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🔥BTC retraces about 40%! $75,000–$77,000 could be the most critical stress test in this market cycle! 🔴 Reasons for the decline: BTC has sharply retraced from the October high, no longer just ordinary volatility. Leveraged funds are being liquidated en masse, ETF funds continue to flow out, combined with weakness in US tech stocks, high-beta assets are being sold off, further amplifying the drop. 🔵 Key levels: $75,000–$77,000: core support observation zone; if it stabilizes here, there is a chance for an oversold rebound. $70,000: next reference level after a confirmed daily close below support. $65,000: a deeper potential support area. 🟡 What to watch for a rebound? First, whether the US AI stock sector can stop falling; second, whether BTC spot ETF fund flows can turn from negative to positive; third, whether contract leverage has been sufficiently cleared. 🟢 My judgment: BTC's mid-term logic has not completely disappeared, but halving and supply contraction are slow variables and cannot prevent short-term liquidity shocks. It now looks more like a bottom validation phase rather than a clear buy-the-dip signal. ⚠️ $77,000 is not a confirmation point for trend reversal. Without regaining and holding key levels and continuous inflows of spot funds, any rebound should be treated as a corrective rally. Avoid blind bottom-fishing or high-leverage long positions. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $BTC $ETH $SOL The week started with futures opening slightly higher, but the market is still digesting last Friday's sharp drop in tech stocks. S&P futures rose about 0.3%, Nasdaq futures were up 0.4%, and Dow futures followed with an increase of about 0.2%. This is not a confirmed rebound, just a breather after last Friday's big drop. Last Friday, the S&P fell 1.82% to 7580, Nasdaq dropped 2.86%, marking the largest single-day decline since June. The real sell-off was in AI-related assets: Intel plunged nearly 29% in one day, Nvidia fell over 4%, and the semiconductor sector was hit hard. Actually, nine sectors closed in the green, led by energy and consumer staples; the funds were just unloading high-investment, high-valuation tech first. This week, there are two key things to watch: first, whether AI spending can be justified, and second, whether political outcomes will add more pressure on tech. After Monday's close, Apple will report earnings; it is currently the world's most valuable company and the only one among the Big Seven to outperform the S&P this year. Tuesday is the midterm election; the market will open as usual, but volatility will increase after the results. On the same day after the close, AMD will also report; Intel has just been questioned, and the market wants to see if there are widespread issues in the chip supply chain. Friday is the October nonfarm payrolls report, with an expected increase of about 50,000 to 60,000 jobs; employment data will determine whether the Fed still has room to raise rates by year-end. Regarding the election, the Democrats have a higher chance of taking the House, while the Senate is nearly a toss-up. The market has already priced in a certain degree of divided government. Historically, the S&P tends to strengthen after midterms, but this year is different because AI spending itself is under scrutiny. If the Democrats control Congress, data center approvals and tech regulations may tighten, which will directly impactOn the first full trading day after Binance was hacked, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $643 million, with the entire month of October turning into a net outflow of about $516 million. Institutional funds did not take advantage of the chaos to buy the dip but instead withdrew to observe. ETFs are the main holders in this round of the market; once net inflows turn into sustained net outflows, the depth of spot buying will be thinned, making rebounds more susceptible to selling pressure. Focus on two short-term points: whether the single-day net outflow is an event-driven pulse or will continue as a trend; and whether leading products like BlackRock and Fidelity are also experiencing simultaneous outflows. If the outflow lasts only a day or two and is quickly replenished, it is an emotional disturbance; if there are consecutive days of net outflows combined with abnormal activity from the hacked addresses, BTC’s recovery rally will clearly lack support. Don’t treat a single data point as confirmation of a trend reversal, but the signal that institutions are shrinking their risk exposure cannot be ignored. The related asset BTC is biased to the downside. Source: Decrypt Are you more concerned about whether the single-day outflow will continue, or whether leading products are also experiencing simultaneous outflows? The views and opinions in the following article all come from the ten major goals of the big whale $BTC. I originally didn't want to post a new thread alone, but since many people have been following my views, I'm posting here to say the following. First, I previously believed that 7.8 was unbreakable (and the facts proved my point correct, as it hovered above 7.9 until the black swan event, after which it broke the 7.8 level). So my own action was to close two-thirds of my long positions at As of November 2, 2026, $BTC Bitcoin traded near $78,000, with a slight intraday increase but still down about 3% compared to a week ago. Market sentiment remains in the "fear" zone, with the Fear and Greed Index around 34-35, indicating relatively fragile investor confidence. Compared to the historical high of about $126,000 reached in October 2025, the current price has retraced approximately 38%. Core suppressing factors: heavy trapped positions above The key technical reason for the weak price rally is the massive supply resistance in the $85,000 to $87,000 range. • Long-term holders trapped: On-chain data shows that a large number of long-term investors holding for over 155 days have cost bases concentrated between $85,000 and $118,000, involving about 4 million BTC. More than half are currently at unrealized losses, and if the price rebounds near their cost lines, the selling pressure to break even will be very heavy. • ETFs also under pressure: The average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is around $81,500 to $82,000, currently also at unrealized losses, which further reinforces the effectiveness of this area as a resistance level. • Historical validation: Sell orders above $87,000 have repeatedly killed rebounds this year; after touching this area twice before, prices fell by 25% or even larger declines. Capital flow divergence: ETF inflows vs. spot weakness It is impossible for the Republican Party to sweep both chambers; at most, they can hold one seat. Buying into such an event is a risk-free arbitrage.US stocks plummeted, A-shares plummeted Intel and Google plummeted The panic index surged Historically, there have only been 3 VIX gaps that were not filled, on April 14, 2025, April 8, 2026, and yesterday's gap Historical data shows the probability of filling the gap within 180 trading days is about 97% I started bottom-fishing US stock indexes, buying more as they fall, only buying spot, no leverage, but I avoid A-sharesMacro data, not a hacker headline, did