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Altcoin Market Observation: Bears are feasting, bulls are getting hit!😤
$TRUMP has broken below a key level, shorts are profiting big this round with nearly $4 million in gains, while longs are floating a loss of about $1.33 million. The trapped positions are too large, and the current upward momentum is insufficient. Blindly bottom-fishing is not recommended; a rebound does not necessarily mean a reversal.
$ONE has been steadily declining for over a month since the violent surge around September 23, with no clear signs of a rebound so far. The weak trend continues, making bottom-fishing very risky. It's better to wait for a clear trend to emerge before taking action.
$ACT is also in a continuous downtrend, with no obvious signs of a rally at present. Opening long positions recklessly here could easily become the next batch of trapped positions. Cautious observation is a safer approach.
The current altcoin market is definitely not a place where you can make money by just bottom-fishing. A drop doesn't mean cheap, and a rebound doesn't mean a reversal.
Patience in waiting for the trend is far more important than blindly entering the market! Bitcoin hit $80,000 and the bears got a surprise they didn’t order. 😂
$320 million in short positions liquidated in just 30 minutes.
Some traders expected a crash. Instead, Bitcoin crashed their portfolios. 💀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto New job additions are only in the tens of thousands— is this bad news or good news?
Market expectations for October's nonfarm payrolls are not high, mainly forecasting between 50,000 and 65,000, while September's new jobs added were only 29,000. On the surface, hiring still appears weak, but judging the economy cannot rely solely on new job numbers.
There are about 7.5 million job vacancies and approximately 1.6 million layoffs, indicating that companies are neither massively expanding nor clearly entering a phase of concentrated layoffs. This state of low hiring and low layoffs may keep the job market relatively stable.
For the Federal Reserve, the most important factors are whether employment begins to deteriorate rapidly and whether wage growth continues to drive inflation. If employment remains resilient, the room for rate cuts may be limited.
I will pay attention to whether $BTC shows a volume reaction after the report is released, rather than automatically interpreting numbers below expectations as positive. The market trades on policy changes, not the numbers themselves.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% 【BTC's strong rally triggers a "short squeeze"】BTC broke through the $80,000 mark, with nearly $146 million liquidated across the entire network in the past 4 hours. Among them, short liquidations accounted for $123 million (84%), with the largest single liquidation exceeding $11.5 million (Binance). Market sentiment is extremely bullish, shorts are being precisely targeted, reminding investors to be cautious of high leverage risks. $BTC #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #SonyQ2GamingAndMusic
Sony’s (SONY) software and streaming platforms must provide a structural hedge against cooling PlayStation console cycles. High-margin digital content and recurring music licensing fees are the primary drivers of underlying profitability. Execution in these high-yield digital segments will determine Sony’s earnings resiliency heading into the holiday season
$SONY Following the US elections, the exit of short positions from the market has fueled a strong recovery for Bitcoin (BTC); rebounding from a low of $75,600, it has touched the $80,500–$81,000 range. Bitcoin Foundation Is this an opportunity for a rally (pump)? According to technical indicators (stochastics), Bitcoin had become "oversold"—partly due to fears surrounding the recent Binance hack—and is now staging a comeback. Mitrade +1 Key Levels (Resistance & Support): The next major target for the During the day, I happily bought $SNDK SanDisk twice, and at night I couldn't resist shorting it again. Currently, I'm floating at a 40XP loss. I'm not optimistic about tonight's opening; there were quite a few V-shaped moves during the day. Please don't let the market makers crush me!
From the recent trend, after a significant drop, SanDisk rebounded about 4.78% on November 3rd, closing at $1126.52, but the intraday high reached $1153, indicating that selling pressure above remains obvious.
I have three reasons for being bearish:
First, the previous gains were too large, and there is still pressure from profit-taking.
Second, Kioxia's cautious outlook on the NAND market is putting pressure on the entire storage sector.
Third, the market is starting to reassess the valuation of AI storage; relying solely on better-than-expected performance is no longer enough to sustain continuous stock price increases.
Tonight, the key support to watch is $1120. If it breaks, the next level to observe is around $1075. If it rebounds and breaks through $1180, it means the bearish logic is temporarily challenged, and then I can directly cut my losses!
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 November 4 $ETH Market Update
Yesterday, we reminded to watch the support around 2220. This morning, the lowest dropped to 2225, close to that support level, then rebounded to around 2266, but the market has not yet stabilized.
On the 1-hour chart, there is obvious resistance near 2318. The second rebound to around 2310 failed to break through, with heavy selling pressure above. Although there is a rebound currently, the highs continue to decline, and the short-term trend has not strengthened.
The preliminary results of the US midterm elections also brought some pressure to the market. The Democratic Party made progress in several key districts, but the final control of both chambers still needs to be confirmed. BTC simultaneously fell to around 75700, and overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Additionally, liquidation data shows ETH breaking above $2359, with mainstream CEX cumulative short liquidations totaling about $776 million;
If it falls below $2136, long liquidation intensity is about $381 million. This is only an estimate and does not mean the price will necessarily reach that point.
Trading advice: Short-term support range is 2220-2230; holding this suggests a rebound expectation, breaking below may lead to a retest near 2170 or continued decline.
Short-term resistance is seen at 2280, with strong resistance between 2300-2318. Remain cautious before a valid breakout of resistance; do not chase longs.
