Orbit Post Sitemap
The technical outlook for $ETH really doesn't look good. ETH is currently priced around $2420, with the daily chart fully suppressed by the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. The MACD is hovering below the zero line, and the RSI is only 38.29, indicating a persistent weak consolidation. What's even more frustrating is a sell wall near 2410, accounting for 45.9% of the top 5 sell orders, with a buy-sell depth ratio of 0.70, favoring sellers. The ETF side isn't helping either; the ETH spot ETF saw a weekly outflow of $320.1 million, even exceeding Bitcoin's outflow, with BlackRock's ETHA alone accounting for over 90%. So, what's next? Signs of a reversal are also emerging. In the past 4 hours, ETH shorts liquidated $39.1 million, while longs only liquidated $400,000, nearly a 100-fold difference. Just above at 2419.83, a $5.4 million short position was recently liquidated. As long as the price can hold above 2419, there is still fuel for short covering. More importantly, while ETFs are running, whales have swept up 166,000 ETH in 72 hours, worth over $400 million, pushing the staking rate to a historic high of 36.13%, locking up more and more circulating supply. The probability of a rate hike has dropped from 27% to below 15%, easing pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Tonight, watch two key levels: 2419 is the watershed. Holding above and digesting the sell wall above could lead to a short squeeze continuation, targeting 2450, and possibly 2488 if stronger. But if 2398 breaks and open interest rises instead of falling, it indicates new shorts are taking over, and the risk of a pullback dominates again. The 2380-2400 range is critical.$APR is the biggest loser this month, down 95%. Why do I advise you not to catch the falling knife?
APRS dropped from 0.6296 to 0.0290, a decline of 95.4%.
Many see "only 3 cents left" and think it's cheap. But do the math: to go from 0.0290 back to 0.6296, it needs to increase 21.7 times.
More importantly, liquidity: the circulating market cap is about 2.94 million USD, but the 24-hour contract trading volume is 53.11 million USD, which is 18 times the circulating market cap. The order book is very thin and dominated by leverage; a single bearish candle can halve the price again.
A 6.5% rebound after a 95% drop is not a reversal, it's a technical correction amid high volatility.
Remember three things:
A drop does not equal a bottom;
Low price does not equal undervaluation;
For small-cap contracts, don't bet heavily on a rebound.
The market doesn't owe a rebound just because a coin has fallen a lot.El principal problema del mercado hoy ya no es solo la inflación, sino la capacidad real de empresas, hogares y gobiernos para soportar un coste del capital persistentemente alto. Aunque índices como el Dow Jones y el S&P 500 aparentan calma en la superficie, la estructura interna del mercado muestra fuertes señales de estrés que impactan directamente el apetito por el riesgo y la liquidez global: 1️⃣ La tríada macro en EE. UU. (Inflación + Fed + Empleo débil): • Inflación presionada por la enerStablecoins transferred 97.9 trillion USD, which cannot be directly read as "spent this much on buying things." Allium's Q3 report divides the data for the first three quarters of this year up to September 30 into three layers: raw transfers of 97.9 trillion USD, filtered terminal transfers of about 2.4 trillion USD, among which identified payments are about 482 billion USD.
The easiest to misinterpret is 2.5%: this is the proportion of filtered transfer volume to raw transfer volume, not the proportion of consumer payments. The report excludes funds flows from exchanges, on-chain finance, infrastructure, automation, and minting/burning, then categorizes the remaining transfers in a fixed order; exclusion does not mean the transfer is fake.
For those doing payment business or judging stablecoin usage, the difference is significant: the same money circulating through different stages appears multiple times in raw transfers. Directly taking the total amount as commercial payment scale easily counts fund transfers as new demand. Subsequently, compare using the same method, then look at payment counts and single payment amounts.
In this sample, Tron accounts for about two-thirds of the payment amount. The TRX/USDT below is only a spot reference for the native coin of that network and cannot be used to infer token price increases based on payment share.
Source and original image: Allium 10/15 report summary, reviewed 10/19;
https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/trx-usdtOctober 19 marks the 39th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash, and before the market opened, the term "Black Monday" was trending on overseas social platforms. The reasons are straightforward: Brent crude oil hovered around $110, U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, the volatility index was reported to have surged to a four-month high, tokenized AI stocks experienced a round of liquidation over the weekend, and someone calculated that U.S. tech stocks have evaporated $1.9 trillion during this period. Normally, such a combination of factors would cause crypto to dive. But the market moved in the opposite direction: Bitcoin closed slightly higher above 82,000, mainstream coins generally turned green, and ZEC, LINK, and SOL showed clear strength. There is a counterintuitive point here—why didn’t crypto react to the same set of bad news this time? My understanding is that the leverage structure has changed. The historic liquidation on October 10 forcibly closed nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions in one day, effectively draining the high leverage supply in the market ahead of time. Low leverage supply means that when the same bad news comes through, forced selling is much less. This is the benefit of "having already gone through a round of decline," but the cost is less upward momentum, so the rise is less satisfying. The second detail is even more worth noting: in the past day, the fund flows of various ETFs were inconsistent—Bitcoin products saw a slight net inflow, while XRP, SOL, and ETH products collectively had a net outflow of tens of millions of dollars. The money is not retreating; it is rotating positions. This is very different from a "panic escape" scenario. What really caught my attention was an on-chain operation: a whale closed a $110 million Bitcoin long position at 80,949, realizing a loss of about 3 $CORE $CORE $STX ✅Underlying Positioning (Fundamental Difference) - STX (Stacks): The true Bitcoin L2 (the real leader) Transactions ultimately anchored to Bitcoin main chain settlement, after Nakamoto upgrade, security directly relies on BTC; sBTC is its core native BTC wrapped asset, no cross-chain bridge needed, high decentralization standard, widely recognized by overseas institutions as the first-tier BTCFi infrastructure - CORE: Bitcoin sidechain / EVM-compatible chain with Satoshi Plus consensus, leveraging Bitcoin miners' hash power for security, not a native Bitcoin