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#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
【SanDisk SNDK these days: explosive earnings report, stock price first crashes then rebounds】
On 11/5, it plummeted 22.26% in a single day to $806, then rebounded 3.55% on Friday to close at $835. The trigger is not the earnings report: midterm elections sparked concerns over AI data center regulations, Kioxia's guidance was only flat, implying a slowdown in flash price increases, and rumors of Yangtze Memory's capacity expansion further pressured supply expectations.
But "cycle peak" does not equal "fundamental collapse": Q2 EPS guidance is $55–57, with an annualized valuation under 4 times, and analysts mostly still rate it as "buy." Technically, RSI is about 24, breaking below the 50/200-day moving averages, indicating a short-term oversold rebound; mid-term reversal requires reclaiming $1150–1270. The real test will be the earnings report at the end of January next year.Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, putting the Fed's December rate cut expectations to the test again!
For the crypto community, strong non-farm data is not necessarily positive.
If rate cut expectations cool further, expectations for loose liquidity may weaken, and risk assets like BTC and ETH could face short-term pressure; but how the market ultimately moves will depend on subsequent inflation data, the dollar's trend, and actual capital reactions.
Key points to watch next:
Federal Reserve policy expectations: whether the probability of a December rate cut continues to decline;
U.S. Treasury yields: whether the upward trend continues;
BTC and ETH: whether key support levels hold and if rebounds have volume support.
Market trading is never just about the data itself, but the changes in expectations behind the data. After news breaks, it’s often more important to wait for market confirmation than to blindly bet on direction.
$BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The Democrats took Congress, the crypto market first rose then fell, I think I understand now
The result of this midterm election is the most beautiful fake move of the week.
On November 4th, as the election results became clear, Bitcoin made a V-shaped rebound past 78,000, with a compelling reason: the Democrats want to amend the "Clear Act," possibly strengthening SEC powers and restricting officials from holding coins. It sounds like bad news, but the phrase "finally some rules" itself is fuel for the crypto price, as uncertainty discounts were reclaimed.
Then on November 5th, the same group gave back all the gains in one day. Why? The market repriced another factor: the faction of Democrats from more states already dislikes the unchecked expansion of AI, including reviews of data center energy consumption, land use approvals, and longer construction cycles—all factored into valuations. The Nasdaq lost about 2.5 trillion dollars in one day, the seven giants combined nearly 1 trillion, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index dropped over 12% in one day.
The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100, according to Bitfinex, reached 0.68.
So stop saying "Bitcoin is digital gold," at least not this week. It is a high-beta tech stock wearing a decentralized outfit. I didn’t buy the post-election rebound this round because I couldn’t figure out which is heavier—"regulatory clarity" or "AI budget cuts"—now the answer is clear: it’s the latter. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC Strategy's 849,327 coins are both a shield and an anchor
A holder's perspective on the toughest position.
As of November 1, Strategy holds 849,327 coins with a total cost of $64.08 billion and an average price of $75,451. Note this price—the current coin price is $75,838, their 2026 batch has just resurfaced, and the overall average price is still around $90,600. Sellers are not necessarily at a loss; they can withstand it on paper.
This model is now stuck at a critical point: MSCI's new rule finalized on October 15 removes "non-operating companies" from the global investable market index. Strategy and Metaplanet are both on the potential list; among the 22 affected companies, 14 are related to crypto. The final list will be announced on November 11 and will take effect after market close on November 30.
The selling pressure from passive funds is estimated by Morgan Stanley to be about $2.8 billion. Even harsher is the flywheel effect: weak stock price → narrowing premium on issuing shares to buy coins → less coin buying → narrative discounting. I personally treat MSTR as "2x leverage on BTC," so this week I’m watching November 11 first, not the coin. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC Where did the money go after six consecutive ETF losses?
Let's talk about real capital flows, this part matters most to me.
On November 3rd (Eastern US time), the spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of 116 million, BITB counterintuitively bought in 21.91 million, FBTC bought 6.75 million. On November 5th, there was a net outflow of 430 million, with Fidelity at 200 million and IBIT at 105 million. Looking further back, on October 30th there was a single-day net outflow of 643.3 million, the largest since June 25th; none of the 12 products that day had net inflows, and IBIT alone withdrew 233.7 million. For the entire October, these products had a combined net outflow of 515 million, while the outflow in the first two trading days of November already matched the whole month.
But there is an unusual point: during the days when Coinbase premium was negative, it indicated that the spot price inside the market was cheaper than the coins listed on US stock exchanges, meaning traditional funds were withdrawing while the crypto community was supporting. This is unlike 2024’s "institutions taking over, retail following" scenario; it seems both sides are waiting.
My personal rule is simple: only add positions after two consecutive days of net inflows; a single day’s rebound doesn’t count. We haven’t reached that point yet. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC #ASTS advances mobile direct satellite connection service, commercialization progress pending disclosure $ASTS
Core judgment: Q3 revenue is highly likely to be near consensus (about $45 million), but the probability of GAAP EPS being above -$0.41 is only about 30%–35%, "below expectations"
Commercialization: BlueBird 11-13 have entered orbit, with a total of 13 satellites in orbit. Integration tests with Europe and Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica are underway, and Brazil has also obtained Anatel regulatory approval and signed with four regional operators. But these are all "pipeline laying," not revenue. Q3 revenue consensus is $44.4 million–$45.7 million, a year-on-year increase of about 3 times, but the absolute scale remains very small.
Cash burn: Q2 single quarter free cash flow burned $719 million, twice that of the same period last year, and 23 times the revenue of the quarter. Q3 capital expenditure guidance is $350 million–$425 million, plus $105 million–$115 million in adjusted operating expenses, the burn rate will only accelerate. Cash at the end of June was $2.29 billion, plus $1.15 billion convertible bonds in July, which at Q2's burn rate is only enough to last about 9–12 months.
Satellite deployment: 13 in orbit, target about 45 by early 2027, with a total installation pace to be increased to 6 per month. Below 45 satellites, continuous coverage and commercial service for mobile direct connection cannot be scaled. If the Q3 conference call cannot provide a clearer timeline for the start of carrier revenue sharing, the loss baseline of EPS will not change. This time, the Federal Reserve has slowed down the watch.
