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My Bitcoin trading strategy for November 5th. $BTC Yesterday, influenced by several market news events, Bitcoin's price surged sharply from around 76k to 81k, and the price is now starting to pull back to around 80k. On the H1 timeframe, the price remains above the support zone of 79,700 to 79,900. This is also a potential liquidity area where I expected the price to first break through this zone and then rebound to the 82,000 area. My trading strategy I tend to wait for Bitcoin to pull back to the 79.7k-79.9k range. If this support zone holds and a buying pressure confirmation signal appears on the H1 chart, I expect Bitcoin to continue rising to test the 81.7k-82k area. Conversely, if the price does not pull back but instead rises directly to the 82k area, I will observe the price reaction in that area and look for shorting opportunities. This is just my personal opinion and not investment advice. Do you think Bitcoin will pull back to the 79.7k to 79.9k range today? Please share your thoughts!The Board of Directors of $NEAR Protocol has approved a proposal to reduce the maximum annual token issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months.That feeling last night while watching the market, the "huh, why are they moving together" sensation, was more awakening than any news alert ✨ When BTC and ETH both lift their heads simultaneously, is your first reaction to chase, or to first see who's buying? What I see is this: after the US midterm election results landed, with the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress, the market first traded on "political noise clearing" rather than the independent narrative of any single coin. $BTC and $ETH strengthening in sync indicates a marginal warming of risk appetite, with capital preference shifting slightly from pure defense toward "mainstream assets with consensus," but it's not yet a full-on offensive. Here's a detail that's easy to overlook: the election result itself isn't crypto-positive; what's truly priced in is the "reduction of uncertainty." When bad news no longer drives new lows, selling pressure thins, and prices become more sensitive to marginal buying. Legacy privacy coins like $ZEC moving along are more like high beta sentiment spillover rather than fundamental revaluation—they have high elasticity, but sustainability depends on whether the mainstream coins can maintain their pace. On the bullish path: if BTC can hold the range after this rise, ETH follows without divergence, and altcoins' catch-up will shift from "individual pulses" to "rotational probing," capital preference will gradually move from defensive allocation to willingness to bear some volatility. Potential risks: the midterm election is only a short-term catalyst; there will be secondary pricing from policy implementation and macro data later; if BTC's volume can't keep up after the surge and ETH leads the fall back, this synchronous rise will easily be read as "sentiment repair" rather than "trend reversal," making chasing the highs risky Solana (SOL) Short Prediction * Current Price: ~$SOL 95.29 * Trend: Bearish / Downward * Support Level: $SOL 90.00 * Resistance Level: $96.00 – $98.00 Outlook: Solana (SOL) is testing key support near $90–$95. If support holds, expect a short-term bounce toward $96–$98. If it breaks below $90, further downside is likely. 直接归因：原因是英国央行鹰派加息，加密市场自身并没有出现坏消息。 一、时间线（15 分钟 K 线精确对应） 09:00–19:00高点逐级下移 80,918→80,726→80,409阴跌，这是前提 20:00英国央行宣布加息 25bp 至 4.00%（8–1 票，Mann 要求加 50bp）反应温和，从 80,390 跌至 80,143 20:30贝利发布会 + 货币政策报告：通胀峰值上调至 2027Q2 的 4.9%；“除非伊朗战争解决，否则这不太可能是最后一次加息”成交量突然放大至 358 BTC，是基准的 5 倍，直接跌破 79,638 20:45最低 79,520现价 79,679 注：20:00 的决定本身“符合预期”，已经被市场定价，所以第一波只跌了 250 美元。真正的杀跌出现在 20:30 的发布会——贝利把话说明白了：这是加息周期的开始，不是结束。 二、传导链条 英国央行 2023 年 8 月以来首次加息 + 明确还有后续 ↓ 油价反弹 +1.7%（WTI 从 86.65 回到 89.59，伊朗战争未解） ↓ 通胀预期上行 → 美元指数反弹 101.24 → 101Binance hackers continue to transfer tens of millions of dollars across multiple blockchains. This time, USDC was moved from $SOL to Ethereum! According to shared on-chain charts, about 38.76 million USDC was distributed to 168 Ethereum addresses through 443 CCTP transactions in less than 11 hours. It is worth noting that USDC is burned on Solana and then re-minted on Ethereum, rather than disappearing. As this currency keeps fragmenting and moving across different networks, can it still be as easily tracked as it is now?The key to tomorrow's non-farm payrolls is not whether they are "good or bad," but whether they fall within a moderate range that makes the Federal Reserve "neither worried about a recession nor eager to raise rates." Leading indicators like ADP point to this possibility, but the huge divergence in institutional forecasts (50,000 to 100,000) means that whichever end the data falls on, it could trigger greater short-term volatility than usual. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ $BTC Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow night, let's do the math for 100x leverage. In the nearly 13 releases, the average amplitude within 2 hours is 1.78%, which is 1.7 times that of the afternoon on the same day. With 100x leverage, a 1% swing causes liquidation—out of these 13 times, 10 had amplitude ≥1%. Is the direction right? 7 up, 6 down, half the time guessed correctly. Guessing the direction correctly is useless; guessing the wrong leverage is deadly. Not investment advice | Data: OKX 1H, first Friday approximate #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Celo ($CELO) 📲 Mobile-first financial tools could help more people access digital payments. Celo has focused on making blockchain services accessible through mobile devices and real-world payment use cases. Adoption depends on simple products and dependable infrastructure. Could mobile-friendly crypto services make digital finance more accessible worldwide?Whenever I see "verifiable," I want to add a column to my observation table, but after studying quantitative methods, I always ask one more question: How much does the verification itself cost? If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set it as: if the verification computation is feasible and the additional cost is acceptable, then increase the trustworthiness score, rather than directly adding points.🤖 Anthropic's new AI verification tool FlashProve can help verify model computations, but the GPU computation workload required for benchmarking is about 70 to 95 times that of ordinary inference. My judgment is: verification capability is meaningful, but cost is a hard barrier to implementation and cannot be directly regarded as a universal benefit for the AI sector. The advantage of this rule is that it turns "trustworthy" into a verifiable condition, but the loophole is that "acceptable" is hard to unify. If the cost of errors is high, I speculate users will be more willing to bear the verification cost; if it's just everyday Q&A, the extra computation may not be worthwhile. I will continue to observe whether verification overhead can be reduced and will not equate technical breakthroughs with large-scale adoption for now.Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000, and Ethereum retreated below $2,400. On the surface, this looks unsettling, but the drivers behind this decline are more about short-term sentiment and event shocks rather than a structural reversal. The triggers are concentrated in three areas: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked a sell-off in risk assets, pushing $BTC down to $79,146 at one point; expectations rose that the Democratic Party would control both houses after the U.S. midterm elections, raising market concerns about stricter crypto regulations; although the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates, two voting members advocated for hikes, and rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields pressured valuations of non-yielding assets. The combination of these three factors caused a cascade of leveraged long liquidations, but these are all reversible short-term disturbances. The conditions supporting an upward move have not disappeared. BlackRock controls 61% of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets, holding about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, and its position changes are based on client allocation needs rather than partisan agendas. Over 181 publicly listed companies collectively hold about 1.314 million Bitcoins, and sovereign wealth funds are continuously building exposure. CoinShares' head of research clearly pointed out that the Democratic victory factor is largely priced in, and with uncertainty reduced, there is room for a rebound. Regarding $ETH, the $2,100–$2,400 range is a repeatedly tested demand zone, and whale long positions have increased by about 368% since August, with large funds taking advantage of weakness to increase exposure. Short-term volatility is noise; institutional structural buying is the real signal. Avoid shorting and panic; waiting for pricing correction after sentiment releases is the more rational choice. The Bank of England has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, officially ending the easing cycle. For global markets, this is a clear signal of a monetary policy shift: the pound strengthens in the short term, but the room for imagination in dollar liquidity and risk appetite is compressed, with high-beta assets like crypto taking the brunt of the pressure. This is judged to be bearish for mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, representing an indirect transmission at the macro level, not targeting any single project. In practice, before and after data releases, BTC and ETH often follow the fluctuations of US stocks and the pound, with funds preferring to stay in stablecoins or wait for a pullback to buy in. Do not mistake the sharp drops and rebounds in the news for a trend reversal. Going forward, focus on two key points: whether UK inflation remains sticky, and whether the central bank’s statements can provide a clear path for further rate hikes. Source: BlockBeats Are you more concerned about the stickiness of UK inflation or the central bank’s subsequent statements on the rate hike path? Clearly emphasized this morning that it's not a bull rebound, and yet it dropped below 80,000 again? BTC gave a short position around 81,000-81,500, the market fell from 80,800 down to around 79,600, a 1,200 point drop. ETH simultaneously dropped 50 points. If it can't hold above 80,000, what bull market are we even talking about? BTC continues to look down towards 78,000. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $MU Retail investors really buy more as prices fall I'm increasingly understanding why most people lose money The more it falls, the more they bottom-fish; the more it falls, the more they hold their positions. In a one-sided downtrend, those going long outnumber shorts by several times. If the market doesn't harvest you, who else will it harvest? Seize less? Cutting in half and only topping up this little? Intel CEO Chen Liwu personally spent $9.71 million through a family trust on November 2, buying 150,000 shares of $INTC at an average price of $64.73. This is the second time this year he has spent his own money to buy. The August purchase was even worse, buying over 100,000 shares at $95, spending about $10 million. Now at just over $58, it's a nearly 40% unrealized loss. "Making Money Standing on the Foundation of AI" Recently, something quite popular on Twitter is using Codex combined with CAD to take orders for design work, earning two to three hundred a day, or even more. I haven't paid much attention. Many people see this and think, "Then I'll also start using Codex to take orders." I think that's not wrong; if you want to make some small money, you can definitely do it this way. But at the same time, I want to say a bit more: Have you noticed that the large models now are precisely replacing various low-end AI applications? Drawing, making posters—these demands can now be generated with one click. The recently popular Lobster bot, at that time, didn't quite understand what people were saying; it just knew it could help people work. Back then, the output was clumsy, deleting things it shouldn't have, and often crashing, basically playing itself to death. Later, with upgrades to Grok bot, Codex, and Claude, you rarely see anyone using Lobster anymore. Things that were impossible a few months ago can now be done. So, simply making AI applications, personally, I don't think it's particularly worthwhile. Because with the next model upgrade, you might be out of the picture. So what is worth doing? Think carefully: all the one-click generated stuff is consuming tokens behind the scenes, using tokens to replace human brain work, and then turning that into money DOGE old address revival, is it really a top bell? I see the saying "dormant address revival is a DOGE top signal"—the story is smooth, but the evidence is short. The years 2017, 2021, and 2025 are tied into one script, but the data supporting the same caliber mainly only applies to 2021. Using a few large transfers to make a cycle trailer, I don't buy it. The number of addresses not transferred for over three years does not equal the amount of unmoved coins, nor does it equal old players. Exchange aggregation, wallet key changes, and change outputs can all "wake up" old coins; lost and burned coins are also pretending to sleep, so it doesn't mean unlocking or exiting positions. Currently, there is no publicly unified standard giving the "proportion of dormant addresses over three years." What can be verified is that as of the end of September 2026, addresses not transferred for over ten years hold about 8.6% of DOGE; in 2013–2014, $DOGE moved about 140 million coins this year, about 181 million coins in the same period in 2025, and about 4.4 billion coins in 2021. There are sporadic revivals, but no revival wave yet. I treat it as a doorbell, not a top alarm. $DOGE continuous movement, rising proportion of young coins, and increased inflow to trading venues—only when these three things come together is it worth being cautious. A single anomaly might just be the dog turning over, not the cycle knocking.