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做杠杆的今晚盯一个你平时不看的角落：债券一级市场。美国银行罕见地在周五发债，最长期限 11 年；与此同时，好几家企业这几天悄悄推迟了高评级债券发行。
原因写得明明白白——通胀强于预期，叠加市场对 AI 交易的担忧，美债收益率一波动，企业就不敢发债了。翻译成人话：给整个风险市场供血的那根管子，水压在往下掉。
$BTC 这种纯靠流动性和风险偏好吃饭的资产，最该盯的从来不是自己那根 K 线，而是这种融资端的水位。水在退的时候，别急着下水。你觉得这轮收紧是暂时的，还是刚开了个头？#Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike this year? Beware of a bull trap rebound! BTC/ETH key watershed has been set, hidden risks in the market
$BTC This rebound hides structural risks, 82,000 is the current core dividing line between bulls and bears. Last night the price dipped to 79,775 but quickly recovered, the 80,000 level held well, but the 82,600–83,000 range above is strongly resistant, difficult to break through in the short term.
After the PPI data release, the market first dropped then pulled up, hitting a low of 79,694 and rising to 82,520. Although it looks like a strong rebound, in fact, there was $929 million in leverage liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with long liquidations reaching $777 million. This rise is a typical short covering rally, spot funds lack sustained follow-through, and the recovery strength is very limited. The market must effectively hold above 82,000 to confirm continuation of the rebound; if it falls below 81,000, it will likely retest the 80,000 support.
$ETH Short-term 2,400 is the critical line of defense. After rebounding from the low of 2,317, the golden retracement at 2,397 coincides with the 2,400 level, marking the core short-term strength boundary. Holding 2,400 targets a rebound to 2,450; if broken, it will first test 2,380, with risk of retesting previous lows in a weak market.
On-chain signals are clearly bearish: large whales reduced 170,000 ETH in 24 hours, market funding rates turned negative simultaneously, large funds continue to withdraw, short-term bullish momentum is weak, operations must be cautious.Yesterday everyone was asking: Can the critical 80,000 level still hold?
On Friday, the answer came — it held.
This week saw three rounds of sell-offs, all directly hitting the 80,000 defense line: Tuesday at 80,168, Wednesday at 80,033, and Thursday’s low touched 79,725.
Each dip’s low point kept moving lower, but the rebound speed after bottoming out got faster each time.
Three probes, three types of sell-off patterns, yet the 80,000 gate was never breached.
Yesterday’s most dramatic spike down hit 79,725, but within just a few hours it quickly recovered, climbing back above 82,000, currently priced at 82,114.
Many misread the source of this support: it wasn’t institutions holding up the market.
Recently, ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, with institutional funds still on the sidelines watching.
The real force resisting selling pressure is the on-chain whales. Large holders’ selling pressure has clearly waned, and during this downturn, they have been quietly accumulating spot positions.
Market funds are polarizing: retail investors are redeeming ETFs and exiting, while on-chain whales keep buying in the spot market.
So the reality to recognize is: holding 80,000 is a fact, but this bottom is built by whales, not institutions.
Whales are long-term slow money; a base supported by slow money is more resilient.
Whales’ willingness to buy at this level means the price is recognized by capital;
But as long as institutional funds don’t return, this rebound lacks the core momentum for sustained upward attack.
Going forward, watch two key signals:
First, ETFs shift from outflows to net inflows, indicating institutional funds re-entering;
Second, Bitcoin effectively stabilizing above 83,000, which confirms a trend reversal.
Current price is 82,000, still 1,000 short of 83,000.
Until both signals are fulfilled simultaneously, 79,700 can only be considered a phase bottom, not a confirmed trend reversal.
Let’s talk: do you think the 80,000 defense line can still hold at Monday’s open?$DNA 现在的项目方真是把散户当傻子哄，拿一成多的初始流通盘出来开席，居然还有脸在里写“固定总量、无通胀”。
刚上线的新币DNA总量足足10亿枚，今天TGE只放出来1.3亿枚在外面，剩下高达87%的天量筹码全捏在狗庄手里。接下来整整39个月，每个月都要雷打不动地线性释放往市场里倒货。这叫哪门子的无通胀？这分明是给接盘侠量身定制的三年期分期买单局。
新币向来是开盘即巅峰，现价直接空进去，替项目方接盘这种低流通的空气，不如直接坐到狗庄这边一起砸！At 2 a.m., I withdrew the ETH take-profit order. The position cost is 2180, now at 2460, with an unrealized gain of 12.8%. The original order was placed at 2520. Withdrawing it is not greed; the ETH/BTC rate rose today from 0.0288 to 0.0300. Once this level holds, it indicates capital is favoring ETH. I don't want to trade chips during the early rotation phase.
BTC only rose 2.3%, ETH rose 5.1%, a significant difference. NEAR surged 14.9% in a single day—high beta is running, indicating market risk appetite is warming up, not just BTC alone rising. But I don't see this as trend confirmation. BTC is still hovering around 82000; without a valid breakout above 84000, I won't add any new positions, nor chase existing altcoin positions.
My approach is simple: keep the main position unchanged, move ETH stop-loss up to 2320 to lock in profits, and leave the rest to the market. If it rises, continue holding; if it falls back, I won't lose all the unrealized gains from this segment. Position management is much more important than direction judgment, especially in this kind of low-volume rebound.
Are you adding positions now or waiting for BTC to make a move first?
Follow me for continuous sharing of live trading logic and position strategies
#BTC #XAUT Keep an eye on $BTC tonight and take a look at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: it has fallen for eight consecutive days, marking the longest losing streak since May 2006.
The key point is "eight consecutive days." A single-day plunge is emotional, but eight consecutive trading days of decline is structural — institutions are withdrawing piece by piece, not retail investors panic-selling on a single candle. Check for yourself when the last time such a long losing streak happened, and what happened to chip stocks afterward.