There's a detail that unsettles me more than the nonfarm payrolls. At the FOMC on October 28, the vote was 10:2 to maintain 3.75%-4.00%, with Cook and Harker wanting to raise by 25bp. The key isn't the vote count, but what Wash announced: starting in 2027, there will be 8 meetings a year, but one of them will only discuss monetary policy strategy, with no rate votes or statements; in 2028, it changes to 2 strategy meetings and 6 rate meetings.
He also outright rejected "forward guidance," saying in normal times he doesn't trust it.
What does this mean to me? I'm used to positioning based on wording—whether it's "closely monitoring" or "data-dependent," breaking down those three words lets me anticipate moves early. Now that path is closed; the only signals left are from the vice chairs' speeches. Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker put it bluntly: in the future, vice chair speeches will be more useful than the chair's. So I have to rearrange my information sources and can't just focus on decision nights anymore.
By the way, Dallas Fed's Logan is still saying "at least two more 25bp hikes." He has a vote this year, so don't ignore him. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC Nonfarm payrolls +165,000: Good news, but the worst kind of good for Bitcoin
Last night at 21:30, US October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, expected +65,000, previous value revised up from 29,000 to 60,000, and August revised up from 133,000 to 186,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, all exceeding expectations.
Translation: The Fed’s biggest fear, the "wage-price" spiral, is handing it a noose.
CME FedWatch December rate hike pricing was about 67% before the report, surged to 85% intraday, and settled at 68.7% for a hike and 31.3% for no change by early morning today. Don’t be scared by the difference between 68 and 85—that’s the same data breathing at different moments; the direction hasn’t changed—the main storyline is rates rising to 4.00%-4.25% by year-end.
So last night’s scene was especially twisted: Nasdaq futures up 1%, Bitcoin down 5% to 75,765. Risk assets are fighting among themselves; tech stocks are betting on "no economic collapse," while crypto is paying the price for "more expensive money." I cut my leveraged positions in half last night—not bearish, just don’t want to be a human shock absorber for the news. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC I stand with Brother Ba Bai. To be honest, seeing this market, I myself am quite numb. I never expected that all the semiconductors and storage sectors, which everyone says have strong fundamentals, could drop more than ten points in one night.
And this happened without much fundamental change, just because of a potential policy, the entire market was stirred up to this extent. Not to mention $SOXL and $KORU, these 3x leveraged ETFs, which actually dropped 40% in one night.
But after calming down and analyzing, I am thinking about what is real and what has a solid foundation?
Some people say $BTC is relatively resilient, even after Binance and all the hacking incidents, it still holds steady around 75,000. Indeed, this was somewhat unexpected for me. But I feel the main theme for this phase might not be focused on discussing BTC. It fell less, but whether it can have strong elasticity when it rises, I have a small question mark.
From another perspective, actually all these AI companies we worry about today do exist.The 76,000 price is the most "fake" support I've seen this year
Just refreshed, BTC 75838, opened at 76088, daily high 76416, low 74888, amplitude 2.01%, down 0.33%. The numbers are quiet, but this quietness is what's left after Thursday's liquidation.
Zooming back 36 hours: On November 5th at the US stock market open, Bitcoin dropped from 78767 to 75986 within an hour, hitting a low of 75200. The entire network saw $1.254 billion liquidated in 24 hours, with 238,600 people forcibly liquidated, including $1.11 billion in long positions. The 75000-76000 range is originally a dense area on CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap. The price staying here doesn't mean someone is holding it up; it means the leverage has been cut off, and there's nothing left to liquidate.
My own view: support is not "it will bounce when it falls here," but "there are still people willing to buy here." Currently, I see no evidence of anyone willing to buy here. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC dropped to 76,000 overnight. The day before was a rebound after short squeezes, but today the liquidation list switched to longs.
More worth noting than the drop is the rhythm: crypto almost crashed alongside the Nasdaq. Many still treat BTC as a safe haven decoupled from the US stock market, but when the entire market is deleveraging simultaneously, BTC and tech stocks share the same liquidity pipeline, making it hard for funds to move independently.
True decoupling isn’t about low correlation during normal times, but about risk assets being sold off collectively while it can still independently strengthen—that’s what safety means. Clearly, that’s not the case now.
So, don’t bet on it suddenly decoupling when correlation is at its highest.The Taiwan stock market just posted its worst single-week performance since 2001. The official response was not to wait for buying interest to return, but to pull out a 500 billion TWD rescue fund and impose a short-selling ban starting November 9. Arthur Hayes' comment on this was simply: The AI rescue operation has begun.
First, let's talk about the nature of these actions. The rescue fund addresses "whether there is money to buy," while the short-selling ban addresses "whether it can be smashed." The former adds liquidity to the market, the latter blocks half of the outflow. Doing both simultaneously almost guarantees a short-term effect: the index stops falling, shorts cover, and volatility is suppressed. But what is suppressed is volatility, not valuation.
Next, consider the mechanism. The most direct effect of banning short selling is to remove the opposing side. Short sellers are forced to close positions, and their buybacks become a spontaneously appearing buying force, pushing prices up. This looks like "confidence recovery," but in reality, it is "the supply side being artificially cut off." The quality of this rise depends on when the short-selling ban is lifted—on the day it is lifted, the postponed selling pressure will return all at once.
Therefore, for assets like $BTC and $ETH, which trade 24/7 without price limits or short-selling bans, this round of sentiment transmission is one-way: positive news can drive prices up, but the real selling pressure in the Taiwan market has not disappeared; it has just been postponed until after November 9.
What really matters is not the size of the rescue fund, but when the short-selling ban will be lifted. The week it is lifted will be the final exam for this "AI rescue" round.The Democratic Party has taken both chambers and verbally calls for anti-war, but don’t celebrate too early. The new Congress won’t be sworn in until January 3 next year, and in these two months, Trump could very well try to make some moves—once this window closes, it’s gone. But looking at the bigger picture, the Democrats hold the "purse strings," so it will be very difficult for them to push for large-scale wars or war budgets in the future. So my judgment is: the probability of a full-scale US-Iran war is decreasing, but this two-month "window period" is actually a high-risk phase for unexpected events.
What does this mean for the crypto community? To put it bluntly: if oil prices don’t explode, $BTC can breathe. Previously, when US-Iran tensions escalated, oil prices soared, inflation expectations rose, and the Federal Reserve dared not ease monetary policy, so $BTC was suppressed. Now that Congress wants to lock down war, the "panic premium" in oil prices will gradually fade. As long as Trump doesn’t make any big moves in these two months, the macro environment is implicitly positive for crypto—one less straw to break the camel’s back.
