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#MetaQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, huge AI investment raises concerns ✅ Highlights: Revenue exceeds expectations - Q3 total revenue $64.601 billion, up 26% year-over-year, higher than Wall Street consensus of about $63.35 billion, a record high - Growth core remains advertising business: advertising revenue $63.061 billion, up 25.9% year-over-year, ad impressions +10%, average price per ad +14%, volume and price both rising; Family of Apps daily active users 3.64 billion, up 3% year-over-year, the base remains solid - Q4 revenue guidance $73~76 billion, also exceeding market expectations; diluted EPS $3.83, a significant year-over-year increase (this high YoY growth mainly due to high tax rate and low base last year) ⚠️ Market concerns core: AI capital expenditure sharply increased, cash flow under pressure 1. Raised full-year capital expenditure guidance to $135~145 billion, funds mainly invested in GPU/self-developed AI chip clusters, hyperscale data centers, high-speed interconnect and network infrastructure, representing heavy investment in the AI computing power arms race 2. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time since listing, about -$2.12 billion this quarter, meaning operating cash flow generated by the advertising cash cow can no longer cover huge AI infrastructure spending, market begins to question: with continuous massive investment, when will the corresponding AI commercialization returns be realized 3. Operating profit $12.988 billion, down 37% year-over-year,#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings The structural shift toward AI infrastructure is proving to be a game-changer for SK hynix. With HBM capacity essentially booked out and general-purpose DRAM supply tightening as a result, operating margins near 80% don't seem out of reach. All eyes will be on their HBM4 roadmap and yield progress during the Oct 28 call—if execution stays flawless, this quarter could set a high bar for the entire memory sector.#October FOMC Approaches, What Are the Variables for the Fed's Pause on Rate Hikes? 📊 Data Tug-of-War: Stubborn Inflation vs Cooling Employment The direct support for pausing rate hikes comes from employment, but the constraint comes from inflation. September's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, showing a clear weakening in labor market momentum. However, September's CPI year-over-year rebounded to 3.7%, core CPI year-over-year at 2.6%, both exceeding expectations, indicating inflationary pressures have not eased. DWS's assessment accurately summarizes this deadlock: inflation is "neither accelerating nor clearly retreating toward the target," while the labor market "provides a reasonable but not strong rationale for holding steady this month." 🎭 Internal Divisions: Hawkish Undercurrents Beneath a Dovish Facade Fed Chair Powell's October 16 speech was widely interpreted by the market as dovish; he refused to forecast the rate path, directly causing the probability of a rate hike to plummet from about 27% to below 15%. But this is essentially a shift in communication framework rather than a substantive softening of policy stance. A deeper variable lies in significant divisions within the FOMC. Governor Waller acknowledges further hikes are needed but suggests they need not be consecutive; Vice Chair Jefferson advocates patience, while Cleveland Fed President Mester and several other officials remain concerned about inflation's stubbornness. Former Vice Chair Quarles bluntly stated the Fed's next move is "more likely to be a hike than a pause." This division means the "pause" merely postpones the decision pressure. ⚡ Political Variable: White House Pressure and the Tension of Fed Independence Political factors con🔥 October 23 Evening Report Due to the ongoing tensions in the Gulf region and Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries, Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is transmitting to the global economy, driving up production, service, and commodity costs, further embedding inflationary pressures into the economic system, and potentially increasing the risk of economic slowdown, thereby limiting market liquidity, especially funds flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Darkfost points out that from a long-term perspective, when Brent crude consistently stays above the annual average and enters a strong upward trend, BTC tends to slow down; conversely, when oil prices drop sharply, BTC is more likely to recover. However, he emphasizes that this does not imply a simple direct causal relationship between oil prices and BTC; what truly affects risk assets is the macroeconomic environment accompanying high oil prices. In July this year, oil prices briefly fell, giving BTC an opportunity to rise, but Brent crude has since clearly rebounded. Although funds may still rotate between different markets, driving BTC to continue its upward momentum, the current macro environment is not conducive to sustained new liquidity inflows into the market. Popular topics in the market community #HSBC phased launch of the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin RedCoin, with 20 related articles.
An increase in popularity means more people are discussing it, but it does not mean that the funds involved in the discussion will necessarily flow to a certain token. Directly applying technology, stocks, or social news to concept coins with the same name often lacks verifiable business relationships.
Under the same narrative, projects may only be similar in name, or they may indeed share customers, revenue, or technical needs. These differences cannot be smoothed over with a single concept label. Even if there is a connection, whether business revenue belongs to the token is another matter.
I do not take trending rankings as a reason to buy. Only when the new demand can be clearly explained is there a basis to discuss the beneficiaries.
$BTCAfter watching the liquidation map, my palms are a bit sweaty: BTC is hovering around 81700, with 394 million evaporated across the entire network in the past 24 hours, 86% of which is long positions' blood. The largest single liquidation of 7.92 million was triggered at 81661, the bulls are really tough. The liquidation pileup basically means the price zone where liquidation orders cluster. Once the price touches this area, stop-losses and liquidations stampede together, pushing the market further with this fuel. Currently, BTC is squeezed between two high-pressure lines: overhead at 83500, where bears trigger chain liquidations forcing the price to surge further; and below at 81000, where breaking this level triggers chain liquidations, opening the floodgates around 80000. Tonight, PMI and consumer confidence reports loom like two bombs; no one dares to take heavy positions before the results, so volatility will only increase.#MetaQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, massive AI investment raises concerns On the surface, revenue looks strong at $64.6 billion, up 26% year-over-year, and the advertising cash machine is still going strong. But the market simply isn't buying it, with the stock price dropping 7% straight away. Why? Because everyone saw an extremely frightening number.
The latest filings show that Meta's future lease and non-cancellable contract commitments have soared to about $825 billion! That's over $100 billion more than disclosed in July. What is this money for? It's all being poured into AI infrastructure—buying cards, building data centers, and powering them.
As a result, Meta's five-year CDS spread has jumped to 116 basis points, a record high. What does this mean? It indicates that even bond market investors are starting to panic, feeling that Meta is nearly draining its long-term financial safety net to push AI, increasing credit risk.
This has a very direct impact on our BTC.
First, global liquidity is still being drained to the limit. Meta's multi-hundred-billion-dollar contracts mean the world's core capital is locked into AI infrastructure. This is why the 10-year US Treasury yield has stubbornly stayed above 5%, and BTC is suffocated at the 80,000 level. The money is all tied up by giants building computing power centers, with no spillover into the crypto space.