The biggest fear in trading is mistaking a structural retreat for "oversold and due for a rebound." There will be rebounds, but until the overall trend changes, those are just opportunities to reduce positions, not invitations to bottom-fish. What’s your take on this wave of chip stocks?CPI 3.7%，比预期只高 0.1%
核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，预期是 0.2%。
这个数怎么算的：
核心 CPI 是把食品和能源剔掉再算。
这两样价格最跳，剔掉才看得清底层。
高 0.1% 不是误差，是没降下来。
容易误读的地方：
市场怕的从来不是 CPI 本身。
怕的是它压着利率不松。
利率不松，$ETH 这种带科技属性的先挨打。
CPI 落地不等于利空出尽。
后面还有 PPI 和官员讲话。
数据没转向前，波动不会自己停。
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#$ETH Trader's Perspective: Three Abnormal Signals in This Adjustment Wave
$BTC｜Support at 81,000 Tested Three Times
Glassnode shows BTC's real market average at 78,000, the US spot ETF average holding cost at 81,500, very close to the current price, with institutions also in a floating loss zone.
While retail investors panic sell, whales have quietly accumulated 15,000 BTC in 72 hours; BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of 16.78 million USD yesterday. Despite the panic, funds are silently stepping in.
$ETH｜ETF Continues Outflows, Whales Aggressively Accumulate Against the Trend
ETH ETFs had outflows for 10 consecutive days, but whales increased holdings by over 166,000 ETH in 72 hours, equivalent to 400+ million USD. From October 10-13, ETFs saw a net inflow of 24.84 million, signaling the end of outflows.
The market remains bearish in sentiment, yet large capital is quietly positioning—a classic case of a perception gap.
$SOL｜Market Flatlines, On-Chain Data Hits Peak Heat
Active addresses reached 1.88 million, a 13-month high; on-chain stablecoin supply surpassed 15 billion. Price consolidates sideways, but the on-chain ecosystem remains vibrant. The cup-and-handle pattern is intact; only a break above 240 will trigger the main uptrend.
Veteran Trader's Rule: During panic phases, watch on-chain data; during FOMO phases, watch candlesticks.
Hold BTC as a base position, wait for sustained positive ETF signals for ETH, and patiently hold SOL awaiting a breakout.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Recently, $BTC has faced another negative factor: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) might be kicked out of the MSCI index.
Many people, upon hearing this news, wonder if Strategy will be forced to sell its coins.
MSCI's point is simple: although Strategy is now a publicly listed company, what it basically does is financing to buy BTC, then financing again to buy more. Rather than being an operating company, it is more like a BTC investment vehicle.
Many in the market say that if it is removed, it could trigger about $2.8 billion in sell-offs. After checking, the sell-off refers to stocks, not BTC.
So, this is not something to worry about in the short term.
The real issue to consider is why Strategy has been able to keep buying coins all these years. It's simply because of capital market financing. If MSTR's stock price continues to be under pressure and the valuation premium keeps shrinking, it will be harder to finance BTC purchases in the future, so we need to worry about MicroStrategy's future buying power.
The final removal list will be announced on November 11.Level 8 Gale｜CPI, PPI, and Fed rate hike expectations triple strike! How will the market move next?
Data release triggered short covering, leading to a rebound driven by selling the expectation and buying the reality.
The main reason for this PPI surge is oil prices; core inflation is not as scary as imagined. The market did not immediately price in a rate hike, only a delay in rate cuts.
The Fed has two remaining meetings this year: October 27-28 and December 8-9.
For October, due to sticky CPI inflation, the market is starting to speculate on the possibility of a rate hike, but this is only market expectation and does not mean a hike will definitely happen. I believe the probability of no change is highest! Because a real hike would affect the event on November 3!
However, even if the Fed does not hike, if the tone is hawkish and signals that high rates will be maintained longer, it will still suppress risk assets.
December is the year-end meeting, accompanied by the dot plot, which will update officials' views on the future rate path and have a stronger impact. It is highly likely there will be one more hike.
The main market driver is US Treasury yields; the outcome of the October decision will directly determine the short-term direction of BTC, ETH, and SOL.
Market forecast: first a southward pullback, then a northward move to test 90,000.
BTC: 69,590—76,289
ETH: 2,067—2,123
SOL: 86—95
Just personal opinion, not investment advice. The market is highly volatile; trade at your own risk.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
$BTC $ETH $SOL Near 82200, closely watch the volatility switching signals
BTC stabilized near 82200 with a slight rise, local volatility expanded but has not yet reached historical highs.
The core of this rebound is short covering, not new incremental funds entering. The total open interest across the network remains generally stable; funds are just flowing across platforms without large-scale exits.
The 24-hour liquidation volume has increased, with a large amount of long positions cleared earlier; in the past 4 hours, the market reversed and shorts began to be liquidated. Funding rates are all positive, with longs paying overnight costs.
There is a clear expectation gap: many large holders who verbally appear bearish are actually quietly positioning.
The sustainability of this impulse driven by short covering is questionable; going forward, focus on two signals:
• Whether new positions can continue to accumulate
• Whether short-term short squeezes can spread throughout the day
Old chips are gradually exiting, and a new round of competition has not fully opened yet.
$BTC $ETH $SOL# US CPI and PPI Both Exceed Expectations, Will There Be Another Rate Hike This Year?
The leader has something to say
Both CPI and PPI exceeded expectations. PPI year-on-year is 6.3%, expected 5.3%. Month-on-month 1.3%, expected 0.5%. Core PPI also exceeded all expectations. CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, also higher than expected. Inflation pressure is more stubborn than anticipated.
But after Walsh's speech, the bet on a rate hike in October dropped to 15%. He said he does not predict the future nor reveal whether there will be a hike in October. Officials like Daly and Goolsbee also hold cautious attitudes toward immediate action. The market is betting the Fed will not act immediately.
My judgment is that the data is on the hot side, but the Fed will hold steady. Inflation hasn't come down, rate hike expectations are suppressed, US Treasury yields remain high, and risk assets are under short-term pressure. But the momentum to crash the market is insufficient because the market does not believe a hike will happen immediately.
Bitcoin is now fluctuating around 80,000, with 80,000 becoming the dividing line between bulls and bears. A break could trigger stop-loss selling and a downward probe; holding above means consolidation and recovery. After closing my short at 81,500, Bitcoin rebounded strongly, and now I am out of position.