But don’t get carried away in your operations. Geopolitics is slow to ease but can worsen in the blink of an eye. If Trump throws out some bombshell during this two-month "gap," oil prices will still fly, and $BTC will still drop. The strategy is simple: don’t chase highs; if you have positions, reduce them when the rebound hits resistance; if you don’t have positions, wait for a pullback and stabilization before acting. Don’t take "Congress anti-war" as a reason to go all-in; the market is always teaching us lessons on the way.
#TrumpTokenProbe Hot Coin Data Rankings｜Last 15 Minutes
$ETH surged with increased volume but reduced positions. Trading volume was 137 million USDT, 9.9 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour; price +0.63%, open interest -0.81%. The rise accompanied by position reduction suggests more of a price push from covering or profit-taking.
$BTC rose accompanied by position reduction. Trading volume was 81.794 million USDT, 5.5 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour; price +0.32%, open interest -0.79%. Price up with positions down, the quality of this rally is discounted.$SNDK has been falling continuously? Why isn't it going up?
Don't simply attribute it to earnings missing expectations; the real pain point is that the market is no longer willing to assign high valuations at the peak of the cycle.
Even if the current data looks good, what capital fears most is that the high profits earned now are very likely the ceiling of this storage cycle. Once the price increase benefits fade later, the gross margin will directly decline, and the stock price.#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？
The core negative news landed in October. The company announced that Neutron's maiden flight has been postponed from the end of 2026 to 2027 due to pore defects found in the carbon composite material dome of the first stage propellant tank, which could weaken structural strength. CEO Baker stated, "Possible success is not our standard," but the stock price dropped more than 10% that day. This is the third major delay for Neutron, pushed back from the original plan of 2024.
Analysts quickly adjusted their expectations. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an overweight rating but pushed the maiden flight forecast to Q2 2027; Citizens cut the target price from $130 to $90, viewing it as a "time setback rather than a change in logic." Baker said the new dome testing will not be completed until Q1 2027, at which point a new launch date will be announced.
The financial figures themselves are expected to be decent: revenue around $257 million, a 65% year-over-year increase, with Space Systems continuing to carry the load. But the real question is, in the absence of Neutron, how much longer can Rocket Lab's growth story, supported by Electron and satellite business, sustain market patience? Although the order backlog reaches $2.36 billion, without Neutron, those medium-sized launch contracts are just paper numbers.Strong employment boosts expectations of interest rate hikes, not the hikes themselves; the crypto market can still be bullish in this period.
In October, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, with an expectation of 65,000. The difference of 100,000 is the part that far exceeded expectations. Are these 100,000 new jobs actually added, or was the expectation set too low? September's data was also revised up to 60,000, and the same set of numbers will be adjusted again after release. The monthly comparison is 165,000 versus 65,000; the two-month average is 112,500—two ways to interpret the same month. Before the release, CME FedWatch gave a 72.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. After the release, interest rate futures first fell, then the dollar, gold, and stock markets re-priced according to their respective discount rates.
When the algorithm changes, the magnitude changes.
This judgment relies on the average, not a single month's spike; if November's new employment again exceeds 160,000, the two-month average won't hold down the bullish view, which would then be invalidated.There is a number worth watching today: Fidelity transferred 10,000 ETH to Galaxy Digital, valued at about $22.32 million, with the purpose clearly stated — intended for sale. This is not a single transfer; today a total of 27,000 ETH was transferred, totaling about $60.27 million.
The direction is crucial: coins flow from the custodian to the market maker, changing their nature from "holdings" to "inventory pending execution." 27,000 ETH for $60.27 million, consistent with the price rhythm of this batch of 10,000 ETH for $22.32 million, indicates continuous transfers rather than occasional portfolio adjustments.
The mechanism is also clear. If the ETF issuer and large asset managers really want to sell, they won’t directly dump on the market but will first transfer to market makers, who then distribute the selling pressure between spot and derivatives markets. Therefore, these transfers are a pre-signal of selling pressure, not the selling pressure itself; the impact occurs on the days of execution, not at the announcement.
Three judgments: First, 27,000 ETH is not huge relative to ETH’s daily trading volume, so a short-term crash is unlikely, but sentiment will be affected first. Second, continuous, phased transfers explicitly marked for sale indicate a planned reduction. Third, $ETH is under pressure at a key level, and $BTC and $SOL will follow; correlation rises when liquidity tightens.
The real highlight is not this transfer but Galaxy Digital’s upcoming net inflow to exchanges. Downstream, the selling pressure materializes; if held, it may just be inventory reshuffling.6 AM, just finished washing up and getting ready for breakfast, casually checked the market! BTC is still struggling around 75,000, ETH continues to be under pressure, and SOL hasn't held above $90. Is this drop the final shakeout or the start of a new correction?
First, let's look at $BTC: reference price about $75,500
US October nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, strengthening the dollar and US Treasury yields, and raising expectations for a Fed rate hike in December. Coupled with continuous outflows from spot ETFs earlier, market buying remains cautious. Short-term support to watch is 75,000; if broken, it may test 73,000, with a rebound target at 77,000.
Next, $ETH: reference price about $2,220
ETH is still underperforming BTC; after previous leveraged liquidations, market confidence has yet to recover. Strong employment data further suppresses easing expectations, and risk appetite remains weak. Short-term support to watch is 2,200; only a firm hold above 2,300 offers a chance for recovery.
Finally, $SOL: reference price about $89
SOL fell below $90, indicating the altcoin market still lacks sustained buying. Short-term support to watch is 85, with clear resistance between 90 and 95; avoid chasing gains blindly without volume.
A few final words:
Strong employment data and rising rate expectations mean the market is still digesting pressure. A true bottom requires confirmation of capital inflow, not just a single rebound candle!
Do you think BTC will hold 75,000 or continue to test 73,000?
