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$ETH CPI is the key to breaking the deadlock
Short term (48 hours): Most likely to fluctuate between 2,400-2,537. 2,506 is the short-term watershed—if volume breaks through, the target is 2,537-2,600; if it falls below 2,416, the target is 2,400-2,344. After CPI exceeds expectations, the market needs time to digest the rate hike pricing.
Medium term: If ETH holds the 2,400-2,420 support, with ETF funds flowing back and whales continuously accumulating, it is expected to challenge 2,537-2,600. But last week ETF outflows of 542 million + CPI exceeding expectations + whales being defensive— a pullback could happen at any time.
The biggest risk: CPI exceeding expectations pushes the rate hike probability to 43% + ETF outflows of 542 million last week + dense long liquidations below 2,400. Some analysis explains it well: "If broker margin liquidations and investor deleveraging occur simultaneously, major crypto assets like ETH may face greater selling pressure and volatility in the short term." At the 2,439 level, chasing highs is like sending New Year's gifts to the bears. Control your hands, wait for the direction to become clear before acting. Remember, surviving longer in crypto is ten thousand times more important than making more profit! Meeting adjourned!Very popular, but the three sets of accounts must be separated
#BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover?
$ETH I'll first calculate the supply changes.
Base fees will be burned, validator rewards involve new issuance, and the specific issuance amount will also vary with the staking scale.
So after "someone uses the network," we still need to ask: how much is actually burned, and how much is newly issued?
If the number of transactions increases, but the fee per transaction decreases, the total burn amount may not increase correspondingly.
I prefer to track issuance and burning over the same period, then judge whether the supply has tightened. Picking only days with high burn numbers easily overlooks changes at other times and can mistake a phase phenomenon for a long-term trend.
For $BTC, I separate on-chain transfer volume and buying demand.
Fees mainly depend on the space occupied by the transaction, not the transfer amount, and fees are paid to miners.
Therefore, a large transfer does not directly prove someone is buying, nor can the direction of funds be judged solely by the amount.
When studying demand, I want to confirm whether there is new buying and continued holding, rather than interpreting every large movement as a price signal.
For $SOL, when creating a token account, a certain amount of funds must be reserved as storage balance, which can be reclaimed after closing accounts that meet the conditions.
This kind of fund occupation has its own purpose and an exit path.
So an increase in account numbers cannot be directly equated with a permanent reduction in circulating supply.
I look at account additions, closures, and net occupation simultaneously. More users coming in is worth noting, but how much actual usage demand remains requires further data explanation.$ETH Contract Data and the Dog Whale Conspiracy — $814 Million Liquidated, Bulls Bloodied
First, in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $814 million liquidated, with $686 million in long liquidations, accounting for 84.3%. Ethereum long liquidations reached $143 million, nearly equal to Bitcoin's $142 million — the ETH derivatives market has higher leverage density and a more extreme concentration of bulls.
Second, funding rate differences across exchanges have widened. Binance is at -0.0042%, Bitget at 0.0018%, Bybit at 0.0016%, OKX at 0; CoinEx at -0.0702%. The market-wide average funding rate is about -0.0019%, superficially favoring shorts paying longs, but account structures still clearly lean bullish: Binance long accounts make up 74.2%.
Third, divergence between bullish accounts and bearish active trades. Only 37.5% of Binance's active trades are long, 62.6% are sell-side; OKX long trades are only 45.6%. Position holders are waiting for a rebound, but short-term funds continue selling — a typical "passive bulls holding positions, active bears applying pressure" structure.
Fourth, the dog whale conspiracy: using the South Korean stock market crash as a trigger to liquidate leveraged longs. The dog whale exploited the South Korean stock market plunge to trigger cross-market deleveraging, smashing ETH from 2,579 down to 2,413 to trigger long liquidations, while quietly accumulating near 2,420. A large buy order at $2,421.54 accounts for 81.1% of the top 5 buy orders, indicating technical support near 2,420. #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
The boss has something to say
Tesla released its Q3 earnings after the market closed on October 21. Deliveries reached 486,500 vehicles, exceeding market expectations, but still down 2.1% year-over-year. The market is now focused on two things: whether the automotive gross margin can recover, and if there are any new developments with Robotaxi and Optimus.
Exceeding delivery expectations does not mean profits exceeded expectations. The price war is still ongoing; whether gross margins can rebound and cash flow can improve is key. If gross margins continue to be squeezed, Tesla’s stock price will be under pressure, tech stock sentiment will cool down, and Bitcoin will be indirectly affected. If gross margins recover and the AI business has new stories, risk appetite will warm up, which is mildly positive for crypto.
But Tesla is not a crypto asset; it cannot change Bitcoin’s direction. Bitcoin mainly depends on CPI and U.S. Treasury yields. September CPI was 3.7% year-over-year, core CPI 2.6%, both fully exceeding expectations. Inflation has risen for three consecutive months, rate hike expectations have increased, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and Bitcoin is under pressure.
I have already closed my long Bitcoin position at 84,000, locking in a profit of 1,200 points, and am currently flat. CPI exceeded expectations, so the short-term direction is bearish; I’m not in a hurry to go long. Support below is at 80,000; holding 82,000 means consolidation. Tesla’s earnings report is industry validation, not a directional switch. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Don’t chase the highs or sell the lows; wait for the market to fully digest the CPI before making moves. Set your stop losses well.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop losses. Good luck.How many people got trapped during this drop of the three storage giants?
I've been watching the market for a few days and found a problem: the biggest drop areas are actually not the most dangerous places.
The real danger is that many people see continuous declines and think the drop is enough, but the funds have not truly returned.
$SNDK
Current price around 145, still weak in the short term.
Price continues to be under pressure, RSI is in a low area, indicating buying power has not fully recovered.
Resistance above is around 148-150, support below is around 140.
Without a volume breakout, the rebound looks more like a corrective move.
$SKHYNIX
Current price around 1070.
Recently affected by storage cycle adjustments, the trend is clearly weak.
The market is focusing on whether HBM demand can continue to support the AI storage logic.
Resistance above near 1120, support below around 1050.
If funds do not flow back, short-term still needs to wait.
$MU
Current price around 946.
Also in an adjustment phase, but AI server demand remains the biggest support.
Short-term focus on resistance at 973 and support at 930.
The biggest market controversy now is whether AI demand can continue to drive the storage cycle.
My judgment:
The storage sector cannot yet be simply defined as an opportunity or an end.
The real signal is not how much it has dropped, but when funds re-enter the market.
A rebound without fund support can easily become a false rally again. #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed 阿斯麦尔营收也不错，看这个月tsm和月末intel了，虽然现在半导体板块整体低迷，费城连跌，但我认为这个大概率是市场重新调整的一段时间，下个月antrophic上市，结合这段时间霍尔木兹海峡的混乱情况，股市估计会进入很长一段时间的调整期，就像上半年的深度调整一样，只不过上半年是去杠杆，而这半年是一场深度的价值重审，这次下跌不是结束，明年半导体估计还有一波大的行情，但是估计不会出现在存储，而是芯片代工制造，低点补仓英特尔，静待过程$SOXL The semiconductor downturn is not over yet!!!
Currently, SOXL has fallen back to around 118, with a significant short-term decline. The possibility of a rebound on Thursday is also not low. However, there is an issue worth noting: ASML's release shows that AI and semiconductor equipment demand is not bad, yet the market has not responded with corresponding buying support. Despite the positive news, the stock price continues to weaken, indicating that the pressure on semiconductors now is not just fundamentals, but also a large amount of profit-taking and valuation pressure accumulated earlier, coupled with rising U.S. Treasury yields, making funds clearly unwilling to continue buying at high levels.
Thursday's TSMC earnings report is crucial. The market already has high expectations for AI demand growth, so good performance does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise. What really matters is whether the capital expenditure guidance can continue to exceed expectations, and whether heavyweights like NVDA, AMD, and AVGO will see funds re-enter.
