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Cousin's Diary: October 13, 2026, 8:04 AM
The crypto market is accelerating downward, with the three major coins simultaneously hitting recent lows. ETF funds are fully withdrawing, awaiting CPI guidance.
Main Asset Market
$BTC: Around $81803. Total network open interest is $55.05 billion, a slight 1.28% increase in 24H. Price is falling while open interest rises, indicating shorts are adding positions. Binance rate +0.0019%, OKX +0.0066%.
$ETH: Around $2445, breaking below the lower boundary of the whale liquidation zone. $2,401 is the critical line for bulls; breaking it will trigger $553 million long liquidation. Binance rate -0.0033%, OKX -0.0017%, shorts dominate.
$SOL: Around $105.78, 24H liquidations total $10.89 million, longs account for 94%, bulls are suffering the harshest unilateral washout. Open interest is $7.01 billion, down 3.91% in 24H, deleveraging is ongoing.
💡 Trading Suggestions
$BTC: Do not rush to bottom-fish; wait for volume expansion and a stop in the decline near $80000.
ETH: $2401 is the critical line; strictly exit if broken.
SOL: Do not chase shorts; wait for open interest to stabilize and rates to turn positive before reassessing.
Before CPI release, keep low leverage and control positions; avoid premature speculation. $ETH Negative news: ETH breaks the defense line, even whale repositioning can't hold it
Bro, this isn't just a drop without underwear, they've even torn off the fig leaf.
From 2578 all the way down to 2431, ETH current price 2436, a nearly 4% intraday plunge, brutally breaking through the so-called iron bottom at 2500.
That whale mentioned in the news sold 410 BTC on Hyperliquid and immediately bought ETH, supposedly bottom fishing, right? But still got crushed by the market's selling pressure.
CPI hasn't come out tomorrow night yet, with US stocks bleeding and funds seeking safety, the manipulators are taking advantage of the macro vacuum to launch a surprise attack.
This volume-driven sell-off has blown up long contracts all over again. The market is now full of panic sellers fleeing, and hardly anyone dares to catch the falling knives.
The bigger the drop, the easier it is to confuse people. Tomorrow night is like opening a blind box; right now, besides watching the show, there's really no other move.$BTC just hit 84,200 and got smacked down, falling back to 83,625; ETH surged from 2,492 to 2,365, now stuck at 2,523. One is a fake breakout, the other just started to rise, the market is full of drama.
1-hour chart: BTC's red bars remain, DIF at 195.1, MACD at 4.6, golden cross still alive; but J value is only 44.2, the throttle is easing. Upper boundary 84,244, lower boundary 83,320, break either side and follow that side. ETH also has a golden cross, J value 56.89, sentiment lukewarm; resistance at 2,549, support at 2,517, don't get ahead before the range breaks.
But today's volatility is just the appetizer. Tuesday brings a triple release of earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citibank; Wednesday sees the US September CPI report, with an annual forecast of 3.6%, and core month-on-month possibly dropping to 0.2%. This is the real judge. If data is hotter than expected, the rebound could quickly turn into a bull trap; if data cools, bears will panic again.
The hardest part is the hands: chasing risks catching the knife; not chasing risks missing out. Do you choose to test with a small position or wait dead still for the CPI?ETH fell below the $2,500 mark today (October 13), currently trading around $2,499, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.1%. Compared to BTC, ETH's recent performance remains weak, with a 12-month drop of approximately 42.5%, far exceeding BTC's 31.4%.
The core drag is the capital flow. The Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, with a cumulative outflow of about $635 million in October, and a single-day maximum outflow reaching $202 million. The continuous withdrawal of institutional buying power leaves ETH lacking support.
On-chain signals indicate selling pressure. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun recently transferred about 2,160 ETH (approximately $5.52 million) to exchanges, intensifying short-term selling pressure. Coupled with Middle East geopolitical risks pushing up oil prices and persistent Federal Reserve tightening expectations, overall risk appetite remains under pressure.
Technically, ETH is at a critical decision point. The $2,500 level is both a psychological integer barrier and the resistance level before the September breakout. If the daily close is below this level, it may open a downward space toward $2,400-$2,450; if it holds, a technical rebound after overselling is possible.Take a look at the current $BTC supply distribution—specifically, how much supply is in profit and how much is at a loss. This metric often marks the psychological zones where belief shifts occur. When too much supply is in profit, holders start to get restless, and we also see distribution behavior. When too much supply falls into loss, it forms a pattern of capitulation selling, and smart money begins buying amid the panic.
Currently, we are in such a zone: a considerable portion of the supply is in profit, but not to the point of euphoria. If the market structure remains intact, this actually favors the continuation of the trend. The real risk lies in if the price consolidates here for too long, and the profitable supply starts exiting one after another without new demand stepping in to absorb it.
Observing price trends and liquidity changes together—when these three confirm each other, entry and exit signals become clearer. If we see a surge in profitable supply while the price stagnates, that is a distribution warning. If the proportion of profitable supply shrinks while the price holds higher lows, that indicates accumulation is quietly underway. $ETH $ZEC $MAGIC 2026.10.13 SOL & ZEC Market Daily Report
Intraday: The short-term bearish momentum for both coins is very strong, with bare K continuing to probe lower. The intraday strategy is mainly to short on rallies.
SOL: Resistance at 109 (aggressive short), 113 (conservative short); Support at 104 (aggressive long), 100 (conservative long).
ZEC: Resistance at 1230 (aggressive short), 1290 (conservative short); Support at 1150 (aggressive long), 1110 (conservative long).
Mid to long term: The major uptrend for SOL has not been broken; the current phase is a pullback within the uptrend, not a reversal. Wait to build long positions at lower levels.