Those holding low-position longs can continue to hold and observe, reducing positions appropriately when rebounding to resistance areas;
Those not yet in the market should patiently wait for a stable retest or a breakout of resistance before choosing an entry opportunity.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ This sharp drop hit 2225, how many people sold at the bottom? Then it bounced back to 2266, playing out like "the bottom is here, a V-shaped rebound is coming." First it triggers longs, then scares shorts, profiting from both sides—this play is indeed ruthless.
But don’t be fooled by the intraday chart. The earlier rise to 2308 was just a bait, the big bearish candle crashing to 2225 was the real harvest. Now this rebound bullish candle shows severely shrinking volume; without big capital entering with real money, it looks more like a pump-and-dump with words. The main force is struggling to create a fake "deep V" illusion—what’s the point? Just to make those who think "it’s oversold and should rise" obediently exchange their U for high-position chips. The 2280-2300 area above is full of longs trapped who didn’t escape; who’s going to be the liberator?
The major trend is still downward. The script after emotional venting is clear: as long as it pulls up to the 2280-2300 resistance zone and clearly can’t rise further, consider it an opportunity to short. Don’t chase longs, don’t guess the bottom, wait for confirmation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $XRP hackers dumped 233 million coins, and with the unlocked tokens, other altcoins would have already crashed.
But $XRP not only didn’t crash, it actually rallied 3.3% against the trend.
The most amazing part is that exchange inventories keep dropping, and all the coins coming out are being swallowed by large spot holders.
The funding rate hasn’t spiked at all; this rally is purely driven by spot buying, with no leverage involved.
After the biggest selling pressure nuke has been dropped, what do the shorts have left to push down?
#XRP
$XRP
👇November 4 $ETH Market Update
Yesterday, we reminded to watch the support around 2220. This morning, the lowest dropped to 2225, close to that support level, then rebounded to around 2266, but the market has not yet stabilized.
On the 1-hour chart, there is obvious resistance near 2318. The second rebound to around 2310 failed to break through, with heavy selling pressure above. Although there is a rebound currently, the highs continue to decline, and the short-term trend has not strengthened.
The preliminary results of the US midterm elections also brought some pressure to the market. The Democratic Party made progress in several key districts, but the final control of both chambers still needs to be confirmed. BTC simultaneously fell to around 75700, and overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Additionally, liquidation data shows ETH breaking above $2359, with mainstream CEX cumulative short liquidations totaling about $776 million;
If it falls below $2136, long liquidation intensity is about $381 million. This is only an estimate and does not mean the price will necessarily reach that point.
Trading advice: Short-term support range is 2220-2230; holding this suggests a rebound expectation, breaking below may lead to a retest near 2170 or continued decline.
Short-term resistance is seen at 2280, with strong resistance between 2300-2318. Remain cautious before a valid breakout of resistance; do not chase longs.
Those holding low-position longs can continue to hold and observe, reducing positions appropriately when rebounding to resistance areas;
Those not yet in the market should patiently wait for a stable retest or a breakout of resistance before choosing an entry opportunity.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ BTC touched 80,480 then pulled back, the 76,800 bottom is considered defended
On the four-hour chart, it rose from 74,909 to 80,480, with a volatility exceeding 7%. According to Rekt Capital, there was a rebound near 76,800, but the amplitude of 5.5% is less than the 13% in mid-September, so the support strength still needs to be observed. The current price has fallen back to the 77,000 to 77,500 range; only reclaiming 80,000 would count as a sentiment recovery.A trader’s decision to sell $ETH and $SOL while keeping $BTC is less a verdict on the assets themselves than a study in how crowded positioning reshapes risk. The stated reason is unusually candid: too many buyers have piled into the same three coins, and that consensus itself becomes the hazard. When everyone leans the same way, the exit narrows. The numbers tell the story of three different outcomes from one thesis. $ETH was opened at an average of 2243.35 and sat at 2290.93, a gain of 28.21U,SLX focuses on yield, ZEC emphasizes privacy, their points of interest differ
$SLX 0.04073, up 1.5% in the last 24 hours, first understand what it actually does 🧩
Solstice handles stablecoins and yield strategies: USX is responsible for settlement, eUSX carries the yield, SLX provides ecosystem function access through staking and other mechanisms, so their uses should be distinguished.
The key is whether users will continuously lock tokens for the functions. There is another quote above 0.04, the market is recovering; what adds weight to pricing is actual usage, just giving it a fancy name doesn't help.
$ZEC 1301.77, up 7.6% in the last 24 hours, privacy is a product feature, don't just look at the label 🛡️
Zcash uses zero-knowledge proofs to validate transactions while hiding some transaction details. Privacy has functionality, no need to force explanations for the price increase.
Up 7.6% in the last 24 hours, price also retreated from 1351. Strength and divergence appear simultaneously, the upward momentum is strong, whether the pullback expands remains to be seen; privacy value can be studied, but the heat depends on trading volume.
$DOGE 0.07732, up 2.4% in the last 24 hours, interest is rising, price is moving away 🐕
Lifted from 0.0723, still in the upper range of the 24-hour interval. In the most recent full hour, it rose 2.4%, trading volume was 349.1% higher than the previous hour, pushing up with increased volume.