Personally, I still lean towards a rebound on Thursday, with 121–126 being key levels to watch. If TSMC's positive news only brings a short-lived rally and semiconductor heavyweights do not have sustained buying, this rebound will likely be hard to maintain.
Looking ahead to Friday, I still expect SOXL to fall back to around 113–117. If selling pressure continues to expand, 104–111 is also possible. Only if TSMC significantly exceeds expectations and inflation data cooperates, leading to sustained capital inflows in the semiconductor sector, will I change my current bearish view!Three types of people who are doomed to fail at rolling positions, with almost no exceptions
The indecisive: eager to take profits at a slight rise, quick to cut losses at minor pullbacks, hard to hold through major trends
The reckless leveragers: heavily leveraged all in at once, when the direction reverses and liquidation happens, they only blame the market
The over-traders: frequently thinking about rolling positions for compound interest, repeatedly opening trades, ending up with all profits eaten by fees
Sharing a rolling position strategy (extremely high risk, one wrong step leads to liquidation)
Step 1 - Initial position: prioritize BTC, ETH, SOL with ample liquidity, keep the first position under 20%, reserve most funds for key opportunities, refuse to go all in directly.
Step 2 - Adding positions: add only when price breaks previous high with volume expanding simultaneously, single add not exceeding 30% of total funds. Exit rules: close half if closing price falls below 7-day moving average, exit all if below 14-day moving average.
The biggest enemy of rolling positions is always greed. Continuing to add after reaching target profits, always trying to chase more gains, easily gives back all earned profits.
The market itself has no absolute right or wrong; many lose trades because execution fails to follow the plan, and after profits, they struggle to decisively take profits.
$ETH $BTC #US September CPI year-over-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations $BTC 正常如果真要跌，宏观逆风成这样子了，这里主力至少跌8-10%，直接杀破75k，借机把底下多单杀了，但主力没有这么做，纳指大跌1.2%，大饼跌1.5%，这根本就不想砸下去，就是我前面一直讲的，宽幅震荡，以横代跌，这是强势的表现，主力再次提提醒大家，别想着低价捡筹码了。所以，这时候我一定要止盈对冲单，把重点放到建仓上。
现货买入是要有计划的，大家要提前计划好，挂单都提前挂好，等吃就行，该睡就睡，不要边走边看，容易错过$BTC Contract Data and the Dog Whales' Conspiracy—820 Million Liquidation Storm, Bulls Bloodied
First, in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $814 million, with long position liquidations at $686 million, accounting for 84.3%. Ethereum long liquidations reached $143 million, nearly equal to Bitcoin's $142 million—ETH derivatives market has higher leverage density and a more extreme concentration of bulls.
Second, the direct trigger for the 800 million liquidation was the plunge in the South Korean stock market. On October 13 during the Asian trading session, the South Korean KOSPI index dropped over 6%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling about 8% each. Concerns over AI-related valuations and competitive pressure from Chinese memory chip manufacturers were the catalysts. Approximately $595 million in liquidations occurred concentrated in the last 12 hours, closely matching the sell-off rhythm of the Seoul market.
Third, whales had already shifted to a defensive stance before the drop. Before liquidation, the whales' long-to-short position ratio was 0.87, with shorts accounting for 53.39%, while retail traders' long-to-short ratio was 0.5223 and sharply rising. The divergence structure between large holders reducing longs and opening shorts and retail chasing longs on dips had formed before the liquidation occurred.
Fourth, funding rates turned negative, with shorts paying longs. The current funding rate is about -0.0109%, meaning shorts pay longs, completely opposite to the bullish frenzy in October last year.
The Dog Whales' Conspiracy: Using the South Korean stock market crash as a trigger, they smashed BTC from 84,000 down to 81,000 to trigger long liquidations, while quietly accumulating at the low. 81,000 is a strong support at the 400-day moving average, with rapid rebounds after each pullback touch. The dog whales accumulate between 81,000-82,000, sell between 84,000-85,000, and retail picks up between 82,000-83,000—a complete harvesting chain. $BTC CPI is tonight's "trump card"
First, tonight's CPI data is the decisive "trump card". The September ISM Services Prices Paid Index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, and the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation for October rebounded to 4.7%. HTX Chief Analyst Cloud believes the probability of CPI exceeding expectations is high; if so, year-end rate hike pricing will be further reinforced, with the 81,000 support level taking the brunt.
Second, Fed voting member Harker signals hawkish stance. Cleveland Fed President Harker clearly stated that smaller, more frequent rate adjustments are preferable to waiting and then being forced to make large corrections, and pointed out that inflationary pressures are not limited to the energy sector. AI infrastructure-driven demand for electricity and tech components, as well as related bond issuance demand, are all contributing to inflation. The probability of a rate hike in October is about 20%, but this has warmed up compared to before Harker's speech.
Third, the 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.36%, the highest since 2002. Elevated long-term rates directly increase the holding costs for leveraged funds, and even if the Fed holds steady in October, risk assets will find it difficult to escape the heavy pressure of valuation contraction. 🔥 CPI直接打爆预期！今晚这盘，空头先爽了一把。
美国9月CPI同比3.7%，高于预期3.6%；核心CPI同比2.6%、环比0.3%，也全线超预期。原本市场还在赌核心降温，结果核心没降，反而把加息预期重新点燃——10月加息概率从20%左右直接拉到40%-50%附近。
能源是主因，汽油、柴油一起涨，但这次不是“只有能源在闹事”，核心环比也压在0.3%没下去，说明涨价有往其他领域扩散的迹象。
数据一落地，黄金跳水，美债收益率拉升，美元反弹，美股期指转跌。 对币圈来说，真正的压力不在CPI数字本身，而在美债收益率和美元有没有继续抬头。
$ETH 现在看，数据前震荡不奇怪，数据后如果收益率继续冲高，短线反弹容易被压回来；如果收益率回落，ETH才有机会重新试探上方压力。
高倍单今晚别硬扛，数据后插针最狠。你们ETH今晚守哪个位置？评论区聊👇
⚠️个人观察，不构成投资建议。
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $USELESS 今天这根砸盘，值得拆一下。
12:00 冲到 0.18323，之后 11 个小时
一路滑到 0.16471，回撤 10.11%。
重点不是跌了多少，是量怎么变的：
20:00 砸盘根 902 万 U，一根 -3.21%
之后量能一路塌：
743 万 → 530 万 → 110 万
最新这根只有砸盘根的 12%。
抛压在肉眼可见地衰减。
但我还是不动，空间是歪的。
往下，到 24h 低 0.16324 只有 0.89%
往上，到 24h 高需要 11.24%
回 MA20（0.1727）要 4.83%
贴地板往下做，赚不到 1%
就得赌它破 0.16124 那个 96h 低。
往上接也没依据：
MA20 压头上 4.83%，MA60 7.91%
空头排列一根没破。
资金费率 +0.0188%/期，年化 20.6%
价格跌成这样，多头还在掏钱。
没清干净，谈不上见底。
观察标记两个：
放量收回 0.1727，结构才算破
跌破 0.16124，就是下一个台阶
两个都还没发生。
今晚我看不动。
（非投建议 盈亏自负）Dogecoin ETF delisted in less than a year: Is it a community issue or a product issue?
Today, the first Dogecoin ETF officially stopped trading. From launch to termination, it lasted less than a year.
Many people ask me what this means. To conclude: it's a product issue, the community is not to blame.
Let's look at the numbers. Before closing, this ETF's assets were only $726,000, not even enough to fill a whale's wallet. The issuer's CEO made it clear: traditional investors who buy funds and those who use coins on-chain are two completely different groups. To translate: it's not that no one wants Dogecoin, it's that the packaging didn't reach the right hands.