ZEC has had a huge prior increase and is currently in a sharp correction phase. Do not rush to bottom-fish mid to long term. First observe the effectiveness of support around 1110; if it holds, consider low long positions. If it breaks, deeper downside space will open.
Overall, short-term selling pressure is heavy. Do not impulsively chase longs; patiently wait for price stabilization signals.
Strictly control position size, enforce stop losses, do not hold losing positions, do not add to losing positions.
Personal advice, for reference only, profit and loss at your own risk. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report? $BTC $ETH $ZEC Even though sol hit a new low
it doesn't affect everyone opening contracts on SOL at all
The open interest is actually still climbing...
I believe the short positions on sol
have a good chance to move a long way further
$SOL #Ledger investigation update: theft temporarily concentrated in a single channel. According to the news, MMT is not involved, but trust in hardware wallets has been shaken, which easily drags down sentiment for small-cap coins. I judge the short term to still be bearish, with weak rebounds.
Current price 0.1727, down 3.2% in 24h, trading volume 647,000, liquidity is thin. Both 1-hour and 4-hour trends are downward, having fallen 9.77% from the 4-hour high. Funding rate 0.0050% remains positive, longs pay fees, open interest 8,792,000, sentiment not cleared. Order book buy/sell ratio 1.05, buyers slightly dominant, 0.1693 is near-term support, 0.1788 is resistance.
Strategy: light short positions at rebound to 0.1759, stop loss at 0.1802, target 0.1668; if it falls to 0.1681 and stabilizes, consider short-term long, stop loss 0.1644, target 0.1736. Position size controlled within 10%, exit on breakout.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$MMT #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation
#Ledger investigation update: theft temporarily concentrated in a single channel $MMT CPI hasn't been released yet, but prices have already settled.
$BTC is reported at 83406, $ETH at 2550, $SOL at 111.
What does this price level mean: staying flat, waiting for the number on the 14th.
Bloomberg's expectation is overall inflation going up, core inflation going down.
A common misunderstanding: core going down does not mean less pressure.
It just means oil prices haven't seeped into other items yet.
The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.36%, the 30-year is the highest since 2002.
With interest rates still high, risk assets can't lift their heads.
The market gives only a 17% chance of a rate hike in October, but 71.6% in December.
I originally thought inflation easing would bring relief, but it doesn't.
The premise for relief is yields bowing first.
Without that premise, sideways movement will continue.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $BTC $ETH $ETH is currently priced around 2,447 USDT, with a narrow range seen at 2,443-2,532: 2,443 is today's low and the most immediate support; if broken, watch the previous low at 2,406. The first resistance above is 2,500-2,532, with 2,532 near the MA7, and further above is the MA25 around 2,646. ETH daily MACD also maintains a death cross, now on the 14th candle, with DIF at -12.97, DEA at 22.72, and the green histogram expanding from -33.38 to -35.70, indicating bearish momentum is still releasing, with no sign of a golden cross yet; the price is also below both MA7 and MA25, with the super trend pointing down, reference value about 2,754, so the daily structure is currently weaker than BTC. However, RSI(6) is about 25.10, already in the oversold zone, suggesting volatility may increase or technical correction may occur, but oversold itself does not guarantee a trend reversal. If ETH can reclaim 2,500-2,532, the monthly MACD green histogram narrowing would support the sustainability of the recovery; if 2,443 and then 2,406 are successively lost, downward pressure may continue. $BTC $ZEC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing rate hike expectations 快照：2026-10-13 07:55:31（Asia/Shanghai）。当前未结束K线可能参与实时预警。 扫描：核心95个，成功87个，失败8个；当前涨幅Top20对过去48小时信号提前命中率：10.0%（2/20）。 【正式提前预警（最多3个）】 暂无满足条件的标的。 【预备观察（最多5个）】 1. STX-USDT｜基础8｜质量96｜24H额6.76百万 现价 0.4108｜入场 0.4157～0.4219355｜触发 0.4157 止损 0.3722315｜止盈1 0.48869712｜止盈2 0.53528338 依据：接近日线45日箱体上沿、4H低点抬高、4H双底收回；日/4H放量 2.95/4.68；24H 2.93%，7日 8.30%。等待进入入场区并确认触发 2. PYTH-USDT｜基础7｜质量77｜24H额4.34百万 现价 0.08126｜入场 0.0887～0.0900305｜触发 0.0887 止损 0.0749585｜止盈1 0.11097537｜止盈2 0.12538212 依据：4H双底收回；日/4H放量 2.62/0.76；24H 3.31%，7日Observation: Saylor is hyping again, doubling in 7 years sounds really tempting
The big players are clearly shouting orders frantically, getting anxious.
Strategy boldly claims to double the BTC holdings per share within 7 years, which breaks down to a 10% annual growth.
This boast sounds loud, but essentially it's still the same "issuing bonds to buy coins" financial game.
The long-term logic is indeed solid, but what's the current situation? The market has fallen below 82,000, ETH has dropped under 2,450, CPI is under major scrutiny, and all funds are fleeing to safety.
At this time, constantly releasing such long-term positive news is just a drop in the bucket for the current market, merely pie in the sky.
