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$HYPE ✅ Key HYPE transfers today (November 4, as of 15:24)
1. a16z related address newly deposited 32,862 HYPE to exchanges
- In the past 5 days, this related address has cumulatively transferred about $15.02 million worth of HYPE to exchanges
- Market interpretation: If this batch of tokens is sold, estimated profit is about $1.08 million
2. Yeti0x: exchanged to obtain 29,870 HYPE, deposited to Hyperliquid, has already started spot selling
- Worth about $2.45 million, key selling pressure order
3. HyperLabs team unstaking redemption progress (old notes matured for payout)
- Previously staked tokens redeemed as planned, some routed through OTC channels, not through regular exchange deposit addresses From tonight until tomorrow, watch two things
Whether BTC can hold above 77,800. Tilen from 10x Research says the stochastic indicator shows oversold, with the next target at 82,000. But the ETF is still bleeding, and bullish bets in the options market alone won’t hold up for long. ZEC’s NU7 activates tomorrow, and around the upgrade rollout, the 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' volatility will likely increase. The 76,400 level held today, and it needs to hold again tomorrow. The order book just bounced a bit, BTC is hovering around 77,500, the buy orders are loudly calling, but there isn’t much real money behind it. This rebound—do you think it’s the last deep breath before the launch, or a polite pullback before distribution? I've been watching this structure suppressed by the moving average for a while. The moving averages above are like a row of windows left slightly open, with wind constantly blowing downwards. The funding rate is still draining the buyers daily; chasing longs at this position is basically taking bullets for others. The original bearish strategy is very clear: wait for a pullback to 77,400–77,600 and open two short positions at an average price of 77,500, stop loss at 78,250, halve the position if it breaks 76,260, close all at 74,735, leverage 2 to 3 times, position size no more than 5% of total capital. I agree with the core rhythm of this plan—not chasing the current price, waiting for the pullback to provide an entry point. But I want to add an emotional observation. The current state of the buyers is like a crowd on the street chasing to take photos, shouting loudly, but the person is walking further away. The sentiment is still there, but the support is gone—this is the most typical feeling during a divergence phase. When the real distribution happens, it won’t be this noisy; it will be quiet enough to make you think it’s stable. ETH is a bit more honest. Quoted at 2,249, down 2.58% in 24 hours, a seven-day range of 2,171 to 2,391, the drop is even more substantial than BTC. Open interest is $1.85 billion, with a daily net outflow of $7.4 million, and a ten-day cumulative net inflow of only $42.3 million. Compared to BTC’s $297.1 million, it’s almost negligible. In plain language: the bears have just entered, there is still room below, but ETThe fate of the CLARITY Act affects the industry more than the election results themselves.
Democratic control of Congress means this bill is very likely to be renegotiated rather than quickly restarted. Warren is a major opponent, and if she becomes chair of the banking committee, the legislative process will slow down. The market has largely priced in this factor, but pricing it in does not mean it will come to fruition. Seeing this, I get a familiar feeling like the script from the last market cycle is being replayed: once the external suspense eases, the market rushes to stamp the new cycle. I’m now more inclined to be cautious and first see if the reasons for the price increase can be sustained.
According to CoinDesk, as uncertainty around the US midterm elections gradually fades, BTC has made a strong V-shaped rebound, approaching $78,000. This time, unlike the familiar cycle narrative from the last round, the direct catalyst given by the news is the decline in political uncertainty, not a new change in on-chain demand.
My judgment is that this is short-term bullish but not enough to confirm a cycle shift. Reduced suspense can lower the resistance of funds waiting on the sidelines; however, relieving concerns and creating new demand are two different things. If there is a lack of sustained demand afterward, I guess the effect of this catalyst will gradually weaken. Do veteran players have the same familiar feeling: after the election suspense settles, what signals would you wait for to recognize that the rise is not just a sigh of relief?"Midterm election historical data: rises after one year, but dips in between
Since 1950, in 19 midterm elections, the S&P 500 has risen every year after the election, averaging 15.1%. Bitcoin's three full cycles also showed positive returns one year later, but it dipped for a while in the weeks following the vote. This year, the US stock market is only 3% below its peak, so the recoverable decline is naturally limited. History can be a reference, but don't treat it as a script.When I saw this message, the first thing I thought of wasn’t how big a story stock tokens could tell, but whether the odds had factored in the issuer’s attitude. Convenient trading access doesn’t mean the underlying resistance is small; I view these two matters separately.
OKXICE announced on November 3 that Apple, Home Depot, and GE Vernova have joined the issuer objection list, increasing the list from 56 to 59 companies. My judgment is that this is somewhat bearish for the stock token sector sentiment, but "raising objections" should not be directly interpreted as "trading has already stopped."