Second, market sentiment is shifting. From Microsoft's restraint to Meta's reckless spending, if the AI return cycle drags on too long, the valuation logic of tech stocks will be re-evaluated. $META $BTC According to ChainCatcher, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to ongoing tensions in the Gulf region and Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries, Brent crude oil remains above $100 per barrel. Rising oil prices push up production, service, and commodity costs, increasing inflation and economic slowdown risks, which may limit market liquidity and funds flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Darkfost pointed out that in the long term, when Brent crude oil consistently stays above the annual average and rises strongly, $BTC tends to slow down; when oil prices drop sharply, BTC is more likely to recover. He emphasized that the relationship between oil prices and BTC is not a simple direct causality; what affects risk assets is the macro environment accompanying high oil prices. After a brief dip in oil prices in July this year, BTC had an opportunity to rise, but Brent crude oil subsequently rebounded significantly. Funds may still rotate between markets, driving BTC to continue its upward trend, but the current macro environment is unfavorable for sustained new liquidity inflows into the market.According to market data on October 23, $BTC and $ETH are both under macro pressure, but there are key differences in funding and technical structure: BTC is testing the critical support of the institutional cost line, while ETH shows contradictory signals of short-term capital inflow despite a bearish technical outlook.
📉 Macro Suppression: Risk Assets Under Collective Pressure
The main reason for the current decline is not internal to the crypto market but the worsening external macro environment. The escalation in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude oil above $110, reigniting inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq fell due to tech stock sell-offs, US inflation reached 3.7%, and market expectations for the October 28 FOMC meeting to maintain high interest rates have intensified, causing capital to withdraw from crypto and other risk assets. The crypto fear and greed index has dropped sharply from 68 (greed) to 50 (neutral).
🔵 BTC: Holding Firm at the $80,000 "Institutional Cost Line"
• Key Support: The $80,000–$80,878 range is viewed by multiple institutions as the average holding cost for Bitcoin spot ETFs and listed companies. The intraday low dipped to $80,961 before rebounding, temporarily holding support.
• Funding: Capital is still flowing out. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot net outflow was $354 million, contract net outflow was $1.222 billion, totaling $1.576 billion; the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $635 million, with BlackRock IBIT accounting for $254 million. However, funding rates remain slightly positive, with no extreme crowding in longs or shorts.
• Technicals: Resistance above lies between $84,000–$84,500, with key support at $82,500. If $82,500 breaks, a further test of $70,000 is possible; if it can reclaim and break through $87,000, the upside space will open.
🔷 ETH: Tug of War Between Bearish Technicals and Capital Inflow
• Bearish Technicals: The 1-hour ADX indicator at 33.90 shows short-term trend strength is bearish, with moving averages across all periods in a bearish alignment. The top five bid-ask depth ratio is only 0.33, indicating dominant selling pressure, with sell orders concentrated at $2,412.47 reaching 98.8%. Key support is at $2,360.21, resistance at $2,448.46.
• Divergent Funding: Unlike BTC, ETH shows signs of short-term capital replenishment. In the past 24 hours, ETH spot net inflow was $27.16 million, and the most recent 1-hour contract inflow was $80.91 million; some analysts believe "ETH will be more resilient than BTC tonight." However, this is not a reversal signal, as the 24-hour contract still shows a net outflow of $896 million overall, and the ETH spot ETF also had a single-day net outflow of $110 million, with cumulative scale still under pressure.
• Fundamentals: Ethereum staking remains high at about 44 million ETH, but the network upgrade (Glamsterdam test) has been delayed, lacking strong short-term catalysts.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧
#存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 Bitcoin’s failure to hold a rebound above $84,000 is not an isolated crypto story. It is the visible edge of a broader risk-asset repricing, where weakness in US technology shares, macro pressure and crypto-specific selling are reinforcing one another. On 22 October, the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, the S&P 500 lost 1.21% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped roughly 6.7%. Tech stocks absorbed the main selling, and speculative assets felt the same pull. $BTC The puzzling part is the flow data. BFirst, correct a common pitfall regarding timing: The Federal Reserve interest rate decision corresponds to 2:00 AM Beijing time on October 29, with Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM. On the same day in the evening, the US Q3 GDP preliminary data and September PCE data will be released, with PCE coming after the rate decision. The early morning rally could be reversed by the inflation data released that night. Additionally, on October 29, there will be Bitcoin network difficulty adjustment, MSTR Q3 earnings report, and from October 29 to 30, the Bank of Japan's rate decision. These events cluster in the same window, which will significantly amplify volatility. Therefore, the core of position management is not to guess the decision but to survive the spikes during these three days.
First, identify key price levels and set stop losses around these points. The key resistance above is $82,500, followed by the 20-day Bollinger Band middle line at about $83,300. Higher up, $86,700 is a dense area of trapped positions from 6 to 12 months ago, and $85,000 to $87,500 is a futures liquidation cluster. On the downside, if $81,100 is clearly broken, watch $80,500 first, then $80,000 and the $79,694 to $79,800 support zone. If these do not hold, the bearish pattern will become more evident. $79,600 is a liquidation cluster for leveraged longs, $77,600 is the real market average cost. Around $80,000 is also the average cost of corporate treasuries; if broken, these companies could become underwater again, historically possibly triggering net selling. #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 AAOI This stock I bought yesterday, and it gave me a 12-point gain overnight, with a low touching 66.28. Honestly, the moment I was watching the market, the only thought in my mind was: paid tuition to the market again. But if you look closely, it wasn’t the only one that crashed yesterday; Coherent dropped over 12%, Lumentum fell more than 9%, and the entire optical communication sector was dragged down collectively by Intel and Broadcom’s warnings about AI capital expenditures. AAOI’s fundamentals themselves didn’t blow up; orders for 800G and 1.6T are still there, with initial 1.6T orders exceeding $200 million, and production capacity is planned to expand from 200,000 units per month to 650,000 units. The logic hasn’t broken. This morning before the market opened, it followed the sector’s recovery, rising more than 3 points, somewhat filling the pit from last night. I didn’t sell, not because I’m stubborn, but because I think that big bearish candle yesterday looked more like a sector-wide emotional stampede, not a falsification of the individual stock’s logic. But the resistance zone from 75 to 90 is still pressing down on it, and whether the rebound can continue with volume is the key. I’m holding at this position but not adding; I’ll wait for it to come out on its own, just don’t buy at the emotional high like I did. #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 Why is $BTC so sluggish right now, neither going up nor down? What's holding it back?
On the macro side, there are pressures: the Middle East, oil prices, and inflation expectations make the market cautious; on the other hand, there's cost support around 80,000 that many are watching closely. If it breaks below, panic could ensue, so the bulls are defending it. The result is that it can't rise, nor can it fall sharply.
Technically, it's awkward: resistance lies between 82,800–83,200, support is around 81,000, and the price is just oscillating in between. Short-term is weak, but the mid-term structure isn't broken, so neither bulls nor bears are dominating.