No rush to act. Wait for a pullback near 80,000 to see if it holds, try light long positions if volume shrinks and it doesn't break, stop loss at 79,000. If volume increases and it breaks down, wait for a lower level. Resistance above is between 84,000 and 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the dip; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck to you. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $CRWV opened tonight with a direct plunge of 7.7%. Don't treat it as just another daily fluctuation of a speculative stock—CoreWeave is the most leveraged and externally funded link in the entire AI computing power financing chain. When it coughs, it means the funds willing to keep burning money on AI are starting to hesitate.
The reason I’m holding onto those short positions in my account is that I’m waiting for this kind of signal. While the whole screen is still shouting that AI is the vast frontier, the weakest link in the entire chain is the first to break, and that’s more honest than any candlestick.
For those trading on leverage, remember this: bubbles rarely burst at the most expensive spots; they usually burst first where money is tightest. Do you think this drop in $CRWV is an overreaction or a warning sign?这轮牛市比较稳的几个标的，简单说下逻辑：
$BTC ： 全球资产普跌，美股、韩股都出现明显回撤，但 BTC 相对抗跌，跌幅甚至没到 10%。如果其他风险资产逐渐止跌，BTC 有机会率先走强，后续重点看 10 万、12 万美元，甚至再创新高。
$UNI ： 五年长期洗盘，上一轮牛市表现相对平淡，筹码结构值得关注。本轮又有 CME 期货、Robinhood 链上业务等催化，叠加协议自身的价值捕获预期，重新挑战 20 美元附近的前高值得期待。
$CRCL ： 当前市值约 200 亿美元。Circle 的行情很大程度上取决于稳定币规模增长、利率环境和市场流动性。如果牛市进入增量资金加速流入阶段，当前的利空可能被重新定价。
MSTR：本质上是高波动的 BTC 相关资产，弹性更大，风险基本会比特币差不多，但是收益会更大。
NEAR：AI➕匿名隐私双重概念，强庄控盘，进入市值前十只是时间问题。
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Short-term holders currently hold 4.08 million BTC, which is 422,000 more than the low point in July. The meaning is straightforward: the coins are transferring from long-term holders to newcomers.
The benefit is that new funds are willing to buy at the current price, indicating chip turnover rather than a one-sided exit. However, be cautious because this group has a high cost basis and a short mindset; they tend to flee at the slightest sign of trouble. Their average cost line often acts as a market watershed—if it holds, they continue holding; if it breaks, concentrated selling is likely.
Next, watch three things: whether the holding volume is still increasing, where the average cost roughly lies, and if there is a volume-driven decline. For $BTC, this is not a directional signal but more of a volatility signal: the holding structure is getting younger, and short-term fluctuations will only be amplified."Around 82200, watching volatility switching signals"
BTC stabilized above 82200 early this morning with a slight rise; short-term volatility has expanded but has not yet reached historical highs.
This round of rebound mainly comes from short covering, not from new capital inflows; total open interest remains generally stable, with funds mostly migrating across platforms rather than large-scale exits.
The 24-hour liquidation scale has expanded, with early concentrated long liquidations; in the past 4 hours, the situation reversed, short liquidations have started to increase, funding rates are all positive, and longs are bearing overnight costs.
A very typical divergence between expectations and positions has appeared: many vocal bearish large holders are actually quietly building positions.
Currently, the pulse rally brought by short covering has not yet confirmed its sustainability. Next, focus on two key points:
1. Whether new positions can continue to accumulate
2. Whether short squeezes in the short term can spread to the full-day cycle
Old chips are slowly exiting, and a new round of game has not fully opened yet.
$BTC $ETH $SOLIt's this guy again! He's clearly determined to convert all his BTC into ETH. In less than 24 hours, this whale sold 288.9 BTC, cashing out 23.48 million USDT, then immediately poured every cent into ETH, buying 9,820 ETH in one go. And this is just a single day's operation. Looking over a 5-day period, it's even more astonishing: a total sale of 1,601 BTC, equivalent to 132 million USD, all swapped into 53,095 ETH, with an average entry cost of only $2,497. This move is very clear— in his view, BTC's cost-performance ratio is far inferior to ETH's right now. Over 100 million USD in funds have been aggressively rotated over five consecutive days. Either he got some insider information unknown to ordinary people, or the altcoin season is really about to begin. Historically, such large-scale "selling BTC to buy ETH" actions often signal capital starting to flow out, spreading from the leader to secondary coins. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO#Meta's massive AI investment enters the return verification period. Folks, Meta's earnings report is next week, and the market is focused on one thing: with so much money burned on AI, can the advertising business really hold up?
Q2 revenue was 60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, with capital expenditures at 31.1 billion. The Q3 guidance is 61 to 64 billion, but capital expenditures will continue to rise. Zuckerberg's AI investment is the most aggressive among the big seven, often throwing in hundreds of billions of dollars.
Here's the issue. Advertising revenue is Meta's foundation, but whether the growth rate can sustain such high spending is uncertain in the market. If this earnings report shows a slowdown in ad growth while capital expenditures keep soaring, the stock price will face significant pressure. Conversely, if advertising continues double-digit growth and AI investments can tell a story of returns, it will stabilize.
For our BTC, Meta's earnings report is a risk appetite indicator. If it exceeds expectations, tech stock sentiment will recover, and BTC can catch a breather. If it falls short, the US tech sector will collectively come under pressure, and BTC won't escape either. $BTC $META 【Short-term BTC holdings surged to 4.08 million coins: Are there more bottom-fishers or more trapped holders?】
4.08 million $BTC are classified as short-term holders, which looks like a large influx of new funds entering the market. On-chain statistics define short-term holders as wallets holding coins for less than 155 days, which does not necessarily mean these coins were recently purchased, nor does it imply that buyers are currently profitable.
This represents chip turnover: some are bottom-fishing, some chasing the rally, and others exiting during the rebound; all may be counted as short-term holdings. Recently, BTC rebounded above $84,000, but institutional ETF outflows continue to weigh it down. The strong price and incremental funds have not fully aligned.
Going forward, more attention should be paid to whether the unrealized losses of short-term holders continue to increase and whether there is sustained spot buying during rebounds. The 4.08 million coins is neither a bullish signal nor immediate evidence of a sell-off. If the price strengthens, short-term holdings keep increasing, and ETFs turn to net inflows, it would more likely indicate new demand entering; otherwise, this batch of chips could become selling pressure on the rebound path.⚡️Five “data bombs” on the screen at once, don’t rush to take sides.