the damage. $BTC slid to 77,732 as strong GDP and sticky PCE readings revived the case for higher-for-longer rates. The move looks like a leverage flush rather than a fundamental break: more than $1.3 billion was liquidated across the market in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 86% of the damage. When positioning gets that one-sided, a solid economic print becomes a wrecking ball for crowded bullish bets. The tell is in the flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs still #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 Interest rate hike expectations reverse. On October 29, although the Federal Reserve held steady (3.75%–4%), the market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in December has surged to about 75%. High interest rates push up the dollar and real interest rates, continuously suppressing non-yielding gold and silver — safe-haven funds simply chose higher-yielding, more “solid” U.S. Treasuries instead of precious metals. Margin call stampede. After the tech stock crash, institutions prioritized selling the most liquid assets to cover margin calls — precisely gold and silver. So the decline is not about gold’s long-term logic, but about position and liquidity technicals. Stop-loss chain reaction. Gold prices consecutively broke below 4000 and 3900 levels, triggering programmatic stop-loss orders and trend-following funds to exit, reinforcing the downtrend.#Triển vọng báo cáo tài chính Palantir: Tăng trưởng cao có thể hỗ trợ định giá cao không $BTC rebounded from 76200 to 78200. This weekend's recovery seems to have given the bulls some breathing room, but the absence of volume makes everything suspicious. After consecutive sharp drops on Thursday and Friday, a technical correction over the weekend is not uncommon — but the problem is that this rebound lacks confirmation from major capital. The price increase on shrinking volume looks more like an ineffective fluctuation rather than a signal of trend reversal. This is precisely the narrative that the current market should be wary of: the "quality" of the rebound is far more important than the "magnitude" of the rebound. Aggressive shorts have tentatively entered around the 78000 level, and what is more intriguing is the subtle shift in market sentiment — more and more people are starting to view the weekend's recovery as the starting point of the next wave of selling pressure rather than a confirmation of the bottom. When "shorting on rallies" shifts from a minority view to a budding collective consensus, the crowd may be underestimating two things: first, the self-reinforcing effect of short momentum after a low-volume rebound; second, the chain reaction triggered once the psychological level of 72000 is tested. From the market structure perspective, the sharp drops on Thursday and Friday have already disrupted the short-term upward rhythm, and the weekend's low-volume recovery failed to rebuild any effective support. If selling pressure continues as expected next week, 72000 will become the position bulls must defend at all costs — and that level is precisely the "re-entry" zone many are waiting for. In other words, the shorts' target and the bulls' entry point are converging into the same price range, and this consensus itself will intensify the battle in that area. A judgment worth quoting: a low-volume rebound is not a reversal, but the next move of the shorts."$HYPE, how is it?" — +221.48%, down 4.4297%, price 87.833. The numbers are consistent. "How much does it need to rise to break even?" — 4.63% (87.833 → 91.904). "What is its relationship with WLD?" — Same batch. Opened 41 minutes ago, both with 50x short, both just dropped 4%–5%, both made into OKX posters. The same move repeated twice. "Is there any problem with this?" — Yes: they most likely rise and fall together. You think they are two opportunities, but actually it's one exposure bet twice. When the market rebounds, both will retrace together — the tolerance levels are 5.54% and 4.63%, almost hit simultaneously. "So what should be done?" — Don't treat them as two separate accounts. Handle them together: push both to break even, first lock the thinner one (HYPE 4.63%). "Deadline?" — 91.904. "Add more positions?" — No. It has already dropped 4.43%, chasing shorts now carries the highest risk. $BTC $ETH #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $OL, 10x short position, entered at 0.006816, 0.006425, profit +57.36%. The 10x leverage here only did one thing: it widened the gap between "reset to zero" and "break through." When the price rose back to 0.006816, the floating profit reset to zero; then it continued to rise to around 0.00750, which is the theoretical boundary for 10x — calculated by entry price, there is about a 10% gap in between. That gap generates no profit; its only purpose is that after the price returns to cost, you don’t have to rush to be stopped out by a small spike. The most frustrating thing about high leverage positions is not losing, but being stopped out right as it resets to zero; this position doesn’t have that close-to-the-edge feeling, so it can be managed calmly according to the plan. Follow-up strategy: first reduce the position to a level where breaking even is not painful, then decide where to set the lines. Leave a small spike margin between 0.006650~0.006700 for the trigger line; if it drops below 0.006400 (around 61), move the protection down to 0.006300; if it rises above 0.006700, close the position immediately. For every 0.0000682 (1%) increase, reduce 10 points; use this scale to backtrack where to take profit, don’t just "wait and see." $BTC $ETH #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 Funds have not returned; the rebound is just a correction 🧭 Price bouncing up does not mean new funds have entered the market. Looking at capital flows, $BTC and $ETH are still bleeding, while $SOL is attracting funds. The three moving in two different directions on the same day is itself worth noting. For BTC, contract net outflow is 157 million, spot outflow is 43.09 million. Both markets moving simultaneously looks more like existing funds being replenished rather than new money coming in. ETH is similarly weak, indicating mainstream assets have yet to see coordinated capital inflow. 📉 SOL is different: contract outflow is 6.47 million, spot inflow is 40.79 million. Leverage is withdrawing while spot is buying, implying a net inflow of about 34.32 million. One is deleveraging, the other is absorbing spot; structurally, SOL is more resilient than BTC. 💡 So don’t rush to define this market move. BTC failing to hold 78,000 can only be considered a correction; SOL holding 94 is needed for the next chapter. Wait for BTC to reclaim 78,000, then see if funds follow. 👀 In short: the rebound is a price signal; funds are the confirmation signal. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 That pre-market spike, the drop hit those with pending orders $SNDK plunged from 1201 pre-market with a spike down. After the earnings report, on the first full trading day, the probability of a rise is only 10%. How this number is calculated: Probability is not a prediction; it’s the proportion of times the price rose in past similar situations. When the sample size is small, 10% and 0 are effectively the same. Been caught in the same trap: Pre-market order book is thin, a single sell order can create a long lower shadow. Stop-loss orders placed below 1200 get completely swept by that spike. The earnings report itself hasn’t changed; what changed is no one is taking the other side pre-market. The real opening price is only set during the official trading session. That pre-market spike swept pending orders, not valuation. #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% $SNDK Many friends ask me: Starting from the peak of $122,000 in October last year, why has BTC only returned to $78,000 now, but your real trading account has already turned profitable? The answer is all in the table below: • Frenzy period from $110,000 to $122,000 (31 days): invested only 200U daily defensively, buying just 0.053 BTC (3.1% of total holdings); • Extreme panic period from $60,000 to $71,000 (121 days): consistently invested full 400U daily to bottom-fish, accumulating 0.7296 BTC (42.7% of total holdings); • Bottom consolidation period from $71,000 to $80,000 (130 days): main force added 350U daily, accumulating another 0.6035 BTC (35.3% of total holdings). Final result: Total invested $130,000 U, accumulated 1.7100 BTC (57.0% of the 3 $BTC target), the average holding cost was forcibly lowered to $76,023.39, current real account floating profit +$3,526.72 (+2.71%) 📈 Long-termism is not blindly playing dead, but "a continuous cash flow outside the market + the discipline to buy more aggressively the more panic there is in the market." For the next 400 days, keep watching the table speak! 👇1281.47 short $ZEC, 50x leverage, target 1221.06, floating profit of 235 points. After several fluctuations on the left side of the chart, the middle section pulled out the highest segment of the entire chart, then failed to return, with each high point lower than the previous one. It surged up but couldn't hold, indicating the buy orders above were eaten up and there were no more buyers to take over. This confirmation is what I was waiting for, so I didn't rush to enter at the peak surge—that moment to enter would mean being the one lifted. Missing some profit is fine; standing at the top of a false breakout is the real trouble. Follow-up strategy: Since entry was made after the confirmation of "high points being pushed lower," the exit uses the same measure: 1230 (approx. 201) is the first line; breaking below 1210 (approx. 279) indicates the suppression continues, and the protection line moves down accordingly; once it stands back above 1250 (approx. 123), the premise of "high points progressively pushed lower" no longer holds, so exit immediately without reinterpreting the chart. $BTC $ETH #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Apple's new CEO receives the first performance report for iPhone 18, really made me laugh😹😹😹 I was already pushing SanDisk to the 100u level, but then a wallet got lost? #SanDisk's performance exceeded expectations and announced a stock split, stock price dropped over 13% The market pricing has already overwhelmingly bet on the Democrats sweeping both chambers, with a 70% probability fully priced in. If in the end the Democrats do take both chambers, it would be a positive outcome realized, likely leading to a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario, with funds taking profits after the good news is confirmed, causing tech and storage sectors to spike and then pull back sharply. But if the result deviates from this mainstream expectation, for example, if the Republicans take one chamber, it would be a busted expectation, directly impacting current pricing and causing very volatile fluctuations. Looking at our holdings in $SOXL, $SKHY, and $SNDK: this event is a huge uncertainty bomb. The market has already priced in the most optimistic scenario, so set your defense positions in advance to avoid having this big chunk of gains swallowed by the election results. #Palantir财报前瞻：Can high growth support a high valuation? JPMorgan gave a clear positive signal before the earnings report. On October 30, JPMorgan initiated coverage with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of $262, placing Palantir on the "Positive Catalyst Watchlist." The core logic is that enterprises are shifting from "exploring AI" to "pursuing actual returns," and Palantir has taken the lead in delivering this. This is direct evidence of a relatively optimistic institutional stance before the earnings release. The variables to watch remain unchanged but do not constitute a reversal. The Q2 revenue growth base of 93% is extremely high, and the Q3 guidance implies the lowest recent sequential growth rate (about 12%). Meanwhile, the company warns that Q3 operating expenses will rise due to hiring and product investments, and international commercial revenue only grew 2% quarter-over-quarter last quarter. However, these represent risks of "possible growth slowdown," not a direct threat of "EPS falling below $0.42." Overall, consensus has not been revised above $0.43, indicating the market has not fully priced in expectations; given the threshold requires only 2.4% sequential growth, Palantir’s ability to exceed expectations by this margin is historically strong.China's AI and chip industries are showing three different growth trajectories: some are pushing into high-end manufacturing, some are investing in R&D for the future, and others are beginning to face operational pressures brought by product surges. Changxin Memory's HBM3E samples have already been delivered to domestic chip design companies. Although the current yield rate is only 20%–30%, limited production is planned within two months. Its conventional memory business is enjoying another wave of benefits: Q3 revenue reached ¥11.871 billion, net profit ¥5.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 613.2%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 19.3%. Global memory manufacturers shifting more capacity to high-value products have also created room for price increases in conventional memory. Yushu presents a different scenario. Q3 revenue grew 69.9% to ¥665 million, but net profit attributable declined 17.4% to ¥112.7 million. R&D expenses increased by about 250%, and gross margin dropped to 50.6%. Revenue is still growing, but profits are under pressure, clearly indicating accelerated R&D investment. Kimi K3.1 Pro from Moon's Dark Side pushes the context window to 1 million tokens and promises to open full weights on November 4. However, initial launch experienced throttling and extra quota consumption issues; the team later apologized and restored one-quarter of the monthly quota to subscription users.On Monday morning, did everyone see that BTC slightly bounced and started wondering if it was time to rush in and bottom-fish? First, look at the order book data. Do you think those thousands or tens of thousands of buy orders at the bottom are there to support the price? Wake up, those are often traps set by manipulative traders! $BTC current price 78337, order ratio 65 to 35, the buy side looks strong, especially around 76000 where there is a massive buy order of over ten million USD holding firm, but don’t forget, right above at 78055 there is a sell wall. This tactic of placing huge buy orders below and setting pressure above is designed by the main players