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$SNDK this 75x long position is up +177.9%, the 1277.4 base position is still held.
On the 4-hour chart, after dropping to 1205, the bottom is slowly rising, MA5 just crossed above MA10, MACD green bars are emerging, and a daily-level rebound signal has appeared. I bought long near 1277. The 15-minute chart shows a pull-up from 1254, with moving averages in a bullish alignment, but KDJ's J value has reached 99.1, RSI is severely overbought, so a short-term pullback is needed. Meanwhile, I made several grid trades for T, but the base position remains untouched.
Currently stuck at the 1310-1314 4-hour resistance zone, volume is starting to shrink. If it can't break through, it will likely pull back to 1300 or even 1284. 75x leverage is not a joke; I only hold when profits are substantial. If 1314 can't be surpassed, I'll reduce part of the position first and watch for support at 1280 on the pullback.
As long as the trend isn't broken, hold tight, but don't give back profits. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Two registration documents have taken effect, yet the trading date hangs in limbo—in our field, this is called a numbered tropical depression with its path forecast still undecided. Franklin Templeton puts FBEQ and FIBT on the table: 95% equity assets as the base, 5% Bitcoin exposure through the ETP channel, then uses stock dividends as a warm, moist airflow continuously supplying moisture into the digital asset cloud.
This is not the kind of structure where a spot Bitcoin ETF directly hits the eye of the storm. It’s more like a sustained frontal precipitation—not relying on a single outbreak, but a stable upward airflow formed by dividend reinvestment. The 95-to-5 ratio forms a thick inversion layer, locking the position on the equity side and leaving only a narrow slit for Bitcoin. Don’t underestimate this slit; the energy of weather systems often doesn’t release from the main convective area but squeezes out from the shear line at the edges. The whole atmosphere looks calm, but the lifting condensation level is quietly dropping.
FBEQ presses on large-cap blue chips, FIBT targets innovative companies—two air masses with very different natures: the former is a dry, cold high-pressure ridge, stable, with little disturbance and small diurnal variation; the latter is a warm, moist unstable stratification with strong vertical wind shear, ready to trigger convection anytime. But their outflow is the same—dividends converted to Bitcoin. Thus, the main control variable on the demand side shifts from "sentiment temperature" to "dividend payout rhythm," stretching the forecast time scale from intraday thunderstorm prediction to seasonal circulation analysis. Short-term traders will find this uncomfortable because observable radar echoes decrease, and reliable numerical models extend longer.
What really needs monitoring is sustainability. How much incremental buying power can dividend reinvestment generate annually? Is this "precipitation amount" or "moisture cycling"? If the latter, it just reroutes rain originally meant to fall back into equity accounts into the Bitcoin basin—the total volume remains unchanged, but the precipitation area shifts several degrees of latitude and longitude. Ensemble forecasts show huge divergence in such scenarios: the geopotential height difference among members is only a few meters, but the precipitation areas differ drastically. Marginal buying and stock repositioning look almost identical in real-time; only after the precipitation ends and cumulative amounts are reviewed can the truth be distinguished.
The linkage with the US stock token $xGOOGL is another layer of observation. Tokenized equity combined with on-chain Bitcoin exposure connects two weather systems originally at different altitude layers. When dividend flow, equity volatility, and on-chain liquidity couple, the probability of localized strong convection rises significantly, visibility drops synchronously, and wind direction shifts from a single "risk appetite" stream to multiple airflows shearing each other. In this situation, the worst mistake is to use observations from a single station to forecast the entire province’s weather.
Downstream radar echoes have not appeared yet, but the upstream upper trough is already deepening. Registration taking effect confirms the circulation pattern; the trading date is the specific start time—forecasts without a start time can only be trend outlooks, not real-time warnings. The 5% exposure on paper is small, but it hangs on the dividend mechanism’s lead wire, whose other end connects to a continuous cash flow.
In this system, the real danger is not that 5%, but the 95% of positions that think they have nothing to do with the storm. #franklindividendstobtc#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4 is unlikely to significantly boost this quarter's profits directly in Q3, but it will determine the market's expectations for the subsequent profit baseline after the Q3 earnings report; the main profit drivers this quarter remain the general DRAM/NAND with price increases of HBM3E+.Even gold has fallen below 4000! My 100x $ETH long position recovered from a 58% loss, but the more I look, the more anxious I get
Family, the most outrageous thing today isn’t the crypto market dragging its feet, but that even gold, the "old king of safe havens," can’t hold up. Spot price directly broke through the $4000 mark, hitting a more than three-month low.
It sounds counterintuitive: Middle East geopolitical tensions haven’t eased, oil prices remain high, and inflation pressure hasn’t dissipated. According to the old script, gold should be rising. But it fell instead. The core logic is simple—high interest rates are strangling all non-yielding assets. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, so money sitting idle earns interest with no risk, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. Even institutions are reducing their long positions and turning to embrace the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. $BTC
Looking at gold’s trend, I glance again at my ETH long position and feel uneasy. This 100x position was opened at 2331; a few days ago, the worst unrealized loss hit 58%. Today, thanks to short covering, it recovered to only a 12% unrealized loss. I was somewhat relieved, but seeing gold collapse like this instantly sobered me up.
If even the traditional king of safe havens can’t withstand the Fed’s rate hike expectations, how solid can this rebound be for a high-volatility, high-risk asset like ETH? Simply put, it’s a technical rebound after a heavy drop, not real new money entering to bottom-fish. The whole market is waiting for tomorrow’s FOMC decision. Gold has already voted early with its feet, indicating growing confidence in the expectation that "high interest rates will last longer."