#AAOIQ3营收同比增长128%，连续六季创新高 Once regarded as a "top-tier" Ethereum ZK Rollup, Scroll has posted a progress update on its governance forum, announcing plans to gradually transform its public chain into a private application-specific network centered around the AI product Compass within about 9 months. The SCR token will be migrated synchronously to the Ethereum mainnet, with tokenomics unchanged, but the network's nature will shift from an open public infrastructure to a private permissioned network. On-chain data has long revealed the predicament. Scroll's daily transaction volume is about 9,700, with 584 daily active addresses and daily on-chain revenue of only $41.78, down 75.6% from the previous week, ranking 21st among the 27 tracked chains. TVL is about $3.6 million, and the SCR token has dropped over 98% from its all-time high of $1.43 in December 2024, now trading near $0.02. L2 sector consolidation Scroll is not alone. Sophon, also on the ZK Stack technology path, has confirmed permanent mainnet shutdown on November 30, with withdrawals ending November 25; Abstract, under Igloo—the parent company of Pudgy Penguins—will shut down on December 15, with the CEO admitting operational losses reaching "eight figures." Both experienced a cliff in activity after fundraising, ultimately choosing to shut down the chain and leave tokens on the Ethereum mainnet. The structural dilemma is that L2 revenue comes from transaction fees, and after deducting L1 data costs and ZK proof generation costs, net income is extremely thin. Sophon estimates annual operating costs exceeding $3 million, while Abstract"Ark Fund Plunges 10% to Scoop Up COIN"
Ark Fund's Cathie Wood once again bought the dip on Thursday against the market trend. The entire U.S. stock market fell, with the Nasdaq dropping over 5%, and Coinbase plummeting nearly 10% in a single day, closing at $136.
On the day of the sharp decline, Ark Fund directly invested $2.44 million, purchasing more than 17,000 shares of Coinbase through its flagship Innovation ETF.
At the same time, Ark Fund sold $4.5 million of peripheral holdings to adjust its positions. The capital flow indicates that large institutions have not lost appetite for the crypto trading sector; the subsequent rebound depends on the overall market stabilizing. $BTC Semiconductor violent rebound: a bottom-fishing opportunity or a window to escape?
After continuous panic selling, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has launched a strong counterattack. SanDisk, Micron, SK Hynix, and Western Digital all rallied together, while AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom also strengthened simultaneously. The sentiment across the entire AI hardware industry chain has clearly warmed up.
✅ Factors supporting the rebound
There are three main points behind this round of gains: First, AMD's earnings exceeded expectations, with Q3 revenue at $13.38 billion, up 45% year-over-year; data center revenue surged 97% to $8.5 billion, and Helios rack orders materialized, providing concrete evidence of computing power demand; second, the previous large declines caused panic selling pressure in the memory sector to concentrate and release, with short covering driving technical recovery; third, the uncertainty of the midterm elections has settled, leading to a phase of risk appetite recovery.
⚠️ Reasons why the rebound is difficult to sustain smoothly
1. Fundamental disagreements remain unresolved: the market still worries about the slowing price increase slope of NAND, the peak of the memory cycle having passed, and doubts whether AI manufacturers' capital expenditures can maintain rapid expansion.
2. Macroeconomic pressure persists: U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the Fed's hawkish expectations have not dissipated, and high-valuation growth stocks continue to face valuation pressure.
3. Regulatory risks loom: expectations of AI computing power export restrictions fluctuate; once tightening signals materialize, the entire industry chain will reprice risk discounts.
📌 Conclusion
This looks more like an oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal. Only if capital volume expands during the rebound to reclaim key resistance levels and U.S. Treasury yields fall simultaneously is a shift possible; if the rally is on low volume and quickly falls back, beware of a secondary bottom test. $SNDK Three separate accounts, don't mix them up (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$XRP: Don't directly treat on-chain transfer amounts as buying volume. The XRPL minimum burn is about 0.00001 XRP, payment costs are too low, so transfer amounts do not equal real buying volume. Whether it can hold steady around 1.30 depends on usage frequency, retention, and adoption continuity; burning is just circumstantial evidence, not the main account (￣▽￣)
$XAU: After rising from 3925.45 to 4059.49, it increased 2.7% in 24h, but only 0.1% in the last 6h, indicating a slowdown in high-level advance. Don't force news explanations for every fluctuation; first see if the pullback expands; as long as the main gains are not given back and there is still volume at high levels, respect the market outcome (•̀ᴗ•́)و
$RENDER: The core is the closed loop of computing power payment. Users burn tokens to exchange for work quotas, nodes provide GPU services to earn rewards, and both task payments and reward distributions must be operational. A 4.3% rise in 24h shows attention, but the real question is the volume of paid tasks; AI narratives must translate into orders for the accounts to be clear (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Summary: XRP looks at usage, gold looks at pullbacks, RENDER looks at orders. Three separate accounts, keep them separate~#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 Buy CRCL in batches, don't bet on funds flowing back from a US stock market crash
Binance stock limit orders have a rule: the buy price must be within 10% of the current price. Last night, taking advantage of CRCL's drop, I placed a limit order to buy CRCL at 60 USDC per unit. The first batch was bought at 80 USDC, planning to buy the second batch at 60, and the last batch at 40. As for further drops after buying at 40, that’s just up to fate.
However, despite the US stock market plummeting yesterday, native tokens and concept stocks actually held up fairly well, with declines within expectations and not as scary as anticipated. I don’t believe that after an AI stock crash or US stock market crash, funds will flow into crypto—that’s pure fantasy. Essentially, only when the big river is full can the small river have water. If the US stock market continues to fall sharply, Bitcoin definitely won’t hold up; it will only fall more, faster, and more violently.
Key points
Limit orders are constrained by the 10% rule; buy CRCL in batches at 80/60/40, and don’t try to guess the bottom after the last batch. Don’t treat a US stock market crash as a positive for crypto; when the big river dries up, the small river can’t fill either. #Anthropic11月IPO计划或面临变数 Latest news: Anthropic, which originally clamored to launch its IPO in November, may now have to cancel those plans. Why? Because investors think the previously touted $1.5 trillion valuation is simply outrageous and unrealistic. Everyone hopes it will offer a big discount, and there are even rumors that the fundraising scale might shrink to $80 billion. On the market, related tokenized stocks have directly plunged 6.16%. My personal view is: Wall Street's old foxes have finally started "settling accounts" with AI giants. In the past, as long as AI was involved and a big model story was told, investors would blindly throw money at it. Now? Everyone realizes this thing is a complete "money pit." Just like Michael Burry, the prototype from "The Big Short," questioned, Anthropic continues to lose money and carries huge AI computing power procurement commitments. Simply put, you spend hundreds of billions of dollars buying GPUs and renting data centers, but the money you earn back isn't even enough to pay the electricity bills. Coupled with the recent bloodbath in the US AI stock sector and the terrible overall environment, who dares to buy at high prices? This is also what I've been emphasizing to my brothers: traditional capital is not charity; once you fail to prove your ability to commercialize and monetize, they turn their backs faster than flipping a page. What’s the impact? In the short term, it’s definitely a heavy blow to sentiment. The US AI stock sector’s crash dragged down Anthropic’s IPO, and this panic will directly spread toIn the current cycle, I definitely choose time progress. Before, I only cared about the depth of the pullback, always thinking that a 30% or 40% drop was the absolute bottom and rushing in was like picking up money. What happened? SanDisk's price dropped steadily from 1900 to 800, brutally teaching me a lesson. Only then did I understand how painful the guest's phrase "The cycle determines direction, not price" really is.