📉Initial claims: 197,000 → expected 200,000. Higher than expected = cooling employment, slightly bullish; lower than expected = labor force still tight, slightly bearish.
🛒Retail sales: previous 1.1%, expected 0.3%. Too hot risks inflation rebound; too cold means economic cooling. But the previous base was high, so insufficient decline also hides bearish signals.
🏭PPI: annual expected 5.3%, monthly 0.5%. Annual lower than expected is a relief; if monthly exceeds 0.5%, upstream inflation rises again, which hurts risk assets the most.
🏙New York Fed manufacturing: 7.6 → 10.25. Stronger than expected = economy is strong, bearish; weaker than expected = softer, bullish.
🪙Market: $BTC stuck between 80,000—88,000. 88,000 is the two-year chip cost, a rebound means some get out of loss; 80,000 overlaps with ETF cost 81,500, losing it means losing a layer of support. Fear & Greed index 62 → 53, greed is retreating.
$ETH holds 2,350, break below targets 2,262, only above 2,404 stops the bleeding; SOL 100 is the September defense line, break targets 95.8. On October 7, ETF net outflow was 485 million, institutions are also hiding.
🎯Don’t heavily position before data, wait for the cards to fall, set stop loss first. When the market makes a move, we respond. #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
⚠️ Netflix is particularly sensitive to earnings reports, especially revenue and next quarter guidance. If Q3 (or Q4) earnings fall short of expectations, the short-term stock price will depend on the degree of deviation and whether guidance is lowered accordingly. A slight miss usually results in a post-market drop of about 5%‑8%, with many institutions choosing to wait and see; if both revenue and advertising income miss and next quarter guidance is below market expectations, post-market declines of 9%‑12% often occur, accompanied by institutions lowering target prices, and the market reexamining the growth logic of subscription price hikes and advertising business; if there is a significant slowdown in growth or weakening profit margins—larger negative surprises—historically single-day drops exceeding 20% and valuation downgrades have occurred. Currently, the market values Netflix based on steady growth and relatively high operating margins. Once growth confidence is damaged, the long-term PE ratio may be further compressed. If the company can only place hopes on ad packages, live streaming, and content cost control without clear implementation timelines, short-term capital tends to withdraw, usually waiting for subsequent earnings reports to recover before strengthening again. Additionally, it is worth noting that often this quarter's data is acceptable, but weaker guidance for the next quarter causes the stock price to fall more sharply. Of course, final performance is also influenced by the broader market, exchange rates, market sentiment, and other factors, and historical trends do not guarantee future results. Last night while watching the market, $BTC once again gently dipped below 80,000, and I clenched my palm. 🫧 But it didn’t stay there long and was quickly pulled back above. Who exactly is this "fake fall" trying to shake out? At that moment, I realized the market wasn’t trading on panic but was repricing a series of macro signals. U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil prices have all taken a slight breather these days, and risk appetite has warmed up a bit, so $BTC and $ETH experienced a wave of corrective rebound. But here’s the question: is this rebound strong enough to support a trend reversal? My own observation is that this looks more like an event-driven short-term revaluation rather than a complete macro environment turnaround. The yield decline only gave the market a breathing window, but the dollar and oil prices could turn around at any time. Once they strengthen again, risk assets will immediately come under pressure. The transmission chain is actually very clear: macro pressure eases slightly -> risk appetite temporarily rises -> $BTC finds support near 80,000 -> $ETH follows with a rebound but with weaker momentum. The key point here is that $BTC’s resistance is clearly better than $ETH’s; the capital allocation within major coins already reveals a cautious attitude. $ETH has support near 2,350, but the resistance at 2,480 is heavier, and the willingness to follow the rebound is weak, indicating the market’s medium-term confidence in it hasn’t truly returned. The more bullish path is: if U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continue to weaken, $BTC can hold above 83,00 #ETF and whale funds diverge, can BTC hold $80,000? The underlying logic is not contradictory. ETF funds are driven by macro interest rate expectations; CPI and PPI inflation data exceeded expectations, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and institutions reduce positions temporarily to control portfolio risk, a short-term tactical move. Meanwhile, on-chain whales are mostly long-term holders who value the allocation opportunity after price pullbacks, accumulating coins in batches during declines, focusing on long-term cycles and indifferent to short-term volatility.
But note: whales bottom-fishing ≠ immediate price rebound. Whales buy gradually in batches and won’t violently push the price up all at once. In the short term, the market lacks incremental ETF buying support, limiting rebound strength, with heavy resistance above; the $80,000 level will be repeatedly tested. If short-term selling pressure is released intensively, the $80,000 support risks being broken; only when shorts are fully cleared and ETF funds flow back can this level be stabilized.
Transmission logic: fund divergence likely maintains wide-range oscillation. Bull-bear battles intensify, and spike moves will increase. If the $80,000 level is repeatedly tested without a decisive break, it indicates strong support below; a volume-backed break would open deeper correction space.
Key follow-ups: daily ETF fund flows, whale address position changes, U.S. Treasury yields, and Nasdaq correlation performance. $BTC $ETH $SNDK MSCI is advancing index inclusion rule adjustments targeting Bitcoin treasury companies. Enterprises holding large amounts of BTC, such as Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet, may face the risk of being removed from major stock indices. ⚠️ 📊 JPMorgan estimates: If Strategy is removed from the relevant indices, MSTR stock could face approximately $2.8 billion in capital outflow pressure. It is important to note that this refers to potential capital outflows in the stock market and does not mean these funds will directly convert into BTC sell-offs. 📌 Key dates: 🗓️ November 11: Announcement of the final list of affected companies 🗓️ After market close on November 30: Relevant rules officially take effect 🔍 What is truly worth paying attention to? The core risk is not Bitcoin treasury companies being forced to sell BTC, but that index adjustments may weaken the stock market demand for these companies, thereby affecting their future financing capabilities and the pace of continued Bitcoin accumulation. If corporate financing channels tighten, the market may need to reassess the long-term path of institutional funds entering the BTC market through listed companies. 📈 Going forward, investors should focus on MSCI's final decision, MSTR stock performance, corporate financing ability, and the capital flow of spot BTC. This is not a simple BTC sell-off issue but a question of whether the Bitcoin corporate treasury model can continue to expand. Do you think this index adjustment will affect the market's long-term valuation of Bitcoin treasury companies? $BTC #CryptDon't get carried away with this rebound in the Korean stock market.