$PEPE is consolidating around $0.000005. On the surface, it looks like a "cooling down," but in reality, it exposes a more concerning structural issue: a single whale purchase of 4.508 billion tokens (about $2.25 million) did briefly push the price up, but once that buying pressure stopped, follow-up orders immediately dried up, and the price returned to its original level. This is not an isolated case but a market pattern that is spreading. Zooming out, the same script is playing out repeatedly across multiple tokens. $TRUMP hovers around $1.58, with no new funds entering on election day; $UNI has been stuck near $7 for too long, and although the protocol itself is profitable, buying interest never keeps up. These three situations point to the same conclusion: prices spike when an event happens, but once the event passes, no one steps in to support the price. 🔥 The key signal here is not the price itself but the lack of "absorbing power." The $2.25 million buy order failed to ignite a rally precisely because the market lacks not stories but incremental funds willing to add positions after the story. The sell-off triggered by the previous hack has just passed, and bottom-fishing funds chose to concentrate their buying in one go rather than building positions gradually, which was itself a probing move—pushing to see if anyone would follow. The result was no. This also explains why "cooling down" is more intriguing than "declining." A decline at least means some turnover, but failing to maintain temperature means the momentum driving the price up relies entirely on isolated buy orders; once that force withdraws, volume cannot sustain, and the price returns to the starting point. For $PEPE bulls to confirm a reversal, they needToday many people in the crypto circle are confused. Didn't they say the Republican Party lost both chambers? Why didn't the market fall but instead rose? Actually, this surge is a short squeeze recovery, not new money entering the market. Across the entire network, $936 million worth of positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $530 million, and $BTC shorts alone at $370 million; open interest contracts actually fell by 4.36%. No real new buying power came in; prices were pushed up by stop-loss orders. BTC returned to 81,000, up 3%; $ETH caught up with a 5.6% rise to 2,416, showing the greatest elasticity; $SOL only followed with 1.57% to 94.81, not even beating the market average. This ranking itself is a signal: funds are only repairing positions with high certainty. ETH benefited from liquidity replenishment premium, while SOL didn't even get a sip. Short-term trading ETH's elasticity is fine, but this is a defensive counterattack, not an all-out offensive. When the rebound hits resistance, reduce positions accordingly. Don't mistake short covering for a bull run to add leverage.81,608-79,900 is the short-term pivot, 79,000 is the pullback support, and 85,500 is the densest selling pressure zone above. ETF single-day 935 million, FBTC's solo hedging internal divergence indicates that the direction of the capital side has not truly reversed; 560 million reveals the "fuel" nature of this round of rally. Tonight's non-farm ** is the key catalyst to determine whether the rebound can upgrade from "passive adjustment" to "active repair." Before the data is released, respecting the resistance zone and waiting for confirmation is more prudent than chasing highs in the final stage of short covering. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ A quick news said ETH "fell below the $2400 mark," so I clicked in to check, and the drop was only 0.07%, with the current price at 2395.99. Just 4 dollars short, just a tiny bit less, and the mark would be considered broken. What kind of "fall below" is this? But the market really buys into this. Round numbers are everyone's default reference point; orders, stop losses, and alerts all cluster around 2400. Once the price dips in, a bunch of automatic actions trigger on their own. So don't take this kind of break as a signal; it doesn't even count as a direction.It's really weak. $HYPE previously had a big positive when cooperating with the NYSE to introduce perpetual contracts in the US, but because of Binance's move, most people started selling to take profits and close positions. Additionally, tomorrow is the unlock day, with about 15 million U tokens unlocking. Overall, the technical aspect is quite weak even when the market is surging.Today's breaking news is easy to misread: ETH is currently at $2395.99, breaking below the 2400 whole number level. Seeing the phrase "breaking below the level," many people's first reaction is that the trend is weakening and they should sell. But another number in the same news is — a 5-minute drop of 0.07%. This magnitude doesn't even count as a normal turnover. A real break caused by selling pressure would show a long bearish candle in five minutes, doubled volume, and buy orders being eaten up, not the price inching down just slightly below the level. This kind of movement isn't being smashed down; it means no one is pushing it up. So a more accurate judgment is: this time 2400 wasn't broken by the bears attacking, but because the bulls themselves stopped defending it. When a level is smashed down, the bulls are the injured party; when they let go on their own, the bulls just temporarily don't want to spend the cost to maintain it. The former requires caution for further decline, the latter just needs to wait and see if it wants to come back. The reason whole number levels repeatedly make the news isn't because 2400 is magical, but because a large number of orders, stop losses, and conditional orders pile up near whole numbers. When the price steps in, preset actions automatically execute, making the "break" seem more significant than the actual volume. This is also why $ETH often grinds near levels for a long time, while the real direction has nothing to do with that one break. What to watch next isn't whether it holds 2400, but whether there's volume when it pulls back to 2400: a low-volume climb back is just a test, and failing to hold on high volume is a direction change. Also keep an eye on $BTC; if the overall market doesn't give space, ETH can't create a trend on its own.BTC rebound realized, next key focus is $82,000! The long positions previously set around 77,300 have successfully turned from floating losses to floating profits, and the second limit order at 76,188 has also been smoothly executed. Looking back, the 76,188 order was indeed a bit risky. BTC dipped as low as around 75,690 at one point, and the market panic was obvious; no one could be sure if there was more room below. Fortunately, the positions were not heavily concentrated at once but were deployed in batches according to plan, which is why we now hold the initiative. Currently, BTC has retaken 80,800, reaching a high of 81,199. The 