The failure of the ETF essentially stems from a mismatch between traditional financial narratives and crypto-native culture. Traditional investors value compliance, stability, and predictable returns, while Dogecoin's value foundation lies in community consensus, cultural identity, and on-chain activity. When an asset that started as "fun" is dressed in a serious financial suit, it loses the most charming part of its soul.
More importantly, this ETF never truly reached Dogecoin's core users. On-chain data shows daily active addresses continue to grow, the DApp ecosystem covers games, retail, and other scenarios, and the community's social media followers exceed 4 million—these are the real manifestations of Dogecoin's vitality. The ETF's quiet trading precisely shows it failed to become a bridge connecting the two worlds and instead became a dividing wall.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 ETF outflows, how does that directly become "institutions no longer trust BTC"?
Whenever the market experiences a pullback, headlines like "institutions massively selling off" and "capital fleeing in panic" always appear, and the most commonly cited evidence is the net outflow of Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs on certain days. For example, Farside data shows that on October 12, US BTC and ETH spot ETFs had net outflows of $65.4 million and $85.4 million respectively. The numbers are indeed striking, but the question is: does this really mean "institutions no longer trust BTC"?
First, ETFs are just one tool for holding crypto assets; they do not distinguish who the buyers are. The fund names and amounts listed in the tables cannot tell us whether the sellers are pension funds, registered investment advisors (RIAs), family offices, or ordinary retail brokerage accounts. Categorizing all redemptions broadly as "institutional behavior" is a typical attribution error.
Second, what truly reflects some institutional holdings movements are the 13F filings required by the SEC. These quarterly reports are usually submitted within 45 days after the end of each quarter and disclose the holdings of qualifying institutional investors in US stocks and ETFs. But 13F filings also have limitations: they do not cover all institutions (for example, some hedge fund positions are exempt), and the data is delayed, making it unsuitable for real-time judgment. [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
CPI at 3.7% exceeds expectations, core inflation also hits 2.6%, is BTC about to crash directly?
Pharaoh says straight up, don’t be scared by the surface numbers. The most critical part of this surprise is that "core inflation is also rising," which is much more serious than just oil prices. Once the data came out, BTC was hammered straight down from 83,900 to around 81,850.
Core CPI month-on-month at 0.3% is higher than the expected 0.2%, and year-on-year at 2.6% also beats the market’s 2.5% forecast. This means inflation isn’t just about oil prices; underlying price pressures are spreading. The 2-year US Treasury yield instantly jumped 13 basis points, and the market started betting again on an October rate hike, with the probability jumping from under 22% to over 50%.
In the short term, it’s a double whammy of “bloodletting + stampede.” With rate hike expectations back, the dollar strengthens and risk assets get hammered collectively. The key support for BTC below is the 81,500 to 80,000 range; if it can’t hold, it will have to look for support around 79,000. Resistance above falls back to 83,000 to 83,500.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish in operations. The data just came out, the market is still digesting it, and the spike trading isn’t over. Wait for a pullback near 81,000 with volume and a stop in the decline before lightly trying longs, with a stop loss at 79,800 and targets around 82,700-83,500!
Remember, core inflation exceeding expectations is a hard wound; the Fed has reason to stay hawkish. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 The market generally bets on a pause in rate hikes in October, but traders labeled as “greater-fools” are still increasing their $BTC short bets. From yesterday to today, they have invested about $4,381: predicting the market will "fall to 65,000 by year-end" with 136,100 contracts (implied probability 22.5%, value $30,600); and "fall to 70,000 by year-end" with 55,800 contracts (probability 35.5%, value $19,800).
Even more aggressive is Hyperliquid, who still holds 26.97 BTC short positions (average price 69,962, value $2.25 million), currently with an unrealized loss of $365,200, struggling to hold.
Tonight’s US September CPI is key. If inflation exceeds expectations, the market will reprice tightening, which could become a short-term pressure source for BTC.
In the mid-term view, institutional selling pressure has not stopped; this position is an extreme battleground between bulls and bears. Don’t blindly chase; hold your chips and wait for direction.
$ETH
$SNDK
#September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Inflation rises again, the crypto circle needs to recalculate this financial equation
Oil prices have risen, and the pressure ultimately passed on to the financial markets. The US September CPI released tonight rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the previous 3.4% and the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding the expected 2.5%. For funds expecting a looser monetary environment, this data is clearly unfriendly.
Looking closely at the components, gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase. But housing prices also rose 0.4% month-on-month, and core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from last month. Energy is the main driver, and other price pressures have not disappeared.
The market has already started to reprice: after the data release, US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and expectations for further Fed rate hikes increased. However, inflation exceeding expectations does not necessarily mean a rate hike at the next meeting; subsequent employment and price data remain key.
My view is that BTC will next depend on whether it can withstand this financial pressure. With the dollar and US Treasury yields continuing to rise, rebounds require real buying support. Especially in contracts, don't take the first candlestick after the data release as confirmation of direction; wait for volatility to settle and see the support before deciding whether to act. You can miss the market, but don't let your position be driven by a single piece of news. @OKX星球 Why is everything dumping today?
Almost $1.3 Trillion has been wiped out from the stocks, metals, and crypto in just 2 hours.
Key reasons:
1. US CPI hits a 4-month high, while the Core CPI hits a 3-month high.
2. October rate hike odds jumped to 51.3%.
3. DXY spiked to its highest level in 18 months.
3. US 5Y bond yield hits a 19-year high.CPI really exploded.
At 8:30 PM when the data came out, BTC dropped straight from 83500 to 81676, a big 4-hour bearish candle, down nearly 2000 dollars. Now at 81863, it hasn't stopped yet.
MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all overhead, and that move just broke through the consolidation box that lasted a week.
Of the two scenarios mentioned before, the worst one happened: the core CPI also exceeded expectations. The 23% probability of a rate hike in October will probably surge back tonight.
Next to watch is the previous low at 80400. If it holds, a double bottom could trigger another bounce; if it doesn't hold, the next support is the 80,000 round number, and below that 78,000.
Don't bottom-fish tonight. The data just came out, and the sentiment hasn't fully released yet. Wait until tomorrow morning to see if 80400 holds before making a move.
Go to bed early; tomorrow morning will bring new liquidation stories again.Both tokens are down, but positioning differs. $PENGU: $7.35M longs vs $5.56M shorts. Longs are down $635K, while shorts hold +$471K. $TRUMP: $12.2M shorts vs $9.32M longs. Shorts are up $1.78M, while longs are down $1.69M. 30m flow: $PENGU: $68K buying vs $34K selling. $TRUMP: $108K buying vs $109K selling $PENGU shows stronger buying pressure, which could support a rebound. $TRUMP remains short-heavy, with no clear shift in momentum yet🚨 Brothers, the real risk in the crypto market tonight might not be in the candlesticks, but in the Federal Reserve!
I just looked at a set of interest rate expectation data, and the changes behind it are worth watching.
📉 October: Rate hike expectations suddenly rise. The probability of keeping rates unchanged is 77.3%, but the chance of a 25 basis point hike has already increased to 22.7%. A month ago, the market barely considered a rate hike; now the wind has clearly shifted.
⚠️ December expectations are even more aggressive. The probability of a 25 basis point hike reaches 68.7%, and a 50 basis point hike is at 19.1%. According to this data, the market’s bet on no rate hike in December is only 12.2%.
What does this mean?
Previously, everyone expected liquidity from rate cuts, but now concerns about rising rates are growing. Once funds shift to risk-off, high-volatility assets like BTC and SOL will naturally struggle to break through easily.
The most critical thing coming up is the CPI data:
🔥 If inflation exceeds expectations, bets on rate hikes may continue to heat up, and the crypto space could face renewed pressure.
📈 If inflation is below expectations, the market might readjust rate expectations, giving risk assets a chance to breathe.