The big players really want to pump the market, but whether the market acknowledges it depends on the macroeconomic conditions. For us onlookers, just enjoy the show; the big hype will take time to mature.PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%, putting pressure on risk assets. SOL fell 5% today to 105.84. I judge the short-term trend to be weak and volatile, but there is still buying support below. The 4-hour downtrend remains unchanged, with a 14.68% pullback from the high, while the 1-hour uptrend is only 0.13% from the low. 105.33 is a key support; if broken, look to 103.87. Resistance is at 107.62; only a breakout there would signal a rebound. Funding rate at 0.0095% is relatively neutral, with open interest at 3.091 million and volume at 9.164 million. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.17, slightly favoring buyers, and sentiment is not panicked. Trading plan: lightly buy on a pullback to 105.47, stop loss at 103.85, target 107.58; if volume breaks below 103.85, reverse to short, stop loss at 105.62, target 101.93. Position size should not exceed 20%, with strict stop loss on breakouts.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOL#PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%
#PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% $SOL Bond market alarm sounded, PIMCO predicts the 10-year US Treasury yield could surge to 6%, risk assets under pressure, KAITO is also unlikely to remain unaffected, I tend to remain bearish in the short term. Looking at the market, after a 5.8% drop in 24 hours, the current price is 0.3033, only 1.51% above the 4-hour low, sellers have 122,000 orders suppressing buyers' 98,000, strength ratio 0.81, funding rate 0.0017% but with nearly ten million positions, longs remain crowded and unresolved. Strategy-wise, lightly short on a rebound near 0.3117, stop loss at 0.3189, target 0.2925; if volume increases and price holds above 0.3068, exit position, keep position size under 20%.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$KAITO#PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6%
#PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6% $KAITO $BTC current price is about 81,850 USDT, with a short-term focus on the narrow range of 81,600–82,600: around 81,600 is today's low and immediate support, while yesterday's low at 80,394 is a more critical lower defense area; on the upside, first look at the MA7 near 82,600, with further resistance around the MA25 at 83,900. MACD is still in a daily death cross, the 14th K-line, DIF 536.60 below DEA 1,139.61, the green bars expanded from -577.16 to -603.01, indicating that bearish momentum has not continued to converge, and a golden cross confirmation is not yet visible. EMA/moving average structure is also mixed: price is below MA7 and MA25 but still above MA99; however, the super trend remains upward, with a reference value around 79,664, indicating that medium- to long-term support has not been completely broken. If the price can reclaim 82,600 and drive the MACD green bars to start continuously shortening, the short-term recovery signal will improve; if 81,600 is lost, attention should be paid to whether it will continue to test around 80,400. Today's large capital net outflow is about 920 BTC, and the capital side currently does not provide obvious support. $ETH $ZEC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test Brothers, is there anyone like me who clearly sees the right direction but still can't make money within their cognitive range?
Yesterday's $W rose more than 20%, I thought it could go higher but didn't dare to enter; when it rose over 70%, I decisively turned bearish but was scared into closing early by a one-minute candlestick spike. Then I placed a higher short order, only to watch the market move away.
After reviewing, I realized I didn't lose to the market or my understanding, but to hesitation, fear, and obsession with the perfect entry point.
Understanding the market isn't hard; the hard part is whether you can still trust yourself during market fluctuations.
No regrets, just gained another insight.
Sometimes, the lessons the market teaches us are exactly the ones we already knew.
Grateful for the encounter. $STRK $MAGIC Brothers, after waiting for several days, the market finally shows some signs of life.
There was a slow decline and consolidation recently, and the group chat was so quiet it was just bots left. In the past two days, the rebound signs have started to appear, but don’t get too excited too early; the biggest taboo is blindly chasing highs. The consensus is to accumulate chips on pullbacks, but when it really gets low, most people hesitate and can’t go down. Only a few can overcome the fear.
Here’s my current position: BTC average price 82345 for long, mark price 82658, floating profit +48U (+7.63%), at least I didn’t chase at the top; ETH is the brightest performer, average price 2507, floating profit +106U (+16.94%), caught the main rebound wave; DOGE base position average price 0.0849, slight profit +6U (+1.26%), waiting for meme rotation. All three positions are in the green, but my feelings are mixed — previously stubbornly shorted ZEC, got blown up by the mad dog, -593% ROI, cut losses halfway down the mountain, the lesson was deep.
On the macro side, CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests; progress on the Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" is to be confirmed, geopolitical risks remain; TSMC’s Q3 revenue hit a new high, the October 15 earnings report has many highlights, with technology and liquidity expectations intertwined. Control leverage before the data, don’t let volatility wash away your chips, wait for the market to choose a direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $CT Observation: CT small rebound, acting independently against the overall market
Bro, this "small rebound" is indeed interesting. CT has steadily declined from 0.50 to 0.29, cutting in half, but today it stubbornly pulled back to 0.36 against the trend, rising more than 6 points.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, after the MACD formed a golden cross below zero, the red bars expanded, and CVD is inflowing 230,000, indicating that funds are quietly accumulating at the bottom. RSI returned to 68, short-term momentum is still there, but it's not far from overbought.
Right now, the overall market is miserable; BTC broke below 82,000, ETH fell below 2,450, and funds are retreating ahead of the CPI release. For CT to rebound at this time, either the manipulator has strong control over the market, or speculative funds are banding together locally for support.
This kind of counter-trend rally looks like a glimmer of hope, but whether it's a true bottom or just a last gasp depends entirely on whether the manipulator is willing to continue supporting it. The resistance at 0.38 is right ahead; let's see if it can break through.Now the whole screen is shouting about a bull market returning quickly, but I want to talk about an extreme scenario that no one wants to mention: what if tech stocks suddenly crash, and crypto reverses, dropping 50% to $40,000. The first wave buys the dip at 70,000, the second wave adds positions at 60,000, and the contract players leverage up holding until 50,000, but it ends up falling all the way to 40,000, leaving almost everyone except spot holders out. The March 12, 2020 crash was just like this, no one could have predicted it because most people's "risk control" was just luck — this absolutely couldn't happen. True risk control is preparing for the absolutely impossible as if it might happen: if it really happens, I can still be fine or even make a little profit. Risk management is the fundamental principle of trading.