The expansion of the list makes me pay more attention to the uncertainty brought by issuer opposition; if objections further affect product arrangements, then the value of convenience must be discounted. This is my speculation, not a result that has already occurred. If the boundaries of rights and objection handling mechanisms are clear, such products are worth further study; if they only attract attention by familiar company names, I think no matter how tempting the odds are, it’s hard to count on the expected value. What I want to see next is how the objections are handled, not how lively the list is.At 5:15 AM Beijing time on November 4, AMD released its Q3 earnings report. Revenue was $13.38 billion, up 45% year-over-year. Data center business reached $8.5 billion, up 97% year-over-year, nearly doubling. The Q4 guidance is around $17 billion, with a 3% margin of error, the midpoint about 66% higher than the same period last year. After-hours stock price surged over 8%. Last Friday, Intel also delivered a decent data center performance, with revenue up 78% in Q3. However, its stock price dropped 29% that day. The market is worried about its guidance and whether it can meet demand. Both companies are growing, but the market rewarded only one. The market is buying the next quarter. Comparing the two earnings reports, the dividing line is not the past three months but the next three months. AMD's Q4 guidance is significantly higher than analysts' average expectation of about $16.2 billion. Lisa Su said on the call even further: server revenue is expected to double by 2027, and overall company revenue is expected to grow over 80%. Anyone can report growth. The real measure for this round of pricing is whether the next quarter's shipments can be delivered. The real threshold is written in the supply chain. There was a sentence on the call that carries more weight than all growth rates: the wafers, substrates, advanced packaging, memory, and other key components needed for next year have already been negotiated with the supply chain by AMD. AI chips currently do not lack orders; what is lacking is on-time delivery. Capacity must be locked in first before guidance can be raised. AMD no longer looks much like a computer chip company The ZEC community grant controversy has loosened the coin holding structure.
ZCG holds about 91,500 ZEC in the funding pool; some feel the money is being spent without restraint, and a major holder announced a full exit. Some whales are betting on the upgrade to go long, while early holders sold 25,000 coins near 1,514, profiting 27 million before exiting. On the eve of the upgrade, the holding structure is loosening.$ETH has barely moved in the past 24 hours, mainly consolidating sideways to test patience. The key point is that the ETF has seen net outflows for six consecutive trading days, which looks like sellers and buyers have temporarily reached some kind of balance 😂
In short, $ETH and $BTC are following almost the same script right now. Institutional sentiment hasn’t recovered from the coin theft incident and the elections; liquidity is decreasing, slow money is withdrawing, and prices are holding up through supply competition. At times like this, it’s not about who has the farthest vision, but who has the lightest position and can stock up ammo for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.
That’s all, DYOR$SOL
657 million USD, one day's volume.
Breaking news says that the single-day trading volume of tokenized stocks on Solana reached this number, more than twice any other day since September. Seeing this figure, I thought SOL would definitely react somewhat.
But it didn't. Just saw 92.94, the 24-hour high of 93.91 still looming overhead. At 11 o'clock, the one-hour candle dropped to 89.78, with a volume of 1.15 million, the heaviest of the day. Afterwards, at 12 o'clock 830,000, 13 o'clock 600,000, 14 o'clock 290,000, and at 15 o'clock only 90,000.
Volume shrank all the way, price slowly climbed back. This kind of movement is common, after a dump no one takes over selling, nor does anyone rush to buy.
Positions have been replenished though. Earlier 320.8 million, now 334.9 million, almost back to pre-dump levels. Funding rate 0.0082%, longs are not even willing to pay a premium.
My judgment: The on-chain story is hot, but the market is not. These two things can coexist, indicating that the money buying tokenized stocks is not the same group speculating on SOL tokens. Only when they merge will there be a market; for now, each plays their own game.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ A bit delicate: CZ is no longer the CEO of Binance, but a shareholder. When the company runs into trouble, the easiest thing for shareholders is to keep quiet and wait for the PR statement to be released before nodding. He, on the other hand, publicly calls it a "serious security flaw," demanding the company be transparent, take responsibility, and make substantial improvements.
It's quite an interesting scene to see someone who no longer manages daily operations come out to urge those who do to take action. Either he's genuinely worried, or he's speaking up on behalf of the users first.
For ordinary users, there's really just one question: should the money still be kept on the exchange? Whether $BNB rises or not is secondary; first, let's see if they dare to clearly explain the vulnerability. Bitcoin's Three-Cycle "Post-Election Bottom → Rebound" Review
In the history of three midterm elections, BTC has followed the same path: first a drop, accelerated clearing, then a violent rebound.
📊 Data speaks:
2014 (71 days to bottom)
Election day ~$360 → dropped to $230 (-36%) → next bull peak $20,000+
Rebound: +8,600%
2018 (39 days to bottom)
Election day ~$6,350 → dropped to $3,150 (-50%) → 2019 rebound $13,800
Rebound: +338%
2022 (13 days to bottom)
Election day ~$19,500 → dropped to $15,500 (-21%) → 2024 breaks previous high $73,750
Rebound: +376%
🔑 Three rules:
① Bottom lag days decrease: 71→39→13 (market pricing efficiency improves)
② The deeper the drop, the stronger the rebound (2018 dropped 50%, rebounded 338%)
③ Within 12 months post-election, prices are always higher than election day
🧭 Insights for 2026:
Currently, with ETF support + protection fund mechanisms, expected drop is shallower and bottoming faster. If there is a post-election pullback, it could be the "last dip" buying opportunity.
