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Don't be brainwashed by the news from JPMorgan, thinking BTC is about to see a big institutional buying spree.
Farside data shows that BTC spot ETFs have had net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling 1.158 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a single-day outflow of 95 million. On one hand, forward-looking reports are built into models; on the other, real money is continuously withdrawing from BTC.
JPMorgan only includes BTC in a 10-15 year projection with an annualized volatility of 55%, and it hasn't even been included in the core allocation matrix. This is a long-term simulation, not a call for you to go long BTC right now.
ETH is even tougher. BTC has gained new institutional narrative material, but ETH lacks equivalent positive support. When BTC has small pulses upward, ETH barely follows to catch some of the rally; when BTC funds withdraw, ETH falls even faster.
BTC's current gain is only +0.36%, and the market is already very honest. BTC's long-term story is beautiful, but short-term capital simply isn't buying it.
Many people hold this report and simultaneously bet on BTC and ETH rising unilaterally, completely misunderstanding the rhythm. Institutions look at returns over more than a decade, while you trade short-term BTC and ETH contracts—the logic doesn't match at all.
Going forward, BTC and ETH will still be in a consolidation phase. Positive news is used to lure buyers, but the pressure from ETF outflows persists. BTC struggles to rally, and ETH gets repeatedly harvested along the way.
When trading BTC and ETH, don't use long-term stories as the basis for current positions. $BTC $ETH #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 The Democratic Party took control of Congress, increasing regulatory uncertainty again, but the market did not decline as expected.
$BTC broke through $80,000, but the rise looks more like short covering; ETF funds have not clearly flowed back, and there is still selling pressure around $81,300.
$ETH's rebound is weak, yet whales continue accumulating at low levels, showing a clear divergence between bullish and bearish funds.
$OKB's rise is limited; platform fund inflows have not truly converted into token buying, and capturing ecological value remains a key issue.
My view: a price rebound does not equal a return of funds. What to watch next is not who shouts the loudest, but who has real buying support.
#USJobsReportInFocus Staring at this weekly chart of SNDK, I, the old pig, can basically swear on it: SanDisk, and even the entire storage industry, the weekly and even monthly level pullback is just the beginning. $SNDK
At the 1001.4 level in the chart, the bottom of that previous orange box has been completely stripped away. The weekly moving average system has now all become a heavy burden pressing down, and the lower BOLL band at 979 simply can't hold this level of selling pressure. This big bearish candle smashing down is definitely not the usual shakeout; this is big money decisively retreating, fleeing for their lives.
Many people think that dropping to just over a thousand is cheap and want to reach out to catch it. But in my view, this is purely a misunderstanding of the harsh strong cycle. In the storage business, once the price hike story can no longer continue, the destocking process is like rubbing retail investors down to the ground repeatedly. Last quarter, price hikes still contributed two-thirds of revenue, but this quarter management has directly backed down, guiding down to 40%, with only the phrase "moderate price increases" left in their mouth. Isn't this clearly telling you the engine has stalled? Plus, with Kioxia's price increases sharply dropping and the consumer side basically unable to sell, the fundamental support at the base has already collapsed.
Even institutions like Goldman Sachs and Fuxing are continuously lowering their target prices; big money has long started to revalue. So don't think this is the so-called "golden pit"; the monthly level pullback has just begun, and the most disgusting, most exhausting slow decline is still ahead. $BTC dropped to 77,000, but it’s not because someone is dumping
BlackRock’s $BTC fund had a single-day outflow of $405 million.
More than all ETFs in the US combined.
Where did this money come from:
It’s not retail investors running, it’s institutions rebalancing.
One product alone had such a large outflow, indicating sell orders are concentrated in a few accounts.
How is this number calculated:
Long positions near 76,800 were liquidated.
When the price drops there, the system automatically sells.
Sell orders push the price down further, triggering the next batch to be sold.
In the previous cycle, before the election, there was also a 20% to 50% pullback.
Now the pullback is 39%, within that range.
But this time, what’s being sold are ETF shares, not spot.
ETF redemptions require converting back to $BTC before selling.
This step puts additional downward pressure on the price.
On-chain data shows this movement of assets.
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 $BTC The phrase "carry forward losses within three years" made me pause even more than the delay. When I last followed policy news, that familiar feeling of first focusing on the grace period and then finding reasons for the market to rally came back. But this time, I care more about whether losses can be recognized by the tax system. Currently, the South Korean government plans to postpone the capital gains tax and is negotiating legislation with the National Assembly; loss carryforward is still just a research direction.
I think this detail carries more weight for ordinary users who hold assets across years and experience volatile gains and losses than simply delaying taxation. Profits and losses in the crypto space don’t neatly align with the calendar: if losses from the previous year cannot offset gains in the following year, then the account may not have truly broken even but could still incur tax obligations first. My judgment is that allowing carryforward can ease this mismatch, but there are still limitations on how long it can cover.
This also makes me feel that, compared to the familiar "slightly looser policy, slightly hotter sentiment" from the last round, this time it feels more like a discussion about the long-term operational rules of the industry. Delays are easily taken as short-term sentiment fuel, but how losses are handled relates to the actual costs borne by users—these two things cannot be mixed.
