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#After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebound, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still falls about 3.4%. NVDA only recovered about 27% of Thursday's plunge on Friday; I won't chase this rebound yet.
On Thursday, NVDA dropped 9.3% in a single day, closing at $181.60, with an intraday low of $181.46.
On Friday, it closed at $186.64, up 2.8%, with a trading volume 1.59 times the 20-day average.
This means it only made up about 27% of Thursday's loss; SOXX rose 3.5%, also recovering only about a quarter.
ETF.net reported that the S&P 500 fell 2.7% this week, the worst week since June.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, higher than expected, raising the probability of a rate hike in December to about 77%.
I think this is an oversold rebound, not enough to confirm a trend reversal.
The stock price is still below the three moving averages: MA200 at 204.67, MA20 at 211.55, and MA50 at 219.81.
The increased volume indicates significant divergence, which does not mean the buyers have won yet.
My observation is to not chase: wait for a firm break above 194.90 (Friday's high), then see if it can reclaim 200.
If it falls below 181.46 (Thursday's low), this rebound is considered invalid.
Do you think this is a true bottom after panic, or just a temporary rebound in a downtrend?
$NVDA $AMD $MU
#USStocks #StorageStocksPressureEases, IsTheAI MemoryBullMarketStillStable? Are you okay with Brother Ba Bai losing 26 million? You promised to close the position again when it returned to 10 million.
SOXL opened at 63, with 66,421 units, closed at 61 with a loss of 144,061u. Since starting from over 80, I have been bottom-fishing $SOXL long positions, buying more as it fell, and finally chose to cut losses and exit near 60. From a principal of 26 million to now 2 million, it can't even be called halving; it's been cut down to the ankles.
The storage sector has been weak in its rebound, with $SNDK and $SKHYNIX repeatedly hitting new lows and continuously falling with high volume, causing continuous liquidation and stop-loss of longs, further pushing prices down.
From last Friday's semiconductor and storage trends, there was a pre-market spike followed by a drop. Currently, the market shows no signs of stopping the decline or stabilizing; it looks more like a technical rebound after overselling. Now is not the time to add positions or enter the market.
Currently, policies regarding the semiconductor AI industry are unclear. The Democratic Party is requesting a pause on data center construction, which greatly dampens future expectations for the storage and chip sectors. Although the recent drop has been severe, this does not yet look like a bottoming trend. Even if it is the bottom, there will be repeated oscillations to wash out the unsteady panic sellers. Holding positions will be tough. Remember this: bottoms are broad and tops are sharp. Don't be afraid of missing entry opportunities. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Stop staring at the K-line; the risks of these three coins are not reflected by technical analysis at all, but entirely lie in fundamentals and token distribution structure. Newbies who get involved will get "shocked":
1. $ONE (Harmony): Substantial liquidation of the public chain
This is not about whether the price has dropped enough to buy the dip, but about the project being "shut down." In August this year, a cross-shard vulnerability was exploited, resulting in the issuance of trillions of tokens, which directly led the project team to propose shutting down the seven-year-old mainnet, migrating to Ethereum, and pivoting to AI video. Coupled with the previous $100 million cross-chain bridge hack, the current market cap is only in the tens of millions. Essentially, this is a cleanup of the aftermath, facing liquidity exhaustion at any time.
2. $AKE (AKEDO): A slaughterhouse for extremely thin circulating supply
Don't get excited by a single-day surge of over 50%. Look at the token distribution: total supply is 100 billion, but only 22.8% is circulating, with as many as 77 billion tokens locked waiting for future release. Such an extremely low circulation and high control market means rapid pumps and even harsher dumps. It's purely a tool for capital games; retail investors entering are just taking the bag.
3. $PIEVERSE: Narrative exhaustion and unlocking gloom
As a new coin, the current price is entirely propped up by narrative. But the iron rule in crypto is that once the narrative is fulfilled or the hype fades, what follows is a massive unlocking and selling pressure of early low-cost tokens. With insufficient market depth, once funds withdraw, you can't even run away.Technically, $SOL is being pressured by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and the overhead supply from trapped positions continues to exert selling pressure. The reason it can still hold the critical support level at 90 is because institutional cost lines are around here, and 90 is roughly the average cost price for long-term holders. But whether it can continue to hold 90 going forward, I think it's unlikely! The short-term macroeconomic outlook remains bearish, and with spot ETFs experiencing record outflows recently, I believe the buying power is insufficient to counter the selling pressure. My personal guess is that the bottom for $SOL in this bear market should be between 76 and 82!#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 2026 earnings report shows its cash reserves have further climbed to $377.4 billion, setting a new record high. Despite holding such a massive cash pile, the company has not engaged in large-scale external acquisitions but has instead chosen to increase share buybacks, repurchasing about $9.6 billion in the quarter, the highest this year.
Latest Developments Explained
· Why is cash piling up? The core reason is the scarcity of high-quality acquisition targets that meet its standards in the current market. Holding nearly $380 billion with "nowhere to spend it" reflects management's cautious approach in a high-valuation environment, preferring to keep ammunition ready for the right opportunity.
· Where is the money going? Besides buybacks, funds are mainly allocated internally. Due to higher interest rates, holding short-term government bonds and other cash-like assets generates considerable interest income (about $12 billion annualized), which itself is a worthwhile "investment."
· Performance context: Q3 operating profit fell 5.8% year-over-year to $12.71 billion, mainly pressured by the insurance segment. With core business growth slowing, boosting per-share value through buybacks is a reasonable capital allocation choice.24-hour options trading volume bullish vs bearish ratio revealed: Options funds still lean towards bullish! The biggest pain points for BTC and ETH are both exposed, where the market makers want to push the price at expiration is clear to all!