Yesterday, the KOSPI dropped 7.57%, triggering a circuit breaker during the session. Samsung fell -9.48%, $xSKHY Hynix dropped -11.06%, and foreign investors sold off 3.62 trillion KRW in one day.
This morning's early session bounced over 2%, which looks like a recovery but is actually short covering plus a scramble to catch the rebound. The key thing to watch isn't how much it rose, but that foreign investors haven't stopped selling—they were still net sellers in the morning session. The South Korean government quickly convened a meeting, saying they will strengthen monitoring of the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets.
Such statements are mostly for calming nerves, not signals of a fundamental turnaround. On the memory side, although Samsung and Hynix bounced, foreign capital hasn't returned, indicating that big money doesn't really accept this level. The semiconductor correction isn't over yet, and tech stocks overall remain under pressure. This is not good news for $BTC. Global risk appetite hasn't recovered, so the crypto market is unlikely to thrive independently.
However, Bitcoin has been relatively resilient lately because its pricing logic includes a layer of fiat credit hedging, so it doesn't fully follow tech stocks. The 80,000 level remains critical: short-term support is between 81,500–82,000; if broken, look to 80,000; resistance is between 83,500–84,500, which won't be surpassed without volume.
Don't chase this rebound in your trades. Wait until foreign investors stop net selling or the semiconductor sector stabilizes consecutively before considering entry. At this point, watching from the sidelines is safer than jumping in.
#KoreanStockRecoveryRebound CanForeignSellingPressureEase? Observation: Retail investors are bleeding from ETF sell-offs, while whales are frantically accumulating around $80,000
BTC is struggling near the $80,000 mark, and the overall market remains lifeless.
The capital flow is quite fragmented; ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,209 BTC in a single day, equivalent to $258 million, with retail investors fleeing in panic.
However, Bitfinex data shows that since late August, whales have quietly scooped up 60,000 BTC in the $80,000 to $86,000 range.
Chips are rapidly shifting from weak hands to strong hands.
CPI and PPI have consecutively exceeded expectations, and the anticipation of rate hikes still looms overhead, keeping risk assets heavily suppressed.
The $80,000 level has become a psychological battleground for bulls and bears.
This bloodletting process is always brutal, so don’t bet on direction to avoid getting stopped out!
#ETF and whale capital divergence, can BTC hold $80,000? Misconception Breakdown: FIL ≠ ICP, Division of Storage and Computing Tracks
Both belong to the DePIN track, but their roles are completely different and they are not direct competitors.
$FIL: Decentralized Hard Drive
Positioned for the Web3 cold storage market, specifically for storing large-capacity static files such as AI datasets, RWA, NFTs, etc.
Does not run contracts or perform computations; revenue comes from storage orders, miners provide hard drives to earn token rewards, with the core logic being massive AI data storage.
Growth drivers: storage orders, AI archiving demand; pressure: continuous token release selling pressure from miners.
$ICP: Decentralized Server (L1 Public Chain + Computing Cloud)
Storage is just an auxiliary capability, focusing on on-chain computing, capable of hosting complete websites, backend programs, AI inference, enabling full-stack applications on-chain, with built-in chain key cross-chain capabilities.
Growth drivers: application deployment, on-chain AI, enterprise sovereign cloud; pressure: node staking unlocking inflation.
In summary:
FIL stores raw AI datasets, ICP runs AI model inference, and the two can cooperate. $FIL $ICP#VanEck停止推进Lido质押以太坊ETF $ETH
This registration statement was filed on October 16, 2025, and withdrawn on October 16, 2026, with no sales made during the year.
▪️ VanEck submitted a withdrawal request to the SEC to withdraw the ETF registration statement and its attachments
▪️ The official reason given is that there are no longer plans to advance the issuance of shares for this product
▪️ The registration statement was initially filed on October 16, 2025
▪️ It did not receive SEC approval during this period, nor were any securities issued or sold
▪️ The product holds Lido protocol staked Ethereum certificates, not Ethereum itself
▪️ Most listed staking products operate their own validator nodes
The disagreement is not about the withdrawal itself, but whether the withdrawal concerns the product or the underlying asset.
Staking products need to answer two questions: where the returns come from, and who fronts the money on redemption day. Holding a staking certificate means the fund assumes the operational and penalty risks of the validator node, while the fund redeems based on its own net asset value. Operating your own validator node allows you to control these two aspects, whereas the certificate route depends on the third party's unbonding period.
The direction is to wait and see — re-filing with a different underlying asset means this path is still open; stopping here means certificate-based products are out for now.📅 NOV 11: THE $2.8B RISK.
MSCI has introduced rules that could exclude Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy and Metaplanet from major stock indexes.
JPMorgan estimates that removing Strategy from these indexes could lead to around $2.8B in MSTR share outflows — not direct $BTC selling.
📌 Final list of affected companies: November 11
📌 Rules take effect: After the November 30 close
The bigger concern isn’t forced Bitcoin sales.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins After Bitcoin fell below 80,000, it quickly rebounded, essentially driven by short covering liquidity release rather than fundamental improvement.
The current rebound is basically over, with a high of 82,600 USD, suppressed at the previous strong support level of 82,800 USD—which has now turned into a resistance level.
Currently, the buying support below 80,000 USD is significantly weakening, and new buying has failed to effectively fill the liquidity vacuum, leaving the market facing structural fragility risks.
In other words, if Bitcoin falls below 80,000 USD again, it will be a sharp drop, directly plunging to around 75,000 USD seeking support. 📅 NOV 11: THE $2.8B QUESTION.
MSCI has adopted rules that could remove Bitcoin-treasury firms such as Strategy and Metaplanet from major equity indexes.
JPMorgan estimates a Strategy exclusion could trigger ~$2.8B in MSTR share outflows—not $BTC sales.
Final affected-company list: Nov 11.
Rules effective: after Nov 30 close.
The risk isn't forced Bitcoin selling. It's a tighter pipeline for financing future BTC purchases.