$BTCSamsung's preliminary Q3 profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time, risk appetite warms but has not transmitted to the crypto market, Ethereum remains weak and independent, I judge the short term to still be bearish. Looking at the market, price is 2448.17, down 3.4% in 24 hours, lowest touched 2441.7, trading volume 23.886 million, funding rate only 0.0014%, open interest 564,000 coins, bullish sentiment clearly fading. Although the hourly chart shows a slight rise, it has fallen 10.81% from the 4-hour high, with strong resistance at 2578.44 above and 2441.7 as the last line of defense below. Order book buy orders are 5384 versus sell orders 1012, ratio 5.32, short-term support exists but hard to reverse the downtrend. Strategy: lightly short near 2472.3 on rebound, stop loss at 2501.8, target 2418.6; if volume breaks below 2437.5, can chase short, stop loss 2466.2, target 2389.4. Keep position under 10%, strict stop loss on breakout.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$ETH#Samsung's preliminary Q3 profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time
#Samsung's preliminary Q3 profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW $ETH Samsung's preliminary Q3 profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time. Despite a rebound in risk appetite, it couldn't support SLX. I judge that this round of decline essentially reflects short-term capital withdrawal and has not yet bottomed out. Looking at the market, it fell 8.4% in 24h to 0.05442, close to the lowest at 0.05424. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are in decline, down -9.59% and -23.99% from the highs respectively. The trading volume of 3.051 million indicates selling pressure is not heavy but buying support is even weaker; the funding rate of -0.0042% shows bears slightly dominate sentiment. Open interest is 28.827 million with no obvious reduction, and the top 10 bid-ask ratio of 1.19 suggests some support at low levels. Strategically, if a rebound is resisted at 0.05685, consider light short positions with a stop loss at 0.05812 and a target of 0.05267; if volume increases and it stabilizes above 0.05593, switch to long positions with a stop loss at 0.05431 and a target of 0.05946, keeping position size under 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SLX#Samsung's preliminary Q3 profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW
#Samsung's preliminary Q3 profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW $SLX $DOT competition dimensions have changed.
The past public chain track approach: competing on TPS, contract ecosystems, TVL, and competing with Ethereum and Solana for developers and speculative users.
New strategy: target users switch to ordinary internet users (Web2 mobile users), who don’t understand private keys, gas, or parachains; they only use apps like WeChat and TikTok. Polkadot aims to make the user experience as simple as Web2 apps, while the underlying assets remain decentralized.
Three implementation paths (implied solutions in the proposal):
1. Polkadot Product Platform: encapsulate complex on-chain components to lower the threshold
JAM upgrade is the foundational base.
• Previously: developers had to build parachains themselves, bid for slots, handle cross-chain, staking, contract deployment, with very high barriers; ordinary users had to create wallets, remember mnemonics, and pay fees.
• New plan: package Coretime computing power, cross-chain, account system, staking derivatives vDOT, and dotUSD stablecoin into ready-to-use product components.
Developers call modules directly to quickly build mobile DApps; users don’t perceive "interacting with blockchain."
Example: a mobile mini-program where users log in with their phone number, automatically generating an on-chain account behind the scenes; gas fees are paid by the app side; users pay only with dotUSD, never seeing DOT or mnemonics. User experience equals Web2 mini-programs, asset ownership confirmed on Polkadot chain.
2. dotStables (dotUSD) as the value bridge for users
Ordinary Web2 users are unwilling to hold volatile DOT.
• dotUSD is a stablecoin minted by DOT collateral: users use stablecoins for daily consumption, payments, and in-app settlements without price volatility anxiety.
• Key design: minting 1 dotUSD requires DOT collateral. Ordinary users use stablecoins, indirectly creating demand for DOT.
Web2 users don’t need to buy DOT, only use dotUSD, but underlying DOT remains locked.
This is the proposal’s original wording: demand for dotStables translates ultimately into DOT demand.
3. Account abstraction + seamless interaction to eliminate private key barriers (the biggest obstacle for Web2 users)
Web2 users are used to phone number/verification code login. Polkadot ecosystem will promote account abstraction:
• Social recovery, phone-custodied accounts, app-paid fees;
• Users don’t need to save mnemonics; lost accounts can be recovered via social relationships;
• On-chain operations are completed automatically in the backend; front-end interface is indistinguishable from ordinary apps.
User perspective: open the mobile app to complete payments, credentials, digital asset operations;
Underlying perspective: all transactions execute on Polkadot relay chain/parachains; asset ownership is controlled by users, not platform custody.
Objective constraints: trade-offs between decentralization and usability (key point, not just narrative)
1. Decentralization baseline: assets remain on-chain collateralized and governed; platform cannot freeze user assets; but front-end interaction layer can use custodial login (account abstraction) to hide complex decentralization logic in the background.
2. Difficulty: balance of security and trust
Using app-paid gas and social recovery introduces new trust assumptions. Over-simplification approaches centralization; insufficient simplification keeps Web2 users out. This is the biggest engineering challenge of the entire strategy.
3. Long cycle
JAM, product platform, account abstraction, dotUSD ecosystem popularization are all medium- to long-term projects. Setting the strategic direction ≠ immediate influx of massive Web2 users; it is a 2–3 year long-term narrative. #Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure? Institutional accumulation and macro sell-off pressure continue to tug-of-war, short-term remains weak consolidation, risk control prioritized over bottom fishing. Four-hour downward pressure suppresses rebound, current price 81888 down 2.2%, approaching 24h low 81710.6, down 5.32% from 4h high, volume only 6.675 million, funding rate 0.0023% indicates insufficient long crowding. Top 10 bid-ask ratio 3.85, buy orders 909 supporting the bottom, but 1h only slightly up 0.27% from low, rebound strength to be tested. Strategy: short lightly at rebound to 82565, stop loss 83210, target 80890; if retesting 80785 stabilizes, go long, stop loss 79930, target 81940. Single position no more than 5%, exit immediately if broken.