Short-term changes lie in volume and price, no need to forcibly promote positives. After a high of 0.07834, it retreated a bit, more like an upward move amid active trading; whether the interest holds depends on where subsequent trading volume settles.Conclusion first: The underlying stock $SNDK dropped 26.1% over five trading days, the 2x daily leveraged SNDK ETF in the US market fell from 10.40 to 5.47, a -47.4% decline; OKX's $SNXX was down 44.3% over the same period, with a 24-hour low of 5.174.
"2x" refers to daily leverage, not the entire period. On 10/30, the underlying stock was down 13.5%, while the ETF dropped 27.3%; on 11/03, the stock rose 4.8%, the ETF gained 9.5%. Compounding the daily gains and losses results in -47.6%, which matches the observed -47.4%. However, "cumulative -26.1% times 2" equals -52.1%, a 4.7 percentage point difference: daily reset and holding 2x for the entire period are not the same.
Regarding money:
① Perpetual 24-hour trading volume is $110 million, tokenized spot XSNXX only 758,000, a 145x difference. You are buying perpetuals, not SanDisk.
② During the 8-hour crash, funding fees were +0.0228%, long positions still paid; this period remains +0.020%.
③ Open interest dropped from $8.49 million to $7.48 million, down 11.9%. Price fell and positions shrank, like longs stopping out and shorts taking profits.
$SNDK had an 8:1 stock split on November 20, with the price mechanically reset that day, don't interpret it as market movement.
What do you think, is the daily reset 2x leverage a harvest or compensation? $SNXX The follow-up to the Binance incident is even more unsettling than the theft itself.
The hackers didn’t get in through some sophisticated vulnerability. First, an engineer searched for AI programming tools and downloaded a tampered installation package, which infected his work computer. Then the hackers impersonated the project lead, HR, and CEO, conducting fake interviews and coding tests to trick another engineer into downloading malicious code. Finally, using the compromised computer and internal AI tools, they obtained deployment permissions from the wallet engineer. Simply put, the security chain broke at the human level, not the technical level. Binance’s latest official update says that 98% of the affected assets have been replenished, with the remaining 2% having poor liquidity and needing to be bought slowly. The reserve proof snapshots have expanded from 10 types to 44, and generating the full ZK proof will take another 50 to 60 hours. The numbers are moving in a positive direction, but the engineering discipline issues exposed by this incident won’t be resolved just by replenishing the assets.Whale Long-Short Chaos: Shorts Trapped Nearly 100 Million, 79200 Becomes the Decisive Battle Line!
$BTC current price 78445, up nearly 2%. But behind this bullish candle lies a tragic split within the whale camp. The nominal long-short ratio is only 23.54%, seemingly dominated by shorts, but in reality, the shorts are being "tortured"!
Let's look at this extremely brutal bottom card:
🔴 Shorts (numerous but cannon fodder): 939 whales, total positions over 3.1 billion U. Average entry price 75996. They expected big profits but were brutally liquidated by this rebound, with unrealized losses soaring to 99.13 million USD, and profit ratio dropping to 39.29%. A large number of low-position shorts are trapped, extremely passive.
🟢 Longs (stuck at high positions, caught in a dilemma): 300 whales, average cost as high as 84449, currently still with unrealized losses of 57.23 million. Although some blood was regained in the rebound, the heavy overhead trapped positions mean there is seriously insufficient ammunition to break upwards.
Analysis by Sister San:
The biggest focus on the chart now is 79200! This is a dense liquidation zone for the overhead shorts. For longs to survive, they must break through here with volume, triggering a chain liquidation of shorts to fuel the rally; if they fail to break through, longs will exhaust and perish.
Trading Iron Rule:
The long-short divergence has reached a white-hot stage, so never blindly chase highs. The overhead short liquidity is a juicy target, but whether longs can consume it depends entirely on volume. Be patient and wait for a breakout at 79200; only follow after a volume-supported hold. A volume-less surge is surely a bull trap.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The US votes in the midterms today.
Bitcoin was higher 12 months after every midterm since 2010: 4 of 4, median +63%.
But midterms run on a 4-year clock. So does Bitcoin's halving cycle.
That changes how to read the record. A thread 🧵Single-stock perpetual futures enter the US, with regulatory boundaries being the core issue
This time, the CFTC allows single-stock perpetual futures to be traded on registered markets that meet the conditions, but these products must comply with relevant regulatory requirements from both the CFTC and SEC, and not every trading platform can list them directly.
Stocks are securities, and futures involve derivatives regulation, so coordination between regulatory agencies is very important. Previously, some innovative products were in a state of unclear regulatory boundaries for a long time; this change means the market is beginning to try to establish a clearer framework.
However, I do not interpret regulatory approval as all products being approved. Exchange qualifications, product filings, margin requirements, and investor protections still need to be confirmed item by item.
The development of $BTC perpetual contracts has already proven that innovation in trading mechanisms brings liquidity but also amplifies risk. Clear regulation is a condition for market maturity, not a guarantee that risks disappear.
#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Previously, I was also quite optimistic about $XRP, but recently the market has shown a thought-provoking phenomenon: wallet numbers and on-chain transaction volumes continue to grow, ecosystem activity keeps increasing, yet the coin price remains weak.
Where exactly is the problem?
Ultimately, the key lies in the lack of a direct connection between ecosystem development and token value. No matter how well Ripple's institutional business performs, the generated revenue does not automatically flow to XRP holders. Currently, there is a lack of a stable buyback and burn mechanism, making it impossible to form sustained value support. As positive factors are gradually absorbed by the market, without new capital and value expectations to take over, the price naturally struggles to keep rising.