to stabilize your emotions, making you think the price won’t fall further. Once retail investors rush in, they can cancel orders and dump the price in a flash. Next, $ETH current price 2274, buy ratio 59 to 41, with over seven million USD supporting at 2187 below, but there is a thick sell pressure wall at 2300 above. This kind of movement with a hard ceiling above and a sponge below means without big money and real capital coming in, dreaming of a V-shaped rebound is just wishful thinking. Finally, $SOL current price 94.4, after breaking below the 100 mark, the order ratio is 57 to 43, with over four million USD defending at 93 below. But looking closely, sell orders start to appear near 94.15 above. In a downtrend, this level of buy orders is just a dying struggle. If the market shakes a bit, it will have to probe lower. Summary: Order book placements and cancellations are just tricks by the main players. Liquidity is average on Monday morning, so don’t blindly chase just because the buy orders at the bottom look thick. Are you planning to buy the dip at today’s open, or wait until this wave of sentiment releases before making a move? #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 This is not an ordinary callback; this is the main coronary artery suddenly spasming during surgery—a single-day drop of 12.64%, equivalent to pushing about $500 billion of myocardium to the brink of ischemia at once. First, look at the vital signs: free cash flow is about negative $9.1 billion, negative for the second consecutive quarter. This is not simply a preload deficiency, but continuous leakage at the return end; rapid expansion of cloud services is like collateral circulation desperately compensating, but the sharp rise in intelligent computing capital expenditure is equivalent to increasing myocardial oxygen consumption; the slowdown in search advertising growth is the coronary perfusion pressure dropping. Together, these three factors mean blood pressure can still hold, but lactate is already rising. Investment banks lowering target prices is like an intraoperative frozen pathology suddenly reinterpreted: the margins look clean, but infiltration is seen under the microscope. Some institutions maintain positive ratings—not a contradiction, but a divergence between blood pressure and tissue perfusion on the monitor—the large vessels are still pulsating, but the periphery is already cold. A single-day market value loss of about $500 billion is equivalent to blocking the aorta without extracorporeal circulation; any compensation is limited. Third-quarter cloud growth is a bright spot, but a bright spot does not equal perfusion. If revenue growth is swallowed by capital expenditure, it is like increasing stroke volume without increasing coronary perfusion; the myocardium is still starving. The market's disagreement over returns on intelligent computing investment essentially reflects a disagreement over myocardial oxygen supply and demand balance: on one side, capital expenditure continues to increase oxygen consumption; on the other, free cash flow cannot provide sufficient perfusion. The price plunge is just ventricular premature beats on the ECG monitor; the real lesion lies in the cash flow and capital expenditure gap. The US stock market itself is the myocardium; the tokenized linked target is peripheral perfusion. When the extracorporeal circulation pump pressure fluctuates, the periphery cools first, not the aorta. The most dangerous aspect of this post-operative round for Alphabet is not the single-day drop, but the continuous negative free cash flow depleting coronary reserve to the critical point; no matter how good cloud growth is, if it cannot be converted into cash flow, it is like collateral circulation cannot replace reopening the main artery. What is needed now is a coronary angiography-style cash flow breakdown, not emotional defibrillation of monitor numbers. If free cash flow still cannot turn positive next quarter, and the capital expenditure curve continues to rise sharply, this is perfusion failure requiring a second open-chest surgery, not monitor noise that can be masked by vasopressors. #googlepostearningsdrop This morning I saw US stock futures open high, and I thought the crypto market would follow suit, but then I noticed gold was also rising while crude oil was falling. That's a bit strange. The stock index rising means some people are willing to bet; gold rising means some are still fearful; Brent crude is weakening around $112, and the USD/JPY has climbed above 157.65. All three rising together isn't three good signs, but three groups buying separately, none willing to bet in the same direction. So don't expect $BTC to move in a straight line. When it rises, it's a risky asset; when it falls, it becomes a cash-out machine, making it easy to get hit from both sides. $SOL is more volatile, and sharp spikes will only be fiercer. I'm not chasing it.At the very moment $710 million was pocketed, trading revenue was cut by 44%—this is not a recovery, it's a textbook piece exchange executed by the player in the midgame. In this game of Coinbase, the move is a classic sacrifice of the rook to save the bishop. Two consecutive quarters of losses are pawns deliberately offered during the setup phase, exchanged for a fair value revaluation of $715 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings. Look closely, this is not a cash flow checkmate, it's a book piece capture. What grandmasters fear most is mistaking a piece capture for checkmate—no matter how thick the book profit is, it must be seen if it can convert into real pieces that suppress the opponent. Adjusted net profit is only $78 million, which is the real piece difference on the board; the rest are all light pieces hanging in the air. What truly made me put down my pen was another flank: prediction market annualized revenue breaking $200 million, daily traders up 60% month-over-month. This is a classic flank breakthrough. While the main battlefield’s trading revenue bleeds 44%, they quietly advanced a bishop on the unnoticed f-file—quiet but already aimed at the opponent’s king wing. Endgame thinking tells me that when the main battlefield is under pressure, whoever completes piece maneuvering on the flank first holds the tempo from midgame to endgame. As for the market linkage of that US stock token, remember this: tokenized stocks are not new pieces, they are old pieces with a new paint job. Once the underlying asset’s fair value is amplified on-chain, on-chain and off-chain become two intersecting lines of crossfire; linkage is not following, it’s encirclement. Main battlefield losing pieces, book inflation, flank growth—when these three signals light up simultaneously, the player’s instinct is not to celebrate but to pause. Because the next step is to confirm whether the knight just captured on the other side is a sacrificed piece or a decoy. #coinbaseq3profitreturnsDOGE, STRK, and EIGEN have ample inflation space, with tokens continuously expanding, gradually diluting holders' equity and putting pressure on the coin price. Celo, Qtum, and RVN have capped supply, slowed production pace, scarcity thickens over time, accumulating upward momentum. Celo lowers the threshold for stablecoin use, targeting ordinary people worldwide; Qtum integrates Bitcoin's robustness with smart contract capabilities; RVN's issuance rules are fixed, preventing arbitrary inflation.