L2; advantage is EVM, Ethereum developers can directly migrate contracts; drawback is: it is an independent chain, not a Bitcoin settlement layer, with low recognition in the BTC native circle ✅Core BTC Assets & Institutional Progress - STX sBTC is the flagship product, no deposit limit, multiple leading institutions such as HashKey, UTXO Management, Jump Crypto participate in BTC staking; the new Bond 2 phase with 500 BTC quota has been fully filled by the ecosystem, producing BTC-denominated yield (yield paid directly in BTC), very attractive to large funds - CORE LstBTC, coreBTC, dual staking products; European ETP products are highlights, but a large portion of yield comes from CORE token rewards, not BTC-denominated yield, user returns highly depend on CThese past two days I've been playing "Prophet S3" on the @okxchinese planet, and finally found a way suitable for crypto users to study US stock earnings reports: first use free XP to make a judgment, then let PnL verify yourself. This time I bought Tesla earnings NO in Outcomes: holding 714.08 shares, purchase price 25¢, currently floating a 4% loss, and the available XP in the account is already 0. I'll first show my position, and after the earnings come out, I'll accept the win or loss, so I don't pretend to be a prophet after the results are in. I am not bearish on Tesla in the long term. Robotaxi, Optimus, AI, and energy storage all still have huge potential. But the question on the OKX planet is very specific: will Tesla's earnings this quarter beat expectations? This is completely a different question from "Is Tesla worth being optimistic about in the long term?" Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles this quarter, which is indeed impressive, and also pushed the YES in the Outcomes market to about 76¢ at one point. Delivery volume answers how many cars were sold, but the earnings report still needs to be examined for automotive gross margin, free cash flow, AI and factory investments, and the management's guidance for the next quarter. The market now assigns a high probability to beating expectations. Continuing to bet YES at this point means Tesla's report can't just be "good," it has to be better than the expectations already priced in by the market. So I choose NO. This is also my feeling#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 5 Critical BTC Variables This Week, Ranked by Importance
1️⃣ Meta/Tesla Earnings Report (After Market Close Wednesday) — Short-Term Primary Pricing Power
Last week, the Nasdaq dropped 4%, and AI stocks lost $1 trillion in market value in one week. The market isn’t trading "how good AI is" right now; it’s trading "whether AI is actually profitable."
Tesla’s EPS is expected to decline 14.5% year-over-year, and revenue forecasts are also down. Meta’s revenue is expected to grow 23%, but EPS is forecasted to drop 8%. In 2026, device and data center spending will reach $130–145 billion, plus about $10 billion in legal fees.
Translation: AI investments are burning cash, and profits are being eaten up.
Good earnings reports restore risk appetite, giving BTC a breather. Poor earnings push the Nasdaq down further, and BTC’s $80,000 level becomes the next domino. The first domino falls after Wednesday’s close.
2️⃣ Friday’s PMI + Michigan Inflation Expectations — The Last Inflation Gauge Before the FOMC
The October FOMC has entered a blackout period; officials won’t speak publicly, so the market must price based on data alone.
The probability of a rate hike in October has dropped from 75% in late September to about 15%. But this "15%" is fragile—if Friday’s PMI remains strong and Michigan’s one-year inflation expectations don’t fall, the market will immediately raise the odds of a rate hike again.
The rate cut trade has been BTC’s hidden leverage over the past month. If data reverses this, the $80,000 support must be reassessed.
3️⃣ Jensen Huang’s GTC Speech (Wednesday) — Can the AI Narrative Reignite?
Jensen Huang’s GTC talks are never just about chips. He talks about a "token factory"—data centers are no longer just storage centers but factories producing intelligent tokens, turning computing power from a cost center into a profit center.
This narrative is crucial for BTC because AI sentiment and risk asset sentiment are now intertwined. If AI is stable, tech stocks are stable, and BTC gets breathing room. If AI continues to fall, BTC can’t strengthen alone.
Jensen Huang doesn’t need to call out Bitcoin; he just needs to make the market believe "computing power demand hasn’t peaked." That’s enough.
4️⃣ Oil Prices + Hormuz Strait — The Master Switch of Inflation Expectations
Brent crude approached $110 last Friday, then fell back to around $108–109 on Monday. Traffic through the Hormuz Strait is down about 3 million barrels per day compared to early October.
Trump is granting waivers and suppressing oil prices. The Houthis are attacking and pushing prices up. The direction of oil prices dictates inflation expectations, which in turn dictate rate hike probabilities.
This chain doesn’t directly crush BTC, but it’s the mother of all macro variables. If oil prices don’t relent, a hand will always hang over BTC’s head.
5️⃣ BTC’s Own $80,000 Gamma — The Last Technical Defense Line
BTC is now oscillating near $82,000, with $80,000 as a core support level. If open interest in options remains concentrated at the $80,000 strike and dealers maintain positive gamma, this support has structural cushioning.
But if open contracts start rolling off after expiration, the "options magnet" effect at $80,000 will vanish. Then the next support isn’t $78,000 but $75,000—where the 200-day EMA and a denser liquidation zone lie.
$80,000 isn’t an iron bottom. It’s a temporary table propped up by options structure.
In short: Don’t bet on direction this week; wait for earnings and PMI to reveal the cards.
You think you’re trading BTC, but you’re actually trading Meta’s EPS, Jensen Huang’s PPT, and Hormuz Strait’s traffic volume. Only those who wait for the cards to be revealed before betting have the right to speak in the next round.
$BTC $TSLA $META #InstitutionalFundsWeakening, Who Will See Inflows First, BTC or ETH? 上周五，纳斯达克下跌2.2%，科技股遭遇明显抛售。
但到了今天，比特币反而出现反弹。
一个值得思考的问题来了：
比特币是不是开始不跟美股跌了？
我认为，现在谈脱钩还太早。
因为比特币是24小时交易，美股不是。
周末比特币的反弹，和美股开盘后的资金选择，根本不是同一场考试。
真正值得观察的是今晚美股开盘。
如果纳指继续承压，比特币却能够维持强势，甚至突破近期阻力，那才是相对强势开始得到验证。
但如果美股一开盘，比特币又跟着下跌，那前面的反弹可能更多只是周末流动性环境下的价格修复。
市场最容易制造的错觉，就是把时间上的错位，当成资产之间的脱钩。
别急着宣布比特币独立了。
真正的强势，不是别人没交易时你能涨，而是别人开始卖时你还能扛得住。 Event: Following the success of MicroStrategy in the US and Metaplanet in Japan, another technology corporation listed in Hong Kong has just announced plans to issue convertible bonds worth 150 million USD to add Bitcoin to its strategic reserve balance sheet. Detailed analysis notes: The financial model "converting debt into hard assets": Companies take advantage of the declining interest rate environment to borrow low-cost fiat currency, then convert it entirely into assets withETFs are all experiencing outflows, so where does the idea of “ETH funds shifting to BTC” come from?