$BTC #CryptoTreasuryDurability 接下来一个月，三件大事挨个排着，提前给大家划重点。
10月19号，CME上线UNI和BCH期货。 这是CME头一回给DeFi治理代币开期货合约，分标准版和微型版，现金结算，CFTC监管。UNI现在7块附近，链上看到巨鲸一天从币安提走60万枚。说清楚，期货只是给机构开了个对冲工具，不会直接拉现货。长期是结构性利好，短期中性，等于多了个做空口子。
10月20号，ZEC的NU7升级投票。 主要改动是把出块时间从75秒砍到25秒，60%手续费进回收池，淘汰老版本交易。投票过了就敲定11月5号主网激活。测试网跑下来没出大毛病。这事儿成了中性偏多，黄了短期就是利空。ZEC现在1235，下方支撑1175，盯紧这个位置。
10月21号，SOL的Alpenglow主网升级。 确认时延压到150毫秒，淘汰老的TowerBFT机制。中期利好，但小心落地即卖事实。SOL现在105，上方压力125。
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 这段话的重点是：比特币虽然突破了 80,000 美元，但现货 ETF 没有持续提供强劲买盘，因此这轮反弹还缺少一个重要的确认信号。
1. ETF 资金到底在说明什么？
这段分析的逻辑是：
9 月下旬： 美国现货 BTC ETF 连续出现净流入，为比特币突破提供了资金支持。
10 月以来： 资金流入与流出交替出现，买盘没有延续之前的强度。
当前信号： 没有持续、大规模的资金撤出，说明市场未必已经转为全面看空；但持续买入不足，也意味着上涨动能可能不够强。
据 10 月 14 日的一份市场分析，9 月 17 日至 29 日，美国现货 BTC ETF 累计净流入约 30.8 亿美元；截至 10 月 13 日，10 月累计净流出约 2.76 亿美元。这支持了“9 月买盘强、10 月买盘减弱”的判断。
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 929 million USD vanished into thin air, but the culprit isn't a crash.
While inflation data screams wildly, the Federal Reserve handed the market a cup of ice water. The US September PPI soared 6.3% year-over-year, and CPI stubbornly high as well; the script should have been soaring rate hike expectations. Yet, Powell deliberately avoided talking about inflation and instead turned to discuss AI's long-term impact, forcefully slashing the October rate hike probability from 50% to 15%.
Hot data, cold officials. BTC barely gasped at the 82,000 level, but this gasp was bloody: $929 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with longs contributing $777 million. This is not a return of conviction but a meat grinder of short covering and leverage cleansing. The resistance at 83,500-84,500 is ironclad, and 80,000 below is the edge of a cliff.
Don't mistake tactical breathing for a trend reversal. Energy and services both rise; the root of inflation hasn't been pulled out. The time borrowed by the Fed comes at the cost of the ticking time bomb of inflation.
In this knife-edge blood-licking game, the most tormenting is never the crash but the long agony of the boot hanging in midair. After brief numbness, the next storm is already brewing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike within the year? #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $SOL 出块时间砍到200毫秒，10月9日晚上10点半左右在主网生效，盘面几乎没给反应。生效那天收在109，之后在100到113之间来回，写这篇时107上下。
这次提速走了七周，从250毫秒压到200毫秒，比最早的400毫秒砍掉一半，一秒能出5个块。挂单撤单更快，滑点更小，这些好处要在成交里慢慢体现，不会在生效当天变成一根阳线。
跌在升级前就走完了大半。10月7日到8日从120掉到105附近，BTC同一段也从8.5万退到8.2万，是整个盘子在降杠杆，和提速无关。之后SOL合约资金费率多数在0.005%到0.008%，偏正，没顶到0.01%的上限，9月下旬那几天是连着顶格的。多头有人在，只是没人追。
我倾向于当成好事。利好落地不涨，很多人读成见光死，可见光死得先有人抢跑，9月底到10月初SOL一直在118到122横着，没走出抢跑行情。基本面往前走了一步，价格还停在跌完的地方，这种错位偏向多头。
10月21日还有一次共识升级激活。100在10月15日被试过一次，盘中最低100.56，收盘回到105，这根下影线是眼下最清楚的支撑，守在100上方，方向就还是朝上。Over the past five days, an on-chain address has been doing one thing: selling 1,601 BTC and exchanging it for $130 million, all bought in Ethereum $ETH — more than 53,000 coins, at an average price of 2,497.
It’s not betting on Ethereum itself rising. There are two ways to bet on Ethereum: one is to bet on the absolute price, watching the overall market sentiment; the other is to bet on the price ratio, wagering on the exchange rate recovery of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. This portfolio swap sold Bitcoin, belonging to the latter.
The conditions for the price ratio are a bit special now, with institutional supply and demand moving in opposite directions on both sides. On the Bitcoin side, ETFs are still bleeding, and treasury companies are distributing out; on the Ethereum side, the amount held by listed companies has reached 6.6% of the total supply, with these positions locked and not entering circulation. With one side leaking and the other accumulating, the price ratio is easier to lift — on the same day, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin by more than two points, lifting the price ratio from a multi-year low.
But a single address does not indicate a trend. These 53,000 coins are currently at a floating loss of about two points, just recently established and still climbing. Whether the signal holds depends on whether it becomes the action of a group of people or remains just one person’s choice.