[Apple Earnings Preview: After Memory Price Hikes, How Much Profit Can Still Be Retained?] Finance blogger qinbafrank believes that Apple will release its new quarterly earnings report after the U.S. market closes on November 2. This quarter is very likely to deliver results close to or even slightly exceeding expectations, but the guidance for the next quarter may not satisfy the market. His main reasoning: 1. Apple's product competitiveness remains strong, but rising costs such as memory are genuinely eroding profits. The gross margin for the June quarter was 50.1%, about 48.1% after excluding roughly 2 percentage points of tariff refunds; the September quarter guidance is 47%-48%, only 46%-47% after excluding about 1 percentage point of refund contribution. 2. Intel last week reported quarterly revenue and adjusted EPS exceeding expectations, but the problem lies in next quarter's guidance (weak PC demand, supply constraints, cash expenditures). Apple may face a similar "qualified this quarter, weaker next quarter" scenario. 3. However, the cost structures of the two companies differ greatly: Apple has high-end products, service revenue, and inventory buffers, while Intel must bear the pressure of its own manufacturing system, so the comparison cannot be directly applied. 4. His baseline estimate for this quarter: revenue about $113.8 billion, consolidated gross margin 47.7%, EPS about $2.01, slightly above market consensus; he is more conservative about the next quarter. $AAPL $100 million liquidated, longs once again became the main liquidation targets. In the past 24 hours, a total of 42,900 people were liquidated across the entire market, with a total amount of about $102 million. Among them, long liquidations amounted to $68.8608 million, accounting for 67.4%. Short liquidations amounted to $33.313 million, accounting for 32.6%. The market does not seem to have crashed significantly, but leveraged longs have already been cleared out once. By coin, BTC liquidations reached $16.3911 million, with shorts accounting for 60.6%, indicating that during BTC's oscillation, more shorts were actually wiped out, making it tough for both longs and shorts. ETH liquidations totaled $15.0755 million, with long and short amounts close, showing no clear directional consensus yet. SOL is the most notable, with $4.1213 million liquidated in 24 hours, of which longs accounted for 91.7%, meaning funds chasing rebounds during price weakness suffered the heaviest losses. This indicates the current market is not a one-sided trend, but BTC is sweeping back and forth, ETH continues to tug, and SOL is clearly weaker. The total liquidation scale is not extreme, and leverage has not been fully cleared. Chasing longs in the short term is prone to further downside liquidation, while chasing shorts at low levels requires caution against sudden BTC rebounds. I remain bearish. Currently, my view is that BTC is relatively the most stable, ETH is waiting for direction, and SOL should not be bottom-fished until it reclaims key levels.Big moves are coming $BTC $ETH The direction next week will be determined by the midterm election results, which will likely decide the direction of US tech stocks and btc, eth. There are basically three possibilities: First: Democrats take both chambers (Senate and House), Nasdaq, btc, eth will likely all plunge significantly. Second: Split Congress: Democrats take the House, Republicans take the Senate. In this case, the negative news is priced in, and Nasdaq, btc, eth will likely all spike down then sharply reverse up in a V shape. Third: Republicans take both chambers (less likely), Nasdaq, btc, eth will likely directly V-reverse upwards.US spot BTC ETFs shed $643.2m on 30 October, leaving the month about $516m net negative. IBIT drove October’s inflows, but Friday’s selling hit every major fund. With price 7.5% below the average ETF cost, inflows beyond IBIT would be the first sign of broader demand.Good morning everyone, as soon as the alarm goes off, it's time to get up and grind again. On the commute, I casually checked the funding situation. Wow, this market is a perfect match for us workers. Short-term looks like getting a year-end bonus, but long-term it's just still being a beast of burden! $BTC short cycles (4-hour, 24-hour) contracts and spot are all green, with a 24-hour spot net inflow of over 60 million. It looks like a V-shaped rebound, but if you stretch the cycle to the right, the 30-day contract net outflow is 10.1 billion! What does this mean? Short-term funds are wildly speculating inside, while big money has long fled. Don't be the one left holding the bag. $ETH is even more of a pure beast of burden. The 24-hour contract inflow is over 90 million, but 30 days saw an outflow of 9.4 billion. This small short-term money isn't even enough to fill the gaps for the big money. It's a typical short-term bull trap fight; the big trend is still down, so don't get carried away. Interestingly, $SOL, although short-cycle contracts are flowing out, looking back at the spot, the 30-day net inflow stubbornly holds at over 17 million. Seems like some stubborn big holders are quietly accumulating spot chips at the bottom, a bit tougher to beat than the other two brothers, but don't blindly chase it either. To sum up, short-term fund inflows are just for setting the stage, the big cycle outflows are the real bottom line. Monday just opened, watch more and act less, don't gamble your real money on the conscience of dog traders. It's Monday today, are you planning to seize a short-term opportunity or stay out to keep safe? What do you currently hold? "Funding Observation: All Three Coins Lack Fresh Capital, Don't Mistake the Rebound for a Reversal" 🔸$BTC: The Tide Has Not Receded 4-hour spot net outflow of $163 million, contract net outflow of $543 million; 24-hour spot -$1.064 billion, contracts -$3.098 billion; 30-day spot -$1.727 billion, contracts -$10.266 billion. Spot buying support remains weak, leverage continues to shrink, insufficient evidence of stabilization. 🔸$ETH: Short-term Testing, No Mid-term Turnaround 4-hour spot net inflow of $37.06 million, but contracts still outflowing $171 million; 24-hour spot -$116 million, contracts -$2.044 billion; 30-day spot -$3.197 billion, contracts -$9.931 billion. Some short-term capital ignition, but no significant return of big money, so rebound sustainability is discounted. 🔸$SOL: Slightly Lighter Selling Pressure, Leverage Still Withdrawn 4-hour spot -$16.13 million, contracts -$18.66 million; 24-hour spot -$96.31 million, contracts -$305 million; 30-day spot -$58.24 million, contracts -$2.13 billion. The common issue among the three is not who fell more, but the absence of incremental capital. Spot funds are not returning; any rally should be treated as a rebound first. Strategy remains bearish, no rush to guess the bottom, let capital flows give the signal first. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Counterparty theft, will it be positive for OKB? The rise of OKB is not driven by a single factor, but is the result of a triple effect: rigid contraction on the supply side, real growth in on-chain demand, and the injection of external institutional credit. 