So I prefer to see it as a step forward in institutional discussion rather than a way to keep the market rally going. Next, I will watch whether the research direction can enter the amendment; I’m not in a hurry to treat the "plan" as an already implemented benefit. #BTC enters JPMorgan's long-term forecast, institutional allocation remains cautious $BTC $ETH BTC entering JPMorgan's long-term forecast, institutional allocation remains cautious—this sentence sounds contradictory but precisely reflects the current institutional narrative. Grayscale research head Zach Pandl pointed out that JPMorgan Asset Management, in its 2027 "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions," for the first time outlined a return range for Bitcoin: a benchmark compound annual return of about 10% over the next decade, with an annualized volatility of about 55%. In the same framework, the assumption for US large-cap stocks is about 7.5%, gold about 5.5%, so BTC's benchmark expectation is higher; the estimated correlation with US stocks is about 0.33, providing some diversification effect under normal circumstances. However, JPMorgan still excludes BTC from the core covariance matrix for solid reasons: volatility is too high, correlation is unstable, and it is "too early" to consider it a diversification tool in a balanced portfolio. The report also provides scenario differences: optimistic annualized return about 16.6%, pessimistic about -11.2%, with terminal values possibly differing by an order of magnitude. In valuation weighting, money supply and gold substitutes account for about 95%, while network adoption only about 5%—institutions are more concerned with the "currency and store of value" narrative rather than the on-chain application story. The implication for the crypto market is straightforward: being included in the long-term assumptions is a step of institutional recognition; exclusion from the core matrix indicates that long-term funds like pensions and insurance still find it difficult to enter on a large scale. Binance currently reports BTC around $80,600, up about 2.7% in 24 hours; short-term price can follow sentiment, but mid-term valuation anchors still depend on whether more asset managers will move from " Hyperliquid's earning ability has become somewhat frightening.
In the first 10 months of this year, it has already earned $557 million, and its annualized revenue for the past three months has directly exceeded $800 million. What does this mean? Its revenue in the last 30 days is about 1.6 times that of Pump.fun, 13 times that of Aave, and 15 times that of GMX. If compared to the traditional financial market, Nasdaq's Market Services net income for 2025 is about $1.2 billion, and Hyperliquid, based on a simple annualization of the first 10 months, already accounts for 56% of that.
An on-chain perpetual contract platform has already reached the business scale of a mid-sized fintech company.BCH has recently shown a certain strength, mainly driven by the rotation logic among established POW assets. After BTC warms up, some funds look for targets within the same sector that have high recognition and greater elasticity, and BCH often comes into view. Its advantage lies in its historical reputation and the ongoing payment narrative, but the sustainability of its market depends more on incremental capital rather than simply following BTC. If trading volume remains active, the market may continue to trade on catch-up expectations; if volume quickly declines, the short-term heat will also drop rapidly. $BCH$FET
AI and blockchain are attracting attention from two rapidly developing industries, but combining them does not automatically create economic value. Fetch.ai's proposition around autonomous agents and decentralized AI infrastructure raises an important question: can these technologies generate meaningful demand for their services? Real applications, developer participation, and sustainable token utility will be more convincing than AI-related market narratives.With the new Congress officially taking office in January 2027, investigations into the Trump family's crypto business are expected to begin as early as February 2027. Before that, the market will preemptively trade this "political negative," and WLFI and Trump-related tokens (such as $TRUMP ) will face significant emotional selling pressure.
Long-term uncertainty: Although Trump can still use his veto power to counter Democratic legislation, ongoing congressional hearings, document subpoenas, and media exposure are enough to cause irreversible damage to the credibility of his business empire. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC $ETH $DOGE
Dogecoin has something many newer projects struggle to build: strong brand recognition and an established community. But popularity alone cannot guarantee sustainable demand. Its longer-term utility depends partly on whether payment adoption expands beyond speculation and social-media attention. The interesting question is whether DOGE can turn cultural relevance into consistent economic activity.
3. $LTCThis round for DOGE is more like a typical sentiment recovery rally. After mainstream coins warm up, funds start to look for highly recognizable resilient targets, and DOGE naturally gets noticed. Its advantage lies in its large community size and low barrier to dissemination, making it easy to amplify discussion when the market heats up; but precisely because of this, short-term trends often depend more on overall market sentiment and capital rotation rather than on on-chain fundamentals. The key observation is whether trading volume can continue to expand. If it only follows the market rebound, it may still return to consolidation later. $DOGE#CircleQ3USDCVolumeUp49%
Circle's Q3 revenue rose 17% to $865M, but ARC token sales contributed $181.8M—masking weaker underlying performance.
USDC volume reportedly jumped 49%.
📉 Ex-ARC revenue fell ~8%, while reserve income declined 8% to $658M.
Market impact: Lower interest rates could pressure reserve income, while stronger USDC adoption could offset that weakness. The Binance hack also adds regulatory scrutiny around stablecoin controls.
$CRCL $xCRCL The new members of Congress haven't even taken office yet, but the reckoning has already begun: $WLFI and $TRUMP need to repay debts, and $BNB might even be involved.
Garcia, expected to take office as the House Oversight Committee chair in January next year, has already warned Trump's family to "go hire lawyers"; Warren, likely to take over the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly publicly called WLFI transactions corrupt.
The main issue is that WLFI and TRUMP are indeed not clean:
1. The UAE invested $500 million to buy WLFI shares, with the money flowing directly to Trump's family. Subsequently, the U.S. government approved the sale of advanced AI chips to the UAE.
2. Reports indicate that Trump's family profited billions of dollars from tokens like TRUMP and WLFI.
Therefore, WLFI dropped nearly 10% yesterday, with no volume or support—a typical death trend. TRUMP fell even more, by 20%, showing no rebound ability, with even whales opening large short positions.
Because of close cooperation with USD1 next door and CZ receiving a pardon, BNB might also be implicated.
Fortunately, BNB has a large market cap and strong fundamentals, so it’s not afraid of this minor negative news.
BNB is holding above the 200-day moving average at 700u, with support around 708. The RSI is about 55, neutral to slightly strong. The 730–760 range is a resistance zone, with high-level box consolidation and relatively strong resistance to market downturns.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
After the Democratic Party won control of both houses of Congress in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, the AI industry faces short-term headwinds with mixed long-term impacts. Cryptocurrencies are also likely to face short-term pressure, but Bitcoin's resilience is expected to be stronger than Ethereum and other altcoins.
Main impacts:
Stricter AI regulation: Data privacy, copyright, and model security regulations may tighten, increasing compliance costs for tech companies.