On the funding side, ETFs are still seeing inflows, but the pace has clearly slowed down. It's a case of some support but no strong push. Market liquidity is thin, with few large orders, so the price tends to hover in place.
Additionally, there was a big wave of long positions recently that got shaken out, so now everyone is waiting and watching for new information. This "sluggishness" isn't without reason; it's a stalemate caused by macro factors, technicals, funding, and sentiment all together. Next, it depends on whether 80,000 holds, if 83,000 can be broken, and what direction the Fed and data provide.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ In short: Q3 performance is very likely to be strong, but not driven by HBM4; the real profit elasticity of HBM4 will be seen in Q4.
On October 28, the market consensus expects: revenue of about 98.2 trillion KRW, operating profit of 76.96 trillion KRW, operating margin close to 78%, potentially setting a new single-quarter high, but the profit increase mainly comes from price hikes in general DRAM/NAND, not from large-scale volume growth of HBM4.10.23 BTC
The market consensus is basically that the Federal Reserve will hold steady in October, with no surprises.
But don’t jump to the conclusion that a “pause in rate hikes” means the bull market has started; this is just a hawkish pause, not a policy shift. The Fed’s hands may stop, but its mouth won’t loosen.
Currently, the Fed is in a classic dilemma: on one side, employment data continues to cool, long-term US Treasury yields are rising, and financial conditions have tightened passively. Raising rates further risks crushing the economy and debt.
On the other side, core inflation remains sticky and still far from the 2% target. Easing now would undo all previous efforts, so the Fed can only pause, observe, and take it step by step.
What can truly stir the market are four hidden variables:
First, if core PCE and wages rebound again, inflation stickiness will exceed expectations, and December rate hike expectations will immediately heat up.
Second, escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could push oil prices higher, reigniting inflation pressures at any time.
Third, if the market interprets the Fed as dovish and long-term rates fall easing financial conditions, the Fed will likely turn hawkish to suppress expectations.
Fourth, if this meeting keeps the door open for a year-end rate hike, the pause is just a halftime break, not the end of the rate hike cycle.
For the crypto community, don’t treat the “pause in rate hikes” as a bullish signal to blindly chase the market.
What truly determines the trajectory of BTC and ETH is Powell’s hawkish or dovish tone in his post-meeting speech and changes in December rate hike expectations.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Someone in the group asked me whether they should get into on-chain options. Taking a responsible approach, I specifically researched it and found that, up to now, the trading volume of on-chain options is still less than 1% of the perpetual DEX trading volume. Although there are reports that, driven by Hyperliquid, the trading scale is expected to reach the $5 billion level, it hasn't reached that point yet.
So the current situation is quite intriguing. Perpetual contracts already have mature users, but on-chain options still need to solve issues like pricing, liquidity, margin, and complex operations. Even if the infrastructure is already mature, it doesn't mean the users are mature as well. After all, options are truly a deep subject; just the bunch of Greek letters alone should be enough to discourage many people. Given the existence of perpetuals, I don't think ordinary users currently have enough reason to take on this complex risk.The chip concentration indicator, after $BTC surged to 84800 the day before yesterday and fell below 81000 last night, has not yet reversed.
Currently, the concentration is still rising, reaching 15.29% today.
A simple analysis:
During the uptrend, chip dispersion is easy to understand: at high levels, some people keep selling to take profits, new funds are buying at the top, holding costs spread out, and concentration rises.
But during the downtrend, it continues to rise, which is a relatively strong signal, not a bearish one.
Normally, if it were a pure sell-off crash: the high-level trapped positions would be locked, the buying at the bottom would disappear, the chip range would contract, and the indicator should quickly fall and reverse.
Now it has dropped, but chips are still dispersing, indicating that during the decline, a large amount of bottom-fishing funds are entering in batches at different price levels to acquire chips, the cost bands are further spread, and the long-short divergence continues to widen without forming a consensus trap.
In other words, many still believe that yesterday's drop is a range shock, not a collapse.
The decline is supported, the rise has turnover; this is the current scenario, stuck between 80000 and 85000. Until breaking through these two critical points to usher in a real direction.Conclusion first: The key point of the October 28 decision is not whether to raise interest rates, but what Powell will say about December. The market generally leans toward holding rates steady in October and raising them in December. A simple pause may not be positive; the direction depends on subsequent tightening guidance. Also, note the timing: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision is usually in the afternoon of October 28 Eastern Time, corresponding to around 2 a.m. Beijing Time on October 29. The press conference is at 2:30 a.m., and that same evening, the US third-quarter GDP preliminary figure and September PCE data will be released. Since the PCE data comes after the rate decision, the early morning rally could be reversed by the inflation data that night.
Three scenarios and corresponding signals
Scenario 1: Hold steady but with hawkish guidance (higher probability)
The performance is BTC first slightly rebounds, then is suppressed and falls back by the "high probability of a rate hike in December". The signal to watch is real interest rates and the US dollar; if both strengthen simultaneously and BTC falls along with the Nasdaq, it indicates risk asset logic dominates. Operationally, it is not recommended to heavily bet on a rebound before the decision. If the rebound reaches the 82,500 to 83,300 range but volume is insufficient and the upward momentum is weak, it can be seen as an opportunity to reduce positions or short, with a stop loss set slightly above 84,000. Bitfire considers 82,500 USD an important resistance, followed by the 20-day Bollinger Band middle track at about 83,300 USD. Unless bulls quickly reclaim the middle track, the lower band support may be tested again.
Scenario 2: Direct rate hike or release of strong tightening signals
This is the most damaging to BTC because BTC is essentially a zero-yield asset highly sensitive to real interest rates; a rate hike will push up real interest rates and the US dollarI just checked the long-short ratio of perpetual $ETH on OKX, which surged to 3.03 this morning, a level not seen for several days.
This means that in ETH perpetual accounts, about three out of four are long. It hasn't dropped much by noon.
At first, I thought ETH was rising and everyone was chasing it. But looking at the price, it has been grinding down since yesterday morning, dropping more than 3%. Yet, during the same period, longs actually increased by about 36,000 contracts.
The big money hasn't followed. The top 5% of accounts by position size have a long-short ratio of 0.84, leaning short.
So on the ETH side, the more it falls, the more small accounts are crowding into longs, while the big money is still on the other side. With such crowding, I don't think this can last long. If by this time tomorrow the OKX ETH ratio is still above 2.8, then count me wrong about this group.