The cycle model fears "slow failure" the most. In today's market, the depth of pullbacks is often a bottomless pit; the real killer move is the "boiling frog" effect over time. You see the price has dropped deep enough to bottom-fish, but the big players slowly wear you down over time, exhausting your bullets and breaking your mindset. I can still hold on when deeply trapped, but now I can't add to my position anymore—that's true despair. I'd rather spend time waiting for the right side to stabilize than guess the bottom on the left side.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX Leverage is back before conviction is. After a 5.1% slide in 24 hours from 80,315, $BTC bottomed at 75,511 and has since moved sideways, yet perpetual futures positioning has already risen 6% and funding has reset to 0.01% with no basis premium at all. That combination is the tell: traders are rebuilding exposure, not rebuilding appetite. Volume has collapsed to roughly one-seventh of prior levels, and 76,155 now stands as the immediate short-term support that will decide whether this is accumul$BTC has returned to just above 75,000, ETH dropped to 2226, and SOL is holding the 90 mark. The voices of bottom-fishing in the background are intensifying again, but I still say: no rush.
Look at a more honest indicator than price, the funding rate. A true oversold rebound rally is often accompanied by the funding rate being pushed to deep negative values, with shorts extremely crowded and a short squeeze providing the fuel. But the current funding rate is still mildly positive, showing neither panic nor capitulation.
In other words, this looks more like a pause in a volume-shrinking downtrend, not the kind of pattern a bottom should have. Bottom-fishing is not about who acts fastest, but who can wait the longest. Without the fuel in place, I'd rather stay on the sidelines and watch.Three famous meme coins, only a prolonged decline remains after the 100x myth 🤔
$LAB: Peaked at 24, then declined for nearly half a year, occasionally rebounding by a few dozen points before continuing to drop. Currently, about $310,000 worth of long positions are trapped, with no obvious signs of a pump.
$RIVER: After two pump waves, it consolidated around 6, then sharply dropped, steadily declining to start with 0, basically no hope of another pump.
$RAVE: Occasionally spikes to stop out short positions, then continues to decline. I've lost quite a bit on this coin anyway, and currently see no clear signs of a pump.
Summary: Most 100x meme coins are one-wave plays; after a surge, they often experience a long decline. Occasional rebounds do not mean a reversal, and blindly bottom-fishing can easily lead to deeper losses Gold has been quite interesting these past two days. Many people instinctively think: with the Middle East still at war and Kyiv in Ukraine experiencing consecutive explosions last night, the risk-off sentiment should have pushed gold prices to the sky. But as soon as the non-farm payrolls came out, gold was slammed down.
The reason is not complicated: the non-farm data exceeded expectations, Federal Reserve officials collectively turned hawkish, and the US dollar index surged 0.74% in one day. Regarding the war, the market no longer prices it as "risk-off" but as "inflation → rate hikes." Once rate hike expectations rise, non-yielding gold is the first to get hit.
So stop using the old intuition of "buy gold when there is war" to place orders. First, watch where US Treasury yields and the dollar are headed; that is the real anchor for gold prices. A piece of news more worth watching than the rise and fall of chip stocks: OpenAI's new round of financing has just received the first 11 billion USD, but the tone of this round is "shrinking," with the valuation cut from the originally planned 1.4 trillion and over 30 billion raised, down to 1.25 trillion and a scaled-down amount.
Lately, I've been focusing on AI, not on which chip is making money or not, but on whether the financing chain fueling this arms race is still smooth. Even the leader itself has started to lower its expectations, and those players relying on leverage to take over data centers will only face tighter times ahead.
Money is the fuel for this machine. When the fuel needs to be conserved, no matter how sexy the story is, the pace has to slow down. To start with the conclusion: The rise of $BTC to $75,747 is not because money is buying everywhere, but because it's lining up in just one place.
I've been watching the order book for quite a while. Coinbase spot buy orders have piled up to $24,939,400, while the sell orders on the other side are only $9,236,500, a difference of $15,702,900 — this gap doesn't look like it's made up by retail investors piece by piece. The monitoring from ChainCatcher forwarded by Liquid247.xyz uses the same standard and looks quite reliable.
Binance spot market naturally has thicker buy orders and thinner sell orders, but the thickness difference is a whole level below Coin, so the dominance isn't there.
So for some market moves, I'd rather not understand them than get involved: on exchanges with thin order books, a single large order can slam the price down and create a pit. The recent inexplicable spikes in $ETH and $ZEC retraced faster than they rose. You can follow the shakeouts, but if you mistake the volatility for buying pressure, you're just digging a hole for yourself.On Friday, semiconductors collectively rebounded after an oversell; AMD surged 11 points in one day, and Micron and SK Hynix also recovered slightly. The long positions I hold in semiconductors saw some relief on the books.
But let me be clear: this is a tactical rebound from overselling, not a reversal of conviction. To use a poker analogy, this move is more like passively calling a small bet on the river to grab a bargain, not a heavy value bet. On Thursday, there was a systemic deleveraging, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping ten points in a single day; on Friday, it bounced three points due to technical overselling. Elasticity never equals a trend.
When it reaches the exhaustion zone of the rebound I recognize, it will turn bearish as expected. For the long positions I have, I’ll reduce them once they recover, no attachment to the fight. What do you think about this semiconductor wave? Is it a true bottom or just a breather?A 10x leveraged long position losing 10% means it's completely wiped out.
The long position in $SOXL was stopped out this week, losing 810,000 U in seven days.
Total assets were cut down to 480,000 U.