Pressure on data center expansion: Electricity prices, energy consumption, and environmental reviews may become stricter, putting pressure on the high-speed optical module, server, and data center construction supply chains.
NVIDIA, AMD, AAOI: Short-term valuations may be under pressure, but AI computing demand will not disappear immediately due to election results.
Nuclear energy companies (OKLO): Stricter data center approvals may slow nuclear power project commercialization, but clean energy support policies could also bring opportunities.
Cryptocurrency legislation: The previously stalled CLARITY Act may face renegotiation, with Democrats more likely to emphasize consumer protection, conflicts of interest, and financial regulation.
Short-term headwinds for high-growth stocks like AAOI and OKLO, with relatively limited impact on leaders like NVIDIA. On November 4, U.S. stocks overall actually rose, while some data center stocks declined.
The key is Democratic control of Congress, but Trump still holds presidential veto power, so AI regulations may not be implemented quickly. CryptoBoost founder says Bitcoin bear market has lasted 396 days
According to ChainCatcher, the founder of CryptoBoost posted that the current $BTC bear market began on October 6, 2025, at the historical peak, and has lasted 396 days as of the time of posting, slightly exceeding the average 391 days needed to bottom out since the 2014 bear market. In terms of historical retracement magnitude, the 2014 bear market saw a maximum drop of about 86%, 2018 about 84%, 2022 about 77%, while the current retracement is about 53%, relatively mild. $ETH $ZEC
He stated that with the increase of spot ETFs, enterprises, and institutional participants such as funds, the market's position structure may become more stable, thereby reducing the extent of declines. BTC whales have been continuously accumulating since July. However, the cycle time reaching the historical average does not mean the bear market is over; BTC still needs to retake and maintain above the $80,000 to $82,000 range to further confirm the market trend. He also cited recent market changes such as the decline in US tech stocks and semiconductor sectors, capital shifting to bank stocks, the Dow Jones rising after the US midterm elections, and falling oil prices as context, suggesting that Wall Street's capital flow is currently unclear, and BTC may be at the tail end of the bear market cycle.On November 5th, gold surged sharply, with spot gold breaking through $4130/oz and the main contract of Shanghai gold surpassing 880 CNY/g. The core trigger was not a Fed pivot, but the clarity of the US midterm election results: the Democrats took control of both the House and Senate. The market expects a "divided government" to limit fiscal expansion, causing the US dollar index and Treasury yields to fall simultaneously, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold; oil prices also plunged, easing energy inflation pressure, temporarily loosening the "inflation–tightening" chain weighing on gold.
Fortunately, the underlying support remains: in Q3, global central banks net purchased 321 tons of gold, a 42% year-on-year increase, with the People's Bank of China increasing holdings for the eighth consecutive quarter; gold ETF holdings rose to a historic high of 4256 tons. After the sharp drop, physical buying absorbed the sell-off, providing short-term funds room to enter.
However, Jin Cheng reminds that this looks more like an emotional recovery after a sharp drop, not a trend reversal; the probability of a rate hike in December remains about 80%, Treasury yields have fallen but remain high, and the suppression of gold by real interest rates has not been systemically lifted. The next key event is Friday's nonfarm payrolls: weak data would continue the rebound, strong data might cause the event-driven gains to be given back #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ It currently feels more like digestion after an airstrike. Yesterday, the ETF finally turned positive, with a net inflow of about 75 million — FBTC is absorbing aggressively, while IBIT is still selling; don't mistake this for institutions buying wildly across the board. Money is starting to flow back, risk sentiment has eased a bit, and the price of $BTC is hovering around 80,000 near those two daily moving averages. It doesn't feel like a bottoming process; after the squeeze, someone is absorbing and gathering strength. The mid-to-long term is very clear: buy the dip!!!The market $BTC is rising, while $TRUMP has led the decline for two consecutive days. Coinglass reports 1.26, down 16.3% in 24 hours, down 73.7% since the beginning of the year, and 98% off its all-time high. According to Seoul Economic Daily, it and WLFI are the two worst performers in the top 100, with the political meme sector shrinking 16% in one day.
The reason for the sell-off is straightforward. The Democrats took control of both chambers, and Robert Garcia, expected to serve as chairman of the House Oversight Committee, has threatened to investigate the "Trump crime family," advising them to "hire good lawyers." However, the new Congress won't convene until January, and legislation still has to pass presidential vetoes, so the current sell-off is based on expectations.
Derivatives are much hotter than spot. Contracts traded $1.04 billion in one day, while spot is only $170 million, with open interest at $168 million, nearly half of the market cap of $353 million. Binance accounts have a long-short ratio of 1.41, OKX is as high as 2.29, and the more it falls, the more people buy the dip. Liquidations in 24 hours reached $6.33 million, with longs accounting for $5.01 million; those bottom-fishing have already taken a hit.
Supply is also heavy. 73% has been unlocked, but only 282 million are circulating, with the majority still held in team wallets. About 900,000 tokens are expiring today.
What this coin lacks is not good news, but bulls giving up. The long-short ratio dropping back near 1 and open interest shrinking means the new low of 1.22 might be the bottom; if the price goes down but open interest rises, it means some are still catching the falling knife, so another round of long liquidation is not surprising. Only by climbing back above 1.49 will the election shock be considered digested. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The snapback in US equity futures is doing the heavy lifting across digital assets, but the move looks more like a pressure release than a new regime. Nasdaq futures swung from a loss of more than 2% into positive territory, and S&P futures clawed back a 1.4% decline. That rapid V-shaped repair pulled risk appetite back from the ledge and gave crypto an external tailwind it did not have hours earlier. $BTC is holding above its four-hour Bollinger mid-band at 78131. The immediate floor sits at 77@八佰哥爱理财 Recently, this blogger doing SOXL has become very popular, and many fans have come to ask me if he is really reliable?