I’m not quite convinced by the conclusion that “institutions are moving from ETH to BTC.” It currently looks more like a simultaneous contraction of risk exposure, with ETH bearing more pressure this week. Directly interpreting the fund changes between the two as a zero-sum game risks misreading the market retreat as a rotation between coins.
For the full week ending October 16, BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $228.4 million, and ETH about $320.1 million, so ETH is indeed weaker. But looking at the last trading day, BTC’s net outflow was about $82.4 million, actually higher than ETH’s $69.7 million. On a weekly basis, ETH performed worse, but on a single day, the directions were not the same.
This data supports that “ETH has been more fragile recently,” but it does not prove that “money selling ETH is buying BTC.” If there were a clear rotation, we should at least see BTC funds continuously improving, rather than BTC itself also experiencing net outflows.
My judgment is: for now, interpret this as an overall reduction in positions rather than a quick fund migration; but if risk appetite continues to shrink, ETH, due to larger weekly outflows, is indeed more likely to come under pressure first. Conversely, if ETH strengthens relative to BTC and ETF outflows narrow, this weak bias should be withdrawn. Going forward, the key to watch is not who has more outflows in a single day, but whether BTC can first return to net inflows and whether ETH can stop its continuous outflows. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $BTC $ETH #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 我的观点：**HBM4量产是利好，但"再创新高"的关键不在HBM4本身，而在通用DRAM的价格周期。**
1. **HBM4短期确定性强。** AI服务器需求旺盛，SK海力士在HBM上有先发和份额优势，Q3业绩大概率延续高增长，创新高并不意外。
2. **市场看的是"超预期"，而不是"创新高"。** 截图里"JinSe Finance"的观点有道理：股价和P/B已经计入了大量预期，10月28日财报若只是符合预期，股价未必上涨，甚至可能"利好出尽"。
3. **周期风险不能忽视。** 通用DRAM和NAND一旦价格回落，叠加三星、美光扩产和竞争，HBM的利润不一定能独自撑住整体盈利。
4. **后道设备订单推迟这条是个信号。** 说明扩产节奏可能偏谨慎，这对供给端是正面（有利于价格），但对产业链预期是个扰动，需要财报电话会上确认。
**财报时重点看这几项：** HBM4的出货占比和良率、2027年HBM的议价情况（价格和份额）、资本开支指引，以及管理层对通用DRAM价格的判断。
总结：**盈利创新高概率大，但股价反应取决于指引和预期差。** Don't be fooled by "Uptober," Monday's slap woke the bulls up.
This week is a macro sell-off plus on-chain deleveraging scenario, unrelated to the crypto fundamentals.
Trigger: oil price breaking $100, the Strait of Hormuz situation, 10-year US Treasury yield topping 5.2%, the dollar hitting an 18-month high, and the Fed flipping from rate cuts to possible hikes.
Money first fled: $BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of nearly 680 million in one week (the largest since June), $ETH ETFs have been withdrawing for over ten days, with nearly 1 billion liquidated in a single day, bulls accounting for 80%.
The three brothers diverged:
BTC fell from 87,000 to 81,000, then recovered to 82,400, holding the 81,000 support with the strongest resilience; in the latter half of the week, institutional ETFs replenished again;
ETH dropped below 2,500 and bottomed around 2,420, ETH/BTC ratio under pressure, staking unlocks plus lack of hit products make independent strength difficult;
$HYPE suffered the worst, giving back the gains from early in the month, down about 12% this week to $79, high beta retreat takes the first hit.
My judgment: this is macro passive deleveraging, not a crypto-specific crash. 81,000 is BTC's lifeline; if it holds, it's still a range, if broken, watch 78,000; no reversal talk for ETH unless it returns above 2,600. Don't rush to bottom-fish short-term, wait for US Treasury yields and oil prices to catch a breath, and risk appetite to return before acting.Last Friday, ETFs had a net redemption of 152 million, yet this morning 82,400 still holds, with all the top sellers being short stop-losses 😅
Of that 152 million, BTC was redeemed by 82.4 million, mainly from BlackRock and Fidelity; ETH was redeemed by 69.7 million, all from BlackRock alone. Big money off-exchange didn't return over the weekend.
Across the entire network, 313 million was liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 60%; in the last hour, 29.72 million was liquidated, with shorts making up 96%. The price did rise, but shorts kept the momentum going.
BTC, ETH, and SOL are all deep in the red today. SOL positions increased the most aggressively; ETH had the highest liquidation in 24 hours at 94.09 million, BTC touched 82,405, and trading volume nearly doubled.
The gainers and losers are at extremes: some up nearly 40%, others down 30%, while the mainstream coins are grinding within 1%. Fear and greed index is 60, lukewarm and steady 😐
There are quite a few macro news events today, all queued up for release: Q3 GDP and new office press conference this morning, Financial Street Forum opening, LPR tomorrow, and Canadian CPI tonight. So these news items need attention to prevent any sudden market manipulation causing sharp spikes or drops.
My trading suggestions for reference:
① ETF net redemptions combined with liquidation continuations mean the rebound is borrowed strength; don't chase longs before the news releases;
② ETH has the most liquidations but the least price increase, with the highest fee rate among the three coins at 0.0091%; shorts are paying the price, longs shouldn't rush to catch the falling knife;
③ Extremes on both ends of the leaderboard, mainstream sideways—typical stock game; wait for the news to settle before choosing a side.