History doesn't simply repeat, but it always rhymes. There's a piece of data that gave me a chill after reading it
Historically, after midterm elections, BTC most likely drops — it was like this in 2014, 2018, and 2022
Those people call this a pattern, but frankly, it just means after the votes are counted, debts have to be paid
According to this script, now is the time to be out of the market, avoid leverage, and definitely avoid contracts
I was ready to accept this fate until I looked at this year's chart and found something off
This year's price has already broken through the downtrend line and has returned above the yearly moving average
In the previous three midterms, prices were still suppressed below the yearly moving average before the election, but this time is different — this time it’s standing on the line waiting for the vote
Same date, completely different position
Looking for answers in old charts is like driving while staring at the rearview mirror
History rhymes, but it doesn’t copy homework
ETH is the same — today at 2288, it stomped on the 2285 liquidation zone beneath its feet, standing with BTC on the same side
But to be fair, the pattern is there, and the position is indeed held; both sides have their reasons, and that’s the hardest part
Going long is blocked by the pattern, going short is capped by the yearly moving average, and people like me are stuck in the middle
Yes, still holding that ZEC short position, and tomorrow coincides with NU7
So at this position, do you trust history or your own eyes?
Comment below and pick a side, I want to see which side the majority supports
$BTC $ETH $ZEC “Attracting overseas trading backflow” is the goal I care about most. The Moscow Exchange, under sanctions, plans to launch Bitcoin and USDT in December, which is easily seen as a demand boost, but I prefer to view it as a battle for existing volume.
On the other hand, changing the trading venue does not equal new demand; launching does not mean users are willing to relocate. My guess is, if there is no advantage in liquidity depth and deposit/withdrawal experience, then the backflow will be hard to realize. I first look at the reasons for migration and am not in a hurry to consider the launch news as positive.$ONDO
Interest rates remain high, so why might the demand for tokenized U.S. Treasuries and the price of ONDO not move in sync?
An increase in underlying yields may enhance the product's appeal, but the returns to product holders do not necessarily translate automatically into cash flow for governance token holders.
If the product scale grows but value distribution remains unchanged, it cannot directly raise the token valuation; only if economic rights and usage growth form a clear connection can the assessment change. Redemption experience and liquidity also need ongoing verification.CZ has spoken out again, this time about the company he once managed.
Binance recently experienced a security vulnerability, and CZ's characterization is severe: it's not a minor glitch, but a serious security flaw. His current role is shareholder, not CEO, but he mentioned three things—maintain transparency, take responsibility, and make substantial improvements. Each of these is harder to fulfill than the last.
What’s worth pondering is the position from which he made these remarks. The founder stepping back to a shareholder role should be the most suitable position for silence: say nothing when problems arise, wait for management to handle it, then nod in agreement—minimizing risk. Yet he chose to speak out publicly. To outsiders, this looks like a "founder returning to the kitchen," but internally it seems more like a stress test—whether they are willing to lay out the details of the vulnerability, its impact scope, and the remediation progress openly.
The real damage a security incident causes to an exchange is never about what was lost, but that users start to doubt "Will it be me next time?" Once this doubt forms, actions become conservative: funds get moved first, positions get reduced first, liquidity thins out first. Fixing the code might take weeks, but restoring trust takes years.
So the key this time isn’t the vulnerability itself, but the response. How transparent will they be, who will take responsibility, and whether there is a timeline for improvements—these three points being fulfilled matter more than any comforting words.
$BNB holders are essentially pricing something very intangible: whether this exchange is still trustworthy. Once the security narrative weakens, valuation moves first, price follows.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The implied volatility of options is very high (close to 89%), indicating that funds are betting on significant earnings report fluctuations; community voting leans optimistic, but institutional research warns: "Revenue exceeding expectations does not mean core business improvement, it may rely on one-time income to prop up the situation"#Circle Earnings Report is on the way, can stablecoin growth generate returns? But this is not a simple case of "Democrats win = world peace"; it may instead open a new window of risks. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ The US-Iran situation will not cool down. Trump has already admitted that the Iran conflict was one of the reasons for the Republican defeat, but he also insists that "significant action must be taken against Iran." After the Democrats take control of Congress, his domestic legislative space will be squeezed, and congressional investigations will follow one after another. In this situation, the motivation to divert contradictions and consolidate the base through external military actions is even stronger. However, since Congress controls the purse strings, large-scale wars cannot be launched, but the probability of small-scale skirmishes and airstrikes increases. Trump's policies will be constrained. Tax reform, increased tariffs, and deregulation of AI will all face congressional opposition. A divided government means a deepening legislative deadlock, and the president can only rely more on executive orders, reducing policy stability and predictability. Europe is likely to be under pressure. High oil prices combined with dollar fluctuations are a double blow to Europe, which is highly dependent on energy imports. Eurozone inflation is already fragile, and if the Middle East becomes chaotic again, the European Central Bank's policy space will be further compressed. The Middle East is entering a period of fragmented turmoil. Iran will not easily submit, and the shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains a constant threat. Regional mediation is underway, but the structural differences between the US and Iran are too great, and temporary agreements could be torn up at any time. Oil prices will surge in the short term but may not hit historical highs. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end Brent forecast to $105, while Shenwan Hongyuan believes it may fall back to around $75 after the election. There is a large divergence between the two, with the core issue being ZEC initially dropped about 10% on Tuesday before rebounding to lead the gains; OKX current price is about 1269, up about 12% in 24 hours, I am not chasing.