1-hour Bollinger middle band is at 78,993, with the upper band near 81,420. The short-term trend has clearly strengthened, but resistance is approaching above. Looking at macro news, the US midterm election results are in, with the Democrats taking both chambers. At the initial announcement, BTC briefly fell below 76,000, then staged a strong V-shaped reversal, breaking back above 81,000. This indicates the market is trading not only on the election results but also on the uncertainty of subsequent crypto regulatory policies. Short-term risk appetite has somewhat recovered, but the impact of policy still needs to be monitored. The first two long positions have already accumulated some profit; the focus now is not to blindly chase gains but to properly take profits and protect positions. It should be emphasized that the buys from 77,300 to 76,188 were all pre-planned, staggered limit orders, not #USJobsReportInFocus $BTC Mining company American Bitcoin Corp has increased its Bitcoin holdings again, accumulating more coins on its books. After reading this, I'm curious whether these coins were newly mined and kept, or purchased with additional funds? Both are called "increasing holdings," but the actions behind them differ quite a bit. If I were to write a strategy, I would record these two sources separately; otherwise, it's easy to mistake normal mining for an active buying signal. This message alone doesn't reveal that, so I want to check if they have disclosed the source.$BTC volume surge guillotine! The 0.786 Fibonacci level shows godlike power, this waterfall drop is locked in for me! Brothers, what does "perfect script fulfillment" mean? Just look at BTC right now to understand! When I opened my short position this afternoon, how much pressure was I under? The price surged to 81,199, and so many were shouting "bulls are back fast." But I kept my eyes fixed on that 0.786 Fibonacci resistance level, combined with the continuously shrinking volume above, I was certain: this is the main force baiting the bulls! Just now, the 15-minute chart slammed out a volume surge guillotine candle! · Volume instantly exploded to 4 times the average. · Broke directly below the descending wedge lower boundary, smashing through the 80,000 round number. · A large number of long positions chasing the rally were instantly liquidated, causing a stampede. My short position (entry at 80,379) has successfully taken off, floating profits continue to grow. The most satisfying trade is when everyone else is greedy, and you spot that fatal flaw. Tonight, let the waterfall fall a little longer! Did this big bearish candle sweep you out this afternoon? Or did you, like me, catch a big profit? Feel free to chat in the comments!Abandoning the stable pawn of mining, IREN pushes the bishop onto the cloud diagonal—if this move is miscalculated even half a step, the entire game’s outcome flips. I have seen too many such transitions from the grandmaster’s seat: the costliest move in the midgame is re-pricing your own pieces. Bitcoin mining is more like a rook in the endgame—stable, visible, and directly capturing pieces; cloud computing power services are like a passed pawn yet to be promoted, whose value is not in the present but in the control of the board ten moves ahead. What IREN is doing is exchanging the rook for two bishops on diagonals and a pawn ready to promote: GPU clusters are its bishops, and data center delivery is every step advancing toward promotion. The November 5 earnings report is like a public reveal, not just ordinary numbers. What does it reveal? The coordination of three lines: the real pace of computing power delivery, the slope of cloud revenue growth, and the intensity of capital expenditure realization. These three lines must interlock on the game record. If computing power delivery lags behind capital expenditure, it’s like pushing a pawn on the flank without piece support—an isolated pawn hanging on the open line; if cloud revenue climbs faster than delivery, that’s a good move, but it also means the next round of capital expenditure will be fiercer, and the board will open faster. I’m especially watching the capital expenditure square. Computing power gained through heavy assets is a strong piece, but once it loses its foothold, it becomes a hanging piece vulnerable to opponent attacks. The market often gives full marks on delivery progress but deducts points on depreciation and interest—this discrepancy is where tactical combinations most easily falter. Then there’s $xINTC. This type of tokenized asset is like a remote pawn: its linkage to the main board is real, but its liquidity depth is insufficient to support a full tactical strike. If the main board delivers a check, this piece is lost; if the main board pauses, this piece becomes a repeatedly probed weak square. A true chess player won’t use it to attack, only to hedge or simply to observe how others miscalculate. After November 5, the board will give three signals: whether computing power delivery follows the planned moves, whether cloud revenue forms continuous checks, and whether capital expenditure continues to accelerate. If all three advance together, IREN officially steps from the mining endgame into the cloud computing midgame; if any misstep occurs, the market will use a tactical combination the next trading day to knock it off the diagonal. I can wait ten moves for a good sacrificed piece, or clear the board within three moves for a bad passed pawn; the difference lies only in whether I have calculated all the opponent’s responses before making the move. #irenq1aiclouddelivery $NEAR has risen about 7% in the past two days, and trading volume has also significantly increased, but what I think is more worth paying attention to than the price rise is its plan to continue reducing token issuance. Here's the situation: the NEAR community just passed a governance proposal to gradually lower the annual issuance cap from 2.5% to 1.6% over the next 24 months. According to the proposal's estimates, about 11.8 million fewer NEAR tokens will be issued over the next two years.A financial report is like a structural inspection report after a building is completed—the more polished the facade, the more you need to use ultrasound to detect voids inside the load-bearing walls. Circle's building had a truly impressive facade in Q3: total revenue and reserve income rose 17% year-over-year to $865 million, and net profit from continuing operations increased 5% to $226 million. But those who really understand the business never look first at the curtain wall; they look at the foundation settlement monitoring points. USDC on-chain transaction volume surged 49%, which is like the foot traffic on the ground floor—busy and visually appealing, representing the live load. However, reserve income dropped 8%, down to $658 million—that's the real bearing layer. The decline in reserve asset yield is equivalent to the soil layer beneath the foundation softening, quietly weakening the bearing capacity. The higher you build