Just to reconcile, I said yesterday that if BTC's ratio dropped below 1.2, I'd be wrong. At noon today, it's 2.17, no touch, so I'll keep that statement for now. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ If you want to go long on Ethereum, actually the volatility of BMNR is a bit better than Ethereum because it has greater volatility. And if you leverage Ethereum 4x, you might only need to leverage BMNR 3x, which allows for higher capital efficiency and pays less in fees. Pays less in fees. Today's market gives me a strange feeling
It doesn't really drop when it falls
No one ignites it when it rallies
After checking the options, I get it
Today is the options expiration day
$SOL
This coin is the most interesting
Price only dropped a bit over 1 point
Positions lost nearly 3 points
Shorts are quietly taking profits
If 102 breaks again, don't touch it
If it rebounds but can't get above 103, short directly
Stop loss above 104.5
Target first looks at the 100 integer level
If 100 is hit the first time, you can take a short-term long to play
Stop loss below 99, target to see a return to 103
$BTC
The biggest pain point expiring today is stuck at 82500
Current price is below it
It's like a big magnet hanging overhead
Most likely to try to go up during the day
I'm holding my 84500 short with floating profit, not running 💪
Plan is to add shorts on a rebound between 82400 and 82500
Stop loss above 82800
Target first looks at 81000 then the 80000 integer level
Only one situation I admit defeat
If it stands above 82800 and holds for half an hour
Then I'll withdraw the short first
$ETH
The biggest pain point expiring today is at 2440
Current price is also below it
The script is the same as BTC
Rebound between 2430 and 2440 is a short point
Stop loss at 2470
Target 2350 then 2300
If it breaks below 2350 and can't rebound
You can follow the short directly without waiting
There are two data releases around 9 PM tonight
I won't act half an hour before the release
Wait for the shoe to drop before deciding
Writing the plan makes me feel at ease
The rest is up to the market 🍵#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The A-share bear market widely discussed in the English-speaking community is actually based on the technical indicator triggered by a 20% retracement of the CSI 300, which is a typical phenomenon-level label.
The current market characteristic is that after a prior gradual decline, it has most likely entered a phase of oscillating bottoming.
In this kind of market, one cannot expect a one-sided trending rise; the strength of rebounds is constrained by the degree of market confidence and liquidity recovery.
Strategically, expectations for trending markets must be lowered.
If a sudden negative event causes a sharp volume-driven drop during the oscillation period, it actually creates a safety margin, providing better entry points for subsequent swing trading.
Whether in A-shares or U.S. stocks, patience at this stage is more important than blind attacks. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The U.S. earnings season has just reached its peak, and Wall Street is already breaking the mold!
Among the 111 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, 83% have exceeded market expectations.
Logically, this should be very positive news.
However, the Nasdaq plunged 2.6%, with tech stocks being the hardest hit!
Meta clearly delivered better-than-expected results, yet its stock price fell 7%. Tesla's cash flow turned positive, but it also couldn't avoid a decline.
I think this earnings season has already sent a very dangerous signal.
Wall Street is no longer satisfied with how much profit companies make; instead, it is re-evaluating whether these companies' valuations are justified!
Especially in the AI sector, in the past, simply announcing increased investment was enough for the market to assign high valuations.
Now, with growing investments, investors are starting to worry whether future profits can cover the costs.
This also affects the crypto space.
On October 22, as tech stocks were sold off, $BTC also dropped to around $82,000.
This indicates that when capital begins to reduce risk exposure, both the U.S. stock market and the crypto market can be impacted.
I believe the biggest risk this earnings season is that although corporate performance is good, the market is no longer willing to pay high valuations!
With tech giants set to report earnings one after another, market volatility is likely to increase further!Research institutions are optimistic about "platform-type assets." Does $HYPE fit this logic?
Recently, a research institution proposed a viewpoint: speculative demand will be a long-term theme for the next decade. Instead of buying tradable assets, it's better to buy platforms that provide trading and clearing services. Applying this logic to HYPE, there are many fitting aspects.
Essentially, it is trading infrastructure. The more active the market and the more frequent the turnover, the steadier the fee revenue. Regardless of which direction retail investors bet on, the platform takes a cut—this is the business of selling shovels. The market valuation already includes a component priced according to platform logic, rather than ordinary tokens. But the mismatched aspects must also be clarified.
First, the value capture of traditional platform-type assets relies on equity. There are institutional guarantees on how profits are distributed and accounts are calculated. The rights arrangement for token holders follows a different set of rules, so the capture efficiency is questionable.
Second, the premise of platform-type assets is a sustainable moat. The competitive barrier for on-chain trading is lower than traditional exchanges, so market share may be diluted by new technologies.
Third, the regulatory status is not yet established. Traditional clearinghouses derive their status from licenses, while HYPE’s compliance position is still forming.
Therefore, this logic can be used as a reference but cannot be copied directly. $HYPE is a prototype of platform-type assets. Being a prototype means the direction is correct but the work is not yet complete. $UNITREE Why is it surging so sharply?
1️⃣ Rising heat in the robotics sector
The commercialization expectations for humanoid robots combined with policy catalysts have refocused market funds on the robotics and AI sectors.
2️⃣ Short squeezes accelerate as shorts get trapped
Smart money data shows short positions around $3.54 million and long positions about $2.66 million. The average short price is 86.11, but the price has surged to 95.17, putting clear pressure on shorts. A concentrated short covering could further amplify volatility.
3️⃣ Negative funding rate increases shorting costs
The current funding rate is negative, meaning shorts pay funding fees to longs under this contract's rules. If it remains negative, the cost of holding short positions will further increase.
Avoid chasing the high; focus on pullbacks around 87.89. After stabilization, consider light long positions with an initial target of 96. #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧
Meta's latest Q3 earnings report shows a typical divergence of strong revenue growth but profit pressure. Quarterly revenue reached $51.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year surge, with advertising as the resilient core business. Overall revenue significantly exceeded market expectations, and the fundamental growth momentum remains robust.
However, the market did not respond positively, with the core issue being the massive AI heavy-asset investments. This quarter, Meta's capital expenditures soared, with vast funds continuously poured into AI computing power, model development, and infrastructure expansion. These high investments directly squeezed profit margins and dragged down free cash flow. Coupled with tax expenses, net profit sharply declined year-over-year, fully exposing the cost of the AI cash-burning model.
The market's biggest current concern is very real: AI investment is a bottomless pit, but commercial returns are far off. Continuous high-intensity cash burn extends the profit recovery cycle and greatly reduces future earnings certainty.
The logic of the current tech sector has completely changed: it no longer simply chases high revenue growth but places more emphasis on investment efficiency, cash flow quality, and realized returns. Short-term earnings gains are offset by huge AI costs, risk aversion is rising, and volatility in the tech growth sector is intensifying.
The market is voting with its feet: although AI dividends are large, blind heavy bets and investing without delivering results ultimately cannot support high valuations.
