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#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 365-day profit ranking No. 23｜How to view the market driven by Tesla's new car
This Tesla new car price increase, is it a benefit brought by performance? TSLA surged 5% pre-market, A-shares low and flying car sectors rose simultaneously📈. What funds are chasing is the sci-fi story combining Tesla and SpaceX, not short-term profit improvement.
Looking further ahead, the Roadster won't be mass-produced until 2028, the Rocket version cannot be driven on roads, contributing limitedly to corporate revenue, more of a concept car to boost valuation. It strengthens the market's imagination of autonomous driving and humanoid robot collaboration, but the stock price's fundamental support still depends on car gross margin, free cash flow, and Q3 earnings report.
Short-term speculation is on the cool concept, mid-term judgment core is still the profit fundamentals, don't mistake product stunts for financial report results, everyone is welcome to share different views.
Today's key observation is TSLA at the 0.94% price level.
$TSLA $SPCX $BTC $ETH $SOL Let me share some of my views on $ZEC.
If ZEC continues to break down instead of rebounding to new highs, then some of my views might be useful for everyone as a reference.
① In my understanding, the old whales holding large amounts of spot don't cash out by directly pushing the price up to sell spot. Instead, they build a large number of short positions in the futures when the price is high. Since the futures pool is larger and deeper than the spot pool, establishing shorts in futures can create more short positions amid significant price fluctuations, which is equivalent to offloading a large amount of spot.
② The spot price directly dominates the futures price, and the futures price can indirectly affect the spot price. The spot leads, and futures follow.
③ Therefore, during the pumping phase, a relatively small amount of capital can push up the spot pool, provided the whales control a certain amount of circulating supply. The whales might also have established some long positions in the futures pool earlier, so the capital lost pushing up spot can be hedged by floating profits in futures.
④ In this phase, there are not only floating profits in spot and futures but also funding fees to collect, so it's like profiting on multiple fronts.
⑤ The second phase is consolidation. During this phase, the price might fall after consolidation or might launch a second wave of rally. At this time, it's necessary to observe the coin's nature and the whales' tactics. Retail investors cannot dominate market prices; only whales, big players, and institutions can. We can refer to the smart money here.
⑥ p1, p2, p3 are the smart money for ZEC on 9.19, 10.17, and 10.18 respectively (second articleFor Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH, this small wave of fluctuations follows a core principle: first admit mistakes and exit, do not catch a falling knife, wait for a volume contraction and stabilization signal before considering a low entry, rather than averaging down during a volume-increasing decline. Currently, Bitcoin has support around $81,000 but the capital flow is relatively cold, and Ethereum's structure is weaker, so operations should be more defensive.
First, determine whether this is a "real dump" or a "fake drop"
After consolidation, the biggest risk is mistaking a false breakout for a true breakout and chasing shorts, or mistaking a real dump for a shakeout and bottom-fishing. Considering the current market:
• Capital flow has not turned strong: BTC and ETH spot ETFs are still experiencing net outflows, BTC market dominance is close to 60%, indicating capital is contracting defensively into Bitcoin, with altcoins and ETH under more pressure.
• Macro suppression: High oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve's pressure to maintain high interest rates is intensifying, which is one of the main drivers of this round of decline.
• Key levels: BTC at $80,000 is an important psychological and support level; breaking below may seek support around $78,000; ETH's key support is in the $2390–2400 range, with the next targets at $2350 or even $2300 if broken effectively.
Specific response actions
1. For those holding positions with high leverage: reduce leverage first, do not stubbornly hold
Dumps after consolidation often involve liquidity hunting, and high-leverage long positions are easily liquidated during spikes. If key support is broken with volume, prioritize reducing positions or stop losses to preserve capital and wait for stabilization. The current Fear & Greed Index is only 53, neutral, not at extreme panic bottom-fishing levels, so no rush to "catch the dip."
2. For those wanting to bottom-fish: wait for "volume contraction and stop of decline" rather than "volume-increasing decline"
Do not bottom-fish on the day of the dump. Observe the performance after breaking key levels: if volume continues to increase and price drops, selling pressure is not yet exhausted; if price consolidates with low volume near support without making new lows, then consider light long positions. BTC holding $80,000 can be lightly bought; if broken, reduce positions; altcoins should only be traded if strong, with strict stop losses.
3. For those wanting to short: do not chase shorts, wait for pullback confirmation of resistance
Chasing shorts immediately after a dump risks buying at a short-term bottom. A safer approach is to wait for price to pull back to previous breakout points (e.g., BTC near $82,000) and face resistance before considering shorts, or enter on the right side after a weak rebound. Weekend liquidity is thin, spike risks are high, and leveraged shorts require caution.
4. Ethereum requires more caution than BTC
ETH moving averages show a bearish alignment, ETFs continue to see outflows, and BlackRock's single-day sale of about $69.68 million ETH reinforces the institutional sell-off narrative. Even if there is a rebound, ETH's elasticity may be weaker than BTC's; prioritize longs on BTC, and if shorting ETH, set stricter stop losses.
What to watch next
• ETF capital flows: whether net outflows end next week is key to judging institutional attitude shifts.
• BTC $80,000 level: holding means continued consolidation; breaking means a broader adjustment.
• Macro data: New home starts on October 20, initial jobless claims on the 22nd, PMI and consumer confidence final values on the 23rd may trigger new volatility.
Currently, the market looks more defensive rather than a full return of risk appetite. The three most practical rules during this post-consolidation dump phase are: do not chase rallies, do not bottom-fish during volume-increasing declines, and do not stubbornly hold positions.$LTC
Litecoin’s investment case is built around longevity, relatively simple payment functionality, and a proof-of-work network that has operated for years. However, surviving multiple market cycles does not automatically create stronger adoption. Payment usage, merchant acceptance, liquidity, and competition from stablecoins all matter. LTC’s challenge is demonstrating why users should choose it for transfers when cheaper or more convenient alternatives are available.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Live trading challenge: turning 4200u principal into 80,000u
Day 40 current: 4420.14u
Today's profit: -268.71u (-5.73%)
Market analysis:
$BTC $ETH
Long-term: The major long-term structure remains unchanged, bullish trend, holding spot base positions without moving.
Short-term: The market weakened again in the evening session, BTC dropped back to around 81200, ETH fell over 1% to 2383. 24h total liquidations across the network reached 360 million, with longs accounting for 280 million, retail long positions were heavily liquidated. OKX long-short ratio is 1.81, retail longs still dominate, but Hyperliquid's giant whale shorts hold a total position of 5.596 billion, outweighing longs at 4.768 billion, with large players leading the shorts.