—For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading.—
$BTC#Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure?
#Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure? $BTC #Institutional Continuous Positioning, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure? This round of institutional entry has not supported altcoins, WLD follows the market weakness. My judgment is that a short-term oversold rebound is expected, but the mid-term is still constrained by a seller-dominated pattern.
Although the hourly and four-hour trends are marked as upward, they are respectively 13.78% and 17.21% below the highs, showing weak rebound strength; a 24h drop of 10.8% to 0.4951 with a turnover of 234 million indicates real selling pressure. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.81, with sell orders of 342,000 outweighing buy orders of 276,000, the funding rate is only 0.0077%, and open interest is 71.708 million, showing clearly insufficient bullish sentiment.
Strategically, if it pulls back to 0.4873 and stabilizes, one can lightly go long with a stop loss at 0.4735 and a target of 0.5362; if the rebound is resisted at 0.5287, try shorting with a stop loss at 0.5419 and a target of 0.4903. Position size should be controlled within 20%, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$WLD#Institutional Continuous Positioning, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure?
#Institutional Continuous Positioning, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure? $WLD Starting this week with a principal of 1000, on Monday I first pushed it to 1100, achieving the weekly target of 5% and even exceeding it to 10%. However, due to no rules applied for the Martingale contract, no leverage control, and no replenishment rhythm, the floating profit was largely given back, leaving just over 1000. The lesson is to first lock in the base position, use excess profits to try high-risk strategies, set strict limits on replenishment and stop-loss, and once the target is met, stop and don’t be greedy. Steady drawdown control is more important than chasing high returns.
Currently, the funds are at 1010 with a target still at 1050. Keep it up 🎭 The Five-Pack: Wormhole suddenly surges 36%, BTC shrinks volume at the doorstep, ETH stands above 2500, OKB breaks 125
$W 0.024285, up 36.53%, Wormhole cross-chain bridge suddenly rallies. Small-cap new coins can spike with little capital, lacking fundamental support, likely short-term speculative trading. The cross-chain bridge sector suddenly rallies before CPI, indicating funds are looking for small coins as themes.
$BTC 82904.7, down 0.18%, has been sideways with shrinking volume around 83000 for three days. Volume nearly halved, bulls and bears are holding back ahead of CPI. ETF saw the largest single-day net outflow in three and a half months last week, but price barely dropped, showing support below.
$ETH 2503.60, down 0.28%, stronger than BTC after standing above 2500. A whale sold 410 BTC to buy $36 million ETH for portfolio rebalancing.
$OKB 124.51, down 1.14%, broke 125. The platform token is grinding along with the market.
$RE 0.44310, down 0.33%, lying flat at 0.44. No one is paying attention to the DeFi insurance small RWA logic.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test $BTC $ETH The 5 key price levels to watch in the crypto market today, not trending on Twitter
Don't be fooled by hot words in the group chat, today's real trading numbers are these:
BTC 82000: Holding = bulls haven't collapsed; breaking below = watch the 80000 psychological level
ETH 2447: short-term sentiment watershed, if not broken, try going long; breaking 2400 switches to defense
ETH 2500: breaking above with volume = bears temporarily concede
XRP 1.35: breaking means sideways trading fails, 1.30 is the next support to watch
SOL 105: high beta critical point, if 105 can't hold, no bull market talk for altcoins
Plus two macro anchors:
Dollar Index 102.5: above 103, risk assets all tremble
US 10Y Treasury 5.24%: continuing to rise, ETH can't expect a crazy rally
Trading is not prediction, it's clearly writing out "if... then..." scenarios. Don't guess the bottom or chase the peak today, wait for price levels to speak. #CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation $BTC crude oil surges to 106, gold suppressed at 4195: Safe-haven assets show inconsistent stances today
Interesting, today traditional safe-haven/inflation assets are "divided."
Gold COMEX at 4195.90, spot at 4174, touched 4217 on Monday but didn't hold — indicating there is "safe-haven buying," but the dollar and US Treasury yields are keeping it down.
Brent crude oil at 106.12, WTI at 93.16 — this is pricing in a "geopolitical risk premium," not economic strength, but trouble in the Middle East.
So where does BTC fit?
In the short term, it’s not gold, it’s a "tech risk asset": Nasdaq down 0.44%, BTC also soft; dollar up, BTC also soft.
In the long-term narrative, it only touches on "digital gold."
So don’t blindly buy BTC just because gold is rising, nor shout "crypto safe-haven" just because oil prices are up. The real relationship today is:
oil price up = inflation fear = Fed hawkish = crypto under pressure
gold not taking off actually proves "true safe-haven funds" are still hesitant. #CPI and PPI releases imminent, rate hike expectations face a test $ETH $BTC Scumbag observation on ETH 10.13
Well, it really is a big bearish candlestick crashing down
Let's pay attention to the support around 2400; if it breaks down effectively, it will be truly empty.
Be careful not to suffer big losses. Place some orders around 1920Day 10 of the 10,000 to 200,000 challenge, BTC current price 81811, I am betting the bottom is relatively higher than the last buy point at 81600, buying!$AZTEC Damn it! AZTEC's recent pump is just ridiculous. The volume above 0.0186 clearly can't keep up, it's pure bull trap. I've been watching for a while, and the sell orders are piled up like a mountain; smart money has already left, just waiting for retail investors to take the bait. This kind of pump without news is either a shakeout or a dump—classic manipulator tactics. I placed a short at 0.0186 with a stop loss at 0.0205; if it breaks that, I'll accept the loss. If you want to take this bite, be careful and don't overleverage your position. 👇👇👇$BTC $ETH The US September inflation data hasn't been released yet, and starting October 14, the crypto market needs to "hold its breath"
Don't think today's volatility is all there is; bigger shocks are coming: US September CPI/PPI/retail sales will be released one after another, and the market is already waiting.