Now, looking at another project leaning towards traditional payment, $BCH.
From a practical application perspective, BCH is not without value. Payment platforms like BitPay and CoinGate support BCH, and merchant payment scenarios are continuously expanding. But the problem is, this narrative is no longer fresh. Compared to hot sectors like AI public chains and RWA, BCH lacks a strong new story to attract incremental capital.
Additionally, institutional capital attention is limited, ETF-related progress lacks significant breakthroughs, and overall market sentiment is not positive. Even with genuine
Ecosystem activity does not equal token appreciation, and real-world use does not equal capital inflow.
What truly determines long-term price performance is not just how many users or transaction volumes a project has, but whether ecosystem growth can truly
In the crypto market, stories are important, but value capture and capital flow are even more crucial.Beginner's Diary｜Today I got schooled by $ETH 🤯
Last night I was still studying Bitcoin, but Ethereum quietly outperformed: up about 4.94% in 24h, reaching around $2,397, while Bitcoin only gained +2.72% (TokenPost data).
What's even more interesting: ETH open interest rose 4.2%, even stronger than the 2.7% price increase (CoinDesk). In plain language: it's not just the price going up, new money is really flowing in to open positions 💸
ETH's market share also rose from yesterday by 0.22% to 10.97%.
Beginner's takeaway: when prices rise, check if "money is really coming in"—it's more useful than just watching the candlesticks. But more new money = more leverage, so when there's a spike, you better run fast 😅
Are you currently bullish on Bitcoin or Ethereum? Drop a comment below 👇
Learning check-in, not investment advice
#ETH #USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both chambers of CongressBTC daily chart is oscillating close to the Bollinger middle band, MACD is still weak below the zero line, 76655 is the support line below, only stabilizing above 82624 will open up upward space$The most practical statement today: Futures volume has increased, but open interest hasn't followed.
The volume has expanded while open interest remains moderate, indicating that this rally is mainly due to turnover and short covering, not new leverage being added. A rebound without new money and leverage won't go far, but at least it shows that some of the previous leverage pressure has been cleared. That Wintermute statement still holds: there's almost no evidence of new funds entering the market to support a sustained recovery. Those leveraging to buy the dip have been liquidated round after round, and genuine spot demand hasn't picked up. This is the core issue right now, more practical than any narrative.$BTC $ETH
How exactly is the funding fee calculated? Many people ignore the funding fee, and as a result, even profitable trades end up earning less and less. I'll explain it to you in the simplest, most straightforward way.😃
First, every contract type has a funding fee, some settle every hour, others every 4 or 8 hours. There is a countdown timer in the upper right corner.🤨
If the funding fee is positive, and you hold a long position, when the time comes, you have to pay the short position holders. Conversely, if you hold a short position, you will receive money.😏
If the funding fee is negative, and you hold a short position, when the time comes, you have to pay the long position holders. Conversely, if you hold a long position, you will receive money.😎 Mining company Riot sold 10,599 BTC in Q1, cutting their holdings by about 79%.
The coin price just bounced back to 80,000, but miners first exchanged coins for AI electricity fees.
It's not that "miners are bearish," but that "selling power to AI is more valuable." Riot signed about a 15-year AI computing power land lease contract worth approximately $28 billion; on one hand, BTC is back above 80,000, and on the other, the mining company is rewriting BTC from "reserves" to "cash for building data centers."
Next time you see mining stocks surge while the coin price is flat, ask three questions first:
1) Are they selling coins to raise funds this week or accumulating coins?
2) Is the power contract tied to mining or AI tenants?
3) How many quarters of CapEx can their BTC inventory support?
Don't just look at green K-lines; see if miners are "exchanging coins for power."
Notes from Fu Jia's kid watching the market: a green candle doesn't mean miners are holding. Do you believe the coin accumulation story or the power story more?
$BTC #Bitcoin #MiningCompanyThree rejections since October 2025. $BTC has again retested the $75,389 Short-Term Holder Realised Price as support and bounced 4%.
Spot and institutional flows are sell heavy, but perp traders are keeping price supported. Bulls need spot buyers to make the rebound last.$6.3 billion stolen, Coinbase immediately emphasizes: 99% of customer assets are in cold wallets.
Binance suffered a hacker attack involving about $6.3 billion, while Coinbase stated it was not affected. The judgment leans bearish, impacting the trust layer of centralized exchanges. A $6.3 billion scale is not a single project vulnerability but a signal that the security system of a leading exchange has been breached. Short-term funds will likely reassess exchange custody risks, with some positions possibly shifting to cold wallets, self-custody, or platforms with stronger compliance.
Coinbase's statement is a defensive posture and also a relative beneficiary—when trust is damaged, emphasizing cold storage and asset segregation can attract risk-averse funds and institutional clients, which is a plus for COIN's relative position. However, this is a marginal benefit in terms of PR and trust, not equivalent to new on-chain demand.
Operational focus on two points: first, the follow-up progress on Binance's withdrawal and deposit suspensions and compensation plans; second, whether funds are migrating from Binance to other platforms or self-custody. Such events first hit sentiment, then talk about recovery; short-term volatility will be amplified. It is neither advisable to blindly bottom-fish in panic nor to ignore the risk of chain liquidation. Involving mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, this is a market-level risk event with a bearish bias.