How leverage is calculated:
10x means if the price moves 10% against you, your principal is zero.
It's not that it becomes dangerous at a certain price level; there is no margin for error from the start.
Others think that when the support breaks, it's time to buy the dip:ZKC, MMT, and AERO have unlimited total supply with perpetual inflation. No matter how impressive the market cap is, it will gradually lose support and the coin price will face pressure under continuous issuance.
RVN, Celo, and Ronin currently have small market caps but have a hard cap on total supply locked, creating scarcity that accumulates over time, offering long-term appreciation potential.
RVN uses a pure PoW mechanism and cannot be manually rolled back or intervened after theft; Celo builds lightweight mobile finance; Ronin forms a self-contained gaming ecosystem.
ZKC has an annual inflation of about 5.5%, MMT about 7.8%, and AERO about 4.8%. Each year, newly issued tokens continuously flow into the market, diluting the value of existing tokens. It's only been two days since the election results came out, and side effects have already surfaced: 76% of voters oppose building data centers in their communities, and Meta has openly admitted that building new data centers in the future will be more difficult. AI used to be criticized for burning money, but now it's directly being blocked from construction—public opinion has become a new variable. This has caused a split in the US stock market: cloud service providers are rising, data center stocks are falling; under the same AI narrative, some are getting hit while others are profiting. This divergence is worth watching. It indicates that the bottleneck in AI trading is shifting from "whether there is enough computing power" to "whether it can be implemented," and the cost of implementation is being re-priced by public opinion. For the crypto market, this is not a bystander situation—the transmission of risk appetite never distinguishes between markets. Looking back at our side, $BTC is quoted at 76237, with an overnight low touching 75200; $ETH is quoted at 2244, showing a soft trend. The pressure hasn't eased: interest rate expectations are still suppressing, AI regulation is intensifying, buying power is weak, and these three mountains are pressing down together. This is not a single bearish factor but a weak structure under multiple constraints. How will the short term go? Tonight's 9:30 PM non-farm payroll report is the referee. If the data is strong, rate hike expectations will heat up, and 75200 might be tested again, with some even calling for 73000; if the data is weak, there might be a bounce, but don't take it as a reversal—the bad news now is not a single thread but a bundle of ropes. So my view is: don't rush to take sides before tonight. Betting on the data is the least profitable trade; wait for it to land and see clearly before making a move. The real question is not whether the non-farm payroll will save the day, but whether it will be the last straw to break the camel's back. $BTC funding rates are positive on more than 16 exchanges, the market has not completely turned bearish
In a weighted snapshot of 18 exchanges, $BTC has positive funding rates on 16 of them, with an OI-weighted rate of about +0.0050%/8h. The price still fell about 5% in 24 hours. This divergence indicates that long positions have not fully exited. If the funding rate later returns to neutral and OI decline slows, it would more likely indicate risk release completion rather than just a rebound masking crowding.
#VanEck与富兰克林推出含BTC配置的新型ETF #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 CHZ, KAIA, and XPL have no supply cap, with continuous issuance that never stops. No matter how high the market cap is, it cannot withstand the constant influx of new tokens, causing the coin price to be diluted in the long term.
RVN, Celo, and Ronin currently have small market caps but have a fixed total supply cap, creating scarcity that gradually accumulates over time, offering long-term appreciation potential.
RVN relies on proof-of-work consensus, with rules that cannot be altered arbitrarily; Celo focuses on inclusive cross-border payments; Ronin is tailored for GameFi's high-frequency, small-value transaction scenarios.
CHZ has an annual inflation of about 5%, KAIA about 6%, and XPL about 6.2%, with fixed yearly issuance, continuously diluting the value of existing tokens. A pot of high-quality broth simmered for three hours, the guests smell the aroma and order like crazy, but the flame under the stove was quietly turned down one notch—this is the first impression Circle's quarterly report gave me.
Let's start with the main course. Revenue plus reserve income surged 17% to 865 million, exceeding expectations; net profit from continuing operations rose 5% to 226 million. What about turnover rate? USDC on-chain transaction volume jumped 49%, indicating the kitchen's serving speed and customer throughput are fully maxed out, the dining hall is running nonstop. But here's the problem: more guests, yet the average spend per customer is dropping. Reserve income fell 8% against the traffic, down to 658 million, and the reason is clear—the yield on reserve assets is declining.
What do I call this? It's the same pot, the same broth, but fewer chicken bones given. Your broth isn't made by repeatedly adding water; it's made by simmering real ingredients. A decline in reserve yield means the firewood at the stove center is getting wetter, the broth color still looks fine, but the concentration is getting thinner day by day. Restaurants with higher turnover rates fear this most—because they rely on volume to fill plates, once the base broth collapses, the bigger the scale, the more obvious the dilution.
So where did this quarter's growth really come from? Presales. They tied a token presale to the newly launched Arc blockchain, bringing in 182 million, almost supporting the entire increase in "other income." In kitchen terms: these are presale meal vouchers sold on the new store's trial opening day, the cash flow looks good, the books look good, but presale vouchers aren't dishes—they have to be redeemed plate by plate in the future.
This is the real test of timing. You sold out the vouchers today, but can the kitchen serve dishes worthy of those vouchers tomorrow? If yes, that's the new store's grand opening success; if not, it means you've prepaid next year's kitchen workload on this quarter's books. So I see this item not simply as "positive" or "negative," it's more like a pot being preheated—the oil temperature is a bit low, and once you add ingredients, everything sticks.
Then there's XCRCL in the US stock market shaking along. This kind of asset's relationship to the raw material is like the menu photo versus the actual dish served: no matter how good the photo is, it can't replace the taste. The parent company's report is bright, presale income is large, on-chain volume is up; these things mixed in one pot, the cooking is complex, no single indicator can judge the broth's reduction status.
So here's how I plate this quarter for you: the main course is stable, the transaction volume side dish is served beautifully, the aroma is strong; but the broth concentration is quietly thinning, and the remedy spoonful of umami comes from the presale voucher seasoning—it can enhance flavor but can't be the staple food eaten every day.