If even gold can’t escape the pressure of interest rates, it’s hard for the crypto market to remain unaffected. Let’s wait until tomorrow when the direction truly emerges.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
• Can the growth continue? Q3 data has given a positive answer, with trading business (stocks/options/crypto/prediction) fully active, combined with net inflow momentum, providing solid support for short-term revenue growth.
• Valuation and risks: Despite impressive performance, the stock price already reflects high expectations (up over 270% in 2025). The market worries about the unsustainability of the "everyone speculating" craze, changes in crypto regulation, and high valuation pressure. The future focus is whether new businesses (prediction markets, tokenization, institutional) can scale quickly to smooth out trading cycle fluctuations.
In summary, Robinhood is transitioning from a "zero-commission broker" to a "comprehensive financial ecosystem." The Q3 earnings report validated the resilience of the core trading business, while new businesses are becoming a second growth curve. Long-term incremental growth is promising but volatility should be watched.> $ETH | ∼$2,306: Support near $2,300 but no strong rebound yet
> Afternoon double dip below $2,300 then recovered — buying below, but rebound hasn't reclaimed upper hourly MA.
> Support: $2,297-$2,290, then $2,275 if breaks
> Resistance: $2,315-$2,325 first, need $2,335-$2,350 to improve short-term structure
> Take: Weak tug-of-war. No accelerated decline before $2,290 break; no strength confirmed before $2,325 reclaim.
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings The longer the calm lasts, the more it makes people afraid to blink. $BTC is hovering around $80,000, with the 3-month implied volatility dropping to the 0.8 percentile of the past three years, and the 30-day volatility only 1.8%—direction undecided, the market is waiting for news to land.
On the macro side, easing expectations are fading. September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, the strongest since March 2022; the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.1%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in October is 71.8%, with rate cut bets below 10%, putting pressure on crypto valuations.
At the exchange level, leverage is being squeezed out. On October 24, BTC fell below $79,280, triggering $404 million long liquidations within 4 hours, accounting for 93%; open interest is about $140.1 billion. ETF outflows for the week were $228 million, only 0.2% of the $104.3 billion total assets, more like position adjustments.
The calendar is the fuse: Fed decision on October 28, midterm elections on November 3, and a flurry of tech earnings reports. About $8 billion in shorts above and $7.6 billion in longs below derivatives await liquidation; triggering either side could break the low volatility.
The current quiet is the market holding its breath, not the endgame. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 How much can you earn by holding FIL now until 2027?
My final judgment
I focus more on whether FIL can prove three changes by 2027: a decrease in new supply pressure, growth in paid storage demand, and market funds re-entering the DePIN sector.
Among these, the end of token vesting has already provided supply-side improvement, but the demand side still requires real business data for validation.
If by the first half of 2027, FIL remains below $1 and paid services have not significantly grown, then the $5 target should be viewed more cautiously. Conversely, if FIL breaks through $2–3, trading volume continues to improve, and network revenue rises simultaneously, then the feasibility of $5 will be significantly higher.
Conclusion: $5 can be considered an optimistic target for 2027, $10 is more suitable as an extreme bull market target, and neither should be taken as a guaranteed price. Investment decisions should also consider the risk of falling below the current price or even hitting new lows again. The US-Iran discussion on the Hormuz Strait opening plan caused oil prices to fall, and the risk appetite recovery provided a short-term boost to SPCX, but the four-hour level is still in a downward correction. I judge this rebound to be more sentiment-driven rather than a trend reversal. From the capital perspective, the rate of only 0.0081% indicates that the bulls are not overheated, with a position of 373,000 coin-based contracts not considered crowded; short covering is the main driving force. The market rose 1.1% in 24 hours, with the price at 151.26 close to the intraday high of 151.64, still 5.94% above the four-hour low. The top ten buy orders are 1798 versus 1374 sell orders, a ratio of 1.31, with buy orders dominant but the turnover only 1.022 million, indicating thin volume and questionable momentum for chasing highs. Strategically, a light long position can be tried on a pullback to 149.35, with a stop loss at 147.62 and a target of 153.48; if it directly rises to around 153.2 and stalls, reduce positions, controlling holdings within 20%. In thin volume markets, heavy positions should be avoided.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SPCX#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
$SPCX Long and short divergences intensify: ETH weakest in the short term, ZEC shows abnormal capital sentiment
The latest 5-minute active trades show that BTC, ETH, and ZEC all have a bearish dominance, but the capital structure is not unified, and market divergences have clearly expanded.
🔻$BTC long-short ratio is 0.769, with large holders leaning towards defense, while retail investors' long-short ratio exceeds 2.3. Despite short-term selling pressure dominance, retail investors are still absorbing long positions; if the rebound lacks volume support, it is prone to forming another bull trap.
🔻$ETH shows the strongest bearish advantage, with a long-short ratio of only 0.6658 and bears accounting for 60.03%. Retail investors' long-short ratio is as high as 3.40, clearly opposite to the large holders' direction. If BTC weakens, ETH may likely lead the decline.
🔻$ZEC presents a different signal: long-short ratio is 0.846, short-term active selling still dominates, but large holders' sentiment is clearly bullish, with significant capital still absorbing. This contrasts with BTC and ETH large holders' defensive stance.
Overall, ETH is the weakest in the short term, ZEC has the largest divergence; BTC needs to be cautious of a volume-less rebound. Currently, not all capital is uniformly bearish; rather, large holders and retail investors, as well as different coins, are engaged in intense competition.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SanDisk (SNDK): Bullish, but wait for a pullback.
Fundamentals are solid—FY2026 revenue up 175% year-over-year, gross margin at 84.6%, signed $93.9 billion in long-term locked orders, profitability visibility far exceeds traditional cyclical stocks.