All kinds of news are queued for release. Although prices have risen, I choose to hold my position and wait for the shoe to drop.The most fragile link isn't actually the price, but the patience that's being worn down bit by bit. SOL has been hovering around 100 for two years now; are you still waiting for it to give an explanation? Last night I looked back at some old ETH charts from 2019 and suddenly felt a bit dazed. Back then, ETH dropped just above 140, and the screen was full of "Ethereum is finished" comments. But then, with the arrival of DeFi Summer, it immediately proved them wrong by multiplying tenfold. Now SOL is stuck around 100, sliding nearly 5 points in seven days. The fundamentals are much more solid than the 2017 version, but the market just can't get excited. This kind of "fundamentals aren't broken, but sentiment is already tired" mismatch is the most easily overlooked pricing point in this cycle. What’s really being traded isn’t whether SOL will die, but "how much longer am I willing to stick with it." I read that Fidelity report; it said Solana itself has no major issues but pointed out staking concentration as a vulnerability. Interestingly, the fact that institutions are willing to spend dozens of pages picking it apart means it’s on the serious research list. But being researched doesn’t mean being hyped—they’re watching carefully, mostly waiting for a cheaper entry point. The current price is prey, not a gift, to institutions, and this expectation gap hasn’t been fully priced in yet. The bullish path is clear: as long as the 99.38 support holds, chips are quietly changing hands. Once it breaks above 106.69, the hesitant crowd will instantly turn into buyers chasing the rally, and altcoin sentiment will warm up again. The risk is straightforward—breaking below 99 means a different scenario, stop#Bitcoin briefly stands above $82,000
Did Bitcoin fake a drop again? It plunged desperately over the weekend, with $BTC hitting a low just above $80,000 last night. This morning, a big bullish candle V-shaped back, pulling it back above 82,400 as if nothing happened. But whether this rebound is "fragile" or "solid" still depends on the follow-up volume.
From the chart, the 15-minute level did break through, but the trading volume didn’t keep up. It looks more like a "false breakout" caused by short covering rather than a genuine push by bulls with real money. Market sentiment is very delicate now. On the macro side, the Fed’s rate hike expectations haven’t fully faded, and the 5.31% US Treasury yield hangs like a sword overhead, ready to pressure risk assets at any time.
Looking at altcoins, although some small coins like Celestia can jump a bit, overall liquidity is still far from sufficient. The order book depth for Bitcoin and Ethereum has recovered, but altcoins remain a "dead pool," with funds clearly concentrating on mainstream coins. What does this mean?
It means if you chase those "seemingly cheap" altcoins, you’re likely to get trapped in a "liquidity trap." Right now, existing funds are holding on stubbornly, institutions are quietly taking over, but there’s no sign yet of a broad bull market capital base.
Don’t get carried away by Monday’s bullish candle. Around $82,000, you can consider reducing your position or taking some profits, then wait for a pullback to confirm support before thinking about adding more. If it really breaks below $80,600, then be cautious!Last Friday, the Nasdaq dropped 2.2%, with tech stocks facing a significant sell-off.
But today, Bitcoin actually rebounded.
Here’s a question worth considering:
Has Bitcoin started to decouple from the US stock market decline?
I think it’s still too early to talk about decoupling.
Because Bitcoin trades 24 hours a day, while the US stock market does not.
The weekend rebound of Bitcoin and the capital choices after the US market opens are fundamentally not the same test.
What’s really worth watching is the US market opening tonight.
If the Nasdaq continues to be under pressure, but Bitcoin can maintain strength or even break through recent resistance, that would be a real validation of relative strength beginning.
But if Bitcoin falls again as soon as the US market opens, then the earlier rebound might have been more of a price correction under weekend liquidity conditions.
The market’s easiest illusion to create is mistaking a timing mismatch for a decoupling between assets.
Don’t rush to declare Bitcoin independent.
True strength isn’t about rising when others aren’t trading, but about holding firm when others start selling. ZEC surged 8% today. Can you understand this move?
Three core reasons for ZEC's big rise:
1. BTC market recovery driving the rally (fundamental)
BTC stabilized and rebounded, market risk appetite increased, funds started looking for flexible targets among small-cap coins, and the privacy sector rotation reached ZEC.
2. Extremely low liquidity, a small amount of funds can drive a large price increase (most critical)
ZEC has a small market cap and thin order book, insufficient sell-side depth, so it doesn't require huge funds to quickly push up the price; at the same time, it triggers short-seller stop losses, causing a short squeeze and price surge, amplifying the rise. This is also the root cause of its frequent sharp rises and falls.
3. Sector funds speculation
There is no new main market theme, funds rotate to speculate on the privacy coin narrative, short-term funds pour in, and retail investors follow FOMO, further pushing up the price.
Key points on the chart:
• Nature: This is a short-term speculative rally by funds, not a fundamental reversal.
• Risk warning: Such impulse rallies tend to quickly fall back after peaking, and profit-taking can cause rapid declines. Whoa, Brother Sun is also playing with Meme, trading $PEPE again after two years!?
Yesterday, Justin Sun (address 0x176…0a132) received 7.2 trillion $PEPE worth 28.44 million USD from Poloniex's multisig address. This is the first on-chain PEPE operation since June 2024 (when the coin price was still $0.00001256).
Everyone knows that Brother Sun, as the top holder of $WLFI, was forcibly "locked up" and cannot withdraw.
On October 14, he said in an interview that if he could go back in time, he would still invest in WLFI. Much of the related information was only learned after the investment, and it was not fully disclosed at the time, so it was hard for him to make a different decision or feel regret. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $12.86 billion, +12% year-over-year; +11% on a constant currency basis, market consensus: about $13 billion, market expectations are higher than the company's own guidance, with a slight risk of missing expectations. Company guidance: 33.2% (28.2% in the same period last year), the biggest highlight of this quarter; the company indicates Q2 is the peak growth period for 2026 content amortization, with content cost growth slowing in the second half of the year, supporting profit margins to remain high. Capital return: remaining $27.1 billion buyback quota, the market will pay attention to the buyback execution strength this quarter...#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Among the 50 perpetual contracts in the entire market, only 12 have shorts paying fees.
ATOM ranks first, with -0.0204% every 8 hours.
Annualized -22%, meaning shorts pay two-tenths of their principal in a year.
The fee is settled every 8 hours.
A negative value means shorts pay longs; the platform takes no cut.
This money just moves between the two sides.
What’s interesting is the price.
ATOM dropped 17.34% over the past 7 trading days and is rebounding today.
Shorts paid fees but the price didn’t reward them.
With the same negative fee rate, STRK is different.
Its fee rate is -0.0158%, and it dropped 48.5% over these 7 trading days.
Shorts paid fees and also profited.
JUP’s fee rate is -0.0183%, it dropped 26.13% in 7 days, and rose 4% today.
Like ATOM, shorts paid fees but didn’t profit.
So the fee rate is not a directional signal.
It only tells you which side has more people.
When there are more shorts, the price doesn’t necessarily fall.
But shorts have to pay fees, so their holding cost increases day by day.