My view is simple: don’t rush to guess the market’s rise or fall tonight. First, watch the inflation data, then see if BTC can withstand the pressure. The real danger isn’t missing out, but blindly leveraging before the macro direction is clear.
Brothers, do you think this CPI will make the market see hope for rate cuts again, or further strengthen rate hike expectations?
#Bitcoin #Fed $BCH
BCH recovery is stronger than BTC; is payment usage the only driver?
Today's midday spot 24-hour observation window: range 267.5—282.4 USDT, change +3.43%, trading volume about 3.7 million USDT.
Within the same window, elasticity provides relative performance but cannot confirm real settlement or merchant adoption changes. Market recovery, reduced prior selling pressure, and independent demand could all cause the rise; usage alone cannot explain it.
If BTC remains stable but BCH falls below 267.5, reduce independent relay; if real settlement improves and maintains above 282.4 after recovery, then increase economic demand assessment. #Bank of America survey reveals stock-bond divergence, BlackRock increases short-term bond allocation ahead of schedule The latest Bank of America fund manager survey clearly reflects the current institutional divergence in stock and bond expectations: many fund managers still maintain overweight positions in U.S. stocks and AI tech stocks, betting on a soft landing and high computing power demand; but at the same time, a large number of respondents rank the disorderly rise in U.S. Treasury yields as the top tail risk, maintaining underweight positions in the bond market, worried that sustained high interest rates will continue to impact valuations.
BlackRock, however, offers a different allocation answer: it has raised its short-term U.S. Treasury allocation to overweight, while lowering U.S. stocks from overweight to neutral, a typical "realizing some stock gains and shifting to short-term bonds to lock in coupon income" strategy. The logic is that short-term bonds offer attractive coupons and lower duration risk, so even if the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates, the drawdown is controllable; in its view, the market's pricing of further rate hikes is overly aggressive, and the risk-reward ratio of short-term bonds already surpasses that of stocks.
Translating to the crypto market, this signals a convergence in risk appetite. Leading asset managers are actively reducing equity exposure and embracing risk-free returns, and the opportunity cost of capital logic will suppress high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, etc. If more large asset managers follow suit in rebalancing, the rebound potential for risk assets will be limited; but if inflation data continues to decline and rate cut expectations return, this "stock-to-bond" approach will reverse again.
Key follow-up points: short-term U.S. Treasury yields, CPI and other inflation data, and whether the allocation views of other leading asset managers converge. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 73.7% betting on a rate hike, short position on ETH at 2511 finally got the chance
After the core CPI exploded to 0.3% at 8:30, the market's reaction was more honest than the data itself—no one is talking about rate cuts now, everyone is rushing to bet on rate hikes.
Latest CME FedWatch data: The probability of at least two rate hikes before the end of January 2027 has surged to 73.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 1.2%; the probability of a 25 basis point hike in October jumped from 21.6% before the data to 43.7%, doubling, and some are even pricing in three more hikes by the end of 2027.
This explains why BTC plunged right after touching 84000. Before the data, many were shouting "bad news is priced in, rate cuts are coming," with longs fully loaded; but with core at 0.3% and overall at 3.7%, both exceeding expectations, the logic reversed overnight—from "when will rate cuts happen" to "how many hikes will there be," turning the previously positioned bulls into fuel for a stampede.
The market doesn't lie:
$BTC
Failed to hold 84000, already dropped below 82000, after breaking 82200, next targets are 80900 and 80000
$ETH
ETH is even more straightforward, broke 2500 directly, now around 2420
Sharing a position: My ETH short entry was at 2511, now at 2420, 91 points profit secured
Not bragging, just saying the trend direction is always written in the data, not shouted out
During a rate hike cycle, rebounds are not buying opportunities, they are giving shorts some points. Don't rush to catch the first spike $UNI Actually, deep down I really want to keep buying the dip and going long, but my instinctive reaction to $UNI's upcoming trend is still worry! A few days ago, when it was above 8 dollars, I bought some at the bottom. There are brothers in the comment section with similar cost bases. Fortunately, they all strictly set stop losses, so the losses should not be large. What I want to say is, the bottoming point for $UNI might still need to be watched at 6 dollars! It has dropped from 10.95 to 7.2 now, a decline of 34%. Although this is an acceptable level, the recent bearish candlestick bodies are clearly much larger than the bullish ones, indicating there are still more sell orders, and the short-term moving averages have been suppressing the price, making it tough for the bulls! From a fundamental perspective, UNI is certainly a quality asset. Whether it's revenue or the buyback and burn model, it satisfies the market. Moreover, while other decentralized exchanges have seen severe revenue declines, UNI remains resilient, which highlights its uniqueness! To sum up UNI in one sentence: it's hard to stop the decline in the short term, but worth investing in for the long term! $BTC $ETH saw an outflow of $773 million before the CPI! What the heck is going on? Are institutions done playing with you?
I checked, and this is the largest single-day outflow in the past two weeks. The CPI hasn't been released yet, but institutions are already running.
1. The U.S. is not conducting large-scale strikes on Iran: Iranian proxies continue attacks on ships, mines, and harassment in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Shipping risk premiums persist, keeping oil prices high and inflation from falling.
2. If the U.S. escalates strikes on Iran: Iran has the capability to retaliate by attacking Saudi oil fields, ports, and blockading the strait, causing oil prices to surge and inflation to explode.
Iran doesn't need large-scale conventional warfare; relying on low-cost drones, missiles, and mines can continuously pose threats. They don't need to destroy all oil tankers; just increasing insurance costs and forcing ships to detour can keep raising crude oil trade costs, supporting oil prices long-term.
The U.S.'s core constraint is domestic inflation and voter sentiment. Once oil prices soar, CPI rebounds, the Federal Reserve must maintain high interest rates, U.S. stocks and risk assets come under pressure, recession risks rise, directly impacting the election.
Iran is also aware of its energy leverage and won't easily give up this card. As long as the U.S. doesn't meet its demands, proxy conflicts will persist long-term.
#U.S. September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, core inflation exceeded expectations BTC current price is around 65000, and the market has not given an effective signal to stop the decline. Moving averages are suppressing in alignment, MACD shows a weak bearish death cross without convergence, and the bearish control pattern remains unchanged. The liquidation map above shows high leverage short liquidation pressure near 84500, but the current benchmark price is too far from that area, making the probability of a short-term rebound to hunt very low. Instead, the focus is more realistically on continuing to move down to clear stop losses on long positions below.
Just handed the meal to the customer, and the debt collection calls started ringing, no time to glance at the phone. 65000 is not a bottom-fishing position; shorting requires waiting for a rebound, not smashing directly. If a short-term rebound occurs between 65200 and 65800 but fails to hold above 66000, short positions can be entered, with stop loss set above 66200. The first take profit target is around 63800, and the second take profit target is near 62500.
If volume breaks below 64500, the bears will accelerate further, with the target potentially moving down to 61800. The risk-reward ratio is barely acceptable; do not hold positions stubbornly.
$BTC
#ASML Earnings Preview: EUV Orders Are a Key Focus
@OKX Planet core has been watched for a long time, always thought it could stand up again, maybe I was naive, here are my feelings and views on the coer public chain.
1. Today's market
I used to only have a concept of "fall 13% need to rise 15% to break even," now it has become the first thing I check every morning when I wake up. The asymmetric path between loss and break-even becomes clear only after holding a position.
2. The entry point I chose happened to be a moving average judged as "seller-controlled"
Traders Union marked a set of positions for CORE in the technical review on October 9: hourly MA-20 at 0.0215, MA-50 at 0.0217, daily MA-200 at 0.0289; recent resistance at 0.0208, support at 0.0194, RSI that day 23.79, oversold. The conclusion was straightforward—trend clearly bearish, unless it stabilizes above 0.0208, any upward movement is just noise.