However, the stock price has dropped from the June high of $2354 to just over $1300 now, down nearly 25% this month. The market is trading on a "cycle peak," with sentiment killing valuation.
The key event is the earnings report on October 29. If the gross margin holds above 83% and guidance does not weaken, the current level has support.
Positioning: 1250-1300 is a reasonable entry zone, below 1150 is a golden opportunity. Do not chase highs before the earnings report; wait until after it lands to act.
⚠️ Personal analysis, not investment advice. Storage stocks are volatile, control your position size. Based on October 27, 2026, my judgment is: FIL has a chance to reach $5 in 2027, but it requires a recovery in the crypto market; reaching $10 is also not impossible, but it would need a stronger bull market and improvements in Filecoin's fundamentals to jointly drive it. It is important to emphasize: reaching the target price and stabilizing above the target price by the end of the year are two completely different levels of difficulty. 1. How low is FIL's current valuation? Starting from $0.90, the returns and market capitalization corresponding to different target prices for FIL are as follows. This calculation uses the current approximate circulating supply of 838 million FIL. The circulating supply may further increase in 2027, so the actual required market cap could be higher. Multiples of the target price relative to the current price. Core conclusion: $5 requires FIL to return to a circulating market cap of several billion dollars; $10 requires regaining a larger scale of market capital allocation. This is not unprecedented in crypto market history, but it cannot be judged solely by the historical highest price that it will rise in the future. 2. Scenario probabilities for FIL hitting $5 and $10 in 2027 The following is my subjective scenario estimation based on current market valuation, project progress, and crypto asset cycles, not an objective probability calculated by a statistical model. My price assumptions under different market environments at the end of 2027 are as follows: This table describes the scenario at the end of 2027, while the previous probability description refers to whether the target price was ever reached during 2027. 3. Three key catalysts for FIL's rise 1. Slowing supply growth October 1, 2026 #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？
Microsoft after-hours results, will Azure keep pressing the gas pedal?
Brothers, Microsoft will release its Q1 earnings after the market closes on the 28th. Current price 532.6, slightly down to around 529 in after-hours trading. Conclusion first: beating expectations is not hard, the hard part is whether the market will buy it.
Market expects EPS 4.71, revenue 90.6 billion, Azure growth guidance 44-45%. But Morgan Stanley has already raised the expectation to 47%, meaning 45% is just the passing line.
If Azure doesn't reach above 46%, after-hours will most likely show you a bad face. Copilot's 30 million paid seats is the trump card, but capital expenditure exceeded 50 billion in a single quarter, and gross margin is still declining. The speed of AI dividend realization can't keep up with the burn rate, that's the real risk.
How are the option traders betting? Bearish, very clear.
A few days ago someone dumped $1.56 million selling out-of-the-money 540 Calls, and someone else used $9.63 million in bear call spreads to cap 555-575. The Call/Put volume ratio looks like 1.55, but the big orders are all selling upside space.
Translation: institutions think the 535 to 550 range can't be broken through. Implied volatility prices about 5.3% movement, both bulls and bears have chances, but the big money chose to collect rent, not chase gains.
My view: Azure above 46, after-hours touches 550; only 44-45, whether 535 holds is debatable.On October 27, the Q3 earnings reports of $SAMSUNG Samsung and $SKHYNIX SK Hynix were released one after another. The combined operating profit of the two is expected to be 184 trillion KRW, double last year's full-year 90.8 trillion.
But the stock prices are falling. Samsung has dropped 36% from the June high, SK Hynix down 52%. The P/E ratio has fallen to about 3 times, and the foreign ownership ratio has dropped to the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Record profits, valuation dropped to financial crisis levels.
This is not "poor performance," but "the market does not believe this profit can be sustained." Of the 184 trillion, HBM contributed the majority. Whether HBM4 can take over next year is the anchor for the stock price.
3x PE, 184 trillion profit. The market is pricing in "a 65% profit cut next year," and Goldman Sachs says this pricing "seriously deviates from fundamentals."
However, the panda thinks that the market not believing the profit can be sustained does not necessarily mean the market is right. What do you all think? #SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? Can SanDisk's high growth in storage business continue? This directly affects the valuation imagination of SKHYNIX. My judgment is that short-term momentum still exists, but it has entered a sensitive window that needs verification. The current quote is 1037.2, up 4.8% in 24 hours, with bulls testing the overhead selling pressure. However, the top 10 order book shows 134 buy orders versus 356 sell orders, with a buy-sell strength ratio of only 0.38, clearly favoring sellers; funding rate is zero, open interest is 61,000, indicating a neutral to cautious leverage sentiment. The 1-hour distance from the high is only -0.09% but distance from the low is 10.69%, and the 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend structure with a distance from the high of -16.26%, a typical range upper edge turning point. Strategically, one can lightly go long at 1031.6 with a stop loss at 1018.3 and a target of 1052.7, adding positions after breaking 1045.2; if it rallies then falls below 1024.5, reverse to short with a stop loss at 1038.9 and a target of 1006.4. Single position size should not exceed 20%, strictly observe stop loss.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$SKHYNIX#Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue?
#Can SanDisk's high growth in storage business continue?
$SKHYNIX #三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓
"Samsung's Profit Surges Nearly 8 Times in Q3, Full Financial Report Coming Soon"
Samsung just released preliminary Q3 results, operating profit about 9.1 trillion KRW, revenue 79 trillion KRW.
Although the figures surged nearly 8 times compared to the low base of the same period last year, institutions originally expected over 10 trillion KRW, so the numbers did not meet buyers' expectations.