Source: The BlockBTC Brief: Institutions Are Still Withdrawing, Watch for Resistance on the Rebound
On November 4, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $398.6 million. BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day outflow of approximately $405.3 million, Fidelity's FBTC bucked the trend with a slight inflow of about $6.7 million, while most other products showed limited changes. The combined outflow on Friday and Monday totaled about $1.04 billion, basically wiping out last week's inflows.
The market remains weak. BTC is currently priced around $77,010, with a 24-hour high of $78,254 and a low of $76,386, and a funding rate of about 0.01%. During the day, the price repeatedly tested the $76,400–$76,500 range, and the rebound was blocked near $77,500.
IBIT's single-day withdrawal of over $400 million indicates that institutions are still reducing exposure, not just retail sentiment. The current bottoming is not considered a trend reversal; to turn bullish, ETF outflows need to at least show signs of slowing.
In the short term, $76,500 is the support level; reduce positions if it breaks down. The first resistance is at $77,500; if it holds above, then watch $78,000. Set stop-loss below $76,200, with a target initially at $78,000, maintaining a light position.#全球央行Q3购金321吨，金价为何持续承压？ Central banks bought 321 tons of gold in Q3, but why does the gold price keep under pressure? Central banks are aggressively buying 321 tons, yet gold prices have dropped by a quarter: who exactly is "fighting" here?
In the third quarter, global central banks purchased 321 tons of gold, a 42% year-on-year increase, marking the strongest single-quarter gold buying record since the end of last year. In the past, when central banks bought this much, gold prices would have soared. But the reality is, gold prices have fallen from the year's high, dropping nearly a quarter, even breaking below the $4000 mark.
On one side, central banks are "buying up," while on the other, gold prices are "plunging"—this situation is indeed a bit contradictory.
The root of this contradiction lies in the word "interest." Central banks buy gold for "safety," for reserve diversification, and to hedge against the depreciation of fiat currency purchasing power. They look at this money over five or ten years and don't care about gold price fluctuations next month. But most money in the market doesn't think this way. After the Iran war broke out at the end of February, oil prices were pushed above $110, inflation pressures resurfaced, and market expectations for Fed rate hikes suddenly soared to 86%. The dollar became stronger, U.S. Treasury bonds started yielding interest, while gold pays zero interest. So, money that originally sought "safe haven" turned around and ran to buy U.S. Treasuries to earn interest.
What's more troublesome is that this round of geopolitical conflict transmission is completely opposite to before: once the gunfire starts, oil prices rise first; when oil prices rise, rate hike expectations follow; when rate hike expectations rise, non-yielding gold gets hit. The traditional "buy gold in troubled times" logic temporarily fails in the face of this chain.
$BTC Nonfarm payroll night, $BTC faces a big test at 78,000
Friday 21:30, US October nonfarm payrolls release. The market expects an increase of 60,000–65,000 jobs, unemployment rate at 4.2%, and futures price in about a 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. Before Powell speaks, the market votes first; 78,000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears.
Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations (employment > 65,000)
Data is hot, the dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen simultaneously, putting pressure on risk assets. If BTC falls below 78,000, bears dominate, but sharp drops often see rebounds; take profits without clinging to the fight, and consider scaling out around 77,500.
Scenario 2: Data misses expectations (employment < 50,000)
Employment cools down, rate hike expectations ease, liquidity sentiment recovers, and BTC may see a rebound window. If the price climbs back above 78,500, short positions should exit decisively; don’t let a small mistake turn into a big one.
Scenario 3: Neutral data (50,000–65,000)
Bulls and bears tug-of-war, repeated consolidation around 78,000. At this time, guess less about direction, watch for confirmation, and wait for new clues from the December FOMC meeting.
In short: Nonfarm payrolls are the trigger, position sizing is the seatbelt. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 BTC intraday hits MA25 resistance! Online is bullish, offline is bearish! Watch the closing situation!
According to the 【Moving Average Strategy】, BTC intraday on November 5th hit the MA25 resistance (the resistance level is the position to reduce holdings; buy back after breaking through; continue holding half the position entered previously at the MA365 bull-bear dividing line). If it closes above, the signal turns bullish (if it falls below MA25 again afterward, it turns bearish again). Based on evidence, follow the market accordingly, and operations will no longer be confused. Bitcoin #Bitcoin BTC #BTC $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
The Democrats took control of both the Senate and the House, winning by a margin even stronger than the polls predicted. The Senate gained a net 7 seats, with Texas electing a Democratic senator for the first time since 1988, and Kansas for the first time since 1932. The House also surpassed the 218-seat threshold, and Jeffries is set to become the first Black Speaker. The Texas governor Abbott was also ousted.
The Republican losses stem from oil prices and Iran. Before the war, gasoline was just over $3, then broke $4 within a month, a 35% increase, causing prices for daily goods, logistics, and dining to rise accordingly. Voters cast their ballots holding gas receipts.
But Trump holds the veto power; he put it bluntly: "I have ultimate power, it's called the veto." The Democrats can block legislation, conduct investigations, and stall appointments, but they can't get their own agenda past him. There's a saying from Tsinghua that fits well: "Lame but not paralyzed." Don't expect major reforms; executive orders and lawsuits will increase, and policy uncertainty will rise.