On the spot side, BTC and ETH have seen continuous net outflows over the past 6-8 hours, funds are temporarily exiting for short-term observation, awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision window.
Trading insight: The biggest taboo in trading is using leverage to chase rallies; rushing in on rebounds and getting liquidated on a single pullback. The overall direction is correct, but short-term volatility can wipe out leveraged positions. For cycles, just hold spot; don't gamble on short-term directions with leverage. Staying alive is more important than anything.
Just a personal opinion, trading is ultimately self-reliance
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 $HYPE and $ZEC seem to have independent market trends; when the overall market grinds, they follow their own paths.
HYPE relies on the protocol buying back with real money every day. The cumulative burn amount has already reached 4.96% of the total supply. No matter how $BTC fluctuates, as long as there are trades on Hyperliquid, fees are generated, and buybacks will not stop.
ZEC’s logic is completely different. The Grayscale ZEC spot ETF has opened institutional capital, and the SEC’s investigation into the Zcash Foundation ended earlier this year, removing the uncertainty hanging over privacy coins.
One relies on business buybacks, the other on institutional entry plus short squeeze.
The driving forces are on a completely different level from BTC and ETH, so they can still follow their own paths.
But what’s independent is the driver, not the risk. If the overall market really crashes hard and liquidity tightens, those who need to be squeezed out still will be.
#HYPE ZEC independent market trend本来想关手机睡觉，但看了眼合约数据，还是得给兄弟们提个醒：今晚这阴跌，大概率又要埋一批死扛的多头
直接看底牌，别被这慢刀子割肉骗了：先看 $BTC ，现价81065，最低摸到80754。多空比 1.81，表面看着还行，但重心一直在往下移。8万整数关口现在是最后的遮羞布，一旦跌破，下面就是连环清算的深渊
重灾区其实是$ETH 和SOL，二饼现价2376，跌了两个多点，多空比居然顶到了 2.37，持仓量根本没怎么降，说明散户多头还在硬扛，压根没认输。这种钝刀子割肉的局，越扛越难受
再看 $SOL ，现价102，最低已经探到101.15了，100大关岌岌可危。多空比同样是 2.40，大家全挤在100上方等奇迹。但只要稍微来根阴线砸穿100，这批人就是连环踩踏的燃料
我的看法很简单：今晚绝不抄底。多头没洗干净之前，任何反抽都是诱多。马上就变盘了，与其半夜盯着盘面担惊受怕，不如直接关机睡觉保平安。保住子弹，等下周美股开盘再看
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 【ETH ETF Outflows Surpass BTC: BlackRock Alone Withdraws $299 Million】
The key focus this week is not ETH price, but the ETF outflow rankings where it has left BTC behind. As of the week ending October 16, ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $320 million, exceeding BTC ETFs' $228 million. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA alone contributed $299 million, accounting for 93% of ETH's total outflows.
What happened? Institutional funds are retreating from Ethereum ETFs with extremely high concentration, almost entirely focused on a single BlackRock product.
Why is this noteworthy? This is not a uniform "decline in risk appetite," but a concentrated redemption targeting the largest ETH ETF channel. Meanwhile, ETH staking rate has risen to 36.1%, at the 98.6th historical percentile, and exchange balances remain low. On one side, ETFs are selling; on the other, on-chain supply is locking up.
Which observation is currently more supported? The stalemate of "institutional channel bleeding and on-chain supply tightening" is more supported than a one-sided narrative. Next, watch two things: whether BlackRock ETHA outflows narrow, and whether staking lock-up can truly hedge the selling pressure from the ETF side. If BlackRock stops bleeding, from which capital will ETH's story begin to rewrite? $ETH 【BTC Capital Layering This Week: ETF Outflows, Whales Increasing Holdings】
The most noteworthy aspect of BTC this week is not the price, but the "layering" of capital. In the first week of October, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $678.9 million, a significant weakening compared to the previous week's net inflow of $241.1 million. However, during the same period, the total holdings of whales increased from about 2.94 million BTC in late August to nearly 3 million BTC, a net increase of about 60,000 BTC, reaching a new high for the year.
What has changed? The ETF channel is flowing out, while large on-chain addresses are accumulating. The proportion of new whales in the total whale market value has risen from about 18% at the beginning of the year to 33%, with an overall cost basis of approximately $77,000.
Why is this worth attention? This divergence indicates that the bottoming around 81,000 is not a consensus in a single direction, but rather retail and institutions retreating on the ETF side while large funds are repositioning on-chain. The positive funding rate of 0.0035% also shows that leveraged longs are still willing to pay to hold positions.
Which observation is currently more supported? The "bottom turnover" scenario is more supported than a "trend reversal." Whales accelerated their accumulation only after the price rebound, and there has been a slight pullback near recent peaks.
Key points to watch next: whether ETF net outflows narrow, and whether whale accumulation can sustain above 80,000. If the new whale cost line at 77,000 is broken, the narrative will need to change. $BTC 兄弟们，真是十年河东，十年河西！一个月前我做空$ZEC 爆仓被拉得哭爹喊娘，现在入手空ZEC，终于轮到空头吃口肉了！
先看走势。 ZEC从1700上方跌下来后，现在反弹连前高都摸不到，走势明显偏弱。我空单开仓均价1159，现价1134，一路往下磨。上方1288是强阻力，冲不过去就是继续往下。
再看利空消息。 F2Pool联创王纯直接开喷，说ZEC这波暴涨纯粹是“故事型代币”，靠交易所上币和逼空推动，基本面根本没改善。他点出ZEC前四年20%区块奖励流向创始团队，隐私池还爆出过存在四年的安全漏洞。
链上消息更值得警惕。 黑客正利用ZEC转移赃款，Bitget被盗资金之后，Cryptobills Ledger事件和Triple-A黑客攻击的资金也开始流入ZEC隐私池。这玩意儿成了洗钱工具，机构看了会怎么想？
技术面看， 1134是短期支撑，守不住下一目标就是1100整数关口。上方1200是强阻力，冲不过去就是继续往下砸。
兄弟们，空单继续拿住，别被小反弹吓跑。跟上！#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
$BTC $ETH Will $BTC continue to probe lower? Does ETH really have a chance now?
On October 18, BTC fluctuated around the $81,000 range. The buying support at the $80,000 level is still solid, but the upper resistance at $81,818, which is the lower edge of the triangle, has become a pressure point. If the price cannot hold above it, there is still a risk of a pullback. ETH's trend is weaker, currently around $2,408, down 0.88% in 24 hours, with a funding rate of -0.70%, and bearish sentiment is strong in the market.