Chip business head Jeon Young-hyun issued a rare public apology; the key issue was the delayed supply of high-bandwidth memory HBM3E to NVIDIA, missing the golden period of the computing power race. Samsung will release the full financial report on October 31, and the real focus will be whether it can be validated by major companies afterward. $三星Q3利润预增近8倍#Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ …Excellent article, currently clearly showing characteristics of the early bull market!
Currently, the way $BTC liquidity is triggered is obviously the opposite of the previous bearish trend consolidation phase.
In the bearish trend consolidation phase, the highs are repeatedly tested but the trend does not continue, sweeping liquidity at previous highs.
In the bullish trend consolidation phase, the lows are repeatedly tested but the trend does not continue, sweeping liquidity at previous lows.
Many people are bearish and shorting at this BTC position, but the price is only slowly declining, dropping sluggishly. Every time it approaches around 80,000 and looks like it will break down, it pulls back again, indicating that the main force is accumulating at this position using limit orders.There are finally some signs of recovery
$ETH is finally somewhat profitable
But $BTC is still at a loss
It's time to rise, brother
Stop harvesting back and forth
$DOOD's funding rate is really abnormal
The citrus manipulator is about to make a move
Don't be fooled
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 1. HBM is the profit foundation, with long-term contract volume locked in
HBM4 continues to ramp up, and long-term agreements (LTA) with major clients like NVIDIA serve as a core safety net. These contracts include price adjustment mechanisms to hedge spot market fluctuations. Institutions expect the proportion of high value-added products to continue rising; regular DRAM contracts and spot prices are rising simultaneously, doubly driving up ASP. The Q3 forecast has already been revised upward, and strong profitability is expected to continue in Q4, with operating profit margins maintained at an extremely high level above 70%. SOL｜About 100.81: Following the rebound, still not out of weakness
SOL rebounded from around 99, reaching a high of 101.14, but the most recent full hour closed at 100.82, still not firmly above the previously indicated resistance zone of 100.8—101.1.
Upward: First see if it can hold above 101.1, then look at 101.5—102.1.
Downward: First watch around 100.25, then 99.7—100. If it falls below 100 again, be cautious of a retest of 99.
My inclination: Weakness correction. Reclaiming 100 is an improvement, but until it holds above 101.1, it is not enough to confirm a shift to strength. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BCH warmed up today following the broader market, with funding rates remaining positive and buy-side depth dominant. I judge that short-term buying has initially stabilized, but upward potential depends on volume support. Current price is 287.9, up 3.7% in 24 hours, approaching the intraday high of 290.31, just 0.53% below the four-hour high; the upward structure remains intact. The top ten order book buy/sell ratio is 1.73, clearly favoring buyers. A funding rate of 0.009% indicates mild bullish sentiment without overheating, and coin-margined positions of 84,000 show funds are still actively trading. A light position can be entered on a pullback to 285.6, with a stop loss at 282.3 and a target of 293.7; if volume breaks above 290.31, increase position size, keeping it within 20%, and exit decisively if stop loss is breached.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$BCH#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
$BCH Microsoft $MSFT is releasing its earnings report after the market closes on October 28 today. Each company has different focus points, and Microsoft has its own characteristics.
The priority of focus points is roughly arranged as follows:
1. The top priority is, of course, Azure growth + forward guidance.
2. Then profitability, especially cloud gross margin, mainly to verify whether AI investments have hurt profitability.
3. Next is capital expenditure (Capex), which is especially important this year.
4. Free cash flow (FCF), which is becoming as important as point 3.
Many other companies focus on EPS, but for Microsoft, that's not a big deal—they always beat expectations.
I compiled a table below showing whether key factors in each earnings report over the past 3 years beat expectations + the stock price performance on the first day after the report, so everyone can see it clearly (ps: their fiscal year calculation is different; other companies' Q3 earnings correspond to their Q1).
There is a rule in US stock earnings betting: the more a stock has risen recently and the more news there is, the easier it is for the market to find faults. Meeting or slightly beating expectations can still lead to a big drop. Microsoft just hit a historical high, so the difficulty level has risen sharply.
But putting aside the one-day gamble, Microsoft's historical performance in October and November is still good. In the past 10 years, the probability of gains from October 31 to November 30 is 80%, with 8 out of 10 times positive returns, averaging +4.12%.
Everyone, stay tuned
#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ $PI has three ways the market values it
$BTC is valued through scarcity, liquidity, and its potential role as a crypto reserve asset. Institutional flows are important.
$ETH is valued through on-chain activity: stablecoins, decentralized finance, fees, and ecosystem capital.
$SOL carries a growth narrative: users, transactions, applications, and liquidity must expand to support higher valuations.
Same market, but different frameworks. Price is the outcome; capital flows and real activity require confirmation. Firing has started again. So someone jumps out again, skillfully shouting those two words: safe haven. Buy this, buy that.📣
And then? The market first asks not whether to be afraid, but where the money comes from.💸
When conflict escalates, fiscal expansion comes first, supply tightens first, and volatility amplifies first. The so-called safe haven often just means switching from one set of leverage to another.🎢
The first wave grabs sentiment, the second wave collects liquidity. By the time you see “safe haven” trending, the price has already sold you the story.🧾
Don’t treat geopolitics like candlesticks, don’t treat slogans like logic. True safe haven is not chasing the rise of some code, but deleveraging, holding cash, and controlling your hands.🧊
I’m not bearish on conflict, I’m bearish on the universal formula of “war must cause a rise.” Every round someone tells you to seek safe haven, every round someone pays for sentiment.💣➡️💳
War is not a gift, it’s a bill; not a button, but a fog.🌫️#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Elections are just a source of volatility; the cost zone is the real lifeline for BTC
Midterm elections are often seen as BTC's "fixed ordeal." Looking back at four instances: before and after the votes in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC experienced pullbacks of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% respectively; Q4 also mostly performed poorly, with declines of -16.7%, -42%, and -14.75% in 2014, 2018, and 2022 respectively. As November 3 approaches, feeling tense is not shameful; ignoring risks is dangerous.