Why is it important?
Because the Fed is still tough: "Inflation mindset is entrenched, interest rates still need to rise." If CPI exceeds expectations again, the probability of a 25bp rate hike will jump from 20.5%; if CPI weakens, the market will discount the December rate hike, giving risk assets some breathing room.
For crypto:
Hot CPI → Dollar rises, US bonds rise, BTC/ETH fall first
Cold CPI → Short covering, ETH surges to 2500–2550
Strong retail -> Fed becomes more hawkish -> Crypto market gets tougher
So don't set your stop losses too tight these days, and don't max out leverage. ETH at around 2447 is most vulnerable to "betting on direction before data, then getting stopped out after data." Experienced traders usually reduce positions before data and watch for real breakouts after data before following. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ZEC has completed a classic rally and profit-taking cycle.
It surged to 1348, attempted 1350 but failed.
During the price decline, OI continuously flowed out.
Bulls took profits and exited, with no new funds entering.
This round of short squeeze has ended.
The core question now is: can the 1111 support hold?
The privacy narrative remains the fundamental logic behind ZEC.
But the market tells us: without OI increasing again, a new upward rally will not start.5｜SOL 109, BNB 740, XRP 1.38: Don't chase altcoins today, first watch BTC's mood
Today SOL is about $109.76, BNB about $740.14, XRP about $1.3858. On the surface, all slightly up, but don't be fooled by the “red bars.”
$BTC SOL are highly volatile chains; they usually surge sharply and drop hard too. With tight macro conditions, a hawkish Fed, and a strong dollar, it's hard for them to fly solo. If they really want to surge, BTC needs to hold steady above 82000, and ETH must defend 2447–2480 to have confidence.
BNB is relatively stable because it has exchange fundamentals, Launchpool, and on-chain activity supporting it, but it's not a “mindless buy” — if the overall environment pulls back, it will also retreat, just usually more resilient than smaller altcoins.
XRP now is like a “slow-heating old man,” hovering around 1.38, neither breaking down nor breaking out. Suitable for placing orders, not for chasing gains or panic selling.
Today's altcoin trading mantra is:
If BTC is unstable, don't heavily hold altcoins; if ETH doesn't return to 2500, don't chase SOL above 112; XRP can be picked up while sideways, discuss weakness only if it breaks 1.35. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test The market is being generous; I said I wasn't optimistic about the rise. Combining the trend structure line, this short position is directly making big profits! The feeling of precisely escaping the top is just comfortable.
$NEAR: Opening average price 5.576, current price 5.085, 10X leverage, unrealized profit 732.23U (+88.07%). Nearly double the return! Shorted near 5.6 after a reversal at the top; this downtrend has been extremely smooth, leaving no chance for bulls to rebound. Currently approaching the 5.0 level; first, let's see if this position can hold. If not, continue holding; if it breaks below 5.0, target 4.8.
$BTC: Opening average price 82603, current price 81819, 10X leverage, unrealized profit 155.39U (+9.49%). Also decisively entered a short at the high of 82600. Now Bitcoin has directly broken below 82000, confirming the bearish trend. This trade is steady; looking further down at the 80000 level.
Previously, all long positions were fully closed for profit, then firmly switched to short. This wave's rhythm is tightly controlled. When the market is weak, short positions are the best safe haven. Profits are running; continue to sit tight and wait for the market to bottom out before making further moves!
$STRK
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? ## 今日 T+24H 突发（4 条）
1. 🔴 **伊朗革命卫队 10/12 在霍尔木兹再扣一艘违规油轮**（两天内第三艘），航运风险持续升级
2. 🔴 **胡塞再袭沙特空军基地**，利雅得机场关闭延至 10/18；沙特 24h 内 119 次空袭报复；**美军暂不直接下场仅情报支持**（关键缓释）
3. 🔴 **克利夫兰联储哈玛克放鹰 "需小步快频加息"**；CME 12 月加息 25bp 概率升至**70.3%**（上期 64.1%）
4. 🟠 **俄乌 "能源停火" 罗生门**：佩斯科夫正式拒绝 60 天停火；泽连斯基指控俄一边克制一边被打加油站；俄方至今未确认
## 核心盯单点
- **今日盘前银行财报**：JPM EPS $5.93 / GS $14.47 / C $2.64 / WFC $1.844
- **明日 CPI**（10/14 20:30）：预测整体 + 3.6% / 核心 + 2.5%，核心环比 0.21% 为决胜点
- **模拟交易**：维持 100% 空仓，CPI + 银行财报双重事件前不追多October 13 Crypto Market Daily: The recovery didn't hold, the pullback has arrived. BTC fell back to $81.8K, ETH lost $2,500, SOL dropped below $106 — yesterday's small rise was swallowed by today's bearish candle. As of around 07:35 Beijing time on October 13: BTC: $81,820, 24H -2.19%
ETH: $2,451.52, 24H -3.27%
SOL: $105.66, 24H -4.94% 24H trading volume: BTC about $27.35B
ETH about $13.10B
SOL about $3.11B Market cap: BTC about $1.645T
ETH about $299.66B
SOL about $62.30B All three declined simultaneously, with clear strength hierarchy: BTC is the most resilient, ETH second, SOL the largest drop. The trading volume clearly expanded, indicating this is a volume-backed decline, not a low-volume gradual drop. In short: this is a pre-CPI early reduction of positions, not a trend collapse, but definitely not a time to add positions. 1) Price structure: recovery failed, BTC fell back to the lower boundary of the range BTC reported at $81,820, 24H -2.19%. Binance 24H range about $81,800-$84,352. BTC dropped directly from above $84K back to $81.8K, basically giving back all of yesterday's recovery, heavy💎 ETH: Security Is Just as Important as Growth!