Many are discussing opportunities for ETH, but there is currently a lack of institutional capital support. From October 12 to 16, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $320 million, even exceeding the $228 million outflow of the BTC ETF. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is only 0.0295, still far from the above 0.058 level seen during capital rotation.
In summary: $BTC is in a defensible position with support, while ETH is overall weak. There is solid buying near $80,000 supporting BTC, and most of ETH's rebounds are just short-term elasticity caused by short-covering, not a shift of institutional capital entering the market. To see a real opportunity for ETH, ETF capital inflows and a stable, rising ETH/BTC ratio are needed. Neither condition is met currently, so it is too early to talk about opportunities for ETH before BTC holds $80,000. $ETH $SOL #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
CoreWeave dropped about 25% in a week; I’m not catching the falling knife amid AI bond panic.
CRWV fell from 82.08 on 10/9 to 61.39 on 10/16, about a 25% drop.
On Friday alone, it dropped another 12%; meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for the 8th consecutive day, the longest streak since 2008.
The bond side is even scarier: reports say junk bond yields have hit about 15%–16%, as the market is repricing AI infrastructure financing.
Jensen Huang said "this too shall pass," but stock prices and the bond market are still voting with their feet.
I think: this isn’t just a single stock story, it’s the entire AI leverage chain getting hurt.
I’m observing, not chasing, and definitely not bottom-fishing at the height of panic.
If it holds: after Meta’s earnings next week, if CRWV can recover to 70 and bond yields stop rising, I’ll reconsider going long.
If it fails: if it breaks 55 again or bond conditions worsen, I’ll downgrade to watch mode.
What do you think — should we wait for Meta’s earnings to verify demand first, or watch if CRWV bond yields turn around first?
$CRWV $NVDA $META
#USStocks #AI#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The cause of the massive bloodbath in the crypto circle has been found! It's not a black swan, but these three knives
On October 18, $BTC was reported near $81,500, down 0.71% in 24 hours; ETH fell below $2,430, down 0.73%. In the past 24 hours, about $288 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with long position liquidations totaling $227 million, accounting for nearly 80%. ETH single-coin liquidations reached $58.2 million, far exceeding BTC's $25.38 million. This is not a single negative factor, but three forces tightening simultaneously.
The first knife: inflation. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with core CPI also exceeding expectations. The Federal Reserve's expectation to maintain tightening was reinforced, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.
The second knife: AI perpetual contracts flash crashed at midnight. Tread.fi CEO revealed that a roughly $2 million $SNDK long position liquidation on Binance triggered a chain liquidation in a thin order book. The AI concept perpetual contracts dropped as much as 9%, with leveraged longs being concentratedly liquidated.
The third knife: liquidity vacuum. Traditional markets were closed over the weekend, while on-chain perpetual contracts traded 24/7 with extremely thin order books. Even a relatively small sell order could break key levels, triggering automatic liquidation cascades.
With all three knives falling simultaneously, long positions bore the main cost. Macro factors set the base tone, the AI flash crash was the fuse, and the liquidity vacuum was the amplifier. What really needs attention is not "whether it will fall further," but whether $ETH's 2400 and BTC's 80,000 levels can be supported by spot buying.
Let's discuss in the comments: which of these three knives do you think is the most lethal? Trader Iron Head
BTC: There is a cluster of short liquidations above 82,300–82,500 (about 47 million, less than 0.5% away); below, 81,600 and 80,600 act as long magnets. Within a 3% range, short fuel is about 1.6 times that of longs, so the probability of first sweeping the top then falling back is not low.
Trading advice
BTC: Light short positions if it fails to hold 82,400–82,800. Stop loss above 83,300. Targets first at 81,000, then 80,600.
ETH: Light short positions at 2,450–2,480. Stop loss at 2,520. Targets at 2,370, extending to 2,300–2,320.
82,300 and 80,600 are the two points most likely to be swept back and forth in the next couple of days. There are many false breakouts; wait for a wick close before entering, do not pre-place chase orders.
$BTC $ETH$BTC has tested the $81,000 support level three times since October, while $ETH has repeatedly tested $2,350 in sync — this is not ordinary volatility, but a war of attrition. The truly cautionary signals lie in the details: the on-chain loss scale corresponding to the three dips is decreasing, indicating that floating positions are being gradually squeezed out rather than panic sold. However, buying pressure is also ebbing. The macro environment is the direct driver behind this repeated testing. After the US September CPI exceeded expectations, the market's pricing of the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 53.7%, US Treasury yields approached a 24-year high, and risk assets were broadly suppressed. The key point is that prices are repeatedly tested in the same area, and the defensive strength is being diluted rather than strengthened. Glassnode data reveals structural cracks: new buying liquidity below $80,000 is shrinking. Once this range is effectively broken, prices may quickly slide toward the "true market average price" area around $78,000 — which is the real cost concentration zone. For $ETH, $2,350 is the short-term boundary between bulls and bears; holding this level maintains the range-bound battle, but a volume-driven break below will immediately expose the $2,323 low. The common feature of both markets is that repeated testing of key levels is exhausting defensive strength, and directional choices often occur at moments of weakest liquidity. This is not a prediction but a condition given by the structure. A quotable judgment: the real risk is not the third test itself, but that the buying pressure during the third test is thinner than the previous two. $BTC $DNA 不能碰。。链上前十拿了95%。。玩毛线瞬间万劫不复$KORU added two positive factors over the weekend. Personally, I still lean bearish, but I don't think it will keep dropping straight down.
The semiconductor sector has been falling these days. The issue is no longer just about chip sales performance, but the market starting to worry whether the huge investment in AI can actually be recouped. Coupled with expensive financing, high oil prices, and Chinese memory manufacturers catching up faster and faster, capital has been continuously withdrawing.
However, two positive news came out on Sunday: one is that South Korea said semiconductor market conditions might remain strong until 2027; the other is news about the next-generation HBM from Samsung, TSMC, and Nvidia. These two pieces of news only started trading in Korea on Monday, so I think there’s a good chance of an initial rally on Monday.
Monday’s rebound might reach 10.9–11.6 → if Hynix and foreign capital don’t follow, it could drop back to 9.6–10.2 → then rebound once more → by Wednesday, it might lean towards 8.8–9.6.
I’m not expecting KORU to crash immediately; rather, I’m more inclined to see a rebound first, then continued weakness. The key on Monday is to watch one thing: whether Samsung and Hynix rise together, and whether foreign capital really starts buying again. If only Samsung rises due to the positive news but Hynix remains weak, I will still treat the rebound as a temporary correction before further decline.