Let's not talk about anything else first; let's understand the details in the two pictures:
He is trading 10x leveraged SOXL perpetual contracts, not the US stock 3x leveraged SOXL ETF. These two are completely different products with vastly different risks.
The original US SOXL is a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF that resets leverage daily; whereas the crypto SOXL perpetual contract is a contract with 10x leverage and has a liquidation mechanism.
He is currently showing screenshots of unrealized profits, which look very attractive, and his goal is to earn 1 million USDT.
But everyone must remember one thing:
Unrealized profits in contracts do not equal realized gains. Unrealized profits are just numbers on paper; if the market quickly reverses and crashes, 10x leverage can wipe out all profits in minutes, or even cause liquidation.
He keeps shouting long on semiconductors, only showing profitable trades, and rarely talks about the corresponding risks behind them.
I'm not saying he definitely has problems, but as ordinary retail investors, we must have the ability to discern:
If someone only shows profits, exaggerates return expectations, and rarely fully discloses risks like liquidation, drawdowns, and leverage decay, you must be extra cautious.
SOXL itself is extremely volatile, and adding 10x leverage leaves very little room for error.
It's fine to speculate on a rebound, but don't just blindly follow others shouting long.
Think carefully about your stop loss and position size, and whether you can bear the losses—that is the most important.I've never quite understood: a chain run by an exchange itself has only $1.07 billion locked, so how does the cumulative trading volume reach $120.46 billion? Later I realized these two are fundamentally different. TVL is the money lying inside, while trading volume counts how many times the money circulates. Robinhood users buy stocks without mining; the money comes in, circulates once, then leaves, so the pool is shallow but the turnover is fierce. Uniswap running $100 billion in 125 days follows the same logic. What really settles is lending; $MORPHO alone has $582 million, accounting for half a chain. $UNI earns from transaction fees, $MORPHO earns from interest—two different lifelines.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
Asian Stock Market Breakdown (November 5, 2026): KOSPI Circuit Breaks, Hong Kong Stocks Surge, A-Share Stocks Celebrate?
Today in Asia, on the surface, markets seem to be going their separate ways, but underneath, they share the same thread: the AI hardware regulation sword is hanging overhead, but each market is digesting it differently.
KOSPI is the most honest, just lying flat.
KOSPI closed down 5.28% at 5383.80, with foreign investors net selling 3.42 trillion KRW in a single day. Samsung fell 7.57%, SK Hynix dropped 9.46%, triggering circuit breakers in both major markets.
But the money hasn't fled; entertainment and culture rose 4.7%, IT services up 4.5%, biotech collectively surged, Samsung Epis up 14%, SK Biopharmaceuticals up 12%. The funds pulled out from AI hardware flowed into defensive and storytelling sectors.
Hong Kong stocks took a different path: the index violently recovered, but southbound funds are running out.
The Hang Seng Index closed up 3.67% at 24796.98, Hang Seng Tech surged 5.55%, Alibaba up 8.45%, Tencent up 7.17%. Strangely, southbound net selling was about HKD 20 billion throughout the day, completely diverging from the index's strong rise and capital outflow.
A-shares are the liveliest, but the index is the most deceptive.
The Shanghai Composite Index only rose 0.10%, yet 4869 stocks in the entire market advanced, no limit-down stocks, with an 87% gain rate. Photovoltaic equipment surged 6.23% hitting the limit-up wave, precious metals up 5.19%, semiconductor main forces net inflow of 5.656 billion still ranked first, while communication equipment, oil & gas, and coal sectors were drained.An exchange's own public blockchain has only $1.07 billion locked in, yet the cumulative DEX trading volume has reached $120.46 billion. When these two numbers are placed side by side, many people's first reaction is that there must be a calculation error. Actually, they represent different things: TVL is the money left on the chain, while trading volume is how many times the money has circulated.
The mainnet has been online for 125 days, and Uniswap alone has processed $100 billion, accounting for over 80% of the entire chain. The structure is fragile, with traffic concentrated at a single entry point. $UNI earns fees, not loyalty. Users come to trade stock tokens, then leave after exchanging; the chain is just a channel.
What truly stays are loans. Top locked assets: Morpho $582 million, Uniswap $280 million, Lighter $112 million. $MORPHO alone accounts for more than half of the locked funds. In the phase without incentives, only scenarios with real interest can retain funds.
The official side is still adding fuel. Together with Arbitrum, they have set up a $1.8 million funding pool, a 12-week mentorship program, with a maximum of $100,000 per project, ending December 6. $ARB here is not a speculation object but a dependency of the settlement layer.
Tokenized US stocks are the real variable: the official statement says Stock Tokens are tokenized debt securities, not open to US residents, and also restricted in Canada, the UK, and Switzerland. The core assets supporting $120 billion are in a no-go zone in half of the mainstream markets.Did Team Trung sell Bitcoin after losing in the US midterm elections?
Did Trump's team sell Bitcoin because they feared investigations from the Democrats controlling the House and Senate?
An hour ago, a wallet associated with Team Trung Media transferred 4,200 Bitcoins to an exchange, worth about $350 million.
Two years ago, Trump had many supporters, but now, after two years of various troubles, many no longer like him. $BTC BitMart has been shut down since August, but it continues to be targeted by hackers. This time, there are suspicions that it is related to the Mercado Bitcoin collapse, which resulted in nearly $49 million in Bitcoin losses!
On November 3rd, founder Sheldon Xia confirmed that the exchange was hacked. Bitquery found that about $391,000 flowed from wallets associated with BitMart to an address also involved in the Mercado Bitcoin hack. $BTC
What’s even more concerning is that Sheldon himself admitted the security team is severely understaffed. Are these two exchanges targets of the same hacker group, or is it just a coincidence? What do you think?$FIL Recently, the US stock market's soxl and storage-related sectors have been bleeding heavily, but last night, major cloud service providers like Microsoft surged? Why? Because after the Democrats took control of both chambers, it will no longer be so easy to get approval for new data center construction. So the existing large service providers have become highly valuable, essentially holding a license. Similarly, fil's existing computing power and storage are aggressively seizing the opportunity to break through. 🈶 More people using it?$SNDK Looking at SanDisk (SNDK) on the screen, I gasped sharply. This is not a mere pullback; it's like being rushed straight into the ICU. As I just lamented: "Falling to this level is no longer just a valuation kill."