$META #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Google Cloud's 82% high growth indicates that AI investments have already achieved commercial implementation, leveraging TPU+Gemini's full-stack advantages to secure a large number of long-term orders and significantly improve profit margins; however, this is a capital-intensive business with massive capital expenditures suppressing cash flow. The current impressive cloud profits have not yet covered the full-chain R&D and ongoing expansion costs. Whether the high growth dividend can continue and withstand the industry's price war remains the biggest mid-to-long-term challenge.The higher crude oil prices rise, the more oil-producing countries earn
But the global economy may not necessarily improve
When oil prices rise above $100
It's the same oil price increase 📈
Some people make a fortune
While others have to pay the bill
If oil prices keep rising
Businesses and consumers might reduce oil consumption
Economic activity could also be affected
In the end
High oil prices might actually suppress oil demand
So crude oil prices don't necessarily get better the higher they go
Another point worth noting
If this round of increase mainly comes from Middle East supply risks
Then oil prices are not just a supply and demand issue
We also have to see if the situation will continue to deteriorate
Once the risk eases
The premium the market added for geopolitical conflicts
Could quickly fade
So, Script Brother thinks
What’s most worth watching in this crude oil market
Is not how much higher it can go
But whether high oil prices will eventually hurt the economy
If it really gets to that point
Then it’s not just crude oil’s own market
The US stock market, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policies
And even Bitcoin could be affected
If oil prices stay above $100 for a long time 📈
Which do you think will break first: the global economy and stock markets
Or the Fed’s expectations for rate cuts? $BTC #MetaQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, massive AI investments raise concerns
The largest public pension fund in the US has significantly reduced holdings in the seven tech giants. Are institutions no longer optimistic about tech stocks?
The largest US public pension fund reduced its holdings in Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and $TSLA by 26% in the first half of 2026, stating that public equity market valuations are at relatively high levels and relative returns may be under pressure.
However, I believe that reduction does not mean the "seven tech giants" are dead; there is still a short-term rebound window, but the golden era of "easy-win concentrated bets" is over.
Next week, the earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are key catalysts—if capital expenditure guidance remains strong and profit margins do not deteriorate significantly, the market may quickly recover; if free cash flow continues to be pressured, the rebound will be a trap.
Rebound logic and risk hedging:
· Technically, the market is near oversold, and institutional reductions mostly occurred in the first half, so short-term selling pressure is marginally weakening.
· If macro conditions see oil prices fall and the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance, risk appetite could quickly rebound.
· But concentration risk is real (Mag7 weights remain high), and private equity diversion means "incremental funds" in the public market will no longer chase prices unconditionally.
Looking ahead:
There is a short-term technical rebound opportunity, especially if earnings reports are "not bad"; mid-term requires accepting valuation digestion and capital rebalancing.
Apple is relatively resilient, while $META, Nvidia, and Amazon have deeper declines.
Rebound priority is on Apple and Microsoft, with Nvidia needing earnings to verify data center demand resilience.AI panic hit the money-burning accounts, tonight it's the turn of the credit card accounts.
American Express (AXP) will release its Q3 earnings report tonight at 7 PM, 7 AM Eastern pre-market.
The market expects EPS of $4.50 and revenue of $20.12 billion; last year EPS was $4.14.
Q2 Amex EPS was $4.53, beating expectations, with credit card spending at $455.8 billion, up 9% year-over-year, and card fee income hitting a record.
But expenses are rising faster than revenue: Q2 expenses +12%, Platinum card annual fee raised to $895, and benefit redemption costs are eating into profits.
The stock price is down 14% this year, 17% below the 52-week high of $384.89, stuck in the $296.28–$335.52 range for 40 days.
AI panic hit the "borrow money to burn computing power" logic, but Amex is a perfect contrast: wealthy people are still spending, indicating the consumer side hasn't collapsed.
I think the real watershed of earnings season is tonight's credit card data: high-income groups still dare to spend, AI panic is just emotional overreaction.
Invalidation point: if credit card growth drops below 5%, or bad debt provisions increase significantly, then the consumer side really has problems, and this judgment is void.
Tonight, which side are you betting on: will the stock price break above the $335.52 range after earnings, or fall back below $300?
$AXP $V $MA
#USStockEarnings #Q3EarningsSeasonToday's top gainer +15%, top loser -12%, same day, same group of people involved. Conclusion: It's not a general drop, but leverage positions on high beta assets being liquidated one by one.
$ENA 0.1981, -7.8%, market cap 2.66 billion. On 11/2, 172 million tokens will unlock, don't go all in before the unlock, breaking 0.19 would look even worse.
$NEAR 4.87, -8.4%, market cap 6.4 billion. Open interest dropped faster than price, that's liquidation, not selling pressure.
$PUMP 0.00456, -11.9%, market cap 2.1 billion, down 19% this month. The 0.45% platform fee added on 10/17 didn't catch the hype.
Today's top gainer on the leaderboard, MemeCore, rose 15%, but 24h volume is only 3 million USD, judge the leaderboard's value yourself. The leaderboard is for the bold, not for those who can hold.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The real profit logic of HBM4: not in "volume increase", but in "price rise" and long-term contract price lock
The most direct lever for HBM4 to boost profits is pricing rather than shipment volume. Samsung has set the HBM4 price at about $4 per GB in the mid-to-high range, more than twice the approximately $1.5 of HBM3E; TrendForce predicts that driven by the dual factors of increased HBM4 share and supply shortage, the average HBM selling price will rise 121% next year compared to this year, while Citi expects a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 30% in HBM ASP in Q4 2026. As the HBM leader, SK Hynix's profit elasticity core lies in the unit price jump brought by the HBM4 generation switch, rather than simple bit shipment growth. 我刚翻欧易 ETH 永续的多空人数比，今早冲到3.03，往前翻好几天都没这么高。
这意味散户“越跌越买”，但价格昨早至今回撤超3%，持仓反增3.6万枚，典型散户接盘、主力观望。前5%账户仓位多空比仅0.84偏空，“大钱在对面”与近期宏观共振：初请失业金19.4万（逼近57年低位），美债高位“更高更久”压制，10月FOMC（静默期）预期明牌，纳指重挫2.6%拖累风险资产。
BTC坚守8万但8-8.3万多空反复插针（前期多单6.92亿/空单10.25亿），ETH站2400跑输大盘，2440成铁顶，现货ETF净流出叠加多头清算集中。BTC人数比今午2.17，散户亦偏多但较理性。ETH人数比若明仍站2.8上，散户拥挤交易或引连环清算，下探风险大；8万关口多次测试支撑渐弱，失守或触发新多单清算带下探78000。前日“大师”100x爆仓警示高杠杆极危，控仓留子弹，现货定投优于合约赌博，落袋为安，不构成投资建议$BTC $ETH $ZEC $UNITREE A-share Yushu hit the 20cm daily limit today, closing at 624 yuan. $UNITREE perpetual futures followed with a 21% surge, reaching 93 dollars.