On Wednesday, we also need to watch South Korea’s chip exports and Nvidia’s GTC. If these two provide very strong positive signals and the market is truly willing to buy this time, then my bearish view might be wrong, and KORU could have a chance to recover directly to around 12.3 or even 13.Tron Massive Burn Continues: Although the Data is True, Why Do Netizens Insist That Justin Sun is "Brewing an Opportunity to Cut Leeks"? In the previous article, we dissected the underlying logic and compliance concerns behind the Tron ecosystem's over $46 million burn. After the article was published, it sparked extensive community discussion. Among the most piercing and representative voices were netizens who expressed that Justin Sun's high-profile burn is nothing more than "brewing a new round of cutting leeks." This suspicion is not baseless. In the crypto world, the grander the story, the easier it is to mask the harsh realities underneath. When we step away from the halo of data and re-examine this "burn feast" from the perspective of retail investors, you will find that netizens' concerns have a very realistic foundation. First, who is really paying for the bullets used in the buyback and burn? On the surface, the buyback funds for tokens like JST and BTT come from the protocol's real business revenue, which sounds perfect. But the question is, does the price increase expectation brought by token burns match the fundamentals? If the burn is merely to create a deflation narrative to attract retail investors to enter and pump the price, while the project team or early whales take the opportunity to sell high on the secondary market, then this burn becomes a perfect "market cap management" tool. Retail investors buy tokens with real money, the project team uses protocol revenue to buy back and burn a small amount of tokens to create news, and in the end, retail investors buy at the peak. Isn't this another form of harvesting? Second, is the high TRX transaction fee a disguised way of bleeding users? As mentioned before, each USDT transfer deducts nearly 1.ETH had $320 million withdrawn by ETFs this week, even more aggressively than BTC, so I’m holding off for now.
Here’s what I saw: Farside, from 10/12 to 10/16, U.S. crypto ETFs had a combined net outflow of about $611 million.
ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $320.1 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone accounting for about $299 million.
During the same period, BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $228.4 million—institutions are more averse to ETH this week.
Currently, ETH is hovering around 2375, with thin volume over the weekend, price is quiet but the structure is speaking.
My take: this isn’t "ETH is dead," it’s just that capital channels are still reducing positions.
Don’t mistake weekend sideways trading for a confirmed bottom; observe without chasing, and definitely don’t catch a falling knife.
Watch for a firm hold: if there are net inflows for 2 consecutive ETF trading days and ETH holds above 2500, I’ll consider turning bullish again.
Invalidation: if it breaks below 2300 again and ETFs continue large outflows, downgrade the outlook immediately.
What do you think—should we first watch for ETH capital inflows next week, or wait to see if BTC holds 80,000?
$ETH $BTC $ETHA
#Cryptocurrency #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 Where is Bitcoin headed next? First, look at this long-short liquidation map
Brothers, $BTC is currently stuck grinding nervously in the 81k–82k range, but the derivatives data actually makes the script very clear.
1. Liquidation intensity has "thinned" on both sides. Long liquidation intensity below: 1.1 billion yesterday, about 840 million now; short liquidation intensity above: 1.6 billion yesterday, about 810 million now. Both sides have thinned and are almost equal. What does this mean? Both longs and shorts are reducing positions; no one dares to hold on stubbornly, everyone is waiting for a direction.
2. The biggest pain points for longs and shorts. The shorts above suffer most at 82,418, only 0.81% away from the current price; the longs below suffer most at 80,753, 1.22% away from the current price. Note, the current price is closer to the short side; it only takes 0.81% to trigger short liquidations upward, which is closer than the 1.22% needed to trigger long liquidations downward. In the short term, if there is a spike, the shorts above are actually more vulnerable.
3. My judgment: the 81,000 to 82,000 range has seen longs and shorts engaged in close combat for two days, forming a pivot.
This grinding won't last forever; eventually, one side has to concede. In terms of timing, I bet the outcome will be decided next week.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #AI or push GDP to 44 trillion, can investments break even? Impact on $BTC and $ETH?
"AI pushing GDP to 44 trillion" is a long-term vision of Anthropic's co-founder, but currently, the pressure to break even on AI investments is significant. Gartner estimates that by 2030, AI data centers need to generate a cumulative revenue of $8.5 trillion to achieve a 12% return, while the actual AI revenue ceiling is only $3.6 trillion, leaving a gap of nearly $5 trillion, with over $3.5 trillion in assets facing impairment risk.
For BTC and ETH, the core transmission chain is AI infrastructure financing driving up long-term interest rates. Tech giants are issuing large-scale bonds for data centers, which has already pushed up U.S. Treasury yields; the 10-year real yield is about 2.92%, squeezing the risk premium of cash-flow-free assets like Bitcoin. In the short term, if an AI credit event erupts, BTC and ETH are more likely to be sold off along with tech stocks rather than acting as safe-haven assets. The medium term depends on whether policy releases rescue liquidity after the AI investment cycle deteriorates—some bulls see this as a potential catalyst for crypto assets, but this path has yet to materialize. The variable more critical to coin prices is credit conditions and liquidity expectations, not the GDP total figure itself. BTC continues to plunge, is it still ETH's opportunity?
On October 18, BTC struggled repeatedly around $81,000. Although the buying support at the $80,000 level is strong, the lower boundary of the triangle at $81,818 has turned into resistance. If it can't break above, there is still a risk of a pullback. ETH is weaker, trading around $2,408, down 0.88% in 24 hours, with a funding rate of -0.70% indicating bearish market sentiment.
The so-called "ETH opportunity" currently lacks institutional capital support. From October 12 to 16, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $320 million, more severe than BTC ETF's $228 million. The ETH/BTC ratio is only 0.0295, far from the level above 0.058 seen during accelerated capital rotation.
Conclusion: $BTC is "holding," ETH is "weak." BTC has real buying support near $80,000, while ETH's rebound is more due to short-covering and short-term elasticity, not a capital shift. ETH's real opportunity requires seeing ETF capital inflows and stabilization and rise in the ETH/BTC ratio, neither of which are currently met. It is premature to talk about ETH's "opportunity" before BTC stabilizes at $80,000.Tesla opened 1.85% higher on October 16, closed down 2.13%, completing a 5.8% intraday swing. This was the second day after the Roadster launch event.
On October 15, Tesla unveiled the new generation Roadster at SpaceX's Texas test site, demonstrating a compressed air thruster for short-distance flight and landing.
Elon Musk said it was jointly developed by Tesla and SpaceX, production planned for 2028, price not announced.