What really makes me frown isn't the numbers, but the ratio. A kitchen increasingly relying on one-time presales for revenue growth while core reserve yields decline is like shifting the stove's load onto the kitchen's temporary shelf. Guests in the front hall only see the lights and plating, not the increasingly strained beam in the back kitchen. Having worked in this field for twenty years, I know one thing best: the night when turnover is maxed out is precisely the night most prone to accidents—because everyone is busy serving dishes, no one looks back at that circle of fire. #circleq3usdcvolumeup49%The high turnover rate of USDC is worth noting, but on-chain transaction volume does not equal payment scale
Circle
Q3 disclosed an average USDC circulation of $73.3 billion and on-chain transaction volume of $13.9 trillion; company presentation materials estimate a quarterly turnover of about 190 times. High turnover may include trading, clearing, and repeated transfers, and cannot be directly equated with consumer payments. The long-term value of $USDC depends on real settlement scenarios, compliant channels, and redemption stability.
#Stripe stablecoin payments cover more than 160 markets #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 The Senate timer is still running, and the pawn in the center of the board that is being restrained hasn't moved for three turns—the "Clear Act" is stuck in the midgame, with neither side willing to make the first move, because whoever moves first will expose their pawn chain structure.
From my perspective, the real deciding factor has never been the immediate move, but the moment the opponent changes their strategy. The midterm elections mark the countdown in time control: once the seats change, the evaluation of the entire shifting tree is recalculated, and what was originally a draw line calculated to the fifteenth move suddenly becomes an endgame that must be fought.
Now the House Democrats are setting a new pattern backstage: shifting some of the referee power from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to the Securities and Exchange Commission. This is not a simple piece exchange; it’s like forcing your fortress bishop from an open file to a closed square—no loss of material, but the mobility is drained. Then three layers of blockade come down: tighter decentralized finance rules, enhanced investor protections, and restrictions on officials holding tokens themselves. The first two are blockades, the last is a preventive move, specifically targeting the "dual-role king" who acts as both player and referee.
The most critical point: the official text has not yet been finalized. Don’t rush to calculate twenty moves ahead when the map isn’t complete. The professional habit is to first confirm whether the opponent’s pawn chain has weak squares before discussing piece exchanges—now even the square coordinates are shifting, so any long calculation is just speculation in thin air.
Look again at that tokenized US stock target. Essentially, it’s a hanging pawn: one line is restrained by "who will referee," and the other line is restrained by the volatility of the US stock itself. The most dangerous piece on the board is not a strong piece, but the kind that looks flexible but must ask the referee for permission before every move—its freedom is borrowed and can be revoked at any time. In the midgame, restrained pieces do not participate in the attack, only in the countdown.
I have seen too many players make the same mistake in this situation: misreading "rules not yet determined" as "no rules." The former is an empty board; the latter is a hidden reef.
Before the rules are settled, all the elegant calculations about this token are just counting squares on a board without coordinates—and I only place my hand on the pieces on squares I have personally confirmed. #cryptoregulationwatch#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元
Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of approximately $1.12 billion over the past 7 days, equivalent to 14,117 BTC, marking five consecutive trading days with outflows exceeding $1 billion. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $76,000, retreating nearly 6% from above $80,000, hitting a seven-week low.
The sequence is crucial: it’s not that the coin price fell first causing people to flee, but rather tech stocks first slashed valuations, institutions reduced risk exposure, and ETFs, being the easiest instruments to enter and exit, became the first outlet for the flood. On November 5, the Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day outflow of $430 million, with Fidelity’s FBTC alone losing about $200 million. ETF outflows then triggered on-chain leverage liquidations exceeding $1 billion within 24 hours, nearly 90% of which were long positions, accelerating the price decline.
Traders are currently watching the $77,000 level: Bitcoin must reclaim this level and see ETFs return to consistent net inflows to prove that buying demand has truly returned; if U.S. stocks continue to fall, $75,000 may face another test.$BTC $ETH $SNDK 127.5%—When this number hit the market, my first reaction wasn’t the financial report, but radar echoes: a precipitation band far stronger than the model expected is rapidly moving northward along the data center’s moisture channel, with the core echo area already showing purple.
Setting records for six consecutive quarters is typical of a sustained heavy rainfall process in meteorology, not an isolated convective cell. A single thunderstorm comes and goes quickly; only a stable circulation pattern can fill the rain gauge six times in a row. More importantly, net profit turned positive on a GAAP basis—this is like the cloud base finally rising after days of gloom, visibility recovering from less than one kilometer to over ten kilometers, stability shifting from unstable to weakly stable, and the subsiding inversion overhead being broken.
Breaking it down by segment, data center revenue grew 254.2% year-over-year to 156 million, which is the main rain band, not scattered showers. The capacity expansion of 800G and 1.6T optical modules I interpret as upstream reservoir expansion: the reservoir capacity has increased, but flood discharge capacity, yield, and delivery rhythm must keep pace; otherwise, when the flood season arrives, water will be held back midstream, and downstream will still not receive effective runoff. The 270 million in Q3 is actual observation, while the 385 to 420 million in Q4 is my most conservative extrapolated forecast. Members of the ensemble forecast have already begun to diverge; the disturbance source lies in the slope of capacity ramp-up and customer concentration. At this point, relying on a single deterministic forecast is risky; what matters is the probability density.
Looking at linked assets, tokenized US stock data is in the downstream confluence area. Heavy rain upstream in the mountains does not immediately cause a flood peak downstream; there is a phase lag—the moisture must first fill the river channel’s storage capacity. This lag is on the order of one to two trading days, and the final flood peak height depends not on upstream rainfall itself but on the entire pressure field, i.e., the market’s risk appetite and liquidity gradient. If the overall situation is dominated by strong high pressure and subsiding airflow, no matter how much it rains upstream, downstream may only see dry thunder.
I will issue only one judgment: the main rain band has entered the local upstream area, the shear line has not yet moved east, the flood peak arrival window remains unchanged, and the magnitude still depends on the downstream river channel’s flood discharge capacity. #aaoiq3revenueup128%Five little-known facts, each of which can explain why you lose money.
1. 100x leverage does not mean liquidation only after a 1% drop, but liquidation occurs after a 0.5% drop.
100x means a 1% margin, but there is also maintenance margin and fees. BTC's maintenance margin rate is about 0.4%-0.5%, so the actual liquidation price is around -0.5%.
The same applies to 20x: it's not actually -5%, but about -4.5%.
2. Fees will eat up half of your principal in a year.
Assuming you use 10% of your funds each time with 10x leverage, the nominal position equals your entire principal. The one-way fee is 0.05%, so opening and closing a position once costs 0.1%.