Interestingly, the funding rate just settled at -1%, hitting the cap, meaning shorts are paying longs.
Despite the limit-up, some are still aggressively shorting, possibly betting on the A-share market being closed over the weekend and the perpetual futures retracing first in the 7×24 cycle.
Don't forget it opened at 1100 on the first day, and after hitting the limit-up, it still dropped by more than 40%.$BTC The short positions on Bitcoin all took profits yesterday, right? 🤑🤑🤑
80,000 remains a strong support!! Besides the market itself being weak during yesterday's drop, another reason was a large outflow of ETF funds!
A massive sell-off pushed Bitcoin down to 80,888.
Sister Xi previously analyzed with everyone that before the US midterm elections, funds would choose to flee for safety.
The election outcome is unknown, and different leaders will have completely different regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies.
If policies tighten, Bitcoin could easily plunge. Big investors don’t want to gamble on this luck or take that risk, so they sell Bitcoin first to lock in profits, which is what we call risk aversion.
So where did the funds go?
They switched to US dollars!
When the market panics, everyone thinks the US dollar is the safest and least likely to lose value. So everyone sells volatile assets like Bitcoin and holds dollars, which keeps the US Dollar Index stable in the high range of 101–103.
Bitcoin is still weak intraday but has rebound opportunities. For going long, short-term swing trades are recommended, with 82,300 as the resistance level. ETH at $2400, the upgrade got delayed, can you still hold on?
The entire network has been waiting for the Glamsterdam upgrade for three months, and now it’s postponed with the reason being "discovered 13 contract risks." The $2400 level has been tested repeatedly, and ETFs have seen $1 billion outflow in a month—but just as everyone was ready to cut losses, staking quietly hit an all-time high. Is this the last shakeout before all the good news is priced in, or the starting point of an accelerated bear market decline?
First, look at the surface: bad news hits hard, but the price didn’t crash.
ETH is oscillating between 2380-2405, and the $2400 you see is basically the real-time price. It dropped from 2500, showing overall weakness over 30 days, still far from the August 2025 ATH of 4950. The daily RSI is 40, neutral to slightly weak, not oversold. Price is below short-term moving averages, 4-hour chart is bearish, but daily chart shows support near the 100-day EMA at 2355-2362. All indicators are saying one thing: direction is undecided, don’t rush to bet.
But wait.
Are you sure the upgrade delay is just a "technical issue"? Are you sure ETF outflows mean "institutions are bearish"?
First: Is the upgrade delay bad news or "defusing a bomb"?
The Glamsterdam upgrade, originally scheduled for activation on the Hoodi testnet on October 26, was halted by ChainSecurity and others—EIP-8037/8038 gas rule changes might affect at least 13 real smart contracts. No new date yet, and the mainnet schedule for early December is also uncertain.
Sounds scary?
But think from another angle: if they pushed the upgrade with vulnerabilities to mainnet, what would explode wouldn’t just be the price, but the entire ecosystem’s trust.
The upgrade can be delayed, but your principal won’t wait for you. The market fears not bad news, but not knowing when the next bad news will come.
Short-term bearish upgrade expectations are undeniable. But the process of "finding issues → delaying → fixing" actually shows Ethereum’s core developers are not a reckless team making snap decisions.
Second: ETFs are running out, but staking is quietly hitting all-time highs
In October, US spot ETH ETFs saw about $1 billion net outflow, one of the largest this year. Leading products like IBIT lost funds, institutions are cautious short-term, which is the most direct pressure on price.
But on the other side—
About 43.8 million ETH are staked, accounting for 35.9% of circulating supply, with continuous net inflows over multiple quarters. BitMine keeps increasing and staking, holding about 6 million ETH, close to a 5% supply target.
In plain terms:
ETFs are selling, but corporate treasuries are buying—and locking it up in staking, not selling.
Yield dropped to 2.63%, indeed not high. But consider—
In an environment where the Fed rate is 3.75%-4.00% and 10-year Treasury yields are above 5%, someone is still willing to lock ETH for 2.63%. What does that mean?
It means they’re not betting on interest, but on ETH’s future price.
Retail traders curse at the candlesticks, institutions quietly lock up supply. Who understands this market better, no need for me to say.
Third: Macro is the biggest sword hanging overhead
September CPI YoY was 3.7%, higher than expected, core also elevated. The Fed raised rates in September to 3.75%-4.00%, 10-year Treasury yields at 5.0%-5.13%.
High real yields = risk-free returns outperform all risky assets.
How do you expect institutions to choose? Buy Treasuries for a stable 5%, or buy ETH to bet on doubling?
More crucial is the FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
The market leans toward pricing in rate hold, but risks of further hikes or sustained high rates remain. Middle East geopolitics, oil prices, AI capital expenditure volatility, stock and crypto correlation—ETH as a high-beta asset falls harder than BTC when macro tightens.
Key levels
Resistance above: 2420-2440 → 2480-2500 (20/50-day EMA convergence, bull/bear lifeline) → 2520
Support below: 2355-2380 (100-day EMA) → 2320-2350 → 2200-2300 (demand zone)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
If volume picks up and stabilizes near 2350-2380 with hammer/engulfing signals, go light long targeting 2420-2450, stop loss below 2350, risk/reward >1.5.
If rebound meets resistance at 2440-2480 (especially EMA pressure), go light short targeting retest of 2350-2380, stop loss above 2500.
Don’t guess direction around 2400; wait for a breakout above 2480 with volume to chase, or break below 2320 to short.
Swing traders:
Not suitable to heavily bet on direction now. Macro uncertainty + upgrade delay suppress sentiment. Wait for FOMC outcome, clear new upgrade date, or three consecutive days of ETF net inflows before considering adding positions. Mid-term fundamentals (high staking + institutional accumulation) hold, but trend catalysts are needed.
Long-term believers:
The 2200-2300 range is a good dollar-cost averaging zone. Staking locked 35.9% of supply, selling pressure structure is improving. But don’t expect a V-shaped reversal—it’s a slow repair, not a bull frenzy.
ETH now is like October 2023—
Everyone was cursing "ETH is trash, can’t beat BTC," ETFs hadn’t arrived, upgrade was nowhere, price was flat.
What happened?
Half a year later, ETFs passed, price went straight from 2000 to 4000.
The three most expensive words in a bear market aren’t "cut losses," but "wait for upgrade." Because the upgrade will come, your principal might not wait.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $UNITREE is skyrocketing like crazy, what's driving the market rally behind it?
Mainly the commercialization of humanoid robots. Once the policy news came out, market funds' expectations for this sector increased, and the entire AI sector's heat was lifted.
Looking at the smart money data, there are currently 221 players in total, with a long-short ratio of 67.15%.
Long positions hold $2.55 million, average price 83.134, all in profit, with a profit ratio of 55.35%.