This car was first shown in 2017, originally planned for production in 2020, but has been delayed continuously since.
On October 18, he added: Optimus and Cybercab will account for the vast majority of Tesla's value.
The stock price speaks first. After opening 1.85% higher on October 16, it closed down 2.13%, with 61.85 million shares traded, 2.3 times the previous day.
I think the launch event is not a catalyst, but a reminder.
Each time it opens, the market is reminded to wait longer: Roadster has been awaited from 2017 to 2028, and Optimus doesn't even have a production date.
The further the story is pushed back, the higher the discount rate. This is not bearish on the product, but bearish on pricing 2028 products with 2026 stock prices.
I am not chasing it. Invalidating condition: reclaiming 382.70 means the market reaccepts this narrative; breaking below 349.33 (October 16 low) means the story starts to be discounted.
Which side are you betting on: is the launch event a buying opportunity or a reminder?
$TSLA
#TeslaRoadster🛢️ SUNDAY'S MARKET SPLIT SCREEN
Brent closed Friday at $109.86—its highest since May 19.
Sunday's reaction:
🇸🇦 Saudi stocks: +0.8%
🇶🇦 Qatar: −2.0%
🇪🇬 Egypt: −2.6%
One regional crisis. Three different market reactions.
For crypto traders, the next risk may come from outside crypto: expensive energy, inflation expectations and interest rates.
When global markets reopen, watch oil, bond yields and the dollar.
#Crypto #Macro$BTC tests key support level again: Is this a bear trap or the start of a new downtrend? BTC has been tugging back and forth around $81,000, with three retests of the same area on October 9, 12, and 15. The $80,000 round number was not broken even during the weekend's downward spike. Setting "bear trap" and "downtrend" as opposing options is itself a false dilemma. The market never chooses between two options; it is completing an action: the redistribution of chips. First, let's look at the quality of the support. The support strength in the $80,000 to $81,000 range is real. Around $81,000 corresponds to above the EMA60, technically forming a support resonance. On-chain data provides more critical evidence: the realized loss scale corresponding to the three dips shows a decreasing trend. The loss on October 12 was less than on October 9; although it expanded on October 15, it was still below the peak on October 9. The loss scale is converging, indicating that the marginal force of panic selling is weakening, not strengthening. The current market is closer to a gradual clearing of swing chips rather than full panic. Next, let's see where the pressure comes from. The pressure is not from within the crypto circle but from the bond market. The 5-year US Treasury yield touched a 19-year high near 5.15%, far above the Fed's policy range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets has been pushed up, which is the core reason BTC is pushed back every time it tries to rally. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of about $146 million from October 12 to 15, and institutional demand has not yet shown significant improvement. The macro headwinds and tech#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Hot take: if AI really pushes US GDP to $44T by 2030 #AICouldLiftUSGDPTo44T the debasement trade DIES. Exploding tax receipts shrink deficits, real rates stay high, and the money-printer bid under $BTC evaporates. Everyone is long crypto for the wrong reason — AI abundance is disinflationary.
My invalidation: deficits keep ripping and $80K holds. Is AI the end of the debasement trade or its fuel?#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus The essence of this $SAND rebound is the resonance of "good news overextension" and "black swan panic."
The positive effects of Studio's public beta and warning removal have been fully absorbed, with the price retreating over 35% from the peak. The LayerZero vulnerability incident triggered a crisis of confidence and selling pressure. On the macro side, the persistently high yields on U.S. Treasury bonds continue to suppress altcoin risk appetite. On the derivatives side, crowded shorts (negative funding rates) require caution against sudden spikes.
Currently, 0.060 is the last line of defense between bulls and bears. Right-side trading should wait for daily stabilization or a renewed volume-driven break back above the 0.065 resistance zone; it is not advisable to bottom-fish during the vulnerability incident's development. $BTC $ETH #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight
Three key observations on advertising after Q3 earnings release
• ① Proportion of ad-supported plans in new subscribers: >62% = strong new user acquisition but greater ARM pressure; <55% = healthier user structure but weaker new user acquisition
• ② Year-over-year change in ARM: subtract "price increase benefits" from "ad plan dilution" to see if ad revenue is offsetting; if ARM can hold steady at +4-5%, it's above expectations
• ③ Whether management has raised the full-year $3 billion ad revenue guidance (currently the market sees the probability as medium to low). #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Two major market divergences on Q3 advertising business
1) Optimists: Advertising has already proven it "can retain price-sensitive users"; with the increase in live sports ads (NFL, etc.) and the maturation of programmatic advertising, advertising revenue is expected to exceed 5 billion by 2027. ARM dilution will gradually be caught up by advertising monetization, becoming Netflix's second growth curve.
2) Cautious: The current speed of monetization per advertising user is not fast enough; the higher the proportion of advertising users, the harder it is for ARM to return to the high growth rate of earlier years in the short term; if the pace of price increases slows, the incremental advertising revenue will hardly fully cover the gap, and revenue growth may continue to decline from the past 15-18% to the 11-13% range (which is exactly one reason behind the Q3 guidance of 11.7% growth).$OKB perpetual contract 20x short position opened at 116.59, mark price 112.39, floating profit 72.04%. The market shows a bearish suppression trend.
Fundamental background: The total supply of OKB has been permanently locked at 21 million tokens, with no further unlocking pressure. However, previous positive factors (burning, MiCA compliance, X Layer narrative) have been fully priced in. Recently, macroeconomic pressure and the Bitget hacking incident causing exchange trust crisis have impacted OKB, which has followed the market correction. The X Layer ecosystem adoption (TVL and daily active users) has not yet reached a level to support valuation, with weak demand. Currently, it is in a weak correction phase after the "good news is fully priced in" stage.
Technical and capital aspects: The price dropped from the opening price of 116.59 to 112.39, breaking below the short-term moving average. MACD indicates short-term bearish momentum. The 110-112 range is a key support; if broken, it may test the previous low at 108. The 120-125 range above is a strong resistance and lock-in zone. Market liquidity is thin, and large orders can easily trigger instant volatility.
The current trend is weak due to the retreat of positive factors and macro pressure. With 20x leverage, the floating profit is already substantial. OKB, as a platform token, has high volatility, and profits can be quickly lost. It is recommended to take profits in large, staggered batches to lock in gains, and set trailing stop losses on remaining positions to protect against liquidity spikes. $BTC $ETH #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises Tesla 2026 Q3 Bearish Report
Q3 deliveries of 486,500 units exceeded expectations but declined 2.1% year-over-year and only increased 1.3% quarter-over-quarter. The outperformance mainly relied on the Model 3 facelift and end-of-quarter discounts as short-term impulses, not a structural improvement in demand. Model 3/Y accounted for 98.3% of deliveries, with product concentration reaching a dangerous level.