My opening price at 0.0215 almost exactly landed on the hourly MA-20 they marked. In other words, I bought at a "moving average pullback," but the market gave me a "break below the moving average." Same number, two interpretations. This realization came late, but it wouldn't have come before today.
3. How to reread the reasons that initially convinced me to go long
I was brought in by the BTCFi narrative. Core's selling point is the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus: combining Bitcoin's PoW hash power, CORE's DPoS staking, and non-custodial Bitcoin staking. Officially, over about 70% of Bitcoin mining hash power has contributed to this chain's security model; on-chain, more than 5400 BTC and over 160 million CORE have been staked long-term, with TVL once exceeding $850 million. From an engineering narrative alone, this is not just air.
But today's market numbers are like this: circulating market cap about $27.66 million, 24-hour volume about $3.38 million (btc126, October 14 data; chain community data shows market cap about $19.27 million, volume about $1.67 million, differences mainly due to circulating supply calculated as 1.01 billion or 1.48 billion); down 99.7% from the all-time high of $6.14 on February 8, 2023; only rebounded 11.8% from the all-time low of $0.0167 on July 28, 2026; nearly a year down 92.83% (chain community October 14 data), last seven days between -7.48% and -14.40% depending on source and timing.
The technical narrative is true, the price is true, both can coexist for a long time. This is the first lesson I learned from this position.
4. What truly woke me up were two events this year
The first was in early September. Core DAO validators received more CORE than protocol design intended due to a reward accounting bug; the official announced an emergency hard fork, clearly a "forward upgrade," no rollback of historical transactions, and promised a technical review. How much was overissued, how long it lasted, and whether these coins entered circulation—the official has not disclosed complete figures. Those days Coinbase suspended Core network deposits and withdrawals; Bithumb, Coinone, Bitget, LBank also successively suspended deposits and withdrawals.
At that moment, I understood what liquidity really is. It's not the volume line on market software, but whether someone is on the other side when you press "withdraw."
The second was on May 22. Core Foundation and Maple Finance reached a comprehensive settlement on the exclusive syrupBTC protocol dispute, a confrontation that started in November 2025 and went through Cayman arbitration and litigation, lasting a full eight months. On the day the news broke, CORE rose nearly 26%. I copied AInvest's later commentary verdict into my memo: this was "a relief rally on a deeply discounted asset, not a trend ignition."
A knife hanging for eight months fell; the market only allowed itself to catch a breath. After the breath, fundamentals still have to be faced. Looking back at that rebound today, I see not an opportunity but the homework I need to make up next.
5. There's one more number I have been reluctant to look at
CORE's max supply is 2.1 billion, current circulation about 1.24 billion. CoinCodex and the official knowledge base recorded an annual actual supply inflation rate of 35.73% in September 2026, while the protocol design's annual inflation target is 3% to 5%. Block rewards are distributed over 81 years, and 75% of the airdrop unlocks monthly within two years.
Narrative determines whether someone is willing to buy; dilution determines how many are forced to sell. This gap cannot be filled by "the team is still working."
6. Writing this, what I feel is
Not despair. Despair requires having believed in something, but now I feel more like doing an honest reconciliation.
This position has taught me three things I previously only read in others' posts: first, "undervalued" does not equal "catalyst," an asset down 99% can fall another 13%; second, holding a contract long is essentially borrowing a viewpoint with a time cost; third, price is the only data that doesn't require you to believe anyone else, everything else is secondhand.
I no longer ask "can CORE rise back," but a more painful question: why should I know this earlier and more accurately than someone else? If I can't answer this, the position is no longer an investment but a statement.
As for the next step, I give no advice to others or to myself last week. Once the 0.0194 support decides the direction, I will most likely immediately know I am wrong—this kind of "knowing" itself is quite costly.Today, as soon as the CPI was released, the market broadly fell, but $OKB held up remarkably well!
September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and the core monthly rate of 0.3% also exceeded expectations. Once the data came out, BTC dropped from 83300 to below 82700, ETH fell below 2500, and SOL, BNB, DOGE were all in the red. Overall, 60 fell and 35 rose; OKB was quoted at $122.8, down 0.58% in 24 hours, not making the gainers list. So the claim of it being the "only one rising" is mistaken.
But OKB did show resilience, worth mentioning. It only fell less than 1% intraday, while ETH fell 0.84% and SOL 0.74% in the same period. It had a single-day drop of over 6% a few days ago, and today’s similar negative news only caused a small pullback, indicating selling pressure had been released earlier. It also has a structural advantage: a fixed total supply of 21 million, fully circulating with no unlocking pressure; its 90-day correlation with BTC is only 0.06, basically not moving with the broader market. The logic for platform tokens is not to rely on narratives but on exchange cash flow and token burn support.
My view is, don’t rush to say it’s "super stable." OKB’s small drop today is more because it had already fallen deeply before and the chips are clean, not because it’s immune to macro factors. The CPI exceeding expectations reduced the probability of no rate hike in October from 80% to 50%, and the probability of a rate hike in December is still rising. No one can truly be unaffected in this environment. It’s fair to praise its resilience, but calling it a counter-trend rally is an overstatement. This week, the two key earnings reports for U.S. bank stocks were released. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley have continued the positive trend in bank stocks this week. Bank of America's earnings report tells us that the traditional credit and deposit system remains healthy, while Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the capital markets and high-net-worth funds are still very active. Bank of America’s earnings show strong core banking operations, good loan growth, and loan growth without deterioration in credit quality; however, capital markets business is weaker. Morgan Stanley’s earnings are even more impressive than Bank of America’s, with stock trading data exploding, up 41% year-over-year. Fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodity trading businesses are weaker, but wealth management scale is outstanding. #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance to be revealed. Combining the two earnings reports, we can conclude on this week’s issues that, continuing from other banks’ earnings yesterday, loan growth, net interest income, provisions, investment banking, and credit quality continue to be in a growth and expansion phase. For the AI industry chain, the capital supply environment is favorable. However, this earnings report is not good data for the Fed. As Wash previously said, the financial market has not yet tightened, and the Federal Reserve still has room to contract. Another point to note is that a common issue in Bank of America and Morgan Stanley’s earnings is that FICC is below expectations, meaning bond market trading may be more difficult than stock market trading. This implies that the real pressure in the financial market currently lies in the bond market, not the stock market. Considering the current situation, this week’s bank stock earnings reports have basically confirmed good results + ASML’s strong earnings, with only TSMC’s expectations also looking good.Tonight's CPI is actually not the main focus. The real drama is that the Federal Reserve's credibility is being treated as a joke by the market.
Hamak is hawkish, verbally insisting on more hikes; meanwhile, the market has pushed the probability of "no change" in October to 77%. On one hand, they talk about raising rates, on the other, the pricing says no hike—both sides are not even on the same wavelength. BTC is being reduced by US institutions, while whales have increased holdings by over 80,000 coins in three weeks.
Institutions are withdrawing, long-term holders are stepping in. With CPI running hot, BTC will be hit first; but after the bad news is fully priced in, whales may accelerate accumulation. ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding 500 million last week, with BlackRock alone pulling nearly 500 million.
But one detail is worth watching: its leverage ratio has dropped to a seven-month low, funding rates have turned negative, meaning shorts are paying to hold positions. If the price holds steady and doesn't break key support, short covering could actually fuel a rebound. The premise is that ETF funds need to stop flowing out first, which hasn't happened yet.
Gold XAUT is currently seeing speculative longs exit the futures market. UBS says this decline is essentially non-commercial accounts reducing net long positions. However, gold ETF holdings remain unusually resilient, with continuous inflows; central banks have increased holdings for twenty-three consecutive months, with September's increase being the largest this cycle.