Short positions hold $3.8 million, average price 87.26, all at a floating loss, with a short profit ratio of 39.15%.
Short positions are larger, but most are stuck in losses. The market violently surged to 95.17, the price has far exceeded the short average price. As long as shorts can't hold and either cut losses or get liquidated, it will push the price higher, creating a short squeeze.
Currently, the sector is still hot, the funding rate is negative at -0.7726%, shorts pay longs, so shorting is costly in the short term. Lulu recommends waiting for a pullback to 87.89 to go long, with a target first at 96. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 #存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 The CORE project team quietly profits with a 34.5% token share, while you are left holding the bag
CORE has a total supply of 2.1 billion tokens, with the project team's related treasury, contributors, and reserve pool collectively holding about 34.5%. This is the core trump card in the entire game. Many retail investors enter the market attracted by stories like BTCFi, SatPay, and revenue buybacks, hoping that ecosystem transaction fees will generate cash flow to push up the token price, unaware that the team obtained a large amount of low-cost chips from the genesis stage.
On-chain ecosystem income has long been nearly zero, and so-called business profitability is nowhere in sight. The project team does not make money from on-chain fees but relies on unlocking shares and selling them off in batches on the secondary market to realize profits. The August 31 vulnerability severely damaged the token economy; official nodes chose to quit block production, shedding operational costs and network backstop risks, yet the rights to dispose of chips remain firmly in their hands.
On one side is the project team's massive inventory that can be cashed out at any time; on the other side are token holders bearing all the risks of ghost chip selling pressure, concentrated governance, and ecosystem underperformance. Here, asset boundaries are distinguished again: staked BTC relies on Bitcoin time locks, with private keys in the holders' own hands, so the principal cannot be taken away, but the valuation of CORE tokens continues to be suppressed by large potential sell orders.
Narratives are tools to attract buyers, but the large pre-allocated shares are the underlying source of the project team's revenue.#MetaQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, massive AI investment raises concerns
"Zuckerberg spends 800 billion, Bitcoin falls to 81,000"
Meta's just-released earnings report shocked the entire Silicon Valley funding chain.
Although quarterly revenue surged to $64.6 billion, Zuckerberg's capital expenditure for the quarter hit $34.9 billion, and future non-cancellable long-term commitments piled up to $825 billion, directly burning the quarterly cash flow to a negative $2.1 billion.
Consequently, the five-year default credit spread jumped to 116 basis points, tech assets across the network retreated overnight, and Bitcoin also retreated from its high to fluctuate around $81,600. $BTC Yesterday's move: Nasdaq fell first, Asia followed, $BTC dropped back from the 84K fake breakout to just above 80K. It looks like the market is hunting stops, but it's really just a rainstorm: risk assets all got soaked together.
UBS jumped in saying don't panic, you can start thinking about "buying the dip"—but the second half of the sentence also said it's not time for a full-on rally yet. Oil is still around 114, with a three-day gain hugging the 5% yellow line, the wind hasn't stopped at all. Plainly put: some say it's okay to go out, but first check if it's still raining outside. Until the structure is fully cleaned up, don't chase new positions. Are you more afraid of missing out or that the wind will pick up even more?
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 #France's government bond yields hit a 24-year high, will bond market risks spill over? France's 10-year government bond yield has reached a 24-year high, sparking market concerns about whether the old European debt issues will resurface and risks will spread outward.
Let's first look at the underlying reasons: on one hand, France's fiscal deficit remains high, with the market worried about the continuous expansion of government debt and rising debt servicing pressure; on the other hand, the European Central Bank maintains high interest rates, continuously suppressing bond prices and pushing yields higher.
But it's important to distinguish that this time is different from the European debt crisis back then. Currently, Eurozone banks have stronger risk resistance, and the ECB has tools to provide a backstop, making a severe sovereign debt crisis unlikely in the short term.
Risk spillover can be viewed on two levels:
Internally, it will suppress the euro, drag down European stock markets, and cause government bond yields of highly indebted European countries to rise in tandem;
Externally, it is a regional negative factor, indirectly affecting US stocks, commodities, and crypto assets, with limited impact and unlikely to create a global systemic risk.
Key points to watch going forward: whether the Eurozone debt spread widens rapidly and the ECB's stance. If multiple countries' government bond yields surge simultaneously, global risk appetite will quickly cool, putting pressure on various risk assets.
Overall conclusion: in the short term, this is a localized bond market disturbance and will not spill over on a large scale for now, but market volatility caused by sentiment spread should be watched closely. $BTC $ETH $SOL $PEPE
Falling more than DOGE, is sentiment retreating with low elasticity?
In this morning's spot snapshot, PEPE's 24-hour change was -4.53%, ranging from 0.000004332 to 0.000004615 USDT.
DOGE fell 3.81% on the same basis, with PEPE dropping more, consistent with the scenario of high-elasticity assets under pressure, but two samples alone cannot prove capital outflow from the entire meme market. A broader range of volume and relative performance is needed for confirmation.
If PEPE continues to lag DOGE during a rebound, the risk contraction explanation is stronger; if it recovers losses first, the judgment on the direction of capital withdrawal should be revised. This afternoon BTC is playing dead again, but altcoins have already gone crazy! Yesterday everyone was shouting bull return, but today, looking at it, ZEC dropped below 1200 at its lowest, HYPE and UNI are also steadily declining. Brothers holding coins, isn't your heart bleeding right now? 🤣
$ZEC current price 1216, down more than 4%, the 4-hour long-short ratio is only 0.56, indicating that although the price has dropped, a bunch of retail investors are still topping out shorting, the bulls have all fled, now it's all bears, and the open interest remains high. This kind of sentiment can easily trigger a short squeeze rebound, so don't blindly chase shorts at this position.
Looking at $HYPE now at 78.4, the 4-hour long-short ratio has directly risen to 2.56, which is the most dangerous signal today. Although it has been steadily declining, retail bulls have not fled but are holding on stubbornly or even adding positions. The load is really heavy; unless this batch of high leverage is cleaned out, there's no chance.
Finally, $UNI at 7.25, it has rebounded nearly 2% today, but don't get too happy too soon. The 4-hour long-short ratio is as high as 2.34, all retail investors chasing longs inside. The open interest is rising but clearly declining, indicating that the main funds are retreating during the rebound. Don't catch the falling knife.
The current market is that ZEC is killing shorts, HYPE and UNI are killing longs. Whether going long or short, entering now is likely to get slapped from both sides. Wait until this wave of leverage is completely cleaned out before making a move.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
#ETF单日流出超6亿美元，BTC价格能否企稳？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The signal mentioned in yesterday's post really came true today—xBE reclaimed MA120, and the bulls have started repricing. On OKX, it hit 222.03, standing above all moving averages (MA5 218.30, MA30 215.37, MA120 218.87). In 24h, it pulled back from a low of 200.51 all the way up, and the panic sell-off after hours basically got filled.