Profit quality is the core crack. Market expectations for Q3 net profit are only $923 million, a sharp 32.8% year-over-year drop; signs appeared in Q2: revenue grew 25.5%, but operating profit fell 56.9%, with AI R&D and equity incentives consuming incremental income. Deliveries rose, profits collapsed, and scale effects are reversing into cost leverage.
FSD option value continues to decay. China's FSD approval promised for "Q3" has essentially fallen through, with no meaningful revenue expected in Q3, possibly not until 2027 at the earliest; European approval is also delayed, unable to buffer pressure on automotive gross margins. Cybertruck further confirms pipeline gaps: other models delivered only 8,295 units in Q3, a 48% year-over-year plunge, annualized about 30,000 units, only 13% of the original target.
The current approximately 335x TTM P/E ratio is built on unproven narratives of Robotaxi and humanoid robots. As automotive profits collapse, energy storage margins normalize, and FSD deferrals lengthen, valuation downward re-rating faces minimal resistance.
Downside risks: regulatory breakthroughs for Robotaxi, unexpected FSD approval in China. But the Q3 window is insufficient to offset the worsening profit slope.
#Tesla deliveries exceed expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus 🌡️ September CPI year-over-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), month-over-month 0.6%. Core CPI year-over-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%), last month was 2.4%, month-over-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%).
⛽ Gasoline month-over-month +9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase, year-over-year +34.2%. Energy index year-over-year +20.4%.
🏠 Housing month-over-month +0.4%, year-over-year 3.2%; airfares month-over-month +1.2%; food month-over-month flat.
🧮 Core services excluding housing month-over-month: July 0.35%, August 0.41%, September 0.34% (Macrobond).
💵 After the data release, the US dollar index briefly rose about 0.6%, BTC declined.
Gasoline pushed up the overall numbers, but core data also exceeded expectations, with housing and airfares rising as well. One month of data does not indicate a trend, and I might be wrong. BTC declined after the CPI release; I’m not sure if this data has already been fully priced in.
📍 BTC is currently around $81,600:
$82,300: intense liquidation level
$80,000: level tested on October 15
Do you think the Federal Reserve will pay more attention to the overall 3.7% figure or the 2.6% core figure?
$BTC $ETH #USCPIAndPPITopForecasts #CanBTCHold80K Returning to the #Bitcoin market, the previous analysis of ETF and crypto market data has already reached a conclusion: Friday's capital flow does not support a strong rebound.
On the chart, effective support was found near 80,000 on the hourly level, followed by a strong rebound, but the rebound did not break through the 4-hour resistance level, namely the 4-hour MA200-MA120.
In other words, if the rebound fails to break the resistance, the price may continue to oscillate between 80,000 and 83,000, and if the price tests the 80,000 support multiple times, it will continuously consume the support buy orders.
The so-called oscillation range is the process where the price continuously absorbs selling pressure at the top of the range and buying support at the bottom. Whether it can break through depends on the battle between buyers and sellers within the range. Since Friday's ETF data is not optimistic, I believe that if the support is tested multiple times and macro pressures still exist, the possibility of a breakdown is actually greater.
Conversely, if the price breaks through the resistance and holds, and short-term selling pressure is exhausted, then a continued rebound to around 84,000 or even higher can be expected! #US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? $SOL today ≈104 USD, 24h slight drop 0.1%–1.7%, the decline has narrowed among major coins, representing a narrow consolidation following the overall market, not an independent trend.
Capital flow is polarized: Spot ETF turned negative cumulatively in October, with a single-day net outflow of 12.668 million and a monthly net outflow of 24.8 million, indicating institutional withdrawal; however, the perpetual funding rate annualized has reached -7%, one of the few major coins turning negative—leveraged longs are basically cleared, reducing the space for further liquidation.
Technical: 4-hour moving averages show a bearish alignment, EMA50 pressing at 114; support at 100 (round number + weekly 50MA resonance), below that 97.4; resistance at 103.7–104.4, then 107.
News: Alpenglow activated on October 21 at 22:50, finality reduced from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, but the positive effect was priced in early, and removing voting from on-chain will cause the on-chain TPS to "shrink" by about 70%, do not misinterpret this as a chain crash. Macro CPI at 3.7% exceeded expectations, 10Y yield at 5.07%, BTC market dominance rose to 59.3%, altcoins are being drained.
Conclusion: First watch if BTC can hold 80,000; if 100 holds, maintain consolidation, if broken open 97–95.
$BTC $ETH #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises Under the surgical light, the most dangerous thing is never the gushing bleeding, but the myocardium silently and quietly losing blood.
On October 15, MSCI implemented new rules targeting non-operating companies, which is equivalent to a preoperative assessment of Strategy and Metaplanet. The conclusion is: these two hearts have structural defects and could be removed from the extracorporeal circulation at any time. Strategy raised objections on October 16, arguing that the accounting basis is unclear, which is like the patient's family questioning the diagnostic criteria, but angiography will not stop showing stenosis just because you don't accept it. JPMorgan estimates that if Strategy is removed, about $2.8 billion in passive funds will be forced to exit. This money is not a liquidity leak but an acute hemorrhage. Strategy argues that index funds only hold about 3.1%, which is a collateral circulation that can still compensate, but compensation does not mean recovery.
The real lesion to watch is not the 3.1% figure, but the three coronary arteries of valuation supply, financing channels, and Bitcoin purchases. Once passive selling is triggered, valuation perfusion pressure drops, financing windows shrink, and eventually even the terminal blood vessel of BTC purchasing power will suffer from insufficient perfusion. The final list on November 11 is the surgical consent form, and after the close on November 30 is the time point of vascular occlusion. Metaplanet has not yet formally responded, which is equivalent to the intraoperative informed consent form still having an empty signature line.
Market linkage is not a complication but the pressure transmission of the same circulatory system. The rules read the accounting caliber, like reading the ejection fraction on an echocardiogram, but what really determines life or death is whether the cash flow can jump back on its own before the incision is closed.
The myocardial ischemic lesion has already formed, waiting for the family to sign. #strategyopposesmsciThis week, crypto financing reached $58.2 million, with the largest single amount of $30 million coming from the Sui Foundation.
11 projects shared $58.2 million, with DATA Network (formerly Story Protocol) taking $30 million, accounting for 51.5%.