The next two years will be a deadlock, with neither side able to accomplish much, but both fully capable of making things unpleasant for each other. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) expects to exceed expectations in its Q3 2026 earnings report. This optimism is mainly driven by the significant surge in shipments of high-speed fiber optic modules (such as the 400G and 800G families, and the commencement of 1.6T shipments) destined for giant AI data centers. #Significant surge in high-speed fiber optic modules. AAOI, can the Q3 report exceed expectations? Yes, there is strong expectation and optimism in the markets that Applied Optoelectronicll Don't rush to jump in on low volume, first arrange your positions properly (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Midterm election vote counts are coming in, with the Democratic Party temporarily leading. The market is low volume, guessing the direction isn't profitable; how to allocate positions is the key. The three brothers are repositioned:
$BTC — The ballast stone: 24-hour low volume grinding between 76387—78064, with only 10,516 coins traded, fearing greed at 34. Sentiment is warming up, but funds are not rushing to add; 60% of the base position is held down, remaining bullets wait for election downside to land before moving (:з」∠)
$ETH — The flexible position: ETH/BTC rose to 0.0294, stronger than BTC in a single day. Staking queue is blocked, exit queue is empty, chips are locked, suitable for an aggressive flexible position ٩(ˊᗜˋ*)و
$ZEC — The independent defense line: Retraced to 1250 but still holding 1200, governance turmoil caused nearly 100,000 coins to exit free circulation, supply is shrinking. 1200 is the lifeline, no break no move 🐢
In a low volume market, don't rush to bet on the strong taking off immediately; first defend against the weak falling further, that is discipline. Base position, flexible, defense line each in their place: BTC holds the line, ETH charges, ZEC defends. Next, act less, wait more for signals, let time slowly ferment (￣▽￣)ノ
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $TRUMP
At 1:48 PM I wrote a sentence: What’s falling is the story, not the position.
Now at 1.265. The 1H candle at 01:00 plunged straight from 1.396 to 1.218, the 24-hour low is that number just now, down 12.7% in one hour, with a volume of 8.14 million USD, the previous candle was 1.69 million, nearly five times difference.
Interestingly, the open interest didn’t shrink. At 22:00 it was 18.42 million contracts, at 01:00 it was 19.16 million, during the dump about 700,000 more were added. The fee rate flipped negative to -0.0186%, shorts started paying longs.
So this dump is not a long stop-loss stampede, it’s shorts chasing in to short. After chasing down to 1.265, it was bought back, now those shorts stuck between 1.22-1.25 look bad, and the fee rate is deducted every eight hours.
The story of the Democrats taking both chambers was priced in yesterday. Today’s 12% drop is not a new plot, it’s the last cleanup of those who didn’t exit last round. The difference is this time the cleanup hits the shorts themselves.
My sentence this afternoon was half right. The story is indeed falling, and the position didn’t hold — from 1.48 to 1.22, seventeen points lost.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
I believe Moderna (MRNA)'s upcoming Q3 earnings report deserves close attention. Currently, 82% of the forecast market leans toward better-than-expected results, reflecting strong optimism. The market expects revenue of about $890 million this quarter, a significant rebound from Q2, but vaccine sales are highly seasonal, so simple quarter-over-quarter growth is not enough to prove a full recovery. The core of this earnings report lies in actual vaccine sales, the extent of loss narrowing, and the full-year performance guidance. Meanwhile, new vaccine commercialization and cancer treatment R&D progress provide support for long-term valuation. I see short-term upside potential beyond expectations, but the optimism may already be priced into the stock. Even if results improve, caution is needed for a pullback risk after positive news is realized. Overall, I remain cautiously optimistic about the mid-to-long-term outlook, focusing more on the gap between earnings data and market expectations in the short term rather than blindly chasing gains. $BTC
380 million USD. During the 23rd hour, all short positions across the network were liquidated to this amount.
The market action is very straightforward. At 22:00, the price was pulled from 78,366 to 79,345, with a volume of 785 contracts; at 23:00, it was directly pulled to 81,200, with 1,750 contracts, while the previous candle had only 222 contracts. After the spike, it closed at 80,299, failing to hold above 81,200.
But open interest did not keep up. At 22:00 it was 3.84 billion, at 23:00 3.875 billion, then dropped back to 3.835 billion at 00:00, now 3.846 billion—basically flat. The positions liquidated were shorts; the buyers were not new money.
The funding rate is 0.00855%, still below the 0.01% baseline. The price has risen 6.5% from the 24-hour low, yet the bulls are unwilling to pay even this small premium.
Two accounts don’t add up on the same night. News flash says there are 337 million short liquidations above 82,000. But there is also an address transferring 813 BTC to Coinbase Institutional, worth 65.4 million USD, which values each BTC at 80,443, the current price. Some are waiting above to see shorts get liquidated, while others are moving coins to exchanges below.
My judgment is clear: this is a short squeeze, not the start of a new trend. The next two 1H volumes dropped to 686 and 371 contracts, thinning out as time goes on. If 82,000 is truly taken out, I’ll change my view, but I won’t chase this level now.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Cross-border payroll is being replaced by a single API.
Stripe's Global Payouts now allows eligible U.S. businesses to send USDC and OUSD directly to external crypto wallets of payees in over 160 markets. The funds come from the Stripe Treasury balance, with a fee of 0.5% plus $0.5 per transaction, usually arriving within minutes. It is currently in public preview, and New York State businesses must apply separately for early access.