[Technical Aspect: Losing the 1000 mark, weak oscillation]
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the price has plummeted from 1155, crashing through the 1000 integer barrier like a waterfall, now barely clinging around 1013. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment, pressing down like Mount Tai. Although the MACD formed a golden cross below the zero line, its strength is very weak, not even reaching the 1023 (MA60) resistance above. This is purely a dead cat bounce after an oversell. If it breaks below 990.8, it’s an abyss.
[Product Cycle: AI halo fading and cycle peaking]
SanDisk is a pure NAND storage manufacturer. Recently, expectations were fully boosted by AI computing power demand, but the earnings per share (EPS) beating expectations turned into a "death sentence" upon release. The core issue lies in the product cycle: Kioxia warned early that NAND price hikes have sharply cooled (dropping from 70% to 25%), with weak demand compounded by inventory pressure, indicating the storage cycle bottom is far from reached.
[Data Game: Retail investors crazily catching falling knives]
Switching to chart 2, I felt a chill down my spine. Bullish accounts are as high as 90.22%, with a long-short ratio of 9.22! Despite the price falling like this, retail investors are blindly bottom-fishing. In behavioral finance, this is called an extreme herd effect. The market manipulators see this 90% opposing side; they will never let the price rise without completely washing them out and driving them to despair. #US Midterm Elections: Democrats Gain Control of Both Houses of Congress
Senate about 54 seats, flipped 7 Republican seats: Texas Talarico 59.2% over Paxton, Ohio Brown 48.6% narrowly defeated Husted, Maine Jackson ended Collins, plus North Carolina Cooper, South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa; Michigan El-Sayed held. House of Representatives already locked in over 219 seats, passing the 218 threshold.
The only person the crypto world really needs to watch: Warren takes over as Chair of the Senate Banking Committee. TD Cowen's judgment is that this is the worst for crypto — CLARITY will likely be delayed for two years, with hearings and subpoenas becoming routine. Ironically, the crypto sector spent $176 million this round, including $30 million in Ohio trying to block Brown, but Brown still won and may even become Chair of the Agriculture Committee.
No need to be entirely pessimistic: the GENIUS stablecoin law remains unaffected and will take effect as scheduled on January 18 next year; the SEC, CFTC, and veto power remain in Trump's hands until 2029; CLARITY still has about a 60-day lame-duck window, and if delayed until January 3 next year, it will become void.
$BTC 80620, 24h +3.3%, on election night it briefly dropped below 76,000 then pulled back above 80,000. I think I know why Hang Seng Tech has been sluggish.
You can tell just from the Wuzhen Internet Conference, whether it's the companies or the conference itself, it's like a small-town New Year celebration, getting worse year by year.
Back in 2017, what was everyone watching? It was "Dongxing Dinner Party."
At the dinner table, 16 people basically represented the top internet tycoons and investment giants in China at the time. Everyone gathered, chatting and laughing.
What do we see in 2026? Internet celebrities and actors representing the scene.
Does this have anything to do with the internet? If live-streaming sales count, okay, then maybe a little.
But compared to the Dongxing Dinner Party, can these be considered figures of the same caliber?
As for those figures back then, their vigor is long gone.
Policy pressure, industry competition, sluggish consumption—what kind of meal is that? Who has the mood to eat?
Tencent, Kuaishou, Meituan, I'm talking to you.
When there are no tigers in the mountain, monkeys become kings. If the big shots don't come to the table, isn't it just little rascals causing trouble?
So, now you know why Hang Seng Tech isn't doing well, right? Haha.Circle Earnings Report: Revenue Surges, Profit Takes a Breather, How Long Can the $182 Million "Extra Income" Last?
After Circle's Q3 release, the stock rose 2.77% pre-market. Revenue hit $865 million, up 17% year-over-year, which looks impressive on the surface. But a closer look reveals some hidden issues beneath the sweet coating.
The highlight is the core business: USDC on-chain transaction volume soared 49% year-over-year, indicating real expansion in stablecoin payment and usage scenarios.
The problem lies in profits: net profit only increased 5%, lagging behind revenue growth; more critically, reserve income was dragged down by falling U.S. Treasury yields, dropping 8% year-over-year to $658 million. The engine of earning passive interest is slowing down.
So what drove the revenue beat? The Arc blockchain network token pre-sale contributed a one-time $182 million, essentially a booster shot for the earnings report. The market is currently focused only on the "revenue beat," but tends to overlook the sustainability of this incremental income.
Short-term chasing of highs should beware of pullbacks after the positive news is priced in. For $CRCL $xCRCL, what really matters going forward is whether USDC trading activity can take over and whether reserve income can stop declining. #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% What can push $ETH up if it doesn't break 2450? I shorted at 2424, and my old short at 2231 is about to be freed from loss.
The 2450 line has been pressing down all day; four attempts to surge were all pushed back, with volume weakening each time. Is this a breakout? It's a bull trap to unload. Your short entry at 2424 is aggressive, almost stepping on the MA7, but the comfortable one is the old position at 2231—held for so long, finally seeing the dawn of relief. Don't rush to close it; this downward space isn't finished yet.
RSI stuck at 50.3, neither up nor down, looks neutral but actually the bulls are out of strength. The upper Bollinger band at 2467 is the ceiling area. The funding rate at 0.0095% shows bulls are still paying protection fees; no one wants to actively push the price up. This grinding top structure of ETH will likely retest the MA25 support at 2398, or even probe down to the Bollinger middle band at 2366.