📊 24-hour trading volume + biggest pain point breakdown
✅ $BTC: 24h trading volume bullish 61.88% vs bearish 38.12%
Bullish volume 30189.04 BTC, bearish volume 18596.59 BTC
Biggest pain point: 76000, nominal amount 10.781 billion
✅ $ETH: 24h trading volume bullish 52.24% vs bearish 47.76%
Bullish volume 156895.27 ETH, bearish volume 143425.29 ETH
Biggest pain point: 2800, nominal amount 73.072 million
Core interpretation:
The so-called biggest pain point is the strike price at expiration that causes the most option buyers to lose money. BTC 76000, ETH 2800, BTC's current price is close to the pain point range, and the market has strong traction to converge at this position.
Buyers overall lean bullish, with over 60% of BTC trading volume betting on a rise, yet market makers have the incentive to keep the price near the pain point, invalidating a large number of bullish options. This explains why the bullish proportion is high but the price is slow to rise.
Moreover, BTC options nominal volume exceeds 10 billion, much larger than ETH's 73 million, so the pain point traction and pinning battles on $BTC will only be more intense.
But remember, the pain point is only a reference, not an iron bottom or top. News can break it anytime, so avoid high leverage naked positions and always set stop losses—this is more important than anything!
Just personal opinion, trade at your own risk20,000 buy orders, first check the date
I'll check the announcement first.
Breaking news reaffirms Strategy bought 21,021 coins, but the original text is from July 2025, so it can't be counted as new buying tonight.
Spot price $75,959, 24-hour low $74,888, I mark this as old news.
$BTC
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC has been stuck watching this market all day, with Bitcoin just hovering around the lousy 75,900 level, moving less than two hundred dollars up or down. The volume has shrunk like a ghost, the whole market is dead silent, like trading has been suspended. Why? Simply put, it's been scared stiff by the US stock market. A couple of days ago, the Nasdaq crashed 5.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12%, and Bitcoin followed the US stocks from just above eighty thousand all the way down to seventy-five thousand. The correlation has almost hit 0.68. Now that the US stock market is closed for the weekend, the external master holding the leash isn't moving, and BTC itself doesn't even know which leg to step with.
The two macro knives are still hanging overhead. Non-farm payrolls came out at 165,000, far exceeding expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December has shot up to 70-80%, tightening the interest rate anchor firmly. The ETF side is even more honest: nearly 1.3 billion net outflows accumulated in November, with BlackRock redeeming over 400 million in a single day. Institutions are cutting high Beta positions, and Bitcoin is the first to be cut. As for the news about Strategy's 2.5 billion fundraising in the chart, it sounds impressive, but the STRC financing-to-buy-coin mechanism just resumed after being suspended for over 170 days. Converted, it only amounts to about a hundred BTC in purchasing power, more symbolic than substantial, so don't treat it as a lifeline.
I'll leave it at that. The real judgment moment is when the US stock market opens on Monday. If ETF funds keep flowing out, the 75,000 defense line will be pulled out and tortured repeatedly. Anyone itching to bet on direction now is just bored and handing fees to the market makers. Control your hands, wait for Monday's opening to see how the US stock players react—it's a thousand times better than guessing blindly here. I've seen many proposals to defend against quantum computing hackers, but this is the first time I've seen such a blatant attempt to seize someone's assets. 😅
The "quantum mine" created by Core developers is nominally meant to raise the cost for hackers stealing old wallets.
But on-chain, it can't distinguish who is the hacker and who is the legitimate owner; even legitimate holders moving old coins have to obediently lock up a deposit and wait through the challenge period.
The most absurd part is the latter half.
They say dormant assets with lost private keys will be subject to a "challengeable auction mechanism" in the future.
So the 1.1 million-plus BTC lying in ancient addresses by Satoshi are basically unclaimed meat on the shelf?
Under the banner of consensus security, reaching into others' ledgers to grab dead money—this scheme is audible across the entire network.
$BTC
$ETH BTC funding rate has turned positive, SOL's negative funding rate only lasted for an hour
The post-market analysis said it would grind between 75,200 and 76,400, waiting for one side to break first. Nonfarm payrolls topped the hot list all day, but the market remained unchanged, the box is still there, no breakout.
$BTC 75,938, +0.54% in 24 hours. High at 76,251, low at 74,888, 75,200 was pierced once overnight but pulled back.
Funding rates have all turned positive. Post-market BTC funding rate was -0.00016%, longs were unwilling to even pay interest; at 21:10 it turned back to +0.0051%, now +0.0068%, paying more and more. $ETH 2,246, funding rate +0.0063%, continuously paying. $SOL 89.98, at 21:10 funding rate was -0.00082%, just took over the negative funding baton for over an hour, now turned back to +0.0011%.
Positions haven't moved either. BTC contract open interest is 34,487 contracts, post-market 34,524 contracts, down by about 40 contracts.
Tonight, watch the funding rates first. If BTC funding rate turns negative again and SOL follows back, it is very likely to test lower tomorrow; if 75,200 doesn't hold, look for 73,000. Conversely, if the 4-hour candle closes above 76,400, the bearish outlook is invalidated, and look towards 78,000.
Do you think the funding rate will turn back tonight? #美军再度打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡重开仍存分歧
The US military has struck Iran again, and disagreements remain over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The US-Iran situation is now particularly divided.
The Qatari Prime Minister stepped forward saying the negotiations have achieved "significant results," Vice President Pence is on calls with mediators almost daily, claiming the mediation has reached the highest levels of the White House.
But on the same day, Trump personally admitted the US military carried out a "small strike" on Iran, with two missiles directly hitting Qeshm Island. He says "we are talking," but the actions haven't stopped.
The market is caught in a dilemma because of this drama. On Thursday, the VIX panic index surged past 50%, the Nasdaq dropped over 5% intraday, Bitcoin fell below 76,000, and the crypto market liquidated over $1 billion in leveraged long positions.
But gold doesn't play by those rules; it surged above $4,146, hitting a two-week high. Crude oil is even more conflicted: WTI closed up only 0.34% at $90.83, Brent at $98.32. Traders fear that negotiations might cause oil prices to crash, but also fear a breakdown could disrupt supply.
Pence is the person in Trump's circle least eager for war, but since he's now leading the talks, it shows the White House is also gambling internally. The problem is Iran has already declared it "no longer trusts paper promises" and wants to see actions first.$JUP
Jupiter illustrates why liquidity aggregation and trading infrastructure matter in a fragmented DeFi environment. Finding competitive execution across decentralized liquidity sources can improve the trading experience for users. However, platform popularity and token value are separate questions. Fee generation, token utility, competitive pressure, and the sustainability of ecosystem incentives remain important factors in evaluating JUP's longer-term fundamentals.Amazing! Congress is deadlocked, but the administration is quietly pulling the plug on the trillion-dollar long-term funds. This move in US crypto regulation, a "clear path above, secret passage below," has completely confused the market!
Recently, everyone has been flooded with news about the Senate stalling the CLARITY Act, thinking compliance efforts have stalled again. But don’t just focus on Congress; a more crucial move has already been made—the Department of Labor has officially submitted the final rule allowing 401(k) retirement plans to allocate crypto assets for White House review!
Looking at these two things together, the underlying logic is very intriguing.
The CLARITY Act is stuck in Congress mainly due to fierce conflicts of interest. Provisions about stablecoin interest and DeFi liability boundaries are deadlocked, making it hard to surpass the 60-vote threshold in the short term. This means a unified federal regulatory framework is still absent.
But the executive branch is bypassing this deadlock. The US 401(k) market exceeds $10 trillion. Previously, employers avoided involvement fearing lawsuits for "breach of fiduciary duty." This time, the Department of Labor clearly states that as long as six factors including fees and liquidity are evaluated, employers can obtain "safe harbor" protection, directly removing their legal concerns.
In short: legislative gridlock means the industry can’t get a unified compliance ID in the short term; but administrative loosening forcibly carves out an entry gap amid regulatory fog.
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 I took the first position in $BSB at 0.093, just one lot of spot.
Here's why. The order book looks weird: the 0.093 level has an absurdly thick order, and the key is that after it gets pulled, it gets replenished exactly the same way, back and forth several times. Someone who really wants to sell wouldn't mess around like this; the purpose of this is to make you see that wall and trust it.
Volume has shrunk sharply here, the candlesticks are basically flat, but the MACD is showing a bullish divergence. The price hasn't made a new low, but the indicator has already risen — I usually interpret this kind of mismatch as a shakeout to force out weak holders. Also, there's no news influencing the market right now; it's purely capital playing against each other, so the technical signals are actually cleaner.
So I don't plan to chase upwards. If it can hold on a pullback, then move, but chasing at this kind of level won't hold up through a retracement.
If 0.088 breaks, I’m out, no hesitation. The first target upwards is 0.11, and only if it really breaks above that is 0.125 a realistic target.
Manage your own money carefully; don't copy others' positions.In the prediction market, when they say "everyone thinks Bitcoin will break through," I always want to ask a follow-up question. Who exactly is "everyone"? Is it the majority of people, or the majority of money? Odds leaning toward a certain outcome can show the direction of funds, but that doesn't mean the answer is known in advance. It's different from just watching coin prices regularly; here you also have to consider the cutoff time and what exactly counts as a breakthrough. You might guess the direction roughly right, but you might not even fully understand the settlement conditions. I'm still reading the rules, and the comment section is already celebrating—this is way too hasty.$XLF
With interest rates remaining high, which factor is more important for financial stocks?
The resilience of U.S. employment means that demand and credit conditions faced by financial institutions may not deteriorate rapidly. However, the impact of interest rate changes on asset returns and liability costs is not synchronized.
Banks may achieve higher loan yields but might also increase interest payments to retain deposits. Insurance, payment, and capital market businesses respond differently to the same macro environment.
I focus on net interest margin and credit costs rather than simply betting on high interest rates. If deposits are stable and bad debts are controlled, profitability resilience improves; if financing costs rise faster than asset returns or loan losses increase, the sector may still face pressure.Raised approximately $2.521 billion, Strategy's Stretch completed its initial issuance and acquired 21,021 bitcoins
Digital credit combines financial infrastructure developed over centuries, including corporate equity, preferred stock, trading markets, tax laws, and securities regulation.
Strategy's Stretch completed its initial issuance in July 2025, raising about $2.521 billion. Strategy stated that it has used the net proceeds after deducting fees to purchase 21,021 bitcoins. Stretch is a perpetual preferred stock traded on Nasdaq, adopting a monthly dividend rate policy determined by the board of directors. $MSTR I've never quite understood: a company borrows money to buy coins, and the buyers of the coins are even scrambling to buy its preferred shares. So who exactly is making money from this?
Strategy just played out this scenario. Stretch raised $2.521 billion, and after fees, bought 21,021 bitcoins, not a single one left.
The most outrageous part is that what it issued isn't debt, but perpetual preferred shares—no maturity date, and the dividend rate can be changed by the board at monthly meetings. It means I get the money first, I decide the interest rate, and you don't have to wait for the principal.
I originally thought the buyers were betting on $BTC going up, but later I realized they were actually betting that this company can always raise new money.Let's first look at an unassuming number: 2.521 billion USD, converted into 21,021 bitcoins. This is the fundraising and usage of Stretch under Strategy, with all proceeds, after issuance fees, fully invested into spot assets, not a cent left out.
What’s noteworthy is the form of the money. Stretch is not a bond; it is a perpetual preferred stock traded on Nasdaq, with no maturity date, and the dividend rate is decided monthly by the board. It neither requires principal repayment nor promises a fixed coupon, so the financing cost is controlled by the issuer. Saylor calls this "digital credit"—combining company equity, preferred stock, trading markets, tax law, and securities regulation into a machine that continuously converts capital market funds into $BTC.
First issued in July 2025, and still able to raise funds at this scale today, indicates no shortage of buyers. The issue is not on the demand side but on the cost side: the dividend rate floats, affordable when the coin price is good, but during sideways or deep declines, this expense becomes a fixed cost on the balance sheet.
So this is not "buying coins again," but a choice of financing structure. Using perpetual preferred stock instead of convertible bonds means spreading the repayment pressure from "a certain day" to "every month," gaining the flexibility of no maturity date.
Worth considering: as more entities learn to channel stock market money into $BTC this way, the marginal buyers will no longer be retail investors but a group of institutions extremely sensitive to dividend rates and net asset premiums. Their rhythm is even harder to predict than ETF subscriptions and redemptions.【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】$AKT: The veteran decentralized computing power project moves to Solana, bringing new variables to the AI computing power track!
The Akash community has passed governance proposal #346, deciding to migrate the standalone application chain originally running on Cosmos to Solana.
This is not just a simple ecosystem switch but a fundamental architecture reconstruction.
Why migrate?
Akash itself is a decentralized cloud computing marketplace where GPU and server providers can rent out computing power, and developers can rent resources.
With the growth of AI inference and GPU demand, Akash hopes to concentrate more resources on the computing power market rather than continuing to maintain an independent consensus chain.
But migration also brings a key issue:
Previously, AKT staking was used to maintain the security of Akash's independent chain; after migration, this demand may change.
The project’s proposed AEP-95 adopts a one-way migration mechanism: locking AKT on the original chain, then minting an equivalent amount of SPL AKT on Solana after proof verification.
In the initial phase, AKT on Solana will not have staking and governance functions.
What’s truly worth attention is Akash’s BME mechanism:
Users consuming computing power services may translate into AKT burn demand. If future computing power usage grows and net burns expand accordingly, AKT will have a more solid value capture logic.
Currently, AKT is about $0.64, with a market cap of approximately $193 million, and a 7-day increase of about 5%–6%. However, trading volume and capital flow have not yet given strong confirmation $BTC $ETH At the end of September, I mentioned that the next time the fee rate turns negative, I would post a tracking thread to verify it. This article is the fulfillment of that promise. First, the conclusion: consecutive negative turns still lean bearish, with 7 out of 10 times resulting in a drop. But this time there is an additional reminder: it looks more like a confirmation that "the downtrend isn't over" rather than a signal that "the bottom has been reached." Those hoping to use it to catch the bottom will be disappointed in this October wave. How was it measured? Using the old method. OKX's BTC perpetual fee rate is recorded every 8 hours; when the previous value is greater than or equal to zero and the current value turns negative, it counts as one negative turn. We observe the price change from the close on the event day to the close 7 days later. This time the window is from August 6 to November 7. The fee rate data is only kept for three months, which is OKX's rule, so the sample size is limited. There are 279 fee rate records, 14 negative turns, and 13 of those have 7-day results available. The results are as follows: out of 13 times, 5 rose and 8 fell, with a median of -0.94%. Breaking it down, consecutive negative turns (with another negative turn within 3 days before or after) occurred 10 times: 3 rises and 7 falls, median -1.27%, average -0.78%, worst case -3.24%, best case +3.18%. Isolated single negative turns occurred 3 times: 2 rises and 1 fall, median +1.40%. Compared to the version at the end of September, the direction hasn't changed but the strength has. The consecutive negative turn pattern still holds: 7 out of 10 times it fell. On September 5 and 7, I said it was bearish, and the price dropped 3.24% and 3.04% respectively over 7 days. This set of data back thenMany people study macroeconomics every day, guessing when the US stock market will crash.
But I pay more attention to one action:
Berkshire Hathaway spent $9.6 billion on stock buybacks in the third quarter.
In the same quarter, its operating profit fell by 5.8%, and net profit dropped by 28%.
If you only look at the income statement, you would think this company is weakening.
But if you look at buybacks, cash reserves, and management's capital allocation together, the story is different.
The market trades fear every day, but the real big money must answer a more practical question: where exactly should the money in hand be placed?
Holding cash has its cost, buying stocks has its risk.
No asset is worth unconditional bullishness, and no cash is worth indefinite hoarding.
The hardest skill in investing is not predicting when a crisis will come.
It is whether you have the courage and discipline to act when the opportunity truly arises.Whales — "Partial Replenishment," Not New Capital
A dormant address that previously sold 5,699 BTC near $89,000 withdrew 3,009 BTC (about $228 million) from Binance on November 6 in the $75,000–$76,000 range, but only covered half of the previously sold amount. This is a "sell high, buy low" arbitrage operation, not new capital entering the market. Although there is a shift in accumulation direction among ultra-large holders with over 10,000 BTC, the continued outflow from the US spot ETF and the contraction of stablecoin liquidity indicate that overall spot demand remains weak.
Derivatives — Long Positions Have Been Cleared, but Option Gamma Suppression Persists
During this week's decline, $428 million in long positions were liquidated, with $265 million liquidated in a single 12-hour unilateral long session; the derivatives market saw forced liquidations exceeding $1.27 billion within 24 hours, with bullish positions liquidated over $1.1 billion. Leveraged longs have undergone a round of systemic cleansing, but the $11 billion option settlement's Gamma pressure is concentrated in the $70,000–$82,000 range, and market makers' hedging may accelerate sell-offs around the settlement. The largest pain point for today's expiry is at $79,000, about 3,000 points from the current price.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美军再度打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡重开仍存分歧 #cohr's performance growth exceeds expectations, can it drive a rebound in optical stocks?
My view is: mrvl and lite are unlikely to return to previous highs in the short term due to acquisition impacts. For cohr, optical interconnection is simultaneously driving revenue growth and profitability improvement. In Q1 of fiscal 2027, revenue was $2.37 billion, up 50% year-over-year; adjusted EPS grew 80%, adjusted gross margin rose to 40.6%, an increase of 1.84 percentage points year-over-year, indicating growth is translating into stronger profitability.
The company expects comparable revenue growth excluding sold businesses to exceed 60% for the full year, further reinforcing expectations of accelerated growth.
The approximately $20 billion five-year PhotonLink agreement also enhances long-term demand visibility, but revenue from this agreement will not ramp up until early 2028 and cannot be counted in near-term performance.
The most critical test going forward is whether capacity expansion can continue to convert into deliveries and profits. If capacity is smoothly released and gross margin continues to improve, COHR is expected to maintain a trend of profit growth outpacing revenue growth, providing earnings support for the stock price; delayed deliveries or stagnant profit margins would weaken this bullish thesis. AI stocks rebounded, but the gains shrank by half, did the bottom-fishers end up taking the hit again?
Not necessarily. A single day of a rise followed by a fall is not enough to declare the rebound dead.
Last night, Nvidia rose about 7% intraday but closed with only 2.8%; the Nasdaq narrowed from 1.7% to 1.1%. There were buyers at the low, but once the price went up, sell orders pushed it down.
Three points to clarify:
1. Panic easing ≠ confidence restored
The rebound includes both bottom-fishers and short-covering. Just because some dare to bet doesn’t mean others dare to chase the highs.
2. After a big drop, a rebound is possible; to keep rising requires worries to cool down
The market fears tighter AI regulation and a slowdown in data centers. One day of price increase won’t make these issues disappear; we still need to watch policy details and capital expenditure guidance.
3. The sector is diverging
AMD and Intel closed up about 11% and 8%, clearly stronger than Nvidia; capital is starting to pick selectively.
Next week, watch three things: whether the pullback can hold Friday’s low, whether the leading stocks can continue to be strong, and whether the price can hold above Friday’s high on another rally.
Repeated high opens and low closes mean using the rebound to exit; a pullback with shrinking volume followed by expanding volume breakout means the rebound is solid.
Panic is retreating, but there aren’t enough buyers chasing the rise yet. The first bullish candle only shows the downtrend is easing; whether the bottom is solid depends on subsequent support.$SAFE
Safe became the standard multisig wallet for DAOs and teams managing large treasuries. That trust is hard to replicate. The question is how directly the SAFE token captures value from that usage, since a widely used product doesn't automatically create token demand.$MORPHO
Morpho builds lending markets on top of existing liquidity, letting curators set up vaults with different risk profiles. That modular design is its edge. The open question is whether vault growth keeps coming from real borrowing demand rather than incentives alone.$PENGU
Pudgy Penguins grew from an NFT collection into a consumer brand with toys and a token. That crossover gives PENGU reach most memecoins lack. Still, brand strength and token demand are different things, so attention cycles deserve caution.
$S$S
Sonic is the rebranded evolution of Fantom, built for fast finality and an incentive program that rewards developers. A rebrand resets the narrative, not the fundamentals. Developer retention and sustained app usage will show whether the reset worked.$xBRKB $Berkshire Hathaway announced its Q3 earnings before the market opened on November 7 Eastern Time. Overall, this is a quarterly report showing a slight decline in operating profit, pressure on insurance, cash hitting a new high, and a significant acceleration in buybacks. Business breakdown: The insurance segment weakened noticeably. Third-quarter underwriting profit was only $1.352 billion, down about 43% year-over-year; insurance investment income also fell from $3.181 billion to $2.734 billion. The main reasons are increased claims pressure, intensified competition, and a decline in fixed income reinvestment returns in a rate-cut environment. The industrial segment showed strong resilience. BNSF Railway operating profit was $1.729 billion, up about 19% year-over-year; Berkshire Energy $1.612 billion, up about 8%; manufacturing, service, and retail segment $4.042 billion, up about 12%. Investment income dragged down net profit. Third-quarter net investment income was $9.407 billion, lower than $17.311 billion in the same period last year. Berkshire again reminds that GAAP net profit includes unrealized gains and losses on holdings, which fluctuate greatly; operating profit should be the main measure for evaluating business performance. Capital allocation signals: The most noteworthy aspect of this report is not the slight profit decline, but the combination of cash and buybacks: ● Cash rose to $377.4 billion, indicating the company still cannot find enough sufficiently cheap acquisition targets; ● Third-quarter buybacks totaled $9.6 billion, making it the highest within the year $UUP
How long can the US dollar's employment support last?
The US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The data strengthens evidence of the US economy's resilience, but the dollar's price trades on the relative path between the US and other economies.
Good US data only more likely provides sustained support if growth or interest rate advantages continue to expand. If overseas economies improve simultaneously, the dollar's relative advantage may not continue to increase.
I observe whether changes in interest rate differentials align with subsequent data. If the US advantage expands and capital flows persist, the dollar's logic is more complete; if strong data is just a single-month fluctuation and the interest rate differential narrows, expectations for continued dollar strength need to be lowered.【Follow Old Leeks, Wealth Is Yours】$POL: 70.49 million stolen tokens are planned to be recovered through a hard fork, Polygon is conducting a governance stress test!
Recently, a special proposal appeared in the Polygon community: it plans to coordinate a hard fork to transfer approximately 70.49 million native POL tokens stuck in attacker addresses from two security incidents back to the recovery addresses designated by Polymarket and Binance.
Among them:
Polymarket-related: about 23.86 million POL
Binance-related: about 46.63 million POL
According to the proposal's reference price, the total is about 6.5 million USD.
Note: This is neither a burn nor a buyback. The proposal clearly states that the total supply remains unchanged before and after the transfer.
What is truly worth noting is: can the blockchain recover stolen assets through governance and consensus upgrades during special security incidents? Meanwhile, Polygon also proposed the PIP-93 draft, planning to consolidate multiple security committees into an 11-member Security Council, adopting an 8/11 multisig threshold and a 7-day Timelock.
However, both matters still require subsequent governance and technical execution and should not be considered completed positive developments yet.Every time I see the overall inflation at 4% and core inflation at 2.5% side by side, I pause for a moment: which one should I really be afraid of?
Lagarde has made the calculation clear this time. A large part of the 4% is oil and gas; energy inflation surged from 18.9% to 20.8%, and food prices followed suit. If you exclude energy, food, and tobacco and alcohol, the core is 2.5%, exactly the same as in September.
Oil and gas prices will fall, but the core won’t fall on its own—that’s common sense. So when she says it will remain high for the next few quarters, I believe it.
The painful part is for those holding $BTC; even though the core hasn’t moved, they still have to wait a few more months for rate cuts. $ETH is even worse—rises are the steepest, and waiting is the most agonizing.The more it falls, the more people buy; it looks like they're picking up bargains, but in fact, they're quietly pushing the risk lower. In this wave of decline, the order book is getting thicker and thicker— is this really an opportunity? I've been watching the order books of $SNDK and $MU these past two days, and I have a very subtle feeling. On the surface, the buy orders are dense, but the price keeps dropping step by step; the excitement and the direction are completely misaligned. Many call this action "averaging down," but from another perspective, every time more positions are added, the stop-loss level is also pushed lower, so the risk hasn't disappeared; it's just been postponed. What's even more interesting is the preference of capital. The buy side is clearly several times thicker than the sell side, yet the price is still being pushed down, indicating that the real transaction direction is not on the buyers' side. While one side is taking in shares, the other is offloading; the more orders pile up, the easier it is for the price to continue sliding down. This isn't about anyone targeting anyone else; it's that those with heavy positions are gradually narrowing their own escape routes. The bullish logic isn't without merit either. If this is the start of a trend, this dense absorption could become excellent fuel; once selling pressure eases, the rebound will be fast and sharp, and altcoins and risk appetite will warm up accordingly. But right now, it feels more like a phase of divergence, even a bit like distribution. With each further drop, the speed at which unrealized losses grow doubles; the heavier the position, the more likely it is to be dragged down by one's own holdings rather than being harvested by the market. So now, I prefer to see this kind of order stacking as a gauge of sentiment rather than a bottom-fishing signal. The real turning point depends on whether volume cooperates and whether selling pressure truly thins out. Thick orders don't equal the bottom. You can't stack orders to create a bottom.SanDisk rebounded all night but fell back in just half a day
The night before yesterday, SanDisk followed chip stocks to rebound near 910.
Today it dropped back below 850.
Where did this money come from:
The gainers were computing power stocks like AMD and TSMC.
The storage sector didn’t keep up; SanDisk’s rebound was on its own.
How is this number calculated:
The drop from 1400 to 950 was all people buying halfway through.
Once the price went up, this batch of orders started selling out.
The weak rebound isn’t because no one is buying, but because sell orders waiting to break even are pressing down from above.
Storage price cuts have just begun, and SanDisk is at the forefront of this chain.
The batch of sell orders placed at Monday’s open is still waiting in place.
#Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期
#$AMD Today's drop is not just a problem within the crypto circle, but a concentrated outbreak of risks from the US stock market, macro sentiment, and the crypto market. 1. AI bubble concerns trigger US stock sell-off The market is starting to question whether the huge AI investments by tech giants can bring corresponding returns. The Nasdaq plunged, the semiconductor sector collectively dived, with Nvidia, AMD, MU, SNDK, etc. under pressure, and risk capital began to withdraw. 2. Trump’s company tran#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ Looking at the numbers alone, this Q2 report is impressive enough; OpenAI's valuation surge has directly pushed SoftBank to its highest half-year profit in history. But this impressive figure is just paper wealth; the real test lies ahead: whether OpenAI can continue to deliver revenue growth, successfully go public, and maintain its valuation will ultimately determine the success or failure of this heavy investment.Lagarde herself presented the numbers: Europe's overall inflation in October was 4%, higher than the expectations from a few months ago but in line with market forecasts. This statement sounds mild but is actually firm on both ends—the expectations were revised upward, but the market had already anticipated this.
Breaking it down, the 4% is not a uniform increase. Energy inflation jumped from 18.9% in September to 20.8%, and food prices are also rising. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remains at 2.5%, exactly the same as in September; service sector inflation is at 3.3%, slightly up but still within the range of the past four months.
This is the key point: what is rising is the price level, not an inflation spiral. Energy is a cost shock, a one-time step up that affects the overall number but does not automatically impact the core. The real determinants of monetary policy are core inflation and services, and neither has moved.
So when Lagarde says inflation will remain high for the next few quarters and that close attention must be paid to the inflation composition and energy price impact, the translation is that the window for rate cuts is being pushed back, not closed. For interest-free assets like $BTC, delaying rate cuts means real interest rates remain high, putting pressure on valuations; but from another perspective, if the ECB is forced to tighten due to energy prices while core inflation does not cooperate, it actually gains more reason to see through the energy effect.
What’s worth watching is not the 4%. It’s whether the 20.8% energy inflation can transmit to the 3.3% service sector inflation. If it doesn’t transmit, the ECB will eventually cut rates, and $ETH and risk assets still have a chance; if it does transmit, that’s when the real trouble begins.#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？
AMD's earnings report sent a somewhat positive signal, with the core being that both growth acceleration and profit resilience were validated. Q3 revenue grew 45% year-over-year, data center revenue increased by 97%, and adjusted EPS rose 74%, indicating that business expansion is generating scale effects.
More notably, the Q4 revenue guidance reached $17 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $16.23 billion; management also expects revenue growth to exceed 80% by 2027, further enhancing the visibility of future growth.
However, the Q4 adjusted gross margin guidance dropped from 56% in Q3 to 55%, indicating that revenue growth does not necessarily lead to gross margin improvement.
My judgment is that AMD's fundamentals remain optimistic, but whether the stock price can continue to be supported depends critically on whether new product deliveries can meet growth expectations and whether profit growth can continue to outpace revenue growth. 过去24小时，$BTC、$ETH、$SOL 的合约爆仓数据出现了一个值得警惕的错位：被扫出场的主要是空头，而不是多头。$BTC 爆仓逾3亿美元，其中空单约2.6亿、多单仅4000万；$ETH 爆仓1.8亿美元，空单1亿、多单8000万；$SOL 爆仓超5000万美元，多空接近持平、多单略占上风。表面看是买方回来了，但资金费率仍为正，说明追多情绪在累积，而非趋势已被确认。 这更像一场对空头的定向挤压，而非方向性行情的起点。关键差别在于：空头被动平仓带来的买盘是一次性的，平完就消失；而价格上方还压着前期套牢盘和获利了结盘，这两股力量会在反弹中陆续释放。把爆仓数据当成单边看涨信号，是当前最容易犯的错。 $ETH 的结构最值得细看。空单1亿、多单8000万，看似多头占优，但短周期多单爆仓比例在上升，意味着杠杆资金密集堆在窄幅区间里，价格稍有波动就会触发连锁反应。这种高弹性同时也是高脆弱性——涨得快，回撤同样快。$ETH 的多头逻辑需要资金费率回落、现货承接跟上才能成立，否则只是杠杆在自我循环。 $SOL 则是另一种状态。爆仓刚过5000万美元，多单略高于空单，资金热度偏弱，波动相对温和。它现在$ONDO faces a token unlock of 1.94 billion tokens in January 2027.
$UNI has a fee-funded burn mechanism.
One fights dilution.
The other has a mechanism to reduce supply.
Neither guarantees price appreciation.
But this is the question every long-term investor should ask:
**If both businesses grow 10x in size, which token is actually designed to benefit?**
This is the difference between buying a successful business narrative and owning the token that captures its success.
Which one would you rather hold for five years? $UNI$ONDO Don't rush to interpret the rocket stock's bullish candlestick as a return of risk appetite; I almost thought so at first glance too. But what really needs attention is whether it has re-tuned the cross-market string? That candle on Friday closed at 134.27, up 8.62%, with an intraday high of 135.32 and a low of 128.57, just slightly above the 5-day moving average. On the surface, sentiment seems to have recovered, but what concerns me more is whether this is just a correction or if risk appetite has truly shifted gears. After all, this bullish candlestick looks more substantial on the on-chain candlestick chart, but the stock price is still just shy of the 140 threshold, indicating that the bulls have only put their foot back inside the door, not really pushed it open. In my own position journal, the most common mistake at this stage is mistaking a "stop in decline" for a "reversal." The last time the rhythm was similar, I saw a stabilization signal and added to my position, but patience was worn down before the resistance level, and I ended up selling my chips before the launch. So this time, I prefer to wait for confirmation rather than jump the gun. The cross-market line is actually quite interesting. When rocket stocks strengthen, theoretically it drives a high-beta narrative—space concepts, satellite chains, and related altcoins' sentiment get ignited first, then BTC and ETH take on greater risk appetite. But the key is that this transmission has a lag and a prerequisite: volume must follow, and 140 must be effectively taken out for capital to treat it as a "new narrative" rather than an "oversold rebound." If only price recovers without volume support, it feels more like an emotional pulse for the crypto market, insufficient to sustain sector rotation. The bullish path is very#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
The boss has something to say
I came across this SoftBank news again, but the background has changed tonight: OpenAI just closed its first $11 billion financing round, valued at 1.25 trillion, far below the originally planned $30 billion. SoftBank has invested a total of $64.6 billion in OpenAI. On November 10, it will release FY26 Q2 results, with market expectations of a net profit of 2.5 trillion yen and Vision Fund earnings of 350 million. But the community reminds us that SoftBank is betting with junk bonds yielding 10%, its stock price has dropped 50% from the June high, and CDS has risen to 432 basis points.
My interpretation is: OpenAI's valuation has shrunk, and SoftBank is the most hurt leveraged player. Weak demand in the primary market and delayed AI infrastructure IPOs mean that SoftBank's structure of issuing debt to bet on a single unlisted giant will be the first to be squeezed out. For the crypto circle, this is a continuation of AI risk appetite — from AAOI, IREN to SoftBank, the market is repricing AI spending, and BTC is following risk appetite in the short term.
BTC current price is about 74,800, sideways on Saturday. My approach: 75,000 remains resistance, looking down to 73,000; I will not add any high-beta leveraged positions before the SoftBank earnings report. Light positions over the weekend, waiting for the US stock market to open on Monday to decide direction.
The above analysis is timely, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $ZEC ONE directly surged 57% today, jumping from 0.0011 to 0.00198, nearly doubling in one day. Trading volume expanded 21 times, from a few million to over twenty million dollars. Interestingly, after the rise, mainstream media only gave one sentence as the reason, with no confirmed catalyst. So what is the market speculating on? After some research, two explanations were found. First is transformation. Harmony is preparing to shift from a Layer 1 public chain to the "AI video" sector, creating a pl$BTC is currently at $75,917, down 0.04% in 6 hours
$ETH is currently at $2,244.24, flat in 6 hours, up 0.74% in 24 hours, ranging between 2,237 and 2,247, with resistance at 2,250 and support at 2,230.
Both have narrowed in volume and fluctuated within a tight range. This is attributed to the US October nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations overnight with an increase of 165,000, and rising expectations for a rate hike in December. The US dollar index rose 0.71%, suppressing risk assets, but Binance panic has been digested, with limited selling pressure, thus holding the 76,000 level.
In terms of operations, BTC is holding above 75,600 with a slightly bullish fluctuation; reduce positions if it breaks below. ETH is watching the 2,230 support.
Trading profits come from differences in cognition, not emotional differences; moving slower actually gets closer to the answer.
This is only a personal review record and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks; operate cautiously.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 00:40 AM record: Account net value is 96,800, down 3.2% from last week's peak. The BTC stop-loss order is set at 74,200 and hasn't moved for three days.
This account posts daily real trading net values and stop-loss points; profits are posted, losses are posted as well. If you can't keep up, just unfollow.
BTC is now 75,936, up 0.4% in 24 hours; ETH 2,245, up 0.9%; SOL barely moved, up 0.1%. All three assets are stagnant, but the background is JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds: employment data has pushed up the odds of a rate hike again. According to textbooks, this news should suppress risk assets, but prices have actually slightly risen.
My interpretation is: the current situation is closer to no one rushing to sell, but it hasn't reached the point where people are buying. Chips have shifted from weak hands to strong hands, so prices are holding steady. But volume hasn't increased; this "holding" is defensive, not offensive. So I’m not adding positions: for every 1% increase above 76,000, I reduce one tier, leaving the remaining base position untouched, waiting for the direction to reveal itself.
A question for you to choose one: at a time when the probability of a rate hike is rising, do you first cut your position to 50% to lock in profits, or maintain full position betting it will touch 80,000?
Follow me for daily public real trading positions and stop-loss logic; losses are honestly reported as well.
#OKXProphet , giving some data support for a December rate hike next. It further pushes the December hike to actually happen. Based on market bets on Fed hiking in December, the hike probability is roughly around 80%. But usually, besides the market pricing in the hike expectation and falling before the hike, there is also a sell-the-fact drop after the hike. If in 2027 the Fed keeps hiking or enters a "hike cycle", Then no matter for crypto or US stocks, the upside will be suppressed. $BTC from around 80k Are you numb yet? Hyperliquid continued to buy back and burn 21,000 HYPE tokens (about $1.66 million) in the past 24 hours, bringing the total burned amount close to 50 million tokens, accounting for 5% of the total supply. The protocol revenue in the past month was about $63.94 million, ranking first among all protocols, with 97%-99% continuously converted into buy orders. This is HYPE's strongest trump card, but it cannot hedge against concentrated daily sell-offs worth tens of millions of dollars.
The core issue now is that HYPE is stuck in a deadlock where the fundamentals are supporting the bottom, but the chip distribution is causing sell-offs. Buybacks and burns provide real value support, but the continuous inflow of a16z and large holders into exchanges creates clear short-term selling pressure. The market's pricing power is currently in the hands of the sellers.
Just watch one signal: whether $75 can hold. If it holds, it means buybacks plus low-level support can still absorb a16z's sell-offs, and the deadlock continues; if it breaks, it means even the protocol's high-intensity buybacks can't withstand this wave of chip distribution, and the depth and duration of the correction will be extended. AHR999指标、恐惧贪婪指数、历史周回报率以及定投成本，目前的市场呈现出典型的“极度恐慌+估值触底”的左侧特征。 恐慌蔓延，又到了“别人恐惧我贪婪”的时刻 最近大盘跌得让人没脾气。看了下最新的数据，几个关键指标都在疯狂闪烁“抄底”信号，简单说说目前的盘面： 1️⃣ 情绪面：极度恐惧 看图一的贪婪与恐惧指数，目前已经跌到了 26（恐惧）。要知道之前还在 72（贪婪）的高位，这波情绪杀跌非常明显。 2️⃣ 估值面：AHR999 亮起绿灯 图一右侧明确提示了当前状态“适合抄底”。看图三的具体数据，Ahr999 指标已经跌到了 0.43 - 0.49 区间，处于历史上的定投极佳击球区。 更关键的是，目前 BTC 价格（约 7.5万-8万美元区间）距离 200日定投成本（约7.26万美元） 已经非常接近了，这是一个极强的心理和技术支撑位。 3️⃣ 历史规律：连跌四周，至暗时刻？ 看图二的历年周回报率，2026年（即当前年份）的第41周到第44周，居然是连续四周全红（收跌）。不过参考历史，2017和2022年的第45周也曾出现过 -21% 的极端暴跌。目前恐慌盘可能已经释放得差不多了。 不要一If you think Dogecoin has no hope now, take a look at its past performance. It crashed about 56% in 2014, but surged over 3900% in 2017! It crashed again about 74% in 2018, then saw an annual increase of over 3500% in 2021! It dropped about 59% in 2022, rebounded over 250% in 2024, and then fell about 63% in 2025. This is the truest side of DOGE: wild rises, brutal pullbacks, and repeating cycles. But don’t be fooled by the historical average returns. The huge gains in a few years significantly raise the average, and most investors may not catch the market moves. I still believe DOGE is worth watching long-term, but the next big rally requires new capital, market sentiment, and real-world applications working together—not just relying on past stories.