But this year's rhythm is different. In past bear markets, the lows mostly appeared after the vote, with lags of 71 days, 38 days, and 13 days; this year, the low was seen on July 1 at 57,850, 125 days before the election day. By October 22, the price rebounded to 81,455, about 40% above the low. The market seems to have completed the "election bottom" ahead of time.
Right now, more attention should be paid to the cost. Around 73,000 is close to the average purchase cost of short-term holders; Strategy holds 848,000 BTC with an average cost of 75,446. These two anchors overlap in the 73,000–75,000 range. The real damage caused by the election is not the voting day itself, but the possibility of pushing the price down to test this cost zone. Holding this level means the bull market logic remains; losing it is the real problem.
CoinDesk's judgment makes sense: midterm weakness is more due to its own cycle rather than the election. Elections create volatility; cost determines life or death. November 3 can see a drop, but the 73,000–75,000 range must not be lost. My Bitcoin trading strategy for October 27.
On the H1 timeframe, $BTC is still fluctuating within a converging triangle pattern, with the range gradually narrowing, indicating the market is consolidating and possibly waiting for news to decide its next move.
Currently, the price is oscillating between 79,500-80,500, and the short-term trend remains bearish as the price continues to make lower highs.
My trading strategy
Scenario 1: BTC may experience a false upward rebound, with liquidity quickly breaking through the 81k-82k range, then falling back and dropping to the 78.7k area.
Scenario 2: If buying pressure continues to weaken, BTC may break below the lower edge of the triangle pattern and drop directly to the 78.7k area without a significant rebound.
This is just my personal opinion and not investment advice.
Do you think Bitcoin will pull back to the 81k area to clear liquidity before a crash? Please share your thoughts!No one can guarantee you will make money unless they are a scammer, but I can tell you that I believe Google's GAAP earnings per share have over a 90% probability of being less than $3, because SpaceX's stock price fell in the third quarter.#Google Cloud business grows 82%, how is the AI investment return? The largest publicly listed buyer of Bitcoin suddenly stopped.
After Strategy bought continuously for 5 weeks, it didn't buy a single BTC last week.
As of October 25, the company still holds 848,517 bitcoins, with no purchases or sales during this period.
What’s more noteworthy is that it used about $205 million to repurchase its own preferred shares.
At the same time, MSCI is considering adjusting the index inclusion rules. If the new rules are implemented, Strategy may face the risk of being removed, and future financing for buying coins could also be affected.
**I think what truly deserves attention is not that Strategy paused buying for a week, but the financing logic behind it.**
Strategy’s continuous Bitcoin purchases largely depend on the capital market: issuing stock, raising funds, and then converting the money into BTC.
As long as the market is willing to give it a valuation premium, this model can continue to operate.
But if index eligibility is affected, financing costs rise, or investors are no longer willing to pay a premium, this approach may hit a bottleneck.
Of course, stopping buying for a week doesn’t mean it’s out of money, nor can it be taken as a bearish signal on Bitcoin.
But I believe **what really deserves caution is not that big players temporarily stop buying, but that the market is starting to reassess whether it can sustain financing.**
After all, Bitcoin can be held long-term, but financing channels cannot remain open forever. Busy flipping the market late into the night, I finally breathed a sigh of relief. The exchange's BTC balance dropped by 8,166 coins in one day, down to 2,490,600 coins. Coins are moving out, not piling in.
But looking at a longer window, over 7 days the exchange's balance actually increased by 36,237 coins. One day's outflow versus a week's inflow—this short-term move looks more like repositioning than a desperate escape. That calmed my nerves 😌.
Tonight, the batch of US data has passed, the suspense digested. I won’t guess where it landed; guessing right is luck, guessing wrong breaks your mindset.
Two European surveys simultaneously tightened their tone. On the business side, the proportion reporting loan obstacles rose to 7%. On the banking side, net demand for mortgages dropped 27%, much deeper than the banks’ expected 12%. Before Thursday night’s decision, Europe’s credit tension is already high.
The funding cost table is interesting too. BTC’s weighted cost hangs at 0.0097%, ETH only 0.0059%. Bulls pay more on BTC, but the market doesn’t show BTC being tougher. Money spent, but momentum didn’t follow—kind of funny.
In options, bullish positions account for 59.34%, but bullish trades only 52.85%. Positions are more bullish than trades; everyone talks tough but keeps a hand back. I think that’s a good thing.