🔒 Supply side: permanently locked cap, the narrative has completely changed This is the basis for the revaluation of OKB's value logic. ⛽ Demand side: "consumption and staking" scenarios in the X Layer ecosystem OKB's demand scenarios are highly focused on the X Layer Layer 2 network fully developed by OKX: Direct consumption of Gas and on-chain activities: In Q3 2026, the daily average number of EVM transactions on X Layer increased by 262% quarter-on-quarter, DeFi TVL doubled quarter-on-quarter to $173.4 million, and ecosystem application fee income increased by 490% quarter-on-quarter. The more frequent the on-chain activities, the more rigid the consumption and holding demand for OKB as Gas. Staking lock-up brought by Exchange OS: This is a demand "heavier" than Gas. Exchange OS, launched in 2026, allows developers to deploy spot, derivatives, and other trading venues on X Layer, with the prerequisite of staking OKB. This upgrades OKB from a mere "consumable" to "productive capital"—institutions deploying trading venues need to buy and lock OKB long-term to obtain operating qualifications, directly reducing the circulating supply in the secondary market. Just saw that Maji account left with only $1.5 after 8 liquidations has come back again, this time directly depositing $250,000 with 25x leverage to go all-in long on ETH 🍓. Do you think this is the Iron Head Myth reboot, or a trailer for the next liquidation? Honestly, my first reaction to this move wasn’t envy, but a chill down my spine. After being liquidated 8 times in a row, an ordinary person would have deleted the app and gone to do something else, but he didn’t; instead, he made a large deposit and charged in. This rhythm is too familiar—not a calm strategy, but the kind of "I must win it back" spirit after being repeatedly battered by the market. The current account looks good: nearly 3,000 ETH longs, floating profit over $70,000, liquidation price at 2219. But he also has a 10x HYPE long position with a floating loss of $12,000, liquidation price at 56, and he also sold two monkeys to raise funds. Putting these moves together, the picture is clear: it’s not a single faith in going long, but using ETH’s floating profit to cover losses on the other side; the pace is actually quite tight. What concerns me more is the emotional level. When this kind of story spreads, the easiest to ignite isn’t institutions, but retail investors’ little "If he dares, should I take a shot too?" FOMO. Once ETH is pushed by this narrative, short-term risk appetite will warm up, and altcoins will easily get restless. But on the flip side, everyone is focused on that $70,000 floating profit, no one looks closely at the hole on the HYPE side and the 2219 liquidation line. Once ETH retraces near the liquidation zone, the pressure of passive deleveraging will come faster than expected. The bullish path also $SOXL: Compared to the performance after 7 AM this morning (before the Korean stock market opened), Hynix and Samsung opened lower and weaker, SanDisk was slightly better, and SOXL showed the strongest rebound willingness I made several posts about Solana (SOL) in September and October, warning about the excessive buildup of long positions. Now, $SOL is liquidating those bulls. I'm also sharing what happened during the 2022 U.S. midterm elections as a historical reference. Expect plenty of volatility ahead.NEAR, ZKC, and BERA inflation continue to operate, with chip supply continuously expanding, and holders' equity continuously diluted, causing the coin price baseline to shift downward. AVAX, Ronin, and APT have clear supply ceilings, with release pace gradually slowing, and time continuously amplifying scarcity attributes, supporting price appreciation. AVAX features a built-in fee burn mechanism and strong subnet architecture scalability; Ronin is rooted in the GameFi closed loop with strong stablecoin circulation demand; APT has a clear unlocking schedule and a hard cap of 2.1 billion constraining inflation.Global assets collectively hammered: stocks, gold, and crypto all fall, and safe havens no longer work On October 30, the market experienced a "non-discriminatory sell-off." U.S. tech stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all plunged simultaneously; the usual "stocks down, gold up" pattern temporarily failed, with even gold being sold to raise cash for margin calls. The Nasdaq dropped 2.86%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 7.2%. Intel's earnings guidance fell far short of expectations, dropping 28.56% in a single day. Gold fell below $3,900, and silver lost the $50 level. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $78,000, with over $1.1 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours. The only asset bucking the trend was crude oil. An oil tanker was attacked and caught fire; WTI closed above $104, Brent was around $117, both rising over 2%. But rising oil prices are not good news—they reinforce inflation stickiness and tighten expectations for a December rate hike, with traders betting about 75% on it. The trigger was AI earnings reports shifting the "capital expenditure story" back to "when will it be profitable." Intel's guidance collapsed, Amazon's capital spending surged, and the market began questioning the AI return cycle. The risk also spread from equities to credit markets, with Intel's five-year CDS spread widening to historic highs. Next, watch two dates: November 3 midterm elections, after which policy expectations can be recalibrated; and November 6 nonfarm payrolls, which will directly determine whether December rate hike expectations heat up or ease. Before then, stocks, gold, and crypto will all remain under pressure, which may be more worth watching than a "oversold rebound" in any single asset class.📊 Bitcoin’s key cost bases are within 2.6% of each other, the tightest coil since 2012. 4 times in history, this exact compression preceded massive multi-fold moves.ETF money is "changing seats," not "exiting the market" Looking at the capital flow, this is the part most easily misread. On the surface, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $643.2 million on Friday, the largest single-day outflow since June, turning the whole week into a net outflow of $202.4 million. But if you break down the arithmetic, the structure is completely different. FBTC outflow was about $166 million, ARKB outflow about $129.5 million, GBTC outflow about $53.3 million. Meanwhile, BlackRock's IBIT saw a counter-trend net inflow of about $176.9 million. Do you see what this means? This is not "institutions liquidating Bitcoin." This is "the same batch of money moving out of several products and concentrating into the leading products." The willingness to allocate has not been emptied; exposure is concentrating among a few issuers. The inflow to IBIT alone filled most of the gap. But on-chain signals are not as mild as the ETF data. After the price tested 76,000, within 24 hours more than 36,600 BTC in loss positions held by short-term holders were transferred into exchanges. In the previous 7-day window, cumulative transfers to Binance once reached about 45,400 BTC. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 AMD earnings report exceeding expectations is difficult AMD will release its Q3 earnings report after the market closes on November 3, with revenue expected to be about $13.1 billion (upper end of guidance), EPS about $1.95, a year-on-year increase of 62%. Data center revenue may reach $8.27 billion (+90.6%), with MI400/Helios starting to contribute revenue at the end of Q3 as a core validation point. However, weak PC demand and recent stock price selling pressure pose short-term risks, making it difficult to exceed expectations. The key is whether the Q4 guidance can continue the AI narrative. #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 SanDisk: Strong earnings report, don't mistake the cycle peak as a starting point Current price around $1150, dropped over 13% after the earnings report. Short-term support at 1117, if broken next reference is 1040; resistance at 1240–1260 above, only talk about recovery if it stands back at 1330. Institutional target prices range from 2250 to 870, with a fairly consistent approach: upward revision of earnings, downward adjustment of target prices. It's not that they don't believe in current profitability, but they don't believe the 85% gross margin can stay that high. Three uncertainties: NAND price increases are slowing down; profits rely too heavily on data centers, consumer segment is still declining; long-term contracts lock the floor price but not the volume, some clients are renegotiating, and prepayments have also shrunk. Three operational guidelines: if holding cost is above 1300, watch 1117; don't stubbornly hold if it breaks down; don't add if the rebound is weak; stay out and wait for the right side; watch for volume contraction at 1117 and a close back above 1180 before considering; don't catch the falling knife; just observe for now, no rush to decide. Next, watch three things: when NAND contract prices turn negative month-over-month; whether data center proportion can move toward 55%; whether long-term contracts remain just on paper. In short: 1117 is the short-term watershed, NAND price direction is the mid-term watershed. Before signals are clear, don't chase the left side, don't bet on turning points, wait for right side confirmation. This does not constitute investment advice. $SNDK Panic has spread beyond just the spot market; it is now transmitting downward along the pricing chain of options and prediction markets. $BTC is currently trapped within the support zone of 79,000–80,000, with the first threshold it needs to reclaim being 81,000–82,000. What is truly striking are the two figures given by Polymarket: the probability of holding above 80,000 is only 1.2%, while the chance of falling below 70,000 is nearly 99.9%. This is not ordinary caution; this is the derivatives market pricing in a deep correction. Most people only focus on how much the price has dropped, but they overlook that this "almost certain breakdown" odds itself is an extreme sentiment signal. When the prediction market treats the downside as a given fact, marginal selling pressure has often already been pre-absorbed in the order book. Even more interestingly, the on-chain data is not entirely one-sided: large addresses have maintained positions of over 100,000 coins for several consecutive days to buy on the dip, indicating forces at the spot level that clearly diverge from derivatives pricing. This divergence is currently the most important variable to watch. $ETH's situation is even worse than $BTC's. NUPL has slid to 0.0073, almost touching the break-even line, meaning the overall unrealized profit of holders has basically been wiped out. Surrounding funds have seen net outflows for several consecutive days, early ICO participants' selling has not stopped, and yesterday more than ten thousand coins were sold again. Historically, NUPL hitting zero is often seen as a bottom signal, but this time it cannot be mechanically applied—without being able to retake 2,3🥇 When GOLD topped in 2020, liquidity rotated into Bitcoin and sent it from $11,500 to an all time high of $69,000. 📈Gold topped again in January 2026 and is now losing its 12-month support, while Bitcoin is up +34% from its June bottom and holding above $76,000. Is the money rotation from Gold into Bitcoin finally starting?Epic "Blunt Knife Cutting Flesh": Bitcoin Continues to Fall, a Smokeless "Wealth Strangulation Battle" Compared to the shock caused by a single-day plunge, this round of Bitcoin's persistent decline feels more like a smokeless wealth strangulation, known in the market as blunt knife cutting flesh. There are no thrilling liquidation alerts flooding the screen, but day after day it wears down holders' mentality. Every slight rebound is suppressed by heavy resistance from locked-in positions above, and just as hope for a reversal ignites, it dips again. Multiple pressures continue to ease: expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been postponed, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and macro factors continue to suppress risk asset valuations; spot ETF funds keep flowing out, institutional incremental buying is absent, and the most important support force of the bull market quietly withdraws; the custody trust issues left by the Binance hacker incident continue to ferment, users' withdrawal and risk-avoidance behavior has not stopped, and market support keeps weakening. A sharp drop can quickly release panic selling and complete rapid chip exchanges, which tends to foster a phased bottom; under blunt knife-style persistent decline, floating loss accounts accumulate more and more, traders continuously exhaust their patience in the long ordeal, and many choose to painfully exit at low levels after prolonged tug-of-war. To end this strangulation, one cannot rely on short-term small rebounds. It is necessary to wait for ETF funds to return, macro expectations to shift, and selling pressure to be fully cleared with multiple signals resonating. Blindly bottom-fishing before this is very likely to fall into a long period of floating loss consumption. #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI system commercialization progress Risks are concentrated in the tug-of-war between gross margin and business structure. The higher the proportion of data center business, the more obvious the nearly 20 percentage point gross margin gap between AMD and Nvidia (about 56% vs about 75%), with growth businesses actually diluting overall profitability. Meanwhile, impacted by rising memory and component costs, the company previously warned that gaming business revenue in the second half of the year would decline by more than 20% quarter-over-quarter, and the drag of the client and gaming segments on overall growth will become more apparent in Q3. The stock price had already fallen more than 8% before the earnings report due to sector sentiment, but the consensus rating from 55 analysts remains “Strong Buy,” with an average target price of about $640–$664. Susquehanna raised its target price to $650 before earnings, and Aletheia Capital even gave $800. The divergence in pricing itself indicates that market confidence in the “2027 doubling narrative” is uneven.From "panic sell-off" to "wait-and-see volume shrinkage": Bitcoin's drop today is scarier than last night Last night was characterized by a high-volume panic sell-off, with bulls concentrated in forced liquidations and rapid chip