I think the real signal is not the fee rate itself.
It’s what the price is doing on the day the fee rate turns negative.
If the fee rate turns negative and the price is still rising, it means shorts are adding positions against the trend.
These positions are the most fragile because they lose both time and price.
$ATOM
#FundingRate#HBM4 mass production can it drive SK Hynix's profits to new highs? *HBM4 mass production is positive, but the key to "new highs" is not in HBM4 itself, but in the price cycle of general DRAM.**
1. **HBM4 has strong short-term certainty.** AI server demand is strong, SK Hynix has a first-mover and market share advantage in HBM, Q3 performance is very likely to continue high growth, new highs are not surprising.
2. **The market looks at "exceeding expectations," not just "new highs."** The view from "JinSe Finance" in the screenshot makes sense: stock price and P/B already reflect a lot of expectations, if the October 28 earnings report only meets expectations, the stock price may not rise, and might even "sell the news."
3. **Cycle risks cannot be ignored.** If prices of general DRAM and NAND fall, combined with Samsung and Micron's capacity expansions and competition, HBM profits alone may not sustain overall profitability.
4. **The delay in backend equipment orders is a signal.** It indicates that the expansion pace may be cautious, which is positive for supply (beneficial to prices), but a disturbance to industry chain expectations, needing confirmation in the earnings call.
**Key points to watch in the earnings report:** HBM4 shipment share and yield, HBM pricing situation in 2027 (price and share), capital expenditure guidance, and management's judgment on general DRAM prices.
Summary: **High probability of profit reaching new highs, but stock price reaction depends on guidance and expectation gaps.**High win rate does not equal survival: Why two large accounts went to zero
Seeing two large capital accounts both liquidated, the win rate was actually shockingly high, but the maximum drawdown was close to 100%.
The problem is not the win rate, but adding positions against the trend with martingale during losses. The position size keeps increasing, risk is unlimited, and a single trend can wipe out the profits of dozens of previous trades.
Essentially, it’s refusing to admit mistakes, wanting every trade to be profitable, unwilling to accept account-level stop loss, causing the hole to only get bigger and bigger.
A reminder to myself: Stop loss is a cost, not a failure. Don’t blindly add positions. Surviving longer is more important than having a high win rate. $BTCThe weekend crash was such a mess, yet the bulls are still crazily adding positions. Are they really treating the DOGE whales like charity cases?
$DOGE is currently priced at 0.0778, with a long-short ratio stubbornly hitting 3.66! Open interest is still rising, indicating that retail investors haven't fled despite the drop and are frantically bottom-fishing. But the daily chart keeps sliding down relentlessly. The bulls are holding on hard, but if it slips just below 0.075, a chain liquidation will be absolutely brutal.
Looking at $PEPE, currently at 0.000003839, the long-short ratio is also absurdly high at 3.16. Funding rates occasionally turn negative, meaning retail investors are not only trapped but also paying to beg the whales not to dump. The buying momentum is weak and entirely propped up by faith.
The wildest is $DNA, priced at 0.2615. I just checked the historical funding rate trend and thought it was negative, but after verifying the real-time order book, the current funding rate is actually positive at 0.0050%, though the basis remains negative. Open interest has surged, indicating bulls are paying shorts to hold on! Plus, the long-short ratio data is currently unavailable (highly controlled), so entering this blind box setup is just being cannon fodder.
My logic is simple: these are all bull traps. Retail investors are extremely crowded, and the whales are washing out positions accordingly. Catching a falling knife now is pure charity. My current stance is to hold fire, keep my bullets ready, and wait for this wave of high-leverage chips to be completely washed out and for market data to return to a healthy structure before considering entry.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? BTC在周末涨了0.43%，但这一周整体还是跌了2.63%。为什么周末的涨跌通常不能当真？ 先说新闻。周末的几个数字：BTC报81,696美元，24小时 +0.43%、近一周 -2.63%，20日区间79,775.1到87,238.3；美元指数101.84（-0.16%）；黄金4,181.1（+0.26%，现货4,166.10）；恐惧贪婪指数从55回落到53。需要说明的是：ETF在周末不进行申购赎回，最新单日数据仍是交易日（+1,630万），5日累计净流出3.241亿、10日净流出7.233亿；标普500的7,659.44（-1.09%）也是上一交易日收盘值。 再看资金影响。周末的定价有三个特点：第一，流动性低——同样的买卖盘会带来更大的价格波动；第二，缺少资金数据的验证——ETF、机构申赎都不更新；第三，参与者结构不同——做市商和机构大多休息，价格更容易被短线资金推动。所以周末的涨跌，信噪比最低，适合用来观察情绪，不适合用来判断趋势。 对BTC的含义：真正有信息量的信号通常出现在工作日的资金数据里——ETF净流入与流出、CME持仓、稳定币增发。周末的价格如果和工作日的资金数据方向一致The US stock market is still closed, but perpetual contracts related to chip stocks have already undergone a round of concentrated liquidation. According to CoinDesk citing CoinGlass data, about $51.6 million worth of positions were forcibly liquidated in Singapore between 05:22 and 05:32 on October 18.
This figure represents the scale of liquidated positions and does not equate to the evaporation of stock market value. The contracts traded track stock prices, and the spot market did not have synchronized transactions at that time to verify prices.
My judgment is that this round of volatility first exposed the pricing challenges of all-weather trading. Leveraged positions being forced to close will continue to affect contract prices; directly using these prices to predict Monday's chip stocks risks including liquidation pressure in company valuations.
When stocks resume trading, whether the price gap between contracts and spot can converge will help discern how much new pricing information this volatility contains. Trading hours have been extended, but price references have not necessarily been extended synchronously. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
**Netflix Q3 Preview: 72% Will Beat Expectations, But Don't Rush to Bet Yes**
Earnings release after market close on October 20. The market has already priced in a 72¢ chance of a Yes, and beating expectations is indeed highly likely: Q3 guidance of $12.86 billion (+12%) is conservative, consensus has been revised down to $12.88 billion, almost on target, and Netflix has a history of "low guidance, over-delivery."
But beat ≠ stock rise: the stock has dropped 43% from its high, bad news is mostly priced in, and in Q2 it still fell despite "EPS beating expectations, revenue missing." The real game-changer is Q4 guidance and advertising fulfillment — ad monthly active users surpassing 250 million, this year's revenue target doubling to $3 billion, with $750 million per quarter as the passing line.