Speculators are running, allocators are stepping in. BTC's buyers are on-chain whales, gold's buyers are central banks. The current bet is on how long the Federal Reserve's credibility crisis can last. #US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations Tonight at 20:30, CPI is coming⏰
My view remains unchanged: $ETH is slightly bullish around 2500, with the core battle being that core inflation won't exceed expectations explosively🔥
Looking at the market, ETH is repeatedly tugging around 2500, forming a deep V from 2400 intraday, with solid support below💪. This is not a false support but real chips exchanged for real money. BTC also has funds supporting it around 83,000, and short-term sentiment has not collapsed.
There are also obvious suppressing factors: ETFs have had net outflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling about $697 million, which indeed weighs on the market🧊. But institutional rebalancing seems more like short-term sentiment disturbance; Citibank raised ETH's target price to 3028 on October 1, based on macro recovery + capital inflow, so the mid-term narrative still has support📈. Coupled with TSMC's Q3 revenue hitting a record high, tech sector profit expectations have underpinned risk assets.
Both bulls and bears are waiting for the inflation data; core month-on-month 0.2% is the watershed—above 0.3% ignites rate hike expectations, below that means bad news is fully priced in. Once CPI is released, the market will reprice, and macro data will be the main theme. I currently hold 3x short positions, but as long as 2500 is not broken, I remain slightly bullish. Don't rush, fasten your seatbelt🚀$BTC $ETH $ZEC ZEC at $1150, are you panicking?
From 1650 down to 1150, 30% gone, everyone is cursing "privacy coins are dead"—but just now, Grayscale's ZEC ETF quietly surpassed $1 billion in assets, the NU7 upgrade testnet has been activated, and the mainnet countdown is on. So is this a profit-taking wave or institutions quietly accumulating?
First, look at the surface: the drop is indeed severe.
At the end of September, it surged to 1650-1680, now at 1150, a 30% pullback. ETF funds have been flowing out continuously, longs liquidated, capital rotating. You open your account, everything looks green and scary. But look at the chart—1112 hasn't been broken, 1123 held, 1150 is being contested repeatedly. The candlesticks tell you: this is a pullback consolidation after an impulsive rally, not an established bearish trend. RSI is neutral to weak but not oversold, volume is declining and expanding, rebounds are moderate, typical profit-taking, not a crash.
First thing: Grayscale is flowing out, but Winklevoss is entering.
Grayscale ZCSH has indeed seen net outflows recently, tens of millions to over a hundred million dollars. Sounds scary?
But what you didn't see—Winklevoss team just submitted a ZEC spot ETF application with a fee rate of only 0.25%. Directly competing with Grayscale.
What does this mean?
Institutions are not quitting; they are switching tracks to compete for chips. One ETF outflow, another ETF inflow, the total pot isn't shrinking, just changing pockets.
More strikingly: Grayscale ZCSH's AUM previously quickly surpassed $1 billion. Institutional demand for privacy coins is real.
Second thing: NU7 upgrade, ZEC changed its core.
On October 4, the NU7 upgrade activated the public testnet. Block time shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, confirmation speed tripled. Fee mechanism optimized. Mainnet target November 5, final decision node on October 20.
Don't understand? Let me translate into plain language:
Transfers are lightning fast, user experience maximized
Lower fees, small payment scenarios revived
Quantum resistance roadmap advancing, transparent pool planned for 2027
ZEC is transforming from an "old-school privacy coin" into a "usable privacy payment network." This is the same logic as ETH's Pectra upgrade—technology landing, narrative reboot.
Third thing: In the AI era, privacy has become a necessity.
Have you ever thought—
AI is getting stronger, on-chain data is becoming more transparent, every transaction of yours could be linked, analyzed, sold.
In front of AI, your wallet is more transparent than your face.
This is ZEC's underlying logic: optional shielded transactions, zk-SNARK technology, you choose transparency or privacy.
Compared to Monero's full privacy—ZEC's "optional" approach is actually more compliant and easier for institutions to accept. Regulatory-friendly plus privacy protection, this is the only solution in the privacy track.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Grayscale ZEC ETF size breaks $1 billion, institutional channel open
Winklevoss low-fee ETF application, competitive advantage
NU7 upgrade testnet activated, mainnet November 5
Technical support strong at 1120-1150, no effective breakdown
YTD gains still over 100%, outperforming most major coins
On the other side:
ETF recent net outflows, profit-taking at highs
Long liquidations and capital rotation
Macro is hawkish, BTC oscillating between 82k-84k
Privacy coin regulatory uncertainty remains
Repeated failure to hold 1200, highs gradually lowering
Key level 1150, only $30 above the death line at 1120.
Resistance above: 1200 → 1230-1250 → 1300 (pullback end confirmation) → 1350+
Support below: 1120-1150 (iron bottom) → 1100 → 1050-1000 (extreme)
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Spot/mid-term:
Buy small batches near 1150, stop loss if 1100-1120 breaks effectively. First target 1200-1250, if stable then look at 1300. If breaks 1100 with volume, reduce position and reassess near 1000. Don't all in, privacy coins are volatile, regulatory black swans can come anytime.
Contract short-term:
Bullish: Light long positions at 1150-1160, stop loss 1110-1120, target 1200-1230. Risk-reward at least 1:2 before entering.
Bearish: Light short positions if rebound hits 1200-1230 resistance, stop loss above 1250, target 1150/1120.
Key nodes:
October 20 NU7 mainnet decision
Early November upgrade window
CPI/FOMC macro data
ETF fund flows
Risk iron rules:
Single trade risk no more than 2-3% of total funds
Leverage within 3-5x
Watch BTC closely, ZEC still correlated
Break and hold above 1300 to confirm pullback end
ZEC now is like Tesla in 2020—
Everyone thought "electric cars are toys," what happened?
It rose 20x from post-split lows.
Privacy coins are still in the "toy" stage.
But the stronger AI gets, the more valuable privacy becomes.
When everyone thinks privacy doesn't matter, every transaction of yours is exposed.
Holding 1150 is the starting point for the next wave.
Breaking 1100 is the final shakeout.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The worst feared event has happened: Core CPI moved
Overall CPI is 3.7%, roughly as expected, everyone was prepared for this, oil is expensive after all
The killer is the core CPI: last month was 2.4%, expected 2.5%, but the result came out at 2.6%, even higher than expected
Core CPI excludes oil and food inflation. When it rises, it means the high oil prices are no longer just a gas station issue. This time, the biggest increases were in airfares, used cars, medical care, and clothing.
Airfares illustrate the problem best. Planes burn oil, and after months of expensive oil, the cost can no longer be suppressed and has been passed on to ticket prices. This is what we have been worried about: oil costs starting to seep into other goods.
The market reaction was very direct.
The probability of a Fed rate hike at the end of the month was only 22% yesterday, but after the data release, it jumped directly to 44%, doubling.
The 10-year US Treasury yield surged back to 5.3%. The dollar strengthened accordingly, while gold, silver, and US stock futures all fell.
Bitcoin initially surged to 83,800 after the data release, then dropped steadily to 81,000. It still hasn't broken through 84,000.
The rate hike story is not over. Previously, most thought a hike at the end of the month was unlikely; now it's about fifty-fifty. Money will only tighten further, and the higher US Treasury yields go, the fewer people are willing to take risks.
The Fed meets on October 28. If they do hike consecutively, Bitcoin will have to look for lower levels. November still has October's CPI data; if core CPI continues to rise, this won't be a one-month issue.
In the short term, Bitcoin faces resistance at 84,000 above, and support at 80,500 below to watch.Core CPI year-on-year rose to 2.6%, hitting a nearly three-month high, showing inflation stickiness again. The previously expected easing pace in the market now faces a major test. Can BTC withstand this wave of macro shocks tonight?