My strategy: hold the short at 2424 firmly, set stop loss above 2460 without hesitation; reduce half of the old position at 2231 near 2310 to take profit, and see if the rest can reach 2280. Anyone chasing longs now is just carrying the shorts. Before 2450 breaks, any rebound is an opportunity to add shorts. Yi Lihua said that $BTC needs to strongly break through 82,600 to have a second main upward wave.
Don't look that far ahead yet; there's a closer gate ahead: 81,944.
On October 30, the day Binance was hacked, Bitcoin touched 81,944 at midnight, then dropped to 76,472 ten hours later. Starting from October 23, in 13 days it surged above 81,780 on 5 days, reaching a high of 82,048, but never closed above it on any day.
Now at 80,500, it is riding right on the 4-hour EMA200 (80,475). From midnight until now, 12 hours, it has only fluctuated between 79,903 and 80,941, with the 4-hour volume shrinking candle by candle.
On Hyperliquid, that 40x back-and-forth 0x4b62 went long at 7:25 this morning, closed the position at 10-something making $39,700 profit, then at 10:26 reversed to short 67.9 coins at 80,704.
His new liquidation price: 81,943.8.
That peak on October 30: 81,944.4.
His account was $408,000 24 hours ago, now $202,000.Rushed up to 81,190 this morning, now at 80,300.
700 points off, didn't touch the 50-day moving average (81,933).
This is the first real resistance encountered in this rebound. Previously, from 76,664 upwards, there was hardly any resistance because short squeezes don't need a reason. But above the 50-day moving average is the cost zone for those who entered in the last two months, where there is real selling pressure.
Also, a figure released this morning: ADP private employment 86,000, expected 75,000.
Employment is stronger than expected. If tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are similar, the expectation for a December rate hike will be firmer.
The market is now betting on a December rate hike — this is a stone on top of the rebound.
Another risk few mention: Democratic control of both houses is not friendly to crypto. They were the ones blocking the CLARITY Act before, and now they call the shots.
So my view remains unchanged: this is a correction, not a reversal.
I won't add positions before tomorrow's non-farm payrolls.
How much of your position do you have now?
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Trump loses both chambers, crypto market first falls then rises? Understand it all in one article (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Conclusion first: Short-term sentiment is bearish, mid-term is more likely neutral and volatile; "fall first then rise" seems more like a rhythm, not a one-sided trend, so don't rush to bet on a big surge or crash (￣▽￣)~*
Trump was originally crypto-friendly, and the market expected the Republican-controlled Congress to push forward relaxed regulations like the "Clear Act." Now that the Democrats have taken both the House and Senate, the legislative direction is stricter, but Trump still has presidential veto power, so both sides will check each other.
Scenario 1: As the news just landed, funds worry that Democrats will tighten regulations, restrict stablecoins, and strengthen SEC enforcement, so BTC and ETH might first experience an emotional sell-off with increased volatility (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Scenario 2: The more likely mainstream scenario in the next 1–4 weeks — Democrats can propose strict bills but find it hard to gather two-thirds votes to override vetoes; Trump wants to push relaxed legislation, but Democratic Congress resists, leading to back-and-forth tugging and volatile game.
Scenario 3: (Low probability long-term path): The two parties remain deadlocked, new regulatory legislation stalls, SEC and other agencies may slow enforcement pace, the industry stays in a regulatory gray zone; after negative news is digested, if funds flow back into risk assets, the market could recover (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Reminder: The above is just a market review thought process, not any trading advice. Please view rationally and control risks~
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Does holding 10 types of cryptocurrencies mean your risk is diversified?
Not necessarily.
Different tokens may be affected by the same market sentiment, liquidity, and capital flows. Even in different sectors, they can face pressure simultaneously during a market downturn.
True diversification is not about increasing the number of coins, but understanding the sources of risk and the correlations within your overall portfolio.
Do you focus more on the number of coins or on risk correlation? $DOGE
Dogecoin demonstrates how powerful community recognition can become in crypto markets. Yet popularity and economic utility are two different things. DOGE benefits from broad familiarity and an established identity, but its market behavior remains sensitive to sentiment, speculation, and broader liquidity conditions. Its challenge is maintaining relevance without relying entirely on social momentum.#Nonfarm is coming, can the employment data strengthen the December rate hike expectations? STX up 15.2% on the 7th, where was it before the employment data
After the nonfarm announcement, where will the rate hike expectations go? I don't have evidence to answer that. $STX is now 0.3484 USDT, 24h +2.6%, today's performance is much weaker than its pace this week.
This surge didn't just start today; looking longer term, 7 days +15.2%.
The two extremes in 24h are 0.3661 USDT and 0.3365 USDT. The current price is in the lower middle of this range.
The UK 30-year government bond yield fell to 5.554%, a four-month low. This is a UK bond, not a US one, so I won't use this to infer December rate hikes.
Today $SOL 24h +2.9%, $HYPE 24h -2.9%. STX's gain today is closer to SOL's.
None of these numbers reflect rate hike expectations. After the employment figures land, I just want to see how much of that 7-day gain remains. A company that provides risk insurance for digital assets has brought banks into its list of shareholders. Soter Insure completed the second closing of its Series B round on November 5, with SC Ventures under Standard Chartered and Japan's SBI Group joining as strategic investors.
The timeline is worth straightening out. The first closing of this round took place in July, led by Galaxy, with participation from Coinbase Ventures. The initial bets came from crypto-native capital, and four months later, banks and Japanese financial groups followed, with early shareholder Token Bay Capital also increasing their stake.
Strategic investors do not mean financial investors. This money must pass internal compliance reviews and external regulatory checks in their respective markets. Passing scrutiny from two rounds of compliance teams means the product has been validated once.
The mechanism is not complicated. When platforms apply for licenses and serve institutional clients, they are often required to present risk mitigation and compensation arrangements, with insurance being a mandatory question. When $BTC and $ETH start entering institutional balance sheets, custodians don’t just want to hear "we are very safe," they want an insurable contract.