In terms of trading: $65 is the lifeline, only holding above $80 counts as recovery; 72¢ odds are average, be cautious chasing highs.
(Not investment advice)🔥 BTC stands above 82,500, but leveraged longs are still "paying to work"!
BTC current price is 82,522, up slightly 1.66% in 24h, and the 4-hour chart is above MA5/10/20, seemingly in a "weak recovery." However, derivatives data reveals a painful detail: futures open interest has dropped to $7.68 billion, and the funding rate remains positive (0.0035% every 8 hours), meaning longs are paying shorts to hold positions — the price hasn't risen much, but leveraged longs are continuously "bleeding."
The funding situation is more realistic: BTC spot ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with another $228 million outflow last week; Galaxy Research head bluntly states that ETF net outflows combined with Treasury's weak coin purchases are the main reasons for price pressure in October.
What are the whales doing? Two long orders over $100 million: one $97.87 million 40x long liquidated at 79,828, just 1.5% below current price; another $110 million long stop loss at 80,500 was nearly triggered, with a risky liquidation loss of $3.26 million at dawn before switching to US stocks. Meanwhile, an ancient whale dormant for 12-13 years moved 416 BTC. $BTC
Ordinary people shouldn't rush to chase this "recovery." The first dense resistance is at 82,500-82,800 above, and the short-term defense zone is 80,700-81,100 below. Leveraged longs are paying, ETFs are retreating, who are you taking over from if you enter? Did you make a move today? Let's discuss in the comments👇#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 What is the hardest asset in the world? It's Bitcoin.
Last Friday, despite the Nasdaq plunging 2.5% and the VIX soaring up to 40%, Bitcoin completely refused to drop. This is a typical bull market behavior, showing immunity to negative news.
Looking at last week's active sell volume, Binance, OKX, and Coinbase collectively sold 12,450 Bitcoins actively. This figure is relatively low and normal for August and September. In other words, despite the Nasdaq's sharp decline and the global asset sell-off, Bitcoin did not experience a large-scale panic sell-off. Holders showed considerable composure and patience.
Although the spot VD (active net buy difference) showed a net sell of 65.92 million, it remains at a relatively low level. Net inflows appeared on Saturday and Sunday. Everything is moving in a positive direction 【ZEC升级要动老隐私池了：两万多枚币，可能再也花不出去】
Zcash 的 NU7 升级有个容易被忽略的代价：Sprout 老隐私池里的$ZEC ，升级后可能永久无法支出。原因是提案拟禁用旧版 v4 交易，而 Sprout 只能靠它转账。社区资料显示，池内还剩约 2.2 万枚 ZEC，规模不算大，但对这一部分持币人的影响却很大。
这不是销毁代币，也不是所有 ZEC 都被冻结，矛头只对准 Sprout。开发者的理由是它早已被新隐私池取代，继续维护会增加协议复杂度和安全负担。
争议就在这里：网络想减负，少数持币者却可能付出永久失去支配权的代价。对 ZEC 价格而言，单看这点数量，对ZEC的影响也有限，后续值得看的是升级治理和隐私资产的信任成本。
如果 10 月 20 日开发团队确认按计划推进，11 月 5 日主网上线目标就更明确了。眼下最该关注的是升级是否如期落地，以及剩余资金能否及时迁出。ZEC 的短线涨跌，还得看实际买卖盘，不能光靠这条消息下注。公司指引：128.6亿美元，同比+12%；汇率中性口径+11% ，市场一致预期：约130亿美元，市场预期高于公司自指引，存在小幅不及预期风险 公司指引：33.2%（去年同期28.2%），是本季度最大亮点；公司提示Q2是2026内容摊销增速高点，下半年内容成本增速回落，支撑利润率维持高位 资本回报：剩余271亿美元回购额度，市场会关注本季度回购执行力度；无大额资本开支，现金流质量整体强于特斯拉这类重资产企业#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Institutional funds weaken, who will see the first inflow, BTC or ETH?
Currently, the BTC market looks okay but is actually quite precarious. Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $80,694, then barely climbed back near 82,000; Ethereum was even more volatile on the evening of the 18th, plunging 1.1% in 15 minutes, falling from 2360 to 2332, with the 2400 level briefly breached. The technical outlook is also not good: Bitcoin's daily moving averages are still trending down, the weekly candle closed bearish, indicating short-term bearishness. Next, let's see if supports at 79,500 and 76,500 hold, while bears are defending around 83,500.
Market sentiment is also fragile. The Nasdaq dropped 2.1% the previous day, Middle East tensions pushed oil prices close to $110 per barrel, everyone is already in risk-off mode, and funds are still flowing out of crypto, combining multiple pressures.
Bitcoin is barely holding above 80,000, but ETF money keeps flowing out, Strategy's coin purchases have clearly slowed, and altcoins are falling harder, indicating weakening institutional buying power. Regulatory big bills are stuck, but the SEC and CFTC are still acting independently, and medium to long-term regulations have not stopped. The biggest short-term pressure is the chain of “high inflation → fear of rate hikes → risk assets under pressure,” with the FOMC meeting on October 28 as the next key event.
$BTC $ETH $SOL The decline of $PONS is like boiling a frog slowly, while the daily revenue scale of $PUMP is 30 times that of pons!
Let's first look at the latest data; the gap between the two is already very obvious.
$PONS: Fundamentals and price are weakening in sync. The price has dropped from a high of $0.90 to $0.26, a retracement of about 71%;
Daily protocol revenue is only about $36,000!!
Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume yesterday was about $775 million, ranking fourth across the entire chain, but PONS's own trading volume was only about $32.7 million, basically flat compared to the previous day.
More critically, the buyback wallet has only about $430,000 of funds left to use; about 500,000 tokens were burned yesterday, bringing the cumulative burn ratio up to 32.59%. If revenue fails to recover soon, the buyback intensity may continue to decline.
$PUMP: Buyback firepower is stronger. As of October 16, PUMP's single-day buyback burn was about $979,200, burning about 212.7 million tokens;
Currently, the circulating supply is about 399.5 billion tokens, with a total supply of 1 trillion tokens. Although the price has retreated from recent highs, the protocol is still continuously investing real money in buybacks.