Let's look at the pricing structure first. The 0.5% is a proportional fee, and the $0.5 is a fixed fee. The smaller the amount, the more the fixed fee bites: sending $20 costs 2.6%, while sending $20,000 is just 0.5%. This is clearly aimed at bulk corporate payments, not small personal transfers.
Now, the money flow. Previously, cross-border payments had to go through correspondent banks, SWIFT, and wait days for clearing; now the funds come from Stripe's balance and land directly in the recipient's wallet, with no banks in between. OUSD issued by Stripe itself is also on the list; it acts as both the channel and the issuer.
My judgment: this is not just adding another way to receive crypto, but stablecoins entering corporate accounts payable. The usage of $USDC will follow B2B channels in the future, no longer just tracking exchange volumes.
Worth considering: payroll can now arrive in minutes, so is 0.5% expensive? It depends on the counterparty's cost to convert back to fiat, which remains in their hands.On October 28, I already mentioned that the $ETH correction was not over yet. The heavy pressure from the red and green Gann 2/1 angle lines in Chart 1 caused the market to continue downward after being blocked at this position. Subsequently, ETH hit a low of 2174, which matched the prediction ✅
Key observations going forward:
Only by firmly holding above the green Gann 2/1 line (2330) in Chart 2, and not falling below the 2150–2175 support zone, can the correction that started at 2807 be declared over.
After surpassing 2330, the next observation point is 2420. A valid breakthrough and stable hold above 2420 will greatly increase the probability that the correction has ended.
Reviewing previous cycle judgments:
As early as mid-January 2026, it was predicted that ETH's decline would continue until Q3, targeting around 1500; when it reached 1505 in early June, it was again indicated that a new weekly-level upward rally had started, with this rally reaching a maximum increase of 86%.
From a structural division perspective: the decline starting at 2807 is defined as a correction at the same weekly level as the 1505–2807 weekly rally. Currently, this correction is nearing its end, and it may have even bottomed out.
Once this correction is confirmed to be over, a weekly-level rally of the same magnitude as 1505-2807 will begin, with expectations of stronger upward momentum.💸 $AAPL LONG
Entry: $342.00 – $349.00
Stop Loss: $326.50
🎯 TP1: $360.00
🎯 TP2: $372.00
🎯 TP3: $385.00
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (4/5)
Why Long Is Better 1Week Candle Show The Strong Buying Interest Push The Price Go Higher Nonfarm night, the critical survival line for BTC at 78000
Friday 21:30, US October nonfarm payroll data release. The market expects new jobs to increase by 60,000–65,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, and futures price about 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. Powell holds the policy switch for December, making the BTC 78000 level a key battleground for bulls and bears.
Scenario 1: Employment above 65,000
Economy overheats, rate hike expectations rise, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, BTC comes under pressure. Shorts near 78000 can dominate, but it’s advisable to reduce positions gradually around 77500 to avoid turning profits into risks.
Scenario 2: Employment below 50,000
Employment cools down, liquidity expectations ease, BTC is likely to see a rebound window. Shorts should not hold stubbornly; a decisive stop loss above 78500 is recommended to avoid adding positions against the trend.
Scenario 3: Between 50,000 and 65,000
Data is neutral, bulls and bears tug back and forth, direction will likely be decided at the December FOMC meeting. Control position size and wait for the market to choose sides.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 The U.S. stock market experienced an unexpected surge!
On November 4, the Democratic Party won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections, breaking the Republican Party's previous control over both chambers of Congress.
After the news was announced, U.S. stocks rebounded strongly.
Among them, Amazon rose about 7.4%, Apple nearly 7%, and Microsoft, Google, and Meta also climbed.
According to Reuters' statistics, if the gains hold, the combined market value of these five tech giants could increase by more than $750 billion.
Interestingly, the market did not panic over the Democrats regaining power; instead, it bet that divided government would limit drastic policy shifts, reducing market uncertainty.
However, not everyone in the AI industry benefited. The market is concerned that the Democrats will strengthen data center regulations, causing related infrastructure companies to face sell-offs.
This market movement once again shows that capital market trading is not just about economic data but also about expectations for future policies and industry landscapes.I am the mid-term intelligence guy
Today the US midterm elections landed, the market first dropped then pulled back. I watched the market and saw $BTC dip to 75,000 then violently rebound to 81,190, $ETH also rose to 2,450 USD,
But currently the sentiment seems to have eased, though the capital flow hasn't truly reversed.
I checked the data for November 3rd: BTC spot ETF net outflow was 120 million, ETH net outflow was 90 million with continuous withdrawals for 7 days, $SOL also had a net outflow of 70 million in the past 7 days, institutions are still reducing positions.
From a technical perspective, BTC has support around 75,000, but 82,000 is a resistance zone; without volume to hold above it, it's just an oversold correction. If it breaks below the 75,000 low again, further probing is needed.
ETH's rebound is slightly stronger, but ETF outflows are more troublesome; support is seen around 2,280, resistance near 2,450.