One Ethereum development I find worth discussing is the Foundation’s research into native transaction assertions.
The idea is to help users verify that a transaction produces the intended outcome, rather than relying only on the fact that a transaction was signed. 🔐
In my view, making blockchain transactions safer and easier to understand is an important part of wider adoption. 📉 Don't panic over the market pullback; these 4 assets are "charging up"!
Today SUI, PUMP, ZEC, and ARB are all down, but the fundamentals are being bombarded with positive news, a typical "leveraged shakeout":
SUI (-5.4%): Institutional funds are surging! Included in the CME index + unlocking $500 million BTC liquidity, infrastructure is being rapidly completed.
PUMP (-6.4%): The Meme sector king has a deep moat, with an average daily buyback and burn of $1.25 million, totaling $300 million burned, the deflationary logic is the strongest.
ZEC (-7.8%): Privacy coin ETF fee war has begun! Gemini applied for an ETF management fee of only 0.25% (Grayscale is 2.5%), significantly lowering institutional allocation costs.
ARB (-4.0%): Robinhood chain's trading volume has surged to $34.6 billion in two months since launch, the "Meme + US stocks" play is triggering traffic spillover.
💡 Observer's view: Panic is the best test of fundamentals. Before CPI data, watch more and act less, but these few stocks with strong left-side logic are worth adding to your watchlist for focused monitoring! 👀
#Web3 #Cryptocurrency #SUI #PUMP #ZEC #ARB #InvestmentWatch$ETH The Federal Reserve is the hidden big player in the crypto market: One sentence from Harker makes the market more bearish than Twitter news
Honestly, trading crypto now without watching the Federal Reserve is like driving without looking at traffic lights.
The hardest news today: Cleveland Fed President Harker said U.S. interest rates still need to rise further, inflation will stay at 2.5%–3.0%, companies are raising prices faster than costs, and "inflation mindset" is solidifying. She is also a voting member for the October meeting and is "open" to whether to raise rates on October 27–28.
The market pricing now is: 79.5% chance of no change in October, 20.5% chance of a 25bp hike; 70.3% chance of a 25bp hike by December. This is very clear—not an immediate hike, but the "easy money dream" is gone.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
Strong dollar → risk asset valuations pressured → BTC/ETH unlikely to have a crazy bull run
High U.S. Treasury yields → funds prefer 5%+ yield in Treasuries rather than gambling in crypto
Weak U.S. tech stocks → crypto follows down, especially high beta like ETH/SOL
So today ETH grinding between 2447–2500 is not decided by retail investors, but the "Fed expectations" pressing down the ceiling. Don’t believe in "$100k soon," believe first that the Fed won’t turn hawkish again. $BTC #CPI and PPI releases are imminent, rate hike expectations face a test $BTC The current popular trend in the crypto world is "hoarding." Publicly listed companies treat Bitcoin as a reserve asset, and mining companies hold onto the coins they mine, waiting for appreciation—but there is one listed mining company that sells every coin it mines immediately, keeping zero on its books.
According to Wu Shuo Blockchain's news on October 10, Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer sold all 300.6 BTC mined during the week ending October 9, maintaining a zero Bitcoin holding on its balance sheet. In other words, this company's "net increase in Bitcoin holdings" has long been zero.
This figure stands out in the industry.
In the past two years, "hoarding coins" has almost become the standard practice for listed mining companies and coin-holding firms: keeping mined coins on the balance sheet is both a bullish bet and a way to beautify the books when coin prices rise. Bitdeer goes against this trend—turning mining output directly into cash, leaving none behind. The last time it appeared in news about "holding growth" was in September 2025, when it announced holdings increased to about 1,966 coins. Now back to zero, it effectively overturns the two-year narrative of hoarding coins.
Why dare to do this? Let's look at its fundamentals.
Bitdeer's operational data for June 2026 is quite strong: Bitcoin production increased by 388% year-over-year, reaching 990 coins; self-mined computing power is 73 EH/s, with a self-mined mining machine scale of 243,000 units. $BTC BTC 82600, ETH 2487, XRP 1.38: These three are not following the same story today
Don't be fooled by the similar red and green in mainstream coins today; the logic is completely different.
BTC is around 82625 USD, touched 84000 over the weekend then came back, indicating there is real selling pressure above 84000, but there are buyers at 82000. BTC is now a "macro barometer": the 10-year US Treasury yield is around 5.24%, the dollar is strong, so it dares not surge recklessly; but as long as risk appetite returns to US stocks, it is the first to be bought.
ETH is about 2487 USD, highly correlated with BTC but more volatile. When BTC drops 1%, ETH often drops 1.4%—today's news said "Bitcoin dropped over 1%, Ethereum dropped over 1.4% to 2493." In other words, ETH is now "eating from the same macro meal," but with a shallower stomach, prone to vomiting.
XRP is about 1.386 USD, up 0.38%, not very strong. It is no longer purely a crypto narrative, more a slow variable of "legal/payment/institutional adoption." Short-term funds are not that crazy, but it hasn't collapsed either; it’s the kind of asset where "you feel uncomfortable chasing highs, but dare not short when it breaks down."
Today, don't treat these three coins as the same kind of asset. BTC watches the macro, ETH watches volatility and stop-loss, XRP watches if it can hold sideways and change volume. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test Grid bot check-in update✅, it has now been running for 6 days and 10 hours🥰
The grid itself is still working hard, with grid profits reaching +0.77%, cumulative arbitrage count hitting 598 times, almost a stable 93 round-trip arbitrages per day. As long as the price fluctuates within the grid, it obediently earns the spread, working without slacking off!