The real action is here: shifting from trading matching and proprietary trading toward custody, compliance, and insurance—areas that are not flashy but necessary. Platform businesses like $BNB also have to pass through this gate.
Here’s a point worth pondering: after insurance enters the scene, the boundary of responsibility shifts from "being hacked is an act of God" to a quantifiable contract. Who compensates and how much is written into the terms.$STRK
Scaling Ethereum is not simply about processing more transactions. Security assumptions, decentralization, developer experience, and economic sustainability all matter. Starknet uses zero-knowledge technology to approach this challenge. For STRK, an important consideration is whether growing technical capabilities can generate stronger ecosystem participation and meaningful demand for the network's resources.NFP could be the next major catalyst for crypto, but the market has more to digest than just employment numbers.
BTC has recovered above $80K after bouncing from $75.6K, while roughly $300M in short liquidations helped fuel the move. Still, miner pressure, Riot's BTC sales and regulatory uncertainty remain significant headwinds.
SOL has a stronger fundamental story.#Nonfarm Payrolls Approaching, Can Employment Data Strengthen December Rate Hike Expectations?
📌 Background Review
- September FOMC raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%
- October FOMC chose to pause (maintain rates unchanged), but 2 members dissented, advocating an immediate hike; after the meeting, several hawkish Fed officials stated that at least one or two more hikes are needed, as inflation stickiness has not disappeared
- Chair Powell did not commit in advance to a December hike, repeatedly emphasizing watching subsequent data
✅ Conditions to Trigger a 【December Rate Hike】
1. Core CPI month-over-month ≥0.3, inflation stickiness exceeds expectations (housing/service inflation remains high)
2. Nonfarm employment remains resilient, wage decline less than expected
3. Energy prices continue to rise, pushing overall inflation higher
✅ Conditions to Trigger a 【Hold Steady (No Hike)】
1. Core CPI clearly cools down (month-over-month consistently 0.2 or below)
2. Employment weakens significantly, unemployment rate rises, signs of economic slowdown
👉 If this set of data materializes, the Fed is very likely to continue pausing and not raise rates further $BTC $CL The boot has dropped! BTC back above 80,000: After the Democratic sweep, what is the market rising on and fearing? Yesterday we were still saying "hold your hands and wait for the boot to drop," and today the answer is here: In the U.S. midterm elections, the Democrats took back both the House and Senate (Senate expected 52 seats), clearing uncertainty overnight. BTC surged past $80,000 with volume, up nearly 5% in 24 hours, reaching an intraday high of 81,196; ETH was even stronger, +7% to over 2,400, SOL and XRP also rose more than 3%, and the fear and greed index jumped from 34 back to a neutral 50.
📌 Not only coins are rising: The Dow Jones +3.03%, marking the biggest gain in 19 months, Microsoft +6.7%, Amazon +6.1%, Apple +5%; the dollar fell to a two-month low, gold +3.29% closing at $4,060 (the largest single-day gain since mid-August), silver +5% reclaiming 52; most dramatically, crude oil plunged 9% (WTI closed at $88, a three-month low) — the market is betting that the power shift will accelerate the end of the US-Iran war. In short: the whole world is pricing in "divided government + de-escalation of war."
📌 But three risks remain unresolved: ① Regulatory change — Democrats previously blocked the CLARITY Act, adding uncertainty to crypto legislation and AI/data center regulation; AI concept stocks already fell last night in respect (Hut 8 -23%, CoreWeave -9%, Micron/SanDisk -7%); ② Miner sell-off — Riot sold 10,599 BTC in Q3 (79% of holdings) to pivot to AI, revealing mining profitability pressure; ③ Friday’s nonfarm payrolls + 81% probability of December rate hike — if employment again exceeds expectations, the rebound could be cut short by rate hike expectations. $TRUMP meme coin fell 17% against the trend, political premium is fading. Technical levels: BTC reclaimed the 20-day moving average (80,320), RSI back to 50.6 indicating balance between bulls and bears; above, the 50-day moving average at 82,064 is the real test, then 84,326 (upper Bollinger band)/86,699 (previous high); below, the 200-day moving average at 73,231 remains the long-term baseline. Holding above 82,000 means the rebound has upgraded from "emotional recovery" to "trend recovery."
In short: The election boot has dropped, but regulatory and nonfarm boots are still hanging. 80,000 is the emotional watershed, 82,000 is the ticket to the trend. Have you boarded this rebound? Do you think it can reach 86,000?
👇 Chat in the comments ⚠️ Personal views shared, not investment advice. Volatility is intense during this dense macro event period, please control your position size and set stop losses. #Bitcoin #BTC #MidtermElections #Ethereum #Gold #CrudeOil #MarketAnalysis #OKXSaudi Arabia wants to negotiate an end to the Yemen conflict, but the Houthi militia has set a $51 billion condition! The situation in the Middle East adds new uncertainties! ⚠️
On November 5, according to The Wall Street Journal, after the Houthi militia attacked Saudi Red Sea oil tankers and took control of key areas near the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, Saudi Arabia began actively reaching out to the Houthis, hoping to end hostilities through negotiations.
However, right at the start of talks, the other side threw out a staggering figure: $51 billion! Sources familiar with the negotiations revealed that the Houthis consider this sum as compensation for the losses caused by Saudi Arabia's years of airstrikes and prolonged blockade. The parties also discussed other amounts afterward, but the signal was clear: if Saudi Arabia wants to exit this conflict, it may have to pay tens of billions of dollars.
More complicated is that the Houthis not only want money but also demand Saudi Arabia formally recognize them as the rulers of Yemen. This means Saudi Arabia might have to accept an adversary closely linked to Iran and controlling areas near its southern border.