Seen: CoinDesk (US Eastern 11/3 23:48) reported that ZEC rebounded about 5% to around 1200 after dropping about 10% on Tuesday, leading mainstream coins.
TokenPost (US Eastern 11/4 00:27) recorded that at 00:25, Binance spot was about 1234, up 3.31% in 1 hour and 8.48% in 24 hours; Binance/Bybit/OKX had about $550,000 in short liquidations that hour, far exceeding long liquidations of about $30,000.
OKX spot is currently about 1269, 24h high 1279, low 1125; perpetual positions about $168 million, funding rate about +0.01%.
My view: This looks more like a short squeeze pulse after a dip, not a confirmation of a new trend; vote counting noise continues, so rallies are more likely to be retraced.
My plan: Observe and not chase. First see if it can retest and hold 1250; if it breaks below this round's low of 1125, the short-term rebound narrative fails.
Do you think we should wait for it to hold above 1250 or wait for a retest confirmation before acting?
$ZEC $BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？Last night, during the US midterm election vote count, $BTC dropped from nearly 78,000 to 75,700 within a few hours, then bounced back to around 78,000—a sharp dip followed by a quick recovery.
I monitored a few numbers: spot ETF net outflow was $399 million on 11/2, and as of 11/3, it’s still showing net outflow; funding rates have hovered around the 0.01% baseline, with no clear signs of bulls adding leverage; the Fear & Greed Index is at 34, still in the fear zone.
My view: this rebound seems more like short covering combined with some uncertainty from the election settling down, rather than new money entering the market. Until institutions stop the bleeding, I won’t chase above 78,000. The 76,000 level has been repeatedly tested these past few days; last night’s sharp dip briefly broke below it once, and if it breaks again, we’ll be looking at 75,000.
I’m holding spot myself, no leverage, waiting for the ETF to turn positive for several consecutive days before making moves. The election results aren’t fully out yet, so volatility may not be over.
What do you think—was that sharp dip a bottom signal or just a continuation of the downtrend?@八佰哥爱理财 has already been beaten down with no fight left, the price remains the same, but the positions have disappeared hahaha
$BTC from 75734 to 77933, today's 2200 points drop was caused by the election and also pulled back by the election.
The spike at midnight down to 75734.5 is the lowest point in 30 days.
With no vote count out yet, the market is betting on whether the two chambers split or the Democrats sweep.
The media judges that the Democrats took both chambers, Trump says he is willing to accept it.
Once uncertainty is resolved, the price climbs out of the pit, rising 1.77% in 24 hours.
The initial drop then rise is not because the news got better, but because the news became clearer.
Honestly, this drop has little to do with the election.
On October 30, the daily candle dropped from 81778 to 76519, a 5% drop in one day.
Those who needed to exit have already done so.
The election just gave the shorts one last knife, letting the price touch a new low.
RSI is 23.9, oversold to this extent, a bounce is very normal.
MA20 is at 80318, MA50 at 82023, two moving averages pressing down overhead, current price is still 2400 points below MA20.
With Democrats controlling both chambers, Trump won’t be able to push crypto-friendly legislation in the last two years.
The impact of the midterm elections on the crypto space is not in today's candle, but in the policy premium unwinding over the next two years.
$ETH $XAU #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ However, I wouldn't attribute every move in tech stocks to the election. AI valuations, heavy capital expenditure and questions about when those investments will generate meaningful returns were already weighing on sentiment.
The election has added another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market.
One important detail: a lot of investors had anticipated a Democratic comeback.
#USMidtermsCongressWatch Calculating, the 199.83 BTC liquidated is about 2.82 times the remaining 70.99 BTC short positions. What I care most about is the latter: after this round of liquidation, the risk exposure has not yet returned to zero. When I see this kind of news, I usually first look at how much is left, rather than rushing to treat the liquidation amount as a bullish achievement.
① There have been 6 liquidations in the past 2 hours, according to PANews citing monitoring data from Lookonchain. The number indicates that liquidations are happening continuously, but this does not mean traders are repeatedly opening short positions, nor should it be imagined as "the more they lose, the more they gamble."
② The liquidated positions amount to 15.45 million USD. This number is eye-catching, but it represents the size of liquidated positions, not the net loss of accounts; mixing the two will exaggerate what this news can indicate.
③ The remaining short positions are about 5.5 million USD, with a new liquidation price of 78,192.79 USD. The material only mentions that $BTC rebounded and broke through 78,000 USD, without providing a real-time price, so I won’t directly calculate the current safety distance using this round number.