I think the risk for PONS is the combination of declining revenue and limited buyback fund pool; the advantage of PUMP is its larger buyback scale and sustainability, which is more worth observing. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Key Financial Expectations
1. Revenue
- Company guidance: $12.86 billion, +12% year-over-year; +11% on a currency-neutral basis
- Market consensus: about $13 billion, market expectations are higher than the company's own guidance, with a slight risk of underperformance
2. GAAP EPS
- Company guidance: $0.82 (net profit $3.45 billion)
- Analyst consensus: $0.84, with little divergence
3. Operating Margin
- Company guidance: 33.2% (28.2% in the same period last year), the biggest highlight this quarter; the company indicates Q2 is the peak growth period for content amortization until 2026, with content cost growth slowing in the second half of the year, supporting margin maintenance at a high level
4. Capital Return: Remaining $27.1 billion buyback quota, the market will focus on the execution strength of buybacks this quarter; no large capital expenditures, overall cash flow quality is stronger than heavy-asset companies like TeslaPrivate messages exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh, Charles Schwab opens BTC transfers, Deutsche Bank is also going to do custody, these two traditional giants are acting together, is Bitcoin about to take off directly? Pharaoh directly said, not quite take off, but the "compliance expressway" has indeed been expanded by two more lanes. Let's first see what these two have done. Charles Schwab officially opens Bitcoin and Ethereum transfer functions to U.S. clients, allowing clients to freely transfer assets between Schwab accounts and external wallets or other exchanges, truly realizing "self-custody of private keys." Previously, Schwab only supported buying and selling crypto assets within the platform, without the ability to transfer out. Schwab manages over $11 trillion in client assets; opening this function is equivalent to building a "channel from traditional accounts to the on-chain world" for clients. Deutsche Bank's head of corporate banking confirmed plans to launch crypto asset custody services in 2026, initially covering Bitcoin and Ethereum, targeting 1,600 institutional clients. The technology partner is Bitpanda, just waiting for the EU MiCA license process to complete. What does this mean for Bitcoin? In the short term, it's a sentiment boost, not an engine. Schwab opening transfers lets clients freely withdraw assets, reducing concerns about "exchange runaways," but it won't bring large-scale incremental buying in the short term. Deutsche Bank custody won't launch until 2026, so there's still waiting. Bitcoin is currently stuck around 80,000, with short-term support at 79,800 and resistance at 82,000. In the long term, it strengthens the underlying foundation. Schwab has unlocked the "withdrawal" link, Deutsche Bank solves the "storage" issue.The post from Friday was pretty much on point
At that time, it was said "$BTC won't break 80,000, it will slowly climb over the weekend, BTC will hold steady at 82,000, $ETH has a chance to reach 2,500." Looking at today, BTC indeed stabilized around 82,000, but Ethereum is still some way off 2,500
Ethereum is definitely much weaker than BTC in this wave
The ETH/BTC rate is hovering at a low 0.0347, and the price is still below MA200 (2483) and EMA200 (2495)
Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $320 million last week, while Bitcoin ETFs had an outflow of $228 million; the redemption pressure on Ethereum is even heavier than on BTC
But when weakness reaches a certain point, it actually gives a reason for a catch-up rally
ETH/BTC rate is stuck at a low level, and short positions on Ethereum are also accumulating
If BTC can hold steady above 82,000 without falling, Ethereum's catch-up rally often comes suddenly when "everyone thinks it’s not going to make it"
BTC first sets the stage and stabilizes, then we see if Ethereum follows
The current macroeconomic situation is not ideal, and various issues remain unresolved, so we can't look too high
#BTC ETH $OP
Layer-2 competition is becoming increasingly important for Ethereum's future. Optimism's ecosystem strategy should be evaluated through developer retention, application activity, and the ability of participating chains to attract real users. More chains do not automatically mean stronger token demand. Sustainable growth requires useful applications, competitive transaction costs, and an economic model that creates lasting value beyond ecosystem expansion.【宇树涨了11%，空头倒贴钱，最大多头还被套着】
$UNITREE 24小时涨约10.94%，资金费率却连续两轮急转负值，累计约−0.21%。这意味着空头在向多头付费，做空一侧更拥挤了。但别急着喊轧空：负费率只能说明合约多空失衡，不能证明现货买盘有多强。
最大多头仍持有约629万美元仓位，均价89.46美元，浮亏约172万美元。眼下价格约69.8美元，离回本还有近22%。这笔仓位很大，却不能当成庄家一定会拉盘的证据。
物理 AI 大会提供了短线炒作窗口，但 UNITREE 永续合约并不等于真实股票，价格还受预言机和合约供需影响。我会重点看负费率能否持续、价格能否收复预言机折价，以及反弹时成交量是否跟上。若价格继续涨、空头持续付费，挤空可能延续；若费率回正、价格重新走弱，这波反弹就可能只是仓位博弈。After a sharp drop in the semiconductor sector, has there been a technical oversold rebound in the night session?
In this rebound, computing power, optical communication, and storage stocks are all rising, but this is more of an emotional recovery from the previous continuous decline and does not mean the overall trend has completely reversed.
This is actually a very typical oversold rebound in the data center industry chain. Instead of just looking at how much Nvidia $NVDA has risen, you can pay attention to the optical communication leaders $AAOI and $LUMN, as well as the storage giants $SKHY and Micron $MU following the rise.
The bottleneck of AI hardware has never been just the computing power chips themselves, but the transmission bandwidth and storage throughput capacity. Now, these supporting industry chains in the night session are moving faster than the main chips, indicating that capital is searching again for more cost-effective speculative targets in computing power cluster expansion.
The short-term expected oversold rebound sentiment may continue, but it will soon face the hard test of earnings season. Market doubts about the sustainability of big companies' AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) have not been completely dispelled.
If the upcoming earnings guidance fails to deliver data exceeding expectations, the current rebound can easily become a window for unloading funds trapped at high levels.
Market funds have not left the AI main theme but have become more selective and cautious, shifting from blindly speculating on concepts to a game of verifying concrete order fulfillment and performance.
DYORYesterday's short position has been closed, and the current price is near the starting point. CoinGlass current price BTC 82,630 (+1.04%), ETH 2,425 (+0.37%)
The funding rate is still positive, and positions are increasing along with the rebound. This is new long entry, not just short covering ending. Fear and Greed index at 60, BTC dominance at 60.2%. ETH's gain is only one-third of BTC's, relatively still weak.