Mid-term, I will continue to observe and wait for capital to flow back before taking action.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The vast majority of people in the market have locked onto the same projection path: September's new employment added only 29,000, and the market assumes that if October's data is weak, it will open up upside space for risk assets. This consensus logic is smooth enough—employment data continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve's rate hike constraints will loosen, and funds will naturally be willing to tilt toward the crypto market. Everyone has handed over the market's direction choice to the nonfarm payroll report, waiting for this report to break the prolonged downward trend, rarely considering the possibility of expectations being priced in early. BTC is stuck around 76,000, repeatedly hovering; several attempts failed to trigger an effective rebound, with the price suppressed below the moving average, showing a short-term weak state on the chart. It hasn't initiated an independent rally but quietly stays within the range, waiting for external news to decide which direction to break out. ETH is consolidating near 2250, with support at 2200 temporarily holding off selling pressure, and the 2300 boundary firmly sealing off upward space. It is deeply tied to BTC; before the data release, on-exchange funds lack the motivation to actively test this resistance zone, so the range-bound oscillation will continue. This consensus hides a variable that is easy to overlook. Even if October's employment falls within the estimated range of 60,000–80,000, the positive effect may be realized early; once the data is significantly stronger than expected, the entire easing narrative will instantly collapse. The signal that can falsify the current consensus is not a single candlestick fluctuation but the data release directly breaking through the support boundary everyone relies on.$BTC Observation: A pullback from 75734 to 80418 in one day, but ETFs saw an outflow of $1.16 billion over three days
Who is buying BTC in this rebound? At least it's not ETFs
Current price 80418, up 3.57% in 24 hours, the low of 75734 appeared as news of the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress spread, followed by a V-shaped recovery, with a trading volume of $830 million
CoinDesk reports that on election day, BTC bullish options block trades more than doubled compared to the previous day. Markus Thielen from 10x Research believes momentum indicators show oversold conditions, with a rebound target near 82000
On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.16 billion, with $115.6 million outflow on November 3, including $95 million from IBIT
Daily outflows have dropped from $643 million to $116 million. Whether ETFs can turn to net inflows will determine if the price can hold above 80000.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 I discovered something interesting: when I stopped focusing on the crypto circle and no longer concentrated on $BTC, my trades went exceptionally smoothly, and the market movement even followed my expectations perfectly!
Because two days ago, I predicted that the Democratic Party would take control of Congress, which I saw as a shock to the Trump administration. Coupled with the recent very low sentiment in the entire capital market, I thought this might be an opportunity to ignite sentiment, so I preemptively placed a long position on $BTC.
I didn't actually expect to take profits because there was still a lot of uncertainty, but fortunately, $BTC had a very low point recently that it just couldn't break below, so I thought it was still worth trying to go long.
Note that this was just a trial to go long; I was ready to cut losses decisively. On one hand, the position size was small, and on the other, I could operate flexibly. But the outcome was good—I didn't even get a chance to act, hahahahaha, opportunity! 😄
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Democrats won both chambers, do you think it's over? $BTC
Senate seats 54:44, with 2 seats still undecided.
House seats 222:138, with 75 seats still undecided.
But don't forget the difference in significance between Congress members and the President.
For the presidential election, 270 votes: 268 votes or 370 votes: 168 votes might not make much difference; it's the same president taking office.
But the two chambers are different. Take the House of Representatives as an example: currently, the results show Democrats with 222 seats, Republicans with 138 seats, and 75 seats undecided. Two extreme scenarios, 297:138 and 222:213, are different because the vote margin between the two parties affects decision-making in the House.
Take the recently discussed "Crypto Clarity Act" as an example. Democrats are not very supportive of this bill. If Democrats have 222 seats versus Republicans' 213, then after moderate amendments, the "Crypto Clarity Act" still has a chance to pass the House. But if it's 297:138, the probability of the "Crypto Clarity Act" passing might be relatively slim. $ETH
This is the suspense that still exists in the midterm elections. The Republicans lost both chambers, but the suspense lies in how much they lost. That is also very important! $HYPE $ZEC People say that to trade ZEC, you need to use Fibonacci to understand the direction. I'll try it next time.
Wave selection: This round's low point 1048.53, previous high 1697.45
Fibonacci retracement levels:
- 0.236: 1201.68 (support)
- 0.382: 1296.42 (near current price, first short-term barrier)
- 0.500: 1372.99 (core mid-term resistance)
- 0.618: 1449.56 (strong resistance)
- 0.786: 1558.58 (secondary high resistance)
Chart analysis (daily):
Current price 1307.21, just firmly above the 0.382 level at 1296.42:
1. Short-term: 1296 is the first support line. Holding here means a healthy bullish structure; the next target is the 0.5 level at 1373, which is the most important watershed for this rebound;
2. If it surges to around 1373 but faces resistance and volume increases while falling back, the market is likely to return to consolidation and test 1296;
3. A valid break below 1296 means this rebound weakens, and attention returns to support near 1201;
4. Only with volume-backed stabilization above 1373 is there a chance to challenge 1449, 1558, and approach the previous high of 1697.
Combined with the Bollinger Bands on the chart: the upper band is at 1343.63, right between 1296 and 1373, acting as a short-term mid-way resistance.📊 xINTC/USDT Market Update
Current Price: $59.30 (down -2.83% today)
📉 Testing support near the 24h low of $56.80, with a 24h high of $xINTC 62.37.
💡 Short-Term Outlook:
🟢 Support Zone: $55.00 - $58.00
🔴 Resistance Target: $62.00 - $65.00
Downward pressure remains heavy below major moving averages. If buyers can successfully defend the $xINTC 55 support level, watch for a potential relief bounce toward the moving averages. Manage your risk closely! ⚠️📉💎 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $BTC just hit the 7.6k stop loss and then surged, establishing short positions between 80.5k-82k for a long-term bearish outlook