My judgment is that this is more like an account risk alert, not enough to serve as evidence for a bullish trend. If the price continues to approach the liquidation line, the remaining positions may be pressured again, which is my speculation; but a single account not holding up does not mean the entire short side has failed. When you see this kind of liquidation news, do you usually pay most attention to the remaining positions, the number of liquidations, or how far the price is from the liquidation price?Macro: Three big pressures weigh down, money dares not move recklessly
1) US Midterm Elections: Not afraid of the result, but afraid "the result hasn't come out yet"
Voting just ended, results will be released gradually over time. Who controls Congress directly determines whether the pro-crypto policies can still be pushed forward.
The market's hardest pain is never good news or bad news, but "not knowing what the news is"—so just pull back and don't bet heavily.
Adding to that, the previous $11 billion options cluster expiration, originally helping to "suppress volatility," sellers have withdrawn, making prices more prone to wild swings.
2) November 6 Nonfarm Payrolls: Too good employment is actually bad news
On this day, the US October employment report will be released. The logic is basically one chain: jobs are found too easily → the Fed has no reason to ease, might even raise rates again → the dollar gets stronger, less money available for speculation → volatile assets like Bitcoin get hit first.
Some trading models now price the probability of a December rate hike at about 79%. The dollar index also rose 0.15% to 101.867, adding another layer of pressure on all dollar-denominated coins.
3) Safe-haven signal: Bitcoin hasn't held up as well as gold recently
Look at a simple indicator—1 BTC now exchanges for about 20 ounces of gold, this price ratio has broken below the old 20x threshold.
Bloomberg's Mike McGlone puts it bluntly: this is not a good sign, tech stocks and "risk assets" like crypto may need further adjustment, and funds prefer to hide in gold.
Arthur Hayes agrees: until the Fed or banks inject more money into the market, BTC is unlikely to have a decent rally, so it remains weak for now.
The only consolation: Trump said "no plan to strike Iran immediately," easing the tension a bit, so today oil, gold, silver, and crypto all rose slightly together.
But note, this is a "breather" small rebound, not a trend reversal to bullish. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 💎 $SKHYNIX USDT – SK Hynix
SK Hynix is under selling pressure. A recovery needs stronger buying volume.
Entry: 1,040–1,045
SL: 1,025
TP1: 1,060
TP2: 1,080
#SKHYNIX #OKX #SonyQ2GamingAndMusic #Solana稳定币卡月消费额创新高
"Solana Stablecoin Card Monthly Spending Hits New High"
Paymentscan data shows that Solana chain stablecoin cards spent $141 million in October, setting a new record.
Year-on-year surge of about 7 times, month-on-month increase of 24%. Spending is highly concentrated, with KAST and Rain together accounting for 93% of the share.
Paying through bank card networks, on-chain assets are accelerating into daily life. The key going forward is the retention of funds after gateway settlement. $SOL #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $ZEC
I just don't understand, the ZEC narrative is still there, so why get off? Such a great opportunity!
Fundamentally, NU7 provides a foundation for an experiential Tachyon setup and an anti-quantum roadmap outlining long-term technical depth. ETFs and shielded pool locks create short-term chip resilience. But governance consensus is not solid, the proportion of transparent pools is too high, and regulatory channels are narrowing, meaning the "real explosion of privacy demand" has yet to be verified by on-chain data.
Just this week and next, ZEC's performance will definitely be eye-catching!#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle (CRCL) will release its Q3 earnings report before the U.S. market opens on November 4. With the expansion of USDC circulation and the growth of stablecoin payment services, reserve income, distribution costs, and profitability will further reflect the quality of growth in the stablecoin business.The US midterm elections have already started leaving their mark on financial markets.
Democrats have secured control of both the Senate and the House, delivering a major political setback to President Trump and creating uncertainty around the policy direction for the next two years.
Markets reacted quickly.
#USMidtermsCongressWatch BlackRock moved $700 million worth of BTC and ETH into custody channels within an hour, but the ETF ledger has seen outflows for the third consecutive day.
$BTC around 77,900, ETF net outflow for three days, single day 115.6 million, IBIT outflow 95 million; 76,759 is the lower Bollinger band, 78,353 is recent resistance on the chart.
$ETH around 2,295, ETF outflow for the seventh consecutive day, single day 85.3 million, ETHA alone accounts for 74.4 million; but the price is the only one among the three coins to close relatively positive. 2,225 is a key support.
$SOL around 92.7, ETF net outflow last week was 71.47 million, the largest single week since launch; reclaiming 93.5 (upper Bollinger band) is the first step for a trend reversal.
Transfers may be subscriptions or redemptions, or portfolio adjustments, and should not be interpreted solely as selling. The real trigger is Friday's non-farm payrolls.
In short: On-chain is moving assets, ledgers are bleeding, prices are bottoming.
For record-keeping of the market only, not investment advice.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ I'm really fed up! The bears finally saw BTC drop below 76,000, hitting a low of 75,690, but in the afternoon it suddenly surged back near 78,000! ETH also pushed back up near 2,290, and even ZEC followed with a rebound. My short position got trapped this round; after waiting so long for a breakdown, I got caught when it reversed! I still suspect this move might be a bull trap designed to squeeze the shorts! The Democrats took both chambers in the US midterm elections, US stock futures were clearly under pressure earlier, and Brent crude rebounded back near $104. Tonight we have ADP and ISM services data, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls haven't landed yet—where's the certainty of good news? For now, I'm leaning towards a volatile bearish bias, but I won't stubbornly insist on a drop just because I'm trapped! For BTC, let's first see if it can hold its current level; resistance above is at 78,831–79,150; for ETH, keep an eye on 2,300–2,318. If it rallies but then gets pushed down again, I still prefer to look for short opportunities on the rebound!$BCH SHORT SETUP
BCH is facing selling pressure near 272.76. A failed recovery toward 273.00 could give sellers another opportunity.