The remaining $28.2 million was divided among 10 projects, averaging $2.82 million each.
The money comes from this chain because DATA is moving from its own chain to Sui, with Walrus as the default storage layer.
The foundation is paying for the migration itself.
I think this is not a market recovery in financing, but a change in financing structure.
Only $28.2 million remains market-driven for the week, split among ten projects. The foundation's $30 million requires no valuation discussion or roadshow.
For projects, this is the cheapest money; for the ecosystem, it is the most expensive money—it buys migration, not retention.
SUI closed at 0.9573, down 26.0% from 1.2939 on September 27. It is only 0.4% above the failure threshold.
The market did not pay for this $30 million.
I am not chasing. I will watch two things: whether DATA’s real storage and calls on Sui increase after migration; and whether the foundation will provide another subsidy.
If a second subsidy is provided, this subsidy-for-migration model is validated; if DATA grows organically, that judgment is void.
Failure condition: SUI falls below 0.9531 (October 17 low) and breaks down; only a rebound to 1.13 would mean market acceptance.
Which side are you betting on: subsidy fostering real demand, or cooling off after migration?
$SUI
#SuiEcosystem The first full-building load test after the main structure topping out is the real moment that decides whether it can stand — on the evening of October 20th, that supertall named SpaceX must deliver its first complete completion verification report since going public.
I never look at renderings when making plans. Starlink is the core tube already poured in place; whether the concrete grade is sufficient and the reinforcement ratio is solid, the cash flow is like the reading on a rebound hammer—the hardness that bounces back when pressed doesn’t lie. The orbital resources of the satellite network are its shear walls; once formed, latecomers won’t even have a place to insert rebar. Starship is that large-span cantilever; it looks magnificent on paper, but cantilever structures fear two things most: construction periods being indefinitely extended and budgets continuously destabilizing in the wind. It hasn’t been stripped of formwork yet, so only on that day will we know if the formwork contains dense self-compacting concrete or honeycombed rough surfaces. No matter how beautiful the cantilever truss is, it relies on the core tube to provide reaction force.
Profitability is the foundation. Among all the ways skyscrapers fail, settlement is the quietest — no loud noises, just curtain wall glass cracking piece by piece. Technology can create any shape, but commercial conversion rates determine how thick the bearing layer beneath the building really is; if the bearing capacity is insufficient, a high floor area ratio is just a number on paper.
Now look at that US stock token. It’s not an independent building; it’s an attached structure hanging on the main building by a steel corridor. The corridor has no independent foundation; its seismic rating and inter-story deformation capacity are entirely determined by the stiffness of the parent structure, with zero autonomy. When the main building sways in the wind, the corridor shakes first; when the main building settles, the expansion joints crack first. The so-called market linkage is essentially the stress transfer path — the acceleration at the top of the main building is amplified step by step and finally crashes onto the corridor’s node plates. Corridor holders always think they bought a house, but actually bought a tie rod, and one without fireproof coating.
What’s more interesting is the timing of acceptance. This quarterly report must answer three structural questions simultaneously: can the formed parts continue to generate rent, how much rebar still needs to be burned in the unformed parts, and whether the inter-story drift angle of the whole building under wind load exceeds limits. If any one of these three data points fails, the main building might still hold up due to redundancy, but the corridor will crack first.
True veterans do only one thing on the day of completion acceptance: knock. Knock on load-bearing walls and listen for hollow sounds. Where the sound is muffled, it’s hollow inside — and hollowness is a construction joint that can never be repaired. #SpaceXQ3Earnings $ETH market has entered an adjustment phase, currently focusing on the asset's resistance to decline 🛡️
In this round of correction, my observation focus has shifted from who has stronger explosive power to who has smaller retracement.
$BTC weekly decline is about 2.9%, basically sideways in the past month. Although the upward performance is not outstanding, the defensive resilience is commendable 👍. I will continue to pay close attention, but it is important to distinguish: resistance to decline does not equal confirmation of a new upward trend; the overall rhythm is still more sideways.
$ETH fell 4.8% in a week, 6.6% in the past month, short-term market is weak 😐. Being optimistic about long-term value does not mean it is suitable to enter now. I will reduce operation frequency and avoid simply betting on catching up; the heavier the position held, the greater the risk.
$SOL weekly decline is 7.3%, current price $103.7. Approaching the hundred-dollar mark does not mean there is an immediate opportunity. If participating in the recovery market, strictly allocate positions according to rebound logic; do not buy after weakening and forcibly convert to long-term holding 🙂.
$RE weekly decline is 11.5%, monthly decline 12.6%, the weak pattern has not changed 📉. It can be continuously tracked and studied, but position control in trading must be strict; lower price does not mean more opportunities.
On the news front, Deutsche Bank plans to custody BTC and ETH, combined with institutional capital outflows, reflecting that the digital asset market is accelerating institutional acceptance on one side while funds remain cautious 🔍. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high $BTC $SOL 十月十六日那张气压图上，同一个时刻画出了两个中心：一个是白宫签下豁免令后形成的“暖高压”，另一个是黑海沿岸炼油厂升起的火光形成的“热对流”。两股气团迎头相撞，谁也没法立刻吞掉谁。
豁免清单只撤了几项，《格雷厄姆法案》下的高额关税也松了几格，但其余制裁纹丝不动——这就像冷锋只推过了半个省份，前线的雨带仍然悬在头顶。美俄柴油合同在纸上已经签成，可油轮还在等交付窗口，等一个不被无人机打断的窗口。
柴油是这轮天气过程里真正的低涡。国际能源署的判断很硬：缺柴油不是三五天的阵雨，是一场可能拖到二〇二七年的长期少雨，土壤墒情已经干裂。任何一次对这个低涡的利好修正，都会被资金立刻放大成降水信号。
但降水云系能不能落到地面，得看三个条件同时成立。
第一，炼油能力。乌克兰对俄炼厂的打击属于局地强对流——单体小、生命史短，但垂直到顶，落点全凭探空。产量损失目前无法定量，我们的观测站太少，回波图上有明显的空洞。在量化数据补全之前，任何关于供应恢复的推断都只是外推。
第二，运输成本。这是近地面摩擦层，所有自上而下的气流到这一层都会被削弱。船期保险、绕行、港口排队，都会把“油价下行”这道锋面提前磨掉一半动能。
第三，政治噪声。泽连斯基的反对表态，是一股持续输送水汽的偏南急流，随时可能让已经减弱的系统重新组织起来。特朗普说油价可能很快回落，那更像人工播云——喊话能改变预期，但改变不了大气本身的能量平衡。
放到联动层面看，$xHOOD 这类标的的角色，相当于一只探空气球。它不制造风暴，但它最先感知到风向的切变。制裁局部放松，意味着风险偏好这一层能见度略微抬升；柴油短缺，又意味着通胀侧的低层逆温依然压着。气球升上去，会在某个高度撞上明显的风切层——方向突变、速度陡增，表现为情绪的剧烈来回。
真正需要盯的不是“豁免”这两个字，而是三组实况：俄罗斯炼厂的实际加工量、柴油裂解价差的斜率、运保费率的走向。这三组数据决定了这次过程是“锋面过境”，还是“只飘一阵雨”。
集合预报里，成员分歧依然很大。有的成员给出一路放晴，有的成员在第四十八小时就重新生成气旋。分歧度没有收敛之前，任何定论都属于越过实况外推。
能见度不足两百米，跑道灯全开，塔台不放行。 #usrussiasanctionswaiver$SPCX Why did it drop 10% in a week
Five reasons:
1. Overall valuation cut in the AI sector
2. Concerns about dilution from Apollo-led $40 billion financing in early October to purchase Nvidia chips
3. FAA environmental assessment on Starship expansion
4. Competition and geopolitical rivalry
EU antitrust, plans to approve the 'Project Bromo' joint project, then Starlink service adjustments in the Eastern European conflict
5. Internal sell-off 【Saylor is drawing orange again, is there really a big $BTC order this time?】
Saylor posted "We've found more orange space again," and longtime followers know this most likely signals another BTC buying alert. But don't rush to follow just yet. Last week, Strategy only bought 250 BTC, spending $21.5 million, which is the smallest increase this year.
