what would you do? PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%. If this comes true, risk asset valuations will come under pressure, with UNI, as a high-beta asset, being the first to be affected. I tend to believe that a short-term rebound will not change the medium-term pressure. From the capital perspective, it rose 3% in 24 hours but the volume was only 9.567 million, indicating weak momentum; the funding rate of 0.003% shows bulls are paying a slight premium, with open interest at 5.771 million showing no significant increase, reflecting cautious sentiment. The bid-ask ratio is 0.62, with selling pressure dominant. The 1-hour chart is rising but still 2.8% below the high, and the 4-hour chart remains down 23.41% from the high, indicating the rebound is a correction rather than a reversal. Strategically, lightly short at 7.845 on the rebound, stop loss at 7.935, target 7.505; if it pulls back to 7.455 and stabilizes, consider a short-term long, stop loss 7.385, target 7.685. Keep position size within 10%, and set strict stop losses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI#PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%
#PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% $UNI #PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%# If long-term rates really surge to 6%, risk asset valuations will be further pressured, and SKHYNIX will not be able to stand alone. I lean short-term bearish. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both declining; the current price of 1217.7 has fallen 11.85% from the 4-hour high, down 0.7% in 24h, with a trading volume of only 39,000. The shrinking volume and slow decline indicate light selling pressure but even weaker support. The top 10 buy orders are 321 versus 211 sell orders, with buyers temporarily dominant. The funding rate of 0.0331% remains slightly bullish, but the 37,000 open interest and crowded longs become a hidden risk. Light short positions can be tried on a rebound near 1231.5, with a stop loss at 1243.7 and a target at 1198.3; if it pulls back to 1196.5 and stabilizes, a short-term long can be taken, with a stop loss at 1183.9 and a target at 1216.4. Single position size should not exceed 5%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$SKHYNIX#PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%
#PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% $SKHYNIX $ETH bounced hard off $2,400 and is holding $2,540 — right above the $2,450–$2,500 zone that just flipped back in bulls' favor. A daily close above $2,500 keeps this bounce alive toward $2,650–$2,750, where September's sellers are stacked. But ETF flows are still bleeding — nine straight outflow days — so every rally stays guilty until proven innocent. Whales stacking 166K ETH underneath is the only real counterweight. Lose $2,450 and the 50-week EMA near $2,382 then $2,225 come into play fast.