Entry: 272.70–273.10
TP1: 271.50
TP2: 270.40
TP3: 269.30
SL: 273.90
Look for bearish rejection before execution.#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic Let's talk about Zcash ($ZEC) this afternoon.
As of 15:00 Beijing time on November 4, ZEC is priced at about $1271, up approximately 12.4% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $1.07 billion and a market cap of about $21.6 billion, returning to the 10th position by market cap and also trending on CoinGecko's hot search list.
The hype comes from two things: the upcoming NU7 upgrade, which reduces block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds; and the community funding (ZCG) 8% block reward dispute, with the founder of ZODL now supporting a compromise plan. On November 3, large long positions were stopped out, causing ZEC to drop about 11% in one day, but it has basically recovered today.
My view: The upgrade timing is confirmed, but volatility is usually greatest before and after implementation, as the stop-loss two days ago showed. Over 7 days, it still shows a slight decline; this move looks more like a correction plus expectation trading. I am more concerned about whether there will be real changes in on-chain transactions and shielded address usage after the upgrade.
$ZEC Don't get hung up on "why was the prediction wrong this time"; instead, ask a more fundamental question: Do we really have the ability to accurately predict every market fluctuation? The underlying truth of market operation is this: the market is chaotic. Chaos doesn't mean the market is completely random; rather, it is a complex system woven from countless participants, capital, emotions, policies, and industry variables. The variables are endless, and even a tiny disturbance can change the market direction. No one has enough information or computing power to precisely predict the timing, magnitude, and turning points of every fluctuation. Many investors spend their entire lives chasing a goal that doesn't truly exist — finding a method to consistently foresee market trends, obsessing over buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest, trying to catch every market move.#The US midterm elections have entered the vote counting stage, how will control of Congress change? $BTC US semiconductor stocks are still falling, SPCX dropped another 4.93% today. Yesterday I wrote that the US semiconductor chain collapsed, and today that burden is not yet lifted. $SPCX is now 135.25, down 4.93%, opened at 142.24, lowest at 131.78. The daily candlestick body accounts for 63.4%, a solid bearish candle. $SOXL is 75.39, down 0.67%, looking better than yesterday but that was after a 9.55% drop yesterday. SPCX fell heavier than SOXL, why? Because SPCX is the stock token of SpaceX. It has nothing to do with semiconductors, but it is related to one thing: risk appetite tightening. You can tell by the position. SPCX daily is 8.7%, Bollinger lower band at 133.07, today's low 131.78 has already broken below the lower band. RSI 14 period is 19.7, 6 period is 26.0. This position and reading are the same as SOL—both are weak assets abandoned by capital. The aftershock of the semiconductor chain is still ongoing. The damage from Apple's earnings report lies in the CFO's statement "memory procurement prices are still rising." This sentence directly pushed the entire storage chain into the expectation of "rising costs and profit pressure." The collapse of the storage chain will drive what? It will drive the cost expectations of AI computing power. And high valuation, narrative-supported assets like SpaceX fear this the most.$HYPE Observation: ICE plans to bring Hyperliquid perpetuals into the US, while Cboe and Citadel are suing the CFTC
Six days after ICE announced this deal, HYPE has dropped from above $96 on the day of the news to 84.9, rising only 1.6% today
On the positive side, ICE, as the exclusive operator and shareholder of Trade[XYZ], aims to build a US perpetual contract market for retail investors with KYC, running on Hyperliquid, with distribution channels including a joint venture between ICE and OKX
On the opposing side, capital market alliance members like Cboe and Citadel Securities have sued the CFTC, demanding the revocation of approval for single-stock perpetual derivatives, which are the same type of products as ICE's planned stock perpetuals
The ICE plan itself still awaits regulatory approval from the CFTC and others, with no launch date yet
Currently, HYPE's 24-hour range is 81.06 to 87.94, with about $54.8 million in volume; whichever side—litigation or approval—makes progress first will determine if this rally can continue.
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 Though the road is a thousand miles, walking will get you there
Xiao Wang's Fan Cang Plan
The battle situation in the past two days is as follows
3918-3926 Duo 8 Iodine Space, 1548 Youluo Zone
3926-3912 Kong 14 Iodine Space, 1431 Youluo Zone
3908-3898 Kong 10 Iodine Space, 1044 Youluo Zone
3903-3913 Duo 10 Iodine Space, 1936 Youluo Zone
3963-3930 Kong 33 Iodine Space, 3289 Youluo Zone
3962-4004 Duo 42 Iodine Space, 2081 Youluo Zone
Currently, the Cang position has reached 129957, keep it up! #现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 $BTC current price is 77,038 (-43, -0.06%). After the opposing short positions pushed the price from 82,000 down below 77,000, our long positions firmly held the range of 76,600-77,000.