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is a key indicator the Federal Reserve watches for underlying inflation. This rise in the reading means prices are not falling as expected, cooling expectations for rate cuts, and driving upward momentum for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
Key points to watch next: the difference between this 2.6% and market estimates, and the subsequent reaction of U.S. Treasuries after the data release. If it is significantly higher than expected, short-term selling pressure on BTC will likely increase; if the risk has already been priced in, strong spot buying support could lead to a rebound after the negative news is fully absorbed. Pay close attention to the secondary capital battles after the U.S. stock market opens at 21:30.
Core CPI hitting a three-month high means the market needs to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 The market is falling, but there are 3 coins $OP, $BAT, $PONS that are rising against the trend:
1. OP has the strongest fundamentals. It rose 64% in 30 days, while BTC only rose 9% in the same period. The upgrade allocates 50% of revenue to OP buybacks; Gwangju Bank in South Korea also partnered with Toss to run stablecoin QR payments using OP Stack.
But buybacks only start monthly in 2027, so what’s being traded now is expectation; 230 million circulating supply vs. 429 million total supply, with more unlocking ahead.
2. BAT is being bought by shorts covering. It rose 95% in a week, price is up, but funding rates have been negative all along. This is a short squeeze, not spot buying.
The narrative is stuck on the roadmap: x402, BravePay, Rewards Card are still on the waiting list. The revival of this old coin depends not on a quick pump but on whether the narrative can be fulfilled.
3. PONS is an insider’s game, my advice is to avoid it. It has dropped 71% from its ATH, and market cap has fallen below 200 million for the first time.
Buybacks and burns rely entirely on fees for funding; on-chain fees have dropped from a peak of $11.42 million to $595,000, cutting buyback power by 80%, now only 32% burn and exchange listings are propping it up.
OP has real catalysts, but you’re buying 2027 expectations; no matter how much BAT and PONS rise, they are not bottoms you can hold.$BTC hit 81700.
Current price is about 81706, dropping sharply about 0.45% from around 82078 in the last 15 minutes, with the daily low touching 81700. Inflation remains high, and interest rate hike expectations have resurfaced, coinciding with a sell-off.
Outlook: Still bearish on the 4-hour chart, with a range between 80961–84348. If it can't reclaim 82280, first support is at 81700; if that breaks, look to the previous low at 80961. Only by recovering and holding above 82280 / 83100 will the bearish structure loosen. Don't rush to bottom-fish.If tonight's CPI is the matchstick, which of the three major coins will be lit first? Are you also waiting for that directional choice? Watching the market until now, my biggest feeling is not excitement but a kind of suppressed quiet. BTC is grinding back and forth between 83K and 84K, ETH is holding firm at 2,500, and SOL is stuck around 110 looking up at 120. All three lines are very tense, like the calm before a storm. The interesting part this time is that ETF outflows have finally slowed down, while whales quietly absorbed 166K ETH during nine consecutive days of ETH bleeding. This detail is more worth watching than the price itself. Retail sentiment is still stuck in narrative fatigue, while big money is already voting with real cash. This kind of divergence usually doesn't stay quiet for long. Cross-market linkage is the real protagonist in this game. BTC is the main switch, and 84K is that toggle. Once it breaks above with volume, ETH and SOL will be passively boosted because short covering and risk appetite will be ignited simultaneously. Conversely, losing 82K will flip the whole board red, and altcoins will fall faster than anyone else because their buy orders are thin to begin with. The bullish path is actually not complicated: CPI doesn't explode, BTC breaks 84K, ETH follows to test above 2,600, and only then does SOL have the confidence to charge to 120. This chain is linked step by step; missing one link and it won't go far. But the risks are also deeply hidden. The market may have already priced in a mild CPI, so if the actual data is good, it might instead become a window for selling. If that 166K ETH whale stake is just hedging rather than bullish, once 2,500 breaks, faith will shatter quickly CPI landed, core year-on-year at 2.6%, slightly higher than market consensus. The real issue is the core, not the overall. The overall figure is supported by energy; gasoline saw a nearly double-digit monthly increase, which has already been traded. The Federal Reserve focuses on the core; once the core exceeds expectations, the December rate hike bet is pushed to about 90%.
For Bitcoin, 82,000 was originally the first support level; if it falls below but recovers, that's still acceptable. It actually didn't recover, now at 81,800, the short-term has already been lost, and this judgment of mine was wrong.
Crude oil at 95, Brent at 106, and US Treasury yields continue to rise after the data. Combined, this means higher funding costs and continued pressure on risk assets.
Market sentiment flips quickly; last night it was trading rate cuts, tonight the screen is full of rate hikes.
Below, first watch the 80,000 integer level. Integer levels are often used to sweep liquidity; a real drop might not be bad and could offer a counter-trend opportunity. If 80,000 is also lost, then treat it as a lower range. Don't chase short positions at this level; it's easy to get stopped out by a rebound.
$ETH $SOL $BTC
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 Bro, I saw an interesting comparison data.
Solana is now processing over 14 billion transactions daily, DeFi locked value has returned to $6.7 billion, and stablecoin market cap has surpassed $15 billion. But on the other hand, on-chain fee revenue for the first half of the year dropped 87% year-over-year.
Sounds contradictory, right? I was confused at first too.
Then I figured it out—the drop in fee revenue is because previously fees were contributed by meme coin hype, and that thing cooled off, so fees naturally dropped. But stablecoins, tokenized stocks, and these "real things" are rising, and much of their value isn't reflected in fees.
To put it simply: your neighborhood used to make money by charging stall fees for street vendors, but later the street vendors decreased, so stall fees dropped. But then a mall opened nearby, which doesn't charge stall fees, yet daily foot traffic is even higher than during the street vendor days, and people come to buy real stuff.
Street vendors bring bustle, the mall brings longevity.
The Alpenglow upgrade will launch on mainnet on October 21, with final confirmation latency down to 150 milliseconds. Once this is live, the capacity it can handle will be on a completely different scale from now.
$SOL is undergoing a blood change now. The old is retreating, the new is growing. Don’t be scared by the fee numbers; look at what’s growing at the base layer. Lost $12 million in 7 days, account left with only $150,000, Maji is back to square one
A month and a half ago, his account was $150,000.
Then: 150,000 → 12,000,000 → 800,000 → 10,000,000 → 1,000,000 → 560,000 → 150,000.
Went full circle, back to the starting point.
And in this month and a half, he paid $1.36 million just in funding fees.
But now it’s even more dangerous than "back to square one"
· 2,250 $ETH, 25X full position
· Entry price $2,515.81
· Liquidation price $2,401.35
· Floating loss -$218,100
ETH current price $2,421, only 0.8% away from liquidation price.
Last time: 7,075 ETH, worth $17.77 million.
Now: 2,250 ETH, worth $5.44 million.
Position cut by 68%, liquidation price moved down from $2,471.96 to $2,401.35.
What does this mean: he actively pushed the liquidation line away; but it also means another thing, he might be out of money.
Maji is back to square one, do you think he can bounce back this time? CPI exceeds expectations, BTC fiercely defends the 80,000 mark: How much longer can ETH and SOL hold?
The uncertainty of the international situation and energy prices combined with the rebound in inflation is testing the market's expectations for Federal Reserve easing. The most dangerous thing now is not the decline itself, but the possibility that funds may continue to reduce risk exposure.
According to my market snapshot tonight:
• $BTC: $81,803, key focus on the 80,000 mark; only if it retakes 83,000 will there be short-term signs of strengthening.
• $ETH: $2,420, watch if the 2,350–2,400 range can hold; reclaiming 2,500 would be considered an initial recovery.
• $SOL: $103.64, watch the 100–102 range; only retaking 107 can ease the weakness.
My view: cautiously bearish in the short term, no rush to bottom-fish.
BTC's relative resilience does not mean the market is safe; ETH and SOL's larger declines do not necessarily mean they will continue to fall. If the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to strengthen, I will prioritize guarding against support breakdowns; if all three coins hold key ranges and rebound simultaneously, then consider whether the trend improves.