above, the more concentrated the stress at the bottom; this structural issue cannot be compensated by foot traffic. Then look at the $182 million revenue from the token presale tied to the Arc blockchain, which supported most of the other income growth this quarter. From an engineering perspective, this is like a newly topped-off annex podium with a nice cash flow; but is it an earthquake-resistant integral part sharing the main building's foundation, or just a sales office temporarily supported and waiting for inspection? You can't tell from the blueprints—you have to wait for the settlement data to speak. More importantly, the shear wall of the profit model is shifting—from a foundation bearing mode "eating reserve interest" to a cash flow mode "selling new presale units." The former looks at the thickness of the bearing layer; the latter depends on whether the market is willing to keep buying your presale certificates. The market linkage of $XCH is essentially like vibration transmission caused by pile driving on adjacent plots: not the same building, but the resonance frequency doesn't lie, and the shear wave velocity of the foundation soil will reveal the true stiffness. When a building's operating cash flow starts to rely on newly launched presale units rather than the original foundation's bearing capacity, the structural engineer should recalculate the safety factor of the entire building—instead of standing downstairs celebrating that the curtain wall has two more layers installed. #circleq3usdcvolumeup49%$NEAR has risen about 7% in the past two days, and trading volume has also significantly increased, but what I think is more worth paying attention to than the price rise is its plan to continue reducing token issuance. Here's the situation: the NEAR community just passed a governance proposal to gradually lower the annual issuance cap from 2.5% to 1.6% over the next 24 months. According to the proposal's estimates, about 11.8 million fewer NEAR tokens will be issued over the next two years. Seeing Circle's earnings report "exceed expectations," my first question was: Does that mean USDC is going to rise? Later I realized I was asking the wrong question. Circle's Q3 2026 earnings report: total revenue and reserve income grew 17% year-over-year to $865 million; net profit from continuing operations grew 5% to $226 million, exceeding market expectations. On-chain USDC transaction volume grew 49% year-over-year. But there is also a less favorable point in the report: reserve income fell 8% year-over-year to $658 million. The reason is the decline in yield on reserve assets. I thought about the relationship between these things: Circle is a company with stock (CRCL); USDC is the stablecoin it issues. The company makes money mainly from interest on reserve assets and transaction volume, not from USDC price increases—stablecoins are pegged to $1 and cannot rise. The 49% increase in transaction volume and the 8% drop in reserve income are actually two different things: one indicates more users, the other indicates a worse interest-earning environment. But neither is a reason for "USDC to rise," nor a guarantee that "CRCL stock will definitely rise." As a beginner, I first separate these three things when looking at earnings reports: Is the business growing? Is the company profitable? Will my assets be affected? These three questions often do not sync up. Do you usually use stablecoins as a payment tool or hold them as an investment? I lean more toward the former.#索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 Sony's Q2 operating profit surged 45%, and the full-year performance forecast was raised. This is more of a sentiment and sector boost for the crypto market rather than direct support. Sony's cash flow is more abundant, enabling continued support for its Ethereum Layer2 Soneium, benefiting the blockchain gaming, IP‑NFT, and GameFi sectors, which can easily drive short-term speculation in related thematic tokens; the improved profitability of this global tech leader will also slightly raise market risk appetite, indirectly supporting high-risk assets like Bitcoin. However, it should be clear: Sony does not plan to make large purchases of Bitcoin. Blockchain is currently just a pilot business and is unlikely to generate immediate profits. Such narratives from big companies tend to overextend hype prematurely, and if implementation falls short of expectations, the positive impact is likely to be fully priced in.Regulatory blocking high pressure is hovering over the Aurora reactor, the commercial cumulonimbus clouds have not yet dispersed, and the dry cold front of capital expenditure has already touched the power distribution cabinet of the AI data center — this is the current most critical isobar line to watch. Oklo's Q3 results are expected to be released in early to mid-November. The forecast period is not long, but the sounding data is crucial. The power cooperation between Aurora advanced nuclear reactor and AI data centers acts like a warm and moist conveyor belt, continuously humidifying and warming the demand side; however, commercial operation is still stuck at this regulatory approval blocking high pressure, the system moves slowly, and any project update depends on whether it truly breaks through the high-pressure ridge. Construction, financing, and cash burn are the terrain turbulence and wind shear: the former raises the bumpiness index during the construction phase, while the latter acts like a continuous dry cold advection, weakening thermal conditions. Project milestones and burn rate are the next radar echoes; the strength of these echoes determines whether the market continues to push out sunny expectations or hears the thunderstorm early. XCRCL, as a US stock token, has a linkage logic more like offshore waves driven by an offshore storm: the parent expectation determines the wave direction, and the token's thin order book amplifies gusts. If the financial report releases clear signals on approval milestones, financing arrangements, and construction progress, the pressure gradient will steepen rapidly, and offshore waves will rise with the offshore system; if there are only verbal project updates without visibility on cash flow and approvals, the isobar lines are sparse, the wind may not be strong, but the sea fog will be heavy, making prices more prone to oscillate in low visibility. The focus is not on daily wind direction but whether volume, bid-ask spread, and capital sentiment synchronously form a sustained wind field; otherwise, it is just local thermal convection. Duty judgment: The approval blocking high pressure has not collapsed, the cash burn cold front has arrived, and XCRCL offshore gusts arrive before the commercial sunny day. #okloq3nuclearoutlookThe easiest thing to misinterpret this time might not be the rise of INJ, but the statement "ETF has already brought in institutional funds." Nasdaq has approved Canary's Staked Injective ETF listing application, with the ticker INJC. The news sounds impressive, but approval for listing does not mean it can be bought yet; the official trading start date has not been announced, and the custody and validator allocation details have not been clarified. is treat all rises as bull market restart. Today not chasing gainers list, talk about a more worth observing clue: can public chain traffic convert into real financial demand? First look at SOL. Solana already carries trading, payments and various on-chain assets, but price elasticity big, doesn't mean app revenue grows synchronously. Next I look at three things: whether stablecoin transfer scale continues, whether real users return, whether on-chain fees are propped up by few hot trades. Risk aThe Nasdaq rose 1.44%, while the three major storage companies fell between 5% and 8% Within the same index, some rise while others fall. This is not a market error. Here's how the number is calculated: the Nasdaq is weighted. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple hold the majority; when they rise, the index goes up. The storage companies have a smaller share, so even if they fall, they can't drag down the index. Who's on the opposite side here: those buying cloud giants are using cash flow money. They don't rely on building new data centers, and even with tighter approvals, they still profit. Those buying storage are betting on capacity expansion; if expansion slows, order expectations are revised downward. Looking further, storage orders are tied to new computing power construction. If new data center approvals slow, demand gets cut first. What gets cut is expectations, not machines already installed. The storage cycle script hasn't changed: shortage, expansion, supply increase, valuation cut. This round, whether new data center approvals are stuck first or the old script is playing out again, we'll see with the next batch of expansion announcements. #Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 #$ETH After reading, I noted three things: 1. Bitcoin $BTC remains above $80,000, currently around $80,250, up about 2.5% in the past 24 hours. However, I prefer to view this rebound as a correction caused by short covering rather than a confirmed start of a new upward trend. 2. In the past 24 hours, crypto futures liquidations reached $715 million, about 65% from shorts, while Bitcoin open interest increased by only 0.3%. The price went up, but the open interest did not significantly follow, indicating that the strength of new long positions still needs verification; focusing only on the price increase can lead to overexcitement. 3. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $74.6 million on Wednesday, ending three consecutive days of net outflows. This is a somewhat positive signal in my view, but a single day turning positive cannot prove a reversal in the capital trend. I will separate the warming sentiment from sustained capital inflows and will closely watch ETF flows and open interest changes going forward.SOL accounts require funds, SLX admission requires tokens, AAVE interest rates will turn $SOL 96.77, up 6.1% in the last 24 hours, cheap and easy to use but occupancy must be considered 🧱 On-chain accounts store data and need to deposit a certain amount of SOL as refundable balance. When the account is closed, it can be retrieved, which is different from permanent destruction. What I care more about: how much continuous occupancy new accounts leave, and which are just short-term interactions. Lower usage thresholds can attract applications, but a large number of accounts does not automatically mean more SOL is permanently taken out of circulation; demand depends on usage patterns. $SLX 0.04161, up 7.1% in the last 24 hours, staking must have practical use 🔐 Staking into stSLX temporarily removes the corresponding SLX from tradable status; credit qualifications and some product permissions are also related to holding and locking arrangements. I care more about whether locking is to solve real needs. Useful qualifications can cause tokens to be continuously occupied, while relying solely on rewards requires additional incentives to maintain. Recovery is not bad; supply still needs to distinguish total amount, circulating supply, and voluntary lock-up. $AAVE 133.18, up 6.0% in the last 24 hours, high interest rates are not entirely good news 🏦 The more funds borrowed from the lending pool, the higher the interest rate usually is; after exceeding the target utilization rate, the increase accelerates. This prices tight liquidity. So I won’t just use high deposit rates to prove business prosperity. Borrowing demand, withdrawable balance, and whether borrowers can bear the cost must be considered together. Having a lot of money deposited is not the same as having a lot of money lent out.Bitcoin rebounded to 80,000 after the election results came out, but on the same day, someone in the industry directly said: the CLARITY bill is "most likely dead." First, the facts: the Democrats took both houses of Congress, with the Senate currently at 54 to 44. CertiK's head of government affairs judged that whether it's the lame-duck session at the end of the year or the next Congress, this crypto market structural bill will have a hard time passing. He also expects Warren and Waters, two well-known crypto critics, to possibly chair the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee, respectively. My view: what the market bought today was falling oil prices and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, not regulatory optimism. Short-term sentiment relies on macro factors; mid-term depends on whether the compliance path slows down. There is also non-farm payroll data on Friday, so the market may not go smoothly. For ordinary people, I would separate "whether there is clear legislation" from "whether the coin price rises," so don't think policy risks are gone just because prices rose today. Do you think the bill is really dead, or will it come back in another version? #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 $BTC #摩根士丹利接入DTCC，证券代币化拓展机构应用 Morgan Stanley has connected to DTCC's tokenization service, becoming one of the first 20 signed institutions at the launch on October 28. On November 3, it confirmed that it had converted U.S. stocks and government bonds into tokenized forms. The mechanism is straightforward: DTC custodians the securities and mints tokens backed 1:1, with ownership and investor protections identical to the original securities. Tokens can be transferred 24/7 between registered wallets but only on the same chain, with a goal to complete conversion back to traditional form within 15 minutes. Currently, this runs on the Canton Network and DTCC's private Besu network, with plans to support more chains by 2027. However, two things must be distinguished. Morgan Stanley uses DTS to "move existing assets on-chain," which is backend settlement and collateral management. Its own tokenized stock ATS aimed at trading has been postponed to Q1 2027, citing product immaturity and lack of client demand. So this current move is one step short of "buying