The H1 chart shows a buy signal at the 1.9x point and a buy exhaustion signal at the bottom. Volume is around 78,800. Resistance is near 77,297-77,615, followed by 78,800-79,600. Major support is at 76,600, then 75,600.
If we can hold and break through 77,297, a cheer will erupt; if the opposition can immediately suppress 77,000, they will erupt early, failing the task and effectively delivering a knockout blow.
The opposition still dominates (both daily and four-hour charts show a downtrend). Breaking below 77,615 is necessary for a trend reversal; if it breaks below 76,600, the opposition will continue to apply strong pressure.President Donald Trump could become the eighth president in U.S. history to have the Democratic Party simultaneously control both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Notably, the stock market's history often follows similar patterns.
S&P 500 average gains:
After one month: +2.1% (6 out of 7 times increased)
After 3 months: +10.7% (7/7 increases)
After 6 months: +17.5% (7/7 increases)
After one year: +15.5% (7/7 increases)
Since 1954, this situation has only occurred 7 times, and in all 7 instances, the S&P 500 rose after 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months.
Notably, market forecasts currently estimate a 71% chance that the Democrats will control both chambers of Congress.
Will history repeat itself? At 3 o'clock, Bitcoin stood above 78,000. It was still trembling at 75,734 in the morning, now at 78,016, up 1.82% in 24 hours, with a high of 78,173. Ethereum also followed up, reaching 2,297, up 2.23%, just a breath away from the previous high of 2,308. Those who cut losses this morning are probably feeling pretty bad now. My view hasn't changed: whether 78,000 holds depends on if it can close above it; if not, it's still a false breakout. For Ethereum, the real key level is 2,308; only after surpassing that can it be considered out of consolidation, though it will still be trading within the range. Whether to chase or not depends on the individual; I won't chase the highs, I'll consider it again if it falls back to 77,600. $ETH Square is all talking about altcoins, review: 2,241-2,309 range is valid; long position 25x, open at 2,298 stop loss 2,204 T1 2,309 T2 2,391; Ethereum, always upgrading, never lukewarm; actual rise 2.2%, 25x leverage perspective magnifies about 0.6 times; the biggest fear for long positions is a spike followed by a dump, 25x leverage tolerance is only 4.0%, reverse volatility is fatal; main position locks in profit, base position stop loss welded at opening price, remaining positions float as free chips following the trend, no attachment to battle, no chasing positions #crypto #ETH$XAU Economic data day is here! Four sets of data are coming one after another, can gold still chase today?
Today's market focus is on four sets of data: Eurozone CPI preliminary, US ADP employment, ISM services PMI, and crude oil inventory. What really matters is not the individual data, but their continuous impact on interest rate expectations and market sentiment.
Eurozone CPI above expectations may boost the dollar and suppress gold prices in the short term; below expectations may strengthen rate cut expectations, supporting gold. Then look at ADP employment: if new jobs are significantly below expectations, the market may increase bets on rate cuts; if the data is strong, it may weigh on gold prices.
ISM services PMI is also critical, focusing on the 50 expansion-contraction line, as well as employment and price subcomponents. Finally, crude oil inventory: a large increase in inventory may lower oil prices and inflation expectations, while a decrease may cause opposite disturbances.
Xiaoyu pays more attention to the combination of ADP and ISM. If both data are weak, rate cut expectations may heat up, and gold is likely to get support; if ADP is weak but ISM performs strongly, the market may fall into divergence, and gold prices may fluctuate repeatedly.
Additionally, before and after data releases, funds may rotate sectors, so gold and resource stocks that have risen significantly earlier should be cautious about profit-taking. Especially in the early morning when contract market liquidity is low, rapid spikes can occur, so never blindly chase rises or sell-offs.
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 The boot has dropped! The Democrats have taken both chambers
Negative factors realized, global risk assets collectively rebound
BTC returns to 78K, ETH breaks through 2300
Sentiment recovery rally, beware of volatile pullbacks!
⚠️ This is not investment advice $ETH $BTC
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Strategy spent about $65.5 million last week to purchase 811 BTC, while simultaneously using about $208.2 million to repurchase STRC, with repurchase expenses approximately 3.18 times the amount spent on buying coins.
Here, it is essential to distinguish the targets: the repurchased shares are STRC preferred shares; no MSTR common shares were repurchased that week. This should not be directly interpreted as a reduction in common shares or an increase in coins held per share.
Repurchasing preferred shares involves financing structure and subsequent dividend burdens; purchasing BTC directly increases asset holdings. These two expenditures address different issues.
I believe this arrangement indicates that management is simultaneously attending to asset expansion and the operation of financing instruments. The company has established a multi-layered financing structure, so it must continuously consider how to use cash and cannot be evaluated solely by how many new coins are acquired weekly.
However, just because repurchases exceeded coin purchases in one week is not enough to conclude that the strategy has shifted. They are still buying coins; it’s just that more funds were allocated to capital management during this period.