Strategy already holds 848,250 BTC with an average cost of about $75,444, but the recent buying pace has clearly slowed. The company is also repurchasing about $192.4 million of STRC preferred shares, spending nearly 9 times more on that than on buying coins.
Now BTC is struggling around $82,000, macro pressures haven't disappeared, and the risk of MSCI possibly removing Strategy from the index is also brewing.
I think Saylor continuing to buy is definitely a sign of long-term confidence, but the orange tweet is just a preview, not new funds arriving. Wait for the official announcement to see exactly how much was bought and where the money came from, then judge whether this whale is accelerating accumulation or just maintaining the pace.Behind $BTC's price fluctuations, popularity and trend are not the same
Let's put the conclusion first: This round of $BTC's price fluctuations is worth tracking, but it can only explain why attention is focused now, not directly answer what the next price move will be. $BTC current price is 81,181.65, 24h -0.50%. Separating events, market responses, and comment section opinions makes things much clearer.
The real order of impact usually doesn't happen all at once for everyone. Divide people into three groups: those who need to trade, deposit/withdraw, or use related functions face actual changes first; holders then face expectation changes; onlookers often see conclusions that have been relayed multiple times last. First find which group you belong to, which is more important than taking a long or short position first.
Put verifiable facts on the table: $BTC current price 81,181.65, 24h -0.50%, 24h range 80,819.66—82,295.47. 1-hour is weak, 4-hour is weak, trading participation is about 1.49 times the average volume of the last 20 bars. These numbers cannot predict results for anyone but can check if the market is truly continuing to respond.#SpaceXQ3Earnings I am still optimistic about SpaceX, but I will not buy any shares above 155.
On October 13, the stock closed down 4.21%, falling from 171.09 on October 5 to about 157.
This decline is not due to fundamentals: on Tuesday this week, the FAA approved the environmental impact assessment request that raised the maximum annual launches from the Starship base from 25 to 456, and annual landings to 912;
Falcon 9 completed its 35th commercial resupply mission to the International Space Station on Tuesday; and Morgan Stanley confirmed a price target of 300, saying it is "cheap Liquidity Hunting: How can a $2 million liquidation trigger $51.59 million in liquidations within ten minutes? In the early hours of October 18, the AI concept stock perpetual contracts experienced a textbook liquidity hunt. Tread.fi CEO DYJ's transaction timeline revealed the crash path: at 05:21:59 Beijing time, the first large active sell order appeared for SNDK on Binance, with a transaction amount of about $407,000 in that second, which expanded to $1.03 million the next second; MU began to show selling pressure almost simultaneously. Why could $2 million trigger a chain of liquidations? The core lies in the liquidity vacuum. At five in the morning, the order book depth was extremely thin; a $2 million liquidation might not even cause a ripple during normal hours, but at that moment, it became a signal flare. After the price broke through a key level, the automatic liquidation mechanism started forcibly closing long positions; the forcibly closed longs then became new sell orders, pushing the price even lower and triggering more liquidations. A perfect death spiral completed within ten minutes. Hyperliquid's synchronized short attack acted as an amplifier. After Binance triggered the fuse, about 10 addresses on Hyperliquid submitted IOC sell orders concentrated on $SNDK, SOXL, DRAM, $SKHX, $SKHY, and $MU within 1.8 seconds. DYJ emphasized that all these orders were for opening new short positions, not just reducing positions. This was not retail panic, but a group of people doing the same thing on the same targets at the same second. The first round ended $PONS is heading straight to 0.1, too much profit was taken early on, the whales won't support the pump.The weekend crash was such a mess, yet the bulls are still crazily adding positions. Are they really treating the DOGE whales like charity cases?
$DOGE is currently priced at 0.0778, with a long-short ratio stubbornly hitting 3.66! Open interest is still rising, indicating that retail investors haven't fled despite the drop and are frantically bottom-fishing. But the daily chart keeps sliding down relentlessly. The bulls are holding on hard, but if it slips just below 0.075, a chain liquidation will be absolutely brutal.
Looking at $PEPE, currently at 0.000003839, the long-short ratio is also absurdly high at 3.16. Funding rates occasionally turn negative, meaning retail investors are not only trapped but also paying to beg the whales not to dump. The buying momentum is weak and entirely propped up by faith.
The wildest is $DNA, priced at 0.2615. I just checked the historical funding rate trend and thought it was negative, but after verifying the real-time order book, the current funding rate is actually positive at 0.0050%, though the basis remains negative. Open interest has surged, indicating bulls are paying shorts to hold on! Plus, the long-short ratio data is currently unavailable (highly controlled), so entering this blind box setup is just being cannon fodder.
My logic is simple: these are all bull traps. Retail investors are extremely crowded, and the whales are washing out positions accordingly. Catching a falling knife now is pure charity. My current stance is to hold fire, keep my bullets ready, and wait for this wave of high-leverage chips to be completely washed out and for market data to return to a healthy structure before considering entry.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year?