exchanges, risk vented all at once, often followed by strong support after the drop; today, the market quietly shifted to a low-volume gradual decline mode, seemingly narrowing the drop but actually hiding greater risks. The truth behind the volume shrinkage is not that selling pressure is exhausted, but that both buyers and sellers are lying flat: aggressive shorts no longer actively sell off, but funds originally waiting to bottom-fish are collectively watching, the order book's support thickness has significantly thinned, and a small number of sell orders can drive the price down. Continuous net outflows from ETFs, aftereffects of custody trust, and delayed interest rate cut expectations—these three pressures have not been lifted, only shifting from intense outbreak to chronic consumption. The pain of a sharp drop is short-lived; after panic positions clear, it is easier to see a phased bottom; but a low-volume wait-and-see decline will continuously wear down holders' patience, every slight rebound is suppressed by trapped positions above, repeatedly eroding market confidence. The most dangerous misconception now is interpreting volume shrinkage as the drop being unable to continue. As long as incremental buying is reluctant to enter, liquidity continues to shrink, and a new round of breakdowns may occur at any time. A true bottom requires confirmation by volume-supported signals, not a volume-shrinking, no-volume gradual decline.SNDK Short Selling Plan!📉 Strategy: Wait for the price to rebound to the 1165-1175 resistance zone (EMA5 suppression + previous small platform), then enter short positions after being resisted. The initial target is 1117 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, the next target is the 1100 whole number level; stop loss is set at 1205 (above EMA10).✅ Core Basis: 1️⃣ Bears dominate the market: The long-short position ratio is only 11.54%, with short positions around 142 million U, nearly 9 times the longs; the average short price is 1299, with a floating profit of about 88%, while the average long price is 1277, deeply trapped, showing a clear advantage for the bears. 2️⃣ Clear moving average suppression: The 4-hour EMA5/10/20 are at 1168/1202/1243 respectively and diverging downward; the rebound cannot even hold above EMA5, indicating a clear bearish trend. 3️⃣ Weak liquidity: The market is quiet during the off-hours, making it easy to push down and clear longs after opening; rebounds look more like opportunities for bears to enter. Approach: Do not chase the rebound; short after resistance is confirmed.⚠️Not a black swan, but old wounds bleeding: An in-depth review of Bitcoin's "gradual decline" logic today Many people tend to attribute sharp drops to sudden black swan events, but this round of Bitcoin's gradual decline does not stem from any sudden major negative news. Instead, it is a continuous bleeding of a series of "old wounds" that were buried long ago. The large-scale Binance hack incident has long ended, but market doubts about the security of centralized exchange custody have not truly dissipated. The outflow of funds withdrawing to avoid risk has always existed; this is the first long-unhealed wound. The second old wound comes from macro liquidity expectations: the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have been continuously delayed, and U.S. Treasury yields remain high. Since the beginning of the year, this has continuously suppressed the valuation of risk-free assets, only previously masked by incremental ETF buying; now, with ETFs experiencing continuous net outflows, institutional support has vanished, fully exposing macro-level pressure. The most wearing aspect of a gradual decline is the lack of rapid panic selling. Every small rebound encounters profit-taking from trapped positions above, with selling pressure continuously flowing. Although leveraged positions have not experienced epic single-day liquidations, bullish confidence continues to erode under the weak trend. To end the gradual decline, it is not about relying on a single positive catalyst but requires the gradual repair of multiple old wounds from earlier: ETF capital inflows, renewed market custody confidence, and revived rate cut expectations. Before this, the grinding downward pattern is difficult to break completely. $ETH 2270 is stuck at the “2250 lifeline,” recovery ≠ reversal Market summary: 4H: Price is stuck below 2273 resistance, EMA25 pressing down; MACD red bars shrinking below zero line, KDJ oversold recovery, rebound lacks volume 2250 is the daily pivot support, 2244 is the key hourly level; below, 2170–2172 previous lows not broken = bottoming, if broken then look at 2100 Capital betrayal: Spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows for 23 consecutive days (4.31 billion withdrawn in five days from 10.26–30), fee rate dropped to the lowest since June = crowded shorts, but buying hasn’t returned On-chain bottom support: 43.8 million staked (35.9% of circulating supply), Binance withdrawals resumed, 95% of stolen assets replenished, panic temporarily eased Three critical lines: 2,250–2,244 = lifeline, daily close not breaking = bottoming 2,273–2,300 = rebound wall, only breaking with volume removes the “weak” label 2,317–2,360 = true reversal threshold, requires BTC to return to 78.5K+ with volume Ethereum now: Hacker aftermath stabilized, but institutions are still withdrawing— Holding 2250 means “oversold recovery,” failing to break 2273 is just short covering drama. No volume over the weekend, don’t trust mid-level breakouts. Trading tone: If 2250 holds, very light positions to bottom; add only on volume above 2273; reduce if 2244 breaks, exit if 2170 breaks, only consider long above 2317. $ETH #US stocks and gold and silver plummet simultaneously, safe-haven funds diverge Global markets have experienced a brutal indiscriminate slaughter. $BTC fell below 77,000 — is the real "darkest hour" coming? The Nasdaq plunged 2.86%, semiconductors crashed 7.2%, even the safe-haven gold collapsed 3.5%, and silver broke below the $50 mark, plummeting over 6%. Our big coin also couldn't hold up, directly falling below $77,000. What exactly happened? Liquidity across the entire market has been drained, and indiscriminate deleveraging is underway! Look, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen back to 4.93%, indicating that at this extremely panic-stricken moment, large funds are frantically cashing out and exiting. To cover margin calls, even hard currency like gold is being sold off, and ultimately all the liquidity flows into risk-free US Treasuries. In this deleveraging meat grinder, there is no independent "safe-haven asset" market. Back to our chart, the big coin is now in a very awkward position. It wanted to wear the "digital gold" label to hedge risk, but looking down, it still carries the "high beta tech stock" tag. When US stocks fall, it falls too, and coupled with the aftermath of the hacker incident, confidence is severely shaken. Currently, the big coin is precariously hovering around 77,000. Looking down, 76,100 to 76,800 is the densest liquidation minefield for bulls. Once volume breaks through this area, triggering a chain reaction of long liquidations, that will be the true darkest hour. (This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice)