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Earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock price still fell $GOOGL earnings report came out, with both revenue and profit rising. It was still sold off after hours. The key point is this: what fell was not the performance, but the expectations Buyers had already priced in the “growth.” The earnings report just turned expectations into numbers. The next step is: if guidance is lowered, those who have made enough profit will run first The price is set by the most urgent seller. No matter how good the performance is, it can’t stop them from selling first. The earnings report owes no one, it owes the cost to those who bought at the high point. #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% #$GOOGL $ETH A security incident occurred on the trading platform, but why can't we directly conclude that there is a problem with the Ethereum network? Custody keys, application contracts, and underlying consensus belong to different risk layers. To assess ETH, we still need to focus on settlement demand, staking activities, and network fees. The opposing view is that fund withdrawals will transmit from the platform to the chain. If stablecoin settlement and lending demand recover and fees remain stable, I would increase my assessment of recovery; if only the coin price rebounds while on-chain activity continues to contract, the evidence is still insufficient.After the U.S. stock market closed on Tuesday, November 3, copper, natural gas, and silver showed a pattern of “sharp declines in copper and silver, with natural gas standing out.” Copper and silver were suppressed by uncertainties surrounding the U.S. midterm elections, a stronger dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields; natural gas, however, rose against the trend due to its tight supply-demand structure. --- 🔴 Copper: Risk appetite declines combined with rising costs for Chinese buyers, plunging over 2.5% COMEX December copper futures closed at $6.4020 per pound, down 2.52%, hitting an intraday low of $6.318—the lowest since October 22—with a trading range of $6.318–$6.5525. Volume expanded to 67,736 contracts, while open interest slightly decreased to 153,677 contracts. The core driver of the copper price plunge was a concentrated drop in risk appetite. On the day of the U.S. midterm election voting, the market worried that if the Democrats gained significant advantage, regulatory scrutiny on AI data center construction might intensify, negatively impacting copper demand expectations. KCM Trade analysts explicitly noted that regulatory pressure on the tech sector would transmit to the copper market through the AI computing power chain. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China raised the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to guide the RMB exchange rate lower, directly increasing the cost for Chinese buyers to purchase dollar-denominated copper, suppressing marginal spot buying. The domestic Shanghai copper December contract also fell by 1,490 yuan to 106,090 yuan/ton. However, the fundamental bottom support remains intact. The Yangshan copper premium remains high at $200/ton, indicating strong spot demand in China; the Chilean Copper Commission lowered its 2026 production forecast from 5.27 million tons to 4.94 million tons (a decrease of 8.4%) and simultaneously cut the 2027 production outlook, reinforcing supply constraints at the mine level. The copper price decline is more a short-term release of financial pressure rather than a deterioration of physical supply and demand. --- 🥈 Silver: Pressured by the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, decline far exceeds gold’s COMEX December silver futures closed at $49.810 per ounce, down $1.078 or 2.12%, with an intraday range of $48.62–$50.915. Silver’s decline was nearly three times that of gold (-0.74%), with both financial and industrial attributes under pressure. The suppression came from two directions. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose in tandem, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.9%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, hitting silver first. At the same time, uncertainty around the U.S. midterm elections prompted investors to reduce risk exposure, with silver, a highly volatile asset, being sold off first. A deeper drag was that oil prices fell about 2% intraday, briefly easing inflation concerns and driving a rebound in gold and silver, but then rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar overwhelmed this positive, causing gold to retreat from highs and silver to weaken accordingly. The World Gold Council on the same day lowered its forecast for gold investment demand growth this year from 400 tons to 200 tons, citing weaker demand for bars and coins, a sentiment that indirectly affected silver as well. --- 🔥 Natural Gas: Rising against the trend, tight supply-demand structure provides independent support NYMEX natural gas futures closed at $2.883 per million British thermal units, up $0.019 or 0.66%, with a daily high of $2.88 and low of $2.85. Against the backdrop of sharp declines in copper and silver, natural gas showed a completely independent and relatively strong trend. The rise in natural gas is rooted in a marginal tightening of the U.S. domestic market’s supply-demand structure. Although expectations of a warm winter remain the core narrative suppressing midterm prices, short-term production has fallen from peak levels, and LNG export terminals are gradually recovering after concentrated shutdowns, providing bottom support for prices. In the week ending October 30, natural gas futures rose cumulatively by 9.79%, reaching a high of $3.092, indicating that short-covering demand after extreme crowding remains. Unlike copper and silver, natural gas pricing is anchored in domestic supply and demand, making it less sensitive to a stronger dollar and midterm election risks. When financial-attribute-dominated commodities are sold off en masse due to macro sentiment, natural gas, supported by its tight fundamentals, became one of the few commodities to close higher that evening. --- 💎 Summary Copper and silver are trading under a macro suppression combination of “stronger dollar + rising U.S. Treasury yields + midterm election uncertainty,” with copper additionally burdened by rising marginal buying costs due to China’s foreign exchange policy; natural gas trades on an independent logic of “marginal tightening of domestic supply and demand + short-covering after crowded shorts,” temporarily decoupling from the synchronized fluctuations of macro risk assets. Copper’s decline has not shaken the supply constraints at the mine level or the physical demand reflected by the Yangshan premium, while silver needs to watch the next moves of the dollar and interest rates—if the dollar falls after midterm election results are finalized, silver’s recovery potential may exceed that of copper.Stop sleeping, your position is getting crushed These past two days are not just a pullback, it's a full-scale retreat. BTC: Volume surge breaking support, not a shakeout From 78,700 down to 75,800 in three days, the key is volume. On the 2nd, turnover was 23.5 billion, on the 4th it surged to 24.6 billion—previously during sideways trading it was just over 12 billion. The volume-driven drop shows real selling pressure, not just a shakeout. The small support at 77,000 has already been broken, 76,000 is a psychological barrier, and below that, supports come one by one at 75,000 and 73,000. The two-month consolidation box has chosen a downward direction. ETH: No buyers at 2,300, the rebound is a desperate escape It surged to 2,311 with a long upper wick and then pulled back, still hanging there now. What does this mean? At that level, sell orders crushed down, buyers didn’t follow. The rebound can’t surpass previous highs, each wave is lower than the last—a typical weak structure. ETH is not leading the drop now, it’s following, which is even worse—it shows capital doesn’t even want to allocate here. ZEC: Single-day -8%, high-level coins start to stampede A couple of days ago it was the darling of privacy narratives, now a big bearish candle from 1,280 straight down to 1,130. The biggest gainers fall the hardest; this is the fate of high-level coins—profit takers see the market turning and run faster than anyone else. Don’t catch the fall; this first big bearish candle before a halving cut usually isn’t the last. Coincidentally, the $BTC four-year halving cycle exactly aligns with the U.S. midterm election cycle on the same timeline. Historically in 2014, 2018, and 2022, these three midterm elections all occurred near the end of bear markets. After the midterm elections, there is often one last wave of sell-off and panic liquidation, which marks the cycle bottom, followed by the gradual start of a new bull market. Even more interestingly, the timing of the bottom has been advancing. In 2014, the bear market bottom was reached 71 days after the midterm election; in 2018, it was 39 days after; and in 2022, the low point came just 13 days after. This can be understood as institutional capital increasing, information transmission speeding up, and risk pricing accelerating. What used to take months of grinding panic is now priced in within weeks or even days. However, this is a historical statistical pattern, and the underlying drivers of each downturn are completely different. This cycle adds another variable: the election results are directly tied to expectations for crypto-friendly policies. If the control of both chambers changes, regulatory and legislative expectations will rewrite market pricing. If you often get trapped chasing rallies and selling in dips without clear direction, visit the homepage Study Club to get operational ideas. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $ETH I saw the news about computing power restrictions, and my first reaction was not to look for concept coins, but to calculate the odds: the narrative might heat up, but whether the business can catch it determines if this expected value is worth giving. According to reports, Nvidia has asked its data center partners to reduce business with Chinese customers, requiring cloud computing clients to sell at least 51% of their services to non-Chinese companies. This only applies to new contracts and does not affect existing agreements. Nvidia has neither confirmed nor denied this. My judgment is that this is a narrative catalyst for decentralized computing power, but not yet a positive order signal. Existing agreements are unaffected, meaning we cannot directly infer a sudden migration of existing demand; chip usage restrictions do not equate to on-chain computing power being able to replace it. If related projects can prove that computing power is usable and costs are reasonable, I would be willing to raise expectations for demand realization; if it's only conceptual hype, I think it is not worth giving a high valuation. When facing such news, do people value the win rate after order verification more, or do they prefer to bet early on the odds of substitute demand?Tether holds $130 billion in reserves, and the next step is to build a six-layer technology stack? At the Lugano Plan ₿ forum, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino used Asimov's "Foundation" series as an analogy to propose a vision far beyond the scope of stablecoins: a six-layer open-source "independent technology stack" covering energy, mining, communications, finance, and artificial intelligence. Behind this grand blueprint lies a massive reserve of about 150,000 bitcoins, $132.4 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, and approximately 150 tons of gold. However, the timing is intriguing: by 2026, the USDT supply has basically stopped growing. Vision backed by reserves Tether's balance sheet has become one of the most closely watched focal points in the crypto industry. The $132.4 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds alone is enough to rank it among the world's largest holders of U.S. government debt, comparable to some sovereign nations. The holdings of bitcoin and gold add diversified hard assets, protecting the company from single market volatility. This reserve not only provides credibility endorsement but also funds Ardoino's expansion roadmap. Why shift now? The stagnation of USDT supply is a key signal. For years, Tether's growth has been a proxy indicator of crypto adoption, especially in emerging markets where access to dollars is difficult. But with supply peaking, the company faces a strategic inflection point. Tether seems no longer to rely solely on seigniorage income from stablecoin issuance but positions itself as a diversified technology group. If the six-layer technology stack can beEveryone says, "If the exchange promises full compensation, users will be fine." Brazil's largest exchange Mercado Bitcoin just tested this statement. On November 2, it was hacked. The exchange itself acknowledged a loss of 36.3 million USD, while the on-chain analysis company Chainalysis estimated 49 million USD. They said users wouldn't lose out and have recovered and frozen about 12.9 million USD. But as of this morning, withdrawals are still closed with no reopening date. The numbers are all there in the accounts, but you just can't transfer out. Compensation means "we'll pay you later," while withdrawals mean "can you use it now?" These are two different things. $BTC dropped from 81,000 to 77,000 this week, and those frozen have no choice but to hold. The most discussed topic in today's intelligence is $HYPE, with the breakdown placed in the poster. To be honest: This round of AI Agent was a dream first told by the funds, and also the first to wake up by the funds. Last month, the ai16z faction was still airdropping daily, launching a new agent every day, and $AKE was hyped above 0.0047 along with the sector, with KOL tweets outnumbering the code. This week, the trend changed; there was no new story from the large models, and all the money shifted to meme coins and Bitcoin, making small-cap AI tokens the first to be cleared out. No one was dumping, just no one was buying, so the price slid down on its own. My 0.00474 short position has nothing to do with "being bearish on AI." It was because I saw a rebound climbing back to the high point, a long upper wick on the 1H chart, but volume shrank—the buying pressure was exhausted, and that was the real signal. 20x leverage, stop loss above 0.0048. Now at 0.00347, it has dropped a full segment. But I am tighter than when I entered: the bottom of narrative coins is made by a wick, not by falling. Once 0.0035 is pierced by a wick, all those waiting to break even above will run, and the shorts will be squeezed. Until there is new news, I just treat this as the tail end of the retreat. Profiting is luck; knowing when to stop is skill. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $BTC has plummeted! Here is Bitcoin's performance after the last 3 midterm elections: 2014: Lost control of both chambers, bottomed around $171 within 71 days, a drop of -48% 2018: Lost control of the House, bottomed around $3200 within 39 days, a drop of -50% 2022: Lost control of the House, bottomed around $15500 within 13 days, a drop of -16% Prediction market data shows the probability of Democrats taking the House surged from 92% to 95%, and the probability of Democrats taking the Senate iThe growth in USDC's scale is real, but it has not yet effectively translated into meaningful shareholder returns. The Q3 financial report is very likely to continue the divergence pattern of "volume increase without profit growth," with the core contradiction lying not in the issuance scale but in the income and cost structures. The recognition of Arc presale revenue may represent an incremental factor that the market has not yet fully priced in. Circle expects to recognize about $180 million in ARC presale revenue for the full year 2026. The exact amount booked in Q3 will directly affect whether the "other income" item can significantly exceed the pace implied by guidance. If management chooses to recognize a portion in Q3, the probability of an unexpected revenue upside will significantly increase. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ What I noticed is not how much the Korean stock market fell, but that it turned down after opening higher: During investors' wait for the US midterm election results, the South Korean KOSPI index dropped 2.7%, Samsung Electronics fell 3%, SK Hynix declined 4.5%, and AI-related stocks retreated. This is somewhat interesting, but it cannot be directly translated into the crypto AI sector falling. 👀 My judgment is that this news is somewhat sentimentally negative for highly volatile small-cap coins, but it is not evidence of a deterioration in the fundamentals of related projects. The election results have not been finalized, and uncertainty tends to suppress risk appetite; if this caution spreads to the crypto market, then small coins that rely on narratives to attract attention may be more vulnerable to shocks than mature assets. This is my speculation, not a market move that has already happened. Opportunities in highly volatile assets often hide when sentiment drags different assets down together. But I will be a bit restrained: AI in stocks and AI in crypto are not the same business logic, so you cannot forcibly apply the same trend just because they share a label. Small coins also carry an additional layer of liquidity risk; large price fluctuations do not necessarily mean better opportunities. I will observe after the election news is finalized whether risk-off sentiment eases and whether AI-related small coins show volume-price divergence, rather than just focusing on a single sharp drop. What sectors have you been paying attention to recently? When facing such macro uncertainty, do you focus more on the AI narrative or other directions with actual use cases?This person's investment approach is crazy! It is said that he bought $10 worth of Bitcoin every day for 8 consecutive years, investing a total of about $25,500, and now the account value has exceeded $10 million! No complicated operations, just long-term consistent dollar-cost averaging. This is the power of time and compound interest. $BTC ETF is withdrawing, whales are buying, but contract whales are turning short: BTC's "expensive divergence," ETH faces 6.8 billion shorts above $BTC bulls left behind are paying the highest price ETF outflows, BlackRock IBIT alone holds 233 million. But on-chain whale holdings have risen to 3.03 million coins, the highest since November 2025, with a 30-day accumulation speed fastest since February this year. The problem is: BTC whale positions on Hyperliquid have turned net short, and a whale sold 1,312 BTC to switch to ETH. Open interest has dropped to a 12-month low, but the 7-day average funding rate remains at the 100th percentile of the past 90 days, meaning the bulls left are paying the most expensive holding cost in the past three months. Unable to break 78,219, these bulls will fuel the next downward move $ETH below 2,300 has 1.26 billion longs, while above there is a thicker cluster of shorts Trading below the volume POC at 2,408, within the value area. Liquidation charts show two short clusters of about 3.4 billion each between 2,420 and 2,440 above, but about 1.26 billion long clusters gather near 2,300 below. About 75% of accounts hold longs, but the top traders' long ratio has slowly declined from 63%. The strongest buy orders are near 2,255. As long as the 4-hour candle does not reclaim 2,408, the path to first sweep 2,300 and then probe down to 2,255 is smoother #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ 🔥Don't mistake the leverage liquidation for a market recovery; we are currently only in the latter half of the deleveraging cycle. Funds have fled early, prices have not yet given a drastic signal, and position flows are the real main theme. BTC faces the heaviest pressure, with a 24-hour net spot outflow of 1.064 billion and futures outflow reaching as high as 3.098 billion; leverage contraction has not stopped at all. Liquidation data also confirms this: among BTC liquidations, 62% are still longs, and longs continue to be washed out. The market has already shown clear divergence. ETH has brief buying interest, with a four-hour net spot inflow of 37.06 million, but futures simultaneously see an outflow of 171 million; the slight spot support is offset by derivative capital withdrawal. Its liquidation structure has reversed, with 70% of liquidations being shorts, meaning shorts are getting hit first. SOL and ETH have similar rhythms, with 59% of liquidations from shorts, and contract funds also retracting; the deleveraging cycle is not over. In just one day, the liquidation focus has gradually shifted: the previous day, 90% of liquidations were longs, now short liquidations have increased, and the market is starting a two-way squeeze. Two-way liquidations often indicate a bottom-seeking phase, not a bottom formation. The most critical test lies with ETH: can this small spot buying continue to outperform the fleeing futures funds? If spot inflows cannot hold, a new round of sell-offs and chain liquidations could come at any time. After this round of two-way cleansing, who do you think will be the first to stand firm? $BTC $ETH $SOLOpening the market chart today, the five major mainstream coins all turned green simultaneously, but the most striking aspect was not the decline itself, but the "dislocation" of the decline. $BTC is quoted at $77,046, down only 0.60%; $ETH slid to $2,268; $SOL dropped to $92.38; $DOGE fell to $0.07415; while $OKB plunged 3.15%, a decline more than five times that of $BTC. Within the same downturn, why did the platform coin fall harder? This detail is more worth pondering than just "another drop." First, let's separate cause and effect. This round of adjustment was not triggered by a black swan event in any single coin, but is the result of three overlapping pressures. The first layer comes from external factors: the US tech stock sector continues to be under pressure, global risk appetite is cooling overall, and the crypto market cannot remain unaffected. The second layer comes from the capital side: the US spot Bitcoin ETF has recently seen significant net outflows, combined with concentrated long contract position liquidations, adding more pressure to an already fragile market. The third layer is timing — today is the US midterm election day, with results yet to be announced, so capital naturally chooses to watch rather than attack. These three forces acting in the same direction constitute a "decline without a single culprit." The truly underestimated signal is hidden in the structure. The excessive decline of $OKB indicates that in an environment of liquidity contraction, assets lacking sustained buying support will be sold off first, amplifying the decline. But based on a single market snapshot, it is impossible to conclude the existence of specific negative news or concentrated large-holder sell-offs; a more reasonable interpretation is short-term insufficient support. This precisely marks the market's shift from "broad decline" to "differentiation." At the close of Eastern US time on November 3 (early morning Beijing time on November 4), the five major asset classes showed a game of "US stock structural divergence, US Treasury sell-off, slight rise in the US dollar, gold under pressure, and crude oil deep V reversal." Specific trends and key data are as follows: · US Stocks (sharp divergence): The three major indices moved differently, with AI tech stocks counterattacking against the trend, while the Dow weakened under the drag of traditional heavyweights. The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7568.92 points, the Nasdaq rose 0.83% to 25372.01 points, and the Dow fell 0.38% to 51786.72 points. Large tech stocks performed well, with Microsoft up 2.74%, Facebook up 2.36%, Nvidia up 2.29%, Amazon up 2.06%, and only Tesla down 1.32%. · US Treasuries (collective rise): Driven by strong JOLTS job openings data, US Treasury sell-off pressure resumed, pushing yields higher across the board. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.16 basis points to 4.964%, approaching the 5% threshold again; the 2-year Treasury yield rose 3.31 basis points to 4.631%; the 30-year Treasury yield rose 4.4 basis points to 5.331%. · US Dollar (slightly stronger): Supported by strong economic data and the Fed's hawkish stance, the US dollar index closed slightly higher at 101.86 (up 0.06%), firmly above the 101 level again. · Gold (volatile under pressure): Suppressed by rising Treasury yields and a strong dollar, precious metals weakened. COMEX gold futures fell 0.74% to $3940.20/oz, losing the 3950 support; COMEX silver futures fell 2.12% to $49.81/oz. · Crude Oil (deep V reversal): Experienced sharp intraday fluctuations due to Middle East geopolitical news. Amid rising expectations of US-Iran talks, WTI crude oil plunged intraday but then rebounded sharply following geopolitical fluctuations, ending with WTI crude oil slightly up 0.31% at $96.76/barrel and Brent crude oil slightly down 0.39% at $104.36/barrel. Comparison with the previous day (November 3): One day earlier, the market was still playing out a completely opposite pricing logic. Influenced by breakthrough progress in Middle East diplomacy, WTI crude oil plunged 7.55% in a single day, suppressing inflation expectations and boosting gold's sharp rise of 1.48%. Treasury yields fell across the board, and the US dollar dropped to a one-month low amid easing risk aversion. By early November 4, with strong employment and factory data released and Treasury yields rising again, funds concentrated on AI tech stocks, and the deep crude oil sell-off was quickly bought back for trading.10x leverage is the number I care about most in this position opening. Core Trader 02 just opened a new long position on $MU with a nominal value of about $50,000. When I mentor newcomers, I often remind them: don’t rush to guess if their call is right; first, understand how much adverse volatility you can withstand. 📌 Using this position as a simplified example: with 10x leverage, the initial margin is about $5,000. If the price drops 1%, the unrealized loss is about $500, which is 10% of the initial margin, and this doesn’t even include fees. My judgment is that leverage should be determined by the stop-loss distance, not by "how confident I am," otherwise normal fluctuations might become unbearable. Newcomers often misunderstand: 10x leverage means you can safely withstand a 10% drop. In reality, forced liquidation is also affected by maintenance margin, account type, and other factors, so you can’t just calculate it that way. Is there any part of the margin loss and price drop conversion you still don’t understand? Feel free to leave a comment about where you’re stuck.Looking at this Dogecoin chart, we see high price swings. Back on June 9, 2026, it dropped down from 0.11348, then bounced up from the 0.06757 low on August 15. After that, it climbed toward a peak around late September before sliding down again to the current 0.07297 price level. Looking at past up and down trends, it often tests support before rising. Do you think it will bounce back up past 0.0800 soon or drop lower? Can't say too early about $SKHYNIX, it seems yesterday's thinking was actually correct, it's really not Sister Shan's hindsight!!! The facts are right there on the market haha NVIDIA's market cap returned to $5 trillion, AMD plunged nearly 8% after hours, the project side hyped expectations for a short-term boost, which is also why Hynix surged yesterday 🚀🚀 And the reason for the sharp drop this morning is entirely due to the impact of the Korean stock market opening this morning, plus the positive sentiment has been exhausted, the flood has been released before the election, so the trend after the election won't be very good, and the rebound strength won't be very strong! In the short term, Sister Shan still remains bearish on Hynix, the brief rebound is just intra-day funds playing games, the shorts have gone crazy, the cost-effectiveness of bottom-fishing is not high, so Sister Shan still continues to be bearish in the short term!"If Trump loses the midterm elections, will Bitcoin directly break below 40,000, or even touch 35,000 before rebounding? It’s unlikely. Currently, BTC is around 77,000, and the probability of the Democrats winning the midterms is already high, partially priced into the market. Surveys show that when the Democrats control Congress, the median year-end expectation is about 76,000, with most seeing support at 60,000. Dropping to 35,000-40,000 would require a larger macro shock. Politics is one factor, but liquidity and ETF flows are more critical. Historically, after midterms, the market often adjusts first before rising. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Storage stocks are stuck, don't rush to "rescue" yet This drop is indeed severe. Seagate down 7.88%, Western Digital down 7.52%, SanDisk down 6.59%, Micron down 5.78%, almost the entire storage sector is down. The worst hit is SanDisk, whose earnings and guidance exceeded expectations, yet it was still hammered 17% in two days, breaking below the 200-day moving average. The better the performance, the more it falls; it's hard for holders not to question their decisions. But the first thing after being stuck is not to ask when you'll break even, but to figure out where exactly you are stuck. If you chased at a high price, the worst thing now is to think "it’s dropped so much, I’ll just average down a bit." Morgan Stanley’s blunt but true statement: storage stocks often peak before the profit peak, and valuations are cheapest when the market is most optimistic. What’s trading now is not that demand is gone, but that price increases are slowing. This rebound phase is a correction, not a reversal; averaging down on a rebound can make losses heavier. If you bought in batches on the left side, you have to admit you bought too early. Buying early is not shameful; what’s shameful is adding more during the rebound. Storage did rebound on November 4, with SanDisk up 4.78% and Micron up 2.58%. But with this kind of rebound, first see if the leaders can hold steady on lower volume; don’t think you’re right just because of one bullish candle. What you should do now is not predict the bottom, but reduce your position to a level where you can sleep at night. Reduce some from heavy positions during the rebound, wait for right-side confirmation if you have light positions, and if you’re out, don’t reach in just because it’s dropped a lot. AI demand for storage hasn’t collapsed, but stock prices and fundamentals have never moved in sync. Just my personal random thoughts, not advice. If you’re stuck, take care of your mindset first, don’t worry about face. $BTC 75988 has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, $ETH 2237 short position is stuck and painful, $ZEC 1172 took profit and ran first Can my $ETH still break even? At $BTC 76000, honestly, the drop is quite harsh, directly breaking the lower Bollinger Band at 76265, RSI dropped to 24.3, oversold to the extreme. I glanced at the 4-hour chart, 75734 is the 24-hour low, just over two hundred dollars away from the current price. If this level breaks again, there’s really no support below, will have to look for buyers at 75000. But from my experience, if RSI is this low and there’s no rebound yet, it means the bearish sentiment hasn’t fully released. Don’t rush to bottom fish, wait for a bullish divergence or volume-supported stop in the decline. $ETH Your 2237 short position is stuck and painful? Let me tell you it gets worse—current price 2237.94, lower Bollinger Band at 2244, already grinding along the lower band, RSI 22.7 even lower than BTC. Such extreme oversold conditions can trigger a violent rebound anytime that hits your stop loss. My advice is don’t hold on stubbornly, set a stop loss above 2270, reduce your position and exit around 2250-2260 on the rebound, don’t be greedy for the last bit. Funding rate is still positive at 0.01%, bulls aren’t dead yet, shorts aren’t as safe as you think. $ZEC running away nicely at 1172 this round, 2.79% gain is real profit in hand, don’t look back before stabilizing above the middle Bollinger Band at 1197. In this market, BTC and ETH can be summed up in one word: wait. Wait for panic selling to clear, wait for RSI to turn, don’t catch a falling knife halfway down the mountain.$BTC vs $ETH liquidation comparison, market moves in sync, but liquidation intensity differs 📊 This round of decline concentrated on liquidating longs within 24 hours: ✅ BTC: 24h liquidation of 110 million, long position liquidation 90.539 million, long liquidations dominate, many chasing longs were swept out in bulk ✅ ETH: 24h liquidation of 57.392 million, long position liquidation 35.815 million, also mainly cleaning longs, but short liquidations are also significant In 24 hours, a total of 365 million liquidations globally, 89,857 people liquidated, the largest single liquidation occurred on ETH. The market consistently smashed and swept longs, but BTC's long liquidation scale is much larger than ETH's. Do you think the longs will stabilize after this round of cleaning?The two layers of support mentioned in the morning report have both been broken, and this time the dip is accompanied by volume. The morning report mentioned BTC first targeting 76813—76853, then 76386; ETH first targeting 2259—2262, then 2241. Around 11 o'clock, both coins sequentially fell below these levels. From the local high this morning, the maximum intraday drawdown exceeded 2%, so this cannot be considered a normal pullback. The most intense period was from 10:58 to 11:08. BTC traded about 536 coins in the 15-minute candle from 11:00 to 11:15, compared to about 192 coins in the previous candle, with a low of 75734; ETH traded about 5251 coins in the same candle, compared to about 1838 coins previously, with a low of 2227. The simultaneous volume increase on the downside indicates selling pressure has indeed intensified, but I have not found any confirmed sudden event that strictly matches the sharp drop minute-by-minute, so I cannot definitively say a specific news item caused the dump. At 11:16 spot snapshot, BTC was about 76037, ETH about 2239. My judgment has shifted from "looking for support" to "seeing if the price can recover after breaking down": if BTC cannot recover 76386 and ETH cannot recover 2241 within the next hour, the rebound will still be considered a weak correction; if they do recover, we need to see if the subsequent full 15-minute candle can hold. There is high volatility during the sharp drop, so be cautious of risks. $BTC $ETHLooking at this daily chart, Uniswap pushed up to a cycle high near 10.944 before pulling back to test support around the 7.065 zone. Back in mid-2026 it traded near lows of 2.317, showing strong recovery over the months. Historically, UNI hit an all-time high of 44.92 back in May 2021 and crashed down to around 1.03 during old bear market lows. My prediction is that holding this 7 support line could spark a bounce back toward 9. Do you think it will break past 10 next? About to liquidate! Yesterday, a whale opened a high-leverage long position of $101 million on $BTC / $ETH / HYPE / $ZEC and is now facing a floating loss of $1.725 million 30x $BTC long: floating loss of $709,000, with $398,700 liquidation buffer remaining; 15x $ETH long: floating loss of $378,000, with $86,140 liquidation buffer remaining; 10x $HYPE long: floating loss of $618,000, with $6,580 liquidation buffer remaining; 10x $ZEC long: floating loss of $205,000, with $38,280 liquidation buffer remaining. The meme is rising, and even when the official website can't be opened, it's explained as the team being hard at work. I really admire this kind of on-the-spot improvisation. The logic still holds, but asking whether the chips are concentrated or if the pool is deep enough at this moment sounds like asking about divorce property division at a wedding—such a buzzkill. I also enjoy watching the hype around the meme, but the price surging and whether there are pitfalls in contract permissions are two different things. Some discussions made me prepare a reply but then delete it. Well, asking about risks now requires picking an auspicious day first.After 7:30 Beijing time, global assets collectively declined. The core reason is the global repricing of funding costs (money has become more expensive), compounded by political uncertainties such as the U.S. midterm elections and the Middle East situation, triggering a broad sell-off from risk assets to safe-haven assets. What you observe as "all assets falling" essentially reflects the market repricing for "high interest rates becoming long-term." Specifically, several factors resonated simultaneously: 💰 Core root cause: the "gravity" of the risk-free rate · The underlying logic of "money becoming more expensive": The world is bidding farewell to the low interest rate era, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5%. When the risk-free rate is high, all assets such as stocks, gold, and silver must reconsider funding costs and opportunity costs. Capital realizes that the expected returns from taking risks and speculating are not better than directly holding high-yield government bonds, so it chooses to withdraw from various assets. · Failed rate cut expectations: The U.S. core PCE year-on-year remains as high as 3.1%, far from the 2% target, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the short term. The market’s anticipated easing narrative has been completely reversed, becoming the core factor suppressing all asset valuations. ⚔️ Direct triggers: geopolitical and political uncertainties · Repeated Middle East tensions: Iran stated that a ceasefire agreement with the U.S. is still "quite far" from being reached, and the U.S. has not fully responded to Iran’s demands. Previously, oil prices (Brent crude fluctuating above $100/barrel) had quickly fallen due to "peace expectations," but now they have become a variable disturbing inflation expectations again, causing market risk aversion to rise. · U.S. midterm election watch: Policy uncertainty from election results leads capital to prefer staying on the sidelines, suppressing risk appetite. This cautious sentiment directly transmitted to the Asia-Pacific markets, with Japanese and South Korean stocks plunging sharply after opening. The South Korean KOSPI index fell nearly 2% at one point, breaking multiple support levels, and the Nikkei 225 index dropped over 3%. 🔍 Structural trigger: the "trust crisis" in the AI narrative · Concentrated sell-off in tech stocks: Market doubts about whether massive AI capital expenditures can translate into actual returns continue to intensify. Coupled with widening credit default swap (CDS) spreads of tech giants and marginal tightening of financial conditions, capital is fleeing from overvalued semiconductor and AI hardware sectors. In the Japanese and South Korean markets, Kioxia plunged 11%, SoftBank Group and Advantest dropped over 7%, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics turned from gains to losses, reflecting this logic. 💎 Summary When the risk-free rate (10-year U.S. Treasury) approaches 5%, capital demands higher risk compensation from all assets. At this time, repeated Middle East tensions push up oil prices and inflation expectations, further reinforcing the judgment that "high interest rates will last longer." Meanwhile, uncertainty from the U.S. midterm elections leads capital to temporarily stay on the sidelines. Geopolitical risks, political uncertainties, and AI valuation anxieties all point to the same direction—repricing the opportunity cost of capital. Until this macro logic is broken (e.g., significant inflation data decline, substantial easing of geopolitical tensions), the synchronized pressure on various assets may continue.Whale "Landlord" exposes short positions on three coins: unrealized profit of 7.24 million, funding fees collected nearly 12 million On-chain monitoring shows that the whale known as the "Landlord" has updated perpetual contract positions: BTC, ETH, and SOL short positions running in parallel, with a total nominal position of about 640 million USD, leverage only 5-7x full position, strategy clearly leaning towards long-term funding fee earnings. Breaking it down, BTC short position is 2319.6 coins, entry price 76366.1 USD, currently unrealized loss of 1.1849 million USD, but funding fees already credited 3.5374 million USD; ETH short position is 92,500 coins, entry price 2322.72 USD, unrealized profit 6.5669 million USD, funding fee income 4.5017 million USD; SOL short position is 696,100 coins, entry price 94.3346 USD, unrealized profit 1.8605 million USD, funding fee income 3.9493 million USD. Total funding fees sum to about 11.9884 million USD, overall unrealized P&L approximately +7.2425 million USD, total margin about 86.419 million USD. Their liquidation prices are approximately 138,569, 3,786.92, and 292.55 USD respectively, with a large gap from current prices. Low leverage, high liquidation prices combined with continuous funding fees are key for this position to withstand volatility and collect cash flow. $BTC $ETH $SOL Right now, the Bitcoin ecosystem isn't seeing much market activity, and many products look quite similar. When the market heats up, problems will quickly arise. User numbers suddenly increase, wallets lag, index delays occur, balances show inconsistently, and transaction entry points easily get congested. UniSat has been continuously updating the wallet page, transaction records, and signature process, while also integrating different protocols. These are usually minor updates, but when the user base grows, reducing one signature or one operation step makes a noticeable difference in experience. Market trends can bring users back, but how many stay in the end depends on whether these entry points can handle the load. #UniSat #Bitcoin #BRC20After yesterday's rebound, Bitcoin dropped again. The short-term market did not break through the equal high at 78800, so during the day, pay attention to liquidity capture at the equal low of 76300. If there is a false breakdown, the price must recover, and the recovery must be rapid with a large bullish candle body, leaving an FVG gap, before considering going long again. For specific methods, see the ICT teaching series by the chief. If it cannot pull back to 76300, then watch the support at 74700. Currently, Bitcoin has two liquidity pools at 76300 and 78700. Before a crash starts, it is possible to wear down retail traders' patience by oscillating around these two levels, so just wait. For Ethereum, support is at 2200, with resistance between 2350-2370. In storage, SanDisk's movement yesterday met expectations. After the support-resistance flip at 1100, it pulled back to 1150 as given by the chief. In the short term, watch for liquidity capture at the low of 1070, or on the 15-minute chart, follow the same idea as yesterday by focusing on the support-resistance flip at 1110, then look for liquidity above at 1170 for a pullback. Micron continues to underperform; watch support between 790-795. There is no short-term bottom signal in storage; going long is only based on short-term support-resistance flip logic or light left-side attempts. Short positions can still be taken at spots like false breakouts of equal highs. In summary, Bitcoin's daily chart currently does not show consecutive bearish candles expanding the trend, so pay attention to short-term liquidity capture to participate in the market, namely BSL and SSL. The larger daily timeframe remains bearish.$BTC has dropped below 76,000! Historically, after midterm elections, Bitcoin usually experiences a big drop, so this is probably a temporary bottom! The vote count is out, Democrats are temporarily leading, and North Carolina has flipped blue. The shoe has dropped, and now there's just one question: what will Bitcoin do after the election? First, let's clear up a misconception: in the past three midterm elections, Bitcoin dropped sharply afterward. Except for 2010, when BTC rose 30.91% in the 30 days after the election, it was three drops and one rise in four instances. In 2018, it crashed from 6450 to 3160, a 47.13% drop, coinciding with the BCH hard fork turmoil; In 2022, it dropped 18.15%, and three days after the election, FTX went bankrupt. The election itself wasn't the cause, just a coincidence. Both elections and halvings happen every four years, and bear market bottoms generally occur 25-30 months after the halving, which happens to be near election day. This year is different. According to the halving clock, the low point should have been between May and October, but it actually hit 57,718 on July 1, 125 days before the election. The expected drop happened early and is over. Now BTC is at 76,743, with 73,000 below as the short-term holder cost line. I've kept 40% of my position to wait for the negative news to settle after the election; the bottom-fishing opportunity is here, so preparation is necessary. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ BTC is currently holding firm at the 76,000 level, with a small drop but extremely grinding. The current market is basically roasting all the bulls on the fire. First, let's see through the core contradiction of this wave of the market. The current price is exactly stuck between two extremely critical cost lines. Downwards, the overall average holding price of Strategy is $75,451, and BTC is now just 1.7% above this bottom line; upwards, the overall estimated cost of ETFs is as high as $81,500, and BTC is now nearly 6% below this. What does this mean? It means that big money is currently trapped, while the largest whales are still holding on desperately. There is heavy selling pressure from the ETF trapped positions above, and extreme defense from institutional bottom lines below. BTC is like the meat in a sandwich, stuck in the middle and unable to move. Looking at last night's US stock market, it looks good on the surface but is rotten underneath. The Nasdaq rose 0.83%, chip stocks rebounded, and AMD rose 3.65% in regular trading hours. But if you dig into the earnings reports, it's all fluff. AMD's Q3 revenue was indeed strong, with data center revenue up 97%, but the Q4 gross margin guidance actually declined. Advanced Micro Devices is even more of a joke: record sales, but gross margin plunged from 17.5% directly down to 12.7%, and operating cash flow had a net outflow of 434 million. What is this called? It's called revenue growth without profit! Doing AI hardware is all about losing money to make noise. This kind of fundamentals cannot support a sustained surge in chip stocks. The capital shifting from defensive stocks like Apple to chip stocks is at most a short-term rotation, not a big trend. If the Nasdaq is just a paper prosperity, BTC naturally cannot draw fresh liquidity. Tonight is the real dealGeopolitical cooling is a hemostatic agent, not a reversal fuel—whether 78,000 holds above depends not on Iran, but on leverage As soon as the news came out that Iran's Supreme Leader authorized negotiations, BTC pulled back from below 78,000 to 78,152, U.S. stock futures rose in sync, and gold also followed suit. SNDK rose more than 2% pre-market, storage stocks collectively rebounded, and Nomura even shouted "severe mispricing." The picture of cross-asset simultaneous gains is indeed appealing, but directly translating "geopolitical easing" as "trend reversal" misses a layer in between. The quality of the rebound depends on whether leverage has been cleared or is still accumulating. BTC open interest is $52.78 billion, up only 0.32% sequentially, almost unchanged; funding rate is +0.6529%, still a positive premium above one standard deviation; long-short position ratio is 65/35, with the bullish side unchanged. CoinMarketCap's judgment is that leverage reset is "basically complete," but the remaining longs are still paying high costs to hold positions. This means the selling pressure above 78,000 does not come from panic selling, but from longs who have not yet admitted defeat reducing positions through the rebound. Geopolitical benefits gave them a decent exit, not a reason for new funds to enter. SOL is structurally the most special in this round. Its funding rate annualized once reached -7%, one of the few mainstream coins to turn negative, indicating leveraged longs have basically cleared out. The more thoroughly cleared, the greater the elasticity during sentiment recovery—this is also why high-beta assets often run faster in such windows.AAVE remains locked inside a steep descending parallel channel from its 185 USD peak, recently closing below its dynamic MA100 support near 128 USD. Sustained selling momentum leaves price vulnerable to an extended slide toward the 100.53 USD psychological demand zone, which converges with the previous inverse head-and-shoulders neckline. Technical conditions favor a trend-following Short setup targeting 100.53 USD with an optimal risk-to-reward profile and a stop-loss 131.13 USD. $AAVE DYOR$BTC price dropped sharply from around 78,000 this morning. I checked the open interest and funding rates; the market movement was somewhat unexpected. Open interest fell about 4% in 24 hours and has been shrinking over the past few hours. The funding rate is stuck at the baseline with no change. The price is falling while open interest is decreasing steadily. This indicates that this drop was not driven by active short selling. Mainly, the longs who pushed the price up last night are closing their positions and exiting, which pushed the price down. There was no active short capital forcefully pushing the price lower. Just now, there was a short-term dip with volume appearing on the 15-minute chart. The price was pushed down to around 76,000, giving back yesterday's gains. However, open interest continues to decline, and sellers are not persistently pressing the price down. The current price just hit the daily support zone. Buyers are starting to step in here, and the downward momentum is weakening. I am leaning bullish. The current price is right in the daily support zone. The downward momentum driven by position closures is nearly exhausted. Support below on the daily chart remains, so the trend will likely stabilize and rebound around 76,000. $ETH $SOL #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 Very happy to be invited again to participate in the return interview of Orbit #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🫰🫰🫰 Q: You often analyze long and short positions and capital flows. How do you distinguish between institutional hedging and directional bets to avoid being misled by surface-level long-short data? A: Essentially, it still comes down to looking at the data. First, look at the long-short ratio by platform. Institutional hedging short positions are mostly on CME, while retail traders are mostly on CEX or DEX. So I check the long-short ratios separately by platform. I even used AI to create a long-short position analysis of the top 1000 traders on Hyperliquid. (See Figure 2) Second, look at the funding rate. Hedging positions do not chase direction, so they won't trigger extreme market moves. If the funding rate is very extreme, for example, the 8-hour rate for $BTC exceeds 0.5%, then investors are definitely betting on direction. Third, check if the spot and futures directions are consistent. Hedging is for price locking, so the directions of futures and spot are inconsistent. If the spot candlestick shows an uptrend and the futures long-short ratio also favors longs, that means even if there is hedging, it is minimal and can be treated as directional betting. But if the spot price rises significantly and the futures are dominated by shorts, it is very likely that there are many hedgers.CoreWeave default probability soars past 60%, yet Tom Lee claims "AI sell-off has bottomed" — who you trust decides if you're bottom-fishing or catching a falling knife this round. $BTC: The hidden line of defense at 76000 is not in crypto but in AI credit debt. CoreWeave's five-year CDS surged to 1194 basis points, 2031 bonds fell below 80 cents, the market has priced in default as "junk debt." AI infrastructure financing costs spike, transmitting pressure to tech stocks, then hitting BTC again, with leveraged long liquidations accounting for 68.5%. $ETH: BlackRock's ETHA saw a net outflow of 138 million in one day, nearly all of Ethereum ETF's total bleeding. It's not "institutions withdrawing," but the largest institution withdrawing alone; if 2250 fails to hold, the downside vacuum is even bigger. $SOL: A whale deposited 1.49 million SOL (about $149 million) to exchanges within 10 days, while the US spot SOL ETF recorded a one-day outflow of 71 million, a record since launch. ETFs are running, whales are selling; 90.51 is not the bottom but a support being tested. Summary: AI's "debt," crypto is "repaying." Tom Lee says the bottom is risky but selling pressure is exhausted, yet the CDS market is pricing AI infrastructure for default. Do you trust the "smart money's" words or the credit market's feet? Take a side in the comments👇 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 #CircleQ3USDCGrowth Circle (CRCL) is seeing strong USDC adoption, but profitability remains under pressure. Rising revenue-sharing expenses with Coinbase and lower interest rates could weaken margins. The real test is whether Q3 growth comes from genuine transaction activity rather than accounting-driven gains. Sustainable growth will matter more than headline numbers. $CRCL #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Before the U.S. stock market opens tonight, Circle (CRCL) will release its Q3 earnings report. Let's first look at last quarter's figures: USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year; on-chain transaction volume hit $14.8 trillion, up 151% year-over-year — the growth in volume is solid. However, revenue was only $701 million, up just 7% year-over-year, compared to 53% a year ago. Volume is increasing, but revenue isn't keeping pace, for three main reasons: First, the reserve yield dropped by 66 basis points quarter-over-quarter; Circle's income essentially comes from "earning interest on USDC deposits," so in a rate-cutting cycle, this is a major weakness. Second, distribution costs remain high — in Q2 alone, $412 million was spent, meaning part of the growth is effectively working for Coinbase. Third, Wall Street has already "chickened out": this quarter's consensus EPS estimate is $0.37, down 40% year-over-year. But the story isn't over: in September, the Arc mainnet launched, the OCC national trust bank license was obtained, and CPN connected with 175 institutions. The traditional finance line is genuinely being developed. So tonight, don't just focus on circulation — watch reserve yields, distribution cost ratios, and whether Arc and subscription revenues can pick up the slack. USDC is growing, but Circle's profits are "de-interesting," and that's the real challenge. Updates will follow after the earnings report.Qatar says US-Iran negotiations "have progress," BTC once approached 77,000; ETFs, however, withdrew over 1 billion dollars in just two days, and the fear index remains at 34. The news is rising, but real money is still pulling out. Don't directly translate "negotiation progress" as "bull market restart." Oil prices fell back, and the Nasdaq had a slight rebound, which indeed lifted risk appetite somewhat; but the hacker aftermath is still ongoing, and net capital outflow hasn't turned positive yet—the market is chasing short-term narratives, not a trend that's already signed and sealed. Take three steps before making a move: 1) First, see if the net inflow of US stock Bitcoin ETFs has continuously turned positive, not just whether the daily candle is green or not. 2) If negotiation news keeps flip-flopping, don't use high leverage to bet on a one-sided "peace rally." 3) The fear zone can be observed for building positions rhythm, but it doesn't mean immediately going all-in to catch a falling knife. Do you trust the news more, or the capital flow? $BTC #ETF #USIranNegotiations$SOL 150 million liquidated in one hour, mostly long positions. When this number comes out, people usually think the sky is falling, but SOL only dropped from 93.9 to 89.78, and now it has climbed back to 90.4. I think more positions were liquidated than it looks. At 7 AM, I recorded SOL perpetual positions at 336 million, just pulled it to 320.8 million, 15 million gone. The price dropped more than four dollars, and leverage followed with a batch. But the fee rate is still +0.01%, longs keep paying. If it really turned bearish, this would have flipped negative. Volume this hour is 685,000 contracts, bigger than the previous 490,000, but the price didn’t continue to drop. Someone is buying around 89.78. I’m not viewing this as a trend. The election vote counting shook risk assets once, conveniently washing out the leverage piled on SOL. The large liquidation number is because there was a lot piled up before, not because it was smashed hard. Whether 90 holds depends on the afternoon. If it holds, today’s low is just a shakeout; if it doesn’t, the 320 million positions will slim down another round. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ If your position makes you sleep uneasily, then consider this as a page from my risk management diary. Have the BTC and SOL in your hands recently made you check the charts repeatedly? BTC is around 77,928.70, up 1.46% intraday; SOL is at 93.85, up 2.02%. The numbers aren't explosive, but the rhythm is a bit subtle: the rise isn't urgent, and the pullback isn't deep, as if someone is slowly testing the upper resistance rather than pushing the sentiment to the max in one go. When I watch the candlesticks, my first reaction isn't "it's about to surge," but rather "are derivatives quietly adding leverage again?" This round, I prefer to look from the derivatives structure. The price is pushed up, but spot trading volume hasn't obviously increased, indicating that short-term momentum may come more from position adjustments on the contract side. When leverage increases, the market tends to become "fragile": it can rise easily because short sellers being forced to close positions push it up; it can also drop quickly because long stop-losses trigger consecutively. BTC is repeatedly testing around 78,000, essentially testing the willingness to chase longs; SOL is more elastic, +2% looks comfortable, but its volatility will be amplified, and those with heavy positions will feel it more. The bullish path is: if BTC can hold above 78,000 and contract open interest doesn't get out of control, this wave looks more like a healthy turnover, with altcoins and SOL having room for catch-up gains, and risk appetite gradually warming up. The potential risk is: if the price stays sideways but leverage continues to pile up, once US stocks or macro sentiment weaken, liquidations will first hit high-leverage longs, with high b like SOL... This is somewhat interesting, but when I see "relatively firm," my first reaction isn't to chase the hot spots, but to try to distinguish: who really has support, and who is just temporarily avoiding a drop. 👀 According to SoSoValue data, most sectors in the crypto market are down; the GameFi sector fell 3.07% in 24 hours, PayFi rose 0.68%, Meme only rose 0.04%, among which $PUMP rose 7.05%. I tend to see this as partial differentiation rather than a broad warming of small-cap coins. The Meme sector is nearly sideways, and the gains of individual coins can't represent the whole; most sectors are still down, which also indicates that relative resistance to decline is not enough to confirm a rebound in risk appetite. High volatility assets have resilience, but if attention is only focused on a few coins, then when sentiment fades, the pullback could be sharper—that's my speculation. I will continue to watch whether the range of gains within sectors expands, rather than just focusing on the top gainers. Recently, is everyone paying more attention to payments, Meme, or other tracks? What signals will you use to distinguish between resistance to decline and temporary rotation? $BTC After ETF capital outflows, does Bitcoin holding steady mean selling pressure has ended? The disclosed Monday US spot ETF data still shows net outflows. The price is temporarily stable, which could either come from stronger absorption or just a slowdown in selling. I am paying attention to the direction of ETF funds over several consecutive trading days, spot trading volume, and futures basis. If the price rebounds while capital outflows narrow, the recovery is more credible; if the rebound mainly comes with increased contract leverage, caution is still needed against another dip after the buying tide fades.🔥If BTC doesn't break below 76200 twice, does that mean it has bottomed out? I don't think we can conclude that yet, but this signal is worth paying attention to. Looking at the 1-hour chart, there have been two consecutive supports around 76200, indicating that the bears have not gained a clear advantage at this level for now. 📊 However, a double bottom is just a short-term pattern; whether it can hold steady, break through the neckline, and whether the volume supports it are the key factors to judge a reversal. Therefore, I'm not in a hurry to set a market direction. As long as 76200 is not effectively broken, expect a range-bound movement between 76200 and 78800; if there is a volume breakout, then pay attention to the 74000–72000 range below. ⚠️ I won't short unconditionally just because the market is weak, nor will I encourage heavy bottom-fishing just because a double bottom appears. If someone chooses to go long below 76500, the key is to keep a light position, set stop losses properly, and accept the possibility of being wrong. Regarding ETH, it recently touched a low of 2170 a few days ago, and the recent downtrend has eased somewhat. If short positions are already below 2200, consider taking profit on half and observe whether 2100 can be reached with the remaining position. 🧭 What really deserves attention tonight is whether BTC can hold its support and whether ETH can shake off its weakness. Do you think this double bottom has a chance to play out? #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ BTC next 24 hours - Primary support: 76,350–76,500 - Secondary support: 75,800–76,000 - Strong support: 75,000–75,500 - Primary resistance: 77,250–77,400 - Strong resistance: 77,500–77,650 - Previous high resistance: 78,000–78,100 BTC has tested 76,300–76,500 multiple times; repeated testing will deplete buying pressure. If it breaks below 76,300, it may extend down to 75,800 or even 75,000–75,500. Only by stabilizing above 77,400 and breaking through 77,650 can the current weakness be alleviated. ETH next 24 hours - Primary support: 2,237–2,245 - Secondary support: 2,205–2,210 - Strong support: 2,170–2,175 - Primary resistance: 2,270–2,287 - Strong resistance: 2,305–2,310 - Extended resistance: 2,318–2,325 If ETH holds 2,237, it may rebound again to 2,270–2,287; only by stabilizing above 2,287 and breaking through 2,310 will the short-term trend turn strong. If it breaks below 2,237, it is expected to test 2,208 and 2,174 sequentially. Overall assessment Benchmark range for the next 24 hours: - BTC: 76,300–77,650 - ETH: 2,237–2,287market tends to decline before the midterm elections, so what happens after the midterm elections? ┈➤ The stock market is very likely to fall before the midterm elections Looking at the past 30 years of history, including 8 midterm elections this year, only before the 2014 midterm elections did the U.S. stock market not decline, but the Nasdaq 100 still had a sharp dip in October. You can see that although the overall trend of the U.S. stock market in the past 30 years is upward, major drops #Strategy's buyback scale is three times the amount of coins purchased, is the treasury strategy shifting? Let me break down this magical data for you all. Last week, Strategy only spent $65.5 million to buy 811 BTC, which is just a small nibble compared to its usual appetite. But on the other hand, it actually spent a full $208 million to buy back its preferred shares! The money spent on buying coins is not even a fraction of the buyback amount. Looking at peers, BitMine is still stubbornly buying, sweeping up over 8,500 ETH, with total holdings reaching 6.06 million ETH; Metaplanet repaid over $50 million in debt early to free up capacity for more purchases; Strive even issued preferred shares with an annualized 15% high yield to raise funds. On the market, BTC slightly rose, ETH slightly fell, and funds are mostly on the sidelines. My personal view is: the landlord not only has no surplus but has started frantically juggling IOUs. Everyone should understand, Strategy used to be a "borrow money to buy coins" maniac. Why is it now aggressively buying back preferred shares? Because preferred shares require paying high interest! With the current high interest rate environment, continuously borrowing to buy coins means the interest alone could crush it. A community member revealed the truth: "Buying back preferred shares to reduce debt costs is the main theme of this round of operations." Simply put, it's like leveraging to trade crypto, and when the market turns unprofitable, the first thing you do is pay off the most expensive high-interest debt to keep the cash flow intact. There is even data suggesting that its buyback speed exceeds cash replenishment, and the USD reserves may not last through a...