There’s actually good news hidden in the earnings report: GAAP turned profitable with a net income of 250 million, and the full-year guidance was raised. Q4 revenue is expected to beat analysts’ estimates—the market calmed down and realized the fundamentals aren’t bad. The cash flow concerns are the "cost of expansion," not "operational deterioration," so the funds have returned.
My judgment: In the earnings report’s mixed signals, the market’s first reaction was panic (negative cash flow), the second was recalculation (turning profitable + raised guidance). After figuring it out, the price moved above MA120; however, the 24h high of 229.90 still looms overhead, with solid resistance near the previous high.
Watch the signals: a breakout above the 24h high of 229.90 could mean acceleration; a pullback to test if MA120 at 218.87 can hold; and watch tonight’s US Eastern market open for the official vote.
#xBE #BloomEnergy #Earnings
Not investment advice, DYOR$PONS: There are quite a few issues, with declining fees and an unsettled buyback and burn mechanism. The on-chain meme coin cap is low, which does not align with the direction of public chain development. It is recommended to refer to the pump model and use part of the revenue to hold hackathons to support developers; otherwise, it will be difficult to grow.
$MORPHO: Fundamentally strong, it is a leading on-chain lending protocol. Coinbase and Robinhood both use it for on-chain wealth management. The activation of the fee switch will be its key turning point.
$AI: Initially viewed positively, but after the renaming incident and most of the founder's plans not materializing, it is now viewed less favorably. No further positions will be added; continuing to observe.
NOTE: A veteran project, launching swap this week, with the team continuously advancing development; currently undergoing Cyfrin audit, with mainnet launch after audit completion. The only drawback is the team's anonymity, but overall it is fairly reliable. $SNDK Q3 earnings reports are coming out one after another, many tech companies, which one do you favor the most? In my heart, SanDisk is always number one! In the OKX prediction event, I also voted without hesitation that SanDisk's earnings would exceed expectations. The reason is simple: just based on what SanDisk said on August 13 at Investor Day, the gross margin is expected to remain around 80% by 2030! Secondly, SanDisk signed NBM agreements with 8 major customers, mainly that customers are willing to lock in a 3 to 5-year price floor at current prices. These orders are close to hundreds of billions of dollars, and with an 80% gross margin, profits reach as high as $80 billion! This also precisely indicates that customers do not believe storage prices will crash in 2027-28! Contrary to the widespread concern that storage will be oversupplied within two years, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on Thursday that the possibility of memory oversupply by 2029 is low. I also support Huang's view. In fact, besides AI, various daily data files, images, and applications are consuming more storage, and AI is only in an early-stage slowdown of growth, which will surely resume high growth later. Storage remains the main tech theme for the coming years! As the leader with the most advanced technology and years of accumulation in NAND, SanDisk's market cap has now dropped to $180 billion, a pure value lowland. As for how much I favor SanDisk? The distribution of increased positions in the chart says it all!
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Ripple and Swiss settlement liquidity provider Arf announced on October 22: using RLUSD to provide short-term turnover for licensed cross-border payment companies, generally repaid within one to five days. Arf claims an annual settlement volume of about 10 billion USD. XRP only covers fees and reserves; the second phase native lending awaits validator votes on XLS-65 and XLS-66 and is not yet live. CoinGecko spot XRP is about $1.32 (snapshot around 16:02 Beijing time).
The real change is prepaid funding: converting funds sitting in destination accounts into recyclable short-term loans. Critics will focus on two points: how much RLUSD was allocated remains unclear, and the lending amendment has not yet been fully activated.
The half-month window is sufficient. Institutional borrowing and lending flows are close to zero, or the amendment is still stuck at the validator threshold. Treat this as a roadmap rather than a sign that the settlement fund pool has already started moving.
$XRP
#Ripple #CrossBorderPayments I don't currently consider this short position to be trend-following: the material only provides opening information, without price structure or market sentiment; a downward direction does not equal a downward trend. Core Trader 96 opened a new $BTC short position with 40x leverage, nominal value about $59,100, but the outcome is not yet known.
I have three rules for trading trends. One is to first look at the structure, then the direction. If the lows keep moving down and the rebounds can't surpass previous highs, then this short has a basis for being trend-following; without these, no matter how decisively the wallet opens the position, I won't treat it as a trend signal.
Another is to see if the trade goes against sentiment. If the market sentiment is strongly bullish but the price starts weakening, shorting might be following the weakening; if the price remains strong, opening a short just because "it's risen too much" is counter-trend guessing the top. The current information can't distinguish these two situations, so I'd rather be a bit late.
The last is that leverage shouldn't embolden judgment. At 40x, a reverse move of about 2.5% could wipe out the initial margin, and actual liquidation is also affected by maintenance margin and other factors. Even trend-following trades face pullbacks; counter-trend trades might not even have enough time to correct.
When judging whether such short positions are trend-following, do you use moving average arrangements, previous highs and lows, or volume coordination, and which timeframe specifically? My stance remains unchanged—trend is the best friend; before confirmation, I don't rush this step.#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Many people previously said that the mass production of HBM4 was a case of good news fully priced in, but SK Hynix just started small-batch deliveries in Q2, posting a quarterly profit of over 60 trillion KRW with a profit margin of 76%. This hardly looks like good news has been fully priced in; clearly, a new profit cycle is just beginning. Now in Q3, HBM4 capacity is officially ramping up, and contract prices for regular DRAM are still rising. Both sides' performance 【XMR Weekly Increase of 9.4%, Privacy Coins Take the Lead】
While the overall market keeps falling, Monero (XMR) rose 9.4% over the week. On October 21, veteran trader Peter Brandt posted that the monthly chart pattern of $XMR reminded him of silver's move before it surged to $125. However, he only provided a chart comparison and did not predict that XMR would replicate silver $XAG's gains.
There are also interesting points to consider in the market: XMR rose from around $550 before October 16 to above $600, briefly surpassing $650 before pulling back. According to Santiment reports, from October 15 to 20, XMR futures open interest increased by about 22%, indicating growing trading activity. However, both bulls and bears increased their positions, so this cannot be directly interpreted as smart money collectively going long.
This rally can be seen as a localized event within the privacy coin sector. Technical perspectives provided a catalyst, and the price breakout attracted capital to follow. But it is important to note that XMR is approaching a long-term resistance zone, and the higher it rises, the more it attracts chasing buyers. The historical pattern of silver can be referenced but should not be treated as a script to copy.
Going forward, the key focus is whether XMR can hold steady around $600 and if volume can sustain after breaking resistance. If volume expands and holds, and pullbacks find buying support, the rally has a chance to continue expanding.