As for the market, the three major coins are still grinding near the threshold. ZEC closed up against the trend. I’m not rushing to conclusions, just watching. On days when coins move out, feeling secure is more important than acting fast. Anyway, I’m not chasing this wave 😌.ETF 目前只是申请，还没批。 Canary Capital 今年 4 月提交了 PEPE 现货 ETF 的 S-1 文件，10 月初又做了修订，但 SEC 还没批准，上市时间也不确定。 所以"孙哥提前知道 ETF 要过"这个说法，目前没有证据支撑。$PEPE $BTC $ETH 孙哥确实在买。 据 Arkham 数据，孙宇晨关联钱包在 10 月 17 日和 26 日从 Poloniex 提了 11.85 万亿枚 PEPE，目前持有接近总供应量的 3%，疑似是最大个人持有者。 他买是买了，但孙哥的动向向来是双刃剑，跟着他冲的人不少被埋过。 巨鲸动作并不统一。 确实有链上数据显示部分大钱包在积累，但也有巨鲸在亏本抛售换 ETH。 筹码高度集中在少数地址手里，77%-90% 的供应量在大钱包里，这意味着少数人就能左右盘面。 这轮上涨更多是情绪驱动。 PEPE 10 月 24 日单日涨了 14%，周涨幅 23%，但没有任何明确的基本面催化剂。 衍生品市场融资费率接近零甚至略负，说明多头并没有真的愿意付溢价持仓，更多是短线杠杆在推。 我的看法：PEPE 现在就是纯情绪博弈，ETF 申请是个叙One of the biggest headaches for ENS in previous years was people using domain names to mass-issue scam tokens, and the official team could only arbitrate one by one.
Now the direction has reversed. V2 allows a single domain name to act as an independent registry, where communities and organizations set their own subdomain issuance rules—a root domain becomes a namespace plus a token launcher. Whoever controls the root domain can spawn unlimited subdomains, taking even the "name looks trustworthy" aspect along with it 😏
Regarding existing domains, the official stance is very polite: current .eth domains will continue to work without needing to re-register, and upgrading is voluntary. Thirty-six million domains and over six hundred applications—these two numbers will still be cited; but who will really migrate to V2? Most likely new names, not those thirty-six million old domains.
$BTC
$ETH
$ENS Samsung's Q3 operating profit is expected to increase nearly 8 times, and the numbers are indeed shocking. But before the full financial report is released, what I most want to resist is equating this directly to "HBM has completely won."
Samsung is a conglomerate with many businesses. Storage, wafer foundry, mobile phone businesses, etc., face different demands and costs. A significant increase in group profit can prove strong overall performance but cannot automatically endorse every business line.
Especially regarding the rise in storage prices, the implications may differ across departments. The supply side benefits from the price increase, while end products must consider component costs. Internal transactions also require consolidation and elimination, so the benefits of each department cannot be simply added together.
So this time I want to see which businesses mainly contributed to the profit and which still need continued investment.
If storage profitability improves while other businesses also improve, the market's understanding of growth will be more complete; if profits are highly concentrated in one area, then we need to ask how long that segment's prosperity can be maintained.
Such a large year-on-year increase inevitably creates the impulse of "if you don't buy now, it will be too late." I also think the results are impressive, but the earnings forecast has already told everyone the total and breakdown. The value of the full financial report lies in seeing how each subject performed. The upcoming expectation gap is likely hidden there.
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 $ZEC BTC and ETH have been volatile these three days, with daily highs getting lower each day. Everyone be cautious and pay attention to risks. Before the Thursday interest rate decision and the related statements come out, it's not advisable to hold heavy high-leverage positions. Hold back, better to stay in cash. Don't rely on K-line charts of minutes or hours, they can be misleading. ZEC is running an independent rally again, up for three consecutive days, but: be cautious. Chasing longs and chasing the rally is very risky because the fact is: neither the high of 1348 on the 12th nor the more recent high of 1368 on the 22nd has been reached or broken. There is still a possibility of a sudden reversal downward. Can ZEC really be completely unaffected by BTC and ETH? I think it's unlikely... That's all.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
ETF funds are like the Pharaoh drawing maps in the desert—changing every day. Can this buying pressure really hold steady?
The Pharaoh says directly: don’t expect it to hold firmly. The current ETF funds are like "weather vanes," swaying with the wind.
First, look at how volatile the data is. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a cumulative net inflow of about $246 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbing $373 million. But don’t forget, in the first week of October, nearly $680 million fled, marking the worst since August. On October 7 alone, $485 million flowed out—the largest single-day outflow in three and a half months. Money comes in fast but leaves even faster, mainly aiming to "break even and exit."
First, the macroeconomic sword still hangs overhead. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, making risk-free returns very attractive, so funds dare not stay long in risky assets.
Second, the FOMC meeting is just ahead. The October 28-29 rate decision meeting has an 85% chance of a pause in rate hikes, but who dares to bet heavily before the meeting? Everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop.
Third, there’s heavy resistance above. A large amount of previous chips are stacked around 81,000 for Bitcoin; no one is stepping up to push it higher, so the price naturally slides down.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? ETF buying is a "floor support," not an "engine." It can prevent deep drops, but whether it can soar depends on when Treasury yields bow and whether the FOMC will signal dovishness. $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ zijin Thermometer: ETF Shift on October 21, but "Sustaining" Is Harder Than "Turning Positive"
ETF data shows a notable change: BTC net inflow of about $40.8 million, ETH net inflow of about $29.4 million, and SOL also shifted from slight outflow to inflow. A few days ago, there was a collective retreat; now the three major coins have simultaneously turned positive.
However, a single-day shift needs to be viewed over a longer period. ETH remains in net outflow over the past 30 days, and SOL’s 30-day dimension has not fully recovered either. BTC’s cumulative ETF inflow over the past 7 days is about $513 million, showing marginal improvement in capital reception, but whether this forms a trend depends on continued follow-up.
Key reference levels:
$BTC: Around 84,500, with 85,000 above as a recently repeatedly tested area, and 86,000 as the next observation point; on the downside, first watch for support around 84,000.
$ETH: Around 2,507, with the 2,500 integer level as the short-term bull-bear dividing line.
$SOL: Around 108.4, if the 110 level fails to break through, short-term chasing funds may face pullbacks.
Before results are announced, zijin tends to be cautious. What’s more worth tracking now is the continuity of ETF inflows, not just single-day figures.