Two trades a day equals 0.2% daily. Over 250 trading days, 50% of your principal goes to the exchange.
You lose to fees before you even lose to the market.
3. Funding rate is an invisible holding cost.
0.01% every 8 hours, three times a day, about 11% annually.
Long-term longs pay an 11% "position tax" per year. Even if the market doesn't move, you still lose.
4. Adding to a position with unrealized profits raises your average cost.
Buying 10,000 U at 10U, then adding 10,000 U at 20U, the average price becomes 15U.
If the price pulls back 25%, your unrealized profit turns into an unrealized loss.
Adding to a position amplifies both gains and costs simultaneously; it does not amplify gains for free
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #Stripe稳定币付款覆盖160多市场
I believe the strategic significance of this news is huge, even more noteworthy than some DeFi protocols launching new features.
But first, a point that is easy to misunderstand needs correction:
Stripe's focus this time is on expanding stablecoin cross-border payouts, not enabling merchants in over 160 global markets to directly accept stablecoin payments.
On October 16, 2026, Stripe officially announced the expansion of Global Payouts, allowing businesses to send stablecoins to recipients in more than 160 markets. In early November, a public preview for external crypto wallet receipts was opened to eligible U.S. businesses.
I think this is the most important part of the whole matter to study.
What problems do ordinary businesses need to solve if they want to do stablecoin payments themselves?
Wallet infrastructure
Multi-chain compatibility
Stablecoin exchange
On-chain transaction fees
KYC, KYB, and anti-money laundering
Fund custody and security
Cross-border payment compliance
This is very costly for ordinary businesses.
Stripe's approach is to package these capabilities into a unified financial API.
Businesses only need to integrate with Stripe to use related fund management and payment capabilities.
This actually reveals a trend:
The large-scale commercial application of blockchain in the future is likely not that users actively use blockchain, but that users are using traditional financial products whose underlying operations are already running on blockchain.$BTC
The 500 euro threshold doesn't sound high, but what really made me stop is how "swaps" are recognized in this Greek tax law. Once the annual net income exceeds the threshold, reports say it may be taxed at 10% on the entire income; staking, lending, and DeFi liquidity income are separately taxed at 15%.
BTC will of course be involved, but the hardest thing to judge now is not the tax rate, but whether operations like swapping BTC for ETH and then for stablecoins will be considered a taxable disposition. The wording of the bill still leaves room for interpretation, and the government has said it will provide implementation guidelines later.
I don't see this as a short-term negative. Before the rules are detailed, don't directly apply the 10% in the headline to every transaction; the scope of cross-currency swaps is what really needs to be watched going forward.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 💥SNDK Long Position Review: Boss Eleven's 10x Full Position Long Loss and Exit
Monitoring shows that Boss Eleven's $SNDK perpetual long positions have all been closed. This position was a 10x full position long, opened in the early hours of November 3rd and fully closed by the evening of November 5th.📉
Opening average price was 1096.6, closing average price was 894.5, with a maximum holding of 4223.72 SNDK, all positions eventually exited. A loss of 863,947.53 USDT was realized, with a return rate of -186.52%, a notably severe drawdown.😮💨
From the results, the long direction was completely opposite to the market trend, with continuous decline combined with high leverage significantly amplifying the losses. Even choosing to hold the position waiting for a rebound did not bring the expected recovery, forcing a stop loss exit.⚠️
For someone accustomed to swing trading, this is undoubtedly one of the heavier recent drawdowns. Contract leverage leaves very little room for error, and the risk of holding against the trend is extremely high. This trade serves as a warning to everyone.📉#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 The underlying financial components of DeFi have become relatively mature, but the overall commercialization and user growth of DeFi have not matured in sync. Currently, DeFi seems to have entered a phase of growth stagnation, capital redistribution, and business model selection.
From the perspective of ordinary users' experience, saying that DeFi development is stagnant is not an illusion.
Binance Research's semi-annual report released in July 2026 points out:
In the first half of 2026, DeFi TVL dropped by 38.7%
Active lending volume decreased by 38%
There were 207 security incidents in the entire DeFi industry, resulting in losses of approximately $972 million
General-purpose Layer 2 user operations declined by about 77% from January to June 2026
These data indicate that DeFi is facing not just a simple price decline, but simultaneous pressure on capital, lending activity, and user engagement.
Most DeFi products currently still revolve around several core businesses:
Collateralizing assets to lend stablecoins
Providing liquidity to earn fees
Staking assets to earn yields
Using leverage to amplify capital efficiency
I believe what is truly lacking is a new type of financial product that can break through the original crypto-native user circles.
For example, why should ordinary users use DeFi instead of directly using banks, brokerages, or centralized exchanges?
This question has yet to be adequately answered
$UNI $AAVE #US October Nonfarm Payrolls Exceed Expectations, December Rate Hike Bets Heat Up
Big players' positions turn green! Triple positions simultaneously see floating profits decline.
$BTC, $ETH, $SOL triple positions simultaneously show narrowing floating profits; the previously dominant short combination begins to face a rebound test, and market sentiment shifts from "trend acceleration" to "capital repricing."
📊 Position Status
✅ BTC | Short | 30X Full Position
Position: -482.74 BTC
Position Value: $36.7437 million
Unrealized P&L: +$84,700
Funding Fee: +$3,095
Entry Price: $76,290.4
Mark Price: $76,274.1
✅ ETH | Short | 25X Full Position
Position: -3,464.69 ETH
Position Value: $7.7516 million
Unrealized P&L: +$200,000
Funding Fee: +$18,200
Entry Price: $2,295.01
Mark Price: $2,234.17
✅ SOL | Short | 20X Full Position
Position: -57,500 SOL
Position Value: $5.1509 million
Unrealized P&L: +$309,000
Funding Fee: +$16,400
Entry Price: $95.024
Mark Price: $90.64I've always been puzzled by something: the crypto community eagerly awaits favorable policies every day, but the U.S. pushes legislation whose stated purpose is, among other things, to "restrict Trump's crypto policies."
In other words, this bill is half about setting rules for the industry, and half about the two parties fighting and using crypto as a battleground.
For those of us holding $BTC, we don't even count as supporting characters in this narrative; we're just a backdrop.
Rules themselves are a good thing, but when they come, they're handed over after others have negotiated the terms.
So don't rush to call a bull market; first see clearly who is writing the rules.