Near-term liquidations: short positions are concentrated around 83,500 (about 42 million), then further up at 84,500 and 85,200; long positions are magnetized near $^_^79,300. So 83,500 is the level where this rebound is most easily absorbed and also most easily pushed back down.
Macro
The 10-year US Treasury yield is about 5.05% this morning, down from 5.31% on October 7, which is the direct reason for the rebound. September CPI is still 3.7% year-over-year, core at 2.6%, the data itself hasn't improved. The probability of a rate hike at the October 28 FOMC has dropped from about half when the data first came out to about 15%, with the market now betting on no change this month. This is a relief, not a new round of rally.
The short position from yesterday, those that should have been reduced near the low point have been reduced. If still holding at the rebound to 82,600, prioritize closing flat, do not add positions at the same level. 💥 Here's a painful truth: Last month when $ZEC surged to 1699, I was bullish all the way, but a fan secretly shorted behind my back and got liquidated with a $14,000 loss. Even now, thinking about it still hurts!
Why am I confident holding ZEC this time?
First, privacy is a hot trend this year, and ZEC is a truly decentralized project. It's one of the altcoins heavily held by Grayscale, and there are positive catalysts coming next month.
Second, a shakeout isn't a bad thing. Low-price chips have been sold off for almost a month. The position is too heavy to rally quickly; a healthy shakeout is necessary! I personally believe the 1050-1100 range in the short term is very likely the bottom.
Third, the daily chart already shows clear signs of stabilization and rebound. My approach is simple: build positions gradually in spot for mid-to-long term, hold contracts with low leverage for the long term, targeting 1700-2000.
Finally, a heartfelt word: In this market, many people pick the right direction, but even more die from leverage. That fan who got liquidated for $14,000 is a vivid example. I am optimistic about ZEC, but please hold only what you can afford to keep! Don't let a single shakeout wash you out.
【The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice】
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH? $HYPE founder posted a hiking photo, three people.
I only know him. The other two I have never seen before, and I thought they probably aren't ordinary people either. After checking, I found they are all top experts.
One is named Alexandr Wang, Chinese name Wang Tao. He dropped out of MIT at 19 and founded Scale AI. Now 29 years old, he oversees all AI at Meta.
The other is Scott Wu, founder of Cognition. The product he made is called Devin—the first AI engineer that can write code by itself. The company is valued at $10.2 billion.
What surprised me most is how they know each other. Not through business cooperation. In 2014, all three interned at the quantitative giant HRT. That year, only 10 people were recruited nationwide. But actually, they knew each other since high school through informatics olympiads. Jeff and Scott both won gold medals. So this is not a colleague circle, but a competition circle.
In 2002, PayPal was acquired by eBay. Those who left later created Tesla, SpaceX, YouTube. People call them the PayPal Mafia.
And this group is now being compared to the PayPal Mafia—the HRT Mafia.Explosive! Even with fireworks blazing, it can't fill the cash flow hole—I'm betting on a "crash" for SpaceX's earnings report!
After the U.S. market closes on October 20, SpaceX will release its first full Q3 earnings report since going public. The market was just ignited by the "flying Roadster," with sentiment at a high, but my prediction for the betting odds is cold-blooded: buy Yes.
Don't get me wrong, flying cars are cool, but that's Tesla's narrative, not SpaceX's profit statement. Yet the capital market has already valued SpaceX at a price-to-sales ratio once exceeding 100 times. The problem is, looking back at the old accounts: Starlink is the only consistently profitable segment, Starship is still burning through R&D expenses, with quarterly EBITDA losses exceeding 100 million; and behind new stories like AI computing power, quarterly capital expenditures are expected to reach as high as $19.3 billion, with free cash flow potentially suffering over $10 billion in consumption.
The market expects Q3 revenue between $12.9 billion and $13.8 billion. At this stage of massive investment, achieving both high revenue growth and significant profit improvement is as difficult as making a rocket save money while flying.
Concept-driven momentum might push the stock price before the market opens, but fireworks of sentiment fear hard-core cash flow the most. As long as the earnings report shows even slightly conservative numbers on Starship progress or AI computing monetization, or operating losses exceed expectations, the pressure to pull back will immediately surface.
So I won't chase this wave of hype. A hundredfold price-to-sales ratio relies not on fireworks, but on solid financial realization. This time, I'm betting Yes. #SpaceXFirstFullQuarterlyReportSinceIPOWillBeRevealed $SPCX #TSMCQ3RecordProfit 积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 The earnings report is very impressive, with AI computing power demand continuously materializing, and 2nm successfully contributing to revenue; however, growth heavily depends on AI clients, and combined with the cost and geopolitical pressures from building factories in the US, the risks behind high growth cannot be ignored.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 US September CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, but Walsh refused to preview a rate hike at the IMF annual meeting, lowering the probability of a rate hike in October to around 15%—the macro environment offers a breather, not a pivot, with year-end rate hike pricing still hanging at 90%.
Funds are not "running," they are "hiding": BTC market share surged to 59.92%, becoming the only red asset in the market. There is locked-in support above 81,000, selling pressure indicators have reached historical extremes, whales are accumulating, but daily trading volume has shrunk to $6.8 billion, the base is solid but there is no new fuel.
ETH fell below 2400, whales are redeeming stakes, sending 95,000 tokens to CEX at a loss, supply is looser than BTC; SOL broke below 103 relying on psychological support, ETF outflows hit a record 25.52 million in a single week; OKB retraced to 114, scarcity of supply does not constitute short-term buying pressure; RE dropped 4.6%, thin liquidity was crushed by sector beta.
The other four are all waiting for BTC to bring back trading volume. Don't reason in thin markets during low volume periods.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 宏观面：沃什的“留白”为市场赢得了喘息窗口
这是当前最重要的边际变化。美联储主席沃什在曼谷IMF年会上的讲话，没有释放任何10月加息的信号，并明确表示不会预判利率决策。市场对10月加息的预期概率应声从逾25%降至15%以下，美元指数随之走弱。
但需要清醒看待这一“利好”的性质：它更像是一次预期的“重置”，而非趋势的“转向”。10月FOMC维持利率不变的概率仍约为70%，但这一预期在近期已出现边际走弱的迹象。市场基准判断仍是：比特币短期将以8万美元为核心支撑继续筑底，在缺乏明显上行催化的情况下，更可能在8万至8.5万美元区间内震荡。
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？