Currently, neither the Saudi government nor the Houthi leadership has responded, so the $51 billion and related negotiation terms remain media disclosures and have not been officially confirmed by either side.
In my opinion, the most noteworthy aspect of this matter is not just the astronomical $51 billion figure, but that Saudi Arabia is facing an increasingly realistic dilemma: continuing the fight comes at a cost, and stopping it may not be cheap either. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ ADP and ISM employment rebound, conflicting signals before nonfarm payrolls, December rate hike pricing to be verified
US October ADP private sector added 86,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations; ISM services employment index rose to 51.4, expanding for the second consecutive month, with some employment indicators improving. However, market expectations for October nonfarm payrolls remain around 60,000, unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, divergence between ADP and official nonfarm data is worth noting.
Logical analysis: Employment indicators warming theoretically support a December rate hike, but ADP and nonfarm have diverged multiple times historically, so ADP alone cannot set the tone. If November 6th nonfarm exceeds 60,000, December rate hike pricing may rebound from 70%, strengthening the dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing BTC; if nonfarm weakens or turns negative, rate hike expectations fall, giving risk assets a breather. ISM services employment expansion adds data uncertainty.
Trading strategy: No one-sided bets before nonfarm. If data is strong and BTC rises on low volume, prioritize reducing positions or lightly shorting; if weak and BTC surges with volume stabilizing at 77,000-78,000 resistance, consider short-term longs. 74,000-75,000 is support below. Core principle: ADP is a reference, nonfarm is the verification; expect volatile swings after data, control leverage, and set stop losses properly.🤯 The anti-crypto side won, but BTC bounced back to 80375
Midterm elections concluded, Democrats took both the House and Senate. Before the election, Coinbase CEO Armstrong said "the future of crypto depends on this," but went silent after. On the same day, Trump's DJT dropped 25%, with net assets shrinking by $168 million.
The market, however, completely ignored this: BTC 24h low 78001.77, high 81196.01, amplitude 4.10%, currently at 80375.75, up 2.83%; ETH pulled from 2303.50 to 2450.00, currently at 2418.26, up 4.94%.
Funds betting on politics missed out, while those betting on liquidity fully benefited from this move. Long-short account ratio is 1.3895, bulls account for 58.15%, funding rate 0.01% — bullish but not overheated.
The rebound is not driven by policy benefits, but by short covering after a deep drop. To hold above 80375, volume is key; otherwise, 81196 will be the ceiling for this wave. Don't mistake "rising" for "stable."
📊 Investment advice
• BTC — Bullish
Take Profit (TP): $86,800
Stop Loss (SL): $73,950
• ETH — Bullish
Take Profit (TP): $2,710
Stop Loss (SL): $2,128
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile, please DYOR, and bear the risks yourself. According to on-chain data from devsnightmare, the holding structure of $SLINGTOSHI (CA: F1LQvm5biTdEXPrHokxhkR7sDwQcBnA8VTEmD5Gdpump) shows a clear concentration characteristic. 📊 Core holding data: 🔹 Sniper wallets hold about 30.5%, team holdings about 4%. 🔹 Sling holds 46.6%, with addresses such as AestethicGoat, Oldmarlin26724, eencje, Senzo, and CuteCarrotTop among the main holders. 🔹 Bubblemaps shows a related wallet cluster occupies about 49.5%; CEX-related clusters account for 72%. 💰 Exchange-related wallet distribution (each wallet counted only once): • Binance: 14.2% • Coinbase: 10.4% • Robinhood: 9.9% • MoonPay: 9.3% • Crypto.com: 8% • Kraken: 7.9% • OKX: 2% 📈 Holder overview: Currently, the top 10 holders account for about 58.4% in total, with approximately 2,250 holding addresses, and an average holding value of about $315 per address. ⚠️ Market observation: High proportion of related$UNI Binance has resumed withdrawals
1. This means the biggest buying pressure from the recent theft has ended, so the support is gone, and the short-term strength is over. UNI will first fall back to a non-strong price level, then fluctuate with the market. It can be understood as a high-beta version of BTC, not suitable for swing trading anymore, but rather waiting for the next market overheating.
2. From a technical perspective, the short-term rebound demand is most likely also nearing its end. I sold some on the swings at 7.31 and 7.51. I estimate there’s a high chance I’ll buy back in. If I don’t, I’ll be happier because my core position hasn’t moved; my hedge trade is just treated as a cost. In the medium term, UNI is still undergoing a weekly-level correction.
3. After the exchange balance hit a new high and then fell back, it has started climbing again. The exact timing began rising from 10:30, indicating that this theft is directly related to UNI. There was a wave of funds that got scared, especially with withdrawals being closed, which led to a direct dump and exit. These pressures will show after withdrawals reopen.
4. In terms of price action, it can roughly be compared to a mini version of HYPE. After the frenzy, a rest is needed, resulting in a relatively independent short-term market.
I’ve received many thank-you messages and good news these past two days. I believe everyone has already felt the initial push of UNI, but this is just a small appetizer; the main upward wave hasn’t started yet! Why can backtesting perform well, but live trading may continue to lose money?
Historical data does not equal the future, and ideal fills do not equal real execution.
Fees, slippage, parameter overfitting, and changes in market conditions can all erode strategy returns.
When evaluating a strategy, don’t just look at the profit curve; also consider out-of-sample performance, maximum drawdown, and results after costs.
Which metric do you value the most? #索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引
"Sony's Profit Surges 45%, Driven by Gaming and Film"
While many thought consumer electronics were struggling, Sony's Q2 earnings report delivered a knockout.
Quarterly revenue hit ¥3.43 trillion, operating profit reached ¥622.3 billion, a year-on-year surge of 45.1%, both surpassing market expectations.
Fueled by gaming and film, Sony raised its full-year operating profit guidance to ¥1.87 trillion, with net profit forecast boosted to ¥1.33 trillion.
Next quarter will depend on holiday season consumer spending. $BTC