2,495 to 2,500 is the pivot for this round, 2,411 is the recently tested low, and 2,580 above forms resistance. #韩股修复反弹，外资卖压能否缓解？
- 上半年那波AI行情涨太猛，不少外资本来就是来赚周期钱的，属于高位逐步减仓、做资产再平衡，不是短期吓出来的恐慌盘 ；
- 砸盘重心基本就盯着三星、SK海力士，两大存储龙头一被卖，指数就很难彻底摆脱压力；
- 根子还是看美联储预期+美债收益率+韩元汇率：只要美元那边风声偏紧、韩元不稳，外资就容易逢反弹兑现 。
那卖压能不能缓解？
- 短期有机会边际缓和：连续大卖之后抛盘动能有衰竭迹象、估值跌回到比较有吸引力区间、存储业绩如果能稳住，会有一部分资金停止无脑砸、改成观望或者做短线回补 ；
- 但很难立刻变成大规模持续回流：要真正扭转趋势，一般得同时看到：美债预期明显松、韩元企稳不再大幅贬值、HBM/存储盈利预期重新上修、韩国企业价值计划落地给信心#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 兄弟姐妹们
美国货币监理署署长Gould昨天放话：《GENIUS法案》的最终实施规则，10月底之前就要落地。
这条消息很多人没当回事，但做稳定币、做交易所的都绷着神经呢。简单说，这部法案就是给稳定币立规矩：以后在美国发支付型稳定币，必须拿联邦或州级牌照，储备资产要透明，还要接受监管审查。
时间表也很明确：2027年1月起，发币要牌照；2028年7月起，没牌照的稳定币，交易所不许再卖给美国用户。
谁最慌？那些储备不透明、全靠信用撑着的小稳定币。谁最受益？Circle、Paxos这些已经拿到牌照的头部，还有Coinbase这种能继续用稳定币奖励拉新的平台。
上个月参议院刚以49:50一票之差否掉了那个更严的"清晰法案"，等于给行业松了半口气。但松口气不等于躺平，最终规则怎么写，直接决定明年稳定币赛道的格局。
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $INJ 这个盘面，我早上说的话现在更得补一遍。
24小时拉了28%，成交是平时的3.4倍，天量。但你扒一下坐标就知道什么叫吓人——比30天前高了69%，比90天前高了77%，比半年前高了187%，接近三倍。半年前随便买的人现在账户翻了两倍多。
主力从7块一口气干到9块多，爆的是谁？是空头。空头被强平，买盘踩踏，K线一根比一根直，这叫逼空，看着最爽的时候往往也是接盘侠开始排队的时候。放天量不等于健康，放量到这种倍数，是有人在借这股力把货派给追高的人。$INJ Being bearish on the upcoming market movement does not mean it is worth opening a short position right now. The clearest stance from Ouge in this situation is: Bitcoin has returned to the range, the price sweeps up and down, and in the end, it may still return to the starting point; rather than continuously betting in the middle, it's better to focus on next week and wait for a rebound to set up trading positions. He does not interpret the short-term rebound as a trend reversal, nor does he ignore the bulls' resistance just because the overall direction is bearish. For him, these two things can coexist: still looking for opportunities to short on rallies later, but currently should reduce trading frequency. Direction judgment is one thing, entry position and confirmation signals are another. First, look at BTC. Ouge observes that after the price swept downward and pulled back, it repeatedly oscillated around the opening price during the day. This kind of movement looks more like bulls and bears testing each other rather than one side having taken over the trend. Chasing shorts after a drop or chasing longs after a rise tends to place stop losses right where the next sweep happens. His short-term scenario is that the price might needle down near 81500 or sweep around 83600 before returning to the original position. These numbers illustrate conditions for a volatile range that shakes out both ends, not confirmed breakout targets, nor a call to mechanically place orders at both ends. A direct rebound upward cannot be ruled out either; he does not rule out any particular path. More importantly, after the previous day's daily candle dipped and then recovered, there was a noticeable volume increase. In his interpretation, the bulls are not without resistance, and whether the short-term downward move can smoothly open space remains questionable. Consecutive few链上｜10/16：鲸鱼在 80-86k 悄悄吸，78-80k 是防线
24h 净流向：现货 ETF 再流出 2.61 亿（FBTC 1.53亿 / IBIT 1.11亿）｜链上鲸鱼持币 303 万 BTC（2025-11 来最高）
盯三个信号：
① 8 月底以来鲸鱼增持约 6 万枚，成本在 80k-86k，是这轮回调的承接主力
② 10/15 探 79,800 后 V 反，78-80k 是 ETF 抛压与鲸鱼成本的决战区（见图橙带）
③ 24h 全网爆仓 9.29 亿、多单占 90%，杠杆已洗；但 OI 仅降 1.54%，没真清
注意：链上数据滞后，鲸鱼也会错；图里标了关键防线位。
这波你站鲸鱼这边，还是 ETF 抛压那边？
$BTC #链上数据
数据公开整理，仅供参考，非投资建议。Conclusion first: Last night I said the bulls were all talk and no action, and tonight the price V-shaped back, with fees still sticking close to zero. This rebound is a solo show by the spot market, with leverage absent. Numbers: BTC 82,024, 24h +1.88%, low point 79,775 pulled back over two thousand three hundred. The 82,600 line at midday still didn't hold. ETH 2,465, +4.75%, SOL 105.6, +3.67%, altcoins actually outperformed the big coin. Fees: BTC 0.0037%, ETH 0.00015%, SOL 0.0034%, all three hovering just above zero. OI 24.6 billion dollars, no volume increase. Honestly, a reversal usually starts with fees climbing first, bulls willing to pay protection fees to chase higher. This current state is called a recovery, not a reversal. Money is rotating into altcoins; on BTC's side, there isn't even anyone adding leverage. Tonight until tomorrow morning, only one thing matters: 82,600. If it holds above that for two hours, the rebound upgrades to a reversal, and my "leverage absent" call is void, I'll admit I was wrong in tomorrow morning's opening. If it stays below 82,600 and fees continue to hover low, that 79,775 low will be tested again sooner or later. In your position, are there many people daring to add leverage now? 最近看到麻吉大哥的交易经历，说实话，第一反应不是羡慕，而是觉得太可惜了。 根据社区流传的数据，他曾在短短4个月里，把5.6万美元的账户资金做到1225万美元。 整整翻了200多倍！ 这是什么概念？ 可能很多交易者一辈子都没见过这样的收益。 但接下来的剧情，才是真正让人感慨的地方。 📉 从千万美元到只剩2万美元 这个账户的资金变化非常夸张： 💰 起步资金：5.6万美元 🚀 最高账户规模：1225万美元 📉 最后剩余：约2.18万美元 如果这些数据准确，就意味着账户从高点回撤超过99%。 曾经赚到过千万美元，最后却连最初的本金都没守住。 这背后最值得研究的，其实是交易中的一个问题：为什么盈利时舍不得离场，亏损时又不愿意及时止损？ 💡 这里涉及一个心理学概念：处置效应。 很多交易者容易过早卖出盈利仓位，却长期持有亏损仓位。 但在高杠杆交易中，还可能出现另一种情况： 赚了很多以后，觉得自己已经掌握了市场规律，于是不断扩大仓位，希望继续创造更高收益。 可市场不会因为你之前赚过多少钱，就降低下一次交易的风险。 账户从100万涨到1000万，和从1000万跌回100万，带来的心理冲击完全不Don't get carried away by the rebound, focus on three things today 🧐
$BTC: 82,000 is the watershed.