But the market keeps going down😮💨, the price has dropped from 123.94 in the last screenshot to 120.69 now, getting farther from the starting price of 131.88.
The little bot still sticks to its instructions, continuing to buy and add positions as the price falls. The fridge has been stocked with many new small dishes🥬 that haven’t been eaten yet. The unrealized paired loss has expanded to -6.81%!
The little money painstakingly earned by the grid can’t withstand the continuous inventory loss from new additions, and the overall total return rate has dropped to -6.04%, deepening the loss compared to last time😭ETH (Ethereum)
ETH $2,487
Macro: BTC has pulled back to around 82,600, and ETH continues to weaken relative to BTC (ETH/BTC down about 4% in the last 20 days). Capital has not rotated from Bitcoin to Ethereum, making it the weakest link.
Technical: This morning at 05:00 Beijing time, ETH dropped 1.4% in one hour alone, directly breaking through the key support at 2,510, hitting a low of 2,482; the 1H RSI is only 26 (oversold), but the price is already below the 1H MA20/MA50/MA200 — the breakdown is confirmed.
Focus: 2,510 has flipped from support to resistance; if the rebound cannot close back above 2,510–2,535, the downtrend will continue; below, 2,470 is the starting point of this rebound and the last near-term support. If broken, the price will head straight to 2,406 (the crash low on October 8).$ETH ETH is now at 2447. Don’t just look at the number; look at which “battlefield” it’s on.
Brothers, ETH is quoted around 2487–2493 USD outside today, but many are focused on the 2447 whole number. Why? Because 2400–2450 is the short-term bullish defense zone. If it breaks, it’s likely to drop to 2350–2380; if it holds, there’s a chance to test 2500+ again.
Today isn’t just “ETH playing by itself,” macro factors are pulling it: the US Dollar Index is hovering around 102.5, and Fed’s Harker hawkishly said “interest rates need to rise further.” The market partly believes there’s a 79.5% chance rates won’t move in October, but also fears a 20.5% chance of a rate hike surprise at the October 27–28 meeting. At times like this, ETH is easiest to shake out: it rises and someone sells, it falls and someone buys.
Don’t get emotional in trading: 2447 is not a “must-buy,” it’s an “observation point.” If it really moves, wait for 2447 to hold on a rebound with volume, or if it breaks 2400 and then fails to reclaim it on a rebound, then talk about a weakening trend. ETH is no longer a junk coin logic; it’s the “risk asset among risk assets.” When the Fed coughs, it sneezes first. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$BLUR top accounts are more bullish, positions are more bearish, divergence narrowing mainly from the account side. Bullish accounts ratio 59.4%→55.7%, bullish positions ratio 41.7%→41.3%; gap narrowed by 3.32 percentage points.
$BOME top accounts are more bullish, positions still bearish. Bullish accounts ratio increased by 1.8 percentage points, bullish positions ratio increased by 0.06 percentage points, still at 47.2%.🚨 Alert! Ledger hardware wallets suffer supply chain attack (malicious chip implanted)
Ledger confirms that some devices sold through Southeast Asia authorized distributor (CryptoBilis) were tampered with in the supply chain, with unauthorized hardware modules implanted!
⚠️ Attack methods and threats:
Highly covert: The malicious implant retains the original secure chip, perfectly bypassing Ledger's official Genuine Check.
Mnemonic theft: During user wallet initialization, the module captures the mnemonic displayed on the screen and quietly transmits it via a built-in cellular module.
💥 Impact and losses:
Hundreds of wallets have been emptied, with estimated losses reaching $70 million – $93 million+.
Some community reports indicate the risk may not be limited to this single distributor channel.
ℹ️ Official response: Ledger emphasizes that its official system and devices sold directly on the official website are unaffected. However, this incident has severely shaken supply chain trust in the self-custody industry.
🛡️ Security advice:
Always purchase hardware wallets only through official direct channels; do not rely on third-party authorized dealers.
Regularly inspect device casings for signs of resealing or tampering.
#Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 #Crypto #Cybersecurity #HardwareWallet #BlockchainSecurityThis account has fully closed its ONDO long position, exiting with 330,000 USD at an average price of 0.467429. Closing the position does not mean a bearish view; let's see if they open a new position again.
ONDO trader closed long | Account 52c8e6 | Position change 329,210 USD
Average execution price 0.467429 · Position after change 0 USD · Leverage 3x
$ONDO $BTC was excited for nothing. I saw Bitcoin rise to 550,000, and I thought I was going to get rich quickly, but it turned out to be an OK bug.Woke up early to a harsh reality, currently floating at a loss of -41.35U. Stared at the screen for a while, sighed deeply, and decided to let it be, really exhausted mentally.
🍂 $ETH: All profits gone, plunged into hell.
Entry price 2,501.22, current price 2,447.98, 20X long position, huge loss of -53.23U (-42.56%). The +62U earned a couple of days ago is completely wiped out, breaking below 2500 directly. Liquidation price 2,386, feeling powerless watching it.
🌧️ $TRX: The dragging anchor on the brink of despair.
Entry price 0.3353, current price 0.3286, 20X long position, floating loss of -10.04U (-39.96%). Continuous decline with no rebound, just a step away from liquidation price 0.3209, no strength left to struggle.
☀️ $BTC: The only lifeline.
Entry price 82,544.12, current price 81,813.17, 20X short position, profit +21.92U (+17.71%). The market finally crashed, the short position barely recovered some ground, liquidation at 86,341.
Brothers, close the app, have some breakfast, get a good rest. Life is yours, let it be, good morning everyone.👇
$BTC $ETH $TRX
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what to watch for in the October 15 earnings report?