Interaction: Who do you think has stronger sustainability in this round of inflows, BTC or ETH? Let’s discuss in the comments.
For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Is $AKE crazy? Has the sideways movement these days been just for this?SoFi's earnings-driven rally is really strong—yesterday's post mentioned a pre-market +4.8%, today OKX's xSOFI went straight to 16.59, +15.13%, climbing from 14.38 to 16.68 within 24h, staying near the highs; the underlying stock SOFI hit 16.57 intraday, +14.56%, marking the largest single-day gain since August 3.
What's driving this? Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, adjusted EBITDA beat market estimates by over $40 million, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance—every metric in the earnings report is proving the bears wrong. Fintech (digital banking plus lending) is being revalued by capital; OKX xSOFI tracks the underlying stock intraday with less than 1% price difference.
My judgment: this is a genuine earnings-driven rally, not just hype—the revenue beat plus raised guidance are solid catalysts; but with three consecutive days of gains (+9%, +14%, +15%), sentiment is heating up. Intraday turnover of 7.19% indicates intensified trading, so those chasing should beware of a high-open, low-close scenario.
Watch the signals: whether 16.68 (24h high) can break out with volume; if the underlying stock can hold above 16.65 intraday, sentiment remains intact; the most critical is whether it can close firmly above 16—earnings rallies fear a gap fill from a low open the next day.
#SoFi #xSOFI #USStockTokens
Not investment advice, DYORTrump calls to buy coins, the Federal Reserve coldly raises interest rates: who do you think retail investors believe?
Brothers, this script is just too intense.
On one side, the White House is exploring using federal funds to buy Bitcoin, with the strategic reserve executive order still fresh;
On the other side, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, personally appointed by Trump, raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, which angered Trump so much that he said in a "Time" interview: "If it were me, I would vote no."
You call this "America First"? This is called fighting with both hands.
But the market first believed Trump's words. When he said "discussed buying Bitcoin," BTC surged from 65,000 to 70,000; when he said "no war with Iran before midterm elections," BTC bounced back to 81,000.
But look closely, all these statements are "discussed," "planned," "in progress"—none have actually been implemented. The probability of the bill passing was cut from 30% to 10% by Galaxy Digital, and Polymarket only gives 17%-19%.
The market is trading on what Trump said, but the Fed is trading on whether inflation is still present.
A report from the New York Fed directly contradicts this: 2.9 percentage points of commodity inflation in February 2026 is due to tariffs; the September CPI annual increase is 3.7%, with fuel prices soaring 74% year-over-year.
So in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $544 million, with longs liquidated at $461 million, which is not undeserved at all.
Retail investors believed the "Trump rally" and chased longs, but the Fed poured a cold bucket of interest rate hikes, and leverage died on the spot.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ No#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Folks, on October 29th there's another tough battle ahead, SanDisk is about to release its latest quarterly earnings report.
The current expectation is revenue between 10.3 billion and 10.8 billion USD, with confidence fully resting on AI data center demand and NAND flash price increases. It looks quite strong, but there's a big pit hidden inside.
The market isn't afraid of poor performance now; it's afraid of good performance with guidance that isn't explosive enough. Recently, Micron and Western Digital had decent earnings, yet their stock prices were still hammered badly. Because expectations were set too high, as soon as you can't continue to beat expectations, the money runs away immediately.
This time, when looking at SanDisk, don't just focus on revenue; the key is to watch two things. First is gross margin—whether the benefits from NAND price hikes have truly converted into solid profits. Second is next quarter's guidance—whether management has confidence that demand and price increases will continue into next year.
This matter still directly impacts our BTC. Storage and chips are the risk appetite barometers for global tech stocks. If SanDisk's earnings disappoint, the entire AI hardware chain will shake, and BTC definitely won't hold the 80,000 level, it will have to drop further. Conversely, if its performance is outstanding, it means AI is still crazily attracting money, but BTC won't benefit much since all the money is going into building data centers. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $BTC On the evening of October 27, I bought 0.602324 xSNDK on OKX at an average price of 1299.3 USDT, with an actual transaction amount of about 781.34 U. The order screenshot is attached below for those interested to compare. Let me first share my thoughts before the earnings report. SanDisk will release its new quarterly earnings report after the US stock market closes on October 29. Last quarter's revenue was $8.965 billion, a 51% quarter-on-quarter increase. The company's guidance for this quarter's revenue is between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion. I am optimistic about its storage business, mainly because the demand from AI data centers continues to be released, coupled with NAND prices and the expansion of enterprise-level SSD business. These points, in my view, are solid support. After the results come out, I will mainly focus on three areas: whether revenue can exceed guidance, whether the gross margin can maintain a high level, and whether the guidance for the next quarter is further raised. Also, I have to consider risks; if the market has already priced in the good news in advance, even if the performance is good, the stock price may open high and then fall, which I am aware of. As for why I bought now, this is actually a small position trial order before the earnings report, not a heavy bet on the results. I chose xSNDK mainly to participate in the storage sector's earnings momentum while keeping the position within my risk tolerance. If the earnings exceed expectations and the stock price stabilizes, I will consider adding to the position; if good news comes out but the volume drops, I will have to reassess. Ultimately, trading is not about guessing the earnings correctly to make money; entry pointWhy is everyone so focused on the upcoming interest rate meeting? In fact, interest rates basically drive the fluctuations of the entire market above. Take rate hikes as an example: in reality, the bond market and interest rates are fundamentally linked. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond yields adjust upward in sync as an anchor. The reason is that if yield and interest rates become unanchored, frequent arbitrage activities occur, such as borrowing money from banks to buy bonds. This situation would worsen the economy, which is not the banks' original intention. Of course, sometimes the bond market also forces the central bank to regulate interest rates.