and selling stocks on-chain." DTCC custodians assets exceeding $114 trillion, initially covering 34 securities, with JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Bank of America, Fidelity, and Castle Securities among the signatories. The underlying infrastructure is being laid out, but few vehicles are running on it yet; Morgan Stanley's step is a placeholder, not a charge forward.The non-farm payroll expectations are somewhat bearish; could the BTC and ETH rebound just be the last lift before a waterfall? From a bearish perspective, this rebound hasn't eliminated the uncertainty brought by macro data. As the non-farm payroll approaches, if employment data exceeds expectations and the market reprices a tighter liquidity environment, risk asset sentiment could quickly cool down. As of 2026-11-05, BTC spot is about 79,908 USDT, up 2.09% in 24 hours, but the daily MACD remains in a weak structure after a death cross, the super trend stays downward, and volume is only 0.53 times the 7-day average; the rebound has price but lacks sufficient volume expansion. ETH is about 2,404 USDT, up 3.66% in 24 hours, MACD just formed a golden cross, but the super trend is also downward, with large net capital outflows, indicating short-term recovery alongside medium-term pressure. I will focus on the dollar and risk appetite reaction after the non-farm payroll release: if the data strengthens tightening expectations and BTC cannot maintain the recent rebound momentum, volatility may increase; conversely, if the data eases and volume rises synchronously, the bearish narrative needs to be wary of being squeezed. The so-called "waterfall" is not inevitable; the key remains whether macro expectations, volume, and capital flow can resonate together. Last night’s US stock market completely revealed its bottom cards. Although the election is lively, it means nothing in the face of the real macro test. Look at what Morgan Stanley and Cramer say: the election hasn’t overturned the business cycle at all; what really dominates the market are still interest rates, profits, and AI debt. The strangest scene in the market right now is the big divergence within tech stocks. Microsoft and Apple surged, even hitting new highs; but Nvidia and AMD, the sellers of the shovels, are getting beaten down. Why? Because the money is betting that the hyperscale cloud providers will cut AI capital expenditures. The logic is simple: if Microsoft and Amazon spend less on building data centers, their profits and cash flow look better, so their stocks rise; but if they stop buying cards, hardware sellers like Nvidia and AMD naturally have to fall. This shows the market’s tolerance for AI’s bottomless pit of spending has reached its limit. But this is just the appetizer; the real battlefield is tomorrow night (Friday) with the nonfarm payrolls. The probability of a rate hike in December has already hit 82%! The ADP preliminary data added 86,000 jobs, much stronger than expected. The market is now very afraid that the nonfarm payrolls will also blow past expectations. If the data is strong, the Fed’s confidence to raise rates will harden, US Treasury yields will soar, and it will be a heavy blow to the tech stocks and Bitcoin that just caught a breather. If the data is weak, this rebound can continue. In short, the current game is all about macro funds wildly betting against each other. Bitcoin hovering around 76,000 is also on edge. In terms of trading, absolutely don’t bet on a one-sided move in the nonfarm payrolls. It’s a battle of gods, with sharp spikes up and down $BTC Down 59% this year, then a financial report after hours surged back 36% overnight AppLovin Q3 revenue $2.185 billion, up 55% year-over-year Net profit $1.439 billion, up 72% year-over-year For every $100 earned, $66 is net profit EPS $4.30, beating the expected $4.03 Q4 guidance $2.365-$2.395 billion, also higher than the expected $2.25 billion The board also increased the buyback authorization by $3.2 billion I think this is not an advertising recovery, but AI models starting to print money for it The failure point would be if Q4 guidance falls short or net profit margin drops below 50% Which side are you on: can the 66% net margin hold, or is this just a rebound from being oversold? $APP $META #美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压 Breaking through 80000, should I chase or wait for a pullback? Last night I almost scolded myself for being cowardly—just after saying 78700 was the next stop, it pierced through 80000 directly. After the US stock market surged following the midterm election results, the Dow rose 3.03%, the S&P 500 rose 1.58%, and the crypto market followed the surge overnight: BTC hit 79345 at 10 PM on the hourly chart, then touched 81200 at 11 PM, and this morning it still stands around 80530, up about 4.3% in 24 hours; ETH at 2420 is up about 6.4%, SOL at 95.77 is up about 3.6%. My inclination is: this move above 80000 is not just a quick touch and run; it surged overnight and didn’t fall back all night, and this morning it’s still hovering above 80500, which is completely different from the previous days when it touched 78000 and slid back. On the flip side, we have to admit: with such a big gain in one day, chasing the high is the easiest way to get hit; if it really falls back below 80000, the 81200 spike will become a bull trap, and if I then call a reversal, I’d be too shameless. So this morning I ask honestly: do you think standing above 80000 means you should chase, with the next target at 81200 and beyond, or do you think it’s better to wait for a pullback to 80000 to stabilize before acting, and if it breaks 80000, avoid it completely? Just a market record, not investment advice $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ A company that hasn't yet mass-produced robots has today received a $2.5 billion valuation. Agility Robotics completed a merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI and will be listed on Nasdaq on November 5 under the ticker AGLT, expecting to raise about $465 million. This is not a traditional IPO but a SPAC: a shell company goes public first to raise money, then finds a target to merge with. The process is fast and disclosure requirements are relatively relaxed. Robot companies prefer this route because every step of mass production, production lines, and supply chains consumes cash, and they can't afford to wait a year and a half in line. What’s even more noteworthy is the backers. Nvidia and Amazon are both on the shareholder list. One sells computing power, the other manages warehousing and logistics; neither is a pure financial investor. They need real humanoid robot customers to validate their infrastructure. Agility’s listing effectively brings these two companies’ robot strategies into the public market spotlight. What does this mean for the crypto market? In the past two years, AI concepts like $TAO and $FET have risen on expectations, not revenue. A $2.5 billion valuation shows that traditional capital is willing to pay a premium for this direction, which can provide emotional support for the on-chain robot narrative. But premium and revenue are two different things; company valuation cannot be converted into a target price for any token. One question remains: when humanoid robots truly begin mass production and delivery, who will make the money—the robot manufacturers or those selling computing power and electricity?