Last night, 79,775 was pulled back, there is support near 80,000, but 82,600-83,000 above feels like a wall. After PPI, it first dropped to 79,694, then surged to 82,520. Looks fierce, but actually $929 million in leverage was liquidated in 24 hours, with bulls accounting for $777 million. More like short covering, no follow-through in spot. Only a firm hold above 82,000 counts as recovery; if it falls below 81,000, be cautious of testing 80,000 again. 📉
$ETH: 2,400 is the lifeline.
After rising from 2,317, the 0.786 retracement near 2,397 overlaps with 2,400, a battleground for bulls and bears. Holding this level targets 2,450; losing it targets 2,380, and if weaker, watch for a return to previous lows. On-chain whales reduced about 170,000 ETH in 24 hours, funding rates turned negative, big money is withdrawing, don’t pretend not to see it. 🐋
11:30 Wash’s speech is a thunderbolt.
CPI month-on-month 0.6%, PPI month-on-month 1.3%, core PPI year-on-year 5%, inflation is not light. If he remains hawkish, the rebound may be suppressed; if not more hawkish, it’s just a breather, not a dovish turn. October rate hike odds are volatile, market nerves are tight. ⚡
My stance: don’t chase shorts on sharp drops, don’t chase longs on bullish candles. First listen to Wash, then watch 82,000 and 2,400. Avoid the drop, don’t rush to pay tuition in the volatility. 🧘
Personal review, not investment advice. #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? "Altcoin Market Retreats, Capital Returns to Blue Chips: NEAR, FIL, or SUI — Why I Only Keep SUI?"
Last night, the crypto market liquidation volume reached $930 million, and the capital flow direction has begun to change.
The previously frenzied altcoins are gradually cooling down, and funds are starting to seek more supported positions. NEAR, FIL, and SUI all staged deep V-shaped rebounds, indicating there is indeed support at low levels.
But a rebound does not equal a reversal. Comparing these three coins together, I ultimately chose only $SUI.
Why? Let's break it down one by one.
1. $NEAR: The gains are impressive, but the logic isn’t solid enough
Up 109% in the past 30 days, with a monthly increase of 178% in September alone, the elasticity is indeed remarkable.
The question is, what exactly is driving this surge? Currently, it is mostly driven by AI narratives and short-covering, lacking clear new capital catalysts. Last night, NEAR once dropped 10.1%, so volatility risk cannot be ignored.
Although Grayscale’s AI fund has included NEAR in its portfolio, this fund is a private placement product and cannot be directly equated with short-term spot buying.
Being able to rise is one thing; whether it can sustain the rise is another.
2. $FIL: Supply side improves, demand side still needs validation
The highlight of FIL lies in supply changes.
According to current related data, the six-year unlocking cycle is reaching its maturity point, with annual new supply expected to drop to 22 million tokens, a reduction of about 75%. Additionally, on October 13, PDP will launch on the mainnet, and on October 19 RSI 88! TSLAB volume exploded 70 times, is the Roadster flight night a takeoff or a bull trap?
Tesla Roadster flight demo night saw an after-hours rise of over 2%, $TSLA moved synchronously, with 15-minute volume reaching 70.9 times the baseline, and capital attention sharply increased. But RSI6 has surged to 88, seriously overbought, and after a MACD underwater golden cross with volume expansion, short-term pullback pressure is very high. Q3 global deliveries of 486,500 units exceeded expectations, providing fundamental support, but flight demos have historically had limited impact on market value, and Wall Street's reaction is cautious.
On the technical upgrade front, TSLAB has entered the BNB Chain Core Pool through Venus Protocol, with a collateral factor of 60% and a liquidation threshold of 70%, opening new narratives for DeFi composability. On the capital side, BNB Chain holders have reached 61,055, with 24-hour trading volume of 1.91M, and strong buy orders.
After the Roadster release, on Hyperliquid $xTSLA rose from 373 by +2.13%. Contract volume was 81.12 million, 24.3 times. Open interest increased from 46.7 million to 82.33 million, +76.3%, far exceeding the price increase—incremental leverage entering. Three major whales built long positions from zero, totaling 3.98 million at an average price of 377.60, a key resistance. The Q3 earnings report on October 21 is a variable.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Netflix released its quarterly report after market close on the 20th. The market expects revenue to be around $120 billion, with year-over-year growth just over 10%, and profit margins continuing to improve. However, the growth rate itself is no longer as strong, so the future depends on whether membership continues to rise and if advertising can truly support the business.
The market currently prices Yes at over seventy cents, showing optimism. The market has long been aware of the slowing growth; any real upside surprise must come from advertising and profits. Without that, the stock price is likely to suffer.Netflix will announce its Q3 earnings on October 20. I am betting on OKX that this quarter's earnings will exceed expectations (Yes). Currently, Wall Street's expectations for Netflix are not low, but I believe there are still several bullish reasons worth noting👇🏻 1️⃣ The effect of price increases in the U.S. market may be fully reflected this quarter. Netflix's Q3 revenue guidance given in the Q2 earnings report was $12.86 billion. This quarter is when the new round of price increases in the U.S. market is fully included in the results. Price increases do not necessarily directly lead to exceeding expectations, as user churn and package downgrades may offset some of the revenue. But if users accept the price adjustments well, average revenue has a chance to improve. 2️⃣ Advertising business could become an additional growth driver. Netflix is no longer just relying on subscription fees to make money; the advertising business is also a growth point worth watching next. If advertising revenue growth and the effect of subscription price increases both outperform expectations, then even if user watch time growth slows, it does not necessarily mean the company's revenue and profits will weaken accordingly. Of course, how much profit the advertising business growth ultimately contributes depends on the data disclosed in the earnings report; we cannot just look at the growth story. 3️⃣ Analyst expectations have recently been lowered. According to Zacks data on October 15, the market consensus EPS expectation for Netflix this quarter is about $0.82, which has been lowered over the past 30 days to 0