Rate hikes also cause global capital inflows. For example, with the US Federal Reserve raising rates, US assets become attractive. Global currencies are converted into dollars in the forex market to be stored in the US to earn interest, which forces the dollar exchange rate to rise and strengthens the dollar's value.
Rate hikes also drain liquidity from the US domestic stock market and gold market, including $BTC. The so-called stock-bond seesaw is the reason: rate hikes make it difficult for US domestic companies to finance, and the market holds a pessimistic view of corporate expected profits, leading to a depressed domestic stock market.
Additionally, gold and $BTC are global markets; capital is converted into dollars to purchase lower-risk bonds or deposited in the Federal Reserve, further draining liquidity from these two markets.
This is basically a relatively shallow understanding. Due to word limits, I'll stop here for now. #ThisWeekWillAnnounceOctoberFOMCInterestRateDecision Strategy halts for the first time in five weeks as FOMC opens today
Two stable marginal buy orders simultaneously stopped before the decision: Strategy made no trades from October 19 to 25, instead spending about $205 million to repurchase preferred shares; U.S. spot ETFs saw a combined outflow of about $770 million over two days, with prices suppressed below 80,000 awaiting direction.
$BTC around 79,600, briefly rebounded above 80,000 intraday before falling back. ETF net inflow for the day was $110 million, but all came from BlackRock IBIT alone, with zero flow from other products. 79,400–79,600 saw multiple supports, while 80,500–80,800 is resistance above. Strategy's pause is more noteworthy than ETF outflows, as it signals buying on a weekly basis.
$ETH around 2,305. ETF net outflow for the day was $88.58 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone accounting for $104.7 million, setting a single-day outflow record for the product. 2,300 was repeatedly tested, with no capital support signaling a bottom.
$SOL around 99.9, having fallen below 100. ETF net outflow for the day was $8.23 million, and about $49 million SOL was transferred to exchanges as monitored on-chain.
In short: Before the FOMC opens, Strategy has stopped, ETFs are propped up by only one player, and SOL has broken the key round number. All three coins are waiting for the same thing: who will come back first after the decision.
#Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建 60,000 people received voluntary layoff invitations as Microsoft invests $175 billion in AI
On Monday, Microsoft offered voluntary layoffs to about 60,000 employees, accounting for 27% of its global workforce of 223,000.
This covers the US, Canada, UK, and India, including teams from Copilot, Windows, and Xbox, excluding data centers and sales.
Decisions must be made by early December, with departures by year-end; the company did not disclose how many it expects to leave.
This is not the first downsizing this year: about 8,750 qualified for the spring retirement plan, with over 30% accepting, and 4,800 were laid off in July.
Meanwhile, Microsoft plans to spend $175 billion on AI infrastructure this year, with quarterly capital expenditures exceeding $50 billion.
The money saved on personnel is flowing into buying hardware.
Earnings report will be released after market close tomorrow, with expected EPS of $4.71 and revenue of $90.6 billion; Azure guidance growth at 45%.
My view: The AI spending will eventually be balanced by headcount reductions; downsizing is not negative but a cost statement, so observe without chasing.
Invalidation point: Azure growth below 45%, or capital expenditure guidance raised again.
Which side are you on?
A: Downsizing to protect profits, stock rises after earnings B: Spending out of control, watch $486 first
$MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN
#Microsoft #EarningsReport The market is so quiet it feels a bit unreal. BTC is grinding between 79,800 and 79,330, having touched a high of 80,291 before sliding back, like someone repeatedly testing the door but unwilling to push it open. Seeing this horizontal line, would you want to add to your position or pull back first? In the past 24 hours, it dropped between 0.54% and 0.76%, with a monthly cumulative decline of about 5%, marking three consecutive weeks of losses. The Fear and Greed Index fell from 50 to 48, slightly below neutral; sentiment hasn't collapsed but is clearly contracting. What really made me pause is the derivatives side: about $135 million liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for $91.74 million. Leveraged longs proactively withdrew before the FOMC, which isn't panic but more like unloading vulnerable points in advance. The market is not really trading on "whether to raise rates" but on "whether December will be forced to act." The probability of no action this time is priced at 90.6% to 91%, almost fully accounted for, so the real variable lies in the nearly 80% rate hike expectation for December. In other words, the meeting itself may hold no surprises, but any slightly hawkish wording or dot plot will first hit those long positions that haven't been fully cleared. The bullish path also holds: after a round of washing out leveraged longs, the position structure lightens; if the decision is moderate, the squeeze risk shifts to shorts, giving BTC a chance to retest above 80,291. ETH and altcoins' sentiment recovery would be faster, and when risk appetite warms, capital is more willing to return to high beta assets. But the unseen risk is,$SOFI's earnings report triggered a 15% jump, but the stock price is only at half of its one-year high.
Both membership and revenue are growing, and next year's guidance is higher than the market expected. I can understand this rally.
What I care more about is the crypto revenue line.
On the books, it's $160 million for one quarter, but after costs, they only keep $1.6 million.
In other words, they're just helping users buy crypto and taking a small cut; the money basically doesn't go into their own pocket.
So don't treat it as a crypto concept stock to speculate on; its profits still mainly come from lending.
However, the number of crypto accounts opened increased quite a bit in one quarter, it seems retail investors are coming back.
I don't hold it, so I won't chase.
If today's bullish candle can hold above $15.5, that would be considered digested; if it falls back to the $14 range, then treat it as a one-day play.
When you look at earnings reports, do you check revenue first or flip through the fine print?
$SOFI $COIN $BTC
#SoFiEarnings