For holders, I will continue to observe how much repurchases can reduce future burdens and whether the cash spent is worthwhile. Maintaining financing tools well may benefit long-term operations; if they continuously occupy large amounts of funds, it will also affect the ability to buy coins.
I like to see management carefully managing accounts, but I hope market discussions can be more specific. Which type was repurchased, where the funds came from, and what rights were changed are more meaningful than the eye-catching figure of “three times.”
#Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ 🔷 CryptoX-ray #29: $KMNO - protocol earns, holders do not
TVL ~$1.34B, loans ~$862M, holders revenue $0. Market cap ~$176M.
Red flag: vesting tranche ~229M KMNO (~$6.9M) every month, next on November 30. Protocol income for 30 days ~$0.6M.
Verdict: business is strong, token has no flow. Waiting for buyback launch.
Does the token need a buyback or is governance enough? 👇Gold rose 1.59% to 3,960.7, while BTC fell 0.55%. The US dollar also did not strengthen; why did safe-haven funds choose gold this time? 1. News. COMEX gold quoted at $3,960.7, up 1.59% for the day, spot gold around $3,945.2; BTC quoted at $77,091.9, down 0.55% in 24 hours and down 4.3% in the past week. The US dollar index was 101.81, down 0.07% intraday, and the S&P 500 fell 0.51%. The market is simultaneously facing the Mercado Bitcoin security incident and withdrawal concerns at Binance. 2. Capital impact. The latest BTC ETF disclosed a net inflow of $34.1 million in one day, $406.5 million net inflow over 5 days, and $173.6 million net inflow over 10 days; however, there have been reports of large single-day outflows from ETFs before, so the capital is not steadily buying one-sidedly. Gold rose as the dollar weakened, indicating that safe-haven demand remains, but it did not prioritize entering BTC. 3. BTC implications. BTC moves inversely to gold, reflecting that the current market attributes exchange security risks to crypto assets themselves, while treating gold as a more direct safe-haven tool. In the short term, this will suppress BTC's relative performance; but as ETFs still maintain net inflows, the trend cannot be interpreted as a full institutional exit. The key is whether funds will return to BTC after the situation stabilizes. 4. Observation indicators. I will focus on four indicators next: first, whether gold can hold above 4,000; second, whether the US dollar index continues below 102; third, BTC#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 AMD's latest earnings report is indeed impressive, with data center revenue doubling. This is not just a matter of "exceeding expectations"; it's like a strong shot of confidence for the market.
Let's get straight to the key points:
AI chips are truly selling like hotcakes: Previously, many thought AI computing power was Nvidia's solo show, but now AMD proves with data that the MI300 series is really grabbing a share. The doubling of data center revenue shows that major clients are not only buying but also deploying at scale. This is not just a victory on a PPT slide; it's solid order fulfillment.
The guidance is even more attractive than the results: Good earnings only represent the past, good guidance represents the future. AMD's forecast for the next quarter clearly tells Wall Street: "Don't worry about capacity and yield; our supply cannot meet demand." Such confidence is rare in the semiconductor cycle.
Lisa Su's strategy has improved again: Besides AI chips, traditional server CPUs (EPYC) are also steadily growing. This means AMD is not just telling stories with AI; its core business is very stable. This "dual-engine" model is much safer than betting solely on one hot trend.
A sober thought for investors:
Although the data is bright, whether the stock price will "peak on good news" in the short term is a point of contention. But in the long run, as long as the AI arms race continues, AMD, as the "number two," will maintain its cost-performance advantage. After all, not all customers are willing or able to pay a premium for $AMD Let's analyze this together. Seeing those green bars on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts, your heart starts itching again, thinking the bottom is in and it's time to buy the dip. But if you look at the big cycle's capital flow, you should definitely give up on bottom fishing.
First, look at $BTC. Short-term funds are indeed flowing in, but if you extend the cycle to 30 days, the contract side shows a net outflow of 11.381 billion. What does this mean? The main players are distributing at highs and retreating frantically. Although the spot side has a slight inflow of over 70 million in 24 hours, compared to the selling pressure at the hundred-billion level, it’s barely a splash. Don’t be fooled by short-term illusions.
Next, look at $ETH. The pattern is exactly the same. The 30-day contract net outflow is 10.101 billion, and the spot side has also lost 2.8 billion. These two troubled siblings, the main players have long stopped pretending; funds are flowing out daily. If you rush in now to buy the dip, you’re just providing liquidity for the whales.
The only somewhat promising one is $SOL. Although the contract side also shows outflows over the long cycle, the spot side has a surprising net inflow of 29.05 million over 30 days, with 15-day and 1-week periods also positive. This indicates that some big players are quietly accumulating at the bottom. But the overall environment is unfavorable; it can’t carry the market alone and can’t stir up big waves for now.
Summary: The short-term rise is bait; the long-term large outflows are the truth. The main players are all retreating, so retail investors shouldn’t be cannon fodder.
Facing this market of a major player exodus, are you planning to stay out and keep safe, or stubbornly try to buy the dip?
⚠️ Market review is for sharing thoughts only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please strictly control your risk!