I do not guess the bottom, only watch if the market can reclaim lost ground.
If BTC holds $80,000 but ETH and SOL continue to weaken, would you choose to bottom-fish or keep watching?
Note: Prices are taken at the time of the screenshot; support and resistance levels are personal observation ranges and do not constitute investment advice.Last week, they were stuck with 280 million, and this week they spent another 235 million to buy
No mistake, it's still Strive. From October 5-9 last week, they spent 280 million USD to buy 3,311 BTC at an average price of 84,500, only to be stuck immediately. This week, on October 12-13, they spent another 235 million USD to buy 2,822 BTC at an average price of about 83,266. Now the total holding is 35,595 BTC, ranking fourth among listed companies.
The two purchases combined amount to 510 million USD for 6,133 BTC. BTC is currently around 81,800 USD, both buys were underwater. According to CEO Matt Cole, the goal is to become the second largest BTC holder among global listed companies by the end of the year.
Institutions buy more as prices fall, while retail investors panic more—the butt decides the brain, and position size determines mentality. What about you, would you dare to buy more as prices drop in such a market?
Risk warning: Macro volatility is intense, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BTCZEC closed down on high volume, and in the next hour it fell below the previous hour's low again.
As of 22:49 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $1153.77. The 24-hour high is $1285.78, the low is $1145.98, with a volatility of about 12.2%. The full hour trading volume at 21:00 was about $8.63 million, three times the average of about $2.85 million over the previous 28 full hours. At 22:00, before the close, the volume was already about $8.15 million.
My judgment is that selling pressure remains. The closing price at 21:00 was $1206.6, and the low at 22:00 touched $1145.98. The increased volume indicates intense turnover, so it cannot be concluded that the downside has been caught.
At this point, rushing to guess the bottom just because of high volume can easily mistake turnover for support. I am more focused on whether it can retake and hold $1205.05, which is the low at 21:00. If it continues to break below $1145.98, the current judgment will be strengthened; if it stands back above $1205.05 and holds, the judgment of continued selling pressure should be adjusted.
$ZEC $BTC hedge short position has taken profit
As mentioned before, the main force might choose to use sideways movement instead of a drop, with wide-range oscillation to achieve chip recovery. So take profit on the short position at a low level, then see if you can make another hedge short position above the range. However, I think going long at a low level might be safer. But for BTC, I might not consider hedging anymore, because if the main force is accumulating strength, it would be disastrous. I see on large orders, the main force is clearly deliberately suppressing the price, capping large orders. Once the orders are withdrawn, it will surge.
As mentioned before, altcoins really dropped, so let's take advantage and lower the holding cost. So continue holding the $UNI short position. If it bounces very high, I will add to hedge or reduce spot holdings.
Build positions on dips in October, at least 90% of the position remains. Two weeks left, come on BTC, come on everyone! James Wayne: Completely Silent!
The king of high-leverage volatility accounts that went to zero and emptied positions, James Wayne, who once swept through Hyperliquid with high leverage, heavy positions, and quick in-and-out trades, now has a fully zeroed on-chain account with no holdings, no positions, and an account value of 0.
Current Status
Public Positions: None (fully exited)
Account Value: 0 U
Last On-Chain Activity: Stuck on March 30, only a small BTC short test order was seen, no major moves since then
Market Signal
This gambler-type trader, who has repeatedly created single trades with tens of millions in profit or loss, is now completely empty and watching.
Two interpretations: One is that he believes there is currently a lack of highly certain one-sided market trends and prefers to stay empty rather than force trades; the other is that he may have started anew with an anonymous small account, as he historically has a habit of changing accounts. For retail investors, even the most gambling-prone Whale stepping back often signals the market entering a phase of disorderly oscillation with very low win rates, sharply increasing the risks of blindly chasing highs and selling lows. $BTC $ETH
#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations 70 minutes after the draw, the bulls were wiped out 💥
20:30, the draw. Core 2.6% exceeded expectations, leaning hawkish.
20:31, I was watching the market. BTC started a slow decline from 82797, ETH 2500 was on the brink. I thought: the bulls trying to bottom-fish are going to have a bad night.
21:58, the first strike came. In a single minute, long positions liquidated 9.4 million, 155 orders. I counted three times, no mistake.
22:05, the second strike. 1.76 million BTC longs and 1.25 million ETH longs were liquidated simultaneously. Prices settled at 82125 and 2438.
22:15 review: 62.43 million liquidated network-wide in 1 hour, 90% were longs dying; 240 million in 24 hours, 74,596 people liquidated.
Before the draw, longs and shorts fought each other; after the draw, a one-sided slaughter of longs. The lurking bulls bet on "all bad news priced in," but the bad news wasn’t fully out, causing stop-loss and liquidation cascades.
Fee rate split: BTC still positive, bulls not giving up; ETH turned negative, shorts took over. ETH down 2.99% today, ETF outflows for 10 consecutive days dragging it down.
BERA +7.3% to 0.2365, but fee rate -0.0109%, shorts adding positions; A +4.59% to 0.1045. The rise of these altcoins is borrowed strength.
My judgment: the long liquidation is not over yet. BTC 82000 is the critical point, break it and look at 81000. ETH 2400 break leads to 2300 next. No bottom-fishing tonight, let the bullets fly a little longer. Who is sending money to Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet?
Just took a look at Satoshi's address, current holdings:
1,096,000 $BTC, valued at $83,753 each, worth $91.8 billion, accounting for 5.22% of the entire network.
His genesis address: Over these 15 years, 66,911 transactions, cumulatively received 57.65 BTC. On average, about $72 per transaction.
The largest single transaction was 26.9 BTC at the beginning of 2024—accounting for more than 40% of the total received in one go.
CB's product lead Conor Grogan said at the time: "Either Satoshi woke up and bought 27 bitcoins to deposit into the wallet, or someone burned $1 million."
Why are people still sending money to Satoshi every day now?
As a tribute, to make an on-chain mark, or simply to be "someone who has sent money to Satoshi."
67,000 transactions—do you think this is truly a tribute, or collective self-indulgence? $BTC $BTC $ETH $SOL Liquidation Heatmap + Market Resonance, Market Sentiment Analysis
The total liquidation amount in 24 hours is 295 million, with 81.7% being long liquidations, representing a typical macro-driven concentrated long liquidation.
The heatmap clearly shows: BTC and ETH have the highest liquidation amounts, with ETH long liquidations accounting for 86.9%, even higher than BTC's 79.4%. ETH leveraged longs are the hardest hit, perfectly matching the market trend—ETH's decline is deeper, and high-leverage longs are being liquidated en masse.
Combining BTC and ETH 30-minute candlesticks, there is a large-volume bearish candle, and together with this liquidation data, it shows that this round of decline is not caused by shorts actively dumping but by CPI inflation exceeding expectations + the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, tightening macro expectations, triggering a collective stop-loss stampede among leveraged longs.
A large number of bottom-fishing longs and high-position ambush longs are forcibly liquidated, directly extinguishing market enthusiasm for bottom-fishing. Current market sentiment:
1. Leveraged longs' confidence is severely shaken; no one dares to leverage to bottom-fish casually, and short-term leveraged funds choose to exit and observe;
2. BTC is relatively resistant to the drop, ETH is more elastic, and high-leverage positions are concentrated in ETH, making ETH the hardest hit in this liquidation round;
3. Short liquidations account for a very low proportion, indicating shorts have not massively taken profits, and shorts still hold the short-term advantage.
Current market mindset: After a wave of long liquidations, short-term floating profit longs are basically cleared, but extreme panic has not yet arrived. Bottom-fishing funds will become extremely cautious, reluctant to chase rebounds, and most choose to watch from the sidelines