#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 Previously, Americans trading stocks either bought the spot market or options and futures with expiration dates. Now the CFTC has given the green light, allowing Nadex to launch its first batch of products, directly using giants like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla stocks as underlying assets to create “perpetual futures.” What does perpetual mean? It’s exactly like the USDT-margined contracts in our crypto world—no expiration date, settled in spot cash, and you can hold as long as you want. This was originally an exclusive playstyle in crypto, and now it’s directly brought to Wall Street. My personal view is: these traditional old money folks are really getting anxious. Look at the news: traditional market maker giants like Cboe and Citadel Securities immediately teamed up to sue the CFTC and even applied for a temporary restraining order. Why? Because it hits their core cheese! If everyone starts playing these 24/7, no-expiration perpetual contracts, who would still trade their traditional derivatives that close after hours? Essentially, this is a dimensionality reduction strike by crypto trading styles against traditional trading models. This lawsuit can only block compliant domestic US platforms; if trading volume is restricted, it will ultimately flow to offshore on-chain perpetual platforms like Hyperliquid. Isn’t this clearly a big gift to on-chain DeFi? No wonder OKX and ICE previously cooperated on on-chain contracts, and HYPE surged against the trend. The tug-of-war between Wall Street and regulators is ironically tailoring a wedding dress for decentralized protocols. What’s the impact? $SNDK SNDK took a pretty hard hit today, currently priced at 981.6, dropping nearly 5 points directly. The reason for the decline is clearly stated in the market news: the market is worried that the recovery pace of the storage cycle will not meet expectations, coupled with a sell-off in the semiconductor sector and election-related uncertainties, causing funds to flee for safety first. Additionally, the bulls are now crowded to an absurd degree, with a long-short ratio hitting 9.3, meaning 90% of accounts are long. As soon as the price moves down, it continuously triggers long stop-losses, and the stop-loss orders keep pushing the price down further, creating a stampede and amplifying the decline. From the candlestick chart, it has long been suppressed by moving averages, with MA20 and MA50 pressing from above. Every small rebound fails to break through, gradually accumulating downward momentum. Short-term resistance: first resistance at 1006 (MA20), second resistance between 1009-1020. This range is the previous consolidation platform; to reverse the weakness, the price must hold firmly here to have a chance. Support is at the recent low of 976.6; if this level doesn't hold, the price will continue to probe lower. The current situation is quite awkward: fundamentals are weakening, but the market is full of bottom-fishing bulls holding positions. This kind of crowded bullish market is prone to repeated shakeouts, so don't rush in to bottom-fish hoping for a rebound. Even if there is a rebound later, it is most likely just a correction and unlikely to lead to a direct reversal. It's best to wait for a clear stop-fall signal before making a move. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ Friday at 8:30 PM brings the October nonfarm payrolls, with the market expecting an increase of 65,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. CME shows an 80% probability of a rate hike in December, so the real question is not whether there will be a hike, but whether it will proceed smoothly. If the number lands between 65,000 and 70,000 and hourly wages don’t spike month-over-month, it will be like pushing the current momentum, solidifying the "80%" probability to "90%". If it’s too strong, exceeding 100,000, the rate hike expectation is reinforced, but risk assets will take a hit first. If it falls below 30,000, the confidence for a December hike will weaken. ADP reported 86,000, JOLTS vacancies are rising, layoffs remain low; the job market is in a stalemate of "low hiring, low layoffs," not a sign of collapse. As long as employment doesn’t collapse, the rationale for action in December remains. We’ll see the verdict on Friday.WLFI dropped 5.59% in the past hour, yet the number of open contracts increased by 2.29%. From 19:00 to 20:00 on OKX, spot trading volume was about $684,500, which is 7.46 times the average of the previous six hours, with the price falling from 0.04654 to 0.04394. The number of open contracts rose from 17.3607 million to 17.7577 million. I tend to interpret this movement as a volume-increasing decline with leverage continuing to enter. The growth in open interest only indicates a net increase in new positions, without distinguishing between long or short, so it is not yet sufficient evidence to directly regard the drop as a short victory. Next, I will watch the hourly low at 0.04357 and the starting point at 0.04654. If the price breaks below the low again and open interest continues to rise, the risk of overcrowding will increase; if the price recovers to the starting point and spot trading volume remains elevated, the bearish view needs to be reassessed. $WLFI November 2 Crypto Market Evening Report: The U.S. election has concluded, and risk assets have caught a breather. $BTC briefly broke above $81,000, currently around $80,500; $ETH has returned above 2,400. Market sentiment has shifted from "panic" back to "neutral." But the foundation of this rebound is weak: Nearly $1 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with shorts liquidated at $577 million, including $310 million in BTC shorts alone. A typical short squeeze scenario. Two conflicting signals to watch out for: 1. Funding rates have turned negative: hitting a nine-month low, indicating shorts are still stubbornly resisting, and longs have not regained pricing power. 2. ETF internal divergence: although the total volume has turned positive, BlackRock's IBIT has declined for four consecutive days. The recovery relies entirely on teammates like Fidelity to fill the gap. Local highlight: ZEC surged over 12% against the trend due to this week's NU7 upgrade (speeding up to 25 seconds/block) expectations. The election only provided an excuse for the rebound; a short squeeze does not mean a bull market return. In the short term, keep an eye on the 80,000 support level and tomorrow night’s nonfarm payroll data. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
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